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St. Louis Blues

NHL DFS Goalies and Stacks for DraftKings and FanDuel (Mar. 11)

Joel Bartilotta 2 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to this week’s edition of the Saturday Slapshot. After just 2 games on the schedule last night, we have a massive 11-game slate of NHL DFS tonight. As we are getting closer to the end of the season, we a clear divide between teams still in it and teams shooting for last. We also have some really glaring opportunities for offense tonight.

Let’s dig in and see if we can make some money.

NHL DFS Goaltending

Ilya Sorokin vs. Washington – The Islanders are rolling right now, with a 4-1-1 record in their last 6. Goaltending has been a big part of that as they’re giving up just 1.67 goals per game over that stretch. Their goalies have a 94% saver percentage. Sorokin is riding a modest 3-game winning streak and should be able to add to that vs. an average Capitals team.

Filip Gustavsson vs. San Jose – This is a great spot for Gustavsson and the Wild tonight. The Sharks are just 1-5-1 in their last 7 and have scored a total of 15 goals over that stretch. Their offense is awful these days without Timo Meier and have limited weapons. Gustavsson is also coming into this one playing well. He’s been above 24 DK points in 3 straight. There

NHL DFS Stacks

New Jersey 1 (Hischier, Tatar, Mercer) + Hamilton vs. Montreal

Although they haven’t been awful recently, picking on Montreal this season has often been a profitable strategy. Tonight will be no different. They’re still one of the poorer defensive teams of those playing tonight as they’re giving up close to 13 high-danger chances per game over the last couple of weeks.

We’ll pick on them with the top line of the Devils. Dawson Mercer continues to be the stud of this offense. Over his last 5 games, Mercer has 3 goals and 6 assists for a team-leading 9 points. His 9 points lead the team over that stretch. I’ll look to pair him with Tatar and Hischier. Of the two, right now my lean is to prioritize Hischier as he has a little more goal potential than Tatar. That said, this line is in a great spot and I wouldn’t talk you off a full stack.

Dallas 1 (Hintz, Robertson, Pavelski) + Heiskanen vs. Seattle

Don’t look now, but it appears that the Stars have finally taken the car off of cruise control and are going full throttle. Over their last 3 games, they’ve scored 10 in one and 7 in another. They are firing on all cylinders right now and we’ll want to ride that wave as long as we can. The matchup for them tonight isn’t all that bad either as the Kraken are giving up more than 3 goals per game over the last couple of weeks.

This top line for Dallas has combined for 25 points in their last 5 games. Leading the way on the goal-scoring front has been Hintz as he has 6 goals over his last 5 games. He’s a very affordable $6.4k on DK tonight. Next up will be Robertson. While he only has 3 goals in his last 5, he does have 7 assists. He’s expensive, but he’s playing extremely well tonight and this line should do really well tonight. Both of those are my priority in this stack tonight.

St. Louis 2 (Buchnevic, Vrana, Kapenen) + Faulk vs. Columbus

Michael Hutchison is projected to be between the pipes tonight and that should be music to our ears. He’s an average at best goaltender playing for a defensively challenged team. What could go wrong? No team on tonight’s slate gives up more high-danger chances per game than the Blue Jackets. They’re giving up close to 17 per game! That’s a massive number.

My priority with this stack is going to be former Rangers player, Pavel Buchnevic. Over his last 5 games, Buch has 3 goals and 8 assists. With how bad this Blue Jackets team is defensively, he should be able to set up more goals tonight. I’ll look to do a mini-stack with him and Kapenen tonight. Kapanen has just 2 goals in his last 5, but this is a matchup where he could excel in. He’s also just $3.2k, allowing us to spend up in other areas.

Other Stacks: Car 1 and 2, Stl 1, Fla 1 and 2, NJ 2, TB 1 and 2, Tor 1, Edm 1, Ott 1, LA 1 and 2

NHL DFS Top Value Defenseman

Sebastion Aho – $2.7k on DK
Alexander Romanov – $3k on Dk
Nick Holden – $2.5k on DK
Trevor Van Riemsdyk – $3.2k on DK

Summary

We have a fun day of NHL DFS in store. A handful of the games tonight are extreme mismatches. Really like the spots for Dallas, Jersey, and St. Louis tonight. The Kings are also a team that could explode tonight.

Make sure to use our Projection model when setting lineups.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

2 years ago 0 comments

NHL

NHL DFS Between the Benches for DraftKings and FanDuel (Mar. 13)

Joel Bartilotta 3 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Although there are 10 games on the NHL schedule today, the first 2 games are early and not included on the DFS Main Slate for either DraftKings or FanDuel. So we have ourselves a solid 8 game slate to play with tonight. Tonight’s shaping up to be a fun looking slate

Let’s dig in and see if we can make some money.

Goaltending

Ilya Sorokin ($8K DK/$7.4k FD) vs. Anaheim Ducks – The Ducks were stymied by Nico Dawes last night. Tonight, they face a much tougher goalie in Ilya Sorokin. Sorokin is playing some great hockey right now as he has 2 shutouts in his last 4 and 3 games with 1 goal or less. The game he gave up more than 1 goal was against a potent lineup in the Avalanche. The Ducks have struggled to score goals for a while now. Over the last month, just 2.67 per game. I’m a fan of Sorokin on DK tonight, but he’s almost a lock button on FD tonight.

Sergei Bobrosky ($8.4k DK/$8.4k FD) vs. LA Kings – Bobrosky is currently riding a 4 game winning streak. During that streak, he hasn’t had less than 15 DK points. The matchup for him tonight is a good one and there’s a solid chance he gets it to 5 games. The Kings, while not awful, are averaging just 3 goals per game over the last month. Of all the times playing tonight, that ranks in the bottom 4. Bob should get the W tonight while limiting the damage

Outside of these 2 goalies, I have little interest in anyone else tonight. All the cheap goalies are a big risk tonight, bigger than normal, and I’m just not sure I can stomach going w/ any of them.

NHL Stacks

St. Louis 2 (Thomas, Kyrou, Tarasenko) vs. Winnipeg Jets

St. Louis is clicking on all cylinders right now as they scored 6 against the Rangers on Thursday and then 7 against Nashville yesterday. A lot of that has been due to the play of the second line. Thomas and Kyrou have combined for 15 points over their last 5 games. Both guys are extremely underpriced for their recent production.

Thomas is at $4.3k and Kyrou is at $4.8k. We can certainly add-in Tarasenko to this stack as a lot of the offense goes through him. Winnipeg is in a rough stretch over the last 30 days, giving up more than 3.5 goals per game. With the Blues rolling and the Jets giving up goals, this is a great spot for some offense tonight that won’t break the bank.

Florida 2 (Bennett, Huberdeau, Duclair) vs. Los Angeles Kings

Sometimes trying to guess where the offense is going to come from with the Panthers can be tough. They have one of the deepest offenses in the league. All 3 of their top lines are in play each and every night. Tonight, I’m siding with their second line. This line has combined for 16 points over their last 5 games. The core here for me will be Huberdeau and Duclair.

Huberdeau has been an assist machine. He’s had assists in 14 of his last 15 games and is on pace to set a career-high number. Duclair is also someone playing some great hockey right now. He’s had goals in 4 straight games and has multiple shot attempts in each. With Quick in goal for the Kings tonight, the Panthers should be able to put up a big number. While offense tends to be spread out with the Panthers, this second line tonight should show some fireworks.

Islanders 1 (Nelson, Lee, Beauvillier) vs. Anaheim

The Ducks went with Stolarz in the net last night, so that means we get to pick on the Gibson today. If you read my article yesterday, you knew my love for Jersey was based on Gibson being in net. He’s been bad and hasn’t had a game giving up less than 3 goals in more than a month. He was playing over his head for the start of the year but has come back down to the earth.

This top line for the Islanders has been playing extremely well. They’ve combined for 11 goals and 20 points over their last 5 games. With a great matchup tonight, they should continue to roll. My lean here is Nelson and Lee as they are the goal scorers on the line. Lee has 6 goals and Nelson has 4 over their last 5 games. Oh, and Lee is just $3,500 tonight! Love this spot for an Islanders team that is finally scoring some goals.

If you want to get a little crazy today, play some Flyers. The Canadiens should have Primeau in net tonight and he’s been downright awful at the NHL level this season. He hasn’t played with the Canadiens in over a month, but when he did play, he gave up goals and lots of them. My lean with the Flyers would be the line of Atkinson, Brassard, and Giroux.

Other stacks (Vegas 1, Tampa 1, Florida 1, Min 1 and 2, Nash 1, Col 1)

Top NHL Defenseman

Cale Makar – Outside of Fox, best Defenseman in the league
Devon Toews – 18 shots and 11 blocked shots over his last 5
Roman Josi – 9 points over his last 5, plus almost 6 shots plus blocks
Rasmus Ristolainen – $3.2k on DK. More than 10 DK points in 3 straight games, great value.
Justin Faulk – Always the potential for both a shot blocked bonus and is putting the puck on net.

NHL DFS Summary

I didn’t write them up because I normally don’t play skaters against Calgary, but Colorado is a dynamic offense and can always be in play. That top line is one of the best in the business. This is a fun-looking slate. Hope the plays I laid out help you cash!

When setting lineups, always make sure you are using our NHL optimizer.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

3 years ago 0 comments

NHL

NHL DFS The Saturday Slapshot for DraftKings and FanDuel (Dec. 11)

Joel Bartilotta 3 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Saturday Slapshot. I’m Jared and I’ll be your host. Tonight we have a massive 11 game slate where I’ll be highlighting some of my top plays for tonight’s NHL slate on Fanduel and Draftkings.

Before we dive in I want to highlight some terms you’ll see in my article that may be foreign to you:

Corsi – Any shot attempt (goals, shots on net, misses and blocks) outside of the shootout
Even Strength – Play where both teams have the same number of players (including goalies) on the ice. Includes 5v5, 4v4, 3v3
Power Play – Play where the team has more players on the ice than their opponent due to penalties. Includes 5v4, 5v3, 4v3
Penalty Kill – Play where the team has fewer players on the ice than their opponent due to penalties. Includes 4v5, 3v4, 3v5

Goaltending

Cam Talbot ($7.9k DK/$8.3k FD) vs. Los Angeles Kings – Love the spot tonight for Talbot if he gets the nod. He’s been extremely solid during his recent stretch of hockey. Over his last 7 starts he’s gotten to the 20 point DK mark 5 times. During that stretch he’s played some extremely solid offenses in the Oilers and Maple Leafs.

Tonight’s match up against the Kings should be a much easier task. Kings take a ton of shots but have a sub 10% shooting percentage. Lots of shots + low shooting % means high upside. Talbot is my favorite goalie of the night. Especially on DK where his price is below 8k.

Ilya Sorokin ($8k DK/$8.2k FD) vs. New Jersey Devils – Islanders are big favorites tonight against the Devils. Devils haven’t been scoring too many goals of late. Over their last 7 games they’ve been scoring less than 3 goals per game while taking more than 30 shots per game. That means there are some saves to be had against the Devils. Sorokin has hit at least 30 saves in 6 out of his last 7 games. He should make it 7 of 8 tonight against a team that lacks a solid scoring threat.

Tonight is another Saturday night where goaltending is a train wreck. There are a ton of teams that are on the back end of back to backs tonight and that means we have mostly back up goalies, but at starting prices. I will more than likely stick with Talbot and maybe use Sorokin.

Stacks

Washington 1 (Ovechkin/Kuznetsov/Wilson) + Carlson vs. Buffalo Sabres

When it comes to attacking specific teams, the Buffalo Sabres are almost at the very top of the list. Sabres are currently riding a 6 game losing streak and tonight should make it 7. Defensively, they are one of the worst in the business. Over their current losing streak they are giving up an outstanding 4.5 goals per game. That’s even after giving up just 2 to my Rangers last night.

I expect the Capitals to come out firing after losing a tough one to the Penguins last night. With the Capitals it all starts with Ovechkin. Yes, Ovechkin only has 1 goal over his last 5 games but he also has five helpers during that stretch. He also has an insane iCF of 47. On tonight’s slate only Pastrnak has a higher number. Look for Ovechkin to explode out of his mini slump tonight. You’ll want to make sure you pair him with at least Kuznetsov or Carlson. They are expensive but are in a great spot tonight.

St. Louis 2 (Tarasenko/Buchnevich/Barbashev) + Scandella vs. Montreal Canadiens

In this game we have 2 teams going in opposite directions. The Canadiens are 1-4-1 in their last 6 while the Blues are 4-1-1. While both teams have struggled defensively of late, I’m going to side with the Blues in this matchup because they just have more talent. Both teams have corsi’s of just 44% over the past 2 weeks so we know both teams are going to give up some shots. Blues are giving up 36 shots per game while the Canadiens are giving up 37.

While I love Tarasenko, it’s actually been his line mates that have been putting up the numbers. Both Buchnevich and Barbashev have 5 points over their past 5 games. They are also incredibly cheap on DK tonight and will help us fit the expensive stack above. I absolutely do not mind if you pair them with Tarasenko tonight, but those two will be my priority.

Seattle 1 (Wennberg/Schwartz/Eberle) + Giordano vs. Columbus Blue Jackets

Seattle has been playing much better hockey of late. Over their past 6 games they are 3-2-1. They are also a much better team at home than on the road and guess what? They’re on home ice tonight. Over their past 7 games the Blue Jackets have been extremely poor on the defensive front. They are just giving up way too many high danger chances to be successful.

During that 7 game stretch of hockey they are giving up over 14 high danger chances per game and 4 goals per game. That just screams attack to me. And that’s exactly what I’m going to do. My priority with this stack will be Wennberg and Eberle as the two play together on the top power play unit for Seattle. This is my riskier stack, but they are in a great spot tonight and I’m looking to take advantage of it.

I didn’t write up Anaheim as one of my top 3 stacks, but I absolutely love them tonight if Casey DeSmith is between the pipes. He’s awful and is always stackable against.

Other stacks (Both top lines for Edmonton, Tor 1, Min 1 or 2, Anaheim 1, Bos 1)

Top Defenseman

Morgan Rielly – Toronto Maple Leafs (9 points in 5 games)
Seth Jones – Chicago Blackhawks
Kris Letang – Pittsburgh Penguins
Erik Karlsson – San Jose Sharks
Evan Bouchard – Edmonton Oilers
Mark Giordano – Seattle Kraken

Summary

I mentioned it in my goalie section that we’ll see a lot of back up goalies tonight. With that we should see some high scoring games.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green!

3 years ago 0 comments

NHL Sports Betting Premium

NHL Playoff Preview (First Round)

jamie calkins 4 years ago

written by jamie calkins

NHL Playoff Preview (First Round)

Welcome to Keith’s NHL Playoff Preview (First Round). A little different than my daily game pick articles. The NHL Playoffs are finally here! After a grueling 56-game season we are down to 16 teams. With the nuances of scheduling this year, each team will have a mini bracket within their division and then each team who makes it out of their division will be re-seeded for the Final 4. Not too many surprises with who made the playoffs. Here are the 16 teams who will be playing in the First Round:

We have some great First Round matchups. I will preview each series, post each series price and give my predictions. I will also keep a tracker for my entire slate of playoff bets, as I have some futures on who makes it out of their division, as well as who wins Lord Stanley. I will provide that info at the end as well as some general thoughts for betting the NHL Playoffs. Without further ado, let’s dive into the series.

East Division

#1 Pittsburgh Penguins (-150) vs. #4 New York Islanders (+121)

Season Series: Penguins: 6-2-0, Islanders: 2-4-2

Preview: The Penguins sport the best home record in the league and have home-ice advantage in this series. They should be fully healthy with the returns of Malkin a few games ago and Tanev is projected to be ready for Game 1. The Penguins had a great season and are well deserved to be at the top of this division. The Islanders started of the season very nicely and were battling for first, but things unraveled for them after the Trade Deadline. The Penguins are known for their offense and the Islanders for their defense, but both teams can handle their own on the opposite spectrums as well. The Penguins are 2nd in GF over their last 20 games while the Islanders are 30th. The major X-factor right now is the health of Islanders’ top goaltender Seymon Varlamov. Sporting top-5 goaltending numbers this season, if he is unable to play than the Islanders will have to rely on Russian rookie Ilya Sorokin, who has decent numbers himself but not to the standard of Varlamov. Two teams trending in opposite directions leaves me no choice in my prediction.

Prediction: Penguins 4-1

#2 Washington Capitals (+118) vs. #3 Boston Bruins (-143)

Season Series: Capitals: 4-4-0, Bruins 4-2-2

Preview: What a series this should play out to be. We have the 2018 Stanley Cup Champions versus the 2019 Stanley Cup Runner-Ups. We have the return of Zdeno Chara who spent 14 seasons with Boston and was the longest-tenured captain in the league before signing with Washington as a free agent in the offseason. Each team won 4 matchups against the other this season. The Capitals surprisingly are an underdog in this series, and that must be attributed to Boston’s recent form. They have been a freight train after acquiring Hall, Reilly, and Lazar at the Trade Deadline. The Bruins could not score pretty much all season but then finally woke up the last month. The Caps meanwhile have been battling injury concerns to their star players and also had to deal with the Tom Wilson/Battle of New York saga. The Bruins have been rolling and have been in the top-10 in offensive metrics over their last 20 games. The thing with the Capitals is their underlying numbers were not that good but they could mitigate that with their scoring talent. However, recently the Capitals haven’t been able to do that. Goaltending is also interesting for both teams as the Capitals will roll with the inexperienced tandem of Samsanov/Vanacek, while the Bruins will probably start with Rask but rookie Swayman could make a case for deserving that net. With the Bruins rolling and actually low key dominating their season series with Washington analytically despite it being tied 4-4, I have no choice here.

Prediction: Bruins 4-2

Central Division

#1 Carolina Hurricanes (-240) vs. #4 Nashville Predators (+190)

Season Series: Hurricanes: 6-2-0, Predators: 2-5-1

Preview: The Hurricanes have dominated this season series over Nashville winning 6 of 8. The Predators snuck into the playoffs on the curtails of Juuse Saros incredible goaltending. The Hurricanes offense has been rolling all season and there is no reason to see that slowing down here. A hot goaltender can change the complexion of a series, no doubt. But Saros will need to stand on his head to steal this one from Carolina. Nashville held their own in their matchups against Carolina this year despite only winning 2 of 8. Hurricanes offense, defense, and special teams have been better all season. The only edge you can really give to Nashville is goaltending. And there is a chance Mrazek/Ned can get on a roll and even out that edge. I feel generous to say the Preds won’t roll Carolina, but it wouldn’t surprise me if they do.

Prediction: Hurricanes 4-2

#2 Florida Panthers (+116) vs. #3 Tampa Bay Lightning (-143)

Season Series: Panthers: 5-2-1, Lightning: 3-5-0

Preview: The Battle of Florida. These teams do not like each other and this has the potential to be an absolute battle and best series of the first round. You could argue Tampa underperformed a little bit this year as the defending champs finishing 3rd in their division. But they were without their best player Nikita Kucherov all season and captain Steven Stamkos for the last 10 or so games. Kucherov is projected to be ready for the playoffs so we will see if he can come back right in stride or has some rust. The Panthers on the other hand had quite the season and outperformed expectations to a 2nd place finish in the division. A devastating blow to star defenseman Aaron Ekblad who sustained a season-ending injury with about 15 games to go. However Mackenzie Weegar has picked up the slack on the back end. Goaltending is where Tampa will display quite the edge with reigning Vezina winner Andrei Vasilevskiy in net for the Bolts and probably Chris Dreidger in net for Florida, with Bobrovsky and rookie Spencer Knight there in case Dreidger falters. With the Lightning having some injury concerns and coming off a long cup run, I am going against the grain here.

Prediction: Panthers 4-3

North Division

#1 Toronto Maple Leafs (-275) vs. #4 Montreal Canadiens (+210)

Season Series: Maple Leafs: 7-2-1, Canadiens: 3-6-1

Preview: The Maple Leafs have been viewed as the favorites to make it out of the North Division since Day 1, and are actually the only team with minus odds (-135) to make it out of their division of the entire league. They will be squaring up with a Canadiens team that has been hot and cold all season. They started off really hot and people were even thinking they might be better than Toronto, then went ice cold and fired their coach, before finishing the season relatively strong. Defense is their specialty but they’ve had to deal with multiple injuries on the back end. It’s unclear if they will go with their most expensive asset (Carey Price) or the goaltender who has performed better this season (Jake Allen) for this series. Nothing would surprise me and could potentially see the Canadiens pulling an upset if they get hot, but the Leafs are definitely the stronger team and should take care of this series.

Prediction: Maple Leafs 4-2

#2 Edmonton Oilers (-186) vs. #3 Winnipeg Jets (+150)

Season Series: Oilers: 7-2-0, Jets 2-7-0

Preview: Two teams that are going in opposite directions. Behind the incredible season from Connor McDavid, Edmonton has had a strong end to the season. Winnipeg has been reeling behind all sorts of defensive problems all season, as well as an injury to their strongest winger in Nikolaj Ehlers. Luckily for Winnipeg, Connor Hellebuyck is arguably the best goaltender in the league and the kind of goalie who can steal a series. The problem is the defense in front of him has been bad all year and towards the end of the season he had some games where he didn’t stand on his head. Oilers goalie Mike Smith has actually had quite a surprising season as a 39-year-old veteran on the last legs of his career. With the way McDavid and Draisaitl have been rolling all season, I cannot go against the best player(s) in the league.

Prediction: Oilers 4-2

West Division

#1 Colorado Avalanche (-335) vs. #4 St. Louis Blues (+255)

Season Series: Avalanche: 5-3-0, Blues: 3-5-0

Preview: The Stanley Cup favorite and Presidents’ Trophy winning Avalanche begin their Cup run against the 2018 Stanley Cup Champion St. Louis Blues. The Avs have probably the strongest and deepest team in the 16-team field this year. They’ve dealt with some COVID and injury issues all season but should be healthy rolling into playoffs. This is the biggest series discrepancy based on Vegas lines as well as my Model. The Blues have been inconsistent this season and Binnington hasn’t played to the level he did when they won the Cup in 2018. The addition of Krug in the offseason was supposed to cancel out the loss of Pietrangelo, but it hasn’t been that simple. The Avs are a wagon and even though the Blues have playoff experience, I will rely on the data and the models here.

Prediction: Avalanche 4-1

#2 Vegas Golden Knights (-240) vs. #3 Minnesota Wild (+190)

Season Series: Golden Knights: 3-4-1, Wild: 5-1-2

Preview: Viewed as one of the favorites to win the Cup coming into the season, the Golden Knights have quite the draw in the First Round. Losing the top seed and Presidents’ Trophy with the Avs win last night, Vegas goes from playing a weaker St. Louis team to a young and exciting Minnesota team. To make matters even worse Minnesota has had Vegas’ number all season with only 1 regulation loss for Minnesota in 8 matchups. Vegas is deep at every position and will be interesting to see if they roll out Fluery or Lehner in net, both goalies are more than capable. Minnesota on the other side has been riding the coattails of exciting rookie Kirill “The Thrill” Kaprizov. With stronger than expected defensive and goaltending results they cruised to a 3rd place finish in the division and face a team they have matched up well against all season. There is definite series price value on Minnesota if you are looking for an upset to happen as there always is plenty in the Stanley Cup playoffs. I’m going to ride with the team I am confident can make a Cup run, but would not be surprised either way.

Prediction: Golden Knights 4-3

Current Bets and Notes

My approach for this playoff season is to ride a few Cup futures, bet some teams to make it out of their divisions, and then take any series or series spreads I think have some value. From there I might bet an individual game where I see value on a team or think the other team has a good chance to even the series. I really like taking the Game 1 loser in a series I think will be very evenly matched. I also may hedge some of my futures out if the opportunity presents itself (i.e. Vegas makes it to the Cup, take the other team to win the series and profit either way).

These are the futures I have so far, which will be updated as the playoffs roll on, and will also be on the Sports Betting Picks page:

Excited for the NHL Playoffs! Going to be a roller coaster of emotions with upsets and lots of things you won’t expect, which is what makes it the best sport on earth. Let’s ride this wave!!

Follow along on Twitter @KeithKavJr for the most up-to-date information

Take a look at all of Win Daily Sport’s Sports Betting Articles for the best insight in the game!

4 years ago 0 comments

NHL Sports Betting Premium

NHL DFS Betting Picks (Apr. 29)

jamie calkins 4 years ago

written by jamie calkins

NHL Betting Picks Thursday 4/29

Welcome to Keith’s NHL Betting Picks Thursday 4/29. The Model had another positive night going 2-1. The only loss was the Wild -1.5 which was our calculated risk play at +172. They held 2-0 and 3-1 leads before ultimately losing 4-3. They run it back again tonight, will I take it again? The Golden Knights looked great against the Avs and then the Sharks/Coyotes played a 4-2 game which hit our over of 5.5. Although, it was 3-1 at the end of 1 so they made us sweat it only getting to 6 goals. We take our 2-1 night and move on to Thursday.

We have 10 games on the NHL slate tonight. Let’s take a look at the updated profitability and over win percentages for the teams playing today.

To interact with the dashboard click here.

Dashboard Edges

Lightning Money Line (-162) over the Stars
Rangers Puck Line (-1.5, +220) over the Islanders
Bruins Money Line (-400) over the Sabres
Hurricanes Money Line (-400) over the Red Wings
Wild Puck Line (-1.5, +170) and Money Line (-148) over the Blues
Panthers Money Line (-162) over the Blackhawks
Oilers Puck Line (-1.5, +175) and Money Line (-141) over the Flames

Keep an eye out for Starting Goalies tonight.

My Picks

Penguins/Capitals Over 5.5 (-115): Honestly shocked this over/under was 5.5, could be attributed to Ovechkin or their recent forms. However the Pens came off games against the Bruins (stingy defense) and the Caps with the Isles (also stingy defense). There are other overs at 5.5 with more juice and I like this one the most of them all. The Caps are 2nd in the league on overs and average 6.43 total goals/game. The Pens are no slouches either averaging 6.16 total goals/game. Both teams over win % increases in their current environment tonight, so we are riding this one.

Wild ML (-135): Same logic as yesterday, but a little more conservative just rolling with the money line tonight. I’ve seen this line as high as -158 so I really like the value I am getting here at -135. The Wild were the better team yesterday and gave up a couple stupid goals. Dead even in Corsi and Fenwick in their game yesterday, the Wild had a 61% Scoring Chance percentage and led in Expected Goals 2.53 – 1.58. I like them to win this back-to-back, would be even better if we got Husso in net for STL, although with the Blues in a playoff push I assume they will ride Bing again tonight.

Follow along on Twitter @KeithKavJr for the most up-to-date information regarding the games tonight

Take a look at all of Win Daily Sport’s Sports Betting Articles for the best insight in the game!

4 years ago 0 comments

NHL Sports Betting Premium

NHL DFS Betting Picks (Mar. 8)

jamie calkins 4 years ago

written by jamie calkins

NHL Betting Picks Monday 3/8

Welcome to Keith’s NHL Betting Picks Monday 3/8. An easy 1-0 night for The Model as the Penguins took care of their business against the Rangers winning by a score of 5-1.

We have 6 games on the slate today let’s take a look at the profitability and over win percentages of the teams playing tonight.

To interact with the dashboard click here.

Dashboard Edges

Sharks Puck Line (+1.5, -182) over the Blues
Sharks/Blues Over Goals (6, -114)
Kings Money Line (-124) over the Ducks
Canadiens Puck Line (-1.5, +165) over the Canucks

Keep an eye out for Starting Goalies. The starting goalies are most crucial in the Canucks/Canadiens game as there would be advantage for MTL if we get Allen/Holtby, and a strong advantage for VAN if we get Price/Demko.

My Picks

Free Picks

Sharks Blues Over 6 Goals (-114): We have a dream goalie matchup for this over in Dubnyk/Husso. Both of these teams are top 4 in total goals/game this season and love getting it at this 6 number.

Wild ML +100: Minnesota played two good games against Vegas last week but lost both. The Golden Knights are expected to be without top player Mark Stone and that gives me enough reason to believe Minnesota can come out tonight and get a win.

Premium Pick

Kings ML -124: Los Angeles has had a pretty good streak of games the last couple of weeks before regressing a little bit last week. We have Petersen in goal who has surprisingly been posting better numbers than the netminder confirmed for the Ducks (John Gibson). The Ducks struggle in all areas of play and I think getting the Kings at this number provides good value.

Follow along on Twitter @KeithKavJr for the most up-to-date plays.

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4 years ago 0 comments

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NHL DFS Betting Picks (Mar. 5)

jamie calkins 4 years ago

written by jamie calkins

NHL Betting Picks Friday 3/5

Welcome to Keith’s NHL Betting Picks Friday 3/5. A clean sweep of the board for Keith and The Model last night, going 3-0 in article plays and 2-0 in additional Twitter plays.

The Flyers were the most shocking of the 3 wins in the article. First, Crosby is announced to play after I already took the pick so I hated it. Then they go down 3-0 in the first period, only to score 4 unanswered and win the game 4-3. The Under 7 in the Maple Leafs/Canucks was always in control as the Leafs looked tired only scoring 1 goal.

We have 6 games today let’s take a look at the updated profitability and over win percentages for the teams playing today.

To interact with the dashboard click here.

Dashboard Edges

Capitals Puck Line (+1.5, -235) over the Bruins
Lightning/Blackhawks Under 6 Goals (-104)
Avalanche Money Line (-265) over the Ducks
Kings Puck Line (+1.5, -230) over the Blues
Wild Puck Line (-1.5, +188) over the Coyotes
Golden Knights Money Line (-205) over the Sharks

Keep an eye out for Starting Goalies. I originally had the Blues at -127 on my card until Husso got confirmed for tonight instead of Binnington, now it is a no play.

My Picks

Free Pick:

Bruins ML -135: The Bruins lost in a shootout to the Caps on Wednesday. Washington has been playing better as of late, but Boston is too good to lose back-to-back games. They know this is a battle for first in the division and Boston should be ready to play tonight. Vanacek for the Caps and Halak for the Bruins so no goaltending edge either way. Coyle is out for the Bruins but the Perfection Line (Pasta, Marchand, and Bergeron) is too strong to be shut down 2 games in a row.

Premium Pick:

Wild -1.5 +188: Arizona for whatever reason is really bad at home this year posting -4 units on the ML and -5 units on the PL. Minnesota played Vegas really strong in their 2 recent games, but only earned 1 point total. I think they come out strong to get 2 points tonight and make a statement against Arizona.

Follow along on Twitter @KeithKavJr for additional insight/late adds to my card

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4 years ago 0 comments

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NHL DFS Betting Picks (Mar. 3)

jamie calkins 4 years ago

written by jamie calkins

NHL Betting Picks Wednesday 3/3

Welcome to Keith’s NHL Betting Picks Wednesday 3/3. Another 2-1 night, with the biggest surprise coming in that Sabres/Rangers Under. Four goals in the first period made me think that was a lost cause, only to have one more goal scored the rest of the game and hit the under. The Penguins pumped the Flyers, it happens. And then the Jets did exactly what I thought and took care of business with another poor night from Braden Holtby.

We have 6 games on the slate today, lets take a look at the updated profitability and over win percentages for the teams playing tonight.

To interact with the dashboard click here.

Dashboard Edges

Capitals Puck Line (+1.5, -225) over the Bruins
Maple Leafs Money Line (-112) over the Oilers
Ducks Puck Line (+1.5, -220) over the Blues
Blues Money Line (-150) over the Ducks
Kings Puck Line (+1.5, -275) over the Coyotes

Keep an eye out for the Starting Goalies today. The Leafs get back beauty Auston Matthews and goaltender Frederik Andersen, although they haven’t needed them lately beating the Oilers by a combined score of 7-0 in their past two games.

My Picks

Free Picks

Wild ML +129: These two teams played on Monday with Vegas scoring three unanswered goals to win in OT. Vegas has not looked great as of late and think the books are slightly overvaluing them. The Model shows this at about a 50/50 game which means we are getting decent value on Minnesota.

Avalanche in Regulation -130: The Avalanche are the significantly better team and they just got pumped by the Sharks 6-2 on Monday. This is a clear bounce back game for the Avs, even with a couple injuries on defense, and I like them to take care of business in regulation as there is no value on the money line.

Premium Picks

Blues/Ducks Under 5.5 Goals -114: This game went over on Monday (5-4, 9 total goals) and we played it mostly due to St. Louis’ backup goalie Ville Husso who didn’t let us down allowing 4 goals. Tonight St. Louis is going back with Jordan Binnington. Anaheim hits less than 40% of their overs and average only 4.88 total goals per game (goals for plus goals against). They specifically struggle on offense only scoring 2.01 goals/game. This looks like a good bounce back spot for the under.

Follow along on Twitter @KeithKavJr

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4 years ago 0 comments

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NHL DFS Betting Picks (May 1)

Josh Barzal 4 years ago

written by Josh Barzal

NHL Betting Picks Monday 3/1

Welcome to Keith’s NHL Betting Picks Monday 3/1. An easy 1-0 day after the Blackhawks hit the over (5.5, -110) by themselves with a 7-2 victory over Detroit. Not to mention all 3 Dashboard Edges hit yesterday as well, so we had quite a day. We have 7 games on the slate tonight let’s take a look at the updated profitability and over win percentages for the teams playing today.

To interact with the dashboard click here.

Dashboard Edges

Jets Money Line (-136) AND Puck Line (-1.5, +185) over the Canucks
Ducks Puck Line (+1.5, -225) over the Blues

Keep an eye out for the Starting Goalies today. Not too many dashboard edges today but those two for the Jets are quite significant. The Leafs are hoping Auston Matthews will be ready to play tonight but he is officially a game-time decision.

My Picks

Free Picks

Jets ML (-136): The Canucks have played better of late, but so have the Jets coming off 2 wins in their mini-series with the Canadiens. The Jets top line of Dubois-Schiefele-Wheeler has now had a few games under their belt and you can see the chemistry they’re building. The first game of a back-to-back against each other and the Jets confirmed Hellebuyck in net, we are taking them tonight.

Blues/Ducks Over 5.5 Goals (-103): Ville Husso is confirmed for the Blues which makes me really like this over. He has not had a good year posting a 3.77 GAA and a 0.879 SV%. Gibson on the other hand usually is an elite goaltender but has taken a step back this season. The Ducks have had trouble scoring goals and hitting their overs this year, but I think this is a good spot for them to take some people by surprise tonight.

Premium Pick

Hurricanes ML (-105): The Panthers have had a very hot start to the season while the Hurricanes have had a good not great start. I think the Hurricanes are the better team, and even have a slight edge in goaltending. But with Duclair out for the Panthers and them having to adjust their top line, I like the Hurricanes to take advantage of that spot here and play a strong game.

Follow along on Twitter @KeithKavJr

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4 years ago 0 comments

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NHL DFS Betting Picks (Feb. 22)

Keith Kavanaugh 4 years ago

written by Keith Kavanaugh

NHL Betting Picks Monday 2/22

Welcome to Keith’s NHL Betting Picks Monday 2/22. An easy 1-0 night after the Bruins took care of business against the Flyers in Lake Tahoe by a score of 7-3 including a David Pastrnak hat trick. You knew he was going to have a great game when you saw this picture:

We have 8 games on the slate tonight, lets take a look at the profitability and over win percentage on the season for the teams playing tonight.

To interact with the dashboard click this link.

The biggest edges based on the dashboard are the Puck Line for the Islanders (-1.5, +155) against the Sabres, the Money Line for the Maple Leafs (-182) against the Flames, the Money Line for the Panthers (-117) against the Stars, and the Over in the Kings/Blues game (5.5, -109).

Keep an eye out for the Starting Goalies tonight.

My Picks:

Lightning ML -122: Tampa is coming off a 4-0 loss to the Hurricanes. Not going to overthink this one too much, they are the better team and should bounce back tonight against Carolina.

Kings/Blues Over 5.5 -109: Leveraging the dashboard above, I really like this play especially if Jonathan Quick is in goal for the Kings. The Kings give up a lot of High Danger Chances per Game and Quick has been below average in goal. Both teams average around 6 total goals per game and both teams hit their over > 60% of the time.

Flames ML +155: The Leafs have 3 injuries (Hyman, Muzzin, and Thornton) and the line is probably going to move soon. If you can get value on the Flames around +150 you should take it. Muzzin and Hyman are important pieces to this Leafs offense and should be priced around +125/+130 with these injuries so this is a pure value play.

Follow along on Twitter @KeithKavJr

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4 years ago 0 comments

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