After one of our best week’s of the year at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, it was understandable to see a lot of excitement in the WinDaily Sports Discord both celebrating the HUGE wins but also anticipating this week’s selections for the John Deere Classic Betting tips.
In a year dominated by an unbackable Scottie Scheffler winning at extremely short odds, it is pleasing to return the year to profit. This follows a 2023 where we had an ROI of +33% and 2022 with ROI of +25%.
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As always, prior to reading my betting tips I recommend reading my John Deere Classic preview here. This has all the information you need and provides an overview behind the selections below.
John Deere Classic Golf Betting Tips
Suggested Staking
Aaron Rai – John Deere Classic Betting Tips Favourite
2.5u E/W +2000 (Various 8 places 1/5 odds)
Denny McCarthy
2.5u E/W +2000 (Various 8 places 1/5 odds)
Daniel Berger
1u E/W +7000 (888Sport 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
2u Top 20 +320 (Bet365)
Dylan Wu
1u E/W +8000 (Betfair 10 places 1/5 odds)
And
2u Top 20 +500 (Betfair)
Chandler Phillips
0.5u E/W +10000 (Bet365 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1u Top 20 +450 (BetVictor)
And
2u Top 40 +160 (Bet365)
Patton Kizzire – John Deere Classic Betting Tips Best Value
0.5u E/W +14000 (Bet365 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1u Top 20 +550 (Bet365)
And
2u Top 40 +200 (Bet365)
Troy Merritt
0.5u E/W +15000 (888Sport/BetWay 8 places 1/5 odds)
And
1u Top 20 +550 (Bet365)
And
2u Top 40 +200 (Bet365)
John Deere Classic Betting Player Profiles
Aaron Rai – John Deere Classic Betting Tips Favourite
We headline our John Deere Classic betting tips with the talented, if somewhat underachieving, Englishman in Aaron Rai. Turning pro at 17 years old, much was hoped for his budding career. It is probably fair to surmise that had he remained on the DP World Tour, he would have won an additional 6 or more professional events by this point of his career.
The big bug bear for Rai has, as is often the case for elite ball-strikers, been his putter. There was some great evidence last week that this may be turning the corner. On his way to a runner up finish, Rai was 10th for SG: Putting. This all came off the back of beginning work with a new putting coach, as well as ranking 25th for putting at the US Open. The fact that this change in his team was accompanied by immediate results is undoubtedly eye-catching.
For those concerned he may be emotionally drained after competing last week, bear in mind his debut DP World Tour victory came at the Scottish Open a week after finishing 2nd at the Irish Open. Both are flagship events on the DP World Tour, carrying a lot of prestige as national opens.
Ranking 15th in this field for the key approach range of 100-150 yards, he also rates out number one in the field for driving accuracy over the last 6 months. Combined with the sudden improvement in putting, this shapes as a wonderful opportunity for Aaron Rai to notch his maiden PGA Tour win.
Denny McCarthy
There are question marks around Jordan Spieth with his form and wrist injury, Sungjae Im and his course suitability, and a very short-priced but still always volatile Sepp Straka at the top of the John Deere Classic betting market. With a swift drop in class after the top few names, the other I wanted on this card was Denny McCarthy.
Of course, there was heartbreak for Denny earlier in the season when he lost in a playoff to Bhatia at the Valero Texas Open. There are a fair number of parallels between TPC San Antonio and TPC Deere Run too, and the additional correlation that prior to that playoff loss he had gained on approach on his two prior starts.
That is the same situation we find McCarthy in this week, who was 24th on approach at TPC River Highlands. You see, given his putting prowess, Denny is atypical to many a PGA Tour player. We can reliably say he is one of the best putters on planet earth, ranking 1st in this field over the last 6 months. The key marker for his game is when his iron play begins to improve.
Of further promise, he is even better than Rai in the 100-150 yard range, ranking 11th in this field within that bucket. Ranking in the top 30% in the field for driving accuracy is also good enough to get the job done, at a golf course where he has finished 6th in both of the last two years.
Daniel Berger
Outside those two names at the top, it is then worth diving down the John Deere Classic betting board and finding value. Aforementioned, this is not a strong field. That presents opportunity. At many events with truly elite players, so much win equity is occupied up top, with the remainder swallowed up in the 2nd line of betting. At the John Deere Classic, the class difference between 10th and 40th in betting is far smaller.
After an extended period out injured, it is pleasing to see Berger’s fitness return. Although he is yet to find prior results, that has come from short-game rust. Totally understandable after 18 months away from golf. Of recent results, the 13th at a low scoring Byron Nelson was promising, as was finishing 21st in elite company at the US Open.
The fact that his ball-striking has returned is promising. He ranks 7th in this field over the last 6 months (34 rounds) and 14th for SG: APP. Again, he ranks very well in the key 100-150 yards range, rating out 9th in this field.
Of spots to find his putter again, TPC Deere Run presents a potential opportunity. He has gained strokes putting here in 2/3 appearances, with his only time losing putting being at a rate of just -0.04 per round to be right on field average. He still finished 33rd that week. Berger finished 5th here on debut too, which is always pleasing when a golfer plays well on their first look at a course.
A win at correlated Colonial, 2nd and 5th at TPC River Highlands, and 7th at Wai’alae completes the picture. He could join Stricker (x 3), Spieth (x 2), Zach Johnson, and Kenny Perry in completing the double here with Colonial Country Club with a win this week.
Dylan Wu
Despite a lack of form here and correlating courses, I’m willing to take a chance on Dylan Wu this week.
This is a home game for Dylan Wu, having attended Northwestern University some 170 miles away. Those local links should add to his comfortability at this course, often a small thing that can make a large difference to performance.
Last week’s venue, Detroit Golf Club, did not shape as a great match on paper for Dylan Wu. Therefore, a finish of 10th with rounds of 69-68-69-68 was pleasing and demonstrated great consistency. That can often be an aspect missing in his game, with the ability to compile one very low round bookended by a couple of high ones.
21st in this field for the key approach range of 100-150 yards is complimented by recent improvements in driving accuracy and putting. In terms of the latter, he led the field in putting last week on similar bentgrass greens and ranks 3rd in this field over the last month for SG: Putt. Overall, the John Deere Classic makes for a potential breakout spot for Dylan Wu at decent value particularly in the Top 20 and Top 40 betting markets.
Chandler Phillips
Having already turned some heads early on in his rookie season, Chandler Phillips looks well positioned this week for another strong finish.
Detroit Golf Club was simply not the right course fit for this short hitter. Making the cut in itself was an achievement, as was being 10th in the field for driving accuracy. He now rates as 23rd in this field over the past month within that metric. Instead, prior tournaments can provide some better guidance in my opinion.
A 12th at the highly correlated Colonial was backed up by a 10th at the RBC Canadian Open, where he ranked 6th on approach and 23rd for driving accuracy. Both required a disproportionate number of shots with wedges.
That has been a key strength for Phillips’ game, ranking only behind Lucas Glover in this field for the key 100-150 yard range in 2024. Combined with three consecutive events gaining +2.80 strokes or more putting makes for an intriguing prospect as a breakout spot for Phillips.
Patton Kizzire – John Deere Classic Betting Tips Best Value
Having hit out DeepDiveGolf Bookie Beater last week (Ryan Fox and Nicolai Hojgaard both to make the cut at +180), it was an easy choice for me where I wanted to convince the TAB to place their bet boost this week.
Kizzire ticks every box for me this week. His record here is impeccable for a golfer at triple figure odds in John Deere Classic betting. A missed cut here in 2023 came off the back of two prior missed cuts. However, his prior finishes here were 16-11-30-25. Those all came off the back of worse results than he is producing now.
He enters this tournament with better incoming form than ever before, with 5/6 finishes 28th or better (4/5 24th or better for individual strokeplay events). He also has compiled three consecutive tournaments gaining on driving accuracy and 3/4 tournaments gaining putting. His only occurrence losing strokes putting here came with the aforementioned missed cut last year. For longer term metrics, he is 8th in this field for SG: APP over the last 6 months. Of course, 3rd in the field for the 100-150 yards range.
Correlations can be easily found. He has a 3rd at Colonial, a 6th at TPC River Highlands, and a 13th and 24th at Sedgefield Country Club. He also holds a win, 7th, 11th, 13th, 16th, and 25th at Wai’alae. Kizzire added an additional 13th place finish there earlier this year for good measure.
Going out in the very first group, I love him for value betting as a John Deere Classic First Round Leader. He was easily marked as our best value this week. Very happy to bet boost his Top 20 odds with our local bookmaker here in New Zealand.
Troy Merritt
Finally, I wrap up our selections with Troy Merritt. It was another fabulous call from our resident projection expert Steven Polardi with his Frisky Biscuit. The controversially named, but always delicious, selection is a player at under 7k in Draftkings salary and low ownership. The ultimate PGA DFS leverage. Merritt was 3rd after 36 holes and finished the tournament in 17th.
Much akin to Chandler Phillips, that is a golf course that doesn’t really suit Merritt on paper. His ability to find fairways make this a much more suitable test, ranking out 17th in this field over the past 12 months for driving accuracy.
He was also 17th in this tournament in 2023, where he also holds a 20th back when this was a much stronger event. Colonial he has a 7th and 17th, along with an 8th at TPC River Highlands. A 9th recently at the low scoring CJ Cup Byron Nelson came at another TPC property (Craig Ranch). It marked his best finish of the year thus far.
Troy Merritt is a full-time member of team no putt. However, he has gained putting in 3/5 recent tournaments with a 4th losing just -0.18 per round. He has gained strokes putting at this event at an eye-catching 6/10 appearances, with another losing just -0.31 per round.
Also of promise is that Merritt has quietly ranked 12th in SG: APP over the last month in this field. The combination of improving driving accuracy, improving approach, and some life with the putter all points to a golfer currently undervalued in John Deere Classic betting markets.
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