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Houston Astros

9/18 DFS Hitting Picks & Stacks: Dial O for Offense

5 years ago

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The 9/18 Hitting Picks — at least the main slate — is hampered by the fact that five of the 15 games are daytime starts. Rather than be completely single-minded, we’ll give a nudge or two to the daytime folk.

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9/18 DFS Hitting Picks — Catcher

Omar Navarez, SEA at PIT

DK ($4,200), FD ($2,800)

Navarez hit his 22nd homer of the season in Tuesday’s shutout win over the Pirates, continuing a run that has seen the lefty-swinging backstop hit .391 with three homers, six RBI and five runs scored over the past week. His .861 OPS versus right-handers sets him up well against Pirates hurler Dario Agrazal, who has a 7.08 ERA since July 26. Agrazal has allowed 12 homers in just 62.1 innings.

9/18 DFS Hitting Picks — First Baseman

Trey Mancini, BAL at TOR

DK ($4,900), FD ($3,900)

One of the few highlights of another dismal season in B-More, Mancini (who also has OF eligibility) has spent much of 2019 pounding Blue Jays pitching. Entering tonight’s game, Mancini has a .996 OPS with six homers and 19 RBI versus Toronto. His 8.9% walk rate has helped Mancini become more than just a masher. Mancini hits to all fields and sports a 25% HR/FB rate despite a surprisingly low 31.6% fly ball rate.

9/18 DFS Hitting Picks — Second Baseman

Ozzie Albies, ATL vs. PHI

DK ($4,800), FD ($3,400)

He’s put the hammer down this month. Albies has a 1.029 OPS in September with four homers, 10 RBI and 13 runs scored. He’s also recorded five multi-hit games over his last nine starts along with building upon an already impressive 42.4% hard contact rate. Like Mancini with the Blue Jays, Albies has thrived versus Phillies pitching, going .343/.395/.600 (.995 OPS), earning him the same vulgar looks Philly fans have given to the likes of other enemies like Joe Carter, Terrell Owens and Santa Claus.

9/18 DFS Hitting Picks — Third Baseman

Miguel Sano, MIN at CWS

DK ($5,000), FD ($3,600)

Sano’s 486-foot moonshot on Tuesday was his third blast in his last four games since the Twins returned to American League play. After missing four straight games, Sano will continue to rake, as he has recorded four hits and a .955 OPS in 10 at-bats against Ivan Nova, who gets the nod tonight against the White Sox. A cool stat about Sano: he has a .708 slugging percentage in his last 58 at-bats against curveball specialists like Nova. Hmmm…

9/18 DFS Hitting Picks — Shortstop

Adalberto Mondesi, KC at OAK

DK ($4,600), FD ($3,600)

Wait, wasn’t he not supposed to run? Mondesi didn’t get the memo, having recorded a pair of stolen bases over the past week. After a sluggish start to his return from the DL, Mondesi has stolen eight bases this month. He’s also recorded six hits over his last three games, making him an exception to the day’s main slate rule. Mondesi has a good 38.1% hard contact rate and remains a pull-centric hitter (45.9% rate). Even with missing a significant portion of the season, Mondesi will get at least 40 steals. Imagine how many more he could tally if he improved his 4% walk rate and 29.1% strikeout rate.

9/18 DFS Hitting Picks — Outfielder

Kyle Schwarber, CHI vs. CIN

DK ($4,400), FD ($3,600)

In his deepest thoughts, Schwarber must be thinking, “this is what plate discipline feels like!” He’s put together a .369 OBP this month to go along with a 1.064 OPS. Schwarber has banged out five homers, 17 RBI and 13 runs scored. Whether he can bottle that up for traditional Fantasy isn’t the issue here. What is is that Schwarber is 4-for-10 against Reds starter Tyler Mahle with a homer and an 1.155 OPS.

9/18 DFS Hitting Picks — Outfielder

Eloy Jimenez, CWS at MIN

DK ($4,000), FD ($3,900)

With a pair of three-hit games over the past three, Jimenez has tacked on 12 points to his batting average, putting him at .261. While he has scuffled against Twins pitching, Jimenez does have three homers against them and comes into tonight having hit .433 with three homers and eight RBI over the past week. Jimenez has boosted his Isolated Power to .234 along with raising his hard contact rate to 37.8%.

9/18 DFS Hitting Picks — Outfielder

Kyle Lewis, SEA at PIT

DK ($3,800), FD ($3,500)

The rookie’s 34.4% strikeout rate looks like some grotesque scene from the Saw movie franchise, but — like Jigsaw — Lewis is alive. It certainly helps to have a .467 Isolated Power and making the most of a 55% medium contact rate. There’s the prospect of a mild Mariners stack that begins with Lewis and Navarez.

9/11 DFS Hitting Stacks

9/18 Hitting Stack of the Day: Minnesota Twins: The White Sox plan to use Ivan Nova in the opener role. That means the Twins can tee off on a Chicago bullpen that has allowed 75 homers. Nelson Cruz ($3,200 FD) has two homers and an 1.134 OPS against Nova. Mitch Garver ($3,100 FD) could also be fit into a stack that would include the aforementioned Sano.

9/18 Hitting Stack Runner-Up: Houston Astros: Rangers starter Kolby Allard has a 2.28 ERA on the road. The Astros are expensive, as usual, but building with Yordan Alvarez ($5,600 DK) and Yuli Gurriel ($4.400 DK) would be helped with bargain bats Jake Marisnick ($3,700 DK) and Abraham Toro ($3,500) should both find their way into the lineup.

9/18 Hitting Stack to Consider: Cincinnati Reds: Cubs lefty Jon Lester has allowed 15 runs in his last 10.1 innings. Eugenio Suarez ($3,900 FD) has five career homers off Lester. Aristides Aquino ($3,400 FD) snapped out of a funk by hitting his 16th homer on Tuesday, Light-hitting Jose Peraza ($2,000 FD) has also tagged Lester well, having hit .353 against him 34 career at-bats.

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5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

9/18 DFS Pitching Picks: Good Time at the Cole K Corral

5 years ago

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The highlight of the 9/18 DFS Pitching Picks could be dimmed by a nasty, blustery lady named Imelda.

The Tropical Depression Formerly Known as Tropical Storm Imelda is expected to hammer the Houston area with high winds and up to 12 inches of rain between now and Thursday. While it’s highly unlikely the weather will be a factor in Gerrit Cole’s bid for 300 strikeouts, let’s not leave everything to chance.

Cole is the best play of Wednesday’s main slate. There are five games scheduled for the afternoon, where Max Scherzer and Noah Syndergaard are each pitching. The daytime even features Marlins hurler Sandy Alcantara, who’s made for a great GPP option over his past five starts.

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9/18 DFS Pitching Picks – Cash Game Pitcher

Gerrit Cole, HOU vs. TEX

DK ($12,800), FD ($12,100)

Cole has six straight games of at least 10 strikeouts, so it’s not a question of if, but how long into the night before Cole reaches 300 Ks, making him only the third pitcher in franchise history to do so. He’s delivered at least 30 DraftKings points in each of his last six starts; FanDuel users have seen Cole record at least 30 points in 14 straight outings.

Currently sitting at a 39.4% strikeout rate, Cole will have at least two more starts to get as close as possible to 40%. He’s fanned 20 Royals over 14.1 innings this season, including 11 in last Friday’s win. Over the past month, Cole has struck out a staggering 55.6% of the batters he’s faced, with his slider one of the driving forces behind the run. It’s been an increase of using his slider that has helped explode his strikeout rate to heights we didn’t think we’d see after Cole struck out over 36% in 2018.

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9/18 DFS Pitching Picks – GPP Pitchers

Jake Odorizzi, MIN vs. CWS

DK ($10,600), FD ($9,300)

The Ks have come aplenty for Odorizzi when facing the White Sox, having fanned 23 over 16.1 innings. He’s a solid 9/18 DFS Pitching Picks play in GPP formats, especially when you consider he’s yet to allow a homer to Pale Hose bats this season.

Odorizzi has an 0.98 HR/9 rate despite allowing a hard contact rate of 42.3% and a 44.3% fly ball rate. How the hell he’s pulled such a low HR/9 in this of all seasons is beyond me. The reduction in BB/9 from 3.83 from last season to 3.12 this year has helped carry him to two starts of at least 40 FanDuel points in his last three starts.

Aaron Civale, CLE vs. DET

DK ($9,100), FD ($8,500)

Civale has yet to allow more than two earned runs and gets a gem of a start against a Tigers team that is averaging less than four runs per game over the past week. Detroit is hitting a composite .234/.285/.363 versus average fly ball/ground ball pitchers like Civale, who has allowed just two homers in 46.2 innings of work.

I like Civale in FanDuel, as he has put up at least 30 points in five of his eight starts. You’ll also like him more considering he’s delivered a 1.06 ERA with 17 strikeouts over 17 innings when pitching at Progressive Field. At this late in the season, chances are good Civale should be able to keep his BABIP around his current .267. With a thin main slate, Civale’s a solid 9/18 DFS Pitching Picks option.

Adrian Houser, MIL vs. SD

DK ($5,300), FD ($6,500)

Bah Gawd! Houser is cheap. He also falls into a wonderful matchup against a Padres offense that has hit a combined .205/.330/.373 in their past seven games. San Diego’s batters are averaging nearly 11 strikeouts in the same span, which plays well with Houser’s 9.52 K/9 rate. You can live with Houser’s 1.19 HR/9 even against the all-or-nothing Padres bats that have produced a .373 slugging percentage and .652 OPS over the past two weeks.

If he’s not whiffing batters, Houser’s 53.4% ground ball rate will keep his infielders busy. He has a pretty low 24.8% fly ball rate and does also project to flirt with 30 points at FanDuel. I’d run with Houser and load up on offense.

9/18 DFS Pitching Picks – Punt Pick

Tony Gonsolin, LAD vs. TB

DK ($8,700), FD ($6,600)

Gonsolin holds a .219 BABIP and continues to be a reasonable choice in GPP or Punt plays. That trend should maintain itself despite a 47% hard contact rate against and a 43.9% fly ball rate. Those trends will sooner or later walk him down.

Don’t expect the Rays to get too many line drives off of him, as Gonsolin allows just a 13.3% line drive rate. He’s obviously a better pitcher at home (.120 batting average allowed, 1.20 ERA), so while he’s not going to go too deep in games, Gonsolin should do just enough to make him a worthy punt.

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

The MLB DFS Stacks and Hitting Picks Of Destiny For September 14

5 years ago

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This Saturday September 14th slate is all about landing the right bats. Follow my stud and value plays and lock in the MLB DFS Picks of Destiny.

Check out our Data Driven Projections for FanDuel Hitters for Premium Gold Members.

Todays picks are listed in order of preference, not price.

David Jones won 100K on FanDuel! Read about it here!

Stacks

Cleveland Indians

The second game of the doubleheader will be on the main slate and should be a bullpen game for the Twins. Former Uber driver Randy Dobnak recently got called up and he will be starting for Minnesota. He actually has looked pretty good in MiLB with a 2.07 ERA but this Indians team is a different caliber of hitters than what he is used to. In Dobnak’s last three innings pitched in the bigs he has given up three runs. I feel like the Twins will try and extend him, until he implodes, in an attempt to preserve the bullpen arms as long as possible.

Fransisco Lindor, Franmil Reyes, Carlos Santana, Jose Ramirez, Yasiel Puig, Jason Kipnis

San Diego Padres

Last night Coors Field made the struggling Padres finally come alive again. Tonight Peter Lambert is pitching for the Rockies and it’s not going to be pretty, again. He currently has a 6.86 ERA and gets absolutely dominated every time he is on the mound. I had to go back to the June game-logs to find a start where he didn’t give up multiple runs. The Padres are priced fairly tonight and there really is no reason half of them shouldn’t pay off. Last night they were able to put eight runs on the board. If they can do that again, which they certainly have a chance of with Lambert pitching, we should be building our bankroll for NFL tomorrow.

Eric Hosmer, Manny Machado, Greg Garcia, Nick Martini, Wil Myers, Austin Hedgers

Colorado Rockies

I like to play the Rockies vs lefties. Eric Lauer is on the bump for the Padres, and while he has been decent for San Diego (4.41 ERA, 1.38 WHIP) pitching in Coors Field isn’t something that is going to help his numbers. My MLB DFS stack will start with Trevor Story, who has already taken Lauer deep twice in just 12 at bats against him in his career. The Rockies put up 10 runs last night, we just need them to keep their foot on the gas.

Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado, Ian Desmond, Ryan McMahon, Patrick Valaika, Daniel Murphy, Charlie Blackmon

Sneaky Stacks: White Sox, A’s, Giants, Twins

Catcher: James McCann ($3,000 FD) goes against Felix Hernandez (R) in Seattle. In 10 ABs vs Hernandez, McCann has one home run and hits to a .400 ISO/.315 wOBA. On the season McCann has 12 home runs vs right handed pitching. Hernandez has been struggling towards the back end of the season and is getting lit up basically every start. He has not made it six innings since April 30th. McCann should be low owned and he has upside.

Catcher Pivot: Austin Hedges

First Base: Jose Abreu ($4,100 FD) is on fire right now. He has hit five home runs in his last eight games. In the same time frame he has had at least one hit in every game. He also gets to pick on the struggling Hernandez mentioned above. On the season, he has 24 home runs vs righties with a .226 ISO/.327 wOBA. Love it for MLB DFS.

First Base Pivots: Carlos Santana, Eric Hosmer, Daniel Murphy

Second Base: Ryan McMahon ($3,500 FD) is at home in Coors today and is priced very fairly for someone who is in the middle of the lineup and hits lefties at .229 ISO/.337 wOBA. He has nine home runs in 140 ABs vs. southpaws and I think the Rockies are going to get to Eric Lauer tonight. If you stack Rockies, McMahon fits nicely.

Second Base Pivots: Jason Kipnis, Greg Garcia

Third Base: Nolan Arenado ($4,800 FD) is the best Rockie on the board. He is another hot bat right now with three home runs in his last four games. He smashes lefties at .302/.448 wOBA. He is my favorite MLB DFS bat on the slate.

Third Base Pivots: Yoan Moncada, Manny Machado

Shortstop: Francisco Lindor ($4,400 FD) is also slashing the ball lately. He has four home runs in his last six games. He has 23 home runs on the season vs righties and hits .274 ISO/.380 wOBA. He should lead the charge vs. the Twins bullpen tonight and is extraordinarily safe. Plug in him, or Trevor Story (OR BOTH) and get weird somewhere else.

Shortstop Pivots: Trevor Story (also elite option at SS)

Outfield: Ian Desmond ($3,400 FD). I am going to stay with this underpriced Rockie. Desmond has the second best numbers vs. lefties on the Rockies, which is surprising. He carries a .301 ISO/.389 wOBA with 11 home runs on the season, which ties Charlie Blackmon. I trust him tonight hitting behind Arenado.

Outfield: Franmil Reyes ($3,000 FD) is just too cheap. He has be up and down lately but I can get behind him in this bullpen game at $3,000 on FanDuel. He has the most home runs vs righties on the Indians with 28. He hits .272 ISO/.339 wOBA. Excellent MLB DFS value here.

Outfield: Wil Myers ($3,200 FD) has a hit in 12 of his last 13 games with two home runs. He has 10 home runs on the season vs righties. I like his place in the order and I like the park his is hitting in today. Also he faces Peter Lambert (6.68 ERA) who gets absolutely crushed in Coors.

Outfield Pivots: Charlie Blackmon, Yasiel Puig, Nick Martini, Kyle Lewis

I primary used FanDuel when building optimal MLB DFS lineups.

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5 years ago 0 comment

MLB Daily Fantasy Sports

9/12 DFS Hitting Picks & Stacks: Big Bats for Thursday

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

Today is thirsty Thursday, and I’m going to quench you with some easily digestible lineup selections for the 9/12 DFS main slate, which kicks off at 7:05 and has just seven games. We’ve got DFS stacks, one-offs and some standout options for GPPs, including one squad that’s bound to break through against a veteran hurler with limited stuff. Let’s go win some green!

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9/12 DFS Hitting Stacks of the Day

Atlanta Braves at Drew Smyly

I’m going GPP before cash here and picking on a pitcher with a 2.16% HR/FB rate in Drew Smyly. You can stack Coors all you want in the afternoon slates (what’s with the 2-1 games, fellas?), but I’m looking to a talented Braves lineup that’s loaded with powerful right-handed bats and some left-handed hitters like Freddie Freeman who don’t crumble when a southpaw is on the mound. Atlanta carries a .331 team wOBA against LHPs and Smyly is eminently hittable. The classic 1-5 stack is in play, as are platoon bats Austin Riley (.291/.375/.745 slash) and GPP favorite Adam Duvall (if he cracks the lineup).

LosAngeles Dodgers at Dylan Bundy

Yup, I’m going right back to the Dodgers despite an anemicperformance last night against John Means, who’s a pretty good pitcher in hisown right. Dylan Bundy is a lot easier to attack from both sides of the plate(.398 xwOBA vs. LHBs and .391 vs. RHBs), so I’m not concerned about keepinganybody off. Lefties Joc Pederson, Cody Bellinger and Matt Beaty are all duefor offensive breakouts and Gavin Lux ($2,600 on DK, $2,800 on FD) and CoreySeager ($4,500 on DK, $3,600 on FD) are plenty affordable as well.

Houston Astros vs. Homer Bailey

His name is Homer, and these are the power-hitting Astros. I’m not trying to oversimplify things, because there’s plenty of data to support a blitz on Bailey –including a park shift that favors Houston over the veteran right-hander. Bailey has yielded a .429 xOBA to righties since 2018 when pitching his home games in Oakland and Kansas City, and the Astros are at home and have bats from both sides of the plate that I want exposure to here, including George Springer, Jose Altuve, Michael Brantley, Alex Bregman and Yordan Alvarez. Value options include Aledmys Diaz and Abraham Toro, not to mention inexpensive catcher Robinson Chirinos.

9/12 DFS Hitting Stacks to Consider

Washington Nationals at Kyle Gibson

Boston Red Sox at Clay Buchholz

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Jhoulys Chacin

9/12 DFS Hitting Catcher

Francisco Cervelli, ATL at PHI

DK ($2,700) FD ($2,300)

This is a pure value play considering the Braves have so much talent throughout their lineup and Cervelli does a pretty good job (.414 xwOBA) vs. LHPs. He’s a cheap fifth batter in Braves stacks on DK and makes for an inexpensive utility or C-1B play on FD — if you can stomach rostering just three other bats from this team.

9/12 DFSHitting First Baseman

Mitch Moreland, BOS at TOR

DK ($4,000) FD ($2,800)

You’re getting a great matchup in the middle of a stacked lineup for cheap price with Moreland. Big Mitch has BvP covered in a 4-for-8 small sample against Buchholz, who’s he’s homered against, and there’s plenty to like about going with this sneaky lefty at your 1B spot in a crowded GPP field focused on bigger names. Moreland has double-dinger potential and makes for a fine one-off or part of a Sox mini-stack.

9/12 DFS Hitting Second Baseman

Nick Solak, TEX vs. TB

DK ($4,100) FD ($3,300)

Going right back to the well with Solak, who’s made me look good in this spot, and doesn’t command a very high price. The Rangers are probably only worth considering for a contrarian, large-field GPP stack because they’ve struggled against lefties this season (just a .308 wOBA and 82wRC+), but Solak offers a .379 ISO against LHPs and the venue is ripe for hitting. I’m not scared of Brendan McKay, even though he’s been able to whiff some bats here and there, and Solak is in the heart of the Rangers lineup with plenty of run-producing opportunities.

9/12 DFS Hitting Third Baseman

Josh Donaldson, ATL at PHI

DK ($5,200) FD ($3,500)

Donaldson is historically good against LHPs with a career xwOBA of .XXX and he’s destroyed Smyly in 19 career ABs, including nine hits, three HRs and a 1.629 OPS. Whatever sample size you’re looking at, he’s a great play in a hitter’s park in that potent Atlanta lineup. He and Acuna will be the main focus of my Braves stacks.

9/12 DFS Hitting Shortstop

Corey Seager, LAD at BAL

DK ($4,500) FD ($3,600)

Even after a recent two-homer night, the price on Seager isaffordable and the slick young shortstop has resumed the No. 2 slot in the Dodgersorder. I’ve mentioned my affinity for attacking Bundy in Camden Yards, and thisslate provides an opportunity to get one of the highest upside shortstops (rightthere with Xander Bogaerts) at a cut rate.

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9/12 DFS Hitting Outfielders

Andrew Benintendi, BOS at TOR

DK ($4,000) FD ($3,200)

The Red Sox have been slumping at the plate, but Benintendi’s numbers over the past two seasons against RHBs (.405 xwOBA) make me excited to play him against Buchholz. There aren’t too many outfielders at this price point with as much run-producing upside.

Michael Brantley, HOU vs. OAK

DK ($4,300) FD ($4,000)

I have no qualms about you stacking the Astros outfield in its entirety and using both Alvarez and Springer, but if there’s one bat I’d lean towards as a one-off, especially if I’m building an expensive stack elsewhere, it’s Brantley. He’s always a little too cheap and offers plenty of upside with excellent numbers at home (.381 wOBA) and against RHPs (.207 ISO).

Ronald Acuna, Jr., ATL at PHI

DK ($5,500) FD ($4,100)

Acuna has a .488 xwOBA and .277 ISO vs. LHPs this season andremains the premier leadoff hitter in the NL. He’s an essential part of myBraves stacks, sometimes gets ignored because of his lofty price tag, and isplayable in both cash games and GPPs for his solid floor and soaring upside.

Additional options:

C: Robinson Chirinos ($3,800 DK), Reese McGuire ($3,300 DK)

1B: Jesus Aguilar ($2,800 FD), Matt Adams ($3,400 DK)

2B: Cavan Biggio ($4,200 DK) Brad Miller ($3,000 DK)

3B: Kyle Seager ($4,300 DK), Eugenio Suarez ($4,700 DK)

SS: Bo Bichette ($5,000 DK), Xander Bogaerts (4,900 DK)

OF: Aristides Aquino ($3,700 FD), Philip Ervin ($3,300 DK),Jonathan Davis ($2,600 DK), Danny Santana ($4,700 DK) Jay Bruce (GPP option at 3,800on DK)

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

9/10 MLB DFS Winners

Vincent Pensabene 5 years ago

written by Vincent Pensabene

A flashback at some of the best performances from the Monday slate plus their outlooks for the remainder of the season on the 9/10 MLB DFS review and look ahead.

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9/10 MLB DFS Winner: Zack Greinke

As Jason had him in our Premium Gold Cheatsheet as a value pitcher, Greinke was pretty good against the Oakland Athletics, going six shutout innings with two hits and five strikeouts. He also lowered his combined season ERA to 2.99.

Outlook for the rest of the season: Zack Greinke has been a solid pickup since the Astros acquired him at the Trade Deadline. Since joining Houston, he is 5-1 with a 3.32 ERA in seven starts. Expect Greinke to continue being a solid starting pitcher as he gets ready for the ALDS and potentially beyond.

9/10 MLB DFS Winner: Nicholas Castellanos

Another solid choice by Jason on the Cheatsheet was Nicholas Castellanos for the Chicago Cubs. Facing off against the San Diego Padres, Castellanos went 3-for-5 with a homer, a couple of RBI and three runs scored.

Outlook for the rest of the season: Castellanos has been En Fuego since joining a playoff contender in Chicago. Since August 1 (when he was traded from the Tigers) he has a .364 BABIP and a 1.056 OPS. Not to mention he has yet to commit an error since the trade while playing both corner outfield spots. Expect Castellanos to continue to rake down the final stretch.

9/10 MLB DFS Winner: Trent Grisham

Here is a screenshot of the 25 cheapest outfielders on our Hitter Projection Model, available for all premium users. Trent Grisham batted leadoff against the Miami Marlins yesterday and went 5-for-6 with a double, triple, two RBI and two runs.

Outlook for the rest of the season: Grisham is almost at 100 at-bats for the season and is at .260 wth four HRs and 13 RBI. Getting Grisham some plate appearances in the stretch run could pay dividends for the Brewers as a potential bench piece on a playoff roster.

9/10 MLB DFS Winner: Houston Astros Offense

For the second night in a row, the Houston Astros had an offensive explosion. Against the Oakland Athletics, the team combined for 15 runs on 17 hits with a pair of walks and reached on a throwing error. Robinson Chirinos went 3-for-4 with two homers and six RBI while Jose Altuve went 3-for-3 with a home run and two RBI.

Outlook for the rest of the season: The Houston Astros continue to dominate in all facets of the game. This is back-to-back incedible offensive performances throughout the lineup. Houston looks serious to try and own the best record in baseball for home-field advantage throughout the postseason.

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

9/9 MLB DFS Winners

Vincent Pensabene 5 years ago

written by Vincent Pensabene

A flashback at some of the best performances from the Sunday slate plus their outlooks for the remainder of the season on the 9/9 MLB DFS review and look ahead.

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9/9 MLB DFS Winner: Shin-Soo Choo

As Wes had him in our Premium Gold Cheatsheet as a value outfielder, Shin-Soo Choo lit it up against the Baltimore Orioles, going 3-for-6 with two RBI and a run scored from the leadoff spot in the order.

Outlook for the rest of the season: Choo has had one of his best statistical seasons in his career in 2019. He is currently sitting at 21 HRs and is one away from tying a career-high. Expect him to finish the year around .270 with 25 HRs while the Rangers explore what they have going into 2020.

9/9 MLB DFS Winner: Sandy Alcantara

Here is a screenshot from our Premium Gold Pitcher Projection Model. Sandy Alcantara of the Miami Marlins was a middle-of-the-pack choice in terms of prices, but he pitched like an ace against the Kansas City Royals. He pitched a complete game shutout, allowing just four hits and two walks while racking up eight strikeouts as well.

Outlook for the rest of the season: Alcantara has now lowered his ERA to 4.04 with this gem.. All the numbers are looking good for what you want a young starting pitcher to have, so expect him to continue putting innings on his arm and pitching effectively in September.

9/9 MLB DFS Winner: Wilson Ramos

Here is a screenshot from our Premium Hitter Projections of the cheapest catchers/first base options. Wilson Ramos was listed for $2,400 on FanDuel and $4,100 on DraftKings and was a steal for anyone who added him to their lineup. He ended up going 3-for-4 with a double, homer, three RBI, a pair of runs and a walk against the Phillies.

Outlook for the rest of the season: Ramos has been on fire for the past month, batting .416 in that span. With this stretch, he could finish with an average of .300 for the season. Another good offensive season and expect Ramos to keep putting up solid lines in the boxscore throughout September.

9/9 MLB DFS Winner: Houston Astros Offense

The Houston Astros had an offensive explosion against the Seattle Mariners last night as they put up 21 runs on 22 hits with seven walks thrown in there as well. Designated hitter Yordan Alvarez had the best night of the group going 4-for-6 with three doubles, six RBI and a run scored.

Outlook for the rest of the season: The Houston Astros have the capability to put up some scary numbers like this against subpar pitching. They are currently tied for the best record in MLB with the New York Yankees but own the tiebreaker.

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

The MLB DFS Stacks and Hitting Picks Of Destiny For September 7

5 years ago

written by

This Sunday September 7th slate is all about landing the right bats. Follow my stud and value plays and lock in the MLB DFS Picks of Destiny.

Check out our Data Driven Projections for FanDuel Hitters for Premium Gold Members.

Todays picks are listed in order of preference, not price.

David Jones won 100K on FanDuel! Read about it here!

Stacks

Houston Astros

The Astros face Yusei Kikuchi (L) who has a 5.36 ERA and seems to be losing some control lately. In his last two starts he has only struck out two in nine innings. He has faced the Astros twice this season and given up a total of nine runs while not getting past the fifth inning in either contest. The Astros look to be in a prime MLB DFS spot to get to Kikuchi early again tonight. Statistacally the best bats are Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman and Yuli Gurriel. I break down each of my favorite bats below.

Atlanta Braves

The Braves take on the Washington Nationals and Austin Voth tonight. The Nats are not comfortable extending Voth and has already said he is not going past the fifth inning (if he makes it there). Then the Braves get to go against the Nationals bullpen for the next four innings. The Braves are hot again, winning 16 of their last 18, and I don’t see that slowing down tonight. Best MLB DFS bats are Freddie Freeman, Josh Donaldson, Ronald Acuna and Ozzie Albies.

Oakland A’s

Oakland really should give Zimmerman a lot of trouble tonight. They truly do have elite bats. Zimmerman has a 6.03 ERA. While he has been serviceable lately, by only giving two runs in each of his last three contests, he can also implode. I am really like what I am seeing from the A’s bats lately and if they roll out the right lineup, in the right order, then there should be fireworks. Oakland is trying to hang in this playoff hunt. Give me Mark Cahna, Matt Olsen, Matt Chapman, Marcus Semien and Jurickson Profar for MLB DFS.

L.A. Dodgers

Tonight’s MLB DFS theme is stacking hot bats vs below average pitchers. The elite Dodgers get to face Tyler Beede after a disappointing loss Friday night. Beede has a 5.61 ERA and has given up at least one run in 19 of his 20 starts. The Dodgers get some redemption tonight and lay it on thick in what appears to be greatMLB DFS weather in Southern California. Joe Pederson, Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy and the Fresh Prince.

Honorable Mention: Mets

Catcher: Will Smith ($3,000 FD) has 10 homers since getting called up in the bigs and bats .456 ISO/.439 vs righties (like Tyler Beede) this season. Last night Will Smith struck out to another Giants reliever named Will Smith with stranding a man on in the ninth and ending the game for the Dodgers by being down one run. Tonight he gets his redemption and makes Uncle Phil proud.

Catcher Pivot: Tyler Flowers

First Base: Freddie Freeman ($3,900 FD) is in a fantastic MLB DFS spot. He hits to a .302 ISO/.432 wOBA this year with 30 home runs. He bats vs Austin Voth, in what will be a limited appearance before the Nats bullpen comes in to attempt to limit damage. Freeman hasn’t homered in four games and has let the rest of the Braves to the majority of the damage. Tonight he should pull his weight and hopefully hit one in the Chop House.

First Base Pivot: Pete Alonso; Yuli Gurriel

Second Base: Jose Altuve ($4,200 FD) ranks as the best bat on the Astros for me tonight. He crushes lefties and Kikuchi shouldn’t be much competition for the former MVP. He swings to a .378 ISO/.468 wOBA on the season vs southpaws and has multiple hits in his last two games. When Altuve gets hot, you play him in MLB DFS.

Second Base Pivot: Max Muncy; Ozzie Albies; Jurickson Profar

Third Base: Matt Chapman ($3,800 FD) has 21 homers this season vs right handed pitching. The Oakland core is lethal and if they can get this lineup turning over I expect big things. Chapman hits at a .249 ISO/.418 wOBA. Chapman usually doesn’t put up a goose egg in MLB DFS. I expect him to get on the base a couple times at minimum, but I am playing him because he should be able to get one in the bleachers tonight.

Third Base Pivot: Josh Donaldson (HOT)

Shortstop: Alex Bregman ($4,400 FD) is on a tear right now. He has scored 27.9,13,21.7,18.5, 12.5 and 19.2 FanDuel points in his last six contests. He is hitting at a .333 ISO/.440 wOBA vs lefties with 11 home runs. Things are not going to get any harder for him once a right handed pitcher comes in after Kikuchi either. Don’t overthink him, play the hot bat in one of my favorite MLB DFS stacks.

Shortstop Pivots: Marcus Semien; Ahmed Rosario

Outfield: Yordan Alvarez ($4,200 FD) is another Astro I love. With the second most home runs on the team vs lefties Alvarez will be making my main lineup. He swings to a .350 ISO/ .411 wOBA and will be in the sweet spot of the Houston lineup. He will have the opportunity to get some RBIs as well and have the back of the Astros lineup push him around the bases. Very safe.

Outfield: Cody Bellinger ($4,600 FD) is the most expensive outfielder today but has a fantastic matchup vs Tyler Beede. I will do my best to get him in, and with some cheaper pitching options today, I think it is doable. He swings to a .343 ISO/.441 wOBA this season and is of course always a home run threat. You need that from him tonight if you pay up. Joc Pederson is a great play as well. I rank them 1A and 1B on the Dodgers.

Outfield: Mark Canha ($3,400 FD) The A’s are priced pretty good today for what I expect them to do vs Jordan Zimmerman. The core of this lineup all has the chance to go deep honestly but Canha statistically has the best shot. He hits to a .274 ISO/.418 wOBA with 17 homers on the season vs righties. Get him in your Oakland MLB DFS stacks.

Outfield Pivots: Ronald Acuna, Ramon Laureano, Matt Joyce

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5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

MLB Stacks: Winning Edge for September 1

5 years ago

written by

This report will provide recommended DFS stack options for today’s eight-game main slate (10 games on DK). I will also include my favorite pitching picks.

All plays are listed in order of preference. Please check back between 5-6 PM EST as some players can receive rest days or get limited at bats especially as we get closer to the postseason. Make sure you stay up to date with all our favorite plays on our Premium Gold DFS Cheat Sheet as well.

Teams with Highest IRT

MLB Stack: New York Yankees

vs. LHP Sean Manaea (COL): 6.00 Runs

Sean Manaea is back for his first start in the show since having surgery for a small tear in his shoulder. He doesn’t look to be on a pitch count, he threw seven scoreless innings while only allowing two hits in triple-A Las Vegas on Augugst 23rd. He comes into Yankee Stadium sporting a lofty .289 wOBA, .398 OBP, and .275 OBP against righties in 2018. If he were on a pitch count I would be more into the Yankees. Manaea had a good 2018 campaign and he is coming off eight days of rest. He also showed us in his latest minor league game he can pitch without restriction. The Yankees are slashing to a massive .434 wOBA, .325 ISO, and 175 WRC+ to lefties over the last month.

Preferred Stack:DJ LeMahieu ($4200 FD|$5100 DK), Aaron Judge ($4400 FD|$5200 DK), Gleyber Torres ($4000 FD|$4800 DK), and Gary Sanchez ($4000 FD|$4600 DK).

MLB Stack: Houston Astros

vs. RHP Wilmer Font (TOR): 5.90 Runs

The Astros continue to ride their strong hitting averages, slashing to a .402 wOBA, .250 ISO, and 158 WRC+ recently against righties. Wilmer Font maintains a 1.76 ERA in the month of August (15.1 IP). He does tend to struggle to left handed batting (.364 wOBA, .529 SLG). I’m not to crazy about any of the righties other than George Springer and Yuli Gurriel. The core lefties (Brantley, Springer) are my top plays in this lineup.

Preferred Stack: George Springer ($4200 FD|$5400 DK), Michael Brantley ($4000 FD|$4900 DK), Yordan Alvarez ($4100 FD|$5700 DK), and Yuli Gurriel ($3700 FD|$5000 DK).

MLB Stack: Minnesota Twins

vs. RHP Reynaldo Lopez (CWS): 5.75 Runs

I am really loving the Twins again right now. Spencer Turnbull does just enough to escape it seems. He is also sitting in front of one of the worst bullpens in baseball. The Twins have been surging against righties the last few weeks, boasting a .361 wOBA, .212 ISO, and .352 BABIP. This is an easy tournament play that may go overlooked and underplayed.

Other Teams I Have Interest in

MLB Stack: Chicago Cubs

vs. LHP Gio Gonzalez (MIL): UPDATE

Preferred Plays: Kris Bryant ($3900 FD|$4400 DK), Nicholas Castellanos ($3200 FD|$4700 DK), Anthony Rizzo ($3900 FD|$5200 DK), and Ian Happ ($2600 FD|$4000 DK).

MLB Stack: Baltimore Orioles

vs. LHP Danny Duffy (KCR): 4.50 Runs

Preferred Plays: Trey Mancini ($3600 FD|$4400 DK), Anthony Santander ($3000 FD|$4300 DK), Hanser Alberto ($2900 FD|$4100 DK), Jonathan Villar ($3600 FD|$5200 DK). Pedro Severino ($3700 DK).

Pitching

Patrick Corbin LHP (WSH): 3.00 Runs
Michael Pineda RHP (MIN): 3.75 Runs
Charlie Morton RHP (TAM): 3.50 Runs

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5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

The MLB DFS Hitting Picks Of Destiny For September 1

David Jones 5 years ago

written by David Jones

This Sunday September 1st slate is all about landing the right bats. Follow my stud and value plays and lock in the MLB DFS Picks of Destiny.

Check out our Data Driven Projections for FanDuel Hitters for Premium Gold Members.

Todays picks are listed in order of preference, not price.

David Jones won 100K on FanDuel! Read about it here!

Catcher: UPDATE: NOT STARTING Mitch Garver ($3,300 FD) has five hits and three home runs in his last two games. He is slashing .429/ 1.143 ISO over the last seven days. He takes on the Detroit Tigers starter Spencer Turnbull and his deceptive 4.18 ERA. As the season has progressed, Turnbull has gotten less reliable. In August he touts a 6.55 ERA. He has given up at least one (usually more) runs in every game he has pitched in since June 11th. In his last eight innings he has given up nine runs. Garver is in a fantastic MLB DFS spot to keep his elite run alive.

Catcher Value: Jason Castro, Robinson Chirinos

First Base: Yuli Gurriel ($3,700 FD) Here is a reasonably priced Astro for MLB DFS. Gurriel is hitting .247 ISO/.386 wOBA with 22 homers vs righties. He is En Fuego right now and on a nine game hit streak. He should be batting sixth behind five fantastic Astro bats. Gurriel should easily be able to reach double digit FanDuel points today with upside for over 20 if he can send one over the wall. Spoiler alert; he can.

First Base Pivot: UPDATE NOT STARTING: Mike Ford, Matt Olsen

Second Base: Whit Merrifield ($3,400 FD) is my favorite second baseman to exceed MLB DFS value today. He is underpriced and gets and fantastic matchup vs one of my favorite pitchers to target in Aaron Brooks (and the Baltimore Bullpen). Brooks has a 5.79 ERA and gets blown up almost every game he pitches in. Throw out his last start in Washington where he shutout the Nats. I watched that whole game and I blame the Nationals lack of enthusiasm more than Brooks suddenly “figuring it out”. Before last game, Brooks has only scoring over 31 fantasy points ONE TIME since April Fools Day (not joking). Royals are my favorite stack on the day and Whit is going to help lead the charge.

Second Base Pivot: Jose Altuve

Third Base: DJ LaMahieu ($4,200 FD) is on a hot streak with multiple hits in four of his last six games. He hits .286 ISO/.477 wOBA on the season vs lefties and gets to face Sean Manaea this afternoon in Yankee Stadium. Manaea is coming off the 60 day IL after shoulder surgery and I wouldn’t expect him to last six innings here. He has looked sharp in is rehab starts in Triple-A but facing this bomb hitting Yankees squad will be a much different task. LaMahieu should be batting lead off and has not put up a goose egg in his last eight starts. He feels safe with big MLB DFS upside today.

Third Base Pivot: Miguel Sano, Hunter Dozier, Matt Chapman

Shortstop: Alex Bregman ($4,200 FD) I really like the Astros today but the price of all the bats is making it difficult to stack them. He hits .259 ISO/.395 wOBA with 21 home runs. He is batting cleanup and no matter which pitcher Toronto chooses to follow Font (Gaviglio or Godley), Bregman is a solid play at shortstop. He is always contributing. Bregman has not put up a zero in the box score since August 2nd. That alone is impressive. He is safe.

Shortstop Pivots: Adalberto Mondesi, Trea Turner, Marcus Semien

Outfield: Aaron Judge ($4,400 FD) is possibly the hottest hitter in baseball right now. He has a home run in six of his last eight games. He is absolutely locked in. He faces Sean Manaea in his first start since his shoulder surgery. Manaea is not a terrible pitcher but Judge is an elite bat that should be able to take advantage of him, AND the Oakland A’s bullpen. Lock in Judge and figure the rest out.

Outfield: Max Kepler ($3,500 FD) is way to cheap on FanDuel. He should easily be priced over 4K today. He has 26 home runs on the season vs righties and hits .293 ISO/.359 wOBA. He has multiple hits in his last two games in Detroit and at minimum he is getting on base again. The Twins as a team have put up 30 runs combined in their last three games. Today they keep their foot on the gas and Kepler gets his.

Outfield: Jorge Soler ($3,500 FD) is hitting .303 ISO/.373 wOBA vs righties this season and has 33 homers. He goes against my fave pitcher to target in MLB DFS, Aaron Brooks. Easy choice, especially at that price.

Outfield Pivots: Houston Outfield (Springer, Alvarez, Brantley)

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5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

8/28 DFS Pitching Picks: Cole Lotta Whiffing Going On

5 years ago

written by

If the 8/27 DFS Pitching Picks was Popeye’s Chicken Sandwich, then the 8/28 DFS Pitching Picks feels like the last overpriced microwave “chicken sandwich” at the local gas station.

Outside of another gem of a pitching matchup in Houston and Thor wielding his mighty hammer at Citi Field, the rest of the day’s slate is, well, bad.

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8/28 DFS Pitching Picks Cash Game Pitchers

Gerrit Cole, HOU vs. TB

DK ($12,000), FD ($12,200)

Cole will draw a high percentage of users, especially in FanDuel where he’s recorded at least 40 FD points in nine straight starts dating to June 30. He’s coming off his third start of at least 60 FD points in this run, a 67-pointer against the Tigers last Thursday. Cole currently leads the Majors in ERA+ with 163, due in part to his ability to humiliate hitters at offensive-friendly Minute Maid Park (.178 OBA). Since the All-Star Break, Cole has been downright frightening, running a 6-0 mark with 68 strikeouts over 47 innings, raising his strikeout rate to 37.3%. Ranked sixth in FIP at 2.98, Cole gets to a face a Rays team that was hitting just .202/.233/.323 before Tuesday’s beatdown where they managed just one run on seven hits. Play. Him.

Noah Syndergaard, NYM vs. CHC

DK ($10,300), FD ($10,000)

Friendly piece of advice: leave Cubs hitters alone if you’re banking on homers from your DFS lineup. Syndergaard has allowed just one homer in his last 54.1 innings, which explains the 28.7% hard contact rate he’s allowed. His fastball has expanded its bite, kicking up to 97.7 mph, as Syndergaard has increased his usage of premium gas to 58.6% of the time. Not quite in a run like Cole’s, Syndergaard has still produced a run of eight straight starts of at least 30 points at FanDuel that includes four starts of at least 46 FP. If you’re looking to save money but want an elite arm for cash game purposes, Syndergaard’s the play. Opponents are batting just .207 against him since the ASB while also allowing three or fewer runs in seven of his last eight outings.

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8/28 DFS Pitching Picks GPP Pitchers

Ryan Yarborough, TB at HOU

DK ($9,300), FD ($9,000)

Man, it’s tough to suggest Yarborough after watching the Astros wear out Charlie Morton and the Rays bullpen for 15 runs on 18 hits Tuesday night. However, Yarborough is going to make more than one DFS’er think twice about a potential Astros stack. You’d think Yarborough’s home/road splits would tilt strongly toward dominance at the Trop, but you’d be wrong. Outside of Tampa Bay, he sports a 2.21 ERA and .174 OBA with just four homers allowed. Yarborough has elevated his strikeout rate to 22% and a K-BB% of 19%. Another reason to be hesitant on Astros bats tonight: Yarborough’s 29.4% hard contact rate allowed. Oh, here’s one more: an overall HR/FB% of just 8.8%. Forget Tuesday night and take your chances that Yarborough will meet a far better fate than Morton.

Max Scherzer, WAS vs. BAL

DK ($11,400), FD ($12,000)

Oh, the risk tolerance here. Scherzer himself said he’s not “out of the woods,” and it showed in the four innings and 71 pitches he tossed against the Pirates in his first start back from the DL. Name value and opponent are the only reasons why he’s suggested here, and while Scherzer’s proclaiming he’s not all the way back, there’s still the prospect of him delivering 35-40 points without getting to the seventh inning considering the Orioles are 20th in batter’s strikeouts and 26th in lBA (.252). B-More is also 22nd in adjusted batters runs (-65.3), making them a potentially nice blend of lousy that goes well with a hurler that has struck out 34.8% of the batters he’s faced. Overlooked in the midst of Scherzer’s clashes with injuries is a sharp reduction in fly balls, as it has gone from from seven straight seasons of at least 41.6% to 37.8%.

I strongly suggest NOT going with Scherzer in cash games. The risk far outweighs the rewards. While hesitant to add him here, facing the Orioles at home makes him more a GPP option.

8/28 DFS Pitching Punt Pick

Kenta Madea, LA at SD

DK ($8,000), FD ($8,700)

Maeda has 49 and 43 FD point outing in two of his last three starts, with a 32 FD pointer sandwiched in between. His K game has shown up in his past two starts, having struck out 18 batters despite pitching a combined 10 innings. Don’t expect him to eclipse more than 85-90 pitches, but expect the whiffs to keep coming as Maeda continues to use his change up as an excellent third complement to his heater and slider. Madea has gone from using his changeup 15.2% of the time in 2018 to 24.2% this year at the expense of reducing the frequency of his fastball (44.4% in 2018, 37.7% this season).

He gets something of a dream matchup in the Padres, who have gone .182/.254/.278 with 2.1 runs per game over the past week. San Diego batters are whiffing nearly nine times per game in that span, making Maeda a sneaky good punt play for the 8/28 DFS Pitching Picks.

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5 years ago 0 comment

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