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The Tour Championship: Initial Picks

Sia
written by Sia

Welcome to the FedEx Cup Playoff finale. The Tour Championship will guarantee some big paydays for this entire field, with the winner taking home 15 million dollars. The DK field is comprised of only 29 players but Patrick Reed should be added which would round out the 30 person field. We will talk about course dynamics and roster construction on Tuesday’s PGA Livestream so make sure to join us there at 8:00 EST. Please keep in mind starting strokes apply here (which we will also talk about on the PGA show). My focus this week is to be a little more contrarian than normal in GPP as there will be some mega-chalk with this week. Let’s get to the Tour Championship picks.

Jon Rahm (13000) – Rahm begins this tournament four shots behind pre-tournament leader Patrick Cantlay, but that doesn’t concern me at all. Rahm is playing better golf than anyone and I expect him to prove he’s the best golfer on the planet this week. He starts at -6.

Tony Finau (11000) – He’s in excellent form (other than a pedestrian showing last week), but he’ll only be a play for me if his ownership is relatively low (relative to the rest of the 10k and above range). He starts at -8.

Dustin Johnson (10700) – I think DJ will end up being relatively contrarian since most people will choose to pay up for a star in better form or pay down for a guy like Rory or Xander (both of whom I also like). DJ isn’t in the best form but has some great East Lake and Tour Championship history. Won’t take much for him to get his groove back. He starts at -3.

Rory McIlroy (9300) – Great price plus great form plus great history. Rory is likely to be very popular at this price so feel free to fade him due to ownership, but he’s a great value and I’ll find a way to play him. He starts at -2.

Xander Schauffele (8900) – Another guy likely to be popular and for good reason. He absolutely destroys East Lake and illustrated that last year shooting a true 15 under par (that’s NOT accounting for starting strokes). He starts at -2.

Viktor Hovland (8000) – I’m trying to stay patient with Hovland as he was a disappointment last week. With that said, he did gain over 5.5 strokes BS and it was the short game that really failed him. At this price I’m willing to see if he can turn it around and climb the Tour Championship leaderboard. He starts at -3.

Scottie Scheffler (6800) – He was curiously bad OTT last week but great on APP. He’s way behind from a starting strokes standpoint but certainly has the complete game to climb the leaderboard. He starts at -1.

Hideki Matsuyama (6400) – A monster with the ball striking and simply needs to catch a good putter. It’s a tall order for Hideki to climb the Tour Championship leaderboard, but at this price I’m willing to invest (unless his ownership is prohibitive). He starts at -1.

Joaquin Niemann (5600) – With Berger and EVR likely garnering a ton of ownership, I’ll use Niemann as my GPP pivot. Niemann was great BS last week and was bad with the short game. I’m willing to take a chance on him to avoid some chalk (I do like Berger’s price so I will find a way to play him here and there despite his anticipated mega-chalk status). Niemann starts at -1.

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – Current record is 43-12. No SW with the short field and no cut.

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Daily Fantasy SportsPGA

PGA DFS Picks: BMW Championship

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

It’s Week 2 of the FedEx Cup playoffs, and our PGA DFS picks should help us find some winning teams at the BMW Championship!

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PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Smaller tournament field of top 70 (69 in the field) golfers in FedEx Cup points
  • No Cut
  • Stacked playoff field with even more on the line
  • The course: Caves Valley Golf Club (newer venue with not much history)
    • Par 72: 7,542 yards – designed by Tom Fazio
    • Fast A-4 Bentgrass greens and deep bunkers
    • Long course where driving distance is more important than usual
    • Bulk of par 3s are 220+ yards – one that requires carrying a pond the entire hole
    • Lots of long approaches at 175+ yards
    • The course has some wide-open spaces but adds a few interesting water hazards – holes 11 and 12 have large ponds flanking the right side of the hole
    • We need birdie makers and guys who rack up DK points because it’s a no cut event
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, SG: Off the Tee, Birdie or Better%, SG: Putting (Bentgrass) Par 4s Gained (450-500), Proximity from 200+ yards, Bogey Avoidance, Sand Saves

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Jon Rahm (DK $11,700) – He’s No. 1 on my mixed model and is the clear top dog and betting favorite, despite the final few holes at the Northern Trust that saw him slide into solo third place. That finish was good enough for his fourth straight top 10 and 12th of 2021. No reason to move away from him this week other than the possibility he’s carrying some frustration into the BMW.

Xander Schauffele (DK $11,100) – I like the idea of Xander getting a no-cut event on the heels of a weird week that saw him crack 70 only once – a second-round 62 that was a very short-lived tie for the course record. He’s the best option over $10K – albeit a pretty expensive one – that isn’t named Rahm.

Justin Thomas (DK $10,600) – No more discounts for JT, but I love him in GPPs, where his T2G game and ability to make birdies could help him rise to the occasion. He made 66 of 68 putts inside 10 feet last week, but never seemed to follow up his opening round 63 with lights-out play. Perhaps he’s ready to do that in the second week of the playoffs, when the stakes are a little higher.

Tony Finau (DK $9,800) – I joked last week (and so did the Breakdown crew) about how “he’s not much of a threat to win,” but could be a great to help you win a GPP. Well, he won the damn thing – and that confidence boost is just what’s been holding him back in final rounds over the past few years. There’s no way I’m fading him after that gutsy performance.

Also consider: Dustin Johnson (GPP), Cameron Smith

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Bryson DeChambeau (DK $9,300) – His distance and ability tot make putts seem tailored for this particular venue, and he shows up as second overall in my mixed model. While his inconsistency and preponderance to make bad decisions – and stupid bogeys – reared their ugly heads at Liberty National, he could dominate at Caves Valley, a venue where power and T2G precision are required. And I love the discount.

Patrick Cantlay (DK $9,200) – We mentioned last week that he prefers these A-24 Bentgrass greens, and that he’s third on tour in SG: T2G in 2021. Perhaps this week he can put it all together and climb up the leaderboards if a few more putts go down early. A great GPP play with Top 3 upside.

Viktor Hovland (DK $9,100) – A few days after a broken putter self-sabotaged his final round and tanked a lot of the WinDaily readership’s lineups, we should probably go right back to the ell with Hovland, who’s a T2G monster and normally seems pretty even-keeled on the golf course. With no real course history to look at, he doesn’t lose any advantage that more experienced tour veterans players would normally have.

Scottie Scheffler (DK $8,900) – Scheffler seems almost mispriced considering his upside and the way he checks all the boxes this week at Caves Valley. He’s sixth overall on my model and will be in all my single-entry GPP builds and up to 40 or 50 percent of my lineups. I love his chances to get a win here. Go get some exposure to the tall 25-year-old shining star with the great T2G game.

Corey Conners (DK $8,600) – The Canadian ball-striking sensation checks in at 15thoverall in my rankings, his putting woes and weak Driving Distance rankings the only things holding him back from the top 10. I’ll be a little more careful with him this week, maybe limiting my GPP ownership and using him in some crafty cash builds.

Sam Burns (DK $8,300) – Last week we didn’t seen Burns on too many ”top picks” lists, and while he didn’t do enough to help take down the large-field GPPs, he was T11 after three rounds at Liberty National and I love him again for that type of tournament this week. The T2G numbers aren’t excellent, but he’s got a bit of the Cameron Smith ability to bang it out there and clean things up by capitalizing on Par 5s and making a few more birdies than everybody else. He and Smith are actually right next to each other at Nos. 28 and 29 in my mixed model.

Paul Casey (DK $8,200) – Casey seems like the cash game play to Burns’ GPP analog, but I like him everywhere this week in a no-cut event at this discount price. The nicest guy on tour has the chops to live in the elite tier with the big boys in just about any tournament, and his proximity on approaches 200+ yards is one stat I really like.

Sungjae Im (DK $8,000) – I’m including Im here based on the detailed Breakdown that Sia, Joel and Spencer gave us this week – one of the things that got me interested in Finau last week. Im showed up 25th I my mixed model and while he has some momentum after a scrappy top 20, I was kind of on the fence until they touted him. The price is excellent and the upside is there on this golf course, where his T2G skills are at a premium.

Shane Lowry (DK $7,900) – Still a great price on Lowry! We talked about his top 5 upside last week and he was right there until a less-than-stellar back nine. The Irishman ranked sixth in SG: T2G for the week at Liberty National and should be priced well over $8K. Take advantage of that disrespect by rostering him in 25-30% (or more) of your lineups.

Keegan Bradley (DK $7,700) – He cracked the PGA Tour’s BMW Top 20 Power Rankings this week, which always provides a nice little glimpse of what could be some the chalkier PGA DFS plays for the week, but Sia really likes him and I’m intrigued by his excellent ball-striking and ability to hit good drives that aren’t that far back from the big boys.

Also consider: Rory McIlroy, Daniel Berger, Abraham Ancer, Webb Simpson Joaquin Niemann, Jason Kokrak (GPP)

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Cameron Tringale (DK $7,500) – Spencer likes Tringale this week and while I have harder time getting him right, it’s a fine time to go back to the well considering the veteran’s solid play over the past 36 rounds. I don’t love him most weeks, but he’s been consistent over the past four events (T14-T-26-T16 and T21 last week at Liberty National) and he can go really low some days.

Cameron Champ (DK $7,300) – Champ’s game has been rounding into better form and he’s exorcised some of the putting and short-game demons that plague his power-forward game. He’s gotten it done since a T11 at the John Deere Classic and his win at the 3M Open, which he capped with a bogey-free final round 66. Steer clear in cash games, but get some exposure in GPPs.

Jhonattan Vegas (DK $7,100) – Vegas is my favorite play in the low-$7K range because of his distance, OTT numbers and T2G metrics. In fact, he’s No. 13 in my model and the only $7K player in my top 15. I’ll be using him in my single-entry builds and a lot of GPPs. Sure, he might get chalky if we’re all sticking to our models and playing the optimals, but this is a truly great spot for him, especially with no cut and  guaranteed four cracks at this gettable golf course.

Maverick McNealy (DK $7,000) – We said last week that he really likes long golf courses and he ended up as both Sia’s Secret Weapon (SW) and my Bargain Blowout Baby (BBB), two low-ownership special Discord-exclusive perks that we divulge on Wednesday night for our premium subscribers. The T2G numbers are there and I think he’ll benefit from the smooth, fast Bentgrass greens this week as well.

Cameron Davis (DK $6,900) – Davis is only No. 32 in my mixed model, but I like the fact that he can plop one into the water, hit a rock and ricochet off a few things in the grandstands before landing 10 feet from the hole for an eventual eagle. Seriously – I like him in a no-cut event where he’ll have some leeway to spray it a bit and get back to the business of making birdies, where he’s eight in the field in BoB Gained.

Stewart Cink (DK $6,600) – Cink might end up being my BBB if his ownership is low enough, because no-cut events make it almost impossible to find non-chalky value under $7K and less than 5% ownership. So maybe no BBB this week, but I’ll have shares of Cink for his length off the tee and “veteran tour grinder” makeup. But he’ll be well under 10% for my overall exposure.

More value golfers to consider: Harold Varner, Charley Hoffman (GPP), Branden Grace, Marc Leishman (GPP), Sebastian Munoz (GPP), Carlos Ortiz (GPP)

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Keith Mitchell (DK $6,500) – We can load up on long hitters like Mitchell a bit more this week, but I suspect he’ll be popular after his epically clutch finish at Liberty National to make the top 70. Plenty to like about his game heading into a venue that requires length OTT.

Ryan Palmer (DK $6,400) – Palmer is long enough, and he could fly under-the-radar this week, so I’ll be getting 10-15% exposure in my large-field GPPs. Perfect last piece for medium stars-and-scrubs builds. Maybe this is the week he surprises and sneaks into the top 15.

Patton Kizzire (DK $6,200) – Kizzire is a little riskier but benefits from the no-cut format and the perks of DK scoring, where birdies and eagles (and streaks) are king. I worry about his ability to find fairways and greens, but there’s upside in his power-and-putting game.

Hudson Swafford (DK $6,000) – The super-risky Swafford only makes sense as a last piece on extreme stars-and-scrubs, but the DK scoring rules and guaranteed four rounds are his friend this week. We know he’s a dynamic player who can get really hot, go low and win tournaments when they are ripe for scoring.

Additional GPP punts: Emiliano Grillo, Aaron Wise, Talor Gooch, Tom Hoge

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Daily Fantasy SportsPGA

PGA DFS Picks: Northern Trust at Liberty National

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the PGA Tour’s Northern Trust helping you find some winning teams in GPPs!

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PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Smaller tournament field of top 125 golfers in FedEx Cup points
  • Cut: Top 65 and ties after 36 holes
  • Stacked playoff field with lots on the line
  • The course: Liberty National (Rotating venue with Boston)
    • Par 71: 7,410 yards – designed by Robert E. Cupp and Tom Kite
    • Links-style except for greens – and right on the Hudson River in NJ/NY area
    • Smaller but fast A-4 Bentgrass greens that really benefit guys who prefer that surface
    • T2G efficiency required here
    • Form seems to be important based on previous winners
    • Over 31% of approach shots come from 200+ yards, but TOUR average is only around 23%
  • Defending champ: Dustin Johnson (-30 at TPC Boston)
  • 2019 Champ (@ Liberty National): Patrick Reed (-16) over Abraham Ancer (-15)
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, SG: Off the Tee, SG: Around the Green, SG: Putting (Bentgrass) Par 4s Gained (450-500), Proximity from 200+ yards, Bogey Avoidance

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Jon Rahm (DK $11,500) – The No. 1 player in the world hasn’t played much lately since he was forced to withdraw from the Olympics after another positive COVID test. But his win at the U.S. Open and T3 at Royal St. George’s are proof positive he’s the frontrunner in the playoffs, and his complete T2G game and masterful short game combine to check all the boxes here. With pricing up, I like him best for GPP, but if you can find a cash lineup with him that you like, I wouldn’t blow it up.

Dustin Johnson (DK $11,000) – According to the PGA Tour stats, DJ was 23.53 total strokes better than the field average last year at TPC Boston when he ran away with the Northern Trust at -30. It was the third time he had gained 20 or more strokes en route to victory, and the change of venue shouldn’t hurt his game. He’s eighth in this field at Proximity from approaches 200+ yards over his last 36 rounds, he putts better on Bentgrass, and he makes for a great GPP play this week.

Jordan Spieth (DK $10,800) – Only a handful of players have been better at the 450-500 yard Par 4s over the past 36 rounds (solid GPP options Collin Morikawa and Rory McIlroy are a couple of them), and none of them can putt like Spieth can. Normally I wouldn’t look Spieth’s way for a cash game build in a field this good, but Sia really sung his praises in the excellent WinDaily Breakdown video, and Jordan has had such a great 2021 that I think I’m using him in cash and single entry as well as GPP.

Justin Thomas (DK $9,800) – JT hasn’t put it all together in a while (his last win was at the Players and he had lackluster finishes in the most recent majors) but he’s shown an affinity for playoff golf in the past and he’s tops in the field in SG: T2G over his last 24 rounds on courses over 7,400 yards in length. He was T12 here in 2019 and this is a good spot to jump back on the JT wagon in GPPs.

Also consider: Collin Morikawa, Rory McIlroy (GPP), Bryson DeChambeau (Cash), Viktor Hovland

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Abraham Ancer (DK $9,400) – The freshly minted PGA Tour winner (WGC-FedEx St. Jude) was runner-up of this event at Liberty National in 2019, and he’s got to be brimming with confidence after the huge breakthrough in Memphis at TPC Southwind. Ancer is fourth overall in my mixed model and I’ll have exposure in my GPPs despite the inflated price this week.

Scottie Scheffler (DK $9,300) – Scheffler could be described as a decent putter, and that’s probably the weakest part of his game these days. He’s posted top 15 finishes in six of his last eight events and he thrives on long golf courses like this. There’s a bunch of golfers to like in this price range, but Scottie could be the sneakiest once again.

Patrick Cantlay (DK $9,200) – While I have an aversion to Cantlay in PGS DFS and he had a really rough stretch earlier this year, there’s no denying that he’s played much better golf since the PGA Championship, when he finished T23 and won in his next start at the Memorial. He prefers these A-24 Bentgrass greens, is third on tour in SG: T2G in 2021 and he finished T12 here in 2019.

Harris English (DK $8,800) – English has been stellar over the past three months, winning the Travelers at TPC River Highlands, finishing solo third at the U.S. Open, and posting top 15s in five of his last seven tournaments. He’s coming off a solo fourth at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude and I can’t find a reason to dislike him at Liberty National, even if he ends up at a really popular play.

Patrick Reed (DK $8,600) – Reed won here in 2019, and in true Captain America form went 3-1-1 when the Presidents Cup was played at this venue in 2017. He missed the cut at the Open Championship and has had some trouble keeping the ball in the fairway lately, but he’s a brilliant playoff competitor and a great GPP pivot from the more popular players in this price range.

Adam Scott (DK $8,400) – Scott missed an easy birdie putt and lost in that epic six-man playoff a week ago after firing a five-under 65 in the final round of the Wyndham Championship, but his ascent up the FedEx cup standings was impressive enough for lots of golf writers to pick him to win this week. He has course history behind him, with a fifth-place finish in 2019 and a win in 2013.

Tony Finau (DK $8,200) – I’ve been burned many times by Finau but I’m adding him to my player pool based on Joel Schreck and Spencer Aguiar’s recommendation in the Breakdown. A closer look at his numbers shows he’s good at avoiding three-putts and his SG ARG numbers have improved. He’s not much of a threat to win, but he could be that value guy who finishes top 10 and helps you secure a GPP win.

Sam Burns (DK $8,000) – I haven’t seen Burns on too many ”top picks” lists this week, but he’s showing up in my mixed model and he’s coming off a blistering 64 in the final round at TPC Southwind that got him int a playoff with Ancer. He’s awesome off the tee, can get really hot with the putter, and the fact that nobody’s talking about him make me love him for large-field GPPs.

Tyrrell Hatton (DK $7.800) – Hatton will be a lot chalkier than Burns, but the price is way too low for what he gives you on courses this length. He’s sprinkled in some bad performances with a few top 20s, and he’s No. 17 on my mixed model, in large part due to how well he handles the 200+ approaches and A-4 Bentgrass. He’s a solid option in all formats.

Jason Kokrak (DK $7,700) – I had lots of Kokrak last week when he missed the cut at the Wyndham Championship, but there wasn’t anything on the line then and I’m going back to the well this week with some exposure in GPPs. I don’t want to be one week off and have no shares, but I’m not going overboard.

Also consider: Daniel Berger (Cash), Webb Simpson, Paul Casey (GPP), Joaquin Niemann, Sungjae Im, Brian Harman, Ian Poulter, Russell Henley

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Shane Lowry (DK $7,500) – What a great price on Lowry! The 2019 Open champ is 20th overall in my mixed model and checks most if not all of the boxes in our focus stat categories this week. The form is good, he’s solid on all types of golf courses, and he’s got top 5 upside.

Cameron Tringale (DK $7,300) – I’ve been overconfident with Tringale a few times in PGA DFS, but I really like mixing in a few shares of him this week in GPPs based on where he finishes in my mixed model (ninth overall) and his solid numbers on longer approaches.

Seamus Power (DK $7,000) – Power will likely garner some ownership at this price, so if you’re getting skittish you can pivot elsewhere in GPPs – you can follow Sia’s lead and work in a guy like Charley Hoffman. But Power has been playing much better golf lately and works as a low-cost option.

Maverick McNealy (DK $6,900) – He really likes long golf coursesand was one of the first names I noticed under $7K with good SG: T2G numbers in his last 14 rounds. His SG: APP numbers leave a bit to be desired, but he’s really good off the tee and he can make some long putts.

Charl Schwartzel (DK $6,900) – Schwartzel fares well in my model (No. 33 overall) and seems to step up his game in stiffer competition. He also overperforms on long courses and should fare well at Liberty National, as the overall layout seems to favor his game.

C.T. Pan (DK $6,600) – I’ve seen some folks throw out Aaron Wise as another golfer with this price to consider, but if I’m leaning contrarian here, I’d do it with a Bronze medalist who’s coming off four rounds in the 60s. Pan is a sneaky contrarian play on longer courses and I like his chances to make the cut and spike a Top 25.

More value golfers to consider: Kevin Streelman, Bubba Watson (GPP), Jason Day (GPP), Max Homa, Charley Hoffman (GPP), Carlos Ortiz (GPP), Talor Gooch, Brendan Todd, Chris Kirk, Pat Perez, Erik van Rooyen (GPP), Aaron Wise (GPP)

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Matt Wallace (DK $6,500) – He checks a few important boxes this week (450-500 yard Par 4s and overall performance on long courses) and he’s solid around the greens and in wind. Wallace almost cracks the Top 20 in my mixed model this week so I’ll be mixing him into two or three GPPS in my 20 max builds.

Luke List (DK $6,400) – I’m always drawn to List when he’s cheap, but he’s strictly GPP only because he can implode on the greens. He’s scary to roster, so keep your ownership reasonably low (under 10%).

Hank Lebioda (DK $6,300) – Sia’s boy Hammerin’ Hank has a decent overall game and is a good ball striker. He offers plenty of value and should be a staple of stars-and-scrubs builds.

Additional GPP punts: K.H. Lee, Dylan Frittelli, Chez Reavie, Matt Kuchar, Doug Ghim, Harry Higgs

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PGA

The Northern Trust: Initial Picks

Sia
written by Sia

Welcome to the first round of the FedEx Cup Playoffs. The Northern Trust features the Top 124 in the standings (125 minus Louis) and it is therefore a field that is packed with talent. This course will require all features of the golf game to be firing which means to be successful you’ll need to be good with the short and long game. We will talk plenty about course dymanics and metrics on tonight’s PGA Livestream with Joel and Spencer and myself so tune in at 8:00 EST for that. And now let’s get to the picks for The Northern Trust.

Jon Rahm (11500) – Just like anyone else, Rahm can sometimes have a bad putting tournament but he is absolutely elite in every other department.  Only thing that can stop this guy in 2021 is Covid.  Tough to play him at this price, but if that keeps his ownership down, I’m all aboard.

Jordan Spieth (10800) – The only knock on Spieth is that his long iron game hasn’t been clicking on all cylinders, but outside off that he checks all the boxes.  Last 36 rounds he’s Number 1 in this field in the following categories that I’ve put into my model:  BOB Gained, SG Par 5 and Draftking points.  He’s also inside the Top 15 in the following categories:  APP, PUTT, ARG, T2G, P4 450-500 and Bogey Avoidance.  He’s got the all around game you’re looking for.

Abraham Ancer (9400) – The only issue with Ancer in this tournament is that you’re obviously buying the stock at its height as he’s coming off a win at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude.  With that said, he’s been in good form for a while and has all-around game that we are looking for with the Ball Striking and the short game.

Scottie Scheffler (9300) – This guy hasn’t lost strokes ball striking since the Reagan Administration.  He’s also 2nd in this field in BOB gained over the Last 36 rounds. Plenty of upside here at The Northern Trust.

Webb Simpson (8900) – Webb was a pick of ours last week because he had great course history and because it looked like he had finally turned a corner.  He may not be the best course fit this week, but the corner appears to have been turned which makes this the right price.

Paul Casey (8700) – Seems like a very fair price for a golfer who is in great form and also has the all-around game to compete at this course.  He’s great with the long irons and is actually a much better scorer than most people think as the last 36 rounds establish:  15th in BOB gained, 2nd in SG Par 5, 8th in DK Points and 2nd T2G.  If he gets super popular then he may be relegated to cash only, but for now he can be used in both formats.

Jason Kokrak (7700) – Another golfer that has the upside to smash his soft price and who can pile up the DFS points in a hurry.  His main issue is the SG ARG, but even with that he is still inside the Top 20 in my model (with the upside to finish much higher than that).

Shane Lowry (7500) – Lowry has some flaws OTT and with the PUTT but he really makes up for it on APP.  If he can get things going OTT then I think he can be inside the Top 10 at the close of this tournament.  A GPP play with some upside here.

Brendan Grace (7200) – Much like Lowry, he can be a little erratic OTT, but he makes up for it with great APP play and he can sometimes get red-hot with the putter.  He has finished inside the Top 10 in 3 of his last 5 tournaments so the upside is there to finish high at The Northern Trust.

Charley Hoffman (7000) – He hasn’t played much golf at all lately and I think the time off will help him get back on track.  Hoffman is a consummate ball striker, and quite frankly, does everything well.  If he were coming in with some recent play and good form under his belt, he’d be priced 1000 dollars higher.  I’m happy to take this leap.

Charl Schwartzl (6900) – The DFS community is sophisticated enough to not jump off of a guy due to an MC, but we’ll need to wait and see what happens with Charl after his very poor showing last week.  He’s been in good form overall and I think he’s a value at this price in spite of burning plenty of lineups last week.  A GPP consideration only.

Hank Lebioda (6300) – the metrics are starting to slip a bit for this DFS Darling, but he still rates out as 50th in my model.  He’s pretty weak OTT but he rates out above average on everything else I looked at. 

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – Current record is 42-12. See you in Discord. 

If you haven’t already, subscribe to Win Daily Sports on YouTube and at the Apple Podcasts and check out all the content at windailysports.com. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday night for all Northern Trust lineup adjustments, late breaking news and weather reports.

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PGA

The Wyndham Championship: Initial Picks

Sia
written by Sia

The last week of the regular season wraps up in North Carolina at the Wyndham Championship. Some of the golfers will be chasing down the top FedEx Cup prize while others will be simply trying to get into the Top 125. This week we have a pretty straightforward course that will play short and relatively easy. I’ll be focused on hitting fairways, being great on APP and being a good putter. Distance OTT and ARG are not big factors this week. More on course dynamics and on all the players in the field on tonight’s PGA Livestream at 8:00 EST. Now let’s get to the Initial Picks for the Wyndham Championship.

Louis Ooshtuizen (10700) – King Louis has been playing very well and if not for a poor Day 4 at the WGC, he would have had his 4th Top 5 in a row.  Louis makes birdies, is a great putter and is great on APP.  The two main drawbacks are he can be a little erratic OTT (but I don’t expect that to be a problem here) and he has no course history whatsoever.  If you’re looking for pivots in this range I think Hideki and Zalatoris will be far less owned than Louis and Webb (below).

Webb Simpson (10600) – Webb has the best course history at the Wyndham Championship that I’ve ever seen (outside of Tiger Woods there is no golfer that dominates any course like Webb dominates this course).  His game has been a little off but it appears that he found some confidence last week and appears highly motivated to charge into the FedEx Cup playoffs with a Wyndham Championship win under his belt.

Russell Henley (9400) – I’m not inlove with this 9k range but I do think Henley sets up well for this course.  Other than an MC at the Open he has played well (Top 20s in the three tournaments prior to the Open).  Henley can keep it in the fairway, is elite on APP and appears to be rebounding from a stretch of bad putting. 

Seamus Power (8500) – Looking for a ball striker who has a recent outright win and is allergic to finishing outside of the Top 20?  Perfect!  He also happens to rank 2nd in the field in Birdie or Better Gained percentage over the last 24 rounds (Kizzire ranks 1st but not a part of this Initial Picks article).

Kevin Streelman (8300) – Not much by way of course history, but I like the course fit and specifically like his APP numbers.  The formula this week is to keep in the fairway, be great on APP (especially from 150-175) and get hot with the putter.  Streelman can do all those things.  He does carry some volatility so only a GPP play for me this week.

Charl Schwartzl (8100) – His weakness is typically ARG and that shouldn’t hurt him here.  His BS and finishing positions have been solid and he’s no stranger to a hot putter.  I should note that he doesn’t rate out very well in the more important proximities (125-175) and therefore I may consider him for GPP only, especially if he’s low owned.

Mito Pereira (7900) – Very impressive start to this young man’s career. His ball striking has been excellent and he simply needs an average putter in order to outperform his soft pricetag.  I should note the 7k range is rich with value and although Vegas and Kizzire did not make the Initial Picks cut, I do think they carry plenty of upside (my concern was staying in the fairway OTT).

Hank Lebioda (7600) – He had to WD at the 3M due to a family emergency but he was on his way to making yet another cut.  The ball striking has been good, the putter has been hot and he is 5th in BOB gained over last 24 rounds.  The finishes have also been great for Lebioda (3 Top 10s in a row prior to the 3M WD) and if he once again finds a hot putter, well, see you on Sunday afternoon.

Chez Reavie (7400) – Reavie has been inconsistent this season but should find comfort at The Wyndham Championship as it appears to suit his game.  With that said, his history here isn’t great so be careful.  I’m leaning on his ball striking (significant BS gains over the last 6 measured rounds) and hoping for the best with the putter.   

Ryan Armour (7000) – He checks quite a few boxes as he is a great Wyndham Championship course fit (keeps it in the fairway, good on APP and good with the putter), has good course history and is in good form.  He is a great value play here and likely to be popular.  If you’re interested in some pivots I think Brendon Todd and Doc Redman will be low owned with upside.

Henrik Norlander (6600) – The ball striking has been good since May, but we were still waiting for the putter to come around as it was struggling the entire year.  Well, he’s gained with the putter in 5 of his last 6 tournaments and in his last 4 in a row.  Pair that with what has become elite ball striking since the Palmetto and you have some upside with Norlander.  I have at least four others to consider in this 6k range which I will be happy to share in Discord and on our PGA Livestream tonight.

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – Current record is 41-12. See you in Discord. 

If you haven’t already, subscribe to Win Daily Sports on YouTube and at the Apple Podcasts and check out all the content at windailysports.com. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday night for all lineup adjustments, late breaking news and weather reports.

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PGA

The CJ Cup: Initial Picks

Sia
written by Sia

The CJ Cup: Initial Picks

Two weeks in Vegas sounds like a bad idea, but here we are at a no-cut event in Shadow Creek.  This is a new location for the CJ Cup which normally takes place in South Korea.  Therefore, you can go ahead and ignore prior history as it was not on this course. We have also already seen DJ and Tony Finau withdraw the the event. Shadow Creek is characterized as a long course but the length is minimized by the altitude.  There are plenty of water hazards and the rough may be high so you’re going to want some accuracy with your length and good play around the green will also prove to be helpful here, so here are our The CJ Cup: Initial Picks. Don’t forget to join the Livestream TONIGHT (Tuesday) at 8:00 EST.

Jon Rahm (11300) – Hard to pick among the upper crust this week as they are all very deserving to be put in your lineups, but I prefer Rahm’s all around game, particularly what he can do OTT.  Justin Thomas is my honorable mention as far as my favorite top play.

Xander Schaufele (10300) – Looking for good all around game and Xander checks all the boxes.  He has also been in great form which includes a 5th place at the U.S. Open.

Matthew Wolff (10000) – I would normally be a bit hesitant to take a guy who just lost in a playoff, but I don’t think anything really affects the former rookie class of Wolff, Morikawa and Hovland.  They certainly don’t seem like the new kids on the block and I’ll be on them again this week.  Wolff’s ownership likely to be high.

Tyrell Hatton (9600) – Coming off a win last week in Europe, Hatton is a guy that can go low on any given day.  He’s in good form and he gains strokes in every metric with APP being the best of those metrics.  Ownership may be down a bit because Hatton just won and had to travel quite a bit in the last couple of days. 

Collin Morikawa (9500) – I’m guessing Collin’s stock is dipping now that he’s starting to miss cuts and that means it’s the perfect time to take him.  I must admit, I’m a touch worried about his game right now, but it wouldn’t shock me at all if he turns it around on his home turf in Vegas.

Viktor Hovland (9000) – An incredible ball striker who still has a questionable short game.  Definitely willing to gamble on this guy as right now he’s probably the most forgotten of the ‘Rookie Three’ and I think it’s a good time to pick up shares.  His ownership is tracking at well below that of Wolff and Morikawa but still above 10%.

Abraham Ancer (8200) – Ancer was pretty terrible down the stretch of last season, but seems to have recalibrated last week with a 4th place finish.  This guy seems to start FedEx Cup seasons well and he should be a good course fit with his OTT and APP game.

Brendan Todd (7900) – Certainly not long OTT but always seems to be around on Sundays.   Ownership should be low as there are plenty of ‘sexier’ options in this range.

Russell Henley (7100) – Good enough OTT and great on APP and gains ARG.  Henley has been particularly good on APP recently.  Henley may have limited upside but has the game to put up scores that outpace his price.

Ryan Palmer (6700) – I have no issue jamming Palmer into a lineup in a no-cut event.  He’s usually good for at least one great day (and one very bad one) and that’s the type of scenario that could really pay off this week. 

Adam Hadwin (6700) – Great ball striker who has a great track record in the desert.  He shot super low last Saturday and followed it up with a bad Sunday.  The bad Sunday (and resulting 34th place finish) is hopefully what most will remember and that should keep ownership low.

Secret Weapon – See you in Discord.

Thanks for checking out my The CJ Cup: Initial Picks! Don’t forget to join us tonight, check out the other great articles up on Win Daily Sports, and please also subscribe to the Win Daily Podcast!

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PGA

Shriners: Initial Picks

Sia
written by Sia

Shriners: Initial Picks

We finally have a legitimate field of stars here at the Shriners and it appears that we have value in all pricing tiers. I have isolated my Initial Picks, but I can assure you we will have many more on the Livestream TONIGHT at 8:00 and in Discord up until Thursday morning. Please tune in tonight and good luck this week. Here are is the Shriners: Initial Picks.

Bryson DeChambeau (11800) – There’s no such thing as a lock button guy in golf, but this is pretty close.  His game fits this course quite well, he’s been on fire lately and he’s got a great track record at this course.  His price is the only downside, but you’re going to want plenty of shares.  Bryson will likely be owned at over 20% this week so clearly his price tag is not dissuading players from selecting him.  A lock in cash, but if you want to fade him in a big GPP, I have no issue with it.

Tony Finau (10200) – Yes, I passed right over the guy (Patrick Cantlay) who has finished 2nd, 2nd and 1st his last three years at this event, but I’m going to pivot to Finau who also comes in great form and has a solid track record at this event (including a Top 10 last year).  I’m assuming the expensive salary will keep his ownership at 15% or below.

Matthew Wolff (9600) – Had a top 20 finish last year in his first time at the Shriner’s.  That’s not terribly impressive but Wolff’s game suits this course very well and he’s been on fire as of late (Top 5 finishes in his last two majors).  Wolff is finally being priced up with Morikawa and for good reason.  Interestingly, it looks like Wolff’s ownership will be higher than Morikawa by a significant margin (tracking at 22% versus 15% as of now). 

Sergio Garcia (9100) – Not a huge fan of selecting the winner from the week prior, but this seems like a reasonable price for a guy that is great T2G and who may have figured out some of his putting issues last week.   Sergio’s projected ownership looks to be tracking at less than 7% and he is therefore a nice GPP pivot from many of the other golfers in this range.

Cam Davis (8200) – A long hitter who can get hot at any moment, as evidenced by last week’s Round 3 of nine under (7 birdies and 1 eagle including 5 birdies in a row).   Davis usually fizzles on Sundays but if he gets to Sunday, he’s likely to pay off his price tag.  Be careful in GPP’s with Davis as he is tracking at approximately 25% ownership which is enormous in this range.  You can play him in GPP’s, just be mindful of the chalk and be different elsewhere.  A great cash play.

Joaquin Neimann (8100) –  The ball striking metrics are there for Joaquin, but he is certainly a hit or miss prospect this week.  Going with the upside that he flashed at the BMW (3rd place) and he remains in relatively good form with a 23rd at the U.S. Open.  At less than 10% projected ownership, he’s a nice GPP pivot from Cam Davis (Ancer is another good pivot in the 8k range as his ownership is below 10% as of now).

Denny McCarthy (7600) – Finished 6th last week and has two Top 15’s in his last two attempts at the Shriners.  His ball striking metrics have been very good as of late and he is a great putter.  Good value at the price.

Kristoffer Ventura (7100) – His recent strokes gained metrics jump off the page.  Outside of some somewhat shaky APP play, he’s been knocking the metrics out of the park.  He’s also finished Top 8 in two out of his last three tournaments.  Finished 18th here last year.

Henrik Norlander (6900) – An absolute boom or bust play.  He has been bad lately, but finally emerged from the abyss last week with a 4th place at Sanderson.  We saw the upside with Norlander right after the re-start so we know he has it in him.

Tyler Duncan (6700) – Duncan has been a bit erratic lately with the driver and the putter but his APP game is fantastic.  The rough shouldn’t be too penal here so maybe his APP game bails him out and maybe he finds the putter.  When you get into the 6k range you need to play the ‘maybe’ card from time to time, and I’m happy to do that with Duncan.

Sepp Straka (6500) – Coming off a missed cut last week, but here we have a golfer that typically gains OTT and on APP and doesn’t have a terrible putter.  Plenty of boom upside with Straka.

JB Holmes (6400) – On absolutely nobody’s radar but he did make the cut last week and unfortunately had a horrific Sunday.  I’m willing to lean a bit on pre-injury pedigree for Holmes with the knowledge that I’m dipping into a dangerous area in the 6k range.

Don’t forget to join us TONIGHT at 8:00 for the Win Daily PGA Livestream with Michael Rasile, Joel Schrek and myself. Don’t forget to also subscribe to the Win Daily Podcast and the Win Daily YouTube channel. See you tonight!

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PGA

BMW Championship – Initial Picks

Sia
written by Sia

BMW Championship – Initial Picks

Down to the final 70 players for the FedEx Cup which means two things:  there is no cut and most of the field will be gunning to get into the Top 30 to qualify for the final event.  We will have way more on this tournament from the WinDaily team within the next 24 hours, and of course, we will be bringing you the Livestream tonight (Tuesday night) at 8:30 pm with Michael Rasile and Joel Schrek.  The Livestream will also feature 1st Round Leader bets, outright bets and matchups. Here are our BMW Championship – Initial Picks.

Justin Thomas (10800) – JT checks all the boxes.  Before the restart I dubbed JT the best player in the world and I think he finishes the FedEx Cup on top when it’s all said and done.  Since the restart JT leads the field T2G.  He didn’t have a great tournament with the putter last week, but expect a rebound in that department.

Webb Simpson (10100) – Doesn’t get the respect he deserves and that is absolutely fine with me as I will keep firing.  He’s in great form and coming off a 3rd and a 6th place finish.   I have no issue if you want to start your team in this range.

Scottie Scheffler (9000) – We’ve always known that Scottie can pile up DFS points, but now he is actually contending among the elite tier of golfers.  He has been the best player T2G over the last month.  His price continues to creep upward but he’s still worth the pricetag considering the form he is in.

Tony Finau (8700) – We know Finau can get hot and go low and we also know that he can buckle under pressure.  Therefore, a no cut event would appear to be a good situation for Tony and at this price he doesn’t need to be Top 3 to justify the selection.  I will point out that he is 29th in the FedEx Cup Standings.

Adam Scott (8200) – Very unimpressive 58th place last week, but he can attribute some of the poor days to a lack of play since the restart.  With that said, he’s finally playing two tournaments in a row and he sits at 36th in the FedEx Cup standings.  I think Scott will be particularly dialed into making that Top 30 and I expect a good showing.

Matthew Wolff (8200) – Shot a laughable 77 on Saturday at the Northern Trust but had a nice rebound performance on Sunday with a 67.  Wolff, Morikawa and Hovland are only a handful of players that actually have some recent experience on this course (from their amateur days which were literally just two years ago) and I expect all three of them to play well here again. 

Viktor Hovland (8100) – With only 70 players in the field I’m looking for a golfer that can get hot on any given day and Hovland continues to prove that he can do that.   The reason I have selected only two of the Fab three (I have excluded Morikawa) is simply a product of value and that is exactly what you’re getting with Hovland.

Ryan Palmer (7600) – Yes he will have the occasional blow up rounds but he has been very good since the restart, including four made cuts in a row with two Top 10’s in that span.  It’s interesting to note that Abraham Ancer (7700) has played the same exact last four tournaments as Ryan Palmer (Northern Trust, PGA, WGC and Memorial) and Ancer’s best finish during that span is 15th and his other three finishes were MC, 43rd and 58th). 

Talor Gooch (6600) – I was on the Gooch last week and it paid off with an 18th place finish.  He’s been Top 25 in his last two and appears to be on the rise.  Definitely value at this price.

Secret Weapon (sub 7k/less than 5%) – At some point I’m going to be wrong on the SW pick, but it’s been two months and it hasn’t happened yet.  See you in Discord for the next installment.

Thrive Fantasy

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