Showdown

Sunday night showdown time ladies and gentlemen! I hope that as you are all reading this you are looking at green screens across the board. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the kick and take a look at our custom projections model to see where we are going to look for our flex plays. So without further ado, here is your WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 17 Vikings at Packers 1.2.

If you were here with us last season you may remember this disclaimer. Do not waste half of your budget or double down on showdown because you had a bad main slate. Unless you get incredibly lucky your best-case scenario is a chopped pot with a ton of people. Just throw a few lineups in and have fun while you have a little sweat going. If you go all-in on a showdown and tilt because it didn’t work out, it is on you.

Vegas Script: Total: 42, Packers: -12

With no Kirk Cousins for Minnesota, this game is likely to get out of hand in a hurry. I know we all joke (and rightfully so) about how bad he is in primetime games but to have (checks depth chart) Sean Mannion at the helm is a flat-out disaster and it reduces our range of possible outcomes by a wide margin and therefore our player pool. I am going nowhere near any of the Vikings sans Jefferson and Dalvin Cook. If they would allow it I would consider fading Vikings completely but that’s a different conversation altogether.

WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 17 Vikings at Packers 1.2 Captains:

Chalk: Davante Adams, $16,500: (18-20%)

Davante owns the Vikings, full stop. Just a month ago he turned 7 receptions into 115 yards and two touchdowns. In two games last year he had 209 yards and five tuddys. Rinse, repeat. So long as Aaron Rodgers is on the field Davante will play well against the Vikings. The only concern you should have is whether or not the Vikings can do anything offensively that will keep Green Bay throwing the ball.

Pivot: Aaron Jones, $13,500 : (9-11%)

Given the likely game script that we will be looking at tonight I think it is fair game to look at both Green Bay backs as core plays and while Jones is still dealing with his knee issue he should be pretty close to 100% so I think his volume will be back to normal in tonight’s contest and the Vikings are a sieve on the ground defensively on the best of days. Now, we are looking at a scenario where the Vikings’ defense will be exhausted due to not getting a breath while the offense goes on a long drive. That sort of things accumulates over a full football game so I think both backs could score at least once on the ground and will almost certainly break of some huge gains.

Contrarian #1: AJ Dillon, $7,800 : (7-9%)

While Jones is perfectly fine as a captain play I will have a little more Dillon personally. I already talked about how exhausted the Vikings defense will likely be. Now we are adding in frigid weather and a man who hits like a sledgehammer when he carries the ball. When the 3rd quarter rolls around Minnesota will not want to get in front of Dillon to tackle him and he could break off some huge chink plays in the tail end of this contest.

Contrarian #2: Aaron Rodgers $16,800: (10-12%)

I will not go crazy with A-rod tonight but I will not completely fade him as captain. We saw what happened last week when the Cowboys and Dak Prescott just kept their foot on the gas while embarrassing Washington leading to Dak’s best fantasy outing of the year. I could see the Packers do the same thing in a divisional matchup, at home, in what may be the last time Rodgers will suit up against the Vikings. This might be one of those games where due to short field situations, Rodgers only completes 24 passes for 208 yards but he throws 5 TD’s in the process.

Contrarian #3: Justin Jefferson, $16,200 : (11-13%)

At his price, with a complete unknown at quarterback, in a road game, in 10-degree weather I do not think Jefferson ends up anywhere near the 11% captain ownership that we are currently seeing. I think he settles into the 6-8% range which will lead me to have a share or two even though I am not so sure that even a man as talented as him can have a ceiling game with so many things stacked against him.

WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 17 Vikings at Packers 1.2 Flex plays:

1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Davante Adams
3. Justin Jefferson
4. Dalvin Cook
5. AJ Dillon
6. Aaron Jones
7. K.J. Osborn
8. Packers
9. Marquez Valdes-Scantling
10. Tyler Conklin
11. Sean Mannion
12. Alexander Mattison
13. Allen Lazard
14. Mason Crosby
15. Greg Joseph
16. Josiah Deguara
17. Vikings
18. Chris Herndon
19. Dede Westbrook
20. Kene Nwangwu
21. Equanimeous St. Brown
22. Marcedes Lewis
23. C.J. Ham
24. Wayne Gallman Jr.

Kickers and defenses:

Green Bay’s defense is firmly in play as a flex and even as a captain to a much smaller extent since I see them being around 10% rostered in captain tonight as the “contrarian” play that everyone flocks to in order to get different. If you do not want to spend much money on the Vikings this evening you could absolutely use kicker Greg Joseph and simply stack your Packers and call it a night as well.

It is time folks and I hope WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 17 Vikings at Packers 1.2 helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the article or anything else, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

Sunday night showdown time ladies and gentlemen! I hope that as you are all reading this you are looking at green screens across the board. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the kick and take a look at our custom projections model to see where we are going to look for our flex plays. So without further ado, here is your WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 16 Washington at Dallas 12.26.

If you were here with us last season you may remember this disclaimer. Do not waste half of your budget or double down on showdown because you had a bad main slate. Unless you get incredibly lucky your best-case scenario is a chopped pot with a ton of people. Just throw a few lineups in and have fun while you have a little sweat going. If you go all-in on a showdown and tilt because it didn’t work out, it is on you.

Vegas Script: Total: 45.5 Cowboys -9

I can tell that Vegas is having a really tough time getting a read on this one. Washington is very much a Jekyll and Hyde team offensively. In the last four games, they have scored 17 in three of them and only 20 in the other ( vs. Dallas). In the two previous they scored 27 and 29 against Carolina and Tampa Bay, then they couldn’t break 10 points in the two before that. This is a tale of two narratives and both present pretty clear paths. Either we are looking at a struggle where you can lean into Dallas’s running game and defense or we are going to have a shootout where Scary Terry and Taylor Heinicke meet for a few big plays and the over is smashed. We say it week in and week out, the story is just as important if not more so than the players you choose. So run a few lineups with each of these narratives playing out and I fully expect you to find yourself in a good spot on the leaderboard when it is all said and done.

WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 16 Washington at Dallas 12.26 Captains:

Chalk: Dak Prescott, $17,100: (14-16%)

At this point Dak, Zeke, and Ceedee are all within a percentage point of one another as the chalk captain of the day But, when it is all said and done, with Zeke still a week or two away from being 100% (his words, not mine), and with Washington being the worst team in the NFL in passing DVOA I think Dak will end up closer to 25% by the time we reach kickoff. I’ll have several shares of him as captain but as is my personal preference I tend to go underweight on whoever is the “big chalk” to leverage the field in the event they have a down game and there is a case to be made for that. While there is a reasonable chance this game smashed the over, Vegas is projecting this game at a measly 45.5 points in a dome game in Dallas. So make sure that if you use him as captain you ensure the rest of your build reflects that “story” that matches him going off.

Pivot: Terry McLaurin, $13,200: (5-7%)

I know Terry has been underperforming as of late but to be fair it is not all on him. Taylor has not been finding him with any accuracy and the volume has been down over the last several weeks. But if you are playing the narrative that the Football Team can get it together and turn this contest into a shootout then a 6% Terry is a beautiful pivot. Dallas’s defense is very aggressive and they often capitalize and turn it into turnovers. They occasionally slip up though, leaving big-play threats like McLaurin open deep and can result in a huge game. I do not see any scenario where Washingon can keep this close without him going off so Terry will be my main pivot tonight.

Contrarian #1: Ezekiel Elliott: $14,100: (13-15%)

In Elliott’s own words on December 8th, his knee will not be 100% for “three or four more weeks”. That leads me to believe that he is somewhere near 90 percent if we are to assume that his recovery from his knee injury has not had any setbacks. In his last contest, he had a roughly 60-40 timeshare with Tony Pollard, and even against the lowly Giants, his yards per carry were still 3.3, almost a full yard lower than his seasonal average and almost two yards lower than his average when healthy. I very much think that Dallas is going to continue to maintain his timeshare in order to maintain his health for the playoffs but if Zeke gets 16-18 YPS and his knee is healthy enough to explode through the holes like the first half of the year he can very easily see himself in the endzone for multiple scores in this contest.

Contrarian #2: Taylor Heinicke, $15,600: (6-7%)

Washington very well may have no run game tonight. Antonio Gibson hasn’t practiced all week and JD is on the IR. That leaves Jaret Patterson and Jonathon Williams as the two most likely candidates to lead the backfield. But may I provide a third option? Washingon opts to run Taylor mare than either of those two and we get extra production on the ground as well as whatever he manages to do with his arm. Yes he is inconsistent on the best of days and yes he will likely turn the ball over multiple times tonight, but we all know that if a quarterback can run the ceiling is immense even when they play poorly (Jalen Hurts anyone?) If we get 10 carries to go along with a score or two through the air then Taylor has the upside from a fantasy standpoint to separate yourself from the field as a captain.

Contrarian #3: Ceedee Lamb, $15,000: (12-13%)

I went back and forth between Ceedee and Tony Pollard as the last choice but with my lean towards the Football Team staying close I will go Ceedee. The talent is undeniable and he has surpassed Amari Cooper as the Cowboys’ #1 receiver getting no less than 9 targets in three of the last four games he has played and 109 total targets in 13 starts. Washington is also the most susceptible team in the NFL through the air so I will 100% be running some lineups

Additional captain plays based on the scenario:

Cowboys win big (>10): Tony Pollard, Cowboys Defense

Washington Keeps it close in a shootout: Dalton Shultz, Ricky Seals-Jones

WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 16 Washington at Dallas 12.26 Flex plays:

1. Dak Prescott
2. Taylor Heinicke
3. CeeDee Lamb
4. Ezekiel Elliott
5. Terry McLaurin
6. Antonio Gibson
7. Amari Cooper
8. Michael Gallup
9. Tony Pollard
10. Jaret Patterson
11. Dalton Schultz
12. Jonathan Williams
13. Adam Humphries
14. DeAndre Carter
15. Ricky Seals-Jones
16. Greg Zuerlein
17. Cowboys
18. Joey Slye
19. Brian Johnson
20. WAS Football Team
21. John Bates
22. Cam Sims
23. Jeremy Sprinkle
24. Cedrick Wilson
25. Malik Turner
26. Dax Milne
27. Dyami Brown

Kickers and defenses:

I am very much interested in the Cowboys defense in this contest and truthfully I do not care which scenario you choose to run in your game scripts. I think that even if Washington scores points there will be enough turnovers and sacks to make them a viable option. It is “sub-optimal” but I do not expect many people to run the shootout scenario with the Dallas defense in the lineup so that is something I think you can leverage in a couple of lineups as a way to make yourself the slightest bit different. I am also “ok” with sprinkling in a kicker here and there although I do not think it is really a necessity to get those cheap points this week as the pricing tonight really is not out of control given the injuries for Washington and the potential ceiling of this game.

It is time folks and I hope WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 16 Washington at Dallas 12.26. helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the article or anything else, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

Sunday night showdown time ladies and gentlemen! I hope that as you are all reading this you are looking at green screens across the board. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the kick and take a look at our custom projections model to see where we are going to look for our flex plays. So without further ado, here is your WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 15 Saints at Buccaneers 12.19.

If you were here with us last season you may remember this disclaimer. Do not waste half of your budget or double down on showdown because you had a bad main slate. Unless you get incredibly lucky your best-case scenario is a chopped pot with a ton of people. Just throw a few lineups in and have fun while you have a little sweat going. If you go all-in on a showdown and tilt because it didn’t work out, it is on you.

Vegas Script: Total: 45 Buccaneers -11

I had a feeling that when this game opened at 48 that we were looking at a potential trap. After several days my initial thoughts are confirmed as the money line is now at 45 and falling. When it comes to the Saints the one thing they do well just so happens to be what the Bucs defend against the best and that is the ground game. I am by no means telling you to completely fade Kamara or Hill but I am going underweight on one of them today (captain only) in part because of Tampa’s strength, but also because in a game like this they will eat into each other’s touchdown equity. I just do not see how the Saints can keep pace for four quarters against the surfeit of weapons on the Bucs offense, but then again we did all witness the Lions smash the Cardinals this week so I barely know what is even real anymore.

Captains:

Chalk: Leonard Fournette, $13,800: (18-20%)

Projections are showing Lenny as the far and away favorite chalk, even beating Kamara by 2-3%. In a vacuum it makes sense, but one thing that I have noticed is that when you are playing single entry contests the rest of the field sees this as well and huge chunks of the field will pivot from the chalk leaving them a little lower owned than what we were expecting. Add in the “Q'” tag and I think what we end up getting tonight is a Lenny that ends up lower owned than Kamara, Brady, and possibly Taysom. This is a beautiful spot for Fournette in a low-scoring game as a huge favorite, so he is primed for another huge workload tonight.

Pivot: Chris Godwin, $15,000: (12-14%)

The Saints do a lot of things well defensively in the secondary but they simply do not perform well against slot receivers historically and Godwin torched them in week 8 with an 8-140-1 line while averaging 17.5 yards per catch. With the absence of Brown and Lattimore presumably staying on Evans I see no reason Brady should not lean on Godwin for the duration of this contest (at least for as long as this stays competitive).

Contrarian #1: Rob Gronkowski, $11,700: (7-8%)

Tight ends in Showdown is a thing in 2021 and there is no reason to not continue the tradition now that we are going down the final stretch with a Tampa team still without AB in a divisional contest. I already touched on the struggles that the Saints have with slot receivers and a lot of the same route concepts will play into Gronks production albeit in a slightly different fashion. I think what Bruce and Tom are going to do tonight to completely mess with New Orleans is to get them on the same side of the ball as often as possible and for the defense to prioritize one over the other. In addition to being weak against the slot, the Saints are bottom four in the league when it comes to defending plays over 15 yards downfield on the right side specifically. There are several combinations where they can use Godwin to clear that area out leaving Gronk open on a seam route where I am expecting him to reach the endzone on at least one occasion tonight.

Contrarian #2: Taysom Hill, $15,600: (7-8%)

I find myself having a difficult time recommending Saints as captains tonight but I would be selling you guys short if I didn’t recommend someone in tonight’s contest. Yes, they will struggle I think but that does not mean that there aren’t fantasy points to be had. In comes ole Taysom Hill. I have never been a believer in him as a QB. He has a big arm and can run. But, he is detrimental to Kamara in the receiving game and he has a habit of vulturing TD’s in goal-line formations. Bad for Kamara, great for us for production. I go Hill over Kamara specifically because I think the Bucs will be more inclined to sell out to stop Kamara or even stacking the box to stop both, giving Hill a few opportunities deep downfield to hit Tre’Quan or Lil Jordan deep downfield for a tuddy or two if he can be accurate tonight. In either scenario, Hill has the best opportunity to be a viable captain tonight.

Contrarian #3: Tom Brady, (14-16%)

The only reason Tom is all the way down as my final contrarian play is that of all the scenarios I see playing out today, the Bucs getting down by any margin large enough to require Brady to throw it 50 times is the least likely. Being 11 point favorites in a game total of 45 tells me that he could very well lack the volume needed to support the type of game script that would cause him to be the top captain on the board. But I would be a complete fool if I did not put him in here as we all know that when it comes to Brady it does not always matter what the script is. If he feels like throwing it he will. So for that reason, he will be in my captain’s pool tonight.

WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 15 Saints at Buccaneers 12.19 Flex plays:

1. Tom Brady
2. Alvin Kamara
3. Taysom Hill
4. Chris Godwin
5. Leonard Fournette
6. Mike Evans
7. Rob Gronkowski
8. Mark Ingram II
9. Tre’Quan Smith
10. Ronald Jones II
11. Marquez Callaway
12. Ryan Succop
13. Buccaneers
14. Brett Maher
15. Nick Vannett
16. Saints
17. Cameron Brate
18. Lil’Jordan Humphrey
19. Tyler Johnson
20. Juwan Johnson
21. Adam Trautman

Kickers and defenses:

When a game total gets below about 46 points I will add a little more weight to kickers and defenses due to the scarcity of points being projected by the experts in Vegas. In this instance, I am 100% comfortable running either kicker out tonight but if I run either defense it will be the Bucs. I expect the Saints to be forced into the uncomfortable position of throwing to catch up for the majority of the game, and while the Bucs secondary has not been impressive by any stretch this season Taysom throws a ton of questionable passes that I think can be capitalized on tonight.

It is time folks and I hope WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 15 Saints at Buccaneers 12.19. helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the article or anything else, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!