NHL DFS

This article will focus on NHL Daily Fantasy picks for both FanDuel and DraftKings. Using advanced hockey metrics, slate analysis, and line by line evaluation, this article will point you towards what we think are the best plays for the night! Good luck!

Friday 11/19 NHL Breakdown

What is the NHL doing? One day we have 11 games, and then next we have 2. It makes it a little tougher to manage when the schedule is like this, and it would be nice for the schedule to be more spread out. Hopefully, that happens when we get to the new year and through the holidays. Tonight is a 2 game slate, and because of that, we will break down each game. Don’t forget, we have a late start tonight, as the slate starts at 10pm Eastern.

On a two game slate, it is important to get creative. There is no real ‘wrong’ way to play tonight, as the options are of course very limited. It isn’t out of the question to play a couple different looks of the same line, and if you so choose, you can play a tight pool of players with small variations. At the same time, it is also important to not overthink it. The best plays are the best plays for a reason, so don’t shy away from them.

From a goalie standpoint, it is totally okay to just correlate your goalies with your stacks. You are basically saying that the team you are playing is going to win, so that correlation is fine. Of course, if you prefer to play your favorite goalie, just make sure that you don’t stack against him, because that could limit the upside of your lineup altogether.

Tonight’s slate, based on the Vegas totals, could be a high scoring slate, so we have to find as much scoring as possible to keep up.

Game 1: Colorado Avalanche @ Seattle Kraken

Vegas: COL (-158) total 3.4, SEA (+130) total 2.8; O/U 6

Overview: The Avalanche come into this game as heavy favorites, and rightfully so. The Kraken have been struggling of late, losing their last five consecutive games. Tonight’s matchup is not making this run any easier, and Colorado could very well destroy them tonight. Over that stretch of the last 5 games, the Kraken have given up 4.8 goals per game. Colorado, in their last five, have scored 4.6 goals per game, even without Nathan MacKinnon, who has been hurt. Colorado should be heavy chalk tonight (and for good reason), especially Nazem Kadri with Gabriel Landeskog and Mikko Rantanen, especially as people chase them after their last game.

Goalies

Phillipp Grubauer (Seattle Kraken): Grub has been having a really rough go of it this season, and tonight looks to be a challenge as well. Sporting a bloated 3.18 GAA and rough .877 SV% so far this year, he has been even worse over his last five, with a 4.09 GAA. Grubauer is a tough sell tonight against a team who has the scoring power to dominate this game. Even if Driedger gets the start tonight, this play feels too risky.

Darcy Kuemper (Colorado Avalanche): Darcy has been having a very good season so far, sporting a 2.56 GAA and .916 SV% this season. As a heavy favorite, he should be chalky, and it makes a ton of sense. The shot upside might be limited here, so if he fits in your lineups, then go for it. Overall, he might not be the best play, but he should be the safest.

Lines to Play

Colorado Power Play – Gabriel Landeskog/Mikko Rantanen/Andre Burakovsky/Cale Makar: The best part about playing the power play is that it gets you access to multiple lines. Burakovsky plays on the second line, and tonight should be a good spot for this entire unit, even strength or not.

Colorado 2 – Valeri Nichushkin/Nazem Kadri/Andre Burakovsky: The second line can be played straight up tonight, as they face the depth lines for Seattle. However, it seems the way that Seattle has been playing, it doesn’t really matter the matchup. Samuel Girard and Devon Toews are good D-men that correlate with this line.

Seattle 1 – Jaden Schwartz/Alexander Wennberg/Jordan Eberle/Mark Giordano: IF you want to get different and play the other side of this game, this is the play. The top line for Seattle doesn’t have a specific matchup, based on their line matching patterns. This gives them a slight advantage over the depth lines when they match up against them.

Value Options:

Nicolas Aube-Kubel -W (COL): NAK is a great option for value, as he slots into the top power play

Logan O’Connor – W (COL): Slotting into the top line, he is good value to potentially luck into a couple of points

Marcus Johansson/Joonas Donskoi (SEA): Each of these guys play on the top power play for Seattle, so they correlate well with the top line

Erik Johnson – D (COL): About 20 minutes per night, and gets you shots and blocks; not the prettiest play, but should make you different

Vince Dunn – D (SEA): He has been very inconsistent throughout his career so far, but 20 minutes per game and some time on the power play means he could be a fine value D man

Game 2: Winnipeg Jets @ Vancouver Canucks

Vegas: WPG (-121) total 3.1, VAN (+100) total 3.1; O/U 6

Overview: This game is definitely very interesting, and not nearly as clear cut as the Colorado game. Winnipeg has been playing well recently, taking Edmonton to a shootout last night, and winning three of their last five games. Since they are on a traveling back to back, this makes Vancouver a little intriguing tonight. However, Vancouver has been playing somewhat poorly recently, giving up a whopping 5.2 goals against per game in their last five. It really could go either way tonight, and depending on if Hellebuyck (see goalie notes) actually starts, this could be a game stack situation. Something to note, these two teams have the two worst penalty kills in the league.

Goalies

Thatcher Demko (Vancouver Canucks): Demko is slated to start tonight, and he is in a good spot for shot upside and a potential upset win. However, his recent games have been poor. Over his last five, he is sporting a 3.94 GAA, up from his season-long GAA of 3.31. His team has not helped him, as they are surrendering 11.41 high danger chances against per 60 on the season so far. He was looking pretty good in the very early part of the season, but when you are faced with that many chances night after night, it is tough to keep it up. He is an intriguing deeper GPP option, and you hope you catch him in positive regression against a team that could be tired.

Connor Hellebuyck (Winnipeg Jets): We likely won’t know the official starters until way later, near lock, so make sure you keep an eye on who starts. If Hellebuyck starts in a back-to-back, he has a good win potential tonight, and should be middle of the road when it comes to shot volume. Though he hasn’t played a lot this season, if Eric Comrie gets the nod, then he is a solid play that can be considered, but Helle is the preferred play tonight if he goes.

Lines to Play

Winnipeg 2 – Kyle Connor/Pierre-Luc Dubois/Blake Wheeler: The even strength matchup for this line looks very, very good, as they should get the likes of the Elias Pettersson line for most of the game tonight. That line is giving up 12.13 high danger chances per 60, and in a small-ish sample, this line generates 20.2 high danger chances per 60. If you really want to limit your exposure, you can drop Dubois and play a Connor/Wheeler mini, but this whole line is in a good spot.

Winnipeg Power Play – Andrew Copp/Kyle Connor/Nikolaj Ehlers/Neal Pionk: As mentioned above, the penalty kill units in this game are the two worst in the league, so this unit will have ample opportunity tonight. The Canucks happen to be the worst team at killing penalties, and they are also spending 5.27 mins/G on the penalty kill, which is high enough to want some of this unit.

Vancouver 1 -Tanner Pearson/Bo Horvat/Nils Hoglander: This top line should match up against the Mark Scheifele line tonight, in a very nice looking matchup. The Scheifele line is surrendering 2.91 expected goals against, 40.18 scoring chances against, and 14.61 high danger chances against, all per 60 minutes. This line is producing 3.14 expected goals, 44.28 scoring chances, and 14.2 high danger chances per 60, which puts them in a fantastic matchup at even strength tonight. The concern with this line is that their production has been lackluster, so will they actually capitalize on those chances? Oliver Ekman-Larsson is a good correlating defender to pair with this line.

Vancouver Power Play – Brock Boeser/Bo Horvat/Elias Pettersson/J.T. Miller/Quinn Hughes: This unit gets to go against the 31st ranked penalty kill tonight, and playing this unit gets you access to the top two lines, which is a good thing, especially on a two game slate. It will make you different. With the Winnipeg PK struggling, this could be different enough with upside to get you there.

Value Options

Riley Nash – W (WPG): He is listed on the top power play, and provides a ton of salary relief if needed

Andrew Copp -W (WPG): Top power play AND top line winger, getting good minutes in an upside spot

Tucker Poolman – D (VAN): The “off D man”, meaning he is the D man opposite OEL tonight. He still gets top pair minutes at a huge discount and playing “off D men” is one way you can get unique with your lineup.

Tyler Myers – D (VAN): He logs about 20 minutes per game and fills up the “fringe stats” like shot blocking and shots on goal

Cash Considerations – DraftKings

None – cash is not recommended tonight!

Cash Considerations – FanDuel

None – cash is not recommended tonight!

Make sure to hop in our Expert Discord Chat for FREE! Jon and the NHL team will be there answering questions right up until lock! Be sure to be on the look out for future articles at https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-hockey/

All line combinations are courtesy of www.dailyfaceoff.com, and the advanced rates referenced in the above article are pulled from www.naturalstattrick.com.

This article will focus on NHL Daily Fantasy picks for both FanDuel and DraftKings. Using advanced hockey metrics, slate analysis, and line by line evaluation, this article will point you towards what we think are the best plays for the night! Good luck!

Friday 11/12 NHL Breakdown

Hey everyone, and welcome back to another Friday Forecheck! Tonight, we will break down the five game NHL slate for you. It has a lot of big names on it, and some other interesting places to go, so let’s get right into it! Good luck!

Goalies

Jack Campbell – Toronto Maple Leafs: The Leafs have a home matchup tonight against the Calgary Flames, who have been firing off shots to the tune of 35.15 per game this year. This sets up Campbell to have some nice upside tonight, and as a favorite, that is what we like to see. He will likely give up a couple of goals, but the DK save bonus is squarely in play here.

Frederik Andersen – Carolina Hurricanes: Freddie is a heavy favorite at home against the Flyers tonight, and there is definitely some upside here as well. Philly has struggled a bit on the road from a scoring perspective, potting only 2.2 goals per game in their five road games. Carolina has some excellent puck possession numbers at home over their last five, so this should be a good spot for a Freddie win.

Bonus GPP Goalie Pick – Carter Hart – Philadelphia Flyers: On the other side of the Carolina game, the Hurricanes shoot the puck a ton, and Hart has been on his game. This is a prime spot for a high shot volume upside, and if he can steal a win, that’s an even nicer bonus. Joonas Korpisalo can be considered here for a similar spot, but he carries even more risk.

Lines to Build Around

These lines are considered top plays for the night and can be considered the focal point of your builds. They will be listed by position in the following order: Center/Winger/Winger/Correlating Defenseman (if applicable).

Edmonton Oilers 1 – Connor McDavid/Zach Hyman/Jesse Puljujarvi/Tyson Barrie: Talk about opportunity…this line has a date tonight with the third line for the Buffalo Sabres. That third line is giving up a whopping 5.05 goals against per 60, 10.1 high danger chances against per 60, and 3.03 high danger goals against per 60 in a 59 minute sample size. This top line produces 17.05 high danger chances per 60 and 2.13 high danger goals per 60. This line has been one of the hottest in the league, and there is no way we are going to overlook them tonight. Consider adding Leon Draisaitl with Connor McDavid, as the two have been lethal this season.

Toronto Maple Leafs 1 – Auston Matthews/Michael Bunting/William Nylander/Morgan Rielly: The Leafs have a nice home matchup tonight against the Calgary Flames, and if John Tavares is out, this line will need to be relied on for scoring. You can also consider a power play stack here, but the top line should see the depth lines for the Flames tonight in a good spot.

Washington Capitals 1 – Evgeny Kuznetsov/Alex Ovechkin/Tom Wilson/John Carlson: The Capitals tonight have a great matchup against the Columbus Blue Jackets, and specifically, this top line against the second line. Columbus has been matching their top line to the opposing second line, and their second line to the opposing top line. That second line is allowing 16 high danger chances per 60, while this line produces 11.69. Keep in mind that this is a small sample, but the opportunity should be there for Ovi to continue to climb up the all-time scoring ranks tonight.

High Risk Lines

These are plays that carry significantly more risk, but could pay off at low ownership. They will be listed by position in the following order: Center/Winger/Winger/Correlating Defenseman (if applicable).

Carolina Hurricanes 1 – Sebastian Aho/Andrei Svechnikov/Teuvo Teravainen/Tony DeAngelo: As mentioned above, the Canes have a nice looking home matchup tonight against the Flyers. This line should see a majority of the depth lines this evening, putting them in a nice upside matchup.

Calgary Flames 2 – Sean Monahan/Blake Coleman/Andrew Mangiapane: The Flames have a tough matchup tonight against the Leafs on the road, but this line is great for value. In a high event matchup, they should have some good opportunities and could go very overlooked tonight.

Philadelphia Flyers 2 – Derick Brassard/Oskar Lindblom/Cam Atkinson/Ivan Provorov: The Flyers second line has a date with the top six for Carolina tonight, and they have some decent upside. With Lindblom coming up to this line, Joel Farabee has been moved to the third line. Farabee still plays on the second power play, though, so he can be used in this stack if you want a slightly different look.

Honorable mentions: CBJ2, CHI1, BUF1, PHI1

Value Options – DraftKings

Center: Sean Monahan ($3000) – Calgary Flames – 3k flat for a second line center that also centers the top power play unit is a fantastic value, and Monahan can be used tonight for salary relief. It also helps that he is part of the CGY2 stack that we like.

Wing: Jakub Voracek ($3700) – Columbus Blue Jackets -Jake is a top line winger and also spends time on the power play, so $3700 is a good price for the potential.

Defense: Jake Bean ($2700) – Columbus Blue Jackets – Bean is a top pair D man who has been averaging around 22 minutes per game and generally fills up the fringe stats. The downside is that he does not play any time on the power play, but that price is nice for someone who can likely get you 2-3x value.

Value Options – FanDuel

Center: Derick Brassard ($3700) – Philadelphia Flyers – Brassard is a nice price on FanDuel tonight, and with the opportunity he has, it is a good spot to go if you need some value.

Wing: Gustav Nyquist ($3500) – Columbus Blue Jackets – The second line for the Jackets is a nice looking one, and for a measly $3500, you can definitely take a chance on Gus tonight.

Defense: Dmitry Orlov ($3600) – Washington Capitals – Orlov averages about 20 minutes per game and contributes in ways such as shots and shot blocking. If you can luck into an assist or goal from him, that’s even better.

Cash Considerations – DraftKings

Leon Draisaitl – C – Edmonton Oilers

Alex Ovechkin – W – Washington Capitals

Tyson Barrie – D – Edmonton Oilers

Frederik Andersen – G – Carolina Hurricanes

Cash Considerations – FanDuel

Leon Draisaitl – C – Edmonton Oilers

Alex Ovechkin – W – Washington Capitals

Tyson Barrie – D – Edmonton Oilers

Frederik Andersen – G – Carolina Hurricanes

Make sure to hop in our Expert Discord Chat for FREE! Jon and the NHL team will be there answering questions right up until lock! Be sure to be on the look out for future articles at https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-hockey/

All line combinations are courtesy of www.dailyfaceoff.com, and the advanced rates referenced in the above article are pulled from www.naturalstattrick.com.