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Los Angeles Dodgers

MLB Betting Guide: Monday, August 26, 2019

5 years ago

written by

We’re back on the grind and have seven MLB games on the Monday slate. I won’t be looking at all of them, but I do think we can make some good investments with a couple of MLB games. We’ll belooking at these investments in terms of “units”. If you aren’t familiar withthis method, think of units as ca...

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

8/22 DFS Hitting Picks and Stacks

5 years ago

written by

Nine of Thursday’s games will be under the lights, so pay no mind to the happenings at Wrigley between the Giants and Cubs or the conclusion of the Royals at Red Sox matchup that was suspended on August 7. If you want to make the long green, the 8/22 DFS Hitting Picks and Stacks is all about getting dirty after dark.

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8/22 DFS Hitting Catcher

Will Smith, C, LAD vs. TOR

DK ($4,600), FD ($3,800)

Normally, I’d suggest a bargain play behind the plate, but Smith has homered in each of the first two games of the series against the Blue Jays and comes into Thursday with six games of double-digit FanDuel points in his last seven starts. Smith has a 1.219 OPS while racking up 20 extra base hits among his first 28 professional hits. He’s also sporting a 10.2% walk rate and is making the most of his 51.6% hard contact rate by putting the ball in the air 54.8% of the time.

As vicious as Smith’s .314 BABIP feels, take a gander at his .488 Isolated Power. That’s some Ivan Drago with a bat and plate discipline stuff there. The way Smith has been swinging it almost feels like what Drago’s handler said in the early part of Rocky IV: Whatever he hits, he destroys. So trust that Smith will do so as your 8/22 DFS Hitting Picks and Stacks backstop.

8/22 DFS Hitting First Baseman

Jose Abreu, CWS vs. TEX

DK ($4,600), FD ($4,000)

Wednesday’s three-hit effort gave Abreu a third straight game of at least 20 FanDuel points, continuing an August assault on American League hurlers that’s resulted in six homers and 20 RBI and a .995 OPS. Looking more like his rookie season in 2014, Abreu has elevated his HR/FB% to 23% despite a fly ball rate that has dipped to 31.7%. He’s maintained a solid line drive rate (21.6%) and Isolated Power (.223) despite a dip in walk rate to a career-low 4.9%.

Expect the heat from his August bat to continue at the expense of Rangers starter Ariel Jurado, who has allowed righties to tag him at a .324 clip in his last seven starts. You’ll love Abreu if he gets the opportunity to hit up Jurado with runners on base; Jurado has allowed a .317 batting average with runners in scoring position.

8/22 DFS Hitting Second Baseman

Jonathan Villar, BAL vs. TB

DK ($4,900), FD ($3,800)

Improved plate discipline is behind Villar’s second half tear that continued on Wednesday with his fifth two-hit game in the last week. After a tepid .326 OBP in the first half, Villar has raised it to .391 after the All-Star Break along with a 151-point jump in OPS from .747 to .898. He also smacked his 17th homer in Wednesday’s victory, putting his .171 Isolated Power on par with his career-best power season in 2016 with the Brewers, where he hit 19 homers. Villar isn’t smacking the ball hard (27.3% hard contact rate), but is making the most of a 50.4% medium contact rate, which will work more favorably against Rays ace Ryan Yarborough.

Why suggest Villar against a lights out pitcher like Yarborough has been in the second half? Because you take caution in the wind and take the hitter with the 1.039 OPS over the month of August. Thank me later if you take Villar.

8/22 DFS Hitting Shortstop

Amed Rosario, NYM vs. CLE

DK ($4,100), FD ($3,100)

He’s found the pay station in three straight games and comes into Thursday with a blistering .571/.613/.750 slash over the past week and a .952 OPS post All-Star Break. Rosario is thriving behind a .348 BABIP with a wRC+ of 106. His speed rate has dipped a bit to 6.3 but he’s made up for that with more pop, evidenced by his .171 Isolated Power, a 34-point jump from last season. That extra kick is also shown in his hard contact rate, which now stands at 35.4% while his soft contact rate has fallen to 12.8.

The 8/22 DFS Hitting Picks does offer its share of solid shortstops to choose from, but Rosario is the only hitting like it’s a video game.

8/22 DFS Hitting Third Baseman

Asdrubal Cabrera, WAS at PIT

DK ($3,600), FD ($2,800)

When he’s good, he’s good, having delivered eight RBI split up between two games over the past week. Cabrera has put together two exceptional scoring outbursts for his users coming into the finale of the four-game set against the Pirates and has been in a two-week stretch that has seen him produce a 1.044 OPS in that span.

His recent tear has boosted his line drive rate to 23.6% along with a hard contact rate that has eclipsed 40% for the first time in his career. He’s more of a power threat against lefties, something to keep in mind as the Pirates wheel out southpaw Steven Brault to the mound.

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8/22 DFS Hitting Outfielder

Hunter Pence, TEX at CWS

DK ($5,500), FD($4,000)

The seemingly ageless Pence has gone .351/.467/.541 (1.008 OPS) over the past two weeks and hits the road for a weekend set at the hitter’s haven known as Guaranteed Rate Field. Pence is more productive outside Arlington, where he’s posted a 1.014 OPS and swatted 11 of his 18 homers. Add the fact that Pale Hose starter Ross Detwiler brings it from the left side, and Pence — who hits lefties to the tune of .333/.385/.648 and a 1.048 OPS — becomes more solid when it comes to grabbing an outfielder who can be a major contributor to any 8/22 DFS Hitting Picks lineup.

8/22 DFS Hitting Outfielder

Charlie Blackmon, COL at STL

DK ($5,400), FD ($4,600)

Blackmon heads into St. Louis having recorded seven multi-hit games in his last nine starts during an August that has seen him nearly double (1.164) his July OPS (.664). Even despite a noticeable dip in walk rate (5.6%), Blackmon is having another outstanding season that has been bolstered by a career-high .280 Isolated Power and .358 BABIP.

This is also a good time to run with Blackmon, whose post All-Star Break has taken a bit of a drop to “just” .930 and is likely to see more time off as the Rockies’ Wild Card hopes dip with each passing day.

8/22 DFS Hitting Outfielder

Yordan Alvarez, HOU vs. DET

DK (5,800), FD ($4,200)

To throw another Rocky IV quote, Alvarez has shown “he’s a man,” having hit just .227 over the past week. Then again, that .227 has come with a pair of homers, a .379 OBP and .970 OPS. Perhaps we could be wrong. He’s been quiet, which is why I think that silence comes to an end at the expense of an improved yet still hitter’s chum in Tigers starter Jordan Zimmermann, who has been mauled by lefties (.322/.391/.526) the way Jaws found Quint to be a tasty mid-morning snack.

I don’t think he’ll eclipse the 76.30 FanDuel points he racked up on August 10, but I get the feeling Alvarez has a 30-40 FD point night waiting in his bat.

8/22 DFS Hitting Stacks

8/22 Stack of the Night: Houston Astros: I’m going all-in with the Astros’ left-handed hitters, beginning with Alvarez and including Michael Brantley, who goes in at a reasonable $4,000 at FanDuel. This would be a good night to throw a low-risk, high-reward dart in Josh Reddick’s direction ($2,400 FanDuel). Of course, there’s the usual faces to consider in Alex Bregman, George Springer and Jose Altuve, and while you can’t all of them, I’d make sure the lefties are in.

8/22 Stack Runner-Up: Atlanta Braves: Marlins starter Sandy Alcantara — who I think will be an All-Star hurler down the road — struggles with control away from home, so I’d look at going big with Freddie Freeman, who has four homers over the past week despite a .217 batting average, and Ronald Acuna, Jr., who has also kept up his pop despite hitting just .238 in the last week. Josh Donaldson has hit well of late, putting together a .458 OBP and 1.358 OPS in the last week, so he’s a strong play as well.

8/22 Stack to Consider: Chicago White Sox: As mentioned in the Abreu profile, the White Sox are facing a starter that has been shelled over the past month. Abreu is a good foundation for a stack along with Eloy Jimenez, who has a pair of homers in the past week. Tim Anderson is hitting .433 over the past week, and I’d look at James McCann as another right-handed bat to throw into what should be a fun party off of Ariel Jurado.

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5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

8/21 DFS Pitching Picks

5 years ago

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Hump Day offers a smattering of daytime baseball but the best cash plays for our 8/21 DFS Pitching Picks come out at night. With the usual 15-game slate, expect solid choices for all formats.

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8/21 DFS Pitching Cash Game Pitchers

Justin Verlander, HOU vs. DET

DK ($12,400) FD ($12,500)

It begins and ends with Verlander for the 8/21 DFS Pitching Picks when it comes to best cash game options. Yes, it’s going to cost you, but Verlander has put up at least 30 FanDuel points in all but two starts dating back to April 8. He’s been freaking Lights Out over his last six starts, recording at least 10 Ks in each, putting within the outer edge of his first 300-K season. Barring the unforeseen, Verlander will push the streak to seven at the expense of a Tigers team that is third only to the Mariners and Rangers in batter’s strikeouts (1,219). You don’t need a lot of fancy next gen numbers with this pick: Ante up and watch the K’s come.

Charlie Morton, TB vs. SEA

DK ($11,100) FD ($11,600)

Easily the best play among the daytime starters, Morton has helped deliver the long green in his past three starts, having produced FanDuel totals of 46, 42 and 55 points. He’s pitching at home in the Trop, where opponents have managed a .197 batting average and where Morton has a K:BB rate of 105:16 over 75.2 innings at home. Expensive? Yes, but if you’re playing an afternoon slate, there’s no other pitcher that comes close to giving you what Morton can provide.

This should be a dual act of Morton either fanning batters at will (remember, the Mariners lead the majors with 1,237 Ks from their hitters) or watching his 48.7% ground ball rate improve a tick or two. Seattle’s lineup doesn’t look like the Triple-A offense the Tigers will have in Houston tonight, but it’s one that is essentially playing for their fans at 10:10am.

Walker Buehler, LAD vs. TOR

DK ($11,400) FD ($11,000)

Like Verlander, Buehler finds himself in an ideal scenario: at home against a free-swinging team that’s allergic to walks. Slightly less expensive than V-Squared, Buehler also has lacked Verlander’s consistency, having pitched a combined 10 innings in his last two starts, but I love the FanDuel projection (41.70 points) for him tonight. Buehler has a sick, sick, sick K:BB rate of 10.57:1.66. That number is more perverse when looking at his K:BB rate when pitching at Dodger Stadium, as Buehler sports a 94:7 rate in 73.1 innings tossed at home. To paraphrase a line of the song “Walking in LA” by the 1980s new wave group Missing Persons, nobody walks in LA, especially when Buehler is on the mound.

Toronto is 23rd in batter’s strikeouts, but for all the future talent brimming in their lineup, the Blue Jays are 28th in the majors with a .304 OBP. Do not count on that number improving after Wednesday night. In short, Buehler is money well spent for the 8/21 DFS Pitching Picks.

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8/21 DFS Pitching GPP Picks

Mike Minor, TEX vs. LAA

DK ($10,400) FD ($9,300)

He’s matched up well against the Angels, having gone 3-0 with a 2.08 ERA in five starts against them. Minor put up 58 FanDuel points against them on April 16 and followed that with a solid 34 FDP in a May 25 start before a 16 FDP clunker versus Team Trout on July 2. His ability to reduce his fly ball rate (40%) is a key element behind his underrated performance this season and is also a welcomed fact considering how the ball can fly in Arlington on a hot August night.

Minor also brings a 12:7% HR:BB rate to the party and does come into this start with a lot of DFS momentum, recording 52 and 67 FanDuel points in his last two starts. The Angels managed just 13 hits in a double-header split on Tuesday, and I don’t suspect their bats will come alive against Minor.

Mike Fiers, OAK vs. NYY

DK ($9,600) FD ($7,700)

This sets to be a trap game for those who like to stack Yankees batters. Fiers is Cy Young-caliber at Oakland Coliseum, where he has a 7-2 record with a 2.89 ERA while allowing hitters to get him at a .215 clip. He’s a bit pricey at DraftKings and does come off his worst DFS scoring performance since May 1, managing just 18 FanDuel points against the Tigers (!!!). However, he has delivered at least 30 FanDuel points in three of his last four starts at home. If there is any concern regarding Fiers, it’s the 5.99 K/9 rate he brings to the table.

That’s a tad unnerving, especially considering the level of lumber the Yanks will have in the lineup, but since Fiers is at home, you have to give him the edge and simply trust he can keep his infielders busy while hoping his 39.5% fly ball rate doesn’t take a sharp turn.

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8/21 DFS Pitching Punt Pick

Joe Musgrove, PIT vs. WAS

DK ($5,900) FD ($7,200)

Musgrove is a roller coaster, but what fun he can be when he’s on. He comes off a solid outing against the Cubs that resulted in 47 FanDuel points, continuing a season-long trend that has seen him either blow up DFS lineups or become an unsung hero to those crazy enough to run with him. Musgrove has allowed three or fewer earned runs in three of his last four starts and is also on a 10-start stretch that has seen him walk two or fewer batters eight times.

The Nats’ offensive onslaught was slowed on Tuesday night, and if you’re a believer that it’s a sign of regression from Washington, boy, do I have a sleeper play for you.

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

MLB Hitting Stacks: Winning Edge for August 21

5 years ago

written by

This report will provide recommended DFS stack options for today’s 11-game main slate. I will also include my favorite pitching picks.

All plays are listed in order of preference. Please check back between 5-6 PM EST as some players can receive rest days or get limited at bats especially as we get closer to the postseason. Make sure you stay up to date with all our favorite plays on our DFS Cheat Sheet as well.

Teams with Highest IRT

MLB Hitting Stack: Houston Astros**

vs. LHP Daniel Norris (DET): 6.35 Runs

**Low Risk

The Astros offense has come back down to reality as of late after going on a heater for the last month. This is still a dangerous lineup and they get a favorable matchup against LHP Daniel Norris. He is having an average season, owning 4.82 ERA, 4.86 FIP, and 4.70 SIERA. Norris has a GB rate of 41% and a BABIP of .318. He is allowing 1.68 HR/9. His splits are pretty identical so i feel comfortable going R or L through this Astros lineup.

Preferred Plays: Yordon Alvarez ($4300 FD|$5500 DK), Alex Bregman ($4500 FD|$5200 DK), George Springer ($4100 FD|$4900 DK), and Jose Altuve ($4400 FD|$5100 DK).

MLB Hitting Stack: Boston Red Sox

vs. LHP Drew Smyly (BOS): 6.60 Runs

**Moderate Risk

As of now the Red Sox hold the highest implied run total on the slate. They get a weak left handed pitcher in Drew Smyly, who had a flash of greatness when traded to the Phillies, but now he seems to be back to his normal 7.00+ ERA self, giving up four or more runs in his last three starts. Smyly is allowing a massive 47% hard contact, 46% fly ball rate, and 2.81 HR/9. I have a tough time paying the premium salary for these Red Sox players with the fantasy output we’ve been getting in return lately, but they should be one of the top owned stacks tonight.

Other Teams I Have Interest in

MLB Hitting Stack: Los Angeles Dodgers

vs. RHP Thomas Pannone (TOR): 4.25 Runs

**Moderate Risk

MLB Hitting Stack: Washington Nationals

vs. RHP Joe Musgrove (PIT): 5.10 Runs

**Low Risk

MLB Hitting Stack: Atlanta Braves

vs. LHP Caleb Smith (MIA): 5.75 Runs

**Moderate Risk

Preferred Plays: Adam Duvall ($2900 FD|$3800 DK), Josh Donaldson ($3600 FD|$4500 DK), Ozzie Albies ($3400 FD|$4500 DK), and Charlie Culberson ($2000 FD|$3600 DK).

Pitching

Adrian Houser RHP (MIL): 4.20
Yu Darvish RHP (CHC): UPDATE
Walker Buehler RHP (LAD): 4.25 Runs

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5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

Fantasy Team Stacks: MLB Winning Edge for August 18

5 years ago

written by

This report will provide recommended DFS stack options for today’s nine-game main slate. I will also include my favorite pitching picks.

All plays are listed in order of preference. Please check back between 5-6 PM EST as some players can receive rest days or get limited at bats especially as we get closer to the postseason. Make sure you are watching the weather as well.

Teams with Highest IRT

Fantasy Team Stack: Boston Red Sox**

vs. LHP Tyler Blach (BOS): UPDATE

**Low Risk

Back to the Red Sox we go! No line out from Vegas yet but it’s safe to assume that Boston will carry the biggest implied run total on today’s slate. Same song and dance, the Red Sox face the worst bullpen and starting pitching rotation in all of baseball. Ty Blach is a career dumpster fire and carries a 13.94 ERA, 7.67 FIP, and 6.29 SIERA through 10 innings pitched this season. History tells us Blach has been fairly decent to lefties but I won’t hesitate to play Devers. Guy’s like J.D. Martinez and Mookie Betts are a priority for me. The Red Sox continue to hit well, slashing to a .373 wOBA, .272 ISO, and 130 WRC+ for the month. Massive chalk here but I feel fine eating it.

Fantasy Team Stack: New York Mets

vs. RHP Glenn Sparkman (KCR): 5.80 Runs

**High Risk

Initial chalk reports this morning indicate that the Mets should attract a good bit of ownership. I can respect that at first glance with Glenn Sparkman owning a 13% K rate and 84% contact on the year. If we dig a little further we will see that other than two starts Sparkman has been very dominant to right handed batting at home. He has allowed hitters to slash to a measley .278 wOBA, .370 SLG, and .281 OBP through 57 innings pitched. I’m not advocating you to play Sparkman, there just isn’t enough strikeout upside with him and win probability is slim with Wheeler on the other side of the plate. I will likely fade the Mets here as they are rolling out seven righties.

Fantasy Team Stack: Milwaukee Brewers/Washington Nationals**

vs. RHP Eric Fedde (TEX): 5.50 Runs

vs. RHP Chase Anderson (MIL): 5.50 Runs

**Moderate Risk

This is another game that should attract a good bit of ownership. The Brewers and Nationals put on a 14 inning show last night combining for 29 total runs. In the meantime they both exhausted their entire bullpens and we get two pitchers who typically don’t go deep into games facing off in today’s matchup. The weather and park factor give us a boost as well. My only hesitation is a possible hangover from a quick turnaround but other than that I like both of these teams today.

Brewers: Preferred Plays: Christian Yelich ($4700 FD|$5600 DK), Trent Grisham ($3000 FD|$3500 DK), Keston Hiura ($3500 FD|$4000 DK), and Eric Thames ($3000 FD|$4300 DK).

Other Teams I Have Interest in

Fantasy Team Stack: Toronto Blue Jay’s

vs. LHP Yusei Kikuchi (SEA): 5.60 Runs

**Moderate Risk

Fantasy Team Stack: Los Angeles Dodgers**

vs. LHP Max Fried (ATL): 4.75 Runs

**Moderate Risk

Pitching

Jack Flaherty RHP (STL): 3.90 Runs
Tony Gonsolin RHP (COL): 5.30 Runs
Mike Clevinger RHP (CLE): 4.90 Runs

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

MLB DFS Team Stacks: Winning Edge for August 17

5 years ago

written by

This report will provide recommended DFS stack options for today’s nine-game main slate. I will also include my favorite pitching picks.

All plays are listed in order of preference. Please check back between 5-6 PM EST as some players can receive rest days or get limited at bats especially as we get closer to the postseason. Make sure you are watching the weather as well.

Teams with Highest IRT

MLB DFS Team Stack: Colorado Rockies

vs. RHP Hector Noesi (MIA): 7.80 Runs

**Low Risk

I hope all of you considered my advice yesterday when I said to fade Coors. Three runs from the Rockies isn’t a good fantasy output but that brings us to today. I am all over the Rockies. They face Hector Noesi, who has struggled with his splits his entire career. He has only pitched 11 innings this season, but owns a 8.18 ERA, 7.58 FIP, and 5.29 SIERA. He struggles where we need him to, allowing right handed batters to slash to a .387 wOBA, .640 SLG, and .321 OBP. Limited sample, but even in years past Noesi has always struggled to righties. The Rockies are slashing to a .338 wOBA, .196 ISO and 92 WRC+, just above their season averages. I will have a nice chunk of exposure to the Rockies tonight.

MLB DFS Team Stack: Boston Red Sox

vs. RHP Asher Wojciechowski (BAL): 7.00 Runs

**Moderate Risk

Last night I faded Coors for Boston and it worked out pretty well. Today I will be doing the exact opposite and will be fading Boston. I’m not saying they aren’t in a good spot, cause it is the Orioles and their bullpen is awful as we all know. I’m not inclined to attack Wojcie with his respectable 27.5% K rate, although he has struggled in recent outings. My hope is the Coors letdown yesterday will drive ownership down and people will gravitate to this game instead. The Red Sox are hovering right around their season averages, slashing to a .349 wOBA, .217 ISO, and 113 WRC+ for the month of August.

Preferred Plays: Xander Bogaerts ($4200 FD|$5100 DK), Rafael Devers ($4400 FD|$5600 DK), and Mookie Betts ($4100 FD|$5200 DK), and Andrew Benintendi ($3700 FD|$4500 DK)

MLB DFS Team Stack: Minnesota Twins**

vs. RHP Ariel Jurado (TEX): 6.50 Runs

**Low Risk

Did somebody say two Coors Fields in one slate? I am all over the Twins tonight. An excellent hitting park, a bad pitcher, and one of the best hitting teams in the league that are slashing to a .349 wOBA, .230 ISO, and 114 WRC+ for the month of August. Ariel Jurado is one of, if not the worst pitcher on tonight’s slate. Jurado owns a 5.31 ERA, 4.80 FIP, and 4.96 SIERA. He has a 44% GB rate coupled with a .314 BABIP. Jurado also has the lowest K rate on the slate at 17% and he is facing the fourth best team in MLB in terms of strikeout percentage. It’s a hot one in Texas today, folks. Load up on the MIN bats.

Other Teams I Have Interest in

MLB DFS Team Stack: San Francisco Giants**

vs. RHP Taylor Clarke (ARI): 4.85 Runs

**Moderate Risk

DFS Team Stack: Los Angeles Dodgers**

vs. RHP Mike Foltynewicz (ATL): 5.50 Runs

**Low Risk

Pitching

Jacob deGrom RHP (NYM): 3.20 Runs
German Marquez RHP (COL): 4.50 Runs
Dinelson Lamet RHP (SDP): 4.75 Runs

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

MLB DFS Stacks: Winning Edge for August 14

Daniel Wehr 5 years ago

written by Daniel Wehr

This report will provide recommended DFS stack options for today’s six-game main slate. I will also include my favorite pitching picks.

**All plays are listed in order of preference. Please check back between 5-6 PM EST as some players can receive rest days or get limited at bats especially as we get closer to the postseason. Make sure you are watching the weather as well.

MLB DFS Stack: Seattle Mariners

vs. RHP Edwin Jackson (DET): 5.50 Runs

**Low Risk

It’s been awhile since I’ve been able to go after our favorite fantasy pitcher, Edwin Jackson. He has been downright bad this season, owning a 9.35 ERA, 8.23 FIP, and 5.69 SIERA. He is pitching for the worst team in baseball. The Tigers have a run differential of -233 so I can see this one getting out of hand quickly. Detroit also ranks 27th in terms of bullpen efficiency, so when Jackson comes out I expect the runs to continue to pour. The Mariners are not at their best, slashing to a .295 wOBA, .123 ISO, and 86 WRC+. Despite the poor hitting averages, the Mariners are poised to break out of their hitting slump with a gravy starting pitcher and bullpen matchup.

MLB DFS Stack: Atlanta Braves

vs. LHP Steven Matz (NYM): 5.50 Runs

**Moderate Risk

The Braves will likely draw a nice chunk of ownership as they have been hitting well over the last month and it is a pretty small slate. They are slashing to a .331 wOBA, .181 ISO, and 101 WRC+. Steven Matz is on the mound and has massive struggles away from home, allowing hitters to slash to a .381 wOBA, .573 SLG, and .362 OBP. He has allowed 42 earned runs and 16 home runs in 55 innings pitched during that span. He owns a 4.49 ERA, 4.72 FIP, and 4.46 SIERA. His 47% GB rate coupled with a .315 BABIP should set the Braves up nicely for some extra base hits tonight.

Other Teams I Like

MLB DFS Stack: St. Louis Cardinals

vs. RHP Brad Keller (KCR): 5.30 Runs

**Moderate/High Risk

MLB Stack: Los Angeles Dodgers

vs. RHP Elieser Hernandez (MIA): 5.25 Runs

**Low Risk

Preferred Plays: Max Muncy ($3700 FD|$5100 DK), Cody Bellinger ($4600 FD|$5500 DK), Joc Pederson ($3200 FD|$4500 DK), and Corey Seager ($3300 FD|$4100 DK).

Pitching

Clayton Kershaw LHP (LAD): 2.70 Runs
Marco Gonzales LHP (SEA): 4.40 Runs
Aaron Nola RHP (PHI): 4.45 Runs

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

8/14 DFS Pitching Picks: Kershaw Brings Miami Heat

5 years ago

written by

Tuesday begat Wednesday, and based on the quality of pitching available for the 8/14 DFS Pitching Picks, I kinda wish we stayed with Tuesday, Gerrit Cole scratch excluded. Save for the Dodgers doing us a favor and pushing Clayton Kershaw back an extra day, this shapes to be a meh-like slate of arms.

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My advice: invest in offense. Lots of offense. There have been worse days filled with mediocre to bad pitching across the board, but Wednesday is all about dart throwing for the most part. Fortunately for you, I’m throwing the darts, so sit back, follow the advice and count the long green that hits your accounts early Thursday morning.

8/14 DFS Pitching Cash Game Pitchers

Clayton Kershaw, LAD at MIA

DK ($11,800) FD ($12,000)

No explanation was given as to why Kershaw was pushed back an extra day, but one guess could be that he went about 100 pitches for only the fifth time this season in his last start. That being said, there will be many who will partake in Kershaw in what should be a feast against Marlins hitting.

Kershaw’s K/9 have fallen to “just’ 9.07, but the combination of a 1.94 BB/9 rate and a matchup against the league’s second-lowest scoring offense is a winning pair. Miami is averaging a mere 3.66 runs per game and are tied with Detroit for the Major League worst in OPS+ (78). Starting Kershaw. who has five starts of at least 46 FanDuel points in his last six starts, will eat into your offense, but this is a layup if you’re looking for pitching to amplify your DFS roster today.

Wade Miley, HOU at CWS

DK ($9,000) FD ($9,200)

Miley hasn’t lost a decision since June 17, having won five straight in a stretch where the Astros have gone 7-1 when he’s on the mound. Over those eight starts, Miley has allowed two runs or fewer in all but one and has produced a 2.21 ERA and .183 OBA since the All-Star Break. If you’re playing an afternoon-only slate, Miley could be the anchor of your staff, as he sports a 2.05 ERA in four daytime starts this season. Never a big strikeout artist, Miley has added two Ks per nine frames this season, going from a pedestrian 5.58 K/9 to a passable 7.55 K/9.

Miley continues to keep the ball on the ground (52.9% ground ball rate) but one of the biggest contributors to his career year has been a sharp reduction in line drive rate. Hitters had a 23.6% LD rate against him last season; those tables have turned to 16.1% this season. With a solid RA9 of 3.25, my bet is on Miley acing the pack.

8/14 DFS Pitching GPP Pitchers

Shane Bieber, CLE vs. BOS

DK ($10,700) FD ($10,700)

Bieber continues to make a play for AL Cy Young consideration, having struck out 37 batters over his last 32 innings, a stretch that also includes a pair of complete games and 1.69 ERA. The Indians will be looking for a similar effort from him after their bullpen has been gassed over the first two games of an offensive-heavy series entering an early start time on Wednesday.

While he certainly belongs in the cash game section, there’s mild concerns about Bieber that puts him in the GPP pack. For starters, the Red Sox lit him up for three homers and six earned runs in his only other start against them on May 29, yet he earned the win despite going five innings in a 14-9 slugfest. Bieber can counter that by displaying his 80:8 K:BB rate over 63 innings of daylight play. Whiffs and control are locks here, but Bieber’s 44.4% hard contact rate is a sign that his recent run could come to a brutal halt, especially with the caliber of bats the Red Sox will bring to the table.

Stephen Strasburg, WAS vs. CIN

DK ($11,000) FD ($11,000)

After Strasburg, the pitching cliff falls. Trust me, you won’t like the landing. He’s looked human over his last two starts after a run that saw him put up at least 46 FanDuel points in four of five starts that included a 74 FD point gem on July 3. Despite the elevated ERA, Strasburg is already +12 in RAR over last season and his 3.9 WAR puts him on pace to approach his career-best 6.4 from 2017.

In what looks like a sign of Strasburg adjusting to age, he’s thrown his fastball under 50% for the first time in his career (49.6%), relying more on his curve (30.2%) than at any other time. Strasburg is whiffing batters at a 29.2% clip, so whatever he’s doing is working. When it comes to his ERA, Strasburg’s 3.28 FIP tells a more accurate story than his actual 3.72 ERA. I’d consider Strasburg in the cash format, but the Reds have the firepower to make him a risk, which is why he falls in the 8/14 DFS Pitching Picks rankings.

8/14 DFS Pitching Punt Play

Cal Quantrill, SD vs. TB

DK ($6,200) FD ($7,000)

Since the Padres made him a fixture in the rotation, Quantrill has ripped off a 1.62 ERA in six starts. The early stretch of walks is a distant memory, as he averages just 2.31 BB/9 overall while also holding batters to a .183 OBA since the All-Star Break, a run that has seen Quantrill’s ERA dip to 0.93. He also eclipsed the 100-pitch mark for the first time in his career while throwing seven shutout innings against the Rockies last Thursday.

Quantrill offers just enough strikeout punch (7.33 K/9) and a 2.93 home ERA, a combination that makes him a good low-risk, high-reward option. The Rays are hitting the ball well on the road (+21 in homers), but Quantrill’s recent run will last long enough to slow down Tampa Bay’s methodical lineup.

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

8/10 DFS Pitching Picks: Uncle Charlie Does Seattle

Brandon C. Williams 5 years ago

written by Brandon C. Williams

Trust me, the 8/10 DFS pitching slate is pretty darn thin in quality. Sure, there’s a handful of familiar names, some of whom were once solid pitchers. The majority of starting arms feels more like a Saturday special from Guy’s Groovy Grab Bag, one that includes the ever-annoying TBD, otherwise known as the DFS version of Mystery Date (kids, Mystery Date was a…aw, just Google it).

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8/10 DFS Pitching Cash Game Pitchers

Charlie Morton, TB at SEA

DK ($10,700) FD ($10,100)

One of two Cash Game-worthy arms pitching today, Morton is on pace to get the A.L. Cy Young scraps that former Astros teammates Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander will leave on the floor. Morton is on pace to surpass his career-best 201 strikeouts, fanning at least six in eight of his last 10 starts. He’s been a model of consistency, especially for FanDuel users, as he’s recorded at least 30 FD points in 11 of his last 13 starts. The Mariners are almost tailor made for another evening of Morton making opposing lineups look like human air conditioners as Seattle’s offense is 26th in strikeout percentage (25.6%). Morton is difficult to homer against, having allowed just 11 over 143.1 innings of work, with much of that is due to the struggles that come from getting fly balls off of him (30.1% fly ball rate). If you’re going to spend money on an arm, then invest it in Morton.

Noah Syndergaard, NYM at WAS

DK ($10,500) FD ($10,800)

…or Syndergaard, who’s been ruthlessly efficient over his last five starts, going at least seven innings while allowing three or fewer earned runs in each. Oh yeah: he’s not given up a homer since July 6. His run is part of the reason why the Mets have won 14 of their last 15 as Syndergaard goes against a Nationals lineup he’s handled well this season, holding them to a .179 batting average and striking out 19 over 20 innings (three starts). The Nats have, however, homered three times against him, neatly explaining the 3.60 ERA. Syndergaard’s 3.44 FIP is a better indication of how effective he has been rather than his 3.96 ERA. Like Morton, Thor drops major hammer on those seeking to get solid contact off him, oppressing batters to a 28% hard contact rate while keeping fly balls at a modest 32.6% clip.The Nats’ 95 OPS+ falls just below league average. More concerning about the Nationals’ lineup is how bereft of power they are on the road. Washington loses 60 points off its slugging percentage (.466 to .406) when away from home. Those numbers are worse when looking at their production at Citi Field, where Washington goes .227/.238/391.

8/10 DFS GPP Plays

Mike Soroka, ATL at MIA

DK ($9,100) FD ($8,100)

Miami’s bats roll over for Soroka almost as easily as my cat rolls over for treats. In 15 innings against Soroka this season, the Marlins have batted .115 with six hits and one earned run against the breakout righty. Soroka continues to be downright stingy when it comes to allowing fly balls, limiting opponents to a paltry 23.6% rate. With that kind of infrequency, it’s easy to see why Soroka has allowed just seven homers this season. He’s more miserly on the road, allowing a OBA of .197 in 12 starts outside the ATL and should be in line for another start in which his infielders stay fairly busy (54.6% ground ball rate).Since this is a family site, I’ll just say the Marlins offense stinks. Not my first choice of description, but rules. Miami is tied for last in OPS+ (78) and have hit a composite .235/.288/.399 since the All-Star Break. In a year of graphic power displays across the league, the Marlins remain the only team in the Majors without at least 100 homers. You can’t use Marlins Park as too much of an excuse; you could put Miami’s lineup in Yankee Stadium and they’d still struggle.

Kenta Maeda, LA vs. ARI

DK ($7,000) FD ($7,700)

He’s pitching at home, which is why it can be considered safe to start Maeda, who has a 3.17 ERA and a .181 OBA at Dodger Stadium. Maeda also gets bonus points for his work against the Diamondbacks this season, holding Arizona’s bats to a .175 OBA. Home runs, which weren’t an issue in 2018, have reared their ugly head this year with Maeda allowing 1.40 HR/9. That’s due in part to a rise in his fly ball rate, which has gone to 39.1%, almost near the levels that got him in homer purgatory in 2017. Being at home should also further suppress Maeda’s 29.6 hard contact rate. Although the Diamondbacks have been solid in making contact this season, again, the pleasure of being in Dodger Stadium, where he strikes more than a batter per inning, works in Maeda’s favor.

8/10 DFS Punt Plays

Aaron Sanchez, HOU at BAL

DK ($6,900) FD ($8,200)

Who else but Sanchez to highlight the punt play? If you saw his 10-strikeout, no-walk effort in his last start with the Blue Jays, last Saturday’s six innings of no-hit ball against the Mariners as part of a combined no-no could have been seen coming (somewhat). Granted, no one expected the no-hitter, but Sanchez had been quietly regaining his control. He enters this evening’s start having gone five straight starts with two walks or fewer and with the Astros bullpen far more reliable than what he had in Toronto, Sanchez can air it out for 5-6 innings with limited damage before hitting the showers. His fastball was more pronounced in his first Houston start, making him yet another apt pupil from Astros pitching coach Brent Strom.

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

MLB DFS Stacks and Hitting Picks Of Destiny: August 1st

Emely Sharman 5 years ago

written by Emely Sharman

This Thursday August 1st slate is all about landing the right bats. Follow my studs and value plays and lock in the MLB DFS Picks of Destiny.

MLB DFS STACKS: Dodgers, Astros And Braves Lead Thursday Offensive

L.A. Dodgers: They are coming out of Coors Field, and while I traditionally don’t like to play teams right after that I will make an exception for these elite bats. The Dodgers take on Joey Lucchesi (L) at home tonight. Luch has a great 2.71 ERA at home but is SIGNIFICANTLY worse on the road (6.48 ERA). The Dodgers will no doubt roll out an outstanding lefty hitting lineup to keep Luch away from a QS and then get into that worrisome Padres bullpen. The Dodgers are my safest stack, with highest upside tonight.

Justin Turner, Max Muncy, Cody Bellinger, A.J. Pollock, Kristopher Negron (My favorite players analysis and pricing listed below)

Houston Astros: The Astros go up against Danny Salazar and the Indians. Salazar has not made a major league start since 2017. He has looked good in AAA (2.60 ERA 28:5 K:BB) but he wasn’t facing hitters like the Astros 1-8. The Astros lineup is just too scary to fade. At least two of them are getting homers tonight maybe more, you just have to roster the right ones.

George Springer, Michael Brantley, Carlos Correa, Alex Bregman, Yuli Gurriel, Yordan Alvarez, Robinson Chirinos (My favorite players analysis and pricing listed below)

Atlanta Braves: The Braves are another elite lineup facing a mediocre pitcher in Anthony DeSclafani. He is worse on the road with a 4.64 ERA and the ballpark he is traveling to is not exactly a “pitcher’s park”. It’s hot at Suntrust and the ball is flying. You also have a lineup in the Braves with a ton of pop and motivation to win games and hold a top spot in the playoffs. I’m thinking we get a June throwback DeSclafani game where he gives up multiple runs and doesn’t go six innings. Braves stack could be a GPP winner.

Freddie Freeman, Josh Donaldson, Ozzie Albies, Ronald Acuna Jr, Adam Duvall, McCann/Flowers (My favorite players analysis and pricing listed below)

Note: The Boston Red Sox are in a great spot tonight too. I am being forced to fade them because of their high price tags and me paying up for Kershaw against the Padres. If you can find another pitcher you like that will allow Red Sox bats, go for it.

GUT STACK: Tampa Bay Rays vs Andrew Cashner: Sometimes Cashner is good and sometimes Cashner is Trashner. I am hoping for the second one tonight. This is a GPP play because Cashner has proven this year he has made significant changes to not get completely obliterated every start like he was doing in Baltimore for so long. I like a couple Rays bats listed below (d’Arnaud and Meadows) so I might as well throw in a couple other hot players like Ji-Man Choi and Kevin Kiermaier

MLB DFS Bats:

Position Rankings and Values

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Catcher: Travis D’Arnaud ($3,400 FD; $4,900 DK) is batting third vs Andrew Cashner. While Cashner has made improvement this year he still carries a 4.18 ERA. Someone should get to Cashner and my bet is D’Arnaud (or Meadows; see below). D’Arnaud batted .338/.732 SLG in July and is producing every night. I feel comfortable with him continuing his dominant month in Fenway tonight.

Catcher Mid/Value: Robinson Chirinos ($3,100 FD; $3,900 DK) is batting seventh with six very capable bats in front of him to help wear down Danny Salazar. Chirinos is cheap (for Houston) and has 11 homers on the season vs right handed pitching. He is also hitting .212 ISO/.344 wOBA in the same time frame. I like him, at the price, in a Houston stack to get us double digit fantasy points.

Honorable Mention: Flowers/McCann

First Base Stud: Paul Goldschmidt ($4,300 FD; $4,400 DK) is still on fire. HE HAS SEVEN HOME RUNS IN HIS LAST EIGHT GAMES. The last seven games he has hit an astounding .400/1.000 SLG/1.423 OPS. He will be able to compete with the lefty Jon Lester just fine. In their history Goldy has hit Lester seven times with 15 ABs and a homer. Don’t overthink it.

First Base Value: Yuli Gurriel ($3,300 FD; $4,500 DK) is another cheaper option on the Houston Astros. He is tied with Alex Bregman for 17 homers off righties on the season. He averages a .224 ISO/ .260 wOBA. Gurriel feels very safe with big upside.

Honorable Mention: Freddie Freeman

Second Base: Max Muncy ($3,800 FD; $4,400 DK) has been relatively quiet lately (which has brought his price down a touch) but all it takes in one big swing with him. As mentioned in STACKS, I like targeting Luch tonight. I also like Muncy vs a lefty. He is hitting them at .232 ISO/.375wOBA this year with seven home runs in 119 ABs. I like Muncy to round out my Dodger stacks.

Second Base Value: Cavan Biggio ($3,300 FD; $4,200 DK) is making his Dad, and fantasy owners, proud this past week. In his last five games he is averaging 20.38 FanDuel points. He is batting .243 ISO/.349 wOBA on the season vs right handed pitching. The opposing pitcher, Asher Wojciechowski, has made a very respectable entrance in MLB recently with a 3.60 ERA and .93 WHIP but we are looking for value here. When cheaper players tend to get rolling, like Biggio is right now, I tend to gravitate to them. Woj, started hot for sure, and may even be popular tonight, but he is still unproven in my book. I’ll take a cheap shot on Biggio if I can’t pay up.

Honorable Mention: Ozzie Albies, Jose Altuve

Shortstop Stud: Carlos Correa ($3,700 FD; $4,300 DK) has come to life recently with two home runs in his past four games. He missed a good chunk of the season but appears to finally be healthy again. I hope people forgot just how good this guy is. The Astros are going to be a force in the playoffs.. Anyway, Correa is batting .231 ISO/.324 on the season. He faces Danny Salazar in his return from AAA. I don’t think Salazar is total trash, but I also don’t think he can handle this lineup. Not many people can. Correa is a solid play at $3,700.

Shortstop Mid/Value: Bo Bichette. ($2,700 FD; $3,900 DK) Like his teammate Cavan Biggio he is hitting value in his short MLB tenure. In his first three games as a big leaguer he has six hits, two runs, one HR and one RBI. Not bad kid. He is batting leadoff today against Woj, who I mentioned I do not have 100% confidence in just yet. You also get the small bump of the rostering the leadoff man on the away team. If Bichette will just keep doing what he has been doing, he will keep out heads above water at low ownership.

Third Base Stud/mid: Justin Turner ($3,300; $4,200 DK) is another Dodger bat that hits lefties well (.253 ISO/.357 wOBA/7 homers). He got the day off last game and should be recharged here at home tonight. I want him in my stack against the lefty Luch. I like him slighter better than the $100 more option below so I listed him first.

Third Base Stud/Mid: Renato Nunez($3,400 FD; $4,800 DK) I just like how he is swinging the bat right now and no one ever plays him. In July he hit .304/.576 SLG and has been one of the Orioles key contributors. I don’t mind the bats surrounding him tonight (Mancini, Santander and Villar) either. Contrary to popular belief the Orioles can actually get it together sometimes and I am not scared of targeting Trent Thorton (5.45 ERA) in his first start back from the 10 day DL with an inflamed elbow.

Third Base Honorable Mention: Eugenio Suarez, Josh Donaldson. Third is a loaded position tonight.

Outfield Stud: Michael Brantley ($4,000FD; $4,700 DK) is another Astro I like. He has 14 homers on the season with a .227 ISO/.403 wOBA. He is also a hometown Cleveland kid, and I like those narratives, especially if it is an ELITE bat. Load him up.

Honorable mention: Austin Meadows, Ronald Acuna Jr, Springer

Outfield MidRange: Adam Duvall ($3,100FD; $4,000 DK) Well, well well. Adam Duval; is playing like the true stud we knew him to be in previous seasons. The Braves finally needed him (because of injuries) and called him up recently. Since then he has hit four homer runs in five games. He belongs on a starting roster (somewhere) and he is making his case right now. I like the Braves stack tonight as well. There should be plenty of runners on for Duvall to help “cleanup”. He is batting .520/1.059 .SLG the last seven days. He is a better play on FanDuel because of the price.

Outfield Value: Kristoper Negron ($2,000 FD; $2,900 DK) is a cheap Dodger bat you can grab to help fit you stacks. He is hitting .300 ISO/.358 vs lefties the year. He has two home runs his last two games and is the nut minimum on Fanduel at 2k. Yes Please!

I primary used FanDuel when building optimal MLB DFS lineups.

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5 years ago 0 comment

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