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Cognizant Classic Preview: Which Scottish Golf Course has INSANE correlation to PGA National?

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 1 month ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Well, I’ll be the first to say it. WHAT. A. WEEK. We carried on our hot streak, having already successfully tipped Ludvig Aberg to win the Genesis Invitational at 22/1 the week prior, with yet another outright winner! This time, it came on the DP World Tour with Jacques Kruyswijk winning the Magical Kenya Open at 66/1. Not only that, but we also had the golfer who placed 3rd, 4th, and 7th on our card! It was our most profitable week of the year, with full details in the tweet below. All this bodes incredibly well for this week’s preview of the Cognizant Classic, with it’s unique profile and a key comp course providing excellent guidance for this week’s event.

https://twitter.com/deepdivegolf/status/1893660060456513812

At the Mexico Open, our top selection Alex Smalley (30/1 with 8 places) looked the best candidate hitting the final round. On the front nine, he was just two shots off the lead and a potential to make a charge at the title. All came undone on the par 5 12th. After being greenside in two, a dreadful chip shot led to an untimely bogey. It really took the wind out of his sails, leading to another poor chip on the par 5 14th and a score of +4 on the 6 hole stretch.

Smalley wound up in 10th, just missing the place money at +600. Nicolai Hojgaard secured a full place finishing 8th at +800 along with a Top 20 at +240. Sigg and Highsmith also secured us Top 20s at +290 and +310 respectively.

PGA National Course Analysis

We begin the Florida Swing this week on the PGA Tour, as we preview PGA National the host course of the Cognizant Classic. This golf course has hosted the tournament since 2007 (formerly the Honda Classic) along with the Ryder Cup in 1983, the 1987 PGA Championship, and the Senior PGA Championship from 1982-2000. In short, we have plenty of data to go off this week.

Firstly, the move from the West to East coast sees a change in grass type to Bermuda on the greens. As such, you may want to focus more on ball-striking metrics in recent tournaments and identify potential value leverage opportunities for players who generally putt better on this grass type. This will prevalent in upcoming Florida tournaments such as the Arnold Palmer Invitational, The Players Championship, and the Valspar Championship.

Off the tee, premium is given to driving accuracy over distance. With water in play for 15 out of the 18 holes, trouble can be found readily if you aren’t dialed in with the driver. If you can have both accuracy and distance, this is of benefit. However, the key isn’t on bomb and gouge but, instead, restrained power.

Another key statistics at PGA National is SG: Approach. Particularly, we see a huge concentration of shots for SG: APP 150-200 yards. On average, nine approaches will occur from this small yardage bucket. When you consider that the three par 5s will often result in an approach shot of 200+, along with two par 3s over 200 yards, you gain an understanding of why this approach range is pivotal to finding success in the Cognizant Classic.

PGA National Course Comps

Over the years of the Cognizant Classic, we have seen a number of players who have found success in The Open Championship then play well in this preview to the Florida Swing. That may initially seem odd, as few aesthetic links can be found between tropical Florida and the commonly frigid conditions of a United Kingdom “summer”.

I believe the explanation here is two-fold. One, Florida often experiences higher than average wind speeds compared to common PGA Tour spots. This is commonly a factor at The Open (or British Open, if you insist). Secondly, PGA National asks similar questions in a different way. If you stray to far off the tee around PGA National, chances are you will find the water. Similarly, at The Open you will likely find either a pot bunker or extremely thick fescue grass and gorse bushes. Either way, this often results in a penalty of a stroke from an unplayable lie or inability to advance the ball.

Other good guides to PGA National can be found at the other Florida courses, particularly the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort (accuracy and Bermuda greens) and TPC Sawgrass (accuracy, water hazards, similar approach metrics, and Bermuda greens).

On the Korn Ferry Tour, the LECOM Suncoast Classic is also played nearby and offers similar aesthetics. Benny An, Andrew Novak, Maverick McNealy, and Mark Hubbard connect these courses nicely.

This Open Championship Host has Undeniable Links to PGA National

Well, as promised, there is one particular golf which displays an extremely strong correlation to PGA National. And, of all places, it is a golf course in Scotland. That is the host of last year’s Open Championship, Royal Troon.

Firstly, we should discount the eventual Champion Golfer of the Year Xander Schauffele. He has only played at PGA National once. It was his first season on the PGA Tour in 2017 and arrived following four missed cut, a 60th, and 66th. Obviously, he developed into quite a different player to his sole appearance here.

The past three winners of The Open Championship when hosted at Royal Troon were Justin Leonard, Mark Calcavecchia, and Todd Hamilton. All three have also won at PGA National! Further, Todd Hamilton was arguably one of the biggest shocks in major championship history. He was priced at a whopping 500/1 to win the event. He only won one other PGA Tour tournament in his career. You guessed it, at PGA National.

Leaderboard Correlation Between PGA National and The 152nd Open Championship at Royal Troon

Looking at last year’s leaderboard from The Open Championship, here is a brief breakdown of the top finishers and their respective links to PGA National:

Golfer	The 152nd Open Championship 2024	PGA National Success
Xander Schauffele	1st	Only played once in 2017, his debut season
Justin Rose	2nd	3 x Top 5s
Billy Horschel	2nd	5/8 recent starts 16th or better, including 3 x Top 10s
Thriston Lawrence	4th	Never played
Russell Henley	5th	Won (2014), 5 x Top 20s
Shane Lowry	6th	Last 3 consecutive Top 5s (2-5-4)
Jon Rahm	7th	Never played
Sungjae Im	7th	Won (2020), 8th in 2021
Scottie Scheffler	7th	Never played
Matthew Jordan	10th	Never played
Adam Scott	10th	Won (2016), 5/6 recent starts 14th or better
Daniel Brown	10th	Never played
Jason Day	13th (22nd in 2016)	Only played once in 2008, his debut season
Alex Noren	13th	3/5 recent starts 9th or better
Byeong Hun An	13th	4/6 recent starts 21st or better, including a 4th and 5th
Mackenzie Hughes	16th	2nd in 2020, 5/6 made cuts
Collin Morikawa	16th	Never played
John Catlin	16th	Never played
Dean Burmester	19th	Never played
Daniel Hillier	19th	Never played
Shubhankar Sharma	19th	Never played
Sepp Straka	22nd	Won (2022), 5th in 2023
Ewen Ferguson	22nd	Never played
Padraig Harrington	22nd	Won (2015)

Essentially, the top 24 golfers had found success at PGA National if they had played it more than once. It is rare to see two courses with such strong correlation.

This extended to players with little form at other Open Championship venues. Even 2015 Honda Classic winner, Padraig Harrington, put together a solid week despite being aged 52!

We used this correlation to great effect at The 152nd Open Championship, resulting in our most profitable betting week of 2024 gaining +174.89 units.

https://twitter.com/deepdivegolf/status/1815218119314641007

Cognizant Classic Weather Preview

There looks to be little chance of a significant weather wave advantage developing at this year’s Cognizant Classic. There will likely be some overnight rain on Wednesday and, combined with lower gusts Thursday AM, should see those going off first on Thursday have the best of the day. This is especially pertinent for First Round Leader bets.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday are all forecast to play very similar to each other. Prevailing winds should be sustained in high single digits. Gusts will average between 12-18 mph but will be consistent all day.

Cognizant Classic Preview Golf Betting Tips

Thank you for reading my Cognizant Classic preview and tournament analysis. You can access all my golf betting tips and DFS advice in the WinDaily Sports Premium Discord and website.

Every week, our resident experts compete against YOU as part of Team Audience in a live PGA DFS draft. Rewatch this week’s episode of the PGA Draftcast below as we preview the Cognizant Classic from a DFS perspective.

You can watch the episode here

1 month ago 0 comments

PGA Sports Betting Golf

Mexico Open Preview: These Comp Courses are Key to Unlock Vidanta Vallarta!

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 months ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

It’s always a pleasure to cover PGA Tour golf tournaments for you, but even more so after a huge win! Ludvig Aberg duly won for us at last week’s Signature Event at the Genesis Invitational paying 22/1. As we delve into this week’s Mexico Open, it was wonderful to see so much success in the WinDaily Sports Premium Discord.

I absolutely love when we hit a HUGE winner over @WinDailySports ❤️

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Vidanta Vallarta is the host course for our Mexico Open preview

Mexico Open Preview Vidanta Vallarta Course Analysis

Now into its 4th rendition held at this course, we should have a fair understanding of how the course usually plays. And there are some key indicators you can preview which are beneficial to playing well at the Mexico Open.

Vidanta Vallarta is a resort-style golf course. Greg Norman never designed this with any thought to how a PGA Tour golfer may approach the venue. The rough is non-existent and any wind provides the only modicum of protection. Essentially, you will need to score low this week to find yourself with any chance at contention.

Playing as a par 71 at 7,456 yards, pound for pound it is one of the longer tracks on the PGA Tour. Par 4 and par 5 length are the longest on the PGA Tour at a whopping 495 yards on average. The course is at sea level, so it will play the entirety of that distance.

Unsurprisingly, for our Mexico Open preview driving distance is ranked highly. However, the yardage goes further than that simplistic answer.

This also has significant implications for approach shots, particularly for SG: APP from 150-200 and 200+ yards. You will see a high concentration number of long-iron approach shots this week. 65% of all iron shots will occur from over 150+ yards. That includes an additional 2 shots from 150-200 yards and, on average, an additional 1.5 shots from 200+ yards compared to a typical PGA Tour venue.

Finally, no Mexico Open preview would be complete without speaking about the grass. Vidanta Vallarta features paspalum grass tee-to-green. This sticky grass is used rarely in the PGA Tour. It is found in seaside golf courses, as it is resistant to salt air and water. It tends to be very slow compared to Poa Annua, Bermuda, or Bentgrass.

Vidanta Vallarta plays host to our Mexico Open Preview

Vidanta Vallarta Course Comps

Several “Princes of Paspalum” have developed over the years. A huge advantage can be gained in identifying them. This has provided us with huge success at the Mexico Open over the years.

One of the best tournaments to use as a guide for your Mexico Open preview is the Corales Puntacana Championship. Corales Golf Club is another long golf course playing at 7,670 yards for a par 72, with a large concentration of long-iron approach shots, and features paspalum.

The most recent host of the World Wide Technology Championship, El Cardonal, is a 7,452 yard par 72 in Mexico with paspalum. Grand Reserve Country Club, host of the Puerto Rico Open, is a 7,506 yards par 72 again featuring paspalum. Tony Finau is a winner at both events and Akshay Bhatia links these nicely.

The benefit of utilizing these comp courses goes beyond featuring similar topography as other exposed tropical golf courses. Additionally, they are more likely to feature cross-over players given they are typically weaker field events to the more flagship PGA Tour stops.

To find a way to differentiate yourself this week, consider looking at courses used on the Korn Ferry Tour and DP World Tour. The Korn Ferry Tour has two events in the Bahamas, in Panama, in Chile, and the Astara Championship in Colombia two weeks ago which can provide guidance.

Al Hamra should provide a nice course comp as should Royal Golf Club Bahrain from the DP World Tour. Both long tracks have been dominated by bombers, featuring large Paspalum greens with little danger off the tee.

Finally, course history has not been very correlated to predicting success here. This can be partially attributed to the Mexico Open being a lesser field than other tournaments that surround it on the schedule.

Weather

With next to no wind in the forecast this week, the sole possible defense of this golf course is notably absent. Expect the golfers to take advantage as a result and score low.

For purposes of First Round Leader (FRL) bets, I recommend looking at the early morning tee times. Any moisture in the ground is likely to be there first thing before drying out during the day. Further, is any winds are to arrive it will be in the afternoon as is common in golf courses next to the ocean with onshore breezes.

As always, in The WinDaily Sports Premium Discord channel, we provide weather updates right up to the first tee times using premium weather modeling. To make sure you have the best information is essential to finding success. This is particularly important in DFS, where the difference in one golfer making the cut to play the weekend has a sizeable impact.

Mexico Open Preview Golf Betting Tips

Thank you for reading my Mexico Open preview and tournament analysis. You can access all my golf betting tips and DFS advice in the WinDaily Sports Premium Discord and website.

If you want to receive superb DFS and betting advice in golf as well as all other major sports, WinDailySports is the place for you. Undoubtedly, we are already the best value in the game. However, today you can receive a further 50% off our Premium memberships by using the promo code at checkout “DEEPDIVEGOLF“.

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2 months ago 0 comments

PGA Sports Betting Golf

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Preview: DeepDiveGolf’s One Statistic that is a Game Changer!

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 2 months ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Before we delve into our AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am preview, congratulations to Harris English backers at the Farmers Insurance Open. Over at WinDailySports, it is perhaps fair to feel a little aggrieved this week. Our best bet for the week was Ludvig Aberg at 12/1, who opened with an outstanding first round of 9-under. Bear in mind that English eventually won the tournament at just 8-under. Midway through the second round, Aberg’s odds had dropped as low as -160.

And then, the flu happened. Aberg caught the bug going around the field and was visibly struggling on course to just complete his round. 10 players withdrew from the tournament, the majority based on the illness.

It is one of those unfortunate moments that comes when betting on live sport. However, our course comps were completely on point once again and the statistics identified proved very useful in compiling a successful DFS week.

It is a Signature Event this week. This sees a limited field, the best in the game return, and $USD20m in prizes to be won. It is a very important event in the context of the season and a great opportunity to make some money for golfers and punters alike!

DeepDiveGolf: A Proven Winning Track Record!

Also, 2024 ended in our third consecutive year of transparent, measured, tracked profit! Our final ROI was over 10%, with 11 outright winners and profit of over $3,200 when using just $10 per unit.

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Pebble Beach Golf Course Analysis

Our AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am preview marks the last tournament in course rotation season. This tournament will see golfers alternate between Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill Golf Course over the first two days of play. After the cut, the remaining 2 rounds will be played exclusively on Pebble Beach Golf Links.

Given only one round of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am is played at Spyglass Hill, I will provide a brief preview only. As at Pebble Beach, the course is a short par 72 measuring just 7,041 yards. Unlike Pebble Beach, Spyglass Hill is less exposed and features tree-lined fairways. Driving distance is more of an advantage there, but I wouldn’t read too much into that.

The reason is the quirky nature of Pebble Beach Golf Links. Pebble Beach is the shortest par 72 PGA Tour golf course at just 6,972 yards. It sees the largest reduction in driving distance to any other course. Cliffs and hazards determine that it simply can’t be overpowered by driver.

Take a look at the photo of the 8th hole below to see why:

Pebble Beach Golf Links hosts our AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am preview this week

Pebble Beach Golf Links features numerous holes like this. Essentially, all golfers hit tee shots to the same area and play their approach shots there.

The protection of Pebble Beach comes from two key areas. One is the weather. The extremely exposed cliffs are at the mercy of the elements. Secondly, these are the smallest greens on the PGA Tour. These greens are a minuscule 3,500 sq ft, which effectively play even smaller due to undulations and mounding.

Given the small size of the targets, around the green and putting see a boost this week. Golfers will miss greens this week! And the ability to have a superb short game and make your putts is vital to keep momentum.

This Key Statistic is Essential This Week

However, my advice would be that there is one statistic that has the largest correlation to success around Pebble Beach. And that is SG: APP from 100-150 yards.

Given the unique nature of the holes, we see a HUGE disparity in the number of approach shots from this range. Actually, it represents the greatest concentration of shots from a particular approach range we will experience all season.

1/3rd of shots will occur from 100-150 yards and 50% of all shots will occur from under 150 yards this week. Your ability to control your wedges is vital to finding yourself towards the top of the leaderboard this week. It also goes some way to explaining the struggles of Rory McIlroy here. If there is one gap in Rory’s game, it is his accuracy with his wedges. He has played this tournament twice, missing the cut and finishing a measly 66th in his other appearance.

This also supports the correlation with driving accuracy. The key to accuracy with wedges is your ability to control the spin generated. Doing so from the fairway is much easier than when you are in the rough.

Pebble Beach Golf Course Comps

Firstly, note that any prior course form is quite transitive here. This event has moved from a lesser full-field event to a signature event. Given their struggles to attract higher-end players, the field tended to change often depending on individual golfer’s status on the PGA Tour. I do think we can take benefit from players who played well here previously, especially if they have found success when putting on these poa annua greens which can be a little tricky.

The RSM Classic has proven a good guide to the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. It also features two golf courses, one more exposed and another played in-land with tree-lined fairways. Short game is imperative at both courses, and being seaside is another positive.

The other is the RBC Heritage played at Harbour Town Golf Links. This benefits for several reasons. Like Pebble Beach, we see a large reduction in driving distance and focus on placement off the tee. Greens are very small, resulting in precise iron play and short game being over-emphasised as a predictive factor.

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Preview Weather

With two courses in rotation, no tee-time advantage is to be gained in our AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am preview this week. Both Thursday and Friday, morning presents the best conditions. Winds will be lower before picking up in the afternoon, as well as making the most of any residual moisture in the ground which remains overnight.

If you were to draw any potential advantage, I believe it would be starting on Pebble Beach and playing your second round at Spyglass Hill. The winds currently forecast look to be ever so slightly higher on the Friday. As such, golfers may benefit from being a bit more sheltered on Friday by playing the Spyglass Hill Golf Course.

Do check-in to our WinDaily Discord channel for the latest weather updates prior to tournament start. This is always recommended for DFS players in particular. The most affected players are those priced $7,500 and below. That final missed or made cut can be the difference between a huge takedown and a minimum cash.

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Preview Golf Betting Tips

Thank you for reading my AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am preview and tournament analysis. You can access all my golf betting tips and DFS advice in the WinDaily Sports Premium Discord and website.

JOIN HERE NOW
Simply use PROMO code DEEPDIVEGOLF and claim your 50% off today!

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One of the best aspects of a premium membership is access to our premium Discord channel. You will be able to receive one one-on-one coaching with me, as well as ask any questions you may have

I look forward to personally welcoming you into the WinDaily family and celebrating many wins with you in 2025!

2 months ago 0 comments

PGA Sports Betting Golf

Farmers Insurance Open Preview: DeepDiveGolf’s Advice on Why Torrey Pines May Play a Little Differently in 2025

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 3 months ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Before we delve into our Farmers Insurance Open preview, a hearty congratulations to Sepp Straka backers at The American Express. The victory marked his 3rd victory in as many years, a player surely in the frame to again represent Team Europe at Bethpage in the Ryder Cup this year given his immense upside.

WinDaily Sports contributor Sia Nejad was heavily backing Sepp Straka all week. He was duly rewarded with a 66/1 winner as well as a couple of best-round bets at big odds. Well done Sia!

The Farmers Insurance Open also delivered our best win of 2024, as I successfully tipped Matthieu Pavon at MASSIVE odds of 125/1 with 8 places. Looking at our golf course comps below, you’ll understand why we think there is another long shot this year with similar credentials and odds.

Incredible!!! What a win! 🇫🇷

🔥Pavon a 125/1 winner for us 🔥
LET'S GOOOOOOO!
MASSIVE.#FarmersInsuranceOpen #FIO #Pavon #matthieupavon pic.twitter.com/bKtActPEoz
— David Bieleski (@deepdivegolf) January 28, 2024

DeepDiveGolf: A Proven Winning Track Record!

You can find our profit loss tracker for 2022, 2023, and 2024 here.
And DeepDiveGolf links and promo codes here.
Read to the end to grab yourself a deal for 2025!

Torrey Pines plays host to our Farmers Insurance Open preview

Torrey Pines Golf Course Analysis

A reminder from our Farmers Insurance Open preview that we are firmly placed in course rotation season! This tournament will see the golfers alternate between the North and South courses over the first two days of play. After the cut, the remaining 2 rounds will be played exclusively on the South Course.

Given only one round of the Farmers Insurance Open is played on the North course, I will provide a brief preview only. The North Course is much easier than the South Course. Not to say it is an absolute breeze given the prevalent coastal winds (see what I did there), but it is fundamental to take advantage of the minor relief the North course provides. All of the top 32 on the leaderboard last year shot under par on the North course. The worst score on the North course from the top 12 was a 3-under 69, with most going well under that total.

Part of the reason scoring on the North Course is so key is that the South Course is an absolute brute. To start with, the course is just plain long. Playing at 7,765 yards for a par 72, it is one of the top 5 longest courses on the PGA Tour. But that is just the surface of the issue.

Fairways are narrow, measuring on average just 25 yards across. Miss the fairway, and you’ll be greeted by incredibly penal 4in rough which won’t be cut during the event. Greens are reasonably small at 5,000 sq ft on average. They are firm, fast, and undulating. We also have the first instance of poa annua grass, which can be bumpy and difficult to read. This only gets worse as the day goes on, with greens becoming grainier and picking up marks from previous play.

Why Torrey Pines May Play A Little Differently in 2025

Given the above course analysis for our Farmers Insurance Open preview, there are some key statistics you can hone in on to provide yourself an advantage. Driving distance is a real asset at Torrey Pines. It is not to say you can’t be successful if you are short but accurate off the tee. However, your margin for error is small and the path to victory is narrow. Only one golfer in the last 15 years hit over 80% driving accuracy at this course.

Previously, drivers who are both long and accurate have had a stronger advantage. There was one specific note from the Course Superintendent this week which stood out for me. He stated, “This is the driest winter he has experienced in his nine years with the last significant rain event in early April.” This will only make the test even trickier. Fairways will be near impossible to hold for the entire field, as balls will run through on firm fairways into taht juicy 4in rough.

Essentially, I am less focused on any driving accuracy this week. I envision a case where simply being long is enough. Much like Bryson DeChambeau used this tactic to his advantage in the 2020 US Open at Winged Foot.

Along with driving distance, I think the Clubhead Speed is an interesting statistic to consider. The benefit of this is twofold. One, they will be longer drivers of the golf ball. If you are going to miss the fairway anyway, it is better to be closer to the green. This is especially true with greens small and firm. The ability to approach greens with a more lofted club will be an advantage. Secondly, the extra thick rough this week means that a higher clubhead speed will mean a greater chance of advancing the ball.

Torrey Pines Golf Course Comps

Torrey Pines has a quite sticky course history. Winners of the Farmers Insurance Open have usually had a few opportunities to preview the course before finding success.

As a regular US Open venue, and US Open-like conditions this week, you can apply a blank filter on performance at all US Open venues. It was probably a little unsurprising that our 150/1 selection here in 2024 Matthieu Pavon then finished 5th at the US Open later that year.

Quail Hollow, Congaree, and Winged Foot are all akin to the test likely faced by the golfers this week. Part of our success in finding Pavon came from his performance on key long driving courses on the DP World Tour. Emirates Golf Club, Albatross Golf Resort, and Dom Pedro shape as options.

Particularly good guides are found at Jumeirah Golf Estates and Club de Campo Villa de Madrid. Jumeirah Golf Estates is where Pavon finished 5th to pip Rasmus Hojgaard to the post with the final PGA Tour card for finishing top 10 on the Race to Dubai rankings. Pavon had a 2nd and then a win at the Open de Espana, where we also successfully tipped him at 80/1.

Jon Rahm also links those two courses nicely. He is a two-time winner of the Farmers Insurance Open, with a superb record of W-29-5-2-7-W (US Open)-3-7-10. He is a three-time winner at the Jumeirah Golf Estates (with a measly 5th in his other attempt), and has two wins in Madrid with a record of W-17-W-9-2.

💥BOOM! ANOTHER ONE!💥

Mathieu Pavon wins the #OpenDeEspana for us at HUGE odds of 80/1!

Beau Hossler (50/1) and Chesson Hadley (90/1) in contention at the #ShrinersOpen.
Can we get the double?!🤯

JOIN NOW and get 50% off your first month: https://t.co/mmNH8Tk93G #AccionaOpen pic.twitter.com/YQiQqU28h3
— David Bieleski (@deepdivegolf) October 15, 2023

Farmers Insurance Open Preview Weather

With two courses in rotation, no tee-time advantage is to be gained in our Farmers Insurance Open preview this week. However, I do think there is an option to find a weather edge of sorts. Of the opening two rounds, Thursday looks by far the most windy. Winds are set to prevail at 10-12mph but gusts are predicted to top 30mph.

Now, you might think the idea would be to avoid the South Course in windy conditions. However, I take the other route. The North Course is fundamentally key to compiling a score at this event. The South Course will play very tough irrespective of what the weather is doing. Therefore, I would much rather my players for the North Course in the calmer winds forecast for Friday. The earlier that players are out the better for both days, but particularly Thursday when the winds will begin to kick in from approximately 11:30am onwards.

Heavy winds are again forecast for Saturday with a chance of rain and thunderstorms, which may linger into Sunday morning.

The windy Torrey Pines Golf Course, host to our Farmers Insurance Open preview

Farmers Insurance Open Preview Golf Betting Tips

Thank you for reading my Farmers Insurance Open preview and tournament analysis. You can access all my golf betting tips and DFS advice in the WinDaily Sports Premium Discord and website.

JOIN HERE NOW
Simply use PROMO code DEEPDIVEGOLF and claim your 50% off today!

Not only will you be receiving tremendous returns, you are also supporting me and the whole WinDaily Sports team in keeping producing great content both Premium and Free.

One of the best aspects of a premium membership is access to our premium Discord channel. You will be able to receive one one-on-one coaching with me, as well as ask any questions you may have

I look forward to personally welcoming you into the WinDaily family and celebrating many wins with you in 2025!

3 months ago 0 comments

Sports Betting PGA Golf

Sony Open Preview: Why You Should Avoid the Trends!

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 3 months ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Firstly, a very Happy New Year to all our wonderful regular and new readers. And welcome back to full field golf tournaments for 2025!

Personally, I am excited for what 2025 will bring after a couple short weeks of R+R for myself. It was a big year, covering both the PGA Tour and DP World Tour in full as well as moving house twice and buying a new home. All wonderful things!

From my perspective, the FedEx Cup Fall series is improved on prior years. There seems to be more on the line, a final chance for some favourites and regular names to retain PGA Tour playing privileges. But, the reality we all realise is fields are decidedly weaker than what we experience on the rest of the schedule. So, it is wonderful to have a few more well-known names joined by some up and coming talent this week in Honolulu.

Profits were down on 2022 (ROI 24.9%) and 2023 (ROI +32.7%). This is easily understandable. It came down to one golfer, who you might have heard of, named Scottie Scheffler.

When a golfer wins 56% of his tournament starts from March onwards, all as a very short single odd favourite, it makes turning a profit all the more difficult. The vast majority of golf punters ended the year in a loss. So, I am really proud to have delivered this result for our Premium customers in a tricky year.

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Sony Open Trends and Why to Avoid Them!

Every year, Sony Open previews I read will immediately refer to trends. The most prevalent trend will be some form of “8 of the last 11 winners of the Sony Open also played at The Sentry the week prior.” My advice is to approach these with caution. Remember, correlation does not necessarily mean causation!

Is there merit to this claim? Fact is, The Sentry typically features the very best players on the PGA Tour from the year before. So, it’s unsurprising that those who play the Sony Open tend to go off as favourites and, often, win in a typically weaker field.

Certainly, I acknowledge there can be a modicum of advantage gained in having played the week prior. Golfers get the chance to acclimatize and shake the off-season rust.

However, I do believe this trend is over-played. Punters and DFS players often completely end up excluding any players who didn’t start the week prior at The Sentry. That can be seen as an overreaction, to what I regard as a tentative link at best.

Waialae Country Club hosts our Sony Open preview

Waialae Country Club Course Analysis

In poker, it is often spoken about playing the man not the cards. My advice this week is to play the course, not the trend!

Part of my perspective on trends comes from the fact that Wai’alae Country Club is starkly different to last week’s host at the Plantation Course at Kapalua. Arctic references may not seem as applicable in these warm climes of Hawaii, but the courses couldn’t be more polar opposite.

Plantation is huge, both in length of the course and width of the fairways. In contrast, Wai’alae is narrow and fiddly. Actually, Wai’alae Country Club had the largest deviation from normal driving distance of any golf course on the PGA Tour in 2023 and 6th in 2024.

Unsurprisingly, driving accuracy is a strong predictor of success. Much of that comes from the narrow fairways, but also overhanging trees and doglegs in both directions. In 2023, the rough was grown out to 3 inches from 2.25 inches in 2022. Bermuda rough is tough to play. This grass really grabs the club and can produce flyer lies. 3 inches is the longest the PGA Tour have had for Bermuda rough, only previous seen at the Valspar Championship and Arnold Palmer Invitational.

SG: ATG is such a strong predictor of success here. The main defense for the course are the Hawai’i trade winds and this could be one explainer. This may be emphasised with some wind in the forecast and I predict we also see an uptick in SG: Putting instead with softer surfaces easier to hold due some rain.

Approach between 150-175 yards is higher than almost any other PGA Tour courses. 63% of all shots will occur from 125-200 yards.

Wai’alae Country Club Course Comps

Make sure you take a strong look at those who have found prior success at this golf course. The correlation of prior performance as a predictor of future success is the 2nd highest of any golf course on the PGA Tour. Augusta National is the highest, by quite some margin, followed by Waialae Country Club.

Keep your eye on players who have played well on other shorter courses. Particularly, those with dog legs in both directions and by the sea with higher winds. RBC Heritage host Habour Town Golf Links is another narrow test by the ocean, as is RSM Classic host Sea Island GC. Colonial Country Club receives inclusion, given it’s propensity for SG: ATG and similar approach buckets of 125-200 yards.

El Camaleon Mayakoba is a very good guide to our Sony Open preview. The golf course was the prior host of the Worldwide Technology Championship. That was before course designer Greg Norman claimed it back for LIV Golf to use. In 15 iterations of the WWT Mayakoba Championship, 6 also won the Sony Open. Henley completed the double most recently in 2022. It is a narrow test, where driving accuracy is weighted heavily, and is played in a tropical environment.

Weather

To begin, it is worth a preview of the weather forecast before the Sony Open starts. Originally, it did seem a significant weather edge would develop. Thursday look set for thunderstorms, heavy rains, and high winds. This was likely to have resulted in an advantage for those going out Thursday PM/Friday AM, as they were likely to have delays and see those golfers get to play majority of their opening rounds on the calmer Friday.

However, those predictions have largely subsided. Thunderstorms now look set to arrive later on Thursday evening after play has concluded. I do still prefer the Thursday PM/Friday AM times as they will get lower winds Thursday afternoon and softer conditions on Friday after overnight rain.

Make sure you are honing in on the key approach numbers listed above. I also give a boost to SG: ATG and SG: Putting over typical tournaments at Waialae, with a higher likelihood of missed greens and needing to scramble to maintain momentum with par saves.

Sony Open Preview Golf Betting Tips

Thank you for reading my Sony Open preview and tournament analysis. You can access all my golf betting tips and DFS advice in the WinDaily Sports Premium Discord and website.

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3 months ago 0 comments

PGA Sports Betting Golf

RSM Classic Preview: DeepDiveGolf’s Tournament Analysis, Weather, And Advice

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 5 months ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

And, just like that, we reach the final event of the FedExCup Fall in 2024! As we preview the RSM Classic, it always feels a little bittersweet to know we won’t have any full field PGA Tour events until January. However, don’t fret too much. I will of course continue to cover the DP World Tour. And, overall, I’m looking to a slight reduced pace to recover from another magnificent year covering golf.

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There remains a lot on the line at The RSM Classic this week. Most notably, of course, finalizing the Top 125 on the FedExCup rankings and discovering who will retain PGA Tour playing cards in 2025. Some notable names on the bubble this year are popular star of Netflix’s “Full Swing” Joel Dahmen, 2019 US Open winner Gary Woodland, and former Ryder Cup player Daniel Berger.

Sea Island Golf Club Course Analysis

Sea Island Seaside Course and Plantation Course play host as we preview the RSM Classic

The RSM Classic is played in a course rotation, with both the Seaside Course and Plantation Course at Sea Island Resort in-play. Of the two, the Plantation Course is the easier yielding on average a score 1.5 strokes less than Seaside.

Neither course is particularly long. The Seaside course plays as a 7,005 yard par 70. The longest par 4 is just 470 yards (the 18th), with the other par 4s all between 368-452 yards. It has the 2nd shortest par 4/5 length average of the PGA Tour regular stops.

The Plantation Course is also incredibly short. It is a par 72 at just 7,060 yards. This is the 3rd shortest par 72 on the PGA Tour, ahead of only the Palmer Course at PGA West and Pebble Beach Golf Links. Additionally, 623 yards of the scorecard is eaten up on the par 5 4th hole.

Therefore, driving distance makes little impact at the RSM Classic. Emphasis instead falls on driving accuracy, as your ability to find the fairway and set up an approach shot with more control is key. We also see a positive correlation in the short-game metrics as predictors of success. A players ability around the green and with the putter is really where you can separate yourself in this tournament.

Sea Island Seaside and Plantation Golf Course Comps

Prior course form does show positive correlations to success in our preview of the RSM Classic. However, this is less significant than other destinations. I do read this with a grain of salt. The event does tend to have a more transient field, due to it’s traditional spot in the calendar with either upcoming youngsters or veterans trying to retain their playing privileges on the PGA Tour. The simple nature of having two courses in rotation also lends itself to a natural increase in volatility.

Other short, positional courses can be used as a guide this week. The most obvious is the RBC Heritage, with Harbour Town Golf Links demanding accuracy off the tee and an excellent short-game. Harbour Town is also an interesting mix between coastal golf and some holes in land with tree-lined fairways. This provides an intriguing parallel between what players experience at the Seaside and Plantation courses.

Last week’s tournament in Bermuda may not be the worst place to seek some guidance. In addition to providing some indication of recent form, the tournament also had high winds (scroll down for the weather preview) and is another short course where driving distance is mitigated.

Pebble Beach shares some correlation being an exposed, ocean side golf course. Sony Open host Wai’alae is also worth a look for similar reasons, with driving accuracy important and also featuring Bermuda greens. I also considered the Myrtle Beach Classic, also played on the East Coast in neighbouring South Carolina. My only misgiving with the latter is that the tournament did have a significant number of strong drivers manage to find their way towards the top of that leaderboard.

RSM Classic Weather Preview and Predictions

Currently, there does not look to be any weather edge in our preview of The RSM Classic forecast.

What is notable is the high winds and severe gusts currently projected over the first two days of tournament play. Prevailing winds look set to settle in the low to mid teens. Gusts are then forecast to reach mis to high 20s across both Thursday and Friday.

I believe there are two advantages that gained from a preview of this knowledge at the RSM Classic. First, if you are playing round-by-round showdown in DFS then the AM wave should gain a substantial advantage in rounds 1 and 2. The mornings look to have the lowest winds, and will also benefit from slightly softer conditions overnight.

Secondly, we want to increase our weighting even further for SG: ATG and SG: PUTT. It is inevitable when winds are up that players will miss more shots. A sudden, unexpected gust can easily blow a ball off course, leaving an opportunity for scrambling or a longer than expected putt. You want to emphasise short-game skills this week, as a player’s ability to maintain momentum and recover could be key to success and making the cut.

RSM Classic Preview Golf Betting Tips

Thank you for reading our preview and tournament analysis of the 2024 RSM Classic.

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5 months ago 0 comments

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John Deere Classic Betting Tips: DeepDiveGolf’s Best Bets And Player Profiles

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 9 months ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

After one of our best week’s of the year at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, it was understandable to see a lot of excitement in the WinDaily Sports Discord both celebrating the HUGE wins but also anticipating this week’s selections for the John Deere Classic Betting tips.

In a year dominated by an unbackable Scottie Scheffler winning at extremely short odds, it is pleasing to return the year to profit. This follows a 2023 where we had an ROI of +33% and 2022 with ROI of +25%.

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Grab your promo code to read our full article on our John Deere Classic Betting Tips

As always, prior to reading my betting tips I recommend reading my John Deere Classic preview here. This has all the information you need and provides an overview behind the selections below.

John Deere Classic Golf Betting Tips

Suggested Staking

Aaron Rai – John Deere Classic Betting Tips Favourite
2.5u E/W +2000 (Various 8 places 1/5 odds)

Denny McCarthy
2.5u E/W +2000 (Various 8 places 1/5 odds)

Daniel Berger
1u E/W +7000 (888Sport 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2u Top 20 +320 (Bet365)

Dylan Wu
1u E/W +8000 (Betfair 10 places 1/5 odds)
And
2u Top 20 +500 (Betfair)

Chandler Phillips
0.5u E/W +10000 (Bet365 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1u Top 20 +450 (BetVictor)
And
2u Top 40 +160 (Bet365)

Patton Kizzire – John Deere Classic Betting Tips Best Value
0.5u E/W +14000 (Bet365 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1u Top 20 +550 (Bet365)
And
2u Top 40 +200 (Bet365)

Troy Merritt
0.5u E/W +15000 (888Sport/BetWay 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1u Top 20 +550 (Bet365)
And
2u Top 40 +200 (Bet365)

John Deere Classic Betting Player Profiles

Aaron Rai – John Deere Classic Betting Tips Favourite

We headline our John Deere Classic betting tips with the talented, if somewhat underachieving, Englishman in Aaron Rai. Turning pro at 17 years old, much was hoped for his budding career. It is probably fair to surmise that had he remained on the DP World Tour, he would have won an additional 6 or more professional events by this point of his career.

The big bug bear for Rai has, as is often the case for elite ball-strikers, been his putter. There was some great evidence last week that this may be turning the corner. On his way to a runner up finish, Rai was 10th for SG: Putting. This all came off the back of beginning work with a new putting coach, as well as ranking 25th for putting at the US Open. The fact that this change in his team was accompanied by immediate results is undoubtedly eye-catching.

For those concerned he may be emotionally drained after competing last week, bear in mind his debut DP World Tour victory came at the Scottish Open a week after finishing 2nd at the Irish Open. Both are flagship events on the DP World Tour, carrying a lot of prestige as national opens.

Ranking 15th in this field for the key approach range of 100-150 yards, he also rates out number one in the field for driving accuracy over the last 6 months. Combined with the sudden improvement in putting, this shapes as a wonderful opportunity for Aaron Rai to notch his maiden PGA Tour win.

Denny McCarthy

There are question marks around Jordan Spieth with his form and wrist injury, Sungjae Im and his course suitability, and a very short-priced but still always volatile Sepp Straka at the top of the John Deere Classic betting market. With a swift drop in class after the top few names, the other I wanted on this card was Denny McCarthy.

Of course, there was heartbreak for Denny earlier in the season when he lost in a playoff to Bhatia at the Valero Texas Open. There are a fair number of parallels between TPC San Antonio and TPC Deere Run too, and the additional correlation that prior to that playoff loss he had gained on approach on his two prior starts.

That is the same situation we find McCarthy in this week, who was 24th on approach at TPC River Highlands. You see, given his putting prowess, Denny is atypical to many a PGA Tour player. We can reliably say he is one of the best putters on planet earth, ranking 1st in this field over the last 6 months. The key marker for his game is when his iron play begins to improve.

Of further promise, he is even better than Rai in the 100-150 yard range, ranking 11th in this field within that bucket. Ranking in the top 30% in the field for driving accuracy is also good enough to get the job done, at a golf course where he has finished 6th in both of the last two years.

Daniel Berger

Outside those two names at the top, it is then worth diving down the John Deere Classic betting board and finding value. Aforementioned, this is not a strong field. That presents opportunity. At many events with truly elite players, so much win equity is occupied up top, with the remainder swallowed up in the 2nd line of betting. At the John Deere Classic, the class difference between 10th and 40th in betting is far smaller.

After an extended period out injured, it is pleasing to see Berger’s fitness return. Although he is yet to find prior results, that has come from short-game rust. Totally understandable after 18 months away from golf. Of recent results, the 13th at a low scoring Byron Nelson was promising, as was finishing 21st in elite company at the US Open.

The fact that his ball-striking has returned is promising. He ranks 7th in this field over the last 6 months (34 rounds) and 14th for SG: APP. Again, he ranks very well in the key 100-150 yards range, rating out 9th in this field.

Of spots to find his putter again, TPC Deere Run presents a potential opportunity. He has gained strokes putting here in 2/3 appearances, with his only time losing putting being at a rate of just -0.04 per round to be right on field average. He still finished 33rd that week. Berger finished 5th here on debut too, which is always pleasing when a golfer plays well on their first look at a course.

A win at correlated Colonial, 2nd and 5th at TPC River Highlands, and 7th at Wai’alae completes the picture. He could join Stricker (x 3), Spieth (x 2), Zach Johnson, and Kenny Perry in completing the double here with Colonial Country Club with a win this week.

Dylan Wu

Despite a lack of form here and correlating courses, I’m willing to take a chance on Dylan Wu this week.

This is a home game for Dylan Wu, having attended Northwestern University some 170 miles away. Those local links should add to his comfortability at this course, often a small thing that can make a large difference to performance.

Last week’s venue, Detroit Golf Club, did not shape as a great match on paper for Dylan Wu. Therefore, a finish of 10th with rounds of 69-68-69-68 was pleasing and demonstrated great consistency. That can often be an aspect missing in his game, with the ability to compile one very low round bookended by a couple of high ones.

21st in this field for the key approach range of 100-150 yards is complimented by recent improvements in driving accuracy and putting. In terms of the latter, he led the field in putting last week on similar bentgrass greens and ranks 3rd in this field over the last month for SG: Putt. Overall, the John Deere Classic makes for a potential breakout spot for Dylan Wu at decent value particularly in the Top 20 and Top 40 betting markets.

Chandler Phillips

Having already turned some heads early on in his rookie season, Chandler Phillips looks well positioned this week for another strong finish.

Detroit Golf Club was simply not the right course fit for this short hitter. Making the cut in itself was an achievement, as was being 10th in the field for driving accuracy. He now rates as 23rd in this field over the past month within that metric. Instead, prior tournaments can provide some better guidance in my opinion.

A 12th at the highly correlated Colonial was backed up by a 10th at the RBC Canadian Open, where he ranked 6th on approach and 23rd for driving accuracy. Both required a disproportionate number of shots with wedges.

That has been a key strength for Phillips’ game, ranking only behind Lucas Glover in this field for the key 100-150 yard range in 2024. Combined with three consecutive events gaining +2.80 strokes or more putting makes for an intriguing prospect as a breakout spot for Phillips.

Patton Kizzire – John Deere Classic Betting Tips Best Value

Having hit out DeepDiveGolf Bookie Beater last week (Ryan Fox and Nicolai Hojgaard both to make the cut at +180), it was an easy choice for me where I wanted to convince the TAB to place their bet boost this week.

Kizzire ticks every box for me this week. His record here is impeccable for a golfer at triple figure odds in John Deere Classic betting. A missed cut here in 2023 came off the back of two prior missed cuts. However, his prior finishes here were 16-11-30-25. Those all came off the back of worse results than he is producing now.

He enters this tournament with better incoming form than ever before, with 5/6 finishes 28th or better (4/5 24th or better for individual strokeplay events). He also has compiled three consecutive tournaments gaining on driving accuracy and 3/4 tournaments gaining putting. His only occurrence losing strokes putting here came with the aforementioned missed cut last year. For longer term metrics, he is 8th in this field for SG: APP over the last 6 months. Of course, 3rd in the field for the 100-150 yards range.

Correlations can be easily found. He has a 3rd at Colonial, a 6th at TPC River Highlands, and a 13th and 24th at Sedgefield Country Club. He also holds a win, 7th, 11th, 13th, 16th, and 25th at Wai’alae. Kizzire added an additional 13th place finish there earlier this year for good measure.

Going out in the very first group, I love him for value betting as a John Deere Classic First Round Leader. He was easily marked as our best value this week. Very happy to bet boost his Top 20 odds with our local bookmaker here in New Zealand.

DeepDiveGolf Bookie Beater for the week is… 🥁

Patton Kizzire at the #JohnDeereClassic
Bet boosted Top 20 at @TAB_NZL to $5.00👀

Stats Deep-Dive
– 1/3rd of APP shots at #TPCDeereRun are from the 100-150 yds range
– Kizzire is 3rd in this field for SG: APP 100-150 yds since… https://t.co/ry5UeSekcu
— David Bieleski (@deepdivegolf) July 3, 2024

Troy Merritt

Finally, I wrap up our selections with Troy Merritt. It was another fabulous call from our resident projection expert Steven Polardi with his Frisky Biscuit. The controversially named, but always delicious, selection is a player at under 7k in Draftkings salary and low ownership. The ultimate PGA DFS leverage. Merritt was 3rd after 36 holes and finished the tournament in 17th.

Much akin to Chandler Phillips, that is a golf course that doesn’t really suit Merritt on paper. His ability to find fairways make this a much more suitable test, ranking out 17th in this field over the past 12 months for driving accuracy.

He was also 17th in this tournament in 2023, where he also holds a 20th back when this was a much stronger event. Colonial he has a 7th and 17th, along with an 8th at TPC River Highlands. A 9th recently at the low scoring CJ Cup Byron Nelson came at another TPC property (Craig Ranch). It marked his best finish of the year thus far.

Troy Merritt is a full-time member of team no putt. However, he has gained putting in 3/5 recent tournaments with a 4th losing just -0.18 per round. He has gained strokes putting at this event at an eye-catching 6/10 appearances, with another losing just -0.31 per round.

Also of promise is that Merritt has quietly ranked 12th in SG: APP over the last month in this field. The combination of improving driving accuracy, improving approach, and some life with the putter all points to a golfer currently undervalued in John Deere Classic betting markets.

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9 months ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports PGA Sports Betting Golf

John Deere Classic Preview: DeepDiveGolf’s Tournament Analysis, Weather, And Advice

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 9 months ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Well, before jumping into our John Deere Classic preview, there is one thing we need to say first: WHAT. A. WEEK!

It was a fabulous week all round for our selections at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Cam Davis was in our selections at a MASSIVE 70/1 and secured his 2nd PGA Tour victory at the same venue he won at in 2021. We also completed the quinella, with Min Woo Lee finishing runner-up within our selections. We cashed a full place on him at +360.

After three weeks of having hit a first-round leader top 5, we cashed in on Bhatia as first-round leader at 45/1. Sam Stevens finished in 10th, just one shot outside a place finish at 14/1. We cashed a Top 20 at +320 for him.

Have you EVER seen a week like this?!👇
1st and 2nd within the tips AND FRL!

WINNER🥇🏆
Davis
✅WIN +7000
✅Place +1400
✅T20 +350
2nd 🥈
Min Woo
✅Place +360
10th
Stevens
✅T20 +320
🤏Place +1400
25th
Dahmen
✅T40 +200
FRL
Bhatia
✅FRL +4500
✅FRL T6 +880#RocketMortgageClassic pic.twitter.com/aCF6SWwoU7
— David Bieleski (@deepdivegolf) June 30, 2024

It is hard to find fault in a week like that. However, I might make an exception for Joel Dahmen. Sitting 7th entering the final round, he was the worst putter in the field by some margin on Sunday when he lost -4.70 SG: Putt. Had he putted at field average, he would have cashed a place at 32/1. Even losing 2 strokes putting (still a substantially dreadful putting day), he would have locked in a Top 20 at +650. Instead, we had to settle on a Top 40 at +200.

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John Deere Classic History Preview

Much is made of this event, from notably receiving a hard time for the low quality of the field and the ease of scoring at TPC Deere Run. Mostly, it is hard to dispute both points.

However, the tournament has still generated it’s own storylines. Steve Stricker famously won 3 consecutive tournaments here from 2009-2011. Jordan Spieth won in both 2013 and 2015. Spieth appears here for the first time since that 2015 win. Largely, that is a result of his current FedEx Cup ranking. He sits outside the Top 50, a key mark to automatically earn his way into all the signature events in 2025. He returns in dreadful form, with question marks about an enduring wrist injury. But, it is Jordan Spieth. And in usual Spiethian fashion, just about anything could happen for him.

It is also one of the last opportunities to qualify for The Open Championship. An alluring prize for those who are yet to make the field, and one that has ensured a somewhat improved field in recent years.

TPC Deere Run Golf Course Analysis

TPC Deere Run has ranked consistently as one of the lowest scoring venues on the PGA Tour in all iterations of the tournament. In the last 14 tournaments, no one has won at a score higher than -18 and typically something in the range of -20 to -25 is required for victory. The cutline has been -3 or -4 for the last 5 years.

In short, you need to make birdies and do so often to remain in contention here. It should be no surprise then that all of the last 7 winners here ranked 15 or better for the week in greens in regulation.

Given fairways are generous average of 36 yards, what may be more surprising in our John Deere Classic preview is that driving accuracy ranks as a high correlation to success. However, the course has ranked in the 9th or lower for rough penalty on the PGA Tour for all seasons in the last 8 years. This is also another factor of the scoring.

Fact is, when you need to make birdies in bunches, you are best placed to do so from the fairway. The course is not overly long, being a 7,289 par 71. This factors into our final point of our John Deere Classic course preview. That is short iron play is supremely important at TPC Deere Run.

A huge 35% of approach shots will occur between 100-150 yards. With a further two approach shots projected between 50-100 yards, that is 45% of approach shots with a wedge in hand. This is particularly intriguing, given the majority of recent golf courses have seen the opposite with a disproportionate number of long irons.

The recipe to success here is find the fairway, hit a good wedge shot, and make the subsequent putt.

TPC Deere Run Course Comps

First thing to note is that TPC Deere Run has one of the lowest correlations between prior success as a predictor of future performance. This might be somewhat confusing given this tournament has been held 23 times at this venue, so a wealth of data is available.

However, given the low scoring here and generally weaker fields, it should be factored into your decisions when you preview the John Deere Classic the prior performances should rated less highly than at other venues.

TPC Deere Run plays host to our John Deere Classic Preview

Finding success here can be linked to a number of other low scoring venues, where driving accuracy and wedge play are the key. Courses such as Wai’alae Country Club (Sony Open), TPC River Highlands (Travelers Championship), and Sedgefield Country Club (Wyndham Championship) come to mind here.

Furthermore, Colonial Country Club (Charles Schwab Challenge) could be an important course comp. Jordan Spieth and Steve Stricker, both multiple time winners of the John Deere Classic, have also won there.

John Deere Classic Weather Preview

Weather could well play a factor to our John Deere Classic preview this week. When you have to score so low, getting the right side of the weather wave can be essential to finding a winner in betting or DFS markets.

Currently, Thursday morning looks to be the best conditions by far across the first two rounds. Winds will increase to low teens for gusts that afternoon, with a chance of heavy rain and possibly delayed play. On Friday, winds increase even further.

Friday presents the highest winds in the afternoon, with prevailing winds between 14-17 mph and gust between 20-25 mph. However, winds will still be high on Friday morning. It is a very short window before winds begin to increase throughout the day.

As such, I think the best strategy here is for those going out early Thursday. Hopefully, they can make the most of the pristine calm conditions. The goal is to then hold on throughout Friday. The vast majority of players will be completing at least 9 holes in very high winds. Further, those going out Thursday afternoon could slip into the windy conditions Friday morning if substantial delays are experienced.

Over the weekend, winds should settle. On Sunday, there is a small chance of thunderstorms and heavy rain in the region. Again, this could result in some delays in play should forecasts remain true.

Weather forecast could be key to our John Deere Classic Preview

John Deere Classic Preview Golf Betting Tips

If you want to read my golf betting tips for the John Deere Classic, you can preview these in the WinDaily Premium Discord here.

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9 months ago 0 comments

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Travelers Championship Preview: DeepDiveGolf’s Tournament Analysis, Weather, And Advice

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 10 months ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Before we dive into our Travelers Championship preview, it is only right we talk about THAT tournament this week. The 124th US Open Championship lived up to the mark, producing one of the most memorable majors in recent memory. Not only is it rare to get a major championship that close right until the final hole, but also to have a leaderboard of that calibre meant we enjoyed a tournament for the ages.

Pinehurst No. 2 was a brilliant host. It lived up to all the promise, albeit the course was watered occasionally much to the jeers of the crowd. It truly is a fabulous golf course. Pleasingly, it has been marked as one of several venues which will host the US Open more regularly. The green complexes are some of the most fascinating that we get to enjoy of the major championship venues. There is something to be said for removing the rough around greens, relying instead on heavy contouring and fast, firm greens. It allows for more creativity and, subsequently, enjoyment for fans who get to see the world’s best golfers struggle to think of ways to get up and down.

Overall, it was another profitable week for our selections without the winner. Headline selection Xander recovered from a poor start to fight back across the week. Davis Thompson was tipped at a massive 300/1, and impressed once again. He was just one shot off place money of 60/1, triple the best available pre-tournament odds on a Bryson DeChambeau win.

How things finished at the #USOpen

7th
Xander 12/1
✅Full place 4u +240
9th
Thompson 300/1
🤏One off place at 60/1
✅1u Top 20 +650
✅2.5u Top 40 +220
Conners 80/1
🤏One off place at 20/1
✅3u Top 20 +280

✅0.75u FRL Top 7 on Aberg +660
7/7 make cut, 5/7 finish 21st or better pic.twitter.com/716FDiK6nj
— David Bieleski (@deepdivegolf) June 16, 2024

TPC River Highlands Golf Course Analysis

True to form, the PGA Tour backs up a major championship with a signature event the following week. Although controversial, I can understand the reasoning. Not only does it ensure the field doesn’t get weakened after one of the flagship tournaments of the year, it has the additional benefit of striking while the iron is hot and fan interest in golf is high. The event will have no cut and was originally to have 72 players, although that has now reduced with Rory McIlroy to recover from that heart-breaking defeat.

Stats on that brutal #USOpen finish for Rory McIlroy.

Holes 1-15:
118ft 9in putts, avg. 7ft 11in
Holes 16-18:
7ft10in putts, avg. 2ft 7in

496/496 putts under 3ft made in 2024.
Missed only 6 total putts 3-4ft in 2024.
Misses 2 last 3 holes. 2ft6in on 16th hole, 3ft9in 18th hole. pic.twitter.com/MGUsZJBh30
— David Bieleski (@deepdivegolf) June 17, 2024

TPC River Highlands plays host for our Travelers Championship preview. The course in has played host for decades, so we have a wealth of data. The first thing to note is that driving accuracy is at a premium here. That is often a prerequisite at courses where Pete Dye is involved.

Fairways are narrow averaging just 29 yards at key landing areas. The course has ranked in the 10 most penalizing for missed fairways in 7/9 most recent tournaments. The rough is thick Kentucky Bluegrass. Notably, this week the course superintendent has given rough length as 4+ inches. I’ve not seen the plus notation previously, so I am interested to see how long they let the grass grow out!

TPC River Highlands plays host to our Travelers Championship Preview

The course is short at just 6,835 yards for a par 70. The average length of par 4/5 is some of the shortest we will see of all regular PGA Tour stops. As such, you simply have to find the fairway to approach these greens and keep up with the scoring. We also see a reduction in projected long iron approaches. There is an increase in approach shots from 150-175 yards, but the vast majority of iron shots will be from less than 150 yards this week.

TPC River Highlands Course Comps

Guidance for our Travelers Championship preview can be found in other Pete Dye designs. Both Harbour Town (host of the RBC Heritage) and TPC Sawgrass (host of The Players Championship) shape as good indicators. They each require driving accuracy for different reasons. Harbour Town has overhanging trees along the fairways which can compromise approach angles. TPC Sawgrass is dotted with water throughout the property.

As such, it also makes sense to consider Sedgefield Country Club. The link between TPC Sawgrass and Sedgefield is one of the strongest correlations of all PGA Tour courses. It demands driving accuracy, but also has the added benefit of a requirement to keep up with low scoring.

Wai’alae Country Club is another guide, with tree lined fairways on a short course keeping accuracy front of mind along with very similar approach distance metrics. With the return of bentgrass greens, the recent RBC Canadian Open and the Memorial Tournament can be used for SG: Putting data.

Travelers Championship Weather Preview

As is often the case in signature events, there is little chance of a weather edge developing in our Travelers Championship preview. Given the reduced field, the tee-time window when golfers will be on the course is reduced. The prevents an edge developing given the lack of distinct disparity between the morning and evening. Further, with no cut, this has less benefit for DFS players.

Thursday looks to be very windy from the afternoon onwards. Those going off earliest should benefit, although the advantage is somewhat limited given the tee-time window is likely to only be two hours. On Friday, there is a chance of heavy rain and thunderstorms in the evening. I suspect that they will try to get all groups out as early as possible on Friday morning.

There is a chance that lift, clean, and place could be in play. This means golfers who find the fairway can remove any mud off the golf ball and also give themselves a perfect lie. It would only further emphasise the importance on driving accuracy this week.

Saturday looks calm and the course should be soft if the forecast rain arrives. Scoring should be good. Should the weather preview hold true, Sunday sees some wind return, hopefully leading to an exciting conclusion for the Travelers Championship.

Travelers Championship Preview Golf Betting Tips

If you want to read my golf betting tips for the Travelers Championship, you can preview these in the WinDaily Premium Discord here.

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10 months ago 0 comments

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US Open Betting Tips: DeepDiveGolf’s Best Bets And Player Profiles

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 10 months ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Before getting into our betting tips for the US Open, I recommend having a read of my tournament preview article here. You can catch up on all my deep-dive golf course analysis of Pinehurst No. 2, course comps, and weather for the tournament. Hopefully, this helps provide a glimpse into part of my process behind the US Open golf betting tips below.

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US Open Golf Betting Tips

Xander Schauffele – US Open Golf Betting Tips Favourite
4u E/W +1200 (William Hill 8 places 1/5 odds)

Collin Morikawa
2.5u E/W +1600 (William Hill 8 places 1/5 odds)

Min Woo Lee
1u E/W +7500 (Unibet 7 places 1/5 odds)
And
3u Top 20 +250 (Various)

Corey Conners
0.5u E/W +8000 (BetVictor 5 places 1/4 odds)
And
3u Top 20 +280 (TAB)

Dean Burmester – US Open Golf Betting Tips Best Value
0.5u E/W +10000 (Bet365 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1u Top 20 +320 (Various)
And
3u Top 40 +160 (TAB)

Ryan Fox
0.25u E/W +17500 (Unibet 7 places 1/5 odds)
And
1u Top 20 +550 (Unibet)
And
2.5u Top 40 +187 (Bet365 w. 25% Bet Boost)

Davis Thompson
0.25u E/W +30000 (Bet365 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1u Top 20 +650 (Bet365 )
And
2.5u Top 40 +220 (Bet365 )

The Scottie Scheffler Conversation

As is often the case in 2024, you have to approach the Scottie Scheffler conversation. The same question remains when betting on the US Open.

There are couple of reasons to avoid betting Scheffler outright this week. The odds on offer are the shortest for a golfer in 15 years. That was Tiger Woods at +180 in the 2009 PGA Championship. It goes without saying that is outrageous odds for any golfer in one of the best fields of the year. Additionally, there may perhaps be no more appropriate golf course for taking Scheffler on.

In some ways, Pinehurst No. 2 is just plain unfair. Given the firmness of the course and fast dome shaped greens, even good approach shots may be punished this week. This can lead to volatility and, perhaps unfortunately, the best golfer of the week tournament may not actually win the tournament.

Sure, Scheffler could runaway with victory here much like Martin Kaymer did in 2014. We have to take on that risk. I’d instead favour taking him match-ups or tournament bets for a likely similar return. As always at DeepDiveGolf, we are betting value for the US Open. That means identifying situations where betting odds for the US Open are not reflective of the players actual chances.

US Open Betting Player Profiles

Xander Schauffele – US Open Golf Betting Tips Favourite

For the second tournament in a row, I am leading with Xander as my headline selection. I spoke before the Memorial Tournament of his ability on approach from 200+ yards. At least a third of all approach shots will come from that category. Schauffele is the best in the world in that metric, and it isn’t particularly close.

In many ways, Xander has been a victim of Scheffler’s success. He has been playing his best golf in his career. Again, that has been by quite some margin. Unfortunately, he has come up against a golfer playing at Tiger-esque levels in 2024.

We saw in 2022 that Schauffele managed to compile a quick run of successive victories. Having achieved his first win in 18 months, he also managed to get the Major victory monkey off his back when winning the PGA Championship.

His US Open record is impeccable reading 5-6-3-5-7-14-10 in his 7 appearances. He has finished no worse than 18th in his last 9 Major Championship appearances. Likewise, the formline at Donald Ross designed East Lake is also impressive. He has gone W-7-2-2-5-4-2 there.

Xander is a previous runner-up at the Open Championship and a winner at a tricky Scottish Open, where -7 was enough. He was also 2nd in North Carolina a few weeks ago at the Wells Fargo Championship for good measure.

Given his form, I show fair odds at 9/1. So, although 12/1 may seem short, that actually represents one of the better expected value on the US Open betting board. He could surprise a golf world with all eyes on Scottie Scheffler, and win back-to-back Majors this week.

Collin Morikawa

Given a short-priced option at the top and a volatile golf course, I decided to take just one other option up top before heading to the outsiders. And Morikawa shaped as the best additional selection within that range.

Much consideration was given to Hovland. Despite the inevitable return to Joe Mayo, I still hold concerns about his around the green game at a venue where short-game creativity should be key. Morikawa actually holds little worry in that category, rating out 9th in this field over the last 6 months.

Since reuniting with a former coach himself, Rick Sessinghaus, we have seen a significant resurgence in form from Morikawa. He has contended at both Majors, finishing 3rd at The Masters and 4th at the PGA Championship. He has finished no worse than 16th since that Masters performance. The most pleasing has been the return to his excellent approach play. He has improved on approach in his last 4 tournaments, ranking 4th for SG: APP last week.

Add into the mix that he is a previous Open Championship winner, and we could be looking at another golfer being just one win away from the career Grand Slam.

Min Woo Lee

So, we head swiftly into our longer shots, and few make better claims than Min Woo Lee.

Min Woo was a popular selection at the beginning of the year to win the US Open. For some reason, most likely the Scheffler effect, a lot of that noise has quietened down. As such, we can grab him this week at 75/1 when he was similar odds at the beginning of the year.

Another winner of the Scottish Open, Min Woo has plenty of experience on the Sandbelt courses in Australia to draw upon. I do suspect that this test will shape quite similar to that area. He has finished 27th and 5th in his two US Open appearances to date, with just one round hindering his chances on both occasions.

His approach play is often the question. However, his strongest range is from over 200+ yards, aided by his high clubhead speed meaning he can approach with a more lofted club than others. He has now gained on the field in that regard in 3 out of 4 most recent appearances.

Finally, there are some links between previous US Open leaderboards at Pinehurst No. 2 and TPC Sawgrass. Martin Kaymer is a champion at both, with 2014 runner-up Rickie Fowler also linking the two. As such, his contending on debut there in 2023 could see him join his sister Min Jee Lee in both having won the US Open.

Corey Conners

I have been on the Conners train for quite some time in 2024, and remain on him this week.

What many are sleeping on is the amount of driving distance he has added this year. Long regarded as a very accurate driver, he has now gained on the field for driving distance for every tournament bar two since July 2023.

Again, he ranks out very well for approach shots over 200+ yards. He ranks 3rd in that metric for 2024, behind Tony Finau who has well documented struggles on bermudagrass greens.

Also being missed is the swift improvement in his short-game of late, ranking as one of the sharpest improvers compared to historical baseline in that metric for the last 3 months. Conners has contended at Sawgrass twice and holds 20s at both the Scottish Open and The Open Championship.

Certainly, Conner’s US Open record leaves a lot to be desired. In saying that, as outlined in my preview I do suspect that this golf course plays quite a bit different to many other US Open venues. He has not missed a cut since the US Open last year, marking 23 tournaments. That improvement in putting and ATG has seen him finish 26th or better in his last 5 tournaments.

Dean Burmester – US Open Golf Betting Tips Best Value

Given the lack of strokes gained data, capping LIV Golf players is notoriously tricky. But let’s not be too hard on them, the first LIV Golf tournament didn’t even have a leaderboard on their website. So, you could argue they have come a long way by including ground-breaking statistics like Greens in Regulation.

Cam Smith looked a likely bet for me until he shot a round of 80 in last week’s tournament. My sources on the ground (I have links to his camp through his caddy) say that he is loving Pinehurst No. 2 thus far. Whether being scared off by that 3rd round performance at LIV Houston was wise remains to be seen.

Instead, I’ll side with Dean Burmester here. We saw some of the best of Burmy at the PGA Championship when he finished 12th off the back of a special invite. He finished 11th at The Open Championship held at St Andrews behind Cam Smith, as well as holding a 7th at the Alfred Dunhill Links.

His prodigious distance should remain an asset, ranking 4th in this field over the last two years for driving distance. Likewise, he possesses deft touch around the greens where he is 16th over the past two years. Looking over that timeframe is necessary given the lack of LIV data.

Burmester has tended to do best in tricky conditions. He most notably won at a difficult Doral at -11 earlier this year. That was his 4th victory at -12 or higher.

He ranks as the best long-shot in my books and warranted me marking him for our Bet Boost at the TAB this week.

How cool is this 👀
The generous folks over at the @TAB_NZL are offering a "DeepDiveGolf Bookie Beater" bet boost every week!

At the #USOpen we have Dean Burmester Top 40 boosted from $2.20 to $2.60 🤑

Tune into @SENZMornings Wednesdays 10am NZT to hear the selection and why! https://t.co/lKyYFghCCX pic.twitter.com/xnYGydmPWs
— David Bieleski (@deepdivegolf) June 11, 2024

Ryan Fox

I’ve been called the “Fox Whisperer” on occasion, and that followed in the Canadian Open. We selected Foxy that week at huge odds, he held a 4 shot lead with 25 holes to go, before eventually finishing 7th.

That was the second time this season where he has capitulated from contention. Ryan Fox was just two strokes off the lead at The Masters before fading. Again, he did the same in Canada when spotting the leaderboard and realising where he sat in the tournament.

Fox has a win at the Alfred Dunhill Links, where he finished 2nd in his defense. He also finished 16th in The Open Championship and has a 4th and 6th at the Scottish Open. I asked him about his love for links golf in the below interview (7m30 mark). Fox commented that he loved the creativity that links golf allowed him around the greens, something which will be imperative in this contest.

The golf course reminds me a lot of Te Arai Links, his home golf course in New Zealand. Foxy swiftly set the course record there shooting a bogey-free 60 with 12 birdies.

It will of course be a big ask to win this. However, we have seen stranger things when betting at the US Open previously. None more so than the Kiwi connection to Pinehurst No. 2, with Michael Campbell winning here in 2005 and Danny Lee also winning the US Amateur at this venue.

Davis Thompson

Finally, I was tempted by Tom McKibbin and Victor Perez to round out the selections. McKibbin won a junior tournament here in 2015, is shaping as one of the best players on the DP World Tour, has plenty of links form, and is a winner at a very difficult golf course Green Eagle where he finished 8th when defending. Perez has made some notable gains on approach in his last 3 tournaments, has won the Alfred Dunhill Links, and was 12th in the PGA Championship at the Donald Ross designed Oak Hill.

Instead, I can’t resist a speculative bet on Davis Thompson. Thompson is both long and straight with driver in hand, which will be helpful at tricky fairways to find on what is still a long golf course nonetheless.

He also ranks well for approach, rating out 26th for SG: APP in this field over the last 3 months. Included in that was when 15th on approach last week, despite actually losing strokes on approach in the final round. Particularly, he has traditionally been best on approach from longer range.

Thompson is handy enough ATG, rating out 32nd in this field over the past 6 months. Much of his performance will come down to his performance with the putter. Positive signs have been seen of late, as well as additional support from prior performances on bermudagrass greens. Winning is more than likely beyond him, but he looks value for a Top 40 and perhaps even a cheeky Top 20.

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10 months ago 0 comments

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