The Masters 2024 Field: Your ULTIMATE Player-By-Player Preview DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 6 days ago
The Masters 2024 Field: Your ULTIMATE Player-By-Player Preview DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 6 days ago
Daily Fantasy SportsPGA PGA DFS Picks: Arnold Palmer Invitational jason mezrahi 3 years ago written by jason mezrahi This edition of PGA DFS picks takes us to iconic Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, giving us some key golfers to mix into our winning teams!PGA DFS Course Notes:Strong invitational field of 123 golfersCut: Top 65 and ties after 36 holes2020 winner: Tyrrell Hatton (-4)The course: Bay Hill Club and Lodge (Bay Hill, FL – Dick Wilson design w/Palmer renovations/layout tweaks)Par 72 (7,466 yards)Iconic and difficult venue with lots of water and bunkers in playPlayed as the hardest course on the PGA Tour last yearPressure golf at its most demandingBermuda greens and fairwaysWind could play a factor this week, rain expected SaturdayFocus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, SG: Off the Tee, Proximity 200+, SG: Tee to Green, Par 5 scoring, SG: Putting (Bermuda), Opportunities GainedThe Picks:Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):Rory McIlroy (DK $11,500) – We’re still waiting on the next big win from Rory and while his putting remains a concern, this is as fine a venue as any to take a shot. The track record at Bay Hill is nearly spotless (he’s the 2018 champ and has four straight top six finishes here) and the premium price reflects that. But if we want him on a few of our GPP teams there’s plenty of value golfers we can use to make it happen without it feeling like extreme stars and scrubs.Viktor Hovland (DK $10,600) – Sia loves him this week and the only possible reason Hovland be considered a “risky” golfer in this top tier because it’s just his third appearance at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. While he’s made the cut both times, he posted a T40 and T42, so we’re expecting a big step forward. The difference between that Viktor and the new Viktor is his ability to drain big putts, and he’s second in my model after Sam Burns, who has yet to break through at Bay Hill as well. Hovland should have a better handle on this difficult layout now and I can’t bet against him – he’ll probably be on my short list for single-entry.Tyrrell Hatton (DK $10,000) – Hatton won here last year and is 4-for-4 since 2017, when he finished T4 (with McIlroy). He’s showing up in the top five in my models (tweaked for recent form (24 rounds) and the last 75 rounds and is a solid play in all formats. He’s first in the Proximity 200+ yards stats which we know is a huge factor on this beast of a golf course.Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $9,800) – There’s going to be a lot of sticker shock when folks see the price this week compared to the Genesis, and even last week when he was just $8,500. He’s an excellent play on a tough golf course where he’s had consecutive Top 10 finishes (including a second place finish in 2019). He could get popular and we’ll just have to watch the projected ownership percentages to see how much we’ll need in GPPs.Also consider: Bryson DeChambeau (GPP), Patrick Reed, Sungjae ImMid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):Francesco Molinari ($8,700) – The model isn’t in love with him this week because it includes a stretch of rustiness from the Italian. But Molinari has been on the right track recently and the course record here is brilliant, with a win in 2019 and a couple of top tens before that. He’s an option in smaller tournaments (as Joel pointed out in the breakdown video), but his popularity could make him a fade in larger GPPs.Will Zalatoris (DK $8,600) – There may not be a golf course in the known universe that Zalatoris can’t handle, and despite the fact that this is his Bay Hill debut, the youngster has the chops to flourish where others struggle on this demanding layout. The ball-striking prowess is there, and If the putter can pick up a few strokes on the field, look out.Max Homa (DK $8,500) – Homa finished T24 in his API debut last season, and his game has taken a big step forward since then – with more ball-striking consistency and dominance of Par 5s, where the scoring usually happens. I really like Homa again this week at a fairly priced $8,500 and I’m considering using him in my core GPP builds.Sam Burns (DK $8,400) – Burns will undoubtedly be popular this week, but he’s first on my model given his excellent numbers over the past 24 rounds, and I’ll have a tough time getting away from him in all formats. The talent is there, it’s just a matter of how much he’s learned as he tackles this course for the fourth time after three lukewarm results (T49-T-54-T36).Talor Gooch (DK $7,900) – Gooch may not be ready to contend for a win on Sunday, and neither the model nor his recent form scream “must play” this week. But he’s 2-for-2 at Bay Hill, so we can use him in both cash and GPP if we need a golfer in the $7,500-8,000 range.Cameron Davis (DK $7,900) – Davis would be my favorite play under $8K if we had any kind of course history to go off, because he’s top five in my model and he can get it done off the tee and on the greens when his putter is rolling. The wind could blow this week, but he’s got an earlier time on Thursday.Cameron Tringale (DK $7,700) – Tringale has been good lately but hasn’t played this event since 2016. He’s in my model’s top 20 and has excellent SG:APP and SG Par 5 numbers. He hasn’t missed a cut since the Bermuda Championship in late October, and while he might get popular, he’s good value at this price.Also consider: Jordan Spieth (GPP), Paul Casey, Marc Leishman (GPP), Jason Kokrak, Kevin Na, Lanto Griffin, Charley Hoffman (GPP)Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):Emiliano Grillo (DK $7,400) – Grillo’s ball-striking keeps him in the top 30 of my model, and he’s been trending as a “one week on, next week off” type of golfer with respect to his overall game. We know he struggles on Par 5s and with his putter, but his T11 finish in Puerto Rico (in windy conditions) is a step in the right direction. He hasn’t played here since 2018 but was T7 in 2017. Luke List (DK $7,200) – He missed the cut at the Genesis Invitational and his ownership should remain pretty low this week despite an affinity for the venue (T17-T7-T10 in his last three appearances here) and decent play since the Sony Open. Like Grillo, List can struggle with the putter but he’s No 15 in my model and the SG: OTT and T2G numbers are elite. I’m considering him for my single entry GPPs.Chris Kirk (DK $7,000) – I’m noticing a pattern with this price range: good ball striking, bad putting. Kirk fits that bill with more balance in his overall numbers and a a Top 30 ranking in my mode, just ahead of Doc Redman and Max Homa. If you need some value in building a GPP lineup, that’s not a bad trio to start with in large-field MMEs, as adding Cam Davis leaves you with more than $20K for your next two golfers.Keegan Bradley (DK $7,000) – The recent form isn’t great, but we know that Bradley just tends to show up on the leaderboard out of the blue on venues that play to his strengths. Like the previous three golfers, he has some trouble with the flat stick, but he’s tops in the field in SG:APP over his last 24 rounds and ranks second T2G. If you need a cheap, off-the-wall GPP play to fill out your roster, look no further than the enigmatic Bradley, who’s 5-for-5 here and ranks eighth overall in my model.Matthew NeSmith (DK $6,900) – NeSmith is popping on everybody’s models this week (he’s third overall on mine) and three straight finishes inside the Top 20 – combined with this low price – should make him extremely popular this week. One of the first column I read this week listed him as a “sleeper” pick, but that might not be the best way to describe a guy who’s approach 15% projected ownership. Still – he’s a decent value play this week despite missing the cut at his first Bay Hill appearance in 2020.Harold Varner III (DK $6,800) – He hasn’t performed up to his capabilities on Par 5s recently like Matt Jones (definitely someone to consider this week), but he’s a solid off-the-radar play given his T2G game and high ranking in Opportunities Gained (eight in the field). Varner is in my model’s top 25 and while he’s just 2-for-4 at Bay Hill, I could easily see him in the Top 20 on Sunday.More value golfers to consider: Si Woo Kim, Branden Grace (GPP), Matt Jones, Corey Conners, Henrik Norlander, Zach Johnson, Erik van Rooyen, Brendan Steele (GPP), Sebastian Munoz (GPP), Chez Reavie, Doug Ghim, Lucas GloverLongshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):Cameron Percy (DK $6,500) –There’s no course history to speak of, but Percy is No. 33 in my model and makes for a solid GPP play in this price range. The biggest question marks are his putter and lack of experience at Bay Hill.Kyle Stanley (DK $6,500) – Like Varner, I’m a little concerned about his ability o take advantage of the Par 5s here, as he ranks way down at No. 111 in the field in that category. But the rest of the game is golden, and he’s actually No. 24 in my overall model.Additional punts: Tom Hoge (GPP), Sepp Straka (GPP), Doc Redman (GPP), Mark Hubbard (GPP) 3 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Daily Fantasy SportsPGA PGA DFS Picks: Genesis Invitational jason mezrahi 3 years ago written by jason mezrahi We’re hot on the trail of some lucrative PGA DFS picks, looking for a big payday at the Genesis Invitational and helping you find some winning teams!Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!PGA DFS Course Notes:Reduced, elite invitational field of 120 golfersCut: 36 holes, Top 65 and ties2020 winner: Adam Scott (-11)The course: Riviera Country Club (Pacific Palisades, CA)Par 71, 7,300+ yardsRedesigned by Tom Fazio in 2008Hard-to-hit fairways and greens, but everybody knows what to expect hereKikuyu fairways and rough can make for tough sledding in bad liesOld, quirky design with doglegs and a driveable but difficult 315-yard Par 4 (Hole #10)FAST Poa annua greens – three putts will aboundSunny but cool weather (course will play longer in the mornings) this weekWind expected around 7-10 MPH first two days, then blowing a bit harderRecent (West Coast) form an important factor at RivieraFocus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, SG: Approach, SG: Off the Tee, SG: Around the Green, Bogey Avoidance, Driving DistanceThe Picks:Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):Dustin Johnson (DK $11,300) – DJ has a solid course history (he ran away with the event in 2017 with a -17 score, five strokes clear of Thomas Pieters) and he is the betting favorite with ownership expected around 15-20 percent. One way to approach that in GPPs is by doubling the expected field ownership – a strategy I used last week with Patrick Cantlay.Justin Thomas (DK $10,700) – Thomas won’t be as popular as usual this week in GPPs, but he’s second in my model and he almost won here in 2019 – choking away his shot at victory with a four-over-par 75 in the final round. JT actually missed the cut here last season, so there are some bad vibes he’d like to exorcise. I’ll definitely have shares, but he’s almost a contrarian play this week.Rory McIlroy (DK $10,500) – Rory debuted at the Waste Management at TPC Scottsdale with a somewhat disappointing T13 and has nine consecutive top 25s. The troublesome part is that his last win came in November 2019 at the WGC-HSBC, so he’s a risky play at this price point. Perhaps his consecutive Top 5 finishes at Riviera and ability to both avoid bogeys and gain strokes off the tee (tops in the field in both categories) will allow for a breakthrough win.Jon Rahm (DK $10,400) – Rahmbo drives it well, is a maestro on and around the green, and has been less affected by bad breaks as he matures. Let’s remember – the Spaniard is still just 26 years old, a fact that makes his failure to notch more than one Top 5 (T2 at the ZOZO in October) since September a bit more palatable. What he does have is six straight Top 15 finishes since his T23 at the U.S. Open, and the ability to win at just about any event.Bryson DeChambeau (DK $10,100) – If there’s a course that favors Bryson the Beefy Big Boy, his aggressive lines, bomb-and-gouge style and arm-lock putting style, it’s Riviera – because he’s still pretty decent around the greens and the ultra-fast Poa Annua could favor his ability to get the ball on the right line. He may not be the best cash game play because he’s still pretty volatile and he can let a few bogeys and bad shots get the better of him but taking a stand with him at 30-40% in GPPs could really pay off this week.Xander Schauffele (DK $9,900) – Schauffele (No. 10 on my mixed model) arrives with consecutive T2 finishes at Torrey Pines and TPC Scottsdale and is a California kid playing in an event that favors high-performing West Coast swing golfers. He’s a near lock for cash games and single-entry tournaments and I’ll have plenty of shares (shooting for around 25-30 percent to stay ahead of the field) in large field GPPs.Also consider: Brooks Koepka (GPP), Patrick Cantlay (Cash), Collin MorikawaMid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):Tony Finau (DK $9,300) – Finau could almost be a better cash game play than GPP this week, because he’s a great course fit who has made three straight cuts at Riviera – including a T2 in 2018 – and he usually sucks in the final round. We know he can burn us, but he’s No. 8 on my model because of his strength T2G, only lacking in the short game components and closing the deal on Sundays.Adam Scott (DK $9,000) – The Aussie is a relatively safe play in all formats and I won’t talk you off including his in single entry – but he’s struggled to finish in the Top 10 (his T10 at Torrey Pines is his first since his two-shot victory here last year in a similarly strong field. That win came after a furious comeback that saw his make up eight shots over the last three rounds. Scott likes it here – he has six top 10s in 12 starts and is the tournament’s all-time earnings leader, according to PGATour.com.Bubba Watson (DK $8,900) – Bubba is a course horse and a great narrative this week (go read the recent PGA Tour article about his struggles with mental illness), so I’m grabbing a few shares in GPPs and hopefully coming in around the field number. He’s a “self-taught, highly visual” player (and No. 25 on my model) who has won here twice despite his volatility and tendency to make a few bogeys.Max Homa (DK $8,200) – Homa’s game is really rounding into form (five straight made cuts after his MC at the Masters) and he’s starting to seem more comfortable on the leaderboard – something that could come in handy in this tough field. My model isn’t in love with him (his T2G and ARG game don’t crack the Top 100), but he’s a local resident who finished T7 at Pebble Beach last week and notched a personal-best T5 at Riviera last year, so I’ll be overweight in GPPs and he might make my single-entry GPP when it’s all said and done.Kevin Na (DK $7,900) – Na is the prototypical GPP play this week on a course where he’s had lots of success (T2 in 2018 and T4 in 2017) and a few dismal outcomes (MCs in 2015 and 2020). His Top 5 upside makes him a superb tournament option at this price point, and his 2021 form (a win at the Sony Open in January and a T21 in his last start in a EURO event at the Saudi International, keeps my confidence high enough to roster him in this tough field.Carlos Ortiz (DK $7,800) – I know that his high ownership is going to scare folks off – Joel and Sia both talked about it in the breakdown video, but I still like his chance at a Top 10 here and might just try to outpace the field by locking him into a third of my large-field GPP lineups. Just be conscious of his ownership this week and know that everyone (and their mothers) will be on him.Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $7,600) – Joel brought up my bae Fitzy in the breakdown, and while the wispy Englishman is not popping on my model and he hasn’t played the West Coast swing, there’s plenty to like about his short game and what he could do at a second try at Riviera (T30 in his debut last year). He’s not a long hitter, but he likes super-fast greens and doesn’t make a ton of bogeys – which could keep him in contention if he can avoid the one bad round that sometimes plagues him.Also consider: Jordan Spieth (GPP), Hideki Matsuyama, Joaquin Niemann, Marc Leishman (GPP), Scottie Scheffler (GPP), Cameron Smith, Jason Kokrak, Abraham Ancer, Gary Woodland, Sergio Garcia, Cameron TringaleValue PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):James Hahn (DK $7,500) – Hahn checks a few boxes this week, from his West Coast form to his excellent course history at Riviera and inclusion in the Top 50 of my model. As long as ownership doesn’t eclipse 10%, he’ll make about 1/5 (or more) of my GPP builds.Sam Burns (DK $7,400) – A big hitter with the tee ball game and lots of scoring upside, Burns is a dynamic player who’s fared well on the West Coast and hasn’t missed a cut since a disappointing performance at the Sanderson Farms Championship in early October. If he can scramble a little better than usual this week, he could contend.Luke List (DK $7,300) – Both Sia and I are drawn to List and his dynamic game, and he’s shown an affinity for this venue despite some periodic struggles where good golf seems to somehow allude him. The long-hitting tour veteran has made four of his last five cuts here highlighted by three straight top 30 finishes, and he’s No. 23 on my mixed model – good enough to make a handful of my 20 max lineups and one or two large-field GPPs like the one on DK that pays $300K to the winner.Matt Kuchar (DK $7,200) – His last Top 10 was a T2 at last year’s Genesis Invitational, and the rest of his record here is pretty impressive. But last year’s finish came after a T16 at the Waste Management and T38 at Pebble Beach, so there was some form to consider. I can’t possibly recommend enormous shares of Kuchar this week, but he’s an elite scrambler and he could make for a decent fit in a lineup where you’re rostering DJ, DeChambeau and a bunch of guys around $7K.Kyoung-Hoon Lee (DK $7,100) – K.H. has a great track record at Riviera and is somehow staying under the radar and 10% ownership despite a T2 at the Waste Management Open a couple of weeks ago – a tournament where he made just five bogeys in four days. There’s reasonable Top 10 upside this week despite the affordable price, and he’s got a good shot at making my big-money (for me) single-entry GPP team.Chez Reavie (DK $7,000) – The WinDaily golf writer group text discussion kicked off this week with some Reavie talk, and I was immediately intrigued. This may be the precise moment to jump on him and ride him for a few events, because it’s all about timing with a low-owned Chez – who can have stretches of solid play and is coming off a T16 at Pebble Beach. The season stats are somewhat unimpressive, but he’s an excellent ball striker who’s had two top 10s in his last five tries at Riviera – two of the other three being missed cuts. Last year’s T10 here was on the heels of a T25 finish at the AT&T, and he just cracks the Top 50 of my model this week.Joel Dahmen (DK $6,900) – Sia loves him for one good round, and Joel loves him for his sexy first name, but Dahmen’s game is pretty solid all-round and he’s finished T5 here last year, which was tied for his best finish of 2020 (the other being a T5 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational). I won’t have big shares, but 10 percent of my GPPs will keep me way ahead of the field and allow for some leverage if he puts together three good rounds and posts a Top 25.Michael Thompson (DL $6,700) – Thompson did have a MC at the Waste Management sandwiched between a T5 at the AMEX and a solid-enough T34 at Pebble Beach last week, but he’s a solid value play in a price range that usually doesn’t feature much Top 10 upside – which Thompson flashed at this very event with a T7 in 2019. The model isn’t farting out roses when it comes to Mr. T, but there’s a case to be made for his low-owned keister in GPPs.More value golfers to consider: Cameron Davis (GPP), Lanto Griffin, Adam Hadwin, Talor Gooch (GPP), Wyndham Clark (GPP), Matthew NeSmith, Charles Howell (Cash), Harold Varner III, Brandon Grace (GPP), Vaughn Taylor, Scott PiercyLongshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):Sung Kang (DK $6,500) – Kang has been bad in 2021, but he wasn’t exceptional in 2020 when he posted a T2 at the Genesis Invitational. He’s a super high risk play only suited for 1/20 studs-and-scrubs GPPs, but that’s right around where his ownership will be because of he hasn’t missed a cut here.Brian Stuard (DK $6,400) – Stuard is my favorite play under $6,500, and that’s mainly because he’s 3-for-4 here with a Top 25 last year, his form is decent (made cut in Phoenix and T16 at Pebble Beach last week) and he’s really good around the greens. He’s probably not gaining many strokes off the tee this week, but the T2G numbers are okay and he’s super cheap.Pat Perez (DK $6,400) – Perez has had a rough 2021 but he’s trending up with a T26 last week and there’s plenty of correlation between Pebble and Riviera to weigh that more heavily than the four straight missed cuts in October-November. Conversely, he’s MADE four straight cuts in the Genesis and should fly under the radar this week.Mark Hubbard (DK $6,300) – I think Hubbard is mispriced at just $6,300 this week, because he’s very strong out of the gate (with opening rounds of 63 and 66 in his last two events) and has made seven of his last nine cuts. Perhaps he’s best used in first-round lineups or as a prop bet for low round of day, but I’m going to mix him into my GPPs. He hasn’t played here since 2017 but snuck under the cutline in his only two attempts.Additional punt options: J.B. Holmes (GPP), Jim Furyk, Denny McCarthy (GPP), C.T. Pan, Jimmy Walker (GPP) 3 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Daily Fantasy SportsPGA PGA DFS Picks: Waste Management Phoenix Open jason mezrahi 3 years ago written by jason mezrahi In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and helping you find some winning teams!Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!PGA DFS Course Notes:Field of 132 golfersCut: 36 holes, Top 65 and ties2020 winner: Webb Simpson (-17)The courses: TPC ScottsdalePar 71 – 7,261 yardsAltitude means bombers will bomb even harder, but driving accuracy also importantFans not as much of a factor, going from 200,000+ to about 5KFast Bermuda greens6/6 golfers making the cut should be easier this week with the smaller fieldFocus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, SG: Approach, SG: Off the Tee, Birdie or Better %, Par 4s: 450-500, Par 5s Gained, Opportunities Gained, SG: Around the Green, SG: Putting (Bermuda)The Picks:Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):Jon Rahm (DK $11,200) – Rahm might be ready for a breakthrough at the Waste Management Phoenix Open after four straight performances among the top 16 in which he’s placed higher each time (16-11-10 and a T9 last season). His ball striking and short game make him a threat to win every week, but he and the next guy are 2-1 in my model, respectively, so I won’t be fading Rahmbo at TPC Scottsdale.Justin Thomas (DK $10,800) – JT returns to the business of dominating golf courses with his complete bag of tools – which he’s probably anxious to dust off after a missed cut at Abu Dhabi and an unfortunate and embarrassing foot-in-mouth incident where he uttered a slur after a missed putt. There’s some merit to fading him in GPPs since he’s bound to be highly owned, but I always have a hard time leaving him off my favorite teams. He’s first or second in five of the nine focus stats listed above and will be a staple of my builds in all formats.Webb Simpson (DK $10,100) – The defending champion took last week off after playing both tournaments in Hawaii (T17 at Sentry TOC and T4 at the Sony Open), and he’s made 7/7 cuts this year. He’s not a long hitter, so he’ll have to deploy a different strategy than the bombers on the long par 4s and par 5s, but he’s won here before and can do it again.Daniel Berger (DK $9,600) – Berger works best in cash games where you’re fading the $10K and up range and looking for more balance, especially since he’s making cuts with such consistency and flashing top 10 upside. He’s not my favorite to win, but he’s finished in the top 25 in four straight events and in the 25-30 range in the previous two. Berger isn’t a complicated golfer to handicap – he just has a little trouble winning (three career, his last at the 2020 Charles Schwab).Also consider: Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy (GPP), Hideki MatsuyamaMid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):Scottie Scheffler (DK $9,100) – I was going to start off this tier with Sungjae Im, but I like Scheffler’s upside in large-field GPPs a bit more and would prefer Im in cash games in the $9,000-$9,500 price range. Scheffler didn’t do well in his debut here last season, but if he can get hot with the putter and make the cut, there’s no telling what he can pull off on Sunday. Probably not a staple of my single-entry GPP, but just the kind of guy I want to mix up my small-stakes, multi-entry GPP tickets.Will Zalatoris (DK $9,000) – There’s no course history to examine here, but it’s not an overly complex setup tee to green – so the talented Zalatoris is definitely in play here, especially in GPPs where folks could shay away from the price tag and the dearth of experience at TPC Scottsdale. There’s really not a venue that can throw off Willie Z, so I’m buying with the inherent risk of his short game lacking the umph to carry him onto the leaderboard.Bubba Watson (DK $8,500) – Bubba is a course horse (T3 and T4 in last two years here) and a guy who thrives on fast greens. His poor showing at the Masters and missed cut last week at the Farmers doesn’t instill confidence, but he’s No. 17 on my model and is worth a look in GPPs.Billy Horschel (DK $8,400) – If we throw out Horschel’s MC last week, there’s a lot to like about his recent play. He’s also 5-for-5 here with a Top 10 last season, and while he’s not necessarily popping (No. 49 overall) on my model this week, he’s viable in those balanced cash builds we’ve discussed – and even a few tournaments.Gary Woodland (DK $8,300) – Like Watson, Gary is a golfer who’s best days in the sport may be behind him – but there’s still plenty to like about the course fit and track record: he’s four-for-his-last-five here and won the event in 2018. If he can strike it well and seize on his opportunities this week, he might make for a solid GPP play in “balanced” builds.Russell Henley (DK $8,200) – Henley seems to alternate missed cuts with Top 20 finishes at TPC Scottsdale, as well as MCs with Top 30s in his recent play. When I take that pattern and add in that he’s on the beat for the better of those two scenarios this year – and this week – the fact that he’s No. 12 in my model (and No.1 in both SG: BS and SG: APP) gets me excited. He’s my favorite play for GPPs in the $8,000 to $8,500 range, and I dare say is viable in both single-entry and cash.Sam Burns (DK $7,700) – Burns is the sub-$8K player who’s “popping” the most on my models (No. 6 overall) and while he played well last week, the Sunday 75 kept him from a Top 10 finish. He’s 0-for-2 here but If he can turn it around with the putter this week – and he’s normally pretty solid with the flat stick but lost almost 3 shots to the field last week – he could make for a solid under-the-radar play in all formats.Matt Kuchar (DK $7,700) – Kuchar loves the Waste Management Open (4-for-4 with three top 10s and a T16 in his last four tries) and the price is significantly reduced since his game has taken a turn for the worse since COVID-19. Maybe this event will bring up some good memories.Also consider: Sungjae Im (cash), Harris English (GPP), Ryan Palmer (GPP), Louis Oosthuizen, Rickie Fowler (GPP), Corey Conners, Max Homa, Carlos Ortiz, Talor Gooch (GPP)Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):Henrik Norlander (DK $7,500) – Norlander’s play can be wildly inconsistent week-to-week, but he’s playing well right now (T12 at the AMEX and T2 last week at Torrey Pines) and is tops in the field playing Par 4s (450-500). A first-timer in Phoenix, Norlander makes sense as a GPP play – but I’d steer clear in cash.Brendan Steele (DK $7,400) – He’s No. 35 on my model this week with no glaring deficiencies other than a relatively weak putter. Steele has fared well here before (third place in 2018) but missed the cut in the last two tries. He’s a good bet for a bounceback and could be a viable cash game target at this price.Charley Hoffman (DK $7,000) – I normally don’t play Hoffman but this might be the week I jump aboard. The model likes him (No. 35 overall) and he’s perfect in his last five tries here with three finishes among the top 26 golfers.Harold Varner III (DK $6,700) – Varner is always a bit risky but he had Top 10 upside at this venue and is an excellent ball striker who’s popping in my model. Like many good ball strikers who haven’t won, his struggles are usually on the greens, so that’ll be something to watch this week.Harry Higgs (DK $6,700) – Higgs is the opposite of Varner (not a great ball striker, better on and around the greens), but priced similarly because he’s a damn good putter. If you’re down to under $7K for your last piece, you could pivot between him and HV3.Mark Hubbard (DK $6,600) – I like playing Hubbard in GPPs, and he’s actually 3-for-3 at the Waste Management Open – a promising stat for a guy priced this low. Nothing in his recent play is very promising, but the T9 finish last year points to an affinity for TPC Scottsdale and the low price means he could work for top heavy lineups that need some value plays.Denny McCarthy (DK $6,600) – McCarthy is tops in the field for SG:P and his flat stick keeps him in the conversation at most venues. This week, the elevation could help with his distance (he does play Par 5s well) and the fact that he’s made the cut in two tries here and should be low owned means he’s worth a look in GPPs.More value golfers to consider: Zach Johnson, Emiliano Grillo (GPP), Byeong Hun An (GPP), John Huh, Luke List (GPP), Sebastian Munoz, Erik Van Rooyen, James HahnLongshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):Tom Hoge (DK $6,500) – Hoge has missed three straight cuts, but he’s improved with each appearance at this tournament, culminating with a T25 last year. There aren’t any sure things at $6,500 and under, but I’ll be overweight on last week’s secret weapon after his disappointing performances at the AMEX and Farmers.Padraig Harrington (DK $6,200) – Harrington has made the cut in four straight events and is near the minimum price on DK. His game around the greens is still solid, and while he’s a longshot DFS play, he’s easy to root for. Additional punt options: Brian Stuard, Keith Mitchell (GPP), Hudson Swafford 3 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Daily Fantasy SportsPGA PGA DFS Picks: Farmers Insurance Open jason mezrahi 3 years ago written by jason mezrahi In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Farmers Insurance open and helping you find some winning teams!Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!PGA DFS Course Notes:Strong, full field of 152 golfersCut: 36 holes, Top 65 and ties2020 winner: Marc Leishman (-15)The courses: Torrey Pines North (one of first two rounds) & South (three rounds of four)Both Par 72 (North: 7,258 South: 7,698 yards)Coastal courses so wind/elements are a factorSouth course is tougher, and a long driver helpsHarder-to-hit greensNorth: Bentgrass greens; South: Poa Annua greensFocus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, Birdie or Better %, Driving Distance, SG: Putting, SG: Off the Tee, SG: Around the Green, Driving Distance, Bogey Avoidance, Par 4s: 450-500The Picks:Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):Jon Rahm (DK $11,300) – Rahm’s sore back kept him out of the AMEX last week, but that’s about the only thing keeping me from clicking his name as a lock in all my lineups. He’s got a win (2017) along with a couple top five finishes here, has the all-around game to win again, and he’s second on my mixed model behind only Tony Finau. I couldn’t dissuade anyone from even going lock button, 100-percent Rahm, and he’ll be the core of my single-entry lineups.Rory McIlroy (DK $11,000) – Initial ownership projections have McIlroy coming in under Rahm and Finau, but he’s priced with them and has top five finishes in both his visits. Sia likes him and will talk more about it in his livestream tonight, and McIlroy is tops in three very important focus stat categories: SG:APP, BoB% and Bogey Avoidance. Rory occasionally has decent missed cut equity compared to the rest of the big names, but these courses and the possibility of some difficult conditions should play to his strengths.Tony Finau (DK $10,700) – Finau is coming off a solo fourth last week (-19, four strokes behind the winner) and his track record here is solid, with five straight top 20s (but only one top five). Because he’s priced up so high and always struggles to actually win golf tournaments, he might be best used in cash. Finau could get really chalky in GPPs, so it might be a good time to fade him over the two guys above.Xander Schauffele (DK $10,400) – Schauffele’s best pro finish here (his home course in high school, ironically) is a T25 in 2018 (surrounded by a bunch of missed cuts), but there’s nothing in the mixed model to suggest he shouldn’t play well here – aside from a minor dip when it comes to SG:P, where he’s 68th in the field. His excuse is that he’s been “consistently” sick when it’s time to tee it up at Torrey Pines, but with a COVID-19 diagnosis and recovery out of the way, maybe he’s finally ready to play well here.Also consider: Patrick Reed, Harris English (GPP)Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):Matthew Wolff (DK $9,100) – Wolff is the type of fearless golfing talent who could fare quite well at Torrey Pines with his length, and his T21 in last year’s debut run speaks to his ability to adjust well to a challenge. The biggest concern is how Wolff will rebound if he’s missing the Poa Annua greens (he’s No. 131 in the filed in SG:ARG). He’s definitely got the ball-striking and ability to thrive on this surface – it’s just a matter of avoiding some bad bounces and keeping his head on straight.Marc Leishman (DK $8.700) – The form is good (T4 at the Sony Open) and he’s the defending champion at Torrey Pines – so he’ll be in plenty of my builds. I’m more than a little concerned about rostering a chalky Marc Leishman, but he’s projected closer to 10 percent, which means I could stomach using him in about 1/5 GPPs and even a low-cost single-entry.Jason Day (DK $8,600) – Day hasn’t played since a T12 at the RSM Classic in mid-November, but that could be a good thing – as his troublesome back may have benefited from the layoff. If we get word that Day (No. 8 in my mixed model) is looking healthy in the practice rounds, I’ve got no problem using him in GPPs and hoping his ownership stays down.Ryan Palmer (DK $8,400) – Palmer is 3/3 with a T2 here during the 2017-18 season, and he hasn’t missed a cut since the U.S. Open. The form is decent and he’s No. 7 in my model this week. Best deployed in cash games, he might get chalky in tournaments – so I’ll either be all-in (single entry lock and 50 percent ownership in GPPs) or trying to come in around the field in MMEs.Adam Scott (DK $8,300) – Scott is another darling of my model this week, and he’s priced very affordably for a man who finished solo second in the 2019 Farmers (Justin Rose was -21, two strokes better than Scott’s -19). The tour veteran can struggle with has flatstick, but a solid ball-striking veteran like Accurate Adam can get hot enough knocking down flagsticks as that it doesn’t matter.Cameron Champ (DK $7,900) – I was all over him last week, but once an unlucky flagstick strike that caromed back into the water turned a birdie into a quadruple bogey, his confidence was shot. Back on a course where his gargantuan length off the tee could be a huge advantage, I’m jumping back aboard in GPPs – but he’s way too risky for cash.Talor Gooch (DK $7,600) –Gooch actually finished T3 in the aforementioned 2019 Farmers and he’s popping on my models (No. 11 overall). A T21 last week and a couple Top 5s since October help contribute to my interest in this straight hitter who fares ell in many of the focus stat categories.Also consider: Viktor Hovland, Hideki Matsuyama (GPP), Si Woo Kim (cash), Cameron Smith, Billy Horschel (GPP), Cameron Davis, Gary Woodland, Francesco Molinari (GPP), Corey Conners, Sam BurnsValue PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):Carlos Ortiz (DK $7,500) – This would be a form play, as Ortiz has missed two straight cuts here and is only No. 67 on my model. Sia is with me on the inherent risk, but we both like him for his upside.Charles Howell (DK $7,500) – A cash game staple this week, Howell has a solid Torrey Pines resume and is a fine play in all formats, as hi ownership may stay low coming off a MC at the AMEX.Max Homa (DK $7,400) – Homa seems to be shaping up since a rough fall schedule, he finished T9 here last season, and he’s No. 38 overall in my model. Too risky for cash but worth a look in GPPs.Doug Ghim (DK $7,200) – Ghim is a WinDaily favorite and one of the best single-round performers on tour. A T20 here in 2019 and his T5 last week make me interested in large-field GPPs – so hopefully his ownership stays low.John Huh (DK $7,000) – Consistently good at this venue, Huh has three top 25 finishes over his past three months (including a top 15) and he’s been gaining strokes on the field at an alarming rate (5.7) over his last five tournaments. The price is just too low.Brandt Snedeker ($7,000) – Stay away in cash and single-entry, but keep an eye on Snedeker for his performance at this venue and ability to putt and scramble himself onto the leaderboard. Sneds has missed three straight cuts but he’s 5-for-5 here since 2016.Harry Higgs (DK $6,900) – Higgs finished T9 in 2020 at Torrey Pines and his ownership should stay around 5% or lower this week. He’s a longshot to win or even finish in the Top 10 again, but there is some upside here in this price range.Adam Schenk (DK $6,700) – He’s not the best ball striker in the field and there are plenty of obstacle to him finishing in the Top 15, but he made the cut here in 2019 after a rocky debut the previous year and he crept into the Top 40 of my model. With a 1-2% projected ownership, I’m comfortable using him in one or two of my 20 max entry GPPs.More value golfers to consider: Alex Noren (GPP), Lucas Glover, Tom Hoge (GPP), Luke List, Charl Schwartzel (GPP), Richy Werenski (GPP)Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):Matthew NeSmith (DK $6,500) – This is not the land of sure things, so do not hit the lock button with NeSmith – who made the cut here last year in his debut and finished T30. For that, he’s a 1/20 option in large field GPPs. Tyler McCumber (DK $6,400) – McCumber is actually No. 20 in my model, which was a pleasant surprise in looking for low-cost options in this range. He made the cut last week and like NeSmith, played well in his debut at Torrey Pines last year, finishing T21 with Will Gordon. Will Gordon (DK $6,300) – Well, what do you know? The long-hitting Gordon is $100 cheaper than McCumber but doesn’t get any love from my model this week (No. 105 overall). If I play McCumber in 2/20 GPPs, I’ll use Gordon in one.Additional punt options: Robbie Shelton, J.J. Spaun, Beau Hossler (GPP) 3 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Daily Fantasy SportsPGA PGA DFS Picks: Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship jason mezrahi 4 years ago written by jason mezrahi In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship and giving you the picks to do it!Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!PGA DFS Course Notes:Full but weak field of 154 GolfersCut: Top 65 and tiesDefending Champ: Graeme McDowell (-18)The course: Corales Puntacana Resort & Club (Punta Cana, DR)Par 72: 7,650 yardsSmaller Paspalum greens similar to Florida swingSeaside links-style course with inland front nine, easy-to-hit fairwaysWind can play a huge factorFour long par 5sFocus Stat Categories: Birdie or Better %, Strokes Gained: Approach, SG: OTT, SG: Putting (Bermuda), GIRI’m going to keep the blurbs brief and to the point. I’ve plugged in some data into the mixed models and there’s a few GPP plays that really stand out this week.The Picks:Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):Will Zalatoris (DK $10,900) – He had a great week at the U.S. Open and was T6 behind some amazing golfers. Playing on a sponsor’s exemption this week, Zalatoris is my pick to win.Corey Connors (DK $10,600) – The Canadian T2G sensation hits greens and ranks second and third in SG: OTT and SG: APP, respectively. He’s a great bet for a Top 15 even though he missed the cut here last year, but he’ll have to make some putts.Mackenzie Hughes (DK $10,300) – Another Canadian at the opposite end of the SG stat spectrum, Hughes has a great short game and sometimes fails OTT and with his approaches. He finished second here last year but I’d use him as a GPP play only.Sam Burns (DK $10,100) – There will be scoring opportunities for this solid ball striker, and he’ll be going for the Par 5s in two. He finished 12th here last year and we could see improvement on that this season.Adam Long (DK $9,900) – He shows up near the top of my model (fifth overall) and his only flaw is his weak tee game. I’m intrigued but a little bit scared.Also consider: Denny McCarthy (GPP), Emiliano Grillo, Charles Howell IIIMid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):Sepp Straka (DK $9,300) – Fourth overall in my model but first in my heart, I’m not passing up a chance to snag a low-owned Straka in a spot where he could notch his first PGA Tour win.Pat Perez (DK $9,100) – Perez looks like a great fit for the course in the mixed model, and he’s usually pretty solid on the Florida swing, which correlates well here.Luke List (DK $8,700) – List’s last really solid performance was a T10 at the Memorial, and he’s playing the course for the first time. But he’s a beast off the tee and can hit greens.Patrick Rodgers (DK $8,000) – Nobody’s picking him to win, but I love the short game and SG: OTT stats, so I’m buying for his upside in GPPs.Brice Garnett (DK $7,900) – Garnett loves the venue, notching a wire-to-wire win here in 2018, and will be happy to get back to a course that fits his style. He’ll likely be popular.Jhonattan Vegas (DK $7,700) – Vegas showed up in my model and finished T26 at Puntacana Resort last year. We can use the Venezuelan in any format.Also consider: Thomas Detry, Kristoffer Ventura, Henrik Norlander, Adam Schenk, Kyle Styanley (GPP), Graeme McDowell, James HahnValue PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):Matthew NeSmith (DK $7,400) – The price seems a bit high considering his poor play recently, but the model loves him and e could get some big-time leverage in GPPs if he notches a top 15.Peter Uihlein (DK $7,100) – This isn’t my favorite price range, but I’m willing to take a shot with Uihlein, who’s stat profile looks very similar to last year’s winner, Graeme McDowell.Patton Kizzire (DK $7,000) – Kizzire missed the cut at the Safeway but the long-but-inaccurate hitter could find refuge in the course’s wide fairways. He’s my favorite play at $7K or less.More value golfers to consider: Beau Hossler, Vaughn Taylor, Hudson Swafford, Chase SeifertLongshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):Graham DeLaet (DK $6,300) – He’s showing up at the top of my models and why that’s hard to explain, it’s going to get him in a few of my scrubs and studs GPP builds.Jamie Lovemark (DK $6,300) – I’m interested only because of his ability to get hot with the putter and roll in a bunch of birdies. Another player who should benefit from the wider fairways and long Par 5s.Additional punts: Roberto Diaz, Shawn Stefani (GPP), Sebastian Cappelen, Dominic Bozzelli 4 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Daily Fantasy SportsPGA PGA DFS Picks: Safeway Open jason mezrahi 4 years ago written by jason mezrahi In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Safeway Open, helping you find some winning teams in GPPs!Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!PGA DFS Course Notes:First event of new “season”156 players in fieldCut: Top 65 and ties after 36 holesThe course: North Course at Silverado Resort and Spa (Napa, CA)Par 72: 7,203 yards – Johnny Miller designPoa Annua GreensLots of slopes and bunkers, Redwood treesFormerly the Frys.com OpenDefending champion: Cameron Champ (-17)Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach & Off the Tee, Par 4s Gained (400-450), Driving Distance, Birdie or Better%The Picks:Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):Si Woo Kim (DK $10,800) – It’s a little curious to see Kim as the most expensive golfer in the field, especially since he’s lacking any real success at this venue, but he has been playing well lately (T13 at the PGA Championship and T3 at the Wyndham). I’m not sure I’ll be looking his way in large-field GPPs, but he’s 9-for-9 with four top 20s and makes for a cash game play if you’re seeking a cutmaker with some decent form.Phil Mickelson (DK 10,600) – While it may be hilarious to see a Champions Tour golfer here in the top pricing tier, Phil is the second most expensive golfer and betting favorite for a reason: He loves California and he has some decent course history here. The wind is manageable this week and Phil can scramble if he misses the fairways and greens, making him a decent GPP play.Brendan Steele (DK $10,000) – He won here in both 2016 and 2017, so he’ll be popular. While Steele struggled here in his last two appearances at the North Course, he did make the cut both times and is playing well (7-for-7 with three top 25s) since his poor showing at the Charles Schwab.Sergio Garcia (DK $9,900) – I love the way Sergio still hits it off the tee and there’s still plenty of talent left in his tank. He putts extremely well on poa, so there’s not as much risk of a meltdown around the greens, and he’s got zero course history – the formula for a smashing GPP play.Emiliano Grillo (DK $9,700) – For all the grief we give Grillo for his poor performance on the greens, he’s done better lately and can really string together some birdies if he’s competent with the flat stick. He’s also made four out of his last five cuts here and even won the event in 2015.Also consider: Shane Lowry, Chez Reavie (cash), Joel Dahmen (GPP)Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):Brandt Snedeker (DK $9,300) – The best worst ball striker in the world, Sneds takes his circus show of missed cuts to the West Coast, and he even gets to putt on his preferred surface. He’s a fan of this venue, with 4-for-4 made cut and some impressive showings, including a playoff loss in 2018 and a pair of T17s. If his back is up to it, he show be okay this week.Harold Varner (DK 9,100) – Varner is a happy-go-lucky PGA grinder who’s had a nice run in 2020, boasting some excellent stats along the way: 15th on TOUR in GIR, eighth in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. He’s also 5-for-5 with three top 20s at the North Course and will be a staple on my GPP lineups.Cam Davis (DK 8,900) – The talented Australian heads back to the North Course for his third appearance at Silverado – where he posted a T17 in his debut in 2018. I can’t speak to his ability to win here, but he’s probably a solid cash game play (4-for-5 with two top 20s since the 3M).Bud Cauley (DK 8,600) – I’d steer clear in cash games, but Cauley is just the type of golfer I’m looking for in GPPs. He’s made four straight cuts here (including a seventh-place finish in 2017) and the long odds (50-1) mean his ownership won’t get too high.Mark Hubbard (DK 8,100) – Hubbard has made some leaderboard appearances in 2020 and actually finished among the Top 50 in the FedExCup – a run that included a T13 at this venue in 2019. We know Hubbard can go low, and this is one place where his skills should translate.Charl Schwartzel (DK $7,800) – The South Africanhasn’t played here since his 2015 debut, when he finished tied for sixth place. The odds of him winning aren’t great (60-1), but his health and form indicate he’s perfectly capable of a Top 10 finish and paying off his sub-$8K salary.Jim Furyk (DK $7,700) – Another “senior” who still makes appearance son the regular tour, I’ll never count out Furyk, who finished T17 here last season with the likes of Snedeker and Varner, among others. What he lacks in driving distance he makes up for in excellent touch around the greens and solid approaches with his irons.Also consider: Kevin Streelman, Sam Burns, Henrik Norlander, Will Gordon (GPP), Lucas Glover, Luke List, Talor GoochValue PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):Cameron Tringale DK $7,500) – A feast-or-famine GPP player who usually miss the cut or finishes among the Top 30, Tringale has been relatively consistent at this venue, with 4-out-of-5 made cut and three straight finished in the Top 50. He could be ready for a breakthrough here, and nobody will be on him.Maverick McNealy (DK $7,300) – I’ve seen plenty ofdiscussion about McNealy’s roots in Napa, as the Stanford alum actually made his pro PGA tour debut at Silverado in 2017. He’s made the cut each time here without a significant finish, but his form has been decent and he’s capable of a Top 10 finish – good enough for us at this price point.Harry Higgs (DK $7,200) – He’s a great guy and he finished with a Top 25 in his Safeway debut last season, so I still like Higgs for GPPs even if he’s not the best SG: APP golfer around. His odds to win are 80-1, which is kind of intriguing when you consider his SG: OTT numbers (35th on tour) and recent T11 (-14) at the Northern Trust.Troy Merritt (DK $7,100) – He finished second to Richy Wrenski at the Barracuda Championship in nearby Truckee, CA and boasts some of the best Driving Acurcy numbers on tour. His elite putting numbers and impressive course history (T15 in 2016 & T4 in 2018) mean he’ll be on plenty of my GPP lineups.Kristoffer Ventura (DK $7,000) – As a rookie in 2019-20, he ranked fourth in Strokes Gained: Putting and led in average distance of putts made. Played his best out of the break with five top 25s across two tours.Cameron Percy (DK $6,600) – He could be the best option under $7K considering his T7 finish here in 2019, and his game (along with almost all the Camerons, really) seems to fit this course.Also consider: Charley Hoffman (GPP) Sepp Straka (GPP), Brice Garnett, Xinjun Zhang (GPP), J.B. Holmes (GPP) Chesson HadleyLongshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):Zac Blair (DK $6,400) – The options in this range are pretty awful, with almost no success among the golfers remaining, but Blair finished tied for 4th place here last year with Charles Howell III and Justin Thomas, so he’s at least capable of a Top 20. But please don’t go overboard on a guy who’s only made about half of the cuts in the past season, though.Additional GPP punts: Aaron Baddeley, Brian Gay, Hank Lebioda 4 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Daily Fantasy SportsPGA PGA DFS Picks: 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities jason mezrahi 4 years ago written by jason mezrahi In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the 3M Open and helping you find some winning teams!PGA DFS pricing is elevated for everybody this week with such aweak field, but we’ve got a bunch of viable picks for you to build a winner.Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats, article and more!Don’t forget to hop into the Win Daily Sports Expert Chat to talk one on one with our DFS and Betting Pros and check their articles out on the site!PGA DFS Course Notes:Weak but full tournament field of 156 golfersOnly second time playing this PGA event, so not much course history36-hole Cut: Top 65 and ties play the weekendThe course: TPC Twin Cities (Minneapolis)7,441 yards, Par 71 – Arnold Palmer/Tom Lehman design/consultBentgrass GreensCourse features 27 water hazards and 72 sand traps2019 3M Open shares correlation with 2020 Rocket MortgageBall-striker’s courseDefending champ: Matthew Wolff (-21)Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach; SG: Ball Striking, SG: Off the Tee; Eagles Gained, Par 4s Gained (450-500), Par 5s Gained (550-600), Birdie or Better %The Picks:Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):Tony Finau (DK $10,900) – It’s hard to say how he’ll react to Saturday’s collapse and subsequent Sunday struggles at Jack’s place, but this course sets up well for him with its wider-than-normal fairways and advantage to better drivers. He’ll certainly be hitting more greens this week at a course where he fared well in 2019.Tommy Fleetwood (DK $10,500) – Fleetwood has as much upside as the top three (more expensive) golfers and ownership shouldn’t be through the roof considering he’s breaking the seal after the layoff. I’ll be overweight in GPPs and he’s my favorite golfer in this price range.Paul Casey (DK 10,100) – Casey’s price has gone up over $2K since last week, when he missed the cut, so we might see the masses afraid to plug him in. He’s floating to the top of the models and makes sense in all formats – just keep an eye on ownership.Bubba Watson (DK $9,900) – The WinDaily writers’ group text has been replete with comment’s about Bubba’s viability at this venue, and I’m on board for a few GPPs, where his last couple tournament performances (and an elevated price) could scare off the faint of heart.Matthew Wolff (DK $9,700) – The man with one of the best – and coolest-looking – moves in golf is the defending champion, and I imagine could see massive chalk. But I can’t find a good reason to fade him at this point. Wolff played well last week in a much tougher test and seems like a darn good Top 10 bet with obvious winning upside. One of the best bets to repeat at a golf tournament in quite a while.Also consider: Dustin Johnson(GPP only)Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):Lucas Glover (DK $9,400) – Glover has been steadily rising as a more and more dependable DFS play in the past month or so, and he’s now tasked with justifying the highest price tag he’ll probably see this year. His 3M resume includes a course record-tying 62 in last year’s tournament and a T7 finish.Harris English (DK $9,000) – A cash game staple and solid value given his slew of Top 20s this year, English might get popular. He was cleared to play after a positive COVID test and finished T13 at the Memorial.Erik van Rooyen (DK $8,800) – Van Rooyen seems to be the definition of the feast-or-famine GPP play given his tendency to Top 20 or MC, but I’ll take a shot this week on a course where his skill set seems to match the venue.Doc Redman (DK $8,700) – Redman hits greens and ranks well in both SG: APP and SG: OTT. With three top 25s in his last four starts (MC last week), he’s a fine play in all formats.Henrik Norlander (DK $8,600) – The price has jumped over $2K this weekafter I featured him in my plays at $6,500 or under, but a course geared toward ball strikers, there’s no reason to get off him and his red-hot putter.Sepp Straka (DK $7,900) – Straka struggled on Saturday and Sunday at the Memorial but will enjoy the scoring opportunities that will inevitably come at TPC Twin Cities. He’s a “birdies-in-bunches” type of player who does well off the tee.Scott Stallings (DK $7,600) – Stallings is modestly priced at $7,600 and for a guy who’s 12 for 16 on the season and should play all four rounds with Top 15 upside, that’s not terrible. He checks a whole bunch of boxes and I’ll have shares in all formats.Also consider: Sam Burns, Luke List,Patrick Rodgers, Max Homa, Jhonattan Vegas, Will Gordon, Dylan FrittelliValue PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):Troy Merritt (DK $7,400) – The T8 at the Rocket Mortgage sticks out as a selling point (along with solid overall play this season), and he finished T7 at the 3M last year. I’m more than comfortable rostering him in all formats given his Top 10 upside.Charles Howell III (DK $7,400) – There’s cause for concerngiven his current form, considering his last top 15 came in January well before the layoff. But CH3 is an obvious course horse who checks most of the boxes this week and is available at a significant discount.Ricky Werenski (DK $7,400) – Werenski is popping on the models and made the cut in last year’s event. He probably lacks winning upside but seems to be playing consistent golf these days.Kristoffer Ventura (DK $7,300) – I’m once again looking at the Rocket Mortgage finishers, and Ventura posted a T21 in what was a pretty steady week. The Norwegian Korn Ferry regular could surprise some folks this week in a relatively weak field.Cameron Tringale (DK $7,200) – Tringale is one of my GPP specials this week, and he’s decent risk-reward bet for a Top 25 given his most recent finishes.Emiliano Grillo (DK $7,100) – You know the story on Grillo – the putter just needs to be better than terrible for him to make the cut, and decent-to-good for him to make a run at the Top 10.Brice Garnett (DK $6,900) – Garnett is another golfer that either shows up to play or bombs out, with three MCs and three Top 20s in his last six tournaments.More value golfers forGPPs: Charley Hoffman, Wyndham Clark (WD risk, back), Tom Hoge, Aaron Wise,Talor Gooch, Scott Piercy, Adam Schenk, Jason Dufner, Harry HiggsLongshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):Cameron Percy (DK $6,500) – If the rib injury isn’t a problem, Percy could give us a memorable DFS week at such a low price.J.J. Spaun (DK $6,500) – Spaun’s ability to make birdies sets him apart from some of the other chumps in the $6-7K range. Far from a DFS lock, I’ll sprinkle him into GPPs.Seamus Power (DK $6,500) – Another birdie-maker who can crank it out there, Power finished T12 at the Rocket Mortgage and is among my favorite plays in this value range.Additionalpunts: Roger Sloan, JoshTeator, Derek Ernst, Arjun Atwal, Angus Flanagan 4 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Daily Fantasy SportsPGA PGA DFS Picks: The Honda Classic at PGA National jason mezrahi 4 years ago written by jason mezrahi In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Honda Classic and helping you find some winning teams!Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info,24/7 expert chats and more!PGA DFS Course Notes:The first stop on Florida SwingFull tournament field of 144 golfers36-hole Cut: Top 65 and ties play the weekendThe course: PGA National (Palm Beach Gardens)7,125 yards, Par 70 – Tom Fazio design w/multiple Jack Nicklaus renovationsBermuda greens (average speed) and fairwaysLots of water (in play on 15 holes), normally features high wind speeds (up to 15-20 MPH)Tough layout (15-17 most difficult stretch known as “Bear Trap”Defending champ: Keith Mitchell (2019)Focus Stat Categories: GIR; Bogey Avoidance; Strokes Gained: Approach; SG: Around the Green; SG: Ball Striking, Scrambling; Par 5 scoring; Par 4 efficiency (400-450), Proximity (150-200)The Picks:Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,000 and up):Rickie Fowler (DK $10,800, FD $11,700) – Rickie needs to avoid the big number this week, and that probably comes down to his ball-striking – a strength in the past that’s seen diminishing effectiveness thus far in 2020. He’s one of the world’s best putters and he’s a former winner here (2017) who seems to fare well on Florida tracks. Gary Woodland (DK $10,300, FD$11,300) – Woodlandplayed well last week and now returns home to Florida and his favorite surface –Bermuda. He’s a solid bet to win at 20-1 odds and makes lots of sense for GPPssince he’s only had one Top 5 finish here in four tries. I’ll be starting a fewstars/scrubs teams with Fowler and Woodland.Justin Rose (DK $9,900, FD $11,400) – The Englishman plays well in wind but has limited experience here. I’m not expecting much ownership but digging deeper shows that he checks the boxes here with his Strokes Gained stats and has had a week to clear his head after a woeful T56 at the Genesis.Billy Horschel (DK $9,200, FD $10,900) – Horschel has two MCs here in his last five appearances, which could help keep his ownership down. He’s a grinder who loves Bermuda and the data shows favorable results in his SG categories – which are a huge part of contending here. Like Fowler, he needs to avoid the big number and navigate the Bear Trap without making an “other.”Also consider: Tommy Fleetwood,Viktor Hovland, Sungjae Im, Shane LowryMid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $8,900):Byeong Hun An (DK $8,800, FD $10,500) – An’s ball-striking is his biggest strength, and the Bermuda surfaces are a much better fit for him than poa annua. His fate resides in how he performs with the flat stick – which has dictated his previous finishes (fifth in 2018, T36 in 2019). My ownership will be way ahead of the field, even if he gets chalky.Joaquin Niemann (DK $8,700, FD $10,100) – Niemann doesn’t have much course history aside from a tepid T59 finish here last season, but he’s a talented ball-striker who could be this week’s Erik Van Rooyen.Charl Schwartzel (DK $8,100, FD $9,300) – Schwartzel loves to play tough golf courses, and he’s got a Green Jacket to show for it. He’s got a solid track record at PGA National and his overall game has been rounding into form.Emiliano Grillo (DK $8,000, FD $10,000) – He’s coming off a T3 at the Puerto Rico Open, and conditions there last week should resemble what the golfers are dealing with in Florida a lot more than the West Coast Swing.Luke List (DK $8,000, FD $9,600) – We’ve talked about some of the ups and downs to List’s career before, and while he’s not cheap this week, price is just one of the factors that could keep his GPP ownership low – the other being an MC here in 2019 after (T10-T52-2 in 2016-2018).Wyndham Clark (DK $7,600, FD $9,600) – Clark ranks well in Bogey Avoidance and checks most of the boxes this week coming off three straight made cuts. He’s one of my favorite plays under $8K and I’ll be flirting with 50% ownership in GPPs.Also consider: Daniel Berger, J.T.Poston, Ian Poulter, Ryan Palmer, Harris English, Russell Knox, Jhonattan VegasValue PGA DFS (DK $7,500 and under):Russell Henley (DK $7,400, FD $8,800) – Henley’s played better here every year following his MC in 2016 (he won here in 2014) and is coming off a T17 at the Genesis. He’s a decent wind player and has also won at the Sony Open, which is another shorter track that sees its share of wind. Henley is a huge risk but could be turning the thing around after a slew of MCs earlier in the season.Lucas Glover (DK $7,200, FD $9,100) – He’s got a solid track record at PGA National with a T4 last year and continued improvement each and every time he’s teed it up here (three straight Top 25s in the Honda Classic). He’s about 75-1 but could win here. I’ll be overweight on my GPP ownership and he’s even usable in cash games.Matthew NeSmith (DK $7,200, FD $8,900) – I really like his chances for a Top 10 this week following a T6 in Puerto Rico, mainly because he hits greens (T14 in GIR this season) and seems poised for a solid debut here.Kyoung-Hoon Lee (DK $7,000, FD $8,500) – Lee didn’t seem too flummoxed by PGA National in his 2019 debut when he finished T7 with Wyndham Clark, and his stats in GIR and Par 4 scoring make him a great bargain. Talor Gooch (DK $7,200, FD $8,600) – Gooch is a cut-making machine this year (10 straight) and he’s fared well at some difficult tracks, including a T10 at Riviera in the Genesis. His T20 last season points to a level of growing comfort at this venue (MC in 2018).Bronson Burgoon (DK $6,700, FD $7,800) – Burgoon is my sub-$7K wild card and someone who has navigated the Bear Trap surprisingly well over the years (10 rounds without a bogey). It’s not a catch-all stat, but it’s something to note among the dirt-cheap longshots.More value golfers forGPPs: Sam Burns, Matt Wallace, Chesson Hadley, Nick Watney, MichaelThompson, Doc Redman, Peter MalnatiOther bargain golfers makingtheir debut at PGA National who could finish among the Top 25: Harry Higgs, Kurt Kitayama,Matthew Wolff, Maverick McNealy 4 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Daily Fantasy SportsPGA PGA DFS Picks: The Houston Open jason mezrahi 5 years ago written by jason mezrahi In this edition of PGA DFS picks, I’m looking at golfers from all the price ranges in the Houston Open to find the right mix and get you six golfers to make the cut and win you some green on Sunday!Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!Quick Course Notes: The Houston open has returned (in October) to the PGA Tour, but the schedule change has eliminated a lot of the bigger names from this event. We do have Henrik Stenson in the field, and he’s the favorite.It’s hosted by the Tournament Course at the Golf Club of Houston – which has some penalizing rough and Bermuda greens.No major weather issues this week.Large field (144 golfers) with cut line at Top 65 and ties – so having 6/6 will be a challenge.The Picks:Elite PGA DFSRussell Henley (DK $10,100, FD $10,500) – Henley is a course horse of the highest order, with 5/5 cuts in the past five years. He’s also made 7/7 cuts since the John Deere Classic. Hopefully he’s not stumped by the longer rough and climate change from spring.Daniel Berger (DK $10,400, FD $11,000) – The Floridian has lots of great finishes in Houston and is coming off a T18 at the Shriners. A complete golfer without any major flaws who loves the grainy Bermuda.Pat Perez (DK $9,700, FD $10,600) – Perez is a little expensive for my liking but that’s not enough to get me to fade him in GPPs. He’s a fan of Bermuda, has a T11 in his only appearance here and is coming off a solo 3rd finish in Las Vegas at the Shriners.Sebastian Munoz (DK $9,400, FD $10,200) – Munoz went to college at North Texas and he might not draw very high ownership after missing the cut at the Shriner’s in Vegas. But he won at Sanderson Farms a few weeks ago and finished 33rd at the Safeway. It’s a good week and location for a Top 10 rebound for Munoz.Mid-Range PGA DFSKyle Stanley (DK $9,200, FD $10,100) – Stanley is 3/3 in cuts at this event and is a top-notch ball striker who shouldn’t be flummoxed by the date change or the longer rough. He finished 8th here in 2017. Sam Ryder (DK $8.800, FD $9,100) – Ryder is a Stetson alum who finished in fifth place finish here as a rookie in 2018, when he had been struggling. Hes got a win under his belt, he clearly likes the venue and he just finished T18 at the Shriners after a couple of missed cuts to start the season.Bronson Burgoon (DK $8,400, FD $8,800) – Burgoon went to Texas A&M and finished 24th here last season in his debut appearance. He’s a streaky player who can make a lot of birdies, and he’s perfect as a mix-in for GPPs. Beau Hossler (DK $8,300, FD $9,600) – Another Texas (Longhorn) golfer with solid finishes here (2/2: 39th in 2017; 2nd in 2018), Hossler’s form is decent, his pricing is fair and he’s an exceptional putter – the number one thing I look for in DFS after ball-striking and the correlative Strokes Gained stats. Value PGA DFSRobbie Shelton (DK $7,900, $9,300) – The youngster is off to a good start this season and has a good track record on bermuda. He’s a perfect mid-range value option but there’s some risk associated with his ball-striking and lack of experience at this venue.Brian Gay (DK $7,600, FD $9,100) – He’s my buddy Mark Spada’s favorite under-the-radar DFS golf play and he’s been hotter than a pistol recently. He’s trending up since the start of the season but has thus far just been palatable at the Golf Club of Houston: 3/3 with his best finish as a T26 in 2009. Gay finished 43rd in 2014, his last time here.Michael Thompson (DK $7,300, FD $8,700) – Thompson loves GC of Houston and is 4/4 in cuts. He’s finished 14, 12 in his last two times here.Sepp Straka (DK $7,100, $8,300) – Straka is my wild card, and he’s not on many of the “golfers to watch” lists this week because he prefers poa annua greens to bermuda. He’s also making his tournament debut here at GC of Houston and has yet to make a cut this season. But there’s just so much promise to this young Austrian’s game that I’ll mix him into a few lineups at what promises to be very low ownership. Five more GPP options: Keegan Bradley (DK $9,000, FD $9,800), Luke List (DK $8,500, FD $9,700), Lanto Griffin (DK $8,000, FD $9,500), Richy Werenski (DK $7,700, FD $9,000), Robert Garrigus (DK $6,200, FD $7,000) The Fades:Brian Harman (DK $10,600, FD $10,900) – His course record is bad, his price is too high, and his ownership will be high given his current form. No thanks.Russell Knox (DK $9,200, $10,300) – Knox makes for a great GPP play in certain venues, but he’s expensive, he missed the cut in his only appearance here last season and his T48 at the Shriner’s doesn’t inspire confidence.Spades’ Fade of the Week:Cameron Champ (DK $10,800, FD $11,100) – “He shouldn’t be second in price and he has too many bad rounds.” – Mark “Spades” Spada I couldn’t agree more, Spades. Plus, this big hitter will most definitely be finding some of the extra-long rough and he’s not known as a great scrambler. 5 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
