Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s eight-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:10PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!
The biggest weather threat is in Cincinnati for the Tigers-Reds game, which if it plays will have to be through heavy rain. If the forecasts changes we can consider the Reds hitters against LHP Matthew Boyd, but this game has a good shot at a PPD so it might just be too risky even for bats.
There isn’t an SP play on the main slate without risk, but Valdez offers the best shot at a decent floor with GPP-winning upside. He’s likely where a lot of folks will be starting their cash game builds. If he can avoid the big blow from Fernando Tatis Jr. and navigate through the rest of this lefty-heavy lineup, I’m confident he’ll be sitting somewhere in that 29-46 point range where he’s lived comfortably in his last seven starts. Valdez sports a relatively pedestrian 22.4% K rate this season, but he’s posted at least 6 Ks in five of his last six starts and the Padres don’t necessarily destroy lefty pitching. This slate isn’t pretty for starting pitching, but Valdez is likely the best we’ve got.
The White Sox starting rotation has taken some hits lately, with both Lane Lynn and Lucas Giolito on the shelf — at least temporarily. If Tony La Russa weren’t so old school, I’d be worried about Lopez going the requisite five innings he needs to pick up the win, but if “Pound-em-down” Tony says Lopez is starting, he’s probably willing to let him go 5-6 IP, which should be plenty long enough to make value against the Royals. Lopez had 42 FD points in his last start (against the Cubs) on August 27, striking out 7 in 5.0 IP and notching a win. We could see similar results tonight.
As WinDaily’s Adam Strangis points out in his MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.4 article, Musgrove worked some magic against the Angels his last time on the bump, and gets another tough test facing the Astros — a team that just doesn’t strike out very much and mashes it around the yard (lowest K-rate in baseball, top three in wOBA, wRC+, OPS, and OBP). Musgrove is pitching this game in his team’s NL park, so that helps, and the most recent performance by the Astros against an ancient Jake Arrieta shows that at least they aren’t red-hot heading into the matchup. Both of the implied team totals in this game are under 4 runs, so it could really go either way. I’m assuming that Musgrove’s ownership will be much lower than that of Valdez. If Braves RHP Ian Anderson were looking anything like his 2020 self in his last few starts after returning from injury, I’d have some interest in suing him as a contrarian play in Coors, but that just doesn’t appear to be the wise move tonight.
We’ve got another huge total Coors game tonight, so if you’re believer they’ll finally give us the shootout we’ve been promised tonight — have at it. But the past couple of nights have given us the highest totals outside of Coors, which is where we’ll be focusing our attention for tonight’s slate. That starts with Dodgers against LHP Sammy Long in San Francisco in a revenge game. This lineup just lost first place to the Giants last night and they absolutely destroy fastballs, and that’s primarily what Long throws. I’m starting my stacks with Trea Turner ($4,300), Mookie Betts ($4,100), A.J. Pollock ($3,200) and Justin Turner ($3,800), but lefties Max Muncy ($4,000 — if he doesn’t sit) and Corey Seager ($3,800) are in play as well.
If you’re not into playing the juggernaut Dodgers in a pitcher’s park, then consider rolling out the White Sox, who project well against young lefty Daniel Lynch. Lynch has been solid lately and has some contrarian upside in his own right tonight, but the smart money (4.95 projected team total for the Sox) is on Luis Robert ($4,200), Jose Abreu ($4,100), Eloy Jimenez ($3,600) and Yasmani Grandal ($3,500) pulvering baseballs and giving us a big offensive night. Andrew Vaughn and his .380 wOBA vs. LHP is the best value option at just $2,500, while Leury Garcia ($2,300) who sports positive splits against LHP (.320 wOBA) makes sense as well if you need the salary savings and need to drop one of the bigger bats.
The Angels offense just hasn’t been great the last couple of weeks, sporting a relatively weak wRC+ of 78 and .128 ISO over the past 14 days. But that all changes tonight against LHP Kolby Allard. On the season, the splits against LHP are solid, with a team wOBA of .322, ISO of .180 and 105 wRC+, numbers that match well against Allard and his ERA and FIP — both north of 5.00. Plus, the wind is blowing out to right field in a hitter’s park, and the temperature is the highest of any game in the slate. We’re going to see some runs scored in Anaheim tonight, and I’m starting my stacks with Shohei Ohtani ($4,500), David Fletcher ($2,900), Jo Adell ($2,500) and Justin Upton ($2,700). Max Stassi ($2,900) is in play if he starts, and so is “Fabulous” Phil Gosselin ($2,300) if he’s high in the order.
Make sure to keep an eye on the starters as lineups are released. Good luck tonight, and please utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!
Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s 10-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!
There are some weather issues tonight but we can exploit that by playing at least one pitchers folks might stay away from because of the PPD threat in Yankee Stadium.
Cole was brilliant in his last start and there’s nobody (except possibly Brandon Woodruff) with the upside he carries into this matchup. It’s the Red Sox, so it’s not an easy task, but he’s carried a 33.5% K rate into the All-Star break and could easily hit double digit Ks against this bunch. The only thing that worries me is the weather, so be ready to pivot to Woodward or another high-priced option like Anthony Desclafani in cash games if it gets to be a tighter window of clean weather.
The price on Castillo does not reflect his consistency this season or the ceiling that he has in MLB DFS. Again — the biggest problem I have with using him is weather, and if the chances for a delay are low enough I’ll take that chance in some GPPs. Castillo struggled with his command all day against the Brewers in his last outing, needing 102 pitches just to get through 5.1IP, but he did rack up 6 Ks. I think he’ll right some of that ship in another crack at this not-very-scary Brewers lineup.
Eovaldi handles the Yankees quite well, scoring 46 points (June 4 outing @NYY: 6.0 IP, 7 Ks, 1 ER) and 48 points (June 28 outing vs. NYY: 7.2 IP, 6 Ks, 1 ER) in his last two appearances facing the Bombers — who are missing some firepower tonight and are still stocked with plenty of right-handed batters. Adam Strangis discusses some of that upside in his must-read 7/17 Starting Rotation article, and I’m buying into that upside as a reasonably priced GPP option. Ownership should be low and I still think Eovaldi could get to double digit strikeouts as long as they finish this before the rain comes.
The Dodgers in Coors Field are going to be the highest owned stack, but let’s consider the Padres. It’s fun to pick on Patrick Corbin, and the red-hot Padres lineup looks ready to go again tonight — but only if the weather cooperates. The smart-money weather sharps are projecting a late start and completed game, but we’ll have to double check before lineup lock to see if that’s still the case. Getting Fernando Tatis Jr. ($4,300), Manny Machado ($3,800), Tommy Pham ($2,900) and Wil Myers ($2,500) into my stack would be the top priority.
There’s no threat of bad weather and the Angels are loaded with value in this matchup against hittable Yusei Kikuchi. Aside from the mopre expensive Shohei Ohtani ($4,500) and Jared Walsh ($3,500), we can find lots of value in David Fletcher ($2,900), Max Stassi ($2,800) and Taylor Ward ($2,500). I’d probably try a few different combinations to mix things up, but I like that five-player pool of bats on this “other” LA team tonight.
I’m not convinced the Braves won’t just rock Josh Fleming off the mound early tonight and I’m really interested in starting the big righty bats, including switch-hitting Ozzie Albies ($3,700), Dansby Swanson ($3,300) and Austin Riley ($3,100), with lefty 1B Freddie Freeman ($4,100) finishing off the four-man stack. Ownership will be low but these guys have massive upside in this matchup. Catcher Kevan Smith is also really cheap at $2,200.
Good luck tonight, and make sure you utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!
Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s six-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:15PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!
No major weather issues except a little light rain in the Windy City, and that wind is blowing in tonight.
With Gerrit Cole still looking lost a bit without his trusty sticky stuff, Buehler probably makes the most sense as the top ace on this small slate. While Cole does has another narrative at play here facing his former team — one that simply doesn’t strike out at normal human baseball team levels — Buehler is the largest favorite on the board and is the clear choice for cash games. Adam Strangis, in his must-read 7.10 Starting Rotation article, cites Buehler’s two appearances this season against a punchless D-Backs offense that resulted in 14.1 IP, 18 K’s, two ER, and just six free passes. His MLB DFS upside isn’t nearly what we’ve come to expect from a top ace, but he’s the safest option on the board.
Peralta gets the nod for best GPP value because he’s under $10K, but if you need the added savings that bad, you could give Joe Musgrove a shot against the road Rockies, The thing I like about Peralta is his very steady K production, which helps give him a daily FD points projection of over 40 just about every game. The Reds do a good job of putting the ball into play, especially on the road, where the team K rate is a few percentage points lower than at home, but if Fab Finger Freddy can avoid the walks and the big blow, this should be a W and another 40-45 points. Musgrove will likely come in with higher ownership and makes more sense for MLB DFS on a site like DK, where you need to start two pitchers, and one can be very chalky.
If you really want to see some savings at SP in large-field MLB DFS tourneys and stack up the big bats from the Dodgers, Brewers or other high-team-total offenses, you might have some interest in Sandoval, who’s made some adjustments to his pitch repertoire this season and carries a respectable 3.86/3.85 ERA/FIP combo into this matchup against one of the worst offenses in baseball. The Mariners strike out at the third-highest rate in MLB and give Sandoval the opportunity to not only eclipse his 25-30 point FD projection, but have a ceiling game in the 40-345 point range. He whiffed 10 Seattle batters in his last outing against the M’s and yielded just one walk and 2 ER en route to 46 FD points on June 6.
While the Dodgers bats are simply too cheap, they don’t seem to match up well vs. LHP Caleb Smith, who shut them out in 6.0 IP last time out on June 18. The Brewers, on the other hand, get to face Gutierrez — who’s given up 25 hits and 11 BB over his last 25.1 IP. “Kind of Bad” Vlad has done okay against lefties so far this season, but he’s been abnormally lucky, as his xFIP splits (6.41 vs. LHB) tell a different story. Look to some combination of the first six (also pretty inexpensive) bats here: Luis Urias ($2,600), Christian Yelich ($3,400), Jace Peterson ($2,600), Omar Narvaez ($2,500), Willy Adames ($2,700) and Avisail Garcia ($3,100). Yelich and Narvaez would be my two-man core if I had to pick a couple bats to populate more of my MLB DFS builds.
The Astros put the ball in play, and they’re at home against a pitcher who’s clearly not looking like his normal self. If they can get to him early, there’s massive GPP potential here in stacking some combination of these high-upside Houston bats, including: Jose Altuve ($4,200), Michael Brantley ($3,600), Kyle Tucker ($3,400) and Yordan Alvarez ($4,100) — who is 2-for-3 with two HR against Cole in his young career. I’m also willing to give a look to Martin Maldonado ($2,100) for some salary relief in a four-man stack that otherwise includes Altuve, Brantley and Alvarez. While it pains me to suggest stacking against my beloved Bombers on a short-handed slate, there just aren’t a ton of high-upside options to feast on tonight. I may have one Yankees stack as well, as Zack Greinke is long past his status as an MLB DFS ace.
We discussed how they’ve struggled against LHP and Smith this season, but they are very cheap compared to their usual salaries and the ownership shouldn’t be out of control since they aren’t the highest projected total on the board. Mookie Betts ($3,500) is probably the lowest we’ll see him all season, and there’s plenty of upside in the bats of Justin Turner ($3,000), Chris Taylor ($3,000), Cody Bellinger ($3,300) and Max Muncy ($3,700). I really like the direct cheap prices on Albert Pujols ($2,100) and Will Smith ($2,500) if they end dup in the lineup too.
Good luck tonight, and make sure you utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!
Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s seven-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:15PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!
The rain from Tropical Storm Claudette is seriously threatening to PPD the Braves-Cards game, so we’ll leave that off our list of targets. The rest of the games have just a few possible delays sprinkled in, so just keep an eye on SP for those games.
I’m not all that enamored with Walker Buehler’s strikeout numbers this season, and Lance Lynn is squaring up against an Astros lineup that just doesn’t strike out very much. Both are more expensive than Valdez and have about the same projected FD total, so Framber seems like the best option with the most upside in a home game that could turn into a pitcher’s duel. He’s carrying a 1.42 ERA that’s much lower than his 3.48 FIP but the xFIP is just 3.01. There is some additional reason for concern given that his 90.9% LOB% is pretty bloated, but he should fare well if he can keep the White Sox off the base paths today.
Sandoval has made great strides in the past year, mixing in a solid changeup to go along with a fledgling four-seamer that Adam Strangis highlights in his excellent, must-read 6/19 Starting Rotation piece. While I don’t agree with his choices of Buehler and Lynn before Valdez today, the writeup on Sandoval deftly addresses how much of a great leverage play Sandoval could be in tournaments tonight, especially with some folks stacking the cheap Tigers bats as a contrarian move in GPPs. Sandoval is a decent by-the-book DFS play on FD because of his effective recent starts and the fact that the Angels are -220 favorite and the Tigers have the highest team K rate (27.6%) in baseball.
Gutierrez has been awfully sharp in four outings this season, and while the Padres are not a team we like to play pitchers against, the rookie righty has yet to give up more than two earned runs in any start and already has two quality starts to his record in 2021. It’s important to point out that while the sample size is still very small, it’s possible major league hitters are still making an adjustment to the youngster’s stuff and what has been a very effective fastball. Gutierrez works in a slider, curve and change that have been average, but with injuries abounding in the Reds rotation, he’s making a play to stay there. As a GPP play, he’s got upside, along with huge bust potential, so steer clear of him in cash games and single-entry builds. Both he and the befuddling Austin Gomber (who’s pitched great in Coors Field this year) are interesting leverage plays on this slate.
The Angels have a .377 team wOBA in the past seven games, and they have some monster bats in Shohei Ohtani ($4,400), Jared Walsh ($3,800) and Justin Upton ($3,400), who has thrived in the leadoff spot. Mix in “FanDuel fourth-man” power options Max Stassi ($3,600), Taylor Ward ($2,900) and the possible return of Anthony Rendon ($3,700) and you’ve got the building blocks of a slate-breaking stack.
We can call the Dodgers a value stack on this slate because they have a few lefty hitters that qualify for that designation tonight including Gavin Lux ($2,900) and Zach McKinstry ($2,400). Using one or both of them should allow you to fit in two or three of the big bats: Mookie Betts ($4,200), Justin Turner ($3,900), a rejuvenated Albert Pujols ($3,10)and Chris Taylor, who is still overpriced a bit at $3,400 (unless he’s moved back up in the order). Will Smith ($2,700) and A.J. Pollock ($2,600) are also cheap and remain in the conversation for Dodgers stacks.
The Rays aren’t typically a contrarian stack, but they are today, especially with a Coors Field game on the slate. I’ll defer to the Discord chatter a bit on the specifics of the best Tampa Bay builds since they LOVE the Rays in there, but I’m starting my stacks with Austin Meadows ($3,800) and Randy Arozarena ($4,000), mixing in a few shares each of Joey Wendle ($3,100), Ji-Man Choi ($2,700) and Manuel Margot ($3,000).
Good luck tonight, and make sure you utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!
Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s four-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!
It’s another busy day for weather, but initial forecasts project only one game on the main slate that could be impacted: ATL @NYM — which they should be able to get in with a late start and under a light, steady rain.
Ownership is going to be heavily weighted toward Urias, who’s the obvious choice in cash games. He’s got the most upside of any pitcher on the slate and easily boasts the highest floor because of the matchup. With four 50+ FD point performances among his last seven starts, Urias is coming into his own as a reliable fantasy starter after being brought slowly along by the Dodgers in his first few seasons in the big leagues. The Giants have a team K% of 26.2% — seventh highest in MLB — and the Dodgers are the biggest favorites in this four-game slate. Don’t overthink this one. Urias should be a lock for your cash games and in the majority of your GPP lineups.
For whatever reason, Ian Anderson’s weekly start for Atlanta almost always lands on a Saturday night, which is just fine with me considering he’s my favorite young pitcher in baseball for selfish reasons: he’s from about a half-hour away in upstate New York’s Capital Region, and is probably the best pitcher to some out of this area in decades. Pitching in a steady rain should be a familiar thing for a guy from just north of Albany, NY. The talented hurler didn’t issue a walk or accumulated any earned runs in his last start en route to 46 FanDuel points — a perfectly viable number given the difficulty this slate presents for pitching options. While the Mets don’t strike out at a particularly high rate, they do have one of the league’s most feeble team wOBA marks — just .291. Compare that to what the Braves lineup offers — a /327 team wOBA — and you’ve got a recipe for another victory and 35-45 FD points.
This makes two SP options on tonight’s slate with WinDaily narratives. While I don’t know my area’s local product (Anderson) personally, Nick Bretwisch is buddies with Mike Foltynewicz (it’s a Minooka, Illinois thing) and he’s continually come through with the best spots to deploy Folty in our MLB DFS builds. On FanDuel tonight, he’s more of a large-field GPP contrarian play, since his K totals are a little lower this season. The silver lining, however, is in the opponent’s propensity to strike out. The Mariners have a team K% of 26.2% — sixth highest in baseball this season — and they sport the second-lowest team wOBA (.285) against RHP. If you’re hell-bent on jamming in the most expensive bats on the slate and/or want to get a little crazy at SP, Folty has some modest upside vs,. SEA.
Only two teams in yesterday’s slate scored more runs than the Cards, who beat the D-Backs 8-6 and helped secure a lot of green screens for folks that trusted they’d easily handle LHP Madison Bumgarner. Today they face a right-hander, but it’s a guy with considerably less major-league experience in Frankoff, who has just 13.1 IP under his belt in MLB. Frankoff is a 32-year-old journeyman who spent some time in Korea and is with his fifth major-league organization — a sign he’s not missing a whole lot of bats at this level. The Cards should be able to take advantage of his 6.46 FIP with their usual array of potent bats, including Paul Goldschmidt ($3,100), Nolan Arenado ($3,600), Dylan Carlson (underpriced at just $2,200) and Tyler O’Neill ($3,000) — who went deep last night and boasts a .370 wOBA and nine HR vs. RHP over his last 88 big league AB. I also like switch-hitting leadoff hitter Tommy Edman ($2,700) and there’s also an opportunity to do a full game stack here and run back some bats from Arizona: Josh Rojas ($2,300), Carson Kelly ($3,200), Ketel Marte ($3,300), David Peralta ($2,500), Pavin Smith ($2,600) and Eduardo Escobar ($2,700) are all woefully mispriced for this slate.
It’s bizarre to see the Dodgers listed as a value stack, but after you get past the high-priced bats of Mookie Betts ($3,900) and Max Muncy ($3,600), there’s a couple lefty hitters we can target for their value (Gavin Lux at $2,600 and upside-laden Matt Beaty at just $2,100) along with Justin Turner ($2,900), Chris Turner ($3,100) and Will Smith ($2,900). The Dodgers projected team run total is actually right around what the D-Backs are expected, so I’ll probably make a balance four-man stacks of each team (and some 2 LAD +2 ARI builds) against my four-man Cards stacks.
Tonight might be a really good night to experiment with low-stakes multi-entry GPP and leaving some money on the table, which means we can use some combination of Rangers 1-5 hitters in a few stacks with Dunn on the mound for Seattle. Dunn’s 3.40 ERA belies an xFIP of 5.76 — good news for guys like Willie Calhoun ($3,000), Nate Lowe ($2,900), Adolis Garcia ($4,300) and Joey Gallo ($3,200). Brock Holt ($2,500) has excellent numbers vs. RHP as well. The price tag and RHP vs. RHB matchup for Garcia might scare some folks away, but he makes for a great one-off even if you’re not stacking the Rangers, with a .400 wOBA, a .330 ISO and nine HR in less than 100 AB vs. RHP. Whatever you plan on doing, I’d include some of these Rangers bats in my GPP builds at what could be relatively low ownership even on a slate this small.
Good luck, and make sure you utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!
Baseball is back and I’ve got five hitters for you to consider in large-field DK GPPs for 7/28 MLB DFS, where it pays to be fearless!
If I’m spending up at catcher today, it’s for Smith, who sports a.410 road wOBA in his career and has a lofty .322 career ISO in 206 plate appearances.He’s a reliable power source who stands a good shot at going deep in MinuteMaid Park. We can find Wilson Ramos (DK $3,700) a little further down the pricelist and the punt play is probably Sal Perez (DK $2,800). But with plenty ofvalue on this slate I’ll leaning toward spending for the most pop at catcher.
I love the Athletics’ lefty bats in this matchup, as Antonio Senzatelais a bit of a dumpster fire against LHBs – yielding a .394 wOBA and a walk rateover 11%. Olson is almost $1K cheaper than Pete Alonso ($DK $5,500) and has a decentcontact rate for a slugger. I’ll absolutely be rolling out shares of Alonso andMax Muncy (DK $4,000), and the latter comes at a big discount because the Astrosare starting lefty Framber Valdez – who, let’s be honest, may not last long inthis game.
Kike is available at 2B and any of the three outfield positions onDK, so there’s a great deal of flexibility in fitting him in your lineups.There’s always a chance he comes out of the game in the later innings, but whathe can do in just an at bat or two facing a southpaw is very intriguing. Thepricing is very soft on some of these Dodgers bats, and I’ll be taking advantage.I do have some love for dirt-cheap 2B/OF Whit Merrifield (DK $3,800), but I’llbe happy to use him in an OF spot along with the Royals OF I’ll get to in aminute, and 2B/3B David Fletcher (DK $3,200) is another interesting optionleading off for the Angels, especially with that bevy of sluggers following him(Trout, Rendon, Upton, Ohtani, Pujols).
The price on Bogaerts is way too low, so I’m not going to overthinkthis one and just use him as my main SS on DK. You can make a case for AmedRosario (DK $5,100) in GPPs that feature Mets stacks, but I’ll be putting mostof my eggs in Xander’s basket tonight. And aside from Adalberto Mondesi (DK $3,400),I’m just not seeing much upside in the value guys.
I almost included Soler in yesterday’s column but decided to give Yelich a shot, and he respond by going yard – even if it was his only hit of the game. The multi-hit games are coming, and tonight could be the first of many. Merrifield-Soler-Mondesi-Perez-Ryan O’Hearn-Maikel Franco is a fine 1-6 stack against Detroit SP Rony Garcia, and I’d be happy to run it back with some Tigers bats in a full game stack. Spend-up one-offs include Trout (DK $6,000) and the much more moderately-priced Joey Gallo ($4,100), and Mookie Betts is in a fine spot for Dodgers stacks.
NOTE: Pitching worked out great last night as I got plenty of value from Glasnow and Wacha, but tonight is a much tougher proposition. I’m currently interested in value option Patrick Sandoval ($6,600) and pairing him with a mix of higher-priced options like Kyle Gibson and possibly even Walker Buehler – pitch count and tough matchup notwithstanding.
I’m looking at the offense for the Royals-Tigers game, which s of post time didn’t have a line yet. I’ll take the 1-2 hitters for the Royals who were discussed in the column and Tigers leadoff hitter Niko Goodrum. 3x is risky, but these guys can easily rack up 17.5 fantasy points so you can get a big triple-up reward when you take down your Monkey Knife Fight bet.
Good luck!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @LouisLipps and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.
Photo of Jorge Soler courtesy of Minda Haas Kuhlmann.
In this Win Daily Show Interview with Anna Click (@annaclick22), she joins Michael Rasile (@MichaelRasile1) to discuss her Red Sox Fandom, how the Mookie Betts trade made her feel, and what baseball is going to look like in 2020. We also discuss how she became a Red Sox fan living in Texas and really standing up for her team against her family!
*Note* This interview was conducted before the Mookie Betts mega deal, but we totally would have spoken about it if we could have.
Anna and Michael discuss how great, and terrible, of a place Twitter is at times. There are great conversations to be had with fun people, and then there are the worst people in the world. All of this on the same platform!
Anna has gained a following on Twitter by discussing baseball and her Red Sox, she hopefully can help Michael figure out Twitter one of these days…
Check out the show below and don’t forget to leave a 5 star review when you’re done!
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Pitchers and catchers! My favorite three word sentence has finally arrived along with thoughts of springtime. Baseball season is coming closer, so this would be a great time to look at future bets for the AL MVP Race and NL MVP Race we can sweat out with each other all season.
The AL MVP Race is Mike Trout vs. the world, with the departure of Mookie Betts to the Dodgers. Trout currently sits at +150 with Aaron Judge and Francisco Lindor each at +1000. Even with Mike Trout being the clear favorite for the foreseeable future, there isn’t enough of an upside to betting on him. I personally wouldn’t put my money on Judge or Lindor either. Judge may be coming for that 2017 AL MVP trophy, but he’s been hurt the last two years and hasn’t been able to find the magic he had in his rookie season. I wouldn’t be surprised if he misses some time again this year. I also think Lindor has a great shot at being traded at the deadline so Cleveland can make sure they aren’t in the situation the Red Sox were in this offseason.
My play here is Gleyber Torres at +4000. He’s moving over to shortstop, a significant step up in defensive importance, which will be looked at with wide eyes by baseball writers. The Yankees also lost a significant amount of players to injury last year, but Judge, Stanton, and Sanchez have a chance to miss time again. If those guys all miss time and Torres stays healthy, a 40 home run season on a 110 win team might be enough to win MVP honors. Don’t forget that even though Trout has all these MVPs, he has missed some important time the last few seasons as well, allowing another player a chance to swipe his crown. Is there some strange stat about how Trout has missed many games in a season but still wins or is top 3 in voting for the MVP.
An even longer shot for the AL MVP that is deserving of a look could be Gary Sanchez at +10000. For many of the same reasons as Torres winning, Sanchez could have the same opportunity. It’s usually difficult for a not-so-great defensive catcher/DH to win, but if everyone else on the Yankees is hurt and he carries them, there’s a chance.
The NL MVP Race should be much more interesting, assuming everyone stays healthy. Currently the 2018 AL MVP, Mookie Betts, has the best odds to take home the NL MVP title at +550. He is followed by Cody Bellinger (+700), Christian Yelich (+700), and Juan Soto (+1000). With three MVP winners in Betts, Bellinger, and Yelich all in the same race this one would be enjoyable just to sit back and watch, but throwing around some money on it peaks my interest.
I’m not looking to take either of the Dodgers because two guys that good on the same team will usually have a way of “splitting” votes. If one does get hurt and misses some time, the other is almost a lock for an uptick in votes, helping both of their cases. Yelich seems to have a great shot at the title each year but with missing time last year, he missed out on winning. I also think Soto is incredible, but I think +1000 isn’t enough. He’s riding high off that playoff run and I think the public will assume he does that for the entire season. Anthony Rendon won’t be in that lineup anymore, allowing more pitchers to go right around Soto and face a lesser threat on the Nationals.
The player I’m looking at for the NL MVP is Ronald Acuna Jr. at +1200. His odds will pay out a bit more than Soto, but I think he has a betting chance of winning the award. He came very close to the first 40/40 season since Alfonso Soriano in 2006, missing the feat by 3 stolen bases. He led the NL in runs and plate appearances last season and will have a great chance to do that again in 2020. The Braves have a great shot at repeating at the NL East champs, putting him on a winning team which (usually) helps. Let’s also not forget he’s patrolling center field and has a great glove, another reason to bump that WAR up. With that 40/40 season as close as it was last year, I wouldn’t be surprised if he makes a significant run at it this year, so make sure if you’re drafting in the top 2 of your fantasy baseball league to snag him.
An outside shot for the NL MVP to look at is Pete Alonso at +4000. If the Mets win the NL East and Alonso does what he did last year, he could absolutely be considered.
On our Thursday 9/5 DFS 7:05 main slate, there are seven ballgames – with one that stands out as a good single-game stack with a couple one-offs (a hot-hitting Cub and some RHBs on the lefty-mashing Houston buzzsaw). Are we ready to, once again, embrace the variance and win some green? You bet we are – and there’s enough pitching value to fade the top arms and build a lineup with serious studs.
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Most of this stack’s full-bodied components will be discussed hitterby hitter in greater detail below, but this is my top stack of the slate and I’llhave plenty of exposure to this game in general. The usual suspects apply. TheRed Sox are slashing a robust .285/.355/.506 at home this season and there’s nobodyI’d be careful to avoid.
The Twins have a little tougher matchup as they are underdogs inFenway Park, but they’d slashed .319/.384/.584 as a team over the past 7 daysheading into last night’s tough matchup vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (which resultedin a 6-2 loss). Look for the Twins to rebound in a big way against a hittable Eovaldi(6.23 ERA, 5.62 FIP). I like the outfielders (though Max Kepler was removedfrom last night’s game with upper chest soreness) and the slugging infielders (JorgePolanco, Miguel Sano, C.J. Cron, Luis Arraez).
Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and Yuri Gurriel make up the core of this stack, with Michael Brantley and/or Yordan Alvarez rounding it out on FD/DK. But if you’ve only got room for hitters like Aledmys Diaz, Abraham Toro and cheap catching option Robinson Chirinos, there’s still plenty of reason to get excited. The Astros has demolished LHPs this season to the tune of a 133 wRC+ and have great number sat home (.217 team ISO with just an 18.8% K rate – the second lowest in the league).
Chicago Cubs at Chase Anderson (Reverse splits pitcher and an implied total near 5 runs)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Kolby Allard (high-risk/value/contrarian)
Tampa Rays vs. Trent Thornton (high-risk/value/contrarian)
With Castro starting this game out on the bench, I’m pivoting to Chirinos. He’s about the same price and offers similar upside in this matchup. Chirinos sports a .444 xwOBA in 174 ABs (217 plate appearances) vs. LHPs over the past couple of seasons.
Gurriel has cooled off a little bit since his insane July (.408/.437/.847 in 24 games), but not much, as he posted a .344/.423/.677 slash in August. He’s actually a little better against RHPs but maintains a .237 ISO vs. lefties, so he’s maybe a tad contrarian if you’re mini-stacking stacking Astros along with Boston bats. The .298 home ISO and 148 home wRC+ make him an attractive option.
Altuve (.302/.369/.599 with 14 HR at home this season) isunderpriced on DK and the Astros have the second highest implied total (about 6runs) on the evening slate. The diminutive slugger has been in a bit of a funk withno XBH on the five-game road trip, but a return to friendlier confines could bejust what he needs. It’s hard to find better implied value at this position, sowhy look past the five-and-a-half footer if we’re putting our best foot forward?
Lefty on lefty for Devers hasn’t bothered me since he took AroldisChapman deep as a youngster for the Sox, and he’ll be an overlooked part of theBoston stack and low-owned because of it. He’s completely avoidable if you’renot stacking this team, but I love going with Devers at 3B because he’s alwaysin the thick of this offense and his production this season (.320/.369/.579 slashwith 29 HR and 107 RBI) shows it.
We’ve had success recently with Bogaerts, and this is agreat matchup for the power-hitting SS to show off his .416 xwOBA against LHPs overthe past two seasons. Martin Perez isn’t a bad pitcher these days, but he has stillyielded a .184 ISO and .865 OPS since 2018. I’ve been doing well not overthinkingon Xander, so that’ll continue as I plug him into most of my lineups at SS. Thesomewhat underpriced Alex Bregman ($4,900 DK, $4,400 FD) is the obvious pivotat 3B and SS if you’re not anxious play both Devers and Bogaerts.
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Bettshad a monster game last night and when Mookie gets hot, you continue to playhim. Boston’s leadoff hitter connected for a couple homers last night en routeto a 4-for-5, five RBI night. He’s still underpriced at $5K on DK and is a Benjamincheaper than J.D. Martinez on FD. Since the start of 2018, Betts is sporting anxwOBA of .430 against LHPs and even if Perez gets yanked early, a righthander faceseven more obscene Betts data (.468 xwOBA vs. RHPs and home xwOBA of .478).
Mr. Castellanos has taken the Windy City by storm, and he getsto travel to Milwaukee to hit in a controlled environment. The problem is thatthese walls cannot possibly contain him either, and he’s been a revelatory offensivepowerhouse since joining the Cubs in a deadline deal, slashing .346/.378/.709 witha ridiculous .362 ISO, .439 wOBA, 12 homers and 24 RBI in just 31 games. It’snot just Wrigley, either: the bell-ringer has split his dingers 6/6 betweenhome and road. Plus, he’s massively underpriced facing a reverse-splits righty (ChaseAnderson) on a small slate. It’ll be tough to leave him out in any format.
The Sox are my favorite team and Travis is much-welcomed valueto help you finish them off on FD with these four hitters I’ve listed, or even addin another bat on DK if you’re going that route. He hits lefties well (.382 xwOBA,.200 ISO and under a 20% strikeout rate over the past two seasons). He’s higherrisk and may attract some ownership, but at that low, low price I’ll make roomto differentiate elsewhere.
C: Wilson Contreras ($4,200 DK, $3,100 FD), Travis d’Arnaud($4,000 DK, $2,700 FD)
1B: Josh Bell ($4,800 DK, $4,200 FD), Garrett Cooper (valueat $3,500 DK, $2,700 FD)
2B: Jonathan Schoop ($4,600 DK, $3,100 FD), Starlin Castro($3,500 DK, $3,000 FD)
3B: Abraham Toro ($2,600 DK, $3,200 FD, Miguel Sano ($5,100DK, $3,900 FD)
SS: Alex Bregman, Jonathan Villar ($4,700 DK, $3,400 FD)and possibly Javier Baez (thumb, DTD – $4,600 DK, $4,100)
OF: Twins galore (Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario, Nelson Cruz, JakeCave), Trey Mancini, Anthony Santander and Ryan Braun (.475 xwOBA vs. LHPs, 415ISO including five career HR vs. Jose Quintana)
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