MLB

Saturday baseball is back, which means we get a few slates to work with! The first game starts at 1:05 ET, with action all afternoon. The night slate begins at 7:10 and has just three games. There are plenty of targets to get after, so let’s get this party started!

MLB DFS Aces

Freddy Peralta vs San Diego Padres

Look, I get it. Facing a tough Padres lineup in Petco Park isn’t an ideal situation. Well, Freddy Peralta looks like he could dominate anyone right now. He has tossed 12 innings, allowed just six hits and one earned run while striking out 14. The bad? The same bad that always haunts Freddy. One, two, three, you get the picture. Freddy sees bases on balls in his nightmares, and that’s about the only way he gets killed on Saturday. If he is pounding the zone, the sky is the limit for Peralta on Saturday. He isn’t the safest play, but his upside is enormous. He has only struck out 29% of the batters he has faced in 2023 (39% against RHB). Let’s kill it with Freddy P.

George Kirby vs Colorado Rockies

I’m a big George Kirby fan. What I’m NOT a fan of is this Rockies offense. Thus far in 2023, they have the 3rd-lowest walk rate in MLB. Why is that significant? George Kirby just throws strikes. He just pounds the zone. In 25 starts last season, he walked just 22 batters (130 IP).

Colorado hardly has the talent to punish a guy like Kirby, and even if the likes of CJ Cron take him deep? There probably won’t be any ducks on the pond when it happens. Vegas is a believer in Kirby here as well, as the and the Mariners are listed as -240 favorites with a total of just 7.5 runs. He’s my favorite pitcher on the board.

Graham Ashcraft vs Philadelphia Phillies

Ashcraft is a guy who has tremendous stuff. The Philadelphia Phillies are missing a lot of “tremendous stuff” from their lineup, namely Bryce Harper, Darick Hall and Rhys Hoskins. Ashcraft has a 25.5% K rate and 1.08 WHIP in the early going of 2023. The Phillies are severely lacking in star power, and Ashcraft has the stuff to take advantage of a lineup that has the 4th-lowest walk rate AND the 2nd-highest K rate in MLB this season. Graham to the moon!

MLB DFS Stacks

St. Louis Cardinals vs Roansy Contreras

Not only is Roansy not striking anyone out (11.1% K rate in 2023), he has also allowed 17 baserunners in just 9 innings. He is having major issues throwing strikes, and that’s a recipe for disaster against a potent Cardinals lineup. St Louis is punching out just 20.3% of the time and also carrying a 9.3% walk rate as a team. Vegas has the Cardinals as a -200 favorite with a total at 8.5 runs. They are expecting the redbirds to bring some fireworks, and I agree.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Yusei Kikuchi

The best team in baseball draws one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball in Kikuchi. He has already allowed a dozen hits and walked two batters over just 9.1 innings of work. The Rays have just a 19% K rate as a team, a walk rate nearing 10%, and have hit EIGHT more home runs and scored TWENTY-TWO more runs than any other team in MLB.

I’ve never been a believer in Kikuchi, and I’m excited to keep rolling out Rays on Saturday. The total in this one is listed at 9.5, and I’d be stunned if the Rays don’t get 6-7 of those by themselves. Fire up your Randy Arozarena, Yandy Diaz, Wander Franco shares all the way to the bottom.

Did I mention Kikuchi is allowed a 50% HardHit rate? That isn’t a typo. He is getting rocked. Time will only tell how many more starts he gets before he’s banished to the pen. Rays gonna have a big game on Saturday.

Cleveland Guardians vs Chad Kuhl

Chad may be “Kuhl”, but what happens to him on Saturday will be very un-Kuhl. The Guardians are in a prime spot, and Vegas agrees, as the total in this one is approaching 10. Kuhl has been nothing short of awful in 2023, allowing a 43.6% HardHit and allowing 14 baserunners in just 10 innings.

Cleveland is a very patient team at the plate (12% BB rate, 3rd-best in MLB), and they strike out just 19% of the time. They will be putting the ball in play, and Kuhl has been serving them up like slow-pitch softball at the church down the street. He has allowed 9 ER in just 10 IP, including a trio of home runs.

Amed Rosario, Steven Kwan, Jose Ramirez, Andres Gimenez, Myles Straw, everyone is in play against Mr. Kuhl. Run it up!

MLB DFS Summary

Let’s cook up some big scores on Saturday! I’m shooting for the top of the leaderboard, and I’ll meet you there!

Find the team in the Discord and let’s chat about some plays!

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.   

Check me out on Twitter @BigItaly42 and let me know who you are playing tonight! Always around to talk some MLB!

It’s Thursday again, and that means another small slate of MLB DFS action for us to attack. There is a two-game slate at 1:10 ET, followed by five games starting at 6:40 with Phillies vs Reds. It is once again Jeffrey Springs day, and Happy Holidays to all who observe. Let’s get to it!

MLB DFS Aces

Jeffrey Springs vs Boston Red Sox

Springs doesn’t get the pleasure of facing a lineup like Oakland again this time, but the Red Sox won’t scare me off of him. He has been nothing short of tremendous in the early going this season, and now takes on a division rival for the first time in 2023.

Across 13 innings, he has allowed zero earned runs, just three hits, and has a 19/4 K/BB. This is undoubtedly a step up in talent from Detroit and Oakland, but Springs remains a lock for me, especially if you’re playing the short slate. He and his undefeated Rays are listed as -220 favorites against the aging Corey Kluber with a total of 8.5. I’ll be leaning on Springs once again in the early (or all day slate).

Jordan Montgomery vs Pirates

The Pirates have been a nice surprise in the early going in 2023, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves. The unfortunate injury to O’Neill Cruz really put a damper on the Bucs’ hot start. They have scored two or less runs in three of their last four games, and I don’t see them having much success here either.

Montgomery won’t blow you away (career 8.57 K/9), but he is a solid pitcher who gets the job done. He keeps the ball in the zone (career 2.52 BB/9), and in the park (1.06 HR/9 in 2022).

The Pirates don’t have many bats you worry about right now outside of Bryan Reynolds, and J-Mont is listed as a huge -250 favorite. There are very few good arms or matchups to target on Thursday night, and Montgomery stands out to me.

Joe Ryan vs Yankees

I mentioned a lack of elite options, which leads me to Ryan. In my mind, he is certainly the most talented pitcher on the mound for the evening slate. The Yankees have a formidable lineup of course, but there are also strikeouts to be had here.

Ryan has a 16/3 K/BB over 13 innings thus far in 2023, and if he can keep the ball in the park (20 HR allowed in 147 IP in 2022), he could be in line for a nice night. He is a +125 underdog against the young Jhony Brito with a total of 8.5. It may not be a fun situation to roster him Thursday night, but I like his potential a LOT more than some guys I’ll discuss here soon…

MLB DFS Stacks

St. Louis Cardinals vs Vince Velasquez

Velasquez has been a DFS darling at times (I remember a game where he had ~14 strikeouts and won me a bunch of money years ago). That said, he simply isn’t good at this stage of his career. The Cardinals have a powerful lineup, and a reasonably patient one as well (9.4% BB in 2023).

Only five teams have struck out less than the Cardinals’ 19.8% in 2023, and if Velasquez isn’t putting guys away, he is in trouble. Across two starts this season, he has served up 8 ER in just 7.1 IP, allowing 11 hits and a 4/5 K/BB. Those numbers are trouble any way you look at it. The Cardinals might push for double-digits when this one is all over.

Give me the red-hot Nolan Gorman, Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, and I’ll grab some cheap bats as well. If Tommy Edman has a decent lineup spot, I’ll be after him. Take your pick. This one is going to get ugly.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Nick Martinez

The reliever-turned starter Nick Martinez is off to a rough start in 2023. Across 11.2 innings, he has given up 10 hits, 8 ER, a pair of homers, and has just a 9/7 K/BB. This Brewers lineup is loaded with upside, and I’ll be attacking tonight from all angles.

These guys strike out a ton (25.4% in 2023), but the power and upside is there. I’ll be targeting the likes of Rowdy Tellez, Brian Anderson, Garrett Mitchell, Brice Turang, and Willy Adames to get things rolling. I’m not forcing Christian Yelich into any lineups on name alone. He is striking out nearly 40% of his PA, and just doesn’t seem to have a good feel at the plate right now.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Spencer Turnbull

Last but not least, I’m going back to the well with the Blue Jays. They disappointed last night until the final frame, but I’m banking on them getting it together in a big way on Thursday night.

Matt Chapman is the hottest hitter on the planet right now, and Spencer Turnbull has gotten lit up in each start. Over 8 IP, he has given up 12 ER on 13 hits and has just a 4/5 K/BB. He simply isn’t missing bats, and Toronto is primed and ready to take advantage.

Give me Chappy with Daulton Varsho, Bo Bichette, Vladdy, you name it. I want lots of pieces of this Canadian attack against Turnbull.

MLB DFS Summary

Two decent slates to play, and plenty of ways to attack on Thursday. Happy Jeffrey Springs day!

Find the team in the Discord and let’s chat about some plays!

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.   

Check me out on Twitter @BigItaly42 and let me know who you are playing tonight! Always around to talk some MLB!