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Jake Odorizzi

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s seven-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:15PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

Weather is not a huge issue tonight (as much as it is for the day games), so let’s dive right in!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top MLB DFS Ace: Clayton Kershaw ($11,000)

Kershaw is the only top MLB DFS arm we should really consider tonight, since there’s a $2,500 drop off to the next available SP (LAA RHP Alex Cobb at $8,500 — someone we can consider as a GPP pivot). Adam Strangis explains in the 7/3 Starting Rotation article why anchoring cash game lineups to Kershaw makes a lot of sense, and we can probably use the same rationale for single-entry GPP. Kershaw’s K rate is high enough that the elevated pricing on FD isn’t a dealbreaker, and the Nationals do have some K potential in their lineup.

Best GPP Value: Jake Odorizzi ($7,200)

The Indians aren’t pushovers, but Odorizzi has been pretty effective this season with and xFIP under 4.00 and a K rate over a batter an inning. Cleveland is in the bottom half of the league in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ and they rank just 21st against the fastball — Odorizzi’s number one pitch in both effectiveness and usage. He’s a slight favorite, has averaged over 30 FD per outing over his last four starts, and his price allows us to roster basically any hitters we want in the high total games in Coors Field and/or Oakland.

Contrarian GPP Play: Alex Cobb ($8,500)

He’s a contrarian play because the price is still a little higher than we’d like to play on a slate where Odorizzi is much cheaper, but his upside is just as high. Cobb sports a 2.79 xFIP this season and the Orioles aren’t especially great at knocking around RHPs. There’s risk here, as we know this crew in Baltimore can manufacture a few runs with that potent top 4 — but if Cobb can get through that group a couple times without major incident, he’s got a great shot at eclipsing his 30 point FD projections and total of about 30 FD points. 40-45 FD points (helped by a QS and win) isn’t unrealistic,

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: St. Louis Cardinals vs. COL LHP Kyle Freeland

This lineup is filled with lefty mashers, and it’s a group that really came alive in extra innings last night — something I believe they’ll carry over into tonight’s matchup. You really can’t go wrong with Nolan Arenado ($4,400), Paul Goldschmidt ($4,300), Tyler O’Neill ($4,000 – DTD, finger) and Harrison Bader ($3,200) as your power four, with Tommy Edman ($3,700) Dylan Carlson ($3,400), Yadier Molina ($3,500) and Paul DeJong ($3,800) as your main alternates. The Rockies are all in play as well — especially Trevor Story ($4,400) , C.J. Cron ($3,900) and a cheap Yonathan Daza ($3,100 — though it will be hard to stack the entire game.

Value Stack: San Francisco Giants vs. ARI RHP Jacob Faria

The Giants were my value stack last night against the A’s, and while they did score 6 runs, they didn’t break the slate. Once again, they have enormous upside tonight with these hitters against “Journeyman Jake” Faria and his hittable ensemble of pitches: LaMonte Wade ($2,900), Mike Yastrzemski ($3,200), Buster Posey ($3,100) Alex Dickerson ($2,500), Brandon Crawford ($3,000). There are some other bats to be considered (Steven Duggar at $2,800 and a very cheap Donovan Solano at $2,300), but I’m most interested in the above four for MLB DFS.

Contrarian Stack: Oakland Athletics vs. BOS RHP Garrett Richards

There’s a great deal of leverage in stacking this entire game and fading Coors hitters, but let’s start with the Athletics bats we like: Tony Kemp ($2,800), Matt Olson ($3,700), Jed Lowrie ($3,300) and Matt Chapman ($3,600). For Boston, the top hitters are J.D. Martinez ($4,200), Kike Hernandez ($3,600), Xander Bogaerts ($3,700) and Hunter Renfroe ($3,500). Again — both sides are fine here, but the Athletics will be severely under-owned against a bad RHP, and that’s a spot I really like considering their above-average 104 wRC+ and .317 wOBA. The Sox do well against LHP (.331 wOBA, 105 wRC+), but they’re priced a little higher.

Good luck tonight, and make sure you utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

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The highlight of the 9/18 DFS Pitching Picks could be dimmed by a nasty, blustery lady named Imelda.

The Tropical Depression Formerly Known as Tropical Storm Imelda is expected to hammer the Houston area with high winds and up to 12 inches of rain between now and Thursday. While it’s highly unlikely the weather will be a factor in Gerrit Cole’s bid for 300 strikeouts, let’s not leave everything to chance.

Cole is the best play of Wednesday’s main slate. There are five games scheduled for the afternoon, where Max Scherzer and Noah Syndergaard are each pitching. The daytime even features Marlins hurler Sandy Alcantara, who’s made for a great GPP option over his past five starts.

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9/18 DFS Pitching Picks – Cash Game Pitcher

Gerrit Cole, HOU vs. TEX

DK ($12,800), FD ($12,100) 

Cole has six straight games of at least 10 strikeouts, so it’s not a question of if, but how long into the night before Cole reaches 300 Ks, making him only the third pitcher in franchise history to do so. He’s delivered at least 30 DraftKings points in each of his last six starts; FanDuel users have seen Cole record at least 30 points in 14 straight outings.

Currently sitting at a 39.4% strikeout rate, Cole will have at least two more starts to get as close as possible to 40%. He’s fanned 20 Royals over 14.1 innings this season, including 11 in last Friday’s win. Over the past month, Cole has struck out a staggering 55.6% of the batters he’s faced, with his slider one of the driving forces behind the run. It’s been an increase of using his slider that has helped explode his strikeout rate to heights we didn’t think we’d see after Cole struck out over 36% in 2018.

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9/18 DFS Pitching Picks – GPP Pitchers

Jake Odorizzi, MIN vs. CWS

DK ($10,600), FD ($9,300) 

The Ks have come aplenty for Odorizzi when facing the White Sox, having fanned 23 over 16.1 innings. He’s a solid 9/18 DFS Pitching Picks play in GPP formats, especially when you consider he’s yet to allow a homer to Pale Hose bats this season.

Odorizzi has an 0.98 HR/9 rate despite allowing a hard contact rate of 42.3% and a 44.3% fly ball rate. How the hell he’s pulled such a low HR/9 in this of all seasons is beyond me. The reduction in BB/9 from 3.83 from last season to 3.12 this year has helped carry him to two starts of at least 40 FanDuel points in his last three starts.

Aaron Civale, CLE vs. DET

DK ($9,100), FD ($8,500) 

Civale has yet to allow more than two earned runs and gets a gem of a start against a Tigers team that is averaging less than four runs per game over the past week. Detroit is hitting a composite .234/.285/.363 versus average fly ball/ground ball pitchers like Civale, who has allowed just two homers in 46.2 innings of work.

I like Civale in FanDuel, as he has put up at least 30 points in five of his eight starts. You’ll also like him more considering he’s delivered a 1.06 ERA with 17 strikeouts over 17 innings when pitching at Progressive Field. At this late in the season, chances are good Civale should be able to keep his BABIP around his current .267. With a thin main slate, Civale’s a solid 9/18 DFS Pitching Picks option.

Adrian Houser, MIL vs. SD

DK ($5,300), FD ($6,500) 

Bah Gawd! Houser is cheap. He also falls into a wonderful matchup against a Padres offense that has hit a combined .205/.330/.373 in their past seven games. San Diego’s batters are averaging nearly 11 strikeouts in the same span, which plays well with Houser’s 9.52 K/9 rate. You can live with Houser’s 1.19 HR/9 even against the all-or-nothing Padres bats that have produced a .373 slugging percentage and .652 OPS over the past two weeks.

If he’s not whiffing batters, Houser’s 53.4% ground ball rate will keep his infielders busy. He has a pretty low 24.8% fly ball rate and does also project to flirt with 30 points at FanDuel. I’d run with Houser and load up on offense.

9/18 DFS Pitching Picks – Punt Pick

Tony Gonsolin, LAD vs. TB

DK ($8,700), FD ($6,600) 

Gonsolin holds a .219 BABIP and continues to be a reasonable choice in GPP or Punt plays. That trend should maintain itself despite a 47% hard contact rate against and a 43.9% fly ball rate. Those trends will sooner or later walk him down.

Don’t expect the Rays to get too many line drives off of him, as Gonsolin allows just a 13.3% line drive rate. He’s obviously a better pitcher at home (.120 batting average allowed, 1.20 ERA), so while he’s not going to go too deep in games, Gonsolin should do just enough to make him a worthy punt.

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After poring over this 9/7 MLB DFS slate it seems to me as though we have one of them nights with several pitchers in great matchups, which for DFS purposes is like finding a needle in a haystack. So, with a whole day of baseball action ahead of us, and some tricky pricing, I bring you today’s pitching picks.

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On the Defense

JustinVerlander vs. Seattle Mariners

$12,500 FD / $12,400 DK

Justin Verlander usually comes at a high salary, and this9/7 MLB DFS slate is no different. So, unless you have access to a DFS paymentplan for salaries he is going to be tough to fit in tonight, especially on DK. Regardless,he is facing a Mariners team striking out 24.8 percent of the time versus RHPs.That last time Verlander faced the Mariners he had 10 strikeouts over sixinnings while only allowing one earned run. This is without a doubt the safestplay on the slate, and the most difficult to use.

JakeOdorizzi vs. Cleveland Indians

$8,900 FD / $10,200 DK

With Andrew Heaney only being $900 less on DK than Odorizzihe shines as the clear cut second SP1 option on this 9/7 MLB DFS slate. Despitethe tribe fairing well this season versus RHPs carrying a .329 wOBA, they stillwhiff more than 20 percent of the time. With Jake from State Farm posting a1.06 ERA with 19 strikeouts over 17 innings this season versus the Indians, Iam all in here tonight.

Tony Gonsolinvs. San Francisco Giants

$6,400 FD / $8,600 DK

Two things are self-evident on this 9/7 MLB DFS slate, TonyGonsolin is the first guy since Tom Selleck to make the moustache look goodagain, and his price on FD is extremely low facing a Giants team with a wRC+ of58 over the last seven days. Over his last 24 innings pitched spanning fivestarts, moustache Tony has only allowed five earned runs while striking out 19batters. This includes a start in Colorado. On DK tonight, with no Coors Fieldgame on the slate, I would try and find a way to pair him with Odorizzi leavingyou with $3,900 per player to start with.

AustinVoth vs. Atlanta Braves

$7,000 FD / $7,200 DK

Here is where we enter the high-risk portion of this 9/7 MLBDFS pitching article. Although the Braves are striking out 23.3 percent of thetime versus RHPs, they also post .328 wOBA which is 11th in MLB. Theamount of innings Voth will pitch tonight is my biggest concern as he has onlypitched more than five innings twice in his first five starts. Luckily for usone was versus this Braves team where he struck out seven batters over sixinnings while only allowing two earned runs. I will be using hm tonight as mySP2 in GPP play.

JeffHoffman vs. San Diego Padres

$5,500 FD / $5,100 DK

Talk about a boom-or-bust GPP play on this 9/7 MLB DFS slate. Hoffman is facing a Padres team tonight striking out 26.5 percent of the time versus RHPs, with a low .298 wOBA. In his last state facing the Padres in Colorado Hoffman went five innings allowing one earned run with only two strikeouts. With an extreme park shift tonight in San Diego I am totally going to take a shot here and bat load a lineup or two.

NameTeamWLSVGIPK/9BB/9HR/9BABIPGB%HR/FBERAFIPxFIP
Justin VerlanderAstros17502919311.981.631.540.20234.60%16.10%2.563.413.31
Jake OdorizziTwins1460271429.633.111.010.29635.10%9.60%3.613.664.54
Austin VothNationals1005239.392.351.170.29540.60%11.10%3.9144.64
Tony GonsolinDodgers2116287.071.930.960.22245.10%8.80%2.893.684.71
Jeff HoffmanRockies1501045.19.133.772.580.34635.30%22.00%7.356.35.17

On the Attack

TylerBeede vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

After a tough loss last night in this historic rivalry, theDodger bats are going to come out swinging tonight. Beede has allowed four ormore earned runs in in five of his last eight starts, never surrendering lessthan three.  With the Dodgers onlystriking out 20.9 percent of the time versus RHPs (26th in MLB), anda .342 wOBA, Beede is going to get walloped.

Notable Bats

Cody Bellinger absolutely mashes opposing pitchersand is batting .316 over the last seven with two home runs.

Joc Pederson is batting .727 with five home runs andnine RBI over the last seven days while posting a wOBA of .379 versus RHPs.

Matt Beaty has been in a bit of slump as of late, batting .167 with one home run over the last seven days but comes at a reduced price and currently has a .372 wOBA versus RHPs.

Yusei Kikuchi vs. Houston Astros

In Kikuchi’s last two starts versus the Astros he has allowed nine earned runs over nine innings. With Houston coming in 1st in MLB offensively versus LHPs posting a killer wRC+ of 138, which is a full 12 points higher than the Twins coming in at 2nd, all bats are in play here.

Notable Bats

Jose Altuve has an incredible .486 wOBA versus LHPs,with a wRC+ of 215. He is a top play any night versus lefties.

Alex Bregman is batting .435 with a home run and sevenRBI over his last seven games while posting a .436 wOBA versus LHPs thisseason.

Robinson Chirinos comes in at a value most nights inan expensive Houston lineup. He also has a .400 wOBA versus LHPs with a wRC+ of157. Easily my top catcher play of the night.

DylanCovey vs. Los Angeles Angels

How about a pitcher who has allowed eight earned runs overhis last 4 2/3 innings, including a start versus the Tigers? Yup, here he is.With a whole lot of action heading towards the Astros and Dodgers offensetonight, the Angels should provide some value facing a scrub like Covey.

Notable Bats (besides Mike Trout)

Brian Goodwin may not be a flashy name but he doeshave a wOBA of .356 versus RHPs. He is also batting .333 with a home run andseven RBI over the last seven days while finding himself in the lineup on aregular basis as of late.

Kole Calhoun is another player that also comes in at a nice salary most nights and as a bonus has a home run off Covey in a small sample size. He also has gone nine straight games without putting one in the seats, which I see changing tonight in the cleanup spot.

Name Team W L SV G IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP GB% HR/FB ERA FIP
Tyler Beede Giants 3 9 0 20 96.1 8.5 3.74 1.87 0.325 44.10% 19.40% 5.61 5.42
Yusei Kikuchi Mariners 6 9 0 28 144.1 6.55 2.87 2.06 0.298 45.40% 19.50% 5.36 5.79
Dylan Covey White Sox 1 7 0 16 52.1 6.02 3.96 1.89 0.291 41.60% 18.60% 6.88 6.1

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Monkey Knife Fight Prop Pick

With Beede in a tough start tonight in Los Angeles, and Bellinger having the ability on a nightly basis to draw walks, and mash baseballs, I am going with the over here.

Although Posey’s splits favor RHPs, he has yet to face mustache Tony, which often leads to an 0-for-something.

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Here we are, it’s Labor Day. While most of you were still sleeping, I was sitting here spinning records, and poring over the 9/2 MLB DFS Pitching Picks. One of the things I love about having a Monday holiday is a bevy of MLB games to watch.

On this 9/2 MLB DFS slate we are starting a new format, besides giving you my top pitching picks to play, I will also be giving you some top pitching picks to attack. This all part of our continuing effort to bring you the highest quality analysis in the industry. Speaking of quality analysis, if you did not already know we now have a show on Sirius XM Fantasy Sports Radio on Saturday nights from 11 pm to 1 am EST. Make sure you tune in. So, without further delay, I bring you today’s top plays.

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On theDefense

JakeOdorizzi vs. Detroit Tigers

$9,700 FD / $10,500 DK

The Detroit Tigers are a prime team to attack on any given day, and this 9/2 MLB DFS slate is no different. They are striking out 27.3 percent of the time (1st in MLB) with a .292 wOBA versus RHPs this season. Meanwhile, Odorizzi has been steady mobbin’ to the tune of RHBs, hitting a whopping .187 off him this season. With the Tigers being extremely right-handed heavy, Jake not from State Farm should dominant this Little League lineup today.

NoahSyndergaard vs Washington Nationals

$9,000 FD / $10,000 DK

In GPP play on this 9/2 MLB DFS slate, even facing a teamthat mashes RHPs like the Nationals, I would seriously consider using Thor. Eventhough the Nats have ugly numbers versus opposing pitchers this season, they donot versus Syndergaard. Over three starts versus Washington this season Thorhas 18 strikeouts over 21 innings with eight earned runs, four of them comingin his first start back in late March. With Syndergaard having a road ERA of 3.49versus his 4.73 ERA at home, everything appears to be a go for him today.

MasahiroTanaka vs. Texas Rangers

$8,000 FD / $8,100 DK

Tanaka, much like Julio Teheran of years past, is much more dominant at home. So far this season he is posting a 3.26 home ERA as opposed to his 5.93 ERA on the road. The Rangers are striking out 24.2 percent of the time versus RHPs with a low wRC+ of 86, while batting a pathetic .202 over the last seven. Despite Masahiro’s ups and downs as of late, in his last start facing Seattle he sent seven to the dugout mad while pitching a seven-inning shutout. On this 9/2 MLB DFS slate Tanaka is one of my favorite plays for the price.

Joe Rossvs. New York Mets

$6.800 FD / $6,600 DK

For the record on this 9/2 MLB DFS slate I prefer this play a lot more on DK over FD. Although the price is still nice on FD, I think the value is better served in the SP2 slot on DK. The Mets can be very dangerous to attack in MLB DFS versus RHPs, they are in the middle of the pack striking out 20 percent of the time with a .319 wOBA. But Ross has looked too good as of late to pass up here. Over his last five starts spanning a little more than 25 innings, he has only allowed three earned runs while striking out 16 batters. My biggest concern is innings here, as he does have a few starts in that span where he failed to reach the five-inning mark.

On theAttack

Drew Smylyvs. Cincinnati Reds

For fantasy owners Drew Smyly has done anything but make you smile. Over his last five starts he has allowed 20 earned runs over his last 26 innings, making the Reds a prime stack on this 9/2 MLB DFS slate. Cincinnati has some powerful RHBs, and is posting a .328 wOBA versus LHPs, Smyly is in serious trouble today in the Great American Small Park.

Notable Bats

Aristides Aquino has a .578 wOBA and 261 wRC+ versusLHPs with four straight games without a HR.

Phillip Ervin has .488 wOBA and 202 wRC+ versus LHPswhile batting .333 with two home runs over the last seven days. He also hasfound his way into the three spot.

Eugenio Suarez has .423 wOBA and 160 wRC+ versus LHPs and has seven home runs over his last nine games. He did leave yesterday’s second game of the doubleheader with a hand injury so keep your eyes peeled here.

JordanZimmerman vs. Minnesota Twins

The McRib, Roller skates, and Sandy Koufax are three thingsthat all had to come to an end. Much like Jordan Zimmerman’s good starts as oflate. Although he has three starts in a row allowing two earned runs or less,the last time he faced Minnesota they bombed him for five runs over threeinnings sending the Zim home in dismay. I see serious regression here today andwill stack against this geriatric pitcher on this 9/2 MLB DFS slate facing a Twinsteam posting a .345 wOBA versus RHPs.

Notable Bats

Nelson Cruz is crushing everyone and RHPs are notdifferent. He is posting .411 wOBA and wRC+ of 158 versus RHPs this season.

Mitch Garver currently has a .396 wOBA versus RHPs with a wRC+ of 147. Over the last seven days he is also batting .455 with three home runs.

Luis Arraez, if he gets the start today, which I believe he will, has a .374 wOBA versus RHPs with a complimentary 133 wRC+.  With bigger bats, and $4,000 price tag on DK, you can get him at a low ownership today for sure.

Mike Minorvs. New York Yankees

The New York Yankees hit home runs like I eat Beyond Burgers, pretty much every day. I know this, does Mike Minor? If not, he will soon enough. The Yankees are crushing lefties to the tune of .360 wOBA this season with a wRC+ of 121, both which are 4th in MLB. The magic number is 55, remember that number on this 9/2 MLB DFS slate, it is how many dingers the Yanks have launched this season versus lefties. With Minor allowing 10 earned runs in his last 12 1/3 innings, I suspect the number will be much higher tomorrow. Keep in mind that Minor has reverse splits, so do not be afraid to go lefty on lefty here in GPPs.

Notable Bats

D.J. LeMahieu is posting .476 wOBA and 202 wRC+ versus LHPs this season. Despite the horrible BVP versus Minor I would still rank him at the top batting .400 with two home runs over the last seven days.

Aaron Judge has returned to pass judgement with his .470 wOBA versus LHPs. He is batting .375 with three home runs over the last seven days and I fully see him putting one out today.

Luke Voit has posted a .354 wOBA this season along with a wRC+ of 120 versus LHPs. I like the pricing for him on both sites today and will have a lot of exposure to him. If Mike Ford somehow draws the start, that will certainly be my pivot.

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Monkey Knife Fight Prop Pick

With the Tigers striking out 27.2 percent of the time versus RHPs, and Odorizzi striking out six batters or more in four out of his last five starts the over here seems to easy.

Zimmerman more-than-likely will not see enough innings after the Twins bats get a hold of him today, so the under here is where I am looking.

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I always look forward to writing these pitching articles and we have yet another fascinating slate here. While a lot of these pitchers are guys I haven’t used much this season, there are still some great options out there. With that in mind, let’s get into our 8/16 DFS Pitching Picks. 

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8/16 DFS Pitching Cash Game Plays 

Luis Castillo, CIN vs. STL 

DK ($10,800)   FD ($11,100) 

I really haven’t written up Castillo a whole lot this season and that’s probably a mistake on my part. We’re talking about a complete breakout, with the Reds righty pitching to a 2.69 ERA and 1.11 WHIP this season while striking out 172 batters. That equates to an incredible 29.5 percent K rate, which is no surprise when you look at his 3.57 career xFIP.  

That’s why his price has risen so much and it’s amazing just how consistent he’s been. Castillo has at least 30 FD points in 20 of his 24 starts this season. The icing on the cake is this matchup though, with the Cardinals establishing themselves as one of the worst offenses in the league. In fact, St. Louis sits 25th in runs scored, 24th in OPS, 22nd in OBP and 25th in wOBA. That’s why Castillo and the Reds enter this matchup as a –160 favorite.   

Charlie Morton, TB vs. DET 

DK ($11,600)   FD ($11,300) 

Morton is easily my favorite play on the board. This dude has been downright special the last two seasons and it’s a wonder why more people aren’t taking notice. Dating back to last season, Morton is providing a 3.02 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 30 percent K rate. That’s backed up by a 3.33 xFIP and it’s amazing just how much this guy has improved.  

Much like Castillo, Morton is extremely reliable too. In 25 starts this season, the Tampa Bay righty has reached at least 33 FanDuel points in 21 of those fixtures. That appears to be the floor in a matchup like this, with the Motor City Kitties ranked bottom-three in runs scored, OBP, OPS, xwOBA and K rate. That’s truly frightening in a pitcher’s park like Tropicana Field and it’s main reason why Morton and the Rays enter this matchup as a –320 favorite.  

Noah Syndergaard, NYM at KC 

DK ($10,100)   FD ($9,800) 

Syndergaard has been slightly disappointing for season-long fantasy owners but his recent form shows just how much talent this dude possesses. Over his last six starts, Syndergaard is pitching to a 1.91 ERA and 1.04 WHIP while striking out 44 batters across 42.1 innings of action. He also went at least seven innings in all six of those starts, which is unheard of in today’s MLB. That’s the guy that we’ve been expecting, as his 2.85 FIP and 26.3 percent career K rate for show the sort of potential he has. All of that pairs beautifully with this matchup, with the Royals ranked 26th in runs scored, 25th in OBP, 26th in OPS, 23rd in wOBA and 22nd in xwOBA. All of these factors have him entering this matchup as a –190 favorite.  

8/16 DFS Pitching GPP Plays 

Vince Velasquez, PHI vs. SD 

DK ($7,200)   FD ($7,200) 

Velasquez has been stellar the last month or so and it’s not indicative in his price. Over his last 49 innings pitched, Velasquez is generating a 4.04 ERA, 3.50 xFIP, 1.12 WHIP and 9.7 K/9 rate. That’s the stud we’ve been waiting for and it’s really encouraging to see him pitching so well. This guy has always shown that sort of capability, with Velasquez posting a 4.19 xFIP. 4.04 SIERA and 25.4 percent K rate for his career.  

What makes him an enticing option here is this matchup, with the Padres ranked 23rd in runs scored, 23rd in OBP, 22nd in OPS, 27th in K rate and 28th in xwOBA. What makes that even scarier is the fact that they’re missing Fernando Tatis Jr and are throwing out a bunch of righties against Velasquez. For his career, VV has a .320 wOBA and 27 percent K rate against right-handed batters.     

Kyle Hendricks, CHC at PIT 

DK ($8,200)   FD ($7,800) 

Hendricks is coming off one of his worst starts of the year but that has lowered his price enough to entice me. We’re still talking about a guy with a 3.48 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 114:27 K:BB rate facing one of the worst offenses in the league. Prior to that ugly start against a scorching-hot Reds offense, Hendricks pitched to a 2.35 ERA and 0.97 WHIP over his previous seven appearances. All of that makes him tough to fade against a Pirates offense that ranks 20th in runs scored, 20th in wOBA and 19th in xwOBA.  

Jake Odorizzi, MIN at TEX 

DK ($9,200)   FD ($8,800) 

This is very risky when you look at Texas’ team total but there’s a lot to like here about Odorizzi. Let’s start with the Twins pitcher, as he’s in the midst of a breakout year. A 3.44 ERA and 1.22 WHIP speaks for itself but his 25.3 percent K rate is also the best mark of his career. That impressive strikeout stuff becomes very attractive against an offense like this, with the Rangers owning the worst K rate in the Majors. In addition, the Rangers also rank 19th in OBP and they simply haven’t been the same offense since Joey Gallo went down.

Monkey Knife Fight Pick of the Day 

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Kyle Hendricks Over 4.5 Strikeouts

We had an ugly 0-2 outing in our last article, so its time to rebound with this pick. This happens to be pitching and I’m actually hitting over 70 percent with these strikeout props. While Pittsburgh is pretty good in terms of strikeouts, their weak offense should allow Hendricks to pitch into the sixth inning. As long as he does that, he will likley reach five Ks with his 21 percent K rate and good peripherals.

MKF Record 26-18

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On this 7/30 MLB DFS Pitching slate, we have a guy who may get traded before he gets a chance to start and two unreliable SPs who may show off their better form because of matchups.

Noah Syndergaard @ Chicago White Sox

DraftKings – $10,300, FanDuel – $10,600

After a very rough start to the season Syndergaard seems to have turned a corner. Since the All Star break, Syndergaard has posted a 2.57 ERA and a 10.71 K/9. We all know the deal with the White Sox and how much they strike out and I’m all over Syndergaard here as a 7/30 MLB DFS Pitching pick. With trade rumors swirling around, there’s a chance we don’t see him even pitch in this one. If by some chance he gets traded or they decide to hold him out for this one, I will endorse Marcus Stroman, who may pick up the start, just as much as Syndergaard.

Jake Odorizzi @ Miami Marlins

DraftKings – $9,400, FanDuel – $7,300

Odorizzi got off to a very unexpected first half, but since then he has struggled. Post All star Break he has posted a 8.16 ERA and only a 7.53 K/9. So why should we play him? Odorizzi is traveling to Miami, an insanely pitcher friendly park. The only trouble he has gotten into this season is against left handed bats (.292 BAA), he has handled right handed bats very well (.178 BAA). Miami leans very right handed heavy and I think this is a get right spot for Odorizzi in 7/30 MLB DFS Pitching. This would be my GPP play here as we try and get off some Syndergaard chalk I’m expecting. I will say this price on Odorizzi on FanDuel is ridiculous.

Reynaldo Lopez vs New York Mets

DraftKings – $7,700, FanDuel – $9,200

The Mets are in the midst of selling, or buying, or who even knows really. This team is a mess from the owners all the way down to the players. A very underwhelming season coupling with what most expect to be, a shakeup of this team is coming. Lopez is another pitcher who has turned a corner since the break. He has a staggering 1.71 ERA and a 10.71 K/9. He has been straight up phenomenal. The Mets do strike out a good bit and the offense right now isn’t really scary outside of Conforto and Alonso. I love Lopez here as a mid priced value in 7/30 MLB DFS Pitching.

Justin Verlander @ Cleveland Indians 

DraftKings – $11,400, FanDuel- $11,500

We know what we’re getting here with Verlander, he has been dominant this season. He holds a 10.89 K/9 on the road with a 3.01 ERA. He heads to Cleveland to face an Indians squad that is getting a little hot, but is nothing Verlander can’t handle. Verlander is the top arm on the 7/30 MLB DFS Pitching slate and I expect him to perform as such.

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With a doubleheader between the Colorado Rockies and Washington Nationals, there was a 16-game slate on Wednesday July 24. All points and price values for the 7/25 MLB DFS Winners and Losers are based off DraftKings.

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7/25 MLB DFS Winners

Taylor Clarke ($5,200)

Taylor Clarke had a very good performance on the mound yesterday against the Baltimore Orioles and ended up among our 7/25 MLB DFS Winners. He went six innings and gave up two runs on four hits with seven strikeouts and did not allow a walk. Even with the success he had yesterday, fade him in his next start.

Clarke’s Outlook

This was the longest outing for Clarke since May 25. Clarke lowered his ERA on the year to 6.10 in his 12th game. He also has a .293 Batting Average Against which isn’t great. His next outing is scheduled for Tuesday night in the Bronx against the Yankees. Clarke, facing a DH and the Yankees’ powerful lineup, should obviously be passed on.

Mike Tauchman ($4,100)

Mike Tauchman continued his hot hitting in the series finale against the Minnesota Twins. He went 2-for-4 with a double, triple, a pair of RBI and a run. Tauchman is now 11-for-21 (.524) with a 1.505 OPS in his past seven games. He has been on a tear as of late and is a must-have in your lineup for 7/25 MLB DFS.

https://twitter.com/ColeyHarvey/status/1154194049932451840

Tauchman’s Outlook

Tauchman has arguably been the best Yankees hitter in the past few weeks. He is certainly proving his value with the Trade Deadline approaching and the Yankees having excess outfield depth in their system. The Yankees continue their road trip as they are in Boston for a four-game set starting tonight and will be facing Rick Porcello. The Sockman should be in your lineup tonight.

7/25 MLB DFS Losers

Jake Odorizzi ($8,600)

Jake Odorizzi was not able to stop the Yankees’ offense after an incredible performance by them the day before. He went four innings and allowed nine runs on 10 hits with a pair of walks and seven strikeouts. The Yankees and Twins have been slugging it out in their three-game series, but he had one of the weaker performances in the set. Look for Odorizzi to bounce back in his next start after becoming a 7/25 MLB DFS Loser.

Odorizzi’s Outlook

The All-Star pitcher has not been pitching well as of late, he has a 6.98 ERA in his previous eight starts. His next outing is Tuesday evening in Miami against the Marlins. The Marlins rank last in slugging percentage and OPS as a team. They do not pose a huge threat and Odorizzi should be able to bounce back with a quality start.

Alex Bregman ($4,900)

Alex Bregman failed to get on base in his four at-bats yesterday against the Oakland Athletics. He hasn’t been looking like himself at the plate in the month of July, which should make DFS players scratch their heads in confusion. Try your best to find someone else that can provide better value than Alex Bregman in his next game after he ended up a 7/25 MLB DFS Loser.

Bregman’s Outlook

Bregman has been below-average for the past month. In the last 30 games he has appeared in, Bregman is batting .250 with seven HR, 15 RBI and a 23:20 walk-to-strikeout ratio. He is a better hitter than those numbers show. The Houston Astros head to the road and play the St. Louis Cardinals starting tomorrow. They are facing Jack Flaherty, who has failed to pick up a victory since May 14. Look for Bregman to get a hit, but not provide a good enough performance to have him in your DFS lineup.

7/25 MLB DFS Injury Update

The New York Yankees placed Gary Sanchez on the 10-day IL with a sore left groin. The Yankees called up Kyle Higashioka from Triple-A to take over as the backup catcher.

Kris Bryant of the Chicago Cubs left yesterday’s game with right knee soreness. Manager Joe Maddon said he doesn’t know the severity of the injury but believes it to be a cumulative thing.

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There was a 15 game DFS slate on Tuesday July 2nd but weather only allowed 14 games to be played. Although no one put up a performance like Josh Bell’s from Monday, there were still some good outings. Salaries and points are based on DraftKings.

DFS Winners

Rafael Devers ($4,900)

The Red Sox visited the Toronto Blue Jays on Tuesday and got the win, 10-6. Devers had a big DFS outing, going 4-for-5 with two home runs. He finished with six RBI and two runs scored and scored 42 fantasy points. Devers has played really well all year and has a batting average of .329 to go with an OPS of .926. He has now hit 14 home runs and has 56 RBI. Devers has 15 hits over his last six games played. The Red Sox have two more games on the road against the Blue Jays.

Devers’ Outlook

The Toronto Blue Jays have been bad this year from a pitching standpoint. They are tied for 23rd in the league with a team ERA of 4.89. Toronto had the worst team ERA in the month of June at 5.81. TOR also allowed the highest opposing batting average in June at .289. They allow a .262 batting average to lefties. All this adds up to a plus DFS matchup for Devers and the rest of the Red Sox. Roster Devers with confidence for the remainder of the series.

Charlie Morton ($10,600)

The Rays beat the Baltimore Orioles at home on Tuesday 6-3. Morton pitched seven great innings and only gave up one earned on four four hits. He was able to strike out 12 while walking only one and giving up one solo homer. He scored 38.75 DFS points and has an ERA of 2.36 to go with a great WHIP of 1.03. His K/9 is very high at 11.1. This was a good bounce-back after taking the loss in his last outing against the Twins.

Morton’s DFS Outlook

Morton’s next projected start will come after the All Star break. He has had a great first half of the season and has shown no signs of slowing down. He has been a great DFS pitcher while racking up the strikeouts. Morton had given up only 12 earned runs in his last eight starts and will carry great momentum into the second half of the season. He should be one of the top options the rest of the way.

Yuli Gurriel ($4,100)

Gurriel and the Astros got the win in a high scoring game at Coors Field against the Rockies. They won 9-8 and Gurriel was a big reason why. He went 3-for-5 with two home runs and a double. He finished with four RBI and two runs scored. Gurriel has had a pretty good first half of the year and has a batting average of .272 to go with his OPS of .756. Gurriel has hit 10 home runs and has 41 RBI.

Gurriel’s Outlook

The Astros have one more game at Coors Field before heading home to face the Angels. Gurriel and the rest of the Astros’ offense should be in high DFS demand for the game on Wednesday. Peter Lambert has an ERA of 6.57 and a WHIP of 1.46. He has started five games and has given up seven home runs. The entire Astros’ offense will be highly owned.

Losers

Jake Odorizzi ($9,900)

The Minnesota Twins faced the Oakland Athletics Tuesday and Odorizzi was roughed up. He was only able to get through three innings and gave up five earned runs. Odorizzi allowed four hits and walked three while giving up two home runs. He was able to strike out two. Odorizzi has been a big part of the Twins’ success this year and has an ERA of 2.73 to go with his WHIP of 1.07. His K/9 is in good shape at 9.88.

Odorizzi’s Outlook

Odorizzi has one more projected start before the All-Star break and it comes on July 7th against the Texas Rangers. Texas has had one of the better offense all year and has not slowed down. They have the seventh most runs scored this year and average nearly 5.5 per game. The Twins rank number two in the league in strikeouts and K nearly 10 times per game. This should be a big upside DFS spot for Odorizzi.

Freddie Freeman ($5,100)

Freeman and the Atlanta Braves could not get anything going on Tuesday and lost 2-0. Freeman went 0-for-4 and struck out once. The Braves were only able to get four hits on Tuesday. This is a rare down DFS game for Freeman and he has a batting average of .309 to go with an OPS of .979. He has hit 22 home runs and has 65 RBI. FF is coming off a huge June in which he hit .322 with an OPS of 1.066. Freeman hit nine home runs and had 33 RBI in June as well.

Freeman’s Outlook

The Braves have two more home games against the Phillies. The Phillies pitching has been just below average this year and they have a team ERA of 4.61. They have been worse than that lately, with a team ERA of 5.63 in the month of June, 28th in the league. Freeman should bounce back against the Phillies and put up good numbers as a great MLB DFS option.

Injury Report

Tommy La Stella left Tuesday’s game after fouling a ball off his knee. He had to be helped off the field which shows this is something to watch moving forward.

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On the early slate, Chris Sale is certainly worth the $11,600 on DraftKings, and he could get his first home win this season against his former team. Sale did have a bumpy start his last time out, but he should rebound today. But you can save $1000 by going with Trevor Bauer at home against the Royals. Some DFS players may be skeptical a bit after he was hit hard by the Tigers his last time out. Bauer is definitely better on the road, but you have to like the opponent here. Bauer also pitches better in day games (1.82 ERA). Kansas City is 25th in team batting this month and on the road overall.

If you choose to play on the all day DFS slate, our CEO and DFS Pro Jason Mezrahi likes German Marquez at San Francisco for 10,000 on DK. Marquez is coming off a very strong outing against the Dodgers and he registered his first career shutout at Oracle Park earlier this season. He should also get quality run support from the Colorado lineup against Jeff Samardzija.

In one of the best matchups of the night, Mike Minor (11,000)opposes Matt Boyd (10,000). Both pitchers are worth strong DFS GPP consideration,but only one can win here and it could be a low-scoring duel that eliminatesboth as cash game plays. Boyd, however, is coming off two bumpy starts, so youcan lean to Minor here in tournaments, especially since he faces the weakerlineup.

Patrick Corbin is a top play at 10,600 at Miami in a pitcher’spark against one the most vulnerable lineups in MLB. He is the preferred DFScash game play on the night slate. Last time Corbin faced Miami in May, hedelivered a complete game shutout. Miami hitters who have faced him previouslyhave a composite .195 batting average against Corbin.

I have a strong gut feeling about Framber Valdez at a DFSprice of just 6900 at home against Pittsburgh. My gut is quite prominent, so Imay want to listen to it. I look like a lowercase letter b from the side view. Valdezhad two solid outings as a starter before getting hit hard at Yankee Stadiumlast week. He had 15 strikeouts and three earned runs in two previous startsagainst Toronto and Baltimore. I am going to use him as my second DK pitcher inDFS GPP play.

In the featured pitching matchup of the night, CharlieMorton (10,200) opposes Jake Odorizzi (9,500). I am not spending up for Morton againstthat Minnesota lineup. Odorizzi’s price is down after a pair of four-runoutings against Kansas City. That makes him a GPP DFS Play against Tampa Bay,21st in team batting in June and is fifth in Ks this month. On thenight slate I would go with Odorizzi or Minor as my DFS GPP play along with Valdezas my SP2.

Monkey Knife Fight Play of the Night

I am going big on the Pittsburgh-Houston Over/Under tonight for 19x my buy-in. Framber Valdez will easily go over 4.5 Ks. Josh Bell is hitting .176 over the last week and is better vs. RHPs, so I will take the under on 1.5 Runs plus RBI. Starling Marte is hitting .167 over the past week and .238 vs. lefties, so I will take the under on 1.5 total bases. Dario Agrazi, who is making his second start after posting a 3,87 ERA in the minors, should be a good target for the Houston hitters. The Pittsburgh bullpen is also ranked 27th. So over for me on 1.5 Hits plus Walks on Jose Altuve and 1.5 Total Bases for Alex Bregman, who starts to get back on track tonight. Our Joel Bartilotta has more on Bregman here. Follow my gut with Valdez here tonight and get 100 percent bonus!

Monkey Knife Fight
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Scott Engel and Jason Mezrahi are featured in the 6/26 MLB DFS Podcast. Listen to get caught up on who they are planning to play this afternoon and tonight. They break down all the slates and they debate on whether Yu Darvish can survive a matchup with the Braves lineup.

Should You Stack Against Vargas?

Today’s DFS Podcast is full of spirited back and forth discussions. Jason goes right in for a Phillies stack against Jason Vargas, but Scott cautions that the Mets pitcher has been performing well overall recently. On the full slate, Jason is leaning heavily towards using German Marquez. The featured matchup of the night has Charlie Morton opposing Jake Odorizzi. Do you dare use Morton against the Minnesota lineup? Is the Twins starter beginning to fade and cannot be trusted?

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