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Nolan Arenado

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 8/21 (FanDuel Main Slate)

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s six-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 6:40PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

The biggest weather threat is in Baltimore for the Braves-Orioles, and while we can certainly target hitters for this game, I’m not interested in either pitching option. Pricing is really tight on FD, much unlike the free squares for Colorado on DK, and it feels like all the best hitters on the slate are $3,500 and up — but we have some ways to attack this in GPPs and give ourselves a great shot at spiking a top finish.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Eduardo Rodriguez ($9,800)

It may seem crazy to say given his dynamic range of outcomes, but Rodriguez facing the strikeout-prone Rangers is the clear ace of the slate, especially with how much weight FD gives Ks and just how iffy the next two options (Joe Musgrove and Aaron Nola) have been over their past few starts. I love a good risk-reward pick as much as the next guy, but we just haven’t seen enough from the starting pitchers in the PHI-SD game to warrant using them at those prices. Rodriguez, though, gets a great spot against a Rangers team that is dead last in wOBA (.284) vs. LHP. He has 10K upside in this matchup and should get the requisite run support to notch a W. The only problem in rostering him comes when it’s time to stack up some hitters, but we do have some great value options on the Cardinals (more on that later).

Best GPP Value: J.A. Happ ($8,100)

The crafty veteran lefty is definitely someone that we could have looked to attack with right-handed mashers earlier in the season, but he’s completely turned around his season this August. Since he was traded to St. Louis, Happ’s allowed just three runs over 16.2 innings (1.62 ERA) with an 11:5 K:BB in his three outings. He’s sporting a dynamite .251 wOBA against opposing hitters in that stretch, and there’s nobody on this Pirates lineup that really scares me. He’s looking at around 25-30 as a floor with 45+ upside at a price point where nobody else has that kind of ceiling. He’s worth the investment and leaves $3,300+ per hitter — which helps us get the guys we need.

The other GPP Play: Wade Miley ($8,800)

Nobody likes playing soft-tossing Wade Miley, but he’s probably going to be relatively popular on this slate because he draws the Marlins, a lineup that’s chock full of some guys that aren’t necessarily household names. In fact, his popularity could dictate a few GPP stacks of the Marlins hitters just because it’ll be easy to get a portion of our builds way ahead of the projected ownership for guys like Lewis Brinson, Jesus Aguilar and Brian Anderson. But in my GPP builds where I’m not stacking Marlins, he’s a viable value option. I just wouldn’t exceed 20-25% with him if we’re doing 10+ lineups. He’s another guy with a 25-30 point floor and 45+ upside, but like I said — he’ll be pretty chalky, and if we’re looking for leverage we’re looking elsewhere.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Boston Red Sox

With all due respect to the game in Coors and the Braves against Matt Harvey in a game that’s likely to get pretty wet, my top stack is going to be the Red Sox against Jordan Lyles, who’s been dreadful. Lyles sports a .355 wOBA, .207 ISO, 40+% hard contact rate, 1.7 HR/9, a miniscule 16% K rate, a hilariously high 11% BB rate and a 49% fly ball rate. The Sox are going to mash, and getting exposure to their 1-7 hitters is a priority. The top four among them would be J.D. Martinez ($4,000), Rafael Devers ($4,200), Xander Bogaerts ($4,100) and Hunter Renfroe ($3,600) — who’s having a career year and has greatly improved his production vs. RHP. I also like leadoff man Kike Hernandez ($3,600), Kyle Schwarber ($3,700) and Alex Verdugo ($3,000) and, if he gets the start, a dirt-cheap Travis Shaw ($2,300). I’ll be mixing and matching Sox builds in just about all of my GPP entries, except for the random couple where I get some Coors exposure — which I don’t think is a huge priority on this slate based on FD’s inflated pricing. There’s plenty of value in that Colorado lineup on DK, but it’s cost prohibitive on FD where we need to save a few bucks.

GPP Value Stack: St. Louis Cardinals

The Cards are the clear value play that allows us to fit Rodriguez and/or the necessary Red Sox bats. Tommy Edman ($3,000), Tyler O’Neill ($3,200), Paul Goldschmidt ($3,800) and Nolan Arenado ($4,300) are the best four bats, but we might not be able to get Goldy and Arenado in there because of their hefty prices — which is fine in GPPs since we have more options in Paul DeJong ($2,700) and Harrison Bader ($2,900). Yadier Molina is really inexpensive at $2,500, and he’s locked into that No. 5 spot right in the middle of all the action.

Contrarian GPP Stack: Miami Marlins

We’ll start with the guys I mentioned earlier — Aguilar ($2,900), Brinson ($2,800) and Anderson ($2,900) and throw in Miguel Rojas ($2,800) for good measure. Wade Miley limits hard contact, but this is a bunch that could fluster him by just getting the ball in play, and relying on the “bloop and a blast” method. Again — this is a contrarian mini-stack not to be used in more than 20-25% of your GPP builds if you’re multi-entering. Jazz Chisholm, Jr. ($3,200) and Jesus Sanchez ($2,300) are also options.

Make sure to keep an eye on the starters as lineups are released. Good luck tonight, and please utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

3 years ago 0 comments

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 7/3 (FanDuel Main Slate)

Antonio D'Arcangelis 3 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s seven-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:15PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

Weather is not a huge issue tonight (as much as it is for the day games), so let’s dive right in!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Clayton Kershaw ($11,000)

Kershaw is the only top MLB DFS arm we should really consider tonight, since there’s a $2,500 drop off to the next available SP (LAA RHP Alex Cobb at $8,500 — someone we can consider as a GPP pivot). Adam Strangis explains in the 7/3 Starting Rotation article why anchoring cash game lineups to Kershaw makes a lot of sense, and we can probably use the same rationale for single-entry GPP. Kershaw’s K rate is high enough that the elevated pricing on FD isn’t a dealbreaker, and the Nationals do have some K potential in their lineup.

Best GPP Value: Jake Odorizzi ($7,200)

The Indians aren’t pushovers, but Odorizzi has been pretty effective this season with and xFIP under 4.00 and a K rate over a batter an inning. Cleveland is in the bottom half of the league in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ and they rank just 21st against the fastball — Odorizzi’s number one pitch in both effectiveness and usage. He’s a slight favorite, has averaged over 30 FD per outing over his last four starts, and his price allows us to roster basically any hitters we want in the high total games in Coors Field and/or Oakland.

Contrarian GPP Play: Alex Cobb ($8,500)

He’s a contrarian play because the price is still a little higher than we’d like to play on a slate where Odorizzi is much cheaper, but his upside is just as high. Cobb sports a 2.79 xFIP this season and the Orioles aren’t especially great at knocking around RHPs. There’s risk here, as we know this crew in Baltimore can manufacture a few runs with that potent top 4 — but if Cobb can get through that group a couple times without major incident, he’s got a great shot at eclipsing his 30 point FD projections and total of about 30 FD points. 40-45 FD points (helped by a QS and win) isn’t unrealistic,

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: St. Louis Cardinals vs. COL LHP Kyle Freeland

This lineup is filled with lefty mashers, and it’s a group that really came alive in extra innings last night — something I believe they’ll carry over into tonight’s matchup. You really can’t go wrong with Nolan Arenado ($4,400), Paul Goldschmidt ($4,300), Tyler O’Neill ($4,000 – DTD, finger) and Harrison Bader ($3,200) as your power four, with Tommy Edman ($3,700) Dylan Carlson ($3,400), Yadier Molina ($3,500) and Paul DeJong ($3,800) as your main alternates. The Rockies are all in play as well — especially Trevor Story ($4,400) , C.J. Cron ($3,900) and a cheap Yonathan Daza ($3,100 — though it will be hard to stack the entire game.

Value Stack: San Francisco Giants vs. ARI RHP Jacob Faria

The Giants were my value stack last night against the A’s, and while they did score 6 runs, they didn’t break the slate. Once again, they have enormous upside tonight with these hitters against “Journeyman Jake” Faria and his hittable ensemble of pitches: LaMonte Wade ($2,900), Mike Yastrzemski ($3,200), Buster Posey ($3,100) Alex Dickerson ($2,500), Brandon Crawford ($3,000). There are some other bats to be considered (Steven Duggar at $2,800 and a very cheap Donovan Solano at $2,300), but I’m most interested in the above four for MLB DFS.

Contrarian Stack: Oakland Athletics vs. BOS RHP Garrett Richards

There’s a great deal of leverage in stacking this entire game and fading Coors hitters, but let’s start with the Athletics bats we like: Tony Kemp ($2,800), Matt Olson ($3,700), Jed Lowrie ($3,300) and Matt Chapman ($3,600). For Boston, the top hitters are J.D. Martinez ($4,200), Kike Hernandez ($3,600), Xander Bogaerts ($3,700) and Hunter Renfroe ($3,500). Again — both sides are fine here, but the Athletics will be severely under-owned against a bad RHP, and that’s a spot I really like considering their above-average 104 wRC+ and .317 wOBA. The Sox do well against LHP (.331 wOBA, 105 wRC+), but they’re priced a little higher.

Good luck tonight, and make sure you utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

3 years ago 0 comments

MLB Daily Fantasy Sports

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 5/29 (FanDuel Main Slate)

Antonio D'Arcangelis 3 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s four-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

It’s another busy day for weather, but initial forecasts project only one game on the main slate that could be impacted: ATL @NYM — which they should be able to get in with a late start and under a light, steady rain.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Julio Urias ($11,500)

Ownership is going to be heavily weighted toward Urias, who’s the obvious choice in cash games. He’s got the most upside of any pitcher on the slate and easily boasts the highest floor because of the matchup. With four 50+ FD point performances among his last seven starts, Urias is coming into his own as a reliable fantasy starter after being brought slowly along by the Dodgers in his first few seasons in the big leagues. The Giants have a team K% of 26.2% — seventh highest in MLB — and the Dodgers are the biggest favorites in this four-game slate. Don’t overthink this one. Urias should be a lock for your cash games and in the majority of your GPP lineups.

Best GPP Value: Ian Anderson ($9,000)

For whatever reason, Ian Anderson’s weekly start for Atlanta almost always lands on a Saturday night, which is just fine with me considering he’s my favorite young pitcher in baseball for selfish reasons: he’s from about a half-hour away in upstate New York’s Capital Region, and is probably the best pitcher to some out of this area in decades. Pitching in a steady rain should be a familiar thing for a guy from just north of Albany, NY. The talented hurler didn’t issue a walk or accumulated any earned runs in his last start en route to 46 FanDuel points — a perfectly viable number given the difficulty this slate presents for pitching options. While the Mets don’t strike out at a particularly high rate, they do have one of the league’s most feeble team wOBA marks — just .291. Compare that to what the Braves lineup offers — a /327 team wOBA — and you’ve got a recipe for another victory and 35-45 FD points.

Contrarian GPP Value: Mike Foltynewicz ($7,100)

This makes two SP options on tonight’s slate with WinDaily narratives. While I don’t know my area’s local product (Anderson) personally, Nick Bretwisch is buddies with Mike Foltynewicz (it’s a Minooka, Illinois thing) and he’s continually come through with the best spots to deploy Folty in our MLB DFS builds. On FanDuel tonight, he’s more of a large-field GPP contrarian play, since his K totals are a little lower this season. The silver lining, however, is in the opponent’s propensity to strike out. The Mariners have a team K% of 26.2% — sixth highest in baseball this season — and they sport the second-lowest team wOBA (.285) against RHP. If you’re hell-bent on jamming in the most expensive bats on the slate and/or want to get a little crazy at SP, Folty has some modest upside vs,. SEA.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: St. Louis Cardinals vs. ARI RHP Seth Frankoff

Only two teams in yesterday’s slate scored more runs than the Cards, who beat the D-Backs 8-6 and helped secure a lot of green screens for folks that trusted they’d easily handle LHP Madison Bumgarner. Today they face a right-hander, but it’s a guy with considerably less major-league experience in Frankoff, who has just 13.1 IP under his belt in MLB. Frankoff is a 32-year-old journeyman who spent some time in Korea and is with his fifth major-league organization — a sign he’s not missing a whole lot of bats at this level. The Cards should be able to take advantage of his 6.46 FIP with their usual array of potent bats, including Paul Goldschmidt ($3,100), Nolan Arenado ($3,600), Dylan Carlson (underpriced at just $2,200) and Tyler O’Neill ($3,000) — who went deep last night and boasts a .370 wOBA and nine HR vs. RHP over his last 88 big league AB. I also like switch-hitting leadoff hitter Tommy Edman ($2,700) and there’s also an opportunity to do a full game stack here and run back some bats from Arizona: Josh Rojas ($2,300), Carson Kelly ($3,200), Ketel Marte ($3,300), David Peralta ($2,500), Pavin Smith ($2,600) and Eduardo Escobar ($2,700) are all woefully mispriced for this slate.

Value Stack: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. SFG RHP Logan Webb

It’s bizarre to see the Dodgers listed as a value stack, but after you get past the high-priced bats of Mookie Betts ($3,900) and Max Muncy ($3,600), there’s a couple lefty hitters we can target for their value (Gavin Lux at $2,600 and upside-laden Matt Beaty at just $2,100) along with Justin Turner ($2,900), Chris Turner ($3,100) and Will Smith ($2,900). The Dodgers projected team run total is actually right around what the D-Backs are expected, so I’ll probably make a balance four-man stacks of each team (and some 2 LAD +2 ARI builds) against my four-man Cards stacks.

Contrarian Stack: Texas Rangers vs. SEA RHP Justin Dunn

Tonight might be a really good night to experiment with low-stakes multi-entry GPP and leaving some money on the table, which means we can use some combination of Rangers 1-5 hitters in a few stacks with Dunn on the mound for Seattle. Dunn’s 3.40 ERA belies an xFIP of 5.76 — good news for guys like Willie Calhoun ($3,000), Nate Lowe ($2,900), Adolis Garcia ($4,300) and Joey Gallo ($3,200). Brock Holt ($2,500) has excellent numbers vs. RHP as well. The price tag and RHP vs. RHB matchup for Garcia might scare some folks away, but he makes for a great one-off even if you’re not stacking the Rangers, with a .400 wOBA, a .330 ISO and nine HR in less than 100 AB vs. RHP. Whatever you plan on doing, I’d include some of these Rangers bats in my GPP builds at what could be relatively low ownership even on a slate this small.

Good luck, and make sure you utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

3 years ago 0 comments

MLB

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases for Sunday Funday – 04/04/2021

Jared Levitt 4 years ago

written by Jared Levitt

Welcome to the first Sunday of the 2021 baseball season. For those celebrating Easter, Happy Easter! For those celebrating Passover, we made it!

The focus today will be on Fanduel’s main slate which cuts off right before the Dodgers/Rockies game. So yes, we have a non Coors main slate to look forward to.

Today’s slate is void of aces. In looking at pitching, there’s no definitive path to success. There are a couple of pitchers that are ‘pretty good’, but not entirely safe. Then there are pitchers that are going to be high risk/high reward. I’m going high risk/high reward today. I’m feeling frisky!

Let’s dig in to today’s slate!

MLB DFS: The ‘Aces’

The first pitcher I’m looking at today comes with some risk. Ian Anderson ($9k) faces off against a tough Phillies lineup. Anderson pitched to a 1.95 ERA last year which was a run and a half better than his xFIP. Although a 3.45 xFIP is good, you can’t expect to Anderson to perform as well as he did last year. He did have a k/9 of 11.41, which of all the pitchers going today would rank numero uno. 3 factors have me leaning towards Anderson. a 52.5% GB rate, a 27.5% FB rate, and a 25.90% hard hit rate last year. Those numbers combined can help and did help him limit damage. Not the safest play, but I am a fan.

The next pitcher I’m looking at is Michael Pineda ($7.3K). You know exactly what you’re getting with Pineda at this point in his career. Someone that’s going to limit damage, but not rack up a bunch of k’s. Pineda only threw 26 innings last year. In that short sample he kept hitters to a 23.2% hard hit rate and he did it by getting them to chase with a chase rate of 39%. He had a k rate 8.44/9 so there’s limited upside. But on a day where there just isn’t much in the way of pitching, sometimes you have to play it safe. This Brewers lineup is not the same lineup it was a couple of years ago. After Yelich, there just isn’t much.

The final pitcher I’m going to recommend is Tarik Skubal ($6k). Here’s my high risk/high reward play. Last season he pitched to a 10.41 k/9. He did this by throwing gas last year. This off-season he added some new pitches to his repertoire. He is a fly ball pitcher so be a little cautious. He had a 54% fb rate last year. With that being said though, the Indians lineup is watered down. You have Ramirez and then not much.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Of the 8 games in today’s main slate, 3 have an implied total greater than 5. One of those teams I’m going to eliminate from my thought process as I just don’t see the Red Sox being able to do that much damage. Their lineup just isn’t very good and we have seen what Means and Harvey did to them the last couple of days. This could very well bight me as Bruce Zimmermann was brutal last year. But until the Red Sox can prove they can hit, I’m staying clear.

The first team I’m looking to stack today are the Royals. Jordan Lyles was horrific last year. He pitched to a 5.92 xFIP and had a swinging strike rate of 6.7%. He doesn’t miss many bats. I’m going 1-3 here, maybe 1-5 depending on how the lineup shakes out today. Merrifield ($4k), Benintendi ($2.9k), and Santana ($3.3k). Do keep an eye on the lineup though as Benintendi did leave the game early yesterday.

The next spot is the good ole Bronx. The Blue Jays are giving TJ Zeuch a spot start today. Although he is predominantly a ground ball pitcher, he doesn’t miss many at bats. He’s got low k stuff. Not missing many at bats is normally a recipe for disaster against a tough lineup like the Yankees. Judge ($4k), Hicks ($3.2K), Stanton ($3.8K), and Torres ($3.8k) is where I’m leaning with this stack.

My final stack recommendation is the Cardinals. Jeff Hoffman was bad last year. He pitched to a 5.39 xFIP. He had a FB rate of almost 39%. And a hard hit rate of almost 43%. Feel confident in rolling with Arenado ($3.8k) and Goldschmidt ($4k). Both have career woba’s of over .368 against right handed pitching. Cardinals fans are going to have a great summer with these 2.

MLB DFS Sunday Funday Summary

Keep an eye on Wrigley. There’s currently no line on the game and that could be due to the winds. If it’s blowing out, load em up. If it’s blowing in, consider looking towards Zach Davies as one of your pitchers.

While I think every slate is fun, this slate has the makings of a super fun slate. This is a slate where offense will reign supreme.

Good luck and hope to see you at the top of the leaderboards!

4 years ago 0 comments

MLB Daily Fantasy Sports

9/17 DFS Hitting Picks and Stacks: Mets Marauding Melville

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

We’ve got a loaded 14-game 7:05 EST main slate for MLB 9/17 DFS – one that we’ve got some high game totals for, including another big-time stack at Coors. The lineups get unstable toward the end of the year, but that just gives us more opportunities to embrace the variance and make it fun on this enormous slate.

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9/17 DFS Hitting Stacks of the Day

NewYork Mets at Tim Melville (NYM at COL)

The Mets are expensive but have the highest implied total on the slate. Last night they scored just four runs in Coors but on Tuesday get to face Melville, who’s been torched in his three home starts (.516 xwOBA, 9.00 ERA, 6.31 xFIP). I’ll be applying a liberal smattering of Mets hitters in most of my lineups, with most of my exposure coming with the first five hitters: Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil, Michael Conforto, Robinson Cano and Pete Alonso. Wilson Ramos is a very affordable $2,900 on FD as well, where he can be used in one of two spots.

Boston Red Sox vs. Logan Webb (BOS vs. SF)

The Sox may be missing Mookie Betts (foot) but they’re still a powerful bunch of bats in a hitter’s park. Logan Webb has been tuned up for a .400 xwOBA vs. RHP) during his short time in the Majors, and he’s not going to like the ballpark shift from Oracle. The usual suspects (Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts, J.D. Martinez and Andrew Benintendi) are all $5,000 or under on DK, and Mitch Moreland is just $4,200.

Toronto Blue Jays at Dylan Bundy/Chandler Shepherd

The Blue Jays are a sneaky stack in a slate with Coors Field on the docket, and they’ll be playing in Baltimore, where the homers fly out and the Orioles pitching staff has reached a new nadir in allowing the long ball. I’m stacking the 1-5 with occasional shares of Randal Grichuk ($4,300 DK) and Billy McKinney ($3,300 DK).

Cleveland Indians vs. John Schreiber/Spencer Turnbull (CLE vs.DET)

The Indians are underpriced for the matchup on this 9/17 DFS slate, whether it’s against Schreiber (the possible opener) or Turnbull, who’s really struggled this season (3-15 in 27 starts with a 4.77 ERA and 1.48 WHIP). I’m leaning toward mini-stacks considering there are so many other great matchups on this slate, but feel free to grab shares of the 1-5 hitters and get some exposure to the value bats (Franmil Reyes, Mike Freeman and Jordan Luplow, if he’s in the lineup).

9/17 DFS Hitting Stacks to Consider

Atlanta Braves at Vince Velazquez (It’s tough to fadeFreeman and Co. in a hitter’s park)

Miami Marlins at LHP Alex Young (all the righties –including my guy Starlin Castro)

Colorado Rockies vs. Marcus Stroman (The contrarian side ofCoors against a decent RHP)

9/17 DFS Hitting Catcher

J.T. Realmuto, PHI at ATL

DK ($4,600) FD ($3,900)

I’m a huge fan of Realmuto, who sports a .443 xwOBA and .227 ISO against LHPs over the past two seasons. It’s a one-off play that should command low ownership and provide a decent floor – as well as immense upside in GPPs.

9/17 DFS Hitting First Baseman

Rowdy Tellez, TOR at BAL

DK ($3,900) FD ($2,600)

Tellez has four homers in his last 11 games, crushes right-handedpitching (.453 xwOBA, .245 ISO since 2018), and bats fourth between Lourdes Gurrieland Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. Tellez is my double-dinger call of the day, and he’snot really thrown off by lefty relievers, either (.430 xwOBA against LHPs since2018).

9/17 DFS Hitting Second Baseman

Cavan Biggio, TOR at BAL

DK ($4,500) FD ($3,700)

Biggio is another Jays bat I want exposure to in Camden Yards, where he’s already got three homers in five career games and a 168 OPS+ that screams GPP play. As part of stack or simply a value bat at a reasonable price, Biggio makes a solid play for his speed and power.

9/17 DFS Hitting Third Baseman

Matt Chapman, OAK vs. KC

DK ($4,200) FD ($3,600)

Chapman and his surging power numbers (4 HRs in September so far) couldbe overlooked on this slate, and if you’re wary of spending more than $5K for J.D.Davis but still want to get some other Coors bats in, he could be a big help.All these games matter for the A’s, and Chapman (.423 xwOBA and .250 ISO vs.RHPs since 2018) is the heart and soul of their lineup along with Matt Olsonand Marcus Semien, the other two Oakland bats with 30+ homers this year.

9/17 DFS Hitting Shortstop

Francisco Lindor, CLE vs. DET

DK ($4,800) FD ($4,000)

Lindor is my favorite shortstop of this slate. He gets lotsof ABs and benefits from a circular Indians lineup that has some decent hittersat the bottom of the order – giving him some run-creating opportunities alongwith table-setting ability. His price is cheaper than Xander Bogaerts, Trevor Storyand Bo Bichette on DK (with just as much GPP upside) and he’s playable in allformats at home (where he owns a .386 wOBA and .403 xwOBA sine 2018) against theTigers.

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9/17 DFS Hitting Outfielders

J.D. Martinez, BOS vs. SF

DK ($4,000) FD ($3,200)

Idiscussed the Red Sox stack up top, but if there’s one bat from Boston I’d likein this matchup, it’s J.D. His .506 xwOBA vs. RHPs since 2018 (over a hugesample of 998 plate appearances) means he can hit all types of pitching (it’s apreposterous .560 vs. LHPs) and he’s still surrounded by Bogaerts andBenintendi, who both hit RHPs well. I’m banking on a three-run homer for the RedSox OF/DH in hitter-friendly Fenway against young Logan Webb (.400 xwOBA vs. RHP).

Oscar Mercado, CLE vs. DET

DK ($4,100) FD ($3,000)

Thehome numbers for Mercado are impressive (.290/.340/.477) and his bat has beenshowing some life again (10 hits in his last 26 AB). You’re getting thetalented young OF at a discount on both sites, and he’s a great piece to havein Indians mini stacks along with Lindor and Carlos Santana.

Garrett Hampson, COL vs. NYM

DK ($3,500) FD ($3,200)

Hampson is red-hot at the plate and is dirt cheap onDK. He’s played much better since getting more regular time, starting in theRockies’ last five straight and games and going 11-for-22 over that stretch(counting Monday night). He’s easy to overlook in the lineup as the No. 7 hitterand makes plenty of sense in both cash games and GPPs.

Additional options:

C:Roberto Perez ($3,600 DK, $2,900FD), Reese McGuire ($3,900 DK, $2,800 FD)

1B: Pete Alonso ($5,600 DK, $4,300 FD), Carlos Santana($4,300 DK, $3,900 FD)

2B: Robinson Cano ($4,700 DK, $3,600 FD), Jonathan Villar($4,700 DK, $3,800 FD)

3B: Vladimir Guerrero Jr, ($3,900 DK, $2,900 FD), EugenioSuarez ($4,500 DK, $3,900 FD)

SS: Bo Bichette ($5,400 DK, $3,900 FD), Xander Bogaerts ($5,000DK, 3,800 FD)

OF: Austin Meadows ($5,600 DK, $4,400 FD), Yordan Alvarez ($5,200DK, $4,100 FD), Brandon Nimmo ($4,500 DK, $3,900 FD), Khris Davis ($3,800 DK,$3,200 FD), Michael Brantley ($4,000 DK, $3,800 FD), Matt Joyce ($4,100 DK, $2,400FD)

5 years ago 0 comments

MLB Daily Fantasy Sports

9/16 DFS Hitting Picks and Stacks: Rockie Mountain High

Cora Baylis 5 years ago

written by Cora Baylis

After another successful weekend, we’re back at it with more hitting picks for Monday’s slate. We only have seven games on this small schedule, though, and that should cause chaos with a Coors Field game overshadowing everything. With that in mind, let’s get into our 9/16 DFS Hitting stacks and hitting picks.

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9/16 DFS Hitting Stacks of the Day

Colorado Rockies vs. Steven Matz

While Matz is a pretty good pitcher, this start in Colorado spells disaster. The reason for that is because he has to pitch in Coors Field, the most hitter-friendly ballpark in baseball. The Rockies are regularly looking at implied run totals in the 6-7 range and that’s just the case here. What makes it even worse is the fact that Matz has been struggling mightily on the road this season. In fact, the southpaw has a 6.08 ERA and 1.56 WHIP outside of Citi Field, regularly getting blown up.

New York Mets vs. Antonio Senzatela

On the other end of the ball, we have to like the Mets too. They also have an implied run total north of six and it’s beneficial for anyone to hit in this ballpark. The ballpark boost paired with this matchup is a recipe for success, with Senzatela pitching to a 6.87 ERA and 1.75 WHIP this season. This is a better offense than many people may think too, with N.Y. ranked 10^th in both wOBA and xwOBA.

Oakland A’s vs. Glenn Sparkman

The Athletics have quietly been one of the best offenses in baseball this season, ranking seventh in wOBA and fifth in xwOBA. Those are terrific numbers despite hitting in a pitcher-friendly park, as they should have no problem continuing their success against a guy like Sparkman. The Kansas City righty is currently pitching to a 5.94 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. That’s why Oakland enters this matchup as a –315 favorite with the A’s projected for nearly six runs.

9/16 DFS Hitting Catcher

Yasmani Grandal, MIL vs. SD

DK ($4,500) FD ($3,200)

Grandal is always one of the first catchers that I consider for this article. Any guy who sits Top-5 at the position in OBP and OPS is definitely worth considering, particularly in such a good matchup. The Padres are sending out the oft-injured Garrett Richards for his first start of the season and that’s terrible news in a ballpark like this. The guy he should really worry about is Grandal, with the backstop generating a .479 OPS and .823 OPS against righties dating back to 2017. Those are actually lower than his season-long averages, with Grandal posting a .385 OBP and .871 OPS in nearly 500 at-bats this year.

9/16 DFS Hitting First Baseman

Matt Olson, OAK vs. KC

DK ($5,200) FD ($3,700)

Olson is my favorite piece to this Oakland stack, as he’s one of the only guys who actually get the platoon advantage in his favor. So far this season, Olson has a .291 AVG, .385 OBP, .589 SLG and .974 OPS against right-handed pitching. That elite power is backed up by a .291 ISO for the season, which is simply one of the best power strokes in the game. He happens to be scorching right now too, hitting five homers over his last six games.

9/16 DFS Hitting Second Baseman

Luiz Arraez, MIN vs. CWS

DK ($4,000) FD ($2,600)

It really doesn’t make any sense why this Arraez price remains so low. This dude has done nothing but rake since getting called up, which is evident by his .345 AVG and .861 OPS. He’s actually been even better against right-handers, amassing a .368 AVG, .502 SLG and .917 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor. That’s bad news for Reynaldo Lopez and his 5.35 ERA and 1.45 WHIP.

9/16 DFS Hitting Third Baseman

Nolan Arenado, COL vs. NYM

DK ($5,500) FD ($4,700)

The Rockies bats are coming in hot and it’s easy to see why when you see that they have an implied run total approaching seven. Arenado is certainly a big part of that, as he’s fantastic at home and absolutely brilliant against left-handed pitching. In fact, Arenado has a .355 AVG, .663 SLG and 1.079 OPS at home this season and a .367 AVG, .448 OBP, .734 SLG and 1.182 OPS against lefties dating back to 2017.

9/16 DFS Hitting Shortstop

Trevor Story, COL vs. NYM

DK ($5,500) FD ($4,500)

The Arenado splits are truly amazing and it’s incredible just how close he and Story are in terms of success against lefties at home. Dating back to 2017. Story has a .315 AVG, .379 OBP, .625 SLG and 1.004 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor. His numbers at home are just as good, accruing a .333 AVG, .401 OBP, .670 SLG and 1.071 OPS at Coors Field so far this year. That’s why these two are the best two-man stack of the day, particularly against a guy who struggles so badly on the road.

9/16 DFS Hitting Outfielders

Michael Conforto, NYM at COL

DK ($5,400) FD ($3,900)

We have to like the other team hitting in Coors Field, as any good hitter is in play at Coors. Conforto is more than that and he should have success against a guy with a 6.87 ERA and 1.75 WHIP. What it does is give Conforto the advantage from the left side, with the outfielder totaling a .383 OBP, .543 SLG and .926 OPS against right-handers this year.

Khris Davis, OAK vs. KC

DK ($3,700) FD ($3,200)

Don’t look now but Davis is starting to find the power stroke that has allowed him to lead the league in dingers dating back to 2016. That power potential is truly amazing, as Davis has an ISO in the .250-range in that four-year span. Getting to face someone like Sparkman is a good way to keep mashing baseballs and he should be right in the heart of this potent lineup. Over his last seven games. Davis has collected three homers and 10 RBI en route to a .411 OBP, .731 SLG and 1.145 OPS.

Ian Desmond, COL vs. NYM

DK ($4,100) FD ($3,300)

Desmond is the final piece to our Rockies stack and he’s really the only one who’s a great value. Like the rest of these righties, he’s made minced meat of lefties all season long. In fact, Desmond has a .291 AVG, .350 OBP, .588 SLG and .938 OPS against southpaws so far this season. His home splits are good too, with Desmond amassing a .291 AVG, .354 OBP, .535 SLG and .890 OPS at Coors Field so far this year.

5 years ago 0 comments

MLB

8/30 DFS Hitting Picks and Stacks: Bombs Over the Bronx

5 years ago

written by

For the record, I go into Texas high school football mode tonight, but since Friday Night Lights doesn’t make me (or you) copious amounts of the long green, then the 8/30 DFS Hitting Picks is a nice consolation.

All but one game is played in the lights and there’s plenty of nifty stack plays awaiting.

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8/30 DFS Hitting Picks – Catcher

Jorge Alfaro, MIA at WAS

DK ($3,700), FD ($2,700)

Sometime in the past week, Alfaro tapped into his inner Joe Mauer, circa 2009. As a result, he’s ripped off five straight multi-hit games and has averaged better than 27 FanDuel points in that span. Alfaro homered in three straight games this week, helping to elevate his HR/BB% to 28% along with a fast-rising 43.8% line drive rate.

With an OPS over 1.100 over the past two weeks, I think Alfaro continues his hitting tear on the road against Nats hurler Anibal Sanchez, who has pitched well of late but has struggled when his line drive rate (24%) looks a lot less like his 2018 total (18%).

8/30 DFS Hitting Picks – First Baseman

Mark Canha, OAK at NYY

DK ($5,300), FD ($3,400)

This won’t be the last time this game is mentioned. Canha has been a bargain banger, recording hits in 10 of his last 11 with four homers and 12 RBI. He’s been a blessing for FanDuel users, having recorded four games of at least 24.70 points during the same span. Canha walks at a 13.3% rate, somewhat understandable considering the amount of lumber in the A’s offense. His .271 Isolated Power is almost even with his .277 batting average.

A weekend at Yankee Stadium awaits Canha, who has a 23.2% HR/FB% and 42.7% fly ball rate and faces CC Sabathia. The Yankees starter has allowed right-handed hitters to tag him for 19 homers and a .287/.343/.543 (.892 OPS). Indeed, a solid 8/28 DFS Hitting and Stacks play.

8/30 DFS Hitting Picks – Second Baseman

Jose Altuve, HOU at TOR

DK ($5,100), FD ($4,200)

In 161 fewer at-bats from last season, Altuve has already equaled his career-best with 24 homers. That number could be eclipsed tonight as Altuve and the Astros head up north for a weekend set against the Blue Jays. His Isolated Power (.251) is .116 better than last year as he’s exchanged a career-high 39.4% hard contact rate and a slight bump in fly ball rate (30.7%) while watching his line drive rate dip to 18.3%.

What’s insane is that Altuve went .321/.384/.634 (1.018 OPS) with eight homers, 19 RBI and 32 runs scored this month and may not have been the best player in his lineup. Ponder that one for a second.

8/30 DFS Hitting Picks – Shortstop

Francisco Lindor, CLE at TB

DK ($4,800), FD ($4,500)

Lindor launched his fourth homer in his last six games during Thursday’s win over the Tigers and remains worth the price to add to any 8/30 DFS Hitting Picks lineup. He’s put up at least 15.50 FanDuel points in five of his last six games and has produced an OPS over 1.200 in the past week.

If you look at his hard contact rate, you’ll see it’s increased with each passing season, going from 25.5% in his rookie season in 2015 to his current 43.7%. While his Isolated Power has dipped to “just” .231, Lindor’s second half run has been fueled by an increased BABIP that has gone from .279 in 2018 to .313 this season.

8/30 DFS Hitting Picks – Third Baseman

Nolan Arenado, COL vs. PIT

DK ($5,700), FD ($4,700)

Including Thursday night’s effort against the Pirates, six of Arenado’s last 13 hits have been of the extra base persuasion, making him platinum-locked as a 8/30 DFS Hitting Picks member. When is it a bad thing to see a hitter of Arenado’s caliber delivering a 44.1% fly ball rate in Coors Field, where he also has an OPS over 1.000? I’ll wait.

Even with a slight dip in hard contact rate (41.6% compared to last season’s 42.9%) and HR/FB% (17.8%, 20.7% in 2018), Arenado at home against a pitcher (Dario Agrazal) who has a 1.84 HR/9 rate and 43.2% fly ball rate is money.

8/30 DFS Hitting Picks – Outfielder

Aaron Judge, NYY vs. OAK

DK ($5,300), FD ($4,500)

A week ago, Judge had just two homers in the month of August to go along with an OPS that barely hovered over .700. Five homers and 1.485 OPS later, Judge comes into tonight’s game with a .921 OPS this month with 15 of his 28 hits going for extra bases. The recent tear has pushed Judge’s Isolated Power to .236, putting him on par with last year’s .249. He’s dirty after dark, as Judge sports a .934 OPS in night games.

Judge is putting together a solid 29.6% line drive rate, yet isn’t getting enough lift (29% fly ball rate) to justify a vicious 55.4% hard contact rate. Take him into the lineup as Judge’s 1.179 OPS against lefties won’t be good news for A’s starter Brett Anderson, who has a lifetime 6.86 ERA against the Yankees in eight career starts.

8/30 DFS Hitting Picks – Outfielder

Sam Hillard, COL vs. PIT

DK ($4,000), FD ($2,900)

(Yet) another rookie who has debuted swinging like a first-ballot Hall of Famer, Hillard has wallopped a pair of homers among his first three big league hits. In only eight at-bats, Hillard has given DFSers a sample of his work in Triple-A, where he hammered 35 homers. He also stole 22 bases en route to producing a freakish 1.569 OPS.

Hilliard had a 41% fly ball rate and a 41.5% pull rate in the minors this season, traits that should allow him to thrive in Coors Field against hapless Pirates pitchers this weekend, including the aforementioned Agrazal. If he’s in the lineup, Hillard is a bargain.

8/30 DFS Hitting Picks – Outfielder

Aristides Aquino, CIN at STL

DK ($4,900), FD ($4,100)

Aquino has shook off a brief slump and has returned to mauling hurlers at a historic pace. He comes to the Gateway to the West with three homers and an 1.173 OPS in the past week, continuing a month that has seen Aquino go .330/.393/.804 (1.197 OPS). As far as first months go, Aquino has made a hell of an impression.

Aquino came into the majors with a .337 Isolated Power in Triple-A, only to destroy that mark, raising it to .474. His hard contact rate has come down to 38.9%. However, his fly ball rate is a strong 47.2% and you certainly live with his 23.4% strikeout rate. Something will give between him and Cards hurler Dakota Hudson. Bet on the Red.

8/30 DFS Hitting Stacks

8/30 Hitting Stack of the Day: New York Yankees: Build with Judge as the foundation and add Gleyber Torres ($4,900 DK) and Gary Sanchez ($4,700 DK). Attempting to go all-in toward a hard out Yankees stack will cost you when it comes to pitching, so look after Luke Voit ($5,100 DK) or D.J. LeMahieu ($5,300 DK)

8/30 Hitting Stack Runner-Up: Oakland A’s: Wheel out the right-handed bats, starting with Canha, who is enough of a bargain to allow you to add Matt Chapman ($4,700 DK). Josh Phegley ($3,800 DK) has a homer and 1.182 OPS in 11 at-bats against Sabathia. Even in a lefty-lefty scenario, Matt Olson ($4,600 DK) is a good play.

8/30 Hitting Stack to Consider: Pittsburgh Pirates: Rockies starter Antonio Senzatela has a 6.80 ERA at Coors Field and allows hitters to batter him to the tune of a .310 batting average. Bryan Reynolds ($5,600 DK) is a good start, but Kevin Newman ($5,200 DK), Collin Moran ($4,600 DK), Melky Cabrera ($3,900 DK) and Josh Bell ($5,700) are strong options.

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5 years ago 0 comments

MLB

8/27 DFS Hitting and Stacks

Antonio D'Arcangelis 5 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

Hey folks! It’s my first post here at Win Daily Sports so I’m psyched to get off to a big start and make everybody some money! It’s a full schedule (15 games) so let’s embrace the variance and give you some solid plays for those GPPs in 8/27 DFS!Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, weather reports, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!8/27 DFS Hitting CatcherJ.T. Realmuto, PHI vs. PITDK ($4,600), FD ($3,600)I wouldn’t blame you for picking one of the catchers in the Coors Field game, but Realmuto is locked into a good matchup at home versus LHP Steven Brault (who has his biggest problem against RHBs and their cumulative .345 wOBA) and won’t be as highly owned as some of the other studs around his price point. The Phillies backstop sports a .294/.344/.563 slash against southpaws and is a better hitter at home as well (.375 wOBA, 132 wRC+).8/27 DFS Hitting First BasemanRhys Hoskins, PHI vs. PITDK ($4,500), FD ($3,900)You probably have an inkling who one of my non-Coors stacks is going to be at this point, but I’ll refresh your memory a bit on Hoskins and his destruction of LHPs at home this year. In 67 plate appearances, he’s hitting a ridiculous .340/.485/.680 at Citizens Bank versus southpaws with a similarly preposterous .340 ISO. He just ended a long homer drought and he’s been batting near the top of the lineup.8/27 DFS Hitting Second BasemanJason Kipnis, CLE at DETDK ($3,700), FD ($3,200)Kipnis benefits from facing a bad pitcher who struggles against lefties (Turnbull has a .373 xwOBA vs. LHB this season) and is primarily a value play that might help fit some of the more potent stacks. Hitters in Comerica Park are usually smart to avoid, but as a one-off in the middle of a dangerous lineup, Kipnis is worth a look in large-field GPPs for his reduced price on DraftKings and a tasty matchup. For BvP fans, he’s 3-for-9 career against Spencer Turnbull with a HR – the only Indians player who’s gone deep off the Tigers hurler.8/27 DFS Hitting ShortstopXander Bogaerts, BOS at COLDK ($5,700), FD ($4,100)The Red Sox are facing a pitcher making his Major League debut on Tuesday, and we’ll discuss the stack a bit later – but Bogaerts is one of the best Red Sox to start against either LHPs or RHPs (over the past two seasons he’s sporting an xwOBA of .406 against both types of pitcher with an ISO of .244 against RHPs) and he’s an excellent play in all formats if you can afford him. There’s a bevy of decent options at SS on this slate, and Bogaerts is the best of them.8/27 DFS Hitting Third BasemanMatt Chapman, OAK at KCDK ($4,800), FD ($3,600)Chapman endured a prolonged slump in July that saw him hit just two HRs and slash a measly .231/.299/.385, but he’s broken through in August with improved power (.303 ISO in 20 games this month) and is coming off a big night in Kansas City where the entire A’s lineup went wild. If you’re not too ken on going right back to the well with a full Athletics stack, Chapman makes a good one-off bat against the left-handed Mike Montgomery.Tired of losing money on your DFS and Sportsbook? Sign up today and become a winner while turning your passion for sports into a second stream of income!8/27 DFS Hitting OutfielderKhris Davis, OAK at KCDK ($3,400), FD ($2,400)Another value play that could help you fit in some of the more expensive stacks, Davis had a big Monday night in Kansas City and is starting to heat up with homers in two of his last five games. He’s one of the cheaper options who’s capable of a multi-HR game and sports a .443 xwOBA against lefties over the past two seasons. He’s a risk, for sure, but he’ll be relatively low-owned and doesn’t cost much.8/27 DFS Hitting OutfielderJackie Bradley, Jr., BOS at COLDK ($4,200), FD ($3,000)If Bradley gets the start in Coors, he makes for an excellent value play given the implied run total and the relatively cheap price. He’s homered twice in his last four games and any ball he hits into a gap could end up a triple. Bradley’s a much better hitter versus RHP and provides some much-needed salary relief in an otherwise expensive stack. You’ll have to double check to maker sure he’s in the lineup, but his price range offers some decent swap-outs (Joc Pederson and Matt Beaty are both $4,200 in the later games).8/27 DFS Hitting OutfielderMookie Betts, BOS at COLDK ($5,500), FD ($4,600)Betts is a little cheaper than both Charlie Blackmon and J.D. Martinez and should be busy wreaking havoc against the Rockies pitching staff. An excellent cash game play given his upside and baseline, Betts has a good matchup and makes for a smart anchor in Red Sox GPP stacks as well. He has a .469 xwOBA over the last two seasons facing RHPs and hits left-handers just as well – so the Rockies’ bullpen could be in for a long night.8/27 DFS Hitting Stacks8/27 Hitting Stack of the Day: Boston Red Sox: The first five hitters (Betts, Rafael Devers, Bogaerts and Andrew Benintendi – who’s DTD with side tightness – are my favorite four in that bunch) are going to be awfully expensive, so it might be best to swap out J.D. Martinez ($5,600 DK) for the aforementioned Bradley, Mitch Moreland ($4,800 on DK and $3,500 FD) Brock Holt ($4,000 DK and $2,900 FD) or even catcher Sandy Leon ($2,600 DK).8/27 Hitting Stack Runner-Up: Colorado Rockies: Rick Porcello has a lot more experience than counterpart Rico Garcia, but he’s still facing a lineup with an implied total over 6 runs and plenty of potent bats, including Charlie Blackmon ($5,700 DK, $4,500 FD, Trevor Story ($5,600 DK, 4,300 FD), Nolan Arenado ($5,600 DK, $4,600 FD) and Ian Desmond ($4,300 DK, $2,900 FD) – with value options 2B/OF eligible Garrett Hampson ($3,300 DK and $2,700 FD) and C Tony Wolters ($3,400 DK).8/27 Hitting Stack to Consider: Philadelphia Phillies: This could be an overlooked stack with Realmuto and Hoskins, Bryce Harper ($5,100 DK), Scott Kingery ($4,600 DK) and Jean Segura ($4,300) as my favorite options.

5 years ago 0 comments

MLB

DFS Hitter Picks and Prop Plays for 7/22: Bringing Vogelbach!

Cora Baylis 5 years ago

written by Cora Baylis

We’re back at it with DFS hitter picks for this Monday slate. More importantly, we have a Monkey Knife Fight Pick for you and those have been awesome for us for months now.

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Catcher

Gary Sanchez, NYY at MIN

DK ($4,500) FD ($3,900)

Sanchez is actually in a bit of a slump right now but it’s lowered his price to this tasty number. He is arguably the best hitting catcher in the game, which is evident by his .567 xSLG and .376 xwOBA. Those advanced statistics confirm to us that he’s the best hitting catcher in MLB and it’s really no surprise that he has 24 homers in just 283 at-bats this season. That’s one of the best rates around and all of this doesn’t even take into consideration that Sanchez gets to face a lefty. Since 2017, Sanchez has a .525 SLG and .872 OPS against southpaws. Martin Perez is a lefty who’s really struggling right now too, pitching to a 5.65 ERA and 1.37 WHIP over his last eight starts.

First Base

Daniel Vogelbach, SEA vs. TEX

DK ($4,400) FD ($3,800)

Vogelbach has been making minced meat of right-handers all season long and it’s fun watching this lumberjack become one of the best DFS hitters. So far this season, Vogelbach is generating a .405 OBP, .588 SLG and .993 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor. That’s why he has 21 homers and 48 RBI against right-handers, which are some of the best splits in the game. Adrian Sampson is definitely a righty we can exploit too, with the Texas righty pitching to a 4.92 ERA and 1.43 WHIP for the season while posting a 12.96 ERA and 2.40 WHIP over his last four starts.

Second Base

Brian Dozier, WSH vs. COL

DK ($3,700) FD ($2,700)

Picking second baseman is like strolling through your Netflix queue when you know there’s nothing good in there. This position is simply terrible and that’s why I always try to find values. Dozier is just that, as I want to get in some Washington bats against Peter Lambert. The Rockies righty is pitching to a 6.06 ERA and 1.40 WHIP this season, which is right around his 5.06 ERA and 1.44 WHIP at the Triple-A level. That’s why the Nationals are projected for more than five runs, as Dozier should be a major part of that. The former 40-20 threat is in the midst of a resurgent stretch too, posting a .390 OBP and .938 OPS over his last 36 games. Those are huge numbers from someone in this price range and we need to take advantage of a DFS hitter like this when his value is so low.

Third Base

Nolan Arenado, COL at WSH

DK ($4,400) FD ($4,100)

It’s always strange to have to scroll down to find Arenado among the third basemen and that alone makes him an attractive DFS hitter. While he is typically better at home, we have to love this matchup. The Nationals are throwing out Austin Voth and his 5.10 ERA and 1.30 WHIP, which is on par with his 5.06 career xFIP. That’s a scary thought against a hitter who has a minimum of a .362 OBP and .924 OPS dating back to 2016.

Shortstop

Francisco Lindor, CLE at TOR

DK ($4,500) FD ($3,800)

The Indians are one of the hottest teams in the league right now and Lindor is a major reason why. Over his last 12 games, Lindor has four doubles, three homers and two steals, as that streak extends much longer than that. Since May 4, Lindor is hitting .301 while generating an .867 OPS in that span. What really makes him intriguing here is that he gets to bat from the right side, with Lindor posting a .380 OBP and .907 OPS against left-handers since 2017. Ryan Borucki is definitely not a guy we need to worry about either, with the southpaw pitching to a 7.55 FIP at the minors this season while providing a 4.62 xFIP in his Major League career.

Outfield

Jordan Luplow, CLE at TOR

DK ($4,200) FD ($2,900)

If you’ve been reading my articles, you know that I love Luplow against lefties. The simple fact is, Luplow is one of the best hitters in the league when he faces a southpaw. That’s evident by his .417 OBP, .696 SLG and 1.112 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor. Those are some bonkers statistics and it’s really no surprise that he bats cleanup in these circumstances. We already discussed that we want to stack against Borucki, as he’ll be making his season debut here. This is where people forget that we’re picking DFS hitters and it’s more about matchups than anything else.

J.D. Martinez, BOS at TB

DK ($4,100) FD ($3,900)

Needless to say, if you’re playing on DraftKings, get J.D. into your lineup as a DFS hitter. This price made my jaw drop and it’s a wonder what DraftKings is thinking with this tag. This is simply one of the best hitters in the game facing a weak pitcher with the platoon advantage in his favor. The advanced statistics are simply incredible, with Martinez generating a .578 xSLG and .406 xWOBA this season. Those are some of the best numbers in the league and it doesn’t even take into consideration that J.D. has a 1.136 OPS against southpaws since the beginning of 2017.

Corey Dickerson, PIT vs. STL

DK ($4,000) FD ($2,900)

Can we start giving this dude the credit he deserves as a DFS hitter? Dickerson has done nothing but rake since his days with the Rockies and these sites continue to treat him like a bench player. We’re talking about a guy who has a career .285 AVG and .826 OPS. He’s actually done most of that damage against righties, providing a .239 ISO, .361 wOBA and .860 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor. Those numbers are actually all better this year and it’s strange that he’s priced so low on these sites.

Monkey Knife Fight Pick of the Day

After a handful of DFS hitter picks, let’s go over a MKF play that intrigues me.

Play MLB Player Prop Games and Get 100 Percent Bonus!

Lindor/Luplow/Ramirez Over 6.5 Total Bases

You probably could have seen this coming with the write-ups but Ramirez is one of the hottest hitters in the game too. This offense is projected for more than five runs and these are the guys that should do it.

5 years ago 0 comments

MLB

FanDuel WFBC: The Road to San Diego through Coors Field

Scott Engel 5 years ago

written by Scott Engel

Wes Passinault can thank Ian Desmond and revel in the worst performance of the season by Hyun Jin-Ryu, He is headed to the biggest Fantasy Sports event he could ever hope to be a part of, the FanDuel WFBC.

The 36 year-old accountant from Amherst, Wisconsin won a seat in the 2019 $2,000,000 FanDuel World Fantasy Baseball Championship in San Diego on August 24 by taking down a qualifier on June 28. He also did it with some input from his friend and Win Daily analyst Mark Paquette.

The Path Goes Through Colorado

“I was teetering on using Desmond,” he said. “But Mark told me for a Colorado bat at $3200, I had to take him. That is what took it over the edge for me.”

The Rockies and Dodgers combined for 22 runs that night. Desmond scored 18.9 points on FanDuel, going 2 for 5 with a double, two runs scored and an RBI. Passinault used seven hitters from the Los Angeles/Colorado game. Nolan Arenado had a four-hit night, with two doubles and a HR, and led the way to the FanDuel WFBC with 40.4 points. Max Muncy had a homer and four RBI and came in with 38.7.

“I felt confident like I always did, and I had more confidence on that night targeting Coors Field bats,” he said. “I knew I was going to get on some Rockies bats that night.”

A savvy Fantasy DFS player, Passinault has been competing since 2000 in seasonal and 2013 in Daily games. He was set on attacking Ryu, the premier pitcher in the National League, when most others would not. He was not afraid to gun for the rare Ryu down outing in Colorado.

It’s not often when Colorado bats go so underowned at home. I looked up the projected ownership numbers for Arenado and stuck with him and never changed,” Passinault said.

Ryu allowed seven earned runs and helped Passinault to his biggest Fantasy night ever and a seat in the FanDuel WFBC. The previous season, he had won $2,500 in a multi-entry tournament on FanDuel. Now he had woken up to approximately $8,000. He took first place in four of the five tournaments he entered that night.

The Delayed Winning Reaction

But Passinault did not find out about his winnings and seat in the live finals in San Diego until the next day. He said he knew he was going to be close to some success. But he simply turned his phone off for the night before the games ended. He didn’t realize his good fortune until the next day when he was readying for a cornhole tournament.

“My phone just started exploding,” he said. “Then I saw that I had won the qualifier and realized what happened.”

Passinault estimated he had tried to qualify for a seat in the FanDuel WFBC 55 times before he finally got in. Now he is going to play for a first place prize of $500,000 and is guaranteed a minimum of $5,000. He is having all his expenses paid for the trip and will experience welcome and viewing parties. He will also be entered into a $50,000 single game championship tournament at a Red Sox/Padres game at Petco Park, among other VIP experiences. This will be his first ever trip to San Diego.

“What I am really looking forward to the most is being with all those great DFS players in one room, and experiencing the culture as all of them get together,” Passinault said. “I think I just might be an Average Joe compared to some of these guys.”

Not Feeling the Pressure

But Passinault said he is not putting an extra pressure on himself as the FanDuel WFBC event approaches.

“I am just going to get back to playing DFS and focus on the day at hand,” he said.

In the meantime, Passinault is also grateful to his friend Paquette. Passinault had previously followed Mark on Twitter and reached out to him during the previous NBA season to start chatting DFS. It was the Win Daily writer who ultimately urged him to roster Desmond.

Ultimately, though, Passinault said his love for numbers and going with his gut has gotten him this far. Now he’ll be enjoying the VIP DFS experience of a lifetime at the FanDuel WFBC.

“As an accountant I have a natural love for the numbers, but about 40 percent of it is just gut feel,” he said. “Sometimes my gut will just tell me to go the other way.”

That mix of number crunching and going with hunches has Wes Passinault on his way to the Fantasy experience of his life. He is mentally readying for next month at the FanDuel WFBC in San Diego.

‘My wife and I are really looking forward to it,” he said. ‘But I keep reminding myself to not get too far ahead, we’re not ahead to it yet.”

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