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MLB DFS Aces & Stacks (Apr. 3)

Joel Bartilotta
written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to Monday edition of Aces and Bases for the 2023 season, where I’ll be going through the top MLB DFS Aces and Stacks on DraftKings and Fanduel. 

Tonight we have a nice-sized 11-game slate of MLB DFS to navigate through.  We’re not quite through the first rotation of most team’s staff.  That means pitching will be kind of blah tonight as we are essentially at the back end of most rotations.  The good is that it means plenty of offense.  The bad, is that it means pitching will be really tough to nail down.

Let’s dig and make some money!

MLB DFS Aces – Main

Hunter Brown vs. Detroit Tigers

The Houston Astros will turn the ball over to top prospect Hunter Brown tonight.  In a small cup of tea last year, Brown was really good.  In his 20 innings of work, Brown struck out 27.5% of the batters he faced and did a nice job of limiting hard contact as hitters had a sub-30 % hard-hit rate vs. him.  While we can’t expect him to continue with the .89 ERA that he had last year, he did pitch to an xFIP under 3 last season.  Brown also had a phenomenal chase rate of nearly 32% last season.  Of all the pitchers throwing today, no one outside of Matthew Boyd and his 13 innings of work last year had more hitters chasing. 

This is just not a good Tigers lineup and one that Brown should easily navigate through.  Through the first 3 games of the season, this Tigers lineup has scored just 3 runs.  Not 4, not 5, not 6, just 3 runs.  They are awful and I feel bad that Miguel Cabrera’s last season in baseball will be part of this atrocious lineup.  Houston and Brown are huge favorites tonight.  While nothing is guaranteed, feel confident throwing out Brown tonight.

Drew Rasmussen vs. Washington Nationals

Yes, pitching is so bad that the next pitcher I’m recommending is Drew Rasmussen.  Rasmussen isn’t actually that bad of a pitcher, he’s actually pretty good.  He just doesn’t strike many out.  He had a K rate in 2022 of just over 21%.  That’s not ideal for MLB DFS as K’s are king.  That said, pitching is bad tonight and the pitchers that actually did have high K rates last year are not in good matchups. 

While Rasmussen won’t get many K’s tonight, he should be able to do a great of limiting damage.  This Nationals lineup has been bad to start the year.  Through their first 3 games, they’ve scored just 7 runs for an average of just 2 per game.  Tampa is one of the bigger favorites on the board.  The K’s won’t be there for him tonight, but Rasmussen should be able to go long enough in this one to get the W and pay off his $8.1k DK salary tonight. 

Nestor Cortes vs. Philadelphia Phillies

This is a high-risk/potentially high-reward pick.  Nestor Cortes had by far the best season of his career in 2022.  He set career highs in wins, innings pitched, ERA, and xFIP.  Basically any meaningful stat, Cortes improved last year.  He does a great job of throwing hitters off with his quirky mechanics. 

This is a really good Phillies lineup, but not quite the lineup they expected to have to start the year.  Harper is out recovering from TJ surgery and Hoskins is out for the year after tearing his ACL at the end of Spring Training.  Cortes should be able to neutralize Schwarber tonight as he’s absolutely dominant vs. lefties.  This is low-key a really good spot for Cortes and he should be able to give the Phillies hitters a ton of fits tonight.  He’s risky, but could potentially be the highest-scoring pitcher on the night. 

MLB DFS Stacks – Main

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Washington Nationals

The Tampa Bay Rays get to take on journeyman starter Trevor Williams.  Williams isn’t an awful pitcher, but he’s also not a good pitcher.  He’s an average one at best and one that should struggle with this Tampa lineup tonight.  Williams is a flyball pitcher and if he’s off his game just a smidge tonight, there should be some homers tonight in DC as the weather should be perfect for early April baseball.

Core:  My Tampa core will be built around Wander Franco and Randy Arozarena.  Franco is off to a red-hot start to the 2023 campaign.  Through his first 11 AB, Franco has 7 hits.  Of those 7, 4 have been for extra-base hits.  This is the type of environment tonight where he should continue with this early success in the year.  I also really like Aroz here.  Through his first 3 games, Aroz has already scored 4 runs, while driving in 3.  He’s as big of a part of this offense as anyone.  These 2 guys should dominate tonight

Secondary/Value:  Other guys I really like in this lineup tonight will be both Brandon and Josh Lowe, Yandy Diaz, and Jose Siri.  All of these guys have been productive to start the year.  Both Josh Lowe and Jose Siri make for excellent value plays as they are both under $3k on DK tonight.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Ryan Feltner

The Dodgers get one of the best matchups on the board tonight.  In nearly 100 innings in 2022, Feltner really struggled.  Feltner’s final ERA in 2022 was pushing 6 at 5.83.  While ERA isn’t an end-all, it does show that a pitcher struggled.  He also gave up a massive hard-hit rate at nearly 36%.  That’s one of the worst marks of anyone on the hill tonight and that says a lot considering what we’re working with.  Feltner was pretty much split-neutral in 2022 so I’m not going to be overly concerned with worrying about what side of the plate to attack him with. 

Core:  My Core with the Dodgers tonight will be the 2 guys that hit at the top of the lineup and are 2 of the best hitters in the game, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman.  Neither guy has really blown us out of the water yet, but their day is coming and that will be today in what is a cake matchup for them.  Freeman is my favorite of the two though if you can only afford one of them.  He gets the platoon advantage tonight and has immense upside tonight.

Secondary/Value:  Other bats I like here will be Will Smith, David Peralta, and JD Martinez.  Will Smith is a lot more than I normally like to spend on catchers, but he’s one of the best-hitting catchers in the game and has started out the season strong with 5 RBI and 5 hits in his first 11 AB.  He also has multiple extra-base hits.  Again, he’s pricey, but you could do a whole lot worse with $5k. 

Boston Red Sox vs. Johan Oviedo

The Boston Red Sox offense has started out extremely strong this season.  Through 3 games against the Orioles’ meager pitching staff, they were able to put up 23 runs.  They’ll now get to face another below-average staff in the Pittsburgh Pirates.  Expect more runs from them and expect them often.  Tonight they’ll face off against Johan Oviedo.  While Oviedo wasn’t awful last season, he has shown in his 2 previous stints in the bigs with the Cards that he struggles to get big leaguers out.  I’m going to fully attack him tonight.

Core:  My core with the Red Sox is going to be very clear.  Adam Duvall, Alex Verdugo, Justin Turner, and Rafael Devers.  All 4 guys are off to hot starts, with Duvall, Devers, and Turner all hitting over .400 to start the year.  Outside of Devers, this stack is extremely affordable tonight.  Both Turner and Duvall are under $4k tonight.  They don’t get the platoon advantage, but they are near locks in my lineup.   

Secondary/Value:  The other 2 bats I like here will be Enrique Hernandez and Masataka Yoshida.  Neither guy is a necessity, but if you can fit them in go for it as there should be some runs scored by the Red Sox tonight. 

MLB DFS Summary

We have our first Monday slate of the year and it’s going to be a doozy.  There are limited pitching options but there will be plenty of options for offense.  Expect a high-scoring slate tonight. 

Make sure to drop into Discord where we’re constantly talking about plays for every slate.

Good luck and hope to see you in the green.   

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! 

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MLBDaily Fantasy Sports

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 8/14 (FanDuel Main Slate)

Antonio D'Arcangelis
written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s nine-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

Possibility for a stray shower that could cause a late start or brief delay at Citi Field for Dodgers-Mets, but other than that we don’t have to worry about much other than the usual weirdness in these trying times!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Walker Buehler ($11,500)

The price may prohibit us from getting all the bats we want, but there’s no denying that Buehler offers the safest option for cash games as long s the weather looks like it will hold prior to lock. The Mets are just about middle-of-the-road in K rate in MLB (23.6%), and Buehler’s pitch repertoire all but guarantees they’ll have trouble barreling him up tonight. From a MLB DFS perspective, there’s plenty of reason to steer away on GPPs and single-entry builds where we’d like to get some big bats, but there may be some sneaky stack value that could help us combine Buehler’s high floor with the hitting points necessary to nail down a solid cash game lineup.

NOTE: If you’re willing to assume a little more risk and need the extra savings, Joe Musgrove ($9,600) is also a viable option against a somewhat feckless Arizona lineup.

Best GPP Value: Luis Garcia ($7,900)

Garcia is woefully mispriced on FD and we’re going to take advantage in GPPs. In his MLB DFS Starting Rotation 8.14 article, Adam Strangis points out that Garcia has a great spot for production here, and that’s a DK-oriented piece where he’s actually priced at $9,900, while Buehler is just $10,600. On FD, however, we only need one SP — and Garcia’s average of 31.7 PPG (with duel season highs of 52 points coming in his last start and two of his last four starts) is a huge plus. He’s clearly our best bang for the buck against an Angels lineup that has a few bright spots but has been among the worst in the league over the past 14 days (.214/.282/.314 team slash; .264 team wOBA and 66 wRC+). Single-entry, large-field GPP — maybe even cash games — I’ll be all over Garcia tonight in MLB DFS tonight.

Contrarian GPP Play: Dylan Cease ($8,900)

The Yankees offense is very scary, but they do strike out at a 24.3% rate this season and this game will not be played in a wind tunnel Field of Dreams where any hard hit fly ball ends up in the corn. Cease is projected for over 30 FD points and he could easily exceed the 40-point mark if he can avoid the walks and big blast (he’s made big strides in 2021, lowering his BB/9% to 3.69 from 5.25 in a tumultuous 2020). He should carry low ownership against the Bronx Bombers and pitching on his home field should help a bit, as he’s posted a .267 wOBA on the South Side of Chicago, compared to .301 in road games. This is a risky play but Cease does have upside in this matchup if he can keep the Yankees off base and limit the HR damage to solo blasts.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Los Angeles Dodgers

Taijuan Walker hasn’t been too good since the end of June, yielding a whopping .464 wOBA since the All-Star break and an almost hilarious .333/.406/.711 slash line to opposing hitters. And now, folks, he gets to face the Los Angeles Dodgers! We can focus our attention on the lefties here. making a point to include Cody Bellinger ($3,600) — who’s really been heating up — along with Corey Seager ($3,200), Max Muncy ($3,700) and finish off our four-man stack with RHB A.J. Pollock ($3,100), who’s still relatively cheap. Trea Turner is also worth a look, but he’s expensive at $4,000, and if Albert Pujols ($2,200) starts he’ll be a bargain.

GPP Value Stack: San Francisco Giants

I profited quite a bit from having almost 100% of Austin Slater ($2,500) and Wilmer Flores ($3,000) last night in the late slate contests, and we want to take advantage of their soft prices and crazy splits against LHP again tonight, as they’ll be facing Rockies SP Kyle Freeland, a southpaw with a .364 wOBA (and nine HR allowed this season in 52.0 total IP) against right-handed batters. Throw in cleanup hitter Darin Ruf ($2,700) and (future HOFer?) Buster Posey ($3,300) and you’ve got a solid and inexpensive four-man stack, viable for cash or GPP. 3B/OF.UTIL eligible Kris Bryant is also worth a look and makes sense to mix in if you can afford him at $3,900, and we have another cheap option in Donovan Solano ($2,500), who’s having an excellent second half (.307/.381/.453).

GPP Stack #2: Houston Astros

The Astros could also be popular tonight, and I’m fine starting my builds with Michael Brantley ($3,000), Yordan Alvarez ($3,900), Kyle Tucker ($3,200) and GPP wunderkind Aledmys Diaz ($2,700). Sure, we can squeeze in Jose Altuve ($3,800) if we can afford him and there’s no reason to bet against Carlos Correa ($3,500) and value option Chas McCormick ($2,300) if he gets into the lineup. Angels SP Jaime Barria has been decent since returning from Triple-A in late July, but this Astros lineup is just too good at making contact and barreling up baseballs. Don’t forget to mix in a stack or two in your GPPs.

Make sure to keep an eye on the starters as lineups are released. Good luck tonight, and please utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 8/7 (FanDuel Main Slate)

Antonio D'Arcangelis
written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s 10-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

Some light rain in Baltimore, where I’m not looking at pitchers anyway, and some normal pop-up chances in Atlanta and Cincy, but nothing tumultuous that could PPD a game we’re featuring. Giddyup!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Julio Urias ($10,000)

Urias may not have the highest upside on the slate, but both he and a pitcher to be named later offer the best chance at safety in cash games. His solid July numbers (2.30 ERA, .264 wOBA, 20% K rate, 5.6% BB rate) portend a more steady stretch in the season’s second half. The scuffling Angels have hit just .216/.271/.342 over the past week and this should not be considered a get-right spot for the halos. I’ll be plugging Urias in about half my cash and a third of my GPP lines tonight and moving on to some value stacks.

Best GPP Value: Yu Darvish ($9,600)

Last week we discussed how Darvish has struggled in July and had a good spot against the Rockies and he got lit up (including yielding a HR to the opposing pitcher, German Marquez) for 5 ER — though he did rack up 8 Ks and 27 FD points. This time we have reason to expect he can improve on those numbers and hit the 40+ threshold we’re looking for in GPPs. Adam Strangis discusses Darvish’s matchup in the 8/7 Starting Rotation article and as usual it’s a must-read. Darvish has been a reverse-splits pitcher in 2021 because of the soft contact he induces against LHB, and with the D-Backs’ featuring a slew of lefty hitters and the team K rate at 23.6% (24.4% vs. RHP), he’s once again in a great spot for GPPs.

Value Cash/Single-Entry GPP Play: Charlie Morton ($8,700)

At one point, a matchup against the Nationals would have scared me off a guy like Morton, and there may still be some oblivious DFS folks who don’t take advantage of what we’re really getting on this slate with the veteran hurler in this spot. That’s a solid floor of around 30-35 FD points and the opportunity to notch 55-60+ points if he hits his ceiling. Over his past nine starts dating back to June 17, Morton has at least 25 FD points in every one, with four in the 45+ point range and three at 52, 54 and 64 FD points. The Nats have been decimated by injuries and trades and have only or two hitters that really frighten me, so I’ll have some shares of Morton in both cash and GPPs where I may need the extra $1,000 to $1,300 to squeeze in a potent stack.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Colorado Rockies

This idea that we don’t have to tell you to play hitters n Coors has been around for quite a while, but some days you need to reiterate just how high the team total for Colorado (or in many cases their opponent) is. Today’s the home team is in a really great spot against a talented but unproven starter in Jesus Luzardo that may not be ready for the Mile-High treatment. There’s a very good avenue to some decent value in fastball-mashing Brendan Rogers ($3,500) and Elias Diaz ($3,400) before we have to pay a premium for Trevor Story ($4,300) and C.J. Cron ($4,000), and we could always mix in a guy like Yonathan Daza ($3,000). It’s not a slate we need to overthink, and getting exposure to the Rockies is a good idea on a slate where they won’t garner that high of the ownership share.

GPP Stack: Cincinnati Reds

They’ve been RED-hot as of late and just got Mike Moustakas back from the IL Damn near everybody in the lineup got in on the action last night, and now we’ve got a roster chock full of left-handed hitters looking to annihilate Mitch Keller and exceed the massive projected 6+ run total the Cincy crew is carrying into the slate. Moustakas is a ridiculous bargain at $2,500, while some of the usual suspects — Joey Votto ($4,100), Jesse Winker ($4,100), Jonathan India ($3,700) and Nick Castellanos ($3,500) — still feel underpriced somehow. Throw in Kyle Farmer ($2,900), who’s been on absolute fire in the second half (.421/.470/.671 slash line, 1.141 OPS with a 200 wRC+), and lefty Tyler Naquin ($2,900) — and you’ve got plenty of options to choose from.

Contrarian Stack: Cleveland Indians

With the majority of ownership heading to the Rockies, Reds and likley the Dodgers and Braves, I’m more than happy to give the future Guardians a chance to put up galactic numbers against a weak Detroit southpaw (Tyler Alexander) and bullpen. Getting exposure to the top four — Myles Straw ($2,600), Amed Rosario ($2,900), Jose Ramirez ($3,700), Franmil Reyes ($3,500) is optimal, and we can take a few shots with Harold Ramirez (2,400), Bobby Bradley ($2,500) and Oscar Mercado ($2,500) if we need some bargain plays. If we want to pay up for a top arm and fade Coors in some lineups, there’s a few cheap and potent bats on the Detroit end (facing the hittable Eli Morgan) to make this a full game stack! Let’s go DET-CLE!!

Make sure to keep an eye on the starters as lineups are released. Good luck tonight, and please utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

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MLBDaily Fantasy Sports

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 6/26 (FanDuel Main Slate)

Antonio D'Arcangelis
written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s four-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:15PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

Weather is not a huge issue, but this is a risky slate for cash games and I’d highly recommend sticking to GPPs and lower-cost single-entry.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Nathan Eovaldi ($8,200)

The options are not great. We really can’t look to Julio Urias right now with him maxing out at 5 Ks in each of his last five starts (perhaps it’s the Bauer Effect rearing its ugly head) and Frankie Montas cannot be trusted facing a lefty-heavy Giants lineup. I’m a Yankee fan, which makes recommending Eovaldi in this spot especially tough, but the price is reasonable for a guy who has 10K potential against the Bombers and their 24.7% K rate (25.2% against RHP). Facing this lineup can be a dangerous spot for ANY pitcher, so I don’t think this slate portends well for large cash game investments, and there is a stiff wind blowing out toward the monster as well. But given what he did against the Yanks on June 4 in the Bronx (6.0 IP, 0 BB, 7 K, 1 ER and 46 FD points), he’s probably got as much upside as anyone. Adam Strangis makes mention of him as an option in the 6/26 Starting Rotation piece today, so if you need further information, that’s always a good source.

Best GPP Value: Dinelson Lamet ($7,500)

It would be great if he could somehow approach the 100-pitch mark, in which case he could easily pay off this bargain price. Lamet might have a lower floor than some of the other high-dollar options, but the upside is there at his still-discounted price and he’s coming off his first win and 7Ks. Again, I can’t stress enough how risky this entire slate is, but Lamet’s reward could slightly outweigh the downside. He should get the necessary run support for another W, and there’s an outside shot he crests the 5.0 inning mark tonight and possibly gets 6.0 in to qualify him for the QS bonus.

Contrarian GPP Play: Jordan Montgomery ($7,000)

We’re going to have to take some chances on this slate, and rolling out the enigmatic lefty hurler at Fenway might be the key to unlocking the slate. Or, and hear me out, you can stack against the guy in a few GPP lineups to hedge your DFS approach. He’s regained some of the effectiveness his changeup and curveball once had in his early days, and using them to keep these Boston hitters off balance. His 3.62 FIP is among the lowest on the slate, we know he’s got as much upside as anyone in these four games, and the Boston projected total is pretty high, so we know he won’t be popular.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: San Diego Padres vs. ARI RHP Merrill Kelly

The Dodgers, Red Sox and Yankees are all viable options in the spend-up category, but let’s look a little more closely at the Padres, who are red-hot at the plate. Fernando Tatis, Jr. ($4,700) is destroying baseballs right now (4-5 with 3 HRs and 65.8 FD points last night) and I don’t see any reason to not continue using him with Manny Machado ($4,300), Jake Cronenworth ($3,300) and either Eric Hosmer ($2,700), Tommy Pham ($3,100) or even Trent Grisham ($3,000). This lineup is filled with speed and power — the biggest contributors to offensive success in DFS, so make sure you get exposure to the Friars tonight.

Value Stack: San Francisco Giants vs. OAK RHP Frankie Montas

The Giants match up extremely well against Montas, who’s been struggling a bit lately. The top five hitters include a bevy of cheap bats who have enormous upside tonight: LaMonte Wade ($2,700), Mike Yastrzemski ($3,500), Buster Posey ($3,100) Alex Dickerson ($2,300), Brandon Crawford ($2,800). They could work in conjunction with the more expensive Dodgers or Padres, especially if you’re fading the Yankees-Red Sox.

Contrarian Stack: Boston Red Sox vs. LHP Jordan Montgomery

First of all, don’t freak out. I know I recommended Montgomery, and while there’s no way I’d stack the Sox and use Monty in the SP slot, we’ve got to build lineups assuming more than one narrative today, and it’s possible the Sox can give us what we need in a stack while Montgomery gets us 30-40 FD points behind a barrage of Ks. The hitting conditions seem favorable, and while Monty is generally a ground ball pitcher over the course of his career, the fly balls he gives up tend to go pretty far. If Michael Chavis leads off he’s a great bargain option at $2,300, and while lefty vs. lefty Alex Verdugo ($2,900) doesn’t get me excited, the projected 3-7 hitters are all in play: J.D. Martinez ($4,100), Xander Bogaerts ($3,700), Rafael Devers ($3,900), Kike Hernandez ($3,300) and Hunter Renfroe ($2,700).

Good luck tonight, and make sure you utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

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