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9/24 MLB DFS Pitching and Prop Picks

The last time I saw this many Top Guns in one night I was at the Movie Theater watching Tom Cruise. So, with Gorilla Biscuits “Start Today” playing in the background on this 9/24 MLB DFS slate, I bring you today’s pitching picks.

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On theDefense

NoahSyndergaard vs. Miami Marlins

$8,200 FD / $9,000 DK

The Marlins have been red hot as of late, how hot? They arethird in wOBA over the last seven days. This scares me about as much as mydaughter Sam throwing a temper tantrum. They are still the Marlins, the same Marlinsteam that is striking out 24.2 percent of the time versus RHPs while being inthe bottom of the league in offense. Thor also has had his way all season with thefish with 12 strikeouts over 14 innings. Sometimes the best play is not alwaysthe best player and that is the case here on this 9/24 MLB DFS slate. Lock himin because Thor is going to bring the hammer tonight.

Max Scherzervs. Philadelphia Phillies

$10,600 FD / $11,000

This one was a struggle for me tonight. Gerrit Cole is the obvious cash cow but for the price I just feel that you can get close enough numbers from other starters, without paying the highest salary on the board.

Next was Mike Clevinger, easy matchup, seems great right? The White Sox are the number one team offensively over the last seven days, why take a chance this continues tonight? This leaves Max Scherzer on this 9/24 MLB DFS slate.

The Phillies are striking out 23.2 percent of the timeversus RHPs with a subpar .315 wOBA. Over the last seven days they have a wRC+of 65, which has little chance of climbing tonight in this matchup. Scherzerthis season facing the Phils has a 0.75 ERA over 12 innings while striking out19. Mad Max should go totally beyond the Terrordome tonight in this cakematchup.

MadisonBumgarner vs. Colorado Rockies

$8,600 FD / $8,200 DK

Looking for a high upside one-two punch on DK for this 9/24 MLB DFS slate? Well you just found the battle of the splits. The Rockies are 29th in MLB on the road in offense while striking out 23.4 percent of the time versus LHPs. Meanwhile, Bumgarner’s home ERA is 2.80 versus his 5.29 ERA on the road. With splits both lining up here it feels like this one is a gift from stars at his price.

JeffHoffman vs. San Francisco Giants

$6,500 FD / $4,800 DK

I am sad to say there is no magic split here, Hoffman is generally just as bad outside of Colorado as he is in. But, for the price on DK it makes a strong argument for large field GPP play. The Giants are striking out 23.6 percent of the time versus RHPs with a low .303 wOBA. Over the last seven days they have generated a wRC+ of 63, which is embarrassing. Don’t expect miracles here on this 9/24 MLB DFS slate but it is reasonable to expect 12-to-18 fantasy points on DK.

Today’s Pitching Stats

NameTeamWLIPK/9BB/9HR/9GB%HR/FBERAxFIP
Max ScherzerNationals107166.112.611.730.8740.60%10.70%2.812.92
Noah SyndergaardMets108185.29.022.331.0747.60%12.80%4.223.93
Madison BumgarnerGiants99200.28.71.841.2135.80%11.60%3.864.34
Jeff HoffmanRockies2661.28.94.092.6335.50%23.40%6.715.29

On the Attack

MitchKeller vs. Chicago Cubs

It feels like a Cubs kind of night. The last time Keller faced Chicago he allowed six earned runs over 4 1/3 innings. The Cubbies are on the ropes here, its basically win every game, or go home. Stack away!

Chicago Cubs vs. RHPs

NamePABB%K%BB/KSBOBPSLGOPSwOBAwRC+
Anthony Rizzo45712.30%14.20%0.8640.4180.5510.9690.406152
Kris Bryant50510.10%23.20%0.4430.370.4950.8660.366126
Willson Contreras3099.10%24.60%0.3710.3460.5130.8590.358120
Kyle Schwarber47011.90%25.10%0.4720.3380.5380.8760.358120
David Bote25513.30%24.70%0.5430.380.4490.8290.352116
Jason Heyward46212.80%17.30%0.7480.3660.4720.8380.352116
Nicholas Castellanos5365.80%23.50%0.2520.3230.4930.8160.34109
Victor Caratini21410.30%21.00%0.4910.3460.4570.8030.339108
Ian Happ1019.90%22.80%0.4320.3070.4670.7740.32397
Robel Garcia525.80%40.40%0.1400.2690.50.7690.31190
Jonathan Lucroy2169.70%14.40%0.6800.3330.3780.7110.3193
Nico Hoerner515.90%13.70%0.4300.3140.4380.7510.3189
Ben Zobrist13410.40%12.70%0.8200.3510.3420.6930.30686
Albert Almora Jr.2414.10%16.20%0.2620.2840.4420.7260.29982
Addison Russell1676.60%21.60%0.3120.3010.4040.7050.29881

Anthony Kay vs. Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles bats are very unpredictable but go off often.Kay has surrendered nine earned runs in his last 14 innings pitched. In a smallpark like Toronto I am going all in on O’s tonight.

Baltimore Orioles vs. LHPs

NamePABB%K%BB/KSBOBPSLGOPSwOBAwRC+
Hanser Alberto2242.70%11.20%0.2420.4150.5370.9520.402151
Trey Mancini21510.20%20.90%0.4900.3670.5450.9130.377135
Renato Nunez2176.50%19.40%0.3300.3270.510.8370.345113
Pedro Severino1556.50%21.30%0.300.3230.490.8120.339109
Anthony Santander1454.80%25.50%0.1910.310.50.810.336107
D.J. Stewart424.80%14.30%0.3310.3570.3750.7320.31995
Jonathan Villar2436.60%26.70%0.2590.3110.4350.7460.31493
Richie Martin Jr.1605.60%21.90%0.2660.2910.3380.6290.27365
Rio Ruiz735.50%24.70%0.2200.2920.3430.6350.27365
Dwight Smith Jr.1098.30%29.40%0.2830.2750.3470.6220.26862
Mark Trumbo175.90%17.60%0.3300.2350.3750.610.25553
Mason Williams1010.00%30.00%0.3310.30.2220.5220.24345
Chance Sisco2412.50%37.50%0.3300.2920.1050.3970.21928
Steve Wilkerson1275.50%35.40%0.1600.2360.2280.4640.21223
Chris Davis688.80%44.10%0.200.2210.230.450.20519

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Monkey Knife Fight Prop Pick – Play These Picks Now and Get 100 Percent Bonus!

Although Randal Grichuk has struggled this season versus Bundy going 1-for-9, he has picked it up as of late with three home runs over his last seven days. He is dialing in and I see no reason why that does not continue tonight. Over here for sure.

Trey Mancini is 2-for-2 this season off of Kay, and I know that is not much to go on. Right handed hitters are also batting .283 this season versus Kay, seems easy enough for Trey. Have I said over yet?

Madbum is facing a Rockies team tonight that strikes out a ton versus LHPs, and he has easily reached this number in both home starts this season facing the Rocks. Over, over, and over.

The Giants are a difficult team at times to rack up strikeouts against. Hoffman has a hard enough time against easy prey, I am going under here all the way.

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Two elite arms on Friday’s schedule are Cash Game worthy. There’s at least four pitchers who sit on the cusp of CG status. However, the 9/13 DFS Pitching Picks is most intrigued by the punt option.

I think I made myself sick with that thought.

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9/13 DFS Pitching Picks – Cash Game Pitchers

Gerrit Cole, HOU at KC

DK ($12,200), FD ($12,000) 

Sunday’s 76-point performance was the 13th straight start that Cole has scored at least 40 points at FanDuel. He’s averaged at least 52 FD points in his last five starts. Cole also enters tonight with at least 10 strikeouts in eight of his last 10 starts and is just 19 Ks away from the 300 mark. Oddly enough, the Royals are one the few teams he’s slipped against this season, allowing four earned runs over 6.1 innings in his only previous appearance them. He did happen to fan nine before departing.

Cole is striking a sick, sick, sick 39.4% of the batters he’s faced along with 6.53 K/BB rate. He’s dropped his xFIP to 2.51 with SIERA of 2.67. Only eight pitchers have a better DRA- (Deserved Run Average Minus) than Cole’s 2.64. Kansas City’s projected lineup will have at least four players with better than 100 strikeouts this season with only three with above-average Deserved Runs Created+ Even with Jorge Soler’s 43 homers and Hunter Dozier’s breakout campaign, the Royals are lagging near the bottom of the American League in most offensive categories while also playing in a park that is strongly tilted toward pitchers.

In short, Cole’s easily the best Cash Game arm on the night. The Ks will be there in spades.

Max Scherzer, WAS vs. ATL

DK ($10,900), FD ($10,200) 

Scherzer still put up 52 points for his FanDuel users despite pitching just six innings. He reportedly “felt good” during a bullpen session on Tuesday, which is good news as he faces a Braves team that he limited to two hits and one earned run when he pitched in Atlanta last Sunday.

Only four pitchers — including teammate Stephen Strasburg — has a better PWARP than Scherzer’s 5.72. He leads all qualified starters with a 2.28 FIP and has lowed his BB/9 to a career-low 1.75. He has allowed a homer in four straight starts, but continues to fan batters at a 35% rate. What makes him almost a stone lock for Cash Game consideration every time out is also his ability to induce grounders (41.6%) better than he allows fly balls (38%), an underrated trait in this offensive frenzy of a season. The Braves offer an imposing lineup, yet Scherzer has held opponents to a .218 batting average while posting a 114:20 K:BB rate at home.

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9/13 DFS Pitching Picks – GPP Pitchers

Clayton Kershaw, LAD at NYM

DK ($11,900), FD ($11,700) 

Kershaw has been a Cash Game letdown of late, finishing with a combined 18.05 FanDuel points in his last two starts. With the NL West already clinched, there’s also the likelihood that the Dodgers could ease Kershaw’s workload. Those two reasons are why I can’t put Kershaw into a Cash Game format. He’s also lost his last three starts, approaching the 100-pitch count in his last two despite not reaching the sixth inning.

Blip or not, Kershaw has been hittable in his last two starts, allowing eight earned runs and three homers. The strikeouts are still there (12 over nine innings), yet his FB/GB rate has been 24:15, quite unusual for a hurler who has a 48.3% GB rate and allows fly balls at a 33.1% clip. The Mets did tag him for 10 hits and three earned runs over six innings on May 27. That memory also offers another reason why Kershaw is sitting at GPP status. The cost is too damn high to expect him to suddenly have his A-stuff when he’s been hovering around D+ of late.

Noah Syndergaard, NYM vs. LAD

DK ($10,400), FD ($9,400) 

Like his equally high-profile mound opponent, Syndergaard has been erratic of late. His ERA is above 4.00 for the first time since July 30 after allowing four earned runs over five innings against the Phillies last Sunday. It feels like Syndergaard has a brilliant outing only to have a letdown the following start. He pitched seven shutout innings against the Giants in his previous start before the Phils. However, he had come off of allowing nine earned runs in three innings against the White Sox.

Syndergaard is keeping the ball down (32.9% fly ball rate), a huge trait when facing Dodgers lumber. That’s allowed him to maintain an 11.8% HR/FB rate, a number further enhanced by the fact Syndergaard has allowed a 30% hard contact rate to opposing batters. There’s also the issue of who’s behind the plate. Syndergaard wants either Tomas Nido or Rene Rivera to catch him, but the Mets may go with Wilson Ramos’ offense rather than either of the two defensive-minded backstops. If Syndergaard gets his wish, he might border on Cash Game, but is best suited here.

Luis Castillo, CIN at ARI

DK ($10,500), FD ($10,400) 

Consider this striking while the iron is hot. Castillo gets a reeling Diamondbacks offense that managed just four runs in losing all four critical games at the Mets. Prior to Thursday, Arizona was a hitting a combined .199/.290/.321 over the previous six games, averaging over 10 batters’ strikeouts per game.

Castillo has four straight starts of at least 20 points at DraftKings and should be a solid play tonight. He has struck out 29 batters in his last 19.2 innings and offers an odd stat: Castillo has a very low 26.7% fly ball rate but has an 18% HR/FB rate. Don’t let that bother you when considering Castillo tonight. He could be one of higher scoring pitchers on the evening.

Charlie Morton, TB at LAA

DK ($9,800), FD ($9,990)

Morton has bounced back nicely since being smoked by the Astros on August 27. Since then, he’s produced consecutive starts of 43 points for his FanDuel users. His 30.4% strikeout rate is going to be challenged by an Angels lineup that has the third-fewest batters strikeouts in the majors.

 

9/13 DFS Pitching Picks – Punt Pick

Sandy Alcantara, MIA at SF

DK ($8,000), FD ($6,800) 

Alcantara has quietly ripped off four straight starts of at least 30 FanDuel points, striking out at least seven in each. He’s got an 0.92 WHIP in his last seven starts while holding batters to a .209 average since the All-Star Break. His 4.09 BB/9 rate remains an issue, but the increased strikeout rate makes him a sneaky good play against a so-so San Francisco offense in a heavily-favored pitcher’s park.

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Here we are, it’s Labor Day. While most of you were still sleeping, I was sitting here spinning records, and poring over the 9/2 MLB DFS Pitching Picks. One of the things I love about having a Monday holiday is a bevy of MLB games to watch.

On this 9/2 MLB DFS slate we are starting a new format, besides giving you my top pitching picks to play, I will also be giving you some top pitching picks to attack. This all part of our continuing effort to bring you the highest quality analysis in the industry. Speaking of quality analysis, if you did not already know we now have a show on Sirius XM Fantasy Sports Radio on Saturday nights from 11 pm to 1 am EST. Make sure you tune in. So, without further delay, I bring you today’s top plays.

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On theDefense

JakeOdorizzi vs. Detroit Tigers

$9,700 FD / $10,500 DK

The Detroit Tigers are a prime team to attack on any given day, and this 9/2 MLB DFS slate is no different. They are striking out 27.3 percent of the time (1st in MLB) with a .292 wOBA versus RHPs this season. Meanwhile, Odorizzi has been steady mobbin’ to the tune of RHBs, hitting a whopping .187 off him this season. With the Tigers being extremely right-handed heavy, Jake not from State Farm should dominant this Little League lineup today.

NoahSyndergaard vs Washington Nationals

$9,000 FD / $10,000 DK

In GPP play on this 9/2 MLB DFS slate, even facing a teamthat mashes RHPs like the Nationals, I would seriously consider using Thor. Eventhough the Nats have ugly numbers versus opposing pitchers this season, they donot versus Syndergaard. Over three starts versus Washington this season Thorhas 18 strikeouts over 21 innings with eight earned runs, four of them comingin his first start back in late March. With Syndergaard having a road ERA of 3.49versus his 4.73 ERA at home, everything appears to be a go for him today.

MasahiroTanaka vs. Texas Rangers

$8,000 FD / $8,100 DK

Tanaka, much like Julio Teheran of years past, is much more dominant at home. So far this season he is posting a 3.26 home ERA as opposed to his 5.93 ERA on the road. The Rangers are striking out 24.2 percent of the time versus RHPs with a low wRC+ of 86, while batting a pathetic .202 over the last seven. Despite Masahiro’s ups and downs as of late, in his last start facing Seattle he sent seven to the dugout mad while pitching a seven-inning shutout. On this 9/2 MLB DFS slate Tanaka is one of my favorite plays for the price.

Joe Rossvs. New York Mets

$6.800 FD / $6,600 DK

For the record on this 9/2 MLB DFS slate I prefer this play a lot more on DK over FD. Although the price is still nice on FD, I think the value is better served in the SP2 slot on DK. The Mets can be very dangerous to attack in MLB DFS versus RHPs, they are in the middle of the pack striking out 20 percent of the time with a .319 wOBA. But Ross has looked too good as of late to pass up here. Over his last five starts spanning a little more than 25 innings, he has only allowed three earned runs while striking out 16 batters. My biggest concern is innings here, as he does have a few starts in that span where he failed to reach the five-inning mark.

On theAttack

Drew Smylyvs. Cincinnati Reds

For fantasy owners Drew Smyly has done anything but make you smile. Over his last five starts he has allowed 20 earned runs over his last 26 innings, making the Reds a prime stack on this 9/2 MLB DFS slate. Cincinnati has some powerful RHBs, and is posting a .328 wOBA versus LHPs, Smyly is in serious trouble today in the Great American Small Park.

Notable Bats

Aristides Aquino has a .578 wOBA and 261 wRC+ versusLHPs with four straight games without a HR.

Phillip Ervin has .488 wOBA and 202 wRC+ versus LHPswhile batting .333 with two home runs over the last seven days. He also hasfound his way into the three spot.

Eugenio Suarez has .423 wOBA and 160 wRC+ versus LHPs and has seven home runs over his last nine games. He did leave yesterday’s second game of the doubleheader with a hand injury so keep your eyes peeled here.

JordanZimmerman vs. Minnesota Twins

The McRib, Roller skates, and Sandy Koufax are three thingsthat all had to come to an end. Much like Jordan Zimmerman’s good starts as oflate. Although he has three starts in a row allowing two earned runs or less,the last time he faced Minnesota they bombed him for five runs over threeinnings sending the Zim home in dismay. I see serious regression here today andwill stack against this geriatric pitcher on this 9/2 MLB DFS slate facing a Twinsteam posting a .345 wOBA versus RHPs.

Notable Bats

Nelson Cruz is crushing everyone and RHPs are notdifferent. He is posting .411 wOBA and wRC+ of 158 versus RHPs this season.

Mitch Garver currently has a .396 wOBA versus RHPs with a wRC+ of 147. Over the last seven days he is also batting .455 with three home runs.

Luis Arraez, if he gets the start today, which I believe he will, has a .374 wOBA versus RHPs with a complimentary 133 wRC+.  With bigger bats, and $4,000 price tag on DK, you can get him at a low ownership today for sure.

Mike Minorvs. New York Yankees

The New York Yankees hit home runs like I eat Beyond Burgers, pretty much every day. I know this, does Mike Minor? If not, he will soon enough. The Yankees are crushing lefties to the tune of .360 wOBA this season with a wRC+ of 121, both which are 4th in MLB. The magic number is 55, remember that number on this 9/2 MLB DFS slate, it is how many dingers the Yanks have launched this season versus lefties. With Minor allowing 10 earned runs in his last 12 1/3 innings, I suspect the number will be much higher tomorrow. Keep in mind that Minor has reverse splits, so do not be afraid to go lefty on lefty here in GPPs.

Notable Bats

D.J. LeMahieu is posting .476 wOBA and 202 wRC+ versus LHPs this season. Despite the horrible BVP versus Minor I would still rank him at the top batting .400 with two home runs over the last seven days.

Aaron Judge has returned to pass judgement with his .470 wOBA versus LHPs. He is batting .375 with three home runs over the last seven days and I fully see him putting one out today.

Luke Voit has posted a .354 wOBA this season along with a wRC+ of 120 versus LHPs. I like the pricing for him on both sites today and will have a lot of exposure to him. If Mike Ford somehow draws the start, that will certainly be my pivot.

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Monkey Knife Fight Prop Pick

With the Tigers striking out 27.2 percent of the time versus RHPs, and Odorizzi striking out six batters or more in four out of his last five starts the over here seems to easy.

Zimmerman more-than-likely will not see enough innings after the Twins bats get a hold of him today, so the under here is where I am looking.

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If the 8/27 DFS Pitching Picks was Popeye’s Chicken Sandwich, then the 8/28 DFS Pitching Picks feels like the last overpriced microwave “chicken sandwich” at the local gas station.

Outside of another gem of a pitching matchup in Houston and Thor wielding his mighty hammer at Citi Field, the rest of the day’s slate is, well, bad.

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8/28 DFS Pitching Picks Cash Game Pitchers 

Gerrit Cole, HOU vs. TB

DK ($12,000), FD ($12,200) 

Cole will draw a high percentage of users, especially in FanDuel where he’s recorded at least 40 FD points in nine straight starts dating to June 30. He’s coming off his third start of at least 60 FD points in this run, a 67-pointer against the Tigers last Thursday. Cole currently leads the Majors in ERA+ with 163, due in part to his ability to humiliate hitters at offensive-friendly Minute Maid Park (.178 OBA). Since the All-Star Break, Cole has been downright frightening, running a 6-0 mark with 68 strikeouts over 47 innings, raising his strikeout rate to 37.3%. Ranked sixth in FIP at 2.98, Cole gets to a face a Rays team that was hitting just .202/.233/.323 before Tuesday’s beatdown where they managed just one run on seven hits. Play. Him.

Noah Syndergaard, NYM vs. CHC

DK ($10,300), FD ($10,000) 

Friendly piece of advice: leave Cubs hitters alone if you’re banking on homers from your DFS lineup. Syndergaard has allowed just one homer in his last 54.1 innings, which explains the 28.7% hard contact rate he’s allowed. His fastball has expanded its bite, kicking up to 97.7 mph, as Syndergaard has increased his usage of premium gas to 58.6% of the time. Not quite in a run like Cole’s, Syndergaard has still produced a run of eight straight starts of at least 30 points at FanDuel that includes four starts of at least 46 FP. If you’re looking to save money but want an elite arm for cash game purposes, Syndergaard’s the play. Opponents are batting just .207 against him since the ASB while also allowing three or fewer runs in seven of his last eight outings.

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8/28 DFS Pitching Picks GPP Pitchers

Ryan Yarborough, TB at HOU

DK ($9,300), FD ($9,000) 

Man, it’s tough to suggest Yarborough after watching the Astros wear out Charlie Morton and the Rays bullpen for 15 runs on 18 hits Tuesday night. However, Yarborough is going to make more than one DFS’er think twice about a potential Astros stack. You’d think Yarborough’s home/road splits would tilt strongly toward dominance at the Trop, but you’d be wrong. Outside of Tampa Bay, he sports a 2.21 ERA and .174 OBA with just four homers allowed. Yarborough has elevated his strikeout rate to 22% and a K-BB% of 19%. Another reason to be hesitant on Astros bats tonight: Yarborough’s 29.4% hard contact rate allowed. Oh, here’s one more: an overall HR/FB% of just 8.8%. Forget Tuesday night and take your chances that Yarborough will meet a far better fate than Morton.

Max Scherzer, WAS vs. BAL

DK ($11,400), FD ($12,000) 

Oh, the risk tolerance here. Scherzer himself said he’s not “out of the woods,” and it showed in the four innings and 71 pitches he tossed against the Pirates in his first start back from the DL. Name value and opponent are the only reasons why he’s suggested here, and while Scherzer’s proclaiming he’s not all the way back, there’s still the prospect of him delivering 35-40 points without getting to the seventh inning considering the Orioles are 20th in batter’s strikeouts and 26th in lBA (.252). B-More is also 22nd in adjusted batters runs (-65.3), making them a potentially nice blend of lousy that goes well with a hurler that has struck out 34.8% of the batters he’s faced. Overlooked in the midst of Scherzer’s clashes with injuries is a sharp reduction in fly balls, as it has gone from from seven straight seasons of at least 41.6% to 37.8%.

I strongly suggest NOT going with Scherzer in cash games. The risk far outweighs the rewards. While hesitant to add him here, facing the Orioles at home makes him more a GPP option.

8/28 DFS Pitching Punt Pick

Kenta Madea, LA at SD

DK ($8,000), FD ($8,700) 

Maeda has 49 and 43 FD point outing in two of his last three starts, with a 32 FD pointer sandwiched in between. His K game has shown up in his past two starts, having struck out 18 batters despite pitching a combined 10 innings. Don’t expect him to eclipse more than 85-90 pitches, but expect the whiffs to keep coming as Maeda continues to use his change up as an excellent third complement to his heater and slider. Madea has gone from using his changeup 15.2% of the time in 2018 to 24.2% this year at the expense of reducing the frequency of his fastball (44.4% in 2018, 37.7% this season).

He gets something of a dream matchup in the Padres, who have gone .182/.254/.278 with 2.1 runs per game over the past week. San Diego batters are whiffing nearly nine times per game in that span, making Maeda a sneaky good punt play for the 8/28 DFS Pitching Picks.

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A look back at some 8/23 MLB DFS Winners plus their outlooks for the near future and rest of the season.

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8/23 MLB DFS Winner

Gerrit Cole, DET at HOU

Cole delivered right where Verlander left off: with a dominating performance against the Tigers. And our Premium Gold data-driven projection model was all over him:

Cole was by far, the highest point projection pitcher on the night. And he lived up to that billing with a seven inning, two hit, one walk, 12 strikeout scoreless performance. That was good enough for his 15th victory.

Outlook for the rest of the season: Cole and the rest of the Astros are battling the Yankees for home-field advantage in the A.L. playoffs. With the Yankees being swept in Oakland and now facing the Dodgers this weekend, the road to the World Series could go through Houston. This fact may cause the Astros to use Cole regularly and allow him to pad his already gaudy stats.

8/23 MLB DFS Winner: Yoan Moncada

Moncada made a splash in his return to the lineup Thursday, contributing a double and a home run in his first game action since July 30. He was also highly rated in our projection models despite missing the previous 22 games with a hamstring injury:

Our projection model had him predicted at over 9 DK points. Not many others out there had him that high coming off of injury.

Outlook for the rest of the season: Players like Moncada are who savvy DFS enthusiasts look at this time of year. The White Sox are a rebuilding team and will look at players like him to lead the way. He will play every day (injury permitting) and has a lot to prove.

8/23 MLB DFS Winner: Noah Syndergaard

It was a pitching duel in Queens until the rains came. Thor’s final line looked like this: six innings pitched with only two hits allowed, no walks nor runs and five punch outs. Again, our data driven projection model was very high on Thor:

Outlook for the rest of the season: The Mets are fighting for a N.L. playoff spot and Thor is rounding into form. That seems like a recipe for success in the DFS world every fifth day.

8/23 MLB DFS Winner: The Nationals Offense

I guess we need to decide if the Nationals are this good or if the Pirates are this bad. It is likely a little bit of both. In either case, our CEO and founder Jason Mezrahi was all over this team in the Premium Gold Cheat Sheet, naming them one his top stacks:

The Nationals scored seven runs, including long balls from Howie Kendrick and Anthony Rendon.

Outlook for the rest of the season: The current wild-card leader in the N.L, the Nationals will roll out a powerful lineup each night. They are poised to make another playoff appearance. And to make your lineup page look impressive.

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I always look forward to writing these pitching articles and we have yet another fascinating slate here. While a lot of these pitchers are guys I haven’t used much this season, there are still some great options out there. With that in mind, let’s get into our 8/16 DFS Pitching Picks. 

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8/16 DFS Pitching Cash Game Plays 

Luis Castillo, CIN vs. STL 

DK ($10,800)   FD ($11,100) 

I really haven’t written up Castillo a whole lot this season and that’s probably a mistake on my part. We’re talking about a complete breakout, with the Reds righty pitching to a 2.69 ERA and 1.11 WHIP this season while striking out 172 batters. That equates to an incredible 29.5 percent K rate, which is no surprise when you look at his 3.57 career xFIP.  

That’s why his price has risen so much and it’s amazing just how consistent he’s been. Castillo has at least 30 FD points in 20 of his 24 starts this season. The icing on the cake is this matchup though, with the Cardinals establishing themselves as one of the worst offenses in the league. In fact, St. Louis sits 25th in runs scored, 24th in OPS, 22nd in OBP and 25th in wOBA. That’s why Castillo and the Reds enter this matchup as a –160 favorite.   

Charlie Morton, TB vs. DET 

DK ($11,600)   FD ($11,300) 

Morton is easily my favorite play on the board. This dude has been downright special the last two seasons and it’s a wonder why more people aren’t taking notice. Dating back to last season, Morton is providing a 3.02 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 30 percent K rate. That’s backed up by a 3.33 xFIP and it’s amazing just how much this guy has improved.  

Much like Castillo, Morton is extremely reliable too. In 25 starts this season, the Tampa Bay righty has reached at least 33 FanDuel points in 21 of those fixtures. That appears to be the floor in a matchup like this, with the Motor City Kitties ranked bottom-three in runs scored, OBP, OPS, xwOBA and K rate. That’s truly frightening in a pitcher’s park like Tropicana Field and it’s main reason why Morton and the Rays enter this matchup as a –320 favorite.  

Noah Syndergaard, NYM at KC 

DK ($10,100)   FD ($9,800) 

Syndergaard has been slightly disappointing for season-long fantasy owners but his recent form shows just how much talent this dude possesses. Over his last six starts, Syndergaard is pitching to a 1.91 ERA and 1.04 WHIP while striking out 44 batters across 42.1 innings of action. He also went at least seven innings in all six of those starts, which is unheard of in today’s MLB. That’s the guy that we’ve been expecting, as his 2.85 FIP and 26.3 percent career K rate for show the sort of potential he has. All of that pairs beautifully with this matchup, with the Royals ranked 26th in runs scored, 25th in OBP, 26th in OPS, 23rd in wOBA and 22nd in xwOBA. All of these factors have him entering this matchup as a –190 favorite.  

8/16 DFS Pitching GPP Plays 

Vince Velasquez, PHI vs. SD 

DK ($7,200)   FD ($7,200) 

Velasquez has been stellar the last month or so and it’s not indicative in his price. Over his last 49 innings pitched, Velasquez is generating a 4.04 ERA, 3.50 xFIP, 1.12 WHIP and 9.7 K/9 rate. That’s the stud we’ve been waiting for and it’s really encouraging to see him pitching so well. This guy has always shown that sort of capability, with Velasquez posting a 4.19 xFIP. 4.04 SIERA and 25.4 percent K rate for his career.  

What makes him an enticing option here is this matchup, with the Padres ranked 23rd in runs scored, 23rd in OBP, 22nd in OPS, 27th in K rate and 28th in xwOBA. What makes that even scarier is the fact that they’re missing Fernando Tatis Jr and are throwing out a bunch of righties against Velasquez. For his career, VV has a .320 wOBA and 27 percent K rate against right-handed batters.     

Kyle Hendricks, CHC at PIT 

DK ($8,200)   FD ($7,800) 

Hendricks is coming off one of his worst starts of the year but that has lowered his price enough to entice me. We’re still talking about a guy with a 3.48 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 114:27 K:BB rate facing one of the worst offenses in the league. Prior to that ugly start against a scorching-hot Reds offense, Hendricks pitched to a 2.35 ERA and 0.97 WHIP over his previous seven appearances. All of that makes him tough to fade against a Pirates offense that ranks 20th in runs scored, 20th in wOBA and 19th in xwOBA.  

Jake Odorizzi, MIN at TEX 

DK ($9,200)   FD ($8,800) 

This is very risky when you look at Texas’ team total but there’s a lot to like here about Odorizzi. Let’s start with the Twins pitcher, as he’s in the midst of a breakout year. A 3.44 ERA and 1.22 WHIP speaks for itself but his 25.3 percent K rate is also the best mark of his career. That impressive strikeout stuff becomes very attractive against an offense like this, with the Rangers owning the worst K rate in the Majors. In addition, the Rangers also rank 19th in OBP and they simply haven’t been the same offense since Joey Gallo went down.

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Kyle Hendricks Over 4.5 Strikeouts

We had an ugly 0-2 outing in our last article, so its time to rebound with this pick. This happens to be pitching and I’m actually hitting over 70 percent with these strikeout props. While Pittsburgh is pretty good in terms of strikeouts, their weak offense should allow Hendricks to pitch into the sixth inning. As long as he does that, he will likley reach five Ks with his 21 percent K rate and good peripherals.

MKF Record 26-18

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Trust me, the 8/10 DFS pitching slate is pretty darn thin in quality. Sure, there’s a handful of familiar names, some of whom were once solid pitchers. The majority of starting arms feels more like a Saturday special from Guy’s Groovy Grab Bag, one that includes the ever-annoying TBD, otherwise known as the DFS version of Mystery Date (kids, Mystery Date was a…aw, just Google it).

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8/10 DFS Pitching Cash Game Pitchers 

Charlie Morton, TB at SEA

DK ($10,700)   FD ($10,100) 

One of two Cash Game-worthy arms pitching today, Morton is on pace to get the A.L. Cy Young scraps that former Astros teammates Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander will leave on the floor. Morton is on pace to surpass his career-best 201 strikeouts, fanning at least six in eight of his last 10 starts. He’s been a model of consistency, especially for FanDuel users, as he’s recorded at least 30 FD points in 11 of his last 13 starts. The Mariners are almost tailor made for another evening of Morton making opposing lineups look like human air conditioners as Seattle’s offense is 26th in strikeout percentage (25.6%). Morton is difficult to homer against, having allowed just 11 over 143.1 innings of work, with much of that is due to the struggles that come from getting fly balls off of him (30.1% fly ball rate). If you’re going to spend money on an arm, then invest it in Morton.

Noah Syndergaard, NYM at WAS

DK ($10,500)   FD ($10,800) 

…or Syndergaard, who’s been ruthlessly efficient over his last five starts, going at least seven innings while allowing three or fewer earned runs in each. Oh yeah: he’s not given up a homer since July 6. His run is part of the reason why the Mets have won 14 of their last 15 as Syndergaard goes against a Nationals lineup he’s handled well this season, holding them to a .179 batting average and striking out 19 over 20 innings (three starts). The Nats have, however, homered three times against him, neatly explaining the 3.60 ERA. Syndergaard’s 3.44 FIP is a better indication of how effective he has been rather than his 3.96 ERA. Like Morton, Thor drops major hammer on those seeking to get solid contact off him, oppressing batters to a 28% hard contact rate while keeping fly balls at a modest 32.6% clip.The Nats’ 95 OPS+ falls just below league average. More concerning about the Nationals’ lineup is how bereft of power they are on the road. Washington loses 60 points off its slugging percentage (.466 to .406) when away from home. Those numbers are worse when looking at their production at Citi Field, where Washington goes .227/.238/391.

8/10 DFS GPP Plays

Mike Soroka, ATL at MIA

DK ($9,100)   FD ($8,100) 

Miami’s bats roll over for Soroka almost as easily as my cat rolls over for treats. In 15 innings against Soroka this season, the Marlins have batted .115 with six hits and one earned run against the breakout righty. Soroka continues to be downright stingy when it comes to allowing fly balls, limiting opponents to a paltry 23.6% rate. With that kind of infrequency, it’s easy to see why Soroka has allowed just seven homers this season. He’s more miserly on the road, allowing a OBA of .197 in 12 starts outside the ATL and should be in line for another start in which his infielders stay fairly busy (54.6% ground ball rate).Since this is a family site, I’ll just say the Marlins offense stinks. Not my first choice of description, but rules. Miami is tied for last in OPS+ (78) and have hit a composite .235/.288/.399 since the All-Star Break. In a year of graphic power displays across the league, the Marlins remain the only team in the Majors without at least 100 homers. You can’t use Marlins Park as too much of an excuse; you could put Miami’s lineup in Yankee Stadium and they’d still struggle.

Kenta Maeda, LA vs. ARI

DK ($7,000)   FD ($7,700)

He’s pitching at home, which is why it can be considered safe to start Maeda, who has a 3.17 ERA and a .181 OBA at Dodger Stadium. Maeda also gets bonus points for his work against the Diamondbacks this season, holding Arizona’s bats to a .175 OBA. Home runs, which weren’t an issue in 2018, have reared their ugly head this year with Maeda allowing 1.40 HR/9. That’s due in part to a rise in his fly ball rate, which has gone to 39.1%, almost near the levels that got him in homer purgatory in 2017. Being at home should also further suppress Maeda’s 29.6 hard contact rate. Although the Diamondbacks have been solid in making contact this season, again, the pleasure of being in Dodger Stadium, where he strikes more than a batter per inning, works in Maeda’s favor.

8/10 DFS Punt Plays

Aaron Sanchez, HOU at BAL

DK ($6,900)   FD ($8,200) 

Who else but Sanchez to highlight the punt play? If you saw his 10-strikeout, no-walk effort in his last start with the Blue Jays, last Saturday’s six innings of no-hit ball against the Mariners as part of a combined no-no could have been seen coming (somewhat). Granted, no one expected the no-hitter, but Sanchez had been quietly regaining his control. He enters this evening’s start having gone five straight starts with two walks or fewer and with the Astros bullpen far more reliable than what he had in Toronto, Sanchez can air it out for 5-6 innings with limited damage before hitting the showers. His fastball was more pronounced in his first Houston start, making him yet another apt pupil from Astros pitching coach Brent Strom.

 

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On this 7/30 MLB DFS Pitching slate, we have a guy who may get traded before he gets a chance to start and two unreliable SPs who may show off their better form because of matchups.

Noah Syndergaard @ Chicago White Sox

DraftKings – $10,300, FanDuel – $10,600

After a very rough start to the season Syndergaard seems to have turned a corner. Since the All Star break, Syndergaard has posted a 2.57 ERA and a 10.71 K/9. We all know the deal with the White Sox and how much they strike out and I’m all over Syndergaard here as a 7/30 MLB DFS Pitching pick. With trade rumors swirling around, there’s a chance we don’t see him even pitch in this one. If by some chance he gets traded or they decide to hold him out for this one, I will endorse Marcus Stroman, who may pick up the start, just as much as Syndergaard.

Jake Odorizzi @ Miami Marlins

DraftKings – $9,400, FanDuel – $7,300

Odorizzi got off to a very unexpected first half, but since then he has struggled. Post All star Break he has posted a 8.16 ERA and only a 7.53 K/9. So why should we play him? Odorizzi is traveling to Miami, an insanely pitcher friendly park. The only trouble he has gotten into this season is against left handed bats (.292 BAA), he has handled right handed bats very well (.178 BAA). Miami leans very right handed heavy and I think this is a get right spot for Odorizzi in 7/30 MLB DFS Pitching. This would be my GPP play here as we try and get off some Syndergaard chalk I’m expecting. I will say this price on Odorizzi on FanDuel is ridiculous.

Reynaldo Lopez vs New York Mets

DraftKings – $7,700, FanDuel – $9,200

The Mets are in the midst of selling, or buying, or who even knows really. This team is a mess from the owners all the way down to the players. A very underwhelming season coupling with what most expect to be, a shakeup of this team is coming. Lopez is another pitcher who has turned a corner since the break. He has a staggering 1.71 ERA and a 10.71 K/9. He has been straight up phenomenal. The Mets do strike out a good bit and the offense right now isn’t really scary outside of Conforto and Alonso. I love Lopez here as a mid priced value in 7/30 MLB DFS Pitching.

Justin Verlander @ Cleveland Indians 

DraftKings – $11,400, FanDuel- $11,500

We know what we’re getting here with Verlander, he has been dominant this season. He holds a 10.89 K/9 on the road with a 3.01 ERA. He heads to Cleveland to face an Indians squad that is getting a little hot, but is nothing Verlander can’t handle. Verlander is the top arm on the 7/30 MLB DFS Pitching slate and I expect him to perform as such.

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This report will provide recommended DFS stack options for today’s 14-game main slate. I will also include my favorite pitching picks.

**All plays are listed in order of preference. Please check back between 5-6 PM EST as some players can receive rest days or get limited at bats especially as we get closer to the postseason. Make sure you are watching the weather as well.

Daily Fantasy Stack: Minnesota Twins

vs. RHP Dylan Cease (CWS): 5.30 Runs

**Moderate Risk

Dylan Cease is newer to the rotation, coming up for his first start right after the All-Star break. He has struggled with the long ball so far, allowing at least one home run in each of his three starts. He has given up three or more runs to each team he has faced and the teams that he has faced (DET, KCR, and TBR) aren’t exactly the most potent offenses. He carries a 6.19 ERA, 5.41 FIP, and 4.98 SIERA to start off his career in the bigs. The Twins are red hot, slashing to a .346 wOBA, .200 ISO, and 115 WRC+ against righties over the last two weeks. They have scored seven or more runs in each of their last five games.

Preferred Stack: Jorge Polanco ($3500 FD|$4500 DK), Nelson Cruz ($4200 FD|$4900 DK), Eddie Rosario ($4100 FD|$4800 DK), and Miguel Sano ($3600 FD|$4800 DK). Differentiate with Jason Castro ($2700 FD|$3900 DK) Luis Arraez ($2900 FD|$4000 DK).

Daily Fantasy Stack: New York Yankees

vs. RHP Andrew Cashner (BOS): 5.80 Runs

**Low Risk

I rarely find it necessary to go with the presumed chalk on a slate of this size, but I will have plenty of exposure to the Yankees given all the value we have at pitcher today. Andrew Cashner carries a 4.19 ERA, 4.65 FIP, and 5.02 SIERA. He has had a pretty good year for his standards, but regression reared it’s ugly head in his last start and I think he continues to sink tonight. Despite his success, he has struggled with right handed batters. They are slashing to a .350 wOBA, .519 SLG, and .327 OBP. He has allowed 36 earned runs and 13 home runs over 54 innings pitched to them. New York Yankees batters are slashing to a .344 wOBA, .187 ISO, and 114 WRC+ against right handed pitching recently. If you’re looking for a value stack, this is not the place.

Preferred Plays: Gleyber Torres ($4000 FD|$4900 DK), Edwin Encarnacion ($4500 FD|$5500 DK), Aaron Judge ($4700 FD|$5500 DK), DJ Lemahieu ($4200 FD|$5400 DK) and Didi Gregorius ($3700 FD|$5100 DK). I also love Mike Tauchman ($3000 FD|$4800 DK) for value. Cameron Maybin ($2500 FD|$3700 DK) will mostly go overlooked I would imagine. He’s a nice way to differentiate in large field tourneys if you’re playing multiple lines.

Daily Fantasy Stack: Los Angeles Dodgers

vs. RHP Anibal Sanchez (WSH): 5.45 Runs

**Low Risk

Anibal Sanchez provides us a weakness against left handed power and that isn’t going pan out well for him against the Dodgers this evening. The Dodgers have been mashing right handed batting over the last two weeks, slashing to a massive .399 wOBA, .306 ISO, and 152 WRC+. These are averages that simply cannot not be ignored. Anibal struggles quite a bit to left handed batting, allowing them to slash to a .342 wOBA, .494 SLG, and .338 OBP. He has allowed 23 earned runs and nine home runs over 38.2 innings pitched against them. Anibal Sanchez’s xFIP of 5.20 suggests he is due further regression. I believe the Dodgers obliterate this guy.

Preferred Plays: Max Muncy ($4100 FD|$5100 DK), Joc Pederson ($3600 FD|$4700 DK), Cody Bellinger ($4700 FD|$5600 DK), and Alex Verdugo ($2900 FD|$4000 DK).

Honorable Mention

Daily Fantasy Stack: New York Mets

vs. RHP Dario Agrazal (PIT): 5.25 Runs

**Moderate Risk

Preferred Plays: Pete Alonso ($4100 FD|$5000 DK), Michael Conforto ($3500 FD|$4400 DK), and Jeff McNeil ($4300 FD|$5700 DK). Dominic Smith ($2300 FD|$4300 DK) and Robinson Cano ($2700 FD|$3900 DK) for value.

Pitching

  1. Zack Greinke RHP (ARI): 3.20 Runs
  2. Griffin Canning RHP (LAA): 3.75 Runs
  3. Joey Lucchessi RHP (SDP): 3.50 Runs

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Scott Engel and Jason Mezrahi get into the full MLB schedule on the 7/24 MLB DFS Podcast. There are different slates to consider today and all games are covered. It won’t be easy to find quality pitching in the early games.

Main Night Slate Pitching Decisions

Shane Bieber and Marcus Stroman face off in the featured pitching matchup of the night. Noah Syndergaard and Patrick Corbin are also worth strong consideration. Who should you choose?. Don’t worry, we’ve got you covered, just listen to the 7/24 MLB DFS Podcast below.

7/24 MLB DFS Value Selections

Julio Teheran pops out as a prime value selection on any site. The guys also discuss Adam Wainright and their favorite stacks. Scott and Jason help you save some salary on the 7/24 MLB DFS Podcast/

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