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NFL Divisional Round Weekend Saturday Slate

Welcome to the divisional round of the NFL postseason. Both games should be competitive as the Texans visit the defending champions Chiefs and Washington takes a trip to Detroit to play the NFC’s top seed Lions.

The purpose of this article is to break down the best plays both on the DFS and betting sides. The article will include my favorite plays and honorable mentions for every DFS position. You can also find my favorite bets under Drago’s Best Bets section at the end of the article.

The QBs:

Jayden Daniels ($7000DK, $8200FD)

Starting with the favorite for the OROY and the highest-priced QB on the slate, Daniels is in a good spot against the Lions on Saturday. The Lions allowed the fifth most passing yards to opposing quarterbacks (4404) and allowed the fourth most rushing yards (454). This game has the highest total (55.5) of all four divisional round games and for good reason as both offenses are great. I’m following the books here and backing Daniels as he will need to pass and run to keep Washington in the game and have an opportunity to upset the Lions.

Who to pair him with: Terry McLaurin, Olamide Zaccheaus, Dyami Brown

Patrick Mahomes ($6000DK, $7700FD)

Although Mahomes didn’t have the best regular season, it is in the playoffs where he usually shines the brightest. Houston was good against quarterbacks in the regular season allowing the seventh-fewest passing yards (3749) and had the second-most interceptions with 19. While they have been good against quarterbacks, one of their worst games this season came against Mahomes last month where he threw for 260 yards and a touchdown while finishing with 23.7 DK. I like the price for Mahomes in this spot.

Who to pair him with: Xavier Worthy. Travis Kelce

Honorable Mentions: Jared Goff.

The RBs:

David Montgomery ($5700DK, $4000FD)

Not much to say here, Montgomery is one of the best running backs in the NFL and is coming into this game with no injury designation which means he should be healthy enough to see his usual workload. If he does get his usual workload (13.2 attempts) then he should be in for a big game as the Commanders are not good against the run. They have 18 running backs this season to reach the 50-yard mark, with 10 of those reaching 75+ and half reaching 100+. Montgomery will split time with Gibbs, who is also in play, but the Lions have proved that both can get enough touches to pay off.

Isiah Pacheco ($5500DK, $5800FD)

Staying in the midrange in salary for running backs, Pacheco is in a good spot against the Texans. Pacheco didn’t finish the regular season as strong as he would have hoped coming back from injury. In his five games since returning from injury he has 49 carries for 175 yards (3.5/carry). The Chiefs decided to let Hunt continue to see a significant workload, only finishing with 4 fewer carries than Pacheco in the five games they played together. But with three weeks of rest (KC rested their starters in Week 18) I think Pacheco should be back to the form he had before the injury.

Honorable Mentions: Jahmyr Gibbs. Joe Mixon. Brian Robinson Jr. Austin Ekeler.

The WRs:

Terry McLaurin ($6300DK, $7400FD)

As I mentioned above the Lions are allowing the fifth most passing yards to quarterbacks, 3147 of the yards they have allowed are from wide receivers which is the most allowed. McLaurin being the Commander’s top target should be able to take advantage of the secondary. He should see a healthy amount of Terrion Arnold who has been an ok corner this season allowing .26 FPRR and 1.26YPRR, McLaurin leads Washington in both categories with .48 FPRR and 2 YPRR. McLaurin has a 37.1% target share among Commander wide receivers and has accounted for 42.1% of the receiving yards for Washington receivers.

Xavier Worthy ($5200DK, $6400FD)

Worthy has felt like a steal for the Chiefs with the 28th pick. He has been involved in the passing and run game, having a carry in 12 games this season. He was successful in his first matchup against the Texans, finishing the game with 65 receiving yards, and a touchdown, and added 10 yards in the run game. He will be moved a lot during the game so while it looks like on paper he will see Stingley Jr who is the Texan’s best corner, he should have plenty of opportunities to have success.

Honorable Mentions: Nico Collins. Amon-Ra St.Brown. Jameson Williams. DeAndre Hopkins.

Value WRs: Olamide Zacchaeus. Dyami Brown. John Metchie. Justin Watson. Tim Patrick.

The TEs

Dalton Schultz ($3300DK, $5300FD)

It’s hard to pass on Schultz in this spot. He is priced as the lowest starting tight end but he is in the best spot out of the four. The Chiefs are allowing the most receiving yards to tight ends (1191) and are giving up the fourth most fantasy points. In the first meeting, Schultz had five receptions for 45 yards and a score. Schultz’s 45 receiving yards was the fifth-fewest they have allowed in a game as they have allowed 50+ yards in more than half of their games. At this price, I am locking in Schultz as my tight end in every lineup.

Honorable Mentions: Travis Kelce. Sam LaPorta. Zach Ertz. Noah Gray. *I think all tight ends are in play for Saturday but Schultz would be my favorite.*

Drago’s Best Bets:

Washington Commanders +8.5 (-108) vs Detroit Lions
David Montgomery Over 45.5 Rushing Yards (-115)/ 50+ (+105)/ 60+ (+155)
Kansas City Chiefs Alt Spread -6.5 (-161) vs Houston Texans
Dalton Schultz Over 39.5 Receiving Yards (-110)/ 50+ (+150)

Make sure to hop in our Expert Discord Chat for FREE! Ivan (idrago15) will be there answering questions all day and all night! Follow Ivan on Twitter @idragol15 and be sure to be on the lookout for future articles at h ttps://windailysports.com/nfl/

3 months ago 0 comments

NFL Wild Card Weekend Saturday Slate

Ivan Herrera 3 months ago

written by Ivan Herrera

Welcome to the first slate of the NFL postseason. Both games should be competitive as the Texans host the Chargers and AFC North rivals, Steelers and Ravens face off in Baltimore.
The purpose of this article is to break down the best plays both on the DFS and betting sides. The article will include my favorite plays and honorable mentions for every DFS position. You can also find my favorite bets under Drago’s Best Bets section at the end of the article.

The QBs:

Lamar Jackson ($8000DK, $8700FD)

Jackson has been a top-two QB this season alongside Josh Allen, and he is very much in play on Saturday for the playoffs. In his two regular-season games against the Steelers, Jackson threw for 207 in each of them, three passing touchdowns, and added 133 yards and a score on the ground. In those two games, he averaged 18.7 points on DraftKings. The Steelers are the sixth-best defense (best on the slate) against quarterbacks in fantasy but with the success that Jackson has had against them, I am comfortable paying up for him in this spot.

Who to pair him with: Mark Andrews. Isaiah Likely. Nelson Agholor

Justin Herbert ($6000DK, $7500FD)

I like Herbert’s matchup against the Texans on Saturday. Houston is allowing the 15th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks (second most on the slate). The Chargers finished off the season with a lot more passing attempts with seven of Hebert’s 10 30+ passing attempt games coming over the past eight weeks. Over the past five weeks, Herbert has also thrown 43% of his touchdowns this season (10 of his 23). With the Texans allowing the third most passing touchdowns, if this trend continues for the Chargers then Hebert should be in for a big day.

Who to pair him with: Ladd McConkey. Derius Davis. Will Dissly.

Honorable Mentions: Cj Stroud. Russell Wilson

The RBs:

Derrick Henry ($8200DK, $9800FD)

Not much to say here, Henry was second in rushing yards and was tied with James Cook and Jahmyr Gibbs with 16 rushing touchdowns for the league lead. In his two games against the Steelers this season Henry averaged 113.5 rushing yards and scored one rushing touchdown and added 27 receiving yards. Henry will always be in play no matter which defense he is playing against.

Joe Mixon ($7200DK, $7500FD)

I want to pair Mixon with Henry on the Saturday slate. With Stroud struggling this season and the Chargers being ranked the 10th-best defense against quarter backs, I expect Mixon to be heavily involved in both the passing and run game. The Chargers have been good against running backs, allowing the third-fewest fantasy points, but I have Houston winning this game thanks to a good game from Mixon.

Honorable Mentions: Jaylen Warren. Justice Hill. Najee Harris. JK Dobbins.

The WRs:

Ladd McConkey ($6800DK, $7500FD)

The Chargers found their franchise wide receiver with Ladd McConkey. He is having a great season as a rookie, and there is no reason to expect that to change on Saturday against the Texans. Working out of the slot, McConkey should avoid Derek Stingley who is the Texan’s best corner. McConkey has a 34.6% target share so he has been seeing the ball a lot, and is averaging 2.35 yards per route run. At his price, he is a hard player to pass on.

Rashod Bateman ($5000DK, $6000FD)

With no Zay Flowers for this game, Bateman gets the chance to be the WR1 for the Ravens. Bateman has seen 72 targets and has been able to turn that into 45 receptions, 756 yards, and nine touchdowns. The unfortunate part of being the number one target at the wide receiver spot for Bateman is that he will now see Joey Porter Jr for majority of the game who is the Steeler’s top guy. Porter Jr is allowing the fewest fantasy points per route run, but is allowing the most yards by a Steeler corner. With an increase in targets with no Flowers, Bateman should be able to work in space and find a solid amount of receptions against Porter Jr.

Honorable Mentions: Nico Collins. George Pickens. Quentin Johnston. Calvin Austin III

Value WRs: DJ Chark. Derius Davis. Nelson Agholor. Robert Woods.

The TEs

Mark Andrews ($6200 DK, $6200 FD)

As I mentioned above the Ravens will be without their top wide receiver, Zay Flowers. Andrews who started off the season slow seemed to pick it up as the season was ending. He has reached double-digit points in seven of his final eight games and is averaging 13.9 points in that span. The Steelers are allowing the 8th most fantasy points (14.4) and are tiedfor the second-most receptions allowed (106) to opposing tight ends. Andrews had only six receptions for 59 yards and a touchdown in his first two games against the Steelers, but he is still the best tight end option on the slate.

Honorable Mentions: Isaiah Likely. Will Dissly. Pat Freiermuth. Dalton Schultz.

Drago’s Best Bets:

Texans ML (+136) vs Chargers
Ravens -8.5 (-112) vs Steelers
Quentin Johnston Over 43.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
CJ Stroud Over 13.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Rashod Bateman Over 47.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Justice Hill Over 29.5 Rush + Receiving Yards (-115)

3 months ago 0 comments

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NFL Week 18 Saturday Slate

David Jones 3 months ago

written by David Jones

Welcome to Week 18’s Saturday slate of the NFL season. Both games on the slate have playoff implications. The Browns however are dead on arrival. The purpose of this article is to give a quick cheat sheet at how I will be building my DFS lineups.

The QBs:

Joe Burrow
Russell Wilson

I have to assume Lamar Jackson will not get a full game here with the spread being -20.

The RBs:

Khalil Herbert: We of course need confirmation about if Chase Brown will play. If he is out, Herbert is the top option.
Jaylen Warren/Najee Harris: These are the same guy to me. It appears more are flocking to Warren in GPP, so going over the field on Harris is something I am considering against a poor Bengals rush defense.
Derrick Henry: He won’t be paying a full game, but he will be scoring.

Others to consider

D’Onta Foreman: He should serve as the Browns lead back. He is cheap but will be in a terrible offense. He may have a better shot to score if the Ravens pull their defensive starters which isn’t a guarantee.
Keaton Mitchell should fill in for as the Ravens primary back when Henry is off the field.

The WRs:

Ja’Marr Chase: Lock
George Pickens
Tee Higgins: He is currently questionable, Andrei Iosivas would step into a larger role if Higgins were ruled out
Rashad Bateman
Zay Flowers

Value:

Calvin Austin
Mike Williams
Elijah Moore
Michael Woods ( if he is out Jamari Thrash, James Proche and Kaden Davis would get a bump in playing time at min price)

The TEs

Pat Freiermuth: I play tight ends against the Bengals
Darnell Washington

Defense

Ravens

CORE:

Joe Burrow
Khalil Herbert if Chase Brown is out
Ja’Marr Chase
Steelers TE
Ravens D

Make sure to hop in our Expert Discord Chat for FREE! We will be there answering questions all day and all night!

3 months ago 0 comments

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NFL Week 17 Saturday Slate

Ivan Herrera 4 months ago

written by Ivan Herrera

Welcome to Week 17’s Saturday slate of the NFL season. All three games on the slate have playoff implications so expect the teams fighting for a playoff spot to treat this game as a do-or-die situation.

The QBs:

Bo Nix ($6200DK, $8600FD)

The best rookie quarterback not named Jayden Daniels, Nix has the Broncos a win away from clinching a playoff spot. On Saturday he takes on the Bengals who are in a must-win game to stay alive in the playoff heading into the final week. The Bengals are coming off holding Dorian Thompson-Robinson to only 9.2 DraftKings points, but before that, the Bengals have struggled against quarterbacks in fantasy. They are allowing the fourth most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks at 20.9. One of the main reasons they are allowing the fourth most points is because they have given up the most rushing yards to quarterbacks, 479 yards. That is something that Nix can take advantage of as he is 10th in rushing yards by a quarterback this season with 352 yards.

Who to pair him with: Courtland Sutton. Devaughn Vele, Marvin Mims Jr

Joe Burrow ($7200DK, $7500FD)

Staying in the Denver/Cincinnati game, Burrow is very much in play on Saturday. Over the past seven games, he has had at least 250 yards and three touchdowns in each of them and has only thrown a combined five interceptions in that span. The Broncos are a stronger defense than the seven he has played over that stretch, allowing the fifth-lowest fantasy points to quarterbacks at 16.5. This game has the highest total on the slate which means that Cincinnati will surely need another strong performance from Burrow to keep up in a potential shootout.

Who to pair him with: Ja’Marr Chase. Tee Higgins.

Honorable Mentions: Justin Herbert. Kyler Murray

The RBs:

JK Dobbins ($5800DK, $8000FD)

As of writing this Dobbins is expected to play, but if he is ruled out I will post an update on Discord. Dobbins hasn’t been seen since Week 12’s game against the Ravens. With the Chargers being down Gus Edwards for this game and Kimani Vidal not being able to get any momentum going, I’m expecting a significant workload for Dobbins. The Patriots are allowing the fourth most fantasy points to running backs, 21. At his price compared to other starters, Dobbins feels like one of the better plays on the slate if he is active.

Kyren Williams ($7500DK, $9200FD)

Heading up to the second highest-priced running back, Kyren Williams is a great play on Saturday. Williams has consistently put up solid fantasy numbers over on DraftKings, with only Week 11 being his lone single-digit fantasy performance. In his first game against the Cardinals, he had 15.2 points despite the game getting out of hand early on and getting a season-low 12 carries. The Cardinals are allowing the tenth most fantasy points to running backs, 20, and as long as the game doesn’t get out of hand like it did in Week 2, Williams should have plenty of opportunities to have a great fantasy day.

Honorable Mentions: Chase Brown (highest owned on DraftKings). James Conner. Audric Estime, Javonte Williams, Jaleel McLaughlin

The WRs:

Puka Nacua ($8000DK, $9100FD)

I was debating Nacua and Chase, but I am giving the slight edge to Nacua based on Chase having to deal with Patrick Surtain. Puka gets a better matchup against Sean Murphy-Bunting who is allowing the most fantasy points (.34), and yards (.9), and has the highest target percentage (20%) on the Cardinals. Puka leads the Rams in all three of those categories with .72 fantasy points and 3.49 yards per route ran, and has a target percentage of 39%. The numbers are too good to fade Nacua for me, while I’ll switch between him and Chase depending on the lineups, Nacua is a priority for me.

Ladd McConkey ($6600DK, $6600FD)

The Chargers found their franchise wide receiver with Ladd McConkey. He is having a great season as a rookie, and there is no reason to expect that to change on Saturday against the Patriots. Working out of the slot, McConkey should avoid Christian Gonzalez and instead lineup across Marcus Jones who has been the weakest of the Patriots wide receivers. McConkey has a 35.2% target share so he has been seeing the ball a lot, and is averaging 2.32 yards per route run. At his price, he is a hard player to pass on.

Honorable Mentions: Ja’Marr Chase. Courtland Sutton. Marvin Harrison Jr. Tee Higgins. Cooper Kupp, .

Value WRs: Marvin Mimms Jr. Devaughn Vele. Michael Wilson. Demarcus Robinson. Kayshon Boutte.

The TEs

Trey McBride ($6200 DK, $6100 FD)

I’m going with the highest-priced tight end as my favorite on the slate. McBride has been one of Murray’s favorite targets for the past five weeks. In the last five games, he has 55 targets for 43 receptions and 406 yards. The only issue for McBride this season is despite having 92 receptions, none of them have ended with a trip to the end zone. He should get plenty of chances this week as the Rams are allowing the tenth most receptions to tight ends.
If you don’t want to pay up on DraftKings and FanDuel then I would move down $2000 to Hunter Henry.

Honorable Mentions: Hunter Henry. Will Dissly. Tyler Higbee.

Drago’s Best Bets:

LA Chargers -5.5 (-108) vs New England Patriots
JK Dobbins Over 54.5 (-115) and 60+ Rushing Yards (+110)
Bo Nix Over 21.5 (-115) and 25+ Rushing Yards (+120)
Puka Nacua Over 86.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

4 months ago 0 comments

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NFL Week 17 Christmas Day Slate

Ivan Herrera 4 months ago

written by Ivan Herrera

Welcome to the Christmas Day slate of the NFL season. Both games on the slate have playoff implications so expect the four teams fighting for a playoff spot to treat this game as a do-or-die situation.

Happy Holidays to everyone! Hope you enjoy your day.

The QBs:

Lamar Jackson ($8000DK, $8600FD)

Starting with the best quarterback on the slate, Jackson is in play on Christmas Day. This is a do-or-die game for the Ravens, as a win will give them a chance to lead the AFC North if Pittsburgh loses to Kansas City earlier in the day. Stix’s model has Jackson as the highest scorer on the slate. The Texans are allowing the 13th most fantasy points against fantasy QBs and have given up an average of 17.9 points to opposing QBs this season.

Who to pair him with: Mark Andrews, Zay Flowers, Isaiah Likely

Patrick Mahomes ($6500DK, $7500FD)

The ankle did not seem to hinder Mahomes at all last week as he had his third-best fantasy day of the season. The Christmas Day game against the Steelers will be a tough test for Mahomes as they are the 5th best fantasy defense against QBs. They are allowing only 16 points to opposing quarterbacks. This is a big game for KC as a win will secure them the 1st seed in the AFC and will allow them to rest players in the final week of the season if they want to. I’m expecting Mahomes and the Chiefs to go out and try to secure this win so that Mahomes can rest for two weeks and get back to 100%.

Who to pair him with: Travis Kelce. Xavier Worthy. DeAndre Hopkins

Honorable Mentions: CJ Stroud. Russell Wilson

The RBs:

Joe Mixon ($7700DK, $8000FD)

If you had been on Discord on the 24th or today you would have seen Jason post his Mixon receiving ladder and I for one am following him. Mixon has been a great running back in his season with the Texans and he has been doing it both in the running and passing game. He is averaging 104.8 rushing plus receiving yards per game. On Christmas Day he takes on a Baltimore defense that is allowing the second-fewest rushing yards (65.5) but is also allowing the third-most receiving yards to running backs (42.1). With the injury to Tank Dell last week, we should see Mixon get more touches in the passing game as Nico Collins is the only active wide receiver with over 25 targets.

Derrick Henry ($8200DK, $9200FD)

Staying in the Houston vs Baltimore game, my RB2 on the slate is Derrick Henry. Henry had his best fantasy day since Week 9 last week against the Steelers where he ran for 162 and had 27 receiving yards. He looks to keep the momentum going this week against the Texans. Houston is allowing the seventh-fewest total yards to opposing running backs at 1657 yards (1227 rushing, 430 receiving). While I think it’ll be a tough game for Henry, he should be able to get enough touches to finish with a great fantasy day.

Honorable Mentions: Isiah Pacheco. Jaylen Warren. Kareem Hunt.

The WRs:

Nico Collins ($8100DK, 9100FD)

Like I mentioned above with Joe Mixon, the Houston receiver room is hurting with Nico Collins being their only active wide receiver from the original top three when the season started. Collins is averaging 8.8 targets per game and has 43 in Houston’s five games since returning from injury. Collins has the seventh-highest target % in the league with a target % of 29.2% and he is second in the league in FPRR with .67. He gets a good matchup against Brandon Stephens of Baltimore. Stephens is allowing the highest target % (17%) and fantasy points (.32). With no other real option at wide receiver for the Texans I expect Collins to see a season-high target number.

Xavier Worthy ($5600DK, $6600FD)

Worthy has been great for the Chiefs in his rookie season. His production didn’t take a hit with Hollywood Brown returning. He has seen back-to-back season-high 11 targets and has turned those 22 targets into 13 receptions for 111 yards and a touchdown. He has also seen three rushing attempts in back-to-back games for 40 yards and a score. While the Pittsburgh defense has been good this season, I still like Worthy for how he can be used in different ways. Worthy should see a lot of Cam Sutton who lines up as the Slot Corner 93% of the time. Sutton is a good matchup for him as he is allowing a Texan-high .4 fantasy points per route covered.

Honorable Mentions: DeAndre Hopkins. George Pickens. Zay Flowers. Rashod Bateman.

Value WRs: Xavier Hutchinson. Hollywood Brown. John Metchie III. Robert Woods. Calvin Austin III

The TEs

Mark Andrews ($4300 DK, $6100 FD)

Andrews is always in play and on Christmas Day it is no different. Andrews has had a great four-game stretch, he isaveraging 14.7 DraftKing points. He is going to face the Texans who are allowing the seventh fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends. Last week with no Dionate Johnson (Now released) and no Nelson Agholor (injury) Andrews was second in targets only two behind Zay Flowers. For Baltimore to have a shot to beat Houston they will likely have to rely on Andrews.

Honorable Mentions: Travis Kelce. Dalton Schultz. Isaiah Likely. Pat Freiermuth

Drago’s Best Bets:

Kansas City -3 (+100) vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Baltimore Ravens -5.5 (-105) vs Houston Texans
DeAndre Hopkins 40+ Receiving Yards (+105)
Mark Andrews 40+ Receiving Yards (-105)

4 months ago 0 comments

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NFL Week 16 Saturday Slate

Ivan Herrera 4 months ago

written by Ivan Herrera

Welcome to the first Saturday slate of the NFL season. Both games on the slate have playoff implications so expect the four teams fighting for a playoff spot to treat this game as a do-or-die situation.

The QBs:

Lamar Jackson ($8200DK, $8800FD)

Starting with the best quarterback on the slate, Jackson is in play on Saturday. This is a do-or-die game for the Ravens, as a win will give them the same record as Pittsburgh going into the final two games of the year. Stix’s model has Jackson as the highest scorer on the slate, and after what Jalen Hurts did to the Steeler’s defense, I wouldn’t put it past Jackson to have his best DFS performance of the season. The Steelers are the 4th-ranked team against fantasy QBs and have given up an average of 15.6 points to opposing QBs this season. Being projected at around 22.5% ownership, Jackson is a great play in all formats, along with the next QB on the list.

Who to pair him with: Mark Andrews, Zay Flowers, Isaiah Likely

CJ Stroud ($6000DK, $7200FD)

Stroud is the third-highest-owned and priced QB on the slate. He has hit a bit of a sophomore slump this season but that has been partly due to injuries to his top wide receivers. Stroud has a chance to outduel Patrick Mahomes and clinch Houston the AFC South title. The Chiefs have allowed the 13th fewest fantasy points (17.3) to opposing quarterbacks, but they have given up multiple 20+ fantasy performances to quarterbacks that season.

Who to pair him with: Nico Collins. Tank Dell. Dalton Schultz

Honorable Mentions: Patrick Mahomes. Russell Wilson

The RBs:

Derrick Henry ($8000DK, $9000FD)

Henry is always in play and this Saturday is no different. He is second in rushing with 1474 yards and is tied for most rushing touchdowns (13) by a running back. The Steelers are allowing the 10th fewest fantasy points (21.3) but that is the most points allowed by a team on the slate. They held Henry in check the last time they played, holding him to 65 rushing yards and a touchdown. With how tough all four defenses are, I want to rely on the best running back.

Najee Harris ($5700DK, $6600FD)

As I mentioned above all four defenses are good against the run so none of the running backs have a clear advantage on paper. I like Harris this week for his value, as he is the lowest-priced starting running back on the slate. The Ravens are allowing the seventh fewest fantasy points (20.4) but they are allowing the sixth most receiving yards to running backs at 41.4 yards. Harris is averaging 18.3 receiving yards and has had at least three receptions in five games this season including going 4 for 30 against the Ravens in their first matchup.

Honorable Mentions: Isiah Pacheco. Joe Mixon. Justice Hill

The WRs:

Nico Collins ($8100DK, 9000FD)

Collins is my favorite wide receiver on the slate and he is projected to be the third-highest-scoring player on the slate based on the Win Daily projections. Since coming back from injury he is averaging 5.3 receptions for 70.5 yards and found the end zone three times. I mentioned with Stroud above that this is a big game for Houston as they can clinch the division and they can put pressure on the AFC North winner for the third seed. Collins will need to come up big against Joshua Williams who has been one of the better corners this season.

Zay Flowers ($5900DK, $7200FD)

The dip in price between the highest priced WR, Collins, and Flowers who is second is interesting. Being priced 2.2K less than Collins on DK makes him a much better play for me. The projection model has Flowers as the second-best wide receiver on the slate. With the injuries to the other Raven wide receivers, Flowers should see an uptick in targets. Flowers gets a great matchup against James Pierre who has been the worst Steeler corner in fantasy this season.

Honorable Mentions: DeAndre Hopkins. Tank Dell. Xavier Worthy. Calvin Austin III.

Punt WRs: Tylan Wallace and Devontez Walker. The Ravens’ wide receiver room is depleted, so Wallace and Walker can see more work this week. Neither is a sure thing, but in a two-game slate, they can make a difference if they can find the end zone.

The TEs

Mark Andrews ($4300 DK, $6000 FD)

As I have mentioned above, the Ravens are down to their WR4/WR5 due to injuries and off-the-field issues. Andrews started the season slow but has picked it up over the last couple of weeks averaging 15 points on DraftKings over the past three weeks. The Steelers are allowing the 16th most fantasy points per game (12.2) and the 12th most receptions (76). Andrew’s first game against the Steelers was one of his worst since regaining his form and is the only game of the last five where he failed to reach the end zone.

Honorable Mentions: Travis Kelce. Dalton Schultz. Isaiah Likely.

Drago’s Best Bets:

Houston Texans ML (+150) vs Kansas City Chiefs
Baltimore Ravens Alt Line -4.5 (-158) vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Justice Hill 25+ Receiving Yards (+110)
Joe Mixon Over 87.5 Rush + Receiving Yards (-115)

4 months ago 0 comments

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NFL Super Bowl LVIII Showdown

Ivan Herrera 1 year ago

written by Ivan Herrera

Welcome to the final slate of the 2023–24 NFL season. After 21 grueling weeks, the NFL season comes down to two teams. On the AFC side, you have the defending Super Bowl Champions, the Kansas City Chiefs, and on the NFC side, you have the San Francisco 49ers, who are looking to avenge their 2020 loss to the Chiefs.

The purpose of this article is to break down the best plays on both the DFS and betting sides. The article will include my favorite plays and honorable mentions for every DFS position. You can also find my favorite bets in Drago’s Best Bets section at the end of the article.

The QBs:

Patrick Mahomes ($10.6K DK, $15K FD)

Mahomes needs no introduction; the KC QB is looking to secure his third ring in just seven years. This was an off year for Mahomes; he had a career high 67.2% completion percentage but nearly had career lows in passing yards and touchdowns. Mahomes also had a career high of 14 thrown interceptions this season. But he has managed to have three solid outings in the playoffs to get Kansas City into the Super Bowl. He faces a 49er pass defense that, outside of the first half against the Lions, has looked good during the postseason. Mahomes’s legs are going to have to play a big role during the Super Bowl as the 49ers pass rush can get after QBs.

For me, Mahomes is playable in the CPT/MVP spots or as a Flex play. I’ll have Mahomes in about 35–45% of my lineups, with 10–15% of those lineups having him at the CPT/MVP spots.

Brock Purdy ($10K DK, $14.5K FD)

Whether you think of Purdy as nothing more than a game manager or as a legit MVP candidate, you can’t deny he has played a role in the 49ers making it to Las Vegas. During the regular season, Purdy was one of the better QBs in the NFL, finishing in the top five in passing yards (5th), completion percentage (4th), touchdowns (3rd), and QBR (T1st). But during his two playoff games this season, he has not been able to duplicate his in-season success, as he is averaging fewer yards and touchdowns and has a lower completion percentage per game. His matchup for the SB doesn’t get any easier, as he has to deal with a Kansas City Chiefs defense that has stopped Tua Tagovailoa, Josh Allen, and Lamar Lamar in their three playoff games. The KC pass defense has allowed an average of 219 passing yards per game during the playoffs and only three touchdown passes while grabbing two interceptions.

For the 49ers to have a chance, Purdy will need to play like the MVP finalist he was. With the weapons at his disposal, I do believe he is going to use every weapon available to try and help SF secure their sixth ring in team history. I will be playing Purdy at either the CPT/MVP spots or the Flex spot on every site. My ownership of Purdy on DraftKings and FanDuel will be similar to Mahomes, so I’ll be looking at the 35–45% range, with about 15-20% of those being at the CPT/MVP spots.

The RBs:

Christian McCaffrey ($12K DK, $17.5K FD)

McCaffrey is the highest-priced guy on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and that is for a good reason. The 2023 Offensive Player of the Year is one of the main reasons why SF gets to travel to Vegas to take on KC. He has averaged 130 total yards and two touchdowns during the playoffs. His ability to not only run but also catch passes out of the backfield will play a huge role, as Purdy may face pressure for large parts of this game. McCaffrey will be the most owned guy in my lineups, as I am going to use him in about 65-70% of my lineups, spread out between both the CPT/MVP and Flex spots. I’d rather have the best offensive player on the field than lose because I didn’t use him.

Isaiah Pacheco ($8K DK, $12.5K FD)

The second-year RB has been a great compliment to KC’s passing game. Pacheco is one of the hardest running backs I have seen in a while, and his rushing yards reflect that. Pacheco has 254 rushing yards and three touchdowns in his three playoff games this season. He gets an interesting matchup in the Super Bowl as the 49ers defense hasn’t been as great as they were during the regular season. They have allowed Aaron Jones and David Montgomery to have good games against them. With the way Pacheco has been running, I can see the SF defense once again struggling to stop the run game. My ownership of Pacheco will be in the 45–55% range.

The Backup Backs:

Both the 49ers and Chiefs have backup RBs that can see the field, but outside of MME, I am not using many of them. On the SF side, Elijah Mitchell has 79 carries for 288 yards and three touchdowns this season. Outside of McCaffrey suffering an injury, Mitchell will not see the field outside of a carry or two when CMC needs a breather. On the KC side, Pacheco’s backup is former first-round pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire. CEH has not had much of a workload this season, only having double-digit touches three times all year. The way Pacheco has run all season makes it difficult to see him leaving the field. I’ll have both of these guys in under 5% of my lineups, with maybe a lineup or two with them at CPT/MVP.

Technically not a RB, but one lower-priced player listed at RB that I am taking a shot at is Kyle Juszczyk. He is not a player who is going to light up the scoresheet, but he has shown to be a security blanket for Purdy during the QBs short career so far. We saw it against the Lions during the conference title game. When Purdy had to run around behind the line of scrimmage, he was able to connect with the fullback on a nice play. Juszczyk will be featured in 7–10% of my lineups.

The WRs:

Brandon Aiyuk ($8.8K DK, $10.5K FD)

Despite having 14 targets, Aiyuk has struggled a bit during the postseason, only having six catches in the 49ers two playoff games. But I don’t see that struggle continuing during the Super Bowl. While San Francisco has great players like McCaffrey, whom I’ve mentioned prior, and Samuel, whom I’ll mention in a moment, Aiyuk is their best pass catcher. I think the attention will be more on McCaffrey and Samuel, so Aiyuk should find some space to have a successful Super Bowl. I’ll have him in about 35–40% of my lineups, with a small percentage of those being in the CPT/MVP spots.

Deebo Samuel ($9.2K DK, $11.5K FD)

The second-best playmaker on the SF roster behind McCaffrey. With Samuel being an explosive player, he will be lined up in the backfield at points during the game. I expect Samuel to finish only behind McCaffrey in touches for the 49ers. Snead should be splitting his snaps between Aiyuk and Samuel, which means one of them should always have a better matchup when Snead is on the other one. I will have more Samuel lineups than Aiyuk, so he’ll be around 40–45% owned by me.

Jauan Jennings ($4K DK, $7K FD)

Jennings isn’t going to light up the scoresheet by any means. But he has been targeted a good amount on third downs during the season. He is not someone I am prioritizing, but I will have him in about 5–7% of my lineups. With all my ownership being in the Flex spot.

Rashee Rice ($7.6K DK, $11K FD)

If you read any of my articles last season during the CFB season, you will know Rice is one of my favorite WRs. His breakout rookie performance is not shocking to me, and I expect him to continue turning heads during the Super Bowl. With every KC WR struggling over the course of the season, Rice has taken control of the WR1 spot. He has over 1100 yards this season, including in the playoffs. Being KC’s second-best pass catcher behind TE Kelce makes Rice a solid option at both CPT/MVP and the Flex spots. He will be one of my highest-owned guys, with 50–55% ownership in my lineups.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($3K DK, $7.5K FD)

MVS is one of my favorite value plays for the Super Bowl. He has not had much success this season, only having 26 receptions all year, including the playoffs. But during the AFC Championship game, Mahomes targeted him in what ended up being the game-clinching 32-yard reception. If Mahomes and Reid are going to trust him during clutch time, who am I to doubt him? MVS will be featured in 15-20% of my lineups for the Super Bowl, with a handful of times appearing in the CPT/MVP spot.

There are a handful of other WRs who will be active for the Super Bowl, like Conley and McCloud for SF and Watson, Moore, Hardman, and James for KC. I have little interest in the majority of them, as I think the four WRs listed above are the ones I would focus on more. But that is not to say I will not include each of them in a lineup; none will be used in more than 5% of my lineups.

The TEs

Travis Kelce ($10.2K DK, $13K FD)

Starting off the TE section with the best TE over the past couple of years. Kelce has played a huge role in Kansas City’s success since superstar WR Tyreek Hill left for Miami. Kelce leads all KC pass catchers with 116 receptions and 1246 yards. Kelce is going to have to play a huge role if KC wants to win back-to-back Super Bowls and gets a great matchup to succeed in. The SF defense has struggled to contain TEs the back half of the year, giving up big games, including to rookie Sam LaPorta two weeks ago. Based on the matchup, I am going to have a lot of Kelce in about 50–55% of lineups.

George Kittle ($6.4K DK, $10K FD)

Kittle sometimes gets forgotten about, with SF having a lot of great weapons. But he is still one of the best TEs in the NFL. In the 49ers two playoff games, he has six receptions for 108 yards and a touchdown. The KC defense has been great all playoffs, but with the secondary having to deal with Aiyuk and Samuel, Kittle can be in for a great day as they will not be focused on him. I will have Kittle in 30–35% of my lineups, with about 7–10% being in the CPT/MVP spot, as he will not be highly owned there currently, only projected at about 5%.

The D/ST and Kickers

Starting off with the D/ST, both sides are in play for the Super Bowl. Outside of small lapses during the playoffs, both defenses in this game have been good. The one I will have more of, despite thinking they will lose in the end, is the KC D/ST. Sacks are going to be big in this game, and with the 49er offensive line struggling and allowing Purdy to face a lot of pressure, I can see KC getting to Purdy a lot during the game. For the Super Bowl, the KC D/ST will be in 15-20% of my lineups. On the other side, I like the SF D/ST as well. Their front seven is one of the best in the league, and they can stop just about anyone when they are clicking. I will have fewer of them than KC, but they will still be in 10-15% of lineups.

The two kickers for the Super Bowl are two of the better-value plays on the slate. Both kickers will be featured in about 15-20% of my lineups. I think the game is going to go over, so I’m expecting both Butker and Moody to have FG attempts and PATs.

Favorite Plays

CPTs/MVPs:

Christian McCaffrey
Rashee Rice
Deebo Samuel
Isaiah Pacheco
George Kittle

Flex Plays:

Patrick Mahomes
Brock Purdy
Travis Kelce
Chiefs D/ST
Brandon Aiyuk
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Both Kickers
49ers D/ST
Kyle Juszczyk

Drago’s Best Bets:

San Francisco ML
Over 47.5

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NFL Week 18 Saturday Slate

Ivan Herrera 1 year ago

written by Ivan Herrera

Welcome to the last regular season Saturday slate for the NFL season. Both games on the slate have playoff implications so expect the three teams fighting for a playoff spot to treat this game as a do-or-die situation.

Before we get to my favorite plays for the weekend, I want to point out that this isn’t a regular week so make sure you are locked in prior to kickoff to make sure everyone in your lineup is playing.

The QBs:

CJ Stroud ($7300DK, $8300FD)

Let’s start this article off with the favorite to win the OROY. The Colts were Stroud’s second-ever start back in Week 2, and it was his breakout performance where he threw for 384 yards and two touchdowns. With a playoff spot on the line, I’m trusting Stroud against the Colts and their 18th-ranked defense against QBs.

Who to pair him with: Nico Collins. Xavier Hutchinson. Dalton Schultz

Mason Rudolph ($5400DK, $6800FD)

Rudolph is set to make his third start of the year. They will need some help on Sunday to make the playoffs, but they will first need to beat the Ravens on Saturday. Rudolph has had mixed performances in his first two starts of the year. He played well against the Bengals on Christmas Eve, and he followed that up by struggling a bit against Seattle. The Ravens this week are going to rest most of their starters since they secured first place in the AFC. So Rudolph will have to deal with a weaker defense than he would have if it were earlier in the year.

Who to pair him with: George Pickens. Diontae Johnson

Honorable Mentions: Gardner Minshew. Tyler Huntley.

The RBs:

Jonathan Taylor ($7400DK, $9200FD)

The highest-priced RB and the top-scoring RB on the slate, according to Stix’s model, Taylor has averaged 73.3 rushing yards per game and seven total touchdowns in his last seven since retaking control of the backfield. Houston has a solid rush defense, but the last time these two met, Houston could not contain Moss, who had 88 yards and a score on the ground. The Colts are in a must-win game, and it would shock me if they didn’t use their best player to help them get the win.

Jaylen Warren ($5400DK, $6000FD)

While I like his teammate Harris a lot too, I want to use Warren, as he has been averaging 4.5 receptions on 5.3 targets over the past four games. He has also seen at least three targets and seven rushing attempts in each of his last 10 games. With the Ravens sitting a good amount of their starters, Warren could see some nice catches out of the backfield.

Honorable Mentions: Devin Singletary. Najee Harris. Gus Edwards. Melvin Gordon

The WRs:

Michael Pittman Jr. ($7500DK, $7700FD)

There is not much to say about Pittman Jr.; he is the best WR on the slate. Pittman comes into the game as the seventh most targeted WR, averaging 10 targets per game. Pittman also ranks sixth in catch percentage among WRs with 100 receptions this season. The volume of targets plus this being a must-win game should make Pittman the top-scoring WR on this small slate.

Nico Collins ($8700DK, $8000FD)

With Brown ruled out and Woods questionable for Saturday, I will want all the Collins I can get. Collins has 100 targets this season, despite missing three games earlier in the year. Like I mentioned with Taylor, this is a must-win game for both teams, so I’ll be shocked if Houston doesn’t target Collins early and often.

Honorable Mentions: Xavier Hutchinson. George Pickens. Diontae Johnson. Josh Downs. Nelson Agholor.

The TEs

Isaiah Likely ($4800 DK, $6400 FD)

Likely is my favorite play on the Ravens. Jackson, OBJ, and Zay Flowers have all been ruled out, so their best weapon left is likely. Huntley isn’t a young QB, but the saying that young QBs love their TEs can also be used with backup QBs. This is likely a big security blanket for Huntley, as since this is a rivalry game, expect the Ravens to want to end any hope of the Steelers making the playoffs.

Honorable Mentions: Dalton Schultz. Pat Freiermuth. Charlie Kolar. Kylen Granson.

Favorite Value Plays:

Xavier Hutchinson, WR
Melvin Gordon, RB
Robert Woods, WR
Nelson Agholor, WR
Rashod Bateman, WR
Charlie Kolar, TE
Kylen Granson, TE

Drago’s Best Bets:

Houston -1.5
Steelers -2.5
Michael Pittman Jr Over 78.5 Receiving Yards
Nico Collins Over 73.5 Receiving Yards

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NFL Week 16 Christmas Day Slate

Ivan Herrera 1 year ago

written by Ivan Herrera

Welcome to the three game Christmas slate that the NFL has gifted us this season. Want to start off by saying happy holidays to everyone who celebrates one of the many traditions that occur this time of year. Hopefully all of you have had a wonderful weekend.

The QBs:

Patrick Mahomes ($7500DK, $8300FD)

There is not much to say here. Mahomes is one of the best QBs in the NFL and is getting the Raiders on Christmas. In their first matchup, he scored 20+, and we should see a similar outing this week. The pricing for QB this week is pretty soft, so we don’t need to worry about spending a lot of salary on QB.

Who to pair him with: Travis Kelce. Rashee Rice

Brock Purdy ($6700DK, $7800FD)

Purdy is currently the favorite to win MVP, and this game will go a long way toward securing him the award. The game should be a shootout, despite both having solid defenses. Look for Purdy to get the ball out quickly with all his weapons around him. I lovehis price at 6.7K as well on DK.

Who to pair him with: Deebo Samuel. Brandon Aiyuk

Honorable Mentions: Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts

The RBs:

Christian McCaffrey is always in play, so if you have the salary on either site to play him, go right ahead. The two I listed before are my favorites outside of CMC.

D’Andre Swift ($6,000 DK, $7500 FD)

The Eagles need to use Swift more. He has been a great piece of the offense, but they seem to abandon him as the game goes on. The game against the Giants is a great spot to start building his confidence as the Eagles head into the playoffs. The Giants rank 22nd against fantasy RBs, so if the Eagles give him a chance, he should put up great numbers.

Isaiah Pacheco ($6400DK, $7200FD)

For the past two weeks, Pacheco has been one of the best RBs in the NFL. He gets a favorable matchup against a Raider side, for whom he ran for 55 yards and two touchdowns in their first meeting. Both Pacheco and Swift are on offenses that have a star QB, but if they are both allowed to run, they’ll have great numbers.

Honorable Mentions: Josh Jacobs.

The WRs:

Davante Adams ($7300DK, $7500FD)

Since Week 9, Adams has averaged 6.6 receptions and 79 yards and has scored twice on 11 targets per game. KC should be up most of the game, so expect the Raiders to be pass heavy as the game goes on. And the biggest beneficiary of the increased passing will be Adams.

Deebo Samuel ($8700DK, $8300FD)

The WR version of McCaffrey. There isn’t much I can say about Deebo that hasn’t been said since he joined the league. The Niners vs. Ravens game is the highest on the slate, and both teams should play fast, so Samuel will have a lot of work. His teammate Brandon Aiyuk, who is more of a WR, should also be considered for Monday.

Devonta Smith ($5000DK, $7000FD)

The Eagles are riding a losing streak, but they are taking on a terrible pass defense to help them get out of it. While AJ Brown has been the better Eagle WR over the past couple of weeks, Smith has still put up solid numbers. The Giants allow the sixth-most catches to WRs, so expect both WRs to find success against them.

Honorable Mentions: AJ Brown. Brandon Aiyuk. Wan’Dale Robinson. Rashee Rice. Zay Flowers

The TEs

Isaiah Likely ($4200DK, $5900FD)

Since Mark Andrews injury against the Bengals on week 11, he is likely second to the Ravens with 19 targets, only one behind Zay Flowers. The Ravens are going to have a tough matchup against the Niners to close Week 16, so they will need to use all their weapons to win this game. While the Niners do have a strong defense, they are the second-worst team against TEs in fantasy. If Likely can continue his two-game streak of at least five receptions, 70 yards, and a touchdown, then he will be the best value on the slate, especially on DK.

Honorable Mentions: Travis Kelce. Dallas Goedert. George Kittle

Drago’s Best Bets:

SF ML
Eagles -13.5
Chiefs -10.5

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NFL Week 16 Saturday Slate

Ivan Herrera 1 year ago

written by Ivan Herrera

Welcome to the first Saturday slate of the NFL season. Both games on the slate have playoff implications so expect the three teams fighting for a playoff spot to treat this game as a do-or-die situation.

The QBs:

Josh Allen ($8100DK, $7800FD)

Starting with the best QB on the slate, Allen is very much in play on Saturday. This is a do-or-die game for the Bills, as a win can get them into a wildcard spot going into the final two games of the year. Stix’s model has Allen as the highest scorer on the slate, and after what rookie Aidan O’Connell did to the Chargers defense, I wouldn’t put it past Allen to have his best DFS performance of the season. LAC ranks as the 27th-ranked team against fantasy QBs and has given up an average of 17.7 points to opposing QBs over the last five weeks. Being projected at over 50% ownership, Allen is better in SE and 3max entries, along with the next QB on the list.

Who to pair him with: Stefon Diggs, Dalton Kincaid

Jake Browning ($6100DK, $7000FD)

Browning is the second-highest-owned and priced QB on the slate. He has been nothing but productive since taking over the starting role from the injured Burrow. He has put up three straight games of over 20 points on DraftKings (just missed on FanDuel last week by.04 points) and has a chance to make up for his worse start this season, where he struggled in his first game against the Steelers. The Bengals currently hold the 6th seed in the conference but are in a four-way tie and have Pittsburgh and Denver just one game behind them.

Who to pair him with: Tee Higgins, Tanner Hudson

Honorable Mentions: None

The RBs:

James Cook ($6900DK, $7500FD)

Cook is the highest projected scoring RB on the slate after having his best two games of the season over the last two weeks. Cook has been one of the better RBs over the past five weeks, seeing 5.4 more touches per game in that span than he did in the first nine weeks of the season. And just like his QB, Cook gets the best matchup on the slate, as the Chargers are also 27th against fantasy RBs.

Austin Ekeler ($7200DK,

Ekeler is the highest priced RB on DraftKings, which isn’t great, so I would rather play him more on FanDuel, where he is $1500 and $1700 less than Mixon and Cook. Over the past five weeks, Ekeler has been bad, as he has only hit double-digit fantasy points in one game. The matchup against the Bills strong rush defense isn’t ideal, but Ekeler has been getting work in the passing game, averaging five targets over the last five. With Stick once again being the QB for the Chargers, expect Ekeler to have more than just the nine touches he had last week.

Honorable Mentions: Joe Mixon, Najee Harris.

The WRs:

Tee Higgins ($6500DK, 8100FD)

No Chase, no problem. Higgins two touchdowns last Saturday helped lead the Bengals over the Vikings. Higgins is second in targets per game for the Bengals, with 6.6 per game. That number should increase with Chase missing the game. His price on both sites not increasing too much makes him a great partner for the next WR on the list, who is $1100 and $2200 more on FD and DK.

Stefon Diggs ($8700DK, $7900FD)

Being priced 2.2K more than the second highest WR on the slate on DK makes him less desirable, but he is still a great play as the Chargers can’t stop anyone at this point. Stix’s model has Diggs as the best WR and the second-best player overall on the slate. Diggs is currently projected at over 65% ownership, so I am fine with fading him if you want to go against the field in SE.

Joshua Palmer ($5000DK,

Palmer was one of the only bright spots in what was a terrible Chargers game on Thursday night. He finished with 24.3 points on DraftKings and 19.3 on FD. With Allen once again being ruled out, Palmer will be the main target for Stick, who didn’t look great. The Bills should be up all game, so the script should call for a lot of passing from the Chargers, and Palmer will greatly benefit from it.

Honorable Mentions: Tyler Boyd. Diontae Johnson. George Pickens.

The TEs

Gerald Everett ($3,500 DK, $6800 FD)

My favorite value play on the slate. Just like Palmer, Everett should benefit from the lack of Allen once again. Over the past four games, he has had at least four catches and 39 yards per game. He is very cheap and should be one of the most targeted TEs on the small slate.

Honorable Mentions: Pat Freiermuth. Dalton Kincaid. Tanner Hudson

Drago’s Best Bets:

Bengals -3.5
Joe Mixon Any Time Touchdown
James Cook Any Time Touchdown
Stefon Diggs Over 69.5 Receiving Yards

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