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Jared Goff

NFL DFS Cash Games – Week Seven Checkdown

StixPicks 5 years ago

written by StixPicks

Week Six was an awesome one for the Win Daily Team. NFL DFS Cash Games came back to life after a ridiculously high scoring Week Five that made it difficult to cash in any tournament format. We crushed our Week Six Cash Games and even the sample lineup from last week’s Checkdown finished with 160 DraftKings points! Let’s get right back to it for the Week Seven Checkdown for your NFL DFS Cash Games.

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My articles will be mainly meant for DraftKings, but you can certainly use this information for other DFS websites. Please check back in on Saturday/Sunday morning for potential NFL DFS Cash Games updates.

If you have any questions and would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter. I’m always available to help NFL DFS players make the most of their investments.

Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week Seven, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

This is another great week to lock in two “stud” running backs and take advantage of the value available at WR/TE.
Just like Weeks Five and Six, there are a lot of great plays at the wide receiver position – I don’t think you have to focus on any one player here when building your cash lineups.
Just because someone is not included in this write-up, does not mean you cannot play them in cash. These are all just my preferred plays for an optimal cash game build.
Full disclosure: I will be playing a lot of DFS Cash Games this week and will be using the same lineup for all of them. As of now, I will 100% be using: Goff, Fournette, Cook, Hooper, and a Rams WR. The others will only be players mentioned in this article.

NFL DFS Cash Games Quarterbacks

Lamar Jackson ($6,800) – The floor is always there for Lamar Jackson due his to ability to be a Top 10 rusher on any given slate. There is also a high total (opening at 50.5 points) in this matchup in Seattle… a lot to like about Lamar Jackson in Week Seven.
Russell Wilson ($6,600) – Wilson has to be the favorite for the NFL MVP right now. He’s always in play for cash games as he’s proved he is matchup proof.
Josh Allen ($6,500) – Love the matchup, hate the price. We usually love Josh Allen because he’s sub $6,000 in salary most weeks and always provides a solid floor of rushing yards. Buffalo is a massive favorite in this game where they host Miami, but I still think Josh Allen is safe for 18+ DraftKings points.
~~Aaron Rodgers ($6,400) –~~ Although it’s minimal, Rodgers is now cheaper than Josh Allen, lol. I will only use Rodgers if Davante Adams is back in the lineup (which doesn’t appear to be probable). If Adams is in, I love Rodgers in this spot. ~~I’ll update this one throughout the week.~~ A lot of injury concerns. No need to pay up for Rodgers with Goff in such a prime spot.
Jared Goff ($6,200) – EVERYONE destroys this Atlanta secondary. Kyler Murray was my preferred cash game QB in Week Six due to the matchup, and Goff is going to be my preferred play this week for that exact same reason. The Rams just got embarrassed at home. They are due for an offensive explosion and that will come this week.
Jacoby Brissett ($5,600) – If you need salary relief, Brissett is your man in Week Seven. The Houston Texans just beat the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium, but they left Missouri with some bad news.

The Texans top cover cornerback, Bradley Roby, suffered a significant hamstring injury and is going to miss multiple games. Their other top cornerback, Johnathan Joseph didn’t even suit up in Week Six due to injury and will be questionable for Sunday’s game.

Brissett and the Colts’ passing attack should have no issues moving the ball at home this week against a banged up Texans’ defense.
~~Gardner Minshew ($5,400) –~~ Not a preferred play by any means, but if you somehow need to save an extra $200 and cannot afford Brissett, Minshew should be competent enough to get 15+ points against the Bengals. This defense has yet to give up a 300-yard passing game to an opposing QB, so tread lightly.

Again, if you HAVE to save $200 in salary, you can use Minshew. It’s best to avoid this play because we really need to take advantage of the three-point bonus DraftKings offers for 300+ passing yards. I added some more players at RB/WR that should help you avoid needing Minshew.

NFL DFS Cash Games Running Backs

Dalvin Cook ($8,000) – Not much to say about Dalvin Cook. He is the top running back on the slate and is going up against a Detroit defense that has struggled to defend the run. The Lions have already given up five touchdowns to opposing running backs in just four games, and we all know how much touchdown equity Dalvin Cook possesses.
~~Alvin Kamara ($7,500) –~~ The Bears defense is good, maybe even great, but Oakland showed us two weeks ago that you can beat them by running right at Khalil Mack. Kamara should get back on track this week in a slow-paced battle in the trenches against the Bears. Injury concerns and a very low-total in this game. Just use Cook/Fournette for your top-tier RBs.
Leonard Fournette ($7,000) – Incredible value for a running back who’s usage is through the roof. The Bengals consistently get destroyed by opposing running backs. Fournette should carry 90% ownership in NFL DFS Cash Games in Week Seven. You cannot fade him in this spot.
Chris Carson ($6,500) – Another game, another 25+ touches for Chris Carson. Baltimore is tied for the NFL lead in touchdowns allowed to opposing running backs, so there isn’t a real reason to fear this matchup (especially with the Seahawks being at home).
Tevin Coleman ($5,600) – The timeshare with Breida has me a little concerned, but Coleman should find his way to 80 all-purpose yards and a score. Enough to hit value.
Devonta Freeman ($5,400) – Devonta Freeman is starting to be featured more and more in this Falcons’ offense. The pass catching is increasing and we’re seeing less Ito Smith. I don’t love this matchup, but Freeman is an excellent choice for cheap exposure to the game with the highest total on the slate.

I have Freeman projected for 92 all purpose yards and a touchdown. That should be more than enough production to hit value in DFS.
Frank Gore ($5,200) – Miami is awful. Buffalo is a 16-point home favorite. This smells like a solid outing for Frank Gore, but there’s nothing sexy about rostering him above a $5,000 price tag.
Kerryon Johnson ($5,100) – Similar to Devonta Freeman, Johnson is starting to take full responsibility in the Lions’ rushing attack. The Vikings are stingy against opposing running backs, but at this price, Kerryon Johnson is worth mentioning for cash game builds.
Josh Jacobs ($5,000) – My number one value play at the running back position. The Packers run defense has been brutal thus far and should have their hands full with a three-down, elusive running back like Josh Jacobs. Not to mention, Jacobs is coming off of the best game of his young career and will have fresh legs after a bye week.

Wide Receivers

Michael Thomas ($7,900) – Always in play for cash, but the price is high. If you build around Goff, Fournette, Josh Jacobs, and a cheaper tight end, you should be able to afford Michael Thomas. This is not an ideal matchup for Thomas to exploit, but the double-digit floor will be there.
DeAndre Hopkins ($7,800) – 100% cash viable against a Colts’ secondary that will have issues with these Texans wideouts.
Cooper Kupp ($7,400) – Thankfully, we faded Kupp (at ~35% ownership) in NFL DFS Cash Games in Week Six. Kupp is coming off of one of the worst games of his NFL career but enters Week Seven in an absolute smash matchup against the Falcons’ poor-excuse of a secondary. If the Falcons plan on using Damontae Kazee to cover Kupp on Sunday, they are in for a long day.
Larry Fitzgerald ($6,100) – Fitzgerald always makes the writeup, but I’m starting to doubt his ceiling as a DFS target. His floor will always be there, but if we keep having these weeks where we need 160+ points to cash in 50/50s, Fitzgerald may find his way out of the weekly writeup. Luckily, this is a nice matchup for Fitzgerald to feast in.
Robert Woods ($5,900) – If you can’t afford Kupp, use Woods. Hell, use both if you love this Rams’ matchup as much as I do.
T.Y. Hilton ($5,900) – If we like Brissett, we have to like Hilton. Great price for a player who offers a 30-point ceiling.
~~Golden Tate ($5,800) –~~ If Evan Engram misses this game, Tate should be a borderline lock-button player for cash. Patrick Peterson is finally returning for the Cardinals this week, but he shouldn’t shadow Tate in the slot. If anyone is to perform for this Giants’ receiving corps, it’s going to be Tate. Engram should play, I still like Tate, but not as much as I do without Evan Engram.
Kenny Golladay ($5,800) – Why is he so cheap? If Alshon Jeffrey can have a day against the Vikings’ cornerbacks, Golladay should have no issues.
Allen Robinson ($5,500) – Robinson needs to be priced up in the $6k range. He is an absolute target monster and is a lock for 12+ DraftKings points.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($5,200) – Only cash viable if Davante Adams is out. Keep an eye on his injury status.
Mike Williams ($4,600) – I don’t see a whole lot of “punt” options at the wide receiver position, so Mike Williams is probably as low as I’ll go at the moment. He offers DFS players a very high ceiling and should get in the box in Week Seven. This is a must-win game for the Chargers, so I’m confident Phil Rivers will do his part to carve up this Titans’ secondary. If I’m right, Mike Williams will be a big part of that.
Auden Tate ($4,500) – The targets are going to continue to be there (assuming A.J. Green does not suit up). With Jalen Ramsey now on the Rams, Tate should see a lot of Tre Herndon (who is seven inches shorter than the big-framed Auden Tate).
Dante Pettis ($4,100) – I needed to add one more “punt” typer of player as we may need other avenues for salary relief. I hate to recommend Pettis in cash (he will heavily used in my MME GPP player pool), but Pettis has been getting more involved with the 49ers’ offense and should destroy Fabian Moreau in the slot on Sunday.
Allen Lazard ($3,000) – Absolute free square. If these Packers’ top wideouts miss the game (Davante Adams already ruled out), you 100% must lock in Lazard for cash games.

Tight Ends

Keep in mind, George Kittle and Evan Engram are 100% in play this week, but I will not include them in the writeup. I’ve mentioned above that the optimal cash build is most likely going to be based around paying down at tight end.

Austin Hooper ($5,300) – How is he not in the $6k price range? Lock him in.
Mark Andrews ($4,900) – Great price, great matchup. If Baltimore falls behind to Russell Wilson and the Seahawks early, Andrews should be in for a career day. If this game paces down a bit, Andrews will still see seven or more targets and easily hit value.
Darren Waller ($4,700) – Waller is Derek Carr’s first look in the passing game. I think it’s a safe bet that he sees eight or more targets against a Packers’ team that should get an early lead and force Oakland to pass more than they’d like to.
Hunter Henry ($4,000) – Welcome back, Hunter Henry! At this price, you cannot go wrong with locking in Henry. Outside of Hooper, Henry will be my top choice at the tight end position. Recency bias should up his ownership a bit (I’d be selling Henry immediately in season-long leagues).
Gerald Everett ($3,700) – Simply a price play. Atlanta struggles against anyone who runs a route.

Defense/Special Teams

Buffalo Bills ($4,300)
San Francisco 49ers ($4,100)
Chicago Bears ($3,000)
New Orleans Saints ($2,900)
New York Giants ($2,500)

NFL DFS Cash Games – Sample Lineup

QB: Jared Goff
RB: Dalvin Cook
RB: Leonard Fournette
WR: Dante Pettis
WR: Allen Robinson
WR: Robert Woods
TE: Austin Hooper
FLEX: Josh Jacobs
DST: Chicago Bears

5 years ago 0 comment

Week 6 DFS QB Picks: Cash, GPP and Value Targets

5 years ago

written by

Week 6 DFS QB Picks gives us an All-In game along with a couple of matchups that feel more like Opposite Day. It’s also a week where a Dolphins quarterback (stop laughing, damn you!) has value and Carson Wentz feels like a banana peel waiting on someone to step upon him.

Main slate’s the thing, so you’re on your own for Giants-Patriots (Thursday night), Steelers-Chargers (Sunday night) and Lions-Packers (Monday night). The Week 6 bye also means no Bills, Bears, Colts nor Raiders.

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Week 6 DFS QB Picks – Cash Game Passers

1) Matt Ryan, ATL at ARI

DK ($6,100), FD ($8,400)

Ryan shares the league lead attempts per game with the Rams’ Jared Goff, as both average 44.4 attempts per game. In what will be a matchup between the third (Falcons) and fourth (Cardinals)-worst Fantasy defenses against opposing quarterbacks, I don’t suspect Atlanta will suddenly discover the ground and pound to succeed.

Only Dak Prescott has more air yards (1,006) than Ryan’s 972, although Ryan has a 683-600 edge in yards after catch. With a generous over/under of 52, I’d play Ryan since there will be a number of other quarterbacks who will have higher ownership. Both the Falcons and Cardinals allow 2.4 passing TDs per game, so expect Ryan to stay on average.

2) Russell Wilson, SEA at CLE

DK ($5,200), FD ($7,000)

The scary part about Wilson is that he’s beginning to scramble more. That translates into 8.0 per carry each time Wilson scrambles away from would-be sackers. The Browns looked disinterested in Monday’s loss and played much of the second half as if they were thinking about the menu on the flight back.

Myles Garrett be damned, the Browns are going to struggle containing Wilson’s corps of physical skill position players, including WR D.J. Metcalf, TE Wil Dissly and RB Chris Carson. Wilson is also second only to Prescott in air yards per pass attempt, and as deadly accurate as he’s been much of the season, that should parlay into devastatingly good numbers.

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Week 6 DFS QB Picks – GPP Passers

1) Deshaun Watson, HOU at KC

DK ($6,700), FD ($8,400)

Keep in mind the Chiefs are 19th in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposing quarterbacks. That should temper his ownership, but it won’t. Watson could have WR Kenny Stills back, and there’s little reason to think DeAndre Hopkins will be neglected as he was last week when Will Fuller V had 17 of Watson’s 33 targets. Kansas City does allow 133.6 yards per game on the ground, and it wouldn’t shock me if head coach Bill O’Brien selects to go methodical instead of a potential track meet.

2) Patrick Mahomes, KC vs. HOU

DK ($7,500), FD ($9,200)

Salary and ownership keeps him out of Cash Game consideration. If Watson will be the most owned of Sunday’s main slate, then Mahomes will be right behind him. The Texans are 27th in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing QBs and 26th in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing receivers. Signs are indicating that Tyreek Hill could be back in the lineup, enhancing Mahomes’ 10.4 average depth of target, third-best in the league. One concern is his bad throw rate of 20.5%, fourth-highest among eligible QBs. Keep that in mind considering that Texans DE J.J. Watt is starting to hit his stride.

3) Kirk Cousins, MIN vs. PHI

DK ($6,700), FD ($8,400)

He’s at his best when lining up with three wide receivers. Cousins has a rating of 111.8 and a 71.7% completion rate when he has three wideouts at his stead. Cousins is also pretty damn effective with a lone setback, pulling in a 108.9 rating while completing 75% of his passes. Even with the stellar performance against the Jets on Sunday, the Eagles are still 29th overall against the pass. He’s still enough of a bargain to play in GPP format.

4) Kyler Murray, ARI vs. ATL

DK ($6,500), FD ($7,700)

As earlier mentioned, the Falcons are 30th in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposing QBs. We saw Murray rush for 93 yards and a touchdown in last week’s win, making his running ability (10.9 yards per scramble) an added problem for an Atlanta defense that gives up 263.2 yards in the air. The injuries to the Cards’ receiving corps is a mild concern, but RB Chase Sheffield has offered a surprising source of depth that shouldn’t impact the number of targets RB David Johnson gets.

5) Gardner Minshew, JAC vs. NO

DK ($5,000), FD ($6,900)

Good Number: Cracked 20+ Fantasy points for the first time. Underrated runner with a 8.3 yards per scramble mark.

Bad Number: Modest average depth of target (8.0) is 16th overall. Saints are 28th in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposing passers, which means Minshew must be more aggressive.

6) Andy Dalton, CIN at BAL

DK ($5,400), FD ($7,000)

Good Number: He’s completed at least 20 passes in each of his five games. The Bengals have spent much of the season in catch-up mode, so expect Dalton to maintain his average of 40.8 attempts per game.

Bad Number: Currently on pace to be sacked 64 times. Help, please.

7) Carson Wentz, PHI at MIN

DK ($6,000), FD ($7,500)

Good Number: Just how good would the Eagles be if Wentz played the entire game as if were the second half? Wentz has a 106.8 passer rating with a 6-0 TD:INT margin after intermission.

Bad Number: Nine dropped passes from his receiving corps. DeSean Jackson comes back WHEN?

8) Jared Goff, LAR vs. SF

DK ($6,100), FD ($7,600)

Good Number: Fourth in the league with 891 air yards. We knew the Rams had a top-tier Fantasy receiver, but we didn’t know it would be Cooper Kupp, at least not this soon.

Bad Number: No QB has been blitzed more than Goff, who has seen extra defenders in the backfield 79 times. To his credit, though, Goff has been hit just seven times.

9) Jimmy Garoppolo, SF at LAR

DK ($5,700), FD ($7,200)

Good Number: Has yet to produce a monster yardage outing, but you have to like the 69% completion rate despite not having a wide receiver with more than 17 targets.

Bad Number: Without a receiver with more than 17 targets, Garoppolo’s reliance on George Kittle could be comprised by a Rams defense that does a decent job containing TEs.

10) Dak Prescott, DAL at NYJ

DK ($6,200), FD ($8,000)

Good Number: Currently the only passer with more than 1,000 air yards (1,006).

Bad Number: Tied with Jared Goff with a league-high 11 dropped passes. You can make a good case for the Cowboys being 5-0 if his receivers had better hands.

Week 6 DFS QB Picks – Punt & Value Passers

1) Josh Rosen, MIA vs. WAS

DK ($4,500), FD ($6,400)

The Redskins have the second-worst Fantasy defense against quarterbacks, and Rosen gets a healthy receiving corps. He’s a very strong value play.

2) Lamar Jackson, BAL vs. CIN

DK ($6,900), FD ($8,000)

Jackson will lose some trust after throwing three picks in Week 5. This could be his best game to date when it comes to running the ball, as the Bengals allow 30.4 rushing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks, a total second only to the Falcons.

3) Teddy Bridgewater, NO at JAC

DK ($5,300), FD ($7,300)

Don’t count on a lot of passing yardage from Bridgewater. At best, he’ll offer DFSers a poor man’s version of Jacoby Brissett.

4) Marcus Mariota, TEN at DEN

DK ($4,900), FD ($6,500)

Throwing the ball on the Broncos remains an unwelcome task, as Denver has the fifth-best Fantasy defense against opposing passers. It doesn’t help Mariota’s cause that he’s had 10 passes dropped on him.

5) Joe Flacco, DEN vs. TEN

DK ($4,800), FD ($6,600)

At the very least, Flacco is beginning to make a star out of second-year wideout Courtland Sutton, who has six receptions of better than 20 yards and has converted 20 of his 26 receptions into first downs.

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5 years ago 0 comment

NFL

Week 5 DFS QB Picks: Cash, GPP and Value Targets

5 years ago

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Welcome to Week 5 of DFS QB Picks, a world where Gardner Minshew II has more Fantasy points than Tom Brady. It’s also a world in which Jacoby Brissett is tied for the league lead in touchdown passes and Lamar Jackson is on pace toward 4,440 passing yards and 952 rushing yards.

It’s also the same world where Patrick Mahomes has the most Fantasy points, so the world isn’t that unusual.

As usual, it’s the main slate that has our focus, so Rams-Seahawks (Thursday), Colts-Chiefs (Sunday night) and Browns-49ers (Monday night) get slight mention. Week 5 is a bye for the Lions and, alas, the Dolphins.

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Week 5 DFS QB Picks – Cash Game Passers

1) Jameis Winston, TB at NO

DK ($6,200), FD ($7,600)

Uh…let him air it out? It’s worked the past two games, as Winston has completed 51 of 87 passes for 765 yards with seven touchdowns and two interceptions. The Saints are 29th in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposing quarterbacks, and while the 1.5 TD passes per game is modest, they have also given up 24 yards and a score per game on the ground to opposing passers.

With Matt Stafford off this week, Winston has the league’s best average depth of target at 10.8 yards. He leads all passers with 8.7 air yards per pass completion and is second to Matt Ryan with 759 air yards. The Saints are 23rd in yards per completion, and with that game in a closed environment, I’d throw away any past Winston has had against the Saints and trust that Bruce Arians will let him whip it all Sunday afternoon.

2) Tom Brady, NE at WAS

DK ($6,500), FD ($7,600)

He managed just four Fantasy points against the Bills last week, but gets a huge rebound outing on the road against a Redskins defense that is 28th in opposing QB rating at 112.4. Only the Dolphins have a higher touchdown percentage (10.3%) than the Redskins’ 7.6%, and their pass rush (five sacks) is almost non-existent.

Brady averaged 27.6 Fantasy points in his first three games, yet there is still the feeling we have really seen Brady at his most lethal. He has had only three of his 139 pass attempts dropped, and his modest numbers only enhance the belief that some poor secondary is going to 370 yards and five TDs dropped on them sooner or later. Bet on the sooner. Air raid sirens on the Atlantic seaboard go off this Sunday at 12:59 PM Eastern.

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Week 3 DFS QB Picks – GPP Passers

1) Deshaun Watson, HOU vs. ATL

DK ($6,700), FD ($8,000)

You seriously have to worry about Watson’s durability. He’s been sacked 18 times, putting him on pace for 72. Fortunately for Watson, he’s facing a Falcons defense that has recorded just five sacks and has allowed 1.8 TD passes per game. His three rushing touchdowns bolsters his GPP standing, but Houston’s inconsistent play makes Watson too much of a risk to consider him as a Cash Game player. The Falcons may not get to the passer with frequency, but they are ninth in fewest passing yards allowed.

2) Patrick Mahomes, KC vs. IND (Sunday night)

DK ($7,500), FD ($9,200)

He will be grossly overused, but the Colts are 28th in Fantasy points allowed per game to opposing passers. The 2.3 TD passes per game given up by Indy is amplified since Mahomes didn’t throw one in the win against the Lions. I’d look for him to bounce back with a monster effort with the national spotlight on him.

2) Dak Prescott, DAL vs. GB

DK ($6,000), FD ($8,200)

Prescott has thrown six touchdown passes and averages 249 yards against the Packers in two previous appearances. He’s been sacked just three times this season, and he’s due a strong rebound after averaging a paltry 6.76 yards per attempt in Sunday’s loss to the Saints. His Y/A and adjusted yards per attempt have dipped with each game, making you wonder how long it will be before it becomes Ezekiel Elliott’s offense once and for all. Green Bay is also fourth in net yards per attempt, lending further reason to keep him as a GPP.

3) Aaron Rodgers, GB at DAL

DK ($6,000), FD ($7,800)

Counting the postseason, Rodgers has thrown at least two touchdown passes in five of his last six games against the Cowboys. Green Bay is 26th in rushing yardage and 27th in average per carry, making this a game where Rodgers goes north of 30-35 passes. A healthy Davante Adams will make him a strong GPP option. Adams is fifth among receivers with 150 yards after the catch and gives the Packers the needed stretch threat to compensate for their struggles on the ground.

4) Carson Wentz, PHI vs. NYJ

DK ($6,100), FD ($7,800)

Wentz has delivered at least 25 Fantasy points and multiple touchdown passes in three of his first four games. The Jets are sixth overall in run defense and have allowed just four touchdown passes, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Wentz puts up numbers similar to last Thursday’s win over the Packers: multiple scoring strikes despite modest yardage totals. Depending on the health of DeSean Jackson, my projections for Wentz could change since the Jets lack the offense to trade shots with the Eagles.

5) Matt Ryan, ATL at HOU

DK ($5,900), FD ($7,700)

Good Number: Ryan leads the league with 777 air yards and is fifth in pass yards after the catch (548).

Bad Number: Interceptions remain an issue, and the Texans’ pass rush will help them improve on the one interception they have recorded this season.

6) Russell Wilson, SEA vs. LAR (Thursday night)

DK ($6,200), FD ($7,600)

Good Number: Third in air yards, Wilson is also averaging 32 Fantasy points per game at home.

Bad Number: Good things rarely happen when Wilson has a bad throw. His 13.5% completion rate on bad throws is 18th overall.

7) Jacoby Brissett, IND at KC

DK ($5,300), FD ($7,300)

Good Number: Fantasy point totals have gone from 19 to 21 to 24 to 27. A 30-point is likely considering the Chiefs are 27th in Fantasy points per game allowed to opposing tight ends, and we all know how Brissett likes his tight ends.

Bad Number: Only four other quarterbacks have a worse air yards per pass attempt than Brissett’s 3.1.

8) Lamar Jackson, BAL at PIT

DK ($7,100), FD ($8,300)

Good Number: Entering Week 5, Jackson is one of only four quarterbacks with average depth of target of more than 10 yards (10.2).

Bad Number: Of his 134 attempts, 22 have been labeled as bad passes. Sunday was a reminder of how raw of a passer Jackson still is.

9) Philip Rivers, LAC vs. DEN

DK ($5,800), FD ($7,700)

Good Number: Having a dangerous threat like Austin Ekeler has helped Rivers produce 596 passing yards after the catch, the third-best total in the league.

Bad Number: It would help if Rivers’ receiving corps had better hands. He’s tied for fifth with six drops.

10) Baker Mayfield, CLE at SF (Monday night)

DK ($5,800), FD ($7,500)

Good Number: Guess who’s right above Rivers in passing yards after the catch? This guy (597).

Bad Number: Guess who’s tied with Rivers with six passes dropped? Yup. This guy.

Week 5 DFS QB Picks – Value and Punt Passers

1) Kirk Cousins, MIN at NYG

DK ($5,300), FD ($6,800)

Cousins’ stock is low, and he’ll have few users against a Giants defense allowing 295 yards and 2.3 TD passes per game. He’s 24th in yards after the catch (370), which is 43 more yards than what Giants pivot Daniel Jones has produced in two games.

2) Jared Goff, LAR at SEA (Thursday night)

DK ($5,300), FD ($6,800)

The 517 yards were impressive, but Goff is still only getting 5.1 yards after catch per completion. Seattle is middle of the pack in Fantasy points allowed, yet could take advantage of Goff’s excessive passing due in part to a running game ranked 22nd overall. A 300-yard game is possible, but it will be one pockmarked with sacks and interceptions.

3) Kyle Allen, CAR vs. JAC

DK ($5,100), FD ($6,500)

Even with Jalen Ramsey available, I’d consider Allen a good punt option here. The Jaguars are 10th in passing yards allowed and have only one interception in 141 attempts against them. J-ville is 27th in yards gained per pass completion, and Christian McCaffrey allows Allen to stretch this overrated secondary.

4) Kyler Murray, ARI at CIN

DK ($6,300), FD ($7,400)

Sweet Jeebers, young man! Can we work on that 3.1 air yards per attempt, please? Murray has a chance to get fat, full and happy at the expense of a Bengals defense that is 29th in yards per completion at 13.6.

5) Mason Rudolph, PIT vs. BAL

DK ($5,100), FD ($6,500)

The Ravens have the highest yards per completion (14.4) and are 29th in passing yards per game. Rudolph looked more comfortable in the pocket on Monday night and should be able to get his receiving corps a splash play or two. He is a sneaky good play among the Week 5 DFS QB Picks.

6) Daniel Jones, NYG vs. MIN

DK ($5,600), FD ($7,000)

He’ll give you around 35 attempts, and the promising outing from Wayne Gallman helps take pressure off Jones. However, the Vikings allow just 5.5 yards per catch, making Jones more of a 2-QB bet than a stand-alone starter.

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5 years ago 0 comment

NFL

Week 2 DFS QB Picks: Cash, GPP and Value Targets

5 years ago

written by

Now that we’ve gotten our first taste of the 2019 season, it’s here we begin to make sense of what we saw. The Week 2 DFS QB Picks will focus mostly on the main slate of Sunday games, but the Thursday, Sunday and Monday nighters will get love.

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Week 2 DFS QB Picks – Cash Game Passers

1) Tom Brady, NE at MIA

DK ($6,400), FD ($7,800)

Oh, stop. You knew this was coming. Even if Antonio Brown didn’t play, Brady was going to be a lock here. The Dolphins allowed a combined 55.08 Fantasy points to Ravens QBs on Sunday, and Brady’s track record versus Miami is hilariously tilted in his favor.

In his last six matchups against the Dolphins, Brady has thrown at least three touchdowns five times, including five in the two games he faced them in 2018, where he finished with a combined 632 passing yards. Brady has tossed for at least 227 yards in each of his last 10 games against Miami, finishing with at least 274 yards six times. At this point, you don’t need Next Generation stats to be convinced what to do here.

2) Deshaun Watson HOU vs. JAX

DK ($6,600), FD ($8,500)

It’s safe to say the words “Houston Texans” and “effective run game” won’t be said in the same sentence in 2019. That means Watson will make regular appearances in this section, so long as he remains upright. Despite being sacked six times on Monday, Watson still put up 31 Fantasy points, placing him behind only Lamar Jackson (33.6) and Dak Prescott (33.4). The woeful Texans’ O-line assures that Watson will finish with 6-8 rushing TDs this season, again so long as he remains upright.

Jacksonville was 27th in Fantasy points allowed to opposing passers in Week 1 as Patrick Mahomes tagged them for 378 yards and three touchdowns without Tyreek Hill most of the afternoon. The Jaguars were 26th in receivers points allowed and will see plenty of DeAndre Hopkins, who averages 11.1 targets per game against them. Although Watson has a modest 79.7 passer rating in three previous games against the Jags, Sunday shapes up to be a personal best for Watson against an overrated unit.

3) Patrick Mahomes, KC at OAK

DK ($7,500), FD ($9,000)

He’s playing, so no worries about his sprained ankle. If he can flirt with 400 yards gimping along, it’s all good. Mahomes averaged 283 yards and three touchdowns in his two games against the Raiders last season, and I feel he’ll be just fine without Hill in the lineup.

My only concern with Mahomes is that once Hill exited the game, Sammy Watkins was the only wide receiver he targeted. While that makes Watkins a high-end WR1, a mild sense of uneasiness permeates. However, the bet is that A) the Chiefs will likely sign a veteran receiver this week and 2) whoever is opposite Hill will be grossly underrated. Oakland is a solid 11th in Fantasy points allowed to opposing passers after Week 1, but Joe Flacco isn’t Patrick Mahomes.

4) Drew Brees, NO at LAR

DK ($6,200), FD ($8,000)

Part of me feels like I have underrated Brees here. His track record against the Rams is 269 yards and two touchdowns per game. In his last four regular season tilts against the Rams, he has averaged 323.7 yards and 2.5 TDs per game.

Brees will do a good job of diversifying the passing game. Of his attempts on Monday night, 22 went to wide receivers, 11 went to running backs and four went to tight ends (quarterback Taysom Hill had two targets). The big play element is already there, as Brees connected on four completions of at least 20 yards. New Orleans had a combined seven big plays and will present a more dangerous offense than the Rams — who allowed just one big play against the Panthers — saw in Week 1.

5) Carson Wentz, PHI vs. ATL

DK ($5,700), FD ($7,700)

Wentz plays on Sunday night, so if you’re playing a full slate, keep in mind that he accounted for 219 air yards against the Redskins, accounting for 69.9% of his 313 passing yards. He was 21st in that category in 2018, but he didn’t have DeSean Jackson then, did he…

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Week 2 DFS QB Picks – GPP Passers

1) Russell Wilson, SEA at PIT

DK ($6,200), FD ($7,600)

The one number to keep in mind with Wilson is that his receivers averaged 6.9 yards after the catch in Week 1. That’s two yards better than last year’s average. The Steelers allowed Pats wideouts to amass 273 receiving yards on just 14 completions (19.5 yards per catch) on Sunday night. I’d strongly consider Wilson as a Week 2 DFS QB Pick, but he falls just short of Cash Game status.

2) Lamar Jackson, BAL vs. ARI

DK ($6,700), FD ($8,200)

Let’s not proclaim him the Second Coming just yet, but Jackson sure as hell disproved a lot of his detractors on Sunday. The Cardinals will provide stiffer competition, but Jackson’s 10.3 air yards per pass completion and the zeroes in the categories of bad throws and danger passes are all encouraging signs. Even better is that he didn’t run much, which means that if Jackson is becoming a consistent passer, he will have a couple of games where he’ll combine his running skills into one hell of a Fantasy day.

3) Philip Rivers, LAC at DET

DK ($6,100), FD ($7,700)

The potential long-term impact of Mike Williams’ injury is currently in question and I don’t suspect Austin Ekeler will rack up 39.4 Fantasy points again, but we know Rivers will throw and do so effectively, as he completed 73.5% of his passes in Week 1. Rivers only had 147 air yards on Sunday, a number that translates into trouble for a Lions secondary that allowed 233 receiving yards to the Cardinals.

4) Aaron Rodgers, GB vs. MIN

DK ($6,500), FD ($8,000)

Forget all we saw on Thursday night. You’ll be better for it. Rodgers won’t finish 23rd among all quarterbacks again. The Vikings did give up 304 yards to Matt Ryan and will have to contend with a more productive Packers passing game that averaged 10.3 yards per target. That tells me Rodgers will be more aggressive on Sunday and will be somewhat undervalued considering he’s facing a solid Minnesota defense.

5) Ben Roethlisberger, PIT vs. SEA

DK ($7,600), FD ($8,500)

Speaking of rebound candidates, Roethlisberger will be under the radar and does bring a good track record against the Seahawks, averaging 25 completions and 320 yards in three previous matchups. If you’re looking for sunshine in his pitch black outing against the Pats, his receivers did not drop a pass, nor did he record a bad throw. Seattle made Andy Dalton look like a must-start passer in Week 1, and it’s almost a given that Big Ben is a far superior Fantasy performer at home. He’s worth the second look

6) Dak Prescott, DAL at WAS

DK ($6,300), FD ($7,700)

Good Number: Prescott averaged 16.2 yards per completion and had seven completions of better than 20 yards.

Bad Number: Raise your hand if you think Ezekiel Elliott will have 14 touches. I’ll wait.

7) Jared Goff, LAR vs. NO

DK ($5,900), FD ($7,600)

Good Number: The Saints defense is still the Saints defense, as only the Dolphins and Giants allowed more Fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

Bad Number: A 59% completion rate and 8.1 yards per completion makes me have Super Bowl flashbacks.

8) Matt Ryan, ATL vs. PHI

DK ($6,100), FD ($7,900)

Good Number: Case Keenum produced 380 yards against the Eagles secondary. Imagine what Ryan could do if the Falcons give him time to throw.

Bad Number: Ryan has never had a season in which he averaged less than 10.4 yards per completion, so the 9.2 YPC against the Vikings is a bit of of a concern.

9) Matthew Stafford, DET vs. LAC

DK ($5,200), FD ($7,000)

Good Number: We would all take 14.3 yards per completion, which is what Stafford had against the Cardinals.

Bad Number: Don’t count on the Lions having 77 plays from scrimmage.

10) Derek Carr, OAK vs. KC

DK ($5,100), FD ($6,600)

Good Number: Carr averaged big plays at an 18.1% completion rate, a solid number considering he only attempted 26 passes.

Bad Number: Oakland’s receiver depth is concerning. Outside of Tyrell Williams, Carr targeted wideouts just seven times. That’s a number that has to improve, especially if the Chiefs are doubling Williams up.

Week 2 DFS QB Picks – Value and Punt Passers

1) Case Keenum, WAS vs. DAL

DK ($5,000), FD ($6,900)

He’s going to be a strong value play, especially if the Redskins have to play catchup. Keenum did have a nice split in targets with a 23-21 distribution to wide receivers and running backs/tight ends.

2) Andy Dalton, CIN vs. SF

DK ($5,000), FD ($6,900)

San Francisco was the top Fantasy defense against opposing quarterbacks. The Tyler Boyd-Richard Sherman matchup will be a huge indicator on how well Dalton will look.

3) Marcus Mariota, TEN vs. IND

DK ($5,000), FD ($7,400)

Averaged 12.4 passing yards after completion, but who in 2019 is going to trust a quarterback that completes 50% of his attempts?

4) Cam Newton, CAR vs. TB

DK ($16,500), FD ($15,000)

The better of the two plays if you’re going Showdown on Thursday night. Should find the end zone, but his 5.7 yards per target doesn’t look good, especially when investing in Panthers wide receivers.

5) Baker Mayfield, CLE at NYJ

DK ($6,400), FD ($7,500)

Prove it. He will be an interesting watch among the Week 2 DFS QB Picks.

6) Jacoby Brissett, IND at TEN

DK ($5,000), FD ($6,000)

The accuracy (77.7%) is there, but the 4.2 yards after catch per completion is going to need some work.

7) Gardner Minshew, JAX at HOU

DK ($4,800), FD ($6,400)

On price alone, Minshew should be ranked higher. The Jags get a Texans pass defense that got nothing from J.J. Watt on Monday night en route to finishing 29th in Fantasy points allowed to opposing passers.

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Russell Wilson Featured Image via Mike Morris

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