NBA

Ah the joys of end of season NBA. The swings are dramatic, and the value is constantly changing. In two of the last three slates, we have seen winning score more than 430 points than last night 365 point won you 100 thousand dollars. It is without a doubt a roller coaster and not for the faint of heart. But fear not, we have everything you need to help you find success no matter the scenario including our NBA Projection Model and Cheat Sheet. Additionally, you cannot set and forget your lineups so be sure that up to and through first tip you are in our discord so that you can follow the news live as it breaks so you always know the best value pivots to give you the edge to take down your contests. Let us not waste any more time and get into Stoweby’s NBA Breakdown For 5.7. 

***Note***You will likely NEED multiple Lakers and Rockets tonight.

Stoweby’s NBA Breakdown For 5.7

Point Guard: Can I write up Westbrook?

Damian Lillard, TrailBlazers, $9,700:

Damian Lillard, TrailBlazers, $9,700: 

Fewer things are more guaranteed than Lillard turning into a monster at the end of a season. Portland always seems to just barely sneak into the playoffs, and it is always on the back of Dame shooting close to 30 shots a night. Slightly different scenario with 10 teams getting in but the Blazers are in the 7th seed but with a little luck can get into the 5th seed, so I am expecting Dame to go into playoff mode soon. Additionally, from a leverage standpoint I am expecting less experienced players to stay away from the Lakers defense without not considering that LeBron, AD, and Dennis are all out of the picture. 

Armoni Brooks, Heat, $3,900:

Will the Rockets even have enough guys active to play tonight? With eight guys already listed out and five others questionable or doubtful they could potentially have only five or six players to suit up. Because of that I do not care about the blowout risk or who they are playing. Be ready to play multiple Rockets tonight based on news. 

Also Consider:

Lamelo Ball

Colin Sexton

Shooting Guard:

Evan Fournier, $5,400, Celtics:

Eww, that is all I am gonna say. I do not like putting Evan in any of my articles, but it makes sense. In 4 of 5 games, he has exceeded more that 30 minutes and has taken double digit shots in three of five. While that is not great, he has been surprisingly been giving you some ancillary stats with 4-5 rebounds and assists, as well as a couple of steals. He maxes out at about 35 DK points in terms of ceiling, but he has been fairly consistent lately. 

R.J. Hampton, Magic, $5,100:

His price is climbing but I really do not care. He is playing over 30 minutes a game, taken 14 shots in two of his last three and given you peripheral stats in every category and given you at least a 20% usage rate in the last four. Magic have nine guys listed out currently and I would not be surprised if that list grew. 

Also Consider:

Seth Curry

Anthony Edwards

Delon Wright (If Fox and Barnes sit)

Small Forward:

Demar Derozan, Spurs, $8,600:

I rarely if ever put Demar in my articles but tonight I am not really “in love” with many of the spots our 10K studs are sans Vucevic so I am creeping down into the mid-range a bit. Going back to games where Demar plays against weak perimeter defenses (Wizards, Celtics, Hawks, Kings, Pelicans, Rockets, Trailblazers) he has a usage rate of around 34%, takes around 23 shots per game, and regularly finds himself over 50 DK points by the end of the night. 

Anthony Lamb, Rockets, $3,400:

Don’t feel like repeating myself. Rockets are a triage unit. He might play 40 minutes.

Also consider:

Luka Doncic

Power Forward:

Kyle Kuzma, Lakers, $5,600 :

With all of the primary guys sitting it is Drummond and Kuzma running the show from a usage perspective and as I will list below while I love Drummond’s price, he does present some risk. Kuzma in these scenarios has a massive 7.1% increase in usage (28.3% total) and Portland has the 31st ranked defense in the NBA behind only the Kings. 

KJ Martin Jr, Rockets, $4,700:

I already told you how many rockets are out so I will just emphasis this again. I do not care if they get blown out by 40 (and they might) I am playing multiple Rockets. I am just waiting to hear which guy with the Q tag sit so I know which value I end up running out there. 

Also Consider:

Giannis Antetokounmpo: I am concerned with blowout for the Milwaukee plays. Waiting to see if anyone sits.

Center:

Andre Drummond, Lakers, $6,900:

No Lebron, no AD, and no Schroder and he gets Portland in the late-night hammer. My main concern with Drummond is not the matchup, it is his play style. While he sees an 8.6% usage increase with those three out in seven of his last ten games he has ended up in foul trouble and ended up playing low to mid 20’s minutes. He is high on my radar, but I may go with cheaper Lakers if I feel the foul troubles will continue. 

Nikola Vucevic, Bulls, $10,400:

Who do the Celtics have that can stop Nikola under the glass? Do not look the answer is nobody even when healthy. Now we have Robert Williams questionable and Tristan Thompson coming off a chest injury and ask yourself: How high is his ceiling tonight? With the value tonight we have plenty of salary available for multiple 10K guys tonight if you are going stars and scrubs and Vuc is at the top of my list. 

Also Consider:

Jusuf Nurkic

Montrezl Harrell: If you think Drummond continues his foul trouble Harrell should be your guy. (5.1% usage bump)

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Sports Draftkings Stoweby’s NBA Breakdown For 5.7. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord Chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

Bonus NBA anyone? Looks like I get the opportunity to run it back on a 10 game Saturday slate. Believe it or not, NBA DFS gets even crazier towards the end of the regular season. Rest assured we’ll find you the best options to keep you above the cash line. We have a number of 10K and above players so we’ll need to get creative on the low end so don’t forget to check out our NBA Projection Model and Cheat Sheet all the way till lock for the latest and most accurate information when it comes to value plays!

***Note***We typically don’t put value plays in the articles as things always change at the last minute so you’ll need to be on discord when news break so you can pivot.

Teams with potential injury news (multiple Q tags):

Detroit, Golden State, Atlanta, Orlando, Indiana, Dallas,

Stoweby’s NBA Breakdown For 5.1

Point Guard:

Luka Doncic, Mavericks, $10,900:

If this matchup doesn’t get you excited nothing will. We get one of the most NBA’s most prolific all around offensive weapon against a Wizards team who leads the NBA in pace and is mediocre at best defensively.

Steph Curry, Warriors, $10,600:

I know I’m being captain obvious here with my first two recommendations but can you blame me? No need for me to go deep into analytics with these first two. You know what they bring to the table and the matchups are two of the best on the evening.

Frank Campazzo, Nuggets, $4,800:

Ghost says it day in and day out. You play primary ball handlers against the Clippers, PERIOD. with Jamal Murray out for the season it’s Frank the tanks team to lead from point guard and DraftKings hasn’t adjusted his price enough to reflect his new role. In the last nine games, he has played no less than 26 minutes and he has plenty of weapons to facilitate with Jokic, Gordon, and Porter Jr on the court. I’m going on faith a little here with such a small sample but attacking the Clippers in this way rarely fails.

Also Consider:

Kevin Porter Jr: $7,400

Shooting Guard:

Jordan Clarkson, Jazz, $7,500:

No Donovan Mitchell or Mike Conley so the point guard duties fall firmly on the shoulders of Clarkson tonight. With a 227 total and Clarkson 30.5% usage sans those two on the court, he’s going to get every opportunity to put points on the board. I may opt to go with a cheaper option to save a little salary but Jordan is looking at potentially 40 minutes on the court so it’s hard to not look at him. If I decide to run a couple of balanced lineups tonight he’s 100% going to be in there for me.

Deangelo Russell, Timberwolves, $6,900:

Perimeter shooting against the Pelicans, that is all.

Also Consider:

Josh Jackson: $6,000

Svi Mykhailiuk: $3,400

Small Forward:

Anthony Edwards, Timberwolves, $7,400 :

I remember distinctly talking to our guy Michael Rasille on a Wednesday night podcast about two months ago when Minnesota was facing off against the Pelicans and we couldn’t figure out who in the hell was gonna take the perimeter shots where they are exploitable. My how times have changed. It’s almost a given he takes 20 shots tonight and most of them will be from the outside. If his shots are falling his bump in rebounds lately (nine boards in the three of his last four) gives him a ceiling north of 50 DK points tonight.

Oshae Brissett, Indiana Pacers, $5,700:

His price keeps climbing but it’s still not where it should be for the results. In his last five games he’s played no less than 31 minutes and has done no worse than 5x his salary. This play becomes largely worthless if the Pacers choose to bring back Domantas Sabonis tonight so be aware of the starting rotation before you lock him in. If it all works out I like the sneaky upside this game gives you on a large slate.

Also consider:

Kent Bazemore, Warriors, $4,600

Power Forward:

Darius Bazley, Thunder, $6,700:

Steady eddie lately. Bazely has been quietly giving you between 6x-7x return in six of the last eight contests and Detroit doesn’t scare me in the least. No matter what the scenario or score his minutes stay above 30 minutes and he’s taking around 15 shots a game with between 25 and 30% usage. He’s been a mainstay in my lineups when hunting for mid-range options.

Bojan Bogdanovic, Jazz, $6,600:

It may surprise some of you but it isn’t Jordan Clarkson who sees the biggest uptick in usage and fantasy points when Conley and Mitchell are off the court. It’s Bojan. His usage spikes by 5.2% to 27.2% and he comes in $600 cheaper than Joe Ingles and $900 less than Jordan which will be needed tonight if you’re trying to get multiple 10K studs like me tonight.

Also Consider:

Dorian Finney Smith (If Maxi or Kristaps sit): $5,000

Miles Bridges: $7,300

Center:

Christian Wood, Rockets, $8,700:

His pricing has been off all season. Night after night he gives you 50+ DK point upside and I don’t recall his price ever getting to 9K at any point. Since Harden and Boogie the Rockets have also climbed to one of the highest paced teams in the NBA sitting around 5th and we all know how fast the Warriors like to play. Throw in the 25% usage rate and the lack of interior size for Golden State the ole ding-ding kicker himself Draymond Green dealing with an injury he should be able to have a field day today.

Nikola Jokic, Nuggets, $10,900:

I’m throwing Jokic in here for obvious reasons. With no Murray or Barton, Nikola gets to soak up even more than his typical 29% usage rate and I’ll be completely honest, I’ve never been a Boogie Cousins fan and now that he’s older and slower I don’t think can do anything to stop Joker from running circles around him.

Also Consider:

I’m waiting for injury news here. I’m not really enamoured with most of the options at this point.

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Sports Draftkings Stoweby’s NBA Breakdown For 5.1. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord Chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

Ladies and gentlemen, I am thrilled to say I’m back in the saddle for NBA action going forward every Friday and I’m ready to help you all put some cash in your wallet down the home stretch of the NBA season. We have a ton of big-name guys already out. One clear game that you will see a lot of attention paid to is Portland against Brooklyn with a 241.5 total and a 1 point spread. No other contest in close. Don’t forget to check out our NBA Projection Model and Cheat Sheet all the way till lock for the latest and most accurate information when it comes to value plays! Enough yammering, you came for plays. Let’s get into Stoweby’s NBA Breakdown for 4.30.

***Note*** Make sure you use the projection model to get value close to tip. We don’t put value plays in the articles as things always change at the last minute so you need to be on discord when news break so you can pivot.

Stoweby’s NBA Breakdown For 4.30

Point Guard:

Damian Lillard, Trail Blazers, $9,200:

All signs point to Lillard having a monster performance. We have the slowest spread and the highest total game and not a shred of defense to be found between either team. Lillard has had some down games as of late but we have to keep a short memory in DFS. The important thing is that his shot volume is still there. Aside from his last two games he’s tossing up 20+ shots a game. If they start falling instead of 35 DK points you’re looking at 65 DK points. Just be patient.

Kyrie Irving, Nets, $9,400:

No need to repeat the same thing about the game. I honestly don’t know if they will play KD after playing 36 minutes last night. Weather or not he suits up I’m still looking at Kyrie Irving in my main lineup. With Harden still sidelines Irving is taking around 20 shots per game and I’m pleasantly surprised to see him channeling his inner Russell Westbrook and collecting at least 8 rebounds in five of six games.

Also Consider:

Russell Wesbrook: $11,000

Ja Morant: $8,500

Ben Simmons: $7,500 (If not on minutes restriction)

Shooting Guard:

C.J.McCollum:

ALL THE NETS AND BLAZERS!!!!. I wouldn’t recommend it in cash but in my GPP’s I’m likely going to have four guys from this game in my lineup, maybe six if the value allows it. CJ is in a similar DFS funk like his teammate Dame but there is not a better get right spot than tonight. Shot volume is still there and his FG percentage is still decent he’s just lacking from the assists and rebounds side of things. If dames shots start falling it’s almost a given we’ll see CJ’s assists climb as a benefit.

Jrue Holiday, Bucks, $7,800:

I don’t have any expectations that Giannis will see the court after leaving last night with an ankle injury. Whenever the Greek Freak is off the court Jrue sees a 5% usage increase and more than nine DK points per 48 minutes. It looks like Vegas sees the same thing as the Bucks when from 5 point favorites at open to just one point favorites now

Also Consider:

right now I’m waiting on value news to come out.

Small Forward:

Khris Middleton, Bucks, $7,900:

Everything I said about Jrue applies here and in this instance, Middleton’s usage sees an even larger 6.7% usage increase while scoring 8.57 more fantasy points per 48 minutes without Giannis. Both guys make for great mid range options.

Bradley Beal, Wizards, $9,800:

Bradley Beal is STILL the NBA’s leading scorer averaging 31.3 points per game and they continue to price him under 10K. The reason I prefer Beal over Westy tonight is pretty simple. Rus turns the ball over way too much and Cleveland is one of the best in the league when it comes to steals. Currently, they are 8th with over 8 steals a game. Given Westbrooks bad habit they’ll get more than that and I see Beal taking the lead role at least for tonight and being the primary option all around.

Also consider:

Kyle Kuzma: $6,100

Power Forward:

Kevin Durant $8,900

Everything I’ve been mentioning in the entire article applies here. My only hint of concern here is that he just played 36 minutes last night so they may choose to sit Durant as he’s still coming back from a lengthy injury. He’s not someone I should need to explain. If he plays he’s KD and he’s under 9 K in a 241 total game. You play him.

Danillo Gallinari, Hawks, $5,300 :

A lot of things need to break right but to this point the following Hawks are out: Huerter, Hunter, Reddish, Snell. The following Hawks are also are questionable or doubtful: Trae Young, Clint Capela, Bogdan Bogdanovic. When forced into a position to take on a lead role he has shown that he can do it in short bursts. Earlier this year against Boston when put in a similar position he scored 38 real world points and broke the slate at almost no ownership. We need to see a at minimum Capella to be out to take a shot at him but we’ll see.

Also Consider:

Jeff Green: $4,800

Tobias Harris: $7,100

Center:

Andre Drummond, Lakers, $7,500

With no Lebron and potentially no AD the offense runs through Drummond against the weakest defensive team in the NBA in the Kings. No tell me that you are giving me this at $7500? Yes please. Drummond can legitimately give you 20 and 20 tonight without breaking a sweat.

Jusuf Nurkic, Blazers, $7,100:

High paced, no defense, a 241 total, and Nurkic is a point per minute monster at 1.25 ppm. There is nobody on Brooklyn who can slow him down, much less stop him. My only concern is time. Will he play 20 minutes or 30? If it looks like 30 I’m all in tonight.

Also Consider:

Joel Embiid: $10,200

Jonas Valanciunas: $7,700

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Sports Draftkings Stoweby’s NBA Breakdown For 4.30. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord Chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!