NFLPremium NFL DFS GPP: Stix Picks for Week 12 StixPicks 3 years ago written by StixPicks To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive.” NFL DFS GPP season is here and it’s time for us to get rolling again for Week 12. For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 12 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game bu... 3 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
NFL Stoweby’s Showdown 11.22 Chiefs at Raiders David Stowe 3 years ago written by David Stowe NFL DFS Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns:Stoweby’s Showdown for 11.22 Chiefs at Raiders is going to be a fun event this evening so let’s enjoy ourselves and treat it for what it is, a good game that we can take a few shots on. Don’t get tilted over these, they arte hard to win. DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.Let’s get to the game!Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.I’m putting this in every article until folks listen: Do not play Showdown if you’re still building bankroll or you’re tilting from a bad main slate! This is nothing more than a way to have a little fun during the game and it shouldn’t be counted on for anything more than that. They are incredibly difficult to win.Stoweby’s Showdown for 11.22 Chiefs at Raiders MVP candidates (1.5x points)Chalk: Patrick Mahomes $ 20,100Pivot: Derek Carr $14,700Contrarian #1: Tyreek Hill $16,500Contrarian #2: Travis Kelce $15,900Contrarian #3: Clyde Edwards-Helaire $12,300Vegas Total: 56 points Chiefs: -7.5I find it so strange that Vegas has so little faith in their home team. I know it is the Chiefs but they have outperformed expectations every step of the way and they have already shown that they have the ability to play up-tempo and they beat the Chiefs by 8 in KC earlier this year. I see this one being close for four quarters so for all of you playing props I’d recommend taking the Raiders +7.5 -116. It’s obvious that Patrick Mahomes is going to be the chalk even at $20,100 and I won’t argue if you go that route but there are two guys I really like. Derek Carr is $14,700 and went for 347 yards passing and 3 TD’s in there last meeting and I’ve been much more optimistic on the Raiders this year than most. Tyreek Hill became a much more intriguing option with news that Lamarcus Joyner on the Covid-19 list and unable to play leaving Amik Robinson in his stead. I know Joyner isn’t anything special but Robinson is a complete mess. no way he keeps up with his 4.45 40 time and overly aggressive nature at DB. The Cheetah is likely going to burn him any time the Raiders go man and even in the cover-2 man under concept Hill will burn these guys with crossing routes. My deep contrarian play is Clyde Edwars-Helaire. Now bear with me. Every year Andy Reid goes through these stints where he gets too cute with the play calling and he completely forgets that he has a running back. He will do it for three or four weeks and then get back to normal. I don’t know if he just uses the later half of the season to test things out to get ready for the playoffs, or if he just looses his mind every year for a while but it always happens. If you want to run a script that matches the Vegas line and bank on the Chiefs dominating an Edwards-Helaire captain play could potentially break the slate. I know I am leaving big play guys out but you know who they are if you want to use them. They’ll be listed as flex plays below but we could have gone 8 deep with captains today but these are just my favorites for various reasons.Stoweby’s Showdown for 11.22 Chiefs at Raiders: (All captains are viable flex’s)First thing that sticks out tonight is that I’m not going to recommend either defenses at flex outside of maybe a super contrarian game script if you are running 150 lineups. The Chiefs are the Chiefs and Derek Carr is great overall when it comes to limiting turnovers. Kickers are in play and if you want to bank on a shootout you’ll need big play options like Henry Ruggs and Demarcus Robinson in your lineup. Luckily the Chiefs are pretty condensed with their playmakers so I’ll likely not using anyone besides Harrison Butker or Demarcus Robinson as ancillary flex options.Raiders: Darren Waller, Josh Jacobs, Henry Ruggs, Nelson Algholor, Daniel Carlson, Hunter Renfrow, Bryan EdwardsChiefs: Demarcus Robinson, Mecole Hardman, Le’Veon Bell, Harrison ButkerThanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Stoweby’s Showdown for 11.22 Chiefs at Raiders . Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content! 3 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Daily Fantasy SportsNFL Week 10 NFL DFS Monday Night Showdown Preview: Vikings at Bears jason mezrahi 3 years ago written by jason mezrahi The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Monday night showdown, and we’re helping you win big money in the final Week 10 NFL DFS contests!Introduction to Single-Game ShowdownsDraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.Let’s get to the game!Week 10 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.Chalk: Dalvin Cook (DK $20,400, FD $17,500)Pivot: Kirk Cousins (DK $15,300, FD $14,500)Contrarian #1: Nick Foles (DK $14,700, FD $13,500)Contrarian #2: Adam Thielen (DK $15,000, FD $14,000)The easy choice for the captain chalk is Dalvin Cook, who’s season low is 17.1 DK points in Week 2 against Indy. This season he’s scored 21.8, 17.1, 29.9, 31.6, 19.9, BYE, INJ, 51.6 and 42.2 DK points – numbers bolstered by the fact that he’s scored at least one TD in every game he’s played this season (12 TDs in seven games). He seems matchup-proof at this point.We could pivot to Kirk Cousins if assume the Bears will stack the box against Cook, and while Cousins isn’t the most reliable real-world QB (or fantasy producer), he’s notched four weeks with at least 20 DK points and he has a bevy of offensive weapons at his disposal: Cook, veteran WR and PPR maven Adam Thielen, talented rookie wideout Justin Jefferson and stalwart TE Kyle Rudolph. The Vikings are without Irv Smith Jr. this week, which likely dings their red zone efficacy, but the gloriously man-bunned Tyler Conklin could soak up a few extra targets in his stead. Conklin played some in 2019 and has yet to be targeted this season, but he’s the only other active TE on the Vikings roster. He’s dirt cheap and probably not a guy I’d use in more than 1/10 GPPs.Additionally, it’s not outside the realm of possibility that capable RB Alexander Mattison sees a few additional carries this week, as Cook has logged 30 and 22 carries in his last two games. Outside of that lot and a smattering of the Vikings DST mixed into my builds, I don’t see too many other impact players for Minnesota.The Bears have a team total under 20 in this game, which is never a good sign for fantasy production. Nick Foles has his moments, so he’s the most obvious choice for a contrarian builds – which have merit based on both game script and the Vikings’ record against opposing QBs. I’d love to plug Foles and Allen Robinson into some lineups right away, but AR2 is questionable with a knee injury and we could see more targets heading the ay of both Anthony Miller and rookie Darnell Mooney. Mooney, even as the Bears deep threat, might even be the safer play of the two given Miller’s spotty performance this season – though Miller has a been a favorite feast-or-famine GPP play for me over the past couple of seasons since he seems to make some truly amazing catches when he’s on his game.Bears TE Jimmy Graham is another relatively safe fantasy option that maintains some upside, and the Vikings yield about a third more production to opposing TEs than the average NFL team. He’ll be a staple of my builds in all formats.The backfield is a mess, with the team promoting Lamar Miller from the practice squad to help Ryan Nall with RB duties. Miller hasn’t taken the field since 2018 because of an ACL injury and he was cut from the Patriots roster this summer. He could be a free space at just $200 on DK, but he’ll likely split work with Nall and Swiss army knife Cordarrelle Patterson in Week 10. This relatively ugly committee should still be led by Nall, with David Montgomery still in concussion protocol and ruled out for Week 10.Lastly, there’s no way we can omit the Bears DST – a strength of this team and a glaring GPP possibility when we’re honest about the fallibility of Cousins and the 3-5 Vikings in general. I’ll have shares of both them and K Cairo Santos in GPPs.Week 10 NFL DFS Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense togetherDON’T: Forget about the defenses – as both QBs have been known to look downright foolish on the football field.DO: Use Dalvin Cook somewhere in your lineup – unless you’re planning on him getting injured, which is both mean and dumb.DON’T: Be afraid to completely fade the Vikings passing game in your “Cook at CPT” builds.Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):Dalvin CookKirk CousinsAdam ThielenNick FolesAllen Robinson (if active)Justin JeffersonDarnell MooneyJimmy GrahamRyan NallKyle RudolphAnthony MillerLamar MillerVikings DSTDan BaileyCairo SantosBears DSTAlexander MattisonCordarrelle PattersonRiley RidleyOlabisi Johnson 3 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
NFL Stoweby’s Showdown for 11.15 Ravens at Patriots David Stowe 3 years ago written by David Stowe Week 10 NFL DFS Introduction to Single-Game ShowdownsDraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.Let’s get to the game!Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.I’m putting this in every article until folks listen: Do not play Showdown if you’re still building bankroll or you’re tilting from a bad main slate! This is nothing more than a way to have a little fun during the game and it shouldn’t be counted on for anything more than that. They are incredibly difficult to win.Week 8 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points) Stoweby’s Showdown for 11.15 Ravens at PatriotsChalk: Lamar Jackson $18,600Pivot: Cam Newton $16,200Contrarian #1: Jakobi Meyers $14,400Contrarian #2: Mark Andrews $11,400/ JK Dobbins $12,600 (If Ingram is out)Contrarian #3: Damien Harris $13,200/ Rex Burkhead $10,200 (If Harris is out or on “snap count”)Vegas: 44.5 Point total Ravens -6.5:Vegas is projecting this to be a low scoring tough slog and with rain and wind around 20 MPH at kickoff if you wanted to go with defenses and runners you can choose that as an alternate path than what I mention below. It’s 2020 and more often than not we see crazy things happen contrary to popular opinion every night.I am going to get this out there first. Living in North Carolina I’ve been forced to watch Cam Newton throw the ball since long before I ever wrote DFS articles. Once the health became I problem I knew the wheels would fall off. His throwing mechanics, accuracy, and tendency to get moody on the sidelines would eventually cause a good deal of problems. He has played one top ten defense all season and was benched after throwing three picks and ended the game with 2.82 points. But, with that being said I recognize my bias here and he makes a lot of sense as a contrarian captain play for much the same reason. I’m not the only person who feels this way and I think we’ll be surprised by just how low his ownership will be at captain. He also presents a clear path with Jakobi Meyers as his main weapon and it looks like Ravens DB Jimmy Smith won’t be playing tonight so Josh McDaniels will surely try to scheme Cam’s favorite guy open. We all know what Lamar Jackson brings to the table so no need to say much and if pairing him with a pass catcher you have two main options in Mark Andrews and Marquis Brown. Both of them have been largely absent this season but someone has to score and the added dynamic of Lamar running the ball may just cause Bill Belichick to make him win through the air so I think you have to pair him with one or the other at minimum. Finally, according to Ian Rappaport he expects Damien Harris to play and he seems to be their best back right now. But Ian Rappaport is one of the absolute worst NFL “insiders” in the business consistently giving you incorrect information causing you to make bad choices (he said CMC and Mike Davis were going to split carries last week….) so until I see official word I will plan on Rex Burkhead as a deep contrarian play as he has shown a high ability to play option football and I think we’re going to see a heavy dose of that tonight from both teams.Stoweby’s Showdown for 11.15 Ravens at Patriots Flex Plays: (All captains are viable flex’s)Both Defenses are in play tonight due to both QB’s struggling to throw the ball and the rain and wind. Kickers worry me for the same weather reasons but I’ll have them sprinkled in, mainly Justin Tucker. I personally love Isaiah Ford but he’s a smaller receiver who his better with timing throws that need an accurate QB throwing it. Cam is inaccurate and high on his throws so beyond a cheap punt play I don’t feel great there. Dez Bryant is still on the practice squad so the Dez truthers will have to wait at least another week.Patriots: Defense, James White, Damiere Byrd, Isaiah Ford, Ravens: Defense, Mark Ingram, JK Dobbins, Willie Snead, Justin Tucker Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Stoweby’s Showdown for 11.15 Ravens at Patriots . Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content! 3 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
NFL NFL DFS GPP: Stix Picks for Week 10 StixPicks 3 years ago written by StixPicks To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive.” NFL DFS GPP season is here and it’s time for us to get rolling again for Week 10. For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 10 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice.In addition, I would strongly advise reading my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason, before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.For those looking to get different and make a splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat. Let’s get into it.Please note, everyone on our cheatsheet and the Cash Game Checkdown are also in play for GPPs. This is more to uncover some players people are not talking about… and they should be.*Keep in mind, you DO NOT NEED to just build your GPP lineups around these players. Players from the Cash Game Checkdown are there because they have extremely high floors and high ceilings. They are key components you should probably build around no matter what type of contest you’re in*NEW: Adjusted Expected Team Totals Rankings for Week 10Arizona Cardinals (25.13)Los Angeles Rams (24.36)Green Bay Packers (24.15)Buffalo Bills (22.33)Pittsburgh Steelers (21.98)Seattle Seahawks (21.77)NFL DFS GPP QuarterbacksRussell Wilson – With an ownership projection around 5-7%, I’m all aboard the Wilson train. Despite a very tough matchup against the Rams and their 9th ranked defense (in terms of pass DVOA), I don’t think there’s going to be much in the way to slow down Russ. This is one of the lowest weeks of combined ownership for Wilson/Lockett/Metcalf and I’ll be sure to have multiple combinations of the three and run it back with a Rams’ player or two. Quite frankly, I am really only interested in getting my stack exposure to this game and with Kyler Murray/Josh Allen in that 56 point total in Arizona.Jared Goff – On the other side of Wilson, it’s wheels up for Jared Goff and this Rams’ passing attack. We pick on Seattle’s pass defense (ranked 29th in DVOA) every single week and there’s no reason to shy away now. The AETY Model has Jared Goff projected for 306 passing yards which is by far the highest on this slate. Great salary relief as well for your NFL DFS GPP lineups.Honorable Mention: Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Kyler Murray, Josh AllenRunning Backs*Obviously, Aaron Jones and Alvin Kamara make a ton of sense to roster. With the weather and the savings, I prefer Aaron Jones, but we will see a bit of Jamaal Williams this week. I do not think either of these guys are “must-plays” in GPPs, but you definitely want to give them a lot of consideration in your NFL DFS GPP lineups*Chase Edmonds – If Kenyan Drake is out, Chase Edmonds becomes a very nice value play in the highest totaled game on the slate. Buffalo’s defense has really struggled against the run and despite a weak showing in Week 9, Edmonds hardly left the field… 96% snap share!Buffalo ranks 22nd in run defense DVOA and Arizona should have their way with the Bills on the ground as they are the 4th most efficient rushing offense in the NFL. Kyler Murray’s ownership is going to be through the roof (and rightfully so), why not pivot to Chase Edmonds at ~10% ownership?Moving to James Conner now that Kenyan Drake is going to suit up.Antonio Gibson – I simply love this dude’s game. I know we’ve seen a ton of JD McKissic lately (even running routes out of the slot), but I project this game to be much slower paced and offer Gibson a gamescript where he can thrive. Detroit’s run defense is allowing ~5 yards per carry to opposing running backs and rank 25th in run defense DVOA. At Gibson’s price, I think this is an excellent spot for him to hit 4x value at 5% ownership.Ronald Jones / Leonard Fournette – Carolina’s run defense has significantly improved over the year but they’re still bleeding yards to opposing running backs. This is going to be an absolute statement game from Tom Brady and the Bucs’ offense. I hate the timeshare, but this should be a gamescript that sets up nicely for two or three rushing touchdowns.I personally am leaning RoJo, but I will have a feel lineups with Fournette as well. Fournette has been taking away snaps from Jones over the past few weeks, but the Bucs seem plenty confident in riding Jones a bit more when the game is close or in their favor. That should be his role to run with in Week 10.Nick Chubb – Guess who’s back? Mr. Nick Chubb in a cakewalk matchup (with weather concerns that will make passing the ball extremely difficult) against Houston’s pathetic run defense. We’re likely going to see 40+ rush attempts from this Cleveland outside-zone run scheme and that will pay dividends to both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt.Honorable Mention: James Conner, James Robinson, D’Andre Swift, Phil LindsayWide ReceiversKeenan Allen – Every single week we pick on Miami slot-corner, Nik Needham. Lock in Keenan and enjoy the show.Michael Thomas – He’s simply too cheap for Michael Thomas and a nice pivot away from 25% owned Alvin Kamara chalk. I like them both, but I’m leaning Michael Thomas here in GPP lineups. Hell, make a stack with Brees/Thomas/Kamara, they’re going to put up points.Cooper Kupp / Robert Woods – With how much I love Jared Goff and the Rams’ passing attack, I obviously love Kupp and Woods this week. If I had to make a choice, I think Woods has the higher output against a Seattle secondary who will be without Shaq Griffin and Quinton Dunbar. See below for another Rams’ option.John Brown – Most of my builds cannot afford Stefon Diggs and I don’t really mind that at all. Diggs is going to be 30% owned in this shootout with Arizona. I’ll pivot down to John Brown for my Buffalo exposure in a matchup against Johnathan Joseph. Brown is going to produce big numbers as long as this game stays up-pace.Jerry Jeudy – This kid is special. We take advantage of this Raiders’ secondary on a weekly basis and won’t stop now. Jeudy should have a field day against arguably the worst trio of cornerbacks in the AFC.DK Metcalf – If everyone is afraid of shadow treatment by Jalen Ramsey, I’m going to be heavily invested in DK Metcalf. I don’t care who you are, you cannot cover DK Metcalf for 60 minutes of football. Current ownership projections show the highest ceiling wide receiver in the game under 10%… Let’s roll.Josh Reynolds / Larry Fitzgerald – If you need salary relief or an educated punt-play, Josh Reynolds and Larry Fitzgerald will be my guys. I’ll likely never have both of them in the same lineup, but this is the cheapest, viable pieces of the #1 and #2 offenses on the Adjusted Expected Team Totals model.Honorable Mention: DeAndre Hopkins, Jarvis Landry, Brandon Aiyuk, Curtis Samuel, Tyler LockettNFL DFS GPP Tight EndsTJ Hockenson – No idea how this dude isn’t projected for 15% ownership. Washington is terrible at covering the tight end and outside of COVID-19 and Travis Kelce, there really hasn’t been anything else as consistent as TJ Hockenson in 2020. Greg Olsen – Disgusting, I know. But hear me out. The Rams cannot cover tight ends, I don’t care what the numbers say. If Ramsey and the Rams’ defense can slow down Metcalf/Lockett just a bit, Greg Olsen is going to run 20+ routes in this game. Assuming that happens, Olsen is easily going to go for 4x value for your NFL DFS GPP lineup.He’s not going to go nuts, but at his price, he allows you to get very creative with your roster builds.Honorable Mention: All of the chalky tight ends (Goedert, Waller, Fant)Good luck to all this week in your NFL DFS GPP lineups!Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return. 3 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
NFL Win Daily NFL Contest Selection Week 10 Uriah Wesson 3 years ago written by Uriah Wesson Introduction into NFL DFS contest selection:As a newer DFS player most of us started off the same way. We were either watching television or listening on SiriusXM and we heard a commercial that went along the lines of “Do you think you know NFL? Do you play seasonal fantasy sports? Do you want to win money instantly? Have a chance to be like (insert name here), he/she won a million dollars playing daily fantasy sports on (insert website). Well sign up today and start winning”. In 2013 that was me, the site was Fanduel, and the player was Chris Prince. I proceeded to enter my money, and I was immediately hooked. Unfortunately, I also was not aware of sites like Win Daily Sports for a couple of years and I was doing like most new players and did nothing but chase the bright shiny Millionaire Maker contests. It took me a long time to realize what full time players already understood, the Milli Maker contests are a waste of money for the average player and that I needed to focus on single entry tournaments and 50/50’s. Not just that when you dig into it because not all single entry contests are created equal. With Win Daily Sports NFL Contest Selection week 10 we will tackle individual contests selection and why It is important. Subscriber Questions: I will try to address any questions from our Win Daily Sports family that you may have that I haven’t already covered below.What is the Difference in build structure between Cash and GPP contests? Your build structure will be vastly different between these types of contests. When building cash lineups the two biggest differences are that first, you don’t fade the highest ownership players like you would consider doing in GPP’s. High ownership is irrelevant because you aren’t worried about finding sneaky low owned players to separate yourself from the rest of the field to get to the top of the leaderboard, you just need to get above the cash line. You don’t get style points for finishing first. Second, you do not want to stack games like you would in GPP’s i.e. Playing a QB and 1-2 pass catchers from one team and running it back with a player from the opposing team. The reason for that is your goal is to minimize your risk and consistently score enough points to simply beat half of the field. If you have your players spread across multiple games and one guy gets hurt or has a bad game it won’t hurt any corresponding players on your team and you can still cash, whereas if your QB has a bad game and you stacked two of his receivers with him you’re now down 3 players and likely dead in the water. At most in cash games I may pair a QB with ONE receiver on RARE occasions and I will use a running back paired with a defense if the matchup is extremely good. One other key difference between the two is that you should largely avoid things like bad matchups in cash (such as a good running back in a bad matchup or a QB in a game with windy conditions), but you will take risks on those plays in GPP’s in an attempt to get a huge performance at low ownership. I hope all of that makes sense to everyone.I’m going to just put this in here because no matter how many ways I say it people seem to not hear me. If you are playing with a limited bankroll as a new player or simply want the easiest path to make steady winnings DO NOT PLAY SHOWDOWNS. Your chances to win a showdown slate is worse than any other type of contest and if you are relying on it to make up for a bad main slate or think you can predict it accurately enough to be profitable over the long term you are doing it wrong. You’ll be broke and out of the DFS community before we ever get a chance to help you. Ok you’ve been warned. It’s just for fun and maybe you’ll get lucky, that’s it.Win Daily NFL Contest Selection Week 10: Daily Fantasy Jargon and Definitions: One thing that I feel is tremendously important is understanding the vocabulary within DFS. New players can sometimes be overwhelmed and a little embarrassed to ask what in the world we are talking about in our articles and in discord. First thing, don’t be. There is not a single content creator that will give you a hard time for not knowing what something means. We have a lingo all our own and it can take a little time to get up to speed and experienced players can sometimes get into the weeds when having nuanced conversations and inadvertently leave newer players not having any idea what we are saying.GPP or Guaranteed Prize Pool/Tournament:These are tournaments where the pay structure is pre-defined prior to the start of the contest and the pay structure increases the higher you finish in the final standings. They can either be single entry or multi entry. The Millionaire Maker is the most notable example.Cash Contests/Double-Ups/50-50’s:These are contests where if you finish above a certain point in the field you are payed a pre-determined amount that does not change based on final standings. Finishing in the top 50 percent (50-50’s) on FanDuel or roughly top 40 percent (double ups) on DraftKings will result in a positive outcome. These are the easiest contests to cash and the best place for new players to focus on while building bankroll.MME/Multi Entry/Mega Multi Entry:Contests where you are allowed to enter more than lineup in a given contest. These contests can range from 3-entries up to 150 entries per contest. These are the most difficult kinds of contests for people to win and with the exception of the 3 entry max should be avoided by most players who do not have an already established bankroll.Single Entry Contests:Contests that only allow you to enter a single lineup in a given contest. All new players and even established players should focus the majority of their bankroll on this style of contest. The potential winnings are not nearly as attractive to new players as the giant MME contests but they are by far the best choice for sustained growth. There are both GPP and Cash versions of single entry contests.Rake:Rake is the percentage of the overall prize pool that a given site will remove as profit from what is payed out in the player prize pool. Typically, MME GPP’s and smaller entry fee contests have the highest rake sometimes reaching 16% of entry fees removed while higher entry fee contests can see as low as 8% rake. That 8% will directly affect where the pay line sits as well as payout structure i.e. Top 24% of players will cash as opposed to top 18% or top 5 players winning $10K, $8K, $6K, $4K, $3K as opposed to top 5 players winning $10K, $5K, $2K, $1K, $750. These percentages change every given week and will give us the basis for many of our plays on a given week.Overlay:You don’t see this one all that often in NFL contests but overlay does still happen. Overlay happens when GPP’s do not fill up and it provides an additional advantage in your overall chances to win. As an example if a contest that has 10,000 maximum entries and only pays the top 2,000 players that means 20% percent of people will win. If only 8,000 people enter that contest they will still pay the top 2,000 people and you now have a 25% chance to win. That 5% improvement in your odds is huge over the long term for your success. It’s harder to predict but if you have a lineup that you feel very confident in and you watch the contest lobby you can give yourself an edge that not everyone will be looking for. Win Daily NFL Contest Selection Week 10: Cash ContestsIt’s less about rake or percentages here so this will be the same every week. When it comes to cash contests stick to single only and play in events with between 100-1000 total entries. This range eliminates the random variance that comes with smaller contests and the slightly higher scores that inevitably come from contests with the multi-thousands of entries of games. We’ll get more into that in the coming weeks as we gather data. If you are just starting out a minimum of 70% of your weekly bankroll needs to go towards these types of contests. Win Daily NFL Contest Selection Week 10 DraftKings:Win Daily NFL Contest Selection Week 10: $1-$25 Range Both the single entry and 3 entry max $1 dollar contests are identical so if you want to throw a buck at them have fun. Only 1.5x min cash but it’s $1,000 to first in both. The larger $12 Fair catch is marginally better. A .02% increase in rake but a .19% increase to pay line and a marginally flatter structure near the top edges this one out of its 50k counterpart. $25,000 to First.Win Daily NFL Contest Selection Week 10: $25-$100 Range In a strange twist this week DraftKings did a better job flattening the top of the larger contests at the sub $100 range. That’s fine with me, we get to take a swing at the larger top prize with marginally better odds. $10,000 to First. I nice big $7,500 top prize contest with 600 entries and a “decent” Top Ten payout under 35% puts the 3 entry max Goal Line on my list. Rake is about 1.5% too high in my opinion and I’d rather have 2x min cash but it better than most and it’s not crazy for someone who has a bit of a bankroll to max out if they really wanted to. DK loaded us up with contests with min cash of only 1.5x in the $50-$100 range. This smaller Hot Route contest though is really nice. Under 400 entries, 2.0x min cash, sub 10% rake and a $5,000 top prize. If you’re new to the higher dollar contests and want to dip a tow in I love the idea of taking a swing here. A takedown is a reasonable goal with this one.Win Daily NFL Contest Selection Week 10: $100-$500 Range Do you want to take a step up an go after a 5 figure top prize and actually have decent odds? Here is you game. With only 416 entries, a rake under 10%, and a min cash of 2x this is a fun one. This one is top heavy but when the GPP’s get this small in terms of entries top loaded is what you want. You have a very real chance at finishing at the top with a strong lineup. Still have a little left over from your stimulus check and missed out on the new Xbox release? Why not drop $300 in this Single Entry Spin Move contest and take a swing at a $20,000 top price. Top heavy as all get out but like I already said, when your entering these higher dollar contests with sub-600 entries you want to have as much up top as possible. In the event that you just barley cash though the 2x return still gives you an extra chunk of change so you can afford to pay scalper prices on that Xbox you missed out on.Win Daily NFL Contest Selection Week 10 FanDuel:I will say that while the sponsored single entry contests all seem to do a pretty decent job with a flatter pay structure FanDuel makes sure to always increase the rake on them and reduce the min cash to 2x or below (1.83x min cash on the $33) on all three contests so unless you are just dead set on it I would avoid for better options. Unlike DraftKings you can usually find GPP’s with at least 2x min cash but they are by no means perfect as you will see below.Win Daily NFL Contest Selection Week 10: $1-$25 RangeFanDuel unfortunately is really limited on “good” contests in the less expensive single entry contests. I’ve asked them to fix it, they never will. The smaller contests i.e. Small Sweep ($25), Small Scramble ($10), Small Spike ($5), and Small Squib ($1) are better with rake, payout structure, cash line, and min cash. So instead of writing them all up I’ll just say fade the bigger contests and go for the smaller ones to build bankroll. It will pay off in the long run, I promise.Win Daily NFL Contest Selection Week 10: $25-$100 Range $50 Single Entry NFL Hot Route: Nice Flat payout structure with 2x min cash, $10,000 to first. $50 Single Entry Small Hot Route: As with the smaller buy in contests I like the way they have the 100-120 entry single entry contests structured. 2.5x Min cash while staying above the 20% cash line is nice. $1,000 to first. $75 Single Entry NFL Stiff Arm: I’m not a huge fan of the top ten taking 40% of the of the winnings but it’s great elsewhere with almost 25% cashing and under 12 percent on the rake.Win Daily NFL Contest Selection Week 10: $100-$500 RangeFanDuel if you are reading this (which I highly doubt) you need to do better, your higher dollar single entry contests are embarrasing in terms of rake, payout structrure, cash line, and min cash. I couldn’t recommend a single one. DraftKings beats you in every way. The only reason I could even put anything in here is because of a 2 max and 3 max entry contest. $100 Two Entry Small Blitz: The only decent $100 contest on FanDuel. 68 entries, $1,500 to first. $150 Three Entry NFL End Zone. Hate the 50% going to the top ten and almost 12% rake but the rest is good. $10,000 to firstThanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Sports NFL Contest Selection Week 10 . Looking forward to seeing some green screens this week. If you have any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content! 3 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
NFL Stoweby’s Showdown For 11.8 Saints at Buccaneers David Stowe 3 years ago written by David Stowe Week 9 NFL DFS Introduction to Single-Game ShowdownsDraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.Let’s get to the game!Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.Week 8 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points) Stoweby’s Showdown For 11.8 Saints at BuccaneersChalk: Alvin Kamara $16,800Pivot: Tom Brady $15,900Contrarian #1: Drew Brees $15,000Contrarian #2: Mike Evans $12,600Contrarian #3: Michael Thomas $14,700This one is incredibly interesting in terms of Showdown contests go with a number of narratives. Tom Brady and Drew Brees are going back and forth for the NFL’s touchdown record. Antonio Brown returns to action after a lengthy absence as does Michael Thomas. A little less talked about narrative is that Brees has been dealing with a right shoulder issue and I’m not sure of the severity, how long he’s dealt with it, or how it will affect him if at all. Vegas thinks that this will be a close shootout with a total of 50.5 and Tampa being 3.5 point favorites at home so they are thinking pickum. Alvin Kamara will always be chalk when he is in a showdown lineup and for good reason but I think if you were ever to go somewhere else at captain this is the week facing the best run defense in the NFL and arguably the best overall defense and with Michael Thomas looking to return to action potentially changing his target share just a bit through the air. I think the safest pivot will be Tom Brady with a full allotment of weapons, in primetime, after a rough outing against the Giants. The Saints secondary is nothing to be scared of and he will have what is arguably now the best WR core with Antonio Brown, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Scotty Miller, and Tyler Johnson. Rob Gronkowski and Cameron Brate at tight end, and two backs in Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette who can run inside and catch the ball out of the backfield. I really don’t think the Saints have a chance to stop them, our problem is picking the spots where the points will come from. From the Saints offense we only have 3 primary options tonight in Kamara, Thomas, and Brees so I’m really not going to spend much time there. Overall I count 10 different players on DraftKings the we could consider in your captain spot so my list is not comprehensive by any means tonight, the five up top are just the safest options in my opinion. I think for high upside low owned options Chris Godwin will be extremely low owned given his finger injury and I think everyone is gonna wait a week before running AB out there.Stoweby’s Showdown For 11.8 Saints at Buccaneers Flex Plays: (All captains are viable flex’s)There are just a plethora of Bucs that are worth considering tonight so I will list my flex plays in order of most to least favorite today. If you run a script where the game will be close like Vegas predicts load on on Bucs pass catchers and if you are running a couple of scrips where the Bucs roll over the Saints like I am it would be good idea to run a pass catcher or two with either Fournette or Jones in a 4-2 split with either Kamara or Thomas and whoever you can fit in as your second Saints player.Buccaneers: Rob Gronkowski, Chris Godwin, Ronald Jones, Leonard Fournette, Antonio Brown, Ryan Succop, Bucs Defense, Scotty Miller, Tyler Johnson, Cameron BrateSaints: Emmanuel Sanders, Will Lutz, Jared Cook, Latavius MurrayThanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Stoweby’s Showdown For 11.8 Saints at Buccaneers . Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content! 3 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
NFL Win Daily NFL Contest Selection Week 9 Uriah Wesson 3 years ago written by Uriah Wesson Introduction into contest NFL DFS contest selection:As a newer DFS player most of us started off the same way. We were either watching television or listening on SiriusXM and we heard a commercial that went along the lines of “Do you think you know NFL? Do you play seasonal fantasy sports? Do you want to win money instantly? Have a chance to be like (insert name here), he/she won a million dollars playing daily fantasy sports on (insert website). Well sign up today and start winning”. In 2013 that was me, the site was Fanduel, and the player was Chris Prince. I proceeded to enter my money, and I was immediately hooked. Unfortunately, I also was not aware of sites like Win Daily Sports for a couple of years and I was doing like most new players and did nothing but chase the bright shiny Millionaire Maker contests. It took me a long time to realize what full time players already understood, the Milli Maker contests are a waste of money for the average player and that I needed to focus on single entry tournaments and 50/50’s. Not just that when you dig into it because not all single entry contests are created equal. With Win Daily Sports NFL Contest Selection Week 9 and going forward we will tackle individual contests selection and why It is important. It took some time for me to get this formatted and written for future articles so this week will be DraftKings only. Week 10 I will have both DraftKings and FanDuel so stay tuned.Win Daily NFL Contest Selection Week 9: Daily Fantasy Jargon and Definitions One thing that I feel is tremendously important is understanding the vocabulary within DFS. New players can sometimes be overwhelmed and a little embarrassed to ask what in the world we are talking about in our articles and in discord. First thing, don’t be. There is not a single content creator that will give you a hard time for not knowing what something means. We have a lingo all our own and it can take a little time to get up to speed and experienced players can sometimes get into the weeds when having nuanced conversations and inadvertently leave newer players not having any idea what we are saying.GPP or Guaranteed Prize Pool/Tournament:These are tournaments where the pay structure is pre-defined prior to the start of the contest and the pay structure increases the higher you finish in the final standings. They can either be single entry or multi entry. The Millionaire Maker is the most notable example.Cash Contests/Double-Ups/50-50’s:These are contests where if you finish above a certain point in the field you are payed a pre-determined amount that does not change based on final standings. Finishing in the top 50 percent (50-50’s) on FanDuel or roughly top 40 percent (double ups) on DraftKings will result in a positive outcome. These are the easiest contests to cash and the best place for new players to focus on while building bankroll.MME/Multi Entry/Mega Multi Entry:Contests where you are allowed to enter more than lineup in a given contest. These contests can range from 3-entries up to 150 entries per contest. These are the most difficult kinds of contests for people to win and with the exception of the 3 entry max should be avoided by most players who do not have an already established bankroll.Single Entry Contests:Contests that only allow you to enter a single lineup in a given contest. All new players and even established players should focus the majority of their bankroll on this style of contest. The potential winnings are not nearly as attractive to new players as the giant MME contests but they are by far the best choice for sustained growth. There are both GPP and Cash versions of single entry contests.Rake:Rake is the percentage of the overall prize pool that a given site will remove as profit from what is payed out in the player prize pool. Typically, MME GPP’s and smaller entry fee contests have the highest rake sometimes reaching 16% of entry fees removed while higher entry fee contests can see as low as 8% rake. That 8% will directly affect where the pay line sits as well as payout structure i.e. Top 24% of players will cash as opposed to top 18% or top 5 players winning $10K, $8K, $6K, $4K, $3K as opposed to top 5 players winning $10K, $5K, $2K, $1K, $750. These percentages change every given week and will give us the basis for many of our plays on a given week.Overlay:You don’t see this one all that often in NFL contests but overlay does still happen. Overlay happens when GPP’s do not fill up and it provides an additional advantage in your overall chances to win. As an example if a contest that has 10,000 maximum entries and only pays the top 2,000 players that means 20% percent of people will win. If only 8,000 people enter that contest they will still pay the top 2,000 people and you now have a 25% chance to win. That 5% improvement in your odds is huge over the long term for your success. It’s harder to predict but if you have a lineup that you feel very confident in and you watch the contest lobby you can give yourself an edge that not everyone will be looking for. Win Daily NFL Contest Selection Week 9: Cash ContestsIt’s less about rake or percentages here so this will be the same every week. When it comes to cash contests stick to single only and play in events with between 100-1000 total entries. This range eliminates the random variance that comes with smaller contests and the slightly higher scores that inevitably come from contests with the multi-thousands of entries of games. We’ll get more into that in the coming weeks as we gather data. If you are just starting out a minimum of 70% of your weekly bankroll needs to go towards these types of contests. Win Daily NFL Contest Selection Week 9: $1-$25 Range$1 Daily Dollar (Single Entry): $20,000 Total Prize Pool, 27% cash (1.5x Min Cash), 1st place 5% Prize Pool , Top 10% 16.25% Prize Pool, 15.9% Rake. Both $1 contests pay the same, flat pay structure. $1,000 to first$1 Singleback (Three Entry Max): $20,000 Total Prize Pool, 27% cash (1.5x Min Cash), 1st place 5% Prize Pool, Top 10% Payout 16.25% Prize Pool, 15.9% Rake. Both $1 contests pay the same, flat pay structure. $1,000 to first$12 Fair Catch $250K (Single Entry): $250,000 Total Prize Pool. 21.53% Cash (2.08x Min Cash), 1st place 10% Prize Pool ($25,000), Top 10% Payout 24.60% Prize Pool, 14.99% Rake. The largest of the two $12 contests gets the nod this week with a slightly better Min cash line and flatter pay structure up top. $25,000 to first.Win Daily NFL Contest Selection Week 9: $25-$100 Range$27 Blind Side $50K (Single Entry): $50,000 Total Prize Pool, 22.88% Cash (2x Min Cash), 1st Place 10% Prize Pool, Top 10% Payout 30.90% Prize Pool, 14.23% Rake. You can see here the top heavy approach becomes apparent with top 10% taking 31% of the winnings but the 2x min cash with payout just shy of 23% is pretty good on the smaller of the two Blind Sides. $5,000 to first.$50 Red Zone $100K (Single Entry): $100,000 Total Prize Pool, 22.62% Cash (2x Min Cash), 1st Place 10% Prize Pool, Top 10% Payout 27% Prize Pool 11.97% Rake. Here we see a big drop of more than 2% in rake and the pay structure is way better in all aspects compared to the larger Red Zone contest. Go here for your $50 entry. $10,000 to first.$100 Spy $500K (Single Entry): $500,000 Total Prize Pool, 20.88% Cash (1.5x Min Cash), 1st Place 20% Prize Pool, Top 10% Payout 41.20% Prize Pool 9.99% Rake. We finally get under sub 10% in rake but the min cash drops way down to 1.5x and the top 10% payout balloons to over 40%. Honestly I think I’m avoiding both $100 Spy contests but the smaller one is even worse with the top 10% accounting for over half of the total prize pool. They need to fix this one honestly. 100K to first.Win Daily NFL Contest Selection Week 9: $100-$500 Range$150 Power Sweep $555K (3 entry max): $555,000 Total Prize Pool, 23.72% Cash (1.5x Min Cash), 1st Place 18.02% Prize Pool, Top 10 Payout 39.01% Prize Pool 10% Rake. Back to our 3-entry max contests this one is pretty good all the way around. 10% rake, sub 40% flattened pay structure (not perfect but manageable) which at this point that’s what you’re going to see, and you are still over 23% for the cash line. 100K to first$300 Spin Move $125K: $125,000 Total Prize Pool, 20.35% Cash (2x Min Cash), 1st Place 16% Prize Pool, Top 10 Payout 51.20% Prize Pool 9.81% Rake. Extremely top heavy at over 51% going to the top 10 and only a hair over 20% cash but it checks off every other thing we want. Sub 10% rake, under 500 entries, 2x min cash, and single entry. I’m probably firing this one up this week.Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Sports NFL Contest Selection Week 9 . Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. If you have any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content! 3 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
NFL Stoweby’s Showdown For 11.1 Cowboys at Eagles Richard Masana 3 years ago written by Richard Masana Week 8 NFL DFS Introduction to Single-Game ShowdownsDraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.Let’s get to the game!Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.Week 8 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points) Stoweby’s Showdown For 11.1 Cowboys at EaglesChalk: Boston Scott $13,200Pivot: Carson Wentz $17,700Contrarian #1: Dallas Goedert $11,700Contrarian #2: Ezekiel Elliott $16,200Contrarian #3: Ben DiNucci $12,900/Eagles Defense $9,300 *****High Risk*****The theme of the day for the majority of our games this weekend is weather and this Cowboys/Eagles contests is no different. With sustained winds over 15 MPH and gusts into the mid/upper 20’s we’re need to temper our expectations for offensive production. It’s not really like we were expecting much from Dallas and the Eagles offensive weapons have largely been limited all season so the 42.5 point total feels like a decent number albeit I’m in the mood for unders today and to this point I’m being rewarded for it. Chalk tonight is far and away Boston Scott tipping our projections at 30% in the captain spot and for good reason. Dallas can’t stop anything, he’s cheap, and the weather favors the running game as I already mentioned. If you want to pivot and you feel that the weather will not inhibit the pass and somehow Dallas can stay close (I doubt it), a pivot to Carson Wentz and pairing him with Travis Fulgham or Dallas Goedert will be a fine contrarian option. There is one other EXTREMELY contrarian path and it ties into the Eagles passing narrative, you pair Ben DiNucci with someone like Amari Cooper and pray the lack of film on him allows a few big plays in the first half before the Eagles make an adjustment. I really can’t stress this enough, this last option is high risk but it leverages heavily against the game script that 99 percent of people will be on tonight. If you use this one don’t @ me in discord to tell me it was a bad play. It’s showdown. If you aren’t playing all or nothing you shouldn’t be playing. Ezekiel Elliott is in my captains list for the obvious reason that he is their only real chance to win tonight. He needs 30+ touches at minimum to have a shot but to be honest I don’t trust Mike McCarthy’s ability to do anything correctly so play any Dallas players at your own peril.Stoweby’s Showdown For 11.1 Cowboys at Eagles Flex Plays: (All captains are viable flex’s)You probably hate me right now if you’re a Cowboys fan but I’m gonna keep this fles section pretty straight forward. If you are expecting this game to be as bad as I am for Dallas tonight I would really only consider playing one Cowboy and only in a flex postion. My favorite two guys for that are Zeke or kicker Greg Zuerlein. Sorry Dallas.Cowboys: (Do I have to?), Amari Cooper, Dalton Shultz, CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup, Tony Pollard, Greg ZuerleinEagles: Travis Fulgham, Greg Ward, Richard Rodgers, Corey Clement, Jason Huntley, Jake ElliottThanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Stoweby’s Showdown For 11.1 Cowboys at Eagles . Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content! 3 years ago 0 comment 0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
NFL NFL DFS GPP: Stix Picks for Week 8 StixPicks 3 years ago written by StixPicks To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive.” NFL DFS GPP season is here and it’s time for us to stay hot. It was a strange week of scoring in Week 7 for NFL DFS GPP lineups but we can right the ship this Sunday. For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 8 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice.In addition, I would strongly advise reading my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason, before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.For those looking to get different and make a splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat. Let’s get into it.Please note, everyone on our cheatsheet and the Cash Game Checkdown are also in play for GPPs. This is more to uncover some players people are not talking about… and they should be.*Keep in mind, for the stack options, you obviously do not need to use everyone listed. You can always just use one or two of those players if that fits your build more appropriately*NEW: Adjusted Expected Team Totals Rankings for Week 81. Kansas City Chiefs – 25.672. Green Bay Packers – 23.603. Seattle Seahawks – 23.454. San Francisco 49ers – 23.335. Los Angeles Rams – 22.28*Great tool for evaluating DFS stacks and what offenses are likely to score the most via touchdowns (no special teams included)*NFL DFS GPP QuarterbacksRussell Wilson – There are a ton of weather concerns this week, so I’ll likely be avoiding most of those games as a whole. I’m going to be heavily invested in this afternoon hammer when the 49ers go into Seattle to face Wilson and the boys. This game has the highest total on the board (by far) and zero weather concerns at the moment. Wilson is the #1 quarterback in the AETY Model as well. There are so many ways to stack this game up and you know where all of the production is going.On the other side, Jimmy Garoppolo is also a great play (and likely to be the chalkiest QB on the slate). I don’t care what ownership is for this game, I’ll be overweight in every possible way. Play Wilson naked, play him with Metcalf, play him with Lockett, or play him with both.Potential Stack(s):Metcalf/LockettMetcalf/Lockett/AiyukMetcalf/Lockett/Kittle/AiyukMetcalf/Lockett/Aiyuk/BourneMetcalf/Lockett/Kittle/Bourne*Don’t forget, Tevin Coleman is active. Feel free to toss him into your west coast game stacks as well if you need the savings.Patrick Mahomes – The best quarterback in the NFL against the worst defense in the NFL. Yes, the spread in this game is out of control and likely leads to a Kansas City blowout, but I trust Mahomes and this offense so much that I’m fine with stacking them (if we only get to see them for three quarters) before the second string comes in.There are plenty of cheap options on the other side to run it back with, but I’m not sure you want to have a lot of KC/NYJ game stacks out there. A sub-10% owned Mahomes on a weird slate is something that just seems right.Like Russ, you can play Mahomes naked, single stacked, double stacked, and game stacked. Kelce is probably my favorite pairing with Mahomes as these Jets’ linebackers and safeties give generous cushions in coverage on a weekly basis.Potential Stack(s):Hill/KelceKelce/HardmanKelce/Hill/MimsKelce/Hill/Mims/PerineEtc. etc. etc… you know what to doJared Goff – It wouldn’t be a NFL DFS GPP article without mentioning a player that is going to be 0% owned. Jared Goff is that guy for me this week. On paper, the Miami defense looks strong, but they’ve played nobody. In the two games they faced a top-10 offense in passing efficiency, they have given up an average of 387.5 passing yards (Seattle and Buffalo… both games in Miami).The Rams come into this matchup ranked 9th in offensive pass efficiency… this is a low-key recipe for a blow-up game as the Rams really need a victory with a guaranteed loss coming for either Seattle or San Francisco, and Arizona on a bye.I love what I’ve been seeing out of McVay and the rest of this Rams offense and I truly believe they’ll have no issues scoring 35+ points in this matchup.Potential Stack(s):Kupp/WoodsKupp/ReynoldsKupp/EverettKupp/HendersonKupp/Henderson/GesickiHonorable Mention: Aaron Rodgers, Joe Burrow, Ryan Tannehill, Jimmy GaroppoloRunning BacksDerrick Henry – He’s #1 on the AETY Model in terms of total rushing yards by a WIDE margin. Last time that happened, it was Week 6… which was the best DFS weekend of my life and likely Win Daily’s (screenshots galore). Henry is easily the top dog running back on this slate with a rushing projection over 110 yards and Vegas odds of (-250) to score. That all checks out as the Bengals’ rush defense is non-existent.The issue with Henry is that it’s hard as hell to fit him in if you’re heavily invested in that afternoon game. There’s a lot of condensed value on this slate and likely everyone in the field that uses Henry is going to use the same players for salary relief (Mims or Bourne). When playing Henry, find a way to get different this week.Kareem Hunt – I was all in last week and was disappointed a bit but I’ll go right back to the well this week against the Raiders’ 29th ranked defense, in terms of DVOA. The weather will be a mess in Cleveland and the tight spread leads me to believe Hunt will be heavily utilized all game long. Jonathan Taylor – Rookie running backs after the bye week… I still don’t trust Frank Reich to fully unleash Jonathan Taylor, but if there was ever a matchup to free Jon Taylor, it’s this week against Detroit’s run defense. Outside of the timeshare, the only other downside is that Indianapolis has not been that effective of late when rushing the football. The offensive line should be 100% healthy for the first time in over a month and that should lead to plenty of wide gaps for Taylor to bust through. If you’re looking to pivot off of Kareem Hunt chalk, Taylor would be my guy.Darrell Henderson Jr. – Miami is dead last in run defense DVOA and the Rams are top-5 on the Adjusted Expected Team Totals tool (and very efficient when running the football). This is an absolute smash spot for Henderson (if and only if McVay lets him loose). We know we’re going to see some Malcolm Brown and Cam Akers, but there’s no doubt in my mind that Henderson earned a much more significant role in the offense over the past few weeks.I’d lock-button Henderson if he were priced down a bit more, but having said that, I’ll have still have ton of Henderson shares tomorrow as he’s likely to be ~5% owned while the field flocks to Gio Bernard at a similar price-point.Le’Veon Bell – at $4,600 on DraftKings and a favorable running gamescript, Le’Veon Bell should absolutely put on a show when he’s on the field this Sunday. His touchdown odds throughout the week have plummeted (in favor of him scoring) and he has a solid rushing prop of 42 rushing yards. If he can get some work in the passing game and find a way into the end-zone (you have to think Andy Reid is going to give Bell every chance he can to score a touchdown against Adam Gase), Bell should walk backwards into 3x value on this low salary.La’Mical Perine – It’s gross, but I’m in. The only way you can really attack this 2020 Kansas City Chiefs’ defense is via the run game. The Jets are a god-awful football team, so there’s nothing sexy about this play at all. But as everyone and their brother punts down to Denzel Mims, I want to pivot up to La’Mical Perine. The AETY Model has Perine projected for 60 rushing yards, which clearly is a bit much, but I’m going to trust it and ride the young running back at 1% ownership.Honorable Mention: Dalvin Cook, Josh Jacobs, Tevin ColemanWide ReceiversDK Metcalf / Tyler Lockett – Again, just getting a ton of exposure to this afternoon game with the highest expected total on the slate. It’s been very difficult to run on this 49ers’ defense and Seattle has been incredibly efficient on offense by moving the ball through the air. They’re going to pass and pass a lot. I give a slight edge to Metcalf this week, but I’m very interested in both in Week 8.Kenny Golladay – I’m done with stacking the Detroit Lions, but I’ll always play a sub $7K Kenny Golladay in a plus matchup against Rock Ya Sin and a washed-up Xavier Rhodes.Tyler Boyd – On Monday, I was all-in on Bengals’ stacks featured by Tyler Boyd and his cakewalk matchup against Titans’ rookie slot cornerback, Chris Jackson, but the weather got me off this game a bit. I will still have a ton of Boyd on Sunday as I don’t think the weather really impacts the routes that Boyd runs on a weekly basis.In addition, this Bengals’ offensive line (which was terrible to begin with) is likely out three starters. Burrow is going to have to get rid of the ball quick and I really only see that having a positive impact on Tyler Boyd and Gio Bernard.Cooper Kupp – Kupp is my favorite WR on the slate this weekend. Nik Needham is arguably the worst cover corner in the NFL and Sean McVay sure as hell knows that. I love Jared Goff this weekend and I adore pairing him up with Cooper Kupp. Slot wide receivers absolutely torch Miami on a weekly basis and they’ve yet to see one as skilled and more importantly, as heavy of a focus in their offense as Cooper Kupp.TY Hilton – He’s $4,900 on DraftKings. This is simply one of my favorite value plays on the slate. He may be washed-up, but the air yards are there on a consistent basis and the matchup is one of the best he’s seen this season. Honorable Mention: Tyreek Hill, Justin Jefferson, AJ Brown, Marquise Brown, Brandon Aiyuk, Jarvis Landry, Marvin JonesNFL DFS GPP Tight EndsTravis Kelce – See Mahomes’ write-up.Mike Gesicki – With how much I love the Rams’ offense this week, I need to run it back with someone on the Dolphins. That someone is going to be Mike Gesicki. I’ve watched plenty of tape on this Rams’ linebacking core and they simply struggle with inside receivers and tight ends. Mike Gesicki is part slot receiver and part tight end. I’m a bit nervous to see how Tua utilizes Gesicki, but I’m diving head first into rostering Gesicki on the other side of my Rams’ stacks. If I’m not fully stacking the Rams, I’ll have a lot one mini stacks of either Henderson or Kupp with Gesicki on the other side.Hunter Henry – He’s simply too cheap for the expected target share. It was a weird week for Henry last week (as two backup tight ends scored touchdowns), but I have no problem going back to Hunter Henry who’s projected for 5 catches for 53 yards. If he can get into the end-zone, he’s going to be a smash value on Sunday afternoon.Honorable Mention: George Kittle, Darren Waller, Jonnu Smith, Noah Fant, Gerald Everett (if Higbee is out)Good luck to all this week in your NFL DFS GPP lineups!Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. 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