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We’re back at it with another five game slate tonight and the difference between the sites is going to be evident as we go. We’ll talk about it but not before we give Ghost another shout for the model. These projections are fire every night and it nailed the best values last night again (blowout really capped some of them from going 8x or higher). Let’s get into the teeth of this slate and figure out what directions we need to start heading in for NBA Cash Game Breakdown 12/31!
*Note* There’s only four games on FD tonight, not the five that are on DK. Be aware that the DK slate starts at 6:30 PM, not 7:00 like FD.
As it stands, I don’t think we need anyone from the Philly/Orlando game as a cash play. The normal suspects are all in play in Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris for the Sixers. For Orlando, Nikola Vucevic and Markelle Fultz are the only two in consideration. People play Terrence Ross, but I’m never a fan of playing a shooter with no floor in cash. Any change will be updated.
De’Aaron Fox ($7,800 DK/$7,900 FD) – This is Ghost approved and hopefully a starting point in my lineups. He’s leading the Kings in usage rate at 26.9% and FPPM at 1.11 and this is a perfect spot for him to have a big game. Not only does Houston allow the most point per game so far, it matches their dead last defensive rating. They’ve managed to accomplish that in spite of playing slow “Harden ISO Ball” the first two games and Fox won’t be under $8,000 too often. Fox will not be the last King in the article and he ranks 10th in drives per game. Houston is dead last in points in the paint so far.
Mike Conley ($6,700 DK/$6,300 FD) – The hero of last cash article I wrote, Conley just missed a triple double. Don’t expect that again but the floor is safe with around 32 minutes per night and a 25% usage rate so far. It’s early on, but Chris Paul on the other side is sporing the lowest defensive rating of his career. His price is a touch higher than I would like, but I can see myself using him with his safety and the fact there’s only five games.
George Hill ($4,700 DK/$5,500 FD) – Is the true shooting percent of 68.9% going to stick for Hill? Of course not as that would be ridiculously high but we’re not just after him for shooting. His 22.9% usage rate is behind only Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on the Thunder squad and the 1.27 FPPM currently leads. That will drop as the shooting does, but at about 25 minutes a night he’s still a strong value on DK. The Pels do allow the most three point attempts per game early on, which helps Hill. On FD, we can play this next player for a cheaper price and I bet that’s what the field does, making him priority.
Elf Payton ($5,900 DK/$5,200 FD) – This might sound utterly ridiculous, but Payton is a player that when everything goes right for him can threaten a triple-double in any given game. He got close-is last game and I’m not always a fan of Payton in cash, but he’s going to gain some traction. He’s played 29 and 36 minutes the past two games and he’s paid off both times. The usage rate is right with any of the Knicks for the team lead as well. Toronto plays at a top 10 pace which lends itself to Payton’s preferred script. On FD, he’s the cheapest you can go and most likely will.
James Harden ($11,000 DK/$11,500 FD) – Harden will always be in a cash article because he’s always going to have a super safe floor and high ceiling. The return of John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins and others might actually help him slightly. Of course he gets the defensive attention, but at least there’s other players than G-League scrubs with him now. Harden has only had a 34.9% usage rate so far and he’s only taken a total of 37 shots through two games. If he can score 78 and 55 DK points on under 20 shots per game, that says everything you need to know.
Devin Booker ($8,600 DK/$7,500) – I’d place a pretty strong wager on Booker being chalk on FD because the price just doesn’t match his pedigree. He’s another player that hasn’t quite found the stroke yet with his shot but that won’t last long. He’s shooting about 31% from deep (35% last year) and 77% from the free throw line. Not only did he hit FT’s at a 91.9% clip last year, he found the stripe 9.6 times per game. So far this year it’s under five times. Look at last night. Paul George was $7,600 at this position and uber chalk in cash. Booker will be as well I suspect and we need to be on the explosion game.
Fred VanVleet ($7,200 DK/$7,200 FD) – If you decide to spend up on both spots on FD, consider VanVleet. He is just third on the team in usage rate so far, but the gap is only four percent between him and Pascal Siakam. FVV is another shooter scuffling early (there’s likely a bigger discussion to be had about shooters adjusting to empty arenas. The Bubble had the same two courts, so less adjustment). He’s shooting 36.4% from the floor and 32.1% from long range. That’s just not going to keep up. Having said that, Booker is the much higher priority, likely paired with a cheaper option.
Buddy Hield ($6,800 DK/$5,400 FD) – He’s too pricey for my liking on DK but on FD it’s a different story. You have to field tow shooting guards and Hield is simply too cheap on that site. His FPPM looks hideous right now with a 0.77 mark but the usage is solid at 19.2%. Hield is only shooting 38% from deep, while his career mark is closer to 41% so that’s hurting him a bit. His true shooting is down a bit too, so the price is just too low for him on FD. The Rockets are allowing over a 40% rate of three pointers and the second-highest make rate at 43.4%. Buddy might get right in a hurry tonight. Tyrese Haliburton makes for an excellent GPP pivot but you’ll have to read Ghost’s Gems for that one!
Brandon Ingram ($8,000 DK/$9,400 FD) – BI is fairly priced on DK and he’s overpriced a bit on FD, but I’m locking him on the latter site. Why? This position might be the trash can of the night. The options are HIDEOUS at first glance, and Ingram is the only one I WANT to play. That’s no even talking about I need two. I’ll figure something else out at other positions because the 30% usage rate and 1.31 FPPM is too good to pass up. On DK, I am still interested but the priority is not the same.
OG Anunoby ($5,800 DK/$6,500 FD) – I’m not in love with the pricing on either site, but he plays the trash can position on FD. We say minutes equal money and OG has played 36, 35 and 36 minutes so far. He’s also second in steals per game, which is an awesome bonus on FD. It just so happens that the Knicks are third in turnovers per game as a team and OG should have some chances to be a thief tonight. If he fits, he can be played with safety in mind. He could pilfer his way into 12-15 FD points on just that alone.
RJ Barrett ($6,900 DK/$6,200) – Hey remember when Barrett was the number three pick behind Zion and Ja Morant? Most people don’t, but Barrett has started to look like a player that resembles that pick a little more. He still needs work but the Maple Mamba (that’s his legit nickname on Basketball Reference) is logging a boatload of minutes. Barrett is up to 37 minutes a night. With a 23% usage rate, that can be enough to be considered.
Harrison Barnes ($5,400 DK/$5,900 FD) – Never really a player that I’d want to use, Barnes checks the box that he’ll play meaningful minutes and I can play him at SF. You may need to stack one more member of a team than you normally would tonight, but that can happen on a four game slate like FD has. The Kings fall into that category with the matchup against Houston. Let’s face it, Wall and Boogie Cousins won’t improve a defense, nor will Eric Gordon. Barnes quietly has the second-most minutes played on Sacramento and sits at a 0.91 FPPM. If we lack value, he’ll do.
Zion Williamson ($7,900 DK/$8,300 FD) – Let me ask you something – who on the Thunder squad can stop Zion down low? He’s seventh in paint touches and 14th in rebounding chances so far and the Thunder do not have an adequate defender down low to throw against him. Al Horford is solid, but lacks any kind of athleticism to stop him. Mike Muscala? More like Mike Muscal-outta my way if you’re Zion. On FD, going Ingram due to positional strength but on DK, give me Zion as the bull in a china shop down low.
Julius Randle ($8,800 DK/$8,000 FD) – Especially on FD, I think folks will keep riding the Randle train and who can blame them? He’s scored at least 36 FD points every time out and is playing all the minutes you could ask for. He leads the Knicks in minutes and FPPM at 1.32. No player has a higher usage rate and they will need him to help contain the next player on our list. Randle was very chalky on FD the last time out so he likely falls that way again.
Pascal Siakam ($8,300 DK/$7,400 FD) – You can make the argument to just play Randle and Spicy P and watch them battle all night long. Both of them have been strong defenders so far, with Siakam being the only one with the reputation. However, through four games Randle is sporting the best defensive rating of his career. Siakam leads the Raptors in usage at 25.2% and just misses the lead in FPPM (Kyle Lowry, but both are at 1.07 and 1.05). I don’t think Siakam is the best price on DK, but FD is appealing to be sure.
Marvin Bagley ($5,300 DK/$5,100) – I want to be clear that I’m not telling you to play ALL of these Kings, but two or three could work out just fine. Bagley average a little over six paint touches per game also far and four field goal attempts in the paint. The Rockets are 26th in paint points allowed and maybe that could improves with Boogie off the bench. I’m still not sweating it at this price point with Bagley. He’s one of the few players that I would consider at only about 25 minutes per game. Bagley could double-double here.
Bojan Bogdanovic ($5,800 DK/$4,900) – Bojan is absolutely FD only for a play here and it’s just because of the salary/position combo. I mentioned with Terrence Ross that I don’t like playing shooters. That is Bojan, who only has a 0.82 FPPM despite a 22% usage rate. He’s played at least 33 minutes, but the outcomes are still sketchy. He scored nine real points and barely broke 20 FD, but he’s about as cheap as you can go with a 30 FD point outcome within range.
Rudy Gobert ($7,500 DK/$7,700 FD) – We aren’t going far as Gobert is as steady as they come. He’s already second in field goal attempts inside the paint and fifth in paint touches. Phoenix has been strong about points in the paint, ranking inside the top 10 but the rebounds in the paint per game are 27th. Gobert is third in rebound chances per game so far. He just seems like a totally safe bet for 40 points on either site.
Deandre Ayton ($7,400 DK/$7,100 FD) – I’ll be very up front and say I’m almost certainly not playing Ayton in cash. He’s not playing a ton of minutes so far, 30 or fewer in all four games. He is producing a 1.14 FPPM which is a little promising but the minutes have been so low, it hasn’t translated to much above 4x. They will need his size against Gobert to be sure, but then you worry about foul trouble. I’m MUCH more likely to find the money for Gobert as I think he can get Ayton off the floor quickly. If Ayton stays out of foul trouble, he has to be there to defend Gobert. That should lead him to fall into a floor game if nothing else.
Mitchell Robinson ($5,600 DK/$5,200 FD) – Right now it’s either Gobert or spend down to Mitchell in my eyes, with not much in between. Robinson is a double-double threat and he’s played over 30 minutes the past two games. He’s payed off with at least 25 FD points. The Raptors are a little bit small up front with Marc Gasol out of town, but Robinson has talent just waiting to pop. He’s at a 0.86 FPPM, but I’ll be honest about this. Gobert looks like the safest option BY FAR on Wednesday night.
Updated after projections run and we get some news.
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We are still in the early going and getting ourselves into the swing of the 2020-2021 season. Don’t worry folks we’re just getting going when it comes to building your bankroll over the 72 game season. We all enjoy playing the NFL but we are reaching the end and the NBA for me has created the largest runs in terms of profits night after night. Every single night you have an opportunity to grow your profits and put yourself into position to be successful over the long term. Especially for this Cash Game NBA Breakdown for 12.30! And don’t forget to check out our NBA Projection Model and Cheat Sheet to lock in the best of them!
Since this is a smaller slate we don’t absolutely need to plant the same flags on games that we usually would in a larger slate. Keep in mind though that when it comes to cash you still need to stay away from high risk plays so just because all games are in play it doesn’t mean all players are ok. Enough minutia though let’s get into my Cash Game NBA Breakdown for 12.30.
A few of the plays from yesterday will remain and you’ll need to adjust based on any information that you hear throughout the day when it comes to the Bucks/Heat game. As the rotations become clear you can cross guys off the list to determine your cash pool.
The same things including the price applies with Giannis tonight. I know he played poorly last night but I will remain confident in his ability. He may be a better GPP play due to his 10% ownership last night and dud of a performance but he only played 24 minutes due to the blowout. The Bucks did come motivated as expected and proceeded to smash the Heat by almost 50. I don’t expect that to happen again.
Giannis and the Bucks emotions are still probably raw from their dismissal from the playoffs just a few short months ago at the hands of this same Heat team. Nothing needs to really be said about Giannis as a player. He will be extremely motivated and he might not be dealing with Butler tonight. Lock and load.
It’s Luka, against Charlotte, without Porzingis. Moving on.
How is he below 9K tonight??? In what should be the highest scoring (238.5), highest pace game (105.0 and 105.2 respectively) of the night I was expecting a price tag around $9,500. His usage rate over the first three games was around 30% and now Dinwiddie is out for the season meaning more chances for Irving to take over. Look for Irving to take north of 20 shots tonight.
Another severe mispricing in the highest total game of the evening with a near 30% usage superstar with more shots to go around. KD looks like he’s 100% after his Achilles injury and he is on fire from behind the arc (.692 from 3). No need to overthink this one too much. Either Nets stud can be considered in your lineup.
Tyler really likes going ham against his hometown team and for some reason DK reduced his price by $300 dollars for no reason. All Herro did was drop 40.25 DK points and 23 real life points in 33 minutes of blowout action. My Heat plays depend on Jimmy not playing so be ready to pivot away from both if the team is at full strength. Still may use Herro in either situation but it is worth noting.
If we find out Jimmy is out again, and the reason for last night’s strange events weren’t caused by a larger problem, I’m going right back to Dragic today. I don’t think I can recall another instance where he was yanked off the court after 10 minutes and let us all down in this fashion. I’m gonna keep an eye on it but if the scenario is the same I’m running him out there again. If Jimmy plays he’s a full fade in cash.
There is a huge hole in the Grizzlies offense without Ja Morant. An enormous 40% usage rate sized hole. Tyus is one of several Grizzlies that I’m eyeing for my cash lines as he is expected to take over as the starting point guard. Grizzlies are 7th in pace this season so there are a ton of shots to go around.
See above. 43.25DK points, 30.7% usage rate and 19 shots when Morant left the game.
See above above. 41.25DK points, 27.3% usage rate and 17 shots when Morant left the game
As always I’ll reiterate that this is not a catch all in terms of plays available. The biggest value plays and key pivots WILL come along in the final hour leading up to lineup lock. Be sure that you are in Discord leading up to tipoff.
Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Sports Draftkings Cash Game NBA Breakdown For 12.30. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord Chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!
We are still in the early going and getting ready to start our second week of NBA action tonight. Don’t worry folks we’re just getting going when it comes to building your bankroll over the 72 game season. We all enjoy playing the NFL but we are reaching the end and the NBA for me has created the largest runs in terms of profits night after night. Every single night you have an opportunity to grow your profits and put yourself into position to be successful over the long term. Especially for this Cash Game NBA Breakdown for 12.29! And don’t forget to check out our NBA Projection Model and Cheat Sheet to lock in the best of them!
Since this is a large slate one thing you’ll need to do is plant your flags on certain games. Unless you have a min priced lock play in a low scoring game you want to focus on the highest totals with lower spreads and build your core that way. Enough minutia though let’s get into my Cash Game NBA Breakdown for 12.29.
There are games I will focus my attention on in cash. By no means is this list comprehensive given the size of the slate so if you don’t see player or team on here that doesn’t mean that you should fade that player or team. These are just the spots that I have chosen to focus my attention on in my cash contests. Additionally, we want to build our NBA cash lines the same way that we do NFL cash lineups. Try to limit full game stacks and do not worry about high ownership. You can run multiple players from the same games but try to avoid “game stacks” or where the majority of your build revolves around one contest.
If you are new to NBA this season I am sure you have already noticed the issues that come with DFS. NBA teams are “required” to give us lineups an hour before lock yet we have already had several player listed as out after the game locks. Wish I could help you with that but that is the nature of the beast. We all have to deal with it.
Giannis and the Bucks emotions are still probably raw from their dismissal from the playoffs just a few short months ago at the hands of this same Heat team. Nothing needs to really be said about Giannis as a player. He will be extremely motivated and he might not be dealing with Butler tonight. Lock and Load.
In the highest total game of the evening and the expected pace and lack of defense I still feel that Levine is underpriced by $600-$800 on DraftKings. He finally found himself in a game that wasn’t a blowout the other night and finished with over 50 DK points. The first two blowout games may have benefited us when it comes to pricing, and the potential lack of Lauri will funnel more usage to Lavine giving him a bump in both floor and ceiling.
The Clippers are clearly having issues on the defensive side of the court in the early going and now the Timberwolves will show up to tonight’s contest and may not have to deal with Kawhii Leonard as he is dealing with a….mouth laceration…With Karl-Anthony Towns also out tonight the majority of the offensive will flow through Russell in a 228 total game where they are expected to be down. We could see a scenario where D’Angelo takes 25 shots just to keep his team close.
If Jimmy Butler sits Dragic will be a necessary addition to your cash lineups. He always seems to dramatically exceed expectation from a point per dollar perspective whenever he sees starter minutes. I can’t honestly remember a situation last season where he didn’t at least see 6x his salary in these moments and he’s averaging 40 DK points as a backup in his first two. Don’t overthink this one.
The Cavs are already a triage unit with five guys including Kevin Love currently expected to miss this game against should be another basement dwelling team in the Knicks. Nance exploded in the season opener with a 50 DK point performance against the Hornets and as bad as they are, they still aren’t the Knicks. It is the lowest total game of the night but it is still a 215 total with only a 3.5 point spread so don’t be scared of taking a piece or two in this one. With the already limited rotation and the opponent you might be pleasantly surprised.
Originally I thought Nicolas Batum was another “wait for Kawhii news” selection but with Marcus Morris expected to miss Batum should get a bump in minutes and usage no matter what happens with Leonard. Against the Nuggets the other night he saw 36 minutes and gave us 37 DK points in what was an objectively harder matchup. Timberwolves are a terrible team defensively on the best of days and now with Towns out again (Jimmy Butler was right but that’s another conversation) with a wrist injury the Clippers should be able to score at will. Batum is an extremely well rounded player who can fill up every line of the stat sheet and that well rounded nature is a perfect fill in for a guy like Morris. He’s 100% lock for me if no Leonard but I’ll have a good bit of him no matter what.
This play is dependent upon the status Lauri Markkanen who is dealing with a calf injury. If he is determined to be limited or out tonight it’s wheels up for a sub 4k Thaddeus Young. He is nothing special but considering the pace and potential minutes he will see he’ll become one of the centerpieces of my cash lineups tonight.
He is still criminally underpriced for his potential ceiling and he still finds himself as one of our top point per dollar plays as of 1:30 PM but this could change in an instant. He’s getting around 30 minutes a game thus far and the Warriors are a complete mess defensively without Draymond Green and Klay Thompson on the court and now Marquise Chriss injured they are even more anemic.
Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Sports Draftkings Cash Game NBA Breakdown For 12.29. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord Chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!
We have a five game slate at hand tonight and it’s really interesting. We have the Nets on a back to back and possibly (probably) without Kevin Durant and Spencer Dinwiddie. Additionally, we have the Fighting Houston Hardens with Christian Wood in tow. Oh, that hasn’t even mentioned the Lakers yet. There’s a LOT of high-priced studs in great spots, so we’ll need to choose wisely tonight. Let’s break it all down and get onto the right plays in NBA Cash Game Breakdown 12/28 to get into the green once again!
Kyrie Irving ($9,000 DK/$9,400 FD) – If the Nets are without a resting Durant, Irving is going to be hard to not want to play. These two really haven’t played without the other on the floor yet, but KD has a usage rate right about 30%. Kyrie is going to absorb a good bit of that, likely close to 40%. Memphis is playing at a top-five pace and are 26th in defensive rating so far.
*Update* Kyrie is OUT tonight
Ja Morant ($8,300 DK/$8,500 FD) – I said at the time of the draft that the Pelicans had to take Zion, but the Grizzlies got one of the best consolation prizes in a while. Morant has been excellent out of the gate, boasting a 35% usage rate, 1.63 FPPM and averaging over 30 real points. He’s underpriced on both sites and I’m comfortable with him in cash though I may have to reserve him for GPP only based on who else we have to fit.
Mike Conley ($6,300 DK/$6,300 FD) – Nobody really wakes up in the morning and gets excited to play Conley. However, point guard isn’t exactly overflowing with a ton of options. Conley is going to see 32-34 minutes on a nightly basis with a 25.1% usage rate so far. here’s always something to be said for safe and uninspiring options in cash.
George Hill ($4,500 DK/$5,400 FD) – I’m slightly leery on this one but he’s cheap enough to not get too worked up. Hill played just 24 minutes and shot 8-9, including 4-4 from deep. He’s not scoring 21 real points super often but the 19.9% usage rate was second among starters. That’s enough at this price range.
*Update* – Delon Wright is high up in the model.
James Harden ($11,200 DK/$11,500 FD) – All Fat Harden did in the first game was produce a 34.3% usage rate, 1.82 FPPM and 44 real points. Yes, OT goosed the final production but this is still Harden with almost nobody else. Harden is still the most important play in cash with a bullet point. Denver has also allowed 55 points per game in the paint (most in the NBA) and a 42% from three (sixth-worst). That could be a lethal combo for Harden.
Dennis Schroeder ($6,100 DK/$6,000 FD) – Anthony Davis missed yesterday and I could envision one of AD or LeBron sitting tonight. Either way, Schroeder isn’t a terrible play. He could be a touch overpriced with Bron and AD both in, but he’s getting 25-28 minutes a night and can score in bunches. He’s third on the team in usage rate at 26.5% to boot.
Lugentz Dort ($4,300 DK/$4,700 FD) – Dort is cheap enough to consider on both sites as he played 34 minutes for the rebuilding Thunder squad. The usage rate was actually higher than I thought at 16.4% in the first contest, but the 0.83 FPPM can pay off this low salary. We need some value somewhere. Look at it this way – if you pair Dort and Harden, you can hopefully snag 90-100 fantasy points for about $15,000.
Dillon Brooks ($5,500 DK/$3,700 FD) – I might be more likely to side with Dort on DK but Brooks is a glaring value on FD. He’s barely above minimum and has played 30 and 33 minutes. At least early, the 26.5% usage and 0.98 FPPM is eye-opening too. He’s generally a player that needs to shoot at least average to hit value, but on FD I just don’t know how you pass him up in a game like this at barely minimum.
Caris LeVert ($6,600 DK/$6,300 FD) – If Durant and Dinwiddie are out, LeVert is the next candidate to join the starting lineup and be Kyrie’s tag team partner. LeVert proved in the bubble he’s capable of being a force in the NBA and all the usage and FPPM that KD soaks up is up for grabs. If Durant plays, consider him much more of a GPP play but it behooves the Nets to be smart with KD.
*Update* With Kyrie out, LeVert is going back to Bubble LeVert and is an absolute LOCK TONIGHT
Jerami Grant ($5,900 DK/$5,700 FD) – He’s not likely to hit 50 DK like last game (it would be sweet) but Grant is still a valuable piece tonight. Blake Griffin and Derrick Rose have been ruled out already for Detroit. Grant is already sitting at an 18.4% usage rate and a 0.97 FPPM while being under $6,000 on both sites. The game log watchers will be on him as well. He’s played 31 and 43 minutes, which would have been 33 without OT. Grant should be around 34 minutes tonight and he’s a double-double threat, especially in a high-paced game.
Kyle Anderson ($5,100 DK/$4,600 FD) – I think this would be an FD-only play since you need two. Slo-Mo has played 29 and 36 minutes and he can fill the stat sheet a little bit. He’s recorded 10 and 14 rebounds and plays hard, and when you catch him on a night where he scores he’s got a little bit of upside. Just like Conley, this is boring but minutes equal money.
Joe Harris ($4,300 DK/$4,300 FD) – Only if the Nets are down multiple pieces, and I do prefer LeVert and Grant on FD.
Jae’Sean Tate ($4,100 DK/$4,200 FD) – We’re a week into NBA and I’m writing up someone I didn’t know existed before Saturday. Tate (who is only PF on DK) was the darling of the model in the first game for the Rockets and he paid off in spades. Tate played 37 minutes and put up 13 real points. The Rockets like his hard-nosed style and I would think he earned himself some minutes while the Rockets are so short-handed. Tate played the fifth-most minutes behind Harden, Christian Wood, P.J. Tucker and Danuel House.
*Update* Josh Jackson is a model darling tonight and is the best of cheap SF options. He will be in all my cash games.
Christian Wood ($7,200 DK/$8,100 FD) – Speaking of Wood, he has to be in the cash conversation tonight. He’s just a C on DK and a little cheaper, but he flashed the appeal and ceiling to his game Saturday. He hardly left the court and produced a 1.23 FPPM en route to a 31/13 50 burger on DK. As much as I love Nikola Jokic, nobody has accused him of being a staunch defender. Wood had 15 paint touches Saturday, which would lead the league on a per game basis if it held up. It will until the Rockets are full-strength. With the Nuggets getting abused in the paint early, Wood remains an elite target.
Darius Bazley ($5,700 DK/$5,800 FD) – The Thunder continue to be a team that brings some sort of value and Bazley fits the bill. He played 33 minutes and had some defensive stats in a steal and two blocks to go along with a 15-10 double-double. The scoring is questionable, but the rest of the package isn’t as much.
Lakers Value – Keep an eye on Kyle Kuzma and/or Markieff Morris if AD or LeBron happens to be out.
Bojan Bogdanovic – FD play only because you have to have two players. This is an ugly position as of Sunday night.
Nikola Jokic ($9,800 DK/$10,000 FD) – I’m not going to be able to play him in cash in all likelihood just due to who I need ahead of him. However, there’s no reason to not play him in cash. He’s one rebound short of consecutive triple-doubles to star the year. The Rockets are did bring in Wood, but he’s not going to stop Joker. He has a 1.54 FPPM on the season so far.
Rudy Gobert ($7,400 DK/$7,700 FD) – There’s really not a big man on the Thunder that’s going to pose much of a challenge. Yes, Al Horford used to be an elite defender but Gobert has a couple inches on him. He’s not what he used to be and Gobert plays about 30 minutes every night. He’s a Barbara Walters threat every night and has grabbed 17 boards in each game so far.
Mason Plumlee ($5,700 DK/$6,000 FD) – He had a little trouble with fouls last game but he’s kind of like a “Joker Jr.” early on. I’m certainly not comparing his skill level to Jokic, but Plumlee can pass the ball and make a play here and there. He’s assisted on at least five buckets in each of the first two games and is a solid rebounder. If Clint Capela plays, that does present a tougher challenge but the price is still solid for Plum and his 1.00 FPPM.
P.J. Tucker ($4,800 DK/$4,300 FD) – He’s one player that puts the phrase “minutes equal money” to the test, as Tucker can do nothing for loooooong stretches. Still, he’s really cheap and the Rockets will need him on the floor as much as he can handle tonight. Tucker played 42 minutes the first game and playing under 40 would be an upset in my eyes. He appears to be the lowest we can go for NBA Cash Game Breakdown 12/28.
James Harden, Christian Wood, Caris LeVert, Taurean Prince
Ja Morant will be my other stud of choice in cash game settings tonight.
Thank you for reading and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
Today we are looking at a Sunday NBA GPP Picks 12/27 with nine games scheduled for the slate again. Every game on this slate will be featuring a team on a back-to-back and teams could elect to be cautious this early in the season. Since there was previous inklings Russell Westbrook will sit out one of the back-to-back games we should keep an eye on that situation after he played last night. That Orlando vs Washington game is projected as the highest total again at 230 1/2.
Another notable situation is with the Timberwolves as Karl Anthony Towns got injured in last nights game and said he has “heavy soreness” after the game. If those two players alone are out that is a ton of usage and value to be had on this slate. For this article I will be using DraftKings pricing to find the best point per dollar plays at each position based upon my research. Lets get into this back-to-back heavy slate!
NBA GPP Picks 12/27
Steph Curry– ($9,300)
We finally have a game that Steph and company may keep close as the spread is currently just three. It comes as no surprise as of now this game opened as highest total on the slate at 228 ½ according to DraftKings sports book. Chicago has yet to stop either team they faced surrendering 124 and 125 points in those games. Trae Young lit up the Bulls scoring 37 points in only 26 minutes. Steph is the lead dog in this offense and if he shoots 21 times like on opening night the fantasy upside in this matchup is glorious. The defense or lack thereof in this Chicago backcourt should allow Steph to have a massive day even if Draymond Green returns.
Tomas Satoransky – ($4,300)
D’angelo Russell – ($7,600) especially if towns is out
SG
Terrence Ross – ($4,700)
Orlando draws the same matchup as they had last night which saw them score 130 points and Ross specifically scoring 33.5 fantasy points. Ross has played nearly 30 minutes in both game and shot 14 times in both games. This is a cheap price to get a guy like Ross that heads the second unit and shots plenty including from long range. Washington’s defense just got torched by this Magic team and the game is projected as the highest total. again.
Alec Burks – ($5,400)
SF
Tobias Harris – ($6,600)
What a magnificent matchup for Harris facing Clevland as they have allowed over 45 fantasy points in both games to just the starting small forwards this season. Although Harris is yet to have a big game he has taken the second most shot attempts among the team in both games only trailing Embiid. Already this season Cleveland has been apart of some huge total games so picking on them isn’t a bad idea. 45 fantasy points is not out of the question for Harris at all. He is every bit as good as Gordon Hayward and Jerami Grant, those being the two starters to carve the Cavs up.
Demar Derozan – ($7,300)
PF
Jayson Tatum – ($8,800)
Without Kemba Walker the usage for Tatum to start the season has been thru the roof. In just two games Tatum has already attempted 50 shots this season. He should see the weakest defender in the starting lineup for Indiana in TJ Warren, just ask Jimmy Butler. DraftKings has dropped Tatum’s price below 9k for the first time this season even though he almost dropped a 50 burger already. If Tatum gets 36 minutes and shoots it 25 times like he has been it is highly likely he exceeds value today.
Jae Crowder – ($5,000)
C
Bismack Biyombo – ($3,800)
We should see Biyombo get the start again against the Nets with Zeller out. Getting the starting nod and seeing 30 minutes of court time allowed Biyombo to hit value by scoring over 25 fantasy points last night even with shooting 2-7 from the field. The real question is if Charlotte can keep this game close enough for the starters to see close to 30 minutes. If I get 30 minutes out of a center at this price its almost hard for them to under perform unless foul trouble occurs. Minutes equal money in NBA and that showed for Biyombo yesterday exceeding value only making two of his seven shots.
Naz Reid – ($4,200) could be a great move if Towns is out.
Zion Williamson – ($8,200)
Golden State vs Chicago game
Steph Curry – 25.5 points (MORE) 20 shot attempts against the Bulls should be plenty to his this mark.
Zach Lavine – 23.5 points (MORE)
There is potential for loads of slate altering news with 12 teams from this slate being on second leg of a back-to-back. Two more teams are on the first leg of a back-to-back as well. A fantastic option to stay updated on any news is in our Discord Chat rooms with myself and the WinDaily family. We follow all NBA news and help you make the proper changes necessary. If players get ruled out It could be a tricky slate so be sure to join us to make the game changing adjustments. Hopefully your Sunday football or basketball DFS slate brings you money. Best of luck with your NBA lineups and thanks for tuning into my article!
There were not a ton of misses in the article yesterday and that’s what we love to see. Tonight we’re already down a stud player in Russell Westbrook and we have multiple teams on back to back situations. Even in this early stage of the season, that needs to be monitored through the day. Please make sure you’re in the Discord to get all pertinent updates for what you need to know for the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 12/27!
Kyrie Irving ($9,100 DK/$9,400 FD) – Kyrie has been absolutely cooking early on with a 27.4% usage rate and a 1.59 FPPM. The blowout concern is real, as the Hornets are on a B2B but I still feel like Kyrie is underpriced. Also, the spread is currently only eight points so I don’t make decisions until the spread gets to about 12 points. The Nets are playing at a top 10 pace early on and that’s not going anywhere.
Steph Curry ($9,300 DK/$8,300 FD) – Steph is the better value on FD but I’m still comfortable playing him in cash on both sites. Yes, they’ve gotten smoked the first two games but tonight they play the Bulls. I don’t think they can lose by the third quarter here and Curry is not going to shoot 20% from deep for much longer.
De’Aaron Fox ($8,100 DK/$8,400 FD) – Rinse and repeat. Fox gets the Suns again on a back to back and his price dropped. There’s no reason to not feel comfortable going back to the well.
Markelle Fultz ($6,000 DK/$5,900) – Another home and home spot and Fultz has started off the season hot. He scored 21 points last night and has average 18/4.5/5.5 in the first two. In this spot against a poor defensive team, sign me up again.
Darius Garland ($5,900 DK/$6,200 FD) – Garland is over a 20% usage rate to start the season and he’s played at least 32 minutes in each game. Cleveland will ask their young backcourt of Garland and Collin Sexton to do a lot this year, even on B2B.
Ish Smith ($5,700 DK/$3,900 FD) – He’s almost minimum on FD and you need two point guards. Do the math. He should start for Westbrook tonight (and if he doesn’t I’m not that excited for him) and has played 22 minutes in each game so far. If he gets closer to 30, he’s a free square on FD and still a strong play on DK.
*Update* The Model is loving Raul Neto, so keep an eye out for who’s starting.
Jeff Teague ($4,400 DK/$5,200 FD) – Teague burned everyone on Christmas Day, but he’s still going to play 20+ minutes and has the third-highest usage behind Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. That’s enough for me and he’s a better play on DK than he is on FD.
Bradley Beal ($8,900 DK/$8,500 FD) – The FD pricing is disrespectful and it seems crazy to me that DK knew Russ was sitting tonight and still lowered Beal’s price. Still, he’s one of my highest priorities for the night with no Westbrook. This comes with a giant grain of salt due to a 12 minute sample size, but Beal has a 41% usage rate with Westy off the court early. He’s my starting point in NBA Cash Game Breakdown 12/27.
Devin Booker ($9,500 DK/$7,500 FD) – I can almost promise I won’t have Booker on DK, but give me a break with this FD price. It’s not even a question for a player of Booker’s caliber. He should never be under $8,000.
Zach LaVine ($7,900 DK/$7,000 FD) – It hasn’t been the smoothest start for LaVine as the fantasy production hasn’t been there. However, there’s two factors to note. One, he hasn’t played over 28 minutes yet. Two, the usage rate is a ridiculous 38.3%. He’s too cheap on both sites and it’s a matter of time before he’s heading towards 50 fantasy points.
Eric Bledsoe ($5,800 DK/$5,600 FD) – You need to have short memories when a player flops due to shooting. That was the case with Bledsoe on Christmas Day. He’s still third on the team in usage rate at about 20% and he’s played 33 and 34 minutes so far.
Seth Curry ($5,100 DK/$4,500 FD) – He’s a guy that can get ho behind the arc but has played an average of 30 minutes in the first two games. He’s too cheap for his role, and 0.71 FPPM is enough for this amount of court time and salary.
*Update* LeBron is a bigger priority now that Anthony Davis has been ruled out.
Kevin Durant ($9,400 DK/$9,500 FD) – KD is only PF eligible on DK but either way, he’s a valuable player. Already playing 33 minutes and looking as smooth as ever, Durant and Kyrie are forming a very formidable duo. He actually has a 2% lead in usage over Kyrie.
Brandon Ingram($8,000 DK/$7,800 FD) – One of the bright young stars in the game, Ingram has racked up a usage rate over 29% so far and has a 1.31 FPPM. He’s played 37 minutes in each contest and that combo can’t be overlooked in this pricing tier.
Jaylen Brown ($7,100 DK/$8,000 FD) – Brown and Tatum have been running the Cletics early and they have identical 33% usage rates. Brown has a slight edge in FPPM at 1.35 so far and has poured in at least 27 real points in both games. The Pacers played last night and may have slightly tired legs.
Tobias Harris ($6,600 DK/$6,400 FD) – There’s nothing wrong with looking at some Sixers as the Cavs played a double overtime game last night. Harris or Curry gets a cheaper path than Ben Simmons or Joel Embiid and Harris has a 20.7% usage rate so far. He can be a little scoring reliant, but the salary is low enough to still consider.
Keldon Johnson ($5,500 DK/$5,100) – Let’s just say I’m happy I only have to field one on DK. It’s not my favorite position ad maybe we’ll get a value to pop up. Johnson has played 32 and 28 minutes so far and I could see the Spurs using their vets a couple minutes fewer tonight. Johnson has accumulated almost a 20% usage rate so far and just over a 1.00 FPPM.
*Update* Cedi Osman – Kevin Porter and Isaac Okoro are both out tonight, vaulting Cedi into a bigger role.
*Update* Marcus Morris – He’s popping in the model and that’s all I need.
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,500 DK/$11,500) – Greek is the first and only Buck I’ll play in cash because if this game blow out (spread is 12.5 right now), I don’t think that happens without Giannis getting his. He still has nearly a 38% usage rat even with his new teammates in tow. He’s very underpriced on DK.
Jayson Tatum ($8,800 DK/$9,800 FD) – I don’t think Tatum will be under $9,000 too often on DK and that’s all we need. We talked about the same usage as Brown at 33% and he’s going to play around 35 minutes every single night.
Zion Williamson ($8,200 DK/$7,900 FD) – He exploded on Christmas and it was a good reminder of what exactly he can do. The 27.9% usage rate and 1.27 FPPM is awesome to start he season. Even better, he played 38 minutes. If we don’t have to sweat minutes and “bursts” with Zion this year, I’m going to love him a lot of nights.
Lauri Markkanen ($6,500 DK/$6,400 FD) – We don’t exactly love the usage rate at 17.8% but the 1.35 FPPM is sweet. Markkanen has played 27 and 30 minutes, and who’s going to guard him on the Warriors if Draymond Green remains out? If Dray is in, we don’t need to go here but I’ll take Markkanen against the like of Andrew Wiggins and Kelly Oubre all day.
Nemanja Bjeica ($4,800 DK/$3,900 FD) – I have a strong suspicion that Marvin Bagley will sit tomorrow. The Kings will be cautious with their oft-injured big man so far. Bjecia should draw a spot start in that scenario. Make sure you check the Discord for info on this play. It’s contingent on other factors.
Joel Embiid ($9,800 DK/$9,900 FD) – He’s going to have the narrative going for him. He and Andre Drummond DO NOT like each other and have traded barbs on social media multiple times. Biid has had some monster games against Drum and some average ones.
He’s probably a little more GPP than cash, but I wanted to give him a note with the narrative working for him.
Nikola Vucevic ($8,300 DK/$8,200 FD) – Just far too cheap on each site. His price on DK is crazy as it dropped $800. All Vuc did last night was drop a 50 burger on DK and he could well do it again tonight.
Montrezl Harrell ($6,100 DK/$6,200 FD) – You may be surprised to see this is the first Laker in the article against the Wolves. Here’s the thing – neither LeBron nor Anthony Davis have been over 31 minutes so far. I don’t think that’s by accident with not even 75 days off. I am really loathe to pay top dollar for those guys when the minutes are lower. Enter Trez, who gets a great matchup and plays about 30 per night right now.
Bismack Biyombo *Update* I have serious concerns if he can keep up in this game. I don’t think I’m going there but it’s hard to kill your lineup at $3,800 if you play about 25 minutes.
Hassan Whiteside *Update* – It seems the model really likes Whiteside and perhaps he’s the answer if in fact Marvin Bagley is sitting (not official as of this writing)
*Note* As of Saturday night, there’s not a center that I love for cheap. We’ll update as we see fit but this may well be a position to spend a little bit on. Really, all cheap value hasn’t shown up yet but it will because it always does in NBA. Look for the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 12/27 to be updated as we can tomorrow.
Bradley Beal, LeBron James, Montrezl Harrell, Raul Neto
I’m perfectly fine playing 3 Lakers tonight out of LeBron, Schroeder, Rez and Morris. Neto should be able to pay off a meager price tag without much issue and I’ve loved Beal since last night. Stay tuned for changing factors the next couple of hours!
Thank you for reading and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
NBA GPP Picks 12/26
Welcome back to my NBA GPP Picks 12/26 as we have a nine-game slate to breakdown. I hope you all had a great Christmas, enjoyed time with family, and got to watch some basketball! We have a remarkably interesting slate on our hands with players being ruled out due to Covid and other injuries. There have been some rumblings that Russell Westbrook could rest for one of the back to back games so we will need to keep an eye on that.
On DraftKings Sportsbook the Washington vs Orlando game is projected to be the highest total at 228.5. It is no surprise to see DraftKings tighten up some of the pricing specifically in the high caliber players. In this article we will touch on the player that stands out to me most from each position based upon my research, I will include some honorable mentions as well. Let’s jump into the breakdown and see if we get a takedown!
NBA GPP Picks 12/26
PG
Malcolm Brogdon – ($7,400)
Brogdon is squaring off with the Bulls who just surrendered 37 points to Trae Young in only 26 minutes on the court. If he sees 35 minutes like in the opener it would allow Brogdon to rack up the points and peripheral stats again with this matchup. Chicago gave up 124 points in there opening game and I want to attack this Chicago team. In this spot Brogdon can easily repeat what he did opening day and he would crush his value at this price again.
Darius Garland – ($5,600) make sure Kevin Love is out again
SG
Buddy Hield – ($7,100)
As Bogdan Bogdanovic ended up in Atlanta that should result in Hield getting all the playing time at SG/SF for the kings. We saw proof in the first game although it went to overtime Hield saw 41 minutes in that game. This game is projected as the second highest total game on the slate. Most likely to draw Devin Booker defense, Hield should have the best positional matchup on his squad. Casting double digit three point attempts, a good matchup, and tons of playing time will allow Hield to hit value.
Alec Burks – ($5,600)
SF
Josh Jackson – ($4,500)
Starting off with a bang in Detroit Jackson scored 19 points off the bench and led the team in minutes off the bench with 29. Against the Wolves in the season opener Jackson led the team in shots attempted with fourteen. Other than the big men for Cleveland they are an extremely young team, I will look to attack them PG-SF. Cleveland just allowed Gordon Hayward and Terry Rozier massive games to open the season. Given the price, matchup and shot attempts in the opener Jackson has an excellent chance to hit value.
Danuel House Jr. – ($4,700)
PF
Darius Bazley – ($5,100)
With almost a complete makeover to this Thunder roster Bazley should slot in as the starting power forward. He figures to be a focal point in this offense, as he shot twelve times in just twenty-three minutes in their final preseason game. Those minutes were enough to allow Bazley to reach a double-double with points and rebounds. Bazley has an amazing matchup facing Charlotte who is already without Cody Zeller and allowed double doubles to both Nance Jr and Andre Drummond in the game Zeller went down.
Marvin Bagley – ($5,700)
C
Christian Wood – ($5,900)
You’re going to want pieces of this Houston value and usage and Wood is perfect for both. A handful of Rocket player’s have already been ruled out which opens a ton of usage on this team. With John Wall, Demarcus Cousins, and Eric Gordon already ruled out, Harden will handle a 40% usage rate or possibly higher. Although Wood only played in one preseason game, he was rather impressive posting a 27 point and 10 rebound stat line in just 24 minutes. He was a fantasy point per minute machine last season and he should see plenty of minutes with a huge chunk of usage in this game. Given the projected minutes and usage this price is simply too cheap.
Bismack Biyombo – ($3,600)
In the Charlotte vs Oklahoma City game
Gordon Hayward – 20.5 points (MORE) He was clearly a focal point in that offense. Cant believe his number is lower than SGA.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – 21.5 points (MORE) he should be the lead dog of this offense now
Thank you for taking the time to read my NBA GPP Picks 12/26! As I mentioned earlier there is potential for slate altering news with Westbrook possibly sitting one of these back to backs. Be sure to check out the Discord Chat rooms as myself and the rest of the WinDaily staff will break any news and help you make the right adjustments. You want pieces of Houston with all that usage needing to be ate up. There is some value on this slate (Houston, OKC) that should allow you to pay for Harden if you’d prefer. We have a fun slate for the day after Christmas and we have a little Saturday football slate as well. Enjoy your Saturday and Good luck on your lineups or bets!
We’re coming off a very weird Christmas Day slate where a lot of the chalk was pretty terrible. That’s not always the worst thing to happen in cash because if a player is 70% owned, you can survive. There’s already going to be some weirdness to the slate as the Rockets are down to barely eight players and Russell Westbrook might already be on a rest day. They’ll be plenty to shift through during the day, but let’s lay down the baseline here in NBA Cash Game Breakdown 12/26 and see those screenshots at the end of the night.
Russell Westbrook ($10,300 DK/$10,000 FD) If we assume that Westbrook plays, he’s far too cheap for what his potential role is in his new offense. He had a 35.53% usage rate in his first 36 minutes and that could be a sign of things to come. Westy posted a triple-double just like the old days and the Wizards were fifth in pace through the first game. That means Westbrook will have plenty of chances to stuff the stat sheet and the 33.5% usage rate should be fairly stable.
*Note* If Westy sits tonight, keep an eye on Ish Smith. He should be elevated to the starting lineup and would be a solid cheap piece to use in a spot start.
De’Aaron Fox ($8,700 DK/$8,200 FD) – I’d be more likely to use Fox on FD where I needed two point guards, but he’s in the discussion either way. He led the Kings in usage the first game at a 25.6% rate. Fox only had a 1.03 DKPM but he also just shot 8-20 from the field. He’s a little pricey with who we need to fit later on but the floor is there for Fox.
Dejounte Murray ($6,400 DK/$6,900 FD) – With Derrick White still out for the Spurs, Murray becomes a more reliable target. He has the ability to do a little bit of everything in a game and that’s the kind of player we like for cash games. He does still have LaMarcus Aldridge and DeMar DeRozan in the offense, but they all share the ball nicely and his 1.47 DKPM was second on the team in the first game. It’s not the easiest matchup he’ll ever ask for but it’s not enough to not play him either.
Markelle Fultz ($6,000 DK/$5,900 FD) – Fultz has really not been a cash target at any point of his career, but this season could be different. Veteran D.J. Augustin is not on the team anymore and Fultz played about 29 minutes in the first game. He also led the team in usage at 28.5% and kicked in four dimes and five assists to go with 25 real points.
George Hill ($3,400 DK/$5,000 FD) – He’s projected to start for OKC and we need some value along the way to get the main building block in cash. Hill may not do anything special, but we don’t need him to. He just needs to be a cog in the offense and Charlotte is not a scary defensive team. Even something like 10 points, five assists and a rebound or two is getting you where you need to be with Hill.
James Harden ($10,900 DK/$11,000 FD) – Some of the other high-end spends are nice, but if I see a cash lineup without Harden I’m not going to approve of it. Half the Rockets are out with Covid tracing, and Harden is basically the last man standing. Maybe he’s just going to tank it until the Rockets deal him but you cannot take that risk. Harden by himself (especially in this scenario) has 80 DK point upside. It might even be higher if he shows up. He is the Rockets tomorrow and should be $12,000 or higher on both sites. In the past, he’s approached 50% in usage rate. Don’t even think twice.
Bradley Beal ($9,300 DK/$8,100 FD) – I’d only make a strong effort to squeeze in Beal if Westbrook is out. It’s not surprising but Beal had the usage rate lead even with Westy at 35.8%. He’s easier to fit on FD but is appealing regardless.
Buddy Hield ($7,100 DK/$5,600 FD) – Another play that is more FD specific due to salary, Hield played 36 minutes last game not counting overtime. That’s a major sign in the absence of Bogdan Bogdanovic, as they tended to bite into each other’s minutes last year. If Hield consistently gets 32 minutes or more, he’s still too cheap on FD for a 0.84 FPPM.
Seth Curry ($5,400 DK/$4,500 FD) – I’m noting Curry only if we’re really value starved come tip tomorrow. The Sixers need his shooting and Curry played 32 minutes in the opener, which is a lot for this salary tier. He scored 13 real points and didn’t even shoot all that well, going just 1-5 from deep.
Sterling Brown ($3,200 DK/$3,500 FD) Brown is basically the minimum on each site and is one of the four guards that can play in this game. Sometimes, that’s about all you need.
Honorable Mention – De’Vonte Graham on FD
Gordon Hayward ($7,300 DK/$7,000 FD) – Whew, this position is tough on FD. Hayward may wind up chalky just be default and he shone in the first game with his new team. Considering what he’s getting paid, he better keep on doing it. He scored 28 points and added seven dimes for a 25.8% usage rate and a 1.27 FPPM. It’s not the ideal matchup, but the scarcity is real at SF.
R.J. Barrett ($6,600 DK/$6,300 FD) – I’m not banking on the 11-15 shooting from the floor again, but the 34 minutes should be solid through the year. The Knicks need to see how Barrett continues to grow at the pro level. I do sort of wish the usage was higher at 21.6% but when a player is nearly guaranteed 32 minutes or more, we need to pay attention.
Larry Nance ($6,800 DK/$7,000 FD) – Nance is only SF on FD, but he is on the radar at any position if Kevin Love is out again. He’s not going to threaten a triple-double very often but he still has a pretty clear cut route to 5-6x here. He’s not going to ever be a usage rate king but we know he does some of everything. I’ll be honest that I don’t love the price on either site. I am likely going elsewhere but he should be noted.
Jerami Grant ($5,200 DK/$5,100 FD) – It wasn’t the most sparkling of debuts for Grant but the minutes should be secure. He played 31 in opening night and got a nice payday from Detroit. Grant only hit 1-5 from beyond the arc and I think we can quickly establish that Cleveland is not going to be good defensively. The 16.9% usage rate is fine in his range.
Patrick Williams ($4,500 DK/$4,500 FD) – I would suspect that Williams will be extremely popular. He was chalk on Wednesday and paid off, which means the field will be happy to go back to the well. Williams played 33 minutes and would appear blowout-proof, a nice bonus on a team like the Bulls. The usage rate wasn’t special at 17.5% but the 0.82 FPPM would easily pay off this tag on both sites.
Danuel House ($4,700 DK/$3,700 FD) – I think on FD there’s a strong argument to play Hayward and one of House or Williams or just punt with both cheap players. Harden can’t score ALL the points in this game and House is no worse than the third-best shooter available for this game. With only eight players on the roster, House is likely playing nearly 35 minutes if not more.
Domantas Sabonis ($8,500 DK/$8,500 FD) – Talk about an absolute smash spot. Sabonis proved his injury issues are totally behind him en route to scoring over 30 real points and leading the team with a 30% usage rate. He played nearly 37 minutes and put up a 1.58 FPPM. There’s nobody that can stop him in the interior of the Bulls and if I can do it safely, the Harden and Sabonis pairing is what I’m shooting for.
Christian Wood ($5,900 DK/$6,700 FD) – It’s just rinse and repeat with the Rockets. They only have so many bodies and I think Harden and Wood are the locks. Past that, my plan is to pick one more of Brown, House or one more player we’ll talk about and run three Rockets. Give me 35 minutes from who we play and I’ll figure out the other five players. The big man came over from the Pistons and is a very popular breakout candidate. He’ll get the chance to hit the ground running tonight and is likely a lock at C on DK for me.
Marvin Bagley ($5,700 DK/$6,000 FD) – He might be capped at about 28 minutes, but what was interesting was how high the usage rate was in the first game. It led the team overall at 28.1% and the FPPM of 1.02 was based on poor shooing. He only went 5-14 overall and Phoenix gave up the second-most points in the paint and fourth-most rebounds in that first contest.
Bojan Bogdanovic ($5,900 DK/$4,900 FD) – Bojan is an FD play only due to price and positional requirements. Even with the Jazz wailing on the Blazers, Bojan played 33 minutes Wednesday. The usage was actually solid at 22.3% but that may come down. He’s a consistent scoring threat and the T-Wolves are going to be one of the worst defensive teams in the league.
Andre Drummond ($9,200 DK/$8,400 FD) – We’ve got a revenge spot for Drummond and he has a solid matchup walking back into Detroit. Drummond only played 27 minutes but still posted 14/14 in quick fashion. If he goes more towards 30-32 minutes, he can crush his former team.
Nikola Vucevic ($9,100 DK/$8,200 FD) – Pace up spot? Check. Great matchup on the inside against the Wizards? Check. Vuc is in a phenomenal spot and is really quite the bargain on FD. Another player that suffered from bad shooting, Vuc played 34 minutes in the season opener. That’s what we’re talking about in this spot.
P.J. Tucker ($5,200 DK/$4,200 FD) – Tucker rounds out our Rockets and like I mentioned, I think we play three of the five we’e talking about. Tucker plays 35 minutes when there’s a full compliment of players, he’s guaranteed to play that now. My preferred third target as of now is House, but we’ll see how the day shakes out. Either way, don’t be shy about Houston tonight. Tucker is also PF eligible on DK.
Mason Plumlee ($4,800 DK/$5,500 FD) – If you can’t afford Drummond, you can still look to the other side of the game. Plumlee killed it for us thanks to the model and he played almost 33 minutes in his Pistons debut. Nobody ever accused Drummond of being a quality defender and Detroit will need the size of Plum to deal with Drummond and Nance/maybe Kevin Love. The 1.02 FPPM will easily pay off again if it stays consistent.
James Harden, Christian Wood, Damontas Sabonis, Bismack Biyombo
I will also have one of Sterling Brown or David Nwaba as my third Rocket for salary relief
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