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Win Daily Sports is proudly partnered with Monkey Knife Fight. MKF is offering you a FREE Win Daily Gold membership for three months ($150 value) simply for making your first deposit on Monkey Knife Fight. And if free gold isn’t attractive enough, they’re also offering a 100% match bonus up to $100 when you use promo code WINDAILY.

Today I’ll be highlighting one of the tougher contests on MKF there is.  More or Less, 5/5.  Essentially, you need to get 5 picks correct.  If you go 5 for 5 you get a 20x payout.  Tough, the but the juice is worth the squeeze.  Especially if you end up winning.  

More or Less – 5/5 20x

Jonathan Taylor vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers  (81.5 rushing yards) – More

I should start by saying that the Bucs are one of the best teams against the run in the NFL.  They’ve given up over 100 yards rushing just once this year.  They’ve given up over 80 yards just twice.  This is as good of a run defense as we’ve seen in quite some time. 

With all that being said, Jonathan Taylor is on just an insane run right now.  He tore apart a solid Bills defense last weekend to the tune of 185 yards.  He’s on a mission for the MVP award.  While it will be a tough assignment, I’m all in on the guy and he should continue his insane run. 

Tom Brady vs. Indianapolis Colts (305.5 passing yards) – More

The Colts haven’t been bad against the pass this year.  They’ve given up more than 300 yards just twice this season.  In both of those games they’ve given up more than 400 yards.  If we look at the schedule though, outside of last week they really haven’t had to face a tough QB much this year. 

Tom Brady is no average QB.  He’ll go down as one of the best of our generation, if not the best.  Brady threw for 307 yards last week against the Giants in a blow out victory.  The Colts have been playing much better of late and I think they stay in this one.  If they do, Brady may very well throw for 350 yards at minimum.  I’m going with the over here. 

Ben Roethlisberger vs. Cincinnati Bengals (250.5 passing yards) – More

In what should be a tight divisional match up today vs. the Bengals, I expect Big Ben to bring his A game.  That A game consists of throwing the ball often.  The Bengals have given up more than 250 yards 5 out of their 10 games this season. 

One of those games was in week 3 vs. Big Ben himself.  In that game Roethlisberger threw for over 300 yards.  I like Roethlisberger’s chances of replicating that today.  I’m going with the more side as 251 is a number he’s hit 5 out of 9 games this season. 

Chris Godwin vs. Indianapolis Colts (82.5 receiving yards) – Less

I’ve already highlighted that I think Brady gets to this 316 yards this weekend.  If he does, Godwin will be a reason why.  Godwin has 4 games this season in which he’s been targeted at least 10 times.  While I expect Godwin to get his looks this weekend, I don’t think he gets the magical number of 83 yards. 

It’s a number he’s only hit 3 times this season.  With guys like Gronkowski back in the mix, Brady has his full array of weapons now.  There’s just too many weapons in this offense for Godwin to get up to his target today.  I’m going w/ the Less side of this one.

Diontae Johnson vs. Cincinnati Bengals (6.5 receptions) – More

In back to back weeks Johnson has seen 13 targets and had 7 receptions in both of the games.  He’s seen more than 10 targets 7 out of the 9 games he’s played this weekend.  In what’s expected to be a close game this weekend, I expect Big Ben to continue to look Johnson’s way.  With Johnson such a focal point of this offense, I think this 6.5 receptions number is going to be easy for Johnson this weekend.  He’s hit the number in all but 3 games this season.  I’m on the More side of this one.

Good luck and hope you cash!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! ! 

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Today we have a solid slate of football.  As is tradition, we have a 3 game thanksgiving slate.  The darling of the day appears to be the Dallas/Las Vegas game as it has a 51 projected total. Below you’ll find my top picks on MKF.

More or Less – 3.6x Payout

Josh Allen vs. New Orleans – 265.5 Yards

Saints have shown the propensity to give up some big games this season as they’ve given up over 265 yards passing 5 times this season.  When doing my research for this, I automatically threw out their last game against the Eagles as they only gave up 147 yards but that was against a team that runs a 70/30 run/pass split.  

Bills are in must win mode now.  They’re a half game back of the Patriots and can’t afford to lose this game.  If they are going to win, they need a vintage game from Josh Allen.  You know, one of those 300+ passing games with multiple touchdowns.  Allen has gotten to the 266 yard mark a handful of times this season and he does it again today.

Derek Carr vs. Dallas Cowboys – 260.5 Yards

If you would have asked me if Carr could get to this number earlier in the season it would have been an easy yes for me.  Over the first 5 weeks of the season the Cowboys gave up more than 290 yards passing in each game.  However, over the last few weeks they’ve tightened things up a bit.  The most they’ve given up over their past 5 games is 260 yards which was last week against Mahomes and the Chiefs. 

Carr himself has hit this number 70% of the time this season.  Most recently in week 10 against the Chiefs.  I personally think this is going to be a tough matchup for Carr today and he struggles in the air.  The Cowboys are going to be extra motivated to play today after a tough loss this past weekend.  I’m going w/ the under on this one. 

Rapid Fire – 3x Payout

Josh Allen vs. Derek Carr (+5.5 yards)

I’ve already highlighted the two of these guys in the More or Less section.  Even with the extra 5.5 yards Allen should have a better game than Carr today.  I’m choosing Allen over Carr.

Stefon Diggs vs. Darren Waller (+11.5 yards)

With my expectation that Allen has a great game today comes the expectation that Diggs follows suit.  Diggs is Allen’s main target. Over the past 4 weeks Diggs has been targeted on average more than 9 times per game. 

During that stretch he also has a game of 162 yards.  While I don’t think he gets to 162 yards today, I do expect him to get over the century mark.  On the defensive side, the Saints have really squeezed receivers of late. In the last 6 weeks they’ve allowed more than 190 yards receiving to wide receivers only once.  

Switching over to Waller he is essentially the Raiders offense.  When he’s in the lineup he is the main target for Derek Carr.  While I don’t think that Carr has a great day, I do think that Carr does enough with Waller for him to be a top offensive star on the day.  We’ve seen Carr have subpar games but for Waller to do well in those. 

Last week is a prime example.  Carr only threw for 215 yards last week against the Bengals.  116 yards of those yards went to Waller.  Cowboys have given up some big yardage games to tight ends this season and they should do it again today.  My pick here is Waller, especially given the extra 11.5 yards.  

Good luck and hope you cash!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! ! 

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Win Daily Sports is proudly partnered with Monkey Knife Fight. MKF is offering you a FREE Win Daily Gold membership for three months ($150 value) simply for making your first deposit on Monkey Knife Fight. And if free gold isn’t attractive enough, they’re also offering a 100% match bonus up to $100 when you use promo code WINDAILY.

Today I’ll be highlighting one of my favorite contests on MKF, the Touchdown Dance.  This Sunday MKF is running a special contest where if you play in a $5+ Touchdown Dance contest and all 3 of your players score a touchdown you get share of the jackpot.  Today’s jackpot is $5,000! 

Let’s dig in and see if we can find some touchdowns!

Touchdown Dance

Jonathan Taylor vs. Buffalo Bills

Jonathan Taylor is quickly becoming a top back in the league.  He’s rushed for over 100 yards in 5 out of the last 7 weeks and has rushing touchdowns in all 7 of those games.  After a solid rookie season last year in which he rushed for over 1,100 yards, he’s well on pace to crush that number this year as he’s already over 900 yards through 10 weeks.  He is the Colts offense at this point. 

The match up this weekend is a tough one for Taylor. There’s no sugar coating it.  However, if the Colts have any chance of keeping this one close they’ll need a solid game out of Taylor.   Confidence Level – High

Myles Gaskin vs. New York Jets

This weekend we get to see what wins out.  Bad Defense or Bad Running Back.  I was a little harsh there.  Myles Gaskin isn’t a bad running back.  He’s just not very good.  That said, no team in either conference has given up more rushing touchdowns than the New York Jets.  They’ve given up 17 of them this year.  The next closest team is the Chargers at 12.  They haven’t had a game w/out giving up a rushing touchdown since week 1. 

Another factor leading me down the Gaskin rabbit hole is that he’s still the main guy in the red zone.  Although he had a goose egg in the red zone against the bills in week 8, he saw 5 red zone attempts in week 7, 3 in week 9, and 4 in week 10.  Those attempts are absolute gold and while he hasn’t had much success in converting those into touchdowns, he’s facing as easy of an opponent as possible this weekend.  Confidence Level – It’s Gaskin so not overly high, but high.

Nick Chubb vs. Detroit Lions

With Nick Chubb suiting up this weekend vs. Detroit, I’m all in on him getting a touchdown.  The Lions, similar to the Jets, are one of the worst teams against running backs.  There are 3 teams that have given up more than 10 rushing touchdowns this season and I’ve already highlighted the other 2 in the Gaskin section.  Lions are team number 3 as they’ve given up 10 rushing touchdowns. 

If he’s 100% over his spat with Covid, he should be coming into this game with fresh legs.  Chubb has been extremely solid when on the field this season.  He’s only had one game under 80 yards and has multiple 100 yard rushing games.  He also has 6 rushing touchdowns through 7 games played.  Chubb stands an excellent chance to add to that number if he plays.  Confidence Level – High

Touchdown Dance Wrap Up

Other guys I also like this weekend are AJ Dillon vs. a suspect Vikings D and either D’Onta Foreman or Adrian Peterson. 

Good luck and hope to share the $5k with you!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! ! 

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Win Daily Sports is proudly partnered with Monkey Knife Fight. MKF is offering you a FREE Win Daily Gold membership for three months ($150 value) simply for making your first deposit on Monkey Knife Fight. And if free gold isn’t attractive enough, they’re also offering a 100% match bonus up to $100 when you use promo code WINDAILY.

New England Patriots at Atlanta Falcons

Thursday night football brings us to Atlanta for a matchup between the New England Patriots (6-4) and Atlanta Falcons (4-5).  The Patriots are coming into this Thursday night match up riding a 4 game winning streak.  Mac Jones has really come into his own during that stretch.  The Falcons on the other hand are reeling following a brutal 43-3 loss to the Dallas Cowboys.  They look to get back on track tonight but the matchup for them will be super tough.

More or Less – 3.6x Payout

Matt Ryan – 251.5 Passing Yards – More

I expect the Falcons to playing from behind most of this game tonight.  And because of that, they will more than likely be forced to throw the ball a ton tonight.  If we first take a look at Ryan’s season, he’s hit 252 passing yards in all but 4 games this season.  The bad thing for us is that half of those games have come in the last 3 weeks. 

Last week was Ryan’s worst game of the season, throwing for only 117 yards and 2 picks.  He’s alternated good and back weeks over the past month.  Ryan is due for his bounce back game here.

If we switch gears and take a look at the Patriots defense we can see that it’s been 4 weeks since they gave up at least 252 passing yards.  However, it’s also been a few weeks since the Patriots have actually faced a competent QB.  Last weekend Casey Keenum took the majority of the snaps after Mayfield was hurt, the weekend before that they faced Sam Darnold. We’re not talking about MVP caliber quarterbacks. 

My gut here is telling me that Matt Ryan gets back on track and does his best to keep the Falcons in this one in front of the home crowd.  I’m going with the ‘More’.

Mac Jones – 245.5 Passing Yards – Less

While the Falcons defense against the pass has been atrocious this year, I just don’t think the Mac Jones will need to throw the ball enough tonight to get to his target of 246 yards.  If we look at this Jones season as a whole he’s only reached this number 4 times.  During their 4 game winning streak he’s only reached 246 once and that was against the Jets 4 weeks ago. 

The Patriots should be up early in this one and if they are I can see them just funneling the ball to Stevenson the majority of the game.  He had a breakout game last weekend and if this one gets out of hand, he’ll have a chance to replicate his productivity from last weekend.  I’m going w/ the ‘Less’ on Mac Jones. 

Rapid Fire – 3x Payout

Matt Ryan vs. Mac Jones (+6.5)

In the more or less section I’ve highlighted my thoughts on both quarterbacks tonight.  My gut is telling me we’re going to see very different playbooks from both teams tonight.  Ryan will be forced to throw the ball often tonight while Mac Jones and his teammates should be up most of the game and will rely on the run.  In the end, Ryan should get at least 6.5 more passing yards than Mac Jones.

Kyle Pitts vs. Jakobi Meyers (+10.5)

This is a tougher one to pick.  If the Falcons have any hope of winning this one, or just keeping it close they’re going to need to the tandem of Ryan and Pitts to be productive.  The volume for Pitts has been there as he’s been targeted at least 6 times in his last 8 games.  That said, the last few weeks haven’t been the greatest for Pitts as he’s failed to reach 100 receiving yards in each of the last 3 weeks. 

The matchup tonight screams that Pitts will struggle.  The Patriots have been one of the best teams against tight ends all season.  They’ve given up more than 55 yards receiving to tight ends just once this season.  While Pitts isn’t a normal tight end, I do think tonight will be a struggle for him against a solid Patriots defense.  

In Meyers we’re dealing with someone who has been pretty consistent for the most part this season.  What we can expect tonight from Meyers is 45-50 yards receiving.  If we tack on the additional 10.5 bonus we can expect him to get near 60 yards tonight.  With my expectation that Pitts will struggle tonight, the extra 10.5 yards that Meyers will get tonight has me picking him in this match up.  Meyers for the win tonight. 

Good Luck tonight and hope to see you cash!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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Win Daily Sports is proudly partnered with Monkey Knife Fight. MKF is offering you a FREE Win Daily Gold membership for three months ($150 value) simply for making your first deposit on Monkey Knife Fight. And if free gold isn’t attractive enough, they’re also offering a 100% match bonus up to $100 when you use promo code WINDAILY.

Thursday night football brings us to sunny Miami for a match up between my hometown Baltimore Ravens (6-2) and the Miami Dolphins (2-7).  Both of these teams are on opposite ends of the spectrum in terms of the standings as the Ravens are currently in first in the AFC North while the Dolphins are in dead last in the AFC East.  Yes, even behind the New York Jets.  The Dolphins will more than likely be without their starter in Tua Tagovailoa but as we’ve seen this season, Jacoby Brissett has been able to fill in admirably.  Well sometimes. 

With that said, lets dig in!

More or Less

Lamar Jackson – 235.5 Passing Yards – More

While I expect the Ravens to get up early and stay up, this game has the makings of a celling type game for Lamar Jackson.  Jackson grew up less than an hour from Miami and will surely be extra motivated in what should be a ton of family and friends. 

His main counterpart, Marquise Brown, is also a South Florida native who grew up about 30 minutes from Miami.  I anticipate Jackson going to Brown early and often in this one.  Jackson has had only 2 games this season where he’s had less than 236 yards passing, with one of those games being right at 235.  Look for Jackson to have a monster game tonight.

Jacoby Brissett – 230.5 Passing Yards – Less

The Ravens are a touchdown favorite tonight on the road and if the game script goes to plan, they’ll be up early in this game. In theory that would mean Brissett will be throwing often in this one.  Although the Ravens defense has looked suspect at times this year, they looked solid last week against the Vikings.  Cousins ended up with less than 200 yards passing.  I just don’t see Brissett being able to solve this defense tonight. 

Rapid Fire

Lamar Jackson vs. Jacoby Brissett (+5.5)

I’ve already highlighted above that I think that Brissett struggles tonight against a defense that played much better last week.  Jackson will be extra motivated tonight playing in a city that he was close to growing up.  I’m picking Lamar Jackson here, even with the extra 5.5 yards Brissett would get.

Myles Gaskin vs. Devonta Freeman (+2.5)

With my expectation that Brissett struggles tonight, I expect that the Dolphins will run and find some success doing it.  In 4 out of the last 5 weeks the Ravens have given up more than 100 yards rushing.  While Gaskin hasn’t really had much success on the ground this season, the Ravens haven’t proven they can stop anyone on the ground. 

If we look on the other side of the game we have a running back that nearly doubled his season output in rushing yards last weekend in Freeman. He’s been a part time back for the majority of the year.  The Dolphins have progressively gotten better against the run over the course of the season.  To start the year they gave up over 100 yards rushing in weeks 1-5.  Since then, they haven’t given up more than 75 yards rushing in a game.  If the Ravens have success on the ground tonight it will be from Lamar Jackson and not Devonta Freeman.  I’m picking Myles Gaskin in this one.

Summary

This should be a fun game tonight. Lamar Jackson has been his best in prime time this season. Look for him to have one of his monster games in the air and on the ground tonight.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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Win Daily Sports is proudly partnered with Monkey Knife Fight. MKF is offering you a FREE Win Daily Gold membership for three months ($90 value) simply for making your first deposit on Monkey Knife Fight. And if free gold isn’t attractive enough, they’re also offering a 100% match bonus up to $100 when you use promo code WINDAILY.

Today I’ll be highlighting one of my favorite contests on MKF, the Home Run Blast.  Every Friday night MKF runs a special contest where if you play in a $5+ Home Run Blast contest and all 3 of your batters hit a home run you get a share of the jackpot.  Tonight’s jackpot is $25,000! 

With that said, lets dig in and see where we can find some long balls!

Home Run Blast

Joey Gallo vs. Zach Plesac

Joe Gallo is pretty hot right now and I want to make sure to take advantage of his streak.  Over the last week he has 4 homers and 91% fly ball rate.  His launch angle is tailored to home runs right now.  Looking back 30 days Gallo has a .373 ISO vs. righties and he gets to take on a very beatable righty in Zach Plesac.

Plesac tends to give up more fly balls to lefties as over the last 30 days his fly ball rate is 46% against them vs. just 39% for righties.  Love the spot tonight for Gallo and look for him to take Plesac deep into the right field seats at Yankee Stadium.  Confidence Level – High

Hunter Renfroe vs. Keegan Akin

Over the last 30 days Hunter Renfro has been absolutely destroying left handed pitching.  He owns a .462 ISO and a .511 wOBA over since mid-August.  His average distance over that stretch is an insane 343 feet.  He gets a great match up tonight against a pitcher in Akin who is due for some nasty regression. 

His xFIP is almost 2 runs higher than his ERA.  This has been mostly due to some luck.  On balls in play (this excludes homers) hitters have just a .145 average.  If we add in that his fly ball rate over the last month is nearly 55% and he’s given up 9 barrels we can decipher that hitters ‘are just missing it’ against him.  I highly doubt that Renfroe misses one tonight.  The only thing that he may miss is a windshield on Lansdowne Street when he takes one over the green monster tonight.  Confidence Level – Very High

Jesus Sanchez vs. Will Crowe

Sanchez is one of the hottest hitters in the game right now.  Over the last week he has 5 homers, 7 barrels, a .568 wOBA, and a 1.426 OPS.  That OPS Is just bonkers.  This is a spot for him tonight that should have him continue his hot streak at the plate.  He gets a very soft match up in Will Crowe who has a 6.02 xFIP over the last month. 

Crowe’s been especially bad against lefties as he’s giving up a .302 ISO to them.  He’s going to throw his change up about 25% of the time tonight to Sanchez and if he leaves one of those over the plate, it’s gone.  Sanchez owns a .450 ISO against change ups coming from righties.  He loves the pitch and I love him for a homer tonight.  Confidence Level – High

Home Run Blast Wrap Up

Tonight my pool will consist of these 3 batters.  These three all stand a solid chance to homer.  They match up great w/ the pitcher.  Other guys I also love to homer tonight are Bryce Harper vs. Taijuan Walker, Luis Robert vs. Taylor Hearn, and Daniel Vogelbach vs. Zach Davies. 

Good luck and hope to share the jackpot with you! 

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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Win Daily Sports is proudly partnered with Monkey Knife Fight. MKF is offering you a FREE Win Daily Gold membership for three months ($90 value) simply for making your first deposit on Monkey Knife Fight. And if free gold isn’t attractive enough, they’re also offering a 100% match bonus up to $100 when you use promo code WINDAILY.

Today I’ll be highlighting one of my favorite contests on MKF, the Home Run Blast.  Every Friday night MKF runs a special contest where if you play in a $5+ Home Run Blast contest and all 3 of your batters hit a home run you get a share of the jackpot.  Tonight’s jackpot is $25,000! 

With that said, lets dig in and see where we can find some long balls!

Home Run Blast

Bo Bichette vs. Sean Manaea

Sean Manaea has had an extremely rough last month.  Over the last 30 days he’s sporting a 5.13 xFIP and a ton of hard contact at 37%.  The majority of the damage coming against him has been coming from the batters from the right side of the plate.  They have a .408 ISO and a .513 wOBA against him.  Just awful numbers. 

In his last 15 innings of work he’s given up 7 homers.  That’s a pretty torrid pace and something we’ll want to take advantage of tonight.  The guy I’m going to use from the Blue Jays is Mr. Bo Bichette.  Over the last month, and really season, he’s been great against lefties.  He has a .222 ISO against them with a .373 wOBA.  His average air distance is an astonishing 343 feet. 

Another reason I love Bichette tonight is he’s been great against sinkers this year.  Manaea throws his almost 60% of the time and Bichette has a slugging % of .570 against them this year.  Love his chances of taking Manaea deep tonight.  Confidence Level – High

Luke Voit vs. John Means

Means has really been a different pitcher since coming back from injury.  His biggest struggles since returning have come against righties. They have a .391 ISO and a .453 wOBA against him over the last month.  He’s been giving up way too many fly balls to them with a 46% fly ball rate.  I’m going to attack him w/ a player that’s been hot over the past month. 

Voit has a .318 ISO against lefties in August with a .470 wOBA.  He’s also been getting the ball in the air against them w/ a 53% fly ball rate and an average air distance of 386 feet.  He should have no trouble with Means fastball as he’s been crushing fastballs all year.  There’s a solid chance of Voit taking a Means pitching into the left field stands of Yankee Stadium tonight.  Confidence Level – High

Austin Meadows vs. Randy Dobnak

Dobnak makes his first appearance in the Majors since mid-June and boy does he wish he was seeing a different opponent.  This could not be a worse match up for him as he throws a pitch that the Rays excel at, the Sinker.  First lets start w/ why I’m picking on Dobnak. 

The former Lyft driver has had a rough year, especially against lefties.  On the year lefties have a .324 ISO against him and a .456 wOBA.  Really bad numbers from him.  Rays have a handful of lefties but my focus is going to be Austin Meadows. 

One of the pitches that Meadows excels the most at hitting is the sinker.  On the year he has a .662 slugging %.  It’s a pitch he loves to hit.  The good thing for him is that Dobnak’s sinker has not been good.  Batters have a near 60% hard hit rate against it and a .467 slugging %.  I just don’t see how Meadows doesn’t take Dobnak deep tonight.  Confidence Level – High

Home Run Blast Wrap Up

Tonight my pool will consist of these 3 batters but their teammates stand just as good a chance of homering as they do.  For the Blue Jays, I also love Teoscar Hernandez and George Springer.  Yankees I also love Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge.  Lastly, Brandon Lowe of the Rays should also stand a good chance at a homer.  

Good luck and hope to share the jackpot with you! 

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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Win Daily Sports is proudly partnered with Monkey Knife Fight. MKF is offering you a FREE Win Daily Gold membership for three months ($90 value) simply for making your first deposit on Monkey Knife Fight. And if free gold isn’t attractive enough, they’re also offering a 100% match bonus up to $100 when you use promo code WINDAILY.

Today I’ll be highlighting one of my favorite contests on MKF, the Home Run Blast.  Every Friday night MKF runs a special contest where if you play in a $5+ Home Run Blast contest and all 3 of your batters hit a home run you get a share of the jackpot.  Tonight’s jackpot is $25,000! 

With that said, lets dig in and see where we can find some long balls!

Home Run Blast

Jorge Soler vs. Keegan Akin

My first pick brings us to Camden Yards.  We have Keegan Akin on the hill for the Orioles and it’s been a struggle for him this season.  Over the last 30 days it’s been even worse as he has a 6.73 xFIP and is giving up a 50% fly ball rate. 

Fly balls in the summer in Camden are not a good combo.  The guy that I’m going to attack Akin with is Jorge Soler.  Over the last 30 days Soler has been crushing lefties.  He has a .619 ISO and .468 wOBA.  Those are just insane numbers. 

If we look at pitch data Soler should see a ton of fastballs this year.  On the year he’s crushing them.  He has a .500 slugging % and 53% hard hit rate against fastballs.  Look for him to drop one into the left field stand later tonight.  Confidence Level  – High

Teoscar Hernandez vs. Tyler Alexander

Whether it’s dfs or MKF Alexander is a favorite of mine to pick on.  He’s just someone that gives up a ton of hard contact and fly balls.  Those are 2 things I look at the most when looking for home runs.  He checks off all the boxes. 

Over the past month he’s been getting tagged for a 48% fly ball rate and 49% hard hit rate.  Just really poor performance from Alexander.  We want to attack Alexander with righties and the guy I will use tonight is Hernandez. 

He has a .737 ISO against lefties over the past month with a .718 wOBA.   His average exit velocity is almost 100 mph with a distance of around 380 feet.  Hernandez is crushing lefties and he should continue the trend tonight.  Confidence Level – High

Avisail Garcia vs. Patrick Corbin

Corbin is another one of my favorite targets.  In his last 28 innings of work he’s given up 10 homers.  Giving up a homer at that pace is really an accomplishment that speaks for itself.  Corbin has very clear splits. 

He’s dominant against lefties with a .042 ISO.  Against righties it’s a whole different story.  Righties have a .391 wOBA and .385 ISO against him.  Garcia is my target here.  He’s been crushing lefties over the last month and he also homered twice Wednesday night.  He’s dialed in.  Over the past month he has a .528 wOBA against lefties.  No reason to think that Corbin will slow him down.  Confidence Level – High

Home Run Blast Wrap Up

Tonight my pool will consist of these 3 batters I just mentioned, but know that the environment for their teammates is just as good.  Righties vs. Akin, righties vs. Alexander, and righties vs. Corbin.  

Good luck and hope to share the jackpot with you! 

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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Win Daily Sports is proudly partnered with Monkey Knife Fight. MKF is offering you a FREE Win Daily Gold membership for three months ($90 value) simply for making your first deposit on Monkey Knife Fight. And if free gold isn’t attractive enough, they’re also offering a 100% match bonus up to $100 when you use promo code WINDAILY.

Today I’ll be highlighting one of my favorite contests on MKF, the Home Run Blast.  Every Friday night MKF runs a special contest where if you play in a $5+ Home Run Blast contest and all 3 of your batters hit a home run you get a share of the jackpot.  Tonight’s jackpot is $25,000! 

With that said, lets dig in and see where we can find some long balls!

Home Run Blast

Brandon Lowe/Austin Meadows vs. Michael Pineda

Pineda is someone that has very clear splits.  Against righties he’s really able to limit power because he induces a whole lot of ground balls.  Against lefties it’s a whole different story.  His fly ball rate and hard hit rate both jump to 42%.  Lefties have a .243 ISO and .336 wOBA against him this year.  Tonight he’s going to have his hands full with a lineup full of lefties. 

There are two guys on the Rays that should go yard tonight, Brandon Lowe and Austin Meadows.  If we look at pitch mix both of these guys are going to see a heavy amount of low 90’s fastballs.   Let’s start with Austin Meadows.  He has a near .700 ISO against this pitch from righties over the past few years.  Lowe, while not as exaggerated as Meadows, has a .250 ISO with an average distance of 322 feet.  Both guys stand a great chance to hit a long one tonight.  Confidence Level – High

Jose Ramirez/Franmil Reyes vs. Tyler Alexander

My next targets bring us to Detroit with the Cleveland Indians facing off against Tyler Alexander.  Alexander is another guy that has very clear splits.  He’s actually pretty dominant against lefties with just a .241 wOBA against them this year. 

Righties are a whole different story.  Batters from the right side have a .354 wOBA and .214 ISO against him this year.  They hit the ball significantly harder against him.  Alexander’s pitch of choice to righties is his cutter.  This is a pitch that Ramirez absolutely destroys from lefties. 

Over the last few years Ramirez has a .424 ISO with an average distance of 337 feet to this pitch type.  Reyes is no slouch against this pitch either.  He has an average exit velocity of 96 mph and an average distance of 311 feet.  Confidence Level – High

Bryce Harper vs. Tyler Mahle

It’s going to be hot in Philly tonight.  When it’s hot in Citizens the ball go far.  And the ball it will be traveling far tonight off the bat of Bryce Harper.  On the year Harper has a .345 ISO and .439 wOBA against righties.  He’s making an extremely strong case for MVP and if I had to guess, he’s the front runner right now. 

He’s going to be seeing a mid 90’s fastball from Mahle tonight and it’s a pitch he should not have any issues with.  He owns a .333 ISO and .463 wOBA against this type of pitcher over the least several years.  While Mahle isn’t a bad pitcher he is prone to the home run ball with 6 in his last 28 innings of work.  Tonight, Harper will make it 7 as he adds to Mahle’s monthly total.  Confidence Level – Highish

Home Run Blast Wrap Up

Tonight my pool will consist of the 5 batters I just mentioned, with Ramirez, Meadows, and Harper my favorite of the bunch. 

Good luck and hope to share the jackpot with you! 

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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