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Omega European Masters Golf Betting Tips: Your DP World Tour Deep Dive

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 3 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

The DP World Tour is back in full swing with another full field event, this time with some Omega European Masters golf betting tips. And whilst the PGA Tour wrap their season this week, DP World Tour players will be looking to secure their cards for next season or even reach the season ending DP World Tour Championship.

Unfortunately, last week at the D+D Real Czech Masters the tournament was shortened to just 54 holes after a substantial amount of rain. The tournament organisers really shot themselves in the foot, allowing groups to begin their rounds Saturday despite more impending weather. Indeed, some groups were through 5 holes when play was suspended.

There was no way back from that point, as play did not return that day meaning the only feasible option was for the existing 2-balls to continue. Had some forethought been applied, start of play could have been delayed awaiting the expected weather on an already soggy course. This would have allowed 2 rounds on the Sunday, with players reassigned to 3-balls off both tees. Regretfully, common sense is never as common as desired.

This put paid to our tips for the week. 5/6 tips had made the cut and were all positioned in the top 30. There was plenty of potential for a charge up the leaderboard by one or two. Alas, circumstances prevented us ever finding out. 200/1 tip Pep Angles finishing 13th returned a nice top 20 collect.

This stunning tournament is played in the Swiss Alps at one of the most picturesque courses in the world, Crans-sur-Sierre. Who should you bet at the Omega European Masters? This is your DP World Tour deep dive with course analysis, weather forecast, and Omega European Masters golf betting tips.

Course Analysis

When thinking of golfing paradise, Crans-sur-Sierre would come pretty close in my books. This spectacular course sits 5,000ft above sea level on a lush green plateau. As a result, altitude will see the ball travel further on a course that is relatively short.

The course is a unique setup. The par-70 is reached via 5 par 3s and 3 par 5s and playing at 6,824 yards. Further, 4 par 4s are less than 400 yards. One par 5 is over 600 yards and two par 4s can play over 500 yards. On the home stretch, the 14th and 15th are back-to-back par 5s and both potentially reachable which often leads to an enthralling finish.

https://twitter.com/DPWorldTour/status/1562032401504563200?s=20&t=WMsAsZAoGfook9Ld75XQhw

Greens are extremely small. We have seen several excellent approach players do well here. Conversely, given there are several driveable par 4s (for the brave) and gettable par 5s we have also seen some bomb their way to victory. And, although most winners have had a lean towards finding fairways and greens, there are several approaches to this course that can be successful.

However, given greens will inevitably be missed, having an excellent week scrambling and putting has been a prerequisite to most winners. Short game can be extremely volatile to predict, and we have seen winners from 12/1 up to 275/1 in recent iterations.

Consequently, your list of potential names will likely be huge this week as you can make a case for so many given this diverse and interesting course. This is reflected in betting markets, with no golfer shorter than 18/1 and a huge 17 golfers at 40/1 or better. You may wish to spread exposure for the week as a result.

Weather Forecast

For weather this week, I recommend using Meteoblue who have an excellent reputation in alpine regions. Weather in these areas can be incredibly difficult to predict and changes quickly.

Thursday is expected to be sunny at 23C (73F) and relatively calm with prevailing winds expected at just 1-5mph, although some gusts up to 20mph might be seen in very late afternoon.

Friday will be overcast and slightly cooler, reaching 19C (F). Some gusts in the range of 13-18mph are expected from midday. The biggest threat across the first two days is potential Friday PM thunderstorms. Accordingly, there is a chance that this could delay play to Saturday morning, when calmer although some early morning fog is predicted.

https://www.meteoblue.com/en/weather/week/crans-sur-sierre_switzerland_2661083?day=2

https://www.windy.com/46.307/7.469?2022082412,46.199,7.469,10,m:eWlagnB

If you wanted to play a weather hedge, Thursday AM/Friday PM would be the side of the draw to play. With the perennial difficulty in predicting just how severe potential thunderstorms will end up being, I don’t think this is worth playing exclusively.

Comp Courses

Diamond Country Club – Austrian Golf Open

Real Club Valderrama – Andalucia Masters

Saujana Golf and Country Club – Maybank Championship

The Belfry – British Masters

Karen Country Club – Former host of Kenyan Open

Omega European Masters Golf Betting Tips

Headliners – Suggested Staking

Alexander Bjork
1.5pt E/W $41.00 (Bet365 8 places, 1/5 odds)
2pt Top 20 $3.40 (TAB)

Renato Paratore
1.5pt E/W $46.00 (Bet365 5 places, 1/4 odds)
2pt Top 20 $3.50 (TAB)

Marcus Helligkilde
1pt E/W $61.00 (Bet365 5 places, 1/4 odds)
2pt Top 20 $3.60 (TAB)

Marcus Kinhult
1pt E/W $61.00 (Bet365 5 places, 1/4 odds)
2pt Top 20 $3.75 (TAB)

Sebastian Soderberg
1pt E/W $81.00 (Bet365 8 places, 1/5 odds)
2pt Top 20 $4.50 (TAB)

Ashun Wu
0.5pt E/W $126.00 (Bet365 5 places, 1/4 odds)
2pt Top 20 $5.00 (TAB)

Miguel Angel Jimenez
0.5pt E/W $151.00 (William Hill 5 places, 1/4 odds)
2pt Top 20 $5.00 (Bet365)

https://twitter.com/DPWorldTour/status/1562431573365891073?s=20&t=WMsAsZAoGfook9Ld75XQhw

https://twitter.com/DPWorldTour/status/1562341441853984769?s=20&t=WMsAsZAoGfook9Ld75XQhw

Extreme Long-shots – Suggested Staking

Andrea Pavan
0.25pt E/W $251.00 (Bet365 5 places, 1/4 odds)
2pt Top 20 $9.00 (TAB)

Stephen Gallacher
0.25pt E/W $301.00 (Bet365 5 places, 1/4 odds)
2pt Top 20 $10.00 (TAB)

Zheng-Kai Bai
0.25pt E/W $401.00 (Bet365 5 places, 1/4 odds)
0.5pt Top 20 $12.00 (TAB)

https://twitter.com/DPWorldTour/status/1560590452650151941?s=20&t=WMsAsZAoGfook9Ld75XQhw

3 years ago 0 comments

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2022 BMW Championship: Your PGA Tour Deep Dive

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 3 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

What a start to the FedEx Cup playoffs! The FedEx St Jude Championship delivered an epic finish for golf fans alongside some massive profits for us. Having had multiple 2nd and 3rd place golfers in each of the three prior weeks, we saw one of our tips convert with a huge win with Will Zalatoris at 29/1.

We also had Collin Morikawa come home for 5th and a place money cash, who will be left ruing missing putts of 4ft and 6ft in his last 4 holes. And, perhaps ironically, our best return per $ spent came from Trey Mullinax who was tipped at a whopping 250/1 and duly finished 5th. To cap a fantastic week, we also tipped Ewen Ferguson to win on the DP World Tour and complete a rare trans-Atlantic double.

Wilmington Country Club plays host this week, in what is not only the first professional golf tournament hosted here but in fact the first PGA Tour event in the state of Delaware. Home course of President Joe Biden, the course is immaculately kept with a grand clubhouse sure to provide a picturesque backdrop to the tournament this week.

The stakes are high with the field cut to just the top 70. Not only does the Tour Championship provide lucrative pay checks to the top 30 and eventual FedEx Champion, but also entry to the Majors in 2023. Who should you bet at the BMW Championship? Here is your weekly golf deep dive with course analysis, weather forecast, player profiles, and golf betting tips.

Course Analysis

Wilmington Country Club is being played as the South course, although it is in fact played as a modified order. The course is a lengthy 7,534 yards par-71. A lot of this yardage falls into the par 5s measuring 582, 634, and 649 yards. It is worth noting the 634-yard 12th also has water short and therefore will take an extremely brave player to go for the green.

Further, three par 4s play over 490 yards and three of the par 3s are over 200 yards. On a typical PGA Tour course players will hit on average four approach shots over 200 yards, where we expect 7 shots to fall into that long iron range here. Two par 4s are less than 400 yards, with the 16th likely to play with forward tees for at least two rounds and be drivable. Doglegs feature in both directions and the ability to move the ball with ease is a prerequisite here.

Fairways are relatively narrow and the rough shifts from 2.5in bermudagrass last week to 4in bluegrass here. Although rough is longer in length, bluegrass tends to be a little less penal and more predictable than bermudgrass. I suspect power will be an essential element to success this week. This will come into play not just in driving distance, but the ability to move the ball forward sometimes substantial distances if finding the rough.

Greens revert to bentgrass here and are almost comically large at 8,100 sq ft. Surpassed only by the Plantation Course as host of the Sentry Tournament of Champions, those are some of the largest greens seen on tour. They will play relatively fast at 12.5 on the stimpmeter and display some of the signature undulating nature seen in other Robert Trent Jones designs.

Comp Courses and Key Metrics

Patrick Cantlay in his press conference stated: “This golf course is definitely just like last year, extremely distance biased. You’ve got to hit it as far as you can and hit a lot of fairways.” Best recipe according to him is topping the field for driving distance, but noted fairways a little narrower than Caves Valley, and then a hot putting week. He stated greens are very true, “all about finding the right line and if you hit a solid putt, it will go in”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H03kfzv_QEs

Alongside last year’s host Caves Valley, the course profiles very similar to Quail Hollow both visually and in terms of the setup of the course itself. Trump National Doral also holds some comparable features, alongside a similar scorecard and length.

The 3M Open, Rocket Mortgage Classic, and John Deere Classic all features courses with bluegrass rough and larger than average bentgrass greens. The Arnold Palmer Invitational and Genesis Invitational feature as comparisons with relatively lengthy setups combined with some of the larger greens on tour.

The key metrics I am looking for this week are driving distance, performance on approach over 200 yards, and approach putt performance. The latter accounts for the fact lag putting will play a factor for all players at some point of the tournaments. I suspect a winning score of -16 to -18 may do the trick on what on first appearance presents a slightly more penal test than previous iterations of this event.

Weather Forecast

With a condensed field and all players starting off the first tee, the weather plays less of a factor here than in other weeks. Decent enough rain in the lead-up will prevent the course getting too firm. I expect some light rain Wednesday evening, Friday evening, and during the morning on Saturday as well.

The winds appear calmest first thing in the morning before building throughout the day. The wind does not look significantly penal though, peaking at 8-10mph prevailing with gusts of 15-20mph in the afternoons.

https://www.windy.com/39.794/-75.597?39.313,-75.597,8,m:eLuad3b

Golf Betting Tips & Suggested Staking

Headliners

– Rory McIlroy 4pt E/W $13.00 (Bet365 5 places 1/4 odds)

– Scottie Scheffler 2pt E/W $21.00 (Bet365 5 places 1/4 odds)

– Joaquin Niemann 1pt E/W $41.00 (Bet365 5 places 1/4 odds)
– Joaquin Niemann 2pt Top 10 $4.50 (TAB)

Sleepers

– Cameron Davis 0.5pt E/W $76.00 (Bet365 5 places 1/4 odds)
– Cameron Davis 3pt Top 10 $6.00 (TAB)

– Keith Mitchell 0.5pt E/W $81.00 (Bet365 5 places 1/4 odds)
– Keith Mitchell 2pt Top 20 $3.88 (TAB)

– Taylor Pendrith 0.5pt E/W $101.00 (Bet365 5 places 1/4 odds)
– Taylor Pendrith 1pt Top 10 $6.50 (Bet365)

– Trey Mullinax 0.5pt E/W $126.00 (Bet365 5 places 1/4 odds)
– Trey Mullinax 2pt Top 20 $4.00 (William Hill)

– Sebastian Munoz 0.5pt E/W $141.00 (Bet365 5 places 1/4 odds)
– Sebastian Munoz 1pt Top 10 $8.50 (Bet365)

Player Profiles – Headliners

Rory McIlroy

I’ll start by saying it is incredibly rare for me to find value at the top end of the board. This week we do for a couple of reasons, and hence just three players make the headline picks here. Leading the pack is Rory McIlroy, who provides a compelling case. I’m surprised we find Rory at 13/1 when it would be unsurprising were he priced at high single figures in a smaller 70-man field.

Alongside 4th at the similar Caves Valley course, Rory has won three times at Quail Hollow alongside a runner-up finish and 9 Top 10s there. The missed cut last week holds little concern for me. Firstly, he is perhaps the best driver in the world (alongside Rahm) and lost strokes off the tee for the first time since March 2021.

I don’t expect that happens again, especially given a course last week that was not necessarily 100% suitable. Secondly, by his own admission he did not touch his golf clubs since The Open Championship and indulged in some unhealthy eating. Shaking off that rust, he still gained on approach to the field, marking 9 tournaments in a row doing so. In the prior 8 events, he has finished no worse than 19th and finished 8th or better in all 4 Majors.

Rory has won 5 FedEx Cup playoff events, beaten only by Dustin Johnson (6) and joined by Tiger Woods (4) as the only golfers with more than 2 FedEx Cup wins. He is also a two-time FedEx Cup champion. A late charge, at a course which should suit his game perfectly, would not surprise in what has been an exceptional year.

Scottie Scheffler

It was a close-run thing for the second spot in, with Scheffler just edging Rahm for value. I have a fair price on Scheffler at 15/1 in this field, so to snatch him at 21/1 is excellent value where Rahm is substantially shorter.

Missing the cut on the number last week, most of his lost strokes came from the putter with his worst putting performance since January 2021. We know how volatile a stat putting can be and starting the tournament missing 4ft and 8ft putts led to some understandable frustration. In fact, Scheffler lost -4.65 strokes putting in that first round but gained +0.76 strokes in his 2nd round in a much-improved putting performance.

Scheffler also beats Rahm in a few key metrics for me. He is 70th on tour this season for Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 71st for approach proximity from 200+ yards, and 3rd for birdie or better percentage from 200+ yards.

Having gained strokes OTT in all but one tournament this year, Scheffler also has gained on approach in his prior 13 tournaments (discount The Players under an extremely windy draw bias). Considering he spent much of his 2nd round chasing the cutline at a penal approach course to smaller greens, a quick rebound can be expected here. Having spent 23 weeks as the FedEx Cup leader, he will have the added motivation having lost that spot following Will Zalatoris’ victory last week.

Joaquin Niemann

One of the most impressive performances of the season came with Niemann decimating Riviera on his way to victory at the Genesis Invitational. Already regarded amongst the game’s elite, the supremely talented Chilean is still just 23 years old. A strong performance this week would be more than just reward for a great season.

Last week, Niemann lost strokes in his first round before finding some incredible form with his irons. Gaining +2.90, +2.11, and +1.38 on approach for the next three rounds saw him finish third in that metric for the week. This followed gaining on approach in 5/6 of his recent tournaments (4 of those by 4 strokes or more) and complimented by gaining OTT in all tournaments this year. Notably, he has gained on the field for accuracy in 2 of his last three suggesting his ball-striking is peaking at the perfect time.

That prodigious distance will come in handy here, with sitting 6th on tour this season for birdie or better percentage from 200+ yards another pointer. 3rd, 29th, and 31st at this tournament point to a level of comfort at the end of the calendar and all came in earlier seasons whilst still developing to the player we find today.

Player Profiles – Sleepers

Cameron Davis

Cam Davis arrives here off the back of 5 finishes of 16th or better. He has gained on approach at every event since the Phoenix Open back in February 2022 and gained OTT in 9/10 most recent tournaments.

Plenty long off the tee and with his irons, Davis is also quietly a decent putter and gains on the field majority of appearances (15/19 tournaments in 2022). Bentgrass also tends to be his best putting surface. Davis sits 38th on tour for Par 3 scoring 200-225 yards, 29th in approach proximity from 200+ yards, and 42nd for birdie or better percentage 200+ yards.

Davis is currently 52nd in FedEx Cup rankings and realistically needs a top 5 finish to make next week’s Tour Championship. The talented 27-year-old is certainly arriving in great form to try and mark his first appearance in the season ending tournament with a strong showing here.

Keith Mitchell

Another who is plenty long off the tee, Mitchell arrives after 4 consecutive finishes of 32nd or better and having gained on approach for 5 straight appearances. He has also gained for driving accuracy substantially in his last 2 events, again pointing to some strong fundamentals to his game of late.

Mitchell has some elite form at the comparable Quail Hollow with 3rd, 8th, and 34th (in his rookie year) for his appearances there. Mitchel is 18th on tour for par 3 scoring 200-225 yards and 41st for approach proximity and 45th birdie or better percentage at 200+ yards. Sitting 38th in the rankings, he is in a great excellent position for an inaugural appearance at the Tour Championship.

Taylor Pendrith

In an excellent rookie season, Taylor Pendrith has performed admirably well since stepping up to the PGA Tour despite a significant rib injury in March. Pendrith halted a run of 5 consecutive finishes of 13th or better last week, in a performance which reads on paper worse than it perhaps was. The majority of his strokes were lost with the putter but he was at field average for approach.

In that recent run of high-end finishes was a 2nd at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, when losing to a hot-form Tony Finau. That was an improved putting performance, gaining +4.48 strokes putting, and came on bentgrass greens as we see here this week. 26th on tour this year for birdie or better percentage from 200+ yards could see a perfect fit here.

Having gained off the tee at every tournament in 2022, Pendrith is able to maintain his extremely long distance whilst remaining accurate. It is a rare combination that could be extremely valuable this week at triple figure odds on offer.

Trey Mullinax

Having delivered for us so beautifully last week, it is hard to resist returning to Mullinax. I tipped him last week at 250/1, so being cut to 125/1 is not drastic given a 5th place and the field nearly halving here.

In that performance, he gained +6.04 strokes approach to sit 7th in the field alongside 4th for SG: T2G. Losing -1.83 strokes putting in the 4th round was what put paid to his chances, with even an average day on the greens likely to have seen him go even closer to victory.

It is somewhat understandable for a player finding himself in that position for the first time at the pointy end of the season. Mullinax has gained strokes putting in 5 straight tournaments. Notably, he is 3rd on tour for approach putt performance meaning these larger bentgrass greens hold less of a concern for me here.

Another top 20 would not surprise and, sitting 41st in FedEx Cup rankings, would see him qualify for next week’s finale. It would cap a remarkable 5 weeks. Following being informed 2 months ago that his father, who was diagnosed was stage 4 cancer, was now cancer-free it would make an emotional realisation of this long hitter’s potential.

Sebastian Munoz

Finally, I will end with a somewhat speculative play on Sebastian Munoz at big odds. Munoz has a reasonably strong record in previous BMW Championships, with 29th last year complimenting an 8th place in 2020 where he made the Tour Championship in his second year on tour.

Munoz had a massive spike on approach last week, having lost on approach in his two prior tournaments to pop when gaining +5.00 strokes. This was his best approach week since the AT&T Byron Nelson, where he finished 3rd having been the first-round leader. It was accompanied by a big jump in driving accuracy, where he does usually excel but the 15% gain was substantial. A return to bentgrass greens holds appeal for a sharp return to form here.

3 years ago 0 comments

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2022 FedEx St Jude Championship: Your PGA Tour Deep Dive

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 3 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

In an eventful week for golf in what has been an eventful year, the PGA Tour moves from the regular season to our final event with a cutline in the 2021-2022 season. The FedEx Cup playoffs is now a truncated three tournament race to further increased purses and the field is obviously stacked.

Another week at the Wyndham Championship where he had the leader throughout the first few rounds, before we wound up with the runner-up. In this case, we had Sungjae Im at 16/1 and John Huh on the card. At 175/1, the Huh place money was actually better odds than those available on Tom Kim for a historic and decisive victory.

Three consecutive weeks with our picks firmly in contention, it is only a matter of time for one of our golfers to convert for our 10th outright in 2022. Who should you bet for the FedEx Cup St Jude Championship? This is your weekly golf deep dive with course analysis, weather predictions, and golf betting tips.

Course Analysis

It is worth noting immediately that although TPC Southwind has featured on the PGA Tour since 1989, the name of the tournament has changed over the years. It is best to view history for the course rather than tournament name and also noting the event featured significantly more difficult fields when it became a WGC event in 2019. This will be the first iteration as the opening event of the play-offs and it remains to be seen how the course superintendents intend to prepare the course.

The course is a long 7,243 yards par-70 when, for perspective, we would regard 7,400 a fairly average length for a par-72. Fairways are on the narrow side and water features in abundance on the course. Rough is 2.5in bermudagrass which sounds short but we only need to look to last week to remember bermuda is more penal than other varietals and will produce flyers.

Greens feature bermudagrass and are extremely small at just 4,300 sq ft on average. With smaller greens, less reliance on putting statistics and a bump in around the green preference is obvious. A short look at those with course history tells us ball-striking, particularly approach and driving accuracy, is the key to success. Abraham Ancer, Daniel Berger, Justin Thomas, and Aaron Rai are excellent iron players and give a flavour to the ideal profile.

Relatively unique to TPC Southwind is the zoysiagrass fairways. This rare and sturdy grass is used infrequently and typically only in drier climes as it requires less water. Being a stronger grass it does have some unique characteristics. Golfers have commented that balls can sometimes be “teed” up, and other times settle down a little to produce surprise flyers. A winning score is likely to be in the -12 to -15 range.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OehJ__lbGBk

Comp Courses

The only other regular tour events with zoysia are TPC Craig Ranch (2021 and 2022 host of AT&T Byron Nelson) and East Lake Golf Club (Tour Championship host). Bellerive Country Club, host of the 2018 PGA Championship, also features zoysia fairways. It is worth noting Brooks Koepka won both that event and the 2019 FedEx St Jude Invitational here. A shame he couldn’t be here this week.

Weather Forecast

The lead in to this event has seen a lack of rain in the past few months with July one of the hottest on record. The course was likely to play extremely firm and fast. Golfers will be grateful that today (Wednesday) the course has received a decent amount of rain. More rain (albeit light drizzle) is expected Thursday.

Winds are expected to be light all week, with single digit prevailing winds and gusts only in the teens. There does not appear to be any weather draw to play.

Thursday morning may provide the softest conditions following Wednesday’s rain, it is not predicted to be a significant enough edge to play.

https://www.windy.com/35.054/-89.779?34.981,-81.969,6,m:eDAadFx

FedEx St Jude Championship Golf Betting Tips

Suggested Staking

– Will Zalatoris 2pt E/W $29.00 (Bet365 8 places 1/5 odds)
– 4pt Top 20 $2.25 (Bet365)

– Collin Morikawa 2pt E/W $34.00 (Bet365 5 places 1/4 odds)
– 4pt Top 20 $2.50 (Bet365)

– Russell Henley 1pt E/W $67.00 (Bet365 5 places 1/4 odds)
– 1pt Top 10 $6.50 (Bet365)
– 1pt Top 20 $3.30 (TAB)

– Corey Conners 1pt E/W $67.00 (Bet365 8 places 1/5 odds)
– 2pt Top 20 $3.50 (Bet365)

– Aaron Wise 0.5pt E/W $76.00 (Bet365 5 places 1/4 odds)
– 1pt Top 10 $7.00 (Bet365)
– 2pt Top 20 $3.60 (Bet365)

– Scott Stallings 0.5pt E/W $111.00 (Bet365 10 places 1/7 odds)
– 3pt Top 20 $4.33 (TAB)

– Troy Merritt 0.5pt E/W $201.00 (Bet365 5 places 1/4 odds)
– 1pt Top 10 $13.00 (TAB)
– 2pt Top 20 $6.00 (TAB)

– Tom Hoge 0.5pt E/W $161.00 (Bet365 8 places 1/5 odds)
– 3pt Top 20 $6.50 (TAB)

– Trey Mullinax 0.5pt E/W $251.00 (William Hill 8 places 1/5 odds)
– 3pt Top 40 $3.75 (TAB)

Player Profiles

Will Zalatoris

Elite ball-striking with less emphasis on putting screams Zalatoris. Gaining on approach in 17/18 strokeplay tournaments this year is obvious for even the casual fan. There are a few other indicators that jump out for me this week.

Zalatoris typically loses a little for driving accuracy on the field. He has gained on the field in his last two events and improved his approach play concurrently, suggesting positive improvements in his ball-striking. Rightly his putting has been regarded has his weakest aspect. However, this year he has gained multiple strokes putting at all US based majors this year suggesting that when the pressure is on he can lift his game. Anything above field average putting should see Zalatoris in the top 10.

Performances of 20th and 21st over the last two weeks in weaker fields is a positive for me. Neither of those courses are necessarily the best fits for him, and to see him still playing well in mediocre PGA Tour events suggests a peak for playoffs is on the cards. Especially at an event he finished 8th in last year when returning from injury and not at 100%.

Finally, Zalatoris fired his caddy mid-tournament last week. We often see a change in a player’s team result in immediate results. His caddy is his short-game coach Josh Gregory, and I can think of no one better to be on the bag. Zalatoris spoke of the benefit having Josh assist with reading putts and may just be what is needed for a win this week.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kc3uWDSNYq4

Collin Morikawa

Morikawa arrives off the back of two missed cuts and may fly under the radar this week. I immediately note that this was at the Scottish Open and The Open Championship, with unique bunkering and greens meaning this poses little concern to me. I rather focus on the fact he remains one of the best iron players on Tour, gaining over 5 strokes on approach when last sighted.

His most recent performance in mainland USA was a 5th at the US Open, which is complimented by a 5th at The Masters as well. We know Morikawa can lift for these big events and the fundamentals of his game are solid for this test with long accurate driving and precise irons.

We have previously seen him play well at end of the year, winning the season ending DP World Tour Championship in 2021 to claim both the title and the Race to Dubai.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UHIDF7avNQw

He also held a 10th there in 2020 and a 6th in 2020 at the Tour Championship, which features zoysiagrass fairways, in his first full year on tour. Morikawa will be acutely aware this is first year he has not had a win by this point. Motivation will be plentiful and a strong performance would not surprise to boost his current 22nd position on the FedEx Cup rankings.

Russell Henley

Another who profiles perfectly for TPC Southwind, Henley arrives off the back of a 10th and 5th place finish. He has hit his straps in both approach and driving accuracy, leading the field last week in approach suggesting he is peaking at the perfect time.

Henley has a 12th and 3rd in his two Tour Championship appearances on the zoysia fairways of East Lake to compliment a 7th here. Henley has a history of playing well in the first playoff event, having been first-round leader at the 2020 and 2017 Northern Trust. The question with Henley is always the putter. Noting 2/3 of his victories have come on bermudagrass provides some positive guidance, as does the Honda Classic win on a water filled course where accuracy is paramount.

Corey Conners

Sitting 29th on the FedEx Cup standings, Conners will be focused on two strong performances to ensure he makes the Tour Championship field.

A similar profile to Morikawa, Conners consistently gains on the field for driving accuracy and approach which is the precise metrics we are focused on this week. Where he lacks his the putting and around the green, but it is worth noting he has a tendency to perform better on smaller greens.

A notable example would be Harbour Town, where he form of 21-4-12 in his last three appearances. Providing an opportunity to shake off the cobwebs, the 21st last week was his first appearance in 3 weeks for a golfer where I have a fair price of 55/1.

Aaron Wise

Another who has a positive expected value in my models, the renowned iron play of Wise holds appeal on a course which should suit.

Although his first appearance on this track, Wise has a history of playing well in the opening playoff event with three made cuts from three attempts including a 5th. In his first tune up in three weeks, Wise managed a 13th at the Wyndham Championship despite not having his best week on approach. Where he did gain was on driving accuracy and putting, so any regression to his above average approach play will hold appeal here.

Scott Stallings

Entering in excellent form, Stallings arrives with 4 consecutive top 13 finishes. He is on offer at triple figures despite this, on a track he has excellent history. Stallings has 6/8 made cuts here, including a runner up. He enters in much better form than the majority of those instances, with the majority coming off missed cuts and finishes worse than 40th place.

Stallings has now gained on approach in 5 consecutive events and seen a spike in his driving accuracy for his last three weeks. The ball-striking has been excellent, and he arrives to a course he has gained on and around the greens on multiple occasions. Zoysiagrass form also adds to the credentials, with 25th and 3rd at TPC Craig Ranch in both the PGA Tour events held there thus far.

Troy Merritt

Sitting 62nd in the FedEx Cup rankings, Troy Merritt needs a good week here to ensure he can continue in the playoffs. He arrives here having gained multiple strokes on approach for three consecutive weeks and a big spike in driving accuracy.

Merritt has volatility with the putter, which is a positive. It provides upside at these odds, as the ability to spike with the putter when combined with the ball-striking suggest a serious run at the top is possible. The opportunity comes at a track where he has already finished 12th and 2nd, complimented by a 7th at TPC Craig Ranch this year.

Tom Hoge

Although the 160s I got on Hoge on opening are no longer available, he is highlighted here for transparency. He may still be available for Top 20 opportunities as well as a lower DFS play.

Hoge led the field in approach on last appearance when gaining more than 10 strokes on the field with his irons. He has now gained for three consecutive weeks on approach, and 4/5 for driving accuracy. He holds a best finish of 12th here and finished with a 17th at TPC Craig Ranch this year. With an inaugural victory coming at Pebble Beach, as well as a return of his excellent approach play, this event may come at the perfect time for him.

Trey Mullinax

Finally, a speculative play on Mullinax seems in order. Mullinax won just 4 weeks ago and has now gained on approach in three consecutive weeks. He returns to a course where he has finished 6th and 18th in bigger (albeit weaker) fields. Both of those finishes came after a string of missed cuts, so arriving here in much better form holds sufficient appeal at big odds.

3 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports

2022 Hero Open: Your DP World Tour Deep Dive

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 3 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

It was another week of profit for us on the DP World Tour at the Cazoo Classic. Paul Waring secured a FRL for us at $60.00, Garrick Porteous a full FRL placing at $28.50 sitting in 2nd after round 1, and Richard Mansell shared 4th place for a dead-heat payout on the place money of $8.25.

Having already secured profit for the week, Waring proceed to lead throughout the first two rounds. He eventually finished a commendable 2nd, with Richie Ramsay sinking a clutch finish with an up and down on 17 for birdie and an 8 footer for par to deny Waring a chance of a playoff.

A full place payout for Waring’s sole second place at equivalent odds of $14.20 somewhat easing the near miss for our 10th outright winner of the year. Garrick Porteous was tipped at huge odds of $200.00 and duly returned an extremely close run, eventually cashing a Top 20 ticket for us at $8.50.

Links golf season continues with a return to St Andrews, this time on the Torrance Course at Fairmont St Andrews. I am loving the links so far, as it always provides a tough but also unique challenge. And, of course, provides plenty of opportunities to hone in on links specialist at good values.

Who should you be betting for the Hero Open? This is your weekly golf deep dive, course analysis, weather forecast, player profiles, and Hero Open predictions.

Course Analysis

Overlooking the beautiful Firth of Forth coastline, the Torrance Course provides a classic links test despite only being built in 2001. The 7,230 yards par-72 features a traditional divide of 4 par 3s and 4 par 5s, with your typical pot bunkers waiting to trap shots in abundance.

The clifftop holes will provide some of the most picturesque holes, as well as the most imposing. In typical links fashion, the course is barren of trees and golfers will be at the full whim of any winds. Keeping the tee shots and irons low and using the firm fairways is the recipe to success.

We hold a little bit of data with previous tournaments here. The course hosted the 2021 rendition of this tournament, as well as the 2020 Scottish Challenge during a COVID affected year. The course has also played host to a number of qualifying tournaments for The Open Championship, which is a little more hidden and won’t be found by many others as takes some searching to find.

https://twitter.com/DPWorldTour/status/1552292739340873728?s=20&t=SMY_yU973apUghikQ6FmjQ

For similar links style courses, refer to my 150th Open Championship write-up for some ideas where to find comp courses. Last week’s Cazoo Classic also should provide some fair guidance.

Weather Forecast

As noted, on these exposed links style courses it is worth remembering that a lower breeze here should be given more weight. There are little to no trees to protect against the wind. 10 mph on a parkland course vs a links course are not the same thing. You should interpret forecasts accordingly.

Thursday AM should see mild winds of 6-10mph prevailing and gusts of 10-13mph. These winds should peak around 1-2pm at prevailing winds of 7-11mph and 10-15mph gusts. Winds will then decrease as the afternoon continues.

Friday AM presents the calmest conditions of the first two days. Some rain is forecast overnight Thursday, so the course should hopefully play a little softer and more receptive. Perfect still conditions are predicted, with prevailing winds of 1-5mph and gusts of 5-7mph. Friday PM these winds will increase to 10-15mph prevailing and 17-20mph gusts.

This leads to an edge for Thursday PM/Friday AM starters. Further preference goes to those going out earliest on Thursday afternoon, as they will benefit from the best of the conditions on Friday morning. Should forecast stay true to predictions, then those in these groups will need to go low on Friday AM.

Golf Betting Tips

Suggested Staking

Callum Shinkwin 1pt E/W $31.00 (Bet365, 5 places 1/4)
Callum Shinkwin 2pt Top 20 $2.88 (TAB)

David Law 1pt E/W $36.00 (Bet365, 5 places 1/4)
David Law 2pt Top 20 $3.00 (Bet365)

Justin Walters 1pt E/W $67.00 (Bet365, 8 places 1/5)
Justin Walters 2pt Top 20 $4.00 (Bet365)

Garrick Porteous 1pt E/W $71.00 (Bet365, 8 places 1/5)
Garrick Porteous 2pt Top 20 $4.33 (TAB)

Connor Syme 1pt E/W $76.00 (Bet365, 8 places 1/5)
Connor Syme 2pt Top 20 $4.33 (Bet365)

Jack Senior 0.5pt E/W $81.00 (Bet365, 8 places 1/5)
Jack Senior 2pt Top 20 $4.50 (Bet365)

Lucas Bjerregaard 0.5pt E/W $111.00 (Bet365, 8 places 1/5)
Lucas Bjerregaard 2pt Top 20 $8.00 (TAB)

Player Profiles

Callum Shinkwin

Having backed Shinkwin last week, where he produced a 16th place finish to give us a good run, there is little need to change the plan here.

The 16th last week follows a decent links course history, including another 16th on this course in 2021. Scottish form is also prevalent, with a play-off loss in 2017 at the Scottish Open in just his 2nd year on tour.

Shinkwin has the ability to spike with the putter and drives it plenty long. His better approach performances have come on links style courses. He has now gained or been at average for approach in his last 3 tournaments, having been losing multiple strokes prior, as well as for driving accuracy suggesting the return to form was brewing as predicted last week. I’m happy to follow him again.

David Law

With Scot Richie Ramsay securing the win last week, other Scottish players are sure to feel a sense of pride upon returning to St Andrews. Ewen Ferguson eluded to such in an article earlier this week:

https://www.europeantour.com/dpworld-tour/news/articles/detail/ewen-ferguson-player-blog/

We backed Law earlier in the season after starting to see some resurgence in his game. He returned a 65 opening round to be one shot off FRL, followed by another subpar round in the windy conditions to be right in contention. I have started to see tell-tale signs again in his performances, gaining strokes approach in his last 4 events and SG: OTT at or above average in his last 6 appearances. I also love he is in the first group out Friday morning to hopefully make the most of the best conditions on offer this week.

https://twitter.com/GolfChannel/status/1547655913888092160?s=20&t=SMY_yU973apUghikQ6FmjQ

He qualified for The Open after a stellar finish to score a 4th at the Irish Open. The two most recent appearances were then the Scottish Open and The Open Championship. Making the cut in both events is noteworthy given the strength of field was so much higher than on offer here. He won in Scotland in 2018 at the Scottish Hydro Challenge. To cap the narrative, Law has finished 4th and 33rd in his two appearances here:

https://www.europeantour.com/dpworld-tour/news/video/david-law-i-m-looking-forward-to-the-week/

Justin Walters

Walters rates as one of my best value plays for the week, returning a fair value of 55/1 when compared to the 66/1 on offer. Having competed in the Barbasol Championship and Barracuda Championship, a return to the lower levels of the DP World Tour will be welcomed. He managed one cut out of those two events, which is commendable, and prior to that appeared for 20th at the Irish Open.

Walters possesses excellent links form as is often seen from South African golfers. The firm fairways and windy, exposed courses are akin to many courses in the motherland. Albeit, a few degrees colder in comparison. Walters has quietly put together one of his better seasons, finishing in the Top 20 in 26% of his starts. He returns to a course he holds finishes of 16th and 8th in two appearances.

Garrick Porteous

The drop from the 200/1 I tipped him at last week to the 70/1 is tough to swallow. However, it is justified and I am happy to continue in the vein of ‘if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it”.

Porteous was in 2nd after the first round last week, starting with an excellent 65. The eventual 16th finish marked a bounce back, having missed the cut the start prior at the Barbasol comingled tournament. Porteous has now gained on approach in three straight tournaments as well as for driving accuracy in all three recent apperances.

He arrives after that 16th place to a course where he holds excellent form of a 4th and 10th place finish. The odds still represent value in another weak field for a player with incoming form, recent course history, and improving metrics.

Connor Syme

This was perhaps my easiest click of the week. I’ve backed Syme earlier this year, having seen some key markers in his game. Arriving here after a short break back home in Scotland and his friend Richie Ramsay having recently won.

On last outing, he gained a massive 5.84 strokes on approach to the strong Scottish open field. He has the ability to spike with the putter and usually as an excellent short-game. This could prove useful with links golf often required some measure of scrambling. Gaining strokes OTT is also a positive, including for both distance and accuracy at the tricky and windy Scottish Open.

Another with some hidden form here, Syme finished 2nd at this course in 2019 Open Championship Qualifying behind Brandon Wu. The 67-67 rounds, with 36 holes in one day, saw him secure one of the three tickets to Portrush on offer.

https://twitter.com/DPWorldTour/status/1552011362808856576?s=20&t=SMY_yU973apUghikQ6FmjQ

Jack Senior

Another who we tipped recently, Senior is regarded as a links specialist on the DP World Tour. We saw a flash of form last week, with an opening 67 to sit inside the top 10 after the first round.

Senior consistently gains putting and around the green. Last week’s performance was his 2nd consecutive week gaining on approach, having previously been losing multiple strokes in this metric.

Three of Jack Senior’s professional wins have come on links courses. He won the 2014 Scottish Masters and the 2015 Scottish Hydro Challenge for local form. The other links win came in a 2019 win at the ISPS Handa World Invitational, beating fellow links specialist Matthew Baldwin in Northern Ireland.

Senior was the first round leader at the Scottish Open in 2021, eventually finishing 10th there. It is reasonable to expect another strong Scottish performance arriving this week in better form.

Lucas Bjerregaard

Finally, I’ll end my tips with the sole choice from the Thursday AM groups. Bjerregaard has fantastic links form across a number of comp courses. He won the 2018 Alfred Dunhill Links, 5th at the links course at Sicily Open, and a 2nd/9th/12th/20th/27th at Dom Pedro. He was the 2nd round leader by two shots here last year, eventually finishing 10th.

No stranger to big occasions, Bjerregaard shocked Tiger Woods at the 2019 Matchplay when ranking in the top 50 in the world.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CZa7F6XyuRQ

Finishes of 27th and 59th on the last two outings were at the Barbasol Championship and Barracuda Championship in the PGA Tour comingled events. That completed breaking a dreadful run of 8 missed cuts. A drop back to the DP World Tour is very welcomed. It will be on a course where he has shown flashes of brilliance. Most notably, during his 2021 opening round with a course record 62.

I hope you enjoyed this article provide to you for FREE this week. If you would like to read our tips and deep dive on the Rocket Mortgage Classic, sign-up here for a free two week trial: https://windailysports.com/sign-up/deep-dive-golf/

Rocket Mortgage Analysis and predictions: https://windailysports.com/2022-rocket-mortgage-classic-your-pga-tour-deep-dive/?ref=31

3 years ago 0 comments

Sports Betting PGA Premium

2022 Rocket Mortgage Classic: Your PGA Tour Deep Dive

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 3 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Another tournament in the books and the 3M Open was just as volatile as promised on paper. Scott Piercy was dominant and looked unbeatable for 61 holes, then managed to play the final 11 holes of the tournament in 7 over. When water poses such a significant danger on practically every hole, the increased winds on Sunday evening proved too much for Piercy along with our tips for the week finding the drink a few times too many.

14/1 favourite Tony Finau finally polished off a win after what has been an excellent season for him. A third PGA Tour victory seems low for a player of his evident talents, although 3 playoff runner-up finishes should always be considered with the volatility that comes in one hole of golf. Fortunately, another good week on the DP World Tour kept the books ticking over.

The PGA Tour is well and truly in countdown mode towards the FedEx Cup playoffs. Many players will be aiming to jump as far up the standings as possible and qualify for the lucrative Tour Championship. Others are playing for their career, hoping to retain their tour card without the battle of being demoted to the Korn Ferry Tour. There really is everything to play for this week.

Perhaps my highlight of the week has already occurred. The SG: Narrative line-up I proposed was so masterfully brought to life by Sia’s extremely talented wife Gigi. If you’ve not watched it already, you can find the clip here:

https://twitter.com/deepdivegolf/status/1551591004171833344?s=20&t=xlN1vOxLbYOxMgM-eKap_A

https://twitter.com/SiaNejad/status/1551635713585717249?s=20&t=xlN1vOxLbYOxMgM-eKap_A

Along with plenty of play for, there are some great opportunities out there this week to target. Who should you bet at the Rocket Mortgage Classic? Here is your weekly golf deep dive, course analysis, weather forecast, and your Rocket Mortgage Classic Predictions.

Course Analysis

Detroit Golf Club plays host this week as a 7,370 yards par-72 and has played as one of the easiest stops on tour since it’s addition in 2019. This Donald Ross design is technically a composite course, consisting of a slightly amended order of holes to the typical member layout.

The course offers little defense, with just the one water hazard in play. Bunkering is used throughout, both on fairways and around the green complexes. The fairways themselves are some of the widest on tour with a width of 34 yards at the 325-yard mark. Rough is 4 inches thick, which is fairly punitive, yet given the majority of golfers will be closer to the green this mitigates some of the penalty. In fact, this course features a far higher percentage of shots between 50-150 yards than the PGA Tour average.

The greens are above average size at 5,150 sq ft and often two tiered. As is typical of Ross courses, they are often slanted from front to back meaning spin control is imperative. They have previously been heavily watered, given the heat in Detroit over summer, so are soft and are a fairly mundane 10.5 on the stimpmeter.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vh09K0f2gK0

For mine, there are two clear paths to victory here. Firstly, the bomb and gouge technique. Simply hit the ball as close to the green as possible and get a wedge in hand. The alternative is laying back and avoiding fairway bunkers, with driving accuracy at more of a premium. Approach play should mainly be considered in the 50-150 yards bracket. We have seen both styles be successful here in the past. Either way, the winner will be expected to make a huge number of putts to keep up with the low scoring.

Sedgefield Country Club provides an obvious comp course. Not only does the other Donald Ross design on tour play host to the subsequent tournament in next week’s Wyndham Championship, but it also features a similar shot profile as can be expected here. The other would be TPC Deere Run, again hosting the John Deere Classic recently but also offering wide fairways, requiring skilled wedge play, and demanding low scoring. Expect a winning total of between -19 to -23 this week.

Weather Forecast

At time of writing, I continue to see a decent edge to the Thursday AM tee-times. As you will know from my previous articles, I do like to play a weather advantage aggressively. I will also tell you that this week appears to be one of the more significant edges so far this year if the weather holds true to current predictions.

Thursday morning will provide calm conditions with prevailing winds of 5-9mph and gusts of 11-20mph as the morning develops. By 1pm, we can expect that all to change. Thursday PM is currently forecast for prevailing winds of 15-19mph but gusts showing up to 34-38mph with the worst of the wind either side of 2pm.

Friday AM should again deliver still conditions with prevailing winds of 4-9mph and gusts of 12-18mph. Friday PM will be a little windier, but not to the extent seen on Thursday PM. Prevailing winds of 8-16mph and gusts of 20-24 mph are currently forecast.

https://www.windy.com/42.428/-83.121?icon,42.425,-83.104,14,m:ePRadQC

For the players who make the cut, Saturday and Sunday offer very calm conditions and scoring should be very low. Expect this to be highly volatile. It is feasible a golfer could make a charge from quite far back. Two incredibly low rounds on the homeward stretch is certainly possible.

I will be playing 100% Thursday AM groups for both betting and DFS purposes, with my current predictions of an average of 1.5-2.0 stroke advantage to those groups.

Golf Betting Tips

Suggested Staking

Denny McCarthy 1pt E/W $46.00 (Bet365, 5 places 1/4)
Denny McCarthy 2pt Top 20 $3.30 (Bet365)

Webb Simpson 1pt E/W $46.00 (Bet365, 5 places 1/4)
Webb Simpson 2pt Top 20 $3.40 (Bet365)

Si Woo Kim 1pt E/W $51.00 (Bet365, 8 places 1/5)
Si Woo Kim 2pt Top 20 $3.50 (Bet365)

Taylor Pendrith 1pt E/W $67.00 (Bet365, 8 places 1/5)
Taylor Pendrith 2pt Top 20 $4.00 (Bet365)

Danny Willett 0.5pt E/W $91.00 (Bet365, 8 places 1/5)
Danny Willett 2pt Top 20 $5.50 (TAB)

Patrick Rodgers 0.5pt E/W $101.00 (Bet365, 8 places 1/5)
Patrick Rodgers 2pt Top 20 $5.25 (Bet365)

Matt Wallace 0.5pt E/W $151.00 (Bet365, 8 places 1/5)
Matt Wallace 2pt Top 20 $7.50 (TAB)

Player Profiles

Denny McCarthy

Nothing screams “putting contest” more than taking the golfer who leads the field for SG: Putting over the last 3, 6, 12, and 24 months. The 29-year-old Denny has been having his best year on tour, finishing in the top 20 in 40% of this starts this year.

The majority of that can be put down to his always excellent putting now being complimented by improvements in his approach play. Both his SG: Approach and Driving Accuracy are now consistently surpassing field average. He holds an excellent record at Sedgefield CC with form of 36-22-9-15 and has a 21st here in 2019. All of that came when he was worse form than we find him now.

A 6th placed finish last time out at the John Deere Classic saw him 6th in the field for SG: Approach and 4th for Driving Accuracy. If anything, he had a “below average” tournament with the putter “only” finishing 29th in the field. This was atypical and is his “worst” putting performance since April.

You’ll note I use these terms very loosely. But it simply affirms that a continuation of the ball-striking, combined with anything near his typical putting, should see him a force to be reckoned with this week.

Webb Simpson

I am happy to get back on the Webb Simpson train this week, which I am sure will come to much delight of Spencer. Webb’s affinity with the Wyndham Championship (and Donald Ross designed Sedgefield CC) is well-known. He also holds an 8th place here in 2020.

Webb needs that form now more than ever. After an injury plagued start to the season and average form, he is currently “bubble boy”125th for FedEx Cup standings. Given, there are several LIV Golf players above him who will be removed from the field. But he certainly won’t be comfortable with where he is entering the end of the year. And there are many other players behind him also playing to keep their card.

We have been tracking some return to form for Webb as of late, as he is obviously far more talented than his current standings suggest. Despite the subpar season, he still ranks out 36th on Tour for approaches 50-125 yards this season and 5th on tour for birdie or better percentage when approaching the green from <125 yards.

Of his 7 PGA Tour victories, 6 have come at scores of -15 or lower and strong performances at other shorter courses are easily found. When he adds his 8th title, the odds available will no doubt return to their usual spot in the 20s.

Si Woo Kim

Kim arrives here having taken a week of rest to recover from his best finish at The Open, ending up 15th around St Andrews.

He has a propensity to win at these shootout events, with 2 of his 3 tour victories coming at -23 at The American Express and -21 at the similar Wyndham Championship. Alongside that win around Sedgefield CC are finishes of 5th, 3rd, and 2nd (losing in a playoff) at the last three iterations. Si Woo clearly peaks at this time of year.

Two of his victories also came after a period of missed cuts, a spike the tournament prior for a top 25 finish from seemingly nowhere, a two-week break, and then a win on next appearance. That is precisely what we find again here, on a course that should suit his game well and comparative performances on similar courses.

Taylor Pendrith

In contrast, Pendrith sits firmly in the bomb and gouge camp. Having broken a rib during practise at The Players Championship (where he astonishingly still finished 13th), he returned 4 months later and has continued right where he left off with finishes of 13th and 11th in his two appearances since.

Pendrith ticks a lot of the boxes Bryson did prior to his win here. Over his last 30 rounds, Pendrith sits 10th in this field for SG:T2G and 5th for SG: OTT. The majority of that is coming from his extreme driving distance. However, he does beat the field for driving accuracy occasionally and particularly on shorter courses where he can club down.

Surprisingly, Pendrith also often gains strokes on the field around the green. It is a rare and dangerous combo for a long hitter. His approach stats should be read in context as he sits 60th on tour for Approach Proximity from 50-125 yards. Although this will be his first appearance here, he does display many of the elements required to dominate this layout.

Danny Willett

I am happy to take a small stake on Willett here, given the context which he arrives. All be told, it has been a below average season for Willett. What that means is he is at risk of losing his card on both sides of the pond, sitting outside automatic retention on both the PGA and DP World tours.

Willett makes most of his strokes putting and around the green. We have seen his poor approach play this year return to field average the last two tournaments. When combined with gaining on the field for driving accuracy, it is suggesting a turn in form for his ball-striking.

It is not the first time we have seen Willett leave it to the last minute, as well as perform well under the highest of pressures. He won the Alfred Dunhill Links in October 2021, won the BMW PGA Championship and finished 5th at the season ending DP World Tour Championship in 2019, and won that same tournament in 2018 on the DP World Tour.

In 2020, he arrived at the Rocket Mortgage Classic after three missed cuts to suddenly finish 4th and make the playoffs. And, of course, the Masters victory was complimented by popping for a 12th place finish this year.

This year, he arrives on the back of a 7th place finish last week. He still sits outside the top 125 to retain his card and make the playoffs. He will be desperate to do so. I am willing to speculate that the narrative continues, and he can rise to the challenge as previously.

Patrick Rodgers

Sia has sold me on Rodgers. I’m in. The beauty with Rodgers is he can deliver the required excellent putting to win this week, but also carries a ton of distance off the tee. He has been at or above field average for driving accuracy in 7 of his last 8 tournaments. It’s a great recipe.

The missed cut last appearance at the Scottish Open can easily be dismissed given the unique challenge links golf presents. Rodgers lost 4 strokes approach in his first round, and rebounded to gain 3.6 strokes in the 2nd round missing the cut by 2 shots. For his appearance on a true links course, it is easily forgivable.

Prior to that, we saw Rodgers gaining more than 4 strokes on approach at the wedge-fest in the John Deere Classic where he has also finished 2nd before. Rodgers’ two appearances and two cuts made here, with finishes in the mid-40s, should also be read in context. They came off the back of arriving off a 76th and the prior year off two missed cuts.

Rodgers has gained massively putting in 6 of his last 8 appearances, gained OTT in 7/8, and gained SG: Approach in 5/8 with the approach play also trending in the positive direction of late. He ticks the box of driving it long and putting well and is at triple figure odds. Yes please.

Matt Wallace

Finally, I’ll wrap up this week with another play in similar vein to Willett. Wallace stands to lose his card on both tours should he not improve in these coming weeks. And he is a golfer of high talent, with 10 professional wins, who should not be in that position.

Having started the season in abysmal form, Wallace missed 6 consecutive cuts between February-April to begin the year. A mid-year return to play a couple of tournaments on the DP World Tour did return some confidence for him. He finished 5th and 18th in those two events before returning to the PGA Tour and finishing 35th at the Canadian Open in a high-class field.

Wallace popped up again for a 25th last week, despite two double bogeys on the cards. He won’t face anywhere near the danger off the tee this week. I am happy instead to look at his improved approach play, as well as gaining 4 strokes putting on the field. That marks gaining strokes putting in 5/7 of his recent appearances.

A 12th in his sole appearance here in 2020 came off a run of MC-64-MC and suggests he is at a minimum somewhat partial to the track. Following up last week’s 25th with another top 20 is certainly feasible. For his career trajectory, it is vital.

3 years ago 0 comments

Sports Betting PGA Premium

2022 3M Open Golf Betting Tips: Your PGA Tour Deep Dive

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 3 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

What a whirlwind the last few months of golf have been! With major season drawing to a close mixed in with a fair amount of LIV Golf drama and speculation added in for good measure. The 150th Open Championship delivered as promised with one of the most intriguing final days we have seen this year.

You have to feel for Rory McIlroy. Although he did little wrong on the final day, he also did little right. In one of his strongest major performances of late, he hit every green in regulation on Sunday but two-putted every green. The putts were mere inches away on most occasions, with perhaps the putt on the 3rd hole the only glaring miss. The difference between success and defeat at this level are incredibly small, and it felt we were denied one of the greatest moments in golfing history by the slimmest of margins.

It was another successful major for us, thanks to securing a full place payout on Tommy Fleetwood alongside Top 20s on outsiders Adam Scott and Dean Burmester at juicy odds. And although major season is over, we now have the intrigue of what golfers will secure their card for next year or even a ticket to the FedEx Cup playoffs. Who should you bet for the 3M Open? This is your weekly golf deep dive, course analysis, weather, and 3M Open golf betting tips.

Course Analysis

TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota plays host this week as it has done since this tournament was upgraded from a Champions Tour event to the main PGA Tour in 2019. Playing as a 7,431 yard par-71 on the books, it is worth noting that the course is at a slight altitude and should play a little shorter than it appears.

Although two out of three renditions have been won by notable long-hitters, this comes with the caveat that the penalty for missing wide can be severe with water in abundance and 4in Kentucky bluegrass rough has been grown out this week.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yBuT-9QbiP4

Fairways are generous, but stray too far and losing multiple strokes to the field is a very real possibility. The bentgrass greens are also very generous, with average size of 6,500 sq ft. Expect a highly volatile week, where players can make anything from an eagle to double bogey on the same hole.

In terms of comparable courses, PGA National provides the most obvious case. Although scoring tends to be higher than here, the potential penalty off the tee aspect remains at both. It has displayed good correlation to prior leaderboards here, where 2020 winner Michael Thompson has won at both with a smattering of similar place finishes for other players. Likewise, TPC Sawgrass provides a similar profile to here with a focus on driving accuracy.

TPC Deere Run should provide good guidance, being a shorter and low scoring course in neighbouring Illinois. John Deere Classic has also produced similar numbers in terms of driving distance vs driving accuracy when compared to prior renditions at TPC Twin Cities. It also has the same bentgrass greens running at 12 on the stimpmeter, and 4 inch Kentucky bluegrass rough. Finally, Detroit Golf Club as host of the Rocket Mortgage Classic provides a low scoring venue where Bryson DeChambeau and Matthew Wolff have swapped 1st/2nd in 2019 and 2020 at both events.

Weather Analysis

Thursday AM should provide calm conditions with prevailing winds of 6-10mph and gusts of 12-16 mph. The wind should build around midday, with Thursday PM reaching prevailing winds of 13-17mph with gusts up to 28-30mph.

Friday AM should see winds of 4-7mph prevailing with 14-17mph gusts. This may begin to build from as early as 10am, with winds peaking at 10-12mph and gusts of 19-24mph before decreasing as the afternoon goes on. Original predictions of thunderstorms on Friday afternoon are decreasing but a small chance does remain.

Should weather remain as currently forecast, I am currently predicting an advantage of 1-1.5 stroke advantage to Thursday AM/Friday PM tee-times. As regular readers will know, I have a willingness to take on the risk that comes from a weather forecast and all my golf betting tips this week are made accordingly.

Golf Betting Tips

Suggested Staking

Maverick McNealy 2pt E/W $23.00 (William Hill, 8 places 1/5 odds)
C.T. Pan 1pt E/W $60.00 (Bet365, 5 places 1/4 odds)
Matthew NeSmith 1pt E/W $60.00 (Bet365, 8 places 1/5 odds)
Dylan Frittelli 1pt E/W $66.00 (Bet365, 8 places 1/5 odds)
Troy Merritt 1pt E/W $70.00 (William Hill, 8 places 1/5 odds)
Matthias Schwab 1pt E/W $81.00 (Bet 365 8 places 1/5 odds)

Player Profiles

Maverick McNealy

It is always worthy to proceed with caution to the top of the odds board at events with higher volatility and a weaker field than usual. However, I simply bypass the claims McNealy holds here.

McNealy arrives here off the back of an 8th at the neighbouring John Deere Classic, 16th in one of the strongest fields all season at the Scottish Open, and 9th last week at the Barracuda Championship. Although that 9th should have perhaps been better with an average Sunday performance, this is fairly elite incoming form for this field.

Alongside the most recent 8th at the John Deere, he also holds an 18th there in 2021 and 44th when still an amateur in 2017. 11th at the 2020 Honda Classic, 8th and 21st at the Rocket Mortgage, and 16th at the 2021 edition of this tournament all suggest this is a track that will suit.

McNealy rates out 12th in birdie or better percentage in what has the potential to be a low scoring affair, combined with recent metrics of 3/3 gaining multiple strokes putting, 5/5 gaining around the green, 3/3 gaining OTT in both driving distance and accuracy, and his approach play being at field average or better in 4/5.

It all builds a compelling case where anything outside a finish towards the top end of the leaderboard would shock.

C.T. Pan

In a field lacking a little depth, C.T. Pan rates as just too high a value on this occasion to skip. C.T. Pan arrives here having gained on approach at 11/12 usually by multiple strokes, 6/8 gaining off the tee with majority from accuracy, and having gained with the putter in 5/6. Now at 11 made cuts from his last 13 appearances, the ball-striking is particularly consistent and with the putter now also looking like it is trending another promising sign.

The Olympic bronze medal winner Pan finished 16th in the Honda Classic at PGA National earlier this year, having also finished 3rd there in 2021 and 17th in 2018. Winner at the RBC Heritage, 2nd at Sedgefield Country Club, and bouncing back from a missed cut to finish 24th last time out at the John Deere Classic suggest that should he bring his best he can outperform the odds on offer.

Matthew NeSmith

Since popping up to contend when 3rd at the Valspar Championship, NeSmith has quietly been putting together a rather excellent season. Majority of this has come thanks to his excellent approach play and OTT, where he sits 9th and 12th respectively in this field over the last 3 months. 8th for SG: T2G and 14th for SG: Total, NeSmith is flying under the radar here.

The missed cut at the Scottish Open can be forgiven being a first attempt at links golf in a very strong field. NeSmith sits 52nd on tour this season for apex height, which does not necessarily bode well in a setup demanding a lower ball flight. On the softer and large greens offered up here, is ability to gain multiple strokes on approach should provide plenty of opportunities.

Three for three in made cuts at the tougher PGA National setup, he also has made the cut at both John Deere and Rocket Mortgage. Although results have been somewhat middling, they all came in earlier seasons coming off missed cuts and when in lesser form than we find him here. Yet to win on the PGA Tour, his Korn Ferry Tour victory also came at altitude in Boise, Idaho. I am happy to take NeSmith here at odds, whilst this 28-year-old is still on the rise.

Dylan Frittelli

The 2019 John Deere Classic winner is sitting at 103rd on the FedEx Cup rankings, so Frittelli should be safe if not feeling 100% comfortable. The links between TPC Deere Run has already been discussed, so another decent finish when 30th there recently holds appeal as does made cuts with a 47th at the Scottish Open alongside 28th last time out at The Open.

That should build some confidence for a golfer who is 13/14 in made cuts recently. 8th at the Valero Texas Open came in windy conditions on a course with wide fairways but also danger if straying too far into waste areas. His driving accuracy has been improving of late alongside gaining strokes on approach, suggesting an upward trajectory for his ball-striking.

Alongside the win at the John Deere Classic an 11th and 16th at PGA National, three made cuts at TPC Sawgrass, and an 18th here in 2020 all suggest a track where an above average performance would not surprise.

Troy Merritt

Merritt managed an impressive 30th last time out at the Scottish Open, with his approach particularly eye-catching gaining 7.6 strokes with the irons to be 4th in the field in that metric. Considering he is sitting 4th in this field for SG: Putting over the last 3 months, it could prove a dangerous combination for a prolific birdie maker.

Troy Merritt was first-round leader here last year when opening with a 64 and still holds close ties to the area having grown up in Minnesota. He has previously spoken of his knowledge of the course having played several times as an amateur, and his altitude links having attended college in Boise also holds appeal.

4th and 12th earlier this year at the Valero Texas Open and RBC Heritage are not the worst comparisons to here, with Troy holding a 7th in 2019 and 39th in 2021. A 2nd and 8th in the last two editions of the Rocket Mortgage Classic also points to a golfer who often performs best towards this end of the season.

Matthias Schwab

I really like the chances of Schwab this week. Sitting 112th in FedEx Cup standings in his first full season on the PGA Tour, this former DP World Tour player has every incentive to play well this week. On the DP World Tour, his consistent top 10 finishes in some of that tour’s best events saw him move over to the USA where he has made the transition with some mild success.

When we delve deeper into his better performances this year, they have all come on similar tracks to here. 32nd in 2020 came when making an appearance whilst still playing on the lower DP World Tour. This year, finishes of 7th at the Honda Classic and 16th at the John Deere Classic have been some of his best results of the year. Again, an 8th at Valero Texas Open is far from the worst comparison in a field stronger than on offer this week.

Schwab now arrives gaining on approach in 3/3 tournaments, gaining on driving accuracy in 3/4 tournaments, and gaining in driving distance in 4/4. When combined with his excellent short-game and his ability to spike with the putter, there is plenty of upside on offer at good odds.

3 years ago 0 comments

PGA Sports Betting Premium

2022 Genesis Scottish Open Golf Betting Tips: Your Weekly Golf Deep-Dive

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 3 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Another winner! What a run we have been on of late. We secured our 9th outright winner of the year as we picked up back-to-back winners with J.T. Poston going wire-to-wire for us at the John Deere Classic at 50/1. Of course, following on from the 65/1 hit on Haotong Li the week prior we now have a three-peat on the cards at this week’s Scottish Open.

To compliment the win, we also had Fabrizio Zanotti at the Irish Open who held the lead at various points of the tournament and entered the final round just one shot back. Eventually finishing 4th, we cashed bets on a place pay out of $13.17 (after ties) and a Top 10 at $8.00 odds.

Various others featured throughout the tournaments. At the John Deere, Cam Davis was 8th and Mark Hubbard 13th to come agonisingly close to place payouts. In Ireland, Sami Valimaki finished with a final round -7 and contended for a Top 20 having been tipped at triple-figure odds as did Sean Crocker. Ewen Ferguson was one shot off the lead midway through the 2nd round before one errant drive ended in an unplayable position. Back to the tee, in what led to a quadruple bogey, and an unfortunate tumble from 5th to missing the cut on the number mainly resulting from that one poor shot. Golf can be a game of the finest of margins.

An exciting event at the Scottish Open this week in one of the strongest fields of the year, with 14 of the world’s top 15 players present. Long planned before LIV Golf came on the scene, this week is a co-sanctioned event between the PGA Tour and the DP World Tour at a very welcome time following a rather lacklustre LIV event in Portland. Who should you bet for the Scottish Open? This is your weekly golf deep dive and golf betting tips.

Course Analysis

The Scottish Open this week is held at The Renaissance Club. This Tom Doak design is traditionally a 7,237-yard par-71. However, this week sees the par-5 7th hole reduced to a very long 505-yard par-4. With a fair chunk of yardage also eaten up by two of the five par-3s being very short (147-yards and 161-yards), this means many reasonably long par-4s greet the players this week. This will see a disproportionate number of shots played at over 200 yards, so proximity to pin for approaches over 200 yards is certainly part of the receipt to success here.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_-AxrdWym3Q

Typical links features abound with large undulating greens, fescue grass running much slower as well as hiding multiple breaks, and deep pot bunkers. As with all links courses, scrambling and putting will be essential with missing greens an inevitability. Rough can be thick with extremely long fescue in places and hitting a flyer a real risk if missing the fairway. Additional bunkering has also been added to several fairways, so a bomb and gouge strategy is not necessarily the sole path to victory.

I was able to ask Will Zalatoris about his thoughts on the course this year. He commented it will certainly play more difficult with those additional bunkers adding a challenge off the tee, keeping the ball in the fairway at a premium, and the higher winds expected. A winning score of the likes seen in 2021 and 2019 seems very unlikely, and something between 12-16 under seems realistic.

https://twitter.com/DPWorldTour/status/1544605855558971392?s=20&t=fXye1105CjUvig_Nms5WJg

Weather

It looked for some time like a weather advantage may develop. However, as the week has gone on, it has become apparent that no significant edge to the draw seems to exist (although finding wind-positive players will be essential).

Thursday AM should provide some of the softest conditions of the week, with rain Wednesday along with the normal morning dew benefiting the early risers. Prevailing winds of 11-12mph and gusts between 15-18mph will be brisk enough. Thursday PM will see winds increase, as well as the ground drying out and becoming firmer as the day develops. Winds will peak at prevailing 16-21mph and gusts of 22-26mph.

Friday AM provides stiffer breezes than the previous day, forecast for prevailing winds of 14-18mph and gusts of 21-26mph. This will continue to increase throughout the day with Friday PM reaching some of the highest winds of the tournaments at 19-22mph prevailing and 28-33mph gusts. expect high winds to continue in the weekend.

There are positives and negatives to both sides of the draw. Thursday AM/Friday PM get softer, calmer conditions in round 1 only to be greeted by some of the most severe winds Friday afternoon. Thursday PM/Friday AM groups will avoid the worst winds on Friday afternoon. However, they have higher winds on both Thursday afternoon and on Friday morning, as well as not benefitting from any rain.

A draw bias may still develop in this changeable part of the world. The 2019 Scottish Open provides the best guidance, as the winds were not only higher that year but also from the prevailing westerly direction. 2021 and 2020 not only saw lower winds, but an atypical easterly wind.

https://www.windy.com/56.054/-2.808?55.704,-2.807,8,m:feAaf4u

Related Course Form

With links golf providing such a unique test of golf, and a challenge barely seen on the PGA Tour, I have provided some additional courses when considering correlating form.

– The Renaissance Club (particularly 2019)

– Ballyliffin Golf Club (links course, hosted 2018 Irish Open)

– Mount Juliet Estate (host of Irish Open 2022 and 2021)

– St Andrews Old Course and Kingsbarns Golf Links (rotate for the Alfred Dunhill Links and both traditional links courses)

– Torrance Course at Fairmont St Andrews (traditional links course, host of 2020 Scottish Championship and 2021 Hero Open)

– Yas Links (host of Abu Dhabi Championship, is always windy and exposed. Designed by Kyle Phillips who made Kingsbarns)

– Bernardus Golf (another Kyle Phillips design, host of the Dutch Open 2022 and 2021)

– Doha Golf Club (host of Qatar Masters 2022 and 1998-2019, strong correlation to performance on links tracks and always very windy)

– Verdura Golf Course (host of Sicilian Open, links style course along the coast and wind exposed and again designed by our friend Kyle Phillips)

– Dom Pedro Victoria Golf Course (host of Portugal Masters, which has strong leaderboard form links to this course)

Golf Betting Tips

Suggested Staking

– Tommy Fleetwood 2pts E/W $50.00 (5 places, 1/4 odds various)

– Tyrrell Hatton 1pt E/W $50.00 (5 places, 1/4 odds various)

– Tyrrell Hatton 2pts Top 10 $6.00 (various)

– Aaron Rai 1pt E/W $70.00 (5 places, 1/4 odds Bet365)

– Aaron Rai 2pts Top 10 $8.00 (Bet365)

– Lucas Herbert 1pt E/W $80.00 (5 places, 1/4 odds Bet365)

– Lucas Herbert 1pt Top 10 $8.50 (Bet365) and 2pts Top 20 $4.20 (Bet365)

– Gary Woodland 0.5pts E/W $90.00 (5 places, 1/4 odds various)

– Gary Woodland 2pts Top 10 $9.00 (various)

Player Profiles

Tommy Fleetwood

You may recall during my recent appearance on PGA Draftcast following Haotong Li, that part of his struggles came through COVID-19 and travel difficulties associated. Fleetwood, in many ways, has a similar story to tell.

Tommy was deeply affected by the travel restrictions and his game suffered as a result. A smattering of top 10s in 2020 and 2021 were a rarity with finishes of 30th or higher a far too frequent occurrence for the talented Englishman.

2022 has begun to see a return of form, with a 14th at The Masters and 5th at the windy PGA Championship beginning to suggest we may soon the best of Fleetwood once again on the biggest stages. Along with an elite short game, Fleetwood is 24th for par 4 efficiency on holes between 450-500 yards.

A proven wind player, the links form is exceptional. Most easily identifiable is the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship with an impressive formline: 5-2-13-15-25-2-5-7. Complimenting this is a runner-up finish here in 2019, in perhaps the most comparable to conditions this week, as well as a 26th in 2021.

Tyrrell Hatton

I’ll start by saying that one of the few reasons we are able to obtain Hatton at this price is his approach play has been truly dreadful in the last three tournaments. That may make for unappealing reading, but it is a simple fact.

What I could not overlook was the longer-term stats, which are worthy of consideration here. Hatton is 25th for proximity this season for approaches over 200 yards, 4th for birdie or better percentage for 200+ yards, 42nd for SG: ATG and 5th for SG Putting this year.

A familiar look at links courses may be what he needs to return the ball-striking to his usual standards. Again, the links form is elite. Two-time winner of the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship his form in the last 5 tournaments reads: W-W-3-15-2. He holds finishes of 14th and 18th here and a 5th and 6th at The Open Championship.

Hatton’s best performances this year have also come in the wind. 6th at the Kyle Phillip’s designed Yas Links, he also finished 4th in Dubai, 2nd at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, 13th at The Players Championship, and 13th at the PGA Championship all in windy conditions.

Aaron Rai

Those who follow my tips will know that last week I was extremely close to selecting Rai at the Irish Open. My only reason for fading was the sheer amount of travel and golf he had undergone in the week.

Rai competed in all 4 rounds at the Travelers Championship, and he jumped on a plane to Scotland for the Open Qualifiers, an enduring test of 36 holes in one day. He played extremely well, making a three-man playoff to decide the final three spots only for the other two to qualify. He then travelled to Ireland and would have experienced a disrupted lead into the tournament.

I suspected that, despite the excellent play, that Rai may fade from the workload involved in this exercise. He immediately started the 1st round with 6 birdies in 10 holes and was certainly doing his utmost to make me regret fading him. He eventually finished 9th in a strong showing, again going agonisingly close to securing one of the three Open Championship qualifying spots on offer.

Rai has always been regarded as an excellent ball-striker, but he does his best work with his long irons. He is 31st this season for proximity from 200+ yards and 31st for par-4 efficient between 450-500 yards.

The final three spots to The Open are on offer here. No doubt that Rai will have his eyes on one of them, at a tournament where he won in 2020 under the most similar conditions.

Lucas Herbert

Lucas Herbert was my first bet of the week upon market open. The 80s on offer having been quickly snapped up, although he is available at 70s in spots if you are willing to hunt for him.

As you know, I tipped Herbert a couple times earlier this year. In all instances, it is because he is arguably the best wind player in the world. His wins have come at a very windy Dubai Desert Classic, in 35mph winds at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship, and in the 2021 Irish Open.

https://twitter.com/acaseofthegolf1/status/1453756918179278849?s=20&t=fXye1105CjUvig_Nms5WJg

This year, we saw a 7th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational where he rose through the field shooting the lowest round of the day in the windiest conditions. He cashed a $15.00 Top 10 for us there and Herbert then duly cashed another ticket for us at juicy Top 30 odds of $9.50 at the PGA Championship, despite being on the wrong side of a decent weather draw. The only player better in the afternoon groups of the first round, when the worst of the wind was on offer, was Justin Thomas who beat Herbert by one stroke and eventually won the tournament.

Herbert has just finished 9th at the Irish Open last week for a rebound in form and has 2 x consecutive 4th placed finishes at the Scottish Open for 2021 and 2020. In other correlating form, he has a 3rd from one appearance at the Sicilian Open and a 9th at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship.

Herbert makes his shots with the short-game, where he sits 15th for SG: ATG and 2nd SG: Putting this season. I appreciate that punters are often, and correctly, cautious of short-game statistics driving performance given how volatile these metrics can be. But Herbert is elite in these areas of the game and can be trusted in all elements around the green, especially on a windy course where this will be vital.

Basically: the best wind player in the world, excellent course history, a top 10 last week, an elite short-game, and he is 80/1. We are on.

Gary Woodland

Finally, I will wrap up this week’s headliners with a speculative play on Gary Woodland.

The 2019 US Open Champion arrives in Scotland following an excellent showing at a tough US Open, where he finished 10th at The Country Club in Brookline. Links form is hard to come by for the majority of USA based players, but Woodland does have the benefit of having made the cut at 7/10 Open Championships to at least suggest he is not averse to these conditions.

Some of Woodland’s best performance this year have come in the wind. Notably a 5th at the Honda Classic, 5th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational (denying us a 70/1 winner with a double-bogey, bogey finish), and 8th at a windy Valero Texas Open.

Woodland is long and straight off the tee, but also has excellent control of his ball-flight and the ability to keep the ball low with his signature stingers shots will suit the wind and firm conditions on offer here. Sitting 14th for proximity from 200+ yards, 11th for par-4 efficiency 450-500 yards, and 15th for birdie or better percentage from 200+ yards all point to a strong debut at this course.

3 years ago 0 comments

Sports Betting PGA

2022 Irish Open Golf Betting Tips: Your DP World Tour Deep Dive

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 3 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Who should you bet at the Irish Open? This is your weekly deep dive and golf betting tips.

A fantastic week again for our golf betting tips last week again, delivering our 8th winner of 2022 with Haotong Li cashing the outright tickets for us at 65/1! It was a dream scenario at the BMW International Open, as Haotong not only went wire-to-wire but we also managed to secure 2nd place Thomas Pieters who lost the playoff after a dreadful chip and a spectacular putt saw Li score the win.

With this 1-2 finish, the outright win money alongside full place payouts for both Haotong Li and Thomas Pieters now sees my DP World Tour tips for 2022 sitting at an ROI of a whopping +42%.

It was a dream scenario to have both players in the playoff, and sit back to simply enjoy one of the most emotional victories of recent times. The outpouring of emotion was absolutely justified and very moving. This was a golfer who went from 32nd in the world rankings to outside the top 500 in the space of 18 months, completely lost his game with difficulties travelling to see his family in China through COVID taking a significant toll, and leading to nearly hanging up the clubs just 10 months ago. The comeback was fabulous to watch and a compelling story.

We enter a fantastic run of events on the DP World Tour with the Irish Open this week, the joint tour event at the Scottish Open, all culminating in the 150th Open Championship to be held at St. Andrews. This should be one of the best stretches of golf for the year and one I am excited to cover as we look to continue our wonderful run.

Course Analysis

The Irish Open does move sporadically to a number of courses and returns to the site of last year’s iteration at Mount Juliet Estate Golf Course. Alongside the 2021 rendition, there is history at this venue having held the 1993-1995 events as well as the American Express Championships in 2002 and 2004.

Previous winners here have included some of the legends of the game. Nick Faldo defeated Jose Maria Olazabal when completing a three-peat of Irish Open victories, followed by Bernhard Langer, and Sam Torrance. Ernie Els and Tiger Woods winning the two PGA Tour events held here only add to a star-studded list of golfing legends.

The course, contrary to some first impressions when thinking of an Irish course, is actually a parkland course situated a few miles south of Kilkenny in the South-East of Ireland. The Jack Nicklaus design is a medium length 7,264 yard par 72 with a traditional split of 4 par 5s and 4 par 3s. Three of those par 5s are reachable in two by the majority of the field, with the other par 5 potentially reachable by some of the longer hitters. 7/10 of the Par 4s sit in the 400-450 yard range, which is basically at or slightly below average length.

Fairways are fairly generous. However, driving accuracy is at a premium with tree-lined fairways and plentiful water hazards threatening to cause losing multiple strokes a real possibility for anyone errant off the tee. As often seen on Nicklaus courses, bunkers are also plentiful and approach will also be at a premium.

Alongside last year’s event providing guidance, I have pulled a few course results to find correlations and found some good trends in performance to the 2021 leaderboard with the following events:

Brabazon Course at The Belfry
Galgorm Castle (host of 2020 Irish Open as well as some Challenge Tour events)
Crans-sur-Sierre Golf Club (produced strong links to the 2021 leaderboard)
Dubai Desert Classic (Winner Lucas Herbert having won at both courses, as well as Richard Bland performing well at both)

Overall, I am looking for positive driving accuracy as well as approach play performance. Scoring on the par 5s is essential and provided a strong correlation to results around here. The greens feature subtle breaks and a golfer who has the ability to hit a hot streak with the putter will be needed on a course where we can expect the winning score to sit in the -17 to -22 bracket.

Weather

A large amount of rain has fallen over the past two weeks in Kilkenny and the course is playing softer than desired from reports I have read. This should hopefully aid some of the approach play metrics as required on this track, and as a mid-length course does not pose too much concern for shorter hitters.

More rain is expected Thursday morning with some chance of a drizzle in the afternoon as well. Wind is consistent throughout the day, with 6-8mph prevailing and 14-17mph gusts not holding too many fears.

Friday afternoon tells a different story, with the morning providing by far the calmer conditions. Morning groups will enjoy a calm 6-7mph prevailing with light gusts of 12-15 mph. Friday PM looks to deliver winds prevailing at 12-16mph with gusts up to 25-30mph. More wind over the weekend remains a possibility.

This does look an advantage to the Thursday PM/Friday AM groups.

https://www.windy.com/52.524/-7.188?52.139,-7.191,8,m:e6HafXc

Golf Betting Tips

Suggested Staking

(All E/W with Bet365, 5 places at 1/4 odds)

Richie Ramsay 1pt E/W $61.00

Guido Migliozzi 0.5pt E/W $67.00
Guido Migliozzi 1pt Top 10 $8.00

Fabrizio Zanotti 0.5pt E/W $76.00
Fabrizio Zanotti 1pt E/W $8.00

Sean Crocker 0.5pt E/W $126.00
Sean Crocker 1pt Top 20 $6.00

Sami Valimaki 0.5pt E/W $161.00
Sami Valimaki 1pt Top 20 $7.00

Ewen Ferguson 0.5pt E/W $161.00
Ewen Ferguson 1pt Top 20 $7.00

First, I will say that Lowry is a very worthy favourite at the top of the board as a golfer who sits 4th in the world for SG: Total over the last 3 months. He is clearly the class here, but at odds of 10s since narrowing to 8-9s he is fairly priced and represents little positive expected value.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wu9qJNWuQM4

I will also note that I was very, very close on Aaron Rai. My only misgiving preventing actually tipping him was the amount of travel and golf he has already played this week. After the Travelers, where he played the weekend, he flew directly to Scotland to attempt to qualify for The Open Championship on Tuesday.

He very nearly did, losing in a 3 way playoff with the other 2 qualifying. Qualifying is a long day, 36 holes and around 12 and a half hours from start to finish. It also means little preparation for this week’s event having arrived here on Wednesday at the earliest. On top of a lot of travel halfway around the world, it was just enough to cause me concern at the relatively short odds on offer for a golfer I otherwise love here.

Player Profiles

Richie Ramsay

With some obvious favourites at the top of the board, at relatively fair and short odds, we find ourselves in the mid-range prices to start our tips.

Ramsay has fairly elite course form and corresponding course performances are excellent. A 3rd at The Belfry in the first week of May at a very visually and statistically similar course to Mount Juliet points to good recent form as well as the type of track Ramsay can perform well at. The recent 15th at the Soudal Open also coming at a track where driving accuracy is at a premium. This is a real strength of Richie Ramsay’s game, having performed at or above field average for driving accuracy at all bar 2 events in the last two years.

When we add in a 6th place at Emirates Golf Club, a previous win and 8th at Crans-sur-Sierre, a 33rd at 2020 Irish Open host Galgorm Castle, and a 4th at this event last year, we have one of the strongest related course profiles in the field.

The Scotsman is not in The Open field and will obviously have the added incentive of trying to secure a top 10 here to qualify to the “home of golf” hosted in his nation. The 13th place finish last time out at last week’s BMW International Open came in a low-scoring affair, where a very consistent scorecard saw all his rounds under par (68-68-70-68), and provides some welcome confidence arriving at a track where he was right in contention last year.

Guido Migliozzi

Following a dreadful stretch of golf dating back to September 2021, we are finally seeing a return to form for the highly talented 25-year-old Italian. The 10th place finish at the Dutch Open towards the end of May were the first sparks of life. A resurgence was then seen in full on his last outing at the US Open, where he gained across the board to finish a highly respectable 14th.

Migliozzi has been an excellent putter throughout his career and has gained strokes putting in 7 of his last 9 appearances. Of those, several of these events have seen gains of 5 strokes or more with the flat-stick. The subsequent bump in his approach play, alongside improvements in driving accuracy, now show promising signs for the ball-striking from a two-time DP World Tour winner.

A third victory was very much on the cards in 2021, where he lost in a playoff to Richard Bland (who has also played well here) at The Belfry. Alongside that correlating form, a 7th last year at Crans-sur-Sierre also provided further strength to Migliozzi’s case. The early afternoon tee-time for Migliozzi is ideal, meaning he will be the 3rd group on the course Friday morning and hopefully able to avoid the very worst of the winds that afternoon.

Fabrizio Zanotti

We are seeing a great spike in Zanotti’s performance of late, as he enters this week sitting 7th in this field for SG: Tee-to-green and 2nd for SG: Approach over the last 3 months. Highly accurate with the driver, Zanotti has gained accuracy off the tee on the field at every event since May 2021. Gaining multiple strokes on approach when recently finishing in 8th place at a similar course at The Belfry, as well as finishing 8th for SG: Approach last week, all indicate a golfer entering his best recent form. Sitting 8th on the DP World Tour this season for Par 5 scoring only adds further to the credentials.

Zanotti can spike with the putter, including multiple strokes at the bentgrass green when finishing 18th in Dubai earlier this year. 33rd here at last year’s Irish Open came following a missed cut, and corresponds with other Irish form with a 7th in the 2020 rendition at the similar parkland course of Galgorm Castle. Alongside a 3rd and 16th at Crans-sur-Sierre, corresponding form jumps out all over the page for him.

The 75/1 on offer is fantastic value for a golfer who has huge upside if he can bring his best putting this week, with the PM/AM tee-times an added advantage to make the weekend.

Sean Crocker

We enter the triple figure odds with another talented youngster returning to form, with the 25-year-old having finished 2nd last week for SG: Approach. Crocker began the year with 8 consecutive missed cuts, manging to right the ship at the Soudal Open when finishing 7th.

That was on a course demanding driving accuracy and clubbing down off the tee, which for a player with plenty of length off the tee is a great combination here. Driving accuracy has often been a problem for Crocker, but gaining accuracy off the tee in 4 of his last 6 (with last week just 4% off field average) and the spike in approach are all promising signs.

Crocker has a raft of top 10 finishes during 2019-2021 before that short 6 month slump. Contained within that are a 4th at Crans-sur-Sierre alongside a 9th here last year, indicating a test which should really suit a golfer returning towards his high ceilings. Crocker is in the second group out Friday morning and he represents great value at an overpriced number.

Sami Valimaki

At 23-years-old, we still are learning exactly what true ceiling for Valimaki’s game looks like. What we do know is he won at just 20-years-old on the DP World Tour, and holds an additional 4 professional wins at lower levels to suggest further success at this level is a very real possibility.

That 2020 season was his first on tour, and contained multiple tops 10s including at the season ending DP World Tour Championship to go alongside his inaugural victory. A 2nd and 6th at the parkland course at Celtic Manor, as well as 18th on the Catalunya Championship where accuracy was also at a premium, all indicate this track should fit his eye well.

Valimaki is starting to return to his best ball-striking, gaining for driving accuracy in 4/6 and sitting 28th in the field for SG: Approach in the last 3 months. A spike in performance when finishing 4th last week, when gaining in all metrics on the field but particularly finding his putter, is enough to include him here at a massive price.

Ewen Ferguson

Finally, I will round out the week with another young talent and our 2nd Scotsman. The 25-year-old secured victory at a very windy Qatar Masters, which possesses some parallels to leaderboards seen here, and spiked on approach last week when sitting 7th for SG: Approach.

Over the last 3 months, Ferguson sits 16th for SG Approach and 23rd for SG OTT in this field indicating his ball-striking is very competitive of late. 11/12 of his most recent events have seen him gain on the field for driving accuracy whilst sitting at field for driving distance, a combination that should see him in contention here. Being in the 2nd group out on Friday AM is perfect, although the wind in the Qatar victory suggest the poor weather over the weekend should be of a benefit.

The Irish form also has been very consistent. In his first year on tour, Ferguson had his best finish that season in Ireland when finishing 14th. That was at this event, hosted at the similar Galgorm Castle course where he also holds a 7th on the Challenge Tour, and he holds an additional 38th at another Irish course on the Challenge Tour.

3 years ago 0 comments

Sports Betting PGA Premium

122nd US Open: Golf Betting Tips, Long-Shots, and Player Profiles

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 3 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

If you haven’t already, head over here to get your full golf deep dive including course analysis and weather forecasts:
https://windailysports.com/122nd-us-open-course-analysis-and-weather-deep-dive/?ref=31

Suggested Staking

Headliners

Jordan Spieth 1pt E/W $29.00 (bet365, 5 places 1/4 odds)
Jordan Spieth 2pt Top 10 $3.50 (bet365)

Cameron Young 1pt E/W $41.00 (bet365, 8 places 1/5 odds)
Cameron Young 2pt Top 20 $2.70 (bet365)

Max Homa 1pt E/W $56.00 (bet365, 8 places 1/5 odds)
Max Homa 2pt Top 20 $2.75 (TAB)

Daniel Berger 1pt E/W $56.00 (bet365, 8 places 1/5 odds)
Daniel Berger 2pt Top 20 $3.00 (bet365)

Aaron Wise 1pt E/W $76.00 (bet365, 8 places 1/5 odds)
Aaron Wise 2pt Top 20 $3.50 (bet365)

Long-Shots

Sebastian Munoz 0.25pt E/W $151.00 (bet365, 8 places 1/5 odds)
Sebastian Munoz 1.5pt Top 20 $5.00 (bet365)

Brian Harman 0.25pt E/W $176.00 (bet365, 8 places 1/5 odds)
Brian Harman 1.5pt Top 20 $6.00 (bet365)

Ryan Fox 0.25pt E/W $201.00 (bet365, 8 places 1/5 odds)
Ryan Fox 1.5pt Top 20 $6.50 (TAB)

Lucas Herbert 0.25pt E/W $276.00 (bet365, 8 places 1/5 odds)
Lucas Herbert 1.5pt Top 20 $8.00 (TAB)

Francesco Molinari 0.25pt E/W $276.00 (bet365, 8 places 1/5 odds)
Francesco Molinari 1.5pt Top 20 $8.00 (bet365)

Player Profiles: Headliners

Jordan Spieth

I have been deliberately fading Jordan Spieth of late given his well-documented putting woes these past 6 months. The fact is we know that Spieth can putt, with multiple years where he has gained substantial strokes putting, and he has been one of the best on tour of late for SG: tee-to-green sitting 4th in that metric for this field over the last 3 months. He even managed a win at Harbour Town despite losing strokes putting, which is basically unheard of on tour.

We have finally seen the putter spark back to life, gaining strokes putting in 3 of his last 4 tournaments, in what was the only piece to the puzzle needed to re-enter the elite conversation. The other metrics mesh perfectly over the last 3 months: 13th SG: OTT, 26th SG: App, and 2nd SG: ATG. On that last stat he has gained strokes around the green in his last 7 appearances and, given the expected weather and small putting surfaces, his ability to get up and down holds extra appeal this week.

Spieth major record speaks for itself, his multiple major wins including the 2015 US Open (with Chambers Bay being somewhat analogous to The Country Club) and the 2017 Open Championship (where he also holds multiple top 10s and has never missed a cut). Alongside that recent win at the RBC Heritage, he also holds an excellent record at Pebble Beach with a win there as well as 2nd and 3rd place finishes in his two most recent appearances. What that is worth remains to be seen but having performed well at other venues with microscopic greens is hardly a negative.

I’m happy to beat the curve somewhat on Spieth, who rates out 7th on an odds board where he ranks better or on par in my models than several of the shorter priced golfers. I have a fair price at 18s in my models, so the 29s ranks as a steal that I am willing to jump on.

Cameron Young

The 51s on open have quickly been snapped up for Cameron Young, but with bet365 offering 8 places this week we are still seeing value at the current mark of 41s.

Perhaps best known for his ability with the driver Young is straight and long off the tee, which is always a recipe for success in US Opens. He is the 7th longest on tour for driving distance and is 2nd for SG: OTT over the last 3 months. That distance comes of benefit in his irons as well, ranking 27th this season in approach proximity for shots over 200 yards.

Where Spieth ranks 2nd in this field for SG: ATG over the last 3 months, Cameron Young sits 1st. Finding a golfer who is so prolific off the tee but also has that level of touch around the greens is beyond rare; Young is the real deal.

Young has already demonstrated this season that his skills are transitory across a wide range of golf courses. A 2nd at the traditional tough Genesis Invitational, 13th at a windy Arnold Palmer Invitational, 3rd at the shorter RBC Heritage, 2nd in the narrow and high scoring Wells Fargo Championship, and 3rd in the most recent major at the PGA Championship played on the long Southern Hills. He will be better for that appearance, when he arguably should have won, and it is only a matter of time before the 25-year-old secures a breakthrough victory.

Max Homa

Another whose distance and accuracy off the tee holds appeal, Homa enters this major on a run of 9 consecutive events gaining strokes with the driver and 11 straight events gaining strokes on approach. Combine that with gaining multiple strokes putting over his last 4 events, and 2 of his 4 PGA Tour victories coming on similar greens, and it is easy to build a case for the winner of two events this season.

Of those victories, the win at the tough Wells Fargo holds the most appeal coming on a narrow and tough track where weather was also a factor, complimented by a victory in 2021 at the tough Genesis Invitational. Rankings over the last 3 months of 19th SG: T2G, 18th SG: OTT, 10th SG: APP, and 22nd SG: PUTT suggest a well-rounded golfer ready to make the step to the next level.

If there is a chink in the armour, it is his around the green game where he sits middle of the pack in this field over the last 3 months. However, having gained strokes around the green in 5 of his last 8 strokeplay events suggests this is passable if complimented by the elite ball-striking we have seen from Homa this year.

Arriving off a 5th at Memorial, in one of the toughest fields of the year, and a best major finish of 13th at the PGA Championship, Homa arrives in excellent form to pursue a career-defining victory.

Daniel Berger

Having suffered a back sprain earlier in the year, reading Berger’s profile requires a longer-term view to gain a true reflection of his ability. When we do, we find a player who over the last 12 months has ranked at 7th for SG: T2G, 5th for SG: APP, and 24th for SG: ATG. Over the last 2 years, he also measures 32nd for SG: OTT (gained on field in last 4 events) and 30th for SG: PUTT (gained 6.8 strokes when 5th last time out at Memorial) provides a complete, well-rounded profile that can compete with the best on his day.

The missed cut at the PGA Championship should be read in the context of his first appearance from 5 weeks off, where he still managed to gain strokes off-the-tee, and followed most recently by top performances in high class fields suggesting the back should no longer be of any concern. Some of Berger’s best major performances have come of late, with a 7th in the 2021 US Open and 8th in the 2021 Open Championship bettered only by a 6th at the 2018 US Open (where Shinnecock Hills is again at least somewhat analogous to here). A victory at Pebble Beach in 2021 followed a 5th place finish there in 2020, and recent form at Harbour Town of 3-13-21 suggesting these smaller targets seem to suit the eye.

Aaron Wise

At the Memorial Tournament, I went back and forth between Wise and Kirk for my final tip. Kirk received favouritism, and Wise duly popped up for a 2nd place finish where he gained a massive 8.48 strokes on approach to the field.

Wise sits 6th for SG: APP in this field over the last 3 months, 16th for SG:T2G, has gained strokes off-the-tee in 10 out of 11 tournaments (losing just 0.40 strokes at the Mexico Open), gained strokes ATG in 6 of 9 recent appearances, and has gained 4.84 and 5.24 strokes putting in his last two outings.

Despite not holding a glittering major record, Wise has made his last 6 major cuts with results of 17-41-35-41-17-23. These all came at a time where we were not seeing the same metric profile we find here, as the 25-year-old enters this tournament in the best form of his short career.

For 76s, we are getting a lot of value for a player who should be priced at 60s based on my models.

Player Profiles: Long-Shots

Sebastian Munoz

Gained stokes both OTT and APP in 10/12 of his most recent tournaments, stroked putting in 6/7 tournaments and has been at or above field average for SG: ATG in his last 10 appearances.

Sat 2nd when entering the final round of The Players Championship before fading Sunday, a challenging tournament played in windy conditions and demanding elite ball striking. 36th entering final round at PGA Championship before following a similar pattern, the more he gives himself opportunities in these big events the better.

A surprise top 20 is certainly on the cards, and at 150s for the wins should be at shorter odds for the 54th best player in the world according to OWGR.

Ryan Fox

One of two golfers where I’ve foregone the preferred Thursday AM/Friday PM wave. Fox ranks out 4th in this field over the last 3 months for weighted SG: APP. On the DP World Tour this season, he is 4th SG: APP, 4th SG: T2G, and 10th for putts per GIR.

Recent form of W-15-9-8-2-54-2 and, although majority of results were at the lower level of the DP World Tour, the 54th at the recent PGA Championship was where he sat 17th when entering the final round. Best major performances have come at The Open Championship, with 4/5 made cuts and a 16th in 2019.

Well known for his prolific distance off the tee we have seen him play well this year at a variety of courses, including the Soudal Open which was a tight and narrow test. Fox likes to club down and hit a 2 iron off the tee, as he did there, and it should also be noted that his 9th at the Catalunya Championship was unfortunately hampered by that same club suffering a fracture to the shaft limiting his options off the tee. That ability to club down off the tee for accuracy, as well as confidence with his long irons generally, all should be of benefit at this links-like test.

Brian Harman

Harman quietly holds excellent US Open form, with recent outings of 2-36-38-19 all coming at longer tests than he finds this week.

Highly accurate off the tee, Harman is 18th for SG: ATG in this field over the last 12 months and has hit a good run of putting lately ranking 29th for SG: PUTT over the last 3 months.

Lucas Herbert

My other golfer on the other side of the weather draw, I always play Herbert in questionable and windy conditions.

All three of his victories have come in windy conditions, with a PGA Tour win at the October 2021 Bermuda Championship as well as high profile DP World Tour wins at the 2021 Irish Open and the 2020 Dubai Desert Classic.

Herbert possesses an excellent short-game which should hold him in a test that will demand scrambling from even the best ball strikers. Herbert ranks our 6th for SG: PUTT and 25th for SG: ATG over the last 3 months, and these metrics follow on a longer 12 months forecast with rankings of 4th and 39th respectively.

The Australian was 31st at his last US Open appearance in 2020 and arrives here a better player. Coming off his best major finish of 13th at the recent PGA Championship, when we were on at 300/1. Hebert was the 2nd lowest round of the afternoon players at that tournament, one stroke behind Justin Thomas, in a big weather draw. He entered the final round in 10th, was just one shot off the lead midway through the final round before eventually finishing in 13th. Cashed some overpriced Top 30 tickets for us that week at $9.50 and another top finish is certainly possible for the young Australian.

Francesco Molinari

Although perhaps regarded as past his prime, Molinari is another who holds a quietly impressive US Open record with most recent finishes of 25-16-13. Complimented by a 2018 Open Championship major victory and followed by 11th in 2019, all suggest a golfer who can still mix with the best at the top of the leader boards in these tougher tests.

Gained strokes on approach in 5 of 7 most recent tournaments, 27th in this field for SG: ATG and gained on the field ATG in 6 of his last 9 appearances. Recent finishes of 17th, 55th at a PGA Championship which was far too long a course for him, and a respectable 26th at the strong field seen at The Memorial Tournament. Could surprise at massive odds.

3 years ago 0 comments

PGA Sports Betting

Porsche European Open: Your DP World Tour Deep Dive & Golf Betting Tips

DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski 3 years ago

written by DeepDiveGolf - David Bieleski

Winner winner! A fantastic result last week at the Dutch Open as Victor Perez provided our 6th winner of the year at juicy $56.00 odds. Having back him each way, we also grabbed a Top 5 place payout at equivalent odds of $14.75 and a Top 10 at $6.50.

We had 3 of our 4 other golfers with Ross Fisher, Jordan Smith, and Haotong Li all either in the lead or just one back at some point during the tournament. Haotong was perhaps the most promising, having shot the low round of the week on Friday posting a 9 under 63 (including being 7 under after his first 9 holes) to lead at the halfway mark before falling away in dramatic fashion over the weekend.

It was a nervous finish for a couple of reasons. The most obvious being that the win required a playoff which took Victor Perez 4 holes to complete with some of the most incredible long putts being drained. But there was also the added factor that his competitor was my countryman Ryan Fox, who I had tipped for the previous 3 weeks creating a serious threat of FOMO.

Fortunately, Victor Perez secured his 2nd DP World Tour win for us and drove our year-to-date ROI to a whopping 27% for my DP World Tour picks.

This week the DP World Tour moves just south of Hamburg, Germany where Tommy Fleetwood appears as the headliner, in what always provides a stern test. The field should prove interesting, with the announcement of the first LIV Golf field providing some intrigue as to whether those named will tee it up here. Who should you bet for the Porsche European Open? This is everything you need to know with your weekly golf deep dive and betting tips.

Course Analysis

Green Eagles Golf Courses plays host this week, where it has been hosted here since 2017, of note being that 2020 did not occur due to COVID and 2021 was a truncated 54 holes due to Germany COVID restrictions at the time. The course here has always used the North Course, which can play as an absolute brute as one of the 10 longest golf courses in the world at up to 7,836 yards.

Rather sadly, the tour do not opt to play to the maximum distance here, in what I believe would make an interesting challenge. In fact, the course will play a little shorter this year than the 7,544 yard par 72 seen in previous iterations as the par 3 4th is reduced from 224 yards to 154 yards for a total distance of 7,475 yards.

Another strange quirk is the finishing holes, with 3 of the 5 par 5s coming in the last 4 holes with a run from the 14th of par 3-par 5-par 5-par 3-par 5. The par 5s provide a target for birdies meaning a late challenge is possible. It is worth avoiding the instant temptation to simply play bombers, as of the 5 par 5s only the final 18th is truly reachable in two at 517 yards. The rest of the par 5s measure 594 yards or further which keeps the short hitters in play in what can become a wedge contest from 125 yards and in.

I like looking at SG: OTT here as a measure, as although distance can prove beneficial so does keeping the ball in play on a course that features water hazards on practically every hole. With fairly forgiving fairways, the water can usually be avoided but anything seriously errant may find trouble. Again, large greens greet the players and SG: Approach should be used to provide guidance here especially those who can get it closer with superior wedge-play. Of comparable course, Le Golf National and the Open de France provides one of the better examples. Expect a winning score in the 10-15 under range.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q746gOhcOic

Weather

There seems to be a fairly clear advantage in the forecasts to those Thursday AM/Friday PM. Thursday will be cold and sees winds in the range of 6-9mph with gusts between 11-18mph. This will build throughout the day with some light drizzle and winds reaching a peak around 2pm, with winds of 10-13mph but gusts up to 22-28mph.

Friday should see clam conditions throughout the day with no major disadvantage to those in the afternoon. In fact, the temperatures rising to a milder 21C in the afternoon on Friday afternoon could even prove beneficial for distance.

The weekend provides little challenge with moderate winds and some but not mild gusts. The advantage is not significant enough to recommends playing Thursday AM/Friday PM exclusively if there is someone in the alternate times that you are hot on, but it is worthy of consideration when constructing your lineup and betting tips.

Porsche European Open – Golf Betting Tips

Suggested Staking

Mikko Korhonen 1pt E/W $46.00 (Bet365, 5 places 1/4 odds)

Edoardo Molinari 1pt E/W $56.00 (Bet365, 5 places 1/4 odds)

Connor Syme 0.5pt E/W $101.00 (Bet365, 5 places 1/4 odds)
Connor Syme 1pt Top 10 $11.00 (TAB)

Ross Fisher 0.5pt E/W $111.00 (Bet365, 5 places 1/4 odds)
Ross Fisher 1pt Top 10 $11.00 (TAB)

Eddie Pepperell 0.5pt E/W $141.00 (Bet365, 10 places 1/7 odds)
Eddie Pepperell 1pt Top 20 $6.00 (TAB)

Frederic Lacroix 0.5pt E/W $161.00 (Bet365, 10 places 1/7 odds)
Frederic Lacroix 1pt Top 20 $8.00 (TAB)

Player Profiles

Mikko Korhonen

Having tipped up Korhonen at the Catalunya Championship (where he finished 33rd), he has proceeded to follow that up with finishes of 8th and 14th in his two most recent starts meaning we are back on here.

This is a golfer who finished 7th here last year, but arrived at that tournament off the back of a missed cut compared to the much better form we find him in at this year’s Porsche European Open. In this instance, Korhonen has gained SG: Approach on his last four tournaments and grown his advantage over the field in that category at each of those tournaments indicating he is trending upwards with his iron play.

The highly accurate driver has gained in every metric the last three tournaments and has not finished higher solely due to his putter. He currently sits 9th in this field for SG: T2G in the last 3 months.

Yet, he arrives at a course where he far outperformed expected strokes gained with the flat-stick when finishing 6th for SG: Putting in 2021. It suggests he does have a positive affinity to this surface and, if he can get both components to gel, he should threaten a 3rd DP World Tour victory.

Edoardo Molinari

Having again threatened the lead at stages at last week’s Dutch Open, I remain adamant that another DP World Tour victory is around the corner for Molinari. We find him at higher odds than the previous two tournaments, pushing him into a positive expected value for this week.

Molinari’s ball-striking is what draws us to him again, as this short but accurate iron player arrives as the 5th best player in this field for SG: Approach over the last 3 months, 15th for SG: OTT the last 3 months, and 2nd for SG: Approach over the last 6 months.

As always, the putter is what we need from Molinari. He finished 2nd in last year’s tournament which hold promise, as well as having trended towards better putting in his last 4 tournaments being either gaining or very small losses to the field. Having watched his last few appearances closely, the putting has been far from terrible with multiple putts over 10 feet continuing to threaten the hole and miss by mere inches. A few more that drop, and his excellent run of recent results would likely lead to a win.

Connor Syme

We jump into the triple figure odds quite early this week, in a field that outside the top 5 looks very open.

Syme has a record of 22nd and 18th at his two appearances here. Both came after some very ordinary form, the 22nd after a run of two missed cuts and a 32nd and the 18th after a run of another two missed cuts.

The 26 year old Syme has looked much more comfortable on the DP World Tour this year. He was one of the best putters in the field at both the Soudal Open and the Betfred British Masters where he popped for a 3rd. After a two week break, his approach play spiked from having lost strokes on the field for the 4 prior tournaments and having hit the ball better earlier in the year.

During that run, a 27th and 6th at Ras Al-Khaimah came on a similar track that had wide enough fairways to allow for some more aggressive tee-shots and large greens as seen in this week’s tournament.

Ross Fisher

Ross Fisher remains overpriced for a golfer with excellent credentials for this test. Fisher is 6th for SG: T2G in this field, gaining plenty off the tee with his driving distance playing a key part in that performance where he ranks 4th for SG: OTT.

Having gained in SG: Approach in 6/9 tournaments, with a 7th tournament basically a push at field average, there are signs he should enjoy a track that allows a more liberal approach with the driver. Again, we need some putting from the Englishman, but he is at a track where he gained 6 strokes on the field putting here in 2019. He has good correlating form at Le Golf National as well with a run of 34-26-22-7 there.

The last two tournaments he has been at or just below the field average for putting, suggesting that if he can roll a few in on relatively tame greens he could be in contention at triple figure odds.

Eddie Pepperell

Pepperell was backed at the British Masters, where he failed to do much following a difficult first round before scrambling to make the weekend and finish 48th, and again followed up with a jump in performance to pop up for a 14th last week. I am happy to hold that we were a little early timing a return to form for Pepperell and I’m pleased to see he remains at long odds here.

This is a golfer who has finished 3rd at The Players Championship, 6th at the BMW PGA Championship, and 4th at the Irish Open to go with wins at the Qatar Masters and the 2018 British Masters. Jumping up in ball striking last week to finish 21st for SG Approach as well as some confident putting, I am happy to take at long odds where a top 20 appearance seems very possible should the 31 year old continue this return to form.

Frederic Lacroix

Finally, I round up this week’s Porsche European Open tips with an up and comer Freddie Lacroix. In his first year on the main DP World Tour, he held an excellent record on the Challenge Tour in 2021 including a 9th in Germany in September of that year.

Lacroix has gained for both SG: Approach and SG: Putting in his last three appearances, which includes a 21st at the British Masters and a 24th at the Dutch Open, ranking 26th for putting and 29th for approach over the last 30 days in this field. The driver has been where he has lost shots, but that distance can prove useful here on a track that can provide opportunities for those with some extra length off the tee.

As always, please gamble responsibly and only bet what you can afford to lose. Wishing you all the best with your picks and another successful week.

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3 years ago 0 comments

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