Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s eight-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:10PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!
The biggest weather threat is in Cincinnati for the Tigers-Reds game, which if it plays will have to be through heavy rain. If the forecasts changes we can consider the Reds hitters against LHP Matthew Boyd, but this game has a good shot at a PPD so it might just be too risky even for bats.
There isn’t an SP play on the main slate without risk, but Valdez offers the best shot at a decent floor with GPP-winning upside. He’s likely where a lot of folks will be starting their cash game builds. If he can avoid the big blow from Fernando Tatis Jr. and navigate through the rest of this lefty-heavy lineup, I’m confident he’ll be sitting somewhere in that 29-46 point range where he’s lived comfortably in his last seven starts. Valdez sports a relatively pedestrian 22.4% K rate this season, but he’s posted at least 6 Ks in five of his last six starts and the Padres don’t necessarily destroy lefty pitching. This slate isn’t pretty for starting pitching, but Valdez is likely the best we’ve got.
The White Sox starting rotation has taken some hits lately, with both Lane Lynn and Lucas Giolito on the shelf — at least temporarily. If Tony La Russa weren’t so old school, I’d be worried about Lopez going the requisite five innings he needs to pick up the win, but if “Pound-em-down” Tony says Lopez is starting, he’s probably willing to let him go 5-6 IP, which should be plenty long enough to make value against the Royals. Lopez had 42 FD points in his last start (against the Cubs) on August 27, striking out 7 in 5.0 IP and notching a win. We could see similar results tonight.
As WinDaily’s Adam Strangis points out in his MLB DFS Starting Rotation 9.4 article, Musgrove worked some magic against the Angels his last time on the bump, and gets another tough test facing the Astros — a team that just doesn’t strike out very much and mashes it around the yard (lowest K-rate in baseball, top three in wOBA, wRC+, OPS, and OBP). Musgrove is pitching this game in his team’s NL park, so that helps, and the most recent performance by the Astros against an ancient Jake Arrieta shows that at least they aren’t red-hot heading into the matchup. Both of the implied team totals in this game are under 4 runs, so it could really go either way. I’m assuming that Musgrove’s ownership will be much lower than that of Valdez. If Braves RHP Ian Anderson were looking anything like his 2020 self in his last few starts after returning from injury, I’d have some interest in suing him as a contrarian play in Coors, but that just doesn’t appear to be the wise move tonight.
We’ve got another huge total Coors game tonight, so if you’re believer they’ll finally give us the shootout we’ve been promised tonight — have at it. But the past couple of nights have given us the highest totals outside of Coors, which is where we’ll be focusing our attention for tonight’s slate. That starts with Dodgers against LHP Sammy Long in San Francisco in a revenge game. This lineup just lost first place to the Giants last night and they absolutely destroy fastballs, and that’s primarily what Long throws. I’m starting my stacks with Trea Turner ($4,300), Mookie Betts ($4,100), A.J. Pollock ($3,200) and Justin Turner ($3,800), but lefties Max Muncy ($4,000 — if he doesn’t sit) and Corey Seager ($3,800) are in play as well.
If you’re not into playing the juggernaut Dodgers in a pitcher’s park, then consider rolling out the White Sox, who project well against young lefty Daniel Lynch. Lynch has been solid lately and has some contrarian upside in his own right tonight, but the smart money (4.95 projected team total for the Sox) is on Luis Robert ($4,200), Jose Abreu ($4,100), Eloy Jimenez ($3,600) and Yasmani Grandal ($3,500) pulvering baseballs and giving us a big offensive night. Andrew Vaughn and his .380 wOBA vs. LHP is the best value option at just $2,500, while Leury Garcia ($2,300) who sports positive splits against LHP (.320 wOBA) makes sense as well if you need the salary savings and need to drop one of the bigger bats.
The Angels offense just hasn’t been great the last couple of weeks, sporting a relatively weak wRC+ of 78 and .128 ISO over the past 14 days. But that all changes tonight against LHP Kolby Allard. On the season, the splits against LHP are solid, with a team wOBA of .322, ISO of .180 and 105 wRC+, numbers that match well against Allard and his ERA and FIP — both north of 5.00. Plus, the wind is blowing out to right field in a hitter’s park, and the temperature is the highest of any game in the slate. We’re going to see some runs scored in Anaheim tonight, and I’m starting my stacks with Shohei Ohtani ($4,500), David Fletcher ($2,900), Jo Adell ($2,500) and Justin Upton ($2,700). Max Stassi ($2,900) is in play if he starts, and so is “Fabulous” Phil Gosselin ($2,300) if he’s high in the order.
Make sure to keep an eye on the starters as lineups are released. Good luck tonight, and please utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!
Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s 10-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!
There are some weather issues tonight but we can exploit that by playing at least one pitchers folks might stay away from because of the PPD threat in Yankee Stadium.
Cole was brilliant in his last start and there’s nobody (except possibly Brandon Woodruff) with the upside he carries into this matchup. It’s the Red Sox, so it’s not an easy task, but he’s carried a 33.5% K rate into the All-Star break and could easily hit double digit Ks against this bunch. The only thing that worries me is the weather, so be ready to pivot to Woodward or another high-priced option like Anthony Desclafani in cash games if it gets to be a tighter window of clean weather.
The price on Castillo does not reflect his consistency this season or the ceiling that he has in MLB DFS. Again — the biggest problem I have with using him is weather, and if the chances for a delay are low enough I’ll take that chance in some GPPs. Castillo struggled with his command all day against the Brewers in his last outing, needing 102 pitches just to get through 5.1IP, but he did rack up 6 Ks. I think he’ll right some of that ship in another crack at this not-very-scary Brewers lineup.
Eovaldi handles the Yankees quite well, scoring 46 points (June 4 outing @NYY: 6.0 IP, 7 Ks, 1 ER) and 48 points (June 28 outing vs. NYY: 7.2 IP, 6 Ks, 1 ER) in his last two appearances facing the Bombers — who are missing some firepower tonight and are still stocked with plenty of right-handed batters. Adam Strangis discusses some of that upside in his must-read 7/17 Starting Rotation article, and I’m buying into that upside as a reasonably priced GPP option. Ownership should be low and I still think Eovaldi could get to double digit strikeouts as long as they finish this before the rain comes.
The Dodgers in Coors Field are going to be the highest owned stack, but let’s consider the Padres. It’s fun to pick on Patrick Corbin, and the red-hot Padres lineup looks ready to go again tonight — but only if the weather cooperates. The smart-money weather sharps are projecting a late start and completed game, but we’ll have to double check before lineup lock to see if that’s still the case. Getting Fernando Tatis Jr. ($4,300), Manny Machado ($3,800), Tommy Pham ($2,900) and Wil Myers ($2,500) into my stack would be the top priority.
There’s no threat of bad weather and the Angels are loaded with value in this matchup against hittable Yusei Kikuchi. Aside from the mopre expensive Shohei Ohtani ($4,500) and Jared Walsh ($3,500), we can find lots of value in David Fletcher ($2,900), Max Stassi ($2,800) and Taylor Ward ($2,500). I’d probably try a few different combinations to mix things up, but I like that five-player pool of bats on this “other” LA team tonight.
I’m not convinced the Braves won’t just rock Josh Fleming off the mound early tonight and I’m really interested in starting the big righty bats, including switch-hitting Ozzie Albies ($3,700), Dansby Swanson ($3,300) and Austin Riley ($3,100), with lefty 1B Freddie Freeman ($4,100) finishing off the four-man stack. Ownership will be low but these guys have massive upside in this matchup. Catcher Kevan Smith is also really cheap at $2,200.
Good luck tonight, and make sure you utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!
Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s six-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:15PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!
No major weather issues except a little light rain in the Windy City, and that wind is blowing in tonight.
With Gerrit Cole still looking lost a bit without his trusty sticky stuff, Buehler probably makes the most sense as the top ace on this small slate. While Cole does has another narrative at play here facing his former team — one that simply doesn’t strike out at normal human baseball team levels — Buehler is the largest favorite on the board and is the clear choice for cash games. Adam Strangis, in his must-read 7.10 Starting Rotation article, cites Buehler’s two appearances this season against a punchless D-Backs offense that resulted in 14.1 IP, 18 K’s, two ER, and just six free passes. His MLB DFS upside isn’t nearly what we’ve come to expect from a top ace, but he’s the safest option on the board.
Peralta gets the nod for best GPP value because he’s under $10K, but if you need the added savings that bad, you could give Joe Musgrove a shot against the road Rockies, The thing I like about Peralta is his very steady K production, which helps give him a daily FD points projection of over 40 just about every game. The Reds do a good job of putting the ball into play, especially on the road, where the team K rate is a few percentage points lower than at home, but if Fab Finger Freddy can avoid the walks and the big blow, this should be a W and another 40-45 points. Musgrove will likely come in with higher ownership and makes more sense for MLB DFS on a site like DK, where you need to start two pitchers, and one can be very chalky.
If you really want to see some savings at SP in large-field MLB DFS tourneys and stack up the big bats from the Dodgers, Brewers or other high-team-total offenses, you might have some interest in Sandoval, who’s made some adjustments to his pitch repertoire this season and carries a respectable 3.86/3.85 ERA/FIP combo into this matchup against one of the worst offenses in baseball. The Mariners strike out at the third-highest rate in MLB and give Sandoval the opportunity to not only eclipse his 25-30 point FD projection, but have a ceiling game in the 40-345 point range. He whiffed 10 Seattle batters in his last outing against the M’s and yielded just one walk and 2 ER en route to 46 FD points on June 6.
While the Dodgers bats are simply too cheap, they don’t seem to match up well vs. LHP Caleb Smith, who shut them out in 6.0 IP last time out on June 18. The Brewers, on the other hand, get to face Gutierrez — who’s given up 25 hits and 11 BB over his last 25.1 IP. “Kind of Bad” Vlad has done okay against lefties so far this season, but he’s been abnormally lucky, as his xFIP splits (6.41 vs. LHB) tell a different story. Look to some combination of the first six (also pretty inexpensive) bats here: Luis Urias ($2,600), Christian Yelich ($3,400), Jace Peterson ($2,600), Omar Narvaez ($2,500), Willy Adames ($2,700) and Avisail Garcia ($3,100). Yelich and Narvaez would be my two-man core if I had to pick a couple bats to populate more of my MLB DFS builds.
The Astros put the ball in play, and they’re at home against a pitcher who’s clearly not looking like his normal self. If they can get to him early, there’s massive GPP potential here in stacking some combination of these high-upside Houston bats, including: Jose Altuve ($4,200), Michael Brantley ($3,600), Kyle Tucker ($3,400) and Yordan Alvarez ($4,100) — who is 2-for-3 with two HR against Cole in his young career. I’m also willing to give a look to Martin Maldonado ($2,100) for some salary relief in a four-man stack that otherwise includes Altuve, Brantley and Alvarez. While it pains me to suggest stacking against my beloved Bombers on a short-handed slate, there just aren’t a ton of high-upside options to feast on tonight. I may have one Yankees stack as well, as Zack Greinke is long past his status as an MLB DFS ace.
We discussed how they’ve struggled against LHP and Smith this season, but they are very cheap compared to their usual salaries and the ownership shouldn’t be out of control since they aren’t the highest projected total on the board. Mookie Betts ($3,500) is probably the lowest we’ll see him all season, and there’s plenty of upside in the bats of Justin Turner ($3,000), Chris Taylor ($3,000), Cody Bellinger ($3,300) and Max Muncy ($3,700). I really like the direct cheap prices on Albert Pujols ($2,100) and Will Smith ($2,500) if they end dup in the lineup too.
Good luck tonight, and make sure you utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!
Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s seven-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:15PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!
The rain from Tropical Storm Claudette is seriously threatening to PPD the Braves-Cards game, so we’ll leave that off our list of targets. The rest of the games have just a few possible delays sprinkled in, so just keep an eye on SP for those games.
I’m not all that enamored with Walker Buehler’s strikeout numbers this season, and Lance Lynn is squaring up against an Astros lineup that just doesn’t strike out very much. Both are more expensive than Valdez and have about the same projected FD total, so Framber seems like the best option with the most upside in a home game that could turn into a pitcher’s duel. He’s carrying a 1.42 ERA that’s much lower than his 3.48 FIP but the xFIP is just 3.01. There is some additional reason for concern given that his 90.9% LOB% is pretty bloated, but he should fare well if he can keep the White Sox off the base paths today.
Sandoval has made great strides in the past year, mixing in a solid changeup to go along with a fledgling four-seamer that Adam Strangis highlights in his excellent, must-read 6/19 Starting Rotation piece. While I don’t agree with his choices of Buehler and Lynn before Valdez today, the writeup on Sandoval deftly addresses how much of a great leverage play Sandoval could be in tournaments tonight, especially with some folks stacking the cheap Tigers bats as a contrarian move in GPPs. Sandoval is a decent by-the-book DFS play on FD because of his effective recent starts and the fact that the Angels are -220 favorite and the Tigers have the highest team K rate (27.6%) in baseball.
Gutierrez has been awfully sharp in four outings this season, and while the Padres are not a team we like to play pitchers against, the rookie righty has yet to give up more than two earned runs in any start and already has two quality starts to his record in 2021. It’s important to point out that while the sample size is still very small, it’s possible major league hitters are still making an adjustment to the youngster’s stuff and what has been a very effective fastball. Gutierrez works in a slider, curve and change that have been average, but with injuries abounding in the Reds rotation, he’s making a play to stay there. As a GPP play, he’s got upside, along with huge bust potential, so steer clear of him in cash games and single-entry builds. Both he and the befuddling Austin Gomber (who’s pitched great in Coors Field this year) are interesting leverage plays on this slate.
The Angels have a .377 team wOBA in the past seven games, and they have some monster bats in Shohei Ohtani ($4,400), Jared Walsh ($3,800) and Justin Upton ($3,400), who has thrived in the leadoff spot. Mix in “FanDuel fourth-man” power options Max Stassi ($3,600), Taylor Ward ($2,900) and the possible return of Anthony Rendon ($3,700) and you’ve got the building blocks of a slate-breaking stack.
We can call the Dodgers a value stack on this slate because they have a few lefty hitters that qualify for that designation tonight including Gavin Lux ($2,900) and Zach McKinstry ($2,400). Using one or both of them should allow you to fit in two or three of the big bats: Mookie Betts ($4,200), Justin Turner ($3,900), a rejuvenated Albert Pujols ($3,10)and Chris Taylor, who is still overpriced a bit at $3,400 (unless he’s moved back up in the order). Will Smith ($2,700) and A.J. Pollock ($2,600) are also cheap and remain in the conversation for Dodgers stacks.
The Rays aren’t typically a contrarian stack, but they are today, especially with a Coors Field game on the slate. I’ll defer to the Discord chatter a bit on the specifics of the best Tampa Bay builds since they LOVE the Rays in there, but I’m starting my stacks with Austin Meadows ($3,800) and Randy Arozarena ($4,000), mixing in a few shares each of Joey Wendle ($3,100), Ji-Man Choi ($2,700) and Manuel Margot ($3,000).
Good luck tonight, and make sure you utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!
Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s four-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!
It’s another busy day for weather, but initial forecasts project only one game on the main slate that could be impacted: ATL @NYM — which they should be able to get in with a late start and under a light, steady rain.
Ownership is going to be heavily weighted toward Urias, who’s the obvious choice in cash games. He’s got the most upside of any pitcher on the slate and easily boasts the highest floor because of the matchup. With four 50+ FD point performances among his last seven starts, Urias is coming into his own as a reliable fantasy starter after being brought slowly along by the Dodgers in his first few seasons in the big leagues. The Giants have a team K% of 26.2% — seventh highest in MLB — and the Dodgers are the biggest favorites in this four-game slate. Don’t overthink this one. Urias should be a lock for your cash games and in the majority of your GPP lineups.
For whatever reason, Ian Anderson’s weekly start for Atlanta almost always lands on a Saturday night, which is just fine with me considering he’s my favorite young pitcher in baseball for selfish reasons: he’s from about a half-hour away in upstate New York’s Capital Region, and is probably the best pitcher to some out of this area in decades. Pitching in a steady rain should be a familiar thing for a guy from just north of Albany, NY. The talented hurler didn’t issue a walk or accumulated any earned runs in his last start en route to 46 FanDuel points — a perfectly viable number given the difficulty this slate presents for pitching options. While the Mets don’t strike out at a particularly high rate, they do have one of the league’s most feeble team wOBA marks — just .291. Compare that to what the Braves lineup offers — a /327 team wOBA — and you’ve got a recipe for another victory and 35-45 FD points.
This makes two SP options on tonight’s slate with WinDaily narratives. While I don’t know my area’s local product (Anderson) personally, Nick Bretwisch is buddies with Mike Foltynewicz (it’s a Minooka, Illinois thing) and he’s continually come through with the best spots to deploy Folty in our MLB DFS builds. On FanDuel tonight, he’s more of a large-field GPP contrarian play, since his K totals are a little lower this season. The silver lining, however, is in the opponent’s propensity to strike out. The Mariners have a team K% of 26.2% — sixth highest in baseball this season — and they sport the second-lowest team wOBA (.285) against RHP. If you’re hell-bent on jamming in the most expensive bats on the slate and/or want to get a little crazy at SP, Folty has some modest upside vs,. SEA.
Only two teams in yesterday’s slate scored more runs than the Cards, who beat the D-Backs 8-6 and helped secure a lot of green screens for folks that trusted they’d easily handle LHP Madison Bumgarner. Today they face a right-hander, but it’s a guy with considerably less major-league experience in Frankoff, who has just 13.1 IP under his belt in MLB. Frankoff is a 32-year-old journeyman who spent some time in Korea and is with his fifth major-league organization — a sign he’s not missing a whole lot of bats at this level. The Cards should be able to take advantage of his 6.46 FIP with their usual array of potent bats, including Paul Goldschmidt ($3,100), Nolan Arenado ($3,600), Dylan Carlson (underpriced at just $2,200) and Tyler O’Neill ($3,000) — who went deep last night and boasts a .370 wOBA and nine HR vs. RHP over his last 88 big league AB. I also like switch-hitting leadoff hitter Tommy Edman ($2,700) and there’s also an opportunity to do a full game stack here and run back some bats from Arizona: Josh Rojas ($2,300), Carson Kelly ($3,200), Ketel Marte ($3,300), David Peralta ($2,500), Pavin Smith ($2,600) and Eduardo Escobar ($2,700) are all woefully mispriced for this slate.
It’s bizarre to see the Dodgers listed as a value stack, but after you get past the high-priced bats of Mookie Betts ($3,900) and Max Muncy ($3,600), there’s a couple lefty hitters we can target for their value (Gavin Lux at $2,600 and upside-laden Matt Beaty at just $2,100) along with Justin Turner ($2,900), Chris Turner ($3,100) and Will Smith ($2,900). The Dodgers projected team run total is actually right around what the D-Backs are expected, so I’ll probably make a balance four-man stacks of each team (and some 2 LAD +2 ARI builds) against my four-man Cards stacks.
Tonight might be a really good night to experiment with low-stakes multi-entry GPP and leaving some money on the table, which means we can use some combination of Rangers 1-5 hitters in a few stacks with Dunn on the mound for Seattle. Dunn’s 3.40 ERA belies an xFIP of 5.76 — good news for guys like Willie Calhoun ($3,000), Nate Lowe ($2,900), Adolis Garcia ($4,300) and Joey Gallo ($3,200). Brock Holt ($2,500) has excellent numbers vs. RHP as well. The price tag and RHP vs. RHB matchup for Garcia might scare some folks away, but he makes for a great one-off even if you’re not stacking the Rangers, with a .400 wOBA, a .330 ISO and nine HR in less than 100 AB vs. RHP. Whatever you plan on doing, I’d include some of these Rangers bats in my GPP builds at what could be relatively low ownership even on a slate this small.
Good luck, and make sure you utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!
We’ve reached the decisive Game 5 for both NLDS matchups on 10/9 DFS — here are my picks for the two-game slate and the featured Showdown.
Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!
The games: St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves (5:02 p.m.), Washington Nationals atLos Angeles Dodgers (8:37 p.m.)
I’m focused on the home favorite for SP1 here – since home-fieldadvantage in the MLB playoffs is a real and palpable thing. The DK pricing is,thankfully, soft enough for us to find plenty of big bats. For SP2, I’ll have alittle of both Jack Flaherty (consistent value at his price) and MikeFoltynewicz, who was excellent in his start on Oct. 4. Startingpitching has been really great in the postseason thus far, so youreally can’t go wrong with any combo.
Buehler has the highest upside of any pitcher on the slate, evenif his leash is a little shorter than Strasburg’s. For the $400 discount, he’smy SP1 – and I’m fine with him being chalky.
Flahery has been one of the best pitchers in baseball since the All-star break (his .189 wOBA in the second half is almost beyond belief) and he went 117 pitches in his last start, which tells me the Cards are going to let him win or lose this thing.
Molina was thehero on Monday for the Cards, and while he’s back on the road for decuisiveGame 5, this veteran has had success against Folty in a limited sample (7-for-18,.432 wOBA with a HR) Pivot: Brian McCann (DK $3,200)
He came through for us on Monday so I’m going back to the well inGame 5. Goldy is one of the best fantasy assets in baseball over the past fiveyears and he’s a complete offensive player who can rack up the XBH. The pricehas come up a bit but he’s worth the extra expense. Pivot: Freddie Freeman
Muncy is having an electric postseason with a couple homers andthree games scoring over 20 DK points. He’s eligible at 1B if you’re stacking Dodgersand want to use Gavin Lux at second base for the discount. Pivot: Gavin Lux
I’m not a hugebeliever in BvP, but a small sample analysis within the small sample frameworkof the playoffs makes some sense. The track record against Strasburg and RHPsin general is a good one, and Turner((142 wRC+ and .294 ISO this season) has homered in his last twogames this postseason. Pivot: Anthony Rendon/Tommy Edman
There’s plenty of risk starting Seageragainst Strasburg, but he’s an exciting young player who came alive in Septemberwith a .304/.337/.646 slash line, seven homersand 23 RBI during the final month, and he has a clear affinity for playoffbaseball. He’s been getting hits but hasn’t posted the big lien yet. Today couldbe the day he breaks through with some XBH. Pivot: Paul DeJong
I won’t have to much exposure to the Nationals in this game, butone player who’s worth the risk is Soto – who had a monster Game 3 and appearsready for the big stage of a Game 5. If the Nats pull this out, he’s going tohave a lot to do with it. Pivot: Clay Bellinger
There isn’t a hotter hitter in the NL postseason than Ozuna, whohas multi-hit games in all of the NLDS tilts thus far and is coming off atwo-homer game in Game 4. He’ll be extremely chalky on this two-game slate becausehis game logs will attract plenty of attention from the masses – but you shouldhave some exposure to this slugger who hit 31 homers in 2019 and now has a.275/.341/.650 slash line against the Braves in 2019 if you count thepostseason. Pivot: Ronald Acuna
We need to find some value somewhere, so Joyce fits the bill if he’sin the starting lineup. If he’s not, you’ll have a difficult decision to make –since it could be difficult to find a viable DK OF under $3,500. Pivot: DexterFowler (DK $3,900)
Sign up and get started withWinDailySports! We have your sport and the experts to help make you money. Whylose another buck when you can win TODAY!
Hitters only – so we can focus on the Dodgers bats we like andplay one or two Nats hitters with upside. We’ll slap the modestly priced JustinTurner in the MVP spot, since many will be drawn to the higher priced bats at 2x.
MVP (2x) – J. Turner ($7,000) – If he homers, he’ll pay off
All-Star (1.5x) – T. Turner ($8,500) – His ability to steal basesat will could be huge today.
UTIL – M. Muncy ($8,000)
UTIL – C. Seager ($6,500)
UTIL – G. Lux ($5,000)
Tired of losing money on yourDFS and Sportsbook? Sign up today and become a winner while turning your passion for sports into asecond stream of income!
It may be beneficial to play one or two Dodgers and/or Nats batswe like, somehow fit in Buehler and pick an off-the-wall bench player on eitherteam to come through with a big hit late in the game.
Captain (1.5x) – J. Turner ($12,000)
UTIL – W. Buehler ($11,000)
UTIL – G. Lux ($4,200)
UTIL – M. Muncy ($9,000)
UTIL – J. Soto ($8,800)
UTIL – B. Dozier ($5,000)
We’re into the exciting MLB postseason and looking at some 10/3 MLB DFS picks for the two-game slate and featured Showdown on DraftKings (8:37 EST). Join us as we detail some strategies for lineup construction and taking down the big cash prize.
Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!
The games: St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves (5:02 p.m. EST) & Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgers (8:37 p.m. EST)
The one-game playoffs are over, so SP1s are much more important, could rack up some big-time points and will set the tone for the entire roster construction. There’s plenty of SP2 value here.
The pricing is fair on both sites considering Buehler’sceiling, although he’ll have a shorter leash than the regular season. Still –the 29.2 K% stands out as a number we can latch onto and invest in, along withthe 12.2% HR/FB rate. The young ace has been the Dodgers’ most consistentstarter in 2019 and is your best bet at SP1. Ownership will be massive and I’llmake sure to leave him out of 1-2/10 GPP lineups, but we can find ways todifferentiate later.
I’m not interested in Miles Mikolas and the small discount on FD, and he’s just too risky against the Braves lineup at their home park in Atlanta. I may slap in both Keuchel and Mikolas in the aforementioned 1-2/10 lineups on DK and stack the biggest bats from the hitting options below, but Keuchel’s postseason record (4-2, 3.31 ERA in nine starts and 10 total appearances) is something I’m drawn to. Keuchel’s .219 BAA and 3.38 SIERA in the postseason further solidify my interest.
You’re paying for experience (343 postseason plate appearances) and the highest floor of the available catchers. I’m probably not playing catchers on FD but you get a real discount with Molina. Brian McCann ($3,400 on DK) has legit home run upside but poor postseason numbers in 126 plate appearances (.170/.254/.304 slash). Will Smith is neutralized a bit by LHPs and Kurt Suzuki is a contrarian dart throw for large-field GPPs.
The price is right and he’s got the biggest upside excluding Paul Goldschmidt, who might get pretty chalky. I’m not worried about lefty-lefty and Corbin may not last long. Bellinger is an OF on FD and OF eligible on DK. Plug him in there. Pivot: Freddie Freeman, ATL (DK $4,700, FD $4,200). I’m concerned about the bone spur in his elbow and may choose to avoid him here. Freddie is risky but has a favorable matchup against Mikolas.
Tommy Edman ($5,300 on DK) is 2B/3B eligible on DK and makes for an interesting pivot against the LHP, but I like Albies hitting in the 2-spot here despite his splits favoring him versus lefties. If he’s chalky, I’ll look to use the more expensive Edman. Pivots: Edman, Asdrubal Cabrera
The 34-year-old is nursing a tight back, but he’s assured us he will play in Game 1 and is coming off a solid season where he tied his career high with 27 homers – while driving in 67 runs and slashing .290/.372/.509 in 135 games. I’m taking the plunge and hoping for low ownership because of the back.
Taylor is a relatively cheap OF on FD ($2,800) but the price on Dk is solid too. Remember when this guy just couldn’t get it going early in the season? After his dreadful April when he slashed .171/.263/.257, Taylor settled in, and he’s got plenty of postseason experience with a 139 wRC+ in 30 games.
Hernandez is a $2,900 second baseman on FD, but he’s just $3,300 on Dk and the price can get you a full Dodgers stack without too much trouble. He kills southpaws (career 123 wRC+ and .213 ISO vs. LHPs) and he’s got five HRs in 103 postseason plate appearances. Pivot: Matt Joyce
I’m buying Soto despite the tough matchup, planning on him coming up in a big spot late in the game, and delivering. Soto showed us something in the Wild Card game the small sample 0-for-5 BvP against Buehler will keep his ownership low. The price is cheap and if he fits, I’ll use him. Pivots: Marcell Ozuna, Ronald Acuna
He rounds out my Dodgers stack on DK and makes sense as a third outfielder on FD. Pollock sports a blistering 136 wRC+ against LHPs and a 154 wRC+ at home vs. LHPs. Pivot: Dexter Fowler
Sign up and get started with WinDailySports! We have your sport and the experts to help make you money. Why lose another buck when you can win TODAY!
I’ll have some shares with Buehler as CPT and a few inexpensivebats and bench players (Gavin Lux, Brian Dozier are both viable bench optionsin large-field Showdown GPPs), but the majority of lineups will feature Pollock,Turner, Taylor and Hernandez at CPT with shares of Soto, Howie Kendrick, VictorRobles and Cabrera for the Nats.
Captain (1.5x) – Pollock ($10,800)
UTIL – Buehler ($11,600)
UTIL – J. Turner ($7,600)
UTIL – A. Cabrera ($7,400)
UTIL – C. Taylor ($6,600)
UTIL – V. Robles ($6,000)
Tired of losing money on your DFS and Sportsbook? Sign up today and become a winner while turning your passion for sports into a second stream of income!
We don’t have to worry about pitchers on FD, so we can putour best hitter right in the MVP slot and take some chances after that. And Ifwe stick with Pollock as MVP in 2/5 GPP lineups, we’ll get low ownership and anadvantage on the field.
MVP (2x) – Pollock ($7,000)
All-Star (1.5x) – Bellinger ($9,000)
UTIL – C. Taylor ($4.500)
UTIL – T. Turner ($8,500)
UTIL – K. Hernandez ($6,000)
Tonight’s 9/10 MLB DFS slate is packed with SP2 options in good matchups, and we also have a Coors Field game with an expected run total of 13.5. This is going to make paying for these bats extremely difficult with the current SP pricing meaning you are going to have to take some chances or fade the game completely.
Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, weather reports, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!
On theDefense
WalkerBuehler vs. Baltimore Orioles
$11,600 FD / $12,300 DK
The Orioles have little to play for besides personal gloryat this point. Baltimore is also striking out 22.7 percent of the time versusRHPs with a low wRC+ of 88. Despite Buehler’s dicey track record pitching onthe road, he has struggled more heavily against much better teams. Which theOrioles are not, especially as of late coming in 25th in MLB in runsscored over the last seven days. On this 9/10 MLB DFS slate, with tons ofoptions, Buehler could leave you walking to the cash line at a low ownership.
ZacGallen vs. New York Mets
$9,100 FD / $11,200 DK
The Diamondbacks at Mets currently has the lowest expected run total on this 9/10 MLB DFS slate. We also have way too many pitchers worth taking a shot on tonight to write about everyone and I am seriously trying to get separation. Although the Mets are highly unpredictable and swinging hot bats as of late, Gallen has had success this season versus New York, allowing two earned runs over five innings with five strikeouts the last time he faced them at home. With a positive park shift heading to Citi Field tonight I am taking a shot here.
WadeMiley vs. Oakland Athletics
$8,900 FD / $9,300 DK
I have had a hard time taking Miley Coyote seriously this season. In past DFS years he has absolutely killed me. Like in his last start facing Seattle who lit him up for five earned runs without registering an out. Well, tonight I say he bounces back facing an Athletics team he has a 1.83 ERA versus over three starts this season with 11 strikeouts. If you wanted to start to get some Colorado bats on this 9/10 MLB DFS slate, you could consider using him as your SP1 in GPP play.
Defcon 4
The savings department on this 9/10 MLB DFS slate is worse than a .99 cent sale at a dollar store. They all either have bad matchups or are just plain bad. So, in order to get some Colorado bats in, the risk level must go to Defcon 4.
NathanEovaldi vs. Toronto Blue Jays
$6,600 FD / $7,300 DK
The Blue Jays are striking out 25.9 percent of the timeversus RHPs with a .303 wOBA and wRC+ of 88. Toronto is also batting a pathetic.179 over the last seven with a wRC+ of 54, which certainly raises my attentionlevel. Regardless after watching Eovaldi tame the Twins in his last startallowing only one earned run over five innings, some serious consideration onthis 9/10 MLB DFS slate needs to be given here.
RonaldBolanos vs. Chicago Cubs
$6,400 FD / $6,800 DK
This is where we at on this 9/10 MLB DFS slate, with Ronald Bolanos. On most nights I would rather light my head on fire and put it out with a hammer rather than use a pitcher like this, especially in this match up. The Cubs are one of the best offensive teams facing RHPs this season and offer huge blow up potential. This is total risk here, but Bolanos did tame the D’Backs in Arizona allowing two earned runs over five innings in his only start. With a strong park shift at home I am taking a shot here in large field GPPs.
| Name | Team | W | L | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | GB% | HR/FB | ERA | xFIP | |
| Walker Buehler | Dodgers | 12 | 3 | 159.1 | 10.73 | 1.58 | 1.02 | 0.297 | 42.50% | 12.40% | 3.28 | 3.3 | |
| Wade Miley | Astros | 13 | 4 | 156 | 7.73 | 3.17 | 1.27 | 0.269 | 50.50% | 15.70% | 3.35 | 4.42 | |
| Zac Gallen | Diamondbacks | 3 | 4 | 68.1 | 10.8 | 4.21 | 0.66 | 0.29 | 38.30% | 8.30% | 2.5 | 4.14 | |
| Ronald Bolanos | Padres | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0.263 | 38.90% | 0.00% | 3 | 5.2 | |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Red Sox | 1 | 0 | 48.1 | 9.12 | 4.47 | 1.86 | 0.307 | 45.60% | 20.40% | 5.77 | 4.82 |
On theAttack
There are a ton of options to attack on this 9/10 MLB DFSslate. The top two are obviously the Cardinals and Rockies tonight in Colorado.So, here are three others to look at tonight if you are fading this game. WhichI do not recommend tonight.
Ty Blachvs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Talk about ugly? Blach has allowed 20 earned runs over hislast four starts. Now he is home facing a powerful Dodgers team in a small parklike Baltimore. On this 9/10 MLB DFS slate I am all in here.
Notable Bats
A.J. Pollock is posting a .394 wOBA versus LHPs and is 3-for-8 with a home run off Blach.
Justin Turner wallops LHPS to the tune of a .384 wOBAwhile going 5-for-16 lifetime off Blach with a home run. Keep your eyes peeled herethough, he has an ankle injury and may sit.
Chris Taylor has a .362 wOBA versus LHPs whilebatting .318 facing Blach over 22 at ABs.
MitchKeller vs. San Francisco Giants
Although the Giants are hit or miss most nights, but they docome cheap on this 9/10 MLB DFS slate. With Keller allowing 15 earned runs overhis last 16 innings I will be sprinkling in some Giants bats tonight.
Notable Bats
Mike Yastrzemski Is posting a .341 wOBA versus RHPs battingleadoff most nights.
Buster Posey is posting a .324 wOBA versus RHPs whilebatting .400 over the last seven days.
Brandon Belt has not homered in 10 games now puttinghim on my watch list.
TrevorBauer vs. Seattle Mariners
Talk about change, Bauer has allowed 28 earned runs over hislast five starts. Despite Seattle batting .183 over the last seven days I seesome serious runs scored at low ownership on this 9/10 MLB DFS slate.
Notable Bats
Daniel Vogelbach is sporting a .367 wOBA versus RHPsthis season
Kyle Seager is 8-for-20 lifetime off Bauer with sixRBI while posting a .327 wOBA versus RHPs this season.
Omar Narvaez has a .349 wOBA versus RHPs batting cleanup.
| Name | Team | G | PA | HR | R | RBI | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | wOBA RHP | wOBA LHP |
| Justin Turner | Dodgers | 131 | 538 | 27 | 80 | 67 | 2 | 9.10% | 16.40% | 0.291 | 0.363 | 0.394 |
| Chris Taylor | Dodgers | 107 | 356 | 11 | 43 | 47 | 7 | 9.00% | 26.70% | 0.266 | 0.315 | 0.384 |
| A.J. Pollock | Dodgers | 72 | 287 | 13 | 43 | 39 | 4 | 7.70% | 22.30% | 0.261 | 0.303 | 0.362 |
| Mike Yastrzemski | Giants | 91 | 342 | 19 | 55 | 51 | 2 | 7.60% | 25.70% | 0.269 | 0.341 | 0.393 |
| Buster Posey | Giants | 105 | 412 | 6 | 40 | 35 | 0 | 8.00% | 16.30% | 0.257 | 0.324 | 0.303 |
| Brandon Belt | Giants | 139 | 555 | 16 | 70 | 56 | 4 | 13.90% | 20.00% | 0.231 | 0.323 | 0.245 |
| Kyle Seager | Mariners | 88 | 367 | 21 | 46 | 56 | 2 | 9.80% | 20.70% | 0.246 | 0.367 | 0.376 |
| Daniel Vogelbach | Mariners | 130 | 514 | 30 | 71 | 74 | 0 | 16.50% | 25.70% | 0.214 | 0.349 | 0.325 |
| Omar Narvaez | Mariners | 116 | 431 | 19 | 58 | 49 | 0 | 10.00% | 19.30% | 0.278 | 0.327 | 0.277 |
Sign up and get started with WinDailySports! We have your sport and the experts to help make you money. Why lose another buck when you can win TODAY!
Monkey Knife Fight Prop Pick
Blach is is poor enough where most of the Dodgers bats would achieve this over tonight, including Turner.
Even though Buehler is a top tier starter his home/road splits favor home. Mancini hits RHPs well batting .282 this season and I am not expecting a shutout here. Over all the way.
FOLLOW Win Daily DFS ON TWITTER
@WinDailyDFS. PLEASE CHECK OUT EVERYTHING THAT Win Daily DFS HAS TO OFFER. NEW ARTICLES, STATISTICS AND DATA ARE BEING ADDED CONSTANTLY. ALSO, DO NOT FORGET TO LISTEN TO THE WIN DAILY PODCASTS HERE
This report will provide recommended DFS stacks for today’s nine-game main slate. I will also include my favorite pitching picks.
**Another game with rain out potential. At the moment it looks like the storms should hold off until after the game but i advise you to monitor the weather here as it looks shakey up and down the east coast tonight.
Nick Pivetta is on the mound this evening for the Phillies. He carries an average 5.81 ERA, 5.75 FIP, and 4.89 SIERA on the year. Pivetta has fairly identical splits, with batters slashing to a .360 wOBA, .530 SLG, and .340 OBP across 66.2 innings. He has given up 27 earned runs across 33 innings to right handed batters. He has also allowed 16 earned runs in 33 innings to left handed batters. The core of this Los Angeles Dodgers team is their left handed power and they have been tearing up right handed pitching. They are slashing to a .355 wOBA, .223 ISO, and 121 WRC+ over the last month to righties.
Preferred Stack: Cody Bellinger $4800 FD|$5800 DK, Max Muncy $3900 FD|$5100 DK, David Freese ($2800 FD|$4400 DK, A.J. Pollock $3300 FD|$3800 DK, and Joc Pederson $2800 FD|$4600 DK).
***Weather is a legitimate concern here, possible PPD. Pitching and bats risky. If you want to play a Boston stack, I would reserve it for GPP’s and monitor the weather.
The Red Sox get a lofty 6.90 implied run total in this matchup against Aaron Sanchez (surprising, I know) and this is one we cannot ignore. I know we have some weather concerns here, so tune in with our weather man Mark for updates as we get closer to lock. Aaron Sanchez carries an average 6.22 ERA, 5.50 FIP, and 5.62 SIERA. Sanchez is allowing batters to slash to a .362 wOBA, .456 SLG, and .388 OBP across 97 innings. He has allowed 67 earned runs in that span. Aaron Sanchez is a ground ball pitcher, averaging a 48% ground ball rate. Although he doesn’t give up many home runs, he has a .330 BABIP and LOB of 66%. The Red Sox are slashing to a .374 wOBA, .252 ISO, and 131 WRC+ over the last two weeks to right handed pitching. These are the best hitting numbers on the slate by a long shot.
Preferred Stack: Rafael Devers ($4200 FD|$5700 DK), Xander Bogaerts ($4400 FD|$5600 DK), Andrew Benintendi ($3400 FD|$4500 DK), and Mookie Betts ($4300 FD|$5400 DK).
We have Jesse Chavez taking on the Diamondbacks in Coors South this evening. Chavez carries a 3.84 ERA, 4.51 FIP, and 4.24 SIERA into tonight’s matchup. He is a reverse splits pitcher, allowing righties to slash .353 wOBA, .519 SLG, and .329 OBP. He has fallen off recently after having a somewhat successful start to the year. I expect him to stay in this rough patch and we will see his ERA line up with close to his FIP as the season comes to a close. Arizona batters are slashing to a .300 wOBA, .161 ISO, and 82 WRC+ in recent weeks. These are by no means the averages I look for when picking my stacks, but I feel with the ballpark upgrade to the bats and Chavez’s recent struggles we could end up with a nice lower owned Diamondbacks stack.
Preferred Plays: Ketel Marte ($3700 FD|$5200 DK), Eduardo Escobar ($3700 FD|$5200 DK), Christian Walker ($3000 FD|$4700 DK), Adam Jones ($2900 FD|$4200 DK), and Jarrod Dyson ($2700 FD|$4800 DK).
vs. RHP Spencer Turnbull (DET): 5.78 Runs
Preferred Plays: Francisco Lindor ($4000 FD|$5000 DK), Carlos Santana ($4200 FD|$5300 DK), Jason Kipnis ($2900 FD|$3600 DK), Jose Ramirez ($3600 FD|$4400 DK). Jakob Bauers for value ($2900 FD|$3600 DK). Mike Freeman ($2100 FD|$3700 DK and Tyler Naquin ($2800 FD|$4000 DK) are also good value plays.
**Another trouble spot with weather otherwise I’d have them as the top stack. I think the game starts on time, but a good chance we do not get a full 9 innings.
Preferred Plays: Juan Soto ($4000 FD|$5500 DK), Howie Kendrick ($2600 FD|$4900 DK), Anthony Rendon ($4300 FD|$5500 DK), Victor Robles ($3400 FD|$4400), and Brian Dozier ($2600 FD|$3900 DK).
Follow us on Twitter!
Please check out our Daily MLB cheatsheet for more cash oriented plays.
"*" indicates required fields
