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Marcell Ozuna

MLB DFS Aces and Bases (Apr. 9)

jason mezrahi 2 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

Today's edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel's five-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

The biggest weather threat is in Washington for Chris Bassitt's first start for his new team -- the New York Mets! But there's no enough rain in the a...

2 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports MLB

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 5/8 (FanDuel Main Slate)

Antonio D'Arcangelis 3 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s seven-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

Some nasty storms firing up later tonight in the area of the White Sox at Royals game but other than that no major weather concerns for the 7:05 slate.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top Ace: Clayton Kershaw ($11,000)

The pitching in the main slate is pretty ugly, though you should check out the deep dive Adam Strangis gave us in his 5/8 Starting Rotation piece for more info. Kershaw is the top spend of the main slate and I’ll probably be avoiding Lance Lynn and the chance for a weather-impacted start for the White Sox hurler in Kansas City. I do like one pitcher a lot more for GPP value, but it’s silly to think anyone has higher floor tonight than a future HOFer in Kershaw facing their Pasadena counterparts. The Angels — slightly below league average against lefties — have a low team strikeout rate (second-lowest in baseball at 21.6%), but they also have the lowest projected run total of the 14 teams that encompass this slate. Kershaw got knocked around by the Cubs on May 4 but threw just 39 pitches and should be plenty ready for a MLB DFS rebound on short rest.

Best GPP Value: Ian Anderson ($7,900)

Another solid pitcher looking to bounce back from a bad outing, Anderson didn’t fare well against the high contact Blue Jays in his last start, failing to get into one of his customary bat-missing grooves. But the Phillies have the second-highest team strikeout rate in the majors this year (27.9%) and that’s what I’m looking for on FanDuel, where “Ks are King” for SP in MLB DFS. Anderson whiffs over 10 batters per 9 IP, and he’s been plagued by an abnormally high HR/FB rate so far this season. Expect him to notch himelf 7-8 KS and stand a very good shot at a quality start/win with his Atlanta Braves standing at -170 to -180 favorites at home.

Contrarian GPP Value: Garrett Richards ($7,400)

Richards has shown the ability to strike out 10+ batters in an outing, which he accomplished against the Mets on April 27 in a monster 58-point FanDuel performance. The Orioles aren’t the pushovers they were a couple years ago, but the team K rate is still 24.6% and their measly team wRC+ of 89 is uninspiring from a DFS perspective. If you’re looking for an off-the-radar play with some upside as a pivot from chalk and the obvious GPP value that Anderson offers, Richards could be a fine MLB DFS leverage play who’s capable of 40-50 FP tonight. Over his past 12 IP, he’s struck out 17 batters to just one BB.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Atlanta Braves vs. PHI RHP Vince Velasquez

The Braves have the highest total of the slate (5 runs) and while Vince Velasquez has been a dynamic pitcher in the past, his 2021 numbers aren’t great. His painfully high walk rate (6.38 BB/9) and high FIP/xFIP (6.13/4.62) could be a huge problem against an admittedly circular Braves lineup that features some of the best batters in baseball vs. RHP, including Ronald Acuna ($4,400), Freddie Freeman ($4,000), a switch-hitting Ozzie Albies ($3,300) and value-laden Austin Riley ($2,500). There’s also Marcell Ozuna ($3,500) and young C William Contreras ($2,800). The top MLB DFS guys from Atlanta are not chap, so I’ll probably make some different combos of four-man stacks with Anderson and a few with Garrett Richards.

Value Stack: Houston Astros vs. TOR LHP Steven Matz

I thought the Astros would be more expensive, honestly, but the pricing hasn’t caught up to just how hot Alex Bregman ($3,600) is getting. Bregman’s .420 wOBA this season vs. LHP is a number that’s actually come down since 2019 — when it was .430 from 2018-19. The team’s wRC+ is 124 over the past 14 days, a mark equaled only by the Yankees, who have seen their bats heat up behind a rejuvenated Giancarlo Stanton. Yordan Alvarez ($3,700) is a lefty who mashes lefties and both Yulieski Gurriel ($2,900) and Carlos Correa ($3,100) have massive HR upside in a lineup that produces lots of runs. Did I mention that Jose Altuve ($3,400) has four hits including a HR) in his last nine AB? Even Michael Brantley ($3,000) works just fine as a contrarian LHB play as the No. 2 hitter in a 1-4 stack here, and nobody’s price is too outrageous.

Contrarian Stack: Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles LHP Zac Lowther

We know that Bregman mashes lefties, but only Nolan Arenado (.460 wOBA, but with the boost of Mile-High home games) and J.D. Martinez and his .457 wOBA ($4,300) have done more against LHP since 2017. Mrtinex makes foe a great anchor in a four-man Red Sox stack that also includes Rafael Devers ($3,500) — who boats a .410 wOBA in 30 AB vs. LHP this season — Xander Bogaerts ($3,600) and the sneaky Marwin Gonzalez ($2,400), if he gets another spot near the top of the lineups tonight. Stay tuned to see who gets the final nod in the Red Sox starting nine hitters, but a core of Martinez, Devers and Bogaerts is a great start against the inexperienced Lowther, who is bound to struggle against the Sox tonight in Baltimore.

Good luck, and make sure you utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

3 years ago 0 comment

MLB Daily Fantasy Sports

10/15 DFS MLB Two-Game Postseason Slate and Showdown Picks

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

Things are heating up in the MLB and we’ve got two games on tapfor 10/15 DFS — here are my picks for the two-game slate and the featuredShowdown.

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10/15 DFS Two-Game Slate(DK & FD)

The games for 10/15 DFS: Houston Astros at New York Yankees (4:08 p.m. EST) & St. Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals (8:05 p.m. EST)

10/15DFS SP Strategy and Picks

Gerrit Cole isthe top pitcher and I don’t think even the Yankees can hit him, so I’ll beusing him with Luis Severino some of the better hitters from the Cards-Nats anda bat or two from the Astros – and maybe one at most from the Yankees.

SP1: GerritCole (DK $10,200, FD $11,800)

Cole’s game logs are preposterous to look at, as he’s struck out10 batters or more in his last 11 starts. The Bombers lefty bats could yank oneout in the short right field porch, but he’s bound for another 10+ Ks and 7+ inningsof low-WHIP hurling.

SP2: LuisSeverino (DK $6,900, FD $7,800)

Given his price and my narrative of stacking against the pitchers in the NLCS game, I’ll need to plug him in here and hope for the best. This probably isn’t a game the Yankees will win unless Severino pitches extremely well and taps into the home splits (3.55 ERA career, 27.9% K rate and .288 wOBA at Yankee Stadium in his career).

10/15 DFS Hitters

10/15 DFS C: Yadier Molina, STL (DK $3,300, FD $2,600)

Molina is the only viable value option at C if we fade the Astros-Yanks. I’ll eat the chalk here, because Yadier is a HOF catcher who refuses to go out like a chump and get swept by the Nats.

10/15 DFS 1B: Paul Goldschmidt, STL (DK $4,400, FD $3,800)

Goldschmidt is cheaper than Howie Kendrick and facing a LHP (148wRC+ and .298 ISO vs. LHPs in 2019). He’s locked into the 1B slot in mylineups. Pivot: Kendrick

10/15 DFS 2B: D.J. LeMahieu, NYY (DK $4,500, 1B on FD $3,700)

LeMahieu is a contact hitter with power to all fields and he’s batting leadoff – so he’s guaranteed the most plate appearances for the Yankees. My sole contrarian bat at what feels like a reasonable price, I’ll be counting on him to differentiate. Pivot: Jose Altuve

10/15 DFS 3B: Anthony Rendon, WAS (DK $5,100, FD $4,000)

The chalk here will probably be Alex Bregman, since he’s $100cheaper than the Nats 3B and facing a hittable righty in Yankee Stadium, but Rendonhas a .241 ISO vs. RHPs and Dakota Hudson doesn’t have very high K numbers(7.01 K/9 in 2019) Pivot: Bregman

10/15 DFS SS: Paul DeJong, STL, (DK $4,000, FD $2,800)

Another not-too-exciting play, DeJong did manage to collect acouple hits in Game 3 and should remain low-owned with some of the bugger nameslike Trea Turner, Bregman and Gleyber Torres at SS. Pivot: Torres

10/15 DFS OF: Josh Reddick, HOU (DK $3,400, FD $2,600)

The lanky lefty gets the start in right field in Game 3 even thoughhe struggled at the plate during the ALDS (1-for-10). He’s avalue play who’s hit righties well over the course of his career (110 wRC+,.172 ISO). Pivot:Dexter Fowler, Victor Robles

10/15 DFS OF: Marcell Ozuna, STL (DK $4,900, FD $3,900)

Ozuna has cooled off a bit at the plate since the NLDS, but he still collected two hits (including a double) last night against the Nats. He previously had multi-hit games in all of the NLDS games except Game 5, when the game was out of reach for the opposition after the huge first inning. Pivot: Yordan Alvarez

10/15 DFS OF: Jose Martinez, STL (DK $4,000, FD $2,400)

Another plug-n-play for his value, Martinez could be overlookedsince he’s been out of the lineup so much in the playoffs. But he’s likelygetting the start against LHP Patrick Corbin and has plenty of upside for hisprice. Pivot: Michael Brantley

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10/15 DFS FeaturedSingle-Game (8:08 EST on FD)

Sample FD lineup:

MVP (2x) – M. Ozuna (8,000)

All-Star (1.5x) – A. Rendon ($9,500)

UTIL – D. Fowler ($6,500)

UTIL – J. Martinez ($4,000)

UTIL – P. DeJong ($6,500)

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10/15 DFS FeaturedShowdown (8:08 EST on DK)

Sample DK Showdown Lineup:

Captain (1.5x) – M Ozuna ($13,500)

UTIL – V. Robles ($7,600)

UTIL – J. Martinez ($8,000)

UTIL – Y. Molina ($5,000)

UTIL – P. DeJong ($7,200)

UTIL – D. Hudson ($8,200)

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB Daily Fantasy Sports

10/14 DFS MLB NLCS Showdown

Brandon C. Williams 5 years ago

written by Brandon C. Williams

Game 3 of the NLCS heads to Washington, where the Nationals toss Stephen Strasburg against Cardinals hurler Jack Flaherty in a must-win for the Redbirds (8:38 PM Eastern, TBS). The 10/14 DFS MLB Showdown could be a challenge in finding runs as both pitchers have mostly had their A-game stuff in the postseason.

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10/14 DFS Showdown: STL @ WAS

MVP/Captain (2X)

Anthony Rendon, 3B, WAS (DK $15,300, FD $9500)

Our 10/14 DFS MLB NLCS Showdown play. With Flaherty and Strasburg on the bump, chances are one decisive swing is all that will be needed. If so, I’m running with Rendon and his .346/.457/.577 with a 1.034 OPS. Keep in mind, Rendon was dominant at home in the regular season, where he hit 20 of his 34 homers along with a 1.042 OPS.

All-Star (1.5X FanDuel Only)

Marcell Ozuna, OF, STL (DK $12,900, FD $8000)

Right now, Ozuna may be the only bat worth trusting in the Cards lineup. He can do damage with runners on base, but Dexter Fowler (.260 OPS) and Kolten Wong (.608 OPS) have been ineffective in the postseason. If the Cards don’t want Tuesday to be an elimination game, Ozuna and his .818 OPS with runners in scoring position (regular season) had better be used.

Dial U for Utility

Utility

Howie Kendrick, 1B/2B, WAS (DK $13,200, FD $5500)

Kendrick: For Hire is a must in either Showdown format. He went .500 (11-for-22) versus the Cardinals during the regular season and has two hits and a run scored in the first two games of the NLCS. Keep in mind that Kendrick also recorded a career-best .228 Isolated Power and 45.5% hard contact rate.

Utility

Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, STL (DK $12,300, FD $7500)

On the surface, his numbers looked OK, but Goldschmidt did fall from 5.2 WAR to 2.9 while watching both his Isolated Power and BABIP take significant hits. He’s here because he’s still capable of changing the complexion of a game (or series) if his 47.5 hard contact rate can merge with his 39.4% fly ball rate at the opportune time. If theres a 10/14 DFS MLB NLCS Showdown difference maker, he is it.

Utility

Kirk Suzuki, C, WAS (DK $11,100, FD $4500)

I wouldn’t be surprised if Yan Gomes gets the start behind the plate for the Nats, but Suzuki is there for defense. Sleeper play for the 10/14 DFS MLB Showdown sleeper? Yup. He’s hitless in the postseason (0-for-16), a strange reason why I find him appealing. Sooner or later, a lagging bat will make up for lost time, so don’t be shocked if Suzuki rises up.

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5 years ago 0 comment

MLB Daily Fantasy Sports

10/11 MLB DFS Draftkings Showdown Picks – NLCS Game 1

Richard Masana 5 years ago

written by Richard Masana

It’s 10/11 DFS and we’re underway in the NLCS – let’s get right to the MLB picks for the Showdown contest on DraftKings and find you some gems to win you $$$.

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10/11 DFS DK Showdown

The game: Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinals (8:08 p.m.EST)

General strategy: I’m focused a lot more on hitters in this one, wecould see some important innings to start the game from both Miles Mikolas andveteran RHP Anibal Sanchez, who pitched five strong innings (with 9 Ks) againstthe Dodgers on Sunday. I’ll be building three GPP lineups with at least one embracingsome off-the-radar plays, but I’ll provide one cash game sample at the end of thecolumn.

10/11 DFS Showdown – Captain Spot

Pitchers: I’d probably only consider Sanchez for theCaptain spot of the two starters, simply because he has better road splits and thePark Factor at Busch Stadium should help him. Mikolas has just a 17.2% K rate athome. But I’m not in love with playing either of them in the Captain spot.

CPT Option1: Howie Kendrick ($14,100)

Kendrick has the requisite experience and track record to get it done at a reasonable price that allows us to fit in some pricier options at the utility spots. He’s 8-for-11 career with a HR and a .788 wOBA off Mikolas in that small sample, and that kind of stuff may not matter as much during the six month slog of the regular season, but it matters to me in October.

CPT Option 2: Trea Turner ($15,300)

If you’re not convinced that Kendrick should warrant top consideration then Nats S Trea Turner makes a lot of sense for his mix of power and speed. He was quiet in Game 5 against the Dodgers but had two multi-hit games in the series including a 3-for-5 in Game 4. He also hit 17 homers this season vs. RHPs in 2019.

10/11 DFS Showdown – Utility Options

Big spends: JuanSoto ($10,000) and Paul Goldschmidt ($8,600)

Soto’s homer in the eighth inning off of Clayton Kershaw tied the game and exited his bat at around 110 MPH – an impressive stat in such a huge moment. Soto is a fearless hitter with as much upside as any of the young players in this game and he’s got a 155 wRC+ against RHP this season, including 28 home runs and a .303 ISO. He’s a fine play as captain as well, but he’ll be chalky.

Goldschmidthas solid postseason stats and is relatively cheap among the higher pricedstars at $8,600. He’s also going to be chalky with five hits in his last nineABs, including a homer in Game 4.

Big Spend Pivots: Anibal Sanchez ($10,400), Marcell Ozuna ($9,000)

10/11 DFS Showdown – Mid-range, Value and Punt options

Mid-range 1: Ryan Zimmerman ($7,400) – Worth a look for his power and experience.

Mid-range 2: Paul DeJong ($7,600) – He’s near the bottom of the Cards lineup now but that’s not a bad place to look in Showdowns – when one big AB can mean all the difference in the world.

Value 1: Dexter Fowler ($5,600) – The Cards leadoff man and another underrated playoff contributor who was big in Game 5.

Value 2: Yan Gomes ($6,200) – Monstrous but risky power hitter who could get the start with Kurt Suzuki in the concussion protocol.

GPP punts: Yadier Molina ($5,200), Harrison Bader ($4,000) Sean Doolittle ($3,000)

Sample cash DK Showdown Lineup (no pitchers, just $100 left)

CPT (1.5x) – H. Kendrick

UTIL – J.Soto

UTIL – P.Goldschimdt

UTIL – Y.Gomes

UTIL – D. Fowler

UTIL – Y.Molina

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5 years ago 0 comment

MLB Daily Fantasy Sports

10/9 MLB DFS Two-Game Postseason Slate and Showdown Picks

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

We’ve reached the decisive Game 5 for both NLDS matchups on 10/9 DFS — here are my picks for the two-game slate and the featured Showdown.

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10/9 DFS Two-Game Slate (DK& FD)

The games: St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves (5:02 p.m.), Washington Nationals atLos Angeles Dodgers (8:37 p.m.)

10/9 DFS SP Strategy and Picks

I’m focused on the home favorite for SP1 here – since home-fieldadvantage in the MLB playoffs is a real and palpable thing. The DK pricing is,thankfully, soft enough for us to find plenty of big bats. For SP2, I’ll have alittle of both Jack Flaherty (consistent value at his price) and MikeFoltynewicz, who was excellent in his start on Oct. 4. Startingpitching has been really great in the postseason thus far, so youreally can’t go wrong with any combo.

SP1: Walker Buehler (DK $9,000, FD $10,300)

Buehler has the highest upside of any pitcher on the slate, evenif his leash is a little shorter than Strasburg’s. For the $400 discount, he’smy SP1 – and I’m fine with him being chalky.

SP2: Jack Flaherty (DK $7,400, FD $9,600)

Flahery has been one of the best pitchers in baseball since the All-star break (his .189 wOBA in the second half is almost beyond belief) and he went 117 pitches in his last start, which tells me the Cards are going to let him win or lose this thing.

10/9 DFS Hitters

10/9DFS C: Yadier Molina, STL (DK $3,900, FD $2,800)

Molina was thehero on Monday for the Cards, and while he’s back on the road for decuisiveGame 5, this veteran has had success against Folty in a limited sample (7-for-18,.432 wOBA with a HR) Pivot: Brian McCann (DK $3,200)

10/9DFS 1B: Paul Goldschmidt, STL (DK $4,900, FD $3,800)

He came through for us on Monday so I’m going back to the well inGame 5. Goldy is one of the best fantasy assets in baseball over the past fiveyears and he’s a complete offensive player who can rack up the XBH. The pricehas come up a bit but he’s worth the extra expense. Pivot: Freddie Freeman

10/9DFS 2B: Max Muncy, LAD (DK $4,500, 3B on FD $3,800)

Muncy is having an electric postseason with a couple homers andthree games scoring over 20 DK points. He’s eligible at 1B if you’re stacking Dodgersand want to use Gavin Lux at second base for the discount. Pivot: Gavin Lux

10/9DFS 3B: Justin Turner, LAD (DK $4,200, FD $3300)

I’m not a hugebeliever in BvP, but a small sample analysis within the small sample frameworkof the playoffs makes some sense. The track record against Strasburg and RHPsin general is a good one, and Turner((142 wRC+ and .294 ISO this season) has homered in his last twogames this postseason. Pivot: Anthony Rendon/Tommy Edman

10/9DFS SS: Corey Seager, LAD (DK $3,900, FD $2,900)

There’s plenty of risk starting Seageragainst Strasburg, but he’s an exciting young player who came alive in Septemberwith a .304/.337/.646 slash line, seven homersand 23 RBI during the final month, and he has a clear affinity for playoffbaseball. He’s been getting hits but hasn’t posted the big lien yet. Today couldbe the day he breaks through with some XBH. Pivot: Paul DeJong

10/9DFS OF: Juan Soto, WAS (DK $4,500, FD $3,700)

I won’t have to much exposure to the Nationals in this game, butone player who’s worth the risk is Soto – who had a monster Game 3 and appearsready for the big stage of a Game 5. If the Nats pull this out, he’s going tohave a lot to do with it. Pivot: Clay Bellinger

10/9DFS OF: Marcell Ozuna, STL (DK $4,900, FD $3,900)

There isn’t a hotter hitter in the NL postseason than Ozuna, whohas multi-hit games in all of the NLDS tilts thus far and is coming off atwo-homer game in Game 4. He’ll be extremely chalky on this two-game slate becausehis game logs will attract plenty of attention from the masses – but you shouldhave some exposure to this slugger who hit 31 homers in 2019 and now has a.275/.341/.650 slash line against the Braves in 2019 if you count thepostseason. Pivot: Ronald Acuna

10/9DFS OF: Matt Joyce, ATL (DK $3,200, FD $2,300)

We need to find some value somewhere, so Joyce fits the bill if he’sin the starting lineup. If he’s not, you’ll have a difficult decision to make –since it could be difficult to find a viable DK OF under $3,500. Pivot: DexterFowler (DK $3,900)

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10/9DFS Featured Single-Game (8:37 ESTon FD)

Hitters only – so we can focus on the Dodgers bats we like andplay one or two Nats hitters with upside. We’ll slap the modestly priced JustinTurner in the MVP spot, since many will be drawn to the higher priced bats at 2x.

SampleFD lineup:

MVP (2x) – J. Turner ($7,000) – If he homers, he’ll pay off

All-Star (1.5x) – T. Turner ($8,500) – His ability to steal basesat will could be huge today.

UTIL – M. Muncy ($8,000)

UTIL – C. Seager ($6,500)

UTIL – G. Lux ($5,000)

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10/9DFS Featured Showdown (8:37 p.m.on DK)

It may be beneficial to play one or two Dodgers and/or Nats batswe like, somehow fit in Buehler and pick an off-the-wall bench player on eitherteam to come through with a big hit late in the game.

Sample DK Showdown Lineup:

Captain (1.5x) – J. Turner ($12,000)

UTIL – W. Buehler ($11,000)

UTIL – G. Lux ($4,200)

UTIL – M. Muncy ($9,000)

UTIL – J. Soto ($8,800)

UTIL – B. Dozier ($5,000)

5 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports MLB

9/23 DFS Hitting Picks and Stacks: Monday Mayhem

Cora Baylis 5 years ago

written by Cora Baylis

For the final Monday of the regular season, we have an abbreviated five-game slate ahead of us. While that’s small, it should make for a fun schedule. What’s crazy about this time of the year are all of the wacky managerial decisions. Many pitchers are having pitch counts limited and many teams who are out of it are experimenting and it’s causing chaos for DFS players. With that in mind, we only have two great stacks, so, let’s get to our 9/23 DFS hitting picks and stacks of the day.

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Baltimore Orioles vs. Clay Buchholz

While Baltimore may not be the prettiest team of the day, they’re easily my favorite stack. That’s one of the major reasons I like them though, as they should be low-owned. That paired with this matchup is a beautiful recipe. With the O’s squaring off with Clay Buchholz. The Toronto righty has been atrocious this season, pitching to a 7.16 ERA and 1.55 WHIP since his first start. That’s a nightmarish nine-game stretch and Baltimore was a major part of that, dropping seven runs and 10 hits on him in his most recent outing. Getting to use the Orioles is a huge salary saver too and these guys will be sprinkled into all of my lineups.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Jhoulys Chacin

While Chacin is only expected to go a handful of innings, we still love the Rays. Let’s begin with that starter, as Chacin is pitching to a 5.66 ERA and 1.55 WHIP this season. Those dreadful numbers should get Tampa off to a nice start and then the bullpen should continue their big evening. In fact, the Red Sox bullpen is allowing 5.07 runs per game, ranking 20^th in MLB. That gives the Rays great matchup after great matchup and all of these guys are reasonably affordable too.

9/23 DFS Hitting Stacks of the Day

9/23 DFS Hitting Catcher

Wilson Ramos, NYM vs. MIA

DK ($3,600) FD ($2,500)

It was very tough to pick a catcher on this slate but Ramos is always a good option. What makes him intriguing today is the fact that he gets to face a lefty, with Ramos accumulating a .350 AVG, .424 OBP and .958 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor this season. He actually has a .910 OPS against lefties dating all the way back to 2017 and he clearly sees the ball a lot better from that side. This happens to be a struggling lefty too, with Caleb Smith pitching to a 6.38 ERA and 1.44 WHIP over his last eight starts.

9/23 DFS Hitting First Baseman

Ji-Man Choi, TB vs. BOS

DK ($4,400) FD ($3,100)

This is probably my favorite per-dollar play on the board. The reason for that is because Choi has been one of the best hitters in the league the last month, providing a .303 AVG, .417 OBP, .621 SLG and 1.038 OPS over his last 22 games. That’s really no surprise when you see his splits, with Choi generating a .373 OBP, .498 SLG and .871 OPS against right-handers since 2017. That’s why the Rays typically bat him leadoff or cleanup in these circumstances, only adding to his value in this superb matchup

9/23 DFS Hitting Second Baseman

Starlin Castro, MIA at NYM

DK ($3,900) FD ($3,000)

This is one of the first times I’ve written up a Marlin all season but Castro has quietly had a nice year for them. Collecting 21 homers and 84 RBI for this lineup and nightmare ballpark is a testament to how good Castro has been and he’s simply way underpriced on these DFS sites. The thing that makes him enticing today is that he gets to face a lefty, with Castro providing a .325 AVG, .541 SLG and .895 OPS against them this season. We’re really not concerned about Steven Matz and his 4.54 FIP and 1.33 WHIP either.

9/23 DFS Hitting Third Baseman

Vladimir Guerrero Jr, TOR vs. BAL

DK ($4,000) FD ($3,200)

Why is this dude priced so cheaply? He’s been one of the best hitters in the AL since putting on a show in the Home Run Derby and it’s just a matter of time before he’s one of the best hitters in our sport. Since July 19, Guerrero has a .325 AVG, .383 OBP, .515 SLG and .899 OPS. That’s the stud that we were waiting for and we have to love him against Dylan Bundy’s 4.89 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. In 53 at-bats against this putrid pitching staff, Guerrero is hitting .472 en route to a .717 SLG and 1.217 OPS.

9/23 DFS Hitting Shortstop

Jonathan Villar, BAL at TOR

DK ($4,900) FD ($3,500)

Villar is easily my favorite play of our Orioles stack. He’s expected to hit leadoff against Buchholz and that alone puts him in play. His recent form is absolutely absurd too, with Villar posting a .327 AVG, .397 OBP, .578 SLG and .976 OPS over his last 53 games played. He also has 21 steals in that span and he’s simply one of the best power-speed guys in the league right now. Getting the platoon advantage against Buchholz is the icing on the cake, with Villar amassing a .357 OBP, .470 SLG and .827 OPS against righties while swiping 29 of his 38 steals this season.

9/23 DFS Hitting Outfielders

Juan Soto, WSH vs. PHI

DK ($5,100) FD ($4,200)

We provided a ton of value in the infield write-ups, so let’s give you guys some studs in the outfield. Soto is just that, as he’s one of the league leaders with a .401 OBP and .966 OPS. Those are amazing numbers from a 20-year-old and much of that damage has come recently. Over his last 50 games, Soto has a .415 OBP, .667 SLG and 1.082 OPS. That’s bad news for Zach Eflin, with Soto totaling a .414 OBP .602 SLG and 1.015 OPS against right-handers this season.

Austin Meadows, TB vs. BOS

DK ($5,500) FD ($4,400)

Meadows has truly broken out as one of the best OF’s in the AL and it appears we have a perennial All-Star for years to come. Any rookie with 32 homers and a .286 AVG is impressive but it’s also backed up by a .563 SLG and .921 OPS. He’s absolutely scorching right now too, accruing a .325 AVG, .394 OBP, .737 SLG and 1.131 OPS over his last 29 games played. Facing Chacin and this crappy bullpen is simply a bonus, with Meadows posting a .383 OBP, .582 SLG and .964 OPS against righties so far this year.

Marcell Ozuna, STL at ARI

DK ($4,500) FD ($3,300)

I really don’t want to stack against Alex Young with the way he’s pitching but Ozuna is a nice one-off. We’re still talking about a guy with a .282 AVG, .488 SLG and .832 OPS dating back to 2017 and he’s simply one of the best power bats in baseball. He’s always been better against southpaws despite his down numbers this year, posting a .288 AVG, .353 wOBA and .490 SLG against them for his career. Young is certainly a guy who could see some negative regression too, with the lefty’s 4.51 xFIP way off of his 3.27 ERA.

5 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports MLB

9/19 DFS Hitting Picks and Stacks: Twins Will Get You Wins

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

We’ve got a split slate for 9/19 DFS: DraftKings has a six-game slate that starts at 6:35, while FanDuel is excluding the Angels-Yankees again and starting a four-gamer at 7:05. We’re focusing on three stacks and just a couple contrarian builds, as well as our usual buffet of hitters at every position. Let’s get rolling, because the Yanks and Twins will get you wins!

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9/19 DFS Hitting Stacks ofthe Day

Minnesota Twins vs. Mike Montgomery

The Twins were a total dud on Wednesday night against the fullWhite Sox bullpen, scoring just one run on three hits across nine boringinnings. Today is a great day for a rebound, as the Royals left-hander can beexposed by hitters from both sides of the plate. Montgomery has been a reversesplits pitcher this season, yielding an amusing .443/.464/.709 slash toopposing LHBs. Over the course of his whole career, the disparity isn’t as noticeable.I like all the Twins here, since they brutalize lefties (.287/.353/.523 slash,.363 wOBA and a 127 wRC+) and will be starting my stacks with Eddie Rosario,Nelson Cruz and Mitch Garver (who’s an insane $5,600 on DK). Add in Miguel Sanoor C.J. Cron on FD and Jorge Polanco on DK.

New York Yankees vs. Andrew Heaney (DK)

I was little concerned about the Yankees rolling out an unorthodoxlineup with the division clinched, but Tampa came back and beat the Dodgers! They’llbe hungry for their 100^th win of the season and thirsty forchampagne on their home turf, but they’ll be facing a left-hander who’s pitchedquite well in 2019. Their salaries are a little low because of the matchup, butHeaney isn’t enough to keep me off them. I’ll be using a lot of Mike Clevinger withMasahiro Tanaka/Kyle Gibson/Drew Verhagen, so there will be plenty of combosthat will allow me to stack D.J. LeMahieu ($4,600), Gleyber Torres ($4,700), AaronJudge ($4,500), Gio Urshela ($4,300) and Luke Voit ($4,400) though I’ll only begrabbing a few shares of Giancarlo Stanton at his outrageous price ($5,400)

Toronto Blue Jays at Gabriel Ynoa

I said Tuesday the Blue Jays would be a sneaky stack, and CavanBiggio responded by hitting for the cycle. They’re not as sneaky this timearound, since they battled with Baltimore last night as the teams combined for21 runs. Ynoa is 1-8 with a 5.74 ERA and 1.40 WHIP, and he’s given up 25 homeruns in just 100.1 IP. All the usual suspects make sense here, with the 1-5hitters as the priority bats.

9/19 DFS Hitting Stacks to Consider

Cleveland Indians vs. Daniel Norris/Drew VerHagen

St. Louis Cardinals at Kyle Hendricks (contrarian)

9/19 DFS HittingCatcher

Austin Romine, NYY vs. LAA

DK ($3,600)

Pay $2,000 more for Mitch Garver on DK if you want, but if youwant some cheap exposure to the Yankees, blend Romine into your Yankees stacks.He’s slashing .281/.312/.438 this season and sports an impressive .172 ISO vs.LHPsthis season. Romine isn’t the most exciting option, but we need to save a littleit of salary somewhere, and if we’re not paying way up or Garver, Romine makessense.

9/19 DFS Hitting FirstBaseman

Rowdy Tellez or JustinSmoak, TOR at BAL

DK (both$3,900) FD ($2,600/$2,700)

Since Tellez sat on Tuesday and ruined all my work recommendinghim, I’ll bring you up to speed: Rowdy scored three runs on Wednesday and isstill destroying right-handed pitching (.209 ISO this season). It’s usuallyeither him or Justin Smoak in the lineup, and I like them both in Baltimore’sbandbox. Smoak boasts a .231 ISO vs. RHPs in 2019.

9/19 DFS Hitting SecondBaseman

Cavan Biggio, TOR at BAL

DK ($5.300) FD($3,900)

Biggio hit for the cycle on Tuesday and is the one Jays bat I wantin all my GPP lineups. I touted is speed and power abilities and he respondedby doing what five-tool platers do – mashing and slashing. Biggio is 14-for-29 overhis last seven games with 133 DK points over that span (19 FPPG). And his .112wRC+ this season is in the top 10 among 2B.

9/19 DFS Hitting ThirdBaseman

D.J. LeMahieu, NYY vs. LAA

(DK $4,600)

LeMahieu is having an MVP-caliber season for the Yankeeswith a wRC+ of 136 and a torrid slash line of .329/.378/.515. He’s ben their steadiestplayer and has flashed impressive power (.186 ISO) against both LHPs and RHPs. His.402 wOBA and 154 wRC+ in Yankee Stadium is tops on the team, and he’ll be inmost of my lineups tonight.

9/19 DFSHitting Shortstop

Gleyber Torres, NYY vs. LAA

DK ($4,700)

Lindor was a complete disappointment Tuesday, so I’ll be goingback to him in about 2/10 lineups, but the rest of them will have shares of Torresat SS or 2B, where he’s also eligible. Torres has a .255 ISO, .353 OBP, .369wOBA and 132 wRC+ vs. LHPs in 2019, and he’s now hitting in the heart of the Yankeeslineup.

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9/19 DFS HittingOutfielders

Eddie Rosario, MIN vs. KC

DK ($4,800) FD($3,200)

You can’t keep a great hitter down for long, and Rosario(.281/.313/.453 slash vs. LHPs in 2019) is a solid GPP play because he’ll onlybe in about half of the Twins stacks because he’s a lefty bat against a southpaw– a great opportunity against a guy like Montgomery. The Royals starter mightget pulled for a righty after he gets lit up by these Twins, and then your shortsightedDFS opponents will be kicking themselves for not having more exposure to Rosario’s.378 xwOBA against RHPs since 2018.

Aaron Judge, NYY vs. LAA

DK($4,500)

It’s hard to believe this price on Judge, who went deep again onWednesday, but it’s something I’ll be taking advantage of in cash games andGPPS alike. Judge brutalizes lefties, with a .461 wOBA in 120 PA this season,including .347/.467/.663 slash and 8 homers. He hits the ball as hard as anyonewho’s ever played the game, as he sits in the 100^th percentile forExit Velocity and Hard Hit %. Get him in there – he’s primed for a monster day.

Marcell Ozuna, STL vs. CHC

DK ($4,200) FD($3,700)

Ozuna has been relatively quiet lately, so he’s really cheap. Healso has .382 xwOBA this year and has been a much better road hitter this seasonwith a .262/.336/.519 slash and 15 of his 28 HRs in away games. Ozuna also ranksin the 93th percentile for Exit Velocity and 98^th percentile forHard Hit % — and makes for a nice contrarian play vs. a capable hurler in Kyle Hendricks.

Additional options:

C: Reese McGuire ($3,900 DK, $2,800 FD), Mitch Garver ($5,600 DK,$3,000 FD)

1B: Carlos Santana ($4,700 DK, $3,800 FD), C.J. Cron ($3,900 DK, $2,800FD)

3B: Gio Urshela ($4,300 DK) Vladimir Guerrero Jr, ($4,100 DK,$2,900 FD)

2B: Jonathan Villar ($4,800 DK, $3,600 FD), Luis Arraez ($4,200DK, $2,700 FD)

SS: Bo Bichette ($5,400 DK, $3,900 FD), Jorge Polance ($4,800 DK, $3,300FD)

OF: Whit Merrifield ($4,500 DK, $3,300 FD), Anthony Santander ($3,900 DK, $3,100 FD), Trey Mancini ($4,900 DK, $3,800 FD), Brett Gardner ($4,300 DK), Randal Grichuk ($4,500 DK, $3,000 FD), Dexter Fowler ($3,600 DK, $2,900 FD)

5 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports MLB

9/10 DFS Hitting Picks and Stacks: The Cards in Coors

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

It’s tasty Tuesday, and I’m feeling hungry for more action in some GPPs in 9/10 DFS. Let’s fill our plates with some prime MLB DFS hitting picks and satiating stacks for the massive 14-game 7:05 main slate, focusing on what promises to be a run-happy Coors game, a team from the West Coast arriving in a hitter’s paradise, and another sneaky stack or two in good matchups and park upgrades.

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9/10 DFS Hitting Stacks of the Day

St. Louis Cardinals at Chi Chi Rodriguez

The Redbirds have the highest implied total on the slate at 7+ runs and should have no problems hitting the weak offerings of Chi Chi Rodriguez into the cavernous, expansive gaps in the Coors power alleys. A full stack is in order here, with ample shares of the Cards’ 1-5 hitters – Dexter Fowler (DK $4,500, FD $3,600), Kolten Wong (DK $4,800, FD $3,500), Paul Goldchmidt (DK $5,100, FD $4,300), Marcel Ozuna (DK $5,300, FD $4,100), and Paul DeJong (DK $4,800, FD $3,900), and a few combinations that include Yadier Molina (DK $4,300, FD $3,400), Tommy Edman (DK $5,400, FD $3,300) and value option Harrison Bader (DK $3,900, FD $3,000).

Los Angeles Dodgers at Ty Blach

When the Dodgers have faced Blach in the past, it’s been in San Diego or LA, but now they get the scuffling lefthander in Baltimore, where the balls jump out of the park in droves. Blach’s currently sporting a 10.95 ERA and 2.15 WHIP over 24.2 IP in the majors this season, and his minor league numbers are just as pathetic. There are several possible mixtures of the usual 1-5 hitters but A.J. Pollock (DK $4,700, FD $3,800), who has a .401 xwOBA versus LHPs since 2018, David Freese (who’s $5,400 on DK but just $2,700 on FD) and Kiké Hernandez (DK $4,000, FD $2,600) look like good targets to build from and add Cody Bellinger and/or Justin Turner (DTD).

Colorado Rockies at Michael Wacha

The Rockies have been in a hellish 3-17 nosedive in their past 20 games, but a return to Coors is just what they need to liven up that lumber and score some runs. They may not notch a win against the Cards, but the bats of Nolan Arenado (DK $5,300, FD $4,600), Trevor Story (DK $5,400, FD $4,500) and Charlie Blackmon (DK $5,500, FD $4,500) make for an appealing mini-stack if you can afford them. Wacha has an xwOBA approaching the .400 mark over the past two seasons, and the Rockies have the second highest implied total of the slate at over 6 runs.

9/10 DFS Hitting Stacks to Consider

Houston Astros at Tanner Roark

Minnesota Twins vs. Anibal Sanchez

9/10 DFS Hitting Catcher

J.T. Realmuto, PHI vs. ATL

DK ($4,900) FD ($3,800)

I love Realmuto at home against LHPs, and I professed as much in my firstpiece for WinDailySports.com. We’re going back to the well with the Phillies catcher facingMax Fried, who’s not as good against RHBs (.373 xwOBA since 2018). Realmuto’sbeen raking since the start of September and makes for a solid backstop andone-off to differentiate your lineups.

9/10 DFS Hitting First Baseman

Paul Goldschmidt, STL at COL

DK ($5,100) FD ($4,300)

I mentioned him in my Cards stack above, but I’m including himhere to reiterate that I’ll be having close to 100 percent exposure to Goldy inthis matchup. The veteran first baseman has a .327/.415/.608 career slash with15 homers in 289 Coors field plate appearances, so he’s tops on my list andisn’t nearly as expensive as he should be.

9/10 DFS Hitting Second Baseman

Nick Solak, TEX vs. TB

DK ($3,900) FD ($3,300)

Solak has made an immediate impression in DFS with a.328/.449/.500 slash in his first 19 games in the bigs, with a .320 ISO vs.LHPs. He’s going to be low-owned facing the capable Ryan Yarbrough, comes at adiscount, and bats fourth in a hitter’s park. There’s plenty to like if you’relooking for value component with some positional flexibility (2B/3B on DK) thatoffers ample upside.

9/10 DFS Hitting Third Baseman

Rafael Devers, BOS at TOR

DK ($5,200) FD ($3,800)

Devers absolutely crushes Toronto pitching, and since we don’t know how long T.J. Zeuch will toe the slab on Tuesday, he’s a fine option no matter who’s on the hill. In 15 games against the Jays (59 AB) he’s slashing .441/.484/.915 with 8 homers and just 7 Ks. He’s expensive, but he should command less ownership than Nolan Arenado at the hot corner and offers a high-upside pivot from the Coors game

9/10 DFS Hitting Shortstop

Paul DeJong, STL at COL

DK ($4,800) FD ($3,900)

Like the other Paul on this team, I’m having a hard timeclicking on any other name at his respective position. Trevor Story is obviouslyan option, but DeJong’s a little more affordable and has just as much upside ina larger implied total. He’s only played a couple games in Coors, but he has ahomer, sports a .411 road xwOBA over his past couple seasons, and shouldn’thave trouble with Chi Chi or the Rockies bullpen.

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9/10 DFS Hitting Outfielders

A.J. Pollock, LAD at BAL

DK ($4,700) FD ($3,800)

We’rea few games removed from Pollock’s 3-HR day, but if there’s a spot to jump onboard, it’s now. He’s hitless in his last two games but gets a massive parkupgrade and shouldn’t be as highly owned as the Cards OF and some of the biggername bats. Dodgers OF Chris Taylor (DK $4,400, FD $2,800) could be the pivot ifyou’re looking to fit some different Dodgers bats and need some savings.

Ronald Acuna, Jr., ATL at PHI

DK ($5,200) FD ($4,000)

Acuna led off last night’s game with a homer and now has 38 round trippers on the season. He’s fared well against the Phillies this season with a .333/.452/.529 slash – and he’s got a massive .487 xwOBA and .279 ISO vs. LHPs. Jason Vargas has pitched well this season, but he’s benefited from a low BABIP (.266) and has given up 15 HRs to RHBs.

Dexter Fowler, STL at COL

DK ($4,500) FD ($3,600)

Grabbing the leadoff hitter in any stack is always a smart move, andwhile Fowler doesn’t offer the same raw power as the other Cards bats, he’scertainly got the bat skills to rope some doubles and triples in Coors Field, wherehe began his Major League career. The numbers in that venue are staggering(.300/.397/.492 with 67 doubles, 35 triples and 29 HR in 342 games, 290 of whichhe started).

Additional options:

C: Yadier Molina, Austin Hedges (DK $2,600)

1B: Eric Thames (FD $2,700), Ryan O’Hearn (DK $3,400, FD $2,400)

2B: Kiké Hernandez (FD), Kolten Wong

3B: UPDATED (Gyorko NOT STARTING today) Yoan Moncada, Travis Shaw (value)

SS: Manny Machado (DK $4,000, FD $3,500), Jean Segura (DK$4,000, FD $3,000)

OF: Nick Castellanos (DK $4,500), Phillip Ervin (DK $3,200), Trent Grisham (DK $3,100), Yordan Alvarez (FD $4,200), Cody Bellinger, Austin Meadows

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

9/3 MLB DFS Pitching and Prop Picks

5 years ago

written by

This 9/3 MLB DFS slate is going to be one full of excitement for sure. We have a bunch of incredible starting pitchers taking the mound tonight, and the prices that go along with it. The good news is with the Rockies are in Los Angeles getting pummeled by my Dodgers, so we have no Coors Field Game. So I bring you today’s pitching picks.

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On the Defense

Mike Clevingervs. Chicago White Sox

$12,000 FD / $12,200 DK

This 9/3 MLB DFS slate is going to make you face some tough decisions as to who you are going to pay up for. I see no way that Clevinger is not that guy tonight. He is facing a White Sox team striking out 25.8 percent of the time versus RHPs while posting a wRC+ of 70 over the last seven days. Over his last 18 2/3 innings spanning three starts he has 28 strikeouts while only allowing one earned run. This one is easy.

Max Scherzervs. New York Mets

$10,500 FD / $11,700 DK

If you wanted to save a few bucks in cash games and GPPs, while still having that high strikeout upside, then I would use Mad Max. On DK I would rather pay up for Clevinger. Regardless, Scherzer faces a highly unpredictable Mets team falling in the middle of the pack offensively versus RHPs. The good news on this 9/3 MLB DFS slate is that over three starts versus New York this season Mad Max has 28 strikeouts over 20 innings with a 2.70 ERA.

Jack Flahertyvs. San Francisco Giants

$10,000 FD / $10,500 DK

With so many bigger names going on this 9/3 MLB DFS slate I suspect Flaherty will make a great GPP play at his price-point on both sites. The truth here is he gets a fantastic matchup tonight facing a Giants team striking out 23 percent of the time versus RHPs. Also, over the last seven days the Giants have a pathetic wRC+ of 70. With Flaherty having 16 strikeouts over his last 12 innings I see a ton of strikeout upside here at low ownership.

MikeMontgomery vs. Detroit Tigers

$7,300 FD / $4,300 DK

Ok, so someone seriously fell asleep at the wheel at DraftKings for this 9/3 MLB DFS slate. That $4,300 salary is not a typo. With Montgomery facing a Tigers team striking out 27.2 percent of the time (1^st in MLB) with a .292 wOBA (30^th in MLB) versus LHPs, I would be baffled if anyone did not use him tonight. Besides Monty’s bad outing versus Baltimore in his start before last, he has posted four solid starts allowing only three earned runs over 24 1/3 innings with 28 strikeouts. Hello, McFly? Free Square.

On the Attack

This 9/3 MLB DFS slate offers a bevy of scrub pitchers and rookies to attack tonight. In principle I would rather attack a proven loser than a question mark. So these are my top three matchups tonight which includes one really sneaky stack that may be overlooked.

Chi Chi Gonzalez vs. Los AngelesDodgers

Wow, the Dodgers totally lit it up last night, and I see the same thing happening again on this 9/3 MLB DFS slate. Chi Chi Gonzalez has allowed 19 earned runs over his last four starts, and three were on the road dispelling the Coors Field question. With the Dodgers posting a whopping .356 wOBA and wRC+ of 115 versus RHPs, this will be a highly owned stack tonight in cash games and GPP play. Pretty much all of them.

Notable Bats

Will Smith is currently sporting a .472 wOBA versus RHPs with a wRC+ 198.

Matt Beaty is batting .318 over the last seven days with a HR and five RBI. His price is reasonable on both sites and offers you exposure at a discount.

Gavin Lux is the minimum salary on FD and a low $3,500 on DK. With the Dodgers rookies as of late offering huge upside, and Lux going 3-for-5 with a double last night, I am all in here.

Dereck Rodriguez vs. St. LouisCardinals

Rodriguez has allowed 11 earned runs over his last two starts lasting a total of nine innings. Facing a Cardinals team that can be highly explosive is not beneficial to a quality start for a scrub pitcher. With a lot of stacking options tonight on this 9/3 MLB DFS slate I see the ownership here being lower than normal.

Notable Bats

Marcell Ozuna is batting .087 over his last seven days while not launching a ball into orbit in nine games. With a .363 wOBA and wRC+ of 125 versus RHPs this is a trend that will end sooner than later.

Kolten Wong is batting .600 with a home run and seven RBI over the last seven days while posting a .344 wOBA versus RHPs on the season.

Dexter Fowler currently has a .336 wOBA versus RHPs and is seven-for-eight in his last two games.

Mitch Keller vs. Miami Marlins

Now this is a real reach here. The Marlins are deplorable versus both RHPs, and LHPs. But every now and again, they come out and put up some runs. Now this is purely a super risky boom-or-bust GPP play tonight that if it pays off will net you cheap bats with super low ownership. With the Fish facing a flop of a starting pitcher like Keller. who has allowed 15 earned runs over his last three starts facing much better opponents, this is quite viable. Regardless, on this 9/3 MLB DFS slate with a lot of options, I am getting sneaky.

Notable Bats

Garrett Cooper is the best of a crappy lineup versus RHPs posting a .340 wOBA and wRC+ of 113. He generally finds himself batting cleanup, which offers huge upside.

Miguel Rojas returned to action the day before yesterday going 0-for-4. On the season he still has a .317 wOBA versus RHPs while only striking out 13.9 percent of the time. Which is stellar for any Marlin.

Jon Berti has a .317 wOBA versus RHPs this season and offers a bit of upside at what should be low ownership. Especially for the high price on DK of $4,600.

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Monkey Knife Fight Prop Pick

I am going with both the overs here tonight.

Kelly should easily manage that strikeout total with the Marlins striking out 25 percent of the time versus RHPs.

Machado is hard to keep down most nights and tonight should be no different. I cannot see Kelly lasting the whole game which opens the door for late inning offense.

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5 years ago 0 comment

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