Tag:

Patrick Mahomes

NFL DFS Week 4 GPP Picks Of Destiny from DFS Pro David Jones

5 years ago

written by

Week 4 in the NFL is all about finding the best opportunities for guaranteed production with high upside. Follow my stud and value GPP plays and lock in the NFL DFS Picks of Destiny.

David Jones won 100K on FanDuel! Read about it here!

David also won back-to-back GPPs!

Check back for updates closer to lineup lock on Sunday.

Quarterbacks:

Stud Quarterback: Patrick Mahomes ($9,200 FD; $7,500 DK)

I might just keep him as my number one all season. Since Tyreek Hill went down Mahomes has made stars out of his emerging receivers in Demarcus Robinson and Mecole Hardman while rejuvenating vet Sammy Watkins. Mahomes has not scored less than 27 FanDuel points in the first three games (Jags, Ravens and Raiders). This week the Chiefs head to the undefeated Detroit Lions home field to crash the party. On paper the Lions D has looked fine, mostly because they have not been losing games, however they have not had stiff competition. Week One they got rookie Kyler Murray, Week Two they got a flat Chargers squad and last week they took on the Eagles who were depleted on offense. The Chiefs are going to break these Lions hearts quick in their home dome. Mahomes has 10 touchdowns so far this season and he should be able to add at least another two or three this Sunday. He is as safe as it gets at quarterback and is going to win a lot of people a lot of NFL DFS money this season.

Stud Quarterback Pivots: Lamar Jackson, DeShaun Watson

Mid Quarterback: Russell Wilson ($7,800 FD; $6,100 DK)

Well I wish that Wilson wouldn’t have gone off last week because now his ownership will be higher, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t in an elite spot. We can’t just fade him because he is popular. The Arizona Cardinals just gave up 38 points the Carolina Panthers, led by Kyle Allen. The Cards have given up about 300 yards and four touchdowns to the tight end position alone in three games (see Will Dissly below). I do tend to like Wilson better at home but the matchup is a little too good to ignore. I also like that Wilson isn’t afraid to run the ball and that Chris Carson is struggling with fumbles and with breaking tackles this year. Pete Carroll should focus on the passing attack here and that is going to benefit Wilson, the receivers and the tight end. The icing on the cake will be if Wilson vultures a touchdown from Carson in the Red Zone.

Mid Quarterback Pivot: Jared Goff

Punt Quarterback: Kyle Allen: ($6,800 FD; $5,200 DK)

Kyle Allen is going to get the start against the Houston Texans with Cam Newton still banged up. There is talk that if Allen continues to perform than he can officially take the job from Newton. That is all yet to be seen, but what we do know is Allen is getting another chance against the Texans defensive backs who are getting beat constantly. Last week they couldn’t hang with Keenan Allen who got 183 yards and two touchdowns. They have given up five touchdowns to receivers so far this season and are allowing opposing QBs to complete 70% of their passes. I do not expect Allen to throw another four touchdowns again this week, but I think he hits value. If you love paying up at the other positions you can pair him with Moore, Samuel, McCaffrey or Olsen in your Carolina Panthers NFL DFS stacks.

Punt Quarterback Pivot: Daniel Jones

Running Backs

Stud RB: Austin Ekeler ($8,100 FD; $8,000 DK)

He goes against the Miami Dolphins this Sunday. Ekeler has been one of the most impressive duel threat backs early in the NFL season. News just dropped that Melvin Gordon will join the team again, however he is not playing this week. Ekeler is going to get one last shot to start in this offense and make a case for more playing time once Gordon does get back on the field. He can not ask for a better matchup. The Dolphins can’t stop the run or the pass and Ekeler contributes in both. He has over six targets in the passing game every week and four total touchdowns. He has actually gotten more yards in each game as a receiver this season than a running back. Ekeler did not get in the endzone last game against the Houston Texans but this week he does it, at least once.

Stud Pivot: Christian McCaffrey

Mid RB: Marlon Mack ($7,300 FD; $6,100 DK)

Mack gets to lead the Colts backfield against the Oakland Raiders. Last week Mack only got 16 carries but was a bit limited with a calf injury. He was still able to get 4.6 yard per carry and found his way in the end zone. He struggled the week prior vs the Titans, but they have a very good defensive line (they have not given up a rushing TD this season). The first week Mack rushed for 174 yards and a touchdown vs the L.A. Chargers. I like the fact that the game is at home and I expect the Colts to be winning. If they are, that means Mack likely contributed. He will also be in charge of running down the clock in the fourth. I like the opportunity, price and upside for him this week.

Mid Pivots: Derrick Henry, Kerryon Johnson, Chris Carson

Wide Receiver

Stud WR: Keenan Allen ($8,100 FD; $7,600 DK)

What is there to say. The Chargers play the Miami Dolphins that have given up NIVE receiving touchdowns in only three games. Allen has gotten targeted over 10 times in every game this season and has an astounding 403 yards and three touchdowns. This is an elite matchup that is highly unlikely to fail. I don’t mind playing him and Ekeler in the same lineup. Punting Rivers with the two of them would make sense in NFL DFS.

Stud Pivots: DeAndre Hopkins, Julio Jones, TY Hilton (if healthy)

Mid WR: Tyler Lockett ($6,600 FD; $6,300 DK)

His price is wayyyyy too cheap. The Cardinals let Kyle Allen throw four touchdowns on them last week, Lamar Jackson threw two the week before that and Matt Stafford threw three in Week One. Lockett has 14 and 12 targets the past two weeks and two touchdowns in the first three games. He is Russell Wilson’s favorite target. Lockett is a speedster that should have no trouble getting behind this Cardinals’ defense. I like paring Wilson with him and Dissly (or Metcalf) in my NFL DFS Seattle stacks.

Mid WR Pivots: Kupp/Woods, Golladay, Watkins/Robinson

Value WR: Sterling Shepard ($6,500 FD; $5,800 DK)

Shepard is healthy and now seems to have a more competent quarterback in Danny Dimes. Daniel Jones targeted him nine times in his first start, and will now need to focus even more on the passing game with Saquan Barkley going down. Shepard’s price is simply too cheap for being a highly used wide receiver one especially since he is going vs the Red Skins’ defense. Every Quarterback they have faced this season has throw for exactly three touchdowns. If it isn’t Shepard, then it should be Engram. A great matchup for a cheap price is a fantastic NFL DFS play.

WR Value Pivots: Cole Beasley, Terry McLaurin, Calvin Ridley, Josh Gordon

Tight End

Stud TE: Evan Engram ($6,800 FD; $5,700 DK)

A lot of the same reasons I listed about Sterling Shepard apply to Evan Engram. He is constantly producing and has over 100 yards twice this season and two touchdowns. They play the Washington Redskins.

Stud TE Pivot: Travis Kelce

Value TE: Will Dissly ($5,400 FD; $3,600 DK)

The Cardinals are getting destroyed by tight ends. They have given up four touchdowns and about 300 yards in three games to the TE position. The Seahawks’ Will Dissly has three touchdowns in the past two games. The Seahawks also just traded away their backup tight end. It seems like the perfect NFL DFS scenario. All we need is for Pete Carroll to attack what works against this defense and not try and reinvent the wheel.

Defense

Chargers
Rams
Baltimore
Colts

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold Right Here! Projections, weather reports, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

Follow Win Daily Sports on twitter @WinDailyDFS. Please check out everything that Win Daily Sports has to offer by becoming a premium member. New articles, projection models and data are being added frequently. We can’t say enough about our private Win Daily Slack Channel as it provides one on one coaching for all sports and all platforms. There are channels set up for MLB, PGA, NASCAR, WNBA, CFL, NBA, and NFL. We also have a channel dedicated to sports betting and one dedicated to Monkey Knife Fight where we provide winners to cash in on daily. We have a special promo for a limited time only to sign up for a full 12 months at only $199.99 or a monthly plan at $19.99 which are both 50% off our regular price.

5 years ago 0 comment

Week 4 DFS QB Picks: Cash, GPP and Value Targets

5 years ago

written by

The Kiddie Corps of Kyle Allen and Daniel Jones defined the state of QB play in Week 3. As the Week 4 DFS QB Picks column starts rolling, expect the big boys to step and deliver.

As usual, we’re focusing on the main slate, so Eagles-Packers (Carson Wentz v. Aaron Rodgers) on Thursday night and Dak Prescott (Cowboys-Saints on Sunday night) won’t get a lot of focus.

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

Wanna catch my DFS musings on Twitter? Follow me here!

Week 4 DFS QB Picks – Cash Game Passers

1) Phillip Rivers, LAC at MIA

DK ($6,200), FD ($7,800)

Any quarterback is a Cash Game play against the Dolphins, who allow 36.36 Fantasy points per game to opposing passers. Rivers was sacked five times in the loss to the Texans on Sunday and remains 0-fer since 2015 when he has attempted more than 40 passes.

This will be the week where Rivers gets his air yards per attempt healthy. He’s sitting at 3.0, nearly a yard less from last season. Look for his 7.8 passing yards after catch per completion to get fat as well.

2) Deshaun Watson, HOU vs. CAR

DK ($6,400), FD ($8,200)

Like Rivers, Watson is getting 7.8 yards after catch per completion. He’s also been blitzed 10 times per game, yet his 7.7 yards per scramble is making defenders pay dearly. An underrated sign of a potential breakout is that Watson has cut down on his bad throw percentage, paring it to 12.9% after after last season’s 16.6%

Carolina remains an above-average defense when it comes to Fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, yet are 30th in rushing yards allowed per game to opposing passers. That’s a strong sign that Watson could rack up 40-50 rushing yards and a score in a game that will be more offensive friendly than advertised.

3) Dak Prescott, DAL at NO (Sunday Night)

DK ($6,300), FD ($8,400)

Gotta add him here if you’re playing the full Sunday slate. Saints are 30th in QB-friendly Fantasy production, with them allowing a combined 348.7 yards and 3.3 TDs per game from them. This will be a track meet that makes Prescott a strong CG play for another week.

3) Jacoby Brissett, IND vs. OAK

DK ($5,400), FD ($7,300)

Count on Brissett to continue the upward trend of his Fantasy output. He posted 20.8 Fantasy points last week and hit 8.4 yards per attempt with another multi-TD passing performance. Oakland is 22nd in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposition passers while allowing 295 yards per game.

Brissett completes nearly 72 percent of his passes, and I’m all-in with his 121 TD%+ rate. Andrew Luck he’s not, but Brissett is a subtle assassin that will be a bargain about Week 4 DFS QB Picks.

4) Matthew Stafford, DET vs. KC

DK ($5,500), FD ($6,900)

Stafford let a lot of his down with his lackluster effort against the Eagles, but I have just enough blind faith in him to again offer him as a Cash Game passer. He’s getting a solid 12.4 yards per completion and his 7.7 average depth of target will play well, especially with rookie TE T.J. Hockenson, who faces a Chiefs defense that is 27th in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing TEs.

The Lions have been sure-handed thus, as Stafford has had just two of his 107 attempts dropped. He’s produced 5.9 air yards per pass completion and I think he’ll be up to the task of matching up with Patrick Mahomes in what should be a game on heavy stack alert.

5) Russell Wilson, SEA at ARI

DK ($6,100), FD ($7,800)

I don’t suspect Wilson will attempt 50 passes this week, but he should come close to the 27.4 Fantasy points per game he has averaged thus far. Wilson is getting 9.9 yards per completion and has averaged 300 yards per game without throwing an interception in 105 attempts.

The Cardinals are 29th in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing quarterbacks and have given up a league-high 47 rushing yards per game to opposing passers. I can see 310-320 yards passing and at least one rushing score of out of Wilson.

Tired of losing money on your DFS and Sportsbook? Sign up today and become a winner while turning your passion for sports into a second stream of income!

Week 3 DFS QB Picks – GPP Passers

1) Patrick Mahomes, KC at DET

DK ($7,500), FD ($8,400)

News flash: The Lions are eighth in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing quarterbacks. That’s not hot dog water considering that Phillip Rivers and Carson Wentz are among the pivots (Canadian term) they’ve faced. Of all of his PlayStation-level numbers, it’s Mahomes’ 9.6 yards after the catch per completion — without Tyreek Hill — that’s most impressive.

2) Daniel Jones, NYG vs. WAS

DK ($5,300), FD ($7,300)

You know they’re going to throw the ball now that Saquan Barkley is out until perhaps after Thanksgiving. Jones is a strong value play against a Washington defense that is almost as Fantasy QB-friendly as the Dolphins. giving up 34.29 FP per game. Much of his 13.6 YAC per completion came from Evan Engram, but against a team that allows three TD passes per game and 25 yards per game to opposing quarterbacks, I’d be willing to play Jones in a lineup or two.

3) Tom Brady, NE at BUF

DK ($6,600), FD ($7,800)

Tommy hasn’t been so Terrific against the Bills recently, posting a 3:4 TD:INT rate in his past four games against them. His yards per attempt have bounced from 8.60 to 5.25 YPA in the same span. He’s here because the Pats’ run game is inconsistent, which means he’ll throw around 30-35 times. There’s risk, as the Bills are sixth overall in limiting Fantasy points to opposing QBs.

4) Jared Goff, LAR vs. TB

DK ($6,300), FD ($7,700)

Let’s not give Goff too many slices of the Pie of Blame. He’s had five dropped passes already after having 13 last season. His air yards per completion is cut more than half, while his average depth per target is almost split in two. The Buccaneers got shredded by a rookie QB last week. and Goff has way too much firepower to continue languishing as an afterthought.

5) Aaron Rodgers, GB vs. PHI (Thursday Night)

DK ($6,000), FD ($7,700)

The better of the two QBs for Showdown formats. The Eagles still allow 300 yards per game and Rodgers is too damn good to go a fourth straight game under 15 Fantasy points.

6) Carson Wentz, PHI at GB (Thursday Night)

DK ($5,600), FD ($7,700)

Likely another game without DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffrey. Yes, the seven drops in the loss to the Lions is crippling to his numbers, but how much longer will we dodge the question of whether we’ve been sold a bag of goods on how great Wentz is supposed to be. He’s likely Matthew Stafford when everyone wants him to be Tom Brady.

7) Matt Ryan, ATL vs. TEN

DK ($5,900), FD ($7,900)

The interceptions (six) remain an issue, but he did get past the 20 FP barrier in the loss to the Colts. I’ll keep waiting for his average depth per target to get beyond his current 6.6. They’re not dropping ball in the ATL, as Ryan has had just two of his 123 attempts plop out of his receivers’ hands. I’ll bet this is a high-scoring affair with Ryan outslugging Marcus Mariota.

8) Jameis Winston, TB @ LAR

DK ($5,700), FD ($7,500)

Good Number: Has averaged 384 yards and 2.5 TDs in two previous games against the Rams.

Bad Number: Uh, Jameis…about that 2.5 air yards per pass attempt…

9) Kyler Murray, ARI vs. SEA

DK ($6,000), FD ($7,600)

Good Number: He’s averaging 45.6 attempts per game.

Bad Number: The 2.86 yards per attempt against the Panthers makes me sleep with the lights on.

10) Baker Mayfield, CLE at BAL

DK ($5,800), FD ($7,500)

Good Number: A 7.4 YAC per completion is due to rise once he snaps out of his early season funk.

Bad Number: 11.3 Fantasy points per game does not scream “Breakout Star.”

Week 4 DFS QB Picks – Value and Punt Passers

1) Andy Dalton, CIN at PIT (Monday Night)

DK ($5,200), FD ($7,100)

Decreasing Fantasy points per game since Week 1. Steelers are giving up 306 yards and 2.3 TDs to opposing passers, so Dalton could get Captain’s status for Showdown.

2) Derek Carr, OAK at IND

DK ($5,300), FD ($7,100)

Colts are 28th vs. opposing TEs, so this should be a good outing for Darren Waller. His production could boost Carr into the outer edge of GPP performers.

3) Kyle Allen, CAR at HOU

DK ($5,200), FD ($6,800)

If Allen can get his WRs involved, he makes for a sleeper play. The Texans are 26th in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposing wideouts.

4) Marcus Mariota, TEN at ATL

DK ($5,100), FD ($6,900)

Hovering at under 61% completion rate, but he hasn’t thrown an interception in 90 attempts and his running skills on a fast track at Mercedes-Benz Stadium makes him intriguing.

5) Josh Allen, BUF vs. NE

DK ($5,600), FD ($7,400)

Low-end boom/bust option. Running ability could outshine his shaky passing numbers.

6) Mason Rudolph, PIT vs. CIN (Monday Night)

DK ($5,300), FD ($6,500)

Expect the Steelers to open things up for Rudolph. Completion rate will be scary, but he has the weapons to deliver 4-5 big plays on Monday night.

5 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports NFL

NFL DFS GPP Advice – Stick’s Stacks for Week Three

brgrewe@gmail.com 5 years ago

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

No need to waste any time, lets get right back into NFL DFS GPP action for Week Three. For those of you who still prefer cash formats, be sure to check out my article for your Week Three NFL DFS Cash Games.

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

If you have any questions and would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.

The purpose of this weekly article is to identify team/game stacks that we are going to use for an NFL DFS GPP. For those of you that don’t know, a “team stack” is simply multiple players from the same team (I rarely ever use more than three players on a given team).

A “game stack” is similar, except we are going to use players from both teams in a given game. Focusing on team stacks and game stacks is incredibly useful in the NFL DFS GPP environment. That being said, let’s get to this week’s top NFL DFS stacks!

Top Game Stack

Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs (53)

There’s really not a whole lot to say about this game besides that you are going to want to get some exposure to it in one or more of your NFL DFS GPP lineups. Both offenses come into this game scorching hot and I’ll be sure to get some shares of both teams in DFS this weekend.

Keep in mind, both quarterbacks are extremely expensive, but that should help keep ownership down a bit throughout the industry.

Baltimore Ravens

Lamar Jackson ($7,000)
Marquise Brown ($5,900)
Mark Andrews ($4,600)
Mark Ingram ($5,700)
Willie Snead ($4,200)

Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes ($7,600)
Travis Kelce ($7,100)
Sammy Watkins ($6,800)
Mecole Harman ($5,000)
Demarcus Robinson ($5,200)

Top Team Stacks

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Tampa Bay comes in with what is looking like the fourth highest implied total on the slate sitting around 27 points. This is a great number to focus on when building NFL DFS GPP lineups. Usually, I’ll always have a big focus on teams that have an implied total of 25 or more points and a game script that I can predict/support.

The Giants are in my opinion, the absolute worst team in defending the pass right now and their run defense isn’t much better – this leads me to having a very positive game script for the Bucs’ offense as a whole. The one thing that is scaring me a bit is: unlike a typical Bruce Arians offense (pass-heavy), TeamRankings.com shows us that the Bucs sit towards the bottom in the NFL for pass attempts per game.

First off, I don’t think Bruce Arians has completely changed his coaching style. Secondly, as the sample size continues to grow, my bet is that the Bucs will be one of the most pass-heavy teams in the NFL. Mike Evans and the boys are due for a big week.

Mike Evans ($6,600)
Peyton Barber ($4,600)
Jameis Winston ($5,400)
Chris Godwin ($6,900)
O.J. Howard ($3,800)

Buffalo Bills – I love the way the Bills have been playing on offense. Josh Allen is crushing it to start the year and I love him in all formats in DFS this week… especially for a NFL DFS GPP. He’s due for a big passing game and will always do damage via the run (not to mention the Bengals are a bottom five defense in defending not only the pass, but the run as well). Bills Mafia, here we go!

Josh Allen ($5,900)
John Brown ($5,500)
Zay Jones ($3,300)
Frank Gore ($4,400)
Cole Beasley ($4,400)

San Francisco 49ers – I’m all in for going right back to the well to roster some 49ers in a NFL DFS GPP. I don’t think anyone is going to play them this week and their pricing is more than reasonable. This is a great spot to get contrarian in your lineup builds.

George Kittle ($5,800)
Jimmy Garoppolo ($6,200)
Deebo Samuel ($4,500)
Matt Breida ($5,400)
Marquise Goodwin ($5,000)
Dante Pettis ($4,500)

Arizona Cardinals – Although Arizona has a slightly lower implied team total than I’d like to see (~24 points), I am really liking the idea of getting some Arizona stacks in my NFL DFS GPP lineups. Larry Fitzgerald has been incredibly successful versus a zone defense and that is what Carolina is going to bring to the table.

Kingsbury’s air raid offense is going to have multiple “trip” sets of receivers on one side of the field for most of this game and I think the Panthers will really struggle in defending that for a full game. If the Cardinals’ offensive line can hold the pass rush (that’s a big “if”), Kyler Murray is going to have a monster day with both his arm and legs.

Larry Fitzgerald ($5,100)
Kyler Murray ($5,800)
David Johnson ($6,800)
Christian Kirk ($5,000)
Damiere Byrd ($3,000)

Sample NFL DFS GPP Lineup

QB: Josh Allen

RB: Frank Gore

RB: Aaron Jones

WR: Nelson Agholor

WR: Mike Evans

WR: John Brown

TE: George Kittle

FLEX: Christian McCaffrey

DST: Buffalo Bills

Josh Allen Featured Image via Erik Drost

5 years ago 0 comment

NFL

Week 3 DFS QB Picks: Cash, GPP and Value Targets

5 years ago

written by

It’s Week 3 of DFS QB Picks. Let’s all pray it’s less brutal than Week 2.

Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Sam Darnold and Trevor Siemien were all KO’ed with various forms of injuries, with Roethlisberger done for the season, Brees is out for up to six weeks, Darnold is down until Week Five and Siemien is likely to be in dry dock for a hot minute.

I think Florida Evans put it best.

As usual, we’ll focus on the main slate of Sunday afternoon games with a brief nod to Sunday night’s Rams-Browns and Monday night’s Bears-Redskins contests.

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

Wanna catch my DFS musings on Twitter? Follow me here!

Week 3 DFS QB Picks – Cash Game Passers

1) Dak Prescott, DAL vs. MIA

DK ($6,500), FD ($8,400)

Dak Prescott is a legit QB1. There. Another thing I never suspect I’d type in 2019. Prescott has 447 completed air yards and six touchdown passes along with 81 yards rushing. Someone wants a new contract. He’s only made two bad throws in his first 62 attempts, so it’s all the more reason to run with Prescott against the most QB-friendly defense in Fantasy football.

Miami traded Minkah Fitzpatrick to the Steelers on Monday, basically further declaring their secondary an open city for Prescott to march through. The Dolphins were 27th in Fantasy points allowed per game to wide receivers with Fitzpatrick, so I will buy into the unlikely and play Prescott in Cash Game formats, with the added bonus of at least 40 rushing yards and the prospect of a ground touchdown.

2) Russell Wilson, SEA vs. NO

DK ($6,300), FD ($7,600)

Wilson is averaging a solid 20.4 Fantasy points per game. He’ll move beyond solid against the Saints, who are 26th in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposing quarterbacks. New Orleans is also 27th in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposing wide receivers, a scary reality considering that 80% of Wilson’s 496 passing yards have come after the catch.

I think we’ve seen the peak of Wilson’s rushing. Don’t get it twisted: he can still hurt opponents on the ground, but the maturity as a passer makes his rushing attempts more precise than just a sheer desire to do so. That said, I’ll predict Wilson gives you a rushing TD on top of a big passing afternoon.

3) Philip Rivers, LAC vs. HOU

DK ($5,800), FD ($7,500)

On a bad day, Rivers still threw for 293 yards. He’s not Gardner Minshew and Keenan Allen and Mike Williams will throw more fear into the Texans secondary than the Jaguars’ middling receiving corps did. Rivers has never recorded a 300-yard game against the Texans, but he’s averaged 3.5 TD passes against them. He’s averaged 10.83 adjusted passing yards per attempt versus the Texans.

Rivers is thriving off oyards after completion, amassing 479 of his 626 yards via that route. Much of that is credited to Allen and running back Austin Ekeler, who have combined for 56,5% of Rivers’ 46 completions. Creating havoc after the catch will be a must since Rivers will have to account for where DE J.J. Watt lines up.

Rivers also tends to get more accurate as the game goes on, completing 65% of pass attempts 21-30 and 80% beyond 30 attempts. This game should be a slugfest, so I’d bet on Rivers going well north of 30 attempts.

4) Deshaun Watson, HOU at LAC

DK ($6,400), FD ($8,200)

So the Jaguars remembered how to play defense. Watson burned a host of Cash Gamers last week, but I’m counting on a rebound on Sunday. With rushing scores in each of his first two games, Watson’s running only enhances his value. Although he’s getting just 4.9 air yards per completion thus far, Watson has added nearly two yards to his yards after the catch per completion from last season..

Watson has six big plays in his first two games, with his receivers (DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller V and Kenny Stills) each with a pair. The Chargers are middle of the pack when it comes to Fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers, but their 190 yards allowed will be tested — and passed — by Watson and the Texans on Sunday.

5) Jameis Winston, TB at NYG

DK ($5,400), FD ($7,300)

The Giants are 29th in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing quarterbacks, giving up 329.5 yards and 2.5 TD passes per contest. Winston will have a healthier Mike Evans this week, and the progression from Week 1 to Week 2 is going to carry into Week 3.

If the Buccaneers want an effective Winston, they should keep him in single RB looks. His passer rating is 88.5 when in single sets compared to a 63.6 when lined up in shotgun. It’s a small sample, yes, yet again keep in mind that Week 3 will essentially feel like Week 1 for Evans. Winston’s under the radar right now, which is why the value and upside are a perfect Cash Game pairing.

Tired of losing money on your DFS and Sportsbook? Sign up today and become a winner while turning your passion for sports into a second stream of income!

Week 3 DFS QB Picks – GPP Passers

1) Matthew Stafford, DET at PHI

DK ($5,500), FD ($6,900)

Philly is giving up 350 yards and three touchdown passes per game. There’s nothing to suggest anyone in that secondary is going to slow down Kenny Golladay. The Eagles have allowed eight completions of better than 20 yards and 368 yards after the catch. This screams Field Day for Stafford.

2) Tom Brady, NE vs. NYJ

DK ($6,600), FD ($7,800)

In eight of his last 10 meetings against the Jets, including the past six, Brady has thrown at least two touchdown passes. He averaged better than 10 yards per attempt in the two games against them last season. Brady’s come out of the gate with an average of 13.8 yards per completion, his highest since 2011. The yardage totals, however (he has just one 300-yard game versus the Jets since 2014), is the main reason I can’t suggest him for Cash Games.

3) Carson Wentz, PHI vs. DET

DK ($5,600), FD ($7,700)

Alshon Jeffery (calf) is unlikely. DeSean Jackson (groin) is out, so ownership may be low. Wentz is magic after halftime, completing 35 of 48 passes for 385 yards and three touchdowns. That’s a sharp contrast from going 18 of 34 for 159 yards with a touchdown and an interception in the first 30 minutes of play.

4) Jacoby Brissett, IND vs. ATL

DK ($5,200), FD ($6,800)

Yes, T.Y. Hilton is getting his targets, but what I like about Brissett is how he’s utilizing TEs Jack Doyle and Eric Ebron. The duo have caught 9 of 12 targets, with Ebron catching one of Brissett’s five touchdown passes. The Colts are averaging 5.5 yards per carry, which strongly suggests Brissett will have opportunities for downfield shots against the Falcons that he didn’t have in the first two games against the Chargers and Titans. He’s perhaps the best value play of the week.

5) Patrick Mahomes, KC vs. BAL

DK ($7,600), FD ($9,200)

The Ravens are fifth in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing passers. They did give up 349 yards to Kyler Murray on Sunday, but kept him out of the end zone. I don’t suspect they’ll do the same against Mahomes, who threw for 278 of his 443 yards against Oakland in the second quarter. He looked somewhat ordinary outside of that insane 15-minute run. Mahomes is averaging 10.7 yards per completion and no matter what, he’s not going to remain on a 6,568-yard, 56-TD pass pace. There’s better value passers with better matchups in Week 3, so do know there’s some Buyer Beware that comes with Mahomes this week.

6) Baker Mayfield, CLE vs. LAR

DK ($6,000), FD ($7,500)

Good Number: 112 Adjusted Yards per Atttempt+ means he’ll continue to stretch defenses now that Odell Beckham Jr. is in tune.

Bad Number: The Rams are third in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing quarterbacks.

7) Aaron Rodgers, GB vs. DEN

DK ($6,100), FD ($7,900)

Good Number: Rodgers, who’s averaged 7.8 yards per attempt in his career, is not going to sit on his current average of 6.4 YPA much longer.

Bad Number: The Broncos are eighth in Fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks and have allowed just 189.5 passing yards per game.

8) Kyler Murray, ARI vs. CAR

DK ($5,800), FD ($7,200)

Good Number: Only one interception in a league-high 94 attempts, plus he’s averaging 12.2 yards per completion.

Bad Number: He’s had 11 poor throws and just one completion from them. The Panthers are 0-2, but their defense is still good enough to make Murray look more like a rookie than he has thus far.

9) Lamar Jackson, BAL at KC

DK ($7,000), FD ($8,500)

Good Number: He’s averaging 14.5 yards per completion. That’s not all Hollywood Brown, either.

Bad Number: It’s nitpicking with the start that he’s had, so the 175 air yards counts as a “negative.”

10) Jimmy Garoppolo, SF vs. PIT

DK ($6,200), FD ($7,200)

Good Number: He’s getting 8.58 net yards per attempt with an under the radar receiving corps.

Bad Number: Wow, that 3.3 depth yards per target is something we’re going to have to discuss, Jimmy…

Week 3 DFS QB Picks – Value and Punt Passers

1) Derek Carr, OAK at MIN

DK ($4,900), FD ($6,700)

The Vikings are 21st in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing quarterbacks. Weren’t they supposed to be elite? Most will have Carr off their charts, but I’ll play the exception.

2) Matt Ryan, ATL at IND

DK ($5,700), FD ($7,800)

Five interceptions lead the league. Even with the big Week 2 outings from Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley, Ryan is still averaging a mere 5.6 adjusted yards gained per pass attempt.

3) Mitchell Trubisky, CHI vs. WAS

DK ($5,100), FD ($6,800)

The numbers are putrid in his first two starts, but nothing says “improvement is coming” like facing the Redskins and their 31st ranked defense when it comes to Fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.

4) Kirk Cousins, MIN vs. OAK

DK ($5,100), FD ($7,200)

As ugly a Week 2 that he had, keep in mind Cousins leads the league with a 14.9 yards per completion. Among the DFS Week 3 QB Picks, Cousins is near the top when it comes to “either/or.”

5) Mason Rudolph, PIT at SF

DK ($4,800), FD ($6,800)

If James Connor is limited, Rudolph will be north — well north — of 30 pass attempts. Look for Vance McDonald and James Washington to be the big winners in the new QB regime in Pittsburgh. The Niners are seventh in Fantasy points allowed to opposing passers, which is why I’m not as optimistic about Rudolph as I am with any of the other DFS Week 3 QB Picks.

Sign up and get started with WinDailySports! We have your sport and the experts to help make you money. Why lose another buck when you can win TODAY!

5 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports NFL

NFL DFS Cash Games – Week Three Checkdown

StixPicks 5 years ago

written by StixPicks

Another great week of NFL DFS Cash Games in Week Two! Over 80% of the player field in last week’s Checkdown hit value, including the breakout prediction of Deebo Samuel. Let’s get right back to it for the Week Three Checkdown for your NFL DFS Cash Games.

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

My articles will be mainly meant for DraftKings, but you can certainly use this information for other DFS websites.

If you have any questions and would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter. I’m always available to help NFL DFS players make the most of their investments.

Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes ($7,600) – Mahomes is averaging damn near 35 points a week in DFS. If you can find a way to fit him into your lineup at what I still think is a reasonable salary, lock him in.
Lamar Jackson ($7,000) – Lamar Jackson is the only quarterback in the NFL that is off to a hotter start than Patrick Mahomes. In Week Two, the Ravens play Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs… we may see Lamar be asked to play at a higher pace than we have so far. This is going to be the Game of the Week and you’re going to want to get exposure to it in your NFL DFS Cash Games.
Josh Allen ($5,900) – If you need to save some salary at the quarterback position, Josh Allen makes for a fine play. Jimmy Garoppolo and the 49ers just torched this Bengals’ defense and I expect Allen and company to do the same. His fantasy points are a little too dependent on rushing touchdowns to start the year, but I trust that Allen will hit value again on Sunday.
Kyle Allen ($4,000) – Now that Cam Newton has been ruled out, you can lock in Allen to save a TON of salary.
~~Teddy Bridgewater ($4,700) –~~ An away game in Seattle is not the friendliest of conditions for Teddy Bridgewater to make his first competitive NFL start since 2015 (I do not count the irrelevant start in 2018 once the Saints rested their starters), but the cheap price tag is attractive for NFL DFS Cash Games. Seattle’s defense has been very beatable via the pass, so I see no reason why Teddy Bridgewater can’t get 15+ DFS points and hit value at an incredibly low price point.

Running Backs

Saquon Barkley ($9,100) – He is Saquon Barkley and always is in play in any DFS format if you can afford him.
Christian McCaffrey ($8,700) – Hopefully DFS players are a little shy in rostering McCaffrey in Week Three after that brutal performance last Thursday night. I’ll always use McCaffrey in DFS Cash Games; especially in full-point PPR formats like DraftKings.
Dalvin Cook ($7,800) – Dalvin Cook is currently averaging the second most points per game on DraftKings at the running back position (only trailing Austin Ekeler). Gary Kubiak and the Vikings are clearly committed to running the ball, so keep rostering Dalvin Cook in DFS at a significant discount from guys like Barkley, Elliott, McCaffrey, and Kamara. Dalvin Cook is currently matchup-proof.
Austin Ekeler ($7,200) – Personally, I’m not a believer in Austin Ekeler, but the usage is there through two weeks and the loss of Hunter Henry should certainly benefit his fantasy value. I love this matchup against Houston, as we should be in store for a sneaky shootout.
Aaron Jones ($6,100) – Aaron Jones had a heck of a game last Sunday against the Vikings and should be able to ride that hot performance into another big fantasy performance against the Broncos. The Packers are at home and favored by over a touchdown. That usually bodes well for running backs.
Devonta Freeman ($4,900)
~~Miles Sanders (3,900) –~~ It was great to see Miles Sanders get a little more involved in the passing attack on Monday night. Sanders has yet to deliver a solid fantasy output, but at this price, I’m willing to bet he has his first double-digit fantasy performance. The Detroit defense has already allowed 13 receptions to opposing running backs and rank in the bottom five in fantasy points allowed to running backs.

Wide Receivers

DeAndre Hopkins ($7,800) – The Chargers do not have the pass defense they had a few years ago. DeAndre Hopkins had one of his worst games in quite some time last week against Jalen Ramsey and the Jaguars. Don’t expect Hopkins to stay quiet two weeks in a row! Hopkins will almost always be my number one choice at receiver for NFL DFS Cash Games.
Julio Jones ($7,300) – You’re going to want one to try your best to roster one of these top-tier wide receivers that are $7,000 or more. Julio is coming off of one of his best games in quite some time and should be able to tear up the Colts’ secondary this Sunday. He is one of the few wide receivers that are a lock for 10 or more targets each week.
Keenan Allen ($7,000) – You’re going to want to get exposure to this Texans @ Chargers game in Week Three. Keenan Allen is my favorite Charger to get exposure to but I wouldn’t blame you if you went with Ekeler instead.
Kenny Golladay ($6,600) – The volume is always there for Golladay and if you pay up at quarterback and running back this week in DFS, you may not have the salary to afford a Hopkins or Julio Jones. Golladay has a nice price and an even better matchup against the Philadelphia secondary that cannot stop a nosebleed.
Tyler Lockett ($6,200) – Great price with an even better matchup against P.J. Williams.
Tyler Boyd ($6,500) – Volume, volume, volume. There isn’t much more to say about Tyler Boyd. While A.J. Green is injured, keep getting shares of Tyler Boyd in NFL DFS Cash Games.
Nelson Agholor ($3,600) – He will be 50% owned in cash games at a ridiculously low price. Hard to avoid Agholor in Week Three.
John Brown ($5,500) – I used to think of John Brown as only a “deep ball threat” but he is much more than that in 2019. The volume has been there on a weekly basis and I don’t anticipate that stopping. John Brown is cash game viable and offers a great ceiling to DFS players… at a great price.
Larry Fitzgerald ($5,100) – The veteran wideout is coming off back-to-back 100 yard games with 11+ targets in each of them. This is probably going to be the norm with Kliff Kingsbury’s air raid offense.
Deebo Samuel ($4,500) – His price went up, but he’s still very affordable. I am a firm believer Samuel is the most talented wideout for the 49ers and will continue to get more targets on a weekly basis.

Tight Ends

Zach Ertz ($5,700) – Zach Ertz under $6,000?
Evan Engram ($5,200) – He’s the best receiver on the Giants that’s not named Saquon Barkley. With 22 targets already on the season, Engram is a cash game lock until further notice.
Mark Andrews ($4,600) – Andrews is a great pivot to get cheap exposure to the Baltimore @ Kansas City shootout.
Greg Olsen ($3,700) – Too cheap in an excellent matchup.

Defense/Special Teams

Dallas Cowboys ($4,300)
Buffalo Bills ($3,400)
Green Bay Packers ($3,400)

Sample Lineup

QB: Kyler Murray

RB: Christian McCaffrey

RB: Devonta Freeman

WR: Keenan Allen

WR: Larry Fitzgerald

WR: Kenny Golladay

TE: Greg Olsen

FLEX: Frank Gore

DST: New England Patriots

5 years ago 0 comment

NFL

DFS: Week Two Injury Report

5 years ago

written by

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, weather reports, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

I can only assume that you walked away a winner from Week One by listening to our podcasts, reading our strategy pieces, and staying up to date on our injury report. So, congratulations! If you didn’t, don’t be concerned, as your time is coming. Now, let’s discuss the Week Two injury report.

Mike Evans

Evans battled a stomach bug all last week, and it showed on the field. The weather was hot and humid while Evans struggled to stay hydrated and explosive. On top of that, Jameis Winston didn’t have the best showing (to put it nicely). With all of that said, I expect Evans to bounce back.

Julio Jones

Jones and the injury report go together like a fine wine and perfectly aged cheese. I say that because ultimately, he usually performs extremely well despite any designations and concerns. The issue this week is that it’s an unfamiliar injury with his wrist, which can compromise his ability to catch the ball. I’m watching the report all week on this one before throwing him into lineups.

Tyler Lockett

Ah, Tyler Lockett, the pride of Kansas State, my Alma Mater. I still smile when I remember watching Lockett in person as he returned punts for touchdowns that glorious 2012 season. I digress, Lockett showed up on the injury report on Wednesday after being presumed completely healthy following the Week One victory over the Bengals. Watch Lockett’s status on Thursday and Friday for a better picture. I’m hoping this turns into a minor issue and scares most away from one of the most efficient receivers.

Joe Mixon

I tweeted a picture and a short blurb about Mixon’s injury here. He had a classic lateral ankle sprain mechanism of injury as he was forced down by two defenders. The good news is that this is a manageable injury that responds very well to active rest and rehab. Unfortunately, it can take a couple of weeks to get back to 100%. He also mentioned on Wednesday that his intention is to play on Sunday. Regardless, I’m fading him in DFS unless we hear he is back to full speed by Friday (which I do not expect)

Update: Mixon was limited at practice on Thursday and continues to be day to day.

Mike Williams

This is an interesting case as I went back to watch the play that he was injured on, and nothing jumped out at me. I have a few theories in mind that aren’t worth mentioning specifically, but what matters is that on Wednesday coach Anthony Lynn said that he was “concerned” for Williams’ knee. How concerned? Well, the Chargers signed another depth receiver on Wednesday in light of Williams’ injury.

Update: There continues to be a sense of mystery behind this injury and I would not play Williams even if he is active. He missed practice on Thursday.

JuJu Smith-Schuster

JuJu is another interesting case to me. I’m going to assume that the medical staff knows something we don’t, as it was reported that he suffered a toe injury, but only X-rays were conducted. You see, X-rays are only used to rule out bone and joint injuries (fractures, dislocations, etc). That means if JuJu has “turf toe” (a sprain of the first toe) an X-ray would not catch it. To make matters worse, he was limited in practice on Wednesday. Keep your eyes peeled this week for JuJu’s injury status.

*It’s worth noting here that JuJu’s teammate, James Conner, was ill on Wednesday.

Update: The teammates are both expected to play on Sunday.

Baker Mayfield

The Titans pressured Mayfield all game long and at one point, sacked him for a safety. Mayfield stood up holding his wrist and simply looked uncomfortable the rest of the game. His X-rays are negative, but again, if it isn’t a bone or joint injury, we could be missing something. Add in the Jets’ (surprisingly) decent defense, and I might avoid Baker in DFS this week. He’s another guy to watch for as the week progresses.

Greg Olsen

At 34 years of age, Olsen is still trotting out there on Sundays despite his body starting to wear down. He’s been dealing with a back injury this week, and did not practice on Wednesday ahead of their TNF game against Tampa Bay. The flip side of these warning signs is that the veteran doesn’t need a walk-through practice and he told reporters on Wednesday that he’ll be ready to go. If he’s out, Ian Thomas is an extremely valuable option at tight end for showdown plays.

Update: Olsen is likely to play based on coach Ron Rivera’s comments all week. However, I’m staying away as there is potential for him to be on a snap count and due to risk of a back “flare up”.

Amari Cooper

Cooper sat out an entire month in the pre-season to nurse his plantar fasciitis, which is a chronic foot condition that can be very painful. The logic was to allow him to take it easy, rehab, and rest so it would not plague him all season like it did while still at Alabama. This was a very smart and prudent plan. Well, on Wednesday he told reporters that during Week One against the Giants, he had a “flare up” but it concluded that it is not an ongoing issue. Look, I’m not anybody to tell you to fade a receiver who just performed as well as Cooper did in that new-look offense, so I won’t. The best way to put Cooper’s situation into words is like this: with each passing week, Amari Cooper might become that yellow light that I’m just not comfortable racing through.

Patrick Mahomes

I wasn’t concerned whatsoever about Mahomes before Wednesday’s practice. He was seen during warm-ups clearly limited in lateral movements and favoring the ankle. I can’t imagine ever paying the premium for Mahomes in DFS, and even though I expect him to play, I’m looking for a better option.

Sam Darnold

Darnold was sick on Wednesday and did not practice, so watch his progression throughout the week. I’m always nervous about illnesses as hydration and fatigue are an issue.

Update: Darnold was ruled OUT for Monday’s game against the Browns. The Jets report that Darnold has mononucleosis, “the kissing disease” which is a member of a common family of viruses. This illness can cause inflammation of the spleen, which is the primary reason (aside from general fatigue) for his absence. Unfortunately for Darnold, this can cost him several weeks as the only treatment is to allow it to run it’s course.

More Updates

Le’Veon Bell: Along with the Darnold news, Adam Gase reported that Bell has a “sore shoulder” and he’ll receive an MRI. Although Gase says they are being “extra cautious” it’s a red flag to jump straight to an MRI, which will show the joint congruencey, ligaments, tendons, muscles, and overall integrity of the structures within the shoulder. I’m watching this injury closely as a shoulder injury could impact Bell’s ability to catch the football. If Bell is out, Ty Montgomery would be the cheap (and admittedly chalk) play of the week.

Update: Bell received a “precautionary” MRI that (unsurprisingly) found nothing significant. Sticking to my conservative style of play, I’m side stepping Bell in daily this week. The reasoning is that imaging reports and pain are terribly correlated and Bell can still be in quite a bit of pain despite his MRI. This could lead him to avoid contact and raising his arms to catch passes.

Derrius Guice: Guice will reportedly get a second opinion on his meniscus injury, which has a chance to turn into surgery. Although this development is more relevant in season long, it’s worth noting that Chris Thompson’s stock is on the rise this week. Use him in lineups before his price goes up.

KeKe Coutee: Coutee is making progress in practice and has the potential to play this week. I would wait a day or so longer before making a solid decision on him.

Sterling Shepard: Monitor his progress through concussion protocol. As of now, he has a good chance of playing

Update: Coutee was a full participant in practice Thursday. He could be a sneaky play this week.

Everybody Else

Lastly, for the less informed crowd, I want to provide a list of players who have been ruled out for Week Two (and beyond in most cases). I assume most people are aware of these players by now, but just to be sure: Tyreek Hill, Keke Coutee Tevin Coleman, Nick Foles, Derrius Guice, Devin Funchess, Quincy Enunwa, Hunter Henry.

Keep an eye out for an updated versions of this report on Saturday and Sunday before kickoff. Thank you for reading!

FOLLOW Win Daily DFS ON TWITTER @WinDailyDFS. PLEASE CHECK OUT EVERYTHING THAT Win Daily DFS HAS TO OFFER. NEW ARTICLES, STATISTICS AND DATA ARE BEING ADDED CONSTANTLY. ALSO, DO NOT FORGET TO LISTEN TO THE WIN DAILY PODCASTS HERE.

Featured image courtesy of Chris J. Nelson.

5 years ago 0 comment

NFL

The NFL DFS Week 2 GPP Picks Of Destiny

Gerald Colvin 5 years ago

written by Gerald Colvin

Week 2 in the NFL is all about finding the best opportunities for guaranteed production with high upside. Follow my stud and value GPP plays and lock in the NFL DFS Picks of Destiny.

David Jones won 100K on FanDuel!Read about it here!

Check back for updates closer to lineup lock on Sunday.

Quarterbacks:

Stud Quarterback: Lamar Jackson ($8,700 FD; $6,700 DK)

Lamar Jackson played almost perfectly in Week 1 vs the Miami Dolphins. I know that Miami defense looked particularly bad, but Jackson also looked fantastic throwing for 324 yards and five touchdowns. Can you imagine if he would have run for more than six yards?! Jackson faces the Arizona Cardinals this week, who just gave up 385 yards and three touchdowns to Matt Stafford at home. Jackson is going to be chalky, but like I said with Dalvin Cook last week, that doesn’t mean he is a bad play. He will be popular for a reason. He is in another great NFL DFS spot.

Patrick Mahomes: ($9,000 FD; $7,500 DK)

It feels like it is going to be another week where MVP Patrick Mahomes is going to be in a great matchup and low owned. People will fade him because there is a questionable tag by his name and because Tyreek Hill is out. Mahomes did just fine on his ankle last week and Hill basically missed the entire game. This was also vs an overhyped, yet good defense in Jacksonville. Mahomes will look to Kelce, Watkins and his pass catching backs a lot this week. The MVP will hit Kelce for at least one touchdown, and makes right for missing him in the end zone last week.

Mid Quarterback: Tom Brady ($7,800 FD; $6,400 DK)

The Patriots are going to win this game and Vegas thinks it’s going to be by a lot (-19). Tom Brady should tear them up the first three quarters before this game gets out of hand and he either gets pulled, or hands it off the entire fourth quarter. I like the NFL DFS price on Brady, and honestly don’t love a lot of other quarterbacks. I will have a Brady team.

Quarterback Punts: Josh Allen, Andy Dalton

Running Backs

Stud RB: Saquon Barkley ($9,200 FD; $9,200 DK)

It feels like a Saquon week and it has not been hard to fit him in my lineups. The Giants open at home vs the the Buffalo Bills and should absolutely feed Barkley. He looks elite again this year and gets a much easier matchup than the Cowboys were last week. He only got 11 carries, but a lot of that was game script. The Giants fell behind early and threw the ball more than they would have liked. Barkley did get six of those targets, though. Look for the Giants to control the tempo of this game more with getting Barkley going early and often. Lev Bell got his vs the Bills last week, Barkley will too.

Stud Pivot: Ezekiel Elliot

Mid RB: Mark Ingram ($7,500 FD; $6,000 DK)

Ingy impressed his first week as the new Baltimore Ravens featured back. He got 14 carries, 107 yards and two touchdowns before the Ravens pulled their starters. The Cardinals defense did fine against Kerryon Johnson last week, holding him to 49 yards, but I am not that high on Johnson to begin with. Ingram is a vet and never takes a play off. The Ravens trust him to move the chains and give him looks in he red zone. The Ravens defense will also be popular and it is a good idea to pair running backs with defenses. The more the ball turns over, the better the chances that the Ravens are winning, and therefore looking to the run game more.

Mid Pivot: Josh Jacobs

Wide Receiver

Stud WR: Sammy Watkins ($7,400 FD; $7,200 DK)

He is going to be popular, but man, has he earned it. If you want to fade him vs the Oakland Raiders based on ownership, I get it, but he is in another ideal spot this Sunday. He looked as good as ever in week one catching three touchdowns for 198 yards. There is no Tyreek Hill for a few weeks so Watkins and Kelce are both going to be putting up monster numbers. The Broncos were beating the Oakland Raiders by giving their receivers the opportunities to come up with big plays, whether that was getting them in a little space or throwing the deep ball. Both of these Watkins excels at and I have to get a few NFL DFS shares of him on Sunday.

Stud Pivots: Adam Thielen

Mid WR: Tyler Boyd ($6,300 FD; $6,500 DK)

I will be highly invested in Tyler Boyd this week. The San Fransisco 49ers head to Cincinnati this Sunday and to try and spoil the Bengals’ first home game. Boyd has shown us in the past what he can do as a number one receiver vs a poor defense. Once A.J. Green went down last year, Boyd had three games with over 100 yards and was targeted the most on the Bengals. Targeting the San Fran D should also be profitable in NFL DFS this year. They may have held the Tampa to under 200 yards through the air last week, however I put that more on Winston’s struggles. Boyd had 11 targets and eight receptions for 60 yards in Seattle last week. This week he will do much, much more.

WR Midrange Pivots: Will Fuller, Cooper Kupp, DK Metcalf

Value WR: Tyrell Williams ($5,900 FD; $4,400 DK)

Oakland should have to throw it a lot here vs the visiting Chiefs. Williams was targeted seven times in their win against the Broncos and emerged as the clear top option for the Raiders. The Chiefs are also struggling in the secondary, much like last year. The Jaguars backup QB was able to come in for the injured Nick Foles last week, and put up 275 yards with two touchdowns. Tyrell Williams at $5,900 on FanDuel feels underpriced for his role in the offense. When the Raiders get in the redzone he should be the first one targeted. He pulls his weight here and exceeds value.

WR Punt: Damion Willis

Tight End

Stud TE: Travis Kelce ($8,000 FD; $7,300 DK)

Lock. No Tyreek Hill gives the best tight end in the league a tremendous boost. He is getting in the end zone this week, at least once. Patrick Mahomes told reporters after last weeks win that he “owed Kelce lunch” for missing him in the end zone last week. He makes up for it this week vs the Oakland Raiders. Kelce may be the highest priced NFL DFS tight end this week, but he may also be the highest scoring.

Stud TE Pivot: Evan Engram

Value TE: T.J. Hockenson ($6,000 FD; $3,000 DK)

He got nine targets for 131 yards and a touchdown in his first NFL game. It is safe to say Stafford trusts him already. I don’t expect him to exceed what he did in Week 1 but at $6,000 on FanDuel he is a safe NFL DFS play with upside.

TE Pivot: Darren Waller

Defense

Ravens
Titans
Giants (punt)

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold Right Here! Projections, weather reports, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

5 years ago 0 comment

NFL

Week 1 DFS QB Picks: Cash, GPP and Value Targets

5 years ago

written by

Trust me, I didn’t get this role just because I once led my intramural football team to the playoffs as a 5’10, 270 quarterback at (then) Southwest Texas State (now Texas State University). Regardless, welcome to Week 1 DFS QB Picks, where we’ll break down the best plays via Cash Game, GPP and the tried and true punt.

All QBs are listed in order of preference/rank in each section

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, weather reports, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

Wanna catch my DFS musings on Twitter? Follow me here!

Listen to our DFS Podcast on Week One QB picks below.

Week 1 DFS QB Picks – Cash Game Passers

Deshaun Watson HOU @ NO

DK ($6,800), FD ($8,500)

Even with the addition of RB Carlos Hyde, this is the year the Texans climb out of the bottom third in passing attempts, and it begins on Monday night. Houston was 22nd in passing plays per game in 2018 (22nd overall), and a increase in passing plays — with a healthy Will Fuller V and the addition of Duke Johnson — means Watson can increase his 2.469 air yards (5th best in 2018).

I don’t see where the Saints greatly improved a defense that ranked 28th in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing quarterbacks last season. This feels almost like a layup here since Watson finished in the Top 10 in Fantasy scoring among QBs 10 times in 2018 that included a pair of number ones in Week 8 and Week 12. The supporting cast is addition by subtraction, so I’d think he’ll get improve upon his 3.32 Supporting Cast Efficiency (SCE), which ranked 17th. This is Monday Night Money to finish it off if you are playing the full 16-game slate.

Russell Wilson SEA vs. CIN

DK ($6,300), FD ($8,200)

The Bengals were 29th in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposing quarterbacks last season and will have a hard time keeping Wilson from taking shots downfield. Seattle was dead last in team passing plays (29.9) but Wilson made the most of his deep shots, finishing second in the league with a 46.7% completion rate and placed third in air yards per attempt at 5.1. That he topped all passers with a production premium of +28 was helped in part that he placed fifth with 31 money throws along with the fact Wilson had the best SCE (Supporting Cast Efficiency) in the league with 19.24.

Of course, his numbers will climb if he ran more than he did last season. I can’t promise when and where, but Wilson will score a rushing touchdown or two this season. That he was sixth among quarterbacks in rushing yards was one of 2018’s odd numbers, and while I don’t think he’ll return to the top, he’ll be a more efficient runner. Cincy was 27th in rushing yards per game allowed to quarterbacks, making Wilson a good play in cash games.

Drew Brees NO vs. HOU

DK ($6,400), FD ($8,000)

Father Time is trying to blitz Brees, but it’s not going to work Monday night. Brees trailed only Wilson when it came to SCE (14.06) while remaining ruthlessly efficient, topping the league in true completion percentage at a staggering 78.8% along with averaging .56 Fantasy points per dropback (2nd). Houston was 21st in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposing passers and that was with Jadeveon Clowney, who is now in Seattle. Like Wilson, he brings pain when going deep, as his 45.6% completion rate when dialing it up was third overall.

Houston is notorious when it comes to getting sucked into play-action, making Brees more valuable in cash game, as he completed 75% of his attempts when in play-action. Having the likes of Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara is exactly why Brees was fourth in money throws last season (33) and should be able to produce a money throw or two to make cash gamers feel at ease selecting him on the full 16-game slate. Both he and Watson will be popular Showdown style choices.

Featured Image of Carson Wentz via Keith Allison

Week 1 DFS QB Picks – GPP Passers

Carson Wentz, PHI vs. WAS

DK ($5,700), FD ($7,600)

Wentz is going to need a quarter or two to get some rust off considering he’s played as many preseason snaps as me or your wife. I couldn’t put him in cash games despite the temptation and the wealth of talent he has surrounding him. He was a mediocre 1.75 in SCE last season, but I’d venture adding Jordan Howard, Miles Sanders, DeSean Jackson and preseason sensation J.J. Arcega-Whiteside jumps him from his 18th place finish last season.

Wentz was 21st in air yards (1,745), understandable since the Eagles aren’t a bombs away team. The new faces should get his -1.4 production premium into the black and you have to keep in mind his 3.1 accuracy rating was second overall. Close but not quite a cash gamer, but a strong GPP play.

Patrick Mahomes, KC at JAX

DK ($7,200), FD ($8,700)

Don’t be the fool who’s so enamored with Mahomes that you’re convinced he’d shred the 1976 Steelers defense. Mahomes is not a cash gamer, but there will more than enough fools who’ll think otherwise. It’s not my job to tell grown people what to do, but…

Mahomes has flaws, and the Jaguars defense is capable of exploiting them, especially at home. Mahomes topped the league in production premium at +28, but he was just 14th in true completion percentage (71.7%) and red zone competion percentage (63.5%). This is not the week to envision him averaging 25.9 Fantasy points per game even though he’ll pick up where he left off in deep ball attempts (91). The potential Tyreek Hill vs. Jalen Ramsey matchup favors Ramsey; opponents tested him 28 times on go/out routes last season with only one touchdown to show for it. Something to keep in mind..

Aaron Rodgers, GB at CHI

DK ($6,500), FD ($8,200)

Good Number: The Packers were 10th in red zone attempts last season (73). He is basically your only choice with a Thursday night showdown entry. He may not be widely owned on the 16-game slate.

Bad Number: Forty-nine (yes, Virginia, 49) passers had a better red zone completion rate than Rodgers’ 61.5%.

Tom Brady, NE vs. PIT

DK ($6,300), FD ($7,600)

Good Number: Tommy Touchdown had the league’s best protection rate (90.1). That alone makes him a strong Week 1 DFS QB Picks play on the 16-game slate.

Bad Number: He’s really, really, really going to need a healthy and focused Josh Gordon to improve his receiver target separation of 1.39, 28th best overall.

Kirk Cousins, MIN vs. ATL

DK ($5,500), FD ($7,400)

Good Number: Bring your blitzes, damn you! Cousins welcomes it, finishing third with a 49.7% completion rate when facing pressure.

Bad Number: Vikings backs and receivers dropped 31 passes last season, fifth-highest in the league. In a way, you can’t fault Cousins on that, but still…

Phillip Rivers, LAC vs. IND

DK ($5,900), FD ($7,500)

Good Number: Rivers loves to pass the football on the left hand side, accounting for 1,619 yards and 14 touchdowns last season when throwing to the side of the southpaw.

Bad Number: His 13.57 SCE, which ranked third last season, takes a considerable hit without having Melvin Gordon available.

Baker Mayfield, CLE vs. TEN

DK ($6,400), FD ($7,900)

Good Number: Mayfield quietly finished fifth in production premium at +13.1.

Bad Number: Hopefully, the addition of Odell Beckham Jr. will lead to a reduction of the 32 dropped passes the Browns recorded last season.

Ben Roethlisberger, PIT at NE

DK ($6,300), FD ($7,600)

Good Number: Even without Antonio Brown, it’s hard to imagine the Steelers not leading the league in passing plays per game, as they did last season (44.6). That makes him a GPP play on the 16-game slate.

Bad Number: Big Ben lives dangerously, evidenced by the 32 danger plays he recorded last season, the fifth-highest total in the league.

Jared Goff, LAR @ CAR

DK ($6,200), FD ($7,800)

Good Number: Goff finished third with 2,617 air yards last season. Once Cooper Kupp gets into form, the Rams will remain a dangerous offense with quick-strike potential.

Bad Number: The Super Bowl showed how Goff fares when facing constant heat. He finished 25th in pressured completion percentage with 31.3%.

Matt Ryan, ATL @ MIN

DK ($6,100), FD ($8,000)

Good Number: No one topped Ryan in air yards last season as he racked up 2,876 yards.

Bad Number: Ryan’s 79.5% protection rate was only 25th overall. That has to be good news for those DFSers considering the Vikings defense.

Week 1 DFS QB Picks – Value and Punt Passers

Lamar Jackson, BAL vs. MIA

DK ($6,000), FD ($7,400)

Yes, the rushing yards will be there, especially in the red zone. That’s a good thing considering Jackson’s 37.5% completion rate inside the opponents’ 20-yard line was 54th overall. That is not enough to merit consideration as a Week 1 DFS QB Picks candidate.

Cam Newton, CAR vs. LAR

DK ($6,500), FD ($7,900)

No one mastered the play-action pass like Newton last season, as he completed 75.7% of his attempts when pulling defenses in. Helps to have Christian McCaffrey in the backfield.

Dak Prescott, DAL vs. NYG

DK ($5,900), FD ($6,700)

Ezekiel Elliott got P-A-I-D early Wednesday morning, which eliminates the prospect of Prescott getting the bulk of red zone touches. Elliott’s return also cripples the chances of Prescott being a potential top 12 quarterback, a plateau he reached just six times last season.

Sam Darnold, NYJ vs. BUF

DK ($6,000), FD ($7,500)

The presence of Le’Veon Bell alone assures Darnold’s SCE of -14.03 (31st) takes a rapid climb up the elevator. That, and a season’s worth of experience, will also help him avoid the number of danger plays (30) he put up as a rookie.

Derek Carr, OAK vs. DEN

DK ($5.400), FD ($6,600)

Carr’s true completion percentage of 75.6% was third-best last season, and the additions of Antonio Brown and rookie back Josh Jacobs will improve an already-solid 4.77 SCE.

5 years ago 0 comment

Newer Posts

Older Posts