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Starting Rotation 6.11

Adam Strangis
written by Adam Strangis

Starting Rotation 6.11

After a split Thursday slate that Brian was nice enough to cover for me, we are back for a full Friday night slate! It’s National Jacob deGrom Day and we will certainly be celebrating with everyone else. At the first glance, it doesn’t appear to be the slate to spend down on pitching. The largest question is where are we heading in Starting Rotation 6.11 to pair up with the best pitcher in the game so let’s get to work!

Starting Rotation 6.11 – Main Targets 

Jacob deGrom

I wasn’t planning on saying much about deGrom. When he plays, we play him and we all know this by now. Then I opened the slate for the night and it’s not even a discussion. Max Scherzer got rained out Thursday night, so he will pitch tonight and DK has priced him higher than deGrom. The Mets righty leads the majors in everything we value and this would be one of the most statistically dominant seasons in baseball history if deGrom can keep this up.

He should be over $13,000 every slate, akin to Russell Westbrook at the end of this NBA season. If he was, it makes you at least calculate if it’s worth paying the price. When he’s not even the priciest option on the board? I would play deGrom ahead of Scherzer in every format, 100 times out of 100. 

Brandon Woodruff 

Pirates Ranks vs Pitch Types – FB – 30th SL – 16th CB – 28th CH – 12th

If you decide to take the path of double ace and spend down on hitters, Woodruff would certainly check that box. His 1.42 ERA isn’t terribly far off from his 2.20 FIP and 2.68 xFIP and Woodruff has a 0.47 HR/9 against the team that is ranked dead last in ISO. The 4.7% barrel rate is excellent and backs up the 26.3% hard-hit rate. Additionally, the fastball is ranked as the best one in the majors on FanGraphs and Pittsburgh is dead last against that pitch. Granted, he’s only throwing it about 35% of the time but the four-seam also has 57 strikeouts so far with a .160 wOBA and a 31.5% whiff rate. 

The Pirates lineup is balanced with generally four of each hitter plus the pitcher spot but with Woodruff, it likely doesn’t even matter. Both sides of the plate are either at a .197 wOBA or a .191 wOBA and neither side is above a .155 average. The K rates are above 30% for both sides and the WHIP is under 0.85 as well. There’s nothing to pick on here for Woodruff and on most slates, he’d be in the running for the SP1 spot.

Shohei Ohtani 

D-Backs Ranks vs Pitch Types – FB – 21st SF – 6th CT – 19th SL – 22nd

We got to see Ohtani at his best in the last start when he racked up over 30 DK points and whiffed 10 hitters across just 76 pitches. Perhaps the best facet we saw from Ohtani was zero walks because that has been one of his largest issues this season. The K rate of 34.1% has only been rivaled by a 14.8% walk rate. Ohtani hasn’t been getting hit hard with a 5.7% barrel rate and a 31% hard-hit rate and he has the looks of an elite ace pitcher aside from the high walk rate. Both the swinging-strike rate of 14.4% and the CSW of 31.2% would be inside the top 15 if Ohtani qualified. His biggest weapon continues to be the splitter, which is just a video game pitch. 

The splitter is thrown more to lefties than righties at a 92-46 rate so far, which is huge when we consider the lefty-heavy Arizona lineup. Ohtani’s splitter has 41 of 60 strikeouts, a .069 wOBA, and a 63.9% whiff rate. The odd part about all those stats is the left side of the plate strikes out at a much lower rate of 27% compared to 43.3% to the righties. Lefties also carry a 4.51 xFIP so there is some concern with Ohtani, but the price remains far too low for the ceiling. 

Charlie Morton 

Marlins Ranks vs Pitch Types – CB – 21st FB – 22nd CT – 10th

Playing Morton on the right night this season has been….maddening, to say the least. His 4.21 ERA is not totally in line with the 3.27 xFIP and the 3.64 FIP and Ground Chuck has a 27.2% K rate with a 49.1% ground ball rate. Morton is also getting hit hard only 25.5% of the time and it seems like the bad luck has really found him so far this season. His .310 BABIP would be the highest full-season rate since 2016, and his swinging-strike rate of 11.7% is almost totally in line with the past few seasons. It’s interesting to note that of 72 total strikeouts, 61 have come from the four-seam/curve combo. Miami is sitting inside the bottom 10 against each pitch and the curve has over a 43% whiff rate. 

We’ve generally not played Morton very much and on a slate this loaded up top, maybe you don’t have to. However, if you’re attempting to fit some more expensive stacks he’s cheap enough to get a strong look here. Miami is 23rd or worse in OPS, ISO, and wOBA and that comes with the fifth-highest K rate in the league at 25.9%. Morton is also better to righties with a .293 wOBA and the normal Marlins lineup has five plus the pitcher spot. Being in Miami doesn’t hurt either and Morton could be a fairly cheap 20+ DK points tonight. 

Tarik Skubal

White Sox Ranks vs Pitch Types – FB – 8th SL – 3rd CH – 4th

Skubal is absolutely the most dangerous player in the article tonight, so let’s be upfront. I don’t always love pitchers facing the same team twice in a row, the White Sox are inside the top-five in all our offensive categories, and Skubal has a very short track record of success. Five of his past six starts have been over 19 DK and we’ve seen a change in the pitch mix does wonders for him. The splitter is gone which is great because it was getting destroyed. When he eliminated that, some velocity came back into the fastball and it has a 25% whiff rate. 

On the season, Skubal has a 28.3% K rate and is proving he can strike out major league hitters. Even dialing back to the start of May, his ERA is just 3.33, the wOBA is .325, and both the FIP and xFIP are under 3.80. That’s coming with a K rate over 34% and everything can start to be traced with his pitch mix change. The salary shouldn’t be this low but be prepared for the floor if picking him tonight. 

Honorable Mention 

Lucas Giolito – On most slates, I would be all over Giolito. He’s rattled off at least 21 DK in four straight starts and gets a Detroit offense that is still whiffing around 25% of the time. I prefer Woodruff for $300 more but I can’t complain if you went here. 

Clayton Kershaw – It speaks to how loaded the elite tier is tonight that Kershaw is only in Honorable Mention. Texas strikes out 23.5% of the time and they will lose their DH on top of that. Kershaw’s recent form has been quite poor and I suspect we could get him at sub-5% tonight. If that happens, he’s worth taking shots with as a pairing with deGrom. 

Starting Rotation 6.11 Stacking Options 

  • Astros against Matt Shoemaker (Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, Michael Brantley, Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa)
  • Angels against Brady Singer (Jared Walsh, Justin Upon, Max Stassi, Anthony Rendon, Taylor Ward)
  • Dodgers against Mike Foltynewicz (Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy, Gavin Lux, cheaper lefties)
  • Reds against Kyle Freeland (Nick Castellanos, Jonathan India, Joey Votto, Jesse Winker, Tyler Stephenson)
  • Nationals against Anthony DeSclafani (Juan Soto, Josh Bell, Kyle Schwarber)
  • Rays against Keegan Akin (Randy Arozarena, Manuel Margot, Mike Zunino, Taylor Walls, Austin Meadows)

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 6.11 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

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MLBPremium

Starting Rotation 6.9

Adam Strangis
written by Adam Strangis

Starting Rotation 6.9

This slate is another massive one but man it is a weird one. Pitching looks pretty poor on the surface but we also could have a couple of glaring values. One of the biggest decisions on the slate lies at the very top so let’s get busy in the Starting Rotation 6.9 to lay the foundation for green screens! 

Starting Rotation 6.9 – Main Targets 

Gerrit Cole 

Twins Ranks vs Pitch Types – FB – 1st SL – 26th CB – 14th CH – 16th

I’m going to say this right off the hop, and perhaps this stand backfires. I will not have any Gerrit Cole outside of cash (if he’s popular). Look, this is far less about anything Cole brings to the mound statistically throughout the season more than what he might not be bringing. Cole is at the epicenter of the “scandal” in MLB right now that sees pitchers using sticky stuff to gain higher spin rates and more movement on their pitches. The last start saw Cole drop his RPM by an awful lot to the lowest rate since 2018. His whiff rate was down on both the four-seam and curveball which isn’t a good sign.
Another very poor sign? Cole’s “answer” to a reporter asking if he’s using Spider Tack.

This is just an absurd answer, or non-answer maybe is the better term. Cole is a very talented pitcher and is fully capable of dominating. If everything was equal, he’d be the clear number one option on the slate. However, the Twins are the best team against the fastball. If that’s an issue in this start, we’d regret paying over $11,000. I fully believe he’ll be popular in cash and we eat chalk in that format, but I’m willing to gamble and have some Twins tonight. 

Taijuan Walker 

Orioles Ranks vs Pitch Types – FB – 15th SL – 13th SF – 24th CB – 21st

Nobody whose name isn’t Brian Tulloch wakes up and says, “YES! I can play Taijuan Walker today!” and even I’m not in love with the play. The xFIP of 4.20 isn’t spectacular in comparison to the 2.17 ERA but Walker does have a 23.7% K rate at least. The WHIP is also just 1.06 despite a 10.7% walk rate and the 9.3% swinging-strike rate is on the high side for him. It’s still frustrating to see him using the sinker as every pitch but that one has a wOBA no higher than .236. The four-seam has 31 of 51 strikeouts so far and Baltimore whiffs over 24% to righty pitching. They are also no higher than 25th in wRC+, wOBA, OPS, or OBP on the season to righty pitching. 

Walker also has strong splits against each side of the plate, as neither is over a .243 wOBA on the season. The lefties are still a bit of a mixed bag because the K rate jumps slightly to 25%, but the xFIP is scary at 4.81. Having said that, the hard-hit rate is still just 28.6% to that side of the plate and Baltimore has not exactly been an offense to take advantage of any weakness against righties. On a weird slate, Walker checks enough boxes to make the cut. 

Casey Mize 

Mariners Ranks vs Pitch Types – FB – 29th SL – 24th SF – 26th CB – 28th

The pitch data looks fantastic for Mize in this start and for the life of me I can’t figure out why the price isn’t coming up. He’s now strung together five straight starts of at least 17 DK points but has yet to exceed $7,000 on any given slate. Mize has struck out a total of 26 hitters over the past four starts and has only given up a total of six earned runs over 26 IP. The K rate of 20.4% is not exactly accurate at this stage and his WHIP is only 1.07. His 50.6% ground ball rate is 11th in the league and he’ll need every bit of it since the Mariners are surprisingly 27th in ground ball rate on the year to righty pitching.

Mize does come with a significant catch – lefty hitters have been an issue, even while he’s been pitching better. The wOBA is .340, the FIP is 6.04, and the xFIP is 4.54. Seattle will have 5-6 lefties and that’s not ideal, as they are 13th in ISO against righty pitching. The four-seam has been the home run pitch with six bombs given up and a .353 wOBA. The good news is it does possess a 27.8% whiff rate and Seattle is almost last against the pitch. Mize is dangerous, but he is also mis-priced. With the Mariners featuring a 25.8% K rate, the reward is worth the risk.

Tucker Davidson

Phillies Ranks vs Pitch Types – FB – 28th SL – 17th CB – 13th

When a slate looks this tough, I’m willing to take some chances and Davidson is exactly that. We’re only talking about a 13.1 inning sample size in the majors to this point and there is a 5.55 FIP and 5.48 xFIP in that sample. The K rate is also only 20.3% but some of that is a bit skewed by a poor 1.2 IP in 2020. What we love to see is the 13.1% swinging-strike rate thus far and a 50% ground ball rate. Through 20 IP in the minors, Davidson has shown strikeout upside with a 32.4% K rate and a ground ball rate of 52.4%. Philly has been an offense to pick on with lefty pitching this season with a 29.3% K rate, which is the third-worst in the league. They are also 13th or worse in wRC+, wOBA, ISO, OPS, and slugging as well. 

Davidson has faced 34 righties and they only have a .256 wOBA and he should see 6-7 righties tonight. The largest fear is the 11.8% K rate and the 5.41 xFIP, so understand exactly what you’re going with if you play him. The Mets and the Nationals were tougher matchups on paper and Davidson has scored at least 13.9 DK in each of those starts. 

Austin Gomber 

Marlins Ranks vs Pitch Types – FB – 25th SL – 18th CB – 22nd CH – 28th

Everyone seems to remember the start where Gomber got absolutely annihilated by the Giants but he’s not getting enough respect for what he’s done outside of that lone start. Gomber has not been below 11.4 DK points past his first start of the year which only went three innings. In the past 10, he has six starts over 17 DK and is only $6,000. To sum it up, he should NOT be this cheap. Gomber has a K rate over 25%, a swinging-strike rate of 11.2%, and a 30.9% CSW on the season. Miami has the sixth-worst K rate to lefty pitching at 28% and even though Starling Marte is back in this offense, they still aren’t scary. They are either 22nd or 23rd in slugging, OPS, OBP, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ this season. 

Some folks might make a big deal about his road ERA being sky-high but that includes his horrific start and a 56.4% strand rate. To righties on the year, his strand rate is under 60% and that’s got to change at some point. His xFIP to that side of the plate is just 3.82 and with a hard-hit rate of just 29.4%, Gomber is a serious value in my eyes tonight. My plan for GPP is to pick two out of Mize, Davidson, and Gomber and play whatever bats I choose. 

Starting Rotation 6.9 Stacking Options

  • Angels against Brad Keller (Shohei Ohtani, Jared Walsh, Justin Upton, Taylor Ward, Anthony Rendon, Max Stassi)
  • Rays against Patrick Corbin (Manuel Margot, Randy Arozarena, Mike Zunino, Mike Brosseau)
  • Dodgers against Tyler Anderson (Chris Taylor, Mookie Betts, Justin Turner, Albert Pujols)
  • Mets against Matt Harvey (Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor – they would rank higher but the pricing for the other hitters is absurd. I may just settle for a mini-stack.)
  • Tigers against Chris Flexen (Robbie Grossman, Eric Haase, Jonathan Schoop, Akil Baddoo)

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 6.9 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

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MLBPremium

Starting Rotation 6.8

Adam Strangis
written by Adam Strangis

Starting Rotation 6.8

After a very oddball Monday with only two games, we’re back with a full slate tonight and plenty of options. It shapes up to be a lot of fun and we have multiple aces to choose from and one of the most on-brand stacks Win Daily has ever seen. I’ll let Brian handle that in Picks and Pivots but let’s get to work in the Starting Rotation 6.8 and talk about our pitchers! 

Starting Rotation 6.8 – Main Targets 

Shane Bieber 

Cardinals Ranks vs Pitch Types – FB – 27th CB – 23rd SL – 7th

This slate is super interesting overall because even with pitchers like Bieber available, I’m not sure any particular player is a MUST play outside of chalk for cash games. WE can’t let Bieber sit on the sidelines though and Bieber has seen some regression from last season but nothing egregious. His FIP and xFIP are 2.88 and 2.67, which are still outstanding. Bieber isn’t striking out the 41.1% of hitters as he did in 2020 but let’s not pretend 35.6% is a poor K rate at all. The BABIP has been well over .300 seemingly all season and some of that might be traced to the 49.8% zone rate. Only 42.6% of his pitches went into the zone last year and is one of the starker differences in his profile this year. 

It’s also easy to draw a line to the whiff rate going down on his curveball especially. Last season it was 51.5% and this year it’s down to 42.9% which is a significant jump. We’ve still seen plenty of ceiling from Bieber this year and the Cards lineup could help him. The wOBA to righty hitting is only .269 and most of St. Louis will be on that side of the plate. Let’s see how the other pitchers stack up before deciding on what to do with Bieber, who is slightly riskier than last year. 

Tyler Glasnow 

Nationals Ranks vs Pitch Types – FB – 14th SL – 12th CB – 17th

Tampa gave Glasnow an extra day off after pitching 100 pitches with a blister in the last start, so that’s not an overwhelming concern for me. Glasnow is still over a 35% K rate and the WHIP is under 0.95 and while Washington doesn’t strike out a whole lot at 22.3%, Glasnow is not the standard pitcher. Glasnow is still fourth in the league in swinging-strike rate at 16.7% and fifth in CSW at 33.4%. He’s an elite pitcher that can make any hitter swing and miss regardless of seasonal data. 

Washington will likely throw out six righties and that can be a small issue for Glasnow. I saw small because righties still only have a .294 wOBA, 11.2% walk rate, and a 1.23 WHIP. However, the xFIP is still only 3.19 and his BABIP to righties is .291. I can’ find much of a reason to not pitch Glasnow with an elite four-seam/curve combo. They have a combined 94 strikeouts and the curve has a 56.8% whiff rate. He only throws it 14.2% of the time but yet it is the 10th ranked curve on FanGraphs and only has a .097 wOBA against it. Both Bieber and Glasnow are cheap enough to go double ace if you wish.

Sonny Gray 

Brewers Ranks vs Pitch Types – CB – 30th FB – 8th SL – 30th

This spot could be a fantastic one for Gray. This season has been a bit of a tough one to get right if you’re playing Gray. He’s had some dynamite starts but he’s gotten smacked a couple of times as well. The K rate is 29.4% and that is already a great match for the 26% K rate the Brewers sport against righty pitching. Gray has been bitten by the home run ball so far at a 1.53 HR/9 but at the same time, the 21.1% HR/FB rate is egregious when compared to his career. Gray has only averaged a 12.6% HR/FB rate through his career and his 11.1% swinging-strike rate and 32% CSW are right in line with the past five seasons. 

Gray should also get a nice boost from Milwaukee’s typical lineup, which features 5-6 lefties. That has been the better side of the plate for Gray at a .276 wOBA, 31.1% K rate, and a 3.08 xFIP. Milwaukee is going to get slightly better on offense if Christian Yelich can stay healthy, but they do rank dead last in wOBA and OPS on the year. Gray uses the curve as nearly a primary pitch to lefties and it has a 36.8% whiff rate and only a .295 wOBA. There are bigger names on the slate but Gray could match their scores with the metrics on paper. 

Alex Wood 

Rangers Ranks vs Pitch Types – FB – 13th SL – 20th CH – 30th

Wood got beat up a little bit in his last start but this sure seems like a bounce-back spot. He still has a 3.32 xFIP and a 24.9% K rate on the season to go with a 6.5% barrel rate. Texas oddly does not strike out as much to lefties with a 23.6% rate. However, they also struggle in general against lefties. They rank 26th in wOBA and wRC+, 27th in ISO, 25th in OPS, and 25th in OPS. We should also pay attention to the fact the Rangers aren’t very good against the slider and that has been the money pitch for Wood. It has allowed the lowest wOBA of his pitches at .203 and the highest whiff rate at 34.5%. 

Wood has faced 165 righty hitters so far and they’ve only compiled a .267 wOBA, .606 OPS, and a 29.1% K rate. The xFIP is down at 3.05 and even though Wood will pitch in an AL park, that’s not a deal-breaker for me. Texas will likely go with six righties and the biggest issue with three lefties is Wood just does not strike that side out at 9.1%. I believe the lineup doesn’t totally kill the appeal for Wood and would still be very interested in a pitcher who has been so good this season and by the way, he scored 27 DK points already against the Rangers this year.

Pablo Lopez 

Rockies Ranks vs Pitch Types – CH – 6th FB – 12th CT – 17th CB – 16th

Lopez got Monday’s scheduled start pushed to tonight and it did all of us (and Lopez) a big favor. Instead of starting in Fenway against the Red Sox, Lopez now draws the Rockies on the road and Lopez is lights out at home. We’ve mentioned before that I’m not a big fan of home/road splits in a particular season but Lopez has logged 168.1 IP at home and 126 IP on the road for his career. ERA is not the best measure of a pitcher, but a home ERA of 2.78 in his career can’t be ignored compared to a 5.86 mark on the road. This year the difference is even larger but it doesn’t account for his road starts coming against really good offenses. Anyway, Lopez is at home and we’re ready to roll with him tonight. 

Colorado is dead last on the road to righty pitching in wOBA, ISO, OPS, slugging, and wRC+. Additionally, they’re 29th in OBP and whiff 26.5% of the time. Lopez has only allowed a .225 wOBA at home to go along with a 26.6% K rate and a 0.87 WHIP. We go after Colorado with almost any pitcher possible when they are away from Coors and Lopez will not be any different. 

Bruce Zimmermann 

Mets Ranks vs Pitch Types – FB – 16th CH – 21st SL – 11th CB – 29th

This is the boldest call of the night but Zimmermann has four starts over 17 DK this season, including two straight against the White Sox and Twins. Those are offenses that are far better against lefty pitches than what the men are playing right now. Since the start of May, New York ranks 25th in wOBA, OPS, 21st in wRC+, ISO, and 27th in OBP. They’re also striking out just about 25% of the time and it’s not a surprise considering how many injuries they’re dealing with. 

Zimmermann only has a 19.7% K rate but he’s also under $6,000 so we’re not looking for a strikeout king at this salary. The xFIP is only 4.31 and he’s also giving up a .333 BABIp, which is high even for him. His swinging-strike rate is 11.6% and the CSW is 28.1%, both of which are more than acceptable for this salary. All of the secondary pitches have a whiff rate over 27% and if he can figure out the four-seam, he could really be in business. The four-seam gets hit for a .547 wOBA which is extreme while no other pitch is over a .316 mark. The Mets are just average against that pitch and we’re only looking for 15-18 DK points. 

Honorable Mention 

Walker Buehler – There’s nothing wrong with playing him but I far prefer the ceiling that Bieber and Glasnow represent. The K rate is around 10% higher for the other two pitchers. 

Chris Bassitt – The theory of a weak start after a complete game played out for Bassitt, but don’t let that mask the fact of how great he has been this season. 

Matt Boyd – He’s been awful the past three starts but the Mariners have a way of curing a lot of ailments. 

Starting Rotation 6.8 Stacking Options

  • Read Picks and Pivots 
  • Giants against Jordan Lyles (Brandon Crawford, Buster Posey, Brandon Belt, LaMonte Wade)
  • A’s against Jon Duplantier (Mark Canha, Matt Olson, Sean Murphy, Mitch Moreland)
  • Padres against Zach Davies (Fernando Tatis Jr., Wil Myers, Eric Hosmer, Jake Cronenworth, Eric Hosmer)
  • White Sox against Robbie Ray (Jose Abreu, Yermin Mercedes, Andrew Vaughn, Tim Anderson, Nick Madrigal)

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 6.8 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

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MLB

MLB DFS Stealing Home: Sunday, June 6th

Josh Barzal
written by Josh Barzal

Welcome to my first edition of MLB DFS Stealing Home: Sunday, June 6th, I will look to give you guys the best plays possible in a brief breakdown to lead you to hit some green on today’s slate. We have a nice ten-game main slate today so let’s get into it.

There are two main aces on our slate today with Corbin Burnes and Trevor Bauer, of the two I heavily lean toward Burnes as he is in a better matchup with the Diamondbacks. Burnes is also an elite K% arm with a 38.7% K rate this year which I expect to continue today. I am pulling out a full fade on Bauer today as I expect he gets hit hard and often against this Braves offense. The next target I am looking at for pitchers is going to have to be Sandy Alcantara who has a matchup with the Pirates. He isn’t a strikeout ace with this 23.7% rate but I expect him to be the safest option on this slate as I believe I can make a case for almost every offense here. Plug Burnes and Alcantara and look for bats with our $3,687 remaining salary per player.

I hate to sound like our very own 2LockSports but my favorite overall stack on the day is going to be the Tampa lefties against Dane Dunning. Dunning is a respectable pitcher to righties but it all falls apart when he is trying to throw against lefties where his GB% sinks to 41.9% and his hard-hit rate climbs to 45.2%. I am looking to target Kevin Kiermaier, Austin Meadows, and Joey Wendle against Dunning today.

Picking through for value today I am looking at Sandy Leon (2,400), Hunter Dozier (3,300), Albert Pujols (2,500). Those are my main targets today for value as I like all three in their matchups, Pujols is mainly power hunting for cheap against Fried.

A bonus stack that I like today if you’re into following theories is to fully send the braves against Bauer. This has minimal numbers that support it but we saw the same thing happen to Gerrit Cole. The MLB is cracking down on the use of foreign substances and I believe Bauer is next on the list for their main targets. I expect spin rates will be down today and the Braves to mash on Bauer. I would target them as a low-owned full stack on today’s slate.

Stealing Home: Summary

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS Stealing Home: Sunday, June 6th. I believe our pitching strategy is doable with the value bats we have on this slate with the Rays being my favorite main stack against Dunning, as well as the full Braves stack if your feeling risky. For our other articles here at WinDaily click here, and to join our discord click here. Good luck today everyone!!! I will be in discord to answer questions!!!

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MLBPremium

Starting Rotation 6.6

Adam Strangis
written by Adam Strangis

Starting Rotation 6.6

It’s Sunday and we have a 10-game slate today and it falls under the category of a challenging/easy slate. I say that because the challenge comes from not having a ton of options at the first look. The easy part comes from when we don’t have a lot of options, it makes picking pitchers a whole lot easier. Let’s go through the normal process and see if we can identify some gems or if we’ll just play it straight in the Starting Rotation 6.6! 

Starting Rotation 6.6 – Main Targets 

Corbin Burnes 

D-Backs Ranks vs Pitch Types – CT – 19th CB – 7th SL – 25th FB – 15th CH – 4th

Burnes hasn’t exactly hit the ceiling we saw earlier in the year in the past couple of starts but I very much doubt that will deter the field. Burnes is still sporting a 40.9% K rate to go along with the 51.9% ground ball rate. His 2.24 ERA looks fantastic and it looks even better next to a 1.17 FIP and 1.83 xFIP. Burnes has been nearly unhittable with a 4.7% barrel rate and a 21.7% hard-hit rate while he rocks an 18.3% swinging-strike rate and a 35% CSW. The K rate, swinging-strike rate, and the CSW would all be second behind only Jacob deGrom if Burnes qualified. 

There will only be two small issues I’d put out there. The first is Burnes “only” has a 34% K rate to lefties. I say only because righties whiff at a 47.5% rate, and you need a ceiling at the price tag. It also has to be noted that Burnes hasn’t hit the ceiling since he came back from Covid. Trying to measure any effects he’s going through is useless as I’m not a doctor, but I’ll simply state that the time after the virus treats everyone differently. Hopefully, he rolls out there and totally smashes the Arizona lineup but we always try and discuss anything relevant to the start at hand. The issue with the fade is where else do we go if we pass on Burnes? 

Sandy Alcantara 

Pirates Ranks vs Pitch Types – CH – 5th FB – 30th SL – 14th

I wonder if the field turns to Trevor Bauer, but I have some fears there. For those who may have missed it, MLB is supposed to be cracking down on illegal substances on the baseball. These substances can help improve RPM (revolutions per minute) and we saw during Gerrit Cole’s last start he saw a dramatic drop in RPM and got hit hard. Bauer is one of the poster children for seeing a sharp increase in RPM and I worry if MLB starts looking, he abandons whatever he’s been using. Facing Atlanta isn’t where we want to play a pitcher that is suddenly not using what he normally uses. Now, this is all theoretical. MLB isn’t supposed to enforce it for a couple of weeks but everyone in the league knows they’re watching right now. It’s enough for me to not really look at Bauer today. 

Instead, let’s take a look at Alcantara. The Pirates have been a little bit feisty in this series but I’m not super concerned about that. This is still generally a poor offense (albeit with a 23% K rate) and rank 24th or worse in wRC+, wOBA, ISO, OPS, and slugging. The K rate for Alcantara isn’t the best we’re going to see in this price range at 23.8% but this is more of a slate context play than anything else. He generates a 52.3% ground ball rate and that ranks eighth in the league, which does help as does the 43.6% ground ball rate for the Pirates offense. That’s the 12th highest rate against righty pitching. 

The Bucs are good against the changeup but Alcantara’s is excellent and is ranked as the best changeup in baseball on FanGraphs. He’s earned a 35.9% whiff rate, .153 wOBA, and a .167 average. Both sides of the plate are under a .300 wOBA and lefties are the worse side. Alcantara has surrendered a road ERA of 5.40, but he’s made starts against the Dodgers, Blue Jays, Giants, and Braves on the road. I’m not here to put much stock into the ERA. I wish he was slightly cheaper but if you’re not interested in Bauer, Alcantara makes a lot of sense. 

Jorge Lopez 

Cleveland Ranks vs Pitch Types – FB – 22nd CB – 20th CH – 26th

I feel pretty strongly that the best way to attack this slate is to live up top in the Burnes, Alcantara, and possibly Bauer range. I said pitching was bad and I meant it. This pick is wildly dangerous but there is a (narrow) path to success for Lopez. His 4.02 xFIP points us to the 5.29 ERA being fairly unlucky and that’s come with a 22% HR/FB rate. What is truly bizarre is the flyball rate for Lopez is only 28.1%. This isn’t a massive flyball pitcher. Lopez is displaying a career-best 10.1% swinging-strike rate and a 23.1% K rate. He’s never been above a 19.9% rate in any season he pitched more than 35 innings.

Lopez has also added velocity to the sinker and fastball and is sitting around 95 MPH. The four-seam especially has seen a sharp increase in whiff rate from 18% last year to 27.8% this season. He’ll also face 6-7 lefties and that is the better side of the plate with Lopez at a .300 wOBA, 23.8% K rate, and a 1.17 WHIP. Is anything about that spectacular? Nope. He’s $5,200 and if he can grind out 15 DK, we’d be super happy here. 

Honorable Mention 

Austin Voth – Plenty risky, but Voth has displayed a .169 wOBA and a 38.9% K rate to righties. He’s also gotten crushed by lefties for a .451 wOBA and a K rate of just 10%, so the lineup for Philly is incredibly important. They are only projected for two, which would leave me willing to take a chance here. 

Bailey Ober – He’s only pitched four innings in the majors that did not go well, but his past 40 IP in the minors have produced a K rate over 32%. He’s also never had issues with home runs so at $4,000 he can be worth a look in MME formats. 

Starting Rotation 6.6 Stacking Options 

  • Astros against Steven Matz (Yuli Gurriel, Carlos Correa, Martin Maldonado)
  • Cardinals against Wade Miley (Nolan Arenado, Tyler O’Neil, Tommy Edman, Yadier Molina)
  • Marlins against Chad Kuhl (Jazz Chisholm, Corey Dickerson, Jesus Aguilar, Starling Marte)
  • Dodgers against Max Fried (Chris Taylor, Justin Turner, Mookie Betts, Albert Pujols)

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 6.6 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

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Starting Rotation 6.5

Adam Strangis
written by Adam Strangis

Starting Rotation 6.5

We have all 30 teams in action again today but DK has split them into nine and six-game slates. The larger slate is in the afternoon so we’ll be doing the full breakdown there (and we have options, score!), and then the six-game slate will be notes-based. There is a ton of ground to cover so let’s get rolling and dig into the Starting Rotation 6.5 to lay our framework for green screens! 

Starting Rotation 6.5 – Early Slate 

Brandon Woodruff

D-Backs Ranks vs Pitch Types – FB -12th SL – 26th CB – 7th CH – 3rd

I worried about the ceiling potential for Freddy Peralta last night and all he did was take a no-hitter into the seventh. Milwaukee is a favorite of Starting Rotation because 60% of their rotation is in play every day, and Woodruff is one of those three. He has been lights out so far this season with a 1.27 ERA and only a 2.15 FIP and a 2.77 xFIP, so those are not concerns. The WHIP is under 0.70 and the K rate is just under 32% with a 31.4% CSW and 12.7% swinging-strike rate. 

His four-seam has been electric this season and is currently rated as the best fastball on FanGraphs. Of the 83 strikeouts recorded by Woodruff, 52 have come from the four-seam. It’s yielded a .088 average, .162 wOBA, and boasts a 30.5% whiff rate. The splits aren’t a big deal here either as both sides are under a .195 wOBA (lefties are at a .170 mark) and lefties also strike out a bit more at 33.6%. Woodruff has scored at least 32 DK in four of his last five starts and is honestly not priced accurately at $10,300. 

Lucas Giolito 

Tigers Ranks vs Pitch Types – FB – 27th CH – 11th SL – 14th

Giolito is on a roll in his last three starts with 21 IP, three ER, and 28 strikeouts. his is pretty much what we excepted from him at the start of the year and it’s been a bumpy road but we should all feel comfortable playing him. The last time he saw Detroit he only scored 16.2 DK points but manager Tony LaRussa (surprise to absolutely no one) made a bad call and left him in about 20 pitches too long. Giolito is back over a 30% K rate and he’s only getting hit hard 29.5% while sporting a 15.8% swinging-strike rate, which is seventh in baseball. 

Giolito’s changeup is the money pitch, ranked fifth in FanGraphs rating and it has racked up 48 of 78 strikeouts so far. It also sports the lowest average at .171 and the lowest wOBA at .229 with a 40.5% whiff rate. It also helps that Giolito is better to the left side of the plate with a .259 wOBA and the K rate is approaching 32%. With Detroit being mostly lefties, Giolito is in a great spot against an offense that has improved but still whiffs well over 25% of the time. 

Trevor Rogers 

Pirates Ranks vs Pitch Types – FB – 30th CH – 5th SL – 19th

This little tier is loaded and it’s honestly hard to pick just one. If you decided to go with John Means (love, love the spot for him) or Rich Hill (who offers very interesting salary savings over Means or Rogers), I’m not going to argue in the least. I’m siding with Rogers here because he gets the weakest offense to pick on, even with Ke’Bryan Hayes back for Pittsburgh. The Buccos rank 28th in wRC+, wOBA, ISO, OPS, and 23rd in OBP with a 23.7% K rate. Rogers comes into this game with a 1.87 ERA and a 3.26 xFIP but it doesn’t appear the Pirates can make that hurt.

He also sports a 30.5% K rate and his four-seam has 49 of 75 strikeouts to this point. With the Bucs ranking dead last against that pitch, we should be licking our chops for the upside here. The splits are very similar here with the K rate being almost dead equal and neither side of the plate hitting for over a .298 wOBA, and that’s the lefties. Pittsburgh typically has six righties plus the pitching spot in their lineup, perfect for Rogers. 

Chase De Jong 

Marlins Ranks vs Pitch Types – FB – 26th CB – 22nd SL – 16th

If we just look at the career numbers, De Jong would be totally uninteresting. However, he’s followed the route of most pitchers and seen an increase in spin rate and velocity, and the strikeouts have followed. In the 20 IP this season in AAA, his K rate is 33.7% and it was 25% in his first start. Miami is a top-five K-rate team to righty pitching at 26.1% and is typically not anything to worry about offensively. Let’s check in with what Brian said before the last start –

https://twitter.com/2lockSports/status/1399010065961697286?s=20

De Jong touched 95 MPH in his previous start and the wOBA against the four-seam is only .189 in nine BBE. There’s plenty of risks here and maybe you don’t need to go this low, but De Jong has shown improvement on his pitches and we don’t need much at this salary from an SP2. 

Honorable Mention 

Aaron Civale – It’s hard to look past the Means, Rogers, and Hill trio but Civale could go totally overlooked with a very good shot at scoring 20 DK points. 

Jose Berrios – He’s put together three very strong starts in a row, which means Berrios is about due to have an average or sub-par start. 

Starting Rotation 6.5 – Early Slate Stacking Options 

  • Rays against Kolby Allard (Randy Arozarena, Mike Zunino, Manuel Margot, Mike Brosseau, Austin Meadows)
  • Astros against Ross Stripling (Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve)
  • This strikes me as a slate to take 2-3 hitters in a lineup instead of a full-on 4-5 man stack past the two big lineups. It’s a fairly stout pitching slate on paper. 

Starting Rotation 6.5 – Evening Slate

Jacob deGrom – I’m not going to talk here, everyone knows to play deGOAT especially on just a six-game slate. The only thing I can add to deGrom is Starting Rotation has a new rule – two deGrom GIF’s to celebrate his starts.

This one is just absurd –

Joe Musgrove – It’s funny because the Mets are notorious for not scoring enough runs for deGrom and it may well continue tonight.

I grant you that is from April but the point stands. The Mets lineup continues to just be hurt all over the board and I’m not sure the current iteration is AAA-worthy. Musgrove is coming off a weird bullpen appearance but has full rest and still sports a 33.5% K rate, 2.08 ERA with a 2.64 xFIP, and a 14.1% swinging-strike rate. Both sides of the plate have a .260 wOBA or lower, and I’m not sure Musgrove should be priced under $9,000. 

Kevin Gausman – He has the tougher spot than Musgrove but Gausman he’s legitimately performed like an ace all season and nobody seems to talk about it ever. The Giants righty is eighth in swinging-strike rate and seventh in CSW both going with a 30.9% K rate. I do slightly worry that the 1.40 ERA doesn’t totally match the 3.05 xFIP but not enough to totally pass on him. The Cubs whiff 25.1% of the time to righty hitting and Gausman has the third-ranked fastball and first-ranked splitter in the league. That is a nasty combo and they have all 83 of his strikeouts. 

Alex Cobb – He has two starts since returning to the lineup and they’ve been quite good. Not only does Cobb control the left side of the plate with a .252 wOBA, a 2.84 xFIP, and a 27% K rate but Seattle is a top-eight K rate team to righty pitching. The Mariners normally have six lefties in their lineup and his splitter has a 36.3% whiff rate. Overall, the 3.78 ERA doesn’t make much sense with a 2.44 xFIP and he generates a 56.5% ground ball rate. Cobb has suffered through a .376 BABIP in his 33.1 IP so far, which is ridiculous. With a 12.9% swinging-strike rate in tow, Cobb is much better than some of the surface metrics would appear. This is from earlier in the season but you get the idea –

Starting Rotation 6.5 – Evening Slate Stacking Options 

  • Coors Field – All of it. The Rockies get a questionable lefty and the A’s get Kyle Freeland. So a team in the A’s offense that sits seventh in ISO against lefties in Coors and the most expensive righty is Matt Chapman at $4,700. Oakland was chalky last night and that will continue again. You can fit deGrom, Musgrove, and four Oakland hitters with over $3,300 left to build. I would expect that to be the bones of cash games. In honesty, you can build with deGrom and Musgrove, have a Coors stack, and even kick in a mini stack of the other team listed. It seems silly to deviate on a six-game slate. 
  • For Oakland, I’m looking at Mark Canha (with an underscore), Stephen Piscotty, Chad Pinder, Jed Lowrie, and Chapman. 
  • For Colorado, I have a strong interest in C.J. Cron, Yonathan Daza, Garrett Hampson, and Ryan McMahon. 
  • Red Sox Lefties against Jameson Taillon (Rafael Devers, Alex Verdugo especially)

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 6.5 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

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Starting Rotation 6.3

Brian Tulloch
written by Brian Tulloch

Starting Rotation 6.3

We have another eight-game slate tonight and once again the pricing is making life difficult. It seems to be a recurring theme lately that we have one nailed on ace at the top of the salary ladder that will attract major attention. Past that, things get a little dicey with salaries involved so let’s get to work in the Starting Rotation 6.3 and find the green screens!

Starting Rotation 6.3 – Main Targets 

Yu Darvish 

Mets Ranks vs Pitch Types – CT – 29th SL – 12th FB – 17th

With the Mets still hampered in their lineup and missing four starters, it’s hard not to slot in Darvish and just get different elsewhere. Over the past two weeks, New York has been striking out over 25% of the time and is below average in wOBA, wRC+, OPS, and OBP. On the Darvish side, there is room for some small regression since the ERA is 2.16 and the xFIP is 3.82. Against a better offense, I may be slightly more concerned but Darvish is also sporting a 30% K rate, 12% swinging-strike rate, and a 31.5%. Darvish throws all sorts of pitches but seeing New York rank next-to-last against the cutter brings us some comfort as well. 

It’s also easy to like Darvish because there isn’t really a sharp difference in his splits. Both sides of the plate are under a .275 wOBA, neither side hits over .210, and the WHIP doesn’t get higher than 1.01. Now, the K rate is different as righties whiff 33.6% of the time compared to 26.5% for lefties, but that’s nothing to get hung up on here. The Mets are still rolling out a questionable lineup and that’s if Jonathan Villar plays, as he is day to day on Wednesday night. 

Lance Lynn 

Tigers Ranks vs Pitch Types – FB – 26th CT – 30th CH – 10th

We’ve been talking about this a good deal lately, but Detroit has not been hitting like the pushover they have been most of the season lately. They are 13th in wOBA and 14th in OPS over the past two weeks with a K rate under 25%. That’s something we use when it’s a shaky pitcher on the mound but Lance Lynn is not in the category that I worry about. Lynn is such an aberration with his fastball approach with almost nothing off-speed. Then again, when the pitches can do this perhaps off-speed is overrated –

The four-seam has a 35.7% whiff rate while the cutter is at 23.8%. Neither pitch has given up a wOBA over .221 and Lynn has only yielded four home runs total. 

The K rate of 26.9% overall is very strong and the 12.5% swinging-strike rate matches his career-high at this point. With Detroit being a predominantly lefty lineup, it is super encouraging to see Lynn have a .217 wOBA and 0.92 WHIP to the left side of the plate. We do have to say that the K rate comes down to 21.9% but make no mistake, Detroit is still a heavy strikeout lineup. You can feel great about Lynn throwing at least 95+ pitches almost every single time out and he’s worth the salary tonight. 

Tyler Anderson 

Marlins Ranks vs Pitch Types – FB – 25th CT – 8th CH – 29th

If we’re just looking at game logs, we would think the bloom was coming off the rose for Anderson the past three starts. Perhaps that’s true but those matchups were quite difficult. This stands out as a bounce-back spot and he’s shown upside in spots with scores of 27 and 22.3 on the season. We just saw Robbie Ray carve up this Marlins lineup and while they’re not the same pitcher, Miami has a weakness to lefties. They are 22nd in wRC+, 21st in wOBA, 20th in OPS, and strike out 28.2% of the time. Anderson features a 23.3% K rate and his 4.63 ERA is a bit higher than the 4.14 xFIP. It will be strength against strength because the Marlins hit the cutter well while Anderson allows the lowest average and wOBA against it of his main pitches. The four-seam has 27 of 55 strikeouts so far. 

It would appear that Anderson has a weakness to righties with a 1.90 HR/9 but the xFIP is under 4.00 and the strand rate is 65.2%. Those rates tell us there’s been a little bit of bad luck and it’s also a good time to note that seven of the 10 home runs he’s given up have come in the past three starts. The K rate pops up just a little bit to righties at 25.4% and Miami is projected for five and the pitcher spot. 

Casey Mize 

White Sox Ranks vs Pitch Types – FB – 4th SL – 3rd SF – 8th CB – 4th

The pitch data is brutal on paper and it’s not like we set out with the idea to target the White Sox, but DK will simply not move Mize’s price even after three straight 20+ DK point games. The strikeouts have started to flow with 20 over the last three starts and that’s very notable when Mize only has 47 on the season. The slider was a key the last time out and it has been arguably the best pitch he throws. It has the best wOBA at .236 and a 29.9% whiff rate while only giving up one home run.

To Mize’s credit, he generates ground balls at a 51.2% rate which would rank inside the top 10 if he qualified. Chicago still leads the way in ground ball rate to righty pitching at over 50%. 

Now, you can argue that ground balls aren’t what we want in DFS and generally, you’d be correct. The strikeout is king but Mize is still under $7,000! If he only whiffs four or five but goes five, maybe six innings with one or two runs given up he’ll be totally fine at this salary. Mize should face five righties and he’s held them to a .268 wOBA and a 21.5% K rate. The lefties are a small concern with a .328 wOBA but only Yan Moncada has a wOBA over .335 against righty pitching this season. I wouldn’t touch him in cash but Mize checks the boxes for a GPP play. 

Honorable Mention 

Adam Wainwright – I personally can’t stomach Waino at this salary but he is at home at least and not in Cincinnati. 

Griffin Canning – Another pitcher whose price is sky high but he gets the Mariners and has a 25.8% K rate and the 5.40 ERA doesn’t match the 4.17 xFIP. 

Starting Rotation 6.3 Stacking Options 

  • Royals against J.A. Happ (Whit Merrifield, Carlos Santana, Salvador Perez, Michael A. Taylor)
  • Brewers against Seth Frankoff (Willy Adames, Omar Narvaez, Kolten Wong, Avisail Garcia, Christian Yelich)
  • Giants against Zach Davies (Brandon Crawford, Mike Yastrzemski, Buster Posey, Steven Duggar – Keep an eye on the lineup, they are banged up)
  • D-Backs against Brett Anderson (Ketel Marte, Eduardo Escobar, Carson Kelly, Nick Ahmed, Josh Rojas)
  • Angels against Justus Sheffield (Shohei Ohtani, Justin Upton, Jose Rojas, Phil Gosselin)

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 6.3 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

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Starting Rotation 6.2

Adam Strangis
written by Adam Strangis

Starting Rotation 6.2

We have an eight-game main slate tonight and there are some strong pitching options again. Much like the past couple of days, I will be very focused on a core group of 4-5 pitchers. There is one clear ace but we have some chances to get ace-level production at some different salaries so let’s get to work in the Starting Rotation 6.2!

Starting Rotation 6.2 – Main Targets 

Walker Buehler 

Cardinals Ranks vs Pitch Types – FB – 23rd CB – 26th CT – 14th SL – 5th

This slate is pretty interesting because Buehler is the lone “ace” that we typically trust and will flock towards playing. It’s easy to see what even though he only had three strikeouts in the last game. If there is something to pick at, the K rate is it. Typically at this salary range, we need a large K rate and Buehler is only sitting at 25.3% which would be the lowest rate of his career thus far. The WHIP is only 0.90 which would be the best mark for him but he does tend to get hit harder than we like at 36.8%. The good news for Buehler is the Cards are very poor against his two main pitches and that could make or break this matchup. 

St. Louis has come down in K rate to righties to 22.8% which is not a big number at all. However, the four-seam has been great with 35 of 62 strikeouts. It has also yielded only a .251 wOBA and has a 24.5% whiff rate. The other great news for Buehler is the normal Cardinal lineups have six righty hitters and the pitcher spot. To that side of the plate, Buehler has held them to a .217 wOBA, 28% K rate, and just a 3.04 xFIP. Now, I’m not telling you to not play Buehler tonight but I feel strongly that we have other paths and we don’t have to pay up here. 

Sean Manaea 

Mariners Ranks vs Pitch Types – FB – 28th CH – 23rd CB – 29th

The price is high but the spot is truly excellent for Manaea. Seattle is sixth in K rate at 27.4% and that means Manaea can take advantage of his 24.2% rate. The barrel rate is barely over 6% and the fly ball rate is right at 36% while the Mariners are 28th in hard-hit rate against lefty pitching. It makes sense why Seattle is 25th or worse in OBP, slugging, OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ on the season. It’s really nice to see Manaea getting a 12.1% swinging-strike rate since that’s the highest of his career and he’s seen a 4% drop in his contact rate on all pitches. The change and the curve have both see spikes of 10% in whiff rate from 2020, so it’s not hard to see why the K rate and swinging-strike rate have improved so much. 

What is fascinating is the Mariner lineup is still projected for five lefties in this game and if that happens, it’s a huge advantage for Manaea. He’s faced 62 this year and held them to a .214 wOBA, a .499 OPS, a 2.10 xFIP, and has struck them out at a 38.7% rate. The Mariners lineup is important for him because it can make a difference in his upside. It’s not that he’s been terrible to righties but they do have just a 19.6% K rate, a .354 wOBA, and a 4.22 xFIP. I’ll be deciding on Manaea after that lineup comes out. 

Jordan Montgomery 

Rays Ranks vs Pitch Types – CB – 6th CH – 21st FB – 4th CT – 5th

Perhaps the biggest boom or bust spot on the slate is the Rays offense against Jordan Montgomery. Let’s start with the Rays side of the equation. Brian has been the Rays whisperer, but he has been consistent in saying boom or bust because that’s what the Tampa offense is for sure. Against lefty pitching, it becomes even more apparent. They have hitters that have track records of hitting lefties well but it has not happened much this season. They rank 25th in OBP, 23rd in slugging, 24th in OPS, and 18th in ISO. The surprising part is they’re also eighth in wOBA but 20th in wRC+ and strikeout 30.8%, just 0.2% away from leading the league. They are a mixed bag, to say the least. 

For Montgomery, he’s also a roller coaster ride. The last four starts have resulted in scores of 2.3, 34.8, -0.1, and 31.7. He has a good enough K rate at 24.7% and a solid enough ground ball rate at 40%, but the risk is certainly there. The Rays will typically roll out six righties and that would lead us to think there is a danger for Montgomery. He’s only generated a 21.8% K rate and a 4.24 xFIP to go with the wOBA of .332. Only one batter in the projected lineup is below a 25% K rate to combo Montgomery, so the odds are this battle tilts to one side significantly. With the upside Montgomery has shown, he is well worth a look in GPP ONLY. 

Alek Manoah 

Marlins Ranks vs Pitch Types – FB – 24th SL – 13th CH – 29th

I’m not sure Manoah could have been more impressive in his first start in Yankee Stadium. If you have a few minutes, check out this article from the awesome Nick Pollack that digs into every pitch –

He went six strong innings with seven strikeouts and only two hits allowed. Perhaps the most important facets were the Jays letting him throw 88 pitches and he threw his entire arsenal. We see during debut games that pitchers don’t always throw everything they have and go very fastball-heavy. That was not an issue at all with Manoah with everything on display. He generated an 11.4% swinging-strike rate and had a 31.8% K rate overall. The four-seam averaged right around 95 MPH and featured a 42.9% whiff rate. His off-speed stuff is also capable of this – 

Miami is striking out over 26% of the time and sits 29th in ISO, 25th in wOBA, and 23rd in wRC+. While there is still always risk associated with young pitchers like Manoah, he’s walking into a much better spot than the previous game and I believe the price is more than fair for his potential here. Playing him at a $2,000 savings over Buehler could unlock quite a bit. 

Shane McClanahan 

Yankees Ranks vs Pitch Types – SL – 24th FB – 19th CB – 19th CH – 26th

It would be really nice if the Rays would let him throw more than 80 pitches, and that has to be noted with McClanahan. Regardless of how good he is going, the clock is ticking on him in a big way as far as staying in the game. At the same time, he still can pay off this price on limited pitches as he just demonstrated against the Royals, racking up six strikeouts in five innings and 63 pitches. The 29.6% K rate is well worth playing since the walk rate is only 6.5% and the swinging-strike rate is an absurd 17.7% to go with a 34.4% CSW. For context on those last two metrics, McClanahan would rank second and third if he qualified. It’s not remotely a surprise when you see him throw pitches like this – 

New York isn’t a massive strikeout team at 23.7% to lefties but the youngster has been better to righty hitters so far. They only have a .264 wOBA, .198 average, 2.75 xFIP, and a 31% K rate. We’ve continued to see the Yankees struggle and the Manoah/McClanahan combo could combine for 12-15 strikeouts and gives us a path to be different. 

Starting Rotation 6.2 Stacking Options 

  1. Coors Field – Both teams will be more popular than yesterday as the pitching is far worse on paper. For the Rockies, we’re looking at CJ Cron, Ryan McMahon, Charlie Blackmon, and the bottom of the lineup for salary savings (Brendan Rodgers, etc…). On the other side, Texas hitters are Willie Calhoun, Joey Gallo, Adolis Garcia, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, and Nate Lowe. 
  2. Braves against Jon Lester (Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, Dansby Swanson, William Contreras)
  3. Nationals against Drew Smyly (Trea Turner, Ryan Zimmerman, Josh Harrison, Juan Soto, Yan Gomes)
  4. Orioles against Randy Dobnak (Cedric Mullins, Trey Mancini, Anthony Santander, D.J. Stewart, Freddy Galvis)

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 6.2 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

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Starting Rotation 6.1

Adam Strangis
written by Adam Strangis

Starting Rotation 6.1

The calendar has flipped to June and we have a nice-sized slate for Tuesday night. There are some very strong options on this slate but they are highly concentrated in the higher tier of salary, with one player likely to carry most of the attention. Let’s not waste much more time and jump into the Starting Rotation 6.1 to lay the foundation for green screens once again! 

Starting Rotation 6.1 – Main Targets 

Tyler Glasnow 

Yankees Ranks vs Pitch Types – FB – 19th SL – 23rd CB – 19th

I don’t believe that the Yankees lineup is going to scare anyone here, as they’ve been shut down by Tarik Skubal and Rich Hill on consecutive days. Maybe the DK pricing algorithm hasn’t received that memo. Glasnow scored 37 DK points at $10,500 and his salary CAME DOWN $700.

If they still worry anyone, that’s going to be their issue because Glasnow is a fantastic play and should still be chalky. He continues to be top-five in K rate overall (36.2%), swinging-strike rate (16.9%), and CSW (33.7%) among qualified starters. The Yanks are hovering between eighth and 12th in K rate to righty pitching and are also no higher than 14th in wOBA, wRC+, ISO, OPS, or average. 

Glasnow is slightly worse to righty hitters and we talked about this in the last start. The “worse” side is a 1.24 HR/9, 3.01 xFIP, a .293 wOBA, and a 35.1% K rate. That’s not nearly enough to take me away from Glasnow in this spot and the Yankees offense just hasn’t given us a ton of reason to worry. I fully expect Glasnow to give up some production, but not enough to not end up between 22-26 DK points with a much higher ceiling. 

Note – I had planned on giving Aaron Nola a very strong look and full write-up, but the pricing on DK leaves me mostly off him. Perhaps he can be worth it in GPP but the salary for Glasnow combined with his ceiling is too hard to pass on. I’m not likely to stray from the upper end in salary tonight with Glasnow SO underpriced and he makes an easy combo with the next pitcher. 

Chris Bassitt 

Mariners Ranks vs Pitch Types – FB – 29th CT – 7th SL – 25th CH – 22nd CB – 29th

I’m not sure there’s much of a better spot for Bassitt to ask for coming off a complete-game shutout of the Angels last time out. The 114 pitches aren’t a giant red flag, but it is noteworthy Bassitt normally sits around 95 or so. Still, he’s been so good this season and the Seattle offense has been a target all year long. They rank 24th in wRC+, 27th in wOBA, 28th in OPS, and they whiff at a 25.6% rate which is the eighth-highest. That’s going to fit like a glove with the 26.1% K rate and a 25.3% hard-hit rate.

We can talk about the Mariners rolling out five lefties, which is technically the worse side of the plate for Bassitt. Just like Glasnow, “worse” is a relative term since lefties only have a .285 wOBA, .206 average, and a K rate over 26%. The four-seam and slider do the damage as far as the strikeouts go and those pitches have 49 of 74 strikeouts on the season. The slider in particular has been excellent with a .118 wOBA and a 64.1% whiff rate. It seems a little odd that Bassitt doesn’t throw it more, but you can’t argue with the success this year.

Robbie Ray

Marlins Ranks vs Pitch Types – FB – 25th SL – 13th CB – 22nd

It was a rare poor start from Ray last game out but that’s not going to deter me here. Miami does have some pop against lefty pitching as they are 15th in ISO and slugging, but they also whiff the fourth-most at 27.8% and are bottom-five against the main pitch for Ray. Not only are they bottom-five, but the two best fastball hitters in Miguel Rojas and Brian Anderson also are on the IL. Without those two, Miami ranks 29th. The four-seam has the most strikeouts of any pitch for Ray at 31 of 60 and has a 22.7% whiff rate.

That pitch has also given up eight home runs so there is always going to be a danger with Ray, but the Miami K rate is too high to not chase. Ray himself sits at 28% and he’s still not walking almost anyone with a 6.1% walk rate. The 1.13 WHIP would be the best he’s ever posted so home runs tend to hurt a little less if they’re solo shots. His HR/FB rate is awfully high at 25.9% and the xFIP is only 3.39. Only Adam Duvall and Jesus Aguilar have ISO’s over .200 from the right side of the plate (and I do like them as a mini-stack) but Ray has a clear path to 20+ DK points tonight. 

Alex Wood 

Angels Ranks vs Pitch Types – FB – 20th SL – 10th CH – 15th

The Angels aren’t exactly a world-beater on offense against lefty pitching and Wood has been excellent this season. His 2.94 ERA is in line with a 2.91 xFIP and you have to love the 56.8% ground ball rate. That would be second if he qualified at this juncture and guess who leads the league in ground ball rate to lefty pitching? That would indeed be the Angels are only around league average in the rest of our offensive categories.

LA might look solid against the slider at 10th but they are overall in the negative numbers and Wood’s slider is doing some work. Of the 50 strikeouts Wood has recorded, 39 have come from the slider and it’s sporting a .198 wOBA. Righty hitters have had a very difficult time with Wood this year, generating just a .256 wOBA, .584 OPS, and a whopping 30.7% K rate. LA loses the DH in this park on top of everything else and Wood checks all the boxes. 

Honorable Mention 

Michael Pineda – The matchup is very nice for him but I’m not crazy about the price tag in the least. 

Sonny Gray – He seems capped around 85-90 pitches which isn’t terrible, but the extra $200 for Bassitt seems well-spent. 

Starting Rotation 6.1 Stacking Options 

  1. Coors Field – Both the Colorado and Texas offenses will be wildly popular. 
  2. Twins against Bruce Zimmermann (Nelson Cruz, Mitch Garver, Josh Donaldson, Kyle Garlick, Jorge Polanco) – this stack is very underpriced. 
  3. Giants against Andrew Heaney (Evan Longoria, Buster Posey, Austin Slater, Donovan Solano)
  4. Dodgers against John Gant (Max Muncy, Gavin Lux, Mookie Betts, Justin Turner)
  5. A’s against Marco Gonzales (Mark Canha, Jed Lowrie, Stephen Piscotty, Chad Pinder)
  6. Royals against Will Crowe (Adalberto Mondesi, Whit Merrifield, Salvador Perez, Carlos Santana, Andrew Benintendi)

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 6.1 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

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MLBPremium

Starting Rotation 5.31

Adam Strangis
written by Adam Strangis

Starting Rotation 5.31

We have a nine-game slate this afternoon and it looks like a slate that we’re going to need to spend up on pitching. There is one player that I believe we can take chances with but overall, the bottom rung in salary doesn’t offer much. It certainly doesn’t offer a Tarik Skubal today so this could be a challenge to fit in bigger name bats. We’ll discuss some stacks as always in the Starting Rotation 5.31 but before that, let’s talk about who we need to target on the mound! 

Starting Rotation 5.31 – Main Targets 

Carlos Rodon 

Cleveland Ranks vs Pitch Types – FB – 21st SL – 21st CH – 27th

Rodon has taken on Cleveland twice before and has racked up a total of 72.2 DK points and has a no-hitter, so things have gone well for him. Overall, Rodon has turned in 48.2 innings this season that has been nothing short of dominant. The 1.29 ERA isn’t here to stay but the FIP/xFIP is 2.01 and 2.66 so there’s not massive regression waiting for him. Among pitchers who have at least 40 innings pitched, Rodon is third in K rate at 38.5% and fifth in the swinging-strike rate at 16.9%. Opposing hitters are not getting good swings with a 24.7% hard-hit rate and a 5.1% barrel rate. 

Both sides of the plate are under a .230 wOBA and if Cleveland decides to play any lefties, they could be in some trouble. Lefties have a 42.9% K rate and a 0.42 FIP. The four-seam/slider combo has been electric with additional velocity from last season and has 70 strikeouts on the season. The slider is only sixth in FanGraphs ratings but has a .109 wOBA, 48.3% whiff rate, and has given up one (1) single in 52 at-bats. With Cleveland ranking 25th in wOBA, wRC+, and OPS, Rodon has one of the easiest paths to success today. 

Corbin Burnes 

Tigers Ranks vs Pitch Types – CT – 30th CB – 24th FB – 26th CH – 10th

When your offense is the lowest-ranked team against the cutter, Corbin Burnes is about the last pitcher you want to see. His cutter is the highest-rated cutter in baseball, and it’s not exactly a secret. Through 53 BBE, it has yielded a .197 wOBA, .154 average, a 34% whiff rate, and 39 of 74 strikeouts. Overall, Burnes is one of only two pitchers that is over 42% for his K rate and the FIP/xFIP combo is an astounding 1.07 and 1.66. By those metrics, the 2.33 ERA is actually too high and could go down a little bit. The hard-hit rate is 20.9% and the ground ball rate is 52.7%, inside the top 15 in the league. 

Burnes is coming off a bit of a sub-par start but that was against the Padres and these are two different offenses. Detroit is starting to evolve into a lineup that isn’t a flow chart target anymore. In May, the Tigers are 15th in wOBA, wRC+, they are down to eighth in K rate, and are 11th in OBP. That’s an issue for another day as Burnes is one of the five-to-eight best pitchers in baseball and he’s under $10,000 on DK. 

Rich Hill 

Yankees Ranks vs Pitch Types – FB – 19th CB – 18th CT – 23rd SL – 23rd

I don’t expect Rich Hill to throw another 13 strikeouts tonight but he did just get the Yanks for 32.8 DK points. Hill has defied his age and is rocking a 3.63 ERA with a 3.75 xFIP and has the home run issues largely under control at a 1.21 HR/9 with a 27.9% K rate. His WHIP of 1.02 is the best since 2016 for the veteran and the swinging-strike rate of 12.1% is the best since 2011. His curveball has been the biggest reason as it’s rated as the fifth-best curve in the majors at this juncture. No, I did not think I’d be typing that in the year 2021 as the calendar gets ready to turn to June. It’s only allowed a .230 wOBA and has 19 strikeouts on the season. 

While Hill has given up all seven bombs to the right side of the plate, his 3.54 xFIP is not that scary at all and the K rate stays strong at 27.1%. We saw some of the upside in his earlier start and the Yankee offense is hurt and hasn’t been near what we thought in the spring. They remain below average in ISO, OPS, and wOBA this year while striking out 23.7% of the time. The salary is on the high side but Hill is having a legitimately good season thus far. 

Wade Miley 

Phillies Ranks vs Pitch Types – CT – 4th CH – 20th FB – 28th

Miley is not typically a member of this article but this slate is pretty poor overall for pitching. My intention as of Sunday night is to be very heavy on the Burnes/Rodon combo and work around the limitations with cheaper bats. However, if you’re looking for the riskier route and want the big bats, Miley could lead you down that path. The cutter data looks scary, but Odubel Herrera and Rhys Hoskins carry the majority of that rating. While Hoskins is a big threat with a wOBA over .430 and a .271 ISO, Herrera is at a .122 ISO and is a little less worrisome. 

Miley’s K rate is a paltry 18.9% but Philly is third in K rate to lefty pitching at 30.5%. The 59.4% K rate is second in baseball by exactly 0.1% so far and Philly is hitting a ground ball 44.4% of the time, 13th in baseball. Even with the Phillies being a righty-heavy team, Miley still has just a .270 wOBA to that side of the plate and a 1.08 WHIP. Philadelphia is below league average in every major offensive category we use and if Miley can score 15-18 DK points, that’s all you need.

Honorable Mention – Jose Berrios, James Kaprielian (gets a good offense to pick on but the 4.81 xFIP compared to a 1.53 ERA so far is worrisome), Vince Velasquez

Starting Rotation 5.31 Stacking Options 

  1. Rays against Jameson Taillon (Austin Meadows, Joey Wendle, Ji-Man Choi, Brett Phillips, Randy Arozarena)
  2. A’s against Logan Gilbert (Matt Olson, Mark Canha, Seth Brown, Ramon Laureano)
  3. Giants against Dylan Bundy (Mike Yastrzemski, Brandon Crawford, Buster Posey, Mike Tauchman)
  4. Astros who are very underpriced against Eduardo Rodriguez (Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, Yuli Gurriel, Kyle Tucker, Carlos Correa)

Thank you for reading my Starting Rotation 5.31 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

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