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MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 6/19 (FanDuel Main Slate)

Antonio D'Arcangelis
written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s seven-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:15PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

The rain from Tropical Storm Claudette is seriously threatening to PPD the Braves-Cards game, so we’ll leave that off our list of targets. The rest of the games have just a few possible delays sprinkled in, so just keep an eye on SP for those games.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Framber Valdez ($10,200)

I’m not all that enamored with Walker Buehler’s strikeout numbers this season, and Lance Lynn is squaring up against an Astros lineup that just doesn’t strike out very much. Both are more expensive than Valdez and have about the same projected FD total, so Framber seems like the best option with the most upside in a home game that could turn into a pitcher’s duel. He’s carrying a 1.42 ERA that’s much lower than his 3.48 FIP but the xFIP is just 3.01. There is some additional reason for concern given that his 90.9% LOB% is pretty bloated, but he should fare well if he can keep the White Sox off the base paths today.

Best GPP Value: Patrick Sandoval ($7,800)

Sandoval has made great strides in the past year, mixing in a solid changeup to go along with a fledgling four-seamer that Adam Strangis highlights in his excellent, must-read 6/19 Starting Rotation piece. While I don’t agree with his choices of Buehler and Lynn before Valdez today, the writeup on Sandoval deftly addresses how much of a great leverage play Sandoval could be in tournaments tonight, especially with some folks stacking the cheap Tigers bats as a contrarian move in GPPs. Sandoval is a decent by-the-book DFS play on FD because of his effective recent starts and the fact that the Angels are -220 favorite and the Tigers have the highest team K rate (27.6%) in baseball.

Contrarian GPP Play: Vladimir Gutierrez ($7,600)

Gutierrez has been awfully sharp in four outings this season, and while the Padres are not a team we like to play pitchers against, the rookie righty has yet to give up more than two earned runs in any start and already has two quality starts to his record in 2021. It’s important to point out that while the sample size is still very small, it’s possible major league hitters are still making an adjustment to the youngster’s stuff and what has been a very effective fastball. Gutierrez works in a slider, curve and change that have been average, but with injuries abounding in the Reds rotation, he’s making a play to stay there. As a GPP play, he’s got upside, along with huge bust potential, so steer clear of him in cash games and single-entry builds. Both he and the befuddling Austin Gomber (who’s pitched great in Coors Field this year) are interesting leverage plays on this slate.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Los Angeles Angels at DET RHP Wily Peralta

The Angels have a .377 team wOBA in the past seven games, and they have some monster bats in Shohei Ohtani ($4,400), Jared Walsh ($3,800) and Justin Upton ($3,400), who has thrived in the leadoff spot. Mix in “FanDuel fourth-man” power options Max Stassi ($3,600), Taylor Ward ($2,900) and the possible return of Anthony Rendon ($3,700) and you’ve got the building blocks of a slate-breaking stack.

Value Stack: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. ARI RHP Matt Peacock

We can call the Dodgers a value stack on this slate because they have a few lefty hitters that qualify for that designation tonight including Gavin Lux ($2,900) and Zach McKinstry ($2,400). Using one or both of them should allow you to fit in two or three of the big bats: Mookie Betts ($4,200), Justin Turner ($3,900), a rejuvenated Albert Pujols ($3,10)and Chris Taylor, who is still overpriced a bit at $3,400 (unless he’s moved back up in the order). Will Smith ($2,700) and A.J. Pollock ($2,600) are also cheap and remain in the conversation for Dodgers stacks.

Contrarian Stack: Tampa Bay Rays vs. RHP Logan Gilbert

The Rays aren’t typically a contrarian stack, but they are today, especially with a Coors Field game on the slate. I’ll defer to the Discord chatter a bit on the specifics of the best Tampa Bay builds since they LOVE the Rays in there, but I’m starting my stacks with Austin Meadows ($3,800) and Randy Arozarena ($4,000), mixing in a few shares each of Joey Wendle ($3,100), Ji-Man Choi ($2,700) and Manuel Margot ($3,000).

Good luck tonight, and make sure you utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

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Collector’s Corner: 2021 MLB Breakouts – AL Hitter Trading Cards

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

This week’s Collector’s Corner takes an early look at some possible 2021 breakouts in the AL – and the trading cards to collect from this bunch.

By now, everyone knows to collect Luis Robert trading cards, but there’s a huge crop of baseball prospects whose trading cards could see a huge bump in 2021 and beyond if they have breakout seasons. Here are nine such players in the AL you should be stocking in your collection.

NOTE: I’m using my Cash/GPP/Punt system again since it translates well to the DFS/trading card investment comparison.

Breakout Trading Cards – Cash

Wander Franco, TB SS

I shouldn’t have to say much about Franco – who’s now the top prospect in baseball – but since he hasn’t played since 2019, he’s flying a bit under the radar.

Franco does everything well and is projected for about 90 games at the major league level in 2021 – a call-up that will immediately cause a bump in his rookie trading cards. You can buy 2019 1st Bowman #BP100 PSA GEM MINT 10 rookies for $100-125 apiece, and parallels and autos – while expensive – remain excellent long-term investments. I’m happy to have a sharp 2020 Bowman Chrome Sapphire #BCP-1 (second year) in my collection, but I’m working on adding some of his rookies.

He’s not slated for a spot in the Rays lineup on day one of the 2021 season, but once he’s here he may be here to stay.

It’s his second year, but I love the look of this card. The Bowman Chrome Sapphire is one of my favorite products.

                                                                                                                        

Ryan Mountcastle, BAL OF

Mountcastle had an auspicious 2020 debut for the Birds, and he did an excellent radio interview where he talks about the transition to the majors and how he fared in his rookie season (“I held my own”). The multi-positional fielder – who played mostly outfield for Baltimore – posted a solid .333/.386/.492 slash line with five homers and a 141 wRC+ in 35 games.

It’s a small smaple, for sure, but I love guys who can play all over the diamond and remain entrenched in the everyday lineup, and Mountcastle is one of those guys. THE BAT, ZIPS and Steamer projections for 2021 all have him hitting over 20 homers with a wRC+ north of 100.

You can pick up graded 2015 rookies for a reasonable price, and he’s a hitter who’ll be smack dab in the middle of a potent group of young hitters, so his 2021 production could well exceed expectations.

Bobby Dalbec, BOS 1B/3B

This guy can mash. He hit eight homers in just 92 ABs for the Red Sox in his 2020 debut, and as a corner infielder he should consistently find a way into the Boston lineup. The 42.4% K rate is a bit disconcerting, but as far as raw power metrics goes, his .338 ISO stands out as an obscene number that points to 40+ HR upside for the 2016 draft pick.

2021 projections from the aforementioned sources are unanimous in assuming 25+ HRs for the upcoming season, and his path to 30+ is only clouded by how often he can make things happen and avoid a prolonged slump at the dish.

A natural third baseman, his 2016 Bowman Chrome Draft rookie trading cards are still dirt cheap, and he’s a solid investment in a huge market city – even if he’s a guy who strikes out almost 200 times in a 15-game season.

This PSA 10 Dalbec in a rare blue refractor parallel auto can be had for less than $1K — a price that could double or triple in value if he has a monster season in Boston.

Breakout Trading Cards – GPP

Andrew Vaughn, CWS 1B

With Robert off the list and getting regular MLB at-bats, Vaughn is now the No. 1 prospect in the White Sox system, and while he’s not expected to start the 2021 season in the majors, he’s just 22 years old slated for a mid-season arrival.

There’s not a clear path to regular playing time in the field just yet, but Vaughn could become the White Sox DH for a large chunk of the 2021 season, which could be a difficult adjustment for someone used to playing the field.

Still – he was so good in big league campo after he was drafted in 2019 that he was almost brought up to the majors in 2020. While his 2019 trading cards are pretty hot, there’s still plenty of room for growth. I really hate the 2019 Bowman design, but that’s his first Bowman card. I did manage to pull a couple of his 2020 Bowman Chrome Mega Box Mojo Refractors, but it’s important I cave and just grab some of his rookies.

My buddy Chris Gilmore over at Vintage Breaks owns this beautiful PSA 10 Vaughn rookie in the 2019 Bowman Sapphire Edition. He shows it off once in a while during his VB South breaks on YouTube.

Jo Adell, LAA OF

Adell didn’t find much success as a rookie outfielder for the Angels in 2020, but he’s still 21 years old and has the tools and talent to bounce back in his sophomore campaign.

He may start the 2021 season in the Triple-A, and there’s a few hard-hitting outfielders who could complicate his return to The Show – but all five-tool prospects are worth some additional development if it increases their confidence. Adell was clearly rushed into the bigs last year – probably because he’s a high-energy guy and they wanted him to play baseball instead of languishing in the pandemic-induced hiatus that may have stunted the growth of an untold number of MLB prospects.

As a result, his 2017 rookie trading cards – even PSA 10s – are very inexpensive for an organizational No. 1. He’s worth adding to your collection and seeing what happens in the coming season.

Sean Murphy, OAK C

Murphy has the offensive and defensive chops to be an All-Star major league catcher for a long time, and we’ve already seen a little of what he’s capable of at the big-league level.

A legitimately great defender at a premium position who looks a lot like a poor man’s Buster Posey when it comes to his pitch-framing and solid bat, Murphy’s 2020 debut was promising – with a .233/.364/.457 slash line, seven HRs and a 132 wRC+ in just 43 games. That stretch earned him 1.5 WAR and an everyday spot in the Athletics’ lineup.

His 2018 Bowman Chrome rookie trading cards are still a huge bargain, and you can pick up a PSA 9 MINT auto rookie for under $100.

Breakout Trading Cards – Punt

Nolan Jones, CLE 3B

Like Dalbec, Jones was drafted in 2016, and his rookie trading cards are also still very affordable. He’s also got immense raw power, as seen by the .213 ISO he posted in 2019 for the team’s Double-A affiliate. Unlike Dalbec, he hasn’t played since 2019 since he wasn’t called up to the bigs.

Jones is now the No. 1 prospect for Cleveland and may or may not get his shot in 2021 – but we’ve seen hitters like him arrive to fill a lineup gap and just never leave. There’s probably less long-term risk involved than Dalbec, but he may not provide immediate dividends.

Evan White, SEA 1B

Kyle Lewis made a huge splash in 2020 and Julio Rodriguez may be ready to arrive by late 2021 or early 2022, but White will be in the Mariners lineup on opening day. His 2017 Bowman Chrome rookie autos are selling (raw) for low prices and PSA 10s can be had in the $100-200 range.

White struggled at the dish as a rookie in 2020 (.176/.252/.346 slash with a 41.6% K rate and just eight dingers in 200+ ABs), but THE BAT and Steamer projections have him improving drastically in 2021; only ZIPS has him hitting fewer than 20 homers with an average under .230.

For $140, this could be a steal if White can make more contact and hit a few more homers in 2021.

Nick Solak, TEX 2B

Big Nick is slated to bate out of the No. 5 slot in the Rangers 2021 lineup, and while he’s on his third organization since being drafted by the Yankees in 2016, his 2020 Topps trading cards earned the RC logo and are very cheap, very good investments.

Solak had a great MLB debut in 2019, took a step back in 2020, and is poised for a big 2021. His rookies have him on the Yankees, so that may not hurt their ability to fetch big prices as much as say 2015 Bowman Draft Mike Yastrzemski rookies in Orioles gear. He’s not a great defender and isn’t going to be a guy who hits 30+ homers or steals 30 bases, but he’s got 20-15 upside and a solid enough bat to move the needle on his trading cards in the next couple of years.

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MLB

GPP MLB Stacks: Winning Edge for August 31

written by

This report will provide recommended DFS stack options for today’s nine-game main slate. I will also include my favorite pitching picks.

All plays are listed in order of preference. Please check back between 5-6 PM EST as some players can receive rest days or get limited at bats especially as we get closer to the postseason. Make sure you stay up to date with all our favorite plays on our Premium Gold DFS Cheat Sheet as well.

Teams with Highest IRT

GPP MLB Stack: Pittsburgh Pirates

vs. RHP Tim Melville (COL): 7.50 Runs

I’m just going to start off my saying I’m really not impressed with what either team has to offer in Coors field tonight. Tim Melville has two starts this season so it’s hard to overlook his performance in the past even though he holds 0.75 ERA at the moment. His pitch movements and velocity look right on par with league averages and he utilizes a lot of slider (56%), a breaking pitch that helped Agrazal limit damage to three earned runs last night. If you did not read my article yesterday I talked about some of the more effective pitches in Coors and breaking pitches statistically are. Not a full fade here and once again I’m not looking at Melville as a viable pitching option, but I think he can limit damage here if he can keep up with that high GB rate through two starts. The Pirates are slashing .325 wOBA, .170 ISO, and 100 WRC+ for the month of August.

Preferred Plays: Josh Bell ($4400 FD|$5700 DK), Starling Marte ($4300 FD|$5800 DK), Bryan Reynolds ($3900 FD|$5600 DK), and Jose Osuna ($3300 FD|$5400 DK).

GPP MLB Stack: Colorado Rockies

vs. RHP Joe Musgrove (PIT): 6.50 Runs

Same applies as I talked about with the Pirates. Musgrove is not very good but neither is Colorado with their .160 ISO and 78 WRC+. I will have a share or two of Coors just to cover me but I’m just not sold.

Preferred Stack: Charlie Blackmon ($4500 FD|$5700 DK), Nolan Arenado ($4600 FD|$5400 DK), Trevor Story ($4100 FD|$5600 DK), and Sam Hilliard ($3100 FD|$4100 DK).

GPP MLB Stack: Atlanta Braves

vs. RHP Reynaldo Lopez (CWS): 5.75 Runs

There are a few games I like today but this is probably my favorite. The Braves face Lopez who is hot and cold at times, but overall has had an “ok” year. Lopez doesn’t have a lot of variation to his pitches, he throws a ton of four seam fast ball and the Braves have seven players in their line slugging .500 or better to the four seamer. Atlanta has let us down on a few occasions but I’m willing to overlook that today. The Braves are slashing to a .328 wOBA, .189 ISO, and 101 WRC+ in the month of August.

Preferred Stack: Josh Donaldson ($3400 FD|$4500 DK), Ronald Acuna Jr. ($4000 FD|$5000 DK), Freddie Freeman ($4200 FD|$5500 DK), and Dansby Swanson ($2900 FD|$4300 DK). Matt Joyce ($2400 FD|$4000 DK) (VALUE)

Other Teams I Have Interest in

GPP MLB Stack: Baltimore Orioles

vs. RHP Jorge Lopez (KCR): 5.00 Runs

Preferred Plays: Renato Nunez ($3300 FD|$4400 DK), Trey Mancini ($3600 FD|$4500 DK), Jonathan Villar ($3500 FD|$5100 DK), and Anthony Santander ($3000 FD|$4300 DK). Hanser Alberto ($2900 FD|$4000 DK) offers some salary relief as well.

GPP MLB Stack: Washington Nationals

vs. RHP Pablo Lopez (MIA): 5.75 Runs

Preferred Plays: Juan Soto ($4000 FD|$5300 DK), Anthony Rendon ($4400 FD|$5300 DK), Adam Eaton ($3600 FD|$4600 DK), and Matt Adams ($2800 FD|$4300 DK).

GPP MLB Stack: Boston Red Sox

vs. LHP Dillon Peters (LAA): UPDATE

Preferred Plays: Rafael Devers ($4300 FD|$5600 DK), J.D. Martinez ($4500 FD|$5400 DK), Mookie Betts ($3800 FD|$5200 DK), Xander Bogaerts ($3100 FD|$5200 DK). Sam Travis ($2600 FD|$3600 DK) and Christian Vazquez ($2900 FD|$4000 DK) are also good value plays.

Pitching

  1. Stephen Strasburg RHP (WSH): 2.75 Runs
  2. Dylan Bundy RHP (BAL): 4.00 Runs
  3. Brock Burke LHP (TEX): UPDATE

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