The second Saturday of the MLB season is here, and we are ready to cash in to start off the weekend! There are two slates, one starting at 4:05 ET, and the other starting at 7:05 ET. The afternoon slate looks loaded with solid arms, while the night slate looks primed for offense. There are plenty of targets on both slates, so I’ll highlight some of my favorites from each!
I’ll go ahead and say it. Jeffrey Springs is my favorite pitcher that doesn’t play for my Cincinnati Reds. Not only does he have a phenomenal name (my son is named Jeffrey), but this kid is tremendously talented. His dominance was on full display in his 2023 debut, as he no-hit the Tigers for 6 innings with TWELVE punchouts and just one walk.
There are two slates for Saturday, and Springs is on the slate that starts at 4:05 ET. He alone is a reason to play this slate. Oakland has an offense that may legitimately be worse than some AAA lineups. This is a match made in heaven.
This is no fluke either, as Springs posted a 9.68 K/9, 2.06 BB/9, and 3.29 xFIP. He is the real deal and an absolute lock for me on the afternoon slate.
It may be too soon to say that “Thor” is back to his old ways, but he looked sharp in the opener. He allowed just four hits and a single earned run over six innings with a 6/0 K/BB against these same D-Backs. He is always an easy target for stolen bases, so don’t forget to grab some shares of Corbin Carroll, Jake McCarthy, and anyone who has legs and can get on base.
That said, Syndergaard had success against this lineup regardless last time out, and was efficient with just 78 pitches. This is a below average lineup and one that he can have plenty of success against once again. Let’s see if he can continue to trend upward on his strikeouts. He had just a 6.35 K/9 in 2022, although the rest of his peripheral stats were solid (2.07 BB/9, 0.94 BB/9, 4.28 xFIP).
Steele is a player I get excited to roster in DFS. The only thing that could get me away from rostering him would be to find out that the winds are headed out in Wrigley. That said, among pitchers on Saturday’s slate of games, Steele allowed the second-lowest HardHit% of everyone in 2022 (33.3).
He has elite upside, and the only issue he runs into is his command (3.78 BB/9 in 2022). That may not be an issue against Texas, as they rank 24th in MLB so far in 2023 with just a 6.9% walk rate as a team. He does a great job of keeping the ball in the park as well, allowing just 0.61 HR/9 in 2022. Texas has some big bats in its lineup, and he would have the platoon advantage against two of them (Corey Seager and Nate Lowe).
I feel like Zach Davies has been pitching forever, and I’m completely fine with it. Somehow he is just 30. He hands up home runs like those little pamphlets you get on the Vegas Strip. You know the ones I’m talking about. Nobody wants those, but everyone DOES want home runs in their lineups.
Enter the powerful Los Angeles Dodgers lineup. Davies served up 1.44 HR/9 in 2022, and that was on the heels of a 1.52 mark in 2021. Another good thing to note is that he doesn’t miss bats (6.83 K/9), but he DOES miss the strike zone (3.48 and 4.56 BB/9 the last two seasons).
Now we get the likes of Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, JD Martinez, Will Smith, Max Muncy, Trayce Thompson against him. There should be ducks on the pond as long as Davies lasts in this one. Bombs away in Arizona.
Irvin actually had a decent season in 2022 with Oakland, but he is a contact lefty facing a very powerful Yankee lineup. That’s a recipe for disaster in my family cookbook. He served up a 1.24 HR/9 in 2022, including 20 HR to RHB. Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton are licking their chops awaiting their matchup with Irvin.
Don’t forget about the likes of Gleyber Torres, Orlando Cabrera, and the young superstar Anthony Volpe from the right side. Anthony Rizzo has hit lefties well in his career as well. The Bronx Bombers could have a big night on Saturday.
The knock on Berries used to be that he couldn’t pitch on the road, but now it seems like he just can’t pitch well anywhere. He got knocked around in his first start, serving up eight earned runs on nine hits with a 7/2 K/BB. He had some poor batted ball luck, but I’m still not a believer.
The Angels will likely find many ways to disappoint in what may be the final year of the Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani duo, but I don’t think they will on Saturday.
Taylor Ward, Hunter Renfroe, and the hot-hitting Logan O’Hoppe jump off the page at me here as well. I’m down for a full stack here at what should be low ownership.
The afternoon slate looks like a blast, and I’m locking in Springs once again. I’ll be looking to fit as many Dodgers and Yankees into my lineups as well. Let’s make some cash! I will find myself some Coors exposure against Gomber in particular, we could see some fireworks out in Denver too!
Find the team in the Discord and let’s chat about some plays!
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
Check me out on Twitter @BigItaly42 and let me know who you are playing tonight! Always around to talk some MLB!
Thursday’s MLB slate is a strange and wet one. Most games are during the day, with a few sprinkled in at night. The main slate starts at 1:10 PM Eastern, with a few official rainouts already. Let’s cook up some winners here!
This one seems like a no-brainer on this slate. The Royals have been absolutely lost at the plate, and are coming off their THIRD shutout loss in just six games this season. The have scored just one run in the last two games…I could go on forever. This lineup has plenty of youth and talent, but this isn’t the spot to overthink your SP1.
Gausman was solid in his 2023 debut, firing six scoreless innings, scattering eight hits and striking out seven with just a single walk. He did that to a Cardinals offense that is loaded. If I’m the Royals, I would have wished for a rainout here to save some face. Gausman is a lock for me on this small slate. I’ll differentiate elsewhere.
I went after Lynn with a low-owned stack in his first start…and it did not go particularly well. Considering our other options on this slate, Lynn is another easy choice. His command was poor in his first start, walking four batters across 5.2 innings, but with limited options, he is a fine choice.
I’m not a believer in this Giants lineup, and they have been inconsistent to say the least. They are right behind the Royals with two shutout losses themselves. The main concern for me here is that Lynn has always had pronounced splits against LHB. This Giants lineup will likely have 5-6 lefties in it, which could spell trouble for Lynn. I expect a left-heavy lineup this afternoon, and conversely will be playing a stack or two against him for some leverage.
I have zero interest in rostering the home run machine that is Josiah Gray (more on him soon), and I’m not a fan of Chris Sale at this stage. Jordan Lyles gets the powerful Blue Jays lineup…so I’m shooting my shot here with Turnbull.
He was awful in his first start this season, going just 2.1 innings and allowing seven ER on eight hits and three free passes. That said, if you’re a believer in this Red Sox lineup, that makes one of us. They just got finished embarrassing themselves against the Pittsburgh Pirates in a home sweep. They scored a total of three runs in the final 26 innings of the series.
Aside from Devers and, this is a lineup that is going to be inconsistent this season. I love Triston Casas, I think Yoshida will have an impact as well…but the rest? It’s like an old folks’ home in Boston’s lineup, and with a 1:10 first pitch, they will be rushing to hit the Country Kitchen buffet by 4:30. Fortunately, the new pitch clock should save them a few minutes.
Back to Turnbull. He isn’t a pitcher who will dominate you, but he does a fantastic job of keeping the ball in the park. He has allowed just four home runs since the beginning of 2021 (109 IP). Comerica Park is a pitcher’s best friend, and if this Boston team isn’t finding the outfield seats, it may be a long day. I’ll be pairing him with Gausman today and hoping he can rack up 5-6 Ks against a lineup of guys who may be grandfathers soon.
On to the exciting news. My favorite pitcher to pick on is BACKKKKKKK! Josiah Gray is the KING…at giving up home runs at an unprecedented rate. He made us proud last time out, serving up three bombs to the Braves. Now he gets the pleasure of facing the Rockies in the first Coors Field game of the 2023 season.
CJ Cron needs to be one of the first batters you click into your lineup today. He has been on fire in the early part of 2023, and is the best bet to go yard early. Kris Bryant is a guy that seems to be overlooked in this weak Rockies lineup. Let’s be honest here, these may be two of the worst teams in baseball, which makes this Coors series even more exciting. I like Charlie Blackmon here as well, and I’ll be filling in from both sides once lineups are released.
Let’s hope the Rockies don’t wait until after 1:10 to release their lineup card, but I’m betting they will.
We are back to the well on targeting Kyle Freeland, and I’m excited about it. His home/road splits are atrocious, but that is generally how it goes for Rockies pitchers. In the (un)friendly confines of Coors Field in 2022, Freeland allowed the following:
.303 BAA, .375 wOBA, 59/25 K/BB, 31 2B, 7 3B, 11 HR…in just 87 innings. I know how bad this Washington lineup is, but today I don’t care. They are far too cheap for this situation. A game total of 11 runs, two bad pitchers on the mound in Coors? You can’t script it much better than this.
Keibert Ruiz, Joey Meneses, Lane Thomas, Victor Robles, Dom Smith, you name it. I’ll be loading up on cheap bats from the Nationals to fill out my lineups.
Are the Detroit Tigers bad? Yes. Do I also believe that Chris Sale is no longer Chris Sale? Also yes. On a short slate like this one, a pivot stack against Sale with a bad lineup should provide a lot of leverage. I won’t be playing Sale, and I’m not sure what spot I would be playing him.
Miguel Cabrera is basically minimum salary. Javier Baez is awful right now, but he has the upside for cheap in this matchup. Spencer Torkelson is coming off a few big games early. Riley Greene is off to a great start to the season. You’re going to want Gausman and Coors bats. The Tigers cheap bats (Torkelson is $2100 on DraftKings and $2400 on FanDuel) are the key to unlocking that upside for me today. Let’s roll!
This is an ugly slate, but one I’m a big fan of at first glance. Give me all the Coors and the Tigers!
Find the team in the Discord and let’s chat about some plays!
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
Check me out on Twitter @BigItaly42 and let me know who you are playing tonight! Always around to talk some MLB!
Welcome to Monday edition of Aces and Bases for the 2023 season, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.
Tonight we have a nice-sized 11-game slate of MLB DFS to navigate through. We’re not quite through the first rotation of most team’s staff. That means pitching will be kind of blah tonight as we are essentially at the back end of most rotations. The good is that it means plenty of offense. The bad, is that it means pitching will be really tough to nail down.
Let’s dig and make some money!
The Houston Astros will turn the ball over to top prospect Hunter Brown tonight. In a small cup of tea last year, Brown was really good. In his 20 innings of work, Brown struck out 27.5% of the batters he faced and did a nice job of limiting hard contact as hitters had a sub-30 % hard-hit rate vs. him. While we can’t expect him to continue with the .89 ERA that he had last year, he did pitch to an xFIP under 3 last season. Brown also had a phenomenal chase rate of nearly 32% last season. Of all the pitchers throwing today, no one outside of Matthew Boyd and his 13 innings of work last year had more hitters chasing.
This is just not a good Tigers lineup and one that Brown should easily navigate through. Through the first 3 games of the season, this Tigers lineup has scored just 3 runs. Not 4, not 5, not 6, just 3 runs. They are awful and I feel bad that Miguel Cabrera’s last season in baseball will be part of this atrocious lineup. Houston and Brown are huge favorites tonight. While nothing is guaranteed, feel confident throwing out Brown tonight.
Yes, pitching is so bad that the next pitcher I’m recommending is Drew Rasmussen. Rasmussen isn’t actually that bad of a pitcher, he’s actually pretty good. He just doesn’t strike many out. He had a K rate in 2022 of just over 21%. That’s not ideal for MLB DFS as K’s are king. That said, pitching is bad tonight and the pitchers that actually did have high K rates last year are not in good matchups.
While Rasmussen won’t get many K’s tonight, he should be able to do a great of limiting damage. This Nationals lineup has been bad to start the year. Through their first 3 games, they’ve scored just 7 runs for an average of just 2 per game. Tampa is one of the bigger favorites on the board. The K’s won’t be there for him tonight, but Rasmussen should be able to go long enough in this one to get the W and pay off his $8.1k DK salary tonight.
This is a high-risk/potentially high-reward pick. Nestor Cortes had by far the best season of his career in 2022. He set career highs in wins, innings pitched, ERA, and xFIP. Basically any meaningful stat, Cortes improved last year. He does a great job of throwing hitters off with his quirky mechanics.
This is a really good Phillies lineup, but not quite the lineup they expected to have to start the year. Harper is out recovering from TJ surgery and Hoskins is out for the year after tearing his ACL at the end of Spring Training. Cortes should be able to neutralize Schwarber tonight as he’s absolutely dominant vs. lefties. This is low-key a really good spot for Cortes and he should be able to give the Phillies hitters a ton of fits tonight. He’s risky, but could potentially be the highest-scoring pitcher on the night.
The Tampa Bay Rays get to take on journeyman starter Trevor Williams. Williams isn’t an awful pitcher, but he’s also not a good pitcher. He’s an average one at best and one that should struggle with this Tampa lineup tonight. Williams is a flyball pitcher and if he’s off his game just a smidge tonight, there should be some homers tonight in DC as the weather should be perfect for early April baseball.
Core: My Tampa core will be built around Wander Franco and Randy Arozarena. Franco is off to a red-hot start to the 2023 campaign. Through his first 11 AB, Franco has 7 hits. Of those 7, 4 have been for extra-base hits. This is the type of environment tonight where he should continue with this early success in the year. I also really like Aroz here. Through his first 3 games, Aroz has already scored 4 runs, while driving in 3. He’s as big of a part of this offense as anyone. These 2 guys should dominate tonight
Secondary/Value: Other guys I really like in this lineup tonight will be both Brandon and Josh Lowe, Yandy Diaz, and Jose Siri. All of these guys have been productive to start the year. Both Josh Lowe and Jose Siri make for excellent value plays as they are both under $3k on DK tonight.
The Dodgers get one of the best matchups on the board tonight. In nearly 100 innings in 2022, Feltner really struggled. Feltner’s final ERA in 2022 was pushing 6 at 5.83. While ERA isn’t an end-all, it does show that a pitcher struggled. He also gave up a massive hard-hit rate at nearly 36%. That’s one of the worst marks of anyone on the hill tonight and that says a lot considering what we’re working with. Feltner was pretty much split-neutral in 2022 so I’m not going to be overly concerned with worrying about what side of the plate to attack him with.
Core: My Core with the Dodgers tonight will be the 2 guys that hit at the top of the lineup and are 2 of the best hitters in the game, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman. Neither guy has really blown us out of the water yet, but their day is coming and that will be today in what is a cake matchup for them. Freeman is my favorite of the two though if you can only afford one of them. He gets the platoon advantage tonight and has immense upside tonight.
Secondary/Value: Other bats I like here will be Will Smith, David Peralta, and JD Martinez. Will Smith is a lot more than I normally like to spend on catchers, but he’s one of the best-hitting catchers in the game and has started out the season strong with 5 RBI and 5 hits in his first 11 AB. He also has multiple extra-base hits. Again, he’s pricey, but you could do a whole lot worse with $5k.
The Boston Red Sox offense has started out extremely strong this season. Through 3 games against the Orioles’ meager pitching staff, they were able to put up 23 runs. They’ll now get to face another below-average staff in the Pittsburgh Pirates. Expect more runs from them and expect them often. Tonight they’ll face off against Johan Oviedo. While Oviedo wasn’t awful last season, he has shown in his 2 previous stints in the bigs with the Cards that he struggles to get big leaguers out. I’m going to fully attack him tonight.
Core: My core with the Red Sox is going to be very clear. Adam Duvall, Alex Verdugo, Justin Turner, and Rafael Devers. All 4 guys are off to hot starts, with Duvall, Devers, and Turner all hitting over .400 to start the year. Outside of Devers, this stack is extremely affordable tonight. Both Turner and Duvall are under $4k tonight. They don’t get the platoon advantage, but they are near locks in my lineup.
Secondary/Value: The other 2 bats I like here will be Enrique Hernandez and Masataka Yoshida. Neither guy is a necessity, but if you can fit them in go for it as there should be some runs scored by the Red Sox tonight.
We have our first Monday slate of the year and it’s going to be a doozy. There are limited pitching options but there will be plenty of options for offense. Expect a high-scoring slate tonight.
Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
Friday night was a solid one minus a few things. Kyle Freeland tossed a gem, effectively killing Padres stacks. Hunter Gaddis actually held his own, but we got a bit of action out of the Mariners still.
Moving on to Saturday, we have a HUGE main slate starting at 2:10 ET. Lots of options to choose from, and I’m here to narrow some down for you.
Let’s crush today’s slate!
Strider was one of the most exciting young pitchers in 2022, and I’m expecting more of the same in the 2023 season. This is a Nationals lineup that is…poor. They will be a lineup I pick on quite a bit this season, and this is a prime spot for the young righty.
The Braves are listed as a -250 favorite in a game with a total of 8.5. Why is the total so high with Strider on the mound? More on that later. What DOES matter right now is that Strider was an absolute machine last season. He had a 13.81 K/9, allowed just 0.48 HR/9, allowed a .179 BAA, I could go on forever. Strider is an easy play on Saturday. He will be popular, but it’s a massive slate. I’m not worried about it.
If you haven’t seen Lodolo pitch, you are missing out. He has electric stuff, and has the strikeout upside to win you a boatload of cash. His 11.41 K/9 is second only to Strider among today’s pitchers, and the Pirates are going to have a tough time against him.
There are quite a few lefties in this Pittsburgh lineup, and Lodolo has had his way with same-handed batters. Lodolo has had some command issues at times (3 BB/9), but the upside here is massive and the matchup is solid. If he can keep the ball over the plate and dodge O’Neill Cruz’s bat, he could be among the highest scorers on the day.
There are a ton more options here, but I’m looking to differentiate a bit as well. Clayton Kershaw is a monster -250 favorite, Clarke Schmidt is one of my favorite GPP options. Zack Wheeler and Brandon Woodruff deserve some love too. However, there are only so many seats at the table.
Sandoval is a breakout candidate for 2023. He showed flashes of brilliance in 2022, but overall his numbers were just decent. He had a 9.14 K/9, 3.63 BB/9, and a 1.25 WHIP. Not great. But he does a great job of keeping the ball in the park (0.48 HR.9), and gives up very little hard contact (26.4% HardHit).
Even better? The Athletics lineup is equivalent to your local community college as far as power goes. Sandoval should have his way with these guys en route to smashing a cheap salary. The Angels are -165 favorites with a total of 7.5 runs.
Say what you will and overreact to Spring Training numbers, but count me out as a believer in Gray. The guy is on a MLB-record pace in home runs allowed (2.3/9 in 2022!!!). I know he didn’t serve any up in the Spring, but I take very little from those numbers in general.
The Braves have one of the most powerful lineups in baseball, and it will be on full display Saturday. In 2022, Austin Riley, Marcell Ozuna, and Matt Olson all had an ISO of at LEAST .227 against RHP. Ronald Acuna Jr. didn’t make that cut in a down year, but I think we all know what he can do. Fire up this stack and let’s hope that others overreact to Gray having a solid spring. He just isn’t good.
If we set the clocks back to 2016, Kershaw vs Bumgarner was must-watch television. Well, in the year 2023, that ship has sailed. Bumgarner has gone from ace to back-end starter in one of the worst teams in baseball.
His 2022 was not very good, and that’s me being polite. He had just a 6.43 K/9, allowed 1.42 HR/9, had a WHIP of 1.44…the list goes on all day. The Dodgers are absolutely stacked at the top of the lineup, and I’m expecting big things here.
The late-night hammer stack of Freddie Freeman, Will Smith, Mookie Betts, and JD Martinez won’t be very cheap, but should have their way early and often against the corpse of MadBum. Also, did you know he once dated a girl also named Madison Bumgarner? Weird world.
Here we go. The bold call of the night. Listen, Chris Sale coming back is great for Chris Sale. The guy has 11 starts since 2019. He got lit up in his last Spring Training outing, and I just am not a believer that he will get it done consistently.
This is an incredibly underrated Orioles lineup full of young players with pop. Adley Rutschman, Ryan Mountcastle, Gunnar Henderson, Anthony Santander, and Cedric Mullins are all solid options here. Henderson and Mullins won’t have the platoon advantage here, but I’m not concerned with that.
This team can score, and will continue to batter Red Sox pitching on Saturday. Ride this stack to the top and I’ll meet you there.
Saturday’s slate looks like an absolute blast. I’ll be taking my shots on the O’s, Braves, and Dodgers. I mentioned a few more arms I like above as well. Let’s have a HUGE day!
Find the team in the Discord and let’s chat about some plays!
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
Check me out on Twitter @BigItaly42 and let me know who you are playing tonight! Always around to talk some MLB!
Very few things in sports compare to Opening Day for MLB. I was down in Cincinnati for the festivities yesterday, and the atmosphere was electric. Being back in a stadium for the first time since last year was just the icing on the cake. The Reds let the fans down, but that’s what they do.
I’m pumped to be putting a few of these articles out each week to help you all make a bag or two this season. After every team playing on Opening Day, we have just a five-game slate for Friday evening. The first game of the eveing starts at 6:40, so we have a bit of an earlier start to lineup lock.
Let’s dig in and head into the weekend with some big wins!
Not only is May listed as a -200 favorite, but he has the easiest path to success tonight against Arizona. The Diamondbacks started hot last night against Julio Urias. After putting up two runs on three hits through the second, they had just one more hit the rest of the night.
Corbin Carroll is a frontrunner for NL Rookie of the Year, and an absolute joy to watch on the diamond. That said, he may just be the only bright spot for Arizona this year.
May isn’t an ace in the sense of being a dominant pitcher, but that won’t be necessary here. He threw just 30 innings in 2022, but overall he pitched well. He had an 8.7 K/9, which is a serviceable rate in a plus matchup like this one. Dustin also had a 4.2 BB/9, but those numbers seem to be more of an outlier than anything in a small sample size. I’m not expecting a dominant performance, but he will certainly be an easy SP to click on for cash games.
The MLB schedule gods gave most of the terrible teams a day off after embarrassing themselves yesterday. The White Sox nearly ran themselves into a loss…literally. This is a team loaded with talent, but one who will have a tough time to put up numbers on Friday night.
Javier was fantastic in 2022, posting a 11.74 K/9 and 2.54 ERA (2.43 xERA) across 148.2 IP. In his final four starts of the season, he tossed 23 innings, allowed ZERO runs on SIX hits with a 29/6 K/BB. Yes, those numbers are real. I double and triple-checked.
Javier and the Astros are listed as -150 favorites to bounce back from a disappointing Opening Day result.
I debated putting Jesus Luzardo in this spot, but his matchup is quite a bit tougher and he is an underdog. I do like him as a GPP pivot, and will make his way into some lineups today.
We are here to talk about Robbie Ray. This guy has had a roller-coaster of a career, having dealt with some massive command issues earlier in his career. He turned things around and took home the 2021 CY Young.
Two things are consistent with Robbie Ray. He strikes out a lot of batters (10.04/9 in 2022, 11.04 career), but he also serves up a lot of home runs. He served up 32 longballs in 32 starts in 2022, leading him to a 1.54 HR/9 which is…not good. You take the good with the bad with Ray, and if he is commanding his pitches, the sky is the limit.
The Guardians have some patient hitters and some power in their lineup, so Ray could find himself in a few tough spots. If he can navigate Jose Ramirez (J-Ram is 1-9 in his career off Ray for you BvP people), Ray will be one of the top scorers tonight. He was tremendous in Spring Training, posting a 26/6 K/BB and an ERA and WHIP both right around 1.00. Ray will find a way.
We don’t have the pleasure of picking on the worst starting LHP in all of baseball again today, but in my opinion, Freeland isn’t far behind. He posted a 6.75 K/9, 5.11 xERA, 4.48 xFIP…the list goes on. He doesn’t miss bats, and that should be an issue against San Diego tonight. Yes, he pitches better away from Coors Field, but the difference isn’t enough for me to move the needle.
The Friars have a loaded lineup, even with Fernando Tatis Jr. out for the 300th time in his short career. Xander Bogaerts posted a .448 wOBA against LHP in 2022, Manny Machado has always hit lefties well, the corpse of Nelson Cruz is even in play if he is in the lineup. All three of those, as well as Juan Soto, Matt Carpenter, and Ha-seong Kim had walk rates over 10% against LHP in 2022. There are a lot of lefties in this lineup, but Freeland also has some reverse-splits over the last few seasons.
I’m expecting some big innings in San Diego on Friday night.
Lance Lynn has been a solid, albeit unspectacular pitcher over the last few seasons. He will be 36 in May, and struggled this spring, allowing 7 ER in just 16 innings of work. He isn’t a player I’m going to target heavily on a full slate, but this is a spot I love for the Astros.
Lynn served up 19 homers in 21 starts in 2022, and tonight he gets to face the most dangerous hitter in the universe. Yes, I said it. Yordan Alvarez hit one last night that might still be in orbit. He’s my favorite player to watch in baseball, and I’m expecting big things again (please stay healthy!).
BvP will love to know that “Air Yordan” is 5/11 with a HR off Lynn. Alex Bregman has had his way with Lynn as well, and even without Jose Altuve, this lineup is stacked. Kyle Tucker and Jeremy Pena are two more priority plays in this stack for me. Jose Abreu is fine, but I like to differentiate stacks by swapping out 1B, and I’ll likely do the same tonight. We have to find ways to be different, especially on a short slate.
We have to pick spots on a five-game slate, and this is a prime spot for the Mariners. Gaddis posted high strikeout numbers in the minors, but has always had issues with the longball. We won’t spend much time talking about his 7.1 IP in 2022 across two starts, but as Charles Barkley would say…it was TURRIBLE. He gave up SEVEN home runs. Yes, SEVEN.
Gaddis pitched well in Spring Training, but I’ll need to see more of that in an actual MLB game before I believe in him. The Mariners can put up runs in a hurry, and I expect them to bounce back from a slow start yesterday to hang a big number here.
There are some righty-mashers in this lineup. I don’t need to tell you to play Julio Rodriguez (.233 ISO, .368 wOBA vs RHP), but I’m also high on Ty France (.179, .342), Teoscar Hernandez (.194, .333), and Jarred Kelenic. Let’s talk about Kelenic. The kid has just destroyed every level of the minors, then struggled at the big-league level. 2023 is his breakout party. I’m a leader in his fanclub. Don’t get left behind.
Small slate for a Friday, but we are just getting started! Javier and May look like the best options if you’re a cash game player. I’m high on the Astros, and I’m hoping that’s where we differentiate lineups. I’m sure the Mariners stack will be popular, and for good reason.
Luzardo is a nice GPP option, and I don’t mind Peterson either. Merrill Kelly against the overrated Dodgers lineup could be the ultimate GPP play, but one that has a low floor.
Best of luck on Friday night, I’ll be back tomorrow! Let’s take down some tournaments!
Find the team in the Discord and let’s chat about some plays!
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
Check me out on Twitter @BigItaly42 and let me know who you are playing tonight! Always around to talk some MLB!
Welcome to the first edition of Aces and Bases for the 2023 season, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel.
We did it, my friends. We made it through the winter and the MLB season is finally upon us. If you haven’t noticed yet, the game is very different this season. With the newly implemented pitch clock, the game is faster. We’ll definitely see some different things happening earlier in the season until all the players are fully used to playing quicker.
That said, it’s still baseball and it’s going to be fun to watch. We have a great 11-game slate today of MLB DFS today. With it being opening day, we have some studs on the mount so we’ll have a lot of low-scoring games. We also have some really bad pitchers throwing, so there should still be some offense.
Let’s dig and make some money!
Max Scherzer is coming off what was mostly a successful 2022 campaign in his first season with the Mets. While he did spend some time on the IL last season, when he was healthy, he was the Scherzer we have come to love. His K/9 were in line with his career numbers and he still managed to get double-digit victories, a rarity these days with pitchers not going too long in games.
Scherzer gets arguably one of the easier matchups today as he’ll face off against the Miami Marlins. While their lineup is a little improved over last season with the addition of Luis Arraez, they are still a bad lineup. The projected lineup for the Marlins today had just a .110 ISO and a .285 wOBA vs. righties last season. Scherzer should be able to navigate this lineup with ease this afternoon.
Another pitcher with a solid matchup today will be Shane McClanahan. McClanahan is coming off a very solid sophomore season. In his second season, McClanahan set career highs in both wins and innings pitched. At just $7.7k on DK today, we’ll be getting a pitcher that had a 30% K rate in 2022. I’ll take that every day of the week.
This Tigers lineup is not one that will strike fear in any pitcher’s eyes. It’s pretty weak up and down the lineup. Last season, this team had just a .129 ISO vs. lefties. The Tigers will more than likely throw out 8 righties today. McClanahan had a higher K rate last season vs. righties than he did lefties and that sets him up for a solid day today. You should feel very confident throwing McClanahan out in your lineups today.
I expect Corbin Burnes to have a monster season in 2023. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him win the NL Cy Young award this season. Burnes is coming off a very solid 2022. Like McClanahan, Burnes also set career highs in both Wins and Innings pitched. While the K’s were down a smidge from years past, his K rate was still at a very respectable 30% in 2022. I expect that number to climb this season.
The Cubs lineup will be improved this season with the additions of Dansby Swanson, Cody Bellinger, and Mancini. That said, it’s still a below-average lineup and one we’ll be able to chase K’s against, especially with a righty on the hill. This projected lineup today for the Cubs had a 25% K rate vs. righties in 2022. There’s definitely some upside in throwing out Burnes today.
When I opened up the schedule today and saw that Patrick Corbin was the opening-day starter for the Nationals 2 things came to mind. The first was that they were going to have an awful rotation this season. Corbin is the epitome of a gas can and while he’ll eventually throw out a gem, more often than not he’s hot garbage.
The second was that the Braves would be extremely popular. They’ll be popular for good reason. Corbin was atrocious in 2022. He pitched to a nearly 5 xFIP and gave up a nearly 50% hard-hit rate. His 58 barrels against far exceed any pitcher on the hill today. When Corbin is on the mound, we attack!
This stack will start with Austin Riley today. He was one of the best in baseball against lefties last season, with a .336 ISO and a .435 wOBA. He should continue to smash against lefties today in a very soft matchup. Next up will be Ronald Acuna. Acuna is now far removed from the knee surgery that saw him start out slowly last season. He matchups up extremely well today vs. Corbin. Corbin mostly throws a sinker to righties. This is a pitch that Acuna has done well against, with a .375 ISO.
I also really like Matt Olson here. Never fear the L/L matchup, especially against Corbin. Olson also has really strong numbers vs. lefty sinkers. Other guys I like here will be Sean Murphy and Travis d’Arnaud.
2022 was not kind to Eduardo Rodriguez. He had one of the worst seasons of his career last year. His strikeouts were down significantly and his xFIP was one of the highest numbers of his career. To make matters worse for him, he’ll be facing off against a Rays team that just crushes lefties. The projected Rays lineup today had a .171 ISO and a .337 wOBA vs. lefties last season. They have some lefty smashers and we’ll want to take advantage of that today.
My priority with the Rays stack today will be Randy Arozarena. He smashed lefties last year, to the tune of a .240 ISO and a .382 wOBA. Fresh off his WBC stint, he’s becoming a force to be reckoned with. He’ll be in all of my lineups today. Next up will be Yandy Diaz. While he doesn’t hit for much power vs. lefties, he does have a very high wOBA of .379. He’ll set the tone at the top of this lineup today.
My value plays in this lineup will be Isaac Paredes, Christian Bethancourt, and Jose Siri. Of the bunch, Paredes is my favorite as he showed a lot of pop at times last season. Franco, Margot, and Ramirez are also very much in play today.
The Baltimore Orioles offense is going to be a fun one to watch this season. They are much improved up and down the lineup. The rotation however is still one that is awful and one we’ll be able to attack often. On most teams, Kyle Gibson would be a back-of-the-rotation guy. For the Orioles, he’s being asked to be the ace of the staff. That says a lot about the Orioles’ pitching staff. With Gibson, I’m not going to be overly concerned with splits. His numbers against both sides of the plate are pretty similar.
Any Red Sox stack needs to start with their star player, Rafael Devers. Devers had a very solid year vs. righties in 2022 and he made us some money with our MLB DFS lineups. He had a .252 ISO and a wOBA that was pushing .400. He’s extremely pricey today at nearly $6k, but he should do extremely well in this matchup vs. Gibson. Next up will be a newcomer to the states, Masataka Yoshida.
Yoshida was a star in Japan and his skillset should transfer pretty nicely to the states. He’ll be hitting in the middle of this lineup today and is fairly priced at $4.4k. Other guys I really like here today will be Trison Casas at just $2.9k on DK, Reese McGuire at just $2.2k, and Alex Verdugo. The Red Sox are set up today to put up a big number on opening day. Vegas likes them a lot, and so do I!
We waited many months for this day and it’s going to be a great one. I plan on loading up on both Rays and Braves with my bats. My pitching will be focused on Mad Max and Shane Mac. This will hopefully be a recipe for success today!
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Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
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