We have a pretty solid slate for a Thursday as we kick off summer! First game of the day is at 12:35 ET, and there are even five late games. I’m checking in with my favorite targets to get your summer started off in the green. Let’s roll.
Giolito is one of a seemingly never-ending line of White Sox pitchers who are hard to trust. Well, he has earned back some of that trust on my end with solid work of late. He draws a great matchup against a Tigers team that continues to rank near the bottom in most offensive categories.
Lucas has allowed two earned runs or less in four of his last five outings, and I’m expecting more of the same. His control has been solid over that span as well, posting a 32/6 K BB over 38.2 IP. I’m ready to run him out on Thursday as a -140 road favorite against the lowly Tigers.
Gilbert is the last pitcher on this slate I truly feel good about. He draws another solid matchup against an A’s lineup that is essentially a Quad-A squad. Not only that, but Gilbert has shown some massive upside of late. Over his last three starts (18.1 IP), he has a 23/3 K/BB. He has allowed seven earned runs over that same span, but this matchup pales in comparison to both Texas and Atlanta who he faced recently.
The Mariners are listed as enormous -240 favorites as of Thursday morning, and the A’s continue to be…the A’s. They rank 29th in runs scored, 28th in hits, 28th in AVG, 26th in OBP…you get the picture. I’m sure you knew we can pick on Oakland, but we can do it with some upside tonight with Gilbert.
Targeting the Blue Jays with any pitcher is never fun, but we don’t get any leverage from fun, do we? Eflin might be having the best season that nobody is talking about in 2023. Over 47 innings of work, he has a 52/5 K/BB, has allowed 8 HR, has a WHIP of 1.00, and has 8+ K in three of his last four workdays.
His issue (as it has always been) is HR and opposite-handed hitters. He was once the guy you went out of your way to force in any lefties against. The good news for him is that the Blue Jays’ best bats are righties. Bo Bichette, Vladdy, Springer, Chapman, Kirk, Jansen…this is a very righty-heavy lineup.
I don’t doubt one (or maybe two) of them will find the seats, but the chances are solid that there won’t be many ducks on the pond. Elfin has pounded the strike zone and refuses to beat himself with free passes. Sign me up!
It is fair to say that Garrett has shown his ability to be a pitcher at this level. That said, he has also shown a good bit of inconsistency at times. Aside from a game where he inexplicably gave up 11 ER to the Braves, he has been very good. That said, this is Coors Field and I’m ready to pounce.
This total isn’t set at 11.5 for fun because oddsmakers think Garrett will get it done. The Rockies got smacked last night, but I’m banking on a bounceback by this offense. Randall Grichuck, Brenton Doyle, Charlie Blackmon, Jurickson Profar, and Kris Bryant are the bats I’m after here first. Fireworks are incoming in Coors tonight.
The Yankees can’t be too pleased with how Schmidt has pitched so far this season, and for good reason. Not only that, but he literally was CAUGHT with a substance on his hands, but was allowed to go wash it off. In turn, David Bell was ejected, not the 300th Yankee of all-time to try and gain an unfair advantage.
Enough about that. Regardless of the sticky stuff he probably got from Gerrit Cole, Schmidt has been…bad. He has only found success against the likes of Oakland, Cincinnati, and Cleveland. The Orioles are primed and ready to hang a big number on his total Thursday.
Give me Cedric Mullins, Ryan Mountcastle, Adley Rutschman, Anthony Santander, and Jorge Mateo here. This squad put up 9 last night against the Yankees, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see that number again here.
Luke Weaver has no business being a regular starter on a major league roster. He owns a 6.54 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, and has given up 9 HR in just 31.2 innings this season. Bad news for him is that the red-hot Cardinals are in town and they are ready to tee off.
Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Gorman, Nolan Arenado, and Lars Nootbaar are my favorites to start off the stack, but I’m ready to roll out any competent bat here. Start your day off fast with a nice Cardinals stack or some single-game action. Only thing that could slow it down is guys getting a rest after a late game last night. Check out those lineups!
Thursday looks like a fun one filled with offense! Let’s get that money.
Find the team in the Discord and let’s chat about some plays!
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
Check me out on Twitter @BigItaly42 and let me know who you are playing tonight! Always around to talk some MLB!
Saturday is finally here, and there is no shortage of MLB action on tap. The first game starts at 2:10 ET, followed by a ton of games in the mid afternoon. There are four games that start at 7:15 ET or later, so we have plenty of opportunities to find some paydays. Let’s get to it!
I’m going back to the well with Gray on Saturday. He was phenomenal for us last time out, and I’m ready to lock him in again. He faces his former team, the Colorado Rockies in this one, and we all know the story here.
Colorado has been a bottom-five offense against RHP this season, and these team stats INCLUDE Coors Field.
22.7% K, 7.7% BB, .144 ISO, 84 wRC+, and that has all been with the benefit of the 2nd-highest BABIP in MLB at .321.
On to Gray. He has been sensational of late, totaling 15 IP, allowing just 1 ER on 7 hits with a 13/2 K/BB over his last two starts. He may not have a high ceiling for strikeouts in this one, but he should go deep again and smash salary.
If any of you are prospect nerds or dynasty baseball players like myself, you remember when Keller was supposed to be the next big thing. It seems like ages ago, but here he is finally showing his elite potential. He has been nothing short of phenomenal over his last three starts. Check this out.
vs TB: 5 IP, 5 R (1 ER) 5 H, 1 BB, 8 K
vs COL: 9 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 8 K
vs BAL: 7 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 13 K
He now has 8+ K in four straight, and against the likes of Baltimore, Tampa Bay, and the Dodgers.
Now he draws a Diamondbacks team that is inexperienced. They have a low K rate against RHP (under 19%), but that doesn’t worry me here. There might not be a hotter pitcher on the planet right now.
Hunter Brown is in the midst of a solid start to his young career. He has had some issues with allowing too many baserunners, but this is a solid matchup. Vegas agrees too, listing the Astros as -300 favorites here. Brown has struck out 47 over 44.2 innings of work, and this Oakland offense is scaring nobody.
There is an argument to be made that Lyles is the worst starting pitcher in MLB. He has allowed 24 ER over his last four starts (20.1 IP), including 4 against these White Sox two starts ago (although he did go 9 innings).
He has allowed multiple home runs in five of his last six starts. He has a WHIP of 1.34…the list goes on all day. I’m all over the hot-hitting Luis Robert, Jake Burger, Tim Anderson, and Yoan Moncada here. You can pick and choose some other power bats as you see fit. Lyles is a ticking time bomb.
There was once a time where “Thor” was one of the best arms in MLB, but those days are a distant memory. He has had major issues missing bats (26 K in 36.1 IP), and has served up 24 ER over that span. His 1.38 WHIP is brutal as well, and there are few teams swinging the bat better than the Cardinals.
Nolan Arenado and Nolan Gorman have combined for about 300 home runs over the last week (10 actually, but it feels like more), and Paul Goldschmidt always needs to be on your radar as well. Willson Contreras, Lars Nootbaar, and even the “all-or-nothing” bat of Paul DeJong are all in play here.
Sears actually hasn’t been THAT bad this season, but he is still a very hittable pitcher. He has served up 11 HR in 42.2 IP, and this is a Houston lineup that is finally getting healthy. The most underrated bat in MLB, Yordan Alvarez, leads the way for me here. Alex Bregman has been heating up, Jose Altuve is back, and nobody ever talks about Kyle Tucker. I’m not after the corpse of Jose Abreu here, but could grab some shares of Jeremy Pena here.
Happy Saturday! Let’s start the weekend off with some winners!
Find the team in the Discord and let’s chat about some plays!
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
Check me out on Twitter @BigItaly42 and let me know who you are playing tonight! Always around to talk some MLB!
Thursday is here once again and this time we have a six game slate for the day. There are four games early, starting at 12:35 ET, and a pair of games starting at 7:07 and 7:45 for the evening. We actually have a few solid arms on the mound today. Let’s find ourselves some spots to target!
I was torn between Berrios and Nestor Cortes here, but I’m going to continue to ride the Berrios train. He has been solid since a disastrous start to his 2023 campaign. Over his last two starts, he has totaled 12 IP, 11 H, 4 ER, and a 10/4 K/BB.
The Yankees have a ton of firepower in their lineup, and it has all come together of late. They have hit 14 HR as a team over the last week. They also own a BB rate of nearly 12% over that same span, but also carry a 23.4% K rate.
Berrios tends to get himself in trouble when he can’t find the strike zone, so this play is dependent on his command. There aren’t a ton of options on the slate, and I’d expect some Yankees bats to carry some ownership. Berrios and the Jays are a -130 favorite in this one with a total of 8.5 runs. It’s risky, but it could pay off big.
Perez has made just one start as he begins his 2023 campaign, but it went pretty well. He went 4.2 innings, allowing four hits and two earned runs while striking out seven against the Reds. He did allow a pair of solo homers, but the most encouraging part is the K upside.
The Nationals are…not a very good offense. They are almost completely devoid of power, and have just 4 HR as a team over the last week. The upside for Eury is solid here, as the Nats are arguably the worst lineup in MLB. I don’t expect his leash will be incredibly long, but if he can rack up 6-8 K over his time on the bump, he will smash salary. He is a -145 favorite with a total of just 7.5 runs.
I’m ready to jump back aboard the Cease bandwagon. He hasn’t looked like the dominant arm we saw in 2022, but the flashes are there. The Guardians don’t strike out a lot, but they also have very little power. Cease is coming off one of his best starts of the season against a tough Astros lineup. He went 6 scoreless innings, allowed just four hits, and had a 5/2 K/BB.
I see him as a solid bet for at least a Quality Start bonus. The Sox are favored at -140 with a low total. of just 7.5.
One of the most beloved Cardinals in their long history, this is the end of the road for Mr. Wainwright. He hasn’t looked sharp at all across his first two starts, and I’m expecting things to go much worse against a potent Dodgers’ attack.
Against Detroit and Boston, he served up 8 ER on 15 hits in just 10 innings of work.
This is a great spot for Max Muncy, Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, James Outman, and Will Smith. Load up on some Dodgers tonight!
I mentioned above how I considered looking toward Cortes today, but I’ve made my stand. Cortes has struggled massively of late, allowing 15 ER over his last three starts.
That doesn’t bode well against a potent Jays lineup in their own backyard. This lineup was held in check until extras yesterday, but I don’t see that happening today. Bo Bichette, Daulton Varsho, Matt Chapman, and Brandon Belt lead the way for me here. If Vlad is back and in the lineup, he is a great target as well.
Anderson has been very generous with baserunners, and the Orioles know how to take advantage. Over his last three starts, Anderson has allowed 24 baserunners in just 17.2 innings of work.
The Orioles are one of my favorite offenses to target because they are reasonably priced and the upside is massive. Ced Mullins, Ryan Mountcastle, Adley Rutschman, and Gunnar Henderson are my main targets, but I’m OK with slotting in some value bats as well depending on how the lineup shakes out.
Good ol’ Thursday. Let’s hope for some clear weather and lots of green on our screens!
Find the team in the Discord and let’s chat about some plays!
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
Check me out on Twitter @BigItaly42 and let me know who you are playing tonight! Always around to talk some MLB!
As usual, Saturday has a LOADED slate slate of games all day. The first pitch of the day at 1:05 ET with the Rays taking on the Yankees. The latest game is a little bit of Coors Field delight starting at 8:10 ET. Let’s turn Saturday into a profitable one!
The best pitcher on the board takes on a Yankee offense that is finally getting things going. Regardless, he is listed as a -140 favorite with a total of just 7.5 runs. McClanahan has been ridiculously good this season, striking out 58 over 46 innings pitched with a 1.13 WHIP. He has allowed just one earned run over his last two starts (12 IP) with a 16/6 K/BB.
The Yankees don’t strike out a ton (21.8%), but I’m taking the edge with the pitcher here. This isn’t the best spot by any means, but talent tends to prevail in these situations. One of the Yankees’ main strengths is the longball (of course), but Mr. McClanahan has allowed just four all season. He has handed out a few more free passes than I’d like (20), but if he pounds the zone here, the sky is the limit.
One of the more underrated pitchers in the game, Ryan has some upside in this one. His command continues to be elite (47/6 K/BB in 44 IP). The Cubs walk at a 9.4% clip and have been getting on base with the best of them. That won’t help them here, as Ryan has walked no more than two batters in a start this season.
He is listed as a healthy favorite (-175) and I like him to be one of the higher scorers on the slate Saturday.
The Athletics have actually shown some signs of life of late, led by the suddenly elite Brent Rooker. Gray was fantastic in his last start, throwing 7 innings of 1-run ball with an 8/0 K/BB. The Rangers are inexplicably only a -140 favorite in this one, but I like the potential for Gray.
Oakland strikes out at a healthy 24.4% clip, and I’m expecting Gray to do well here. He struggled last time he faced this lineup, but that line looks like a blip on the radar to me. Gray doesn’t have double-digit K upside here, but he could smash value.
More about the Rangers here. JP Sears has been solid in some ways this season, but he has struggled with homers. That bodes well for a Rangers team that is loaded with power. Sears is striking out a batter per inning and has only walked 8 batters in 37.1 IP.
What he hasn’t done well is keeping the ball in the park (2.41 HR/9, 10 in 37.1 IP). I’m banking on the Rangers punishing a few pitches here. He served up three round-trippers in his last start. Give me Adolis Garcia, Nate Lowe, Ezequial Duran, and Josh Jung. We might see another big outing for the Rangers.
Matz is the epitome of a league-average pitcher at this stage in his career. As far as starters go, he may even be below average. He owns a 1.60 WHIP and has allowed 23 ER in just 36.1 innings of work. The Red Sox have been heating up of late, and I’m all aboard the Boston train today.
Raffy Devers, Masataka Yoshida, Triston Casas, Kike Hernandez, and Justin Turner headline the list. I like Connor Wong as a cheap punt also if he is in the lineup, he has been on fire of late. Bombs away in Boston!
The Phillies are in a great spot at the hitters’ haven known as Coors Field today. Ryan Feltner allowed 10 baserunners in his last start against the struggling Mets (6 BB, 4 H). Philly didn’t exactly set the world on fire last night, but I’m banking on some fireworks on Saturday.
Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, and Alec Bohm top my list. The upside is massive here, and I’ll be adding as many pieces as I can here.
Baseball all day on a rainy day (at least in Ohio) is the best! Let’s win some money today!
Find the team in the Discord and let’s chat about some plays!
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
Check me out on Twitter @BigItaly42 and let me know who you are playing tonight! Always around to talk some MLB!
Weird slate Thursday is back again, and I’m here to help you cash in big! There is a game at 12:35 ET, followed by two afternoon games. There are three games starting at 7:05 or later. We have a few slates to play with, so let’s look for an edge!
Yu and company are barely favored here (-120), and I think there is a pretty solid edge. The Twins have almost an identical record, but the Padres lineup is clearly superior. Darvish has been excellent as usual. If you eliminate his subpar start in Mexico (6 IP, 4 ER, 3 HR), he has allowed 1 ER or less in all but one start in 2023.
Command issues have reared their ugly head twice this season for Darvish, but he has a 15/1 K/BB over his last two starts. Minnesota has the 3rd-highest K rate of any team in MLB at 25.5%. Darvish seems like a no-brainer play here in what is actually a pretty good spot.
I originally was going to list the Reds as a sneaky stack, and I’m not completely off that train either. There are limited options today, and Senga is one of the biggest favorites on the board at -200. He was excellent last time out, shutting out the Rockies over six frames with a 4/4 K/BB.
Walks have been a massive issue for him, as he has 16 free passes in his last four starts (20.2 IP). He has done a good job of limiting damage, but he has also faced all terrible offenses (MIA, OAK, SF, WSH, COL). As crazy as it sounds, he may be a pitcher you can roster on the early slate and roster some Reds also. The Reds are a patient team, but it remains to be seen if they can get the big hit when they need it.
Nathan Eovaldi should be popular today, but I don’t need to tell you that. He is a -220 favorite against one of the worst offenses in MLB. Cobb is a nice pivot from him, and has quietly been fantastic this season. He owns a 2.89 xFIP and has 38 K over 40.1 IP.
The Diamondbacks offense is young and talented, but inconsistent. Cobb has been one of the most consistent pitchers in MLB this season. Arizona doesn’t strike out a lot (20.3%), but they also don’t walk much (7.3%), and Cobb has given up just six free passes in 2023. Let’s swerve and throw Cobb in some lineups.
Waldichuk has been rough this season, and I’m not expecting that to change today against a dangerous Rangers’ offense. He has given up five HR, 18 hits, 12 ER, and has a 15/8 K/BB over his last three starts. The Rangers have double-digit upside here.
The Rangers have been the second-best offense in MLB this season by some metrics. They have just four less runs scored than the Rays’ juggernaut, but they have done it with TWENTY-EIGHT less home runs. Adolis Garcia is my favorite bat, followed by Marcus Semien, Ezequiel Duran, Nate Lowe, and Josh Jung. I’m expecting big numbers for Texas tonight.
Bailey Ober has a 0.98 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, and a 16/6 K/BB over 18.1 IP in 2023. Pretty good, right? Not so fast. He has just a 26.7% GB rate, a xFIP nearing 5, and has not allowed a HR yet this season. The Padres are in a great spot here, and I still don’t understand this line.
You can get the Padres -1.5 run line around +140 and it seems like a nuke to me. Fernando Tatis Jr., Juan Soto, Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, and even the struggling Jake Cronenworth are at the top of my list here. Padres are going to do some work.
The White Sox have been a struggling offense all season long and have now lost Eloy Jimenez (AGAIN). Brady Singer has been…terrible of late, serving up 13 ER in just 6.2 IP over his last two starts with a 9/6 K/BB. These weren’t exactly elite offenses in Minnesota and Oakland either.
Give me the red-hot Luis Robert, , Tim Anderson, Andrew Vaughn, and Yasmani Grandal here to put some work in against Singer. Thinks might get ugly for Singer again.
Split slates galore today, but there are some spots to exploit! Let’s crush Thursday and make some cash to buy something nice for Mom this weekend!
Find the team in the Discord and let’s chat about some plays!
Good luck and hope to see you in the green.
Check me out on Twitter @BigItaly42 and let me know who you are playing tonight! Always around to talk some MLB!
At WIN DAILY®, our motto is to “change your game and change your life.” We want to help you win that bet, parlay, and big DFS tournament and have some fun while you do. Our goal is to help you turn your love of sports into a profit center while playing responsibly and enjoying your time with a like-minded community.
