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We went 2/2 last night as Draymond Green cashed his 0.5 3-PT Made total and Max Struss blew his 8.5 points total out of the water. It’s time to get it rolling with another NBA DFS slate and we have six games tonight on DraftKings. Below, you’ll find my core plays plus two of my favorite bets.

NBA DFS – Top Targets

Domantas Sabonis $10,300 – 52.48 DK Points – 5.09 Value

We get a monstrous matchup once again with Domantas Sabonis facing off against Nikola Jokic for the fourth time this season. Sabonis has averaged 18 points, 15 rebounds, and eight assists in three games facing Denver. His dominating play has continued in his last five games where he is averaging 21.6 points, 14.2 rebounds, and 10.4 assists. He should be in line for a double-double at a minimum while flirting with a triple-double bonus.

This is going to be a good game to target as two of the three games have hit 240 and 241 total points. On top of that, the Sacramento Kings play at a faster pace, averaging 103.9 possessions per game while Denver averages just 100 possessions. Domantas Sabonis is the fourth-highest projected player on the slate and while Nikola Jokic does project for more, the ownership will be lower for Sabonis with just as much upside.

Make sure you are signed up for our premium plan so you can stay up-to-date in Discord with any last-minute NBA news and any core changes. Get your first week for just $1 using the promo code “DOLLAR” using this link. Find me in Discord under the name “xfreshie” and tag me with any questions.

Norman Powell $4,800 – 30.12 DK Points – 6.27 value

Norman Powell and the Los Angeles Clippers are in a huge pace-up spot tonight versus the Los Angeles Lakers. While they play at a slower pace with 101.4 possessions per game, the Lakers are averaging 104.9. Powell also comes in as the second-highest projected value play with a rating of 6.27. He has found success versus this Lakers team this season already.

In three games versus the Lakers, Powell has averaged 14.3 points, 2.3 rebounds, and 1.7 assists while averaging 28.9 minutes per game. With that, the Lakers have also struggled versus guards, allowing them to average 24.2 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 6 assists per game. Norman Powell will be a key piece to get to better payup spots like Domantas Sabonis or Nikola Jokic tonight.

Kyrie Irving $9,300 – 48.47 DK Points – 5.21 Value Rating

The last team we played a point guard versus Toronto, Tyrese Haliburton disappointed us. I don’t see that happening tonight with Kyrie Irving. With Dallas and Toronto having the second-highest point total, you’ll want a piece of the action. Irving has been playing well as of late. In his last five games, he has averaged 29.6 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 3.8 assists. On the season, he has played consistently, averaging 25.8 points, 5.3 assists, and 5.2 rebounds with a usage rate of 29%.

The obvious piece in this matchup though is Luka Doncic who is hard to pass up. While there would need to be some strong value plays to open by lock time, pairing Kyrie Irving with Doncic wouldn’t be a bad route. It would just be a nearly impossible route and a true punt with scrubs and stars lineup. Doncic and Nikola Jokic are priced high and for good reason which makes Domantas Sabonis the best next pay-up spot to pair with Kyrie Irving.

NBA DFS – Top Bets

Get access to our NBA DFS Player Prop Model here and find the best edge in the industry! Example from yesterday below. Click the image for today’s updated model…………..

Santi Aldama over 12.5 Points + Rebounds -120 (Bet365)

Santi Aldama has found success this season versus Minnesota and is averaging 12 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 2.7 assists in three games. Aldama is projected to do damage once again as he’s projected for 17.34 points and rebounds tonight. Both teams do play at a slower pace and if Minnesota is short-handed once again, Santi Aldama may have an easier route to his total.

Evan Mobley over 0.5 steals -130 (Bet365)

Evan Mobley is a low-total stealing machine. On the season he is averaging almost 1 steal per game and in his last five, he has recorded at least one steal in four of them. Getting to face Chicago once again, they allow opposing centers to average 1.1 steals per game. Plus, Mobley secured one steal and block in their first meeting.

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Welcome my friends to the Monday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots where we get a nice 8 game slate to tackle on DraftKings and FanDuel that kicks off at 7:30 PM EST and we have a whole lot to break down!

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NBA DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown

Welcome to Monday’s 8 Game NBA DFS slate which let’s just go ahead and rename it – The Giannis Slate.

While we may have eight games to choose from, the reality is – having Giannis Antetokounmpo listed as doubtful to play with a sprained knee coming after the slate was created, means we have wild mispricing on the remaining Milwaukee Bucks players.

It is going to lead to some seriously concentrated ownership, but I would argue rightfully so. All of Khris Middleton ($7.6K), Jrue Holiday ($6.8K), Donte DiVincenzo ($6.1K), and Bobby Portis ($4.1K) are far too cheap in this spot with Giannis and his league-high usage rate sidelined.

We have seen the Bucks play without Giannis just once this season – back on January 9th against the Cavaliers. In that game, Portis slid into the starting lineup and dropped 43 DK points while Middleton (46) and Jrue Holiday (38) gave you strong returns on their mid-range pricing.

There is no doubt that the Bucks are good plays tonight – likely optimal plays by any and all metrics. The question for you and anyone playing NBA DFS tonight is how do you play with and off this massive chalk?

Personally – I think you have two ideal options from a GPP perspective – we either fade the chalk entirely or we get the chalk and go all-in on a game stack!

Fade the Chalk

First, you play the all-out fade game with the idea that it is an 8 game slate and we have a ton of great plays in other games. You simply hope the Bucks have good but not great games and your pivots at lower ownership help you set the cash position.

In that game back on January 9th, the Bucks played at a significantly slower pace against the Cavs, just 94 possessions which is significantly off their season-long mark of 105 possessions per game. For context, the 105 mark is top 3 on the season in the entire league while that 94 single-game mark would be lower than any team in the NBA this season.

So if we opt to fade the Bucks chalk in the hope the game plays slow and the high-owned plays see more floor than a ceiling – where do we pivot to for said ceiling?

The reality is – the 9 PM EST games that are all around the Bucks/Pacers have as much injury news we can anchor to and my guess is, it will be focused on far less.

For example – the Celtics will be without Kemba Walker against the fast-paced Grizzlies which means we get point Jayson Tatum ($8.6K) under $9K tonight. Tatum has already shown us the ceiling he has in these kinds of games, going for 50+ DraftKings points in 6 of the 16 games that Kemba has missed – making him a ceiling star we can build around for a bargain price.

If we are looking for a pivot game stack – the Raptors and Rockets rank as two of the bottom 4 defensive teams in the NBA over the last 10 games and we could see additional injury news and value open up here. The Rockets are on the tail end of a B2B which means Victor Oladipo and John Wall are names to watch. I do find it interesting that Oladipo is not on any site right now with projected starters which means this could be the John Wall ($7.1K) show for the Rockets.

I love a good narrative in NBA DFS and it is hard to think this Rockets teams will not somehow rally around their coach Stephen Silas. If you missed the Coach’s post-game yesterday – watch this and tell me you don’t think this team is going to rally around him at some point.

https://twitter.com/AdamSpolane/status/1373736997278396427

Wall has shown 50+ upside with Dipo sidelined and I think that using him and Christian Wood ($8K) tonight IF Oladipo is out, could pay big dividends against a Toronto team that has been dreadful defensively the last 10 games.

Toronto is allowing teams to shoot the ball at nearly 50% in this recent stretch while giving up the 2nd most 3’s per game of any team in the NBA. They are allowing the most FTA per game at nearly 30 per game, giving up the 3rd most rebounds per game (behind the Rockets mind you) and the third most assist per game.

This has not been the Raptors defense we are used to and I think if Dipo sits, the usage would all flow to Wall/Wood who have paths to monster ceiling games.

With the Raptors back at full strength now, they have opted to play smaller with Pascal Siakam ($7.5K) at the 5 and that would make this Wood-Siakam match-up REALLY intriguing in my mind because this game could play really fast. In the last two games, the Raptors have played at a 101 possession pace with Siakam at the 5 which is a 10% improvement on their season-long pace metrics.

While the Raptors have been bad defensively – so too have the Rockets. In the last 10 games, they rank bottom 5 in FG% allowed, rebounds per game allowed, assists per game allowed, and 3 PM made per game. If you are telling me, I can get the usual 35-40 minutes for guys like Siakam, Fred VanVleet ($7.6K), and Kyle Lowry ($8.1K) in this spot – at the same price points as guys like Middleton/Jrue – oh baby, hello pivot town!

Eat The Chalk

The second option – you go all-in on this chalk – but do so in the context of the game stack against the Pacers. If you eat the chalk and played 2, 3, or even 4 Bucks tonight, I think you are can double down and run it back with Indiana Pacers in the hope this game is close throughout and you get ceilings on both sides.

The nice part about this game stack is that both teams play relatively condensed rotations and the pricing is such that a game stack is easy to build at the core of your NBA DFS lineups.

Domantas Sabonis ($9K) gets to take on the same Bucks teams he faced a month ago and dropped 59 DK points against and now he has no Giannis to worry about on the interior.

Malcolm Brogdon ($7.2K) has been the model of consistency for the Pacers with 38.5 points now in 3 of his last 4 games and is averaging 40 DK points per game over his last six games which puts him at a solid 5.5x value at tonight’s price point.

Myles Turner ($5.8K) is coming off back to back strong outings with 32 and 36 DK points but that has been completely driven by two straight games with 5 blocked shots. The upside is there but boy oh boy – those blocks are a volatile commodity when it comes to NBA DFS scoring.

Caris LeVert ($6.4K) was not available the first time these teams met but he is not at a point, after three games of 30+ minutes, where the ceiling could be unlocked as the usage and offensive volume has been trending upwards.

The Pacers have played at the 10th fastest pace in the NBA over the last 10 games and have been playing at this pace essentially since LeVert returned which is a serious uptick from the 15-20th ranking in pace they had prior to LeVert re-joining the team. If the Bucks play at a “Giannis pace” in this game, the Pacers are showing they are willing to do the same it could mean a fast-paced shootout that allows for ceilings on both sides.

NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up

This Monday Night NBA DFS slate is a monster and one that I think allows for far more strategy than simply “picking the best plays.” Anytime we get big injury news to a star player as early as we got the Giannis news, it is going to skew ownership in a major may and we need to adjust accordingly.

With Giannis doubtful to play, the NBA DFS question of the night is how you approach the Bucks chalk. Do you simply eat it and go all-in hoping the Pacers run back gives you a game stack ceiling? Or can you pivot entirely, attacking other high ceiling spots on an 8-game slate that will go over-looked? If the Bucks chalk flops, you have a path to one of those GPP memorable nights!

Enjoy this slate – let’s get in our FREE Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and custom projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this NBA DFS season with some big wins!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @2LockSports and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

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