DraftKings

MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 6/5

With the Yankees playing at 11:35 this Sunday, we don’t have to worry about them being chalk but the pitching is pretty interesting. There are two pitchers that are a clear step above the rest of the slate although at least one of them has some slight questions around him. Let’s get into those two and more in the MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 6/5 to see who’s leading the charge to green again!

Aces

Lucas Giolito 

Giolito gets the Rays matchup we’ve been chasing all weekend since they’re not healthy and have been so bad against righty pitching in the past two weeks and Giolito isn’t someone who will let them up off the ground. He has a change and a slider that both have whiff rates of at least 38% and the changeup has 22 strikeouts, matching the four-seam fastball. Tampa is 24th when facing the fastball and the changeup both, leaving a pathway wide open for Giolito. He’s due some regression to the 2.95 xFIP from his 3.61 EA and the K rate is 33.3% to go along with a 14.8% swinging-strike rate. Giolito has had some issues with the long ball this year with a 1.70 HR/9 but the Rays are only 18th in total homers so far this season. The wOBA against righties looks scary as all get out with a .405 mark but the BABIP is .383 and his xFIP is still only 3.53. A power threat like Randy Arozarena could make sense as a one-off from the right side but lefties have a 41.1% K rate, a 2.61 FIP, and a .249 wOBA. The Rays lineup currently doesn’t give me much pause when playing Giolito. I fully assume he’s going to be major chalk at his salary of just $9,600 on DK. 

Kevin Gausman 

The big question for Gausman is the strikeouts because they have been far less reliable in the past five starts. He has hit eight strikeouts twice but he’s also had five, five, and three and those numbers don’t exactly cut it when you’re paying this salary. It hasn’t even been a strikeout per inning and I do wonder if some of that has been from maybe using the slider too much? That pitch is sort of a paradox. It generates a higher whiff rate at 50% than the splitter at 44.4% but it has just three strikeouts. In the two games that he hit eight strikeouts, Gausman threw the slider 5.7% and 3.1%. There could be a fine line between getting a whiff and still having his splitter be the putaway pitch with 49 strikeouts. Gausman is still getting a massive swinging-strike rate at 16.9% and his splits are dynamite as well. Neither side has an xFIP over 2.96 and righties are striking out 33.3% of the time. The BABIP is still ridiculous at .452 so I’m still very much into the idea of pitching Gausman, even with the strikeouts not being there as much lately. His salary could leave him less popular, presenting an opportunity in GPP. 

Framber Valdez

It’s hard not to love Valdez in this spot as he’s pitched 7.2, seven, seven, and nine innings in his last four and has given up a total of six earned runs while striking out 24 hitters. Through the month of May alone, he held hitters to a 2.30 ERA, and a .251 wOBA, and the K rate has stayed stagnant at 19.5%. The Royals could help out that rate as in the last two weeks, they have whiffed over 25% when facing a lefty. They haven’t handled that side of the mound as over the entire course of the season, they rank 27th in wRC+, 28th in wOBA, ISO, OPS, and they are 24th in OBP. We’re not exactly banking on 10 strikeouts here and he doesn’t have a Hughe strikeout pitch since the curve is responsible for 27 strikeouts and a 34.4% whiff rate. Kansas City is only 13th when facing the curve this year and they’re in the top 10 in ground ball rate. That’s a big part of the puzzle since Valdez has a 65.7% ground ball rate and that helps him get deeper into the game. Neither side of the plate is over a .270 wOBA and it’s hard to see where the damage comes from when facing this Royal lineup. 

Zac Gallen 

I do believe that Gallen is a step below anyone else in this tier as he’s not made it to the sixth inning in the past three starts and the K rate is under 25%. Sure, Valdez is as well but he’s got a much better chance to go further into the game based on what we’ve seen this season. There’s also the fact that the 2.32 ERA doesn’t match the 3.63 xFIP although the rest of the profile looks pretty strong. Gallen has a hard-hit rate under 25%, the HR/9 is 0.54, and the ground ball rate is 48.5%. Pittsburgh is only 18th against the fastball and that is a boost for Gallen since he throws it 48.3% of the time and it has a .250 wOBA along with 22 strikeouts even with just a 16% whiff rate. His splits are a bit of a mixed bag since lefties have a .188 wOBA but just a 20.7% K rate while the righties have a 27.4% K rate but also a .291 wOBA. With Pittsburgh ranking 21st or lower in all of our offensive categories, Gallen shouldn’t be ignored as he might be in line for some strikeouts since the Bucs have a 24.9% K rate when facing a righty. 

Honorable Mention 

Eric Lauer is on the radar, but there are some “troubling” trends in his profile. So, Lauer kind of came out of nowhere, and in the first month or so, he whiffed 36.6% of the hitters he faced. That is a massive shift in his 22.4% career K rate and we’re talking nearly a 400 IP sample before the 2022 season started. In the month of May, the K rate went down to 23.5% and that made a whole lot more sense compared to where he’s always been at. Lauer still pitched well with a 2.96 ERA but the FIP/xFIP combo was at least 4.21with a HR/9 of 1.65 and I believe we can utilize some of the Padres offense before we’d look to pitch him. 

Everyone Else 

I believe the star of this tier and possibly the cash SP2 is going to be Luis Castillo, hot off a start where he scored 35 DK against the Boston Red Sox. I always dislike chasing strikeouts for a pitcher facing the Nationals since they only whiff 20.5% of the time against righty pitching. However, this same lineup is 19th in wOBA and wRC+ and they are only 23rd in ISO. Castillo has a 30.4% whiff rate or higher on his change and four-seam (they have 22 of his 28 strikeouts) and the changeup is the clearest path to success since it’s his primary pitch and Washington is dead last against it. Castillo has also quietly pitched fairly well with a 50.7% ground ball rate, a 26.7% K rate, and a FIP/xFIP combo under 2.95. Lefties are not going to earn a .376 wOBA all season since they have a .345 BABIP, but a chalky (potentially) Castillo seems dangerous. He’s the one I feel most “comfortable” with as far as the metrics lead us but the gut doesn’t feel great about him. 

At first glance, this isn’t the slate that I’m overly excited about anyone. Mike Clevinger is back and he pitched well in his last start before injury. However, a right triceps injury for a righty that is coming off a major arm surgery absolutely freaks me out at $8,800. The Brewers do have a higher K rate against righties at 23.8% but Clevinger and his 25.4% K rate seem like he could blow up in our face. Perhaps we’ll get some type of pitch count in the morning. 

I was excited for Jakob Junis in the first month and thought maybe the Giants were onto something with him, but the month of May was not kind to him. The ERA jumped to 3.67, the wOBA went up 80 points to .289, and the FIP is 4.59. If that wasn’t enough, the Marlins are eighth when facing a slider and Junis is using that pitch right about 55% of the time. 

There is a small chance I could turn to Kyle Gibson as a punt, but he has to draw the correct lineup. Last night, the Angels had five hitters that hit lefty and if that happens again, I’m out. Gibson has an 11.7% K rate and 5.08 xFIP when facing a lefty. However, his K rate when facing righties jumps up to 29.2%, the xFIP plummets to 2.21, and the Angels whiff at a top-three rate in baseball at 24.9%. The draw is paramount before we can even consider him. 

Stacks

Blue Jays

Giants

Reds

Angels LHH

D-Backs

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 6/5 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 6/3

Everywhere you look tonight, there is an ace on the mound! That is a bit of an exaggeration but we have a ton of elite arms to pick from tonight and there are some just outside that elite category that is priced like average pitchers. Let’s get right to it with a 12-game slate tonight in the MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 6/3!

Aces

Gerrit Cole 

This is one of the best spots Cole could ask for based on this season since he has a 30.8% K rate, a 15.6% swinging-strike rate, and the Tigers strike out 24.2% of the time. It has been worse in the past 14 days and the Tigers also have the highest chase rate (31.8%) and they have the fifth-highest whiff rate. His xFIP is still just 2.75 and the HR/9 is down to 0.94, the lowest since 2018. Both sides of the plate whiff at least 27.8% of the time and the main pitch for Cole is the four-seam, one that has 39 of 72 strikeouts. His whiff rate on that pitch has gone up from 27.6% last year to 35% this season and Detroit is 27th when facing a fastball. There is simply nothing in the profile that suggests anything but a smash spot for Cole. 

Shane McClanahan 

I’m generally very hesitant to play a lefty pitcher against the White Sox lineup BUT Shane O’Mac is so good that he will be in some GPP lineups. I’m not stumping for him in cash games with Cole right there but McClanahan leads the league in K rate at 36.3% and he’s second in swinging-strike rate at 17%. On top of that, he leads the league in xFIP at .183 and the next closest player is Kevin Gausman at 2.46, so it’s a significant gap. Chicago is still top five in all of our offensive categories when they face a lefty, including OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wC+. Every pitch for him that isn’t the four-seam continues to dominate as well with wOBA’s under .170 for his curve/changeup mix, they both have a whiff rate of at least 35.9% and they have 52 strikeouts. His splits show no major cracks in the armor so I’m hoping he comes in a little less popular so we can take our shots in GPP. 

Corbin Burnes 

It’s not going to be very often that Burnes is third on the list (and he’s second for cash consideration ahead of McClanahan) and he got back in the saddle in the last start. He whiffed 11 Cardinals and generated a 0.43 FIP in that start. His cutter and curve make up about 75% of his arsenal and San Diego is 27th when facing the cutter and 24th when facing the curve. Burnes has 53 strikeouts with those two pitches and the curve has a 48% whiff rate and the splits are mostly even for Burnes. The left side has a 2.45 xFIP and 32.7% for the K rate while the righties are at 2.82 and 31.2%, respectively. Neither side has a wOBA over .236 and Burnes is a lights-out pick once again. We talked yesterday about how the Padres lineup has been a big disappointment this year and is in the bottom 10 of our offensive categories. I’m really going to be interested to see what the field does with the top of the salary grid tonight. 

Shane Bieber 

I’m the shakiest on Bieber but the Orioles’ offense can be had, although they are ranking better than you may think overall. They are 14th in wOBA, 12th in wRC+, 16th in OBP, 11th in ISO, and 12th in OPS so this isn’t exactly a pushover. However, outside of the Toronto start, he’s starting to find his footing more with at least 18 DK in the other four starts. I can hear it now that 18 Dk won’t cut it tonight and that’s 100% correct but he’s also scored 25 and 27 in the past two starts, albeit against Detroit. Perhaps my largest fear is he’s using the slider 40.5% of the time and has a 36.8% whiff rate with it but the O’s are fifth when facing sliders this year. We also need the lineup because against lefties, Bieber is excellent with a .236 wOBA, a 1.67 FIP, and a 2.87 xFIP with a 27.3% K rate. The metrics all plummet when facing righties for a 20.3% K rate and 4.04 FIP. I kind of have a feeling that he might be the cash play, but I tend to also believe that I’d be underweight in GPP settings. 

Honorable Mention 

Joe Musgrove has been excellent for the Padres so far this season but I’ll have a mental block with paying $500 more for him when Burnes is right there. Musgrove is sporting a 25.3% K rate, a 3.13 xFIP, and a 2.71 FIP in addition to the Brewers striking out at a top 10 rate when facing righty pitching. If you decided to go there, I can’t mount a strong argument but I will have other priorities tonight. 

Mid-Range 

Logan Gilbert 

Now we get into the range where I’m not exactly sure what DK was thinking, because there are at least two pitchers that are vastly mispriced here. Gilbert leads the charge and he’s coming off a 26.8 DK punt start, which earned him a salary decrease of $800. I’ve been a little hesitant with him when he was priced near $10,000 in part because the xFIP is 3.57 compared with a 2.29 ERA and the hard-hit rate is 36.1% but he also has a K rate of 25.4%. Texas is 11th in K rate this season when facing a righty and they are also no higher than 23rd in our offensive categories. This is a relatively soft matchup for Gilbert and my largest complaint with him is how little he throws his changeup. This pitch has a 33.3% whiff rate, a .064 wOBA, and has allowed just one single but he throws it just 8.7% of the time. That pitch is part of the reason he’s been lights out when facing lefties because out of the 84 changes he’s thrown, 82 have been against the left side. They only have a 2.04 FIP, a 34% K rate, and a .178 wOBA and Texas could throw out 5-6 lefties tonight. Please let that be the case!

Nathan Eovaldi 

Eovaldi has scored 60 points in his last two starts combined and he’s facing Oakland but for some reason, he’s only $8,000. I’d be pretty surprised if he’s not chalk today but the salary just doesn’t match what Eovaldi is capable of. His curve and splitter are a little under 40% of his arsenal and they both have a whiff rate of over 32% and they have combined for 35 strikeouts while the four-seam is at 18 strikeouts, although a .322 wOBA. Oakland has the seventh-highest K rate when facing a righty and they are 28th in ISO, 29th in wOBA, and 30th in wRC+. The xFIP against both sides is under 3.30 and he whiffs the left side at 30.2%. Aside from a horrific start against the Astros and a poor one against the White Sox, Eovaldi has been fairly reliable this season with just a 3.14 xFIP compared to his 3.77 ERA and he generates a ground ball 45.5% of the time. 

Punt Range 

Merrill Kelly 

I think we all knew that Kelly wasn’t going to score 25+ DK points very often this season but the salary has dropped too far because he’s had poor results lately. Two starts out of four coming against the Dodgers will tend to do that to any pitcher and now he has a nice, soft landing spot in facing Pittsburgh. Just don’t tell the Dodgers pitching staff that because they couldn’t figure it out but I digress. Kelly’s K rate is right about 20% and the xFIP’s are under 4.20 for either side of the plate, not to mention the HR/9 doesn’t climb over 0.81. In the last two weeks, Pittsburgh has been striking out 25.1% of the time when facing a righty and they are still just 21st in wOBA, wRC+, and OPS in that span. Kelly doesn’t throw a pitch more than his four-seam at 29.3% and his hard-hit rate is only 28.6%. For under $7,000, he’s worth using as an SP2 to fit an extra hitter or two into the lineup. 

Honorable Mention 

I’ll likely just stick with Kelly, but it is possible for me to look at Yusei Kikuchi as well. The Twins have been an average lineup when facing a lefty for the past month as opposed to top-five like their seasonal rankings would lead us to believe. Also, Kikuchi has just a 4.23 xFIP and a 24.4% K rate, so there is some potential here at such a cheap salary. I just want to see what the Minnesota lineup looks like before deciding. 

Stacks

Blue Jays

Yankees

Red Sox

Braves

Guardians

D-Backs (deep GPP)

Thank you for reading my MLB DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Pitching 6/3 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!