RBC Heritage Preview: DeepDiveGolf’s Tournament Analysis, Weather, And Advice DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 1 week ago
RBC Heritage Preview: DeepDiveGolf’s Tournament Analysis, Weather, And Advice DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 1 week ago
Daily Fantasy SportsPGA PGA DFS Picks: The Tokyo Olympics jason mezrahi 3 years ago written by jason mezrahi The Olympics are in full swing and so are the PGA DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel, so we’re bringing you our picks to help find you some gold!PGA DFS pricing for the Olympics is pretty tight this week – and we’ve already lost some big names to COVID, but there’s a path to victory if we’re using the right guys. Let’s get to it!Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!PGA DFS Course Notes:Top-heavy (10 of the world’s top 25) international Olympic field of 60 golfersEarly lock time: Wednesday, July 28 – 6:30 p.m. ESTNo course history (except Japanese golfers, but we have some compsNo cut eventThe course: Kasumigaseki Country Club (East Course)7,400+ yards, Par 71 – Arnold Palmer/Tom Lehman design/consultBentgrass Greens that should be soft/receptive from rain and humidityCourse features little water that’s in play but plenty of bunkers (68)Wider fairways that a typical PGA eventLong course with two 625+ yard Par 5s, three Pars 4s over 500 yardsComps (similar layout/design): Colonial CC, Firestone GC, Riviera CC, Quail Hollow, Shadow Creek, Congaree2016 Defending Gold Medal champ: Justin Rose (N/A)Overall form probably the most important “non-metric” we can look atFocus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach; SG: Ball Striking, SG: Off the Tee, Par 4s Gained (450-500), Sand SavesThe Picks:Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):Collin Morikawa (DK $11,200) – The betting favorite in the Olympics, there’s no flaws to his game right now and the course conditions should keep him firing at flags and making birdies. He’s played well at just about all the course comps over the past couple of seasons and is the best golfer in the field. Fine for cash, GPP – any format you’re playing.Justin Thomas (DK $10,900) – Thomas has not recorded a top 10 on the PGA Tour since his win at the Players Championship, but he’s got four rounds to learn the ropes of this venue and rise to the top of the leaderboard. I have a feeling he’ll be somewhere in the top 5 come Saturday evening, and I’ll have plenty of shares in GPPs.Hideki Matsuyama (DK $10,500) – A positive COVID test forced the Masters champion to withdraw from the Rocket Mortgage and kept him from traveling to Royal St. George’s for the Open Championship. Matsuyama has experience at this course and really wants to win gold for the host country. He also checks all the boxes this week as he’s top 25 on the PGA Tour in SG: Approach, SG: Tee-to-Green, par-5 scoring and FedEx Cup points.Rory McIlroy (DK $10,300) – McIlroy has gained 63.8 strokes total over his past 36 rounds on Tom Fazio designs, and this course seems top be right up his alley. He’s entering this competition playing for Ireland and will be teeing it up alongside Morikawa and Sungjae Im on Wednesday. He’s a great way to start your more balanced teams if you’re fading Morikawa and JT.Paul Casey (DK $9,500) – I considered writing up Patrick Reed, but think he’s more of a GPP play given the last-minute replacement of Bryson DeChambeau and his struggles off the tee recently. While the wider fairways should help Captain America, I prefer the savings we get with Casey, who fares well at no-cut events, finished T15 at the Open Championship and plays well on Fazio courses.Also consider: Xander Schauffele, Viktor Hovland, Patrick Reed (GPP), Shane LowryMid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):Abraham Ancer (DK $9,300) – Ancer seems like a relatively safe play in this price range as he’s a long hitter who’s exceptional off the tee and with his approaches. If he can stay out of the many bunkers that pepper this course, he should fare well enough to challenge for a medal.Cameron Smith (DK $8,900) – The Man of Smoke and Mirrors is a big hitter who excels with his putter – a solid combination on a relatively unknown course where Smith should have the requisite tools to get hot and contend come the weekend. Among the 60 golfers in the field, only Schauffele and Alex Noren have been better with the flat stick over the past 24 rounds.Corey Conners (DK $8,800) – Conners is fourth in the field for SG: OTT over the past 24 rounds and while there are plenty of golfers with more upside around the greens, I have a hard time seeing him finish outside the top 20 here this week. With a little luck and a hot putter, he could notch a top 10 finish.Garrick Higgo (DK $8,300) – A super-talented hitter with a flair for the dramatic, Higgo gets another high-profile start in his young career with this appearance in Tokyo, where he’ll be representing South Africa in his quest for gold. A very intriguing GPP play who may make my single-entry lineup.Mackenzie Hughes (DK $8,000) – I really like the Canadians this week, albeit for different reasons. Whereas Conners gets the nod for his ball-striking, the form that Hughes has shown the last month or so is impressive. It’s very hard to argue against giving him a shot at this still-reduced price point.Si Woo Kim (DK $7,800) – He’s had a bizarre 2020-21 season, but the upside is still there. Way back in January Kim fired a final-round 64 to win The American Express by one stroke over Patrick Cantlay, earning his third PGA Tour victory. This event means a lot, as he skipped the Open Championship to prepare for the Olympics, and a win here would mean he gets to avoid mandatory two-year military service in South Korea – a career obstacle that has hindered many golfers from the Land of the Morning Calm.Sebastian Munoz (DK $7,700) – The Colombian is one of my favorite golfers for value and upside in this tough pricing algorithm, finishing T3 at one of our course comps (Colonial CC) earlier this year at the Charles Schwab Challenge. He’s fifth in this field for SG: Total on Fazio designs over the past 36 rounds and fourth in SG: Putting (on Bentgrass) over his past 24 rounds.Also consider: Sungjae Im, Tommy Fleetwood, Guido Migliozzi, Thomas Pieters, Carlos OrtizValue PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):Jhonattan Vegas (DK $7,400) – Vegas sports excellent SG:OTT numbers, which should help him tremendously on a golf course that seems to favor length a bit over driving accuracy. The no-cut format should help his chances.Rikuya Hoshino (DK $7,300) – Hoshino is a Japanese golfer who finished T26 at the U.S. Open in June. Once we get down in this range, the options are limited, and his experience here is enough of an advantage for me to drop him in a few lineups.Mito Pereira (DK $7,300) –The form has been great, as the Chilean sensation finished T5 (Barbasol) and T6 (3M Open) in consecutive PGA Tour events in July. If we start a GPP lineup with Munoz, Kim, Hoshino and Pereira, we still have $10K per golfer for the remaining two slots.C.T. Pan (DK $7,100) – CT is playing for Chinese Taipei this week, and he’s got plenty of experience in stiff competition. His road to the 2016 Olympics was a long one, but he finished T30 – good enough for me to give him a look this time around as well.Henrik Norlander (DK $6,800) – The last golfer I’ll consider in this range is Norlander, who ranks a distant fifth (behind Casey, Schauffele, Morikawa and Hovland) in the field for SG on Par 5s in the past 24 rounds. He’s a fine way to get some value in your lineups without sacrificing too much upside, since we know he can get it going on the scoring holes.More value golfers for GPPs: Thomas Detry, Matthias Schwab, Ryan Fox, Rory Sabbatini, Anirban LahiriLongshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):Wu Ashun (DK $6,500) – He’s made the cut in nine of his last 10 EURO events, and while there’s no cut here, Ashun has the birdie-making upside to notch a Top 25 finish. He’s an unfamiliar name who could surprise in Tokyo.Fabrizio Zanotti (DK $6,400) – Zanotti finished T15 at the 2016 Olympics in Rio, and he’s the only golfer from Paraguay in the field. Huis most recent finishes are a T65 at the Scottish Open and T33 in the Irish Open – solid considering the glut of unknowns in this price range.Sepp Straka (DK $6,400) – The dynamic Straka should benefit from the layout and format – where one bad round won’t cost you the weekend and a chance at cashing. At just $6,400, I’ll have some shares.Additional punts: Sami Valimaki, Jorge Campillo, Gunn Charoenkul 3 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Daily Fantasy SportsPGA PGA DFS Picks: The Open Championship jason mezrahi 3 years ago written by jason mezrahi This week’s PGA DFS picks article should help you find some winning combinations and focus your player pool for the Open Championship at Royal St. George’s.PGA DFS Course Notes:Field of 156 golfers including the best players in the world36-hole Cut: Top 70 and ties play the weekendNo 2020 tourney; Defending (2019) champion: Shane Lowry (-15)The course: Royal St. George’s Golf Club (Sandwich, England)7,268 yards, Par 70Traditional seaside venue that can be affected by drastic wind changes and weatherBentgrass greensTough links style course with deep bunkers and some OB providing a challengeSome blind tee shots and plenty of humps and bumps that can send balls off trackJust two par 5s and four Par 3s – so Par 70 specialists could fare wellLength not that important, as most par 4s are in the 400-475 rangeWind and rain expected, with 20-25 MPH gusts blowing on Saturday and SundayFocus Stat Categories: SG: Approach, SG: Off the Tee, SG: Around the Green, SG: Tee to Green, Bogey Avoidance, Driving Accuracy, Scrambling, Par 70 (and links) performanceThe Picks:Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):Jon Rahm (DK $11,300) – Despite the lack of a top 10 finish at the Open Championship (his best finish was a T11 at Royal Troon in 2016), Rahm enters the week as the betting favorite and highest priced PGA DFS golfer in the field. There’s no real weakness to his game; he currently leads the PGA TOUR in adjusted scoring – and ranks second in SG: T2G. His ball-striking has been on point this season, he loves links courses and he’s in play for all formats this week.Rory McIlroy (DK $10,900) – I refuse to give up on Rory and think he’s a good GPP play this week in the wake of the missed cut at the Scottish Open – which he jumped into a little late because his wife and child are still stateside. He may end up being the lowest-owned golfer in the $10K+ range and that’s what we’re looking for since his upside is still in the trophy-hoisting territory. “Rors” is both familiar with this giant-killer venue (T25 here in 2011) and the elements that could stymie a large portion of the PGA DFS field.Brooks Koepka ($10,700) – Because of his impressive history in majors (four wins in the past five years) and the Open Championship (three top 10s since 2015), Koepka isn’t cheap, but he’s a fine GPP play. The polarizing figure was a 13-year-old spectator in 2003 when Ben Curtis won at Royal St. George’s, and while he said Tuesday morning (in an interview that had the NYT writing about it) that while this isn’t his favorite British Open venue in the venerable rotation, there’s no reason to leave him off your builds with his uncanny ability to compete in the world’s biggest tournaments.Jordan Spieth (DK $9,700) – The former Open champion (2017 at Royal Birkdale) is impressive on links courses and has the requisite elements to his game is solid form heading into this week’s test. We have plenty of options in the $7,000-7,500 range this week if we’re rostering Rahm-Spieth to start, and if we’re fading Rahm there’s a great route to balanced builds that start with Spieth as the highest spend ($8K+ remining per golfer). I’ll be hoping to land around 25-40% ownership in GPPs.Also consider: Dustin Johnson, Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas (GPP)Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):Louis Oosthuizen (DK $9,300) – There’s not much more to say about the former Open champion than what Sia said in his U.S. Open Initial picks piece and what I covered in the picks column leading into Torrey Pines, when he finished solo second after being edged out by Rahm. He’s not playing in the Olympics, so this tournament has to be an important one for him as he continues playing solid golf in the late summer/early autumn of his fantastic career. He’s a guy I love in basically all the majors for PGA DFS, but I know he’ll be popular this week.Viktor Hovland (DK $9,100) – Hovland – the No. 14 golfer in the world – became the first Norwegian winner in the history of the European tour when he prevailed at the BMW International Open in Germany a couple weeks ago, and his steady play and positive attitude should help him navigate the inexorable bounces and bumps of Royal St. George’s. The only drawback is his last of experience, as this will be his Open Championship debut, and it’s one of those things that’s got Sia concerned, as he explains in the breakdown.Patrick Reed ($8,800) – While I’m a little skeptical that Reed can endure the elements and win the Open Championship, he’s certainly in play at this low price because of his ability to finish in the top 15. The form isn’t great, and his accuracy could be a problem here, but the ironically nicknamed “Captain America” loves to play the villain and he’s a shrewd large-field GPP play with an elite short game.Paul Casey (DK $8,600) – Casey disappointed with a T54 at this venue in 2011 (a third-round 78 the main culprit), and his Open Championship finishes have left a bit to be desired through the years. But he’s a much more consistent golfer these days and has six top 10 finishes in his last 10 tournaments, so I like his chances for a top 10 this week, especially at this relatively fair price. Tony Finau (DK $8,400) – I’ve said “never again” after being burned by Terrible Tony many times, but the talent level is off the charts and the price is a reasonable one despite two straight MCs at the U.S. Open and Travelers. Finau has not missed a cut at the Open Championship in four tries, and three of those attempts have yielded Top 20 finishes (solo third in 2019, T9 in 2018, T18 in 2016). He probably circled this on the schedule the minute he trudged off the 18th green at Torrey Pines, and I will be surprised (and angry) if he sabotages my GPP lineups again this week.Matt Fitzpatrick (DK $7,900) – As you may have noticed if you’re a regular reader of PGA DFS Picks, Fitzpatrick is one of my favorite golfers to roster in single-entry and all types of GPPs, and I’ll continue that approach this week at Royal St. George’s – a venue where he should thrive – despite the disappointment of coming off a playoff loss to Min Woo Lee at the Scottish Open. His best finish in the Open Championship was the most recent iteration in 2019 (T20), and I believe he’s ready to break through with a top 10 (or better) this time around – when distance is not as important (it’s even shorter than it was in 2011) and he can plot his way around the golf course. In fact, Fitzpatrick came here last year (after having been told that he wasn’t going to enjoy it because of the blind shots and uneven lies) shot 67 and loved the course.Shane Lowry (DK $7,900) – The defending champion is under $8K this week, and that alone puts him in play in all formats, even if he’s exceedingly popular. Lowry performs well in weather and wind, and he was the only player who didn’t collapse in the gale-force gusts that plagued the final round at Royal Portrush Golf Club in 2019. There’s plenty of PGA DFS upside in this price range, and both Fitzpatrick and Lowry make for fine core plays in all kinds of builds.Sergio Garcia (DK $7,600) – His last Top 5 at a British Open came in 2016, but he finished T9 here in 2011. He’s far from a safe play and I wouldn’t touch him in cash games despite the low price, but he’s a great GPP option given his upside and the dynamic quality of game and ball-striking prowess. He’s had a hard time closing things out this season, with some good rounds giving way to PGA DFS tumbles over the weekend, but he’s in play at this venue in large-field GPPs.Also consider: Collin Morikawa (GPP), Tyrrell Hatton, Patrick Cantlay, Webb Simpson, Scottie Scheffler (GPP), Jason Day, Joaquin Niemann, Abraham AncerValue PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):Francesco Molinari (DK $7,300) – The talented Italian won the Open Championship in 2018 and finished T11 in 2019 – impressive finishes that show he can handle links style courses with the best of them. He missed the cut at Royal St. George’s in 2011, but a decade of additional experience in major championships should help him this week.Harris English (DK $7,300) – English has piled up the top 10 finishes this season (seven), and he’s one of just five golfers to notch two wins on tour this season. In the focus stats/metrics, he checks some crucial boxes for Royal St. George’s, ranking eighth in SG:T2G and seventh in Bogey Avoidance over his past three tournaments. He’s also missed the weekend just once in five Open appearances and has made cuts in 13 consecutive majors – something that makes him a solid play for single-entry and cash games as well as large-field GPPs.Rickie Fowler (DK $7,300) – Fowler is teeing it up in his 11th Open Championship, with only one MC at this event (and three finishes of T6 or better – including a T2 from 2014 and a T5 at Royal St. George’s in 2011. That level of experience is a big help, and he’s finally rounding into form after a rough stretch in late 2020/early 2021. The fan favorite has now secured a weekend pass in three of his last four starts (T8, T11, MC and T32) and the impressive T8 was at the year’s second major – the PGA Championship at Kiawah Island.Robert MacIntyre (DK $7,300) – MacIntyre is right there with the rest of the high-upside players at this price point, even if PGA Tour golf fans aren’t that familiar with his record. Bobby Mac impressed at the Royal Portrush in 2019 at his Open Championship (and major tournament) debut, concluding in difficult conditions with a final round 68 and eventual T6 finish. He’s now ranked No. 53 in the world, making the cut at five straight majors – a T12 at the Masters this April his best major finish since the 2019 Open. MacIntyre shot under par in all four rounds last week and posted a T18 at the Renaissance Club in the Scottish Open – a links with at least a passing resemblance to Royal St. George’s. Excluding a COVID-related withdrawal at the Irish Open recently, The Scotsman has made a remarkable 25 of his last 26 cuts worldwide and may even be viable in cash games this week.Branden Grace (DK $7,200) – Grace is usually hit-or-miss in major championships, but he arrives sporting some good form due to some sparkling iron play over his last dozen or so rounds. He has a history of going low at the Open, dating back to his 62 in Round three Saturday at Royal Birkdale in 2017 – when he finished T6 with Koepka, Marc Leishman, Alex Noren and Matthew Southgate at -4. The 33-year-old South African also finished inside the top 20 at the Open Championship in 2015, and arrives at this week’s edition on the heels of two consecutive top seven finishes on the PGA Tour, including a T7 at the 2021 U.S. Open.Ian Poulter (DK $7,200) – Since missing the cut at Royal St. George’s in 2011 (which surely sticks in his craw), Poulter has a spotty history at the Open Championship with five MCs and three top 15s – a testament to his dynamic play and viability as a GPP play. His 2021 record is actually a lot more steady: Since the PGA Championship, he’s 6-for-6 with two top five finishes including T4 at the Scottish open this past week.Alex Noren (DK $7,200) – Noren has a distinguished record at the Open Championship, finishing T11 with Rahm, JT, Molinari and Tom Lewis in 2019 and earning top 10s in 2017 and 2012. He’s also finished among the top 15 (including a T4 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic) in two of the past three starts, sporting excellent T2G numbers in that stretch. I wouldn’t pencil him into all my single-entry lineups, but I’m willing to take as stab in the lower-fee SE and in all types of large-field GPPs.Matt Kuchar (DK $7,000) – Kuchar is my choice for sneaky veteran bargain play – especially on a course that’s not all about mashing and/or the traditional “target” golf that’s played on a lot of the modern stateside venues. He’s fared well at the open Championship in the past and finished solo second at Royal Birkdale in 2017. In fact, he’s made nine out of his last 10 cuts in this tournament (and eight straight), the only outlier being the 2011 edition at – you guessed it – Royal St. George’s. The revenge narrative is strong this week and Kuchar should be low-owned with Top 10 upside.Lucas Herbert (DK $6,800) – The woefully mispriced Herbert won at the Irish Open two weeks ago and notched a T4 in Scotland last week, so he’s in fine form heading into the Open. The plucky Australian also finished inside the top 20 at a couple of relatively prestigious PGA Tour events – the Memorial and the Travelers. He’s now won a couple times in his past 23 starts worldwide and should offer plenty of value as you construct your builds this week.Lucas Glover (DK $6,600) – Hey – it’s another cheap Lucas! Glover is coming off a huge win at the John Deere Classic, snapping a winning drought that lasted over 10 years, and he should be excited about playing a course where he posted his best-ever finish at the Open Championship – a T12 in 2011. Winning two weeks in a row and collecting just his second major championship is a tall order – no doubt – but he’s a risk-reward play that won’t cost you very much to roster.More value golfers to consider: Phil Mickelson (GPP), Lee Westwood, Daniel Berger (GPP), Thomas Detry, Matt Wallace, Russell Henley (GPP), Min Woo Lee, Corey Conners (GPP), Danny Willett, Erik van Rooyen (GPP), Kevin Kisner, Stewart Cink, Richard Bland, Adam Long (GPP)Longshot Punts (DK $6,500 and under):Justin Harding (DK $6,500) – More of a single day (first-round?) showdown longshot, Justin Harding heads into the 2021 The Open Championship at Royal St. George’s Golf Club with insanely long (+35000) odds to win, but he’s in play due to the fact that he made the cut and finished 41st in his last appearance at this event in 2019, and he’s super cheap. I’m targeting him for 1/20 GPP entries. Chris Kirk (DK $6,400) – Kirk made three of his last five cuts, but he’s 17-for-23 this season – decent for a golfer under $6,500. While he missed the cut during his last British Open appearance in 2016, he’s a much better golfer now and should be up to the challenge personally and professionally. Like Harding, I’ll find a place for him in 1/20 large-field GPP entries.Johannes Veerman (DK $6,100) – Veerman posted a T3 at the Irish Open two weeks ago and is coming off a T8 at the Scottish Open, so the form is solid. He’s seemingly a fans of links-style courses and while he’s a virtual unknown who could boom or bust this week, the price is dirt cheap and he’s one of the better low-cost options in the $6K range – which we’ll need to peruse if we’re going full-on stars and scrubs. He might be my favorite play under $6,600, so I’m willing to click him into 5-10% of my large-field GPPs (and one or two of my 20-max entries).Additional GPP punts: Sebastian Munoz, Carlos Ortiz, Marcus Armitage, Jason Scrivener, Sam Burns, Chan Kim 3 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Daily Fantasy SportsPGA PGA DFS Picks: The U.S. Open at Torrey Pines jason mezrahi 3 years ago written by jason mezrahi This week we have a stacked field and find you some winning PGA DFS teams at the highly demanding and difficult Torrey Pines South Course in the U.S. Open!PGA DFS Course Notes:Star-studded major championship field of 156 golfers that includes amateur and local and international pro qualifiers36-hole Cut: Top 60 and ties play the weekend (just 38.46% of the field)The course: Torrey Pines South Course (La Jolla, CA)Over 7,700 yards, Par 71 – William Bell, Sr. (1957) with Rees Jones redesign (2001, 2019)Long and brutal seaside/cliffside courseScene of Tiger Woods’s epic 2008 U.S. Open victory over Rocco MediateTees and fairways are Kikuyu overseeded with Rye; unpredictable (and often bumpy) Poa annua greensClassic U.S. open layout with long, thick rough that will require punch-outs and cause a few lost balls (and PGA DFS frustration)Putting (and Three-Putt Avoidance) will be key, as 4-8 foots putts drop just below the 2/3 make rate (normally 68-70%) on these complex, tiered greensLong Par 4s require good long iron play from >200 yardsWeather should be pleasant this week, but greens could bake and make putting and approaches very difficultFocus Stat Categories: SG: Approach, SG: OTT, SG: Putting (Bentgrass/Poa), SG: Around the Green, SG: Tee to Green, Bogey Avoidance, Three-Putt Avoidance (3PA, for short), Par 4s: 450-500, Driving DistanceThe Picks:Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):Jon Rahm (DK $11,200) – Rahm’s only flaws seem to be mental, but he seemed mature, reflective and generally loose and comfortable during his interview on Tuesday, even when peppered with a lot of questions about the COVID snafu and how that all transpired. Rahmbo is No. 12 on tour in SG: APP this season, and he’s second and third (respectively) in SG: T2G and SG: OTT. He was playing great golf at the Memorial before he had to withdraw, and the 2017 Farmers champion LOVES Torrey Pines (T7-2-T5-T29-WIN in his last five years here). The Spaniard also finished second at the 2019 U.S. Open at Pebble Beach, so he’s definitely in play – I just worry a bit about his quick backswing and equally quick temper on a course that will play tougher than it usually does.Dustin Johnson (DK $10,700) – As always, my main concern is putting with DJ, who doesn’t make a whole lot of 5-10 footers, a stat that is crucial at the U.S. Open – and a reason I’m not looking too hard at Hideki Matsuyama this week (despite the currentMasters champ’s amazing long iron play and decent record at Torrey Pines). Of course, because DJ’s PGA DFS ownership should be relatively low this week, his talent and length make him a fine contrarian play for GPPs. If I come in slightly ahead of field ownership, I’ll be happy, because there’s no need to go all-in with this guy, even if he is the OWGR No. 1.Rory McIlroy (DK $9,900) – Like DJ, I’m interested in Rory because of his projected ownership (even if it creeps up a bit as we approach Thursday morning), and he’s under $10K this week in a tournament he has every intention of winning. I’ll talk more about the likely chalky Xander Schauffele later, but starting off a lineup with McIlroy and X-Man still leaves you with $7,700 per golfer (Phil Mickelson’s price this week), a strategy I’ll be using in several GPP lineups. Rory still kills it off the tee and knows how to grind out even par and one-under rounds in tough conditions, and the baby discount could help us by allowing a roster construction that avoids playing a bomb elsewhere in that dicey low-mid range.Collin Morikawa (DK $9,500) – Morikawa’s elite ball-striking (he basically gains anywhere from five to ten strokes per round on approach) will probably keep him in any golf tournament at this point, but the difficulty of these Poa annua greens may prevent him from winning another major until the next Masters or PGA Championship. Still, he’s a fine PGA DFS cash game anchor because even on the most difficult surfaces, his spectacular iron play keeps him on the leaderboard.Also consider: Bryson DeChambeau (GPP), Brooks Koepka, Justin Thomas (GPP)Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):Xander Schauffele (DK $9,300) – Schauffele checks all the boxes this week and makes a lot of 5-10 footers (No. 10 on tour). Currently the No. 6 player in the world, he also finished second here at the Farmers in January during a 2019-2021 run that included nine straight Top 17s and a remarkable 17 straight Top 25s. His missed cuts at the Players and PGA Championship could keep a few folks away, but I like him in all formats this week (cash or tourney) and he’ll be a staple of my single-entry and large-field GPPs.Patrick Reed (DK $9.000) – Reed is No. 1 on tour in 3PA, which is going to be one of those stats that should help weed out similarly priced players in single-entry GPPs. It sounds as if preventing meltdowns on these putting surfaces could be a huge help in making the cut and getting in contention, and while Reed’s extremely spotty off the tee, his putter will keep him in most tournaments. His projected PGA DFS ownership is still pretty high, but again – we can find some leverage elsewhere if we need to.Tony Finau (DK $8,900) – I may prefer spending the extra few hundred on Schauffele or Cantlay in cash games, but Finau has played sparkling golf at Torrey Pines in the past five years (T2-T6-T13-T6-T4) – albeit under less difficult conditions. And while he’s not electric with the flatstick, he ranks in the top 50 on tour this week in 3PA. Winning a U.S. Open for your second PGA Tour victory is a bit of a stretch, but we know he can finish in the Top 15, which he’s done in all three U.S. opens when he’s made the cut, including a T8 in 2020.Will Zalatoris (DK $8,600) –A great ball striker who can putt a bit and likes both Poa annua and Torrey Pines, his length will help navigate some of the distance on the long par 4s and he’s already shown an ability to contend on the big stages of major championships. I don’t think his ownership will be oppressively high – at least to the point where he’s a bad play in large-field GPPs, and even if he lands in the 15-20% range, I’m buying.Louis Oosthuizen (DK $8,100) – I’ll be including Oosty in my PGA DFS player pool for just about every major unless the back injuries that have plagued him in the past flare up – even if it’s hard to tell when that may happen. The swing is still very pure, and he’s an elite putter from 5-10 feet (ranking first on the PGA Tour this season). Sweet Louie is just very hard to get away from when I’m perusing this price range.Cameron Smith (DK $8,000) – I love how Smith’s game developed in 2021, and while his overall SG numbers are decent, the thing that separates him from a lot of other golfers in this range is his elite putting. He’s solid at getting up and down and he doesn’t three-putt that much because he one-putts 44.15% of the time! Sia talked a bit about him in the Breakdown and I’ll be overweight on the field. While his ball-striking remains the biggest concern, I’m willing to take a stab and play the Aussie in single-entry for some leverage.Jason Kokrak (DK $7,600) – Aside from Phil and his astounding win at Kiawah Island, Kokrak has probably had the best 2020-21 of anybody in this range, with his first two career wins coming at the CJ CUP in October 2020 and another victory at the Charles Schwab at the end of May. Kokrak has massive upside for a guy who’s easy to roster in all kinds of builds, and he’s made the cut in his last three U.S. Opens, including a T17 at Winged Foot in 2020.Also consider: Viktor Hovland, Patrick Cantlay, Webb Simpson, Scottie Scheffler (GPP), Tyrrell Hatton (Cash), Matt Fitzpatrick (GPP), Phil Mickelson (GPP), Shane LowryValue PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):Marc Leishman (DK $7,400) – Leishman has burned me more times than I can count, but I refuse to give in to the “never again” thinking that keeps DFS pros from winning GPPs. I might not make him a staple of my single-entry builds, but he’s certainly in play in most formats at this price point and has a truly impressive course history at Torrey Pines (T18-WIN-T43-T8-T14 in his last five Farmers Insurance appearances). Leishman is adept at hitting some different shot shapes – a helpful trait this week – and he’s a solid enough putter to post a Top 5 or 10 finish, an attainable goal in this price range.Harris English (DK $7,300) – His form has come around a bit since a few MCs earlier in 2021, and he’s made the cut at all five U.S. Opens he’s participated in, including a T4 in 2020 at Winged Foot. The downside is that he’s missed three straight cuts at the Farmers after some moderate success in 2017 and 2018 (T8 and T14). He may be flying under the radar a bit, but we can double-check ownership projections before lock and make some adjustments to our exposure in GPPs.Stewart Cink (DK $7,200) – We’ve talked before about Cink’s resurgence and solid numbers off the tee, but it’s important to point out how much experience he has at this venue. This will be his first U.S. Open appearance since 2017, when he finished T46 at Erin Hills, but there’s still plenty of game left in his old bones. I’ll be using Cink at about a 10-15% rate in my 20-max and large-field GPPs.Ryan Palmer (DK $7,100) – A course horse with a pair of second-place finishes in the Farmers over the past four years, Palmer has missed his last two U.S. Open cuts but stands to benefit from his familiarity with this popular tour venue. I’m most concerned with how he handles the longer rough this week, but he checks most of the boxes in our focus stat categories (No. 34 on tour in SG:OTT) and seems underpriced given his upside.Ian Poulter (DK $7,000) – Poulter is coming off a T30 at the PGA Championship, a T3 at the Charles Schwab, and most recently a T25 at Congaree in the Palmetto Championship, and he’s well known for solid numbers on Poa annua greens and from 5-10 feet. The length of Torrey Pines could be an issue this week, but for this bargain price, I consider him worthy of a few GPP entries.Brendan Todd (DK $6,900) – Another putting specialist who can elevate his game to the next level when he’s striking it well, Todd’s biggest challenge will be overcoming the 20-30 yards of distance he’ll be losing to the longer hitters in the field and hitting approaches from 175-200+. He’s GPP only because of his struggles off the tee and on those longer approach shots, but he’s still in my player pool as of now for his short game prowess.Lanto Griffin (DK $6,800) – I’m a little surprised Griffin isn’t more than $7K this week based on his metrics and course history, which include a T7 at the Farmers this year and a T12 in 2018. With four MCs over his last five tournaments, the form is pretty ugly, but the venue and his skill set portend a better finish more along the lines of the steady stretch of Top 35 he posted in February and March. Justin Suh (DK $6,600) – A USC standout who’s often forgotten among all-star crop of 2019 rookies, Suh has yet to make his mark on the PGA Tour but has played Torrey Pines 20+ times in his life. It won’t be playing as easily as it probably did during his junior and collegiate days, but Suh qualified last week to tee it up again here – and he could make for a decent final piece in a few GPP lineups.More value golfers to consider: Gary Woodland, Adam Scott, Brian Harman (Cash), Charley Hoffman, Max Homa (GPP), Christian Bezuidenhout (GPP), Carlos Ortiz (GPP), Charl Schwartzel (Cash), Kevin Kisner, Mackenzie Hughes (GPP), Jhonattan Vegas (GPP), Adam Hadwin, Wyndham ClarkLongshot Punts (DK $6,500 and under):Patrick Rodgers (DK $6,500) – He made the cut at the U.S. Opens in 2016 and 2018, and he’s had some special individual rounds this season. He also has two top 10 finishes at Torrey Pines in the past five years and while he’s not known as a guy who can put together four good rounds, if he shines in the first two days he could finish among the Top 25 and make value.Chan Kim (DK $6,100) – Kim is worth slotting into a few GPP entries based on his near-minimum salary, where he’s basically the only one I’ll be using. Nick “Stix” Bretwisch turned me onto the South Korean’s game, and while he’s yet to make the cut in his previous three U.S Open appearances, he’s got the lowest betting odds in this range and he does have a T11 at the R&A’s Open Championship in 2017.Additional GPP punts: Brendan Steele, Jimmy Walker, Sam Ryder, J.J. Spaun 3 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Daily Fantasy SportsPGA PGA DFS Picks: The Palmetto Championship jason mezrahi 3 years ago written by jason mezrahi In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a monster payday at the Palmetto Championship and helping you find some winning teams!PGA DFS Course Notes:Full but weak field (because of U.S. Open next week at Torrey Pines) of 156 golfers36-hole Cut: Top 65 and ties play the weekendFirst-time (and one-time) PGA Tour stop – replacing Canadian Open this year due to COVID restrictionsThe course: Congaree Golf Club (Ridgeland, SC)> 7,600 yards, Par 71 – Tom Fazio design (2018)New course in lower SC near Georgia borderBermuda Greens with runoff areas and tight chipping lies, wider fairways that could help longer hitters a bitFlat course with natural hazards and sandy areas, not many trees or heavy roughLong but playable, so low scores are possibleLayout resembles Ross’s Pinehurst No. 2 but some Fazio course comps can be found (Seaside Course at Sea Island, Conway Farms)Focus Stat Categories (with no data to draw from, standard areas of ball-striking focus make sense): SG: Approach, SG: OTT, SG: Tee to Green, SG: Putting (Bermuda), SG: Around the Green, Par 4s: 450-500,The Picks:Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):Dustin Johnson (DK $11,400) – While DJ has not played his best golf lately, he’s a South Carolina guy on a course down near the Cackalacka/Georgia border, he’s playing a new course with coastal/links characteristics that he seems to prefer, and he’s the most talented golfer in the field (with Brooks Koepka a close second). His SG:APP and SG:OTT numbers are still in the Top 30 on the tour and he’s No. 13 in SG: T2G. If DJ can keep the putter going on what should be a fast course, there’s no reason he can’t lap the field and run away with this tournament.Brooks Koepka (DK $11,100) – Koepka seems to be recovered from most of his knee woes and is having a great time playfully feuding with Bryson DeChambeau, but I still can’t trust him at this price in cash games. He’s totally fine for GPPs, but without too many quality value options below the $7K mark (don’t worry – we’ve got a couple in there for you), he might not make as many rosters as you’d anticipate with such a dramatic difference in ability between the top two and the rest of the field. I’d steer clear of overexposure with him, but he’ll be mixed into a few of my GPP lineups for sure.Matt Fitzpatrick (DK $10,400) – It’s going to be tough to find anybody we feel safe rostering in the $9K to $10K range, but Fitzpatrick makes for a fine GPP play on a course where he should feel at home despite the lack of history. He likes these putting surfaces and these speeds, and he’s one of several English golfers who should be in contention this week. His SG: OTT and putting numbers are excellent, and like Joel and Sia, I feel like there’s progression coming in his SG: APP metrics.Tommy Fleetwood (DK $9,500) – Fleetwood is a risky play this week, and he’s not a guy I’d normally consider given his current mediocre form. His best 2021 result so far is a T5 at the WGC Match Play event, with his best stroke play finish a T10 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. With no PGA tour victories to his credit in his young career, he shouldn’t be too popular. That said, he’s going to win on the PGA Tour eventually (just like Fitzpatrick will), and a weak field event on a links-style course like this could be the breakthrough.Also consider: Tyrrell Hatton, Harris English (GPP)Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):Ian Poulter (DK $9,200) – Sharps are loving Poulter’s recent form and while he’s proven to be maddeningly inconsistent from week-to-week in the past, there’s not a lot of competition in this range. The fourth English golfer I’ve mentioned (and that doesn’t even count the guy actually named English), he’s the best in that group with the putter (7th on the PGA Tour in SG: Putting) and riding a hot streak heading into an unknown venue – a good sign when we don’t have a lot of data to work from.Patton Kizzire (DK $9,100) – I don’t mind paying a premium for Kizzire on a course where he should play really well. I love playing the big galoot on courses with wider fairways where he doesn’t have as much trouble keeping it in the short stuff, and he’s made significant improvements in his approach game to match his elite putting metrics. I’ll be overweight on Kizzire in all formats and he’ll be a core play on my single-entry builds.Lucas Glover (DK $8,600) – He’ll likely be chalky, as the former Clemson Tiger is actually one of Congaree’s “Professional Ambassadors” – and someone with intimate knowledge of the course and its pitfalls. This course is also seemingly tailor-made to fit his strengths. The price is okay and for that reason, I’ll likely be ahead of the field in GPPs and he’ll be a core play on my single-entry builds.Harold Varner (DK $8,500) – Once again, I’m with Sia in hating when Varner gets chalky, because that’s precisely when he seems to disappoint. Still, he’s from SC and shouldn’t have too many problems scoring well at Congaree. His T2 at the RBC Heritage points to an ability to notch a top 5 when his game comes together, and the price seems fair considering his upside in a field of this lesser quality.Brandt Snedeker (DK $8,400) –He’s not the best ball-striker (or even a good one), but Sneds is a putting demon and the pressure could be off a bit with his driver since it’ll be easier for him to hit fairways. The tour veteran has made every cut since the Players Championship (with three Top 20s), and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him threatening the lead this weekend. He’s always a bit risky, but that risk is mitigated a bit at Congaree.Martin Laird (DK $7,800) – Laird isn’t a super exciting play, but he grades out well for this golf course (at least for what we think we know about this golf course) and he’s made seven of his last eight cuts. The wily Scot was T23 at the PGA Championship, and has a solid all-around game T2G, but does struggle with the putter. That might not be as much of a problem on these fast surfaces and green complexes. He’s worth a look in GPPs.Vincent Whaley (DK $7,700) – Whaley makes sense in all PGA DFS formats, and he’s one of the safer plays once we get under $8K. Since a missed cut at the Waste Management Open, Whaley has put together a pretty impressive string of made cuts (T50-T15-T36-T28-T34-T29-T26-T26-T20). While he didn’t appear at either of 2021’s major championships, he’s not tanking anybody’s PGA DFS lineups at this price point if he continues to grind out Sunday paychecks for himself.Ben Martin (DK $7,600) – Martin has sloughed off the nagging back problems that stymied his career in 2017-18, when he was forced to take a leave of absence from the PGA Tour, and he’s another Clemson alum from South Carolina who’s seen a resurgence in 2021. He missed the cut at the RBC Heritage but has posted four top 35 finishes (including a T11 at the Wells Fargo and a T9 at the Corales Puntacana) among his last five tour starts.Also consider: Garrick Higgo, Alex Noren, Kevin Kisner, Jhonattan Vegas (GPP), Scott Stallings (Cash) Luke List (GPP), Pat Perez (GPP), Sepp Straka, Rory SabbatiniValue PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):Bo Hoag (DK $7,500) – Hoag missed six straight cuts in March and April before squeezing into the weekend at the birdie-forward AT&T Byron Nelson and finishing T13 at the Memorial last week. Still – that’s a good trend going into a golf course that plays to his strengths and where there are no sure things. That uncertainty should keep the masses off him at this elevated price, and he’s a perfectly sound risk-reward upside play at the Palmetto Championship.Bronson Burgoon (DK $7,200) – I love deploying Burgoon on venues that could turn into birdie fests, and he’s a bigger hitter who may have been waiting to play this course, since his last start was a T13 at the Byron Nelson. He’s got plenty of PGA DFS bust potential as well, but the looming latent boom is what I’m focusing on, as he’ll come in at low ownership and be a fine value play in GPPs.Joseph Bramlett (DK $7,100) – Bramlett collected the second top 10 of his PGA Tour career at the Byron Nelson, racking up 20 total birdies and two eagles. He’s probably not safe for cash games or single-entry, but I love the value in large-field GPPs and I’ll be coming in around 20% ownership in my 20-max entries.Hank Lebioda (DK $6,900) – Hammerin’ Hank checks a lot of the SG:APP boxes this week and fared well (T13) at the Byron Nelson, his most PGA Tour recent appearance. His last two starts before that yielded a T13 (Valspar) and a T51 (Wells Fargo), but he’s a volatile golfer who might be hard to trust in single-entry. Sia likes the sneakiness and I don’t disagree; I’ll have plenty of shares in large-field and 20-max GPPs, though.John Pak (DK $6,900) – The 22-year-old Pak is playing in his first event as a pro, and it’s a debut where the field doesn’t have any advantage in terms of course history. That puts him squarely on my radar as a solid unknown bargain GPP play and a guy I’ll have lots of exposure to. He’s got plenty of game and the college accolades that go along with it, and we’ve seen players of his pedigree make the switch to professional golf without much of a learning curve. Giddyup.Chesson Hadley (DK $6,700) – Hadley is an excellent putter who takes advantage of scoring opportunities – which really interests me at this price point. He’s had his struggles in 2021 but seems like a poor man’s Snedeker who can get hot with the flastick and get in the mix. At such a huge discount on a venue where he could easily find his game and make a run on the weekend, I’m buying.More value golfers to consider: Seamus Power (GPP), Erik van Rooyen, Richy Werenski, Jason Dufner, Scott Piercy, Tom Lewis, Henrik Norlander, Roger Sloan, Cole Hammer, Chez Reavie, Will GordonLongshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):Aaron Baddeley (DK $6,500) – The $6,500 and under range at a weak-field event is usually bad, but this group doesn’t have a whole lot of upside. Baddeley, however, with his solid putter and grinder mindset, seems like a viable punt play. Nobody down here is worth more than 5-10% exposure in GPPs, but I’m hitching my wagon to the Aussie as one of the guys I’ll use at that limited rate.Kristoffer Ventura (DK $6,400) – Once again, I’ll include Ventura considering just how good he is with the putter, a factor that could weigh more heavily this week on a course that not too many of these guys have played. I’ll stay south of 10% in my GPP exposure, but I do like his upside this week.Additional GPP punts: Hudson Swafford, Brian Gay, Chris Baker, Bo Van Pelt, William McGirt 3 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Daily Fantasy SportsPGA PGA DFS Picks: Corales Puntacana Championship jason mezrahi 3 years ago written by jason mezrahi While the best in the world tee it up in match play, we’re digging for golden PGA DFS picks in the Corales Puntacana Championship, the alternate event!PGA DFS Course Notes:Alternate event (to WGC Match Play) features weak field of 132 golfers2020 Winner: Hudson SwaffordThe course: Corales Golf Club, Cominican Republic (Tom Fazio design)Par 72 (7,600+ yards)Coastal resort course with wide, easy-to-hit fairways and not much punishment in roughLess than driver even works, and it’s largely a second-shot golf course where you can dial in your irons because there’s less run-outSlower, paspalum greensWind, when it blows – and it looks to be about 15-20 MPH – favors the better putters and chippersCorrelative courses include El Camaleon (Mayakoba) and Grand Reserve (Puerto Rico Open)Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, SG: Putting, SG: Off the Tee, SG: Around the Green, Par 4 scoringThe Picks:Elite Golfers (DK $9,500 and up):Thomas Pieters (DK $11,100) – The Europeans are led by Pieters and another Thomas (Detry), and while Pieters fares a little better in my admittedly basic and incomplete model (since we don’t have a lot of data from this course to go from), Detry has some experience here. Pieters isn’t a priority for me, especially at this price, but he’s worth a look in GPPs if his ownership stays low.Emiliano Grillo (DK $10,800) – Grillo is No. 2 overall on my model and the elite ball striker typically plays these resort course well because they don’t have overly complicated putting complexes – and area where he struggles. He’ll be popular but I’m fine using him in single-entry GPP and will be doubling the field % in my 20-max.Charley Hoffman (DK $10,000) – Hoffman could be the most popular player in the field and he’s pretty safe for cash games, though I’d steer clear in GPPs if you want some leverage. He had a T14 here last year, has a win at correlated El Camaleon and makes for a safe play in wind.Nate Lashley (DK $9,500) – Lashley doesn’t pop overwhelmingly on the model but he won here in 2017 and finished fourth last year. I like him for GPP single entry and most any format, as he’s decent in wind as well. Also consider: Thomas Detry, Danny Willett (GPP), Jhonattan VegasPGA DFS Mid-Range (DK $7,600 to $9,400):Brandon Wu (DK $9,200) – Wu might be best deployed in GPPs, and if his ownership stays below 13-15% I think we’re in business. The data I have says he can handle high winds (No. 12 in the field in SG:APP in windy conditions) and he’s a talented golfer who I starting to get some confidence in these events.Lee Hodges (DK $9,100) – Folks might get turned off the high price on this PGA newcomer, but that should be a big help in GPPs, where he’ll fly under the radar. He played well in Puerto Rico (sharing the first-round lead) and he’s No. 44 on my model.Sam Ryder (DK $9,000) – Ryder is shaping up to be a popular play but he’s had limited success in this event, finishing T12 in 2017. He’s top 10 in my model and he loves the wind.Luke List (DK $8,900) – List should eat this course up, as he’s another player who can go low when he’s dialed in with his irons and peppering flagsticks. He finished T8 here last year and is a decent bet for another Top 10.Justin Suh (DK $8,700) – Suh debuted here last year with a T14 but we don’t have much in the way of high wind data for him. He’s a risky play but e know he can putt and that usually helps in these conditions.Chase Seifert (DK $8,000) – Folks must be looking at a lot of the same data as I am, because Seifert is fourth overall in my model, just $8K, and awfully popular on the ownership projections.Brice Garnett (DK $8,000) – Garnett won here in 2018 and his recent form has been interesting, with MCs at the Players and Pebble Beach but a T25 at the Honda Classic and T5 at the Puerto Rico Open in similar conditions. I’m hoping he stays under 15% in GPPs.Peter Uihlein (DK $7,800) – Uihlein makes for a solid GPP play this week, as his ownership should stay under 5% and he’s looking pretty good in my models. The wind might be an issue for him but if I’m 10% ownership or so he can’t hurt me too badly.Also consider: Tom Lewis, Brandon Hagy, Sepp Straka, Will Gordon, Patrick Rodgers, Taylor Pendrith (GPP), Joel Dahmen (cash), Adam SchenkPGA DFS Value (DK $6,600 to 7,500):Pat Perez (DK $7,400) – He’s fifth on my overall model and I love rooting for him. I’ll try to be around 15-20% in GPPs. Two of his three career wins have come on Paspalum, so0 he’s in play, even for SE.Kristoffer Ventura (DK $7,300) – Ventura could be the best putter in the field and is worth a look in GPPs. I won’t exceed 10% on my shares but he’ll be in some of my builds. He’s missed tow straight cuts but was T49 at the Puerto Rico Open.Aaron Baddeley (DK $7,300) – Baddeley should also fly under the radar, and he’s another excellent putter who notched a T7 here in 2019. He’s No, 12 overall in my model and might end up making my single-entry team at this bargain price.Roberto Castro (DK $6,900) – There are balanced builds and balanced golfers, and Castro fits the later definition with his even-handed approach across the focus stat categories, where he ranks no better than No. 22 (SG:APP) and no worse than No. 56 (SG:P). He makes sense as a value GPP play.Chesson Hadley (DK $6,800) – This really seems like a course where Hadley could dominate, as he’s No. 1 on my model – even though he’s a value golfer making his first appearance in the Dominican Republic. If his ownership stays under 7-8%, he’s worth a look as a core GPP play.Brian Stuard (DK $6,600) – Stuard is too good of a golfer to be priced this low. He missed the cut in 2019 but finished T33 at this event in 2020 and sits at No. 34 overall on my model, ahead of guys like RCB, Dahmen and Lashley.More value golfers to consider: Lucas Herbert (GPP), Fabrizio Zanotti, Bronson Burgoon, D.J. Trahan, Tyler Duncan, Josh Teator, Troy Merritt, Ben Martin, Paul Barjon, George McNeillLongshot Punts (DK $6,500 and under):David Hearn (DK $6,400) – Hearn has made three straight cuts at this event, and while he’s struggled lately, he’s worth mixing in some GPPs at this price if that’s where you end up with your last golfer.Chris Baker (DK $6,300) – Baker, who I’ll have decent shares of in GPPs compared to field, is a solid value this week based on his SG:APP numbers and Par 4 efficiency. He’s missed the cut here twice but he was T30 at the Mayakoba and he could be ready for breakthrough.Miguel Angel Jimenez (DK $6,200) – I really don’t care how old Jimenez is, because he continues to score well and he’s in the Top 50 of my model. Ownership should stay miniscule, so I’m fairly interested in him despite the fact he plays the vast majority of his events on the Champions tour.Additional punts: Jonathan Byrd, Shawn Stefani, Sebastian Cappelen, Johnson Wagner, Ricky Barnes 3 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Daily Fantasy SportsPGA PGA DFS Picks: The Honda Classic jason mezrahi 3 years ago written by jason mezrahi Our comprehensive PGA DFS picks returns for the Honda Classic at PGA National to help find you some great picks and winning teams this week.Course Notes:Weaker field of 150 golfers (only three of OWGR top 20 playing)Cut: Top 65 and ties after 36 holes2020 winner: Sungjae Im (-6) over Mackenzie Hughes (-5)The course: PGA National (Champion Course in Palm Beach Gardens, FL; Tom Fazio design)Par 71 (7,125 yards)Water everywhere (again) – in play on 15 holes; just two Par 5 holesScoring is tough, so course management and making pars importantLarger, more receptive Bermudagrass greensWind will blow hard on Thursday, keep any eye on tee timesCorrelative courses include TPC Sawgrass & Scottsdale, Quail HollowAlready a bunch of WDs including: Doc Redman (positive COVID test) and Scott Piercy (contact tracing), Gary Woodland (contact tracing), Sam Burns (undisclosed)Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, Bogey Avoidance, SG: Putting (Bermuda), SG: Off the Tee, SG: Around the Green, Par 4 scoring,The Picks:Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):Sungjae Im (DK $11,000) – Since his T5 at the Sentry Tournament of Champions – a no-cut event – Im hasn’t placed better than T12 at the AMEX, though he’s made every cut and hasn’t necessarily hurt you. This week, he’s the top-priced golfer in a thin field and the defending champion — but he’s probably not the best option in cash games if you’re trying to build a balanced lineup. I won’t be overweight on the field, but I’ll have a few shares in GPPs based strictly on his ability to avoid bogeys and get off the tee well. The SG:APP and SG:ARG numbers don’t give me enough confidence to go all-in, even with the shortage of “elite talent in the top tier.Daniel Berger (DK $10,800) – On Monday, Berger was the betting favorite and recently cited a rib injury following his T9 performance at the Players. He’s supposed to do a pre-tourney press conference, so we should have a better idea of how the ribs are feeling the day before lock. For now, I’m downgrading him slightly; he actually said he was surprised he played four full rounds dealing with the issue. Joel, Michael and Sia discussed Berger on the breakdown, but the fact that he played through the injury last week – and he’s second overall on my model – makes me want to use him in GPPs if he’s good to go. Stay tuned.UPDATE: Berger has withdrawn from the Honda Classic and has been replaced by Rhein Gibson. Get him out of all your lineups and pivot to Niemann, Westwood or value. Incidentally, because the winds are going to blow so hard this week, it’s not a bad idea to leave some money on the table in a few lineups in large-field GPPs — since we could see the winning lineup not include any of the players over $9,500, and sneak a couple of serious value plays in the top 5.Joaquin Niemann DK $10,400) – Our process of elimination is being aided by some early WDs and glaring red flags with a few of the other “elite” golfers this week, so forgive me for arriving at Joaquin Niemann chalk and feeling a bit uninspired. He’s viable in all formats, he’s sixth overall on my model and he’s 11/11 on cuts since the start of October. So what’s the downside? We’ll have to keep an eye on ownership for our GPP exposure, but I’m starting to feel like he’s one of the safer plays on the board.Russell Henley (DK $9,800) – Henley might be the best cash game play of the top group when price, course history and model are all considered, and I’ll have plenty of exposure in GPPs as well, as he’s No. 1 overall on my model and his ownership might be more depressed than it would have been had he made the cut last week and had a finish higher than T11 in his last eight starts. He’s continually improve his finish in this event since 2016, and he won here in 2014. Henley will be the starting point for about 30-40 percent of my GPPs, and he’s shaping up to be an anchor on my single-entry squad.Also consider: Lee Westwood, Adam Scott (Cash)Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):Shane Lowry (DK $9,200) – If the wind starts blowing and folks are having a tough time making pars, I’m all the more interested in a guy like Lowry, who’s proven to be a trustworthy golfer even when conditions are dire. He’s in good form and his history at the Honda Classic (through three tries) yielded a T21 in his last go-round. The weaker field, the difficulty of the venue and his increased confidence both here and on correlative and other Florida courses is a combination for prospective success this week.Cameron Tringale (DK $9,100) – Tringale actually described the Champion course at PGA national himself as a “second-shot golf course” that plays tough because of the wind, the run-offs and the myriad hazards that abound. Tringale has always been decent around the greens and has his most difficulty on correlative courses getting off the tee (he ranks 131st in the field in SG: OTT when adjusted for this course and the others mentioned in the bullets). While it feels weird playing over $9K for Tringale, but he’s No. 18 in my model and if he can keep it in the fairways here, he’ll be in good shape to contend on Sunday.Chris Kirk (DK $9,000) – In his last two events, Kirk has waited until day 4 to shoot his worst round of the tournament, which may not bode well for his confidence heading into a difficult PGA National course. If he’s anywhere near 15% or more in GPPs, I’ll steer clear, but you have to consider a guy whose ball striking has been this good lately. He’s No. 15 in my model overall and the only thing that’s really held him back form better finishes in his last few tourneys has been his putting.Brendan Steele (DK $8,700) – This tour grinder has made seven consecutive cuts heading into the Honda this week. Aside from a MC in 2019, Steele’s course history is more than solid (8-for-9 with top 15s in four of last five; 36-hole leader before a T4 last year), and he’s popping (fourth overall) on my model this week. I’m already leaning his way in single-entry and could have big shares across the board in all formats. As a bonus, we’ve seen Steele navigate high winds well before, and Sia likes him this week too, so there are two more reasons to keep him in our builds.Matt Wallace (DK $8,500) – Wallace is another player who plays well in these types of conditions, and he has one of those names that Sia really likes for its simplicity and understated, boring inflection. Because it doesn’t stand out like Wallace himself, we could see ownership lower than what it should be this week. For that reason, and the important detail that he’s a longshot who just barely missed the cut here last year, we don’t need high ownership to stay ahead of the field. He’s definitely getting mixed into my GPPs (20-max), but I won’t have more than 10 percent shares.Also consider: Talor Gooch, Rickie Fowler (GPP), Keegan Bradley (GPP), Martin Kaymer, Ian Poulter, Wyndham Clark (GPP), Byeong Hun An, Russell Knox, Erik van RooyenValue PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):K.H. Lee (DK $7,500) – Lee missed the cut at Bay Hill and finished a ho-hum T41 last week at the Players, but I’m intrigued by the correlation between success here and at TPC Scottsdale – where he finished T2 in February. The South Korean sensation is adept at avoiding bogeys and is 25th overall in my model this week – making him a solid value play. Because of the wind, I’m looking at tee times and favoring the early Thursday times a bit, so Lee takes a bit of a hit because of that, but I’m still interested.Luke List (DK $7,500) – He’s let me down a few times with missed cuts, but he can really get off the tee well and that usually bodes well for success at this event, where he finished solo second (between winner JT and Alex Noren) in 2018. Add to that course history another Top 10 and a couple missed cuts and underwhelming performances, and you’ve got a golfer to use in GPPs and stay a bit ahead of the field in ownership.James Hahn (DK $7,300) – Hahn hasn’t played the Honda Classic in a while, but he’s tied with Lee Westwood for eighth overall in my model, he’s sprinkled three Top 15s in his last 10 tournaments, and his solo 10th place finish at the TPC course Waste Management gives me some confidence in his ability to do well here at this correlated PGA course in South Florida. He’ll be low-owned and makes for a prime target in GPPs.Ryan Moore (DK $7,300) – Moore has played here just once, but he made the cut, and he’s finished in the Top 35 in his last two tournaments after three straight MCs to start out 2021. He’s No. 14 overall on my model this week and he’s been playing steady enough golf to spike a Top 10 or 15 finish here, which works for me in all formats.Chez Reavie (DK $7,000) – His proximity stats are second in the field (Vaughn Taylor is actually first and Russell Henley is third), and he’s been off a bit this year with a bunch of missed cuts mixed with a few decent performances. His putting and ARG numbers have bene bad, but if he can find a little magic on the short stuff, he could pay off handsomely in GPPs.Lucas Glover (DK $7,000) – I really like Glover this week in GPPs given his extensive course history, but I’ve been known to go a little overboard because of the upside he offers at such a cheap price point. He hasn’t had a top 10 finish since the Mayakoba, but there have bene some bright spots, including a 63 in round two of the Waste Management Open and some steady golf last week (in rounds 2-4) despite difficult conditions. His ability to avoid the big number could come in handy this week.Jim Furyk (DK $6,900) – Full disclosure: I’ll probably have Furyk on way too many teams this week given the venue, the fact that he’s fifth in my model (and #1 in the field in Bogey Avoidance), and the crucial factor that less-than-driver is plenty on a lot of these Par 4s. The veteran golfer (and shoo-in 2021 HOFer) is one of the best ball strikers the game has ever known, and he’s still got it going at over 50 years of age.Chesson Hadley (DK $6,600) – Hadley (No. 20 overall on my model) typically struggles around the greens, but he likes this putting surface and if he can avoid some of the testy run-offs and navigate the ball well T2G, I think he could be in play in GPPs. He’s in the price range where you don’t need to go overboard or even use him in single-entry, but I’m fine with 10-15% ownership in GPPs if you want some extra leverage for a high-upside guy with two Top 25s at this event.More value golfers to consider: Patton Kizzire (GPP), Zach Johnson, Henrik Norlander (GPP), Jhonattan Vegas (GPP), Harry Higgs (GPP), Adam Long, Mark Hubbard, Denny McCarthy, John Huh (GPP), Wes Bryan, Charl Schwartzel, Jason DufnerLongshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):Pat Perez (DK $6,500) – It’s easy to root for Perez, who’s No. 10 on my overall model this week but missed the cut last week after 77-69 in the opening two rounds. I’m focused on the 69 – especially since the last two times he missed the cut he bounced back with a finish in the top 36. That’s not a bad trend for a golfer in this price range, and a guy who doesn’t make a lot of big numbers and has the game to put together some low rounds.Kramer Hickok (DK $6,400) – He performed well in high winds at the Bermuda, and he made the cut last week at the Players after getting in as an alternate with Brooks Koepka’s withdrawal. He’s No. 59 overall on my model, but he’s got some Top 25 upside this week if you need a cheap golfer to mix into 1-2 of your 20max GPPs.UPDATE: Kramer Hickok has withdrawn his name from the field, and will be replaced by Brandon Hagy, who I have no interest in. Hickok did not cite a reason for his WD.Kelly Kraft (DK $6,000) – Normally I don’t include players this far down in my model (he’s No. 124 this week), but Kraft finished T8 here in 2018 and he’s known for being a better player in high winds, which could come into play right off the bat this week. He’s a 1/20 max play, but he’s minimum salary and if your five golfers in a GPP build gets you there and you need a guy that’s $6K, I’d pick Kraft.Additional punts: Stewart Cink, Vaughn Taylor (GPP), Scott Stallings, Sam Ryder, Graeme McDowell, Tyler Duncan (GPP), Chase Seifert (GPP) 3 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Daily Fantasy SportsPGA PGA DFS Picks: The Players Championship jason mezrahi 3 years ago written by jason mezrahi We’re loading up another PGA DFS picks column to tackle TPC Sawgrass at the Players Championship and finding you some winning golfers this week.PGA DFS Course Notes:Enormous, elite field of 154 golfersCut: Top 65 and ties after 36 holesNo 2020 winner due to COVID: 2019 winner was Rory McIlroy (-16)The course: TPC Sawgrass (Ponte Vedra, FL – Pete Dye designPar 72 (7,189 yards)Water everywhere on this difficult, risk-reward golf coursePlays longer in March than it did in MayBermuda turf overseeded with ryegrass; dormant, speedy Bermuda greens overseeded with velvet bent and poa trivialisLook for big scoring spreads like at Bay HillWind probably won’t blow like it did at Bay Hill6/6 will be tougher this week in the huge fieldFocus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, SG: Off the Tee, SG: Around the Green, Par 4 scoring, SG: Putting (Bermuda), Opportunities Gained, Bogey AvoidanceThe Picks:Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):Dustin Johnson (DK $11,200) – Joel and Sia did a great job explaining how there’s a lot of different ways to approach your build this week in the breakdown, and there’s not really one right answer. But if I’m entering 10 GPP lineups, I’ll probably start with DJ and one of the $9K guys, be it JT, Webb, Morikawa or Cantlay. It’s a great spot to get some leverage by using the guy I think is most talented golfer in the field at twice (or more) the projected ownership. He’s talked about how he likes this venue in March more than May, and he’s No. 1 in my model by a long shot. He’ll be the anchor of my single-entry lineups and there’s really no good reason to fade him.Rory McIlroy (DK $10,600) – Rory continues to struggle with closing out tournaments, and the fact that he’s technically the defending champ here doesn’t inspire additional confidence on a golf course that’s given him problems in the past. The risk-reward nature of TPC Sawgrass and its reputation as the “fifth major” lends more similarity to the Masters and Augusta National more than any of the other majors, and McIlroy has yet to “master” what it takes to win among the azaleas. He could easily play solid golf and score another top ten, but I won’t be overweight on Rory this week.Justin Thomas (DK $9,900) – This is probably the week where I take my biggest stand on JT, because there’s a little bit of a discount and because I can’t imagine the field going too heavy on ownership on a player who’s missed two of his last four cuts. But there’s plenty to like about some of the things we’ve seen Thomas do in his recent rounds, and my model reflects it as he’s No. 3 on my list. The opportunities have been there and it’s exactly the kind of venue where JT could post a couple really low scores and find himself at the top of the leaderboard after two or three rounds.Webb Simpson (DK $9,500) – Webb is probably the best way to start building in cash games and he’s a candidate for single-entry anchor because of how well he’s played TPC Sawgrass over the past three attempts. He’s fifth on my overall model and he ranks second in the field (over his past 36 rounds) in SG:APP on correlative courses (including Bay Hill, Augusta National, TPC Boston, Shesan International and Quail Hollow). There’s no clear weakness to his game – he ranks 60th or better in every focus stat metric that matters this week – and the price is excellent.Also consider: Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele, Bryson DeChambeau (GPP)Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):Colin Morikawa (DK $9,400) – We don’t necessarily have to look to Morikawa this week, because the official records don’t indicate any course history here, but a little digging shows us that he started off last year’s event quite well (-4) in a bizarre first-round environment that saw no fans allowed on the grounds before the tournament was canceled amid the creeping horror of the pandemic. He’s an incredible ball striker and he’s made strides in his short game, but I’m leaning toward more shares of the next two guys on this list for the comparative discount.Patrick Cantlay (DK $9,200) – Cantlay is an incredible golfer from tee-to-green and he’s in the top 15 of my model. He’s yet to really break through at the Players but he has a couple of Top 25 finishes and his last six tournaments haven’t yielded a finish worse than T17, performances that included a win at the ZOZO, a solo second at the AMEX, and a T3 at Pebble Beach. The biggest knock is the fact that he withdrew from the WGC-Workday with an illness/dehydration, but that could have just been a stomach bug that really left him in the dumps – pun intended.Tony Finau ($9,100) – Like DJ, there’s no discernible reason to exclude Finau from your lineups this week, especially at such an affordable price. My biggest concern is his SG:ARG on correlative courses, but with the overseeding of these Bermudagrass greens, we’re going to see the surfaces a little more speedy – just how he likes them. The scoring opportunities for Finau (No. 10 overall on my model and No. 9 in the field for Opps Gained) should be there this week and I’m definitely going to be overweight on the field.Hideki Matsuyama (DK $8,700) – If you clicked the link about last year’s first round scores, Hideki fired a nine-under par 63 and tied the course record in the doomed 2020 event, and the ball-striking sensation seems to like how the greens roll here in March, as he finished T8 here in 2019 when they made the switch. Even if he struggles with his putter a bit, the T2G game should carry him through and get his name in the mix on Sunday.Paul Casey (DK $8,400) – Casey is a feast-or-famine GPP play who’s had a mixed bag of results at the Players, but he’s a good fit in this price range and he’s been striking the ball extremely well en route to some international success at Dubai, where he won, and locally at Bay Hill last week, when he finished T10. His T2G numbers on Pete Dye courses are solid, and he’s got the chops and nerves of steel to win at TPC Sawgrass.Adam Scott (DK $8,100) – Scott makes more sense for cash than GPPs, as he sports a more-than-decent course history here and has been making cuts lately – but has just one top 10 finish (T10 at the Farmers) since the U.S. Open in September 2020. He’s usable in tournaments as a last piece, but he’s not very exciting and not part of my GPP core.Tommy Fleetwood (DK $7,900) – Sia’s betting the farm on Fleetwood notching the low score of day one at an enticing 66-1, and that’s a really amazing price for a golfer as talented as Fairway Jesus – who’s been striking the ball quite well as of late. He’s got plenty of upside and seems to play his best in big events – and the Players qualifies. A top 10 finish wouldn’t surprise me.Cameron Smith (DK $7,900) – This is a tough call for GPPs, because game log watchers will see his recent finishes and be inspired, while course history hounds might get scared off by the missed cuts in 2017 and 2018. But the switch to March yielded a better result (he made the cut) in 2019, so I’m willing to throw out the previous struggles and focus more on the form and his attractive No. 34 spot in my mixed model.Will Zalatoris (DK $7,600) – Another talented golfer who saves his best golf for tough tracks and strong fields, Zalatoris is getting his first crack at TPC Sawgrass but seems to have a game that translates to any venue. He’s solid off the tee, he doesn’t make big numbers, and he’s a fine large-field GPP or single-entry tourney play at this price.Also consider: Viktor Hovland (GPP), Scottie Scheffler (GPP), Daniel Berger, Jordan Spieth, Tyrrell Hatton (GPP), Matthew Fitzpatrick, Jason Day, Louis Oosthuizen (GPP), Jason Kokrak, Joaquin NiemannValue PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):Abraham Ancer (DK $7,500) – We can thank the soft pricing for Ancer making the value range at just $7,500 this week, and while he doesn’t spike a top 10 rank in any one key metric heading into the Players, he’s a top-notch ball striker who finished T12 (right alongside Rahm and Joel Dahmen) at this event in 2019. I’ll be ahead of the field in GPPs at hopefully around 20-25% in my 20-max, and he’s on the short list for consideration in SE.Russell Henley (DK $7,400) – Henley is my “off-the-wall, model-loves-him” GPP play this week, because he’s had a pretty rough go of it in his last four tries here. A little more course history research shows a T24 and T17 in 2015 and 2014, so there’s some room for optimism. It makes sense that when the course played a little faster tee-to-green, he had more success, especially when you consider his less-than-stellar SG:OTT numbers. But Henley usually avoids the big numbers, hit great approaches and has a decent-enough short game to compete with the best, so I’m mixing him into my GPP builds. Lanto Griffin (DK $7,300) – Griffin appears to be taking the next step forward in his career as he gains more confidence, and since his MC at the AMEX he’s posted four straight finishes of T26 or better, including a T21 at the API last week. It’s not a course where too many golfers play “lights-out” in their inaugural run, but he’s going to make a few of my GPP lineups.Cameron Tringale (DK $7,200) – Tringale hasn’t played here since 2017, but he’s made the cut in three of his last four tries and has a T35 and T16 in his last two runs at Sawgrass. He and Chris Kirk (No. 9 overall) are the only $7K golfers in the top 10 of my model this week, and Tringale’s ranking at No. 7 is largely a result of a solid short game, a high rank in bogey avoidance and SG:APP on correlative courses. He’s worth a look.Christian Bezuidenhout (DK $7,100) – He wasn’t on my initial list, but the more I dig into his recent form (T7 at the API) and the revelation that he was -7 in last year’s first round. The dude can putt like a demon and he’s solid around the green, so if he can keep it in the fairways (and there’s a lot of less-than-driver here so that should help his chances), there’s no reason he can’t find a Top 10. He’s probably going to be on my single-entry teams and I’ll be close to 40 percent in large-field GPPs.Chris Kirk (DK $7,000) – The other of my $7K model darlings, Kirk makes for fine value in any format and his biggest weakness (putting) becomes a veritable strength on fast surfaces, which TPC Sawgrass should provide this week. He might be popular, as he’s projected around 11-12% right now, but I’ll have shares close to or exceeding that in GPPs.Emiliano Grillo (DK $6,700) – Grillo is the best ball striker you’ll ever see under $7K and his reputation of having a poor short game is probably the reason he’s not projected over 10% ownership this week. I like his chances of making the cut (3-for-his-last-4 at the Players with a T11 in 2017) and he’s played well in three of his last four events (T21-T11-MC-T22), and the missed cut at the Genesis was the result of a 72-73 opening two rounds, which isn’t that horrendous.More value golfers to consider: Sergio Garcia, Marc Leishman (GPP), Corey Conners, Sam Burns, Ryan Palmer, Kevin Kisner (GPP), Cameron Davis (GPP), Keegan Bradley, Alex Noren, Harold Varner III, Mackenzie HughesLongshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):Richy Werenski (DK $6,400) – The main reason I’m considering Werenski is his immediate form, as he finished T4 last week at Bay Hill, and while normally in a field this size and strength I’d be scared of the golfers under $6,500, we’ve got a few high-upside guys this week. He’s not great off the tee, but as we discussed, that could be mitigated (like last week) with more “less-than-driver” than usual.Doug Ghim (DK $6,200) – Ghim could blow up and make a couple of double-bogeys in his first four holes, but he’s also capable of firing a 65 on day one and putting himself in decent position for making the cut and posting a top 25 finish. It’s hard to recommend using him at more than 10 percent, but at that rate you’ll be around 2x the field ownership.Jason Dufner (DK $6,100) – Dufner has a major championship under his belt and while that was a long time ago, he’s made four cuts in a row at the Players including a T5 in 2018, and he’s better-than-average on tougher courses with his ball-striking and prefers fast greens. Don’t go overboard, but he’s fine to grab in 1/20 since nobody will be on him.Additional punts: Nick Taylor, Rory Sabbatini, Jhonattan Vegas, Harry Higgs (GPP) 3 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Daily Fantasy SportsPGA PGA DFS Picks: Sanderson Farms Championship jason mezrahi 4 years ago written by jason mezrahi In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Sanderson Farms Championship and helping you find some winning teams!Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!PGA DFS Course Notes:Relatively weak but much improved (from last week) field of 144 GolfersCut: Top 65 and tiesDefending Champ: Sebastian Munoz (-18)The course: Country Club of Jackson (Jackson, MS)Par 72: 7,287 yardsBermudaPoa (Bluegrass)Bomb and gouge is in play… but avoid the water!Blend of long approaches and shortThe last six winners have all been first time winners on the PGA TOUR, but it used to be an alternate site – which means there will be a few more grizzled vets in the mix this weekFocus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, Birdie or Better%, Par 4s (400-450) SG: OTT, SG: Putting (Bermuda), Proximity (175-200)The Picks:Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):Scottie Scheffler (DK $11,400) – Scheffler is probably the most talented golfer in the field, and he’s also the most expensive. The PGA Tour’s Rookie of the Year withdraw from the U.S. Open after testing positive for COVID-19 but closed out the season with three top fives (among six straight top 25 finishes) and is gearing up to become the seventh consecutive first-time winner of the tournament. He’s second in my overall model after Doc Redman.Will Zalatoris (DK $10,000) – Zalatoris, who finished in the top 20 in 13 consecutive starts, including two straight top-10s on the PGA TOUR, arrives at this week’s Sanderson Farms Championship as one of the hottest players in the world. He’s made the shift from leading the Korn Ferry Tour’s Regular Season Points list to PGA Tour events rather nicely, finishing eighth in last week’s event after an impressive T6 performance at the U.S. Open. Third in my model this week.Sam Burns (DK $9,800) – A few weeks ago, Burns had a solid reputation as a longer hitter and birdie-making GPP play, but he’s vastly improved his T2G play and he’s 3-for-3 at CC of Jackson with a T3 in 2018 – the makings of a chalky, cash game option. He’s also in my Top 10, so I’ll have shares of him in all formats.Doc Redman (DK $9,700) – We’ve seen Doc trending in the right direction with his overall game and ball-striking, attributes that will play well in Jackson. Redman also ranked 45th in birdie average on the PGA Tour in 2020 (fourth so far after just the Safeway Open in the 2021 season), and he’s my pick to break through and win this week.Zach Johnson (DK $9,600) – One of the aforementioned “grizzled vets,” ZJ arrives in Mississippi sporting good form — and he finished T14 at this event last season. He’s nearly a lock for a made cut and has the short game to scoot up the leaderboard during the weekend.Also consider: Sungjae Im (cash), Byeong-Hun An. Adam LongMid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):Corey Conners (DK $9,200) – He should be a staple of cash game lineups and he stands to make a much larger impact — and could be a nifty GPP play — if his ownership stays down and he can get the flat stick going this week. Last year he missed the cut at this event, but the Canadian sensation finished second here in 2018.Carlos Ortiz (DK $8,300) – With two straight top five finishes at the Sanderson Farms, he’ll be popular this week, but it’s obvious he likes this venue and this layout, so I’ll be on board in a few lineups.Cam Davis (DK $8,100) – Davis might be a better cash play than GPP because he’s been treading water in the T15-T40 range, but that’s not a bad guy to use last in that range because he fares well in the mixed models.Chesson Hadley (DK $7,800) – We’re no longer getting the standard Chesson Hadley discount on FanDuel, as his salary there ($9,500) is now the 22nd highest in the field, but he’s under $8K on DK, where he’s a boom-or-bust GPP play.Sepp Straka (DK $7,700) – Straka is turning into a much better ball striker, and while he’s known for his dynamic play, we’re seeing fewer bogeys and even more birdies these days from theTom Lewis (DK $7,700) – He’s not really great at anything, but he’s not particularly bad at anything either, so I’ll consider him for GPPs based on his form, aggressive style of play, and ability to make bunches of birdies.Also consider: Brian Harman (cash), Dylan Frittelli (GPP), Chez Reavie, Henrik Stenson, Si Woo Kim, Xinjun Zhang, Lucas Glover, Patrick Rodgers (GPP), Denny McCarthy (GPP)Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):Talor Gooch (DK $7,400) – Along with the next guy, he’s my favorite GPP play under $7,500, and he’s fourth in my models – not for one particular area but his overall game. Gooch isn’t the flashiest play, but he’s got what it takes to become the seventh consecutive debut winner at this event.Cameron Tringale (DK $7,300) – Another solid player who arrives with little fanfare, I’ll have shares of Tringale in GPPs of all sorts (including single-entry), and I believe in his ability to notch a win here given his weekend play at the 3M (63-66), when he finished third.Cameron Percy (DK $7,200) – In 2020, Percy finished 22nd on Tour in SG: APP, has a pair of top-20 finishes in his last four starts at this event (among four Top 45s) and owns top-25s in his last three starts where he played all four rounds. He’s also lurking in the Top 20 in my model among some accomplished golfers.Brandt Snedeker (DK $7,100) – We’re talking GPP only, guys. He’s missed three straight cuts and is a notorious terrible ball striker who gets by with otherworldly putting and veteran panache. Don’t get crazy.Patton Kizzire (DK $6,900) – He could benefit from the bomb-and-gouge approach this week and tend to flourish on Bermuda greens. He’s the definition of a large-field GPP play, because he carries plenty of MC risk (he’s missed five of his last nine cuts).Davis Riley (DK $6,800) – The two-time 2020 Korn Ferry Tour winner was popping in my models before I found out that he’s from Mississippi, and that he’s only made a few appearances on the PGA Tour – one of which was at last year’s Sanderson Farms Championship (T39). He’s strolling down narrative street this week with a dangerous putter in his hands.Adam Schenk (DK $6,700) – If you need a cash game play under $7K, I’d say that Schenk – despite the images of inconsistency conjured his name – might just be your man. He’s made eight consecutive cuts, which is actually the longest streak among the not-so-terrible field.Scott Stallings (DK $6,600) – It’s been a long time since he’s won on tour (2014), and his tee game leaves a lot to be desired, but he’s in the Top 40 on my models and he could squeeze his way into one or two large-field GPP lineups this week.More value golfers to consider: Nick Taylor (GPP), Hudson Swafford, Richy Werenski, Kristoffer Ventura, Will Gordon (GPP), Jhonattan Vegas (GPP), Mark HubbardLongshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):Chase Seifert (DK $6,400) – Seifert’s name came up last week in my Corales prep, and he finished T41 (right with the next guy) after a lackluster 72 on Sunday. With no major flaws in his game, if he can make the cut and close with as decent score, he could be a useful cash game cog at this bargain price.Matthew NeSmith (DK $6,300) – The price is a joke given this guy’s upside (three Top 15s in 2020), and he’s sandwiched at 21 between Si Woo Kim and ZJ in my model. He’s definitely worth a look in GPPs.Additional punts: Vaughn Taylor, Nick Watney (GPP), Martin Laird (GPP) 4 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Daily Fantasy SportsPGA PGA DFS Picks: Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship jason mezrahi 4 years ago written by jason mezrahi In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship and giving you the picks to do it!Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!PGA DFS Course Notes:Full but weak field of 154 GolfersCut: Top 65 and tiesDefending Champ: Graeme McDowell (-18)The course: Corales Puntacana Resort & Club (Punta Cana, DR)Par 72: 7,650 yardsSmaller Paspalum greens similar to Florida swingSeaside links-style course with inland front nine, easy-to-hit fairwaysWind can play a huge factorFour long par 5sFocus Stat Categories: Birdie or Better %, Strokes Gained: Approach, SG: OTT, SG: Putting (Bermuda), GIRI’m going to keep the blurbs brief and to the point. I’ve plugged in some data into the mixed models and there’s a few GPP plays that really stand out this week.The Picks:Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):Will Zalatoris (DK $10,900) – He had a great week at the U.S. Open and was T6 behind some amazing golfers. Playing on a sponsor’s exemption this week, Zalatoris is my pick to win.Corey Connors (DK $10,600) – The Canadian T2G sensation hits greens and ranks second and third in SG: OTT and SG: APP, respectively. He’s a great bet for a Top 15 even though he missed the cut here last year, but he’ll have to make some putts.Mackenzie Hughes (DK $10,300) – Another Canadian at the opposite end of the SG stat spectrum, Hughes has a great short game and sometimes fails OTT and with his approaches. He finished second here last year but I’d use him as a GPP play only.Sam Burns (DK $10,100) – There will be scoring opportunities for this solid ball striker, and he’ll be going for the Par 5s in two. He finished 12th here last year and we could see improvement on that this season.Adam Long (DK $9,900) – He shows up near the top of my model (fifth overall) and his only flaw is his weak tee game. I’m intrigued but a little bit scared.Also consider: Denny McCarthy (GPP), Emiliano Grillo, Charles Howell IIIMid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):Sepp Straka (DK $9,300) – Fourth overall in my model but first in my heart, I’m not passing up a chance to snag a low-owned Straka in a spot where he could notch his first PGA Tour win.Pat Perez (DK $9,100) – Perez looks like a great fit for the course in the mixed model, and he’s usually pretty solid on the Florida swing, which correlates well here.Luke List (DK $8,700) – List’s last really solid performance was a T10 at the Memorial, and he’s playing the course for the first time. But he’s a beast off the tee and can hit greens.Patrick Rodgers (DK $8,000) – Nobody’s picking him to win, but I love the short game and SG: OTT stats, so I’m buying for his upside in GPPs.Brice Garnett (DK $7,900) – Garnett loves the venue, notching a wire-to-wire win here in 2018, and will be happy to get back to a course that fits his style. He’ll likely be popular.Jhonattan Vegas (DK $7,700) – Vegas showed up in my model and finished T26 at Puntacana Resort last year. We can use the Venezuelan in any format.Also consider: Thomas Detry, Kristoffer Ventura, Henrik Norlander, Adam Schenk, Kyle Styanley (GPP), Graeme McDowell, James HahnValue PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):Matthew NeSmith (DK $7,400) – The price seems a bit high considering his poor play recently, but the model loves him and e could get some big-time leverage in GPPs if he notches a top 15.Peter Uihlein (DK $7,100) – This isn’t my favorite price range, but I’m willing to take a shot with Uihlein, who’s stat profile looks very similar to last year’s winner, Graeme McDowell.Patton Kizzire (DK $7,000) – Kizzire missed the cut at the Safeway but the long-but-inaccurate hitter could find refuge in the course’s wide fairways. He’s my favorite play at $7K or less.More value golfers to consider: Beau Hossler, Vaughn Taylor, Hudson Swafford, Chase SeifertLongshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):Graham DeLaet (DK $6,300) – He’s showing up at the top of my models and why that’s hard to explain, it’s going to get him in a few of my scrubs and studs GPP builds.Jamie Lovemark (DK $6,300) – I’m interested only because of his ability to get hot with the putter and roll in a bunch of birdies. Another player who should benefit from the wider fairways and long Par 5s.Additional punts: Roberto Diaz, Shawn Stefani (GPP), Sebastian Cappelen, Dominic Bozzelli 4 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Daily Fantasy SportsPGA PGA DFS Picks: 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities jason mezrahi 4 years ago written by jason mezrahi In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the 3M Open and helping you find some winning teams!PGA DFS pricing is elevated for everybody this week with such aweak field, but we’ve got a bunch of viable picks for you to build a winner.Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats, article and more!Don’t forget to hop into the Win Daily Sports Expert Chat to talk one on one with our DFS and Betting Pros and check their articles out on the site!PGA DFS Course Notes:Weak but full tournament field of 156 golfersOnly second time playing this PGA event, so not much course history36-hole Cut: Top 65 and ties play the weekendThe course: TPC Twin Cities (Minneapolis)7,441 yards, Par 71 – Arnold Palmer/Tom Lehman design/consultBentgrass GreensCourse features 27 water hazards and 72 sand traps2019 3M Open shares correlation with 2020 Rocket MortgageBall-striker’s courseDefending champ: Matthew Wolff (-21)Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach; SG: Ball Striking, SG: Off the Tee; Eagles Gained, Par 4s Gained (450-500), Par 5s Gained (550-600), Birdie or Better %The Picks:Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):Tony Finau (DK $10,900) – It’s hard to say how he’ll react to Saturday’s collapse and subsequent Sunday struggles at Jack’s place, but this course sets up well for him with its wider-than-normal fairways and advantage to better drivers. He’ll certainly be hitting more greens this week at a course where he fared well in 2019.Tommy Fleetwood (DK $10,500) – Fleetwood has as much upside as the top three (more expensive) golfers and ownership shouldn’t be through the roof considering he’s breaking the seal after the layoff. I’ll be overweight in GPPs and he’s my favorite golfer in this price range.Paul Casey (DK 10,100) – Casey’s price has gone up over $2K since last week, when he missed the cut, so we might see the masses afraid to plug him in. He’s floating to the top of the models and makes sense in all formats – just keep an eye on ownership.Bubba Watson (DK $9,900) – The WinDaily writers’ group text has been replete with comment’s about Bubba’s viability at this venue, and I’m on board for a few GPPs, where his last couple tournament performances (and an elevated price) could scare off the faint of heart.Matthew Wolff (DK $9,700) – The man with one of the best – and coolest-looking – moves in golf is the defending champion, and I imagine could see massive chalk. But I can’t find a good reason to fade him at this point. Wolff played well last week in a much tougher test and seems like a darn good Top 10 bet with obvious winning upside. One of the best bets to repeat at a golf tournament in quite a while.Also consider: Dustin Johnson(GPP only)Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):Lucas Glover (DK $9,400) – Glover has been steadily rising as a more and more dependable DFS play in the past month or so, and he’s now tasked with justifying the highest price tag he’ll probably see this year. His 3M resume includes a course record-tying 62 in last year’s tournament and a T7 finish.Harris English (DK $9,000) – A cash game staple and solid value given his slew of Top 20s this year, English might get popular. He was cleared to play after a positive COVID test and finished T13 at the Memorial.Erik van Rooyen (DK $8,800) – Van Rooyen seems to be the definition of the feast-or-famine GPP play given his tendency to Top 20 or MC, but I’ll take a shot this week on a course where his skill set seems to match the venue.Doc Redman (DK $8,700) – Redman hits greens and ranks well in both SG: APP and SG: OTT. With three top 25s in his last four starts (MC last week), he’s a fine play in all formats.Henrik Norlander (DK $8,600) – The price has jumped over $2K this weekafter I featured him in my plays at $6,500 or under, but a course geared toward ball strikers, there’s no reason to get off him and his red-hot putter.Sepp Straka (DK $7,900) – Straka struggled on Saturday and Sunday at the Memorial but will enjoy the scoring opportunities that will inevitably come at TPC Twin Cities. He’s a “birdies-in-bunches” type of player who does well off the tee.Scott Stallings (DK $7,600) – Stallings is modestly priced at $7,600 and for a guy who’s 12 for 16 on the season and should play all four rounds with Top 15 upside, that’s not terrible. He checks a whole bunch of boxes and I’ll have shares in all formats.Also consider: Sam Burns, Luke List,Patrick Rodgers, Max Homa, Jhonattan Vegas, Will Gordon, Dylan FrittelliValue PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):Troy Merritt (DK $7,400) – The T8 at the Rocket Mortgage sticks out as a selling point (along with solid overall play this season), and he finished T7 at the 3M last year. I’m more than comfortable rostering him in all formats given his Top 10 upside.Charles Howell III (DK $7,400) – There’s cause for concerngiven his current form, considering his last top 15 came in January well before the layoff. But CH3 is an obvious course horse who checks most of the boxes this week and is available at a significant discount.Ricky Werenski (DK $7,400) – Werenski is popping on the models and made the cut in last year’s event. He probably lacks winning upside but seems to be playing consistent golf these days.Kristoffer Ventura (DK $7,300) – I’m once again looking at the Rocket Mortgage finishers, and Ventura posted a T21 in what was a pretty steady week. The Norwegian Korn Ferry regular could surprise some folks this week in a relatively weak field.Cameron Tringale (DK $7,200) – Tringale is one of my GPP specials this week, and he’s decent risk-reward bet for a Top 25 given his most recent finishes.Emiliano Grillo (DK $7,100) – You know the story on Grillo – the putter just needs to be better than terrible for him to make the cut, and decent-to-good for him to make a run at the Top 10.Brice Garnett (DK $6,900) – Garnett is another golfer that either shows up to play or bombs out, with three MCs and three Top 20s in his last six tournaments.More value golfers forGPPs: Charley Hoffman, Wyndham Clark (WD risk, back), Tom Hoge, Aaron Wise,Talor Gooch, Scott Piercy, Adam Schenk, Jason Dufner, Harry HiggsLongshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):Cameron Percy (DK $6,500) – If the rib injury isn’t a problem, Percy could give us a memorable DFS week at such a low price.J.J. Spaun (DK $6,500) – Spaun’s ability to make birdies sets him apart from some of the other chumps in the $6-7K range. Far from a DFS lock, I’ll sprinkle him into GPPs.Seamus Power (DK $6,500) – Another birdie-maker who can crank it out there, Power finished T12 at the Rocket Mortgage and is among my favorite plays in this value range.Additionalpunts: Roger Sloan, JoshTeator, Derek Ernst, Arjun Atwal, Angus Flanagan 4 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
