Who’s your Waiver Wire Priority this week? What’s your best BET to Win for TNF? Tony “Jigsaw” Cutillo dives into some players and bets that could pay off HUGE dividends down the stretch.
Week 3 is almost in the books and the Win Daily Sports Family has been smashing again in betting and DFS! It was a fun week that had a lot of questionable decisions by sports bettors that lost them a LOT of money. There were also some great decisions, like taking the Colts -12, that made people look very smart, considering how bad the Jets look. Curious where did the money go in week 3? We have you covered.
This one wasn’t quite in question, but it took a bit longer to get there than expected. The Steelers end up taking down the Texans who are now 0-3 on the season after playing what is probably the most difficult schedule so far.
The over finally hit with 6:24 left on the clock when James Conner rumbled his way in from 12 yards out. This play made the public very happy. With over 81% of the bets and 97% of the handle on the OVER, there was absolutely a collective sigh of relief.
This was a game that was bet around a bit. The line moved very quickly from the Steelers -6.5 to -4 and the total moved from 45 up to 46.5. Steelers covered and the over hit, but I’d be the first to say I didn’t think there would be that much action on this game.
With the Steelers defense looking the way it did, and the Texans offense looking like they could use a number one receiver, I found it interesting so much and so many people were on this game. Thankfully for the public, it all worked out.
Man oh man, what a bad beat! With the Eagles down 7 in the last 30 seconds of the game, Carson Wentz scrambles and dives for a touchdown tying it up 23 all. How perfect, all that needed to happen was for someone to score in OT and the OVER hits!
Over 87% of the Bets and 91% of the handle on the over were able to help drive this game from 45.5 to 47, a number that felt like it should hit. The Bengals offense has been looking good so far, their defense has not, and the Eagles defense hasn’t been much better.
After trading punts in the overtime session, the Eagles looked like they were going to lineup for a 55+ yard field goal to try and take the game, and hit the over, but instead had an offensive penalty. Then another. And punted the ball away to essentially end the game with 19 seconds left. YIKES! A lot of people didn’t get to cash their tickets because of this one.
I guess unsurprisingly the number of bets placed on this game was about the same, 42% to the Jets and 58% to the Colts, each to cover. But the money on the Colts was significantly higher, with 86% favoring the Phillip Rivers led team. Now, this game did start -7 to the Colts before quickly moving to -11 and then ending at -12. So if you placed a bet on the Jets, I’m assuming you thought they were good enough to keep it within 10, or at least score at the end for a backdoor cover.
Nope. Not at all. Darnold threw two Pick Sixes, and the Jets offense racked up a total of 260 yards on their way to looking like probably the worst team in the league. I say probably for a reason though… The Jets offense looks bad and so does their defense, especially after trading away their best player in Jamal Adams, but I get now why he wanted to leave.
This game had the most money on one side, and that side was the clear winner and it wasn’t really ever in question. But even with as bad as the Jets were, there’s another New York Football team doing their best to lose people money, but we’ll get there in a second.
To be a Falcons fan in 2020… my goodness. After last weeks debacle, how could it get any worse right? And man, these Bears just love taking it to the very end. One team can’t win, one team can’t lose. Why did we think the Falcons could cover this game?
The line opened at -3.5 to the Falcons and many people jumped on it there. This number started to come DOWN though with over 70% of the bets and 70% of the handle on the Falcons. That normally doesn’t happen, unless some very sharp money is coming in.
After being up 26-10 in the 4th quarter, Nick Foles led the Bears back from the dead for a 30-26 victory, covering the spread in the process. Sincerely, can it get any worse for the Falcons? Bears move to 3-0 and the Falcons to 0-3. To everyone who thought the Falcons could cover while being the favorite, sorry for your loss.
This was a smash spot for the Giants to get their first win of the year. The 49ers lost their top 2 running backs, quarterback, half their defensive line, and were already down a few more defensive and offensive starters. So naturally Nick Mullens threw for almost 350 yards and the 49ers held the Giants to under 250 total yards.
The line opened at -6.5 to the 49ers, which was still covered, but moved down to -3 as the week went on. The number of bets were split 50/50, but over 75% of the money was on the Giants to cover. And at 36-9, that clearly did not cover.
Sportsbooks were hoping the 49ers could cover with a second string team and that happened very quickly with the Giants not even able to score a touchdown. As I said with the Jets before, the Giants are also probably one of the worst teams in the league.
It was another fun day of football outside of the New York/Philadelphia area and we had money swing in both directions. Hopefully you enjoyed Week 3 Where did the money go? We’ll be crossing our fingers that the money will go more to the public next week! Make sure to check out the Win Daily Sports Betting Membership so you can be in the green every week and follow me on Twitter at @MichaelRasile1!
We are almost one quarter of the way through the NFL season and if feels like it just started. Thankfully we have been winning over here at Win Daily Sports, so make sure to check out all the content we’ve been putting out! And definitely check out the NFL Week 3 Betting Lines podcast where we go over all of these games as well as the Win Daily Sports NFL Odds page where we have the best odds from the books in your state. But for NFL Week 3, Where’s the Money?
One important thing to look at when checking in on the current lines is where they were and how we got here. Seeing a line move significantly should be a good reason to perk up your ears and keep an eye on what’s going on. It’s normally one of two things: sharp money came in hard, or the public collectively thinks something. One of these is not like the other.
Now I’m not here to tell you to “fade the public” at all costs, but when your Uber Driver is telling you to buy Bitcoin, you should probably sell your Bitcoin.
Last night was a great example of paying attention. Everyone and their mother (hand up: me included) was taking the Jaguars because what they’ve looked like the first few weeks of the season. The line opened at -1 to -1.5 to the Jags and almost immediately moved to -3 Jags. The TOTAL shot up from 44 to 48. A lot of people were betting the Jags and the OVER, but that didn’t come to fruition. Over 70% of the bets (tickets placed) and the handle (amount of money) were on the Jags for that game, with everyone forgetting it’s still the Jacksonville Jaguars.
This game has some interested numbers currently attached to it. The Bucs are Favored understandably against the Drew Lock-less Broncos, not to mention no Chris Harris or Von Miller. The line currently sits at -5.5 to the Bucs and has moved around a bit since opening.
Looking at where the money sits though is the interesting part. Number of bets being placed on the Bucs is much higher, 79%, but 97% of the money in coming in on the Broncos! This to me say Sharp Money and Big Money are in on Denver, while the public sees Tom Brady and that offense against a banged up team.
This doesn’t mean the Bucs will lose, or that the Broncos even cover, but it’s a good indication that Sharps believe there is some value in that that +5.5 to Denver and might be a place to look.
Aaron Rodgers is back and Drew Brees has one foot in his grave. This is what anyone on the TV will tell you, so you hear it and probably believe it at this point. Well, A-Rod never really went anywhere when he’s healthy and yes, Drew Brees doesn’t look great, but it was one game right?
This game currently sits at Saints -3 and after seeing what happened to them on Monday Night Football by being outright losers to the Raiders in Vegas, there may be cause for concern. There is also a lot of recency bias. The line opened at -6.5 to the Saints and has come down significantly.
While the two top wide receivers in the league should be showing out, it doesn’t look like we’ll get to see either of them on Sunday. The Saints run defense has been fantastic this year limiting Josh Jacobs and the Bucs running back room. It will be a hard road for Aaron Jones even as we have seen him balling out this year.
The public thinks the Packers do their thing and not lose by almost a full touchdown. Almost 70% of the bets are currently on the Packer in this case, but of course that’s only half the story. We currently are seeing Sharp Money and Big Money on the Saints and over 91% of the handle is flowing in that direction. Again, a cautionary tale on the Saints going on the road and losing a game we all thought they should win.
In 2018 we were starting to get used to this Patrick Mahomes guy and all the magic he provides. Looking like they were going to lose, the Chiefs tied it late and won in overtime. Lamar Jackson is starting to make a name for himself.
In 2019, after both teams start 2-0 and easily look like two of the best teams in the AFC we get to see the new Ravens offense go up against the Chiefs passing attack. Mahomes has a lot of magic this time, but the Chiefs are up big. Ravens make a late push but end up falling by 5 points. Lamar Jackson wins the league MVP, while Mahomes takes Superbowl MVP honors.
In 2020, what do we expect to see? The line opened -2.5 to the Ravens and has creeped up over that magical number of 3 to -3.5. You may be saying “Superbowl champs are GETTING 3.5 points? How could I not take them?” Well, you share the same sentiment as the public does because currently 65% of the bets are on the Chiefs receiving those points.
With all that said, it is clear that the Big Money is in love with this Ravens team on Monday Night Football. 88% of the handle is currently in the Ravens favor with even our own Sia Nejad and Nick Bretwisch stating they think the Raven route the Chiefs. I’m personally staying away from this game because Mahomes has too much magic and I’m not about to bet against that.
Thanks for check out NFL Week 3 Where’s the Money? If you’re looking to start making some money betting this NFL season, and every other sport for that matter, make sure to check out the Win Daily Sports Betting Membership where we post daily plays on spreads, totals, and player props. Make sure to follow me @MichaelRasile1 on Twitter and check out all the content over on the Win Daily Sports Show Podcast!
Welcome to Victory Values – Week 3! In this article, I’ll be looking at the best player values that will lead you to DFS paydirt! You won’t see lame advice to start Kamara, Hopkins or Kelce. You know that already. I’ll go under the hood to find the players with the best matchups and lowest salaries to round out your DFS lineups with big upside – so that you CAN start the studs you want and have a great chance to win! Let’s get started!
Ryan Tannehill – TEN @ MIN – $5,900 ($7,400 in FanDuel) – Why fight it? Tannehill has picked up where he left off last year with multiple TD games in nine consecutive regular season starts. Last week, he destroyed the Jags D to a tune of 18-24-239 and four TD’s. The Vikings have given up 5 passing TD’s and 289 passing yards per game over the first two weeks. This is a smash spot for Tannehill and a Top 5 finish is in the cards.
Carson Wentz – PHI vrs CIN – $5,800 ($7,600 in FanDuel) – It’s been brutal for Wentz over the first two weeks. He did score a TD on the ground in Week 2’s loss to the Rams, but now has 4 picks on the year with only 2 TD’s. Cue the Cincinnati Bengals. Wentz should be getting some more skill position players back in Week 3, and is too good a QB to put up a stinker against this Bengal defense. Look for a Top 10 finish in this one.
Jerick McKinnon – SF @ NYG – $4,900 ($5,700 in FanDuel) – With knee injuries to Raheem Mostert and Tevin Coleman, McKinnon could be in line for a huge workload vrs the Giants. In limited action, McKinnon has 6 carries for 101 yards and a TD as well as 3 catches for 20 yds and a TD through two games. Running backs have shredded the Giants in two games thus far both on the ground and through the air. McKinnon makes for a terrific value play
Antonio Gibson – WASH @ CLE – $4,700 ($5,500 in FanDuel) – Gibson’s usage ticked up in Week 2 with 13 carries (55 yards) and two targets, scoring an 11 yard TD on the ground. It’s apparent that Washington realizes what they have and they are making a concerted effort to involve Gibson in the game plan. The Browns gave up 86 scrimmage yards to Joe Mixon last week, so there is opportunity for production against this defense.
Tarik Cohen – CHI @ ATL- $4,300 ($5,000 in FanDuel) – It’s been slim pickings for Cohen so far, as both David Montgomery and Cordarelle Patterson have more carries and targets. But that should change this week against the porous Falcon defense. The Bears will need to keep up against the high powered Falcon offense, and Cohen should return to his pass catching, PPR role.
Anthony Miller – CHI @ ATL – $4,900 ($5,500 in FanDuel) – It’s criminal to see how little the Bears have used Miller to this point. With only three targets (no catches) last week, the Bears seem to have forgotten that Miller (4-76-1 in Week One) scored the winning touchdown in their Week 1 win. Many DFS players will see Miller’s Week 2 zero stat line and be off of him. Don’t make that mistake. The Bears will need to score 30-35 points to beat the Falcons and Miller should be heavily involved in that effort.
Darius Slayton – NYG vrs SF – $4,900 ($5,500 in FanDuel) – Slayton was quiet with just 3-33 last week, but he’s still Daniel Jones’ favorite target and is always capable of his Week 1 stat line (6-102-2). The Niners D is beset with injuries as both Joey Bosa and Soloman Thomas are out for the year. This defense is simply not the same without those players. Start Slayton with confidence as he should be very productive.
Michael Pittman Jr. – INDY vrs NYJ – $4,000 ($5,000 in FanDuel) – Pittman’s usage increased in Week 2 has he had 6 targets, producing 4 catches for 37 yards. His involvement should continue to rise in the coming weeks, as Pittman lands in a smash shot vrs the awful New York Jets defense. You should be starting as many Colt offensive players as you can in this match up, especially an inexpensive one with Pittman.
Logan Thomas – WASH @ CLE – $3,700 ($4,900 in FanDuel) – With 17 targets through two weeks, Thomas is a prime candidate to produce against the 32nd ranked Browns D. After Terry McLaurin, Thomas (4-37-1) is Dwayne Haskins favorite receiver. There should be a good deal of fireworks in this game and Thomas is likely to find the end zone.
Drew Sample – CIN @ PHI – $3,500 ($4,800 in FanDuel) – If you watched last Thursday’s Browns/Bengals game, you’d notice that Sample’s name was called a lot. It’s normal for a rookie QB to depend on his tight end. Joe Burrow looked Sample’s way 9x last week (7-45) as the Bengals look to be playing catch up again in Philadelphia. Garbage receptions count too. Sample is a sneaky good play as his target share dictates success.
GIANTS vrs SF – $2,700 ($3,600 in FanDuel) – Jimmy Garoppolo is most likely out for this game. Jerick McKinnon seems to be the Niners’ only starting caliber RB available. George Kittle is doubtful to play as Deebo Samuel is still on IR. As long as the Giants double cover Jordan Reed (9-62-2 last week), they should be able to force Nick Mullens into some turnovers, sacks and negative plays.
Thanks for checking out this article for Victory Values: Week 3! Make sure to follow us on Twitter @WinDailySports and make sure to head over WinDailySports.com to find more great content to win big!
I’m not too sure it’s overly dramatic to say that Week 2 might have been the worst week for injuries in a very long time. For fantasy football purposes, it might be up there as the worst ever. The NFL is a next man up league, so that’s where our focus is for NFL Week 3 Waiver Wire and the list of players is going to be long for this article. Let’s just take a quick look at the list of players who are out or likely to be out for and extended period of time.
That doesn’t even count players that we’re waiting for a diagnosis on, like Davante Adams, Jimmy Garoppolo, Cam Akers, Tevin Coleman and Tyrod Taylor. It was a minefield yesterday and we’re hoping every player has a quick and speedy recovery.
*Note* The ownership referenced will be based on Yahoo and if this needs updated after Monday Night Football, it certainly will be before your waivers run.
Baker Mayfield, Browns – 47% rostered
Baker is of course already rostered in 2QB leagues but if you’re looking for a streamer for the next couple of weeks, Mayfield is right up your alley. He gets the Washington Football Team this week, who have already given up over 550 passing yards and three scores through the air and then he gets the prime matchup against the Dallas Cowboys. Neither defense has shown a ton of resistance, although at least Washington has a pass rush. Dallas has been shredded in both games so far and faces Seattle this week, so it’s not likely to get better.
Mayfield sits 10th in intended air yards and despite sitting just 21st in attempts, has three touchdowns already. Complimented by a strong running game, Mayfield is a nice stash. Even if you don’t need him this week, get ahead of the curve for Week 4 against Dallas.
Gardner Minshew – Jaguars, 32% rostered
I’m going to keep pounding this drum until Minshew is higher rostered than he is right now. He’s keeping the Jaguars in games at the moment and has thrown six touchdowns already. The accuracy is impressive at 49-65 for a 75% completion rate. He’s thriving in Jay Gruden’s offense and utilizing the tools he has.
The next couple of weeks are absolutely perfect for him too. He gets Miami on a short week who has a banged up secondary. They also just allowed over 400 yards passing to the new GOAT, Josh Allen. After that, he reels of matchups against the Bengals, Texans and Lions before his Week 7 bye. He needs to be on your radar the rest of the way.
Justin Herbert – Chargers, 3% rostered
Herbert did literally anything you could ask for from a rookie making his first start on an emergency basis. He threw a 66% completion rate, threw for a score and ran for another and only had one interception. He wasn’t exactly just a game manager either with throws like this.
Head coach Anthony Lynn can say that Tyrod Taylor is the starter if he’s healthy all he wants. You can’t put the genie back in the bottle, as it were. Herbert was a top-five draft pick, the future of the franchise, and just did that against the defending Super Bowl champ with no practice reps. This kid is going to be the starter really soon. He may not be the highest need for NFL Week 3 Waiver Wire. However, in a 2QB league especially, Herbert needs to be rostered right now.
Honorable Mention – Ryan Tannehill (efficient yet again, but the next four games include Pittsburgh and Buffalo, then a bye in the fifth week)
Mike Davis – Carolina Panthers, 4% rostered
Davis is likely the number one priority on every waiver wire this week (and a great argument for FAAB, but I digress) with the news CMC is going to miss 4-6 weeks with a high ankle sprain. After McCaffrey left, Davis reeled in seven receptions with the Panthers trailing. That’s going to happen an awful lot this season and Davis accounted for 17 routes as well. Even if other backs like Trenton Cannon or Reggie Bonnafon get some run in this backfield, CMC took up so much volume that Davis is still going to be gold. That’s especially true in PPR and if you can acquire him, you do it.
Jerick McKinnon/Tevin Coleman – 49ers, 23% and 53% rostered
This could be a bit of a tricky situation. Kyle Shanahan has never been shy about mixing and matching his backs, and now with Mostert on the shelf with a knee I still expect that to continue. Don’t be surprised to see Jeff Wilson Jr. or maybe even rookie JaMycal Hasty elevated off the practice squad. However, there’s two backs that should be the focus of this running attack and it’s McKinnon and Coleman.
For me, I’m going to lean towards the player who has more upside and through the first two games it’s McKinnon. The snaps are about equal at 36 for Coleman and 32 for McKinnon. Coleman has 18 rushes for 30 yards and 3 receptions for 34 yards, while McKinnon has 6 rushes for 101 yards and 3 receptions for 20 yards. McKinnon has also found the end zone twice to zero times for Coleman. You can argue that the 55 yard scamper for McKinnon skews everything and that’s not wrong. It also shows that one back has some burst and it sure doesn’t look like Coleman right now.
*Update* I can’t even get through the entire article without something bad happening. The 49ers now say that Coleman’s knee injury will keep him out multiple weeks. That puts McKinnon in a very high priority and it’s important to see who comes in off the practice squad as well. I still value Davis higher for NFL Week 3 Waiver Wire.
Darell Henderson, Rams – 32% rostered
With the loss of Cam Akers early in Philly, Henderson carved out 14 touches and a score against the Eagles. What should be noted is that Henderson did a lot of work in the fourth quarter, when the game was more or less over but Sean McVay has made it clear he’s going running back by committee this season. RBBC can still be quite valuable for fantasy when A. it’s being split between two backs and B. the team is second in rush attempts per game as the Rams are. With other high profile options, Henderson might be a bit overlooked.
Devonta Freeman, N/A – 13% rostered
This is a bit of an educated guess. We know that Saquon Barkley is done for the year with a torn ACL. We know that Freeman went to visit the Giants and considering their backfield is currently Dion Lewis and Wayne Gallman, I would think Freeman finds a home. It could take a couple weeks to get up to speed sort of like Leonard Fournette in Tampa, but Freeman would have a huge role in New York. That’s even if Lewis and Gallman still get involved to some extent. He’s not a season changer but he could be on the flex radar and you can’t have enough RB depth. It can go away in a heartbeat.
Joshua Kelley, Chargers – 39% rostered
Guys, what are we doing that Kelley isn’t rostered all over? Sure, nobody expected him to sit fifth in carries among all running backs before Monday Night Football. We all knew that Austin Ekeler wasn’t going to go for 350 touches or so. Kelley is tied for third among running backs in red zone rushes. He may only be grinding out 3.5 yards per carry but he and Ekeler are tied for carries at 35. He even saw a couple targets this week. Just like the Rams, this RBBC is profitable for fantasy because the Chargers lead the league in rush attempts per game. That won’t change regardless of QB, they want to be a ground and pound team. Kelley needs to be on rosters now.
Honorable Mention – Myles Gaskin, Chase Edmonds if you have a burner spot on the roster
Russell Gage – Falcons, 22% rostered
Wide receivers might not be the primary need for most in NFL Week 3 Waiver Wire. Still, some players are looking for replacements. Another player who needs a significant increase in being rostered, Gage is a vital cog for the Atlanta offense. Their defense isn’t getting any better and the offense is going to have to carry them to any sort of victory. Only the Bengals are attempting more passes per game and Joe Burrow just threw the ball 61 times the last contest. In a premier passing offense, Gage is working the short field with an aDOT just over 7.0.
Not only has that led to a 71% catch rate, but he’s drawing comparable targets to Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley. He’s seen 21 targets over two games and is becoming a safety blanket for Matt Ryan. Even in a game where Hayden Hurst was involved, Gage still managed nine targets. There’s no sizzle but he is a dynamite PPR option at this point.
Keelan Cole/ Laviska Shenault, Jaguars – 3%/17% rostered
I don’t believe that Cole will continue to lead the Jags in targets with DJ Chark there, but it’s tough to ignore the chemistry with Minshew two weeks into the year. He’s caught almost every pass thrown his way so far and has a score in each game. With the Jaguars projected to be a fairly pass heavy team, Cole can be in the conversation for an every week flex option. Shenault is in the running as well, with another eight touches on Sunday. It’s great to see him get five rushing attempts because that could offset slower days in the passing game. Jacksonville is 20th in attempts, but only threw the ball 20 times in the opening week. Expect them to continue to climb in attempts and Cole and Shenault to climb with it.
Michael Pittman Jr., Colts – 15% rostered
It’s funny to look back at the draft and realize the Colts valued Pittman ahead of running back Jonathan Taylor, and they have both been pressed into immediate duty. Parris Campbell suffered a serious knee injury and after he was hurt, Pittman reeled in four receptions on six targets. The Indy offense has been battered by losing three skill position players already and Pittman should slide into the possession receiver role.
KJ Hamler, Broncos – 1% rostered
Drew Lock is out for multiple weeks and Sutton is done for the year, so there is some opportunity for Hamler. He walked into seven targets and mostly played out of the slot. That was almost 20% of the targets and should actually have a pretty solid chance of sustaining going forward. Receiver is deep, but Hamler is an explosive athlete that could be capable of some big games ahead.
Honorable Mention – Corey Davis, Tim Patrick
Dalton Schultz, Cowboys – 2% rostered
If you have Rob Gronkowski rostered, you need a replacement. I’d be lying if I said I knew who Schultz was before Blake Jarwin tore his ACL, but Dak Prescott sure knows him. Schultz was targeted 10 times on Sunday, catching nine balls for 88 yards and a score. Not only that, he ran 36 routes. The game script was upside down instantly for the Cowboys, but that defense is still poor. They might not be able to run as much as they’d like. Even in a crowded offense, Schultz holds appeal at what can still be a tough position to fill.
Drew Sample, Bengals – 1% rostered
With the news that C.J. Uzomah is done for the year, there’s an opening in the pecking order for targets in the Bengals offense. Both tight ends have combined for 22 targets, which would be second on the team behind only AJ Green. Eight of those 22 have come in the red zone and Sample already leads the team with five. Cincinnati is not a good squad this year, so Sample might be seeing plenty of volume to make him viable every week.
Mo Alie-Cox, Colts – 1%
Who would have known that Philip Rivers would throw to the tight end, regardless of which player it was? I made a serious error in my Game Breakdown by dismissing Alie-Cox. I don’t think he’s great, but the situation is as long as Jack Doyle is out. Rivers loves his backs and tight ends, and Alie-Cox delivered the first 100 yard game of his career. He matched the output that Doyle has in his career. If Doyle is out, Alie-Cox is a plug and play replacement.
Honorable Mention – I’m personally offended that Mike Gesicki is under 70% rostered on Yahoo.
Indianpolis – 41% rostered
The Colts are coming off dismantling the Vikings, causing three interceptions and recording a safety. They’ve racked up seven sacks through the first two weeks and have three turnovers. Playing the Jets in Indy should continue to help the Colts rack up some stats.
Tampa Bay – 50% rostered
They’re playing better than last year already and have a formidable front seven. Even marginal improvements from the secondary would be a big step. So far, they have six sacks and two turnovers. Tampa is also second heading into MNF with 17 tackles for a loss. With Denver so banged up on offense, they could have a field day.
LA Chargers – 30% rostered
This unit is two games into the season and has only surrendered a grand total of 36 points. One game was against Joe Burrow making his debut, but they held Patrick Mahomes and company to just 23 points and had them off-balance all day long. Only two turnovers and four sacks isn’t incredible on paper, but catch tin Carolina without CMC is going to help immensely.
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NFL DFS Week 3 is almost complete.Let’s take a look at the biggest takeaways from all of Sunday’s Week 3 DFSaction. I have compiled 12 major observations from the games played on Sunday.We also look ahead to Week 4. Prices discussed are for DraftKings.
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MikeEvans #Kaboom
Mike Evans was underpriced byDraftKings in comparison to Chris Godwin this week. Let’s just say somebodymust have told Evans that because he made them ALL pay. I was high on Evans with the discount and he wasa GPP winner. At 10.7 percent ownership, he was featured in the winning lineupof the DFS Week 3 NFL $500K SLANT contest. The sharps were definitely ontoEvans having a bounce-back week. However, if you missed out on Evans this week,he is someone to fade hard in Week 4 against the Rams. Evans’ price hasinflated to $7,100, whereas the value is in Godwin, whose price fell to $6,000.Los Angeles gives up the second-fewest fantasy points to the wide receiverposition.
NelsonAgholor Delivers As Chalk
In the first half of the game,things were not looking great for Agholor. He was heavily played at his $3,600price tag. In the second half, he delivered big with two touchdown receptions.In the DFS Week 3 NFL MASSIVE $50 DOUBLE UP contest Aghlolor saw a whopping67.5 ownership percentage. He was essentially the free square space in cashgames in Week 3. But what is more interesting was his usage in GPP contests.His ownership dropped down to 30.2 percent in the NFL $500K SLANT. Thelow-priced value wide receivers are always going to be lower owned in GPPs. Whatthis means is you can not only eat the chalk in cash games with a cheaphigh-value receiver, but you can still do it in GPPs as well. For Week 4,Agholor is not on the main slate because he is playing Thursday night.
PatrickMahomes Continues To Dazzle
Is their a defense on the planetthat can stop Mahomes? Mahomes has been on absolute fire to start the seasonand will continue to be a value in DraftKings in Week 4. His price has actuallydecreased from $7,600 to $7,500 in DraftKings for the upcoming week. The Lionshave allowed an average of 287 passing yards to opposing quarterbacks thisseason. It looks like Mahomes is going to throw for another 300 yards and threetouchdowns.
CardinalsCannot Stop Tight Ends
The Arizona Cardinals defense cannotcover the tight end position. For three straight weeks, they have allowed anopposing tight end to score 21-plus fantasy points. In Week 4 the Cardinals areplaying the Seattle Seahawks, setting the stage for tight end Will Dissly. Heis priced up just $200 more since last week at $3,600. He will be a great cheaptight end to target considering he has three touchdown receptions in the lasttwo weeks on 12 targets.
Timeto Run All Over the Dolphins
Need a running back play? Trywhoever is playing the Miami Dolphins that week. Not only was Ezekiel Elliottat $8,900 and 50 percent ownership able to produce, but backup running backTony Pollard got in on the action. For Week 4, the Miami Dolphins will betaking on the Los Angeles Chargers. This sets up nicely for Austin Ekeler, whohas been priced up to $8,000 after three weeks of severe underpricing. Ekeleris still going to be a great option in cash games though and will be continuedto be heavily rostered. He was at 40.5 percent ownership in the DFS Week 3 NFLMASSIVE $50 DOUBLE UP contest.
DannyDimes
Daniel Jones was rostered in just 1.8 percent of lineups in the NFL $500K SLANT. He was in the winning lineup in that contest. He absolutely smashed his projection by scoring 39.24 fantasy points. Jones put the team on his back with the injury to Saquon Barkley. His salary was only $5,000 in DraftKings in Week 3, and his price rose to just $5,300 in Week 4. The Giants will play the Washington Redskins on a short week. The Redskins defense through the first two weeks of the season has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to the quarterback position. Jones will continue to be a value because the Giants bad defense will force the quarterback to have to keep pace.
KyleAllen > Cam Newton
Allen spoiled any DFS player thatplayed him in Week 3. He was just too great of value at a mediocre $4,000salary. Allen was heavily rostered with 9.7 percent ownership in the NFL $500KSLANT, and 28.4% ownership in the NFL MASSIVE $50 DOUBLE UP. The price point onhis salary was the main drive of his ownership; however, going into Week 4 witha matchup against the Texans at $5,200 it might be wise to go right back toKyle Allen. The Texans have allowed two of the three quarterbacks they havefaced two passing touchdowns and at least 300 yards.
KylerMurray Uses His Legs
Kyler Murray only had six rushingattempts for 17 yards through the first two weeks of the season. In Week 3, thescript changed and Murray rushed eight times for 69 yards. He also had twopassing touchdowns to go with 173 passing yards. People were definitely high onMurray as he garnered 15 percent ownership in the DFS Week 3 NFL MASSIVE $50DOUBLE UP. As a result of his rushing upside combined with the fact that he isthrowing 40 times per game, Murray has a great floor in cash but still has thatpotential for a nice ceiling GPP game.
RussellWilson Continues to Be Overlooked
Seems like there are just not enoughpeople playing Russell Wilson in DraftKings. He was $6,300 in Week 3, scored44.34 fantasy points, and had just 1.6 percent ownership in the NFL $500K SLANTGPP contest. Both of his primary receivers, Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf, bothwere under four percent owned. Also, with the Cardinals coming up next week thefolks at DraftKings have been nice enough to lower Wilson to $6,100, and movehis two primary receivers up just $100 each. People were off Wilson due to thefact that he just had 20 passing attempts Week 1, but those attempts haveincreased by 15 over the past two weeks.
DalvinCook Continues to Smash
Dalvin Cook was in an obvious greatmatchup against the Oakland Raiders and yet his ownership was at a mere 32.8percent in the DFS Week 3 NFL MASSIVE $50 DOUBLE UP. Maybe more than 66 percentof people hate winning. He was even lower owned in the NFL $500K SLANT at 21.3percent. With the Vikings taking on the Bears in Week 4, I am sure that somepeople will be off Cook making him an even better target in DFS across allformats. As a result, his price has finally reached over $8K at $8,300. Youshould still play him, that is if you like money.
MarlonMack – Three Down Back
Mack rushed 16 times for 74 yardswith a touchdown and brought in two of three targets for 14 yards in Week 4.Mack has now seen three straight games with at least 18 touches. Running backNyheim Hines has seen just as many targets as Mack in the last two weeks. Thisis great for Mack moving forward, especially as he takes on the Raiders.Indianapolis has the fifth-highest run play rate in the NFL through the firstthree weeks. The Raiders defense played well against the run at home, but inWeek 3 on the road, they allowed 211 rushing yards. Oakland was the third-worstrun defense in 2018. As a result, Mack in DraftKings has been priced up toabove $6K for the first time at $6,100.
WereWe Not High Enough On Mark Ingram?
In the highest projected total gameof the week, Ingram should have be more heavily owned. One would think that therunning back on one of the most explosive offenses in the league would behighly rostered. Well, it did not pan out that way. In the DFS Week 3 NFL $500KSLANT contest, Mark Ingram had just 3.7 percent ownership. He scored threetouchdowns and rushed for over 100 yards. Now it must have been the projectedgame script that scared players away from Ingram. Players must have assumed theRavens would be from behind, but the matchup was still good. The Chiefs defensegave up 99 yards rushing just last week to Josh Jacobs. The Chiefs are allowinga league-high 6.2 yards per rushing attempt. Kerryon Johnson might be aninteresting play as the Chiefs take on the Lions In Week 4.
All that considered Ingram still hadfour targets and four receptions in the passing game, along with the majorityof work in the red zone. His price has gone up to $6,600 from $5,700 but theRavens are back at home in Week 4. The Browns are allowing over 100 rushingyards per game so far through the first three weeks.
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NFL DFS Week 3 is almost complete. Let’s take a look at the biggest takeaways from all of Sunday’s Week 3 DFS action. I have compiled 12 major observations from the games played on Sunday. We also look ahead to Week 4. Price discussed are for DraftKings.
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Mike Evans was underpriced by DraftKings in comparison to Chris Godwin this week. Let’s just say somebody must have told him that because he made them ALL pay. I was high on Evans with the discount and he was a GPP winner. At 10.7 percent ownership, he was featured in the winner of the DFS Week 3 NFL $500K SLANT contest. The sharps were definitely onto Evans having a bounce-back week. However, if you missed out on Evans this week, he is someone to fade hard in Week 4 against the Rams. Evans priced has inflated to $7,100, whereas the value is in Godwin whose price fell to $6,000. Los Angeles gives up the second-fewest fantasy points to the wide receiver position.
In the first half of the game, things were not looking great for Agholor. He was heavily played at his $3,600 price tag. In the second half, he delivered big with two touchdown receptions. In the DFS Week 3 NFL MASSIVE $50 DOUBLE UP contest Aghlolor saw a whopping 67.5 ownership. He was essentially the free square space in cash games in Week 3. But what is more interesting was his usage in GPP contests. His ownership dropped down to 30.2 percent in the NFL $500K SLANT. The low-priced value wide receivers are always going to be lower owned in GPPs. What this means is you can not only eat the chalk in cash games with a cheap high-value receiver, but you can still do it in GPPs as well. For Week 4, Agholor is not on the main slate because he is playing Thursday night.
Is their a defense on the planet that can stop Mahomes? Mahomes has been on absolute fire to start the season and will continue to be a value in DraftKings in Week 4. His price has actually decreased from $7,600 to $7,500 in DraftKings for the upcoming week. The Lions have allowed an average of 287 passing yards to opposing quarterbacks this season. It looks like Mahomes is going to throw for another 300 yards and three touchdowns.
The Arizona Cardinals defense cannot cover the tight end position. For three straight weeks, they have allowed an opposing tight end to score 21-plus fantasy points. In Week 4 the Cardinals are playing the Seattle Seahawks, setting the stage for tight end Will Dissly. He is priced up just $200 more since last week at $3,600. He will be a great cheap tight end to target considering he has three touchdown receptions in the last two weeks on 12 targets.
Need a running back play? Try whoever is playing the Miami Dolphins that week. Not only was Ezekiel Elliott at $8,900 and 50 percent ownership able to produce, but backup running back Tony Pollard got in on the action. For Week 4, the Miami Dolphins will be taking on the Los Angeles Chargers. This sets up nicely for Austin Ekeler who has been priced up to $8,000 after three weeks of severe underpricing. Ekeler is still going to be a great option in cash games though and will be continued to be heavily rostered. He was at 40.5 percent ownership in the DFS Week 3 NFL MASSIVE $50 DOUBLE UP contest.
Daniel Jones was rostered in just 1.8 percent of lineups in the NFL $500K SLANT. He was in the winning lineup in that contest. He absolutely smashed his projection by scoring 39.24 fantasy points. Jones put the team on his back with the injury to Saquon Barkley. His salary was only $5,000 in DraftKings in Week 3, and his price rose to just $5,300 in Week 4. The Giants will play the Washington Redskins on a short week. The Redskins defense through the first two weeks of the season has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to the quarterback position. Jones will continue to be a value because the Giants bad defense will force the quarterback to have to keep pace.
Allen spoiled any DFS player that played him in Week 3. He was just too great of value at a mediocre $4,000 salary. Allen was heavily rostered with 9.7 percent ownership in the NFL $500K SLANT, and 28.4% ownership in the NFL MASSIVE $50 DOUBLE UP. The price point on his salary was the main drive of his ownership; however, going into Week 4 with a matchup against the Texans at $5,200 it might be wise to go right back to Kyle Allen. The Texans have allowed two of the three quarterbacks they have faced two passing touchdowns and at least 300 yards passing.
Kyler Murray only had six rushing attempts for 17 yards through the first two weeks of the season. In Week 3, the script changed and Murray rushed eight times for 69 yards. He also had two passing touchdowns to go with 173 passing yards. People were definitely high on Murray as he garnered a 15 percent ownership in the DFS Week 3 NFL MASSIVE $50 DOUBLE UP. As a result of his rushing upside combined with the fact that he is throwing 40 times per game, Murray has a great floor in cash but still has that potential for a nice ceiling game.
Seems like there are just not enough people playing Russell Wilson in DraftKings. He was $6,300 in Week 3, scored 44.34 fantasy points, and had just a 1.6 percent ownership in the NFL $500K SLANT GPP contest. Both of his primary receivers Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf both were under four percent owned. Also, with the Cardinals coming up next week the folks at DraftKings have been nice enough to lower Wilson to $6,100, and move his two primary receivers up just $100 each. People were off Wilson due to the fact that he just had 20 passing attempts Week 1, but those attempts have increased by 15 over the past two weeks.
Dalvin Cook was in an obvious great matchup against the Oakland Raiders and yet his ownership was at a mere 32.8 percent in the DFS Week 3 NFL MASSIVE $50 DOUBLE UP. Maybe more than 66 percent of people hate winning. He was even lower owned in the NFL $500K SLANT at 21.3 percent. With the Vikings taking on the Bears in Week 4, I am sure that some people will be off Cook making him an even better target in DFS across all formats. As a result, his price has finally reached over $8K at $8,300. You should still play him, that is if you like money.
Mack rushed 16 times for 74 yards with a touchdown and brought in two of three targets for 14 yards in Week 4. Mack has now seen three straight games with at least 18 touches. Running back Nyheim Hines has seen just as many targets as Mack in the last two weeks. This is great for Mack moving forward especially as he takes on the Raiders. Indianapolis has the fifth-highest run play rate in the NFL through the first three weeks. The Raiders defense played well against the run at home, but in Week 3 on the road, they allowed 211 rushing yards. Oakland was the third-worst run defense in 2018. As a result, Mack in DraftKings has been priced up to above $6K for the first time at $6,100.
In the highest projected total game of the week, Ingram should have be more heavily owned. One would think that the running back on one of the most explosive offenses in the league would be highly rostered. Well, it did not pan out that way. In the DFS Week 3 NFL $500K SLANT contest, Mark Ingram had just 3.7 percent ownership. He scored three touchdowns and rushed for over 100 yards. Now it must have been the projected game script that scared players away from Ingram. Players must have assumed the Ravens would be from behind, but the matchup was still good. The Chiefs defense gave up 99 yards rushing just last week to Josh Jacobs. The Chiefs are allowing a league-high 6.2 yards per rushing attempt. Kerryon Johnson in Week 4, might be an interesting play as the Chiefs take on the Lions.
All that considered Ingram still had four targets and four receptions in the passing game, along with the majority of work in the red zone. His price has gone up to $6,600 from $5,700 but the Ravens are back at home in Week 4. The Browns are allowing over 100 rushing yards per game so far through the first three weeks.
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Image via: Mike Morris
Week 3 sets up for an epic contest for all DFS Week 3 players across the nation. Whether you are playing cash games or GPPs, there is value all across the board so make sure you focus your play on playing the best players with the highest projected ceilings especially in GPPs. You will find all the best picks for Week 3 here.
I review them in the video above, but if you need a quick hitter here are the lists of some players that I am buying for my DFS Week 3 lineups. They include Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, John Brown, Joe Mixon, Ito Smith, Cole Beasley, Tyler Boyd, Zach Ertz, Marvin Jones, Nelson Agholor, Sony Michel, Dalvin Cook, Hunter Renfrow, LeSean McCoy, Marlon Mack, Ezekiel Elliott, Dak Prescott, Randall Cobb, Preston Williams, and Jason Witten.
The fade players include Cowboys D/ST, Chiefs’ wide receivers, Matt Ryan, and Evan Engram. Also, do not forget to buy into the Cardinals’ wide receivers. Larry Fitzgerald ($5,100), Damiere Byrd ($3,000), and Christian Kirk ($5,000) are three of the top five leaders in routes run so far in 2019. Are you ready for NFL DFS Week 3?
THANK YOU FOR READING. YOU CAN READ SOME OF MY OTHER WORK AND THOUGHTS ON MY AUTHOR PAGE. FOLLOW Win Daily DFS ON TWITTER @WinDailyDFS. PLEASE CHECK OUT EVERYTHING THAT Win Daily DFS HAS TO OFFER. NEW ARTICLES, STATISTICS, AND DATA ARE BEING ADDED CONSTANTLY. ALSO, DO NOT FORGET TO LISTEN TO THE WIN DAILY PODCASTS HERE.
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