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NBA dfs

NBA DFS Core Plays And Best Bets Mar. 8

Shaun Evans 1 month ago

written by Shaun Evans

We get a six-game NBA DFS slate for Friday night and we have some solid spots to attack. Get my full breakdown of my core plays plus my favorite value spots. See which game I am going to be targeting and why. Plus, to top it off, I give my top two bets for tonights NBA action.

NBA DFS – Core Plays

Rudy Gobert $7,700 – 40.35 DK Points – 5.24 Value Rating

Rudy Gobert comes in at a huge discount while the Minnesota Timberwolves are without Karl-Anthony Towns. Now, it is against the Cleveland Cavaliers who manage to defend bigs very well. In three games this season without KAT, Gobert is averaging 17.3 points, 16 rebounds, and three blocks per game. He just recorded 18 points and 14 rebounds last night versus Indiana Pacers. At $7,700 and a value rating of 5.24, I do not want to pass up on Rudy Gobert . He can hit a solid ceiling with no Karl-Anthony Towns tonight.

Make sure you are signed up for our premium plan so you can stay up-to-date in Discord with any last-minute NBA news and any core changes. Get your first week for just $1 using the promo code “DOLLAR” using this link. Find me in Discord under the name “xfreshie” and tag me with any questions.

Lamar Stevens $4,100 – 24.15 DK Points – 5.89 Value Rating

Lamar Stevens has a solid matchup tonight versus the Atlanta Hawks as they continue to struggle versus forwards. The Hawks currently allow forwards to average 25.2 points, 10.7 rebounds, and 4.4 assists per game. On the offensive side for Lamar Stevens, his minutes have gone up lately as he is averaging 17.4 minutes per game. Alongside the minutes, he is averaging 10.2 points and 3.4 rebounds in his last five. With a solid matchup with a fast-paced environment, Lamar Stevens has a good chance to help give us the value we need.

Kyle Kuzma $7,800 – 44.70 DK points – 5.70 Value Rating

Kyle Kuzma gets a great matchup tonight versus Charlotte but also with the fast-paced play of the Washington Wizards, his value is at a top level. Coming in at just $7,800 versus the Hornets who allow 24.5 points, 11 rebounds, and 4.5 assists per game, Kuzma is a great play. The Hornets rank at the bottom when it comes to pace of play as they only average 101.1 possessions per game while the Washington Wizards lead the league with 106.5 possessions. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the only play above $10k tonight and being able to pair Kyle Kuzma with Rudy Gobert is a great duo to start your lineups with.

NBA DFS – Top Value Targets

Richaun Holmes $3,700 – 22.18 DK points – 5.99 Value Rating

Richaun Holmes leads the way when it comes to value rating tonight in the NBA Player Projections sheet. He’s projected for 22.18 points and a value rating of 5.99. Alongside Kyle Kuzma, Holmes should see some run time versus a Charlotte Hornets team that can give up points and boards to centers. The Hornets currently allow 24.8 points and 16.1 rebounds overall to the center position. This makes Holmes a solid value play.

Dean Wade $3,800 – 21.73 DK Points – 5.72 Value Rating

Dean Wade should see the starting nod for the Cleveland Cavaliers once again as the injury bug is hitting the team hard. While Wade did have a huge showing versus Boston on Tuesday with 23 points and eight rebounds, he came down to reality versus Atlanta with nine points and four boards. Now, the Cavaliers get to face the Minnesota Timberwolves as they deal without Karl-Anthony Towns. He’ll go above value if he reaches the 21.73 DK points and exceeds it which makes him a good target for salary-relief if you’re paying up for SGA.

NBA DFS – Game To Target

Charlotte Hornets (+114) versus Washington Wizards (-135) – Total 225.5 Points
Odds and Total Points are taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.

This is one of the lower totals of the slate but there is a lot that we can go after tonight. With the fast-paced Washington Wizards, Kyle Kuzma comes in huge at just $7.8k. Tyus Jones also marks as a good value play, sitting at 5.09 and projects for 31.54 points. While Corey Kisperts doesn’t project as well, he should pay off his price tag. Even Deni Avdija projects for 36.86 DK Points tonight. The Washington Wizards as a two-man or three-man stack could pay off well.

For the Charlotte Hornets, this game is a boost spot due to their slow pace and having to match the Wizards. Miles Bridges holds a 5.20 value rating while sitting at 43.66 DK points in the projections. He does come in higher-priced than Kyle Kuzma, but he is worth a play if entering multiple lineups. Tre Mann continues to pl;ay consistent basketball and sits at 5.38 value rating with a price tag of $5.8k. Another solid two-man stack here with the Charlotte Hornets.

NBA DFS – Best Bets

Kyle Kuzma over 22.5 Points -120 (BetMGM)

We have discussed Kyle Kuzma a lot already in this article and we’ll make this short and sweet. He has averaged 26 points versus Charlotte in three games already this season. Kuzma has only missed the 22.5 total once in his last five games and that was versus the Los Angeles Lakers where he had a slow start. Overall, he should continute his consistent scoring play and log another good outing versus Charlotte.

Buddy Hield over 3.5 Assists -125 (DK Sportsbook)

Buddy Hield has been finding some success in the passing lane as of lately and has another good opportunity tonight versus the New Orleans Pelicans. They currently allow shooting guards to average 5.6 assists per. For Hield, he is averaging 4.2 assists per game in his last five. He has only missed the total once those five games.

1 month ago 0 comment

NBA Daily Fantasy Sports Sports Betting Basketball

NBA DFS Core Plays And Best Bets Mar. 6

Shaun Evans 1 month ago

written by Shaun Evans

Back-to-back days that we get an eight-game NBA DFS slate and I’m here to cover all of your needs. While the DFS plays on Tuesday weren’t the best, the bets went one for two. It’s time to bounce back and get back on track. We’ll see who the best plays are and which game to target while breaking down the top two bets to play.

NBA DFS – Core Plays

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander $10,700 – 56.08 DK Points – 5.24 Value Rating

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander comes into tonight’s slate as the third-highest projected player. The Oklahoma City Thunder get to face the Portland Trailblazers in what could be a one-sided matchup. The Thunder play at a fast pace, averaging 104 possessions per game while Portland sits at 102.4. The concern may be that this turns into a blowout game but that hasn’t stopped Gilgeous-Alexander from having success in fewer minutes of play. In three games this season, SGA has averaged 30.7 points, six assists, and 4.7 rebounds while averaging 26.2 minutes versus Portland. He held a 59.6% field-goal percentage versus them while averaging two steals per game.

Luka Samanic $3,500 – 22.21 DK Points – 6.35 Value Rating

Luka Samanic will be a name to watch up until lock as he is currently projected to be in the starting lineup for the Utah Jazz. Samanic does hold the highest value rating on the projections, sitting at 6.35. If he does start, he’ll help open up a lot of salary room. He did log 23 minutes versus Washington on Monday and he recorded five points, two rebounds, and two assists while adding on two blocks and one steal on the defensive end. Give Luka Samanic nearly 25 minutes once again and he’ll be able to give us the value we need.

De’Aaron Fox- $8,600 – 46.94 DK points – 5.46 Value Rating

De’Aaron Fox staying in the core three will strictly ride on the value that opens up throughout the day. If we get more value and salary savings from guys in the Luka Samanic range, Fox and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander combo will be my favorite to run. The Sacramento Kings versus Los Angeles Lakers game is the game with the highest total on the slate and for good reason. De’Aaron Fox will see a matchup that benefits him as the Lakers allow opposing point guards to average 25.8 points, 8.5 assists, and 6.2 rebounds per game. In the two meetings this season already. Fox averaged 32.5 points with 6.5 assists and 4.5 rebounds per game while averaging 2.5 steals. He’ll be able to fill up the stat sheet tonight once again.

NBA DFS – Top Value Targets

Corey Kispert $4,500 – 24.78 DK points – 5.51 Value Rating

Corey Kispert is coming in with two bad performances back-to-back but has been playing well as of late. In his last five games, Kispert has averaged 14.8 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 2.4 assists. He has seen Orlando three times already this season but still was able to put up points versus them. In those three games, he averaged 14.3 points, two rebounds, and two assists while averaging nearly 21 minutes.

Cameron Payne $4,100 – 19.45 DK Points – 4.74 Value Rating

Cameron Payne should be in line for another start today as Tyrese Maxey is dealing with a mild concussion. With his start last night, Payne recorded 15 points, three rebounds, and one assist while getting one steal. Now, the Philadelphia 76ers will face off versus the Memphis Grizzlies. They currently allow guards to average 21.4 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 6.1 assists per game. Overall, the 76ers will provide some value plays alongside their opponents, the Memphis Grizzlies.

NBA DFS – Game To Target

Sacramento Kings (+114) versus Los Angeles Lakers (-135) – Total 238.5 Points
Odds and Total Points are taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.

The game to target is going to be a good one with the Sacramento Kings facing off against the Los Angeles Lakers once again. With the highest point total on the slate, the Kings and Lakers play at a fast-paced. The Kings currently average 103.7 possessions per game while the Lakers average 104.7. A slight boost for Kings players. While Domantas Sabonis is the highest-priced player in this matchup at $10,600, the rest of the Kings players add some good value. Keegan Murray sits at $5.8k and Harrison Barnes sits at $4.1k.

For the Los Angeles Lakers, Anthony Davis is priced over $10k with a $10.3k price tag, and his performances versus Sacramento this season haven’t been the best. Now, LeBron James sits under $10k with a $9.8k price tag and is averaging a triple-double versus Sacramento this season. He is averaging 27.5 points, 12.5 rebounds, and 10 assists through two games. He makes for a great pivot from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. D’Angelo Russell would be the other Lakers starter to consider at $7k but he pushes that line. James makes for the best pay-up spot, alongside De’Aaron Fox when targeting this matchup.

NBA DFS – Best Bets

Jalen Suggs over 9.5 Points -115 (bet365)

Jalen Suggs comes into tonight’s matchup with a projection of 13.61 points and an edge of 43.21% to hit the over. He gets a boost in pace as the Washington Wizards lead the league in possessions per game with 106.6. Suggs should have more opportunities created for him to score. In three meetings this season versus Washington, he has averaged 16 points per game.

Santi Aldama over 6.5 Rebounds +106 (FD Sportsbook)

With the Philadelphia 76erx being depleted due to injuries, Santi Aldama has a very strong case to hit the over. While his projection for rebounds is close to the 6.5 total, he has improved on the boards. He’s averaging 6.2 rebounds in his last five games and had back-to-back games with eight rebounds. He has also logged 32 or more minutes in three of those last five games.

1 month ago 0 comment

NBA Daily Fantasy Sports Sports Betting Basketball

NBA DFS Core Plays And Best Bets Mar. 5

Shaun Evans 2 months ago

written by Shaun Evans

We get a massive eight-game NBA DFS slate for Tuesday night and a lot to comb through. I’ll be breaking down my core plays and favorite value plays. See which game to target and what my favorite bets are for the night. Let us dive in and get to the action.

NBA DFS – Core Plays

Caris LeVert $5,500 – 31.56 DK Points – 5.74 Value Rating

The Cleveland Cavaliers are coming into Tuesday’s game banged up. Caris LeVert should benefit greatly from that and holds a 5.74 value rating, tying him for the second-highest value play. LeVert recorded 14 points, 15 assists, and seven rebounds versus Chicago on Wednesday. This season, without Donovan Mitchell, Caris Levert holds a usage rate of 27.9% while averaging 15.8 points, 4.5 assists, and 2.5 rebounds in games without him.

Tobias Harris $7,200 – 35.50 DK Points – 4.93 Value Rating

The Philadelphia 76ers will be without Tyrese Maxey tonight, boosting up Tobias Harris. While the Brooklyn Nets do challenge power forwards, Harris will have more opportunities tonight to exceed his $7,200 price tag. Harris has averaged 34 minutes in his past five games while recording 19 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 1.8 assists per game. He has had two good scoring performances in his last two games, recording 31 points with 12 rebounds versus Charlotte and then 28 points and five rebounds versus Dallas.

Victor Wembanyama $10,700 – 54.63 DK points – 5.11 Value Rating

Victor Wembanyama gets a huge price jump tonight but for very good reason. He faces a Houston Rocket team that he has already put up monstrous double-doubles again. While he is a walking double-double, he and Luka Doncic make the case to always pay up for them. San Antonio does play at the fourth-highest pace with 105 possessions per game and should force Houston to play quicker. With that, mixed with Wembanyama’s two-game sample versus Houston, the $10,700 price tag is still reasonable to play.

NBA DFS – Top Value Targets

Paul Reed $5,100 – 29.99 DK points – 5.88 Value Rating

Mo Bamba has been getting the starting nod at center for the Philadelphia 76ers but Paul Reed has been making the most of his opportunity. Reed has recorded 29 DK points in back-to-back games now and still gets a price drop. He projects as the top value play with a rating of 5.88 and a projection of 29.99 DK points tonight. Also, he has flirted with the double-double bonus in those two games. While Brooklyn is good at stopping centers from scoring, they are still allowing 14.6 rebounds per game.

Sam Merrill $4,100 – 22.20 DK Points – 5.41 Value Rating

Sam Merrill is coming in at a great price point of $4,100 while the Cleveland Cavaliers are battling some injury news. Donovan Mitchell does remain out for three more games but even Darius Garland and Isaac Okoro have been hit with the questionable tag. Merrill could have a huge opportunity tonight. He has recorded 12 and 21 points in his past two games while playing 25 minutes or more in both. Give him a short-handed team and we may see the value exceed expectations.

NBA DFS – Game To Target

Indiana Pacers (+160) versus Dallas Maverick (-192) – Total 246 Points
Odds and Total Points are taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.

This is going to be a fast-paced game between two very good teams. We have one huge questionable tag and that is Luka Doncic. He hurt his ankle in Dallas’s previous game and if he is out, Kyrie Irving gets a major boost. We won’t get that news until closer to lock. While Dallas won’t have the greatest value in it, Josh Green stands out at $4,200. While his games haven’t been outstanding, he has been playing consistent basketball and would get a huge boost. However, Doncic will most likely play and bet the top option once again.

On the opposite side, the Indiana Pacers play fast basketball and play it well. Now, Tyrese Haliburton has not been playing to where he should be but is only $9,000 tonight. Pascal Siakam is at $7,700 and has played consistent basketball and we know what exactly we’ll get with him. He has also found success versus Dallas, averaging 21.5 points, 10.5 rebounds, and 3.5 assists in two games. T.J. McConnell is at $5,000 today due to the high total overall but is also coming off of a strong showing where he recorded 41.5 fantasy points. We get better value on the Indiana side and the game calls for high scoring.

NBA DFS – Best Bets

Ausar Thompson over 6.5 Rebounds +115 (bet365)

Ausar Thompson has a solid chance tonight to rack up some rebounds and with a total of 6.5 as his line, our tool has him projected at basically nine rebounds and a 49.83% edge. He has recorded six, seven, and eight rebounds in his past three games. For Miami, they are allowing 7.4 rebounds to opposing forwards per game.

Herbert Jones over 12.5 Points + Assists -120 (Bet365)

Herbert Jones has been scoring better as of late and has hit the 12.5 total just off points alone in four of his last five games. While he didn’t have the best outing in the first meeting versus Toronto, they do tend to allow forwards to score. They currently allow them to average 24.8 points and 4.3 assists per game. In the player prop tool, Jones projects for 16.37 points and assists, sitting at a 31% edge.

2 months ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports NBA Sports Betting Basketball

NBA DFS Core Plays And Best Bets Mar. 3

Shaun Evans 2 months ago

written by Shaun Evans

A fresh new week for us to kick off and we have a six-game NBA DFS slate on DraftKings. I’ll be breaking down my core plays for the slate alongside some value plays that shoot help boost your lineup. On top of that, I’ll give my game to target overall plus two of my favorite bets for the day.

NBA DFS – Core Plays

Shai Gilgeous-Alexandar $10,700 – 55.3 DK Points – 5.17 Value Rating

Shai Gilgeous-Alexandar has been on a massive tear and has recorded 30 or more points in eight straight games. Now, he faces the Los Angeles Lakers who are allowing opposing guards to average 23.8 points per game. They also allow 7.1 rebounds and six assists per game. This will also be a fast-paced game as both teams average 104 possessions per game. Gilgeous-Alexander has already found success versus the Lakers this year as he has faced them three times. In those three games, he has averaged 30.3 points, 6.7 assists, and four rebounds.

Kyle Kuzma $7,400 – 43.32 DK Points – 5.85 Value Rating

Kyle Kuzma has a huge value rating tonight while sitting at just $7,400. Kuzma is holding a usage rating of 31% this season while averaging 22.2 points, 6.6 rebounds, and four assists per game. He has been flirting with multiple double-doubles in his last five games as he has recorded two already. He should be able to record another one tonight as he gets to face the Utah Jazz. They currently allow opposing power forwards to average 27.2 points, 9.8 rebounds, and 4.8 assists per game.

Andre Drummond $5,200 – 32.72 DK points – 6.29 Value Rating

The Sacramento Kings may not be the worst out of all of the teams when it comes to guarding centers. However, Andre Drummond has been dominating as of late and that’s why he’s the top-value player on the slate. In his last three games, Drummond has recorded a total of 47 rebounds. He recorded 20 points with 11 rebounds versus Detroit which he followed that game up with 17 points and 26 rebounds versus Cleveland. To round it out, he recorded 9 points and 10 rebounds versus Milwaukee. The Kings will have to find a way to slow him down on the boards but that double-double bonus upside at $5,200 is one to not pass up on.

NBA DFS – Top Value Targets

Jabari Walker $4,700 – 26.39 DK points – 5.61 Value Rating

Jabari Walker pops up as a good pay-down big man tonight. His last two games have been impressive. He recorded 19 points and 10 rebounds Friday night versus Memphis and then recorded 18 points and 12 rebounds versus them again on Saturday. Minnesota has proven to be a challenge at times but not for Walker. In three games this season, he has averaged 9.7 points, eight rebounds, and 1.3 assists.

Spencer Dinwiddie $4,000 – 20.59 DK Points – 5.35 Value Rating

There aren’t too many low-cost plays as of now for tonight’s slate but that could change. Spencer Dinwiddie has a straight-forward matchup history versus Oklahoma City this season which makes me feel okay playing him at $4,000. I typically avoid him. In two games this season, Dinwiddie has averaged 18 points, 4.5 assists, and three rebounds per game versus Oklahoma City while averaging nearly 35 minutes. He may not top 30 minutes tonight, but he has found success versus the Thunder which makes me willing to play him.

NBA DFS – Game To Target

Oklahoma City Thunder (-112) versus Los Angeles Lakers (-108) – Total 238.5 Points
Odds and Total Points are taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.

We’re going to split the game to target into two games. The pay-up spots in tonight’s matchup that features the Thunder and Lakers are ones to not pass up. The core piece is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander but we still have Anthony Davis ($10.1k) and LeBron James ($9.7k) which are also great plays. There is the obvious questionable tags for both, Davis and LeBron, which also would boost either one. If LeBron James does sit, Davis shoots up as a good spot if you pivot from SGA or vice versus for James. Chet Holmgren may be one player to avoid overall but Josh Giddey ($5.3k) is a great pairing partner.

The second game to look at for some value is going to be the Washington Wizards versus the Utah Jazz. This game holds the highest total of the night with 241 points. Kyle Kuzma is a great play but Utah news has already started to roll in. That could provide some good low-cost plays to be rolled into the lineup. John Collins ($6.5k) has a great matchup and holds a 6.13 value rating with a projection of 39.87 DK Points. Overall, the cheaper plays could be found in this matchup.

NBA DFS – Best Bets

Alex Caruso over 10.5 Points + Assists -115 (bet365)

Alex Caruso comes in as the third-highest edge play in the NBA Player Prop Model, sitting at 42%. He has hit the over in four of his last five games. While it has been just one game this season meeting the Sacramento Kings, Caruso did record seven points and six assists.

Deni Avdija over 3.5 Assists -105 (DK Sportsbook)

Deni Avdija comes in averaging 3.4 assists per game while notching back-to-back games with five assists. Avdija gets a Utah Jazz team that is allowing forwards to average 4.8 assists per game this season. With that being said, he did record five assists in their first meeting this season and should be able to replicate it as this is the highest-total game on tonight’s plate.

Get access to our NBA DFS Player Prop Model here and find the best edge in the industry! An example from yesterday is below. Click the image for today’s updated model

2 months ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports NBA

NBA Daily Double for Nov. 6

Dave Gloeckner 6 months ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

Win Daily Sports models have been smoking hot and the Daily Double has followed suit. Dave Gloeckner is back at it again on Monday 11-6-23 to give you his favorite props and DFS plays from our projections tools and models.

6 months ago 0 comment

NBA

Top 20 NBA Fantasy Stats to Research for Fantasy Basketball Success

Jason Mezrahi 1 year ago

written by Jason Mezrahi

Fantasy basketball has become a popular way for fans to stay engaged with the NBA season. As with any fantasy sport, it’s important to have a good understanding of the stats that matter most. Here are the top 20 NBA fantasy stats to research and what their definitions are. All of these statistics are built in to our daily NBA Projection models that are used to build successful lineups for DraftKings and FanDuel.

Points (PTS): This is the most basic stat in basketball, and it’s simply the number of points a player scores in a game.
Rebounds (REB): This stat measures the number of times a player grabs a rebound, which is when a missed shot bounces off the rim or backboard and a player catches it.
Assists (AST): An assist is recorded when a player passes the ball to a teammate who scores immediately after receiving the pass.
Steals (STL): When a player takes the ball away from an opposing player, it’s considered a steal.
Blocks (BLK): This stat is recorded when a player jumps and blocks an opposing player’s shot attempt.
Turnovers (TO): When a player loses possession of the ball due to a bad pass, mishandling it, or committing an offensive foul, it’s considered a turnover.
Field Goal Percentage (FG%): This measures the percentage of shots a player makes out of their total field goal attempts.
Free Throw Percentage (FT%): This stat measures the percentage of free throws a player makes out of their total free throw attempts.
Three-Point Field Goal Percentage (3PT%): This stat measures the percentage of three-point shots a player makes out of their total three-point attempts.
Minutes per Game (MPG): This measures the average number of minutes a player plays per game.
Double-Doubles (DD): A double-double is recorded when a player accumulates double-digit totals in two of the following categories: points, rebounds, assists, steals, or blocks.
Triple-Doubles (TD): A triple-double is recorded when a player accumulates double-digit totals in three of the categories listed above.
Usage Rate (USG%): This stat measures the percentage of team plays a player uses while they’re on the court.
Player Efficiency Rating (PER): This is a comprehensive stat that measures a player’s overall effectiveness on the court.
True Shooting Percentage (TS%): This stat measures the efficiency of a player’s shooting by taking into account the number of free throws, two-point field goals, and three-point field goals they make.
Offensive Rating (ORtg): This measures a team’s offensive efficiency with a specific player on the court.
Defensive Rating (DRtg): This measures a team’s defensive efficiency with a specific player on the court.
Net Rating (NetRtg): This measures the point differential per 100 possessions a player contributes to their team.
Win Shares (WS): This stat measures the number of wins a player contributes to their team.
Box Plus/Minus (BPM): This is a comprehensive stat that measures a player’s overall impact on the court, taking into account their offensive and defensive contributions.

In conclusion, understanding these 20 stats is crucial for anyone who wants to excel at fantasy basketball. While some of these stats are more basic than others, all of them contribute to a player’s overall value. By researching these stats and using them to inform your draft picks and in-season roster moves, you’ll be well on your way to fantasy basketball success.

1 year ago 0 comment

NBA

NBA Ghost’s Gems for Western Conference Round 1

DFSGhost 1 year ago

written by DFSGhost

The NBA Playoffs are officially under way! Yes, the Play-In tournament got us kicked off a few days ago. But the conventional one through eight matchups began last night. The Western Conference matchups are much more even than those in the Eastern Conference. Moreover, many NBA Championship contenders are featured in this one.

With the NBA Play-In tournament now over, here is the updated bracket for the Western Conference:

The fantasy sports landscape shifts drastically throughout the NBA Playoffs. Rotations are much more condensed, while teams are quick to shorten their bench. As previously mentioned, rotation notes, player breakdowns, analytical advantages, and key x-factors are all discussed. The x-factor will not be the best player on the team, but rather, someone that will provide an edge in both fantasy sports and on the court in real time.

Be sure to use our proprietary NBA projections and cheat sheet to build your lineups as the news rolls in. Moreover, join the conversation in the Win Daily Discord to get the insight you need from both subscribers and staff.

Denver Nuggets (1) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (8)

Denver Nuggets (-500 to win series)

Introduction

After an opening round loss to the eventual NBA Champions last season, the Nuggets stormed out of the gate this year and never looked back. Nikola Jokic averaged a near triple-double while leading his team to the #1 seed in a competitive Western Conference. One can only hope the injury woes of Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. are behind them for what should be a deep playoff run.

Matchup

Despite the acquisition of Rudy Gobert, Minnesota still ranked 17th in points allowed in the paint per game and a disastrous 27th in rebounding. Thus, the matchup bodes well for MVP candidate, Nikola Jokic. Elsewhere, Jamal Murray will look to get the best of veteran Mike Conley on the perimeter, while the best statistical matchup is for Michael Porter Jr., who will see a ton of Anthony Edwards.

Rotation

The back-to-back NBA MVP will be a staple point in this offensive flow. Moreover, Jamal Murray looks healthy and is poised for a big role on what hopes to be a lengthy playoff run. Michael Porter Jr. and Aaron Gordon flank the wings, while Kentavious Caldwell-Pope plays the role of spot-up shooter from behind the arc. Elsewhere, Bruce Brown is a versatile player in this rotation, while Christian Braun, Zeke Nnaji, and veterans Reggie Jackson and Jeff Green round out the rotation.

X-Factor

Aside from the duo of Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon is the x-factor to this series for Denver. A matchup looms against Karl-Anthony Towns, and other wings in smaller Minnesota lineups, such as Kyle Anderson and Taurean Prince. However, Gordon will have to get his offensive game going early and often. Jokic will surely be double-teamed on nearly every possession, and there is only so many shots for Jamal Murray to take. Gordon’s versatility outweighs the inconsistency of Michael Porter Jr., making the former of more impact than the latter.

Minnesota Timberwolves (+375 to win series)

Introduction

The Minnesota overhaul was a disaster. Rudy Gobert was acquired in the offseason for far too many assets, and it simply has not worked out. This offense is stagnant, relying on Anthony Edwards in isolation far too often. Meanwhile, the defensive unit has been mediocre at best. Despite making it through Oklahoma City in the Play-In, there is little to like about this roster heading into the opening round.

Matchup

Despite making it through the Play-In tournament, things don’t get any easier for Minnesota. The Nuggets have a good roster when everyone is healthy, and this team looks to be in its best form after the regular season they had. However, there is an opportunity to Minnesota to take advantage on the perimeter. The issue is trusting the likes of Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns regularly, let alone the rest of this rotation.

Rotation

Expect to see as much Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns as you ever have in these NBA Playoffs. Moreover, Rudy Gobert will anchor the paint in a matchup versus Nikola Jokic and Mike Conley will run point. Kyle Anderson and Taurean Prince will play impactful minutes, whether in the starting lineup or off the bench. Nickeil Alexander-Walker earned a starting spot in the final game of the Play-In, while Jordan McLaughlin will check in off the bench, only if necessary.

X-Factor

Both Rudy Gobert and Mike Conley will be of extreme importance to Minnesota in this series. However, the latter gets the nod as the x-factor with his role on both ends of the floor. Not only will Conley have to keep Jamal Murray at bay, but he will need to attack on the other side. Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards will lead the team in usage rate, but Conley needs to be efficient in his time on the court if the Timberwolves stand a chance.

Memphis Grizzlies (2) vs. Los Angeles Lakers (7)

Memphis Grizzlies (-140 to win series)

Introduction

After a disappointing exit to the eventual NBA Champions last season, Memphis is back on the big stage. It does not come without concern though, as Steven Adams missing the postseason is a huge hole to fill. However, Jaren Jackson Jr. is a Defensive Player of the Year finalist and needs to prove he can handle a matchup against Anthony Davis in this series. Ja Morant leads the charge for a team that will certainly face adversity from the get-go.

Matchup

A matchup versus the Lakers gives Ja Morant the best chance to take over a series. While Austin Reaves is a quality defender, the Lakers finished the season 29th in the NBA versus primary ball handlers and 28th versus crafty finishers at the position. However, the true mismatch lies in the paint. Memphis takes a huge hit on the glass and in interior defense with Steven Adams ruled out. Thus, hoping that Jaren Jackson Jr. is not only up to the task, but that he’s able to stay out of foul trouble versus Anthony Davis is more than enough cause for concern.

Rotation

Ja Morant and Desmond Bane will log a ton of minutes in the backcourt. Flanked by Dillon Brooks and Jaren Jackson Jr., the Grizzlies have a strong core. However, in the absences of both Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke, Jackson Jr. will shift to the ‘5’ at times. Not only will he be forced to guard Anthony Davis, but the former needs to stay out of foul trouble; something he has not proven in his young career. Moreover, Tyus Jones will play a crucial role off the bench, while Luke Kennard and John Konchar pick up a few minutes on the wing. Xavier Tillman will need to step up in the absence of Adams and Clarke, with Santi Aldama being the fallback option.

X-Factor

Just as Ja Morant comes into this series with something to prove, Desmond Bane cannot go unnoticeable for multiple games. There is no doubt that the Lakers will key in on Morant. Thus, Bane needs to be able to not only provide offense, but create his own shots and create for others when he handles the rock. Being able to get open off the ball will be crucial, as Morant will be forced to find his teammates more often than he is used to in this series.

Los Angeles Lakers (+120 to win series)

Introduction

After making it through the Play-In tournament after a single game, the Lakers now turn their attention to the Grizzlies. Outside of Los Angeles fans, most have Memphis winning this series with ease. However, there is a clear path to the Lakers winning this one. By utilizing Anthony Davis as much as possible, the Lakers can wreck havoc for Memphis on the inside. Moreover, LeBron James looks for a fifth NBA Championship, while the front office acquired multiple contributors to a potential run.

Matchup

The key to this matchup will be in the paint. Yes, Memphis has a quality roster along the perimeter, both in their starting unit and off the bench. However, with Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke both nursing injuries, Anthony Davis needs to dominate on the interior and the glass, while LeBron James needs to attack the rim every chance he gets.

Rotation

This Lakers rotation is surprisingly deep thanks to an overhaul at the trade deadline. Alongside LeBron James and Anthony Davis, D’Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves will play prominent minutes. Moreover, Jarred Vanderbilt and his defensive ability will earn him significant run. Rounding out the rotation are Dennis Schroder, Rui Hachimura, Malik Beasley, and Tory Brown Jr.

X-Factor

LeBron James and Anthony Davis look to shock the NBA community with a series win over Memphis. However, they will not be able to do it without Austin Reaves containing Ja Morant for multiple games. The breakout Laker will be tasked with guarding Memphis’ primary ball handler and will need to force him into bad shots. Moreover, Reaves’ offensive ability through attacking the likes of Tyus Jones, Desmond Bane, and Dillon Brooks on the other side of the ball makes him the key to a series win.

Sacramento Kings (3) vs. Golden State Warriors (6)

Sacramento Kings (+225 to win series)

Introduction

Light the Beam! Sacramento will be making their first NBA Playoffs appearances since 2005-2006. After trading Tyrese Haliburton for Domantas Sabonis, many had the Kings listed for a top pick in the upcoming draft lottery. However, this group had other plans. Behind career years from De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis, this will be the most fun series of the entire opening round.

Matchup

The Warriors put up a lot of points, but they give up a ton as well. This is right up Sacramento’s alley, as they have done that all season long. However, the key to this series will be the first two games. Golden State struggled mightily on the road, and there may not be a louder building than Sacramento in the entire Playoffs. Look for De’Aaron Fox to score and create on every possession, as the Warriors ranked 24th to primary ball handlers and 27th to crafty finishers at the guard position.

Rotation

The core of De’Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis, and Harrison Barnes will see the most minutes. However, after that, things could get interesting. Yes, Kevin Huerter and Keegan Murray will continue to start for the majority, if not every game this series. However, with the Warriors potentially going back to their roots of a smaller closeout lineup, look for Malik Monk to see a ton of run in this one. Moreover, Davion Mitchell gives Sacramento a quality on-ball defender, while Trey Lyles will be the first big man off the bench.

X-Factor

While this may be breaking the rules of the section, De’Aaron Fox is simply too important not to highlight. Yes, Domantas Sabonis was outstanding this season and led the NBA in both rebounds per game and total rebounds. However, it is Fox that will have to keep pace with Steph Curry on the other side. Following a career year where he was still snubbed from the All-Star game, Fox is looking to make waves in his first career playoff appearance and has the biggest stage of any guard in the opening round.

Golden State Warriors (-275 to win series)

Introduction

In an eventful season, the core of the dynasty remains. This was certainly a tighter race in the Western Conference than anticipated, and the Warriors were a mere two losses from being in the Play-In. Nonetheless, this is a team ready to make waves and has a clear path to yet another NBA Finals.

Matchup

While Sacramento had a career year in all facets of the season, their offense was simply outstanding. Not only did they finish first in offensive rating, but they posted a league-best 120.7 points per game. However, with an elite offense came a poor defense. The Kings finished 26th in defensive rating and struggled mightily on the wings and versus primary ball handlers. Domantas Sabonis is a beast in the paint and on the glass, but this is a pristine matchup for Curry and company.

Rotation

The Splash Bros will log a ton of minutes in this backcourt. However, with Andrew Wiggins returning in time for the NBA Playoffs since missing two months of action, others will need to step up. Donte DiVincenzo will get minutes on the wing, and Jordan Poole will get a ton of run off the bench as well when Thompson shifts to the wing. Moreover, Draymond Green and Kevon Looney will be tasked with a matchup versus Domantas Sabonis, while Gary Payton II and Jonathan Kuminga round out the rotation in sparing minutes.

X-Factor

Poised for another run at a Championship, the Warriors may have the toughest road than they ever have. The true x-factor in this series will be Jordan Poole. After winning Sixth Man of the Year last season, Poole averaged two more points per game this year while appearing in all 82 games for the Warriors. However, in a series versus the Kings, Poole will have to be able to be an effective secondary scorer if Golden State wants to keep pace. Steph Curry and Klay Thompson will lead the charge, but if Poole cannot outduel Malik Monk on the other side, it will be a quick out for the reigning NBA Champions.

Phoenix Suns (4) vs. Los Angeles Clippers (5)

Phoenix Suns (-500 to win series)

Introduction

Expectations need to be held in check for this Suns roster. Yes, they acquired Kevin Durant. However, not only has their starting unit played few minutes together, but their bench is not up to standards of others. Luckily, it is not a bench that wins the NBA Playoffs, but the starting unit. The core of Chris Paul, Devin Booker, Kevin Durant, and Deandre Ayton is one of, if not the best of remaining teams. However, this roster is a single injury or bad matchup away from falling short of an NBA Championship.

Matchup

Despite having two of the best defenders of this generation on the same roster, Los Angeles has not shown the ability to win tight games for a full series. Largely due to the absence of one, if not both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, the Clippers finished 17th in defensive rating this season. Moreover, they continued to struggle versus primary ball handlers, finishing 28th in the NBA. While Kawhi Leonard is capable of shutting down Kevin Durant, there is simply too much firepower on this Suns roster in the absence of Paul George.

Rotation

The core of Paul, Booker, Durant, and Ayton will soak up the majority of minutes for Phoenix. Moreover, Josh Okogie will take over the defensive responsibility left by Mikal Bridges in his departure to Brooklyn. The bench will be shallow, but look for Landry Shamet, Torrey Craig, and Cameron Payne (when healthy) to be first off the bench. Lastly, Terrence Ross and TJ Warren are options on the wing, while one of Bismack Biyombo or Jock Landale can sub in for Deandre Ayton in a limited capacity.

X-Factor

This offense is littered with elite options. Kevin Durant joins an established core of Devin Booker, Chris Paul, and Deandre Ayton. However, it is the savvy veteran running point that will need to be an x-factor in this series. Firstly, the matchup is as good as it gets. For years, the Clippers have struggled to guard primary ball handlers. Not only is CP3 one of the best to do it during his career, but of all time. Secondly, this offense had little time to familiarize itself before getting to the biggest stage of an NBA season. Thus, Paul can provide both stability and production with the ball in his hands by finding open teammates and limiting isolation possessions down the stretch.

Los Angeles Clippers (+375 to win series)

Introduction

In what was deemed a contender for years to come since Kawhi Leonard and Paul George joined forces, this roster has failed to live up to expectations. The main reason for their downfall has been injuries. After missing the entire season last year, Kawhi appeared in a mere 52 games for Los Angeles. Moreover, he has not played more than 60 games since 2016-2017. Paul George has been no better, appearing in 56 or less games in every year since he arrived to Los Angeles. This team has a strong foundation, but concerns loom.

Matchup

Phoenix is not the same team as they were for the majority of the regular season. Not only are both Devin Booker and Chris Paul healthy, but the acquisition of Kevin Durant makes this a roster capable of winning an NBA Championship. However, Kawhi Leonard has been one of the best playoff performers of this generation. Moreover, the Suns are vulnerable in the paint with Deandre Ayton and a combination of Bismack Biyombo and Jock Landale off the bench. Lastly, the Clippers need to attack individual matchups versus Booker, Craig, and bench players to spark offensive opportunities.

Rotation

Coach Ty Lue is notorious for rotation changes. Since leaving Cleveland, where he won an NBA Championship with LeBron James in 2016, Lue has become a much better game manager. Kawhi Leonard will have to log as many minutes as his body can handle in the absence of Paul George. However, the surrounding cast will have to step up. Lue has veteran options in Nic Batum, Marcus Morris Sr., and Robert Covington. Both Mason Plumlee and Ivica Zubac will get to man the paint. Meanwhile, Norman Powell and Terance Mann will see increased roles with George out for the series. However, both Eric Gordon and Bones Hyland give Lue more options at the ‘2’. Lastly, Russell Westbrook will have to be his best if Los Angeles stands a chance at winning a game, let alone the series.

X-Factor

In the absence of Paul George, no one is as important to the Clippers as Kawhi Leonard. However, others will need to step up as well. Thus, Norman Powell is the x-factor in this series. While he has an abysmal matchup, he can score in bunches. Lining up against Kevin Durant is no joke, but Powell has the ability to play well off-ball to get open in a matchup versus Devin Booker. Moreover, Powell averaged 17 points per game off the bench this season. In a starting role, he will have to alleviate some of the pressure off Kawhi.

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

1 year ago 0 comment

NBA

NBA Ghost’s Gems for Eastern Conference Round 1

DFSGhost 1 year ago

written by DFSGhost

The NBA Playoffs are officially under way! Yes, the Play-In tournament got us kicked off a few days ago. But the conventional one through eight matchups begin tonight. The Eastern Conference is much more lopsided than the Western Conference, but there will be many good battles every night.

With the NBA Play-In tournament now over, here is the updated bracket for the Eastern Conference:

The fantasy sports landscape shifts drastically throughout the NBA Playoffs. Rotations are much more condensed, while teams are quick to shorten their bench. As previously mentioned, rotation notes, player breakdowns, analytical advantages, and key x-factors are all discussed below. The x-factor will not be the best player on the team, but rather, someone that will provide an edge in both fantasy sports and on the court in real time.

Milwaukee Bucks (1) vs. Miami Heat (8)

Milwaukee Bucks (-1200 to win series)

Introduction

After being dethroned as Conference Champions and NBA Champions last season, the Bucks bounced back with their most successful regular season since 2018-2019. Moreover, Giannis Antetokounmpo is an MVP candidate, following a career-high 31.1 points per game. This roster is stout on both ends of the court, with their only drawback being clutch shooting down the stretch via shot creation.

Matchup

From a defensive standpoint, Miami has the ability to match up with nearly every NBA roster. However, the Bucks are a different beast. Giannis Antetokounmpo is one of the most unguardable players the league has to offer. Moreover, Brook Lopez has been terrific both in the paint and from behind the arc. Factor in Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton, two excellent two-way players, and there is simply too much to contain on a nightly basis. Each player has a respectable defender in front of them, but Miami is most vulnerable on the wing.

Rotation

After winning an NBA Championship only two season ago, Milwaukee is poised for another deep playoff run. Led by Giannis Antetokounmpo, this roster also features quality two-way players in Jrue Holiday and Brook Lopez. Despite missing 49 games this season, Khris Middleton is set to contribute early and often, while Pat Connaughton and Grayson Allen will flank the wings at times. Moreover, Bobby Portis Jr. will be the first big man off the bench, while Jae Crowder and Joe Ingles give Milwaukee veteran options off the bench, if necessary. Jevon Carter may spell Jrue Holiday at times, but don’t count on big minutes at rotations get tighter.

X-Factor

Despite their shortcomings on offense, the Heat’s defensive unit is no joke. Thus, the biggest x-factor in this series will be Brook Lopez. After finishing second in the NBA in blocks per game, Lopez received a nomination for Defensive Player of the Year. Moreover, he had his best shooting season since 2018-2019. In a matchup versus Bam Adebayo, it will be up to Lopez to control the paint on both ends of the court, with the obvious help of Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Miami Heat (+750 to win series)

Introduction

It took a game longer than expected, but Miami made the NBA Playoffs. However, this team looks to be one of, if not the worst team remaining. Shockingly enough, they have some quality players where they should not be in this situation, but here they are. Their offense struggled mightily all season long and continued to do so in the Play-In, making their outlook far from optimistic.

Matchup

This is far from a good matchup for the Heat. Milwaukee’s interior defense is one of, if not the best in the NBA. Both Giannis Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez await in the paint, while Jrue Holiday puts the clamps on the perimeter. Moreover, Miami plays awfully slow and were the lowest scoring team of the year, creating a hard enough situation thanks to their own shortcomings on offense.

Rotation

The Heat will only go as far as Butler, Adebayo, and Herro take them. Elsewhere, look for Max Strus, Kyle Lowry, Kevin Love, and Caleb Martin to see decent run. For some reason, the Heat are insistent on Gabe Vincent starting, but he will continue to have little impact. Other candidates would be Victor Oladipo and Cody Zeller, but their minutes will vary from game to game.

X-Factor

The off-ball guards will be crucial for Miami. Jimmy Butler will have to force Giannis to guard him on the perimeter to create space for his teammates, but he himself is far from elite out there. Moreover, Bam Adebayo will have his hands full with Brook Lopez on the inside, while Jrue Holiday lines up on Tyler Herro. Thus, the duo of Kyle Lowry and Max Strus will have to make every shot count to keep this series close.

Boston Celtics (2) vs. Atlanta Hawks (7)

Boston Celtics (-1200 to win series)

Introduction

Following a disappointing loss in the NBA Finals to the Warriors, Boston came back stronger this season. As a team, Boston won six more games this season than they did last year. Moreover, both Tatum and Brown saw increases in their scoring outputs. This roster is sound from top to bottom, and it will come down to avoiding poor performances when it matters most.

Matchup

No matter which way you look at it, Boston matches up well versus Atlanta. They have multiple elite perimeter defenders to counter the Hawks’ star backcourt, while having formidable defenders on the inside as well. Moreover, a one-two scoring punch of Tatum and Brown is one of the best these NBA Playoffs have to offer. Add in two-way players such as Marcus Smart and Malcolm Brogdon, whose games are tailored to the playoffs and Boston is in for a serious run.

Rotation

Make no mistake about it, the core of a team that won the Eastern Conference has returned from last season. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are coming off terrific seasons and will anchor their team once again. Moreover, Marcus Smart and Malcolm Brogdon are terrific two-way options for another playoff run. Al Horford and Robert Williams III will anchor the paint, while Grant Williams and Derrick White round out the rotation.

X-Factor

The key parts to this Boston rotation will all play important roles in this series. However, assuming both Smart and Brogdon clamp Trae Young, Al Horford and Robert Williams III will be crucial on the inside. Both John Collins and Clint Capela are terrific as the roll man in a pick-and-roll offense. Moreover, Atlanta has shooters on the outside to make Boston pay for defensive mistakes. The interior duo will have to be sharp on the glass and with paint defense, making this a series built for Robert Williams III.

Atlanta Hawks (+750 to win series)

Introduction

After their win in the Play-In, Atlanta dodged a matchup versus Giannis and the Bucks in the opening round. However, things do not get any easier, as Boston are the defending Conference champions and are set on making another deep playoff run. Barring extreme circumstances, Atlanta looks destined for yet another early exit, which could bring massive changes in the offseason.

Matchup

Individual and collective matchups do not favor the Hawks. On the perimeter, Marcus Smart and Malcolm Brogdon will be a problem for Trae Young. Moreover, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown will be tough to contain, considering De’Andre Hunter can only guard one of them. Truthfully, Dejounte Murray will have to keep Brown at bay if they want the slightest chance of winning this series, and while it will happen for a game or two, Boston has too big of an edge in all facets of the game.

Rotation

Trae Young and Dejounte Murray lead a star-studded backcourt, surrounded by quality role players. De’Andre Hunter, John Collins, and Clint Capela likely round out the starting unit in this one. Meanwhile, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Saddiq Bey, and Onyeka Okongwu round out the rest of the rotation.

X-Factor

With Trae Young having to deal with one of Marcus Smart or Malcolm Brogdon for every minute that he is on the court, Dejounte Murray will have to step up in a big way. If Atlanta wants to succeed in this series, Young needs to be just as good off the ball as he is with it, and Murray needs to be an exemplary playmaker. The pick-and-roll is just as useful with Murray and it is Young, and the former is an excellent counterpart to the rebounding abilities of Boston’s guards.

Philadelphia 76ers (3) vs. Brooklyn Nets (6)

Philadelphia 76ers (-1000 to win series)

Introduction

It truly is Championship or bust for the 76ers at this point. Not only did they acquire James Harden to flank Joel Embiid, but this roster is built to win now. Aside from Tyrese Maxey, there is no young, promising talent on this team. However, with Boston, Milwaukee, and Cleveland standing in their way, the road to the NBA Finals is as hard as it ever will be for Philadelphia.

Matchup

The matchup for Philadelphia is decent here. Mikal Bridges will be a pain to deal with on the outside, but everything will have to funnel through Joel Embiid in the paint. Nic Claxton is no slouch around the rim, but with the way Embiid gets foul calls in his favor every night, there is a mismatch there. However, where the 76ers could find themselves in trouble is if the surrounding group are not hitting their shots. Assuming Bridges keeps Harden in check, it will be up to Melton, Maxey, and Harris to pitch in on the scoring sheet, something that has held Philadelphia back in the past.

Rotation

Joel Embiid will man the paint for the bulk of the minutes. Moreover, James Harden will have his minutes staggered at times so at least one is on the court at all times, but the two will be featured together a lot. Tobias Harris and Tyrese Maxey will be the secondary scoring options, while De’Anthony Melton provides a combination of perimeter defense and three-point shooting. Philadelphia also has the luxury of using Jalen McDaniels to spell Harris, while PJ Tucker will be a primary defender throughout the series. Georges Niang and Shake Milton will see minutes as they fit, which won’t be very often.

X-Factor

While the duo of James Harden and Joel Embiid will lead the charge on offense, Tyrese Maxey has the potential to have the biggest impact in this series. Harden will draw coverage from Mikal Bridges, who is one of the best perimeter defenders in the league. The pick-and-roll will be utilized a ton here to feature Embiid, but Maxey will find himself with open lanes to the rim off the ball when Embiid kicks to the outside.

Brooklyn Nets (+650 to win series)

Introduction

What was supposed to be a Championship season for the Brooklyn Nets took a turn for the worse. Their Big 3 of James Harden, Kevin Durant, and Kyrie Irving was initially broken up when Harden was dealt for Ben Simmons. However, following multiple occasions of Irving having off-court issues, he was dealt to Dallas, while Durant found himself in Phoenix. However, there is a silver lining to the situation. Brooklyn received who could be the very best, if not one of the best 3-and-D wings in the NBA in Mikal Bridges. While they had a losing record after the trade, Bridges posted 26.1 points per game in 27 appearances for the Nets.

Matchup

This is a tough matchup for Brooklyn but it is certainly winnable. The key will be to switch the right offensive option onto James Harden and for said player to knock down shots when they come. Sounds simple enough, right? Well, not quite. The 76ers now quietly have multiple elite perimeter defenders in De’Anthony Melton and Jalen McDaniels. Meanwhile, while his offensive game is as useless as they come, PJ Tucker will likely get the first chance to guard Mikal Bridges. Lastly, Joel Embiid awaits in the paint, which is self-explanatory.

Rotation

The Nets will be in tough to find the right rotation to match Philadelphia. However, Nic Claxton needs to be out there for every minute that Joel Embiid is. Moreover, Mikal Bridges and Spender Dinwiddie seem poised to carry the bulk of minutes. Both Cam Johnson and Royce O’Neale make for good two-ways options, while the former has far more upside offensively. Lastly, Seth Curry and Joe Harris can provide scoring off the bench, while Dorian Finney-Smith will be needed as a perimeter defender. Two young talents in Cam Thomas and Day’Ron Sharpe await their chance, but it’s unlikely to be here.

X-Factor

Make no mistake about it, the Nets will only go as far as Mikal Bridges can take them. His game is a perfect fit for the NBA Playoffs, but this is reserved for players who are not the top talent on their respective rosters. Thus, Spencer Dinwiddie makes the cut. Not only did he have interesting takes on FanDuel TV recently, but he has a lot to prove. Dinwiddie has been on four teams in the last four years and needs to take control of this offense. The 76ers are exploitable in switches on James Harden, and Dinwiddie will have to find a way to take advantage when opportunities arise.

Cleveland Cavaliers (4) vs. New York Knicks (5)

Cleveland Cavaliers (-200 to win series)

Introduction

After the acquisition of Donovan Mitchell, expectations skyrocketed for this young Cavaliers team. Surrounded by quality veterans, this team is poised to make a deep run in the NBA Playoffs. While their core four are young, the Cavaliers excel on both ends of the court. Not only can they beat you multiple ways offensively, but they have the best defensive unit statistically this season. In what could be a surprise to some, Cleveland are darkhorse Championship contenders.

Matchup

While the Knicks’ defense is far from elite, they are no slouch as a unit either. Collectively, New York finished 19th in defensive rating and 13th in points per game allowed. However, their true strength is on the glass, finishing second in the NBA in rebounding percentage. The Cavaliers match up well though, with both Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen leading the charge. Donovan Mitchell figures to lead the charge here in all facets of the offense. Most notably, New York finished 27th in three-pointers allowed per game.

Rotation

Despite having a star-studded starting lineup, the Cavaliers’ bench is thin. Thus, do not expect a ton of surprising minutes here. The backcourt will feature two of the NBA’s young talent in Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell. Moreover, Cleveland has another young duo in the frontcourt with Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. While one of Lamar Stevens or Isaac Okoro will presumably start games on the wing, Caris LeVert will see more minutes than both of them. Rounding out the rotation will be Dean Wade, Ricky Rubio, and Cedi Osman.

X-Factor

While Donovan Mitchell is the real difference-maker, top players will be avoided in this section. It is no knock on Evan Mobley, but he is featured instead of his teammate. Fresh off a nomination for NBA Defensive Player of the Year, Mobley’s versatility will be needed in this series. He will be the primary defender on Julius Randle and provide offensive upside. Moreover, he is a tremendous rebounder for his age. Should the Knicks go small at times with Randle at the ‘5’ in favor of Robinson, Mobley can shift over if Jarrett Allen needs to consequently sub out.

New York Knicks (+170 to win series)

Introduction

In what could have been a disastrous season for New York, the Knicks came out in a good position. While the top teams in the East were clear, finishing ahead of Atlanta, Miami, Chicago, and Miami is quite the achievement. After an offseason of turmoil following the max contract signing of Jalen Brunson, the former Maverick had a career year. Not only did Brunson average 24/3.5/6.2 on 49.1% shooting, but he was the clear leader on the court.

Matchup

This matchup could not be worse for the Knicks. Not only did Cleveland rank first in defensive rating this year, but they also allowed the fewest points per game in the NBA. Moreover, the rank first versus multiple player types. Primary ball handlers, off-ball guards, and scoring centers all struggle mightily versus the Cavaliers.

Rotation

Expect Coach Tom Thibodeau to stick to his roots. Through his career, he has been notorious for having one of the tightest rotations, no matter the time of year. Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle will be key for the Knicks this series. Moreover, a battle in the paint awaits for Mitchell Robinson. Lastly, the trio of Quentin Grimes, RJ Barrett, and Josh Hart will flank the wings. Look for Isaiah Hartenstein and Obi Toppin to pick up limited minutes in a backup role. Meanwhile Immanuel Quickley will continue to come off the bench, but will play clutch minutes and be in the closing lineup.

X-Factor

Playing against one of the best defenses in the NBA makes this section difficult. The Knicks will need both Quentin Grimes and RJ Barrett to step up. While they are far from the flashiest players on offense, they have the best matchup. Lining up against a combination of Isaac Okoro and Caris LeVert is as good as it will get versus Cleveland. However, the true x-factor in this series will be Mitchell Robinson. While the big man has had his limitations, this matchup is right up his alley. Both Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen are forces on both ends of the court, but Robinson will be needed every step of the way for New York.

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

1 year ago 0 comment

NBA

NBA Ghost’s Gems for Play-In Tournament (Apr. 12)

Richard Masana 1 year ago

written by Richard Masana

On the second day of the NBA Play-In tournament, there are two intriguing matchups. The Eastern Conference side features two underachieving rosters. Meanwhile, the Western Conference side has two rosters set to contend in the near future.

Here is the NBA Playoff bracket with final seeding:

The fantasy sports landscape shifts drastically throughout the NBA Playoffs. Rotations are much more condensed, while teams are quick to shorten their bench. In both this article and the Opening Round Matchup Breakdown articles, there will be rotation notes, player breakdowns, analytical advantages, and key x-factors. The x-factor will not be the best player on the team, but rather, someone that will provide an edge in both fantasy sports and on the court in real time.

Toronto Raptors (9) vs. Chicago Bulls (10)

Toronto Raptors (-5.5)

Introduction

Although they won an NBA Championship only a few seasons ago, this roster looks like it needs a massive overhaul. Scottie Barnes is a player to build a franchise around, and Pascal Siakam remains an All-NBA talent. However, the inconsistency of Fred VanVleet along with a combination of injuries and a short bench ruined the potential of a successful season for the Raptors.

Matchup

Despite an offense that thrives on switchability and getting to the rim, this matchup will be exploited on the perimeter. Outside of Alex Caruso, the Bulls do not have elite perimeter defenders. Yes, Patrick Beverley was added to the roster, but he is the furthest thing from an impact player when the cards are on the table. Moreover, the Bulls ranked 29th in the NBA in three-pointers allowed per game. This creates an excellent scenario for Fred VanVleet, OG Anunoby, and Gary Trent Jr. off the bench.

Rotation

Coach Nick Nurse plays his cards tight. As he always has, whether it is a regular season game in January or the NBA Play-In round. Look for Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, and Scottie Barnes to garner all the minutes they can handle. Moreover, Jakob Poeltl will man the paint, while OG Anunoby flanks the wings. Elsewhere, Gary Trent Jr. will be the first guard off the bench, while Precious Achiuwa and Chris Boucher will pick up a few minutes in the frontcourt.

X-Factor

While Fred VanVleet and Pascal Siakam will lead the offense, no one is as important as Scottie Barnes. In the few minutes VanVleet takes off, Barnes will handle the rock. Moreover, his combination of scoring, playmaking, and rebounding makes him elite in all aspects of the game. Lastly, he has the most important defensive assignment of the night in guarding one of Zach Lavine or DeMar DeRozan at all times.

Chicago Bulls (+5.5)

Introduction

Despite having a lot of money committed to their “Big 3”, Chicago had yet another disappointing season. Only Zach Lavine and DeMar DeRozan averaged over 20 points per game. Elsewhere only Patrick Williams (10.2 points per game) chipped in double digits per night. This team is not only severely limited on offense, but they are in one of the toughest matchups they could have possibly imagined in the NBA Play-In round.

Matchup

This is simply an awful matchup for the Bulls. Yes, the Raptors have underwhelmed this season after winning an NBA Championship only a few years ago. Gone is Kawhi Leonard, but the core of this team remains intact. Scottie Barnes and OG Anunoby will wreck havoc on the defensive side of the ball, while the acquisition of Jakob Poeltl gives Toronto an interior presence they have lacked. It will be a low-scoring affair, and massive changes await the Bulls if they do not make it out of this game.

Rotation

Chicago can approach their rotation in a few ways heading into this game. The intelligent way to do would be offsetting Lavine, DeRozan, and Vucevic so that two of three are on the court at all times. Zach Lavine needs to lead the team in minutes if they want a shot at winning. Moreover, while he was inconsistent at times this season, Fred VanVleet needs to be guarded by Alex Caruso. Elsewhere, Patrick Williams is a good fit in this one, while Patrick Beverley will likely get more attention than Coby White, despite the former being useless on the offensive side of the ball. If Beverley gets more minutes than Caruso and White, there is no doubt that it will be the demise of the Bulls.

X-Factor

This issue for this Bulls offense is just how stout Toronto’s defense can be. When you have Scottie Barnes and OG Anunoby guarding you, their wingspans allow them to contest nearly every shot successfully. However, Zach Lavine will have to be the key contributor tonight. Yes, DeMar DeRozan is the king of the midrange jumper. However, it is Lavine that will be able to not only create shots for others, but his own.

New Orleans Pelicans (9) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (10)

New Orleans Pelicans (-5.5)

Introduction

It was an underwhelming season for the Pelicans. After a torrid start to the year, where they went 18-8, the injury bug caught up to them. Zion Williamson was held to a mere 29 appearances, while Brandon Ingram made 45 of his own. However, this roster is well constructed and has potential. Ingram leads the offense, while a savvy veteran in CJ McCollum gives New Orleans stability in the backcourt. Flanked by two of the most underrated defenders in the NBA, the Pelicans look good heading into this matchup, if they can hold the young Thunder in check.

Matchup

An unsettling matchup looms for the Pelicans. While the Thunder’s defensive unit is far from elite, this is an offense that posted the fifth-most points per game in the NBA. On the offensive side of the ball, Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum will carry the highest usage rates. However, do not overlook Jonas Valanciunas. Yes, his minutes are in question, depending on the matchup throughout the regular season. But in a one-and-done scenario, look for Valanciunas to dominate an OKC interior that ranked 22nd versus true centers and 28th in rebounding percentage.

Rotation

Considering the Pelicans roster is appropriately placed on the pricing grid tonight, there is not much interest in their bench. Additionally, this figures to be one of, if not the tightest rotations in the Play-In. Brandon Ingram will flank CJ McCollum in the backcourt. Meanwhile, the perimeter defensive duo of Herbert Jones and Trey Murphy III have a daunting task ahead of them. Jonas Valanciunas will man the paint and is in a terrific matchup, as alluded to above. Elsewhere, Josh Richardson and Naji Marshall will be the first to come off the bench, as will Larry Nance Jr., should he be healthy enough. If not, look for one of Jaxson Hayes or Willy Hernangomez to pick up a few minutes.

X-Factor

No one will be as crucial for the Pelicans in this game as Herbert Jones. Yes, he has many limitations on offense. Not only did he averaged a mere 9.8 points per game on a horrific 14.5% usage rate, but his shot is incredibly inconsistent. However, Jones is a candidate for an All-NBA defense team this year and has been tremendous when guarding primary ball handlers. Thus, with a matchup against Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on the horizon, he will be in for a ton of minutes.

Oklahoma City Thunder (+5.5)

Introduction

While most had the Thunder set for the NBA draft lottery, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had other plans. Not only did the Canadian break out this season, but he finished fourth in league scoring. Moreover, Josh Giddey and Jalen Williams were terrific this year. Giddey came through on multiple occasions, averaging 16.6/7.9/6.2 on 48.2% shooting. Additionally, had it not been for Paolo Banchero, Williams would be the favorite for Rookie of the Year. JDub had a terrific run after the All-Star break and finished fourth in rookie scoring.

Matchup

Despite the loss of Zion Williamson, the Pelicans have a stout defensive unit. Not only did they rank 6th in the NBA in defensive rating, but they also allowed the ninth-fewest points per game. However, the backcourt of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey will give the Pelicans all they can handle. The Pelicans have two terrific perimeter defenders and this one will come down to who can outduel the other.

Rotation

Four players will seemingly not leave the court for the Thunder tonight. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Josh Giddey, Jalen Williams, and Lu Dort figure to play the most minutes. Moreover, the duo of Jaylin Williams and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl will man the paint. Elsewhere, Isaiah Joe will be the first guard off the bench. Lastly, their minutes aren’t guaranteed, but Dario Saric, Tre Mann, and Lindy Waters III are darkhorse candidates, depending on the flow of the game.

X-Factor

The role that Lu Dort will have to play in this game cannot go overlooked. Yes, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will lead the offense. Moreover, Josh Giddey will be a force on both ends of the court. But it is Dort that will have to step up in a big way. The 3-and-D wing has a perfect game for the NBA Playoffs. He is an excellent defender and can hit the three well. In a matchup versus Brandon Ingram, Dort will have to excel on both ends of the court.

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

1 year ago 0 comment

NBA

NBA Ghost’s Gems for Play-In Tournament (Apr. 11)

DFSGhost 1 year ago

written by DFSGhost

With the NBA season concluded, it’s time for the best part of the season. The Play-In tournament was introduced three seasons ago and has been a great addition to the existing format. In a one-and-done scenario for some, every second of these games is crucial.

Here is the NBA Playoff bracket with final seeding:

Miami Heat (7) vs. Atlanta Hawks (8)

Miami Heat (-5.5)

Introduction

Despite their shortcomings on offense, Miami has one of the best defensive units in the NBA Playoffs. A one-two punch of Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo on the perimeter and in the paint, respectively, is one of the best combinations in the league. However, the Heat will need to find a way to produce offensively. No player averaged more than 11.5 points per game outside of Butler, Adebayo, and Tyler Herro. Additionally, Miami had the lowest scoring offense in the league this year with 109.5 points per game.

Matchup

On paper and in real time, these two teams are complete opposites. Miami had the worst scoring offense in the league, while only being ranked 25th in offensive rating and 29th in pace. However, the Hawks posted over 118 points per game, ranking them third in the league. They also were 7th in offensive rating and 6th in pace.

Rotation

The Heat will only go as far as Butler, Adebayo, and Herro take them. On a two-game NBA slate, raw points are king. Thus, Butler and Herro make for the most intriguing options on this roster. Elsewhere, look for Max Strus, Kyle Lowry, Kevin Love, and Caleb Martin to see decent run. Other candidates, would be Victor Oladipo, Gabe Vincent, and Cody Zeller, but don’t count on it.

X-Factor

As alluded to earlier, this section is reserved for a player that is set to be an unknown difference-maker. In this game, Jimmy Butler will be the best player on the court. However, there is a good chance that Tyler Herro leads the team in scoring. If the Hawks play this one properly, they would have Hunter on Butler, Murray on Herro, and Young on Strus or Lowry. However, the Hawks have been reluctant to do so this season, meaning whoever lands on an individual matchup versus Trae Young will be crucial to a win.

Atlanta Hawks (+5.5)

Introduction

In an awkward position with a lot of money and term committed to multiple players, the Hawks stumbled into the Play-In tournament this season. Atlanta is still a key piece or two away from being true contenders, but they have a legitimate shot at winning this game due to their offensive firepower. In a year where offenses were taken to new heights, it was Atlanta who scored the third-most points per game, posting the seventh-best offensive rating amongst all teams.

Matchup

On paper, this is a horrendous matchup for the Hawks’ main contributors. Trae Young will certainly lead the offense, but Miami has the best perimeter defense in the NBA this season. Moreover, they ranked first against true primary ball handlers. Where Miami could be exploited is on the deep ball; the Heat ranked 28th in the league this season to three-point shooters, giving up 13.1 makes per game.

Rotation

X-Factor

As alluded to earlier, this section is reserved for a player that is set to be an unknown difference-maker. In this game, De’Andre Hunter will be the most crucial contributor not named Trae Young or Dejounte Murray. While both John Collins and Clint Capela have their hands full with Bam Adebayo guarding the paint, it is Hunter that will benefit from a Heat defensive unit known to switch Jimmy Butler onto primary ball handlers. Being one of the most promising 3-and-D wings in the NBA since coming out of Virginia, Hunter will be relied upon on both ends of the court.

Los Angeles Lakers (7) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (8)

Los Angeles Lakers (-7.5)

Introduction

Despite a season of turmoil, the Lakers turned things around to get into the Play-In tournament. This team has one of the best duos in the NBA, alongside quality role players whom were acquired at the trade deadline. The highlight of the season has to be the emergence of Austin Reaves, who will play a crucial role in the Lakers’ playoff run.

Matchup

In the absence of Rudy Gobert, no player has a better matchup than Anthony Davis. Moreover, LeBron James figures to dominate against a Minnesota team that struggled to guard primary ball handlers all season long. With Minnesota playing at a fast pace with like Los Angeles does, only with far worse defense, this one plays right into the Lakers’ hands.

Rotation

This Lakers rotation is surprisingly deep thanks to an overhaul at the trade deadline. Alongside LeBron James and Anthony Davis, D’Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves will play prominent minutes. Moreover, Jarred Vanderbilt and his defensive ability will earn him significant run. Rounding out the rotation, when necessary, are Dennis Schroder (when healthy), Malik Beasley, and Tory Brown Jr. There is potential for Rui Hachimura and/or Wenyen Gabriel to see some time if the Lakers make a Playoff run, but their minutes will be scarce.

X-Factor

As alluded to earlier, this section is reserved for a player that is set to be a difference-maker without being the consensus top talent on his team. In this game, the duo of D’Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves will be relied upon to take advantage of a poor Minnesota perimeter defense. On the season, Minnesota ranked 25th in the NBA versus primary ball handlers, which bodes well for LeBron James, but Reaves and Russell have enticing matchups versus Mike Conley, Taurean Prince, and Anthony Edwards.

Minnesota Timberwolves (+7.5)

Introduction

The Minnesota overhaul was a disaster. Rudy Gobert was acquired in the offseason for far too many assets, and it simply has not worked out. This offense is stagnant, relying on Anthony Edwards in isolation far too often. Meanwhile, the defensive unit has been mediocre at best. In a matchup versus a streaking Lakers team, the Timberwolves will be lucky to be in this game at the start of the fourth quarter.

Matchup

The highlight of this matchup will be the pace of play. Respectively, Los Angeles and Minnesota ranked 4th and 7th in the NBA this season. However, when the individual matchups are broken down, there is not much to like about the Timberwolves. Sure, Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns will handle a ridiculous number of offensive looks, but lining up on LeBron James and Anthony Davis is no joke. Moreover, Minnesota will be forced to rely on role players who, themselves, are outmatched by the likes of D’Angelo Russell, Austin Reaves, and Jarred Vanderbilt.

Rotation

Minnesota’s season was underwhelming after the acquisition of Rudy Gobert, and it was truthfully expected. In this game, expect to see as much Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns as you ever have. Moreover, Kyle Anderson and Taurean Prince will be forced into meaningful minutes. Since Jaylen Nowell missed five straight games to end the regular season, Jordan McLaughlin and Nickeil Alexander-Walker are the first guards off the bench. Filler minutes will be there for Austin Rivers and Nathan Knight, if necessary.

X-Factor

As alluded to earlier, this section is reserved for a player that is set to be an unknown difference-maker. In this game, the Timberwolves simply do not stand a chance if Towns does not have one of the best games of his career. With Rudy Gobert suspended and Naz Reid out for the season, Towns will have to stay out of foul trouble against Anthony Davis. This is not going to go well for Minneosta.

You can find me on Twitter @BetsByGhost and in the Win Daily Discord

1 year ago 0 comment

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