Tag:

Pete Alonso

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 7/31 (FanDuel Main Slate)

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s nine-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

No major weather issues to keep rack of other than a few daytime/evening storms in St. Louis (which could delay the start of MIN-STL but most likely won’t get serious enough for PPD) and possible pop-ups around Atlanta.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Yu Darvish ($9,600)

Darvish has struggled in July but he comes at a discount against a Colorado lineup that should have trouble hitting his pitch arsenal — especially the cutter. Adam Strangis points out in his must-read 7/31 Starting Rotation article that the Rockies are among the worst in the league (and registering a putrid -4.7 Pitch Value vs. wCT over the past 30 days). While the team’s swinging strike rate and K% has decreased over the past month or so, there’s stil a lot of K potential here for Darvish — who projects for the highest FD total tonight among the available SPs. I’m looking at a floor of around 30-35 FD points with upside around 45-50 if he can get the W and QS.

Best GPP Value: Joe Ross ($7,400)

The price on Ross, who hadn’t officially been named the SP for tonight’s game against the firesale-depleted Cubs as of 11 a.m. EST, is just way to low for his 45-50 point upside. The Cubs’ team K rate is probably on the rise, and that almost guarantees a 25-30 point floor for the Nats righty. I think both pitchers in this game can be moderately successful, but with the early absence of Ross in the available SPs (with the green box checked for “show only probably pitchers”) I could see MLB DFS ownership coming in way below what it should for good old JR. Hendricks is $200 more and doesn’t have the same upside, but I’ll use him in maybe 1/10 GPP lineups just to get some variance.

Contrarian GPP Play: Aaron Nola ($11,000)

While Yu Darvish is discounted on FanDuel, Nola is mispriced at just $9,700 on DK — so we could see the Phillies fireballer come in way at lower ownership than normal as the top-priced arm on FD. The strikeout potential is through the roof for Nola facing a Pirates team that struggles against his signature four-seamer, where he gets most of his Ks. On the surface, Nola’s price seems a bit high when compared to the overall numbers of both Brandon Woodruff ($200 cheaper on FD) and Darvish, so he makes for a fine MLB DFS GPP play that probably won’t eclipse 25 or 30% ownership. With some of the massive value that’s out there in our forthcoming stacks, it shouldn’t be a problem affording him.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Chicago White Sox

Both sides of this game could post monster offensive numbers, and while I like the Indians as a GPP stack, the White Sox offer the most safety in cash games and single-entry builds. Cleveland SP Triston McKenzie has some electric stuff, but he walks 6.37 batters per 9 IP and is carrying a 5.61/5.15 ERA/FIP heading into tonight’s matchup. The three most important MLB DFS hitters to roster are Tim Anderson ($3,600), Jose Abreu ($3,400) and Yoan Moncada ($2,900), who came alive last night (3-for-5 with a HR and two runs scored). Abreu got plunked in the helmet last night and that caused a near fracas, so he might be looking for revenge today with the boomstick. Keep an eye on the status of Eloy Jimenez ($3,300), who’s DTD to with a groin issue, and also consider Andrew Vaughn ($2,900).

Value Stack: New York Mets

The Mets are in a great spot tonight against southpaw Wade Miley, who they faced on July 20. I always like a second crack at the same starting pitcher within a two-week time frame, and Miley wasn’t exactly boasting his best stuff in his last start on July 26 (my birthday!). They’ve added Javier Baez ($3,400) to their lineup, and he’s exactly what they need (.410 wOBA vs. LHP) to supplement the potent bats of Pete Alonso ($3,800 — and an even better wOBA vs. LHP than Baez) and the value laden J.D. Davis ($2,800) and James McCann ($2,200). Keep an eye on the status of the still-cheap Brandon Nimmo ($2700 — DTD with a hamstring “pinch”) and whatever the new lineup looks like with Baez in the mix, and consider lefty Jeff McNeil ($2,700) if he’s starting, since he’s sporting a .330 wOBA vs. LHP.

Contrarian Stack: Seattle Mariners

The Mariners aren’t a bunch that I get excited about stacking too often, but given the fact that they always fly under the radar and the smash spot some of these right-handed hitters are in for this matchup, I’m getting some exposure in GPPs. They immediately stood out when I looked at team totals and matchups for tonight and I as subsequently giddy to find out they were highlighted as the primary stack in Adam’s article (this could mean BIG GREEN SCREENS for WinDaily subscribers tonight)! I’m anchoring my stacks to Mitch Haniger ($3,400) and his .380 wOBA vs. LHP over his last 108 AB. Haniger has 10 HRs in those 108 AB and will be on all my SEA stacks. After that I’ll be mixing in three-man combinations among Ty France ($2,800), Luis Torrens ($2,600), Dylan Moore ($2,600), the recently acquired Abraham Toro ($2,500) and lefties Kyle Seager ($3,100) and leadoff hitter J.P Crawford ($2,500) — who both have wOBAs north of .300 against LHP.

One or more of that group might sit out tonight, so keep an eye on the starters as lineups are released. Good luck tonight, and make sure you utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

3 years ago 0 comment

Sports Betting

Win Daily Sports: Monkey Knife Fight MLB Plays 07/23

Joel Bartilotta 3 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Win Daily Sports is proudly partnered with Monkey Knife Fight. MKF is offering you a FREE Win Daily Gold membership for three months ($90 value) simply for making your first deposit on Monkey Knife Fight. And if free gold isn’t attractive enough, they’re also offering a 100% match bonus up to $100 when you use promo code WINDAILY.

Claim Offer

Today I’ll be highlighting one of my favorite contests on MKF, the Home Run Blast. Every Friday night MKF runs a special contest where if you play in a $5+ Home Run Blast contest and all 3 of your batters hit a home run you get share of the jackpot. Tonight’s jackpot is $5,000.

With that said, lets dig in and see where we can find some long balls!

Home Run Blast

Pete Alonso vs. Steven Matz

Steven Matz makes his return to Citi Field tonight after being traded over the winter. My guess is it’s a short outing for Mr. Matz as the match-up tonight is not an easy one. Matz is someone that has been very home run prone this season. He only has a handful of starts where he hasn’t given one up.

I’m going to be attacking Matz tonight in both my DFS lineups and my Home Run Blast contests with right handed bats. He gives up way more fly balls to righties and significantly more hard contact.

The guy I’m going to do it with is the Polar Bear himself, Pete Alonso. If we look at pitch mix Matz is going to throw his sinker more than 45% of the time.

This is a pitch that Alonso has historically excelled against. In his brief career he has a .833 ISO with an average distance of 353 feet. Bombs away for Alonso tonight. Confidence Level – High

Eric Haase vs. Kris Bubic

Bubic is slowly becoming one of my favorite pitchers to pick on. Bubic has been giving up a ton of power this year with high ISO’s to both sides of the plate. I’m going to side with a power righty from the Tigers though and that guy is Eric Haase.

For the first time in his brief career Haase has become a full time player. On the year he’s already crushed 15 homers. I’m picking him tonight due to his numbers against lefties this year. He has an insane .500 ISO in 60 plate appearances with a .498 wOBA.

Diving into pitch data he’s going to see a steady stream of low 90’s fastballs tonight. It’s a pitch he tees off when it comes from lefties. He has a .500 ISO against it with an average distance of 317 feet. Confidence Level – Highish

Justin Upton vs. J.A. Happ

Happ is one of my favorite targets when it comes to opposing hitters. When I target him, I almost always do with batters from the right hand side. This year he’s given up a 44% fly ball rate and a 42% hard hit rate against righties. This has added to him giving up a .274 ISO and a .379 wOBA to guys from the right side of the plate.

I’m targeting him tonight with a guy who has a long history against south paws. Over the last several seasons Upton has a .269 ISO against lefties. He’s someone that hits for a ton of power against them. He should have no problem with the low 90’s fastball coming from Happ. Confidence Level – Medium/High

Home Run Blast Wrap Up

The three guys I’m picking on tonight are some of favorite targets when playing fantasy and are guys that give up homers often. While I’m picking Alonso against Matz, I also think that JD Davis and James McCann are also primed for big nights.

Good luck and hope to share the jackpot with you!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

3 years ago 0 comment

Sports Betting

Win Daily Sports: Monkey Knife Fight MLB Plays 07/19

Joel Bartilotta 3 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Claim Offer

Today I’ll be highlighting one of my favorite contests on MKF, the Home Run Blast. For those not familiar with this contest, you get to pick 3 players that you’ll think will hit a homer. Within the game there are different tiers you can play. .5 you will only need 1 homer to cash and that pays double. 1.5 you will need 2 homers and that pays triple. 2.5 you will need 3 homers and that pays 4x your entry fee. With that said, lets dig in and see where we can find some long balls!

Home Run Blast

Jesse Winker vs. Jerad Eickhoff

In his last 8 innings of work Mr. Eickhoff has given up 6 home runs. That’s almost a homer an inning. He’s a gas can and we should attack him at all costs. The guy that takes him yard tonight is Jesse Winker (and probably others). If we look at the pitch mix that Winker should see tonight we see that he’s set up for success.

Eickhoff will throw his fastball and slider more than 67% of the time to Winker tonight. Against sliders Winker has a .203 ISO and a 47% hard hit rate. Against a very low 90’s fastball his ISO climbs to .238. With the game in Great American Ballpark tonight I really like Winker’s chances of taking Eickhoff deep. Confidence Level – High

Pete Alonso vs. Vlad Gutierrez

The Polar Bear should homer tonight. He’s facing a pitcher that has had some really mixed results at the Major League level. On the year his xFIP is still at a pretty high 5.67. He’s been susceptible to the long ball this year as he’s given up the 6 in his last 27 innings of work.

Gutierrez’s main pitch to righties this season is his 93 MP fastball. Alonso crushes this pitch. Over the last 3 years he has a .564 ISO against this pitch. You read that right. I expect Alonso to take Gutierrez very deep tonight. Confidence Level – High

Adam Duvall vs. Jon Lester

Gone are the years where Lester was a good pitcher. Now, he’s a serviceable pitcher for those playing DFS as he is one of the most attackable pitchers in the game. He just doesn’t have much left in the tank. His last few games have been downright bad.

He’s given up 5 homers in just 19 innings of work to go with a 6.53 xFIP. He’s just giving up way too much contact and way too much of it has been hard contact. Duvall has been hammering left handed pitching this year. His ISO is sitting at .247. If he’s not striking out against lefties, he crushing them. Look for Duvall to be one of the Marlins that takes Lester deep. Confidence Level – High

Home Run Blast Wrap Up

The ball should be flying in Cincinnati tonight. While Alonso and Winker are my top picks to homer from that game, guys like Naquin on the Reds and Conforto on the Mets are also primed to homer tonight. For the Fish, I also like Aguilar to take Lester deep.

3 years ago 0 comment

MLB Daily Fantasy Sports

7/27 MLB DFS: The Fearless Five (DK GPP)

TimmySigs 4 years ago

written by TimmySigs

Baseball is back and I’ve got five hitters for you to consider for the 7/27 MLB DFS Monday night slate in large-field DK GPPs, where it pays to be fearless!

7/27 MLB DFS – C Wilson Ramos (DK $3,800) NYM @ BOS

There’s certainly some firepower among the top few catchers in Monday’s slate, but spending down to Ramos makes sense for large-field GPPs, where the sub-$4K price tag and his upside in this excellent matchup (vs. Red Sox opener Josh Osich and primary long reliever Zach Godley) combine to give us great value. My favorite spend-up option on this slate was J.T. Realmuto (DK $4,600) facing his old battery mate J.A. Happ, but now I’m considering Cubs C Willson Contreras (DK $4,800) against the Reds.

7/27 MLB DFS – 1B C.J. Cron (DK $3,300) DET vs. KC

Cron has always been a risk-reward play in DFS, but he’s coming off a homer night and the price has not caught up to his enormous power upside, especially facing LHP Mike Montgomery. He’s dirt cheap and if you’re not spending big and rolling out the slow-starting Pete Alonso (DK $5,600 and a great GPP play at such a high price), it makes sense to find some value at 1B.

7/27 MLB DFS – 2B Nico Hoerner (DK $3,400) CHC @ CIN

I had planned on using Gleyber Torres here but with the Yankees-Phillies game postponed, I’ll tout my discount play. I’m very intrigued by what Nico Hoerner offers at such a huge discount, though in Astros stacks I’ll likely spend up for Jose Altuve (DK $5,000). The Cubs rookie (82 plate appearances in 2019) is off to a solid start and will look to keep it rolling against Reds LHP Wade Miley.

7/27 MLB DFS – SS Alex Bregman (DK $5,100) HOU vs. SEA

Bregman has hit safely in all three games thus far, and the multi-hit performances are right around the corner. There’s not much to be scared of by the likes of Seattle RHP Kendall Graveman, who now sports an upper 90s four-seam fastball to go along with his trademark sinker – pitches that Bregman feasts on. NYM S Amed Rosario (DK $5,000) is another GPP options best deployed in Mets stacks.

7/26 MLB DFS – OF Lorenzo Cain (DK $3,700) MIL at PIT

Christian Yelich (DK $5,900) really let us down yesterday, so we’re going to plug in his more contact-oriented teammate against Steven Breault. I’ll have some Milwaukee stacks where I play both, but Cain makes sense as a cheap, upside-laden one-off against a pitcher that doesn’t yield too many homers.

NOTE: With the postponement of the Orioles-Marlins and Yanks-Phils along with several rain-threatened games, finding suitable SPs is going to be a challenge. For now, I’m mostly rolling with Tyler Glasnow in a risky spot against the juggernaut Braves and GPP contrarian play Michael Wacha (NYM) against the much-less-potent Red Sox. This leaves plenty of room for Astros stacks and a smattering of value plays.

Good luck!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @LouisLipps and be sure to sign up for a ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

Photo of Alex Bregman courtesy of Keith Allison.

4 years ago 0 comment

MLB

New York Mets Fantasy Season Outlook

Brian Tulloch 4 years ago

written by Brian Tulloch

New York Mets Fantasy Season Outlook

As a diehard Mets fan, bleeding Orange and Blue, there is nothing I look forward to more than seeing the Amazin’s back on the field and with an abbreviated season heading our way (fingers crossed), it means we get the return of my other love – fantasy baseball! So here is a New York Mets Fantasy Season Outlook!

For fantasy baseball players, when they think of the Mets, they are going to immediately turn to Jacob deGrom and Pete Alonso and rightfully so as consensus top 20 players even in an abbreviated season. There is nothing to say about deGrom or Alonso that hasn’t been said and drafting them inside the top 20, you will likely get a strong return on their value but there is one player right now that I think is not being hyped up nearly enough and could return elite fantasy baseball value in 2020 – Michael Conforto.Right now, Conforto is being drafted outside the top 25 OF’s and barely within the top 100 overall which seems like a mistake for a 27-year-old player hitting his prime after a season in which he knocked 33 HR’s and 92 RBI’s.The circumstances surrounding Conforto heading into this season could not be better, as the Mets will get one of the biggest boosts in baseball with the addition of a DH, swapping out a pitcher for the likes of Yoenis Cespedes. The Mets lineup heading into 2020 is strong across every spot and that day in and day out grind on pitchers without the “benefit” of facing an opposing teams SP in the batter’s box, I believe will make for inflated offensive numbers in the heat of the summer.

Last year, the most common Mets line-up included Todd Frazier and the pitcher’s spot in the line-up and now in 2020 you swap those out for a duo of Cespedes and JD Davis and well, you can start to see how there is simply no break for opposing arms facing this lineup.

If you look at Conforto’s splits, it won’t shock you to see that his K rate drops and his slugging % and ISO metrics jump materially when he is up in the count, specifically early in the count as we saw him generate well over a third of his HR/RBI output when he got up in the count 1-0. This is where the lengthened line-up and the addition of guys like Yo and JD behind him will pay massive dividends as he gets to take advantage of hitter’s counts with more threats around him and more high leverage, run-producing situations.

I also think the fact that Conforto will play 40 of the 60 games against the NL East gives him a familiarity with the parks and pitchers he will face for the large majority of the season, helping bring some continuity to 2020 in which any sort of normalcy will be a big boost to players in this new world.
One interesting note, the last two seasons Conforto has been a huge second-half player with a massive jump in 2018 as his ISO jumped well over .100 points to .266 and we saw a similar improvement in the second half of 2019. You could argue that resurgence comes with the weather warming up which in theory would translate to this year with all games coming in the heat of the summer or you can take the approach that he takes a while to get going – which in a shortened season could be an issue as every game on the schedule has a higher degree of importance.

There is one constant though in the numbers for Conforto – a consistent upward trend and sometimes as Mets fans, we may forget he is still just 27 years old. Heading into this season with McNeil/Nimmo ahead of him and Alonso/Yo/Cano/JD/Ramos right behind him – there is going to be some serious per game run production hitting in the middle of a lineup that showed it was a top 10 offense across every metric in the second half of last year, ranking top 10 in runs, RBI, team ISO and team wOBA. With the addition of a DH, and one as talented as Yoenis Cespedes, I want as many underrated pieces of this Mets offense as I can get!

And hey – LFGM!

Thanks for enjoying this New York Mets Fantasy Season Outlook! Make sure to follow us on twitter at @WinDailySports and me at @2LockSports! There is more FREE content over at WinDailySports.com and you can chat with our Fantasy Pros one on one in our Expert Discord Chat!

4 years ago 0 comment

MLB Daily Fantasy Sports

9/26 DFS Hitting Picks and Stacks: Indians Can’t Cease Fire

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

The main slate for 9/26 DFS is just a simple, five-game assembly of MLB DFS matchups featuring some playoff implications and some sneaky stacks! Let’s find the best one-off plays and a couple quality stacks to get you on the road to cash!

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9/26 DFS Hitting Stacks ofthe Day

Cleveland Indians at DylanCease

With Jose Ramirez back, the Indians have another titanic bat in their lineup as they try to sneak into the playoffs via the Wild Card. Eliminated from securing their fourth straight AL Central title with Wednesday’s loss (coupled with a victory by the Minnesota Twins), the Indians have a Thursday night matchup that bodes well for the bats facing a hittable Dylan Cease (5.79 ERA). Expect Francisco Lindor to erase that poor showing last night and get some exposure to the 2-5 bats, along with Franmil Reyes and a dirt-cheap Mike Freeman ($3,200 DK, $2,500 FD) at the bottom of the order.

Oakland Athletics atSeattle Mariners

We’ve come to expect a lot from the A’s as September winds down, and this is a prime opportunity for the bats to come alive and pile on some runs on this 9/26 DFS slate. Mark Canha left the game early last night and Khris Davis is battling a stomach bug, but there are plenty of bats to go to in their stead, and while Felix Hernandez is a historically solid pitcher, he’s nearing the end of his career (6.51 ERA this season) and just isn’t the same old King Felix. The A’s also hit well on the road, with a .329 wOBA as a team. I like Matt Olson, Matt Chapman and Marcus Semien.

Houston Astros at JaimeBarria

The Astros plan on sitting Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa and George Springer, but that just means you can grab some value at the top of their lineup with Kyle Tucker and mix in some “next man up” types who’ve performed well in limited duty this season. They’re not my favorite stack for 9/26 DFS, but they’re certainly viable and a little cheaper to fit in without all the regulars.

9/26 DFS Hitting Stacks toConsider

Chicago Cubs at Joe Musgrove – The Cubs face ahittable pitcher who can hand out free passes and get lit up as easily as hecan rack up the Ks.

New York Mets vs. Jordan Yamamoto – Yamamoto isn’t a bad young pitcher, but he struggles with RHBs and the Mets have a bunch of really good ones.

9/26 DFS HittingCatcher

Wilson Ramos, NYM vs. MIA

DK ($3,600) FD ($2600)

Unfortunately, the pickings are slim at catcher today, so I’ll be looking to Wilson Ramos and his power upside. The Mets regular catcher is slashing .286/.350/.415 this season and Yamamoto has trouble with right-handed bats (.322wOBA vs. RHBs, .250 wOBA vs. LHBs). Just make sure he’s in the lineup before you lock him in.

9/26 DFS Hitting FirstBaseman

Matt Olson, OAK at SEA

DK (4,600) FD ($3,700)

My affinity for Matt Olson is well-known among my peers, and he’s deliveredfor me time and again in GPPs. This matchup is an interesting one, because Olsonhas a .293 ISO and 150 wRC+ against righties. Olson, who’s been hitting forpower this month with a .345 ISO, will likely face a couple of RHPs and has agood chance at going deep in this game.

9/26 DFS Hitting SecondBaseman

Aledmys Diaz, HOU at LAA

DK($4,100) FD ($2,900)

With some Astros sitting, Diaz probably gets another start tonight and is carrying a decent slash line (.271/.349/.457) into the 9/26 contest. He has a 122 wRC+ against RHPs this season, is fairly priced on DK and is unbelievably cheap on FD. It looks like I may give him a shot in about half my lineups this evening.

9/26 DFS Hitting ThirdBaseman

Matt Chapman, OAK at SEA

(DK $4,100) FD ($3,600)

Mr. Chapman homered last night, is very affordable on both sites, and is slightly better against RHPs (124 wRC+ vs. RHPs, 122 wRC+ vs. LHPs). While he had a relatively quiet September, I like the matchup for Chapman against King Felix here here — and there are not many 3B who stick out in this slate other than him, Alex Bregman (who’s available at SS on DK), and Yoan Moncada.

9/26 DFSHitting Shortstop

Alex Bregman, HOU at LAA

DK ($2,600) FD ($2,000)

Some of the veteran Astros players will get spelled tonight, but Bregman is slated to stay in the lineup and is red hot at the plate (3-4, two 2B, RBI, R last night). He sports a robust 168 wRC+ and is slashing .298/.421/.595 triple-slash line with 119 runs scored, 40 homers, 110 RBI and five steals this season. The hard-hitting Bregman is a fine place to anchor your SS slot.

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9/26 DFS HittingOutfielders

Kyle Tucker, HOU at LAA

DK($4,800) FD ($2,900)

Tucker draws the leadoff spot for 9/26 DFS a night after launching a solo homer against the Mariners. With Jose Altuve getting the day off, he takes over a prime spot in the Astros lineup and has done ell with his chances so far: The 22-year-old rookie outfielder is hitting .304/.339/.571 with 11 runs scored, three HRs, 10 RBI and five SB in 59 plate appearances this season. The price on DK is fair, but on FD he’s just way too cheap.

Brandon Nimmo, NYM vs. MIA

DK ($3,900) FD ($2,900)

I love Nimmo in the leadoff spot today for the Mets, who don’t havea lot to play for but still have an exciting group of young hitters. Nimmo hasa 133 wRC+ against RHPs in his career and will have plenty of run scoringopportunities here. He also has a 16.4 BB% facing RHPs in his career and a 19.7BB% this season against righties – a nice patience complement to his burgeoningpower.

Kyle Schwarber, CHC at PIT

DK ($3,800) FD ($2,700)

While he’s not much of a contact/average hitter, Schwarber has been heating up at the plate (2-4 last night with a pair of singles on Wednesday) just in time for his team to be eliminated from the playoffs. Schwarber is hitting .248/.337/.527 with 37 homers, 91 RBI and 80 runs scored in 152 games overall in 2019, and he’s got a great matchup vs. RHP Joe Musgrove.

9/26 DFS Additional StackOptions:

C: Wilson Contreras ($4,700 DK, $3,000 FD), Sean Murphy ($4,000DK, $2,900 FD)

1B: Anthony Rizzo ($4,900 DK, $3,900 FD), Pete Alonso ($5,000 DK,$4,000 FD)

2B: Ian Happ ($4,000 DK, $2,600 FD), Yolmer Sanchez ($2,700 DK) ($2,300FD)

3B: Yoan Moncada ($4,800 DK, $3,500 FD), David Fletcher ($3,900DK, $2,800 FD)

SS: Francisco Lindor ($4,600 DK, $4,200 FD), Jack Mayfield ($2,600 DK, $2,000 FD)

OF: Yordan Alvarez ($5,400 DK, $4,400 FD), Nick Castellanos ($4,600DK, $3,800 FD), Michael Brantley ($4,000 DK, $3,500 FD), Oscar Mercado ($4,900DK, $3,400 FD), Michael Conforto ($4,600 DK, $3,500 FD), Robbie Grossman, ($3,500DK, $2,400 FD),

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

9/18 MLB DFS and Betting Winners

Vincent Pensabene 5 years ago

written by Vincent Pensabene

A flashback at some of the best performances from the Tuesday slate plus their outlooks for the remainder of the season on the 9/18 MLB DFS and Betting review and look ahead.

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9/18 MLB DFS Winner: The Los Angeles Dodgers

Here is a Tuesday snippet from Cash with the Flash by Phil Naessens, our Premium Gold Sports Betting Column. The bet said to go with the Dodgers and you would have won if you have done so. The Dodgers ended up beating the Tampa Bay Rays by a score of 7-5 behind a bullpen day.

Outlook for the rest of the season: Los Angeles is currently sitting with the best record in the National League and is neck-and-neck with both the Houston Astros and New York Yankees for the best record in the Majors. Kenta Maeda made things interesting but the Dodgers prevailed. Expect the Dodgers to continue winning and stay in the race for the best record in baseball.

9/18 MLB DFS Winner: Chris Paddack

As Jason chose him on the Premium Gold MLB Cheatsheet as a value pitcher, Chris Paddack had a good start against the Milwaukee Brewers last night on the road. Paddack ended up going five innings while allowing one run on one hit with a walk and nine strikeouts.

Outlook for the rest of the season: It has been a great rookie campaign for Chris Paddack. His ERA now sits at 3.33, which would be tied with Mike Minor for 18th-lowest in the Majors if he had the innings to qualify. Paddack has shown he has the stuff to be a top-of-the-rotation guy for San Diego as their window for success begins to open up. Expect Paddack to have another two good starts to end the year.

9/17 MLB DFS Winner: Corey Seager

Here is a screenshot from the Premium Projection Model of the guys who were around Corey Seager’s value on the Tuesday slate. Seager had a solid day at the dish against the Tampa Bay Rays, going 2-for-4 with a pair of doubles and four RBI.

Outlook for the rest of the season:Seager is having a good year after missing most of 2018 due to Tommy John. He now has career highs in doubles and RBI. Sliding down towards the bottom of the order, Seager has still been able to produce for this Dodgers lineup. Expect solid shortstop play while being able to drive runners in with some extra base hits.

9/18 MLB DFS Winner: Pete Alonso

Another player from the Cheatsheet, this time as a top first baseman, “the Polar Bear” Pete Alonso went 2-for-4 against the Colorado Rockies on Tuesday night with a home run and two RBI

Outlook for the rest of the season: Alonso looks like he has broken the 0-for-20 cold slide he was on with back-to-back games with multi-hits. Alonso also has the Major League lead with 48 home runs with the New York Mets sitting four games out of a postseason berth with 11 games left. Alonso should easily break the 50 home run mark and boost the offense to keep the Mets alive until the final days.

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB Daily Fantasy Sports

9/17 DFS Hitting Picks and Stacks: Mets Marauding Melville

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

We’ve got a loaded 14-game 7:05 EST main slate for MLB 9/17 DFS – one that we’ve got some high game totals for, including another big-time stack at Coors. The lineups get unstable toward the end of the year, but that just gives us more opportunities to embrace the variance and make it fun on this enormous slate.

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9/17 DFS Hitting Stacks of the Day

NewYork Mets at Tim Melville (NYM at COL)

The Mets are expensive but have the highest implied total on the slate. Last night they scored just four runs in Coors but on Tuesday get to face Melville, who’s been torched in his three home starts (.516 xwOBA, 9.00 ERA, 6.31 xFIP). I’ll be applying a liberal smattering of Mets hitters in most of my lineups, with most of my exposure coming with the first five hitters: Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil, Michael Conforto, Robinson Cano and Pete Alonso. Wilson Ramos is a very affordable $2,900 on FD as well, where he can be used in one of two spots.

Boston Red Sox vs. Logan Webb (BOS vs. SF)

The Sox may be missing Mookie Betts (foot) but they’re still a powerful bunch of bats in a hitter’s park. Logan Webb has been tuned up for a .400 xwOBA vs. RHP) during his short time in the Majors, and he’s not going to like the ballpark shift from Oracle. The usual suspects (Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts, J.D. Martinez and Andrew Benintendi) are all $5,000 or under on DK, and Mitch Moreland is just $4,200.

Toronto Blue Jays at Dylan Bundy/Chandler Shepherd

The Blue Jays are a sneaky stack in a slate with Coors Field on the docket, and they’ll be playing in Baltimore, where the homers fly out and the Orioles pitching staff has reached a new nadir in allowing the long ball. I’m stacking the 1-5 with occasional shares of Randal Grichuk ($4,300 DK) and Billy McKinney ($3,300 DK).

Cleveland Indians vs. John Schreiber/Spencer Turnbull (CLE vs.DET)

The Indians are underpriced for the matchup on this 9/17 DFS slate, whether it’s against Schreiber (the possible opener) or Turnbull, who’s really struggled this season (3-15 in 27 starts with a 4.77 ERA and 1.48 WHIP). I’m leaning toward mini-stacks considering there are so many other great matchups on this slate, but feel free to grab shares of the 1-5 hitters and get some exposure to the value bats (Franmil Reyes, Mike Freeman and Jordan Luplow, if he’s in the lineup).

9/17 DFS Hitting Stacks to Consider

Atlanta Braves at Vince Velazquez (It’s tough to fadeFreeman and Co. in a hitter’s park)

Miami Marlins at LHP Alex Young (all the righties –including my guy Starlin Castro)

Colorado Rockies vs. Marcus Stroman (The contrarian side ofCoors against a decent RHP)

9/17 DFS Hitting Catcher

J.T. Realmuto, PHI at ATL

DK ($4,600) FD ($3,900)

I’m a huge fan of Realmuto, who sports a .443 xwOBA and .227 ISO against LHPs over the past two seasons. It’s a one-off play that should command low ownership and provide a decent floor – as well as immense upside in GPPs.

9/17 DFS Hitting First Baseman

Rowdy Tellez, TOR at BAL

DK ($3,900) FD ($2,600)

Tellez has four homers in his last 11 games, crushes right-handedpitching (.453 xwOBA, .245 ISO since 2018), and bats fourth between Lourdes Gurrieland Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. Tellez is my double-dinger call of the day, and he’snot really thrown off by lefty relievers, either (.430 xwOBA against LHPs since2018).

9/17 DFS Hitting Second Baseman

Cavan Biggio, TOR at BAL

DK ($4,500) FD ($3,700)

Biggio is another Jays bat I want exposure to in Camden Yards, where he’s already got three homers in five career games and a 168 OPS+ that screams GPP play. As part of stack or simply a value bat at a reasonable price, Biggio makes a solid play for his speed and power.

9/17 DFS Hitting Third Baseman

Matt Chapman, OAK vs. KC

DK ($4,200) FD ($3,600)

Chapman and his surging power numbers (4 HRs in September so far) couldbe overlooked on this slate, and if you’re wary of spending more than $5K for J.D.Davis but still want to get some other Coors bats in, he could be a big help.All these games matter for the A’s, and Chapman (.423 xwOBA and .250 ISO vs.RHPs since 2018) is the heart and soul of their lineup along with Matt Olsonand Marcus Semien, the other two Oakland bats with 30+ homers this year.

9/17 DFS Hitting Shortstop

Francisco Lindor, CLE vs. DET

DK ($4,800) FD ($4,000)

Lindor is my favorite shortstop of this slate. He gets lotsof ABs and benefits from a circular Indians lineup that has some decent hittersat the bottom of the order – giving him some run-creating opportunities alongwith table-setting ability. His price is cheaper than Xander Bogaerts, Trevor Storyand Bo Bichette on DK (with just as much GPP upside) and he’s playable in allformats at home (where he owns a .386 wOBA and .403 xwOBA sine 2018) against theTigers.

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9/17 DFS Hitting Outfielders

J.D. Martinez, BOS vs. SF

DK ($4,000) FD ($3,200)

Idiscussed the Red Sox stack up top, but if there’s one bat from Boston I’d likein this matchup, it’s J.D. His .506 xwOBA vs. RHPs since 2018 (over a hugesample of 998 plate appearances) means he can hit all types of pitching (it’s apreposterous .560 vs. LHPs) and he’s still surrounded by Bogaerts andBenintendi, who both hit RHPs well. I’m banking on a three-run homer for the RedSox OF/DH in hitter-friendly Fenway against young Logan Webb (.400 xwOBA vs. RHP).

Oscar Mercado, CLE vs. DET

DK ($4,100) FD ($3,000)

Thehome numbers for Mercado are impressive (.290/.340/.477) and his bat has beenshowing some life again (10 hits in his last 26 AB). You’re getting thetalented young OF at a discount on both sites, and he’s a great piece to havein Indians mini stacks along with Lindor and Carlos Santana.

Garrett Hampson, COL vs. NYM

DK ($3,500) FD ($3,200)

Hampson is red-hot at the plate and is dirt cheap onDK. He’s played much better since getting more regular time, starting in theRockies’ last five straight and games and going 11-for-22 over that stretch(counting Monday night). He’s easy to overlook in the lineup as the No. 7 hitterand makes plenty of sense in both cash games and GPPs.

Additional options:

C:Roberto Perez ($3,600 DK, $2,900FD), Reese McGuire ($3,900 DK, $2,800 FD)

1B: Pete Alonso ($5,600 DK, $4,300 FD), Carlos Santana($4,300 DK, $3,900 FD)

2B: Robinson Cano ($4,700 DK, $3,600 FD), Jonathan Villar($4,700 DK, $3,800 FD)

3B: Vladimir Guerrero Jr, ($3,900 DK, $2,900 FD), EugenioSuarez ($4,500 DK, $3,900 FD)

SS: Bo Bichette ($5,400 DK, $3,900 FD), Xander Bogaerts ($5,000DK, 3,800 FD)

OF: Austin Meadows ($5,600 DK, $4,400 FD), Yordan Alvarez ($5,200DK, $4,100 FD), Brandon Nimmo ($4,500 DK, $3,900 FD), Khris Davis ($3,800 DK,$3,200 FD), Michael Brantley ($4,000 DK, $3,800 FD), Matt Joyce ($4,100 DK, $2,400FD)

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

8/29 DFS Hitting and Stacks

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

I was excited to get you all some dingers from three out of my featured eight hitters for the 15-game Tuesday slate, but we’re aiming even higher for my second piece here at Win Daily Sports. Were building GPP stacks for the Thursday 8/29 DFS main slate, and we’ve only got six games on tap. While there’s an obvious game we want to use some hitters from, I’ll try to identify a few value plays so we can throw a potent stack or two in our GPP builds so your bankroll gets a boost.

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8/29DFS Hitting Catcher

JorgeAlfaro, MIA vs. CIN

DK($3,800), FD ($2,800)

We can only hope that Alfaro’s day off on Wednesday hasn’t cooled off one of the hottest hitters in baseball over the past week. Not only is he in the midst of a five-game hitting streak, slashing .524/.424/1.000 with three homers and four RBI during that stretch, but he’s got an excellent matchup in his home park, where he sports a 117 RC+ and .339 wOBA. You can use whomever is catching for the Pirates (Elias Diaz $3,400 DK or Jacob Stallings $3,300 DK) for a few bucks cheaper, but Alfaro should still be low-owned and has solid upside in this 8/29 DFS spot.

8/29DFS Hitting First Baseman

JoshBell, PIT at COL

DK($5,400), FD ($4,300)

Bell’s price is steep, and I wouldn’t dare belittlethe benefit of Clay Bellinger (who’s also OF-eligible on DK) here, but theallure of Coors is what’s drawing me in – along with a .426 xwOBA againstright-handers. The eminently hittable Chi Chi Gonzalez is on the bump for theRockies, and while he’s had more success at home than on the road, it’s a smallenough sample that I feel a market correction and stackable situation buildingfor the Pirates mashers. There’s plenty of 1B/2B/OF combos available if you mixin Bell with the Dodgers bats, so explore them.

8/29DFS Hitting Second Baseman

StarlinCastro, MIA vs. CIN

DK($3,600), FD (3B – $2,400)

On Tuesday we scored bigwith Jason Kipnis in a pitcher’s park here, and I’m looking for hidden valueagain with Castro, a classic variance-positive hero whose price never seems toelevate despite his wide range of DFS outcomes. He had a hand in winning me aGPP and $20K in the past, and I usually fare well by using him at home facingleft-handers. With Alex Wood on the mound and our fearless veteran infielder checkingin with a .405 xwOBA against LHP the past two seasons, I feel comfortable notingan additional BvP tidbit: Castro is 5-for-10 career off Wood. He’s cheap onFanDuel too, but he’s a 3B on that site so you can look to Adam Frazier ($3,600FD) at 2B there.

8/29DFS Hitting Shortstop

TrevorStory, COL vs. PIT

DK($5,600), FD ($4,300)

Story is the top shortstop on the slate, much like Xander Bogaerts was the top SS on Tuesday (ding-dong!!). You can save a few bucks by taking Kevin Newman ($5,100 DK, $4,000 FD) but that seems counterproductive when there’s enough value elsewhere to use the best. Sure, Story is better facing southpaws, but he’s carrying a .446 xwOBA against righties and a .434 wOBA at home over the past two seasons. He’s facing a good contact manager in Trevor Williams (87.5 aEV), but a lot of that goes out the door in Coors, where sinkers and sliders go to die. If you absolutely, positively can’t fit him, Manny Machado (3B/SS $4,100 DK) makes for a bargain upside option.

8/29DFS Hitting Third Baseman

ColinMoran, PIT at COL

DK($4,800), FD ($3,700)

Moran’s aggressive approach could fare well in this hitting environment, and he’s not necessarily going to attract too much ownership with a slew of other priority plays in Pirates stacks. The .405 xwOBA vs. LHPs is an appealing metric, and while he doesn’t have the raw power of some of the other 3B on the slate, including counterpart Nolan Arenado (.309 home ISO), he’s likely to be batting fifth after Bell and looks like the finishing touch on a full 1-5 DK stack. Again, Machado is an option on DK and on FD, where he’s just $3,500.

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8/29DFS Hitting Outfielder

JocPederson, LAD at ARI

DK($4,400), FD ($3,300)

Joc went deep a couple nights ago, and while I mentioned him as an option in my Jackie Bradley Jr. writeup, I didn’t dedicate a unique space for this inconsistent-but-exciting millennial masher. I love the matchup against Merrill Kelly (.413 xwOBA vs. LHBs), who’s shown marginal effectiveness but yields a lot of long balls. Pederson is leading off once again and that’s always nice on a team with an implied total over five runs.

8/29DFS Hitting Outfielder

Aristides Aquino, CIN at MIA

DK($5,000), FD ($4,100)

I know – I’m clicking onway too hitters for a game in a pitcher’s park. But there’s not a ballyard thatcan hold the meteoric Aquino (.426 xwOBA vs. RHP) and he’s facing righty RobertDugger, who go rocked in his only Major League appearance on Aug. 5 in CitiField. We’d prefer Aquino face a lefty (.668 xwOBA against southpaws in 19 AB),but he might do that in the later innings after the Reds dispatch Dugger. Thereare loads of cheaper hitting options in friendlier confines, but I’m low-keyliking this Reds team facing the doe-eyed Dugger.

8/29DFS Hitting Outfielder

J.D. Davis, NYM vs. CHC

DK ($4,200), FD ($2,900)

Davis is batting thirdand gets a left-hander in Jon Lester, and that’s ideal considering his .476xwOBA and .359 OBP against southpaws. He’s also got a .308 ISO at home thisseason and could be entering another hot patch (3-for-8, HR in his last twogames). He’ll save you some salary and makes for a fine one-off or part of amini-Mets stack that includes Pete Alonso ($5,200 DK, $4,100 FD) and MichaelConforto ($4,500 DK, $3,300 FD).

8/29DFS Hitting Stacks

8/29 DFS Hitting Stack of the Day: Pittsburgh Pirates: No surprise here. The trick will be finding the right combination of Newman, Starling Marte ($5,800 DK, $4,200 FD), Bryan Reynolds ($5,300 DK, $4,100 FD), Moran, Jose Osuna (1B/3B $5,000 DK, $3,200 FD), Adam Frazier ($4,800 DK, $3,600 FD) and the starting catcher.

8/29 DFS Hitting Stack Runner-Up: Colorado Rockies: It’s possible to fit in a nearly full game stack in Coors without compromising pitching if we take advantage of the SD-SF game, so I’m bullish on using as many hitters from this 14-run total as we can. Charlie Blackmon ($5.700 DK, $4,400 FD), Ryan McMahon ($4,700 DK, $3,500 FD), Story and Arenado ($5,700 DK, $4,700 FD) are my preferred four in a matchup against Williams and his 5.22 xFIP. If Williams scares you that much, you can lean more heavily toward Dodgers bats or take a gander at the group below.

8/29 DFS Hitting Stack to Consider: Cincinnati Reds: Despite the tasty matchup against a rookie hurler, I don’t expect too many Reds stacks. Let’s look at the projected top five hitters here, including Aquino, Josh VanMeter ($4,200 DK, $3,000 FD), Joey Votto ($3,900 DK, $2,800 FD), Eugenio Suarez ($4,500 DK, $4,000 FD) and Freddy Galvis (SS $4,100 DK, 2B $2,700 FD). Nick Senzel ($4,400 DK, $3,200 FD) could be sneaky as well, since he’s solid (.359 xwOBA) vs. RHP.

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

8/16 MLB DFS Lineups Winners: Win Daily Staffer Tops Tournament For 100K

wesley maxwell 5 years ago

written by wesley maxwell

Today we are here to celebrate and congratulate one of our own, @TenaciousDJONES, on his six figure win last night. He rode an Indians/Mets stack to FanDuel glory. Details and how to get advice from David are included in this 8/16 MLB DFS Report.

8/16 MLB DFS Winner: David Jones of Win Daily

DFS Pro David Jones, one of our featured analysts on Win Daily, took down the $200,000 MLB Colossus on FanDuel with a grand prize of $100,000 on Thursday night. The contest had an entry fee of $1,650. The following lineup put David at the top of the tournament: Sonny Gray, Carlos Santana, Joe Panik, Jose Ramirez, Yasiel Puig, Greg Allen, J.D. Davis, Pete Alonso. You can get advice regularly from David on Win Daily as a free member or talk to him one on one in our Premium Gold Slack Chat throughout the week.

Huge Congrats to our very own @tenaciousDJONES who won over $105,000 tonight!! What a beast!! Shoutout to our subs who followed his sneaky slack stacks #DFS https://t.co/50RJUFqFGR pic.twitter.com/d7O5tlNbnm— Win Daily (@windailydfs) August 16, 2019

8/16 MLB DFS Winner: Mets/Indians

Both teams exploded last night and Tenacious D was all over them in pregame:

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You can see that line of recommendations was in our Premium Gold slack chat room. We are worth the couple of cups of coffee a month that it costs to join.

The Mets, led by Todd Frazier and Pete Alonso homers, scored 10 runs on 23 hits. Alonso went five for five with six RBI including his N.L. rookie-record tying 39th homer. Amed Rosario, batting leadoff after Jeff McNeil was injured, had five hits in six official ABs with two doubles, a triple and four runs scored.

The other games Tenacious D loved was in the Bronx. Though he mentioned the Yankees, he stacked the Indians in his winning lineup.

Some highlights from the 19 runs the Indians scored: Carlos Santana with four runs and three RBIs, including 2 HRs; Greg Allen with four each of RBI, runs and hits including a HR and Jose Ramirez with two HRs and six RBI. Ramirez had his counting stats by the end of the second inning.

8/16 MLB DFS Outlooks: Not surprisingly, the Indians are in the playoff hunt. In the lead for the AL wild-card by two games over Tampa Bay, three and a half over Oakland and nine and a half over Boston, they are also chasing Minnesota for the A.L. Central lead. They are only one-half game behind the Twins.

The Mets are surprisingly in the N.L. playoff chase. They are two games behind the current second wild-card leader, the Cubs. However, the Mets have many more teams to deal with than the A.L .contenders do, with Arizona, San Francisco, Philadelphia and Milwaukee all on the outside looking in but within three and a half games.

Also, David’s pockets will be fatter the rest of the season. Here is the final screenshot:

5 years ago 0 comment

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