MLBPremium MLB DFS: 7/28 Aces and Bases brgrewe@gmail.com 4 years ago written by brgrewe@gmail.com Hopefully, you all were on the Discord last night to catch all of our discussions that lead to a very nice night of cashing! Let's run it back today. The July 28th edition of Aces and Bases will take on the main MLB DFS slates on DraftKings and FanDuel. The purpose of this article is to identify our... 4 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
MLB MLB DFS: Monday’s Aces and Bases TimmySigs 4 years ago written by TimmySigs MLB DFS season is finally here and so is the Aces and Bases from Win Daily Sports. The July 27th edition of Aces and Bases will take on the main 9-game MLB DFS slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. The purpose of this article is to identify our top pitching plays and fades on the slate, in addition to our top offense stacks for your GPP lineups.Please make sure you keep an eye on the weather and other factors as those are always important things to monitor when playing MLB DFS. Be sure to check out our MLB DFS Projections as well. Without further ado, it’s Aces and Bases time.MLB DFS: The AcesBest Value: Pablo Lopez ($7,500 DK / $6,900 FD)Pablo Lopez takes the bump for the first time in 2020 and gets a favorable match up in the Baltimore Orioles. The Orioles bats played better than expected over the weekend in Boston, but the lineup is still lacking and shouldn’t be able to keep it up during the week.Lopez leans on his change up, and for good reason, it has great movement and produced a 46% O-swing rate last year. Look for Pablo to find strikeouts in Monday’s match up. Covid-Postponed.Honorable Mention: Josh JamesTop Ace(s) FanDuel: Tyler Glasnow ($8,900 DK / $9,700 FD) Glasnow and his curveball were absolutely electric in 2019 (57% K rate!) as the young hurler was off to a fantastic start before getting injured.Glasnow should be ready for almost a full workload Monday and looks to pick up where he left off in 2019 where started with a 1.78 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, and 76/14 K/BB ratio over 60 2/3 innings in 12 starts. Atlanta is a tough opponent but Glasnow was near match up proof before going down and he is just priced way too low at the moment.Honorable Mention: Josh James($8,600 DK / $6,700 FD)Punt Play: Asher Wojciechowski ($6,800 DK / $6,400 FD)The counter play to our value ace, Wojciechowski gets to take the bump against the Marlins, which is the main reason for this play. It’s hard to justify rolling out a Orioles pitcher but Asher has decent command of his fastball and showed some flashes with a few good outings last year. The price sure reflects this one. Covid-Postponed.Replacement: Wade MileyTop Fade: Jon Lester ($9,200 DK / $ 8,600 FD)Lester’s arsenal is rapidly declining, his signature cutter lost a lot of movement last year and his four seam fastball wasn’t effective is the slightest. The four seamer lost a couple ticks of velo that it didn’t have to give away, coming down to a career low 90.8mph. Im going to be fading Lester all year.Honorable Mention: Jake ArrietaMLB DFS: The BasesOn an 9-game slate, there are a ton of different ways to build your offense. Personally, I’m going to take a stand on a few offenses and call it a day. If you’re play MME style of GPPs, you can always get some exposure to more offenses, but for 3-Entry Max and Single Entry GPPs, I’m going to battle with a very limited player pool, as I really want to pick on a couple of starting pitchers and weaker bullpens. We all know the importance of stacking when play MLB DFS GPPs, so here are my top stacks for the Sunday main slate.Top StacksHouston Astros – Houston should have no problem teeing off against Kendal Graveman and the Mariners. This will be Graveman’s first start since the 2018 season as he missed all of 2019 down recovering from Tommy John. New York Yankees – The Yankees will be expensive all year and for good reason. The lineup is strong top to bottom and will be a good bet for a couple bombs against the aging Arrieta who lost a lot to his once great sinker.Value StacksCincinnati Reds– Playing with our fade here, the Reds have yet to turn it on offensively, dropping the opening series to the Tigers. Lester gives them chance to get some runs across the board early. New York Mets – The Boston staff is thin this year, and they are either rolling out an opener or Phillips Valdez, either way this looks like a great spot to attack.Good luck to all this week!Make sure you follow me on Twitter @TimmySigs and be sure to sign up for a ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return. 4 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
MLB MLB DFS: Saturday’s Aces and Bases TimmySigs 4 years ago written by TimmySigs MLB DFS season is finally here and so is the Aces and Bases from Win Daily Sports. The July 25th edition of Aces and Bases will take on the main 11-game MLB DFS slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. The purpose of this article is to identify our top pitching plays and fades on the slate, in addition to our top offense stacks for your GPP lineups.Please make sure you keep an eye on the weather and other factors as those are always important things to monitor when playing MLB DFS. Be sure to check out our MLB DFS Projections as well. Without further ado, it’s Aces and Bases time.MLB DFS: The AcesBest Value: Corbin Burnes ($6,200 DK / $5,700 FD)Alright, it’s risky, but he’s damn-near free. Burnes has always been a highly-touted prospect with ELITE swing-and-miss stuff. The problem is, he’s capable of walking the entire lineup and being pulled after two innings. Burnes posted a ridiculous 12.9 K/9 in his inconsistent 2019 season so you always need to keep an eye on him when he’s slated to start. He’s been lights out thus far in the Brewers’ “Summer Training” and exhibition match-ups and should offer a ton of upside at a low price tag against a Cubs’ lineup that is projected for over a 21% K-rate.Honorable Mention: Mike MinorTop Ace(s) FanDuel: Mike Clevinger ($10,400 FD) | Luis Castillo ($9,800 FD) | Lance McCullers ($8,500 DK / $8,000 FD)Clevinger, Castillo, and McCullers have juicy match ups for their opening performance of the 2020 season. Clevinger is facing off against a feeble Royals offense that shouldn’t put up much of a fight as a now healthy Clevinger should mow down batters on Saturday afternoon (just like Bieber did yesterday).Staying in the AL central for opponents, Castillo has a uninspiring Tiger lineup that finished the 2019 campaign with a team .240 BA and a sad .294 OBP. Expect Castillo to feed the big cats a steady diet of changeups and produce strikeouts.McCullers is simply priced way too low going up against a Seattle with an implied total of just 3.45 runs and a slate-high projected K-rate of over 24%. Keep this one simple and use McCullers.Honorable Mention: Zach Wheeler ($10,100 DK / $9,000 FD)Punt Play: Alex Wood ($7,800 DK / $7,600 FD)Alex wood was sitting below 90mph with his fastball last year, and keeping it in the zone about 50% it was hit around quite a bit. Woods has a reported uptick in velo this year which wood (heh) make the fastball much more appealing. His changeup and curve were useful last year, with his curveball just being a few swinging strike points lower (48% in 2020 to 54% in 2017) than his All-Star 2017 season. This looks like some good value against a woeful SF lineup. Top Fade: Steven Strasburg ($10,000 DK / $ 9,900 FD)The Nationals are coming off the ultimate high of winning it all in 2019, and Strasburg is primed for another great season, but this Yankee lineup is one to fade all season. I am staying away from the high price and deadly lineup. Honorable Mention: Lance McCullersMLB DFS: The BasesOn an 11-game slate, there are a ton of different ways to build your offense. Personally, I’m going to take a stand on a few offenses and call it a day. If you’re play MME style of GPPs, you can always get some exposure to more offenses, but for 3-Entry Max and Single Entry GPPs, I’m going to battle with a very limited player pool, as I really want to pick on a couple of starting pitchers and weaker bullpens. We all know the importance of stacking when play MLB DFS GPPs, so here are my top stacks for the Saturday main slate.Top StacksLos Angeles Dodgers – The dodgers get to beat up the Giants staff this week, the prices will be high, but with great value in pitching on the board over the weekend its possible to get a few of these bats in. Believe me, you want to get some of these bats in against SF.Houston Astros – The Astros face Taijuan Walker and I can’t think of anything positive to say about him. Houston feasts on fastballs and Walkers is bad, he also games a unreliable split finger that has a career -16pVal. Be aware of crooked numbers early and often courtesy of the Houston bats.Value StacksCincinnati Reds (FanDuel) – I love this reds team and the middle of their lineup is full of hitters that just take good at bats and have power to boot. With the additions of Castellanos and Moustakas the have as much fire power as they need. Cleveland Indians (FanDuel) – Sticking with the Franmil Reyes and the tribe over the weekend. You know who else to play from this Cleveland offense, but you can always sneak in salary savers like Domingo Santana, Jordan Luplow, and Cesar Hernandez if you need salary elsewhere.Good luck to all on this opening weekend!Make sure you follow me on Twitter @TimmySigs and be sure to sign up for a ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return. 4 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
MLBPremium MLB DFS: Friday’s Aces and Bases brgrewe@gmail.com 4 years ago written by brgrewe@gmail.com MLB DFS season is finally here and so is the inaugural Aces and Bases from Win Daily Sports. The July 24th edition of Aces and Bases will take on the main 11-game MLB DFS slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. The purpose of this article is to identify our top pitching plays and fades on the slate, in add... 4 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
MLBDaily Fantasy Sports MLB DFS Strategy: Is BvP Real? WIN 4 years ago written by WIN There may not be a bigger debate in the MLB DFS community than whether the idea of BvP is real or not. BvP has caused many arguments in the MLB DFS industry. Touts everywhere have had to draw a line in the sand and declare if they were on #TeamBvP or not. What is BvP? What is BvP? It stands for Batter vs Pitcher. Specifically it stands for a batter’s previous performance against a certain pitcher. While the past performance is indeed true, the question of using BvP in DFS goes much further. The real question is if a batter’s past performance against a certain pitcher is a predictor of what will happen in future match-ups. And if we should responsibly use the information for DFS lineup decisions. So is it real? So is BvP real in MLB DFS? The answer is it depends. While that is not a definitive answer, it is the right answer. Here is the truth about BvP: It can be used as a stat for lazy touts. These touts can easily reference BvP and it makes them look like they researched the match up and can recommend a player as a good play. But what we must ALWAYS remember is that correlation does not imply causation. On the other hand, BvP can also be used by very informed touts who are able to better find the correlation and causation to the success for a named batter. To better understand the difference, lets take a look at two cases of a batter and his history against two pitchers. Case 1: Mike Trout vs. Hyun-Jin Ryu In his career against left-handed Hyun-Jin Ryu, Mike Trout is 0 – for – 10 with four strikeouts according to Rotowire. If you are a strict BvP truther, there is no way you are building your DFS lineup around Mike Trout when Ryu is on the bump, right? But by now you should already be asking yourself if you should really be scared of Hyun-Jin Ryu. According to FanGraphs, Trout had a .294 ISO, ,408 wOBA and a 161 wRC+ against southpaws in 2019. Sounds like Trout has had plenty of success against lefties so are we still buying the BvP numbers against Ryu? While taking a look at Ryu’s 3.05 FIP and 3.44 xFIP versus righties in 2019 it is respective but certainly should not turn you immediately off Trout. Ryu’s splits in 2019 courtesy of Fangraphs And as you dig deeper into the numbers, specifically what Ryu’s pitch selection is, we will see that Trout is very likely long over due for some positive regression against the left-handed pitcher in their next match-up. According to Brooks Baseball, Ryu throw a fourseam fastball 24% of the time to right-handed batters in 2019. The southpaw also throw a change-up 31% of the time to righties last season. Trout Results and Averages courtesy of Brooks Baseball And don’t you know it, Trout had a .300 ISO against fourseamers and a .556 ISO versus the change in 2019 according to Brooks Baseball. All of a sudden, Trout’s 0-for-10 BvP versus Ryu isn’t so intimidating is it? In this case the correlation just doesn’t fit the causation. While this is probably another lesson for another day, but this is the perfect opportunity to get Trout at a lower ownership than normal because the lazy touts won’t think Trout is a slam dunk against Ryu because of a lousy 0-for-10 sample. Case 2: Mike Trout vs. Felix Hernandez When Felix Hernandez goes to sleep at night, he likely wakes up in a cold sweat courtesy of Mike Trout. The best player in baseball, and arguably MLB DFS, has had Hernandez’s number in their 88 at-bat lopsided battles. Mike Trout’s Career Numbers Versus Felix Hernandez courtesy of Rotowire The next time these two are to face-off, every DFS tout will be recommending Trout as perhaps the top play on the slate. And of course, they would be right. Consider though that many of those touts would just reference the BvP as the reason why. But once again, we will see that the correlation is not the causation. But instead, it is the type of pitcher that Hernandez is that leads to Trout’s success against him. Mike Trout’s 2019 Splits Versus Power/Finesse Pitchers courtesy of Baseball Reference Using the image above it is easy to see that Trout crushes against non-power pitchers as defined by Baseball Reference. And guess what? Hernandez hasn’t been a power pitcher in a long time. Felix Hernandez’s MPH Numbers Over the Last Two Seasons according to Baseball Savant In fact he has not averaged over 90 MPH on a pitch type in two seasons. So while Trout would be a great play next time he faces Hernandez, be sure to look past the BvP numbers and see the real reason why. MLB DFS: BVP Conclusion While using Mike Trout as an example might be extreme because he is the best hitter in baseball, none the less, these two examples should help you decide which side of the BvP battle you need to be on. You can use the same research process to debunk or confirm the use of a bad hitter with a good BvP history against a certain pitcher. The lesson here is simple: Dig deeper into the match-ups and numbers. Simply make sure the correlation implies the causation before you buy the hype from lazy touts.Be sure to check out our MLB Season-Long rankings! 4 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Daily Fantasy SportsMLB 9/19 DFS Hitting Picks and Stacks: Twins Will Get You Wins jason mezrahi 5 years ago written by jason mezrahi We’ve got a split slate for 9/19 DFS: DraftKings has a six-game slate that starts at 6:35, while FanDuel is excluding the Angels-Yankees again and starting a four-gamer at 7:05. We’re focusing on three stacks and just a couple contrarian builds, as well as our usual buffet of hitters at every position. Let’s get rolling, because the Yanks and Twins will get you wins!Sign up NOW for WIN DAILYPremium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info,24/7 expert chats and more!9/19 DFS Hitting Stacks ofthe DayMinnesota Twins vs. Mike MontgomeryThe Twins were a total dud on Wednesday night against the fullWhite Sox bullpen, scoring just one run on three hits across nine boringinnings. Today is a great day for a rebound, as the Royals left-hander can beexposed by hitters from both sides of the plate. Montgomery has been a reversesplits pitcher this season, yielding an amusing .443/.464/.709 slash toopposing LHBs. Over the course of his whole career, the disparity isn’t as noticeable.I like all the Twins here, since they brutalize lefties (.287/.353/.523 slash,.363 wOBA and a 127 wRC+) and will be starting my stacks with Eddie Rosario,Nelson Cruz and Mitch Garver (who’s an insane $5,600 on DK). Add in Miguel Sanoor C.J. Cron on FD and Jorge Polanco on DK.New York Yankees vs. Andrew Heaney (DK)I was little concerned about the Yankees rolling out an unorthodoxlineup with the division clinched, but Tampa came back and beat the Dodgers! They’llbe hungry for their 100th win of the season and thirsty forchampagne on their home turf, but they’ll be facing a left-hander who’s pitchedquite well in 2019. Their salaries are a little low because of the matchup, butHeaney isn’t enough to keep me off them. I’ll be using a lot of Mike Clevinger withMasahiro Tanaka/Kyle Gibson/Drew Verhagen, so there will be plenty of combosthat will allow me to stack D.J. LeMahieu ($4,600), Gleyber Torres ($4,700), AaronJudge ($4,500), Gio Urshela ($4,300) and Luke Voit ($4,400) though I’ll only begrabbing a few shares of Giancarlo Stanton at his outrageous price ($5,400)Toronto Blue Jays at Gabriel YnoaI said Tuesday the Blue Jays would be a sneaky stack, and CavanBiggio responded by hitting for the cycle. They’re not as sneaky this timearound, since they battled with Baltimore last night as the teams combined for21 runs. Ynoa is 1-8 with a 5.74 ERA and 1.40 WHIP, and he’s given up 25 homeruns in just 100.1 IP. All the usual suspects make sense here, with the 1-5hitters as the priority bats.9/19 DFS Hitting Stacks to Consider Cleveland Indians vs. Daniel Norris/Drew VerHagenSt. Louis Cardinals at Kyle Hendricks (contrarian) 9/19 DFS HittingCatcher Austin Romine, NYY vs. LAADK ($3,600)Pay $2,000 more for Mitch Garver on DK if you want, but if youwant some cheap exposure to the Yankees, blend Romine into your Yankees stacks.He’s slashing .281/.312/.438 this season and sports an impressive .172 ISO vs.LHPsthis season. Romine isn’t the most exciting option, but we need to save a littleit of salary somewhere, and if we’re not paying way up or Garver, Romine makessense.9/19 DFS Hitting FirstBaseman Rowdy Tellez or JustinSmoak, TOR at BALDK (both$3,900) FD ($2,600/$2,700) Since Tellez sat on Tuesday and ruined all my work recommendinghim, I’ll bring you up to speed: Rowdy scored three runs on Wednesday and isstill destroying right-handed pitching (.209 ISO this season). It’s usuallyeither him or Justin Smoak in the lineup, and I like them both in Baltimore’sbandbox. Smoak boasts a .231 ISO vs. RHPs in 2019.9/19 DFS Hitting SecondBaseman Cavan Biggio, TOR at BALDK ($5.300) FD($3,900) Biggio hit for the cycle on Tuesday and is the one Jays bat I wantin all my GPP lineups. I touted is speed and power abilities and he respondedby doing what five-tool platers do – mashing and slashing. Biggio is 14-for-29 overhis last seven games with 133 DK points over that span (19 FPPG). And his .112wRC+ this season is in the top 10 among 2B.9/19 DFS Hitting ThirdBaseman D.J. LeMahieu, NYY vs. LAA(DK $4,600)LeMahieu is having an MVP-caliber season for the Yankeeswith a wRC+ of 136 and a torrid slash line of .329/.378/.515. He’s ben their steadiestplayer and has flashed impressive power (.186 ISO) against both LHPs and RHPs. His.402 wOBA and 154 wRC+ in Yankee Stadium is tops on the team, and he’ll be inmost of my lineups tonight.9/19 DFSHitting Shortstop Gleyber Torres, NYY vs. LAADK ($4,700) Lindor was a complete disappointment Tuesday, so I’ll be goingback to him in about 2/10 lineups, but the rest of them will have shares of Torresat SS or 2B, where he’s also eligible. Torres has a .255 ISO, .353 OBP, .369wOBA and 132 wRC+ vs. LHPs in 2019, and he’s now hitting in the heart of the Yankeeslineup.Tired of losing money on yourDFS and Sportsbook? Sign up today and become a winner while turning your passion for sports into asecond stream of income! 9/19 DFS HittingOutfielders Eddie Rosario, MIN vs. KCDK ($4,800) FD($3,200) You can’t keep a great hitter down for long, and Rosario(.281/.313/.453 slash vs. LHPs in 2019) is a solid GPP play because he’ll onlybe in about half of the Twins stacks because he’s a lefty bat against a southpaw– a great opportunity against a guy like Montgomery. The Royals starter mightget pulled for a righty after he gets lit up by these Twins, and then your shortsightedDFS opponents will be kicking themselves for not having more exposure to Rosario’s.378 xwOBA against RHPs since 2018.Aaron Judge, NYY vs. LAADK($4,500)It’s hard to believe this price on Judge, who went deep again onWednesday, but it’s something I’ll be taking advantage of in cash games andGPPS alike. Judge brutalizes lefties, with a .461 wOBA in 120 PA this season,including .347/.467/.663 slash and 8 homers. He hits the ball as hard as anyonewho’s ever played the game, as he sits in the 100th percentile forExit Velocity and Hard Hit %. Get him in there – he’s primed for a monster day.Marcell Ozuna, STL vs. CHCDK ($4,200) FD($3,700) Ozuna has been relatively quiet lately, so he’s really cheap. Healso has .382 xwOBA this year and has been a much better road hitter this seasonwith a .262/.336/.519 slash and 15 of his 28 HRs in away games. Ozuna also ranksin the 93th percentile for Exit Velocity and 98th percentile forHard Hit % — and makes for a nice contrarian play vs. a capable hurler in Kyle Hendricks.Additional options:C: Reese McGuire ($3,900 DK, $2,800 FD), Mitch Garver ($5,600 DK,$3,000 FD)1B: Carlos Santana ($4,700 DK, $3,800 FD), C.J. Cron ($3,900 DK, $2,800FD)3B: Gio Urshela ($4,300 DK) Vladimir Guerrero Jr, ($4,100 DK,$2,900 FD)2B: Jonathan Villar ($4,800 DK, $3,600 FD), Luis Arraez ($4,200DK, $2,700 FD)SS: Bo Bichette ($5,400 DK, $3,900 FD), Jorge Polance ($4,800 DK, $3,300FD)OF: Whit Merrifield ($4,500 DK, $3,300 FD), Anthony Santander ($3,900 DK, $3,100 FD), Trey Mancini ($4,900 DK, $3,800 FD), Brett Gardner ($4,300 DK), Randal Grichuk ($4,500 DK, $3,000 FD), Dexter Fowler ($3,600 DK, $2,900 FD) 5 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
MLBDaily Fantasy Sports 9/5 DFS Hitting Picks and Stacks: Sporting Sox and Dinger Locks Joel Bartilotta 5 years ago written by Joel Bartilotta On our Thursday 9/5 DFS 7:05 main slate, there are seven ballgames – with one that stands out as a good single-game stack with a couple one-offs (a hot-hitting Cub and some RHBs on the lefty-mashing Houston buzzsaw). Are we ready to, once again, embrace the variance and win some green? You bet we are – and there’s enough pitching value to fade the top arms and build a lineup with serious studs.Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, weather reports, wagering info, 24/7 expert chatsand more!9/5 DFS Hitting Stacks of the DayBoston Red Sox vs. Martin PerezMost of this stack’s full-bodied components will be discussed hitterby hitter in greater detail below, but this is my top stack of the slate and I’llhave plenty of exposure to this game in general. The usual suspects apply. TheRed Sox are slashing a robust .285/.355/.506 at home this season and there’s nobodyI’d be careful to avoid.Minnesota Twins at Nathan EovaldiThe Twins have a little tougher matchup as they are underdogs inFenway Park, but they’d slashed .319/.384/.584 as a team over the past 7 daysheading into last night’s tough matchup vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (which resultedin a 6-2 loss). Look for the Twins to rebound in a big way against a hittable Eovaldi(6.23 ERA, 5.62 FIP). I like the outfielders (though Max Kepler was removedfrom last night’s game with upper chest soreness) and the slugging infielders (JorgePolanco, Miguel Sano, C.J. Cron, Luis Arraez).Houston Astros vs. Marco GonzalesJose Altuve, Alex Bregman and Yuri Gurriel make up the core of this stack, with Michael Brantley and/or Yordan Alvarez rounding it out on FD/DK. But if you’ve only got room for hitters like Aledmys Diaz, Abraham Toro and cheap catching option Robinson Chirinos, there’s still plenty of reason to get excited. The Astros has demolished LHPs this season to the tune of a 133 wRC+ and have great number sat home (.217 team ISO with just an 18.8% K rate – the second lowest in the league).9/5 DFS Hitting Stacks to Consider Chicago Cubs at Chase Anderson (Reverse splits pitcher and an implied total near 5 runs)Baltimore Orioles vs. Kolby Allard (high-risk/value/contrarian) Tampa Rays vs. Trent Thornton (high-risk/value/contrarian)9/5 DFS Hitting Catcher Jason Castro, MIN at BOS UPDATE: Castro is not in the starting lineupPIVOT: Robinson Chirinos, HOU vs. SEADK ($3,400) FD ($3,000)With Castro starting this game out on the bench, I’m pivoting to Chirinos. He’s about the same price and offers similar upside in this matchup. Chirinos sports a .444 xwOBA in 174 ABs (217 plate appearances) vs. LHPs over the past couple of seasons.9/5 DFS Hitting First Baseman Yuri Gurriel, HOU vs. SEADK ($4,300) FD ($3,600) Gurriel has cooled off a little bit since his insane July (.408/.437/.847 in 24 games), but not much, as he posted a .344/.423/.677 slash in August. He’s actually a little better against RHPs but maintains a .237 ISO vs. lefties, so he’s maybe a tad contrarian if you’re mini-stacking stacking Astros along with Boston bats. The .298 home ISO and 148 home wRC+ make him an attractive option.9/5 DFS Hitting Second Baseman Jose Altuve, HOU vs. SEADK ($4,500) FD ($4,300) Altuve (.302/.369/.599 with 14 HR at home this season) isunderpriced on DK and the Astros have the second highest implied total (about 6runs) on the evening slate. The diminutive slugger has been in a bit of a funk withno XBH on the five-game road trip, but a return to friendlier confines could bejust what he needs. It’s hard to find better implied value at this position, sowhy look past the five-and-a-half footer if we’re putting our best foot forward?9/5 DFS Hitting Third Baseman Rafael Devers, BOS vs. MINDK ($5,300) FD($4,100) Lefty on lefty for Devers hasn’t bothered me since he took AroldisChapman deep as a youngster for the Sox, and he’ll be an overlooked part of theBoston stack and low-owned because of it. He’s completely avoidable if you’renot stacking this team, but I love going with Devers at 3B because he’s alwaysin the thick of this offense and his production this season (.320/.369/.579 slashwith 29 HR and 107 RBI) shows it.9/5 DFS Hitting Shortstop Xander Bogaerts, BOS vs. MINDK ($5,300) FD ($4,100) We’ve had success recently with Bogaerts, and this is agreat matchup for the power-hitting SS to show off his .416 xwOBA against LHPs overthe past two seasons. Martin Perez isn’t a bad pitcher these days, but he has stillyielded a .184 ISO and .865 OPS since 2018. I’ve been doing well not overthinkingon Xander, so that’ll continue as I plug him into most of my lineups at SS. Thesomewhat underpriced Alex Bregman ($4,900 DK, $4,400 FD) is the obvious pivotat 3B and SS if you’re not anxious play both Devers and Bogaerts.Tired of losing money on your DFS and Sportsbook? Sign up today and become a winner while turning your passion for sports into asecond stream of income! 9/5 DFS Hitting Outfielders Mookie Betts, BOS vs. MINDK ($5,000) FD ($4,200) Bettshad a monster game last night and when Mookie gets hot, you continue to playhim. Boston’s leadoff hitter connected for a couple homers last night en routeto a 4-for-5, five RBI night. He’s still underpriced at $5K on DK and is a Benjamincheaper than J.D. Martinez on FD. Since the start of 2018, Betts is sporting anxwOBA of .430 against LHPs and even if Perez gets yanked early, a righthander faceseven more obscene Betts data (.468 xwOBA vs. RHPs and home xwOBA of .478). Nicholas Castellanos, CHI at MILDK ($4,500) FD ($3,500) Mr. Castellanos has taken the Windy City by storm, and he getsto travel to Milwaukee to hit in a controlled environment. The problem is thatthese walls cannot possibly contain him either, and he’s been a revelatory offensivepowerhouse since joining the Cubs in a deadline deal, slashing .346/.378/.709 witha ridiculous .362 ISO, .439 wOBA, 12 homers and 24 RBI in just 31 games. It’snot just Wrigley, either: the bell-ringer has split his dingers 6/6 betweenhome and road. Plus, he’s massively underpriced facing a reverse-splits righty (ChaseAnderson) on a small slate. It’ll be tough to leave him out in any format.Sam Travis, BOS vs. MINDK ($3,300) FD (1B $2,800) The Sox are my favorite team and Travis is much-welcomed valueto help you finish them off on FD with these four hitters I’ve listed, or even addin another bat on DK if you’re going that route. He hits lefties well (.382 xwOBA,.200 ISO and under a 20% strikeout rate over the past two seasons). He’s higherrisk and may attract some ownership, but at that low, low price I’ll make roomto differentiate elsewhere. Additional options:C: Wilson Contreras ($4,200 DK, $3,100 FD), Travis d’Arnaud($4,000 DK, $2,700 FD)1B: Josh Bell ($4,800 DK, $4,200 FD), Garrett Cooper (valueat $3,500 DK, $2,700 FD)2B: Jonathan Schoop ($4,600 DK, $3,100 FD), Starlin Castro($3,500 DK, $3,000 FD)3B: Abraham Toro ($2,600 DK, $3,200 FD, Miguel Sano ($5,100DK, $3,900 FD)SS: Alex Bregman, Jonathan Villar ($4,700 DK, $3,400 FD)and possibly Javier Baez (thumb, DTD – $4,600 DK, $4,100)OF: Twins galore (Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario, Nelson Cruz, JakeCave), Trey Mancini, Anthony Santander and Ryan Braun (.475 xwOBA vs. LHPs, 415ISO including five career HR vs. Jose Quintana) 5 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
MLB Stacking in MLB DFS: What You Need To Know Jason Mezrahi 5 years ago written by Jason Mezrahi You may hear people talking about “stacking.” Stacking is one of the most used and most talked about tournament strategies. Stacking is a great option to bet a strong lineup against a weak pitcher. Understanding that pitchers tend to do poorly with runners on base and that pitchers have bad days, taking as many batters from one team as the site allows, gives you the advantage to compound the scoring of your team exponentially.If you stack a few hitters in a lineup, big innings and rallies will catapult your lineup to the top of the leaderboard. The goal of a stack is to select the optimal grouping of three to five players from a team in hopes to blow up a starting pitcher early in the game and get into the opposing team’s weaker bullpen arms. It’s important to recognize the difference between FanDuel and DraftKings here, though. On FanDuel, you can only take up to four hitters from one team, while DraftKings allows you to choose up to five.Stacking can pay off in a couple specific ways. The standard strategy is to stack power hitters who hit opposite-handed from the starting pitcher they’re facing, since we know that players hit opposite-handed pitchers better than same-handed ones. The idea is that you can add points quickly with rallies with multiple extra-base hits.However, it’s a good idea to throw in some less-owned players from a stack in order to be different, especially if you believe you are attacking a popular stack. Same-handed hitters from that lineup could work because starters will be pulled if they give up too many runs early. An opposite-handed long reliever could likely take their place. This is an especially strong strategy for tournaments, as few people will have that hitter in their lineups. Taking a lesser-owned player is a good way to climb the rankings, as not many other players will get points off that player.You typically can’t afford the best four or five hitters in a strong lineup, but you can get the best two and choose a couple of the cheaper hitters in a lineup who have a good chance of being involved in the rally, especially if they have either some power or speed attributes.You can also take a gamble by stacking against a highly-owned pitcher in a tournament, because if your hitters have success, not only will you rack up points for their success, many other players in the tournament who own that pitcher will sink to the bottom of the leaderboard.There’s one extreme way to use stacking to your advantage. In GPP tournaments, you can stack every team in baseball, enter them all in, betting that one will make up for the losses of the rest. It’s not as easy as it sounds, though. Extreme multi-stacking can cost you a lot of time and money and still not guarantee you success. Even players rolling out hundreds of entries do not come close to covering every possible scenario. It just can’t be done. So, my suggestion is to find that one spot that you feel best about and hit it hard. You can also play what’s called a full-game stack. Let’s go back to our example of Wrigley Field on a hot humid day with the wind blowing out. If both pitchers throwing have a high FB% and HR/9 numbers, it would be a savvy play to take as many hitters from both teams as you can afford. Just make sure you don’t take the pitchers, too.Although stacking is very popular now, it’s not the only way to put together a strong lineup. If you have four hitters you can afford who are in the same lineup and in matchups they can benefit from, great. If you only have two that you really believe in and two you believe in that are on a different team, by all means set up a couple mini-stacks. Some of my most successful lineups have come from looking at the slate and choosing players across three or four teams. As with everything in DFS, there are so many different paths to success. Stacking absolutely works for some players, while for others, it may not be the way to go. 5 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
