NFL DFS Sleepers

Welcome back for the Week 16 NFL DFS Cash Game and GPP Breakdown. This week, it’s a condensed nine-game slate with mediocre totals (other than Dallas @ Miami). If you haven’t yet, please check out the 1st and Stix Podcast… that will include a higher level, game-by-game breakdown (this week was another Podcast BYE week. Hoping to be back after the Holiday travel season).

As always, we can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is to identify our model/plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up) in addition to my favorite NFL DFS GPP tournament plays. Let’s have ourselves a NFL DFS season!

Highest Implied Team Totals for Week 15 (teams we want to try to get exposure to):
– Miami Dolphins (26)
– Detroit Lions (25)
– Dallas Cowboys (24.5)
– Chicago Bears (24)
– Atlanta Falcons (23.5)

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

You do not need me to tell you to pay up for studs like Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen etc. If you want to play them, you know who to stack them with and get after it.

• Dak Prescott ($7,900 DK / $8,500 FD) – The no-brainer type of pay-up this week in an anticipated shootout and a must-win type of mindset for both teams fighting for playoff seeding. Dak is in play for all formats this week.
  
  Stack Options: CeeDee Lamb, Jake Ferguson, Tony Pollard
  Bring-Back Options: Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, De’Von Achane
  
• Justin Fields ($7,100 DK / $8,300 FD) – Likely the most popular quarterback on the Week 16 NFL DFS main-slate but for good reason. This is a cake matchup against the Cardinals (31st in pass defense DVOA) and Fields is playing for a future contract. Lock him in your cash game lineups and feel free to fire him up in GPPs, just get different somewhere.
  
  Stack Options: DJ Moore, Cole Kmet
  Bring-Back Options: Trey McBride, Michael Wilson
  
• Trevor Lawrence ($6,600 DK / $7,900 FD) – It sounds like T-Law is going to pass “concussion protocol” and be wheels up against the pass-funnel defense of the Tampa Bay Bucs. We don’t need to discuss how poor the Bucs’ have been on defense lately…
  
  Stack Options: Calvin Ridley, Evan Engram
  Bring-Back Options: Mike Evans, Rachaad White, Chris Godwin
  
• Kyler Murray ($6,400 DK / $7,600 FD) – I’ll go right back to Kyler again this week. I absolutely loved him last week at 2-5% ownership against a banged up 49ers’ defense and now he gets a significant matchup upgrade against the Bears. The Bears’ defense has been much better than the public gives them credit for, but on a small slate with a lot of mediocre quarterbacks, give me the solid value on a dual-threat quarterback with a condensed target share.
  
  Stack Options: Trey McBride, Michael Wilson
  Bring-Back Options: DJ Moore

Honorable Mention: Jared Goff, Geno Smith

NFL DFS Running Backs

Similar to the quarterback introduction, you do not need me to tell you to play Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, or Austin Ekeler. I like to prioritize running backs who grade as a value (expected fantasy points / salary) and have a clear path to 15+ touches in any gamescript. Some weeks, I will certainly highlight the studs, but this is more to help you find some value.

• Rachaad White ($7,400 DK / $7,700 FD) – Just pure usage here. It’s hard to find anyone other than Kyren Williams and Christian McCaffrey who get 20+ touches a week. The Jaguars have given up over 160 rushing yards over the past three weeks.
  
• Jonathan Taylor ($7,200 DK / $9,000 FD) – Probably a bit too expensive on FanDuel, but a great price on DraftKings. It looks like Zack Moss will be out with the arm injury leading to a strong workload for the talented RB1 for the Colts. The Falcons’ defense ranks dead last in DVOA against opposing RBs and have given up over 110 rushing yards per game over the past three weeks. This Falcons’ defense really misses Grady Jarrett. More of a cash game play for me at the current ownership.
  
• Aaron Jones ($6,400 DK / $6,700 FD) – Like Walker below, the prices on Aaron Jones (if AJ Dillon is OUT) are way too low for a prime matchup against the Carolina Panthers and their 31st ranked run defense (DVOA). This is an excellent pivot away from some of the chalk in the upper $6K range.
  
• Bijan Robinson ($6,300 DK / $7,100 FD) – If you can stomach it… GPP only.
  
• Kenneth Walker ($6,200 DK / $6,800 FD) – Way too cheap on both outlets against a Titans’ defense that will likely be without key run stoppers Jack Gibbens, Luke Gifford, and of course, Jeffery Simmons. They’ve given up over 120 rushing yards per game over the past three weeks.
  
• Chuba Hubbard ($5,700 DK / $6,400 FD) – Another great value for a running back getting 18+ touches on a weekly basis. Like last week, we will continue to pick on the Green Bay Packers’ run defense.
  
• Roschon Johnson ($4,800 DK / $5,400 FD) – No D’Onta Foreman opens up a lot of value for rookie, Roschon Johnson.

Honorable Mention: Rachaad White, De’Von Achane, Tony Pollard, Jahmyr Gibbs, Ty Chandler

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Like the positions above, you don’t need me to write-up every single stud on the slate. Guys like Justin Jefferson, Ja’Maar Chase, Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, CeeDee Lamb and AJ Brown are ALWAYS in play. I’ll likely highlight one or two of them each week, but I’d rather spend time helping you find ways to build a quality lineup instead of telling the obvious studs are probably a good play. This week, I love the top of this receiver board but there is plenty of value to make it all work.

• CeeDee Lamb ($9,200 DK / $9,400 FD) – The only consistent game in town for this Cowboys’ wide receiving core and gets a prime matchup against Kader Kohou. This is the highest total game on the slate by wide margin and we will want to make an effort to try to get a key contributor or two into our lineup if the salary cap allows.
  
• Justin Jefferson ($8,100 DK / $9,200 FD) – The passing props for Nick Mullens are truly remarkably high and it looks like the DFS community is going to jam in Justin Jefferson this week. It is a fantastic matchup against the Lions’ and their heavy use of Cover-2. I’m fine if you want to follow the crowd and give Jefferson serious consideration in cash game lineups.
  
• DJ Moore ($6,900 DK / $8,200 FD) – The WR1 going up against the Arizona Cardinals’ secondary. Justin Fields tunnels in on DJ Moore and the volume alone is worth this price (on DraftKings specifically).
  
• DK Metcalf ($6,700 DK / $7,600 FD) – Absolutely fire up our boy DK Metcalf against this depleted Titans’ defense who we’ve attacked all year long. I love this spot for him and would anticipate his ownership is sub-10% due to all of the pay-up options on this slate. He’s one of my favorite plays on the slate this week as the Titans’ will be without Amani Hooker and Sean Murphy-Bunting. In addition, Geno Smith is back.
  
• Calvin Ridley ($6,300 DK / $6,800 FD) – Incredible value for the only healthy pass-catcher on the outside for the Jaguars against the pass-funnel defense in Tampa Bay. He’s in play for all formats in NFL DFS this weekend.
  
• Garrett Wilson ($5,800 DK / $7,000 FD) – It’s gross, but the AETY Model still loves the value for Garrett Wilson against the worst secondary in the NFL despite the fact Trevor Siemian is the starting quarterback for the Jets.
  
• Drake London ($5,100 DK / $6,200 FD) – For whatever it’s worth, the AETY Model has nailed the big games for Drake London and it loves him again in Week 16. We always target the exterior pass-catchers going up against the Indianapolis Colts and we won’t stop this week despite the questionable quarterback play and coaching in Atlanta.
  
• Dontayvion Wicks ($4,300 DK / $5,400 FD) – If Jayden Reed is ruled out, I would expect the DFS community and optimizers to jam in Dontayvion Wicks. I am OKAY with this move in cash games, but in GPP tournaments, I think this is a bit of a coming out party (in terms of value) for Malik Heath ($3,200 DK / $4,400 FD).
  
• Michael Wilson ($3,700 DK / $5,100 FD) – 0% owned GPP dart-throw yet again this week. Marquise Brown is OUT for Week 16 and I’ll go right back to the well with the talented, big-bodied wideout. He blanked us last week but should have had 40+ receiving yards and a touchdown.

Honorable Mention: Tyreek Hill, Justin Jefferson, Mike Evans, Michael Pittman Jr., Amari Cooper, Jameson Williams, DJ Montgomery, Malik Heath

Tight-Ends

• Trey McBride ($5,700 DK / $7,000 FD) – Absolute mis-price on DraftKings. What else do we need to see from Trey McBride. He’s producing like the next coming of Rob Gronkowski and this is a fantastic matchup in an up-paced game against Chicago.
  
• Evan Engram ($5,400 DK / $6,300 FD) – It looks like the theme of this article is to pay-up at the tight-end position this week. If Zay Jones is out, Evan Engram becomes the WR2 for this Jaguars’ offense against the Bucs’ secondary we love to attack. I’d probably prefer the savings of Jake Ferguson if you’re not playing Trey McBride.
  
• David Njoku ($5,300 DK / $6,600 FD) – I likely won’t get here in DFS lineups this week, but it’s hard to overlook the domination Njoku has shown on a weekly basis with Joe Flacco under center.
  
• Jake Ferguson ($4,900 DK / $6,000 FD) – Cheap, high-upside exposure to the highest total game on the slate.

Honorable Mention: Sam LaPorta, TJ Hockenson, Cole Kmet, Kyle Pitts

Defense/Special Teams

• Cleveland Browns
• Seattle Seahawks
• New York Jets
• Miami Dolphins
• Carolina Panthers

The Fab Five (DK Cash Games)

• Justin Fields
• Calvin Ridley
• Chuba Hubbard
• Trey McBride
• Dontayvion Wicks (if Jayden Reed is OUT)

NFL DFS GPP Core Plays:

• Kyler Murray
• DK Metcalf
• DJ Moore
• Aaron Jones

Be sure to follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and DFS slate.

Welcome back for the Week 15 NFL DFS Cash Game and GPP Breakdown. This week, it’s another gross 10-game slate with mediocre totals. If you haven’t yet, please check out the 1st and Stix Podcast… that will include a higher level, game-by-game breakdown (this week was a Podcast BYE week).

As always, we can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is to identify our model/plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up) in addition to my favorite NFL DFS GPP tournament plays. Let’s have ourselves a NFL DFS season!

Highest Implied Team Totals for Week 15 (teams we want to try to get exposure to):
– San Francisco 49ers (30.5)
– Los Angeles Rams (28.5)
– Buffalo Bills (25.75)
– Dallas Cowboys (24)
– Green Bay Packers (23.25)

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

You do not need me to tell you to pay up for studs like Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen etc. If you want to play them, you know who to stack them with and get after it.

• Josh Allen ($8,200 DK / $9,000 FD) – The most expensive quarterback on the slate but the highest upside yet again this week. This is do-or-die time for the Buffalo Bills and the AETY Model expects another strong performance out of Josh Allen on Sunday. He’s the best play at the position for all formats. This is a condensed slate and with the pay-down values at QB drawing a lot of ownership, Josh Allen is likely going to come in around 5%.
  
  Stack Options: Stefon Diggs, Dalton Kincaid
  Bring-Back Options: CeeDee Lamb, Tony Pollard, Jake Ferguson
  
• Kyler Murray ($6,400 DK / $7,500 FD) – Kyler is not a play for the faint of heart this week. The sole reason no one will play him (making him an excellent, yet obvious risky GPP play) is because they see the 49ers’ defense is on the other side. What many people in the DFS community do not look into is the injury report. This week, the 49ers will be without Arik Armstead, Oren Burks, and Javon Hargrave (with Charvarius Ward and Dre Greenlaw questionable). That will certainly help the cause for Kyler and company to keep this game close and move the ball on offense.
  
  Kyler may not be a great real-life quarterback, but he fills it up from a fantasy perspective and should be in a pass-heavy gamescript from the jump as the Cardinals are a double-digit home underdog.
  
  Stack Options: Trey McBride, Marquise Brown, Michael Wilson
  Bring-Back Options: Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle
  
• Jordan Love ($6,200 DK / $8,000 FD) – Maybe a bit too pricey on FanDuel, but I’m continuing to pick on this Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ defense. They’ve been bleeding production through the air and just let Desmond Ridder of all people have a career game against them. The Packers and Bucs are both in “must-win” mode and should offer the DFS community a back-and-forth shootout type of atmosphere.
  
  Stack Options: Jayden Reed, Tucker Kraft
  Bring-Back Options: Mike Evans, Rachaad White
  
• Matthew Stafford ($6,000 DK / $7,200 FD) – Chalk quarterback of the week in the nut-matchup against the depleted sieve defense of Washington. We don’t need to say a whole lot more about how good this situation is on paper for Stafford and the Rams’ offense.
  
  Stack Options: Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, Kyren Williams
  Bring-Back Options: Terry McLaurin, Antonio Gibson, Logan Thomas

Honorable Mention: Brock Purdy, Sam Howell

NFL DFS Running Backs

Similar to the quarterback introduction, you do not need me to tell you to play Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, or Austin Ekeler. I like to prioritize running backs who grade as a value (expected fantasy points / salary) and have a clear path to 15+ touches in any gamescript. Some weeks, I will certainly highlight the studs, but this is more to help you find some value.

• Christian McCaffrey ($9,300 DK / $10,000 FD) – The best play on this board this week if salary cap is not an issue.
  
• Kyren Williams ($7,500 DK / $9,600 FD) – In cash games, I’m fine if you want to ride the chalk-train on Kyren Williams if you’re not playing Stafford. It’s hard to say anything negative about Kyren Williams and his current usage but I personally have a hard time wrapping my brain around paying this much in salary for Kyren Williams. On DraftKings, it’s not too much of a burden (though I would probably prefer Saquon Barkley for $200 less), but on FanDuel, just find the extra $400 for McCaffrey.
  
• Rachaad White ($7,000 DK / $7,600 FD) – Fantastic matchup and a similar workload to Kyren Williams. The Green Bay Packers’ refuse to defend the run game and White doesn’t leave the field. He is an excellent play in all formats.
  
• Bijan Robinson ($6,800 DK / $8,600 FD) – Way too cheap on DraftKings, but still in play on FanDuel in this matchup against the Carolina Panthers’ run defense. The weather is going to be messy which should lead to an above-average workload for one of the most talented, dual-threat players in the NFL.
  
• Ezekiel Elliott ($5,800 DK / $6,500 FD) – Only writing him up due to expected ownership and a cash-game value type of play. I want nothing to do with anyone on the Patriots’ dumpster fire of a football team, but if I have to use the savings that Elliott offers, in CASH GAMES ONLY, I’ll sleep just fine at night. In GPP lineups, I’d give serious consideration to James Conner ($5,700 DK / $6,300 FD).
  
• Antonio Gibson ($5,200 DK / $5,600 FD) – Cash game staple at this price and ownership.

Honorable Mention: Alvin Kamara, Saquon Barkley, Raheem Mostert (if Achane is OUT), Tony Pollard, Derrick Henry, James Conner

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Like the positions above, you don’t need me to write-up every single stud on the slate. Guys like Justin Jefferson, Ja’Maar Chase, Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, CeeDee Lamb and AJ Brown are ALWAYS in play. I’ll likely highlight one or two of them each week, but I’d rather spend time helping you find ways to build a quality lineup instead of telling the obvious studs are probably a good play. This week, I love the top of this receiver board but there is plenty of value to make it all work.

• Cooper Kupp ($7,800 DK / $8,200 FD) – Way too cheap for this matchup. The AETY Model absolutely loves this spot for Cooper Kupp and he’s firmly in play in all NFL DFS formats this weekend.
  
• Mike Evans ($7,500 DK / $8,300 FD) – I’ll always be interested in Mike Evans when he’s around the 5% ownership mark. This weekend, that will be the case against the Packers in what the AETY Model thinks should be a high-scoring affair. If Chris Godwin is limited or OUT, this offense will run through Rachaad White and Mike Evans. I’m all for a 3-2 type of game-stack here.
  
• Brandon Aiyuk ($7,200 DK / $7,800 FD) – Getting a key contributor from this 49ers’ offense will be a focal point for my lineups in Week 15. We’ve been targeting outside receivers against the Cardinals all season long. This is a team we want to get exposure to.
  
• Rashee Rice ($6,100 DK / $6,500 FD) – Still too cheap for Patrick Mahomes’ top target over the past three weeks. The Patriots will likely try their best to scheme Travis Kelce out of this game and they do not have the personnel to slow down both Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce. The Chiefs’ offense needs to kick it in gear on Sunday and will look to get Rice open in space all across the field and especially in the red-zone.
  
• Terry McLaurin ($5,600 DK / $6,700 FD) – I’m still a big believer in the talent of Terry McLaurin and this is the highest passing yard prop I’ve seen for Sam Howell this season. The majority of the DFS world is going to get exposure to both sides of this game and I can’t think of a better salary-saving upside play to fit that mold than Terry McLaurin. On DraftKings, it looks like his ownership will be high and worthy of cash-game consideration.
  
• Jayden Reed ($4,900 DK / $6,100 FD) – The Packers’ receiving core is quite banged up this week and will be without Christian Watson again on Sunday. Jayden Reed is simply the guy for Jordan Love and this price-tag is too sexy to avoid. I don’t really care what his ownership is, Reed is too involved in this offense to second-guess.
  
• Rashid Shaheed ($4,300 DK / $6,000 FD) – Value play on DraftKings specifically assuming that Chris Olave is OUT. He has the big play ability and should be in line for a 22% or higher expected target share. Against this Giants’ secondary and these prices, you could do worse.
  
• Wan’Dale Robinson ($3,700 DK / $5,300 FD) – Picking on Alontae Taylor on the inside of the Saints’ secondary. There is absolutely nothing sexy about rostering Wan’Dale Robinson, but he offers us enough of a floor to consider in cash games at this price.
  
• Michael Wilson ($3,300 DK / $5,100 FD) – 0% owned GPP dart-throw. It sounds like Michael Wilson will be back in action in Week 15 and I love his size advantage against the 49ers’ banged up secondary. If for some reason Charvarius Ward is ruled out, I love this spot even more for the salary-relief Wilson.

Honorable Mention: CeeDee Lamb, Deebo Samuel, Stefon Diggs, Puka Nacua, DeAndre Hopkins, Garrett Wilson, Romeo Doubs, Marquise Brown

Tight-Ends

• Dalton Kincaid ($5,300 DK / $5,600 FD) – Amazing price on both NFL DFS outlets. I was a bit worried to see the usage for Kincaid last week with the return of Dawson Knox, but it looks like the odd-man out will be Khalil Shakir. Kincaid is basically playing slot receiver and will have massive size and speed advantages in the Sunday afternoon shootout.
  
• Jake Ferguson ($4,800 DK Only) – I’d simply go to Kincaid on FanDuel, but you can use Ferguson and his elite red-zone usage for cheap exposure to the highest total game on the slate against a banged up Bills’ defense.
  
• Logan Thomas ($3,700 DK / $5,100 FD) – I’m not really a Logan Thomas guy, but the Rams’ are bottom-five in coverage grades versus opposing tight-ends and as I mentioned with Terry McLaurin above, this is an excellent situation for the Commanders’ pass-catchers. Sam Howell gets tunnel vision for the big-bodied tight-end in and around the red-zone.
  
• Tucker Kraft ($3,000 DK / $4,700 FD) – The cheap, pay-down chalk tight-end this week. I don’t love rostering Tucker Kraft in GPP tournaments, but I’m OKAY if you want to eat the chalk in cash.

Honorable Mention: Travis Kelce, George Kittle, Trey McBride, David Njoku, Chig Okonkwo

The Fab Five (DK Cash Games)

• Matthew Stafford
• Antonio Gibson
• Rashee Rice
• Chig Okonkwo
• New York Jets

NFL DFS GPP Core Plays:

• Kyler Murray
• Christian McCaffrey
• Brandon Aiyuk
• Michael Wilson

*Holiday Bonus: EARLY ONLY CORE

• Jordan Love
• Rachaad White
• Jayden Reed
• Rashid Shaheed

Be sure to follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and DFS slate.