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JD Martinez

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 8/21 (FanDuel Main Slate)

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s six-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 6:40PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

The biggest weather threat is in Baltimore for the Braves-Orioles, and while we can certainly target hitters for this game, I’m not interested in either pitching option. Pricing is really tight on FD, much unlike the free squares for Colorado on DK, and it feels like all the best hitters on the slate are $3,500 and up — but we have some ways to attack this in GPPs and give ourselves a great shot at spiking a top finish.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Eduardo Rodriguez ($9,800)

It may seem crazy to say given his dynamic range of outcomes, but Rodriguez facing the strikeout-prone Rangers is the clear ace of the slate, especially with how much weight FD gives Ks and just how iffy the next two options (Joe Musgrove and Aaron Nola) have been over their past few starts. I love a good risk-reward pick as much as the next guy, but we just haven’t seen enough from the starting pitchers in the PHI-SD game to warrant using them at those prices. Rodriguez, though, gets a great spot against a Rangers team that is dead last in wOBA (.284) vs. LHP. He has 10K upside in this matchup and should get the requisite run support to notch a W. The only problem in rostering him comes when it’s time to stack up some hitters, but we do have some great value options on the Cardinals (more on that later).

Best GPP Value: J.A. Happ ($8,100)

The crafty veteran lefty is definitely someone that we could have looked to attack with right-handed mashers earlier in the season, but he’s completely turned around his season this August. Since he was traded to St. Louis, Happ’s allowed just three runs over 16.2 innings (1.62 ERA) with an 11:5 K:BB in his three outings. He’s sporting a dynamite .251 wOBA against opposing hitters in that stretch, and there’s nobody on this Pirates lineup that really scares me. He’s looking at around 25-30 as a floor with 45+ upside at a price point where nobody else has that kind of ceiling. He’s worth the investment and leaves $3,300+ per hitter — which helps us get the guys we need.

The other GPP Play: Wade Miley ($8,800)

Nobody likes playing soft-tossing Wade Miley, but he’s probably going to be relatively popular on this slate because he draws the Marlins, a lineup that’s chock full of some guys that aren’t necessarily household names. In fact, his popularity could dictate a few GPP stacks of the Marlins hitters just because it’ll be easy to get a portion of our builds way ahead of the projected ownership for guys like Lewis Brinson, Jesus Aguilar and Brian Anderson. But in my GPP builds where I’m not stacking Marlins, he’s a viable value option. I just wouldn’t exceed 20-25% with him if we’re doing 10+ lineups. He’s another guy with a 25-30 point floor and 45+ upside, but like I said — he’ll be pretty chalky, and if we’re looking for leverage we’re looking elsewhere.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Boston Red Sox

With all due respect to the game in Coors and the Braves against Matt Harvey in a game that’s likely to get pretty wet, my top stack is going to be the Red Sox against Jordan Lyles, who’s been dreadful. Lyles sports a .355 wOBA, .207 ISO, 40+% hard contact rate, 1.7 HR/9, a miniscule 16% K rate, a hilariously high 11% BB rate and a 49% fly ball rate. The Sox are going to mash, and getting exposure to their 1-7 hitters is a priority. The top four among them would be J.D. Martinez ($4,000), Rafael Devers ($4,200), Xander Bogaerts ($4,100) and Hunter Renfroe ($3,600) — who’s having a career year and has greatly improved his production vs. RHP. I also like leadoff man Kike Hernandez ($3,600), Kyle Schwarber ($3,700) and Alex Verdugo ($3,000) and, if he gets the start, a dirt-cheap Travis Shaw ($2,300). I’ll be mixing and matching Sox builds in just about all of my GPP entries, except for the random couple where I get some Coors exposure — which I don’t think is a huge priority on this slate based on FD’s inflated pricing. There’s plenty of value in that Colorado lineup on DK, but it’s cost prohibitive on FD where we need to save a few bucks.

GPP Value Stack: St. Louis Cardinals

The Cards are the clear value play that allows us to fit Rodriguez and/or the necessary Red Sox bats. Tommy Edman ($3,000), Tyler O’Neill ($3,200), Paul Goldschmidt ($3,800) and Nolan Arenado ($4,300) are the best four bats, but we might not be able to get Goldy and Arenado in there because of their hefty prices — which is fine in GPPs since we have more options in Paul DeJong ($2,700) and Harrison Bader ($2,900). Yadier Molina is really inexpensive at $2,500, and he’s locked into that No. 5 spot right in the middle of all the action.

Contrarian GPP Stack: Miami Marlins

We’ll start with the guys I mentioned earlier — Aguilar ($2,900), Brinson ($2,800) and Anderson ($2,900) and throw in Miguel Rojas ($2,800) for good measure. Wade Miley limits hard contact, but this is a bunch that could fluster him by just getting the ball in play, and relying on the “bloop and a blast” method. Again — this is a contrarian mini-stack not to be used in more than 20-25% of your GPP builds if you’re multi-entering. Jazz Chisholm, Jr. ($3,200) and Jesus Sanchez ($2,300) are also options.

Make sure to keep an eye on the starters as lineups are released. Good luck tonight, and please utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

3 years ago 0 comment

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 7/3 (FanDuel Main Slate)

Antonio D'Arcangelis 3 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s seven-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:15PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

Weather is not a huge issue tonight (as much as it is for the day games), so let’s dive right in!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Clayton Kershaw ($11,000)

Kershaw is the only top MLB DFS arm we should really consider tonight, since there’s a $2,500 drop off to the next available SP (LAA RHP Alex Cobb at $8,500 — someone we can consider as a GPP pivot). Adam Strangis explains in the 7/3 Starting Rotation article why anchoring cash game lineups to Kershaw makes a lot of sense, and we can probably use the same rationale for single-entry GPP. Kershaw’s K rate is high enough that the elevated pricing on FD isn’t a dealbreaker, and the Nationals do have some K potential in their lineup.

Best GPP Value: Jake Odorizzi ($7,200)

The Indians aren’t pushovers, but Odorizzi has been pretty effective this season with and xFIP under 4.00 and a K rate over a batter an inning. Cleveland is in the bottom half of the league in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ and they rank just 21st against the fastball — Odorizzi’s number one pitch in both effectiveness and usage. He’s a slight favorite, has averaged over 30 FD per outing over his last four starts, and his price allows us to roster basically any hitters we want in the high total games in Coors Field and/or Oakland.

Contrarian GPP Play: Alex Cobb ($8,500)

He’s a contrarian play because the price is still a little higher than we’d like to play on a slate where Odorizzi is much cheaper, but his upside is just as high. Cobb sports a 2.79 xFIP this season and the Orioles aren’t especially great at knocking around RHPs. There’s risk here, as we know this crew in Baltimore can manufacture a few runs with that potent top 4 — but if Cobb can get through that group a couple times without major incident, he’s got a great shot at eclipsing his 30 point FD projections and total of about 30 FD points. 40-45 FD points (helped by a QS and win) isn’t unrealistic,

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: St. Louis Cardinals vs. COL LHP Kyle Freeland

This lineup is filled with lefty mashers, and it’s a group that really came alive in extra innings last night — something I believe they’ll carry over into tonight’s matchup. You really can’t go wrong with Nolan Arenado ($4,400), Paul Goldschmidt ($4,300), Tyler O’Neill ($4,000 – DTD, finger) and Harrison Bader ($3,200) as your power four, with Tommy Edman ($3,700) Dylan Carlson ($3,400), Yadier Molina ($3,500) and Paul DeJong ($3,800) as your main alternates. The Rockies are all in play as well — especially Trevor Story ($4,400) , C.J. Cron ($3,900) and a cheap Yonathan Daza ($3,100 — though it will be hard to stack the entire game.

Value Stack: San Francisco Giants vs. ARI RHP Jacob Faria

The Giants were my value stack last night against the A’s, and while they did score 6 runs, they didn’t break the slate. Once again, they have enormous upside tonight with these hitters against “Journeyman Jake” Faria and his hittable ensemble of pitches: LaMonte Wade ($2,900), Mike Yastrzemski ($3,200), Buster Posey ($3,100) Alex Dickerson ($2,500), Brandon Crawford ($3,000). There are some other bats to be considered (Steven Duggar at $2,800 and a very cheap Donovan Solano at $2,300), but I’m most interested in the above four for MLB DFS.

Contrarian Stack: Oakland Athletics vs. BOS RHP Garrett Richards

There’s a great deal of leverage in stacking this entire game and fading Coors hitters, but let’s start with the Athletics bats we like: Tony Kemp ($2,800), Matt Olson ($3,700), Jed Lowrie ($3,300) and Matt Chapman ($3,600). For Boston, the top hitters are J.D. Martinez ($4,200), Kike Hernandez ($3,600), Xander Bogaerts ($3,700) and Hunter Renfroe ($3,500). Again — both sides are fine here, but the Athletics will be severely under-owned against a bad RHP, and that’s a spot I really like considering their above-average 104 wRC+ and .317 wOBA. The Sox do well against LHP (.331 wOBA, 105 wRC+), but they’re priced a little higher.

Good luck tonight, and make sure you utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

3 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports MLB

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 6/26 (FanDuel Main Slate)

Antonio D'Arcangelis 3 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s four-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:15PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

Weather is not a huge issue, but this is a risky slate for cash games and I’d highly recommend sticking to GPPs and lower-cost single-entry.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Nathan Eovaldi ($8,200)

The options are not great. We really can’t look to Julio Urias right now with him maxing out at 5 Ks in each of his last five starts (perhaps it’s the Bauer Effect rearing its ugly head) and Frankie Montas cannot be trusted facing a lefty-heavy Giants lineup. I’m a Yankee fan, which makes recommending Eovaldi in this spot especially tough, but the price is reasonable for a guy who has 10K potential against the Bombers and their 24.7% K rate (25.2% against RHP). Facing this lineup can be a dangerous spot for ANY pitcher, so I don’t think this slate portends well for large cash game investments, and there is a stiff wind blowing out toward the monster as well. But given what he did against the Yanks on June 4 in the Bronx (6.0 IP, 0 BB, 7 K, 1 ER and 46 FD points), he’s probably got as much upside as anyone. Adam Strangis makes mention of him as an option in the 6/26 Starting Rotation piece today, so if you need further information, that’s always a good source.

Best GPP Value: Dinelson Lamet ($7,500)

It would be great if he could somehow approach the 100-pitch mark, in which case he could easily pay off this bargain price. Lamet might have a lower floor than some of the other high-dollar options, but the upside is there at his still-discounted price and he’s coming off his first win and 7Ks. Again, I can’t stress enough how risky this entire slate is, but Lamet’s reward could slightly outweigh the downside. He should get the necessary run support for another W, and there’s an outside shot he crests the 5.0 inning mark tonight and possibly gets 6.0 in to qualify him for the QS bonus.

Contrarian GPP Play: Jordan Montgomery ($7,000)

We’re going to have to take some chances on this slate, and rolling out the enigmatic lefty hurler at Fenway might be the key to unlocking the slate. Or, and hear me out, you can stack against the guy in a few GPP lineups to hedge your DFS approach. He’s regained some of the effectiveness his changeup and curveball once had in his early days, and using them to keep these Boston hitters off balance. His 3.62 FIP is among the lowest on the slate, we know he’s got as much upside as anyone in these four games, and the Boston projected total is pretty high, so we know he won’t be popular.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: San Diego Padres vs. ARI RHP Merrill Kelly

The Dodgers, Red Sox and Yankees are all viable options in the spend-up category, but let’s look a little more closely at the Padres, who are red-hot at the plate. Fernando Tatis, Jr. ($4,700) is destroying baseballs right now (4-5 with 3 HRs and 65.8 FD points last night) and I don’t see any reason to not continue using him with Manny Machado ($4,300), Jake Cronenworth ($3,300) and either Eric Hosmer ($2,700), Tommy Pham ($3,100) or even Trent Grisham ($3,000). This lineup is filled with speed and power — the biggest contributors to offensive success in DFS, so make sure you get exposure to the Friars tonight.

Value Stack: San Francisco Giants vs. OAK RHP Frankie Montas

The Giants match up extremely well against Montas, who’s been struggling a bit lately. The top five hitters include a bevy of cheap bats who have enormous upside tonight: LaMonte Wade ($2,700), Mike Yastrzemski ($3,500), Buster Posey ($3,100) Alex Dickerson ($2,300), Brandon Crawford ($2,800). They could work in conjunction with the more expensive Dodgers or Padres, especially if you’re fading the Yankees-Red Sox.

Contrarian Stack: Boston Red Sox vs. LHP Jordan Montgomery

First of all, don’t freak out. I know I recommended Montgomery, and while there’s no way I’d stack the Sox and use Monty in the SP slot, we’ve got to build lineups assuming more than one narrative today, and it’s possible the Sox can give us what we need in a stack while Montgomery gets us 30-40 FD points behind a barrage of Ks. The hitting conditions seem favorable, and while Monty is generally a ground ball pitcher over the course of his career, the fly balls he gives up tend to go pretty far. If Michael Chavis leads off he’s a great bargain option at $2,300, and while lefty vs. lefty Alex Verdugo ($2,900) doesn’t get me excited, the projected 3-7 hitters are all in play: J.D. Martinez ($4,100), Xander Bogaerts ($3,700), Rafael Devers ($3,900), Kike Hernandez ($3,300) and Hunter Renfroe ($2,700).

Good luck tonight, and make sure you utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

3 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports MLB

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 5/22 (FanDuel Main Slate)

Antonio D'Arcangelis 3 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s six-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

No weather concerns of note, so everyone should technically be “in play” from a DFS perspective.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Walker Buehler ($10,500)

I’m not sure how many folks will get thrown off by the stiff winds blowing out to center in San Francisco tonight, but that stadium minimizes wind impact with its design — and Buehler is still the top ace of the slate. There’s really no close second, and I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention that Buehler’s ZIPS projections anticipate a lot more Ks over the next few starts. His talent level is head and shoulders better than choices B and C tonight and the run support he should get with his Dodgers facing the Giants’ Matt Wisler and some bullpen arms is enough to make him the safest option on the board.

Best GPP Value: Chris Bassitt ($8,800)

The A’s are a road favorite against an Angels team missing Mike Trout — the anchor of their lineup and one of the main reasons to fear that team. Over the past seven days we’ve seen the Angels team K rate increase about three percentage points, and while Bassitt isn’t known as a high-strikeout pitcher, his K/9 has increased to 9.62 this season, and his walk rate is the lowest its been in his seven-year MLB career. There isn’t an EASY value on tonight’s slate, but if I had to pick a guy who could surprise and break through with moderately low ownership on a day with limited options, Bassitt is the guy.

Contrarian GPP Value: Robbie Ray ($9,100)

Ray has been excellent this season, and while the minor league park the Blue Jays are hosting games in is quite the bandbox, Ray’s K is up a percentage point and a half to 28.9% this season. It’s not quite where it was during his DFS heyday in 2017 — when it was a whopping 32.8 and he posted a 1.15 WHIP and 3.72 FIP — but Ray is throwing a lot of good fastballs again, limiting hard contact this season and getting his WHIP down to an impressive 1.17 through seven starts. The Rays strike out at the fourth-highest rate among MLB teams and that’s exactly the type of thing we’re looking for on FanDuel, where efficiency matters a lot less than notching strikeouts. Adam Strangis also points out in his 5/22 Starting Rotation piece that they’re especially bad against lefties. Nathan Eovaldi ($7,200) also makes sense as an off-the-wall, high-risk contrarian play against Philadelphia. The Phillies have the second-highest team strikeout rate in baseball, but Eovaldi might end up being more popular than Ray because of the salary difference.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Boston Red Sox vs. PHI RHP Spencer Howard

The Red Sox continue to mash and represent the safest stack of the 5/22 MLB DFS slate. They also boast one of the higher projected team run totals and have a 2-5 stack that rivals any in the bigs at the moment. Alex Verdugo is out today (hamstring) but Xander Bogaerts ($3,800), J.D. Martinez ($4,300) and Rafael Devers ($3,800) should all be rostered confidently. It’s an expensive stack that will probably need some value to offset that type of spending. Value options for your fourth hitter on Boston include Kike Hernandez ($3,200) — who has 2B/OF positional flexibility — Christian Vazquez ($2,500), and sluggers Bobby Dalbec ($2,400) and Hunter Renfroe ($2,200)

Value Stack: San Diego Padres vs. SEA LHP Justus Sheffield

The Padres aren’t normally a value play as a team stack, but Eric Hosmer is just $2,700 and Fernando Tatis Jr. ($4,500) is the only real spend-up hitter we’ll encounter here. The rest of my preferred stack includes Manny Machado ($3,200) and Tommy Pham ($2,100). Pham’s price is way too low given his upside and the fact that that his offense came alive for 34.2 FanDuel points last night. Right handed Austin Nola ($2,900) is also an option, and I would prefer leadoff hitter Trent Grisham ($3,400) to Jake Cronenworth ($3,000) since the former is better vs. lefties and the latter sometimes gets a day off against southpaws anyway — but Grisham is nursing a heel injury that had him removed in the fifth inning against Seattle yesterday.

Contrarian Stack: Oakland Athletics vs. LAA LHP Patrick Sandoval

It’s difficult to say just how many innings Sandoval will pitch tonight, but the A’s are better against LHP this season and their productive core of Mark Canha $3,100), Ramon Laureano ($3,400) and Matt Chapman ($2,700) could get some early scoring off the mediocre southpaw. I’m fine adding Matt Olson ($3,400) to the mix or even take a shot on Seth Brown ($2,200), who homered a couple games ago and offers some great value.

Good luck, and make sure you utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

3 years ago 0 comment

MLB Daily Fantasy Sports

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 5/8 (FanDuel Main Slate)

Antonio D'Arcangelis 3 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s seven-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

Some nasty storms firing up later tonight in the area of the White Sox at Royals game but other than that no major weather concerns for the 7:05 slate.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top Ace: Clayton Kershaw ($11,000)

The pitching in the main slate is pretty ugly, though you should check out the deep dive Adam Strangis gave us in his 5/8 Starting Rotation piece for more info. Kershaw is the top spend of the main slate and I’ll probably be avoiding Lance Lynn and the chance for a weather-impacted start for the White Sox hurler in Kansas City. I do like one pitcher a lot more for GPP value, but it’s silly to think anyone has higher floor tonight than a future HOFer in Kershaw facing their Pasadena counterparts. The Angels — slightly below league average against lefties — have a low team strikeout rate (second-lowest in baseball at 21.6%), but they also have the lowest projected run total of the 14 teams that encompass this slate. Kershaw got knocked around by the Cubs on May 4 but threw just 39 pitches and should be plenty ready for a MLB DFS rebound on short rest.

Best GPP Value: Ian Anderson ($7,900)

Another solid pitcher looking to bounce back from a bad outing, Anderson didn’t fare well against the high contact Blue Jays in his last start, failing to get into one of his customary bat-missing grooves. But the Phillies have the second-highest team strikeout rate in the majors this year (27.9%) and that’s what I’m looking for on FanDuel, where “Ks are King” for SP in MLB DFS. Anderson whiffs over 10 batters per 9 IP, and he’s been plagued by an abnormally high HR/FB rate so far this season. Expect him to notch himelf 7-8 KS and stand a very good shot at a quality start/win with his Atlanta Braves standing at -170 to -180 favorites at home.

Contrarian GPP Value: Garrett Richards ($7,400)

Richards has shown the ability to strike out 10+ batters in an outing, which he accomplished against the Mets on April 27 in a monster 58-point FanDuel performance. The Orioles aren’t the pushovers they were a couple years ago, but the team K rate is still 24.6% and their measly team wRC+ of 89 is uninspiring from a DFS perspective. If you’re looking for an off-the-radar play with some upside as a pivot from chalk and the obvious GPP value that Anderson offers, Richards could be a fine MLB DFS leverage play who’s capable of 40-50 FP tonight. Over his past 12 IP, he’s struck out 17 batters to just one BB.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Atlanta Braves vs. PHI RHP Vince Velasquez

The Braves have the highest total of the slate (5 runs) and while Vince Velasquez has been a dynamic pitcher in the past, his 2021 numbers aren’t great. His painfully high walk rate (6.38 BB/9) and high FIP/xFIP (6.13/4.62) could be a huge problem against an admittedly circular Braves lineup that features some of the best batters in baseball vs. RHP, including Ronald Acuna ($4,400), Freddie Freeman ($4,000), a switch-hitting Ozzie Albies ($3,300) and value-laden Austin Riley ($2,500). There’s also Marcell Ozuna ($3,500) and young C William Contreras ($2,800). The top MLB DFS guys from Atlanta are not chap, so I’ll probably make some different combos of four-man stacks with Anderson and a few with Garrett Richards.

Value Stack: Houston Astros vs. TOR LHP Steven Matz

I thought the Astros would be more expensive, honestly, but the pricing hasn’t caught up to just how hot Alex Bregman ($3,600) is getting. Bregman’s .420 wOBA this season vs. LHP is a number that’s actually come down since 2019 — when it was .430 from 2018-19. The team’s wRC+ is 124 over the past 14 days, a mark equaled only by the Yankees, who have seen their bats heat up behind a rejuvenated Giancarlo Stanton. Yordan Alvarez ($3,700) is a lefty who mashes lefties and both Yulieski Gurriel ($2,900) and Carlos Correa ($3,100) have massive HR upside in a lineup that produces lots of runs. Did I mention that Jose Altuve ($3,400) has four hits including a HR) in his last nine AB? Even Michael Brantley ($3,000) works just fine as a contrarian LHB play as the No. 2 hitter in a 1-4 stack here, and nobody’s price is too outrageous.

Contrarian Stack: Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles LHP Zac Lowther

We know that Bregman mashes lefties, but only Nolan Arenado (.460 wOBA, but with the boost of Mile-High home games) and J.D. Martinez and his .457 wOBA ($4,300) have done more against LHP since 2017. Mrtinex makes foe a great anchor in a four-man Red Sox stack that also includes Rafael Devers ($3,500) — who boats a .410 wOBA in 30 AB vs. LHP this season — Xander Bogaerts ($3,600) and the sneaky Marwin Gonzalez ($2,400), if he gets another spot near the top of the lineups tonight. Stay tuned to see who gets the final nod in the Red Sox starting nine hitters, but a core of Martinez, Devers and Bogaerts is a great start against the inexperienced Lowther, who is bound to struggle against the Sox tonight in Baltimore.

Good luck, and make sure you utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

3 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports MLB

9/24 DFS Hitting Picks and Stacks: Stacking Sox in the Texas Heat

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

We’ve got a 13-game main slate for 9/24 DFS and while a playoff picture is finally emerging and the season is winding down, there are still some high-upside hitters and stacks to get you prepped to win some green!

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9/24 DFS Hitting Stacks of the Day

Red Sox at Edinson Vólquez/Ariel Jurado

The Red Sox shouldn’t have problems getting to either Vólquez, who’s having a last hurrah in the big leagues before retiring, or Jurado, who has a 5.73 ERA this season and has trouble getting Ks. You may want to skip Betts, who’s been getting rest since coming back from a foot injury, but grab shares of J.D. Martinez, Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts and some of the more inexpensive bats (Mitch Moreland, Brock Holt, Jackie Bradley) that should help you make salary. I think the 2-5 plus Christian Vazquez (the projected 7 hitter) might be my favorite stack among the Red Sox bats.

Houston Astros at Justin Dunn/Tommy Milone

The Astros are always worth looking to considering their 121 team wRC+ and .349 wOBA, but they face a couple mashable pitchers and you don’t have to worry about splits since they rake just about everybody. Get some shares of the red-hot George Springer (three HRs on Sunday) as well as Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Yuri Gurriel and Yordan Alvarez. they have the highest implied total among the teams with set lines so far.

TorontoBlue Jays at Dylan Bundy

These teams have been bashing each other’s brains in, and while I prefer the Blue Jays side of this offensive tilt, the entire game stack is in play. It’s been a GPP winner recently, so I have no qualms about rolling out the usual suspects again: Cavan Biggio, Randal Grichuk, Rowdy Tellez, and value bats like Brandon Drury and Teoscar Hernandez – especially if Lourdes Gurriel, Jr. (illness) sits for a second consecutive day.

9/24 DFS Hitting Stacks to Consider

Chicago Cubs at Mitch Keller – The Cubs are nearly out of the playoff picture thanks to the Cardinals, but for 9/24 DFS you shouldn’t consider them officially dead yet – and they’re a bunch who can still pile on the runs. The Pirates home park isn’t the best venue for stacks, so ownership should be relatively low.

Atlanta Braves at Danny Duffy – Plenty of bats to like for this potent Braves lineup facing the lefty in Kansas City, you’ll just have to leave out a couple since they’re all so good. I may be fading the Yankees in Tampa, but I’m not worried about the Braves against a hittable pitcher in the heartland.

Cleveland Indians vs. Hector Santiago – The Indians aren’t as consistent as the Braves offensively, but they have a bunch of lefty mashers with a special affinity for Santiago. The implied run total is over 5.5, which means you should have shares of the 1-5 bats along with some exposure to Franmil Reyes and Jordan Luplow. I might take a wait-and-see approach with Jose Ramirez, who’s set to be activated from the IL.

Oakland Athletics at Dillon Peters – The A’s aren’t as good against LHPs (.305 team wOBA), but it’s a viable contrarian stack to consider for 9/24 DFS. The implied total is also over 5.5 runs and seems a bit high — so tread lightly with this bunch.

9/24 DFS Hitting Catcher

Christian Vazquez, BOS at TEX

DK ($4,600) FD($3,200)

Vazquez got a day off yesterday against the Rays, but he should beback in the lineup Tuesday in Texas. He’s got 3 homers in his last seven gamesand his overall numbers in 2019 have been impressive: .273/.316/.472 with 22 HRs.Digging a little deeper, we find a .232 road ISO, with 14 of his dingers comingaway from Fenway Park.

9/24 DFS Hitting First Baseman

Carlos Santana, CLE at DET

DK (4,900) FD ($4,000)

Santana is having a career year, and I’m plugging him into most ofmy GPP builds against Hector Santiago. Hisseason slash sits at .288/.403/.529 with a 139 wRC+ and he’s destroying LHPsthis season (1.015 OPS, 162 wRC+ and .421 wOBA). There are many ways to go at1B on this slate, but Santana is my bet for a monster game.

9/24 DFS Hitting Second Baseman

Cavan Biggio, TOR at BAL

DK ($4,900) FD ($3,700)

Did you expect me to play some other than Biggio? He hit anotherbomb last night and has ben raking every time I use him in GPPs – from lastTuesday’s cycle and Thursday’s home run to helping me spike some decent cashesin last night’s Rally contests on FanDuel. He’s way too cheap on that site andhis price tag on DK should keep him from being chalk – especially with so manyhigh-priced arms.

9/24 DFS Hitting Third Baseman

Manny Machado, SD vs. LAD (3B/SS on DK)

(DK $3,700) FD($3,000)

It’s been a disappointing season for Machado, but he’d like to endit with some standout performances against his old team, the Dodgers. I lovethe matchup against LHP Rich Hill since Machado – with some really pronouncedsplits this season – hits .314/.401/.683 against southpaws. The price is rightfor Machado, and using him as a one-off or with OF Hunter Renfroe ($4,000 onDK, $3,100 on FD) – who’s another viable Padres power hitter with a 132 wRC+against LHPs – makes a lot of sense if you’re trying to find some value and buildingmultiple lineups.

9/24 DFS Hitting Shortstop

Corey Seager, LAD at SD

DK ($4,700) FD($3,800)

Seger is finally hitting his groove as we near the postseason, andnow is a great time to plug him in at SS in the 9/24 DFS main slate. He’s got a123 wRC+ against RHPs and has a .381 WOBA and .314 ISO sine the start of September.There’s no time like the present, and presently, Corey Seager is raking.

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9/24 DFS Hitting Outfielders

Cody Bellinger, LOS at SD (1B/OF on DK)

DK ($4,800) FD($3,200)

Cody might just ring that bell again on Tuesday night against “BadRonald” Bolanos, who’s given up three homers in 14 innings. Bellinger’s 166wRC+ and ridiculous .314/.414/.641 slash line vs. RHPs means he’ll be in all thelineups I can afford him in, regardless of the venue and the fact he’s on the road(149 wRC+ in away games this season).

Ronald Acuna, Jr., ATL at KC

DK ($5,300) FD ($4,400)

He makes for a fine one-off if you’re not using the Braves stack, and he’s putting up obscene numbers against both LHPs and RHPs. Another interesting stat about Acuna is that he’s slashing a robust .281/.370/.510 with a 125 wRC+ at home and .279/.361/.527 with a 128 wRC+on the road. There’s not a day that I don’t consider him, even against the league’s top pitchers and regardless of the lofty price tag.

Austin Hays, BAL at TOR
DK ($3,800) FD ($2,700)

Hays had a monster night in Toronto on Monday and he’s once again in a good spot facing a lefty. The 24-year-old slugger is slashing .302/.362/.535 in the 15 games he’s played in the majors, and he’s still very inexpensive on both sites. If he’s in the Orioles lineup on Tuesday, I’ll be grabbing shares.

9/24 DFS Additional Stack Options:

C: Wilson Contreras ($4,400 DK, $3,200 FD), Sean Murphy ($4,000DK, $3,100 FD)

1B: Anthony Rizzo ($4,900 DK, $4,100 FD), Trey Mancini ($4,700 DK,$3,900 FD)

2B: Jose Altuve ($4,700 DK, $4,200 FD), DJ LeMahieu ($5,000 DK)($4,200 FD – 3B)

3B: Gio Urshela ($4,100 DK, $3,000 FD) Vladimir Guerrero Jr, ($3,800DK, $3,200 FD)

SS: Francisco Lindor ($5,400 DK, $4,300 FD), Nico Hoerner ($3,700DK, $3,000 FD)

OF: Anthony Santander ($4,000 DK, $3,400 FD), Brett Gardner ($4,500DK, $3,500 FD), Randal Grichuk ($4,100 DK, $3,000 FD), Ramon Laureano GPP($3,100 FD), Austin Riley GPP ($2,200 FD), Adam Duvall GPP ($2,400 FD)

5 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports MLB

9/17 DFS Hitting Picks and Stacks: Mets Marauding Melville

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

We’ve got a loaded 14-game 7:05 EST main slate for MLB 9/17 DFS – one that we’ve got some high game totals for, including another big-time stack at Coors. The lineups get unstable toward the end of the year, but that just gives us more opportunities to embrace the variance and make it fun on this enormous slate.

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9/17 DFS Hitting Stacks of the Day

NewYork Mets at Tim Melville (NYM at COL)

The Mets are expensive but have the highest implied total on the slate. Last night they scored just four runs in Coors but on Tuesday get to face Melville, who’s been torched in his three home starts (.516 xwOBA, 9.00 ERA, 6.31 xFIP). I’ll be applying a liberal smattering of Mets hitters in most of my lineups, with most of my exposure coming with the first five hitters: Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil, Michael Conforto, Robinson Cano and Pete Alonso. Wilson Ramos is a very affordable $2,900 on FD as well, where he can be used in one of two spots.

Boston Red Sox vs. Logan Webb (BOS vs. SF)

The Sox may be missing Mookie Betts (foot) but they’re still a powerful bunch of bats in a hitter’s park. Logan Webb has been tuned up for a .400 xwOBA vs. RHP) during his short time in the Majors, and he’s not going to like the ballpark shift from Oracle. The usual suspects (Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts, J.D. Martinez and Andrew Benintendi) are all $5,000 or under on DK, and Mitch Moreland is just $4,200.

Toronto Blue Jays at Dylan Bundy/Chandler Shepherd

The Blue Jays are a sneaky stack in a slate with Coors Field on the docket, and they’ll be playing in Baltimore, where the homers fly out and the Orioles pitching staff has reached a new nadir in allowing the long ball. I’m stacking the 1-5 with occasional shares of Randal Grichuk ($4,300 DK) and Billy McKinney ($3,300 DK).

Cleveland Indians vs. John Schreiber/Spencer Turnbull (CLE vs.DET)

The Indians are underpriced for the matchup on this 9/17 DFS slate, whether it’s against Schreiber (the possible opener) or Turnbull, who’s really struggled this season (3-15 in 27 starts with a 4.77 ERA and 1.48 WHIP). I’m leaning toward mini-stacks considering there are so many other great matchups on this slate, but feel free to grab shares of the 1-5 hitters and get some exposure to the value bats (Franmil Reyes, Mike Freeman and Jordan Luplow, if he’s in the lineup).

9/17 DFS Hitting Stacks to Consider

Atlanta Braves at Vince Velazquez (It’s tough to fadeFreeman and Co. in a hitter’s park)

Miami Marlins at LHP Alex Young (all the righties –including my guy Starlin Castro)

Colorado Rockies vs. Marcus Stroman (The contrarian side ofCoors against a decent RHP)

9/17 DFS Hitting Catcher

J.T. Realmuto, PHI at ATL

DK ($4,600) FD ($3,900)

I’m a huge fan of Realmuto, who sports a .443 xwOBA and .227 ISO against LHPs over the past two seasons. It’s a one-off play that should command low ownership and provide a decent floor – as well as immense upside in GPPs.

9/17 DFS Hitting First Baseman

Rowdy Tellez, TOR at BAL

DK ($3,900) FD ($2,600)

Tellez has four homers in his last 11 games, crushes right-handedpitching (.453 xwOBA, .245 ISO since 2018), and bats fourth between Lourdes Gurrieland Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. Tellez is my double-dinger call of the day, and he’snot really thrown off by lefty relievers, either (.430 xwOBA against LHPs since2018).

9/17 DFS Hitting Second Baseman

Cavan Biggio, TOR at BAL

DK ($4,500) FD ($3,700)

Biggio is another Jays bat I want exposure to in Camden Yards, where he’s already got three homers in five career games and a 168 OPS+ that screams GPP play. As part of stack or simply a value bat at a reasonable price, Biggio makes a solid play for his speed and power.

9/17 DFS Hitting Third Baseman

Matt Chapman, OAK vs. KC

DK ($4,200) FD ($3,600)

Chapman and his surging power numbers (4 HRs in September so far) couldbe overlooked on this slate, and if you’re wary of spending more than $5K for J.D.Davis but still want to get some other Coors bats in, he could be a big help.All these games matter for the A’s, and Chapman (.423 xwOBA and .250 ISO vs.RHPs since 2018) is the heart and soul of their lineup along with Matt Olsonand Marcus Semien, the other two Oakland bats with 30+ homers this year.

9/17 DFS Hitting Shortstop

Francisco Lindor, CLE vs. DET

DK ($4,800) FD ($4,000)

Lindor is my favorite shortstop of this slate. He gets lotsof ABs and benefits from a circular Indians lineup that has some decent hittersat the bottom of the order – giving him some run-creating opportunities alongwith table-setting ability. His price is cheaper than Xander Bogaerts, Trevor Storyand Bo Bichette on DK (with just as much GPP upside) and he’s playable in allformats at home (where he owns a .386 wOBA and .403 xwOBA sine 2018) against theTigers.

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9/17 DFS Hitting Outfielders

J.D. Martinez, BOS vs. SF

DK ($4,000) FD ($3,200)

Idiscussed the Red Sox stack up top, but if there’s one bat from Boston I’d likein this matchup, it’s J.D. His .506 xwOBA vs. RHPs since 2018 (over a hugesample of 998 plate appearances) means he can hit all types of pitching (it’s apreposterous .560 vs. LHPs) and he’s still surrounded by Bogaerts andBenintendi, who both hit RHPs well. I’m banking on a three-run homer for the RedSox OF/DH in hitter-friendly Fenway against young Logan Webb (.400 xwOBA vs. RHP).

Oscar Mercado, CLE vs. DET

DK ($4,100) FD ($3,000)

Thehome numbers for Mercado are impressive (.290/.340/.477) and his bat has beenshowing some life again (10 hits in his last 26 AB). You’re getting thetalented young OF at a discount on both sites, and he’s a great piece to havein Indians mini stacks along with Lindor and Carlos Santana.

Garrett Hampson, COL vs. NYM

DK ($3,500) FD ($3,200)

Hampson is red-hot at the plate and is dirt cheap onDK. He’s played much better since getting more regular time, starting in theRockies’ last five straight and games and going 11-for-22 over that stretch(counting Monday night). He’s easy to overlook in the lineup as the No. 7 hitterand makes plenty of sense in both cash games and GPPs.

Additional options:

C:Roberto Perez ($3,600 DK, $2,900FD), Reese McGuire ($3,900 DK, $2,800 FD)

1B: Pete Alonso ($5,600 DK, $4,300 FD), Carlos Santana($4,300 DK, $3,900 FD)

2B: Robinson Cano ($4,700 DK, $3,600 FD), Jonathan Villar($4,700 DK, $3,800 FD)

3B: Vladimir Guerrero Jr, ($3,900 DK, $2,900 FD), EugenioSuarez ($4,500 DK, $3,900 FD)

SS: Bo Bichette ($5,400 DK, $3,900 FD), Xander Bogaerts ($5,000DK, 3,800 FD)

OF: Austin Meadows ($5,600 DK, $4,400 FD), Yordan Alvarez ($5,200DK, $4,100 FD), Brandon Nimmo ($4,500 DK, $3,900 FD), Khris Davis ($3,800 DK,$3,200 FD), Michael Brantley ($4,000 DK, $3,800 FD), Matt Joyce ($4,100 DK, $2,400FD)

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB Daily Fantasy Sports

9/5 DFS Hitting Picks and Stacks: Sporting Sox and Dinger Locks

Joel Bartilotta 5 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

On our Thursday 9/5 DFS 7:05 main slate, there are seven ballgames – with one that stands out as a good single-game stack with a couple one-offs (a hot-hitting Cub and some RHBs on the lefty-mashing Houston buzzsaw). Are we ready to, once again, embrace the variance and win some green? You bet we are – and there’s enough pitching value to fade the top arms and build a lineup with serious studs.

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9/5 DFS Hitting Stacks of the Day

Boston Red Sox vs. Martin Perez

Most of this stack’s full-bodied components will be discussed hitterby hitter in greater detail below, but this is my top stack of the slate and I’llhave plenty of exposure to this game in general. The usual suspects apply. TheRed Sox are slashing a robust .285/.355/.506 at home this season and there’s nobodyI’d be careful to avoid.

Minnesota Twins at Nathan Eovaldi

The Twins have a little tougher matchup as they are underdogs inFenway Park, but they’d slashed .319/.384/.584 as a team over the past 7 daysheading into last night’s tough matchup vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (which resultedin a 6-2 loss). Look for the Twins to rebound in a big way against a hittable Eovaldi(6.23 ERA, 5.62 FIP). I like the outfielders (though Max Kepler was removedfrom last night’s game with upper chest soreness) and the slugging infielders (JorgePolanco, Miguel Sano, C.J. Cron, Luis Arraez).

Houston Astros vs. Marco Gonzales

Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and Yuri Gurriel make up the core of this stack, with Michael Brantley and/or Yordan Alvarez rounding it out on FD/DK. But if you’ve only got room for hitters like Aledmys Diaz, Abraham Toro and cheap catching option Robinson Chirinos, there’s still plenty of reason to get excited. The Astros has demolished LHPs this season to the tune of a 133 wRC+ and have great number sat home (.217 team ISO with just an 18.8% K rate – the second lowest in the league).

9/5 DFS Hitting Stacks to Consider

Chicago Cubs at Chase Anderson (Reverse splits pitcher and an implied total near 5 runs)

Baltimore Orioles vs. Kolby Allard (high-risk/value/contrarian)

Tampa Rays vs. Trent Thornton (high-risk/value/contrarian)

9/5 DFS Hitting Catcher

Jason Castro, MIN at BOS UPDATE: Castro is not in the starting lineup

PIVOT: Robinson Chirinos, HOU vs. SEA

DK ($3,400) FD ($3,000)

With Castro starting this game out on the bench, I’m pivoting to Chirinos. He’s about the same price and offers similar upside in this matchup. Chirinos sports a .444 xwOBA in 174 ABs (217 plate appearances) vs. LHPs over the past couple of seasons.

9/5 DFS Hitting First Baseman

Yuri Gurriel, HOU vs. SEA

DK ($4,300) FD ($3,600)

Gurriel has cooled off a little bit since his insane July (.408/.437/.847 in 24 games), but not much, as he posted a .344/.423/.677 slash in August. He’s actually a little better against RHPs but maintains a .237 ISO vs. lefties, so he’s maybe a tad contrarian if you’re mini-stacking stacking Astros along with Boston bats. The .298 home ISO and 148 home wRC+ make him an attractive option.

9/5 DFS Hitting Second Baseman

Jose Altuve, HOU vs. SEA

DK ($4,500) FD ($4,300)

Altuve (.302/.369/.599 with 14 HR at home this season) isunderpriced on DK and the Astros have the second highest implied total (about 6runs) on the evening slate. The diminutive slugger has been in a bit of a funk withno XBH on the five-game road trip, but a return to friendlier confines could bejust what he needs. It’s hard to find better implied value at this position, sowhy look past the five-and-a-half footer if we’re putting our best foot forward?

9/5 DFS Hitting Third Baseman

Rafael Devers, BOS vs. MIN

DK ($5,300) FD($4,100)

Lefty on lefty for Devers hasn’t bothered me since he took AroldisChapman deep as a youngster for the Sox, and he’ll be an overlooked part of theBoston stack and low-owned because of it. He’s completely avoidable if you’renot stacking this team, but I love going with Devers at 3B because he’s alwaysin the thick of this offense and his production this season (.320/.369/.579 slashwith 29 HR and 107 RBI) shows it.

9/5 DFS Hitting Shortstop

Xander Bogaerts, BOS vs. MIN

DK ($5,300) FD ($4,100)

We’ve had success recently with Bogaerts, and this is agreat matchup for the power-hitting SS to show off his .416 xwOBA against LHPs overthe past two seasons. Martin Perez isn’t a bad pitcher these days, but he has stillyielded a .184 ISO and .865 OPS since 2018. I’ve been doing well not overthinkingon Xander, so that’ll continue as I plug him into most of my lineups at SS. Thesomewhat underpriced Alex Bregman ($4,900 DK, $4,400 FD) is the obvious pivotat 3B and SS if you’re not anxious play both Devers and Bogaerts.

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9/5 DFS Hitting Outfielders

Mookie Betts, BOS vs. MIN

DK ($5,000) FD ($4,200)

Bettshad a monster game last night and when Mookie gets hot, you continue to playhim. Boston’s leadoff hitter connected for a couple homers last night en routeto a 4-for-5, five RBI night. He’s still underpriced at $5K on DK and is a Benjamincheaper than J.D. Martinez on FD. Since the start of 2018, Betts is sporting anxwOBA of .430 against LHPs and even if Perez gets yanked early, a righthander faceseven more obscene Betts data (.468 xwOBA vs. RHPs and home xwOBA of .478).

Nicholas Castellanos, CHI at MIL

DK ($4,500) FD ($3,500)

Mr. Castellanos has taken the Windy City by storm, and he getsto travel to Milwaukee to hit in a controlled environment. The problem is thatthese walls cannot possibly contain him either, and he’s been a revelatory offensivepowerhouse since joining the Cubs in a deadline deal, slashing .346/.378/.709 witha ridiculous .362 ISO, .439 wOBA, 12 homers and 24 RBI in just 31 games. It’snot just Wrigley, either: the bell-ringer has split his dingers 6/6 betweenhome and road. Plus, he’s massively underpriced facing a reverse-splits righty (ChaseAnderson) on a small slate. It’ll be tough to leave him out in any format.

Sam Travis, BOS vs. MIN

DK ($3,300) FD (1B $2,800)

The Sox are my favorite team and Travis is much-welcomed valueto help you finish them off on FD with these four hitters I’ve listed, or even addin another bat on DK if you’re going that route. He hits lefties well (.382 xwOBA,.200 ISO and under a 20% strikeout rate over the past two seasons). He’s higherrisk and may attract some ownership, but at that low, low price I’ll make roomto differentiate elsewhere.

Additional options:

C: Wilson Contreras ($4,200 DK, $3,100 FD), Travis d’Arnaud($4,000 DK, $2,700 FD)

1B: Josh Bell ($4,800 DK, $4,200 FD), Garrett Cooper (valueat $3,500 DK, $2,700 FD)

2B: Jonathan Schoop ($4,600 DK, $3,100 FD), Starlin Castro($3,500 DK, $3,000 FD)

3B: Abraham Toro ($2,600 DK, $3,200 FD, Miguel Sano ($5,100DK, $3,900 FD)

SS: Alex Bregman, Jonathan Villar ($4,700 DK, $3,400 FD)and possibly Javier Baez (thumb, DTD – $4,600 DK, $4,100)

OF: Twins galore (Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario, Nelson Cruz, JakeCave), Trey Mancini, Anthony Santander and Ryan Braun (.475 xwOBA vs. LHPs, 415ISO including five career HR vs. Jose Quintana)

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

The MLB DFS Hitting Picks Of Destiny For August 31

Gerald Colvin 5 years ago

written by Gerald Colvin

This Saturday August 31st slate is all about landing the right bats. Follow my stud and value plays and lock in the MLB DFS Picks of Destiny.

Check out our Data Driven Projections for FanDuel Hitters for Premium Gold Members.

Todays picks are listed in order of preference, not price.

David Jones won 100K on FanDuel! Read about it here!

Catcher: Tom Murphy ($2,900 FD) The new and improved young Mariners lineup is hitting lefties well and not many people have noticed. Murphy has 11 home runs in only 97 at bats. He hits 412 ISO/.458 wOBA and faces Brock Burke in the hitter friendly Globe Life Park. Brock has looked good in his major league debut, but I think that is more luck than skill personally. In the minors he had a 7.88 ERA. Look for Murphy, Nola and Seager to keep the Mariners in the game.

Catcher Value: None

First Base: Albert Pujols ($2,900 FD) I love Pujols at this price, vs Brian Johnson (L), at home, on a Saturday night. Pujols is hitting lefties better than righties this year, with 10 home runs in 147 ABs. There is something about Pujols at home on Saturday. He just tends to exceed value. I will lock him in at a cheap $2,900.

First Base Pivot: Danny Santana, Sam Travis, Austin Nola

Second Base: KiKi Hernandez ($2,700 FD) is on a hot streak and his price is not rising. In his last five games he has scored double digit fantasy points four times. He has exceeded 20 FanDuel points three times in the same time frame. Robbie Ray is on the bump and is not necessarily an easy target, unless you name is KiKi. He hits Ray at .395 ISO/.405 wOBA with four home runs against him in 38 at bats in his career. Dodgers look like they are in a sneaky MLB DFS spot tonight.

Second Base Pivot: Ryan McMahon, Adam Frazier

Third Base: Rafael Devers ($4,300 FD) hits .211 ISO/.344 wOBA vs lefties and is always a threat to go deep. Dillion Peters has given up three home runs in his last 8.2 innings pitched. A few Red Sox are going to hit one over the wall tonight and statistically Devers has one of the best chances. Red Sox are becoming my favorite MLB DFS stack of the night.

Third Base Pivot: Jose Osuna, Kyle Seager

Shortstop: Trevor Story ($4,100 FD) Shortstop looks loaded tonight but Story appears to be in the top spot. The Pirates are rolling out Joe Musgrove and they tend to want to let him go deep, whether he is getting hit or not. Tonight I think he gets hit. Rockies came out a bit flat last night and broke at lot of hearts at high ownership but that will not scare me off of them tonight. Story is hitting .274 ISO/ .382 wOBA with 23 home runs vs righties on the season.

Short Stop Pivots: Trea Turner, Kevin Newman, Xander Bogaerts (I think you have to pay up at SS tonight)

Outfield: J.D. Martinez ($4,500 FD) destroys lefties and gets to tee off vs Dillon Peters. He has given up six home runs in his last five games but still has managed a decent 4.11 ERA on the season. JD is hitting .483 ISO/.539 wOBA this season with 16 home runs in 118 ABs. He went deep last night and he has a great chance to do it again. If I end up stacking Red Sox, he would be the first bat I try to get in.

Outfield: Sam Hilliard ($3,100 FD) His price keeps sneaking up but at $3,100 he still can easily exceed value. In his short MLB debut he is hitting .545 ISO/.509 wOBA. Of course this will regress, but he is off to a very nice start. He has two home runs in his 11 AB’s vs righties in the majors. I am not scared to target Joe Musgrove tonight, especially in Coors. He has a 4.67 ERA on the season, and tonight shouldn’t help make that any better.

Outfield: Kole Calhoun ($3,300) The Angels will face lefty Brian Johnson (6.83 ERA) for the “bulk” of the game. Calhoun hits southpaws at .203/.441/.746 on the season. I expect the Angels to score enough to have a chance to win tonight and Calhoun should be batting around the cleanup spot and have the opportunity to help clear the bases. At $3,300 on FD he make for a nice MLB DFS value play.

Outfield Pivots: Willie Calhoun, Brian Goodwin, Aristides Aquino

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5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

The MLB DFS Hitting Picks Of Destiny For August 18

David Jones 5 years ago

written by David Jones

This Sunday August 18th slate is all about landing the right bats. Follow my stud and value plays and lock in the MLB DFS Picks of Destiny.

Check out our Data Driven Projections for FanDuel Hitters for Premium Gold Members.

Todays picks are listed in order of preference, not price.

David Jones won 100K on FanDuel this week! Read about it here!

Catcher: Danny Jansen ($2,800 FD) has three home runs in his last six games an no one plays him because he is at the bottom of the order. The Blue Jays should beat up on Yusei Kikuchi (L) today. He carries a 5.56 ERA and 1.52 WHIP. He has given up seven home runs in his last 12.1 innings. Jansen has five home runs in 92 at bats this year and hits lefties at .216 ISO/.332 wOBA.

Catcher: Will Smith ($3,600) Against lefties this season the Fresh Prince has two home runs in 26 at bats. He has a .308 ISO/.389 wOBA. The game starts at 1:20pm today in ATL and it will be HOT. He goes against Max Fried, who I do have a lot of respect for. In his last three game he has not given up a home run, but that doesn’t mean he can’t. If Smith is batting close to the top of the order, I like it even more.

First Base: Pete Alonso ($4,200 FD) goes against Glenn Sparkman. Spark has a 5.45 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. He has given up seven home runs in his last five. Alonso has the best bat on the Mets and is most likely to take Spark deep. He has 27 home runs this season and is hitting .305 ISO/ .406 wOBA vs righties.

First Base: Sam Travis ($2,900 FD) is too cheap for his opportunity today. He goes against my favorite pitcher to target, Ty Blach. Travis has four homers vs lefties and bats .241 ISO/.368 wOBA. He looks like the best value at first today.

Honorable Mentions: Matt Adams

Second Base: Keston Hiura ($3,500 FD) is always contributing. The Brewers get a totally depleted Washington BP today after they used nine pitchers in last nights OT blowout. The Nats should be leaving Fedde in as long as possible and that is something the Brew Crew can take advantage of. Hiura has 13 home runs on 164 AB’s this season and hits .323 ISO/.442 wOBA. He has double digit MLB DFS points in six of his last eight games.

Second Base Austin Nola ($2,500 FD) Uh oh. I like some Mariners today. Nola will get the lefty long reliever Thomas Pannone for the majority of the game. He has also been bumped up to third in the batting order. Nola has three home runs in 44 AB’s vs southpaws. Pannone has a 6.39 ERA. I am going to invest in some of this Mariners MLB DFS value at very low ownership today.

Honorable Mentions: Bo Bichette

Third Base: Rafael Devers ($4,200 FD) Get ready for fireworks in Boston vs Ty Blach (13.94 ERA) Devers hit lefties well at .279 ISO/.388 wOBA and is going to be in the heart of the Boston lineup who has 7.5 implied runs. I’m stacking the Red Sox today.

Third Base: Kyle Seager ($3,500 FD) has eight home runs off lefties in only 87 AB’s this year. He hits them at .267/.337/.575 and gets Thomas Pannone who I am not afraid to target, even if the Mariners offense isn’t particularly intimidating. Seager has been hot lately too. He has a hit in 11 games straight with six home runs in the same time frame.

Short Stop: Xander Bogaerts ($4,200 FD) is another Red Sox bat to roster vs Blach. He hits lefties at .279 ISO/.388 wOBA with eight home runs on the season. The Red Sox are getting to Blach (13.94 ERA), you just got to pick the right ones.

Short Stop: Trae Turner ($3,900 FD) is getting it done every night and is only priced at $3,900. He is batting lead vs Chase Anderson (3.78 ERA) who has been fine, but he is going to be asked to stay in the game longer today and I can see it falling apart for him. The Nationals probably didnt sleep so well after losing the way they did last night in extra innings. I expect them to be motivated for revenge today.

Outfield: JD Martinez (4,200 FD) vs is lefty is always something you need to consider. When he is vs a bad lefty you just lock him in. Ty Blach is pitching in Fenway today. He has a 13.94 ERA and 2.71 WHIP. WOOF. In he last three starts he has not made it past the fourth inning and gave up 16 runs. JD has 14 homers on the season vs left hander and he is getting another one today.

Outfield: Christian Yelich ($4,700) gets the worn out Nationals BP today too. He is elite with 30 HR on the season and hitting .405 ISO/.502 wOBA. Not much analysis needed. #AlwaysYelich.

Outfield Value: Tim Lopes ($2,500 FD) is batting lead off for the Mariners today. Why do I care? Because the long reliever is a Lefty and Lopes hits them .308/.357/.615. The Mariners put him up top for a reason today and he will hit value at $2,500. Also no one will own him, except for us.

Honorable Mentions: Aristides Aquino, Randal Grichuk

I primary used FanDuel when building optimal MLB DFS lineups.

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JD Martinez

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Eduardo Rodriguez ($9,800)

Best GPP Value: J.A. Happ ($8,100)

The other GPP Play: Wade Miley ($8,800)

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Boston Red Sox

GPP Value Stack: St. Louis Cardinals

Contrarian GPP Stack: Miami Marlins

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Clayton Kershaw ($11,000)

Best GPP Value: Jake Odorizzi ($7,200)

Contrarian GPP Play: Alex Cobb ($8,500)

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: St. Louis Cardinals vs. COL LHP Kyle Freeland

Value Stack: San Francisco Giants vs. ARI RHP Jacob Faria

Contrarian Stack: Oakland Athletics vs. BOS RHP Garrett Richards

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Nathan Eovaldi ($8,200)

Best GPP Value: Dinelson Lamet ($7,500)

Contrarian GPP Play: Jordan Montgomery ($7,000)

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: San Diego Padres vs. ARI RHP Merrill Kelly

Value Stack: San Francisco Giants vs. OAK RHP Frankie Montas

Contrarian Stack: Boston Red Sox vs. LHP Jordan Montgomery

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Walker Buehler ($10,500)

Best GPP Value: Chris Bassitt ($8,800)

Contrarian GPP Value: Robbie Ray ($9,100)

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Boston Red Sox vs. PHI RHP Spencer Howard

Value Stack: San Diego Padres vs. SEA LHP Justus Sheffield

Contrarian Stack: Oakland Athletics vs. LAA LHP Patrick Sandoval

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top Ace: Clayton Kershaw ($11,000)

Best GPP Value: Ian Anderson ($7,900)

Contrarian GPP Value: Garrett Richards ($7,400)

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Atlanta Braves vs. PHI RHP Vince Velasquez

Value Stack: Houston Astros vs. TOR LHP Steven Matz

Contrarian Stack: Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles LHP Zac Lowther

9/24 DFS Hitting Stacks of the Day

Red Sox at Edinson Vólquez/Ariel Jurado

Houston Astros at Justin Dunn/Tommy Milone

TorontoBlue Jays at Dylan Bundy

9/24 DFS Hitting Stacks to Consider

9/24 DFS Hitting Catcher

Christian Vazquez, BOS at TEX

DK ($4,600) FD($3,200)

9/24 DFS Hitting First Baseman

Carlos Santana, CLE at DET

DK (4,900) FD ($4,000)

9/24 DFS Hitting Second Baseman

Cavan Biggio, TOR at BAL

DK ($4,900) FD ($3,700)

9/24 DFS Hitting Third Baseman

Manny Machado, SD vs. LAD (3B/SS on DK)

(DK $3,700) FD($3,000)

9/24 DFS Hitting Shortstop

Corey Seager, LAD at SD

DK ($4,700) FD($3,800)

9/24 DFS Hitting Outfielders

Cody Bellinger, LOS at SD (1B/OF on DK)

DK ($4,800) FD($3,200)

Ronald Acuna, Jr., ATL at KC

DK ($5,300) FD ($4,400)

Austin Hays, BAL at TORDK ($3,800) FD ($2,700)

9/24 DFS Additional Stack Options:

9/17 DFS Hitting Stacks of the Day

NewYork Mets at Tim Melville (NYM at COL)

Boston Red Sox vs. Logan Webb (BOS vs. SF)

Toronto Blue Jays at Dylan Bundy/Chandler Shepherd

Cleveland Indians vs. John Schreiber/Spencer Turnbull (CLE vs.DET)

9/17 DFS Hitting Stacks to Consider

9/17 DFS Hitting Catcher

J.T. Realmuto, PHI at ATL

DK ($4,600) FD ($3,900)

9/17 DFS Hitting First Baseman

Rowdy Tellez, TOR at BAL

DK ($3,900) FD ($2,600)

Austin Hays, BAL at TOR
DK ($3,800) FD ($2,700)

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