MLB DFS Pitching

Starting Rotation 6.20

Sunday brings us a relatively small slate of nine games and the pitching is….fine, I suppose. I’m not sure it’s the best we’ll ever see but we’ve absolutely dealt with worse recently. It is another slate where I don’t have an overwhelming desire to pay the top-end salaries, but let’s discuss it in the Starting Rotation 6.20!

Starting Rotation 6.20

Taijuan Walker 

Maybe the greatness that is Jacob deGrom has rubbed off on Walker. Maybe it’s just a hot start to the season. It’s most likely some subtle changes to his pitch mix but regardless, Walker deserves to carry this price tag based on this season’s performance. He’s sporting a 2.12 ERA (the 3.84 xFIP is a bit scary for sure), his K rate is 26.9%, and the CSW is 30.2%. The swinging-strike rate won’t wow you at 9.6% but that is up almost 2% from 2020. Walker has started to use his sinker more and even though I generally despise that pitch, it’s mostly working for him. 

While it does carry a .316 wOBA, that’s a massive improvement over the .474 mark it had last year. It has held the velocity at 93 MPH but the four-seam is up near 95 MPH and it’s playing better with the sinker. Both pitches have bumped up in whiff rate and the four-seam has 37 of 72 strikeouts thus far. The only complaint I would have past the xFIP is the Nationals will likely have five righty hitters and the pitcher’s spot. On the year, Walker has a .264 wOBA to that side and his K rate dips to 22.7%. You can argue the ceiling could be tough to come by since Washington only whiffs 22.8% but Walker has been so good that I’m fine playing him today. 

Lance McCullers 

This play might seem odd, but it calls back to Brian’s Picks and Pivots Friday night since we can actually target the White Sox offense with righty pitching. McCullers came back from injury and threw 77 pitches last time out, so 90-95 seems like a very attainable count to hit this time. One of the most appealing facets is the ground ball rate for McCullers, which sits at 55%. That would be third in the league if he qualified and the White Sox are still scuffling with ground balls as they lead the league against righty pitching at 50%. The K rate is also 23.6% so there’s absolutely room here to put up a big score. 

McCullers is fairly even across the splits as neither side of the plate is above a .284 wOBA and both whiff at least 25.5% of the time. Chicago likely has five righties and they have produced a 61.7% ground ball rate. With all three of the curve, change, and slider producing a whiff rate above 33.5%, I like McCullers here and doubt he’s very popular. 

JT Brubaker 

This is an interesting spot because Brubaker hasn’t been great lately but he’s had some tough draws. Cleveland isn’t the scariest offense ever and losing the DH doesn’t hurt Brubaker at all. I grant you that Cleveland doesn’t strike out a ton at just 22.6% but do how many strikeouts do we need at this salary? The answer is not a ton and 5-6 can make it work provided Brubaker controls the rest of the game. Cleveland ranking seventh against the slider is notable, but they are also just a hair into the negatives. Brubaker’s slider has been pretty good as well with a 37.1% whiff rate and 33 of 63 strikeouts. I don’t want to make it out as an elite pitch because it does have a .333 wOBA and has given up five home runs but at least Cleveland is outside of the top 12 in OPS and ISO. Brubaker is also a little better to the left side of the plate with a .307 wOBA and 0.95 HR/9. I’m not totally in love here but if you want big bats, you’ll have to take some chances. 

Kenta Maeda 

This will almost surely be the most popular player on the slate because Maeda came back from injury and posted 17 DK points on 76 pitches. It’s easy to just throw the result out there but to me, there is strong reason to buy into Maeda past the fact DK knocked his price down $1,100 for no real reason. When we pull up the breakdown, it’s not hard to see some serious improvement on his CSW% and the whiff rate. 

On the season, the CSW is just 28% so Maeda saw a bump of nearly 6%. He also generated 12 whiffs on 33 swings, which is excellent to see. What is even more impressive about this is his velocity wasn’t quite back yet as every pitch was down about 0.5-1.0 MPH. Even with the struggles Maeda had to start the year, he still has a 24.5% K rate to lefty hitters and a 3.49 xFIP. If he continues to show he’s healthy, this should be the cheapest 20 DK on the board and a borderline free square in one of your pitcher slots. 

Starting Rotation 6.20 Honorable Mention 

Sean Manaea – My biggest gripe about paying top dollar is it becomes more difficult to afford some expensive stacks that I like and I’m not sure this is the best ceiling spot for Manaea. The Yanks have the ability to throw nine righties at him and on the year, righty hitters have a .333 wOBA, 19% K rate, and a 4.41 ERA. With all of that plus pitching in Yankee Stadium, he’ll be a pass for me. 

Nathan Eovaldi – If the stats for this year hold up, it’s not the best spot for Eovaldi but neither was his last start against Toronto. He has a .348 wOBA against righties which could be problematic against the Royals (not to mention they don’t have a big K rate at just 22.2%) but it has to be noted that the BABIP for righties is .378. If that normalizes instead of the wOBA holding up, Eovaldi has a path to another 18-20 DK points today. 

Jordan Montgomery – Perhaps the ultimate GPP play today, Montgomery has been a dynamo and he’s gotten obliterated. Oakland is very good to lefties with a top-eight rank in OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+. However, they also whiff 24.2% of the time which is 10th. Montgomery also has a 23.6% and a 41% ground ball rate so he has the toolkit. It’s just not a spot that I’m going out of my way to play. 

Starting Rotation 6.20 Stacking Options

• Blue Jays against Matt Harvey 
• Mets against Patrick Corbin 
• Astros against Dallas Keuchel
• Orioles against Hyun Jin Ryu
• Pirates against Sam Hentges

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 6.20 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Starting Rotation 6.18

I feel like we say this somewhat often anymore but for a 15 game slate, pitching is far from ideal tonight. The only two legitimate aces are in pretty tough spots and the second tier has issues as well. Even at high salaries, the risk is going to be higher than normal and we’ll do our best to dodge the grenades. Let’s get into the Starting Rotation 6.18 and see who’s going to toe the rubber for us tonight to help get to the green! 

Starting Rotation 6.18 – Main Targets 

Jose Berrios 

It should tell you something that Berrios is the first man in the article. He is Mr. Inconsistency but it can be argued he inherits the best spot for a pitcher tonight. Depending on what day you look, Texas hovers between second and sixth in K rate at about 26%. Berrios himself is right at 26% which would be the highest of his career even if it’s not by a whole lot. What is interesting is the walk rate of 6.4% which has helped the WHIP come down to 1.09. It’s never been below 1.14 before so that is notable. What isn’t all that fun is the swinging-strike rate is down to 10.4% but on this slate, I’m not sure how picky we can be. 

The downright scary part of this matchup is the lefty hitters. Texas likely plays five lefties and Berrios has gotten smacked by them so far with a .395 wOBA, 1.91 HR/9, a 1.52 WHIP, and a 4.18 xFIP. Those numbers come with a .348 BABIP so they likely won’t continue to be as poor as they look but that’s not what you’re looking for here. His curve is always the key since he throws it the most and it does have a .227 wOBA and a 37.5% whiff rate. The issue comes from the four-seam and the .398 wOBA it carries. The lefty metrics make a lot more sense when you realize that is his primary pitch to the left side of the plate and it only has an 18.2% whiff rate. If Berrios isn’t chalky, I’ll be happy to bail on him and not play him but with his DK salary, I’d be surprised if he’s not very popular. 

Carlos Rodon 

Something has to give here because Rodon has been out of this world and the Astros are one of the toughest offenses against lefty pitching. If Rodon qualified, his fastball would rank third and his slider would rank sixth in FanGraphs rating and it is not difficult to see why. Those pitches have combined for 95 strikeouts and both have a whiff rate over 31% and a wOBA under .235. The slider especially has been nasty with four hits allowed out of 27 BBE and zero home runs. It’s a definitive strength-on-strength battle since Houston is the best team in baseball against the slider and it’s not like the rest of the matchup gets any easier for Rodon. 

While he does boast a 37.2% K rate and a 16% swinging-strike rate, Houston simply does not whiff to lefties. Their K rate as a lineup is 17.2% and the next lowest team is the Orioles (hint hint) at 20.9%. They also rank in the top three in average, OBP, slugging, OPS, wOBA, and wRC+. Oddly, they are 13th in ISO but even if they lack top-end power they still hit lefties at an elite level. Rodon is dead even in K rate to both sides of the plate at 37.2% and the xFIP to righties is only 2.98. You could argue this is the toughest offense he’s faced so far even with the Astros being down Alex Bregman, and the tough matchup is one of the main reasons I suspect Berrios to be chalky. 

Corbin Burnes

I’ll be honest, the only pitch that matters a ton to me in pitch data for opposing teams against Burnes is the cutter and Colorado doesn’t look like a giant threat in that metric. We saw Woodruff go very low-owned last night (and get hammered) and I could see Burnes being the same way tonight coming off a poor fantasy start against the Bucs last time out. He was uncharacteristically wild last time with three walks and eight hits allowed, but he also got BABIP’d to death in that start. He still whiffed eight hitters in just four innings and the K is King.

His HR/9 is 0.28, the xFIP is 1.76, the FIP is 1.01, and his ground ball rate is 50.8% on the season. These are elite metrics across the board and he has one of the best cutters in baseball. It has 58 strikeouts, a 34.4% whiff rate, and a .266 wOBA thus far which is excellent. Burnes should face a balanced lineup but and strikes out righties at a 47.9% rate. Even with the Coors effect, I’m loving that. Lefties are the “worse” side but they still whiff 35.2% of the time and only have a .260 wOBA. It’s an elite pitcher in a terrible park and what is generally a poor offense, so I think we can take some chances here. Just understand the floor is low. 

Robbie Ray 

If I’m forced to guess, I think Ray and Berrios would be the chalk combo tonight. Ray is still not super pricey for what he’s been accomplishing on the field this season, including a 32.1% K rate. This spot definitely has issues, however. As we alluded to earlier, Baltimore has the second-lowest K rate to lefties in baseball. It does help a little that Baltimore is also in the bottom half of the league against the fastball and that’s been the money pitch for Ray as far as strikeouts go. It has 43 of 92 but the bad news is it has given up 10 home runs and has a .332 wOBA. Of the 16 bombs Ray has surrendered, 14 have come from the right side of the plate and Baltimore could roll out eight righties while sitting 10th in ISO against lefty pitching. The xFIP to righties is just 3.25 but I believe that might be a touch misleading. He’s always going to have an elevated HR/FB rate with the amount of four-seam fastballs he pumps in. Much like Berrios, I’d play Ray in cash if I need to but would be looking elsewhere in other formats. 

Starting Rotation 6.18 Honorable Mention – This section is a little larger than normal since the slate is without any slam dunk plays. 

James Kaprielian – I have the same concerns with Kaprielian as we’ve had the past few starts – the 4.88 xFIP tells a much different story than the 2.51 ERA. Still, he does have a .211 wOBA to righty hitting along with a 31.9% K rate. The Yankees have struggled mightily as an offense with a 25.5% K rate and ranking mid-pack in ISO, OPS, and wOBA. 

Yusei Kikuchi – He’ll either get smacked or put up 25 DK points and I’m not sure exactly which one. The rust isn’t there but the Rays whiff against lefty pitching at a 28.3% rate and rank 25th in ISO, 26th in OPS, 24th in wOBA, and 23rd in wRC+. Kikuchi features a 51.6% ground ball rate and a 25.7% K rate and the 3.54 xFIP to righties isn’t terrible either. The range of outcomes is wild here, leading Kikuchi to not be mentioned as one of the main targets. 

Trevor Bauer – I should at least mention him but there’s a 0% chance I’ll play Bauer. I’m just shocked, shocked I tell you to see his performance go in the tank right when the scandal about sticky stuff started. Bauer has given up 12 earned runs in the last four starts and hasn’t cleared 19.4 DK points. 

Jose Urena – I almost got nuts and wrote him up since the Angels are so righty heavy. He’s got them at a .310 wOBA but what held me back was the Angels are 27th in ground ball rate on the year. I’d much rather use Urena when the ground ball rate potential is there because the K upside isn’t. The Angels are whiffing over 25% of the time so perhaps just a share or two in MME formats. 

Starting Rotation 6.18 Stacking Options 

• Red Sox against Jackson Kowar (Any Boston Hitter in the lineup)
• Twins against Mike Foltynewicz (Jorge Polanco, Alex Kirilloff, Nelson Cruz, lefties at the bottom of the lineup)
• Giants against Vince Velasquez (Brandon Belt, Mike Yastrzemski, Brandon Crawford, LaMonte Wade Jr., Buster Posey)
• Cardinals against Max Fried (Nolan Arenado, Tommy Edman, Paul Goldschmidt, Tyler O’Neill, Yadier Molina)
• A’s against Jameson Taillon (Matt Olson, Mark Canha, Seth Brown, Ramon Laureano, Mitch Moreland if Olson is too pricey)

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 6.17 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Starting Rotation 6.13

It’s a Sunday in the major leagues and we have 11 games on tap today. There is likely to be a strong argument to go double ace in cash and find some bats that will work with them but that doesn’t mean we don’t have some interesting pitchers lower in salary. Let’s find out who makes the most sense for Starting Rotation 6.13 and lay those foundations for green screens! 

Starting Rotation 6.13 – Main Targets 

Shane Bieber 

Bieber has honestly not been worth the hefty price tag a lot this year, with seven of his last 10 starts finishing under 25 DK points. The last time he saw this Seattle team they touched him up for three runs and forced him to throw 103 pitches through 4.2 IP. We’ve talked a few times about how Bieber has been easier (relatively speaking) to hit this year but the ERA/FIP/xFIP combo is all under 2.90 so it’s hard to get too upset for real life. This is fantasy and we have to consider what we pay to play Bieber and his 34.4% K rate, down almost 7% from 2020. 

Bieber is still more than capable of big games and the spot should in theory be great for strikeouts. They have moved up to the fifth-worst K rate against righty pitching at 25.6% this season. The wOBA for lefties looks a touch high from an ace quality pitcher but Bieber is getting hurt by the BABIP gods with a .370 mark. The good news is the K rate is still 38.2% to that side and Seattle should feature five lefties. I believe you eat the (probable) chalk in cash, but I also believe he’s not an absolute must-play in GPP. 

Carlos Rodon

The main reason I don’t believe Bieber is an absolute must is right here. Rodon has been outstanding the entire season to this point with really just two poor starts. Detroit’s K rate to lefties has come down from the early part of the season but they still lead baseball at a 29.6% rate. Rodon himself is at a 37.1% rate and a 16.2% swinging-strike rate. Those would rank around seventh and second among pitchers if he qualified. The four-seam is almost three MPH higher than last year and the slider is two MPH better.

Considering they have combined for 86 of 88 strikeouts, are both over a 29.5% whiff rate, and neither has a wOBA over .242, I’d say the velocity is making a difference. Rodon’s slider would rank seventh in FanGraphs ratings if he qualified and that pitch has been fantastic. Righty hitters only have a .260 wOBA against Rodon this year and the xFIP is only 2.94. Rodon has yet to see the Tigers lineup but I’m quite excited to play him here. 

Robbie Ray 

If you’ve played MLB DFS for any length of time, you know that lefty pitchers against the Sox are almost never the path to take. Normally, that has been accurate but a trend is emerging this season that points in the other direction. Not only has Boston lost Mookie Betts, but J.D. Martinez is not doing his usual work against lefties. On the season, Boston is 29th in fly ball rate (which is a huge help for Ray), 17th in OBP, 14th in slugging, 16th in OPS, 22nd in ISO, 17th in wOBA, and 19th in wRC+. If I just gave you those ranks and didn’t tell you the team name, you wouldn’t be sweating the matchup all that much. The reputation for the Red Sox has been far better than performance so far in 2021 and Ray has been mostly lights out this year. He’s been one of the most fascinating stories of the season in my eyes. 

Ray has 39 strikeouts on the four-seam which is the most of any pitch and even though it does give up some home runs, the tradeoff has worked. His xFIP is only 3.03 since the HR/FB rate is 24.2% but one of the largest shifts has been in the walk rate. Ray has never even sniffed a 5.7% walk rate in his career and the 31.2% K rate is right up there with his best numbers. He just got through being an absolute buzz saw against the White Sox lineup, which has been excellent to lefties this season. Since the HR/FB rate is so high, it’s great to see Boston not getting balls into the air against lefties and I believe Ray should be in line for another good game here. 

Framber Valdez 

This is yet another spot that we wouldn’t normally want a piece of, but the circumstances around Valdez are unique. Minnesota is inside the top 10 in about every metric we value offensively against lefties but they also strike out at the 10th highest rate. Not only that, the Twins are currently without Byron Buxton, Mitch Garver, and Kyle Garlick. Those three hitters represent three of the top four ISO marks against lefties this season for the Twins. Buxton and Garlick are both over a .375 wOBA as well, so the lineup is not as good as the seasonal data suggests right now. 

Valdez himself has only thrown 18.1 innings on the season so far but they have been dominant. The xFIP is 2.18, the ERA is 1.47, the K rate is 29.3%, and the WHIP is only 0.87. His curveball has been out of this world early with a .076 wOBA and a 50% whiff rate. Valdez has also held righties to just a .217 wOBA thus far and is whiffing them at a 30.6% rate with a 1.99 xFIP. With Minnesota having some holes in the lineup, I’m interested. 

Tony Santillan 

MLB Debut 

Well, we’ve been down this road before but here we go again. Rookie debuts can go horribly wrong at any moment but the Rockies are on the road and they are a different offense. Santillan has a fastball that sits about 94 MPH but it can get up to 97-98 MPH to go with the slider as the “out” pitch. He also has a changeup but that pitch can come and go on him so I don’t expect him to utilize it very much. We have to really like the Rockies ranking 29th against the slider and they strike out over 27% on the road to righty pitching. Santillan has really found his way through 32.1 IP in the minors this year with a 34.4% K rate and a 3.53 xFIP and the former is a major weapon. The low end of salary today looks pretty tough, so Santillan checks in as low as I would go. 

Starting Rotation 6.13 Honorable Mention 

Domingo German – It worked out horribly for Taillon yesterday but German is better to righties with a .280 wOBA and a 25.2% K rate. 

Pablo Lopez – The matchup is scary but Pablo Lopez looks like a Cy Young candidate when he’s pitching in Miami. 

Starting Rotation 6.13 Stacking Options 

• Cleveland against Logan Gilbert (Jose Ramirez, Bobby Bradley, Cesar Hernandez, Eddie Rosario)
• Giants against Joe Ross (Brandon Crawford, Mike Yastrzemski, Brandon Belt, LaMonte Wade Jr.)
• White Sox against Logan Shore (Yoan Moncada, Adam Eaton, Jose Abreu, Tim Anderson, Yermin Mercedes)
• Brewers against Wil Crowe (Willy Adames, Luis Urias, Christian Yelich, Dan Vogelbach, Avisail Garcia)
• Blue Jays against Martin Perez (Vlad Jr., Bo Bichette, Teoscar Hernandez, Randal Grichuk, Marcus Semien)

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 6.13 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

Starting Rotation 6.12

Saturday is a little bit of a wonky day as we do get a split slate day but a whopping 11 games are in the afternoon. The evening slate looks dreadful for pitching outside of Trevor Bauer so we’re going to focus on breaking down the 11 game slate that is today’s main option. Hopefully, you’re ready to eat some chalk today because there is one very clear ace option in Starting Rotation 6.12 we need to be heavily interested in! 

Starting Rotation 6.12 – Main Targets 

Corbin Burnes 

We talked yesterday about Brandon Woodruff and that didn’t exactly work out as he had a very pedestrian start compared to his capabilities. It needs to be said that Burnes has been far better than Woodruff in any given category. He’s over a 42% K rate on the season with a 0.97 FIP, 1.71 xFIP, and a 1.97 ERA. The barrel rate is 4.2% and when teams do make contact, Burnes has a 50.8% ground ball rate. That would rank eighth in the league if he qualified and the 18.5% swinging-strike rate would be behind only Jacob deGrom. Lastly, Burnes has a 36.3% CSW and that would lead all of baseball. Basically, if deGrom wasn’t having his historical season (please be alright), Burnes would be widely recognized as a top-five pitcher right now. On paper, there is no other option on this slate that matches the upside as he’s coming off a 43 DK point start. 

Joe Musgrove 

I’m not as worried about the pitch data since Musgrove is kind of all over the board here and doesn’t lean on anything in a major way. The Mets offense is still hurting and for a few innings, Musgrove was going toe-to-toe with deGrom in the last start. It unraveled a bit but Musgrove has been beyond expectations this season. The ERA, FIP, and xFIP are all under a 2.95 mark and the K rate is a career-high of 34.2% while the walk rate is only 5%. Musgrove is also generating a 14.6% swinging-strike rate and the WHIP is only 0.84. 

His slider and curveball are both under a .180 wOBA and both are over a 35% whiff rate, with the cutter lagging. Truthfully, the cutter hasn’t done him a lot of favors this year with the worst wOBA and average given up among his pitch types. Having said that, he has both sides of the plate under a .275 wOBA and both sides are over a 31.5% K rate. The salary is a touch high but such is the state of the slate today. 

Wade Miley 

Miley gets the fortune of catching Colorado on the road, and that means he faces a totally different offense. The Rockies are 23rd in OBP, 24th in slugging, 25th in OPS, 22nd in ISO, and 25th in wOBA and wRC+. That mess of a package comes with the fourth-highest K rate of 27.5% which should help the 21.1% K rate from Miley himself. The 9.5% swinging-strike rate and the 25.5% CSW don’t particularly jump off the page, but the venue of the game (yes, Cincinnati is better than Coors) does Miley a world of good. Miley should be facing six righties and the pitcher spot, which certainly works for him. He’s given up a .279 wOBA and a .60 HR/9 to that side of the plate with a 3.36 xFIP. Another aspect that pushes Miley into consideration is the ground ball rate, which is 59% to righties. That’s exactly what we want to see when targeting a pitcher in Cincy and we always love Rockies Road matchups (and ice cream). 

Jameson Taillon 

Let’s. 

Get. 

Nuts. 

The overriding goal of Starting Rotation is to present options, ranging from safe to risky so you can build lineups around the pitching, pending on how risky you want to get. That’s why we added Honorable Mention because if you guys disagree about one of my picks, you can pivot to someone you like better. I also like trying to find that one gem that the field may possibly skip. Pitching Taillon today is 100% not for everyone, and I totally get it. How often does a pitcher with an ERA over 5.00 grab a coveted feature spot in the article? I mean, it’s way too late to go back and research that number but let’s say not many and call it square. 

So, why am I looking at Taillon? There are a few specific metrics that have him match up very well against Philly. For starters, the K rate is a career-high 25.8% and Philly is eighth in K rate to righties at 25.5% so that checks a box. Taillon isn’t getting hit all that hard at a 29.5% hard-hit rate and his xFIP is a much more palatable 4.35 than the 5.09 ERA. He’s also generating a 13.2% swinging-strike rate, which is a top 20 mark in the majors. Some things are going right for Taillon and the four-seam fastball is at the center of it with 41 of 58 strikeouts. It has yielded a .326 wOBA but also carries a 32.5% whiff rate and Philly is one of the worst teams against it. 

Lastly, the splits for Taillon are exactly what he needs to survive the Philly lineup. To righties, he’s giving up a .277 wOBA, 3.76 xFIP, and a 0.91 WHIP. He should see six and the pitcher’s spot in the normal Phillies lineup. Lefties crush him for a 2.31 HR/9, 5.10 xFIP, and a .382 wOBA. So if you don’t play Taillon today, play Philly lefties including Odubel Herrera and Byrce Harper. With everything we talked about and Philly ranking 27th in fly ball rate to righties (that helps offset a fly rate over 48% from Taillon), he has a clear, if narrow, path to success today. 

Starting Rotation 6.12 Honorable Mention 

Rich Hill – I went to give him a full breakdown until I noticed he’s thrown under 60 pitches in the past two starts. Looking back through Marc Topkin’s (Marc is an awesome guy on Twitter) work for the Tampa Bay Times, it was easy to find that manager Kevin Cash was content with Hill going five strong and going with the bullpen. If Hill gets 90+ pitches, he could dominate but there’s a serious risk. 

Alex Cobb – We want lefty-heavy offenses when considering Cobb and Arizona fits that bill for sure. He’s smacking the left side of the plate around this season with a 27.7% k rate, 2.84 xFIP, 1.02 WHIP, and a .234 wOBA. I’m not totally in love with the price and Cobb has shown he can get blown up in any start, but he shouldn’t be totally ignored. 

Yusei Kikuchi – I do prefer Miley right in this salary, but they are somewhat interchangeable. Cleveland only whiffs to lefties at a 23% rate but Kikuchi does boast a 25.9% K rate himself. The 1.76 HR/9 is a bit ugly but the HR/FB rate is 25% and the xFIP is only 3.38. Like Miley, Kikuchi generates ground balls at a good clip of 49.7% and Cleveland is ninth in that metric at 45.9%. 

German Marquez – I’d bet Marquez is way more popular than Taillon and that will be interesting to see how it shakes out. I suppose the largest issue in my eyes is Marquez only strikes out lefties at a 21.3% rate as opposed to 29.8% to righties on the road. The Reds are balanced typically between lefties and righties but don’t be surprised if he’s popular with the field. 

Starting Rotation 6.12 Stacking Options

Before we hit the options, I need to apologize so everyone to read. Yesterday, I had the Angels listed as a stacking option against Brady Singer which is cool….except for Singer was pitching against the Oakland A’s. It was a very poor mistake on my part and the community deserves better. I didn’t catch it until I sat down to write Friday night, and that was 100% on me. Hopefully, it didn’t cause too much confusion and I’ll continue to put the best foot forward in covering these slates without a giant-sized error like that again. 

• A’s against Jackson Kowar (The rookie Royals pitcher didn’t get out of the first inning, all hands on deck for the A’s with Matt Olson, Mark Canha, Seth Brown, Sean Murphy, and Mitch Moreland at the forefront). 
• Braves against Zach Thompson (Ronald Acuna, Freddie Freeman, Austin Riley, William Contreras, Ozzie Albies)
• Brewers against Chad Kuhl (Willy Adames, Avisail Garcia, Omar Narvaez, Dan Vogelbach, Luis Urias) – note – I left of Christian Yelich just due to price as I would just play Acuna
• Red Sox against Steven Matz (Xander Bogaerts, Hunter Renfroe, J.D. Martinez, Bobby Dalbec, Rafael Devers)
• Yankees against Vince Velasquez – I know the Yanks haven’t hit that well but VV has a 99.2% strand rate to righty hitting. The FIP is over 6.00 and he has a 2.30 HR/9. Something has to give. I’m looking at Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Miguel Andujar as opposed to a massive stack. 

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 6.12 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!