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Kansas City Royals

Welcome to the first Sunday of the 2021 baseball season. For those celebrating Easter, Happy Easter! For those celebrating Passover, we made it!

The focus today will be on Fanduel’s main slate which cuts off right before the Dodgers/Rockies game. So yes, we have a non Coors main slate to look forward to.

Today’s slate is void of aces. In looking at pitching, there’s no definitive path to success. There are a couple of pitchers that are ‘pretty good’, but not entirely safe. Then there are pitchers that are going to be high risk/high reward. I’m going high risk/high reward today. I’m feeling frisky!

Let’s dig in to today’s slate!

MLB DFS: The ‘Aces’

The first pitcher I’m looking at today comes with some risk. Ian Anderson ($9k) faces off against a tough Phillies lineup. Anderson pitched to a 1.95 ERA last year which was a run and a half better than his xFIP. Although a 3.45 xFIP is good, you can’t expect to Anderson to perform as well as he did last year. He did have a k/9 of 11.41, which of all the pitchers going today would rank numero uno. 3 factors have me leaning towards Anderson. a 52.5% GB rate, a 27.5% FB rate, and a 25.90% hard hit rate last year. Those numbers combined can help and did help him limit damage. Not the safest play, but I am a fan.

The next pitcher I’m looking at is Michael Pineda ($7.3K). You know exactly what you’re getting with Pineda at this point in his career. Someone that’s going to limit damage, but not rack up a bunch of k’s. Pineda only threw 26 innings last year. In that short sample he kept hitters to a 23.2% hard hit rate and he did it by getting them to chase with a chase rate of 39%. He had a k rate 8.44/9 so there’s limited upside. But on a day where there just isn’t much in the way of pitching, sometimes you have to play it safe. This Brewers lineup is not the same lineup it was a couple of years ago. After Yelich, there just isn’t much.

The final pitcher I’m going to recommend is Tarik Skubal ($6k). Here’s my high risk/high reward play. Last season he pitched to a 10.41 k/9. He did this by throwing gas last year. This off-season he added some new pitches to his repertoire. He is a fly ball pitcher so be a little cautious. He had a 54% fb rate last year. With that being said though, the Indians lineup is watered down. You have Ramirez and then not much.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Of the 8 games in today’s main slate, 3 have an implied total greater than 5. One of those teams I’m going to eliminate from my thought process as I just don’t see the Red Sox being able to do that much damage. Their lineup just isn’t very good and we have seen what Means and Harvey did to them the last couple of days. This could very well bight me as Bruce Zimmermann was brutal last year. But until the Red Sox can prove they can hit, I’m staying clear.

The first team I’m looking to stack today are the Royals. Jordan Lyles was horrific last year. He pitched to a 5.92 xFIP and had a swinging strike rate of 6.7%. He doesn’t miss many bats. I’m going 1-3 here, maybe 1-5 depending on how the lineup shakes out today. Merrifield ($4k), Benintendi ($2.9k), and Santana ($3.3k). Do keep an eye on the lineup though as Benintendi did leave the game early yesterday.

The next spot is the good ole Bronx. The Blue Jays are giving TJ Zeuch a spot start today. Although he is predominantly a ground ball pitcher, he doesn’t miss many at bats. He’s got low k stuff. Not missing many at bats is normally a recipe for disaster against a tough lineup like the Yankees. Judge ($4k), Hicks ($3.2K), Stanton ($3.8K), and Torres ($3.8k) is where I’m leaning with this stack.

My final stack recommendation is the Cardinals. Jeff Hoffman was bad last year. He pitched to a 5.39 xFIP. He had a FB rate of almost 39%. And a hard hit rate of almost 43%. Feel confident in rolling with Arenado ($3.8k) and Goldschmidt ($4k). Both have career woba’s of over .368 against right handed pitching. Cardinals fans are going to have a great summer with these 2.

MLB DFS Sunday Funday Summary

Keep an eye on Wrigley. There’s currently no line on the game and that could be due to the winds. If it’s blowing out, load em up. If it’s blowing in, consider looking towards Zach Davies as one of your pitchers.

While I think every slate is fun, this slate has the makings of a super fun slate. This is a slate where offense will reign supreme.

Good luck and hope to see you at the top of the leaderboards!

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This Sunday September 1st slate is all about landing the right bats. Follow my stud and value plays and lock in the MLB DFS Picks of Destiny.

Check out our Data Driven Projections for FanDuel Hitters for Premium Gold Members.

Todays picks are listed in order of preference, not price.

David Jones won 100K on FanDuel! Read about it here!

Catcher: UPDATE: NOT STARTING Mitch Garver ($3,300 FD) has five hits and three home runs in his last two games. He is slashing .429/ 1.143 ISO over the last seven days. He takes on the Detroit Tigers starter Spencer Turnbull and his deceptive 4.18 ERA. As the season has progressed, Turnbull has gotten less reliable. In August he touts a 6.55 ERA. He has given up at least one (usually more) runs in every game he has pitched in since June 11th. In his last eight innings he has given up nine runs. Garver is in a fantastic MLB DFS spot to keep his elite run alive.

Catcher Value: Jason Castro, Robinson Chirinos

First Base: Yuli Gurriel ($3,700 FD) Here is a reasonably priced Astro for MLB DFS. Gurriel is hitting .247 ISO/.386 wOBA with 22 homers vs righties. He is En Fuego right now and on a nine game hit streak. He should be batting sixth behind five fantastic Astro bats. Gurriel should easily be able to reach double digit FanDuel points today with upside for over 20 if he can send one over the wall. Spoiler alert; he can.

First Base Pivot: UPDATE NOT STARTING: Mike Ford, Matt Olsen

Second Base: Whit Merrifield ($3,400 FD) is my favorite second baseman to exceed MLB DFS value today. He is underpriced and gets and fantastic matchup vs one of my favorite pitchers to target in Aaron Brooks (and the Baltimore Bullpen). Brooks has a 5.79 ERA and gets blown up almost every game he pitches in. Throw out his last start in Washington where he shutout the Nats. I watched that whole game and I blame the Nationals lack of enthusiasm more than Brooks suddenly “figuring it out”. Before last game, Brooks has only scoring over 31 fantasy points ONE TIME since April Fools Day (not joking). Royals are my favorite stack on the day and Whit is going to help lead the charge.

Second Base Pivot: Jose Altuve

Third Base: DJ LaMahieu ($4,200 FD) is on a hot streak with multiple hits in four of his last six games. He hits .286 ISO/.477 wOBA on the season vs lefties and gets to face Sean Manaea this afternoon in Yankee Stadium. Manaea is coming off the 60 day IL after shoulder surgery and I wouldn’t expect him to last six innings here. He has looked sharp in is rehab starts in Triple-A but facing this bomb hitting Yankees squad will be a much different task. LaMahieu should be batting lead off and has not put up a goose egg in his last eight starts. He feels safe with big MLB DFS upside today.

Third Base Pivot: Miguel Sano, Hunter Dozier, Matt Chapman

Shortstop: Alex Bregman ($4,200 FD) I really like the Astros today but the price of all the bats is making it difficult to stack them. He hits .259 ISO/.395 wOBA with 21 home runs. He is batting cleanup and no matter which pitcher Toronto chooses to follow Font (Gaviglio or Godley), Bregman is a solid play at shortstop. He is always contributing. Bregman has not put up a zero in the box score since August 2nd. That alone is impressive. He is safe.

Shortstop Pivots: Adalberto Mondesi, Trea Turner, Marcus Semien

Outfield: Aaron Judge ($4,400 FD) is possibly the hottest hitter in baseball right now. He has a home run in six of his last eight games. He is absolutely locked in. He faces Sean Manaea in his first start since his shoulder surgery. Manaea is not a terrible pitcher but Judge is an elite bat that should be able to take advantage of him, AND the Oakland A’s bullpen. Lock in Judge and figure the rest out.

Outfield: Max Kepler ($3,500 FD) is way to cheap on FanDuel. He should easily be priced over 4K today. He has 26 home runs on the season vs righties and hits .293 ISO/.359 wOBA. He has multiple hits in his last two games in Detroit and at minimum he is getting on base again. The Twins as a team have put up 30 runs combined in their last three games. Today they keep their foot on the gas and Kepler gets his.

Outfield: Jorge Soler ($3,500 FD) is hitting .303 ISO/.373 wOBA vs righties this season and has 33 homers. He goes against my fave pitcher to target in MLB DFS, Aaron Brooks. Easy choice, especially at that price.

Outfield Pivots: Houston Outfield (Springer, Alvarez, Brantley)

I primary used FanDuel when building optimal MLB DFS lineups.

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