Tony “Jigsaw” Cutillo breaks down his Favorite Props for Thursday Night Football on the Plus Money Prop Train! #thursdaynightfootball #nflbetting #nflpredictions
Tony Cutillo has been covering and playing Fantasy Football for 25+ years. Not only is it his passion, it’s his job. This passion has allowed me to be featured on networks like VSIN, SiriusXM, NBC, CBS, and various nationwide radio stations. He will be using his experience, unique logic, and unrivaled energy to help you win your league!
As the NFL season kicks off Thursday night with a much-anticipated rematch of last year’s AFC Championship Game between the Baltimore Ravens and the Kansas City Chiefs, the spotlight is not only on Patrick Mahomes and his quest for a fourth Super Bowl victory but also on the millions of Americans engaging in sports betting. The start of the NFL season coincides with the busiest time of year for the sports betting industry, a game-within-the-game that has seen explosive growth since the 2018 US Supreme Court decision that legalized sports betting across the country.
Since that landmark decision, over $300 billion has been wagered on sports, with $120 billion in 2023 alone—a figure that 2024 is set to surpass. The NFL season is widely considered the marquee event for sports betting in the United States, with more than 70 million Americans expected to participate this year. As of now, 38 states and the District of Columbia have legalized sports betting, with most wagers placed via smartphone apps operated by industry giants like DraftKings and FanDuel.
Despite the rapid expansion of legal sports gambling (LSG), questions about its financial and social impacts are surfacing, particularly with the release of new studies examining the consequences of widespread, app-based betting. These studies challenge the idea that legalized sports betting is a safer, more regulated alternative to illegal gambling.
New research is shedding light on the financial consequences of LSG, especially in the context of mobile and online betting. One key study, The Financial Consequences of Legalized Sports Gambling by Brett Hollenbeck, Poet Larsen, and Davide Proserpio, analyzed the financial health of seven million individuals in states with legal mobile sports betting. Their findings revealed that:
These figures indicate a significant link between online access to sports betting and a rise in financial distress. The study also noted that lenders proactively reduced credit card limits to minimize their exposure to the financial risks posed by LSG.
Another study, Gambling Away Stability, observed that for every $1 bet on sports, net investment into traditional brokerage accounts decreased by more than $2, with financially constrained households depositing a larger portion of their income into betting. These studies highlight the disproportionate burden that LSG places on low-income and young male bettors, making it even harder for these groups to build wealth and maintain financial stability.
While LSG was initially pitched as a way to combat illegal gambling and generate state revenue, the social costs are becoming increasingly evident. The studies underscore how online sports betting, in particular, makes it easier for individuals to gamble without accountability. The absence of interpersonal scrutiny and the ease with which bettors can top up accounts via smartphones make it harder for gamblers to track their losses until it’s too late.
Digital platforms also intensify these effects. One interviewee shared how they found it difficult to sit through family events without sneaking off to place bets, even resorting to placing wagers while in the shower. The barrage of advertisements, promos, and free plays from betting companies keeps customers engaged, while mobile betting apps offer frictionless access, amplifying the financial strain on bettors.
With 38 states already embracing LSG, more are likely to follow, despite the rising evidence of its negative consequences. The financial benefits to states may not be as significant as initially thought. For instance, while New York expects to generate $2 billion from gambling revenues for education over two years, this pales in comparison to the state’s $30 billion annual spending on public schools.
States like New Jersey, Connecticut, and Massachusetts are already investing more in problem gambling services, with New York lagging behind at just $0.50 per resident. As more data becomes available, it’s clear that while LSG may provide a revenue boost, the social and financial costs—especially for vulnerable groups—are still coming into focus.
As NFL fans place their bets this season, it’s important to recognize the hidden costs of legal sports betting. The ease of access through mobile apps makes it particularly dangerous for young men and financially constrained households, while the broader societal impacts continue to unfold. Though sports betting has created new opportunities for revenue, the financial well-being of millions of Americans may be at risk without stronger regulation and consumer protections.
For those struggling with problem gambling, help is available. In the US, contact the National Council on Problem Gambling at 800-GAMBLER or text 800GAM. In the UK, support is available via the NHS National Problem Gambling Clinic on 020 7381 7722 or GamCare on 0808 8020 133. In Australia, Gambling Help Online is available on 1800 858 858.
Week 2 of the NFL season wraps up tonight with Monday Night Football. And how lucky am I to be able to breakdown the showdown slate of the team I’m most familiar with as the Falcons travel to Philly to take on the Eagles in primetime. In a scheduling oddity, this will be the 3rd season in a row that Kirk Cousins plays in Philadelphia on MNF in Week 2. Simply put, even without AJ Brown, I expect there to be points scored tonight down on Pattison Ave. So let’s dig in and see what areas to exploit and how to win some money in the DFS Showdown market. In this article, I’ll share my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.
For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.
Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/
Note on Quarterbacks:
I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article.
We’ve all been waiting for over a year for the Falcons to unleash the beast. After drafting RB Bijan Robinson in the top 10 of the 2023 draft, he was criminally underused in Arthur Smith’s system last year. And while he didn’t explode in Week 1 of this year, Bijan did get 23 touches in his first game under the Raheem Morris regime. Even better news was that Robinson received 89% of the snaps as backup RB Tyler Allgier saw just 3 touches and 18% snap count.
The better news is that the Falcons face an Eagles defense that looked similar to last season’s version against the run, POUROUS! In 2023, the Eagles ended up 22nd in rush defense DVOA. But they allowed the 10th lowest yards on the ground. Why the gap in numbers? That was because they were historically bad against the pass and teams ran the ball at the 5th lowest rate in the league against Philly. So, it masked their real inefficiency upfront.
This season, the Eagles invested in the defensive backfield to improve the horrendous pass D. And while that looked better in Week 1, it showed the gaps upfront as Green Bay ran for 163 yards on just 21 carries. PFF ranked the Eagles 28th run defense and they earned the 30th ranked rush defense in DVOA. For those reasons, as well as a new LB corps, I expect the Eagles to struggle against the run early in the season.
Bijan could be in line for a career high number tonight as long as the Falcons commit and stick with the run.
Tier 1: Bijan Robinson
Tier 2: None
There are a few concerning signs with the Falcons passing offense coming out of Week 1. The first is the overall health of newly signed QB Kirk Cousins. He looked immobile and was inaccurate in his return from a torn Achilles tendon. The other concern was the offensive line, as it was attacked and exposed by an aggressive Steeler defensive front. The Falcons OL was assigned a pass block grading of 44.3 for that game, which was 2nd worst in the league.
As highlighted in the RB section above, the Eagles invested heavily in their defensive backfield in the offseason. They resigned CB Avonte Maddox and used two early draft picks on highly regarded DB’s Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean. The Birds are also banking on CB Isiah Rogers making an impact, Rogers was suspended for the entire 2023 season for gambling but was ranked as a top 20 defensive back the season prior.
Last week, the Packers were able to get big chunks in the passing game due to some defensive breakdowns. This happened mainly with their inside WR’s, namely Jayden Reed. Darius Slay was solid in coverage grading out as the 19th best DB in Week 1. But Avonte Maddox was attacked and exposed as he ended up 89th in DB ranking according to PFF. I’ll look to get Atlanta’s slot receivers involved tonight and play Drake London much lighter than most due to his matchup with Slay.
Of note, Ray-Ray McCloud led the team in targets (6) and had 27.3% of the overall targets to pass catchers.
Tier 1: Darnell Mooney
Tier 2: Drake London, Ray-Ray McCloud
Punts:
The Eagles historically stink against TE’s. Green Bay did not expose that in Week 1 as they got just two catches out of their Tight Ends against Philly. That was primarily because of the Eagles new LB Zack Baun who had 15 tackles and ranked in the top 10 in coverage in Week 1. However, the Eagles other LB, Nakobe Dean, ranked 74th out of 75 LB’s overall. So there’s opportunity to be had for Kyle Pitts tonight if the Falcons are able to use motion and get the right matchups. For that reason, I think Pitts is the best receiver to use tonight for Atlanta.
Tier 1: Kyle Pitts
Tier 2:
Punt/Fadeable:
There’s nobody in the league having a harder start to the season than NY Giants General Manager Joe Schoen. While giving QB Daniel Jones the bag looks to be a critical error. His handling of the Saquon Barkley situation could haunt this team for years to come. Barkley debuted in Eagles green in Week 1 and put up a career game, totaling 132 yards and scoring three touchdowns against the Packers. He also saw 80% of the snaps and collected 93% of the touches. Which just signifies he’s the featured back in Philly and has no worries about sharing the ball.
He’ll have a tougher job tonight as Atlanta employs a strong defensive front. While they allowed 137 rushing yards to the Steelers in Week 1, it was on 41 carries. Because of that, they rated #8 in run defense per PFF and #6 in rushing DVOA. This aligns well to last season as they ended 11th in rush defense DVOA and allowed just 4.0 yds/carry which was 9th best in the NFL.
I still like Saquon tonight as the Eagles O Line is a top 5 unit in football. They ranked 5th best in run blocking in Week 1 and will continue to get better as C Cam Jurgens eases into the role of taking over for legendary Jason Kelce.
Tier 1: Saquon Barkley
Tier 2: Will Shipley (Punt Play)
The big news for tonight is staring WR AJ Brown has been ruled out with a hamstring injury. This opens up potential for several Eagles WR’s to be the breakout player in tonight’s showdown. To me, this is the spot you have to win tonight in order to hit big in GPP’s.
If there was one major concern for the Falcons, it was the ability to pressure the QB. Atlanta has just 42 sacks in 2023 which was 22nd in the NFL. By drafting QB Michael Penix in the top 10, they passed on premium edge rush talent. Which forced them to make a move in the trade market. And they did so by making a deal with NE to acquire Matthew Judon. While Judon played well, it didn’t drastically change the issue. Atlanta ranked 31st in pass rush rate in Week 1.
On the other end, is a very good Eagles O Line. As we discussed above, this is top 5 unit in the league. Besides their propensity to open holes for RB’s, they also pass block very well as this unit ranked 2nd best in that category in Week 1.
So this looks like the biggest mismatch on paper. Meaning QB Jalen Hurts should have plenty of time to make good decisions and find the open receiver in Kellen Moore’s offense.
Jahan Dotson didn’t catch a ball in Week 1 but that will change this week. He’s had 9 days between games to further digest the offense. I’m looking for him to have a HUGE night in AJ Brown’s absence. New out of Philly is that rookie WR Johnny Wilson will get snaps tonight as WR3. Wilson is a big bodied receiver from FSU. His biggest flaw is he has big drops in big moments. But he could be a target in shorter fields, especially the endzone, so consider him as a cheap play tonight.
One longshot to also consider is WR Britian Covey. He returns kicks for the Eagles and keeps making the roster as a 5th WR. They like his speed, former track star, and could use him in some WR screen and jet sweep scenarios. Also, Wilson has a questionable tag so if he’s out this moves Covey into serious play.
Tier 1: DeVonta Smith, Jahan Dotson
Tier 2: Johnny Wilson
Dallas Goedert should be used more tonight as the Eagles will need to adjust their gameplan for life without Brown. Atlanta uses a 3-4 defense with two primary coverage LB’s in Kaden Elliss and Troy Anderson. Elliss graded the best but was ranked just 30th among LB’s in Week 1. Additionally, Steelers TE Pat Freiermuth was targeted four times in Week 1 and caught each one.
Tier 1: Dallas Goedert
FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—FNF Showdown
I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like Bijan Robinson, Saquon Barkley or Jalen Hurts. I’m passing on Kirk Cousins at the MVP position because of his lack of mobility versus an aggressive Eagles pass rush. Remember, you need the highest-scoring player, not the best value. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top.
On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. And in this case, that looks to be on the high price range side. Last night we saw Nico Collins as the best Captain and he was in the top 3 in salary. So I can see a scenario where we go after a top RB, or Hurts, as our CPT. One other option is to take an Eagles WR, instead of Barkley, at CPT as either Smith or Dotson could be the big winner tonight with the Falcons struggling in Week 1 in creating pass rush and thus exposing their DBs in coverage.
FanDuel MVP Tier 1: Bijan Robinson, Saquon Barkley
FDMVP Tier 2: Jalen Hurts, DeVonta Smith
FDMVP Tier 3: Kyle Pitts, Jahan Dotson
DraftKings CPT Tier 1: Bijan Robinson, Jalen Hurts
DK CPT Tier 2: Saquon Barkley, Jahan Dotson (salary relief)
DK CPT Tier 3: DeVonta Smith, Kyle Pitts, Darnell Mooney
DK CPT Punt: Ray-Ray McCloud, Dallas Goedert
Flex Rankings Tier 1:
Flex Rankings Tier 2: (Don’t play more than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys)
Punts/Fadeable: (Don’t play unless desperate)
Best Rules for the slate:
Favorite prop for the game: Bijan Robinson over 64.5 rushing yards (-110 BET365) / Jalen Hurts over 1.5 passing TDs (+155 DK)
Now that you finished reading the MONDAY NIGHT SHOWDOWN article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.
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Week 1 of the NFL season continues with a bang as the Chicago Bears take on the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium. In this article, I’ll share my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.
For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.
Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/
Note on Quarterbacks:
I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article.
Running Back
Houston only gave up 48 yards and a TD in Week 1 to the Indianapolis Colts and a talented Jonathan Taylor. The clear number one back for the Bears is D’Andre Swift who they brought in during the offseason. He played in 70% of the Bear’s 56 offensive snaps with no other back having more than 20% of the snaps.
Despite playing the majority of snaps, Swift didn’t get to see many rushing attempts. He only had 10 attempts in his 39 snaps. With how bad the Bears looked in Week 1, I am not prioritizing any of their backs but the main one to target if you want one would be Swift. I can see the Bears using a bit more of Swift to ease the pressure on Caleb Williams as he didn’t look good against the Titans.
The only other two running backs that saw any work were Khalil Herbert and Travis Homer who each had two carries. I would not use either of them as they would need an injury to Swift or a huge run to have any value for fantasy.
Tier 1: D’Andre Swift
Tier 2: Khalil Herbert and Travis Homer
Wide Receiver
The Texans only gave up nine completions to Anthony Richardson, but those nine went for 212 yards and two touchdowns. The Texan secondary gave up a 60 and 54-yard touchdown pass in their first game.
The Bears have two wide receivers questionable for Week 2. Keenan Allen is dealing with a heel injury and rookie Rome Odunze has a knee injury. Both seem to be leaning toward playing on Sunday Night according to reports. Allen’s availability will be huge for the Bears in this game. If he plays he has a great fantasy matchup against Texan slot corner Jalen Pitre. Allen lined up as the slot WR 61% of the time against the Titans and finished with .4 FP/RR, meanwhile Pitre gave up the most FP/RR with .45 against the Colts. If Allen is healthy he is the best wide receiver option for the Bears.
I like DJ Moore, but he is projected to be shadowed by Derek Stingley for most of the game. Stingley gave up only .21 FP/RR and 13.4% targets/RR which is the lowest of any Texan CB.
The Bears had two other wide receivers who ran routes during Week 1. One of them was Velus Jones Jr. who had more touches as a running back (2) than a receiver (1). The other was DeAndre Carter who had two targets for 1 reception and six yards. Neither played more than 23% of the Bear’s snaps so unless Allen and Odunze get ruled out, I don’t think either is great for showdown.
Tier 1: Keenan Allen
Tier 2: DJ Moore and Rome Odunze
Punts/Fades: Velus Jones Jr. and DeAndre Carter
Tight End
The Texans held the Colt’s tight ends to no receptions on only two targets. While that looks like the Texans are amazing against tight ends, it feels more like a one-time thing as Richardson only threw 19 passes and relied on his legs during the game.
In Week 1 the Bears used three tight ends, but only two saw a target. Cole Kmet and Gerald Everett played at least 48% of the Bear’s snaps, and each saw a single target. While Everett saw seven more snaps than Kmet, I still prefer Kmet. He has been the Bear’s best tight end since 2021 seeing at least 90 targets in all but one season since becoming the starter. But at Everett’s price, he is still very much in play.
I want no Mercedes Lewis who was the third tight end as he saw no targets on his nine snaps.
Tier 1: Cole Kmet
Tier 2: Gerald Everett
Running Back
Chicago gave up 103 yards and a TD in Week 1 to the Tennessee Titans and the talented duo of Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. The clear number one back for the Texans is Joe Mixon who they brought in during the offseason. Mixon had a rushing attempt (30) on 53% of his snaps (57). The only other running back to take a handoff was Dameon Pierce who only had three attempts on nine snaps.
Mixon should have some success on Sunday Night against the Bear’s rush defense as they failed to stop Pollard and Spears throughout Week 1. With no other running back having the confidence of the HC based on Week 1, Mixon should be the running back for all the goal-line carries. He had five carries inside the opponents 10 yard line and scored on one of those rushing attempts.
Like the Chicago running backs, I don’t want much if any exposure to them as they can only be of value if Mixon goes down or they break off a huge run.
Tier 1: Joe Mixon
Tier 2: Dameon Pierce
Wide Receiver
The Bears on paper, looked great against receivers last week as Will Levis only completed 19 passes for 127 yards. The Bears secondary held Levis to a 59% completion percentage and picked him off twice including the pick-six that won them the game. The Texans receiving core and CJ Stroud are a huge step up in talent compared to what Chicago saw last week.
The CB/WR matchups for this game should be Stefon Diggs against Kyler Gordon, Nico Collins against Jaylon Johnson, and Tank Dell vs Tyrique Stevenson. All three matchups should be fun to watch as the game goes along, but the biggest one for me is the Collins/Johnson battle. Johnson didn’t allow a reception last week, meanwhile, Collins led the Texans with eight targets in Week 1.
My lean for favorite WR for the Texans is Tank Dell. Dell saw the third most percentage of snaps of the three Texan main receivers but still saw seven targets which was only behind Collins. He finished Week 1 with .44 fantasy points per route ran. He gets the most favorable matchup of the three as Stevenson, while winning Defensive Player of the Week, gave up the most targets and fantasy points per route run.
The only other two Texan receivers who saw the field were Robert Woods and Xavier Hutchinson. Both only played 12 snaps and of the two only Hutchinson saw any targets (2). Outside of a milly maker or one of the other 150max contests, I wouldn’t include even a player.
Tier 1: Tank Dell
Tier 2: Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs
Punt: Xavier Hutchinson and Robert Woods
Tight End
The Bears did a good job stopping the Titans two tight ends. Chig Okonkwo and Nick Vannett combined for four receptions and 26 yards, and Okonkwo scored a touchdown. But as I mentioned above with the wide receivers, the Texan’s offense is a stronger team than what the Bears saw with the Titans.
The main tight end for the Texans is Dalton Schultz. Schultz led the tight end room with 63 snaps played which was 80% of the Texans snaps. His backup Brevin Jordan played in 51% (40) of the snaps. My lead is of course Schultz since he is the main tight end but Jordan is in play as he saw only one less target than Schultz despite playing 23 fewer snaps. Also at Jordan’s price, he opens the door to get bigger named players.
The Texans had a third tight end that saw snaps in Week 1, Cade Stover. Stover is only a super punt play, but with his Ohio St connection with Stroud, he can maybe find his way onto the box score.
Tier 1: Dalton Schultz
Tier 2: Brevin Jordan
Punt: Cade Stover
FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—SNF Showdown
I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like a quarterback or a workhorse running back. You need the highest-scoring player, not the best value. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top.
On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range.
FanDuel
FanDuel MVP Tier 1: Joe Mixon, Tank Dell, CJ Stroud
FanDuel MVP Tier 2: Keenan Allen, Caleb Williams, Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs
FanDuel MVP Tier 3: DJ Moore, D’Andre Switft, Cole Kmet
DraftKings
DraftKings CPT Tier 1: Joe Mixon, Tank Dell, CJ Stroud
DraftKings CPT Tier 2: Keenan Allen, Caleb Williams, Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs
DraftKings CPT Tier 3: D’Andre Switft, DJ Moore
DraftKings CPT Punt: Cole Kmet
Flex Rankings Tier 1:
Flex Rankings Tier 2:
Punts/Fadeable:
Best Rules for the slate:
Favorite prop for the game: Joe Mixon Over 15.5 Receiving Yards (-110 DK)
Welcome to my NFL Daily Fantasy Sports guide for this Sunday’s games! In this article, I’ll walk you through my strategic approach for selecting top players and crafting optimal lineups to give you a winning edge in NFL DFS for 2024. I’ve thoroughly analyzed each game and position to highlight the best plays and explain the reasoning behind my selections.
*I’ll be updating this article on Sunday morning if there are any changes. Be sure to check back for the most current and accurate DFS plays.
Quarterback
Jared Goff
Jared Goff is this week’s Baker Mayfield, and Mayfield is going to have a front-row seat to witness it. In Week 1, The Tampa Bay Buccaneers didn’t show any sign of improving from last season as they are currently ranked 20th in DVOA against receivers. This is a Tampa secondary that allowed the 4th most receiving yards through the regular season in 2023 while only giving up 5 rushing TDs. Quite frankly they got bailed out last week going up against rookie Jaylen Daniels who attempted only 2 passes over 20+ yards, and 1 pass over 30+ yards. Goff and the boys should rip them apart in their first home game.
The starting slot corner for the Buccaneers, rookie Tykee Smith, is questionable. If he is out, then the Bucs have no one reliable (not that he was reliable) who can step in and cover the slot. Guess who runs out of the slot the most for the Lions? That would be Amon-Ra St. Brown (56.3% in Week 1). The Bucs are also down a safety and two backup corners. Starting left corner, Zion McCollum, returned to practice after leaving Week 1’s matchup with a concussion and will still need to clear protocol to be active. Veteran Jamal Dean man’s the right side of the field (82% in Week 1), and he gave up the most YPRC (1.28). He will see a mix of the Lions receivers, but mostly Jameson Williams (questionable) who is coming off a breakout game.
I do want Williams out there to help give me more confidence in playing Goff. If he is out I wouldn’t mind pivoting to Brock Purdy or a spend-up option like Lamar Jackson. If you find yourself without Goff, I still think you want one of his pass catchers – especially Amon-Ra St. Brown or Sam LaPorta.
Other top options:
Running Back
Derrick Henry
Thanks for the amazing value DraftKings! Henry comes in at only $6,700 in a matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders who just put J.K. Dobbins back on the map as he ripped off 135 rushing yards on only 10 carries. The combination of Dobbins and Gus Edwards put up the 9th most RB DraftKings points (29.7) in Week 1 with 21 carries. The Raiders are ranked 27th in Stuffed percentage. That isn’t going to go well against Henry who has made a career of running downhill and breaking tackles. I don’t need to rattle off Henry’s stats. We all know what he is capable of. His mid-tier salary is a gift from the fantasy Gods.
If you do decide to go a different route at RB, and fade Henry, you would be wise to get Lamar Jackson in your lineup. One of them is going to have a big, big day.
Los Angeles Chargers
The Panthers got destroyed again on the ground in Week 1. They allowed the second most fantasy points to be scored on them in the league. That’s more than the Broncos (Ken Walker + Zach Charbonnet), Dolphins (James Cook), Rams (Gibbs + Montgomery) and the Bills (De’Von Achane). All this production came from a combination of 5 different New Orleans Saints. Now they face an explosive, elusive back in J.K. Dobbins who just put up the second-most yards after contact (71) in Week 1. The YPC (13.5) for Dobbins is going to be hard to replicate, nonetheless, if he stays healthy, it is a fantastic matchup for him and the Chargers. Gus Edwards is going to be a tougher click, but one that should be highly considered. He is just as likely, if not more so to get the goal line carries. I don’t expect the yardage of Dobbins, but his getting in the endzone more wouldn’t be shocking. If I have to pick one, I won’t get cute with it. I will just take Dobbins again for the chunk play upside.
We also need to realize that the Chargers WR1, Joshua Palmer, is questionable making an already bad receiving core worse.
Jordan Mason
Is it hard to run on the Vikings? It appears so. Is it also hard to run on the Jets? On paper, it should have been much more difficult than the 49ers made it look. Jordan Mason is only $5,200 on DraftKings running behind a phenomenal offensive line. MIN is currently ranked 4th in DVOA against the run, which seems high. Last season they allowed 20.9 DK points per game to RBs, which was middle of the pack. In Week 1 they shut down the Giants run game but the NY Offense as a whole was in shambles. I will bet on the cheap price and talent of SF to at least do enough to exceed value for the discount RB.
Zach Charbonet note:
The Patriots held Zach Moss to fantasy irrelevancy in Week 1, but the running game script got away from the Bengals in a hurry. Charbonnet was very unproductive on the ground (1.5 yards per carry) against a terrible Broncos team. If Week 1 is any indicator, he will get his points in the passing game. He isn’t min-priced, but he is still cheap to roll out as an RB2 or RB3. The Pats did give up the 9th most receptions to backs in 2023 so he has that going for him.
Others to consider for GPP upside/ownership:
Wide Receiver
Cooper Kupp/Demarcus Robinson
He is coming off a league-leading 21 targets, largely due to Puka Nacua leaving the game early and the game script. This week the Rams take on the Arizona Cardinals. They are ranked 26th in DVOA against the WR1. Kupp will run out of the slot around 60% of the time against Garrett Williams. He will move to the left side of the field for about 26% of snaps against either Sean Murphy-Bunting (1.12 YPRC) or Starling Thomas (1.80 YPRC). On a volume-based approach, which is how you play DFS to a large extent, Kupp will lead the way for the Rams, and maybe the league again in Week 2.
If you are looking at who will have the most positive primary matchup of the game, it is Demarcus Robinson who should be on the left side of the field for around 45% of his snaps. He only costs $4,000 on DraftKings and is a fantastic salary saver. He is a priority if you fade Kupp.
Amon-Ra St. Brown
See Jared Goff’s write-up. He is my favorite receiver on the slate.
Brandon Aiyuk
We have established that the Vikings are perhaps above average against the run. All over the industry, there are conflicting rankings on how good they are against the run, depending on which site you visit. As far as the secondary goes I see the same thing. They played the Giants in Week 1, who are just terrible, so you can’t rely on those stats. I did notice that all three of the Viking’s starting corners ranked in the bottom 50 of YPRC in Week 1, which is not encouraging for their chances moving forward. Brandon Aiyuk is going to get the best on paper matchup against a mix of Shaquill Griffin, Byron Murphy Jr., and Stephon Gilmore. All three corners allowed over a 1.09 YPRC and over 10 air yards per target. Aiyuk has the highest projected target share on the 49ers while also having the second-highest yards-per-route run in Week 1, only behind Tyreek Hill. He is the best pivot off the 49er’s run game when the masses are likely to chase the Deebo game.
Ladd McConkey
This is more of a play if Joshua Palmer is out or limited. He should lead the Chargers in targets against a bad secondary in Carolina.
Others to consider/mix in MME
Tight End
Sam LaPorta
I have already made a case for Goff and the Detroit Lions offense, but I didn’t touch on the tight end. LaPorta gets one of the key matchups of the slate, along with Amon-Ra St. Brown. The Tampa defense is atrocious guarding tight ends. last season they allowed the third most fantasy points to the position (14.9). They gave up the third most receptions and the third most total yards. They were targeted at the highest rate in the league.
Theo Johnson
He is your tight-end salary saver this week. Last week spending down on the guys I wrote up was technically the way to go as every single tight end busted. If that happens again Theo Johnson can do essentially nothing and still be a quality play. But I do expect more than nothing. He played 86% of snaps last week while getting 4 targets. He takes on what could very easily be the worst pass defense in the league. Daniel Jones attempted 7 10+ yard passes, 2 20+ yard passes, and no passes over 30+ yards. This is the tight-end sweet spot, we just need Daniel Jones to show up somewhat in the easiest matchup he will have all season.
Taysom Hill
His price dropped to $3,900 this week. He is coming off 5 rushing attempts and two targets (one that should have been a touchdown). If you knew you were getting that small rushing floor with any tight end, wouldn’t you take it? If you knew they have Taysom RedZone packages wouldn’t you highly consider him? I think you have to when the offseason hype has died down a bit. The Saints steamrolled the Panthers so there was no real incentive to show everything they were capable of with HIll. This game should be much closer, and although the Cowboys have a good defense it is difficult to prepare for what Hill does. Just think about how we think about him as DFS players. We do not know how he is going to score but we know that he is a threat week in and week out. The Saints can disguise how they are going to get Hill the ball, and if he scores a rushing TD you are going to have to have him.
Others to consider:
Again, I will update this article if anything changes. Be sure to come back and check for the most up-to-date plays. I can already tell you I will be adding another running back in the morning.
Week 1 was just so-so. We went 2-2 on our four bets. On the bright side, we did nail the Jags as the Dolphins are all hype. But we put faith in Mr. Kohl’s who paid us back with one of the worst games of his career against the Pittsburgh Steelers. How is Atlanta feeling about that investment in Kirk Cousins now? Looked exactly like what they saw out of Ridder and Heinecke last year. As for Win Daily, we have so many tools available to get your lineups set and bring home some big wins. You’ll see our NFL pre-lock show tomorrow and the projections and lineup optimizers are available for all our members.
As for Survivor, week 1 was crash and burn as we laid an egg with the Bengals. But my pool allows a buy-back after week 1 so we turn the page and try to get back on the winning track in week 2. I will not fade the Pats this week!
The betting market is flooded with New York money this week. And it’s a wonder if they even watched football last week as the Giants ranked up there as the most disappointing team of the week after getting trounced by the Vikings to a tune of 28 to 6. While the Commanders didn’t fare well, allowing 392 yards to the Buccaneers, they at least had a pulse. As of this writing, 83% of the bets and 80% of the money is on the Giants making this a very public play.
Yes, I know the stats revolving around Giants QB Daniel Jones and his propensity to play well against Washington. He is 5-1-1 against the Commanders in his career and has a 10 to 3 touchdown to interception ratio. Comparably, he is 17-37 against the rest of the NFL. However, Jones was 0-4 against the Cowboys when Dan Quinn, the new Commanders HC, was the DC in Dallas. And in those contests, he averaged just 151 yds/game passing with a 1 to 3 touchdown to interception ratio. Yes, the Cowboys have a better D than Washington currently employs, but it does show Quinn knows how to attack Jones.
Also, the Commanders big weakness in Week 1 was their pass D as they allowed an 80% completion rate and 4 passing TD’s to Bucs QB Baker Mayfield. As we all know, the Giants offense doesn’t have that type of burst from their passing game. In fact, it’s ranked 30th in DVOA, trailing just the Browns and Panthers. I also like the matchup of Jayden Daniels dual threat attack versus the Giants. According to PFF, the Giants were rated last in rush defense last week as they especially disliked the LB play led by Bobby Okereke (55 snaps and recorded just 2 tackles). This is very notable as the RPO needs to be controlled by the DE’s and LB’s.
I missed on Washington in Week 1 but I’m going back to the well here. And hopefully doing it with an unbiased mind. The public is all over the Gmen. Which is always a reason to zig. But I also think the Giants will not be able to take full advantage of the Commanders weaknesses and they’ll also have challenges of their own to stop a powerful run game from the Commanders.
Raiders HC Antonio Pierce was a great story last season as he rallied the troops after the firing of Josh McDaniel. And because of his passionate leadership, he was hired as the permanent head coach in the offseason. So, there was plenty of good vibes around Vegas knowing Pierce was at the head of the spear. But those vibes may have disappeared in just one week as the Raiders HC made several head scratching calls, including a punt late in the game on 4th and short in Chargers territory. Which means the jury is out on Pierce and with every misstep and loss, the trade Davante Adams campaign will just get louder. Making each Raiders game must see TV.
But the real reason for backing the Ravens here is the fact that Baltimore is coming off a Thursday night game. And the Raiders are traveling due east and starting a game at 1pm EST. Speaking of the latter first, the Raiders are 0-7 since the start of the 2022 season on the road against teams east of the Mississippi River. That included a 30-12 loss last year to Chicago, who was starting QB Tyson Bagent. As for the Ravens playing on Thursday, they were able to endure 3 extra days of rest and are 5-0 since 2018 on the week’s following playing on Thursday night.
The Ravens let one get away in Kansas City and did not play their best football. Baltimore has extra rest and is playing a team that doesn’t play well on the east coast. Remember, Baltimore led the league in point differential last season and had nine wins by double digits. They know how to win big and have a very good opportunity to do so tomorrow against a Raiders team that looks to be in turmoil already.
We have a rematch of the NFC Divisional Round playoff game last season in which the Lions won 31-23. The big difference in that game was turnovers as the Lions won that battle 2-0.
Looking back at Week 1, the Lions were fortunate to come away with a victory as they needed OT to get past the Rams. Down south, the Bucs looked solid in their thumping of Washington. So simply from an eye test, and based on the close contest in the playoffs last year, these two teams look much closer than a 7.5 point spread.
The issue stems from Tampa’s health on defense. Especially in the secondary. They suffered four key injuries in Week 1:
That spells doom against a high-profile passing attack such as the Lions. I’m also concerned about the efficiency at which the Bucs can move the ball consistently. Tampa ranked 29th in rushing DVOA in week 1 and was 25th in rushing rank per PFF. Therefore, I’m siding with the Lions and for Detroit to get their first 2-0 start since the 2017 season.
The Bengals once again floundered in their season opener. This time to a gutty Patriots team. For all intensive purposes though, gutty or not, the Patriots were supposed to be one of the worst teams n football entering the season. And what was more concerning was the offensive output as they scored just 10 points.
So, there’s no wonder that just 19% of the money this week is on the Bengals as they travel to KC in Week 2. In my Yahoo pick-em pool, 79% of the picks are on the Chiefs at -6.
Which is the perfect opportunity to buy low on Cincy. Listen, they looked terrible in week 1. But the Bengals play the Chiefs tough. Burrow is 2-0 in his career in the regular season against Mahomes. And he’s 3-1 overall including playoffs.
The Bengals need WR Tee Higgins back and I’m not sure he’ll suit up. If he is able to go, this becomes a smash play. Otherwise, the Bengals will need to find ways to get the ball to Chase early and often.
The Chiefs are always a public team, and rightfully so. And the Bengals are at a low point in bettors eyes. But this looks like a great spot to fade the norm and back a team that is better than what they showed last week. I’ll take the points with a possible outright win by Cincy.
I don’t always want to take the biggest spread but the fact that the Ravens lost week 1 and aren’t happy with it makes me very happy to back them ATS and in survivor. Baltimore is not happy with how they played against KC and will look to take that out on Vegas. Plus, based on the reasons above, the Raiders have some serious disadvantages that will be too tough to overcome.
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