Hockey DFS

The Hot Shot returns for a loaded Thursday night slate. We have thirteen games and there are lots of options to choose from and we will cover a few of them below. Aside from reading this 1/11 NHL DFS article, don’t forget to check out our NHL DFS Projection Model which is available every morning. If you like what you see, sign up for more Win Daily content here.

1/11 NHL Main Slate of Games – Beginning 7 p.m. ET

*All odds and player pricing below have been obtained from DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the time of writing*

Ottawa Senators (+110) at Buffalo Sabres (-130) – 7 Projected Goal Total

San Jose Sharks (+130) at Montreal Canadiens (-155) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total

Toronto Maple Leafs (-130) at New York Islanders (+110) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total

Edmonton Oilers (-175) at Detroit Red Wings (+145) – 7 Projected Goal Total

New Jersey Devils (+114) at Tampa Bay Lightning (-135) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total

Los Angeles Kings (+114) at Florida Panthers (-135) – 6 Projected Goal Total

Vancouver Canucks (+105) at Pittsburgh Penguins (-125) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total

Seattle Kraken (-118) at Washington Capitals (-102) – 6 Projected Goal Total

Anaheim Ducks (+270) at Carolina Hurricanes (-340) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total

New York Rangers (-166) at St. Louis Blues (+140) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total

Chicago Blackhawks (+340) at Winnipeg Jets (-440) – 6 Projected Goal Total

Calgary Flames (-118) at Arizona Coyotes (-102) – 6 Projected Goal Total

Boston Bruins (-125) at Vegas Golden Knights (+105) – 6 Projected Goal Total

1/11 NHL Favorite Lines

Montreal One – “Nick Suzuki ($5,500), Cole Caufield ($6,100)” – TWO MAN ONLY

It’s not often that the Montreal Canadiens are featured in the Hot Shot. In fact, this is likely their first appearance this season. However, I think that we have the perfect storm tonight. First off, the Canadiens play host to one of our favorite punching bags, the San Jose Sharks, and they are -155 favorites in a 6.5 projected total matchup. Next, they happen to have one of the hottest lines in the NHL. Montreal’s top line is currently tied for fifth among all NHL lines in terms of SATF “135” over their last ten games.

The next part comes down to lineup construction and salary considerations. As always, we have two center spots to fill so all else equal we have to give that some weight. Nick Suzuki’s price is fair at $5,500 and he’s had strong production with 34 points in 39 games “12 goals and 22 assists”. The fact that it so easy to pass on Juraj Slafkovsky “only 14 points in the same 39 games” helps make for an easy decision.

Of course, if we’re going to use this line, we’re also going to use Cole Caufield. At $6,100 he seems like a bit of a bargain. While his 27 points in 39 games so far this season are underwhelming for what we might expect from him, he has been much better as of late and is due for a big game. Between filling a center spot and utilizing moderate salaries with upside, so far, we are off to a good start.

Carolina One – “Sebastian Aho ($7,200), Andrei Svechnikov ($5,800)” – TWO MAN ONLY

Let’s start with the setup. The Hurricanes are -350 favorites hosting the Ducks in a projected 6.5 total matchup. On these bigger slates we like to target two-man lines and in some situations like Montreal’s which we previously covered, it’s an easy decision which two skaters to use from the selected line. I similarly think this line sets up similarly. While this line over has had middling stats, the two selected skaters listed above stand out.

Sebastian Aho “$7,200” is the tenth highest priced active center on DraftKings on this slate. However, within his past six games he has put up totals of 22.5, 27.5, 26.0, and 29.5 DraftKings points with at least three real life points in each of those efforts. He is clearly hitting his stride just in time for this soft matchup and also fills our second center spot.

Speaking of hot, at only $5,800, Andrei Svechnikov feels like a steal given his recent production. He has double-digits DraftKings points in six of his last seven games. This includes three performances finishing up with 24.5, 22.8, and 36.0 “hat trick” DraftKings points respectively.

You’d think with his linemates going wild, Teuvo Teravainen “$4,500” would luck into some points, right? Given how putrid he has been I will take a hard pass and pay the extra $1,300 for Svechnikov. I think any further thoughts I have regarding Teravainen are perhaps better left unsaid.

Winnipeg One – “Nikolaj Ehlers ($6,800), Gabriel Vilardi ($5,700)” TWO-MAN ONLY

When you’re a -440 favorite in a single hockey game, that speaks volumes. While their matchup with the Blackhawks only has a six total, it is no surprise where most of the goals are expected to be coming from. This line ranks tenth among NHL lines over their last ten games in terms of SATF “128” and is tied for sixth in goals “8”.

It is hard for me to stomach Mark Scheifele’s price at $6,900. Also, as of the time of writing, there has been no clarification regarding his status after an ear injury he suffered the other night. Given that this isn’t the soft NBA and instead it’s the NHL, I’d assume he will tough it out and play.

Since we don’t need any more centers, let’s turn to the two wings, Nikolaj Ehlers “$6,800” and Gabriel Vilardi “$5,700”. Both of the wings share additional correlation on Winnipeg’s first powerplay unit. Given the odds tonight, it’s a fair assessment to say the Jets may have a few powerplay opportunities. Although the price on Ehlers has snuck up a bit over the last few weeks, his production has also increased across that span. Vilardi has not been quite as good as Ehlers but has been solid and saves us $1,200 from Scheifele and these are savings we need.

1/11 NHL Defensemen and Goalies

Defensemen

Lukas Cormier – Vegas -$2,700 – We need very, very cheap defensemen to make everything work salary-wise. Currently due to all of the Golden Knight’s injuries, Cormier, only one game into his NHL career thus far is slated as quarterback of the Golden Knight’s top power-play unit. He grabbed an assist his first time out while seeing nineteen minutes of ice time and we’re just not going to get similar upside for this price.

Nick Perbix – Tampa Bay – $2,800 – Definitely not a sexy pick, but Perbix is contributing in a number of different ways between providing some assists and blocking shots, hence the 5.2 DraftKings points per game average. He fits salary wise and if you use every other player listed in this article your lineup will have $0 left remaining and cannot do any better.

Goalies

This is a rough slate for goalies, so I think the idea is to pay down a little bit as you’re not losing much passing on the highest priced goalies. With as many games as there are I was shocked to like so few goalies.

Adin Hill may be an option if he returns but then we have to keep eyes peeled and the Bruins aren’t the easiest matchup to return to face. Furthermore, were also a bit salary challenged if you used all six main skaters listed.

Alex Lyon – Detroit – $7,200 – I don’t mind Alex Lyon for $7,200 in a boom or bust matchup hosting the Oilers. He is already confirmed to start in net and has a stellar 2.51 GAA and .920 SV % this season. That said being confirmed so early and due to his price he may be chalky and can get blown up given as the seven projected total indicates.

Thatcher Demko – Vancouver – $7,400 – This where I’m currently leaning. We know Demko is a stud “2.54 GAA, .916 SV %”, he is fairly cheap at $7,400, the Canucks are close to even money in this matchup and the Penguins allow the most DraftKings points to opposing goalies. Much like Alex Lyon above, he may get blown up here. However, if taking some chances, I prefer to take them against the Penguins rather than Edmonton.

1/11 NHL Best Bet

Florida ML – (-135) – DraftKings – Facing the Kings who are traveling to the east coast, we have a team that has won eight straight hosting a team that has dropped six straight. While the law of averages isn’t absolute, for such close odds backing the Panthers makes sense.

Make sure to hop in our Expert Discord Chat for FREE! Rich will be there answering questions all day and all night! He is not very difficult to find on Discord with the username Rich Masana. Follow Rich on Twitter @JFan303 and be sure to be on the lookout for future articles at NHL – WIN DAILY® (windailysports.com)

Tonight, we have the first edition of the Hot Shot for 2024. We have a large slate with thirteen games and there are lots of options to choose from and we will cover a few of them below. Aside from reading this 1/4 NHL DFS article, don’t forget to check out our NHL DFS Projection Model which is available every morning. If you like what you see, sign up for more Win Daily content here.

1/4 NHL Main Slate of Games – Beginning 7 p.m. ET

*All odds and player pricing below have been obtained from DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the time of writing*

Pittsburgh Penguins (+140) at Boston Bruins (-166) – 6 Projected Goal Total

Buffalo Sabres (-130) at Montreal Canadiens (+110) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total

Chicago Blackhawks (+310) at New York Rangers (-395) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total

Columbus Blue Jackets (+154) at Philadelphia Flyers (-185) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total

Vancouver Canucks (-135) at St. Louis Blues (+114) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total

Calgary Flames (+105) at Nashville Predators (-125) – 6 Projected Goal Total

Colorado Avalanche (+105) at Dallas Stars (-125) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total

Tampa Bay Lightning (-130) at Minnesota Wild (+110) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total

New York Islanders (-115) at Arizona Coyotes (-105) – 6 Projected Goal Total

Florida Panthers (+105) at Vegas Golden Knights (-125) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total

Ottawa Senators (+110) at Seattle Kraken (-130) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total

Detroit Red Wings (+160) at Los Angeles Kings (-192) – 6.5 Projected Goal Total

Winnipeg Jets (-258) at San Jose Sharks (+210) – 6 Projected Goal Total

1/4 NHL Favorite Lines

Los Angeles One – “Anze Kopitar ($5,700), Trevor Moore ($5,900)” – TWO MAN ONLY

The Kings are in a good spot, -192 money line favorites in a 6.5 total matchup. However, with the top two lines recently mixed up, there’s a tough decision to make. One could even make an argument for the third line which cannot be said of many teams. Our first decision comes down to which center Anze Kopitar or Pierre Luc-Dubois for $2,200 less in salary. Kopitar is averaging a point per game (34 points in 34 games) whereas Dubois has failed to live up to prior seasons standards with 14 points in those same 34 games.

With Trevor Moore’s move up from the second to top line that sort of seals the deal for me how to approach this. Moore is having a career year with 17 goals to date matching his prior season high with plenty of games left to add to it. His $5,900 salary is very fair considering his upside. He has slowed down over his last two games but gets an exploitable matchup tonight.

New York Rangers Two – “Alexis LaFreniere ($4,200), Artemi Panarin ($8,500)” – TWO MAN ONLY

If betting on ownership, the Rangers should be the chalk of the slate. They are whopping -395 money line favorites hosting the Blackhawks, and this is where we will spend a little salary. You can remove any thoughts of a surprising season for the Blackhawks as only San Jose has been worse this season. Chicago will enter the night 2-7-1 over their last ten games, 140 goals allowed “third worst in the NHL” and recent highlights which include getting smoked 8-1 by the Dallas Stars. Turning back to the Rangers, none of their lines is riding hotter than the second line at the moment. They are second in the NHL in SATF over the last ten games.

Now turning to how to use this line, it gets a little trickier. Given that we already have Kopitar, I don’t think we’re that pressed to fill the second center spot. Vincent Trocheck has been good for $5,900 but has mainly been an assist man with only nine goals to his 24 assists. In his five of his last seven games, he’s scored under ten DraftKings points overall. I think we’re better off saving money with Alexis LaFreniere “they butchered his last name in this graphic above”. He has more goals “ten” than Trocheck and saves $1,700 in salary at $4,200. Overall, he provides us much more cost-efficient exposure to this line and this game.

Winnipeg One – ” Mark Scheifele ($6,800), Nikolaj Ehlers ($5,800)” TWO-MAN ONLY

Did someone say Sharks? Winnipeg’s top line is third among all NHL lines in SATF over the last ten games and has the potential for a huge game tonight. I don’t really think as tempting a matchup as this one is necessary to make you want to plug in Nikolaj Ehlers. He had a slow start to the season but has been compensating recently and is underpriced at the moment. Over his last nine games he’s averaging around four shots on goal per game and has a great chance for a big game tonight.

If it was possible, I wouldn’t mind using the streaky Gabriel Vilardi to fill things out; however, lineup restrictions just won’t allow it. Mark Scheifele’s numbers have been a bit overwhelming, but he is still averaging a point per game (36 in 36 games). He also fills our second center spot. He has been fairly cold over his last four games but may wake up tonight given that the Sharks have allowed the third most points to centers this season. Both Scheifele and Ehlers share additional correlation on the Jet’s first power-play unit.

1/4 NHL Defensemen and Goalie

Defensemen

Jordan Spence – Los Angeles -$2,700 – Our build only leaves $2,800 per defenseman so have to really slum it somewhere to make it all work. Spence is capable of putting up an assist on occasion “12 this season”. He also shares correlation with Trevor Moore on the King’s second power-play unit. For this price, we don’t need a whole lot more.

Will Borgen – Seattle – $2,800 – There’s many skaters in this range and little ability to distinguish one guy from the next. I think I will go with Borgen since he can get on the board a couple of ways. He has 14 points in 38 games so not horrific for a sub-$3,000 defenseman of his ilk. However, he also has the potential to block shots too to make up for things on the nights where he isn’t getting anything going at the other end.

Goalie

Jacob Markstrom – Calgary – $7,500 – We need to spend down at goalie tonight in order to fit our build so that’s one consideration. The fact we can do that and grab a goalie from one of the six total games and from only a slight underdog helps. Markstrom has been spectacular over his last seven games since returning from the IR with a .936 save percentage. His .265 GAA on the season is also stellar, my only concern here is shot volume but there’s a few other ways he can compensate for that.

1/4 NHL Best Bet

Florida ML – (+105) – DraftKings – A rematch of the finals as Florida returns to what was a house of horrors for them. However, the Panthers come in riding a five-game win streak and will be motivated to make amends at plus money odds.

Make sure to hop in our Expert Discord Chat for FREE! Rich will be there answering questions all day and all night! He is not very difficult to find on Discord with the username Rich Masana. Follow Rich on Twitter @JFan303 and be sure to be on the lookout for future articles at NHL – WIN DAILY® (windailysports.com)