pga championship

Coming off the Wyndham Clark 75/1 win, the AT&T Byron Nelson ended more with a whimper than a roar for our picks last week. We had leaned heavily into the Enhanced Outright Win number on Scottie Scheffler at +450. This remained for some time despite the withdrawal of second favourite Jordan Spieth. A raft of other names followed including mid-range options Spaun, Hubbard, and Smalley amongst others. Scheffler was of course there all week as expected, although an even par 3rd round proved a huge hurdle to his chances in the final round. We also notably had Ryan Palmer as joint leader entering the final day. Selected at 150/1, the Texan found some hometown advantage to complement some promising statistics to make a great charge at the title. Let’s hope we can secure a few more winning hopes this week with our PGA Championship picks!

Course Analysis

Oak Hill Country Club, specifically the East Course, plays host this week. This venue has already played host to three PGA Championship, three US Opens, a Ryder Cup, and the US Amateur. This may imply that there is a myriad of data available for our PGA Championship picks. Those expectations should be somewhat tempered.

Significantly, the course underwent an extensive renovation at the hands of Andrew Green to restore Oak Hill closer to the original Donald Ross vision. Completed in 2020, this restoration should see quite a different course greet players this week. This was previously a test where narrow fairways littered by thousands of large tees saw a huge emphasis on driving accuracy. The removal of hundreds of trees opens up new lines of sight to players.

Explicitly, bunkering has been described as “aggressive”. These are not only strategically placed, but are almost links-like in nature. Mounds surrounding the edges and strong bunker faces will prove a true penalty if found. The rough is thick and it will make little difference whether you miss the fairway by 1 yard or 20 yards. All greens have been completely redone, extensively reshaped, and replaced with pure bentgrass. Holes 5, 6, and 15 are all significantly changed. This is a different golf course and should be treated as such.

There has been some great content produced by the Fried Egg and Golf Digest on these changes. Certainly, I highly recommend watching these to gain an understanding of the course.

Oak Hill Course Comps

Obviously, a newly redesigned golf course provides some challenges in finding related course form. Winged Foot (host of the 2020 US Open) and Bethpage Black (2019 PGA Championship and The Barclays 2016, 2012) provide the most obvious direct examples. Last year’s host Southern Hills should provide a decent correlation, in both approach metrics but also the likely wind we will see this weekend.

Quail Hollow should provide at least some noteworthy comparison, with comparative long approach metrics. Innisbrook Resort and the Copperhead Course holds a similar standing in that regard.

For bentgrass putting, last weeks tournament at TPC Craig Ranch holds the same grass type. Similarly, Wilmington Country Club and Augusta National can be used as a putting guide.

Key Statistics for our PGA Championship Picks

Although the restoration project does lend to an increased emphasis on driving distance compared to previous iterations hosted here, I don’t want to completely discount driving accuracy completely this week. There are many paths to the top of the mountain. However, I do believe the path to victory becomes somewhat narrower (pun intended) for those who lack distance off the tee. Markedly, the penal rough and surrounding mounds will see a distinct advantage for those who can regularly find the fairway.

I think we can also get a little more nuanced in how we treat driving distance this week. With potentially softer conditions due to winter and a wet Spring, runout may be less than at other majors. Also, there are some holes where a compulsory carry of 290 yards+ over hazards is required to gain a distinct advantage. Therefore, I prefer to use Carry Distance to a straight Driving Distance metric.

Following, we again expect a disproportionate number of approach shots to occur from over 200+ yards. 1/3 of approach shots will come from over that distance whilst 2/3 shots will occur over 150 yards. I have used both approach statistics from over 200+ yards as well as approach from rough 150+yards in our PGA Championship picks this week.

Finally, we simply expect this to provide a stern test of every golfers all round game. Accordingly, we expect a winning total in single figures from -5 to -9 is on the cards. Certainly, the list of likely potential winners is small. As such, we have provided reduced staking on many outright win bets to instead focus on place opportunities.

Weather for our PGA Championship Picks

Generally, based on current forecasts there appears to be little to no weather edge leading into the second major of the year.

Firstly, Thursday AM looks to be brutally cold, with highs between 35-50F. Winds, however, will be lower than later that afternoon. Certainly, this looks to mitigate some of the impact from lost driving distance in the colder temperatures.

Subsequently, Friday looks to be the windier of the two opening days. Winds are expected between 9-12mph prevailing with gusts reaching 25-30mph. Basically, this looks to be consistent majority of the day. However, it may develop that Friday AM actually provides the windier conditions of the day.

Finally, if an edge were to develop I suspect that this would move in the direction of being Thursday AM/Friday PM groups. Particularly, for the purposes of DFS I would suggest building lineups with 20% being Thursday AM/Friday PM, 15% Thursday PM/Friday AM, and the remaining 65% mixed.

Latest weather forecasts can be found here

PGA Championship Picks

Suggested Staking

Cameron Young – Your PGA Championship Picks Favourite
2.5pts WIN +3300 (MGM)
2.5pts Top 10 +320 (Fanduel)
or 2.5pts E/W +2800 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Tony Finau: Pre-Tournament Future
2.5pts E/W +3300 (Unibet with 5 places 1/4 odds, Draftkings, Fanduel, & MGM)

Rickie Fowler
2pts WIN +5500 (Various)
2pts Top 10 +450 (Various)
or 2pts E/W +7500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)

Wyndham Clark: Pre-Tournament Future – Your PGA Championship Picks Best Value
2pts E/W +8000 (Bet365 with 5 places 1/4 odds, Draftkings & Fanduel)

Taylor Moore
0.5pts WIN +16000 (Fanduel)
0.5pts Top 10 +1000 (Draftkings)
or 0.5pts E/W +15000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3pts Top 20 +450 (Bet365) or +400 (Draftkings)

Stephan Jaeger
0.5pts WIN +25000 (Draftkings)
0.5pts Top 10 +1400 (Draftkings)
or 0.5pts E/W +17500 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
3pts Top 20 +475 (Bet365) or +550 (Draftkings)

Harris English
0.5pts WIN +18000 (Draftkings)
0.5pts Top 10 +1600 (Fanduel)
or 0.5pts E/W +20000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +500 (Bet365/TAB) or +490 (Fanduel)
And
2pts Top 40 +275 (Bet365) or +250 (Fanduel)

Alex Smalley
0.25pts WIN +55000 (Fanduel)
0.25pts Top 10 +2300 (Fanduel)
or 0.25pts E/W +50000 (Bet365 with 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1pt Top 20 +1000 (Bet365) or +850 Draftkings
And
2.5pts Top 40 +333 (Bet365/TAB) or +320 (Fanduel)

Golfer Profiles for our PGA Championship Picks

Cameron Young – Your PGA Championship Picks Favourite

I’m willing to take a stab that we were a little too early on Cameron Young at the Wells Fargo Championship and mark him as our PGA Championship picks favourite this week.

Certainly, Cam Young ticks many of the key statistics we are looking for this week. For carry distance, Young boasts an impressive 3rd on the PGA Tour averaging 305 yards. He is a gainer on approach in all buckets above 100 yards. This includes in the 150+ yards from rough category, where his clubhead speed will prove an asset if straying from the short-grass this week. He displayed an affinity for bentgrass at The Masters this year, gaining +1.23 strokes per round putting around Augusta National.

Cameron Young perhaps should have won the PGA Championship last year. He was the best positioned of candidates on the final 9 Sunday, although eventually succumbing to finish 3rd. He will be better for that experience. Additionally, Southern Hills should provide a reasonable correlation to what we see this week at Oak Hill.

2nd at the 150th Open Championship hosted at St Andrews and 7th this year at The Masters, Young is building a handy resume of major championship results. Don’t be surprised to find him adding to those claims in the near future.

Finally, this is somewhat of a home tournament for Cam Young. He grew up in upstate New York, as he mentioned in this excellent Sports Illustrated interview. Specifically, he mentioned his comfort on these grass types and how it compares to golf courses where he learned to play the game. It further aids his claims to not only take out a major, but his first PGA Tour title at the same time.

Tony Finau

Narrowly following up in our PGA Championship picks is Tony Finau, who we were able to snag at a juicy 33/1 where he can only be found at 23/1 at time of writing. For what it is worth, the 23/1 on offer would be at the bottom end of my positive EV and I would not look to take him any shorter than his current pricing.

Finau has been on a prolific winning streak notching 4 victories in his last 20 starts. I’ll acknowledge the calibre of those victories may be questioned. However, at the Mexico Open he beat Jon Rahm on a course where 63.1% of approach shots were from over 175 yards. At the Houston Open, he defeated Scheffler and Day. At the Rocket Mortgage, he beat Cantlay and Cam Young. Finally, the 3M Open he beat Sungjae Im. He has not finished worse than 31st since November 2022. Certainly, the depth of field at many of these events has been less than what we’ve become accustomed to at the new designated events. Conversely, he has also found a way to win more often, against some decent enough opponents.

Tony Finau in 2023 ranks 4th on approach over 200+ yards of those with 50+ shots recorded. He also ranks 9th for approach shots over 150 yards from the rough with 80+ attempts. Finau ranks 7th in this field for SG: APP and 6th for SG: T2G. His driving is both long and straight, which will be a key asset at this testing course.

Boasting an 8th at Winged Foot, multiple Masters Top 10s, and a 12th at Bethpage Black are all promising signs this could fit. It feels an inevitably that Finau will secure at least one major during his career. It may be this week.

Rickie Fowler

I’m typically not overly enamoured by Rickie Fowler. Even in his prime, he often finished towards the top of leaderboards without competing. It felt much like a Xander or Cantlay may do now; oodles of talent but somewhat lacking in the Wins column to show for it.

However, count me impressed by Fowler’s resurgence of late. Since January, he has placed in the top 20 for 8 of his last 9 starts. This has also included 5 designated events. Data Golf rank him as 20th, whilst his OWGR still sits at 49th. That is always an opportunity where we can see some swift correction, as we did with Wyndham Clark when he won for us at big odds.

Sitting 10th for SG: APP in this field over the last 6 months is no small feat. Although on paper he may not be the longest for pure driving distance, his carry distance is an impressive 26th this season on the PGA Tour at 293.50 yards. That is plenty enough distance to be workable this week. Combine that with the fact Fowler is a big gainer in SG: Putt on bentgrass greens and is 12th for SG: Total it provides a promising complete profile for a golfer. He is simply far too long at 75/1.

5 finishes of 12th or better at the Masters, 23rd last year at Southern Hills when in far worse form, and a 36th and 7th at Bethpage Black tick the complimentary courses boxes. Perhaps we see a return to the winner circle for Fowler, just as we did for Jason Day last week.

Wyndham Clark – Your PGA Championship Picks Best Value

Again, I feel fortunate we were able to pick up Wyndham Clark at big odds of 80/1 for this event when he can only be found at 66/1 at many books now. I still like him at that price here, especially where that includes 8 or more places. I’d not go as short as 60s.

It has been a stellar year for Wyndham Clark. Previously known simply as a bomber who could putt well, that all changed at the beginning of 2023. From January, Clark began finding his irons in a big way. The scale of improvement has been astounding. If looking at the last 2 years, Clark ranks a lowly 108th in this field for SG: APP. Over the last 6 months, he ranks 11th in this field. In 2022, the PGA Tour had Clark ranked as the 173rd golfer on SG: APP. This year, he ranks 20th.

The victory at Quail Hollow was dominant, winning by 4 strokes to Schauffele and 7 strokes ahead of everybody else in a designated event. That course should prove at least somewhat correlated to here, where strong driving and long irons are key. According to Data Golf, he is the 11th best player in the world where as his OWGR at 32nd. There may still be further correction coming.

The driving distance for Clark remains, where he ranks 6th this year in Carry Distance on the PGA Tour. And, finally, bentgrass may well be his best putting surface. His best putting performances in the past year came at the Fortinet Championship, Rocket Mortgage, and the RBC Canadian Open. All were on bentgrass.

Outsiders

As stated, given the stern test on offer I do believe the top of the board is likely where the winner of this event will come from. As such, you’ll notice a reduced stake for the win options and increased weighting on the Top Finishes markets for the below selections.

Taylor Moore

Another who I feel the market continues to disrespect is Taylor Moore. Moore secured his breakthrough win at the Valspar Championship. Copperhead Course has always provided a stern enough test. It took -10 for Moore to win this year and there have been multiple iterations where single digits has been sufficient. It also has a huge emphasis on long iron play, with 53% of approach shots this year over 175 yards.

Those long irons are really what draw me to Moore. This year, Moore ranks 2nd behind only Woodland for approach of those with 50+ recorded shots over 200+ yards. That is ahead of Rahm in 3rd, Finau in 4th, and Scheffler in 5th. Some truly elite company to be associated with. He is also 25th over the past 6 months for SG: OTT, gaining for both driving distance and accuracy.

Moore impressed in his major debut at the Masters, managing to make the cut and finishing 39th. It was a tournament where he played much better than the finishing position tells, with a final round +6 sending him flying down the leaderboard. This is easily excused in his first major appearance, especially in a heavily disrupted tournament where the 3rd round resumed on Sunday with the leaders only on the 7th hole. He remains a big gainer for putting in all his appearances featuring bentgrass greens.

11th at the RBC Heritage and 27th at the Wells Fargo came in designated events and marks a run of 11/12 events finishing 39th or better, highlighting this is no “flash in the pan”. I have lofty expectations for Taylor Moore’s career, as I do going into this week.

Stephan Jaeger

Jaeger was always a promising type. A stellar amateur career promised much when entering the realms of professional golf. He proceeded to yo-yo between the Korn Ferry Tour and PGA Tour, where he has now seemingly begun to find his feet.

I’ll start by saying that bentgrass is by far Jaeger’s preferred putting surface. We saw this just last week when charging through the field to finish 11th at TPC Craig Ranch. But, additionally, at Quail Hollow, the Rocket Mortgage, and Wilmington. Jaeger played in the 2020 US Open at Winged Foot, where he far exceeded expectation when finishing 34th whilst still on the Korn Ferry Tour.

Another whose golf ranking is seemingly out of kilter, Data Golf rank him at 48th versus his OWGR standing of 117th. He has finished 44th or better in 7/8 starts since the Genesis Invitational. 5 of those have been finishes of 27th or better. His long irons are excellent. Particularly, approach shots when playing from the rough from 150+ yards. He sits in the top 80% for SG per shot, proximity, GIR, and Poor Shot Avoidance for this category.

Most notably, Jaeger has quietly gone about adding a lot of driving distance in 2023. He ranks 36th in Carry Distance this season where he sat 94th last year. He is 23rd for SG: T2G in this field over the past 6 months, with his finishes held back somewhat by his putting. However, as mentioned, he is a far better putter on bentgrass and I think we could be in for an eye-catching performance from Jaeger here.

Harris English

Once regarded as one of the rising stars of the game, 2021 saw Harris English playing in the Ryder Cup and winning the Sentry Tournament of Champions and Travelers Championship. His movement through the world of golf was halted following surgery to a hip injury in the 2021 season. We are beginning to see murmurs that English may soon be back towards his very best.

English impressed last outing when finishing 3rd at the designated event Wells Fargo Championship. He did so when sitting 2nd in the field behind only winner Wyndham Clark for SG: APP. As is often the case, gains in approach tend to be “stickier” whilst we expect spikes in putting performance to regress to a player’s mean much more quickly. 55.2% of approach shots were over 175 yards at Quail Hollow and 75.5% of approach shots were over 150 yards.

He is one of the biggest movers in SG: Putt when shifting to bentgrass greens. He can also boast a 4th place at the US Open at Winged Foot, which we expect to be well correlated to Oak Hill.

Alex Smalley

Finally, I round out my PGA Championship picks with a small and speculative play on Alex Smalley at huge odds of 500/1. Whereas this is somewhat of a home tournament for Cameron Young, this really is one for Alex Smalley who was born in Rochester, NY.

26 year old Alex Smalley jumped almost directly into the PGA Tour from a stellar amateur campaign. A rather weird transition due to COVID, he finished 48th, 4th, and 15th in the Korn Ferry Tour Finals to earn a PGA Tour card near immediately. It was an eye-catching rookie season, where he made it all the way to the second stage of the FedEx Cup playoffs at the BMW Championship in Wilmington.

Smalley impressed when finishing 18th on last sighting at the elevated Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow. He was subsequently backed by me last week, before promptly withdrawing when it became clear he would make the PGA Championship field.

At his best, Smalley is both long and straight off the tee. His approach game has also been rounding into decent form, beyond the promising big uptick last appearance. Particularly, his approach numbers from the rough and 150+ yards are impressive. Smalley has now gained over or been at the field average for approach in his last 5 events.

Again, a debut professional major appearance is a lot to ask of any player. However, he is undeniably a rising talent who represents a great value in both Top 20 and Top 40 markets.

Summary

Thank you reading our 2023 PGA Championship picks. For an article with some insights on my golf analysis process, check this link here!

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