Welcome to Friday’s edition of Aces and Bases, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.
It’s Friday and we have ourselves a nice sized 11-game slate of MLB DFS. We have ourselves a Jacob Degrom night. Our dilemma will be do we use him against a good Yankees lineup? We also have ourselves a Coors slate and that always brings into question whether or not to fade that game. One thing we’ll need to keep an eye on is the weather tonight. Things look pretty dicey in the northeast. The Mets/Braves should play, but anything can happen when it rains. The Pirates/Nationals game doesn’t have a remote chance of playing as it’s supposed to rain all day in DC.
Let’s dig and make some money!
MLB DFS Aces – Main
Jacob deGrom vs. New York Yankees
I miss him in the blue and orange. I talked myself into, “it’s ok, he’s always hurt.”. But man, when he’s on he’s the best pitcher of our generation and I don’t think it’s even close. deGrom proved in his last outing that getting pulled for the wrist issue was truly precautionary. In that outing, he went on to strikeout 11 A’s hitters in just 6 innings of work.
Over his last 26 innings, deGrom has an insane 42% k rate. He’ll face a Yankees team that is striking out 25% of the time against normal righties. That number will just go up against someone like deGrom. The Yankees will also be without Aaron Judge tonight, making this Yankees lineup that much weaker. deGrom for all the monies tonight.
Max Fried vs. New York Mets
As a Mets fan, it pains me to recommend a pitcher vs. them. That said, the offense just hasn’t been good of late. Although they scored 9 last night, they were coming off a 4-game stretch where the offense was laughable. They also haven’t been that good vs. lefties this season or really in the recent past. Fried has the chance to be one of the top pitchers on the slate tonight.
While he hasn’t been striking a ton of batters out, he’s been really good. His ERA on the year is a measly .6. He’s been doing this by limiting hard contact and flyballs. His hard-hit rate is just 12% and his flyball rate is less than 28%. If he can continue to limit the hard contact and fly balls, he’ll be able to have his way tonight vs. the Mets.
Other pitchers that I like tonight are Luis Castillo vs. and inconsistent Blue Jays lineup and Framber Valdez vs. Philly.
MLB DFS Stacks – Main
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Tyler Anderson
The season started out great for Tyler Anderson as he shut out the Oakland Athletics. Since then he’s gone on to give up 16 ER in his last 13 innings of work. Anderson’s numbers this season look a little wonky. He’s given up just a 25% hard-hit rate, but he’s also given up 7 barrels in the 20 innings of work. This means he’s making mistakes and the opponents are taking full advantage of it when he does. We’ll mostly want the righties here. They have a .442 wOBA vs. Anderson and a .294 ISO.
I’ll start my Brewers stack off with William Contreras and Brian Anderson. These 2 have been the Brewers’ most consistent hitters vs. lefties this year. Contreras has been by far the best too. On the year he has a .250 ISO and a .458 wOBA. Over the last week, he’s also done well with 5 hits in 15 AB and an OPS over 1.000.
While Willy Adames hasn’t don’t well vs. lefties this year, he lines up well against Anderson. Other than his fastball, Anderson’s main pitch vs. righties is his changeup. Adames has a wOBA over .400 vs. this pitch over the last few years. This is a great get-right spot for him. Other bats to look at here will be Mike Brosseau, Luke Voit, and Joey Wiemer.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Lucas Giolito
There was a time when you just wouldn’t want to stack against Lucas Giolito. Those days are long done. Gio is going to have his hands full tonight with arguably the best team in all of baseball. I like picking on Gio because he makes a ton of mental mistakes.
He’s already given up 10 barrels and 4 homers on the year. His 50% flyball rate is something that we want to attack. I’m going to give a slight lean to the lefties in this lineup tonight for the Rays.
The important bats I want here are going to be Wander Franco, Brandon Lowe, and Josh Lowe. Wander Franco is one of the most talented bats in all of baseball. This is a matchup that he should be able to take full advantage of tonight. He hasn’t homered in over a week, but he’s 9 for his last 29 and almost always puts the ball in play. Look for him to continue his strong play.
He’s not a lefty, but Yandy Diaz has been one of the best bats on this team of late. He’s 12 for his last 30 and has a team-leading 7 wRC over the last week. And last but not least, Randy Arozarena is always in play. The Rays have one of the highest implied run totals for anyone not in Coors tonight. They should smash like usual.
Oakland Athletics vs. Luis Cessa
The A’s pitching this season has been atrocious. Their bats however have not. They’ve surprisingly hung around in many games this season that they had no business hanging around in. Tonight they’ll get a tasty matchup vs. Luis Cessa. Cessa is coming off a good start vs. the Pirates, but in the 2 starts prior to that, he gave up a combined 16 ER.
He’s someone that has struggled with putting runners on. His WHIP on the year is a massive 2.34. That means he’s putting more than 2 runners in an inning. That’s something I want to attack. Both sides of the plate have a wOBA over .400 vs. him this season so I won’t be overly concerned with splits. That said, lefties have been getting more power so we don’t want to miss them.
The 2 main bats I’m looking at here are Brent Rooker and Jesus Aguilar. Rooker has been by far their best bat this season. Over the last week, he’s 6 for 22 with 3 bombs. He’s crushed righties this season with a .400 ISO and a .491 wOBA. His price is still just $3.4k and is a great value. Aguilar also had a solid week. Over his last 20 AB, he has 3 homers and 4 barrels. He’s seeing the ball well right now and should be able to do well vs. Cessa tonight.
Other bats to look at here are Jace Peterson and Conner Capel. Also, a complete game stack is very much in play here. Both sides should get in some offense tonight.
MLB DFS Summary
We’ll want to monitor the weather carefully tonight as there are a handful of games that could be delayed or PPD.
Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
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