MLB DFS

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 10.8

We’re back with another four game slate and this one is going to be some rough sledding. Every team is down to their third or fourth starter and it’s desperation time. Today’s slate is as much as dodging the landmines as anything else. Managers may be quick to the bullpen at this point to try and end the series for a couple days off. We’re going to sort through all eight options just like yesterday, but understand that MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 10.8 is a very tough task from many angles.

Win Daily Gold is the key to your DFS success and has yielded over $2,500,000 in winnings for our subscribers. Now, thanks to our friends over at Monkey Knife Fight, you can get the gold for three months simply by making your first deposit on Monkey Knife Fight. To claim your FREE WinDaily Gold membership for three months, simply use promo code WINDAILY when making your deposit. 

For a limited time, Monkey Knife Fight is sweetening the deal with a 100% match bonus up to $50. Be sure to check out my picks for tonight after the pitchers!

Pitchers to Target

*Note – Pitchers are listed by preference

Sixto Sanchez, Marlins

Pros – When you’re leading off with a pitch going up against the Braves, that should tell you where we’re at for the pitching slate. The kid has electric stuff and he showed it in the playoffs already –

Now, the stuff hasn’t exactly translated in the exact way we would like. The K rate was just 20.9% which could potentially be chalked up to learning on the job in the majors. The swinging strike rate is awesome at 12.8% and that’s what still gives me some hope that the K rate will come up to a higher level. Much like Pablo Lopez, Sixto had some good and bad against the Braves this year. One start was great with 26 DK and featured six strikeouts. Atlanta was also 15th and 19th against the slider and change, which made up 46% of the pitches for Sanchez this year. Lastly, the 0.69 HR/9 should really help if it’s the true measure of his talent.

Cons – The Braves are a very dangerous offense and the results from the Cubs start are skewed. Sanchez was excellent through three innings and really dodged big time damage in the fourth and fifth. Atlanta did light him up in the last time for four runs over three innings. If the 58% ground ball rate and the stuff doesn’t show up, Sanchez is going to get waxed (which is a fear for every pitcher on the slate).

Christian Javier, Astros

Pros – We’re going downhill fast with options. Javier almost has to start this one be default. Zack Greinke has some type of arm injury, and the other four main starters have been spent. That’s going to leave Javier who threw an inning of relief in Game 1 with 25 pitches. The Astros likely treat that as a side session and hope he can go five, maybe six innings if things go well. Javier had a much higher K rate than Sanchez at 25.2% across 54.1 IP. The hard hit rate was under 29% and he was nasty to RHH. Through 89 righties faced, Javier allowed a .101 average, .208 wOBA and had a 30.3% K rate.

Cons – The fly ball rate is positively terrifying at 52.2% and the HR/9 was 1.82. It’s a really poor match considering the A’s have the highest fly ball rate to righties in the league and were one of three teams that were over 40%. The ISO was 13th as a team and there is power up and down the lineup. The FIP and the xFIP was nearly a run and a half higher than his ERA on top of everything else.

Frankie Montas, A’s

Pros – I think if we’re just talking raw talent, Montas might be the best pitcher on the slate. After getting suspended for PED’s last year, he really never got this season going with a 5.60 ERA and a 1.70 HR/9. He does bring a hefty K rate to the table at 25.3% and his FIP and xFIP were both under 4.75, pointing to some poor luck. A strand rate of 68.7% didn’t do him any favors. Montas generated an 11.7% swinging strike rate, in line with 2019. You can build the case that this could be a redemption start with the Astros being righty heavy. He has three starts against them this year, totaling 15.1 IP, 7 ER, two homers and 14 K’s.

Cons – I mean, it’s tough to look past how poorly he pitched this year. Houston was the hardest offense to strikeout this season and the only team to finish under 20% for their K rate to RHP. He does face a righty heavy lineup and he had a .252 wOBA to that side but still faced a 1.19 HR/9. If he was cheaper, I could build a stronger case. The only thing potentially saving him is the Astros lineup construction, and even then it’s scary. He wouldn’t be this high if we had a normal slate. Even with the negatives, he’s interesting for MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 10.8.

Jordan Montgomery, Yankees

Pros – The only good factor for Montgomery is the league-leading K rate for the Rays to lefty pitching. Through 44 IP, he did have a 24.4% K rate and a 12.9% swinging strike rate. The leash isn’t going to be long with the Yankees facing elimination. However, the 5.11 ERA doesn’t jive with the FIP and xFIP under 3.70 each. The hope here is some strikeouts before he gets yanked or gets buried.

Cons – Montgomery has gotten tagged by righties with a .338 wOBA and a 1.91 HR/9. Tampa was fourth in ISO, sixth in wOBA and fourth in wRC+. There’s strikeouts to be had, but this matchup is difficult and Montgomery isn’t that good.

Ryan Yarbrough, Rays

Pros – The Rays will utilize an opener, so Yarbrough doesn’t have to face the top of the order right out of the chute. What’s interesting is the Yankees ranked 20th in OPS and wOBA, 15th in ISO and 18th in wRC+ against lefties this year. The K rate was average but we just assume they kill lefties when that wasn’t exactly the case in 2020. The career 0.99 HR/9 is awesome to take into this spot even if the 18.8% K rate isn’t. Both the fly ball and hard hit rates were under 29.5% and he was slightly better to RHH with a .299 wOBA. Being the cheapest pitcher we can use doesn’t hurt either since we’re going to want some bats.

Cons – If Yarbrough allows any runs, he lacks the K ability to make up for it so it’s likely down to just preventing runs period. He hasn’t pitched at all in the playoffs and only threw 35 pitches in his last appearance, so his stamina is a total guess. Despite some mediocre numbers over the season, New York can be lethal to lefties and it could go terribly for Yarbrough. Tampa would likely be hyper aggressive to try and not go to Game 5.

Kyle Wright, Marlins

Pros – Well, there’s not a ton here. Wright has potential but he’s yet to really put it together in the bigs. There is some hope in his last three starts of the regular season. He went six innings or more in all three, didn’t allow more than three runs and had at least four strikeouts in all three. The lowest DK total was 13.5, which probably is perfectly acceptable today. He does have a fly ball rate under 33% so that helps slightly as well.

Cons – I will not be using Wright as I don’t see almost any path to success. The start prior to his three good ones came against these Marlins and he was under two DK points and he gave up five runs. I’m fully on board with Marlins hitters, as Wright walked over 14% of the batters faced and Miami was 11th in BB%. He also got cracked by lefties. They had a .393 wOBA, .288 average, 1.96 HR/9 and the FIP to that side approached 7.00.

Julio Urias/Tony Gonsolin, Dodgers

Pros – The Dodgers do have some options here and could go with Tony Gonsolin. Both pitchers are rested and I would have Gonsolin ranked as my fourth pitcher with the platoon advantage of not being a lefty pitcher. If it is Urias, he was solid this season with a 3.27 ERA and a 3.72 FIP. The K rate was still not there at just 20.1% and the walk rate was high-is at 8.3%. The swinging strike rate was just under 12% and he only had a 0.67 HR/9.

Gonsolin has the higher K rate at 26.1% and the lower walk rate at 4%, to go along with an ERA and FIP combo under 2.35. Even the xFIP is just 3.80, not a large cause for concern. His HR/9 was 0.39 and neither side of the plate had a wOBA over .235. I honestly hope it’s Gonsolin. He might even climb as high as second or third.

Cons – Urias had an xFIP over 5.00 and the fly ball rate was well over 40% which is rough. Since he’s the most expensive pitcher, he would have to be the highest-scoring to justify the spend and I’m not sure I see that. His K rate dipped even further to righties at just 18.5%.

He has a general lack of experience with under 87 IP and maybe the moment is too big for Gonsolin. The fly ball rate approaching 42% isn’t too fun but past that, the metrics look quite strong. Gonsolin would have to be strongly considered.

Chris Paddack, Padres

Pros – I have nothing here for him in MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 10.8.

Cons – It’s the Dodgers and Paddack has averaged under five innings per start this year.

Monkey Knife Fight

We’re going with the Fantasy Points Challenge today instead of anything to do with pitching. I’ll gladly take two of the hottest hitters on the planet and the Rays likely start Mike Brosseau against a lefty. He had 42 at-bats and racked up an 1.121 OPS, .405 ISO and a .455 wOBA. If he doesn’t start, I’d replace him with Manuel Margot.

Remember, go to Monkey Knife Fight and use promo code WINDAILY to get a $50 matching bonus and 3 month FREE to Win Daily Sports!

Let’s get after it today my friends!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 10.7

Welcome back to one of the last editions of Starting Rotation on the season! We’ll be attempting to run this the rest of the divisional series at least since we have full slates until teams get eliminated. This is Game 3 for some teams and we’re going to change up the format a bit. Instead of cash and GPP picks, we’ll hit some quick notes on all eight pitchers. MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 10.7 will feature some pros and cons for each pitcher on the slate, so let’s dig into it!

Win Daily Gold is the key to your DFS success and has yielded over $2,500,000 in winnings for our subscribers. Now, thanks to our friends over at Monkey Knife Fight, you can get the gold for three months simply by making your first deposit on Monkey Knife Fight. To claim your FREE WinDaily Gold membership for three months, simply use promo code WINDAILY when making your deposit. 

For a limited time, Monkey Knife Fight is sweetening the deal with a 100% match bonus up to $50. Be sure to check out my picks for tonight after the pitchers!

Pitchers to Target

*Note – Pitchers are listed by preference

Ian Anderson, Braves

Pros – Miami has the second-highest K rate among teams left in the postseason field, which is a huge plus for Anderson. Only Gerrit Cole and Dinelson Lamet had a higher K rate than Anderson’s among teams left and Anderson dazzled in his first postseason start. He whiffed nine hitters over six scoreless innings on 99 pitches. Honestly, he should be the highest or second-highest rostered pitcher on the slate and I can’t see many reasons he shouldn’t be.

Cons – There’s not much here on the surface. Anderson was slightly worse on the road this year with a 2.55 ERA and .229 wOBA, but that’s nitpick-y at best. The HR/9 was only 0.28 over his 32.1 IP in the regular season, which is a huge help right now. He’s too cheap even with playoff pricing and solid chalk in my eyes.

Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers

Pros – The other half of the chalk on DK in MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 10.7 and I still feel cheated that Kershaw wasn’t given a shot at a complete game against the Brewers. The man was at 93 pitches, Dave Roberts. Relax. Anyways, this matchup isn’t easy because the Padres have some lefty mashers. In the first start Kershaw had against the Padres, he racked up nine strikeouts over 6.1 IP and gave up three earned. With a 12.7% swinging strike rate, he’s fairly hard to ignore.

Cons – The pitch data isn’t exactly the best, as San Diego was fifth against the fastball and first against the slider. The HR/9 for Kershaw was the second-highest of his career at 1.23 and his FIP and xFIP were about a full run higher than the 2.16 ERA. That’s about all I have, really. The Padres are dangerous and I still like Tatis, Machado or Myers as a one-off or mini stack even with Kershaw. We saw with Glasnow last night you can give up runs and still be the highest scoring pitcher on the slate.

Pablo Lopez, Marlins

Pros – To say the bottom falls out in a hurry is an understatement here. I’m not super pumped to go after Lopez, but his track record this year against the Braves is notable. He’s made three starts and two have been great. He’s scored 24.3 and 25.3 in each game, racking up at least six strikeouts in each. The Braves do struggle against the changeup, which Lopez throws about 30% of the time. The 12.1% swinging strike rate isn’t that far away from Kershaw and his hard hit rate and fly ball rate are under 30%. The ceiling is tangible.

Cons – So I mentioned Lopez made three starts. The third resulted in -11.1 DK points and he gave up seven earned while not getting out of the second inning. Lopez was also demonstrably worse on the road, with a 4.91 ERA, .302 wOBA and 1.48 WHIP. To his credit, the HR/9 was still just 0.70. It’s a very risky play, especially after seeing Atlanta hang a crooked number last night.

Jesus Luzardo, A’s

Pros – The lefty at least has some strikeout potential with a 23.8% rate and a 12.6% swinging strike rate. Both the fly ball and hard hit rates were at 32% or lower with a HR/9 of 1.37. Houston took a serious step back against LHP this year, ranking 26th in OBP, 22nd in OPS, 17th in ISO, 22nd in wOBA and 20th in wRC+. This matchup is significantly different than the White Sox spot Luzardo faced in his first start of the postseason.

Cons – With Oakland facing elimination, they will be hyper aggressive with the pitching. If Luzardo hits any kind of a rough patch, he’s going to get the hook. Additionally, Houston was the second-best team in K rate to lefties all year. The matchup is slightly better for Luzardo on paper, but the Astros are proving to be postseason tough right now. I very much prefer Anderson for $700 more.

Zach Davies, Padres

Pros – If he can get it going, the Padres really need him to provide some length. Mike Clevinger left the game super early last night, so the pen has already been spent. He does have 13 innings against the Dodgers under his belt this year with five runs given up, but also 10 strikeouts. The K rate for Davies wasn’t special at just 22.8% but the hard hit rate was under 29%. He really controlled the left side with a .222 wOBA and only two bombs over 34.1 IP.

Cons – Righties were far more successful with a .317 wOBA and a 1.80 HR/9. Davies did whiff more to that side at 28.2% but it may not be enough. There’s not a lot of strikeout appeal and we all know what the Dodgers are capable of, even if they haven’t shown it a ton through the first couple playoff games. Davies is scary with not a lot of upside.

Jose Urquidy, Astros

Pros – Oakland isn’t a super scary offense and was right about average among all the offensive categories. Urquidy did pitch pretty well over 4.1 IP in the Wild Card series, perhaps calming some fears about an uneven 29.1 regular season innings.

Cons – Honestly, that’s about where the good news stops on paper. Urquidy had a putrid 14.7% K rate which looks wildly out of character with his other numbers along the minors and majors. The swinging strike rate was barely over 9% and the HR/9 was 1.21. Perhaps the scariest issue is he got smacked by RHH. Over 53 batters faced, he gave up a .368 wOBA, .858 OPS and a 2.19 HR/9. The ERA was great at 2.73 but the FIP was 4.71 and the xFIP was 5.36. The floor is disaster here.

Charlie Morton, Rays

Pros – Morton had a tough time this year with health and other issues, but he did perhaps find something approaching his groove with the last two starts. He gave up 12 hits across 10 IP, but he did whiff 14 hitters and generated 14 ground balls. That’s a little more like what we know with Morton the past few years. He also is stretched out with 94 and 93 pitches thrown in those starts. He also held RHH to a 0.42 HR/9, drastically important in this start. Morton is at least the cheapest starter to use for MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 10.7.

Cons – Other than it’s the Yankees on the other side? Morton struggled with a 1.39 WHIP, worst since 2012 with the Pirates. The ground ball rate was the absolute worst of his career at 41.6% even with a swinging strike rate over 12%. The 24.7% K rate isn’t a ton against New York and it’s bold to go against them without a ton of strikeout upside on paper. New York did have the sixth-worst fly ball rate to RHP, but they boasted the best HR/FB ratio in MLB at 20.1%.

Masahiro Tanaka, Yankees

Pros – Tampa has the worst K rate to RHP among the teams left standing, so perhaps Tanaka can use his 22.3% rate on the season. It’s bizarre to see his K rate that low with a 14% swinging strike rate, so maybe “Playoff Tanaka” shows up this time. Having no rain delays could help him a good bit. The Rays were also just 20th against the splitter, which could save the veteran.

Cons – The wOBA and average to LHH look great at .275 and .188 each, but Tanaka had a 2.03 HR/9 to LHH and a 4.88 FIP. Righties tagged him for a .365 wOBA and a .330 batting average, so there’s extreme danger on each side of the plate. Also, since Aaron Boone decided to use Deivi Garcia as an opener, the Yanks have now used nine pitchers not named Gerrit Cole the past two nights with the series tied. If Tanaka struggles early, he might have to wear one much longer than normal in the postseason.

Monkey Knife Fight

At this point, it’s best to treat the bet as a double up since the playoffs can make things very weird. I expect Anderson to do the heavy lifting, but 12 total is attainable. Remember, go to Monkey Knife Fight and use promo code WINDAILY to get a $50 matching bonus and 3 month FREE to Win Daily Sports!

Let’s get after it today my friends!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.30

I’d be lying if I said that I planned on writing for the postseason. However, it’s been a #weird season and that’s given way to a #weird playoff format. We have a whopping eight games today, and a slate that size deserves the full Starting Rotation treatment. We have a ton of interesting arms on the slate and plenty of aces to sort through. Let’s get right after this enormous playoff slate with a full MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.30 and get ready to kill it today/tonight!

Win Daily Gold is the key to your DFS success and has yielded over $2,500,000 in winnings for our subscribers. Now, thanks to our friends over at Monkey Knife Fight, you can get the gold for three months simply by making your first deposit on Monkey Knife Fight. To claim your FREE WinDaily Gold membership for three months, simply use promo code WINDAILY when making your deposit. 

For a limited time, Monkey Knife Fight is sweetening the deal with a 100% match bonus up to $50. Be sure to check out my picks for tonight after the pitchers!

Cash Options

Tyler Glasnow

Pitch Data – FB – 13th CB – 5th

Of all the arms on the slate today, Glasnow has the highest total K rate at 38.2%. His swinging strike rate is 14% which is easily a career high mark. Both the fly ball and hard hit rates are under 40% and if you’ve been reading this all year, you know that he’s been somewhat unlucky this year. His 4.08 ERA does not match the 2.75 xFIP nor the 3.66 FIP so there’s still potential for better.

Some of the bad luck lies in his 1.73 HR/9 and that’s far above his career mark of 1.29. Glasnow is fairly even to both sides of the plate as far as K rate and wOBA. The slight concern is the 2.45 HR/9 to RHH, which the Blue Jays do have a good bit. You can point to the pitch data not being great, but these aren’t the typical fastballs and curveballs. Even though the Jays don’t K a lot at under 22%, Glasnow is just different. Somehow, he doesn’t have a start against Toronto this season but I believe he puts the Jays away in this game.

Walker Buehler

Pitch Data – FB – 24th CT – 29th CB – 21st SL – 18th

Buehler has been anything but a cash pitcher all season, but if he can’t get it done in this spot, I’m out of answers. We’ve hammered the Brewers all season long with righty pitching since they have the highest K rate among playoff teams and that’s only because Detroit didn’t make the field. They are 24th or worse in OBP, slugging, OPS, wOBA and wRC+. The ISO makes it all the way up to 19th and the pitch data really favors Beuhler here as well. He uses the fastball or cutter almost 75% of the time and Milwaukee has been brutal against those pitches.

Much like Glasnow, the home run ball has bit him this season. Through 36.2 IP, he’s got a1.72 HR/9 against his career mark of 0.72. The K rate overall ended at 28.6% which is more than respectable and slightly under his career 31.9% mark. The odd part is his swinging strike rate is 12.3% which is the highest he’s recorded. I don’t love the fly ball rate of 41.9% but the hard hit rate of 25.8% mitigates that. Also, the Brewers are just 13th in fly ball rate to RHP. The only knock other than inconsistency is the pitch count. He hasn’t been above 71 in a game since late August. Reportedly, he threw 90 in a simulated game. If the Dodgers unleash him, the ceiling is 30+ DK points.

Honorable Mention

Max Fried – The Reds were 25th in wOBA to LHP, 26th in OPS and 28th in OBP. They do sport a top 12 ISO but combine it with a top 10 K rate of 24%. Fried is uber talented and had a 22.3% K rate with a 0.32 HR/9, tied for fifth-best among any starter in the field. Injuries led to some consistency issues, but $8,000 could be a cheap way to a big performance if fitting in big bats.

Chris Bassitt – He doesn’t have the greatest chance to match the K potential that the other arms posses but he’s lights out at home. Over 37.1 IP, he has a 0.72 ERA, .231 wOBA and a 1.02 WHIP. Even RHH have a .236 wOBA against him and Chicago does whiff 26.2% against RHP, the third-highest rate in the field.

GPP Options

Trevor Bauer

Pitch Data – FB – 1st CT – 1st SL – 15th CB – 3rd

I won’t say you’re wrong if you decide to play Bauer in cash, but I do believe he has the clear worst matchup of the main two I’ll be using. The Braves were mid-pack through the season in K rate at 23.6% but Bauer is only off of Glasnow’s K rate by 2.2%. It’s not a sterling matchup for the pitch data either with the Braves being the best team against the fastball/cutter mix, 64% of Bauer’s pitches. The righty has also survived a 47.8% fly ball rate all year and the Braves were fourth in fly ball rate to RHP.

Bauer has held RHH to just a 0.26 HR/9, which is sparkling to say the least. Lefties have a 1.89 HR/9 (Freddie Freeman one-off) but they whiff at the higher rate, over 37%. Atlanta was top two in average, slugging, OBP, OPS, ISO, wOBA and wRC+ against RHP this season. There’s risk for Bauer, but he is MORE than capable of turning in a 30 DK point start.

Lance McCullers

Pitch Data – FB – 17th CB – 15th CH – 9th

The righty for the Astros is the ultimate GPP play for MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.30. He did throw 61 pitches on Saturday, but was kept on that count to pitch in this game. Can he go 100 deep? Maybe not but the price doesn’t really require that. If the Twins stick with the same lineup, they’ll have five LHH in it and that’s a plus for McCullers. He’s held them to a .281 wOBA overall with a 28.8% K rate. The Twins as a team whiff at the sixth-highest rate in the field, 25.5%.

McCullers does have some serious risk. When he’s been on the road this year, he’s gotten hammered to the tune of a 7.33 ERA with a .401 wOBA and a 1.54 HR/9. At his point, the Twins have to be feeling pretty tight with their postseason history. It has not gone well recently at all and that could play into an advantage for McCullers. The fears are the road splits and the pitch count. Houston has a rested bullpen for this one since they only used Framber Valdez yesterday. McCullers is only if you’re playing a few lineups.

Honorable Mention

Hyun Jin-Ryu – The Rays are a feast or famine team against lefties. They are top 10 in ISO, OPS, wOBA and wRC+ but they whiff at the highest rate in baseball at 28.5%. Ryu posted a 26.2% K rate and a .286 wOBA to RHH.

Monkey Knife Fight

I like the very first game of the day for our Counting K’s game on MKF. Even if there’s a few runs, you have talented pitchers and some decent K rates for the teams floating around. The 14.5 mark is my favorite, but as always be smart with the bankroll. Remember go to Monkey Knife Fight and use promo code WINDAILY to get a $50 matching bonus and 3 month FREE to Win Daily Sports!

Let’s get after it today my friends!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.25

We’re back after a day off and the last time we had an article, it went really well for the team! The only miss was Sixto Sanchez, which we didn’t have a big piece of in the first place. Even the Monkey Knife Fight prop smashed to a 5x return! This is the last Friday slate of the season and we’re looking to replicate the big day from Wednesday for MLB DFS: Starting Rotation 9.25!

Win Daily Gold is the key to your DFS success and has yielded over $2,500,000 in winnings for our subscribers. Now, thanks to our friends over at Monkey Knife Fight, you can get the gold for three months simply by making your first deposit on Monkey Knife Fight. To claim your FREE WinDaily Gold membership for three months, simply use promo code WINDAILY when making your deposit. 

For a limited time, Monkey Knife Fight is sweetening the deal with a 100% match bonus up to $50. Be sure to check out my picks for tonight after the pitchers!

Cash Options

Yu Darvish

Pitch Data – CT – 25th FB – 4th SL – 21st CB – 2nd

After seeing how chalky Shane Bieber was on Wednesday, I would expect Darvish to be the same in cash because the public didn’t fear the matchup. Tonight features fewer pivots as well, so I’m rolling Darvish in cash. As Brian pointed out in Picks and Pivots, the key for Darvish high the construction of the White Sox lineup.

There are a projected five right handers in the White Sox lineup with a cumulative K rate of 23.2%. Darvish has been lethal to that side of the plate with a .237 wOBA, .537 OPS, 0.36 HR/9 and a 43.3% K rate. There’s a little more danger than I prefer for this price since the Sox are 12th in ISO. However, there’s no reason to shy away from Darvish in cash and maybe not even GPP.

Dinelson Lamet

Pitch Data – FB – 11th SL – 1st

The pitch data isn’t kind to Lamet in this spot but it hasn’t held him back in this matchup. He whiffed seven in the first time he saw the Giants and is absolutely rolling with 32 strikeouts in the past three games. He’s scored at least 29 DK in all three games and this game is a double header, so the complete game bonus isn’t out of reach for Lamet. The overall K rate is through the roof at 35.2% and the hard hit rate is under 40%.

What really works for Lamet is the splits. His K rate is only 2% less to the left side but the rest of the stats are better to that side. LHH only have a .199 wOBA, .426 OPS and a .132 average. There’s five lefties projected for the Giants lineup. With a swinging strike rate of 14.4%, Lamet is an elite arm under $10,000.

Honorable Mention – Carlos Carrasco, though I prefer him in GPP myself

GPP Options

Jose Urquidy

Pitch Data – FB – 24th CH – 14th SL – 30th CB – 28th

If you decide to take the high/low approach in cash, Urquidy is your man. He’s got some oddball stats in 22.2 IP with just a 13.8% K rate after being above 20% at every level. I’m going to side with the track record here and the 30 DK points Urquidy scored against this Rangers lineup in he last matchup. The swinging strike rate is still a 10% compared with 12% through 41 IP in 2019. There’s not a giant reason the K rate should be so low and might just be some bad variance right now.

His hard rate is under 30% so even when hitters make contact, it’s not doing a ton of damage. The small concerns are the FIP is 4.33 and xFIP is 5.73 compared to the 2.78 ERA, but I believe Urquidy is more talented than he’s shown.

Brad Keller

Pitch Data – FB – 8th SL – 28th

Keller is a pretty uninspiring choice on most night and on his own merits. The K rate is just 15.5% with an 8.8% walk rate, which is a ratio we don’t normally target. Even the swinging strike rate doesn’t offer a lot of hope at 8.8% but he gets the #FlowChart matchup with the Tigers.

They’ve led the league in K rate to RHP at 28% basically from wire to wire this season and Keller does have some ceiling. Of his eight starts, he’s scored over 17 DK points. The reason he’s in GPP is because the other three starts have totaled 9.1 DK points. There’s tangible upside but this start can go sideways in a hurry.

Honorable Mention – Clayton Kershaw (not sure many will play him and he just posted 27 DK points in Coors Field)

Monkey Knife Fight

It’s not the best night to catch pitchers in the same game, so we’re just going to try and hit the best two arms on the slate. Take note that the numbers are higher, so the double up is the safest play on the board. Use you bankroll wisely if you go above he 16.5 mark. Remember go to Monkey Knife Fight and use promo code WINDAILY to get a $50 matching bonus and 3 month FREE to Win Daily Sports!

Let’s get after it tonight my friends!

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