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Following up on the format introduced on our NBA livestreams featuring Michael Rasile and myself, we’ll be giving you all our Thrive Five for each NBA slate. For those that are familiar with the inside joke on the livestream, life is too short to live for the unders, but all jokes aside, we’ll be providing both sides of our five favorite player props from our partner at Thrive Fantasy; the picks are listed in order of preference, with the last two the “friskiest” of the bunch. If you are unfamiliar with the concept of Thrive Fantasy, make sure to read our full partnership review here, and to join now to get a deposit match of up to $50 and 3 free months of WinDaily: Gold Package using promo code windaily.

NBA Pick #1: Jayson Tatum OVER 9.5 Rebounds

The first pick of the day is a young NBA player blossoming into an absolute star in these NBA Playoffs: Orlando Bubble edition. As the Celtics look to get over the hump in the Eastern conference, you can argue that this is as good of a chance that they’ll ever have considering both Milwaukee and Toronto have been eliminated. In his past 9 games, Tatum has gone for 9 or more rebounds 8 times, including going for double digits in his last 5. With Theis being man handled by Adebayo down low, Tatum has been crashing the glass often and efficiently, and he should continue to do so.

NBA Pick #2: Marcus Smart OVER 22.5 PRA (Points, Rebounds, Assists combined)

The second pick of the day is one of the defensive specialists in the NBA, Marcus Smart. Coming out of OSU, Smart had a great March Madness tournament and really found his offensive game in his sophomore year. In the NBA, he’s a two-time NBA all-defensive team member, both coming in the past two seasons, but in these NBA playoffs, he’s contributing just as much on the offensive end of the floor. His volume in undeniable, and so are his minutes – Smart has played 35 or more minutes in every playoff game other than Game 1 against Toronto, which was a blowout. With the amount of minutes he plays combined with having 48 FG attempts in his past three games, including 34 from deep, this is a great spot for someone with a 22.5 over/under PRA.

NBA Pick #3: Goran Dragic OVER 18.5 Points

The third pick of the day is someone that we spoke about in the livestream, and while the majority of the field focused on Jimmy Butler, we nailed Dragic’s importance to Miami’s offense in this series. After dropping 15, 15, and 17 points in Games 3-5, respectively, versus Milwaukee, Dragic put up 29 in Game 1 versus Boston and had not gone under 20 points in every game throughout the NBA playoffs.

NBA Pick #4: Jaylen Brown OVER 28.5 PRA (Points, Rebounds, Assists combined)

The fourth pick of the day is one where end up getting a bit riskier with our selections as we look to maximize our payouts on parlays and points scored in GPP style tournaments. While Jayson Tatum and Marcus Smart are both the preferred “over” picks, JB’s 28.5 mark for all three primary offensive statistics is low considering he’s seeing more usage than Kemba Walker as of late, and has been playing more minutes. Being on the wing and not having to face Jimmy Butler, who is tasked with guarding Tatum, Brown should be able to take advantage of anyone else who guards him, including Duncan Robinson, Tyler Herro, or others.

NBA Pick #5: Daniel Theis UNDER 10.5 PA (Points + Assists combined)

The last pick of the day is one that we got in Game 1, with Daniel Theis hitting under 17.5 points and rebounds. Today, we have the opportunity to hit the under 10.5 points and assists combination; Theis has only gotten more than two assists in one of his last ten games, and, as predicted on the livestream, his struggles versus Bam Adebayo on the interior will make it tough for him to hit such a low total, nonetheless.

Follow me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost !

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With the last two-game NBA slate of the season underway tonight, this will be the last edition of the NBA Gems; thank you to everyone for the continued support and I can’t wait to get back at it in December when we have another full NBA season ahead of us! Tonight’s slate sees a Game 7 between two rivals in Boston and Toronto, while the Clippers look to close out the Nuggets in Game 5. Let’s dive in:

The Lock: Kyle Lowry, PG ($8,900 FD / $8,600 DK)

Hopefully you were tuned in when called the Raptors taking Game 6 behind the “Kyle Lowry and Fred VanVleet show” live on air – tonight should be no different. Look for both guards to essentially never leave the court and soak up as much usage as they can on the offense end with Pascal Siakam continuing his struggles versus the Celtics; arguably one of, if not the most important players in franchise history, Kyle Lowry will continue to build on his legacy should he be able to lead the Raptors on a playoff run without Kawhi Leonard – and I think they do just that. He’s seen 40 or more minutes in every game that wasn’t a blowout, and when he gets hot from deep like he was last game and starts attacking the basket while drawing fouls on both ends of the floor, he’s a force. In the most meaningful game on the slate, lock him in.

The NBA Core Gems

Nikola Jokic ($9,900 FD / $10,000 DK)

If the Nuggets are to fend off the Clippers and live to see another day and a Game 6, the Joker will have to pull a vintage performance together. We’ve mentioned it time and time again that Jamal Murray is in tough with defensive matchups versus Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, and/or Patrick Beverly, and this is Joker’s offense right now. Averaging 28/13.67/6 in 38.5 MPG in his last three, he’s walking triple double that will need to lead his team on offense if they want to stay alive.

Fred VanVleet ($7,900 FD/DK)

Not much to be said here that wans’t covered in the Lowry blurb above, but FVV is just as crucial to the Raptors winning Game 7 as his backcourt partner. There isn’t something that FVV can’t do on the court – he has the most volume along with Lowry on offense, he plays excellent defense and picks up both steals and blocks, and he rebounds/passes efficiently. While his shooting percentage is lower than I’d like in this series, he makes shots when it matters; the volume is undeniable, and neither is his ceiling.

Also Consider: Jayson Tatum/Jaylen Brown/Kemba Walker

The NBA Value Gems

Toronto/Boston Value

  • Marcus Smart ($6,400 FD / $6,800 DK)
  • OG Anunoby ($6,000 FD / $5,900 DK)
  • Daniel Theis ($5,600 FD/DK)
  • Norman Powell ($5,000 FD / $4,400 DK)

LA Clippers/Denver Value

  • Michael Porter Jr. ($5,200 FD/DK)
  • Jerami Grant ($4,900 FD / $ DK)
  • Marcus Morris Sr. ($5,100 FD / $4,800 DK)
  • Ivica Zubac ($4,700 FD / $5,000 DK)
  • Gary Harris ($5,000 FD / $4,600 DK)
  • Patrick Beverly ($4,800 FD / $3,800 DK)
  • JaMychal Green ($3,900 FD / $3,600 DK)

A Quick Note on NBA DFS

While there are many different sports and various contests pertaining to DFS along with their respective strategies, we focus on the main approaches to build both reliable cash and GPP lineups for a successful NBA night including pace, the projected over/under, one on one matchups (DVP), a player’s usage rate, and a team’s defensive rating. Make sure to stay active when building NBA lineups – if you cannot be in front of a computer, tablet, or on your phone an hour before lock, do not throw your money away! NBA DFS lineups can change at the blink of an eye and are the most variable compared to any other sport in DFS; players get injured, some sit for load management, and others find themselves on the DNP list for other reasons; any of which can sway your lineup and where to find value. Stay alert on the WinDaily Discord chat to follow along with our updated plays. GOOD LUCK TO ALL!

Follow me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost !

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CS:GO Slate Summary: ESL (8am EST)

  • 4 series on DK
  • Best of 3

CS:GO Matchup #1: Natus Vincere (-175) vs ENCE (+125)

The first matchup on the CS:GO slate sees NAVI taking on ENCE, who is coming off a rather impressive win over Heroic. Since both teams ban Vertigo first at 90+% rates, I expect neither to sue their first ban on it; instead, I can see ENCE taking away Inferno and NAIV choosing to ban Mirage. In turn, ENCE will likely select Train, whilst NAVI will probably turn to one of Dust2 or Nuke. With s1mple remaining under 10K, he is firmly in play for both the flex and captain spots, if you’re comfortable stooping down into some low-priced value plays; the AWPer’s 1.39 K/D and 0.81 KPR over the past three months is simply uncanny, and his upside on this slate is second to none.

Top Plays: s1mple ($9,800), electronic ($7,800), flamie ($5,400)

CS:GO Matchup #2: BIG (-200) vs OG (+150)

The second matchup sees two familiar foes in BIG and OG taking one another on for yet another matchup. Ever since they went on their ridiculous run dating back to DreamHack in the spring, BIG has owned OG in their head-to-head matchup, and I don’t see how that changes here today. BIG bans Train first at an 89% rate while OG bans Vertigo first 94% of the time. With how dominant BIG has been on Dust2, I expect them to continue picking it, while OG will likely turn to Inferno with their selection, where they are riding a 6-map winning streak and hold an advantage in winning percentage. While the trio of syrsoN, tabseN, and XANTERES will always find a way to get theirs, k1to’s 1.30 K/D and 0.76 KPR on Dust2 is what makes him such an intriguing play from a point/$ perspective, and I’ll definitely be overweight compared to the field.

Top Plays: syrsoN ($9,000), tabseN ($8,800), k1to ($6,800)

CS:GO Matchup #3: Heroic (-400) vs AGO (+275)

The third matchup on the CS:GO slate has our biggest favorite and #2 team in the world, Heroic, taking on AGO. While mhL can keep AGO in matches such as this one, Heroic has been playing as good as anyone since the return from the player break. With them being the heaviest favorite on the slate as affordable prices, I’m expecting massive ownership on both stavn and TeSeS, and would likely be slightly underweight in large field tournaments, although they do make for a solid core in cash games and single entry tournaments.

Top Plays: stavn ($8,000), TeSeS ($7,400)

One-off: mhL ($6,600)

CS:GO Matchup #4: Evil Geniuses (-350) vs 100 Thieves (+250)

The last matchup on the CS:GO slate sees two NA teams as familiar with one another as it gets. With how little these two teams play on both Overpass and Mirage, look for neither of them to be in consideration here. Rather, look for EG to turn to Inferno, if 100T doesn’t ban it, or Nuke, while 100T will likely select Vertigo, should it be available. EG holds all the map advantages necessary here, with the lone exception of Vertigo, and I expect EG to go for a 2-0 sweep here. CeRq is an elite play sitting under 9k, and his 1.25 K/D and 0.78 KPR online has really seen him take his game to another level.

Top Plays: CeRq ($8,200), Ethan ($7,800)

One-off: jks ($7,000)

You can find me in the WinDaily Discord chat and on twitter @DFS_Ghost!

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