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PGA DFS

PGA DFS Picks: Shriners Children’s Open

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Shriners Children’s Open and helping you find some winning teams!

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PGA DFS Course Notes:

Some big names in this full field of 156+ Golfers
Cut: Top 65 and ties play the weekend
Defending Champ and former winners:
- 2020 – Martin Laird (-23, beat Matthew Wolff and Austin Cook in playoff))
- 2019 – Kevin Na (-23, beat Patrick Cantlay in playoff)
- 2018 – DeChambeau (-21, another Cantlay second place)
- 2017 – Cantlay (-9 in windy conditions, beat Whee Kim in playoff)
Patrick Cantlay NOT in field this year (he’s obviously too cool for school now)
The course: TPC Summerlin (Las Vegas, NV)
- Par 71: 7,255+ yards
- Bentgrass greens
- Played at altitude, helping shorter hitters
- Easier setup with shorter Par 4s and three reachable par fives
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, SG: Tee-to-Green. SG: Putting (Bentgrass), Birdie or Better %, SG: OTT, Par 4s (400-450), Bogey Avoidance, SG: Around the Green, TPC Course history

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Brooks Koepka (DK $11,100) – I bet Koepka can knock it around with his 3-wood all day and do well at this elevation, so I’ll be using him in GPPs because that price will likely scare folks off and he never sees really high ownership.

Webb Simpson (DK $10,200) – Solid course history, but no top five finishes keeps him a cash game play for me and only a sprinkle in GPPs. I don’t like playing Webb, but I’ll make room for some exposure.

Will Zalatoris (DK $10,100) – He finished in the Top 15 last week and had a T5 at this event in his debut last year, so I’m getting some shares of him this week. Plenty of game for this layout and lots of upside.

Scottie Scheffler (DK $9,700) – The perfect under-the-radar GPP play at a discount from the elite golfers he’s proven he belongs among. He’s the one guy I’m willing to throw out course history, because his game (and putting) has come so far in the past 12 months.

Also consider: Viktor Hovland (GPP), Abraham Ancer (cash), Louis Oosthuizen (GPP)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Harris English (DK $9,300) – English is the type of golfer we kick ourselves for not playing at a course where he can dominate. The birdies often come in bunches and he doesn’t make too many bogeys.

Sungjae Im (DK $9,200) – Im’s play has been non-offensive but not amazing, and he’s probably in that same middling-to-good area for this venue, where he’s posted a T15 and T13. Even if he doesn’t win, I could see a top 10 finish and decent chalk for cash games.

Si Woo Kim (DK $9,000) – Kim has started off 2021 well with a T11 (Fortinet) and T8 (Sanderson Farms) to open the young season. He’s also good at Summerlin, where he’s 4-for-4 with three top 25 finishes.

Joaquin Niemann (DK $8,300) – If Spencer can forgive his poor play at East Lake, so can I.He missed just one cut in 2020-21 and is 2-for-3 at TPC Summerlin with a T10 (2018) and a T13 (2020).

Corey Conners (DK $8,800) – A good combination of recent play and course history, but as Sia pointed out in the breakdown, the putter lets him down a lot. He’s GPP only and I’m not interested him in single-entry.

Matthew Wolff (DK $8,200) – Guaranteed to be chalky at this price, considering his finish here last season and the fact that he could easily be priced well above $9K. Wolff could get in attack mode early and never look back.

Russell Henley (DK $7,900) – We’ve got a true consensus this week on Henley, who seems to be on everybody’s list as a great GPP option. A solid course fit, he’s yet to break through in the past few years but has shown steady improvement and could be in the mix for my single-entry teams.

Brian Harman (DK $7,600) – The price is just way too cheap for a course horse like Harman, and while he’s not a huge threat to win, it’s not outside of the range of possibility – which is great for a golfer under $8K.

Also consider: Also consider: Patrick Reed (GPP), Cameron Tringale (GPP), Erik van Rooyen (GPP), Aaron Wise (GPP), Mito Pereira

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Ryan Palmer (DK $7,500) – Palmer has a decent course history at Shriners but could be a popular play at this price. He’s not a terrible last piece for cash games and single entry.

Rickie Fowler (DK $7,300) – Rickie was in a bad place last year and while he still hasn’t been great lately, his game saw some resurgence in a few areas. I’ll take a crack at this low price in some GPPs.

Ian Poulter (DK $7,000) – It’s crazy that he’s price way down here for his upside, and I’m sure he’ll enjoy Vegas. Spencer also pointed him out as a guy worth a look in GPPs.

Henrik Norlander (DK $7,000) – Sia and I are seeing eye to eye on Norlander, who’s right there in terms of form and course fit. He’s playing much better than a $7K golfer and the elevation helps his game.

Adam Hadwin (DK $6,800) – Hadwin’s one of the better SG:APP guys and gets help off the tee at this venue like Norlander. He’s GPP only and probably not consistent enough for SE.

More value golfers to consider: Emiliano Grillo (GPP), Cameron Davis (GPP), Martin Laird, Lucas Glover, Scott Piercy, Matthew NeSmith (GPP), Brandt Snedeker (GPP), K.H. Lee

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Chesson Hadley (DK $6,500) – I’m an admitted Hadley fanboy and he’s got a great course history at TPC Summerlin. I love the price and upside, and I may even do a lower-entry fee, larger field single-entry with him in there.

Tom Hoge (DK $6,400) – I wrote up Hoge here last year and he responded with a T24, so I’m on board once again! He’s fine for large-field GPPs and could surprise with a Top 20 this time around — plus Sia is betting the farm on him for first-day leader!

Additional punts: Rory Sabbatini, Peter Malnati, Hank Lebioda, Brian Stuard, Mark Hubbard

4 years ago 0 comments

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Tee 2 Green PGA DFS Picks: Shriners Hospitals For Children Open

brucegray19722@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by brucegray19722@gmail.com

Hello everybody, and welcome back to ‘Tee 2 Green,’ a new article that I will be producing for Win Daily Sports weekly to give some extra insight into the DFS world of golf. My focus will be to discuss, decipher and dissect some of my preferred targets throughout the various price ranges, and I will always provide my opinion with a data-intensive outlook that you can see first-hand if you use the weekly model that I provide free of charge. You can find that here.

Course – TPC Summerlin

7,251 Yards – Par 71 – Greens: Bentgrass

Bobby Weed masterminded the property on the rugged desert terrain in 1991, with Fuzzy Zoeller serving as his consultant. The course meanders through arroyos and canyons, featuring lush Bentgrass greens to go along with friendly Bermuda rough. I use the word friendly because the rough is only two inches thick, but Bermuda rough can be sticky and cause fliers for those that miss the short grass off the tee. With all that being said, players don’t seem overly concerned about that fact since driving distance is over 13 yards above tour average, but it is worth noting that some of the added distance can be directly correlated to the slight altitude change and firm fairways from the Vegas heat. I think that gives an artificial boost to the shorter hitters, who will get more rollout than they are accustomed to having during a regular stop on tour.

The three par-fives and two short par-fours are the most accessible holes, and four of these are included during the final six-hole stretch. Overall, golfers that can demonstrate ball-striking ability and strategy off the tee should exploit TPC Summerlin since nine of the past 11 winners have taken home the title at 20-under par or better, but these birdie shootouts that don’t highlight a particular skillset are always a little more challenging to handicap. I tried to keep things predictive in a roundabout way, but there are some loopholes to get past since tournaments such as the Shriners Open could open up the field for more players to find success.

Strokes gained Tee to Green (17.5%) – I slightly reconfigured it from how the PGA Tour looks at the stat to try and make it more conducive towards TPC Summerlin. We saw the dispersion in scoring last year be about 15% for both off the tee and around the green – while still coming in at a heavy 37% for approach. I reallocated those percentages to remove putting from the equation entirely, which essentially gave me a weighted T2G metric that incorporated 23% of my total on both OTT and ATG and then 54% on approach.
Total Driving (17.5%) – That is a 65/35 split of accuracy over distance. Yes, players average 13 yards more off the tee here, but I view that more positively for the shorter hitters. Vegas plays in added elevation, and the heat from the town tends to dry up the fairways and create extra rollout. Distance certainly will help, but the Bermuda grass can make a stickier shot than meets the eye, even if the rough isn’t thick.
SG: Total At Easy Courses L50 (10%) – With nine of the last 11 wins coming at 20-under par or better, it takes a specific type of player
SG: Total At TPC Courses L50 (10%) -The TPC filter works nicely since all of the TPC properties are somewhat similar in the sense that they are made for birdies.
Short Par-Four + Par-Five Birdie or Better (10%) – That is about as low as you will ever see me go for a non-par 70, but most holes out here provide the opportunity to make birdie. I thought pinpointing a specific par-total of any kind for a considerable weight was dangerous because it minimizes the impact that other holes will have.
Overall Birdie or Better (15%) – Instead, I added 15 percent here. I liked the complete picture this route took of where I still have 25% of my total statistical data being derived by scoring, but it isn’t condensed into a specific range.
Scrambling (10%) – I considered sand save percentage because over 100 are scattered throughout the property, but I figured scrambling made more sense since golfers will frequently play out of the rough.
SG: Total on Bentgrass Greens (10%) – This is just another way of looking for potential positive putting regression. I don’t mind adding in three-putt avoidance because these are larger green complexes, but I decided to keep the model and use stats like that as more of an eye test than anything else.

High-Priced DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Viktor Hovland ($10,600) – Similar to last week, five of my top-nine golfers are in this range, but I will say that I am not as convinced that we are required to start in the $10,000 section. I don’t see a massive difference between most of these players and the dropdown in the 9k range, but it doesn’t mean I don’t have a few golfers that I will be using. Viktor Hovland feels the hardest for me to shake, as he might be sitting on a significant result, averaging 3.79 shots with his irons over his last eight and 2.65 OTT in his previous 16. Hovland has gained off the tee in 19 of his past 21 and ranks sixth in total driving.

Webb Simpson ($10,200) – If I am forced to give a chalk answer near the top, I don’t mind going down the Webb Simpson route. We have seen this narrative countless times where he is almost bulletproof at specific venues. The Wyndham Championship is the more pronounced definition of that, but even here, he has recorded four straight top-20 results. I think Simpson is one of the must-have cash options, but I can also get creative enough with builds to use him in GPPs.

Favorite Cash Play– Webb Simpson ($10,200)

$9,000 Range

Louis Oosthuizen ($9,900) – I will find myself littered in this section, as it seems like an optimal strategy to formulate flatter builds. Louis Oosthuizen should have playability across the board because of his 16 straight made cuts, but he also has upside at this specific test. There is a slight worry about his ability to make birdies in bunches for a shootout like this, but he should be safe for cash and still possesses a contrarian nature for GPPs at around 10% ownership. Oosthuizen ranks second on bentgrass greens and first in strokes gained total over his last 24 rounds.

Scottie Scheffler ($9,700) – If you look at my model this week, you will notice Scottie Scheffler doesn’t grade out exceptionally well with the way it was released, but one of the things I like to do is alter certain variables on my version to try and see who moves when something is added or subtracted. Scheffler will remain GPP-only for me because there are a few red flags, but some of them are easy to explain, like the fact that he has never finished better than 74th here in two tries. If you remember, Scheffler played in the Shriners tournament last year after taking three weeks off because of COVID-19. And his 74th place finish in 2019 is more aberrational than anything else when you consider that he entered Saturday eight-under par and within striking distance of the leaders. Scheffler feels underweight in projected ownership, and I think he has the upside to win this event at his best. I don’t view this situation much differently than the one I found with Max Homa at the Genesis, where he was lightly owned, but my reconfigured model loved his potential.

Harris English ($9,300) – Haris English ranks inside the top-25 of my model for strokes gained tee to green over his last 24 rounds and is also inside the top-16 over the last two years for scoring at easy courses, par-five birdie or better, overall birdie or better, scrambling and total driving.

Si Woo Kim ($9,000) – Four top-30s in Si Woo Kim’s last five starts. Two top-15s here in his previous three appearances. Top-10 in my model at short courses. I think he fits nicely into a cash build and is still highly usable in GPPs.

Additional Thoughts: I am okay with the idea of using any of the options in this section now that Kevin Na has withdrawn. Hideki Matsuyama ($9,500) and Sungjae Im ($9,200) are both very playable.

$8,000 Range

Patrick Reed ($8,600) – I consider this GPP-only if his ownership remains sub-10 percent, but he is too good to be priced here and not generate traction.

Joaquin Niemann ($8,300) – East Lake will sometimes eat a golfer alive, but his ball-striking numbers are trending towards a big result if we remove that start. Niemann has gained OTT in 31 of 34, with his irons in 17 of 20, and he probably has about as much upside as anyone we can find in the $8,000s on the board.

Other Thoughts: Cameron Tringale ($8,500) and Paul Casey ($8,900) will be sprinkled into builds, but I am going so heavy in the $9,000 range that I don’t have a ton of room for multiple selections here. Reed and Niemann are two of the better upside choices.

$7,000 Range

Russell Henley ($7,900) – Russell Henley was shaky in his last start at the BMW Championship, but he had gained at least five shots tee to green in his previous five events. We keep running into this trend with some of these options where I am not sure they can make enough birdies to win the event, but the reason I am willing to forgive Henley for ranking 72nd in my model for overall birdie or better percentage is because of how he performs at a more straightforward test. It is the same theory that I had with Scheffler in the sense that some of his data will get skewed at the more challenging tracks that they play, and we should see a more robust outcome when faced at a birdie fest because of his ball-striking nature.

Brian Harman ($7,600) – Brian Harman always feels universally underpriced for how I run my model. As Sia said on the podcast this week, ” don’t be surprised to see Harman crack into the next range at some point.”

Ian Poulter ($7,000) – Ian Poulter is trending across the board with his strokes gained data. He is the 53rd most expensive player on DraftKings and is 30th in the betting market. That is the third-largest disparity behind only Hayden Buckley and Adam Hadwin.

Additional Thoughts: I will mostly be using this range as random dart throws when not playing the three above. I don’t envision having to use any of these often, but they are options I am either rounding a lineup up with or playing as my second-to-last choice. Stewart Cink ($7,100), Kevin Kisner ($7,400), Sebastian Munoz ($7,000), Rasmus Hojgaard ($7,100), Cameron Davis ($7,300), Sahtith Theegala ($7,500), Seamus Power ($7,400), Cameron Young ($7,000), Talor Moore ($7,300). Volatile options with high upside and high missed cut potential.

$6,000 Range

Adam Hadwin ($6,800) – I never play Adam Hadwin. In fact, I usually fade him in H2H wagers, but I love how this course sets up for him. Three top-35s here since 2016, and while he is volatile missing three of his last six cuts, Hadwin has two top-10s recently. The Canadian ranks second in strokes gained total on Bentgrass and fourth in short par-four scoring

Additional Dart Throws To Consider: William McGirt ($6,100), Adam Long ($6,000), Hayden Buckley ($6,600), Harry Hall ($6,000), Mark Hubbard ($6,100), Hank Lebioda ($6,300), James Hahn ($6,400), Kyle Stanley ($6,100), Adam Schenk ($6,800), Matt Kuchar ($6,600), Nick Taylor ($6,300). I am telling you now that if we get half those guys through the cut, I will consider it a success. Hall, Long, Hubbard and Stanley are projected to miss by my math, but they are extremely close. The other handful are barely in on the other side, but I hope that adds a little insight into playable options that my model expects to outproduce their price tag. I won’t find myself down here often this week, but there are random dart throws to target.

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4 years ago 0 comments

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The Shriners Open: Initial Picks

Sia 4 years ago

written by Sia

Welcome to the Vegas swing, baby. It’s gonna be a fun west coast ride and we kick it off with The Shriners Open. We’ve got a full field event this week that is going to test APP precision and PUTT, but make no mistake about it, it’ll be another birdie-fest. I want good ball strikers but being sharp OTT isn’t a pre-requisite as the fairways are wide and there isn’t much trouble beyond them even if you miss. We’re going to discuss the course dynamics at length during our PGA Livestream, which of course, will feature @TeeOffSports model breakdown. In the interim, check out the Shriners Open Initial Picks. I’ll note that most of the plays below are for GPP and we will have at least two additional articles tomorrow that will address both GPP and Cash.

Viktor Hovland (10600) – No experience on this track, but I think he’s the best golfer in this field and his ball striking and APP play can get red hot which is what you’re going to need here.

Abraham Ancer (10400) – He’s in good form and is certainly a good fit with his ball striking and potentially hot putter. His course history is hit or miss with two 4^th place finishes and 2 MCs, but I’m leaning toward a Top 10 finish this week.

Louis Oosthuizen (9900) – I think Louis has plenty of opportunity to be contending here late on Sunday afternoon. He’s a great ball striker, particularly on APP and he’s no stranger to a hot putter. Interesting to note that he hasn’t been great from the APP proximities I’m focused upon this week, but I’m willing to overlook that.

Si Woo Kim (9000) – I like him as a GPP play if his rostership is low. He’s made 3 cuts in a row at The Shriners Open and that includes two Top 15s. His recent form has also been very good. The putter can get him in trouble but I’ll take a chance on him this week.

Erik Van Rooyen (8000) – We haven’t seen much of EVR lately which makes it the perfect time to roster him as people likely take a wait and see approach. Last we saw him he was in his best form as he fought to get into the FedEx Cup Playoffs and then continued to surge. A great play if the ownership is low. Speaking of good GPPs at low ownership, if Patrick Reed is very low owned, he’s another guy I would play in GPPs.

Russell Henley (7900) – I’m looking for guys who may be able to stuff it near the pin on these large Bentgrass greens. If Henley’s APP game is what it can be, he’s certainly eligible to do just that. He’s made 3 out of his last 4 cuts here, but nothing higher than 24^th.

Kevin Streelman (7800) – His history here is just plain bad and his recent history isn’t much better. I happen to think he’s a great course fit and I think he may be a very sneaky and low owned GPP play. Do not play him in cash.

Brian Harman (7600) – I really wonder what his ownership will be at The Shriners Open. If he’s low owned he’s an easy play for me with three Top 20s over his last three on this track. I’m hopeful that his awful recent form will steer people away (and I’d like to chalk up that poor form to fatigue down the stretch of a jam packed 2021 season).

Pat Perez (7200) – Not a guy I normally roster but I like his APP play and his OTT game won’t hurt him to badly. He can rack up birdies and find a hot putter and while he MC’d last year, he placed 3^rd and 7^th the two times prior to that. Honorable mention to Maverick McNealy in this 7k range.

Henrik Norlander (7000) – His history here isn’t great, but I just love his form right now. He gained over 8 strokes on APP last week and has been great on APP and with the PUTT since last summer. Hoping this is the beginning of a hot streak.

Hank Lebioda (6300) – There’s a lot to consider in this 6k range, but for now I’ll leave you with Hammerin’ Hank as it wouldn’t shock me if he returns to form. He missed the cut at the Fortinet, but was pretty good on APP and really lost it OTT and ARG. I don’t expect that to crush him at The Shriners Open and I’m willing to gamble at this price. Way more on this 6k range during our PGA Livestream.

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – Current record is 43-13.

4 years ago 0 comments

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The Sanderson Farms Final Ownership Projections

Steven Polardi 4 years ago

written by Steven Polardi

Welcome everyone to the Sanderson Farms Final Ownership Projections, this week we are in Jackson Mississippi for a tourney on a Donald Ross designed course with updates. Longer more accurate drives will be rewarded along with putting on this 7200 + yard course with light rough.

Sergio Garcia returns to defend his championship one week after a grueling and demanding Ryder Cup that saw the Americans totally overwhelm the Europeans. It will be interesting to see if Sergio defends his crown valiantly, or if his energy is sapped and he melts under the humid southern sun.

Watching the Ryder Cup was riveting and rewarding at the same time. I tend to stay out of politics, especially when 99% of the people dying of Covid in hospitals are unvaccinated, and an unbelievable segment of the population is depending on the expertise of Bubba the high school drop out vet tech who is selling horse de wormer at a surprising rate at your neighborhood vet clinic. Parasitic worms are in trouble, in the meantime 2000 people a day still die from Covid, the virus could care less what your political affiliation is. The reason I bring this up is that I saw 50,000 + fans all come together, all vaccinated, to cheer on an American team against their counterparts from across the pond. Roaring chants of USA ! USA ! permeated the course, and it just felt really good to watch Americans bond together to cheer on their American heroes who came through better than ever, beating their counterparts by the highest margin ever. Good for us, good for all Americans. Well done United States of America. Well done !!

Let’s take a look at your Sanderson Farms Final Ownership:

OWNERSHIP PROJECTION
PLAYER	OWN %	SALARY
Hoffman, Charley	24.3	9000
Pereira, Mito	23.9	9900
Zalatoris,Will	23.7	10800
Conners, Corey	20.6	10100
Im, Sungjae	20.4	10300
Burns, Sam	19.4	11000
Davis. Cameron	17.3	9100
Wise, Aaron	16.4	8300
Garcia, Sergio	14.8	10500
Tringale, Cameron	14.6	9400
Ortiz, Carlos	13.9	8600
Rodgers, Patrick	13.8	7600
Streelman, Kevin	12.4	8900
Pendrith, Taylor	12.1	7800
Bradley, Keegan	11.8	9700
Kizzire, Patton	11.7	8200
Varner III, Harold	11.6	9200
Ramey, Chad	11.2	7000
Power, Seamus	10.8	8800
Wolff, Mathew	10.7	8500
Kirk, Chris	9.2	7500
Munoz, Sebastian	9.1	9300
Grillo, Emiliano	8.9	8700
Stallings, Scott	8.8	7700
Reavie, Chez	8.6	7700
Kim, Si Woo	8.4	9500
Moore, Taylor	8.3	7100
Woodland, Gary	8.1	8400
Schenk, Adam	7.3	6700
List, Luke	7.2	7500
Clark, Wyndham	7.2	6400
Bramlett, Joseph	6.7	7900
Wallace, Matt	6.6	7100
Ghim, Doug	6.3	8000
Griffin, Lanto	6.3	7400
Lahiri, Anirban	6.1	6200
Dahmen, Joel	5.9	7400
Jaeger, Stephan	5.6	7000
Villegas, Camilo	5.6	6700
Hughes, Mackenzie	5.5	7600
Mitchell, Keith	5.1	7800
Pan, CT	4.9	8100
Lee, KH	4.8	7600
Rai, Aaron	4.8	7300
Snedeker, Brandt	4.7	7200
Straka, Sepp	4.5	7000
Svensson, Adam	4.4	7100
Johnson, Zack	4.4	7500
Sabbatini, Rory	4.4	6900
Poston, JT	4.2	6600
Piercy, Scott	3.9	7400
Glover, Lucas	3.8	7400
Burgoon, Bronson	3.8	7300
Herbert, Lucas	3.6	7300
Hadwin, Adam	3.6	7000
Hoge, Tom	3.6	7200
Van Der Walt, Dawie	3.6	6500
Redman, Doc	3.4	6500
Smalley, Alex	3.3	6400
Steele, Brendan	3.3	7100
Kitayama, Kurt	3.3	6300
Sigg, Greyson	3.2	6900
Malnati, Peter	3.1	6500
Hardy, Nick	3.0	6900
Schwab, Matthias	2.9	8000
Armour, Ryan	2.8	7300
McCarthy, Denny	2.8	6600
Todd, Brendon	2.7	7900
Norlander, Henrik	2.7	7200
Theegala, Sahith	2.6	6800
Augenstein, John	2.6	6700
Lipsky, David	2.4	7200
Taylor, Nick	2.3	7000
Stuard, Brian	2.3	6900
Swafford, Hudson	2.2	6900
Frittelli, Dylan	2.1	6600
Knox, Russell	2.1	6500
Moore, Ryan	2.1	6800
Whaley, Vincent	1.9	6800
Sloan, Roger	1.9	7000
Putnam, Andrew	1.9	6600
NeSmith, Matthew	1.9	6600
Tway, Kevin	1.8	6800
Buckley, Hayden	1.5	6400
Hagy, Brandon	1.4	6300
Aphibarnrat, Kiradech	1.4	7100
Thompson, Michael	1.4	6400
Laird, Martin	1.3	6800
Werenski, Richy	1.3	6500
Hadley, Chesson	1.3	6600
Thompson, Davis	1.2	6100
Wu, Dylan	1.1	6200
Ryder, Sam	1.1	6700
Hodges, Lee	1.1	6200
Cook, Austin	1.1	6400
Chappell, Kevin	1.0	6100
McCumber, Tyler	0.9	6500
Riley, Davis	0.9	6000
Garnett, Brice	0.9	6700
Mullinax, Trey	0.9	6500
Lashley, Nate	0.9	6400
Long, Adam	0.9	6200
Hickok, Kramer	0.8	6300
Wu, Brandon	0.8	6200
Reeves, Seth	0.7	6300
Huh, John	0.7	6600
Tarren, Callum	0.7	6100
MccGreevy, Max	0.7	6100
Creel, Joshua	0.7	6200
Ogletree, Andy	0.7	6200
Streb, Robert	0.6	6900
Novak, Andrew	0.6	6000
Skinns, David	0.6	6100
Gutschewski, Scott	0.6	6000
Gligic, Michael	0.6	6200
Duncan, Tyler	0.6	6200
Barjon, Paul	0.6	6000
Kohles, Ben	0.6	6000
Young, Cameron	0.5	6100
Walker, Jimmy	0.5	6400
Kang, Sung	0.5	6500
Landry ,Andrew	0.5	6300
Noh, Seung-Yul	0.4	6100
Spaun, JJ	0.4	6000
Thompson, Curtis	0.4	6000
Drewitt, Brett	0.4	6000
Haas, Bill	0.3	6300
Van Pelt, Bo	0.3	6100
Kraft, Kelly	0.3	6000
Wolfe, Jared	0.3	6100
Watney, Nick	0.3	6300
McGirt, William	0.2	6000
Blixt, Jonas	0.2	6200
Cummins, Quade	0.2	6000
Gay, Brian	0.2	6000
Trolio, Cohen (a)	0.2	6000
Lopez-Chacarra, Eugenio (a)	0.1	6400
Gribble, Cody	0.1	6000
Saunders, Sam	0.1	6200
Reifers, Kyle	0.0	6000
Hirschman, Grant	0.0	6000
Sonnier, Greg	0.0	6100
Trainer, Martin	0.0	6000
Stadler, Kevin	0.0	6000

These final ownership figures for The Sanderson Farms are accurate as of 17:52 CST. Chalk may be a bit higher by lock, especially the top tier.

My picks for the Sanderson farms Championship

Top Tier: Sungjae IM, Garcia

Mid Tier: Davis, Hoffman, Wise

Low Tier: Stallings, List

Out in Left Play: Schenk

Frisky Risky Biscuit Play: * In Discord later Tonight ! *Risky

Thank you again for reviewing the The Sanderson Farms Championship Final Ownership Projections article, we really do appreciate it. I’ll be in the Discord Channel after this article comes out to answer any questions. Please review the articles by Sia, Patrick, Antonio and Isaiah to help determine your rosters and lineups.

Sia’s Secret Weapon for The Sanderson Farms Championship will be posted tonight in Discord. Sia and Joel have their livestream Tuesday nights at 8:00 EST, Spencer from Tee Off Sports has joined them with in depth roster building and model forecasting and Spencer will now be contributing an article and joining us in Discord so welcome Spencer and Tee Off Sports ! Antonio will have his BBB play and my frisky risky biscuit play will come out tonight in Discord along with any late breaking intel to help you break your contest slate.

As always, I hope to be with you on Sunday afternoon, in the money. You can also come and hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before the lock!

4 years ago 0 comments

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PGA DFS Picks: Sanderson Farms Championship

Brian Tulloch 4 years ago

written by Brian Tulloch

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Sanderson Farms Championship and helping you find some winning teams!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

Relatively weak field of 144 golfers
Cut: Top 65 and ties
Defending Champ: Sergio Garcia (-19 over Peter Malnati’s 18)
2019 champ: Sebastian Munoz (-18)
The course: CC of Jackson (Jackson, MS)
- Par 72: 7,460 yards
- Parkland course with trees lining tough-to-hit fairways
- Rough not too penal, but approach angles are important
- Wider, open Bermuda greens that run pure
- Course should remain soft without much mind, and scoring could go low
- Six of last seven winners have all been first time winners on the PGA TOUR
- New guys (last year’s part-timers) have a shot
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, Par 5s Gained, SG: OTT, Opportunities Gained, Birdie or Better%, SG: Putting (Bermuda)

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Sungjae Im (DK $10,300) – Im makes a lot of sense as the guy to get the most exposure to (in the top tier) when considering the full range of metrics, course history and form. He’s finished second here (in 2019) and he hasn’t missed a cut in forever. Im is a consistent player who controls the ball well off the tee – and he shouldn’t have any problem scoring here given his strategic ability to dismantle a golf course. He’s a fine play in all formats.

Sergio Garcia (DK $10,500) – Sergio – the event’s defending champ – has the most extensive resume of any golfer in the field, coming off a week where he had the most extensive record at the Ryder Cup on the world stage. This course and its approachable greens are going look a whole lot easier than anything did at Whistling Straits, so I’ll have ample shares of him this week in GPPs.

Mito Pereira (DK $9,900) – Pereira is solid off the tee and has been a mainstay on leaderboards since joining the PGA last year. Since he won three times on the Korn Ferry Tour and has name recognition, he’s going to get chalky, and the guys on the breakdown had him somewhere around 20% ownership. He has top-six finishes in three of his last four starts and should be a fine cash game and single-entry play.

Also consider: Sam Burns (GPP), Will Zalatoris (GPP) Corey Conners (cash), Keegan Bradley

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Sebastian Munoz (DK $9,300) – Munoz is 4-for-4 in his last four tries here, but we must be a little concerned with his hideous performance at the Fortinet Championship, but he’s in a great spot to bounce back on a course he likes. I’ll have some shares, but I won’t go all-in after what he did to my lineups in the new season’s first event.

Charley Hoffman (DK $9,000) – Hoffman might get popular because he’s one of the most recognizable names in this price range, he’s got solid course history at the Sanderson Farms, and he posted a bunch of top 25s last season. I’m fine using him in cash and will have some exposure in GPPs.

Cameron Davis (DK $9,100) – He’s $1K more expensive than last year after finishing this tournament T6 in 2020, but the price increase is worth it – largely because he’s proven to be a much better golfer this past season. He hasn’t posted a top 10 finish sine he won at the Rocket Mortgage, but this is a god a spot as any for him to get back in the Top 15 and use his ample talents to take apart this course.

Seamus Power (DK $8,800) – The 34-year-old Power looks appropriate for cash games and single entry and is coming off the best stretch of golf in his career, including a win at the Barbasol in July 2021 and a bunch of top 20s in the weeks leading up. Sia had him listed in his Initial Picks and the team seems to approve of using him in a bunch of formats.

Matthew Wolff (DK $8,500) – I LOVED Spencer’s breakdown of Wolff and was thinking many of the same things about him when I saw the price, which bakes in his inherent volatility. He’s a perfect GPP play with winning upside, and during a better stretch of play could be pried with the $10K guys as noted by our stats guru.

C.T. Pan (DK $8,100) – Pan is one of my favorite golfers to target in GPPs, and not just because I called him as my bargain pick at the Olympics, when he stormed back after an opening round 74 to shoot 66-66-63 and snag the Bronze after an epic seven-man playoff. Pan’s course management, ball-striking and putting are all solid, and he’ll be in the mix for my GPP builds.

Patrick Rodgers (DK $7,600) – Rodgers is a talented player with the ability to go low on any day, but he struggles to put together four good rounds. He’s made strides since missing the cut by two strokes here in 2020. This course doesn’t have as many pitfalls as the typical PGA Tour venue, so I’m anticipating less frustration and better overall performance form a guy who’s priced for upside.

Also consider: Carlos Ortiz (GPP), Aaron Wise, Matthias Schwab (GPP), Doug Ghim (GPP), Keith Mitchell, Taylor Pendrith, Scott Stallings (GPP)

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Luke List (DK $7,500) – From a distance and ball-striking perspective, List is one of my classic go-to GPP plays, largely because his putting is way too heinous to consider playing in cash games. I love his upside (despite missing the cut by a stroke in 2020) and the price this week is fair enough to get decent exposure in large-field GPPs – he’s just a little too risky for single-entry.

Chad Ramey (DK $7,000) – Recency bias will keep the masses off Ramey this week, but the rookie has the chops to play well at a venue where he actually does have some experience. The Fulton, Mississippi native finished T26 here in 2018 after shooting 66 in a Monday qualifier and getting in.

Rory Sabbatini (DK $6,900) – Sabbs played solid golf at the end last season (T10 at the Wyndham Championship and three straight made cuts in EURO events) after winning silver in the Olympics – an epic performance that followed four straight missed cuts. I think he’s a great bargain value at this price and he’s got really god course history at CC of Jackson.

Adam Schenk (DK $6,700) – Sia and I are both interested in Schenk this week as a guy who usually flies under the radar in GPPs and has posted some good finishes at Sanderson Farms, including a T7 in 2018. His solo fourth at the Barracuda and T31 at the Northern Trust in August are also promising.

Denny McCarthy (DK $6,600) – McCarthy has posted top 20 finishes in each of his last three starts at the Sanderson Farms Championship and keeps getting it done with the putter here. He had a rough 2021, but he plays well at this venue and won’t break the bank at this price point in your GPPs.

More value golfers to consider: Scott Piercy, Joel Dahmen, Lanto Griffin, Lucas Herbert (GPP), Brandt Snedeker (GPP), Henrik Norlander, David Lipsky (GPP), Matt Wallace, Greyson Sigg, Hudson Swafford, John Augenstein (GPP), Dylan Frittelli (GPP), J.T. Poston

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Dawie Van der Walt (DK $6,500) – Van der Walt is a large-field GPP play only and I wouldn’t think about playing him in single-entry, but the 38-year-old South African has a tour card and the game to play well here. He’ll look at get it going gain after a solid stretch to close out last year’s Korn Ferry Tour.

Wyndham Clark (DK $6,400) – Clark is long off the tee and shouldn’t be flummoxed by the rough too much this week if he sprays it around a little, as bomb-and-gauge is a little more in play than usual. I love the low price and upside for him at this event, where he’s made the cut in three of four tries.

Anirban Lahiri (DK $6,200) – He’s made the cut both times here and is one of the safer plays among the super-cheap golfers. I’ll be using him to close out a few GPP entries where I’ve maxed out the pricing in my other selections.

Additional GPP punts: Peter Malnati, Tyler McCumber, Brandon Hagy, Seung-Yul Noh

4 years ago 0 comments

PGA Premium

Tee 2 Green PGA DFS Picks: Sanderson Farms Championship

brucegray19722@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by brucegray19722@gmail.com

Hello everybody, and welcome to the initial installment of ‘Tee 2 Green,’ a new article that I will be producing for Win Daily Sports weekly to give some extra insight into the DFS world of golf. My focus will be to discuss, decipher and dissect some of my preferred targets throughout the various price ranges, and I will always provide my opinion with a data-intensive outlook that you can see first-hand if you use the weekly model that I provide free of charge. You can find that here.

Course – Country Club of Jackson

7,461 Yards – Par 72 – Greens: Bermuda

The Country Club of Jackson is a unique venue to try and handicap from a DFS or gambling perspective. Originally designed by John Fought and Mike Gogel, the layout pays homage to Donald Ross by mimicking his typical quirks throughout the property. That means undulating greens will play a heavy factor at the facility, and it will require golfers to miss shots to the correct part of the fairways and greens to find success. The ability to work the ball both ways should be seen as a benefit, and while the rough should be considered non-existent, the undulation and set up of the course will still require misses to come to the correct side if players want a legitimate chance to score on most holes.

Unfortunately, that is about where our help stops from trying to handicap this statistically. I want to preface my breakdown by saying this course has been difficult for me to figure out in the past because the numerical data doesn’t seem to equal what is being shown on paper. Strokes gained putting and proximity from 100-150 yards continue to jump out like a sore thumb, but I’ve noticed the golfers winning the tournaments every year are some of the worst in those categories during that season.

To highlight that viewpoint a little more, let’s take a deeper look into the past three champions since 2018. As I mentioned, putting has been very impactful in deciding the winner, but Sergio Garcia, Sebastian Munoz and Cameron Champ all graded outside of the top-100 in putting last year. Conversely, and maybe even more alarming, the two most significant differentials when looking at approach shot distribution here versus tour average have come from 100-125 yards and 125-150 yards. When we break down each golfers’ finish during the year they won the event, the picture gets murky fast. Garcia finished last year 92nd from 100-125 and 144th from 125-150, Munoz was a more respectable 61st and 29th in 2019 and Champ was awful in 2018, ranking 187th and 173rd.

Look, I am the king of telling people not to overreact to limited sample sizes because they often are aberrational results beyond anything else, but the lack of historical production from those two ranges from the winners piqued my curiosity. Yes, the plurality of approaches are coming from 100-150 yards, but what if the most important shots are coming elsewhere? I decided to dive into that a little deeper, and I think I figured out a potential answer.

The last five winners have combined to shoot 97-under par during their wins. That highlights a birdie fest, but it doesn’t tell you where the scoring is coming. It isn’t going to blow anyone’s mind when I say the four par-fives are most impactful to find success, but what if I told you it is so much so that it accounts for 47.5% of the winning output? That’s substantial, right? Well, what if I also told you that another 11.5% is coming from the 15th hole – a hole that plays as a short par-four and is drivable off the tee. That would certainly raise some eyebrows that 59% of the scoring is coming during a five-hole stretch, especially when projections would suggest that the average golfer is only birding them 33.68% of the time, giving us a massive disparity between the winners and those that barely make the cut.

So with that thought in mind, I built a model to highlight those five must-have holes and came up with the following:

Proximity From 200+ Yards (20%) – This will lead me to my next category, but the real scoring chances seem to be coming for those who can control their long irons.
Par-Five Birdie or Better (25%) – As I mentioned, 47.5% of the winning scores are coming here.
Short Par-Four Efficiency (7.5%) – That takes the par-four 15th and even a little of the par-four first. I didn’t include that first hole into any of my metrics, but the ability to play shorter par-fours well will be critical.
Total Driving (17.5%) – That is an 80/20 split of distance over accuracy.
Overall Birdie or Better (10%) – I want birdie-makers that can get hot.
Strokes Gained Total Donald Ross (10%) – These types of courses are always similar.
GIR (10%) – You need to hit greens in regulation if you want to provide yourself a chance to make birdie.

High-Priced DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Will Zalatoris ($10,800) – Pricing looks very solid at the top of the board. I think you could nitpick some of these golfers being a spot higher or lower when it comes to their price tag, but the top four players of Sam Burns ($11,000), Will Zalatoris ($10,800), Sergio Garcia ($10,500) and Sungjae Im ($10,300) are the same top four I have in my model (just a marginally different order). When pricing is spot-on like that, it can be challenging to find an edge, but I like Zalatoris because I think he provides the most complete package for all contests. The American becomes the number one golfer in my model when I remove the Ross attachment from the weight – a stat that is slightly skewy as it is.

Sungjae Im ($10,300) – Sungjae Im is a Bermuda specialist that will get a boost in ownership because of that, but it is worth noting that he has averaged 2.4 shots gained per event with his irons over his last nine starts. Im ranks inside the top-25 of my model in proximity from 200+ yards, par-five birdie or better, overall birdie or better, short par-four efficiency and strokes gained total on Donald Ross tracks, making him another target that is playable in all builds.

Potential MME Pivot – Sergio Garcia ($10,500)

$9,000 Range

Cameron Davis ($9,100) – My favorite play in this section is Cameron Davis at $9,100. Sixth here last year, which isn’t the be-all, end-all for a course that doesn’t have great rollover effect, but his distance and birdie-making prowess shows why he did find success here in 2019 and 2020. Davis is currently under 10 percent owned and is the second-largest differential in my model when comparing my rank versus his ownership projection of a golfer priced $9,000 or above. Only Sergio Garcia has a more significant difference.

Additional Thoughts: Keegan Bradley ($9,700), Cameron Tringale ($9,400), Harold Varner III ($9,200) and Charley Hoffman ($9,000) all feel playable in cash. Mito Periera ($9,900) is the number one player in my upside model, but I think his ownership projection makes him more of a single-entry target than that of an MME-style build.

$8,000 Range

Carlos Ortiz ($8,600) – I keep waiting for Carlos Ortiz’s game to flash again, but two top-fives here since 2018 is a pretty good indicator that he likes this venue. Ortiz has gained strokes with his irons in seven of his previous nine starts and off the tee in his past five. The fact that he has made 10 of the past 12 cuts only adds to the luster, and it feels like a big result might be just around the corner.

Matthew Wolff ($8,500) – Consider Matthew Wolff a GPP-only play, but the potential is there for him to take down an MME for you at roughly 10 percent ownership. His floor might be that of a golfer that comes into the week having missed back-to-back cuts, but his upside is that of a $10,000 golfer. Expect that volatility with what you might receive, but I find the risk to be worth the reward.

Cash Play: Seamus Power ($8,800)

$7,000 Range

Keith Mitchell ($7,800) – If distance and off the tee play is going to matter at the Sanderson Farms, why not Keith Mitchell? Like Sungjae Im, Mitchell is a Bermuda specialist that tends to pop out of nowhere, but he has shown life recently with multiple top-10s in his past four starts.

Taylor Pendrith ($7,800) – We still don’t have enough data to form a concrete opinion, but Taylor Pendrith looks like the real deal from the limited sample that we do have in front of us. The Canadian ranks first in both distance and strokes gained off the tee in this field, and while I do have some concerns about his long irons, the par-five scoring has been brilliant. Pendrith can be deployed a little safer across the board than the other two names in this range.

Luke List ($7,500) – The stats are trending better than the current form looks on paper for Luke List, and it is the same blueprint I am trying to find over and over again. Give me distance, long iron play and the ability to score at the five critical holes.

Additional Thoughts: Chad Ramey ($7,000) burned everyone in his last start at the Fortinet Championship, but the fact that he is priced as essentially an $8,000 golfer when we look at the top-20 market is pretty telling.

$6,000 Range

Grayson Sigg ($6,900) – Grayson Sigg is the eighth-best golfer in my model for this field when it comes to current form over the past 10 weeks. His GIR percentage and long iron play might leave something to be desired, but we are just trying to find potential when we get here, and Sigg has shown that early in his career when it comes to making birdies.

Hudson Swafford ($6,900) –Hudson Swafford is a good Bermuda player that excels off the tee. Burning everyone at the Fortinet has lowered his ownership total, but I like this course better for his upside potential.

Kevin Tway ($6,800) -Five top-30s in his last seven. Seven made cuts in his previous eight. We have seen Kevin Tway excel before on these driver-friendly tests.

John Augenstein ($6,700) – John Augenstein has the amateur pedigree to continue this recent burst of success.

Additional Dart Throws To Consider: Dylan Frittelli ($6,600), Andrew Putnam ($6,600), Peter Malnati ($6,500), Tyler McCumber ($6,500), Brandon Hagy ($6,300), Wyndham Clark ($6,400), Anirban Lahiri ($6,200) and Davis Thompson ($6,100). Please note that these are highly volatile options that might possess a higher ceiling but also a lower floor.

4 years ago 0 comments

PGA Premium

The Sanderson Farms Championship: Initial Picks

Sia 4 years ago

written by Sia

The new PGA Tour year is well underway and this week we make a stop in Mississippi for the Sanderson Farms Invitational. Feels like I’ve been saying a lot these days, but this week we will have yet another birdie-fest. Usually that means almost the entire field is in play, but there will definitely be an added emphasis to golfers who are long off the tee. We’re always looking for good APP and the shorter irons will definitely be emphasized here. For more on the course and each golfer, tune into our Tuesday night PGA Livestream at 8:00. Now let’s get to the Initial Picks.

Sam Burns (11000) – Burns being the highest priced golfer tells you what you need to know about this field, but he has been very good lately and has shown the ability to pop at any moment. His history here is pretty weak other than a 3^rd place finish in 2019. I also like Sungjae in this range.

Mito Pereira (9900) – Likely to be very popular so be ready to pivot in GPP’s if the ownership percentage gets too high, but this guy has plenty of upside and flashed more than a few times last season and this season at the Fortinet (3^rd place). He’s well above average in almost every metric that matters to me this week.

Keegan Bradley (9700) – I don’t love the price but Keegan is an elite ball striker and his PUTT troubles could be minimized at a course that has a history of rewarding bad putters. He was 4^th here in 2020.

Cam Davis (9100) – A great course fit who has shown upside both in his recent play and at The Sanderson Farms. I really like his trajectory at The Sanderson Farms as in his only three years here he has gone MC, 28^th and 6^th.

Charley Hoffman (9000) – Certainly not a sexy pick but if there were ever a field for Charley to contend in, it would be here at The Sanderson Farms Championship. He is good OTT and great on APP and rates out well with the PUTT and with BOB gained. Finishes of 6^th and 23^rd over the last two years.

Seamus Power (8800) – I think the pricetag may keep people off of Power and I think that makes him a pretty solid GPP play. He has a lot of experience here for a younger golfer and has had solid finishes. Recent form isn’t great but plenty of upside in the BOB Gained department. I will also consider Aaron Wise and Carlos Ortiz in this range as GPP plays only.

Patrick Rodgers (7600) – A risky play for sure as the metrics don’t jump off the page and his course history isn’t great either. I do think he’s a good course fit however and I’m willing to take a chance on a guy who has shown some upside over the last few tournaments.

Luke List (7500) – If you think PUTT is neutralized this week then I have the golfer for you: meet Luke. List is great OTT and on APP and can hit it a long way, but he is borderline hilarious with the PUTT. His missed his last two cuts here as well so tread carefully. A GPP play only.

Henrik Norlander (7200) – He’s been very good as of late and his main trouble spot is the short game, which shouldn’t come into play too much at The Sanderson Farms. Finished 4^th in 2021.

Matt Wallace (7100) – His play as of late hasn’t been good on either the PGA or European Tour, but his upside is clearly better than most in this price range. Hopefully the long break has Matt tweaking his game a bit and I’m willing to take the chance in GPPs.

Rory Sabbatini (6900) – All you really need to do with Rory is look at his course history and recent history and you’ll see he’s a solid play in the 6k range. Rory was 10^th at The Wyndham, 2^nd at The Olympics and finished 12^th and 20^th at his last two efforts at The Sanderson Farms.

Brandon Hagy (6300) – A dart throw who has shown flashes, albeit sparingly. His strength is OTT. He’s MC’d here his last three efforts but finished 18^th and 14^th the two years prior to that.

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – Current record is 43-12.

4 years ago 0 comments

PGA Premium

The Fortinet Final Ownership Projections

Steven Polardi 4 years ago

written by Steven Polardi

Welcome everyone to the Fortinet Final Ownership Projections, aka we used to be the Safeway open, aka The Korn Ferry Debutante Ball. This week dispersed among names like Rham and Matsuyama are names like Blixt and Skinn and Sigg. There are some contenders from the Korn Ferry tour and there are some pretenders. Distinguishing between the two will go a long way towards separating the bill collector from your new broker opening a new CD account for you.

The narratives include why is Rahm playing here ? Perhaps it’s a tune up for the Ryder Cup next week, or it’s just that he could lap this field 3 times while napping in between holes. he is that good right now. Kevin Na is angry for being snubbed at missing out on a Ryder Cup position, at 10,000 salary, I could care less how outraged he is, if he beats me by not rostering him so be it. I think the pundits are buying the Horshel victory at the European Championship last week and Billie’s statement that he was proving Captain Stricker wrong. He may be wrong, Billie may have not gotten that phone call, but Stricker is still Captain and Billie can get to the Ryder Cup by purchasing a four day pass to the event. Twitter went bonkers because Captain America, or Patrick Reed (when not wearing his cape) was left off as well. I heard he allegedly uses the cape to hide addressing the ball just a few inches closer to the hole.

It’s great to be back after such a long lay off, 11 whole days, and this is the start of the 21-22 PGA season. I hope we can continue where we left off and show green screens everywhere as we have been doing. It was really hard to pull away from that Raiders/ Baltimore game Sunday night to start pulling metrics for this week, but that’s what we do.

There was a slight issue with all the new Korn Ferry entries, some had decent metrics, some who earned exemptions for various reasons didn’t have much history, and the program refused to recognize players like Gutschewski, so we had to hand feed the data into the program one by one.

Let’s take a look at your Fortinet Final Ownership:

OWNERSHIP PROJECTION
PLAYER	OWN %	SALARY
Rahm, John	33.7	12100
Pereira, Mito	24.9	8000
Varner III, Harold	24.2	9100
Zalatoris,Will	20.9	10500
Ghim, Doug	19.6	7900
Simpson, Webb	18.5	10800
Hoffman, Charley	17.6	8800
Na, Kevin	15.8	10000
Champ, Cameron	15.4	9000
McNealy, Maverick	15.3	8600
Munoz, Sebastian	15.3	9200
Reavie, Chez	14.6	8500
Grillo, Emiliano	13.4	8900
List, Luke	12.9	7100
Perez, Pat	12.8	7900
Homa, Max	12.1	8700
Swafford, Hudson	11.5	7200
Steele, Brendan	11.3	7400
Higgs, Harry	11.2	7600
Matsuyama, Hideki	10.8	11000
Pendrith, Taylor	10.3	7400
Straka, Sepp	9.7	7600
Tringale, Cameron	9.4	9700
Gooch, Talor	9.4	8000
Lebioda, Hank	8.3	7100
Hadwin, Adam	8.1	7800
Herbert, Lucas	7.8	7700
Kim, Si Woo	7.7	9300
Rodgers, Patrick	7.4	7000
Bramlett, Joseph	7.4	7300
Kizzire, Patton	7.1	7500
Ramey,Chad	6.9	7000
Jaeger, Stephan	6.9	8200
Moore, Taylor	6.3	7700
Sloan, Roger	6.2	7800
Aphibarnrat, Kiradech	5.7	7300
Svensson, Adam	5.6	7200
Leishman, Marc	5.3	9500
Hoge, Tom	5.3	7100
Griffin, Lanto	5.2	7300
Schenk, Adam	5.2	7300
Moore, Ryan	5.2	7500
Howell III, Charlie	5.1	7700
Stuard, Brian	5.1	7600
Todd, Brendon	4.8	8400
Rai, Aaron	4.8	7400
Frittelli, Dylan	4.1	7500
Stanley, Kyle	4.1	6700
Merritt, Troy	4.1	7200
Ryder, Sam	3.8	6800
Pan, CT	3.7	7500
Thompson, Michael	3.6	6900
Whaley, Vincent	3.4	6600
Mickelson, Phil	3.4	8100
Smalley, Alex	3.2	7000
Theegala, Sahith	3.1	7400
Knox, Russell	3.1	7100
Hahn, James	3.1	6800
Snedeker, Brandt	3.1	8300
Percy, Cameron	3.1	6800
Hagy, Brandon	2.9	6700
Hoag, Bo	2.9	6800
Garnett, Brice	2.9	6700
McCarthy, Denny	2.9	6700
Sigg, Greyson	2.9	7100
Taylor, Nick	2.9	7300
Hubbard, Mark	2.8	6500
Burgoon, Bronson	2.7	6600
Mullinax, Trey	2.6	6600
Redman, Doc	2.1	7200
Dufner, Jason	2.1	6800
Hodges, Lee	1.9	6600
Piercy, Scott	1.9	7000
Creel. Joshua	1.9	6700
Armour, Ryan	1.8	6900
Kucher, Matt	1.8	7000
Wu, Brandon	1.7	6400
Tway, Kevin	1.7	6600
Putnam, Andrew	1.6	6900
Huh, John	1.4	6600
Hardy, Nick	1.4	6200
Buckley, Hayden	1.4	6800
Hickok, Kramer	1.4	6700
Lipsky, David	1.4	6700
McCumber, Tyler	1.3	6200
Stallings, Scott	1.3	6900
Poston, JT	1.3	7200
Long, Adam	1.2	6600
Landry ,Andrew	1.2	6500
Kohles, Ben	1.1	6400
Hadley, Chesson	1.1	7000
Herman, Jim	1.1	6500
Wu, Dylan	0.9	6400
Barjon, Paul	0.9	6200
Willett, Danny	0.9	6900
Spaun, JJ	0.9	6400
Malnati, Peter	0.9	6100
NeSmith, Matthew	0.9	6400
Lee, Danny	0.9	6400
Chappell, Kevin	0.9	6500
Duncan, Tyler	0.8	6500
Riley, Davis	0.8	6400
Clark, Wyndham	0.8	6400
Hossler, Beau	0.8	6300
Cook, Austin	0.8	6300
Van Der Walt, Dawie	0.7	6300
Reeves, Seth	0.6	6300
Taylor, Vaughn	0.6	6100
Tarren, Callum	0.5	6300
Gligic, Michael	0.5	6500
Kitayama, Kurt	0.5	6300
Seiffert, Chase	0.5	6100
Gutschewski, Scott	0.4	6000
Drewitt, Brett	0.4	6000
Martin, Ben	0.4	6200
Watney, Nick	0.4	6100
Uihlein, Peter	0.4	6900
Augenstein, John	0.4	6400
Novak, Andrew	0.4	6500
Young, Cameron	0.4	6500
Haas, Bill	0.4	6200
Pettit, Turk	0.4	6100
Lashley, Nate	0.4	6200
Baddeley, Aaron	0.4	6200
Hearn, David	0.4	6000
Holmes, JB	0.4	6300
Skinns, David	0.3	6600
Smotherman, Austin	0.3	6300
Wolfe, Jared	0.3	6200
Yu, Kevin	0.3	6800
Suh, Justin	0.3	6400
Van Pelt, Bo	0.3	6300
Knous, Jim	0.3	6000
Lovemark, Jamie	0.3	6200
Brown, Scott	0.3	6100
Byrd, Jonathan	0.3	6000
Trainer, Martin	0.3	6000
Lower, Justin	0.2	6500
Thompson, Curtis	0.2	6200
Blixt, Jonas	0.2	6100
Kang, Sung	0.2	6400
Kraft, Kelly	0.2	6000
Noh, Seung-Yul	0.2	6100
Ventura, Kris	0.2	6100
Duncan, Michael	0.2	6000
McGreevy, Max	0.1	6100
McGirt, William	0.1	6000
Stroud, Chris	0.1	6000
Cummins, Quade	0.1	6100
Trahan, DJ	0.1	6100
Potter Jr., Ted	0.1	6100
McCarthy, Josh	0.1	6000
Kim, Michael	0.1	6000
O’Hair, Sean	0.1	6200
Werbylo, Trevor	0.0	6200
Stadler, Kevin	0.0	6000

0These final ownership figures for The Fortinet are accurate as of 18:01 CST. Chalk may be a bit higher by lock. Expect Rahm to go slightly higher.

My picks for the Fortinet Championship

Top Tier: Rham. Simpson.

Mid Tier: Perez, Gooch, Mcnealy

Low Tier: Putnam, Nick Taylor, Sneds

Out in Left Play: Trey Mullinax

Frisky Risky Biscuit Play: * In Discord later Tonight ! *Risky

Thank you again for reviewing the The Fortinet Championship Final Ownership Projections article, we really do appreciate it. I’ll be in the Discord Channel after this article comes out to answer any questions. Please review the articles by Sia, Patrick, Antonio and Isaiah to help determine your rosters and lineups.

Sia’s Secret Weapon for The Fortinet Championship will be posted tonight in Discord. He ended up with a 43-12 record for having to take a golfer with very bad metrics that no one wants to roster. That is close to 80% winners where pundits normally cringe at the thought of having to pick a golfer. Those of you who play golf DFS know what kind of a record that is. Antonio has been rolling with his BBB play in Discord, and I hit a streak every now and then with the Frisky Biscuit play. Joel, aka Draft Master Flex has allegedly begun negotiations to buy Draft Kings since he has most of their money anyway. I am negotiating to lease a food cart near DraftKings headquarters with my winnings…..

Sia and Joel have their livestream Tuesday nights at 8:00 EST, Spencer from Tee Off Sports has joined them with in depth roster building and model forecasting and Spencer has correctly picked the last three outrights, including Cantlay over Rahm in the championship. Sia and Joel have been hitting the first round leaders with their picks, if you aren’t listening to their podcast on Tuesday evenings, you are giving away money.

This is my favorite time of the year, we get to sweat golf all day Thursday then play the NFL Showdown Thursday nights, Stix Pix and Stoweby, 2 Lock and Adam have hammered week one football. Then on Fridays we have the cut sweat followed by a college football game. Sunday’s are the best, sweating the final holes with the NFL games going on and then once golf is done another Sunday night Showdown with the NFL. These are great and wonderful times and a perfect way to build a bankroll with solid intel and good money management. I wish all of you a very profitable 2021-2022.

As always, I hope to be with you on Sunday afternoon, in the money. You can also come and hang out in the Win Daily Sports Discord Chat to talk it out with everyone before the lock!

4 years ago 0 comments

PGA

The Fortinet DFS Breakdown

Jon Jansen 4 years ago

written by Jon Jansen

The PGA Tour begins a new season this weekend at The Fortinet Championship. Sia Nejad, Joel and Spencer Aguiar give a full DFS Breakdown with DFS plays and betting picks on the Tour Championship DFS breakdown!

Sia Nejad – @SiaNejad

Joel – @DraftMasterFlex

Spencer – @TeeOffSports

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=omC8cut2P4E

Make sure to check out more DFS and betting content at WinDailySports.com

4 years ago 0 comments

PGA

The Fortinet Championship: Initial Picks

Sia 4 years ago

written by Sia

The new PGA Tour year is already underway as a full field of golfers descend upon The Fortinet Championship. This tournament comes with some headliners like Jon Rahm, but also features plenty of new names who have just obtained their PGA Tour cards. Tune into the Win Daily PGA Show at 8:00 TONIGHT for everything on all the players and course dynamics. In short, I’ll be looking for a combination of ball strikers and scorers (BOB Gained and Par 5 scoring in particular). Now, let’s get to the Fortinet Championship Initial Picks.

Jon Rahm (12100) – The best in the world coming out to play this tournament is a bit of surprise, but I expect his foot to be on the pedal and the main reason to fade him is if you’re trying to get different in a big GPP.

Will Zalatoris (10500) – We saw WillyZ cool off a bit toward the back end of the PGA Tour season and a lot of that had to do with the putter. Over the last two tournaments he’s gained pretty significantly with the putter so I’m willing to dive back in on the rookie of the year.

Charley Hoffman (8800) – Hoffman’s game was a little erratic toward the back half of the season but there’s no question he’s an elite ball striker when he’s on. I think he has a shot to contend in this field. You’ll notice I didn’t write up anyone in the 9k range, but Hoffman actually belongs in that price range.

Emiliano Grillo (8900) – Grillo is a great course fit in spite of middling results at The Fortinet Championship (previously the Safeway). I’m going to lean on the ball striking upside and hope for a decent putter. I’m guessing he won’t be rostered much and therefore I like him more as a GPP play only.

Maverick McNealy (8600) – The numbers haven’t been great as of late and his price is a bit high, but I’m hoping that makes him a somewhat unpopular play. If so, I’ll throw him into some GPP’s as I’m a fan of his scoring and birdie upside.

Chez Reavie (8500) – The putting can go sideways with Reavie but the ball striking is great. He’s made his last 4 cuts here and recent form looks very solid. A nice course fit at the Fortinet Championship.

Mito Pereira (8000) – He burst onto the PGA Tour scene a few months back. He’s tailed off a bit but certainly has the upside to contend here. The putter is likely to be the main issue with Mito. Other than that he rates out well. I only like him for GPP.

Doug Ghim (7900) – Pretty much a perfect course fit who showed promise last year with a 14th place finish. His putter is a big issue, but he’s been ok in that department as of late. If he’s good with the putter, don’t be surprised if he is in the mix on Sunday.

Brian Stuard (7600) – A short and accurate striker who can really putt. His main issue is that he may not score as well on the Par 5s as some of these other guys, but I like his all-around game and I expect him to make the cut.

Adam Schenk (7300) – You may recall I was on Schenk a handful of times last year and I’ll try him again at the Fortinet Championship as well. He comes in just above average OTT and APP, but he’s Top 10 in SG Par 5 and 12^th in PUTT. I like this price especially if he’s super low owned.

Chad Ramey (7000) – I’m throwing Ramey into the article because that’s what the bookmakers are telling me to do. For some reason Ramey is 70 to 1, but he is in a Draftkings price range with golfers who are mostly 100 to 1 or longer. These types of discrepancies should not be ignored. Add to that Ramey has been very good on the KFT Tour and is a good ball striker.

Bo Hoag (6800) – I’m convinced this guy is better than people think and I’m hoping we see it this week. He rates out great in my model and I think there is some upside at this price. He rates out well on APP, BOB Gained and SG Par 5. His history here isn’t bad either. A GPP play only.

Mark Hubbard (6500) – In this field Hubbard should probably be in the 7k range. He’s no superstar but he’s Top 30 on APP, PUTT, ARG, Good Drives and SG Par 5.

Jim Herman (6500) – We are definitely in the punt range, but I’m a pretty big fan of Herman. He’s been great OTT and solid on APP. He’s also Top 25 in BOB Gained and SG Par 5.

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – Current record is 43-12. No SW with the short field and no cut.

If you haven’t already, subscribe to Win Daily Sports on YouTube and at the Apple Podcasts and check out all the content at windailysports.com. We’re already hitting big with our NFL content and you are going to want to be a part of that. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday night for all the Fortinet Championship lineup adjustments, late breaking news and weather reports.

4 years ago 0 comments

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PGA DFS

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Course – TPC Summerlin

High-Priced DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Favorite Cash Play– Webb Simpson ($10,200)

$9,000 Range

Additional Thoughts: I am okay with the idea of using any of the options in this section now that Kevin Na has withdrawn. Hideki Matsuyama ($9,500) and Sungjae Im ($9,200) are both very playable.

$8,000 Range

Other Thoughts: Cameron Tringale ($8,500) and Paul Casey ($8,900) will be sprinkled into builds, but I am going so heavy in the $9,000 range that I don’t have a ton of room for multiple selections here. Reed and Niemann are two of the better upside choices.

$7,000 Range

$6,000 Range

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Course – Country Club of Jackson

High-Priced DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Potential MME Pivot – Sergio Garcia ($10,500)

$9,000 Range

$8,000 Range

Cash Play: Seamus Power ($8,800)

$7,000 Range

Additional Thoughts: Chad Ramey ($7,000) burned everyone in his last start at the Fortinet Championship, but the fact that he is priced as essentially an $8,000 golfer when we look at the top-20 market is pretty telling.

$6,000 Range

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