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NBA

Cash with Flash Sunday NBA Picks!

Phil Naessens 4 years ago

written by Phil Naessens

Welcome to the Sunday edition of Cash with Flash Best Bets! We have NBA hoops on tap for tonight so let’s get after it!

Glad to see you and I hope that your sports betting endeavors are going well. It’s been difficult handicapping professional sporting contests during the pandemic but if you’ve been tailing me, listening to my show, or read my books then you have been making money.

Cash with Flash Best Bets has 2020-2021 season-long totals of 66-53-1 for NFL football, 48-21 in NCAAF, 45-34 for NCAAB, 16-9 in NHL, 68-39-1 in the NBA, and 109-50 for tennis this season.

Had you wagered $100 dollars on each pick we offered you’d be ahead of the game by about $11,900 since September 8, 2020. That’s not too shabby making money off of someone else prowess.

Saturday was another average day as we went 2-2 with our predictions. That leaves us with an 18-14 record through nine days of this column. Stay in this space and I not only will make you money but do it in a responsible way that won’t lead you to the poor house.

Last week we won three units and that is our goal each week. We need to win roughly 2.6 units today and I think we can do it.

You are doing it all wrong if you aren’t practicing some sort of money management system I discuss a couple of them in my books and I will be sharing little tidbits here in this column at Win Daily.

Managing your cash is numero uno. Hiring someone to pick winners is an easy thing to do but if you don’t have the discipline to manage your money correctly then wagering on sporting events for long-term success won’t likely be successful.

We have eight games on the NBA slate for Sunday and plenty of opportunity to Cash with Flash!

Minnesota Timberwolves vs New York Knicks

The Knicks are a 2.5 point home favorite when they host a struggling Timberwolves squad hoping to end a three-game losing streak. New York saw a three-game winning streak snapped on the road Wednesday night against Orlando and hasn’t played since. The Knicks defense allows the fewest points per game in the NBA this season and should be able to score enough to easily cover the spread tonight. Lay the points and take the Knicks to cover at home.

Brooklyn Nets vs Los Angeles Clippers

Brooklyn is a five-point road underdog when they face Los Angeles in the Staples Center. The Nets are riding a five-game winning streak but will be without Kevin Durant tonight. Los Angeles has won four of their last five games and will be without Paul George tonight. The Nets are 5-0 ATS over their last five games and without George, the Clippers will have a tough time dealing with Brooklyn. Take the points and go with Brooklyn and also play OVER 236 points for tonight!

Sacramento Kings vs Milwaukee Bucks

Milwaukee is a 10.5 point home favorite Sunday against a Sacramento side mired in a six-game losing streak. The Bucks just snapped a five-game losing streak of their own when they defeated OKC by thirteen points at home on Friday night so I will probably leave the side bet alone. Sacramento has allowed at least 118 points or more in each of their last five contests and we know what Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks can do on the offensive end and both sides are top fifteen in the league in pace of play. There will certainly be enough possessions to reach the 235.5 point total. Play the OVER in this one tonight!

4 years ago 0 comments

Bombcarlo’s NBA GPP Picks 2/21

Mitchell Thoennes 4 years ago

written by Mitchell Thoennes

Welcome back to a new edition of NBA GPP Picks 2/21 as we have a seven-game slate to breakdown. I would have had a rather good night last night and my best lines had Herro that killed them. We are moving on to another slate tonight where Brooklyn vs LA Clippers has opened at a massive total of 240 points. It looks like as of now the main injury news we must worry about is in Sacramento with Barnes, Holmes, and Delon Wright is doubtful for Detroit.

This article will be using DraftKings pricing, and it meant for GPP’s/Tournaments. In my article, I will cover my two-favorite selections for each position for tonight’s slate. Let us roll into this seven-game slate and reveal tonight’s top plays!

Bombcarlo’s NBA GPP Picks 2/21

Point Guard

Shai Gilgeous Alexander – ($8,100)
This matchup does not look great when you first glance it at but since Jarrett Allen has started things changed. In the past five games, Cleveland has played at the ninth-fastest pace and ranks second-worst in defensive rating. His positional matchup is great too as Cleveland has given up the most fantasy points to point guards in the past five games. SGA just played 36 minutes last game, so the minutes are back after his absence. His average usage rate in his two games back is above 25%, which is lower than his season average by 4%.

Dennis Smith Jr. – ($4,000)
Since Delon Wright is listed as doubtful it is likely Smith Jr. Will get his first start of the season. He played 23 minutes last game when Wright got hurt in the second half and scored 23.5 fantasy points. That fantasy output was with Smith Jr not making a single shot from the field. Orlando is giving up the seventh-most fantasy points to point guards in the past ten games, which should favor DSJ. In the past three games, DSJ has average a fantasy point per minute and he should see at least 30 minutes here. Tough to ignore this value at starting point guard where Wright was playing 36 minutes per game recently.

Shooting Guard

Kyrie Irving – ($8,700)
Getting pieces of this game will be important with the massive total to open of 240. This price is nice for Kyrie especially with Durant remaining out, where Kyrie sees a 3% usage and assist rate increase. In the past two games, Irving has played with Durant out his usage rate has been 37.9% and 33.5%. The Clippers have struggled to guard point guards this year allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to them. We have seen Kyrie score over 56 fantasy points in two of his last four, so the ceiling is there.

Evan Fournier – ($6,300)
Last time out Fournier led the team in usage at 27.4% and this salary is too cheap for that. Detroit has given up the fifth-most fantasy points to shooting guards this year. Fournier has seen 30 minutes in both games since his return from injury. Orlando needs someone to shoot other than Vucevic and Fournier has done that in his return hoisting up 15 or more shots in both games. He has averaged over a fantasy point per minute with Cole Anthony and Aaron Gordon out. Fournier seems like a safe option given his salary.

Small Forward

Josh Jackson – ($5,800)
When Wright and Griffin are off the floor Jackson sees a usage increase of 4.5% which brings him to the team lead at 30.3%. He is averaging 1.25 fantasy points per minute during that time. Orlando has sacrificed the third-most fantasy points to shooting guards on the season. This price is fair as well with Jackson scoring at least 24 fantasy points in ten straight games and should benefit from the absence of Wright.

OG Anunoby – ($5,600)
In his two games since returning from his extended absence, Anunoby has logged 27 minutes. He also rested Toronto’s last game against the Wolves. Anunoby should see his minutes increase to at least 30 or without a restriction. When Lowry is off the floor Anunoby sees the biggest increase in usage at 3.5%. He also records .91 fantasy points per minute so if the minutes are above 30, he should pay off this salary. The 76ers have also played at the fourth-fastest over the past ten games.

Power Forward

Giannis Antetokounmpo – ($11,000)
Giannis has been playing big minutes lately recording 36 minutes or more in six straight games now. In those six games, Giannis scored under 65 fantasy points just once. Now tonight he draws an excellent matchup against the worst defensive-rated team in the league. His usage without Holiday is at 33% and his fantasy points per minute sit at 1.7. This matchup is too good, no one on the Kings can guard him especially if Barnes sits another game. Giannis should not have an issue scoring over 60 again tonight.

Michael Porter Jr – ($5,900)
Denver has several players out including two power forwards in Green and Millsap. When taking all Nuggets that have been ruled out off the floor Porter sees an 8.1% usage increase to 29.2% (small sample size). Atlanta is a fantastic matchup as they rank fourth-worst in defensive efficiency over the last ten games. It is tough to avoid Porter as the minutes should be safe around 30 given the injuries to Denver Power Forwards.

Center

Jarrett Allen – ($7,100)
The man has been a double-double machine since starting recording a double-double in four of his last five games. Allen recorded 34 minutes last game which resulted in a 43-fantasy point night. Oklahoma City has given up the most fantasy points to centers over the past five games. They rank in the bottom five in overall rebounding this season as well. Allen has been as consistent as it comes while starting scoring at least 36 fantasy points in four of his last five.
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Brook Lopez – ($4,300)
To start, his price is extremely cheap and he faces the team that has allowed the most fantasy points to center over the past ten games. If we look at Lopez’s numbers without Holiday is averaging .91 fantasy per minute. As we know the Kings are the worst defensive team in the league this season. Lopez has scored at least 21 fantasy points and has scored 35 once in his last five games (that was against Utah). The floor is solid here and there is plenty of ceiling with this price as well.

Closing Bombcarlo’s NBA GPP Picks 2/21

Thanks for reading my content NBA GPP Picks 2/21 as we breakdown a seven-game slate. The Two extremely fast-paced games should be Brooklyn vs LA Clippers and Milwaukee vs Sacramento. Speaking of Sacramento, we have some injury news to keep an eye on over there. An effective way to keep up with the news is to join the Win Daily staff and me in the Discord Chat rooms. In there we answer questions you may have and further elaborate on our favorite plays over others. Another way to check out the top plays of the night is by checking the Projection Models. Enjoy what is left of your weekend and good luck on your lineups for tonight’s slate!

4 years ago 0 comments

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NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/21

Adam Strangis 4 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

We get a slightly larger slate tonight and hopefully one that doesn’t have a star player ruled out 15 minutes after tip. It was extremely frustrating to roster Steph Curry but it is, unfortunately, the way of the NBA anymore. With the bigger slate, we can hopefully avoid the grenades in the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/21 and find the green!

What We Look For In Cash Formats

High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x.
Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night.
Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs to be prioritized.
Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this upfront – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it, and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why.
Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/21 Injury Report

Thunder – George Hill (O)

Cavaliers – Taurean Prince (O)

Wolves – D’Angelo Russell (O)

Knicks – Mitchell Robinson (O)

Pistons – Delon Wright (Q), Blake Griffin (O)

Magic – Aaron Gordon, Cole Anthony (O)

Sixers – Ben Simmons, Shake Milton (Q)

Raptors – Kyle Lowry (Q)

Nuggets – JaMychal Green, Paul Millsap, Gary Harris, PJ Dozier (O)

Hawks – De’Andre Hunter, Rajon Rondo, Bogdan Bogdanovic (O)

Nets – Kevin Durant (O)

Kings – Richaun Holmes, Harrison Barnes (O), but back-to-back so it’s not for sure yet

Bucks – Jrue Holiday (O)

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/21 Positions

Point Guard

Trae Young ($9,700 DK/$9,200 FD) – The FD price seems like a glitch, even though Young hasn’t exactly been the greatest fantasy dynamo this season. He’s also come to life with 50+ fantasy points the past two games, sort of like his adversary on the other side. Jamal Murray has been off the charts recently and this matchup is going to be a lot of fun to watch. The high end of salary at this position comes down to these two choices in my eyes. I believe Young has a slightly higher floor since both players need to score a lot to hit the ceiling. Overall, Young’s 31.5% usage and a 1.43 FPPM take the lead for me, but I can’t hate Murray against Young’s defense either.

Darius Garland ($5,600 DK/$5,900 FD) – I have virtually no interest in GPP, but Garland could be pretty popular. The kid just plays so many minutes, that it can be hard to turn away from at this salary. The Thunder play at the ninth-highest pace in the league and that’s a really nice boost for Cleveland at 25th. With Drummond out, Garland rocks a 25.8% usage and is only about 2% behind Collin Sexton for the team lead. The FPPM is only 0.93 but he’s been on the floor 36 and 40 minutes the past couple of games.

Detroit Pistons (+2)

Wager $10 on DET

To Beat ORL:$20.87

Lose by less than 2:$19.07

To Lose:$17.62

– We need to keep an eye out here. Delon Wright may not play and is doubtful. If he does not play, Dennis Smith is going to be chalk. He’s super cheap and played 23 minutes after Wright left the last game. Smith played 14 of the 18 total minutes after Wright exited, something we have to look at for his salary. Honorable Mention – Kyrie Irving

Shooting Guard

James Harden ($10,600 DK/$10,900 FD) – DK took the Nets at their word and swapped Harden strictly to point guard, but FD has let him be. Regardless, the primary ball handler in this offense is Harden. Brian attacks the Pelicans with point guards and Ghost attacks the Clippers with primary ball handlers. They don’t come much more talented than Harden and the Nets are still without Kevin Durant for a bit longer. Harden looks almost no different than the Houston days with a 1.50 FPPM and a 28% usage rate when KD is off the floor. A Dennis Smith/Harden combo would make plenty of sense.

Paul George ($9,100 DK/$8,500 FD) – If you absolutely don’t want/can’t get to Harden, PG13 might be the route to take. I would like to know his minutes limit is gone before forking over this salary, but the matchup is pristine. We know the Nets play so fast and when a team like the Clippers is near the very bottom of the league, it’s a massive boost. George had a 1.33 FPPM n the year and a usage rate right at 29%. The minutes limit would be the only factor holding me back.

Norman Powell ($6,900 DK/$6,500 FD) – Lowry is doubtful, so we can fire up Norm once again. He’s been such a gifted scorer this year when given the chance and I believe he’s going to need to do it more tonight. Pascal Siakam has to deal with Joel Embiid down low and that doesn’t mean Siakam is a zero, but Powell will have more chances. Powell rocks a usage rate of about 24% when Lowry is off the floor, and he plays a ton of minutes. We can almost lock him in for 32-35, and since Yuta Watanabe got put into an early grave by Anthony Edwards on a dunk the other night, maybe Powell gets close to 38. I mean, probably not but I had to reference the dunk somehow.

Honorable Mention – Buddy Hield (FD), Donte DiVincenzo

Small Forward

Kawhi Leonard ($9,500 DK/$9,800 FD) – One player that we’re not worried about minutes is Kawhi, and I love him tonight. Now, that doesn’t mean he’s a lock in cash just because of potential ownership but this is a game where Kawhi can go nuts. The Nets are high-powered but they turn it over the seventh-most in the NBA, perfect for Kawhi. His path is easier with KD out and I struggle to see who they even put on him. With the fast tempo and Kawhi’s ability to post 30 points with steals upside, he’s easy to like tonight.

Cedi Osman ($5,500 DK/$5,400 FD) Cedi is part of a very thing Cavs rotation right now, and he looked like a disaster last game. He was under five DK points but picked it up in the second half, finishing with about 30 fantasy points. That’s going to play at the salary and the field has the recency bias of the flame next to his name last time out. Additionally, that was only playing 26 minutes whereas he can be closer to 30-32 if the game stays close.

Shaddiq Bey ($5,500 DK/$5,300 FD) – The rookie is getting the minutes we love at over 30 and is drilling three’s at a 41.5% clip. The Magic are 11th in three-point frequency at 40.7% and that catches my eye. Knowing that Griffin is on the way out Bey has a lot more safety than he used to. The easier play is Cedi, but if you go mid-range on FD you could use Cedi and Bey together to spend elsewhere.

Honorable Mention –Khris Middleton

Power Forward

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,000 DK/$11,300 FD) – The floor for Giannis in the last six games has been 50, which is 5x. It’s the easiest 50 fantasy points you can ask for and this matchup is the absolute nuts. The Kings match the Bucks in pace and are on a back-to-back. They have not a single soul that can stop Giannis bulldozing his way into the paint and being a terror. Sacramento is dead last in paint points allowed and 23rd in paint rebounds. As of right now, Giannis is going to be my anchor in cash games and I suspect that the field will feel the same way.

Serge Ibaka ($5,000 DK/$5,300 FD) – I’m testing the waters with bigs against the Nets again here, and Ibaka could really go off for his salary. Ibaka has 5.4 paint touches per game and Brooklyn still sits 28th in that category. That’s plenty for this spot and Ibaka has some athleticism that could give Brooklyn some issues. With Brooklyn also being in the bottom 10 in rebounds, there’s plenty of meat on the bone for Ibaka. In GPP’s, Ivaca Zubac is wildly interesting to me too, since he has more paint touches than Ibaka on a per game average.

Sacramento – Marvin Bagley was supposed to be on a minutes limit last night, but that clearly didn’t happen. Since Bagley played 35 last night, I wonder if he sits tonight. If that’s the case, Nemanja Bjelica will be chalky and he should be. When he’s gotten the minutes, he’s paid off for us so let’s monitor that.

Honorable Mention – Julius Randle (fantastic spot of his own), Nerlens Noel (FD)

Center

Jarrett Allen ($7,100 DK/$7,400 FD) – I would love play Nikola Jokic or Joel Embiid tonight. However, if my anchor is Giannis I don’t believe it does you any good for me to write them up. You likely can’t afford them so let’s talk about the mid-tier. Allen is going to continue to be a fantasy monster if he’s given the minutes, and the Cavs played him 34 last game. Allen preceded to hang 43 DK on just nine shots and double-doubled. Al Horford doesn’t represent the same challenge as Joker, clearing the path for Allen. So far with Allen on and Drummond off, Allen has a 19.7% usage rate and a 1.22 FPPM. Give me all of that over 34 minutes.

Center is hideous right now past the high-end. Clint Capela is fine, but kind of in no man’s land salary-wise. Mason Plumlee is expensive for my taste, as is Hassan Whiteside. I mean, Whiteside has played a combined 30 minutes the past two games. I guess you can play Al Horford on the other side of the Allen matchup but I’m not overjoyed there. Perhaps the day brings us some value that we can use to get off Allen if we don’t like him or can’t afford others.

Thank you for reading my NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/21 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

4 years ago 0 comments

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Cash with Flash Tennis, NBA & NCAAB Picks 2-20-2021

Phil Naessens 4 years ago

written by Phil Naessens

Welcome to the Saturday edition of Cash with Flash Best Bets! We have tennis, NBA & NCAAB hoops on tap so let’s get after it!

Cash with Flash Best Bets has 2020-2021 season-long totals of 66-53-1 for NFL football, 48-21 in NCAAF, 44-34 for NCAAB, 16-9 in NHL, 67-38-1 in the NBA, and 109-49 for tennis this season.

Had you wagered $100 dollars on each pick we offered you’d be ahead of the game by about $11,900 since September 8, 2020. That’s not too shabby making money off of someone else prowess.

Friday was meh as we finished 2-2. That leaves us with a 16-12 record through seven days of this column. Stay in this space and I not only will make you money but do it in a responsible way that won’t lead you to the poor house.

Last week we won three units and that is our goal each week. We need to win three units over the next couple of days and I’m pretty sure that we will.

Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev

There’s this little event tonight at the Australian Open. Novak Djokovic meets Daniil Medvedev and this match is essentially a “pick-em” as both are -108 at DraftKings for this important match. Craig Doyle and I are 109-49 for this event but we disagree on this match. I will be the one making the prediction for this match.

Medvedev has won twenty consecutive matches and has won a dozen consecutive matches against top-ten opponents. He’s fourth in this event in aces and has seventeen double-faults during this event. The lanky Russian has been victorious against Djokovic in three of their past four meetings including two hardcourt wins. Medvedev leads the tournament with 35 breakpoints won and he will need all of this tonight against Djokovic.

Djokovic has won everything there is to win in tennis except for the adoration of the fans. He suffered some sort of abdominal injury in his third-round victory that was supposed to be serious enough to withdraw from the event. Oddly enough, he leads the event with 100 aces and is third in break point opportunities during this event. Both would be difficult to do with a serious core injury such as what has been claimed.

Take Medvedev to win this match.

We have five games on the NBA schedule but Cash with Flash is only interested in a couple of these contests.

Miami Heat vs Los Angeles Lakers

The Heat is 4-1 ATS over their last five against the Lakers and that doesn’t bode well for a Los Angeles team missing both Anthony Davis and Dennis Schroeder for tonight’s tilt. The Lakers are going to have to have LeBron James run the entire show but he has one less scoring option and outside of Kyle Kuzma, the Lakers aren’t very consistent offensively. Miami allows an average of 112.2 points per game over their last five and enters this game on their sixth consecutive road game but enters this contest healthier than they’ve been all season. Take the 3.5 points and roll with the Heat in this one!

Washington Wizards vs Portland Trail Blazers

Two red-hot teams in this one with the Wizards riding a three-game winning streak and the Trail Blazers looking to extend a six-game winning streak. Both sides will be playing on three days rest and that bodes well for a Trail Blazers offense scoring an average of 128 points per game over their last five contests. Washington has been good too; they are allowing 116 points per game over their last five while dropping in an average of 114 points over those same five games. Portland is hot and I’m going to lay the points and roll with the Trail Blazers to cover tonight.

Cash with Flash likes the following NCAAB matchups for today.

Notre Dame vs Syracuse

Notre Dame has won six of their last eight games and is a 2.5 point underdog when they meet a Syracuse side with a 5-3 record over their last eight games. Syracuse has an above-average offense that is much better than the Irish defense and the Orange is the better free throw, shooting team. This will be a close one but lay the points and go with Syracuse to cover.

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Bombcarlo’s NBA GPP Picks 2/20

Mitchell Thoennes 4 years ago

written by Mitchell Thoennes

Bombcarlo’s NBA GPP Picks 2/20

Last night, we saw Embiid erupt for over 90 fantasy points to break the slate. For tonight’s edition of NBA GPP Picks 2/20, we have a nice five-game slate to sort through. We enter this slate with some massive totals as Portland vs Washington has opened with a total of 242 points in Vegas. Our highest-priced player on DraftKings will come from that game in Damian Lillard at $10,600. The injury news today will consist of Harrison Barnes, Richuan Holmes, and Devonte Graham who all come in with questionable tags.

For today’s article I will look to break down at least two players at each position although if a position does look week, I won’t force anything. This article will be using DraftKings pricing for all picks and will consist of only GPP/Tournament plays for this slate. This is an interesting five-game slate where you can still be different, so let’s jump into it!

Point Guard

Damian Lillard – ($10,600)
Dame just got snubbed from being an All-Star game starter and that will piss him off. If we look at his matchup it is amazing as Washington has played at the fastest pace and ranks fifth-worst in defensive rating. His usage in the last three games has been 42%, 33.5%, and 42%, which is almost impossible to avoid. Portland starters almost always play massive minutes as Lillard’s lowest minute total in the last three is 36. It will be tough to avoid Lillard for me I have his floor in this matchup at 50 which is solid for a five games slate.

De’Aaron Fox – ($8,000)
We have seen Fox’s price drop back to 8k for the first time in over a month. This price is low to me for a point guard facing the Bulls. The Bulls enter this game playing at the third-fastest pace and have sacrificed the fifth-most fantasy points to point guards this year. His high usage rate of 30.3% should allow him to pay off this reduced-price tag in a great matchup. We have seen 50 plus and 60 plus fantasy point outputs from Fox recently and I think this is another prime opportunity for one of those games.

Shooting Guard

Zach Lavine – ($9,200)
A fantastic matchup awaits Lavine tonight facing Sacramento who ranks fifth fastest in the past five games while ranking fourth-worst in defensive efficiency. For me, this is about as safe a play as it gets with Lavine playing at least 38 minutes in four of his last six games. If we want to see the last time Zach scored less than 45 fantasy points, we would be looking nine games back where he saw an awful matchup with the Knicks. A usage rate of at least 38% in three straight games stands out to me and I want to jump on Lavine at this price still.

Desmond Bane – ($3,800)
Returning from a personal matter last night Bane played 25 minutes while posting 21.75 fantasy points. If Brooks is ruled out again Bane will see at least 25 minutes for a second consecutive game. He has been consistently shooting at least eight times per game and has shot 11 times in two of his last three. Bane has recorded over 20 fantasy points in five of his last six games now. Pending on the Brooks news, Bane could be in line for another 25 minutes, which will be enough to pay off this salary even with a difficult matchup.

Small Forward

Jimmy Butler – ($8,900)
This matchup isn’t spectacular for Jimmy but that hasn’t mattered for him lately. Twelve of Butler’s last thirteen games have seen him rack up at least 44.5 fantasy points. Jimmy has recorded at least 50 fantasy points in five out of his last six games without Dragic as well. Three straight triple-doubles for Butler shows he is getting the ball more in the team’s point guard role. This matchup doesn’t scare me either as Butler went for 56 fantasy points against the Knicks not long ago.

Talen Horton-Tucker – ($3,600)
With Schroder missing last game, Lebron started at point guard and Tucker saw a minutes bump to 28 minutes which I believe was his season-high. Schroder and Davis have both already been ruled out for this game we will have tons of minutes needing to be absorbed again. With those two out, Tucker accumulates .8 fantasy points per minute which should allow him to pay this price tag. To put the cherry on top, Miami has given up the fifth-most fantasy points to Small forwards this season.

Power Forward

Marvin Bagley – ($5,400)
For Bagley to be in play for me either one of Holmes or Barnes would have to be ruled out but I think that happens. Bagley has recorded over 30 fantasy points in two straight games although his highest minute total was 24. His minutes limit should increase to 28-30 here unless we hear otherwise. If either one of those two or both miss this game Bagley sees at least a 2% usage rate regardless of the scenario. His usage in the past two games has been 27% and 30%, which is something to keep an eye on. Chicago represents a great matchup allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to power forwards and plays at the third-fastest pace.

Derrick Jones Jr – ($4,400)
I don’t like power forward tonight, but I will give out another play. Jones jr should thrive in this pace-up matchup against Washington. His usage will never be anything flashy, but the matchup is great. He is a grinder who has seen 30 minutes in three straight games now, if the minutes are there against Washington count me in.

Center

Enes Kanter – ($6,900)
If you haven’t noticed yet one of the themes here is picking on Washington. They are the fastest team in the NBA and rank fifth-worst in defensive efficiency. Looking at rebounding stats they also are the sixth-worst overall rebounding team so far this season. Kanter just went for over 40 fantasy points against Washington earlier this month and recorded his highest minute total in that game. His price has dropped below 7K, which is tied for his lowest in just under a month. A great matchup awaits Kanter and it will be tough to look at him again if he can’t pay off this salary in a juicy matchup.

Wendell Carter Jr. – ($5,100)
The Kings have given up the most fantasy points to centers over the past ten games and we see Carter at a reduced price. He is working his way back from an absence but saw 27 minutes two games ago and 25 minutes last night. His restriction should be lifted if not very light. Carter saw a 23.6% usage rate which ranked second for Chicago players that saw more than 18 minutes. Carter is around the same price as Bagley and could be a nice pivot if the ownership on Bagley gets crazy.

Closing Bombcarlo’s NBA GPP Picks 2/20

That will wrap it up for today’s five-game NBA GPP Picks 2/20 slate. We do have news to keep tabs on entering the day mostly in Sacramento. Join the WinDaily staff and me in the Discord Chat rooms where we keep you updated on all our favorite plays. This should be an awesome five games slate with high totals in several games. The large focus will be on Portland vs Washington and Sacramento vs Chicago. I mentioned the Portland game has opened at a massive total of 242. Remember to check out the other writer’s articles along with our Projection Models to help your screens light up.

If you’re interested in UFC head over to the UFC tab and check out my article for this week there. Thanks for reading and I hope you turn your screens green this weekend!

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NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/20

Adam Strangis 4 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/20

This slate is smaller than yesterday and looks like an awful lot of fun, including a Mjölnr-sized Late Night Hammer, a.k.a. marteau de fin de nuit. Ghost, if that’s the wrong phrase in French you can blame Google. Anyways, this is the kind of slate we love as it’s the perfect size to take a stand without getting overwhelmed. Let’s break it all down and lay our foundation for the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/20 to find those green screens!

What We Look For In Cash Formats

High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x.
Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night.
Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs to be prioritized.
Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this upfront – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it, and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why.
Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/20 Injury Report

Warriors – James Wiseman (O)

Hornets – Devonte’ Graham (D)

Heat – Goran Dragic (O)

Lakers – Anthony Davis, Dennis Schroeder (O)

Kings – Harrison Barnes, Richaun Holmes (Q)

Bulls – Lauri Markkanen, Otto Porter (O)

Grizzlies – Dillon Brooks (Q)

Wizards – Ish Smith (O)

Blazers – CJ McCollum, Jusuf Nurkic (O)

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/20 Positions

Point Guard

Damian Lillard ($10,600 DK/$9,900 FD) – I’m not sure if I can possibly fade Dame Time tonight, in any format. He called Russell Westbrook his “arch-nemesis” on the court, and that’s just gravy. Washington plays at the fastest pace in the league and ranks 26th in defensive rating. Now, StatMuse tells us that Dame was not spectacular on February 2nd in this very spot. He scored 32 real points but only hit 49 DK. What that doesn’t tell you is Dame sat the next game two days later with an injury. Now fully healthy, Lillard sports a 33.4% usage rate and a 1.45 FPPM. I’m virtually all in for this spot.

De’Aaron Fox ($8,000 DK/$8,100 FD) – It’s to be determined if I use Fox and Dame in my cash builds but I will absolutely have exposure to him tonight. A couple of average games have his price below what it should be and you can argue this game environment is better than Washington’s. Sacramento is dead last in defensive rating, Chicago is 20th and both teams are in the top 11 in pace. Fox isn’t bothered if Harrison Barnes plays or not, and this pace-up spot for him is so much in his wheelhouse. We know he has massive upside past his 1.18 FPPM since his usage is a team-leading 27.8%.

Note – The value options here are junk, as of this writing. That can of course change quickly but this could be a spend-up position tonight.

Honorable Mention – Westy, LaMelo Ball (FD), Kendrick Nunn (FD)

Shooting Guard

Zach LaVine ($9,200 DK/$9,500 FD) – I won’t pretend that the Bradley Beal Rule is in effect tonight. He’s under $10,00 on both sites, that’s the green light for any format and we love his game environment an awful lot. Maybe this is blasphemy, but I may just gravitate to the cheaper player against a more fantasy-friendly opponent since LaVine gets the Kings. The Bulls star has a 30.8% usage and a 1.29 FPPM. That’s slightly lower than Beal but certainly, nothing to scoff at. I’ll war between these two all day, but I have a feeling the field flocks to LaVine at around a 5-1 ratio for ownership.

Tyler Herro ($6,300 DK/$6,300 FD) – I’m not likely to go here for DK, but FD could be different. Herro is getting plenty of run with the absence of Dragic, averaging over 34 minutes on the year. Herro isn’t just a scorer either this year, with a 24.6% usage rate. The 18% assist rate isn’t too shabby either and the Lakers defense is not nearly as intimidating without AD in the lineup. I’m not overjoyed about Herro but this is a tough spot on FD. Frankly, both guard spots aren’t the most exciting after the high-end.

Gary Trent ($6,000 DK/$5,500 FD) – I don’t want to dwell on Trent. In honesty, I feel like I write him up every single slate anymore because he’s always mid-$5,000 on FD, and he works perfectly as a complement to a different player. Let’s face it, this is an elite spot for Trent too. The pace is crazy, the defense should be non-existent and the Wiz allow the seventh-highest FG% from three-point land. Trent is quietly in the top 25 in three-point attempts per contest this season.

Honorable Mention – Devin Booker would be near a lock for a spot if Chris Paul happened to sit.

Small Forward

Jimmy Butler ($8,900 DK/$9,200 FD) – Butler has a little red “2nd” in the matchup column, but I’m not concerned about that tonight. For one, LeBron James is going to have to do so much on the offensive end that I don’t think he’s playing all-world defense in this one. I mean, who else is scoring for LA past Kyle Kuzma? KCP? Wes Matthews? Yikes. Butler will have an easier time for that reason and the aforementioned no AD. Buckets has been a walking triple-double or real close to it lately as well. We can not be thrilled with the number of real points but the bonuses on DK help a lot. Regardless, the 1.34 FPPM is plenty at this salary and for the matchup.

Kelly Oubre ($6,800 DK/$6,600 FD) – I’m really torn here but I’m including Oubre because I’m guessing he’s chalky to some extent on FD. There was a part of me that thought he could be a good fit on the Warriors, but he really started about as poorly as he could have. In fairness, Oubre has started o creep up to about a full 1.00 FPPM over the past couple of weeks and has hit at least 34 FD in five of the last seven. He might be finding the groove and if there’s chalkiness on FD, we can eat it.

Derrick Jones Jr. ($4,400 DK/$4,400 FD) – It’s fairly gross writing up Jones for cash games. This is the kind of thing that can happen with a five-game slate. I have four Blazers, but I do not think you should play all four. You still need some balance. Normally, players like DJJ don’t make the cut with a 12.6% usage and a 0.74 FPPM but he’s cheap against the Wizards and will likely play 30-32 minutes. If playing him gets you a LaVine or Fox, I can certainly live with it.

Honorable Mention – LeBron, Rui Hachimura

Power Forward

Draymond Green ($6,600 DK/$7,600 FD) – I’m not over the moon with the FD price, although the three points for steals and blocks do help a lot. Green should hopefully be in the lineup on a back-to-back and play his normal 30+ minutes for GS. They still have no center, which works for us tonight. Charlotte is an interior we target all the time. True, Dray is far from a traditional center but the Hornets are bottom-five in paint points allowed. Someone like Green can exploit that and still be a primary playmaker in the Warrior’s offense like always.

Marvin Bagley ($5,400 DK/$5,400 FD) – I would be quite surprised if Bagley isn’t one of the chalkiest plays on the slate in this spot. He’s starting to turn the corner with his production, even though he still can’t get a ton of minutes. Luke Walton is why we can’t have nice things. Anyways, Bagley actually has a usage rate over 25% on the season. That helps explain why he can be fantasy relevant in just 24 minutes. He’s an athletic big man who has over five paint touches per game and Chicago is 22nd in paint points. I’m not going to be surprised to see another double-double or close to it.

Jae Crowder ($5,200 DK/$4,800 FD) – Starting or not for the Suns, Crowder is getting reliable minutes lately. Since he was banged up and missed a couple of games, he’s logged at least 26 minutes in five straight and 28 or higher in three of the five. Memphis is 13th in pace, in contrast to the Suns sitting at 29th. IF (big if) CP3 would sit, that makes the Suns go faster and this one can really shoot out. Not only has the veteran big man been a nice addition for the Suns, but he can also hit some threes at 36.4%. Memphis is giving up the fourth-highest FG% in the league.

Honorable Mention – Bam Adebayo, Brandon Clarke

Center

Jonas Valanciunas ($7,200 DK/$7,700 FD) – My Name Is Jonas is the highest salaried center on FD, and second on DK. It’s that kind of slate for center, which likely leads the field to spend up at guard. On DK, I can see a lot of Bagley at C or possibly one we haven’t discussed yet. That doesn’t mean JoVal should get overlooked. Playing against Deandre Ayton defense shouldn’t scare anyone, and JoVal is going to go toe to toe with the second-year big man. I wish he played a couple more minutes per game, but he’s also sixth in paint touches per game. Phoenix is 15th in paint points allowed and 21st in paint rebounds. Memphis needs JoVal to match Ayton as much as possible tonight.

Enes Kanter ($6,900 DK/$6,200 FD) – If the big man can’t get it done here, I’m not sure when else we could trust him to do it. Washington can’t decide on who’s playing center on any given night so Kanter has the advantage there. He also gets to feast on a team that is 25th in paint points allowed and 26th in paint rebounds. Kanter gets over seven paint touches per game to go with his 1.10 FPPM and the only fear is he can’t keep up the pace or the game goes small. That’s a possibility, so let’s see what ownership looks like closer to lock.

Cody Zeller ($6,400 DK/$5,300 FD) – We just watched Nikola Vucevic rip Golden State for over 70 DK points. Now I’m certainly not comparing these two players but it’s just to highlight the issues Golden State has right now. They are getting smacked around by any big man of slight repute, and Zeller qualifies. He’s playing about 25 minutes per game and that could be enough to double-double here with his 1.08 FPPM this year.

Honorable Mention – Wendell Carter

Thank you for reading my NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/20 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

4 years ago 0 comments

NBA

NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 02/19

Christopher Day 4 years ago

written by Christopher Day

Back to a bigger NBA slate today and more Gems to uncover in Fajita Friday’s edition! Some more star power in great spots, a loaded center position, and value already opening up at the time of writing with notable players marked as questionable or doubtful, this one will be good! Let’s ride.

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 FD price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

Point Guards

Steph Curry ($10,000 FD / $10,100 DK)

My preseason favorite for NBA MVP has been balling out after missing last season and reminding people just how dominant both he and the Warriors can be when Klay Thompson returns next season. On a ridiculous run over his past 11 games, at what point do we call this streak that Curry is on just his norm? He’s rocking a 33% usage rate while averaging 33.6/5.1/5.9 on 55.2% shooting and 47.5% from behind the arc. Orlando just doesn’t have the defensive capability to stop him, and if Vuc keeps this one close for the Magic, Steph can go nuclear.

Trae Young ($9,200 FD / $9,500 DK)

Back-to-back opportunities for the Hawks to face the Celtics, and Trae’s price has not moved. Despite coming off a 40/3/8 performance just a few days ago in the same spot, Young is still not garnering any ownership at the position whatsoever, and I think that is a big mistake. With the Hawks one game back of a playoff spot in the East, they need their best players to rise to the occasion, and it starts and ends with Trae Young tonight.

Also Consider:

Chris Paul ($7,800 FD / $7,700 DK)
Kemba Walker ($6,200 FD / $6,500 DK)

Shooting Guards

Donovan Mitchell ($8,300 FD / $8,300 DK)

I wrote up Donovan Mitchell in this spot the last time Utah faced LA and I have no issues going back to the well. Coming in severely underowned in their last game versus the Clippers, I’m not sure the field realizes how bad the Clippers are at defending primary ball handlers. Since Conley has departed the lineup dealing with injuries, Mitchell has stepped up in a big way, averaging 27.6/5/6.7 on 42.1% shooting, including 24 or more points in his past seven, and nearly 22 FGA per game on a 33.7% usage rate. As long as Conley remains out of the Utah lineup, fire up Mitchell with confidence on tonight’s NBA slate, as he looks to build on his past game versus one of the best of the West, where he dropped 24/8/7 on 41% shooting.

Norman Powell ($5,800 FD / $6,200 DK)

Stormin’ Norm should be in line for a significant workload with Kyle Lowry doubtful to play in this one. In 16 starts this season, Powell is averaging 21 PPG and taking on a big scoring role for a small-ball Raptors lineup, including torching other teams in the first quarter. With the T-Wolves playing little-to-no defense, Powell, Siakam, and VanVleet will be able to carry the load to a Raptors victory here tonight, and the man who “only” played 30 minutes yesterday should be the freshest of them all.

Also Consider:

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($8,300 FD / $8,200 DK)
Fred VanVleet ($8,000 FD / $7,800 DK)

Small Forwards

Pascal Siakam ($8,700 FD / $7,700 DK)

Although Siakam thrived in this spot earlier in the week, he’ll be in for an even bigger performance with having to cover Lowry’s 24/4/4 scoring line in that one – Siakam took 19 shots in this week’s tilt versus Minnesota, and rightfully so with how well he is playing and how bad their interior defense is, but now he’ll eclipse the 20+ FGA mark and have ample room to collect rebounds and second chance opportunities against the 25th-ranked rebounding team in the NBA. The minutes were heavy last night, and he may be gassed, but this is Nick Nurse and the Raptors – you know Siakam will be good to go for another 40 minutes here tonight.

Brandon Ingram ($8,200 FD / $8,000 DK)

A way out of left field NBA GPP play that I would only consider on FD because of position scarcity, Brandon Ingram finds himself in a good game environment and can thrive here tonight. While I’m likely going to pair Siakam with one of the players listed below, there’s no denying Ingram’s ability to take over a game and score in bunches. Although Zion is my preferred Pelican on this NBA slate, Ingram’s volume will increase versus a competitive Suns roster, and if he can find his shot early and often, he could be in for a big night.

Also Consider:

Michael Porter Jr. ($5,500 FD / $6,100 DK)
Cedi Osman ($4,200 FD / $4,800 DK)

Power Forwards

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,300 FD / $10,800 DK)

He was not a happy camper yesterday in a loss to the shorthanded Raptors, and I fully expect Giannis to take it out on OKC tonight. The back-to-back NBA MVP has been thriving since getting more minutes, to no one’s surprise, and will be counted on yet again here to carry a Bucks team that thought they had strengthened their rotation in the offseason. Sporting a 32.8% usage rate on the season, Giannis is back to doing what we all expected of him, now averaging 28/11.4/5.9 on the season. People will shy away because of a Milwaukee blowout, but when I wrote him up against OKC last time and said they might even steal a win, let alone cover the massive spread, go see how that turned out and rethink a Giannis fade tonight.

Jayson Tatum ($9,400 FD / $8,800 DK)

Would love this play even more if Jaylen Brown sits out with a knee injury, but even if he does play, Tatum is in a great spot versus Atlanta tonight. Whether he is running secondary point guard duties, as I have written up for the past few games, or is attacking John Collins in the paint with Kemba Walker on the floor, Tatum will have ample opportunity to flourish in an underrated game environment; the assist rate has increased, he’s rebounding well, and he proved he can score on this Atlanta defensive scheme last game out. Elite player in an elite spot that will likely get overlooked because of how large the NBA slate is.

Others to Consider:

Zion Williamson ($8,700 FD / $8,400 DK)
Chris Boucher ($7,200 FD / $6,300 DK)

Centers

The position is absolutely loaded tonight – the two preferred targets are listed, but don’t hesitate to slide in any of the honorable mentions.

Preferred Targets:

Nikola Jokic ($10,600 FD / $11,000 DK)
Joel Embiid ($10,300 FD / $10,700 DK)

Also Consider:

Nikola Vucevic ($9,700 FD / $9,900 DK)
Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,300 FD / $9,200 DK)
Clint Capela ($8,000 FD / $7,200 DK)
Jonas Valanciunas ($7,700 FD / $7,100 DK)

Value Gems: Check the projection model.

I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost

4 years ago 0 comments

Sports Betting Premium

Cash with Flash Friday NBA & NCAAB Picks!

Phil Naessens 4 years ago

written by Phil Naessens

Welcome to the Friday edition of Cash with Flash Best Bets! We have NBA & NCAAB predictions for you to consider for tonight!

Glad to see you and Cash with Flash hope that your sports betting endeavors are going well. It’s been difficult handicapping professional sporting contests during the pandemic but if you’ve been tailing Cash with Flash, listening to the Phil Naessens Show, or reading my books then you have been making money.

Cash with Flash Best Bets has 2020-2021 season-long totals of 66-53-1 for NFL football, 48-21 in NCAAF, 43-33 for NCAAB, 16-9 in NHL, 66-37-1 in the NBA, and 103-49 for tennis this season.

Had you wagered $100 dollars on each pick we offered you’d be ahead of the game by about $11,300 since September 8, 2020. That’s not too shabby making money off of someone else prowess.

Wednesday wasn’t a great day as we finished 1-2. That leaves us with a 14-10 record through seven days of this column. Stay in this space and I not only will make you money but do it in a responsible way that won’t lead you to the poor house.

We have nine games on the NBA schedule but Cash with Flash is only interested in a couple of these contests.

Golden State Warriors vs Orlando Magic

Golden State is a 5.5 point away favorite tonight and enters this one riding a two-game winning streak and has won four of its last five games. One week ago the Warriors defeated Orlando by four points in Oakland but failed to cover a +9 point spread. Orlando has been crushed by injuries this season and has won two of its last five games but did defeat the New York Knicks Wednesday night. Lay the points and go with the Warriors to cover the spread tonight.

Detroit Pistons vs Memphis Grizzlies

The Pistons are five-point away underdogs when they meet the Memphis Grizzlies tonight. Detroit is 2-12 ATS as the away team this season and they enter this matchup coming off of an away loss to the Chicago Bulls and have won three of its last five contests. Memphis has won three of its past five including a 122-113 home win over the Oklahoma City Thunder. It’s hard to trust any team with a 2-12 ATS record and we won’t tonight. Lay the points and go with the Grizzlies to cover tonight.

NCAAB Picks for tonight
We have a Metro Atlantic Athletic Contest to consider for tonight when the Monmouth Hawks meet the Iona Gaels. Monmouth has the best record in the conference and is a two-point away favorites tonight. Monmouth is a two-point favorite and has won four of its last five games and two straight over Manhattan. Iona has had coronavirus trouble and has played just seven conference games this season and they enter this contest hoping to end a two-game losing streak. We also have a 150 point total that is fully in play. Lay the points and take Monmouth to cover and also play OVER 150 tonight.

4 years ago 0 comments

NBA

2.19 NBA DFS Preview Podcast

Michael Rasile 4 years ago

written by Michael Rasile

2.19 NBA DFS Preview Podcast

Welcome to our 2.19 NBA DFS Preview Podcast, where we have some fun while giving you some quick info on each of the games for the night. Stoweby and Mitchell go over the 9 game slate that has some fun spots to get different.

News will come down, so make sure you’re in our Expert Chat to hear about everything. Also, Trust The Model, that thing has a mind of it’s own…

If you haven’t already, make sure to take advantage of our Sports Betting offer! The Legend Mike North has joined the Win Daily Sports Family and has been picking winners ever since. Get on the train with us to cash city by signing up and using promo code MIKE for our Sports Betting Membership! This gives you 2 months of our Sports Betting Membership at only $50! A buy one get one free extravaganza!

Make sure to follow Stoweby @stoweby on Twitter and follow Mitchell @mitchellthoenn1, and of course, Win Daily Sports at @WinDailySports.

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4 years ago 0 comments

NBA

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/19

Adam Strangis 4 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/19

This is a bit of an atypical slate tonight. We have nine games, but only four players in the five digits as far as salary. That means we could be sitting in the mid-range a bit more than normal, but there are some great plays on the slate as a whole. Let’s lay the foundation to our cash game before the inevitable havoc in the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/19 to find the green!

What We Look For In Cash Formats

High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x.
Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night.
Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs to be prioritized.
Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this upfront – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it, and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why.
Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/19 Injury Report

Warriors – Draymond Green (Q), James Wiseman (O)

Magic – Aaron Gordon, Cole Anthony (O), James Ennis, Evan Fournier (Q)

Nuggets – Will Barton, JaMychal Green (Q), Paul Millsap, Gary Harris, PJ Dozier (O)

Cavaliers – May have just 8-9 players

Hawks – De’Andre Hunter (O)

Celtics – Marcus Smart (O), Jaylen Brown (Q)

Bulls – Lauri Markkanen, Otto Porter (O)

Sixers – Ben Simmons, Shake Milton (Q)

Pistons – Blake Griffin (O)

Grizzlies – Dillons Brooks, De’Anthony Melton (Q)

Thunder – George Hill (O)

Bucks – Jrue Holiday (O) – Keep an eye on Giannis on a back-to-back. They are on a six-game losing streak so he probably plays but it’s in the back of my mind. Khris Middleton would be an absolute must in cash if Giannis would be out.

Pelicans – Steven Adams (D)

Raptors – Kyle Lowry (Q), I’d bet he’s out

Wolves – D’Angelo Russell (O)

Jazz – Mike Conley (Q)

Clippers – Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, Nic Batum, Luke Kennard (Q)

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/19 Positions

Point Guard

Chris Paul ($7,700 DK/$7,800 FD) – My guy Brian has been on this train for a while now and it’s attacking New Orleans with point guards. The Point God is just the next man in line, and it’s easy to see why we would like him. The Pelicans are a big pace-up spot for CP3 and the Suns, not to mention he can pick on Lonzo Ball defense. Paul does trail Devin Booker in usage but he still rocks a 23.6% rate and a 1.17 FPPM, best on the team. The price tag is appealing on both sites and he’s a good pivot from the next player if Denver gets players back in action tonight.

Jamal Murray ($8,000 DK/$7500 FD) – Denver is a team in flux, so Murray could be too pricey. However, if they are still down multiple starters, I’m in. Cleveland will struggle to defend him with Collin Sexton, and Murray looked a whole lot like Bubble Murray last game out. Taking the three starters off the court leaves Murray a 28% usage rate and a 1.19 FPPM, which is excellent. In the past two games he’s hit 45 DK (with nine turnovers) and 61 DK. For the time being, Michael Porter is a very questionable player so it’s up to Murray and Nikola Jokic to carry this team.

Theo Maledon ($4,700 DK/$5,500 FD) – We’ll probably get a different value that we like better, but this is a numbers play. Maledon worked back up to 33 minutes last time out and with Hill still out, the Thunder need him to run the point. He’s not going to wow us with a 16.5% usage and a 0.75 FPPM, but the salary is what gets him on the radar. Getting Milwaukee on a back-to-back and playing at a top-eight pace doesn’t hurt him either. Darius Garland could come in as Uber-chalk, so let’s keep an eye on that in this price range.

Honorable Mention – Steph Curry, Trae Young

Shooting Guard

Fred VanVleet ($7,800 DK/$8,000 FD) – I’m preparing for Kyle Lowry to be out tonight, and if he is FVV is going to be a very appealing target. He played 40 minutes last night and is the Energizer Bunny, logging major minutes every night. Not only does Minnesota play at the fifth-fastest pace in the league, but they also allow the 10th highest field goal percentage from deep. That’s right up VanVleet’s alley with the fifth-most attempts per game this year. On top of that, FVV has the highest usage on the team at 27.5% when Lowry is off the floor. On FD, you could go double Raptor SG with Norman Powell as well and I wouldn’t be mad. There’s a solid chance I’m pairing one of these guys with a certain spicy Toronto forward if Lowry were to miss.

Collin Sexton ($7,300 DK/$6,900 FD) – I’m probably going to get my Cleveland exposure elsewhere on DK, but FD might be different. Sexton is in a great spot since Gary Harris is already out. The rest of the guards aren’t defenders to worry about and Sexton is going to be called upon to fully carry this offense. He and Garland are almost identical in usage at about 27% and FPPM at 0.97. Right now, I’d favor Garland and another super cheap player from Cleveland but let’s see what ownership brings us.

The rest of the SG position is very cloudy right now. Both Jordan Clarkson and Joe Ingles are prime targets if Mike Conley is out, but he’s questionable. For the Grizzlies, Dillon Brooks is questionable and that could open up plenty of usage to Grayson Allen. Lastly, Seth Curry was wildly popular last slate with Ben Simmons out. If he is again, Curry will almost surely be chalk but again – we don’t know yet. We’ll keep everything updated in Discord throughout the day.

Small Forward

Pascal Siakam ($7,700 DK/$8,700 FD) – He’s only a PF on DK, but regardless of the position I’m looking at Spicy P tonight. He’s coming off two straight games of putting it on the Bucks, who have a much better interior defense than the Wolves. With no Lowry, Siakam is also up to a 1.11 FPPM. Minnesota is 25th in rebounding and 14th in paint points allowed. With an up-tempo game on tap, I expect Siakam to have a field day and will have some Raptors exposure here. They aren’t the same player and he had overtime, but Domantas Sabonis just hung an 80 spot on this team. 50 for Siakam is not out of the question at all.

Shaddiq Bey ($5,600 DK/$5,800 FD) – Bey’s game log from last time won’t catch your eye at just 27 DK. However, he took just seven shots total and hit just one three-pointer. When a rookie player is grinding out that style of outcome in about 32 minutes, I’m still interested. Memphis is just outside the top 12 in pace and still plays a good deal faster than Detroit at 28th. They also allow a 39% mark from deep, fourth-worst in the league. That’s what we want to see when Bey is 41.3% from beyond the arc at this price.

Cedi Osman ($4,800 DK/$4,200 FD) – With Cleveland being in very tough shape tonight, I’m heading right back to Cedi in this spot. He logged 35 minutes last game and actually would up hitting a double-double. I don’t expect that part again, but the minutes will be locked in. Denver is playing fast and their defense is suffering right now since they’re thin as well. With the players missing for the Cavs, Cedi sits with a 20.9% usage and a 0.89 despite a 47.7% true shooting rate. That’s all we need.

Honorable Mention – Malik Beasley, OG Anunoby (mostly FD), Micheal Porter Jr (FD)

Power Forward

Zion Williamson ($8,400 DK/$8,700 FD) – You know that GIF we put in Discord with the dog in the rocket ship that says “to the moon”? Welcome to the Zion show. He started this season very slow, to the point where I barely looked at him on a nightly basis. Over the past two weeks, Zion has started to rev it up with a 28.9% usage and a 1.38 FPPM, both to lead the team. He’s finding the groove and punishing teams in the paint with the ninth-most points. Phoenix is average in that metric, but I also don’t think Deandre Ayton has much for Zion down low. When a player as talented as Zion is cooking like this, I’m all the way in. I will say if Jaylen Brown is out, Jayson Tatum is going to rival Zion for this spot. I think we’ll have to make the pivot to Tatum based on projected ownership but man do I like Zion tonight.

JaMychal Green ($5,300 DK/$4,200 FD) – The price is exceptionally low on FD and we may have no choice but to look here. We know that Paul Millsap is out, so Green should start. He should also push for 30 minutes and at this salary, that’s enough. Now we take those three starters off the floor and Green has a 0.68 FPPM but that’s over 75 minutes. Cleveland is 22nd in rebounding and I have a tough time passing up $4,200 on a site that I have to take two players at this position. It’s really, really gross at this spot past the very obvious plays. I may even look towards Jae Crowder, but PF seems like a strong chance for Tatum or Zion and a punt Green.

Honorable Mention – Tatum, Tobias Harris (especially if Simmons is out), Draymond Green (probably DK only)

Center

Nikola Jokic ($11,000 DK/$10,600 FD) – If people don’t want to go back to Joker, that’s on them. Sure, he was a slight disappointment last game against the Wizards. The floor was still 60 DK and the ceiling is higher. Joker poured in 33 real points and in the past two games with Denver short, he’s taken 44 combined shots and played 37 and 38 minutes. When I get a player who’s averaging a 1.77 FPPM down three starters and playing three quarters, I’m not thinking twice. You shouldn’t either and with the general lack of true studs, Joker could wind up being the man we anchor cash lineups around.

Karl Anthony-Towns ($9,200 DK/$9,300 FD) – Don’t want to spend up on Jokic? I can understand so can I offer you a very underpriced KAT? Ghost and I had said the past couple of slates we wanted KAT at this price before he went nuts, and it happened. My issue was I was all in on Joker, so I missed the 50+ DK KAT game. That won’t be the case tonight. He was back to playing his 35+ minutes and he should not be this cheap on either site. Towns is rocking a 1.28 FPPM with Russell off, and that’s going to be the case for a while. Toronto doesn’t have the right mix to defend KAT and I will have exposure tonight.

Willy Hernangomez ($3,900 DK/$4,400 FD) – There’s plenty of good center plays tonight but for me, it’s either high or low (or both on DK). Steven Adams is doubtful, so Hernangomez is going to get some run tonight. We should bank on around 25-ish minutes and he averages a 1.07 FPPM on the year without Adams on the floor. Jaxson Hayes should get some minutes, but we should expect Hernangomez to get the bulk. He’s played at least 17 in five of the past six. Additionally, all of the 29 minutes last game came after Steven Adams left in the first quarter.

Honorable Mention – Joel Embiid, Clint Capela, JoVal

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