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After a swing of tournaments in the Middle East, the DP World Tour ventures to their second preview of Africa for the Magical Kenya Open. This tournament is always a lot of fun and has produced some thrilling finishes. Much of that comes down to the golf course, as we preview the Magical Kenya Open host Muthaiga Golf Club.

Muthaiga Golf Club host our Magical Kenya Open Preview

The difference between Muthaiga and the PGA Tour Mexico Open venue this week, Vidanta Vallarta, are that they are as polar opposite to each other as they are geographically. This got me thinking about many of the DP World Tour players who have made their way to Mexico this week. Someone like Bjork could be much more suited to the course in Kenya than the one he will face this week.

Perhaps we will see a trend develop in time, with those who hold duel access selecting where they play more on the venue than which Tour is on first glance seemingly paying the most money. It is certainly interesting times we are living in for those of us in the golf industry.

Dial-in on H2H Match-ups this week

The specific nature of the course this week can produce wonderful opportunities for mismatches in rounds 3 and 4 matchups, where you can get two golfers with quite different player profiles who have achieved their score via different means. Keep an eye on the WinDaily Premium Discord for opportunities as we spot them!

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Magical Kenya Open Preview Muthaiga Course Analysis

Onto a preview of the golf course then, where the Magical Kenya Open returns once again to Muthaiga Golf Club.

It is very important to note to use course history this week. Despite hosting events in Kenya since 1967, the event has alternated between Muthaiga and Karen Country Club. 2022 and 2023 were both held at the current venue, as were 2017 and 2018 on the Challenge Tour. 2019 and 2021 were played at Karen CC, as were Challenge Tour events from 2013-2016. You get the idea. Although I wouldn’t totally discount form at Karen, this is quite a different test.

I’ll note the Seve factor as well. How often do you see a winning Spanish golfer commenting how “Seve Ballesteros won at this course” and that provided inspiration for them? The effect is real and provides such huge emotional motivation for Spanish players. Seve won this event back in 1978 at Muthaiga and we have seen other Spaniards play well here since. This includes last year’s winner, Jorge Campillo.

Although on paper the golf course looks long enough at 7,228 yards for a par 71, bear in mind that Nairobi is at an altitude of 6,000 feet. That sees the golf ball travel quite significantly further in the air. In fact, the distance increase is up to 20% in the modern age of golf ball technology.

Driving Accuracy the Key to Success

Where Muthaiga gets it’s defense is in the extremely narrow nature of the course. There is barely in runout from the fairway before you are in the towering trees.

Past champion Jeremy Robinson said: “Muthaiga is a narrow course – I think they’ve changed a few of the holes but I remember that being the overriding factor, it being narrow. You had to drive the ball straight because the rough was pretty thick and it wasn’t a long course, even in those days. Hit the ball straight, get used to the grain on the greens, the different grasses, and it’s more of a thinker’s course, unlike a lot of the courses today that favour longer hitters.”

Robinson went on to note how the unique grass types and nature of the course would prove difficult on debut; a sentiment I largely agree with.

It is no wonder then that we have seen some of the straightest hitters on tour find success here. Other links can be found in those who have played well at altitude previously. Perhaps the ability to best adjust to yardages plays a factor there. Greens are very small and scoring should not get out of control.

Muthaiga Golf Club Course Comps

Strangely enough, one of the better course comps for our Magical Kenya Open preview comes from the Swiss Alps. Crans-sur-Sierre is of course also played at altitude, but is a narrow course emphasising driving accuracy and small greens. Soderberg has found success on both courses, with Thriston Lawrence winning at Crans and runner-up at Muthaiga both on debut.

Valderrama is a very narrow, tree-lined test that has favoured the accurate drivers with sharp approach play. Players such as Kinhult link the two, finishing 8th at Muthaiga and 6th at Valderrama later that year. Catlin finished 15th on debut appearance at Muthaiga, a fine performance for a first start, and holds a record at Valderrama of W-11-11.

Le Golf National asks similar questions, but in a different way. The penalty at the Open de France host for a wayward driver is often a watery end. Again, greens are small with penalty severe for a miss. Kinhult also has a 5th there. He may well have made the Magical Kenya Open preview betting card had he shown any glimpse of form in the last 6 months. Julien Brun has gone 13-7 at Muthaiga and 13-6 at Le Golf National. It should provide a fascinating host course for the 2024 Paris Olympics, but is a handy guide for our Magical Kenya Open preview.

Weather

High winds are forecast for Nairobi to begin the week. Wind gusts above 30mph are no joke, even with some protection from the tall trees on this property.

Some rain is set to develop on Friday afternoon. As long as this does not become too severe this could prove beneficial in softening the greens, which can play pretty fast at times. If the rain becomes heavy in conjunction with the wind, it could become very difficult.

As the winds are quite consistent all day, I don’t think a substantial weather edge will develop for week long. You may see a small edge for those playing Thursday AM/Friday PM if light rain softens and slows greens. The caveat for that will come from the level of rain experienced Friday afternoon. For DFS purposes, I think a case could be made for building a number of line-ups in each direction to provide protection and leverage on the field.

Magical Kenya Open Preview Golf Betting Tips

If you would like to read my golf betting tips for the Magical Kenya Open, you can preview these in this article here in the WinDaily Premium Discord here.

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Thank you for reading my Magical Kenya Open preview and tournament analysis. I look forward to welcoming you into the WinDaily family and celebrating many, many wins with you in 2024!

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Before getting into our betting tips for the Magical Kenya Open, I do recommend having a read of my tournament preview article here. You can catch-up on all my deep-dive course analysis of Muthaiga Golf Club, course comps, and weather for the tournament. Hopefully, this helps provide a glimpse into ...

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Before getting into our betting tips for the Ras Al Khaimah Championship, I do recommend having a read of my tournament preview article here. You can catch-up on all my deep-dive analysis of Al Hamra Golf Club this week, correlated course form, and weather for the tournament. Hopefully, this helps ...

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DeepDiveGolf provides his Ras Al Khaimah Championship preview

The DP World Tour remains in the United Arab Emirates for another week as we preview the Ras Al Khaimah Championship. It has been a start to the year with frustratingly close calls every week. This week in Dubai, it was Adrian Meronk in 2nd and Joaquin Niemann in 4th. We cash a full place payout for us with both at +625. We also cash a Top 40 on Jayden Schaper at +180. Although frustrating, we can take solace in the fact we are consistently finding the value plays that are in contention. It only becomes a matter of time before one finds the Sunday we need to get the job done and collect in a big way.

This is where the equation of expected value comes into play. Whenever you place a wager, you will have a expected return from that bet over time. The aim is to place a bet at odds which are not an accurate reflection of the win equity that golfer actually possesses. Rory McIlroy deservedly claimed his 4th Dubai Desert Classic title this week. It is an event where I first scored for him as a 16 year old amateur, and where he secured his first tournament win just three years later. However, he would need to win the event more than 5 times as often as Meronk or Niemann to justify his very short odds. It is easy to fall into the trap of seeing a bet cash and thinking it was a good play.

It is key to make that important distinction, where you can actually place a bet that wins but over time it is a losing bet. Let’s dive into some research to help us find the value with our Ras Al Khaimah Championship preview.

Al Hamra Golf Club Course Analysis

The DP World Tour move just 90 minutes up the road to Ras Al Khaimah. This will be the 4th time Al Hamra Golf Club has hosted an event. Do note that one was titled the Ras Al Khaimah Classic instead of Championship, so make sure to take a course history preview here to get the full breadth of data for your analysis.. There also was the 2018 Ras Al Khaimah Challenge Tour Grand Final and the 2016 and 2017 Ras Al Khaimah Golf Challenge on the grade below the DP World Tour.

What has been clear thus far is that the strong drivers of the golf ball experience a distinct advantage. Nicolai Hojgaard won in 2022 and Ryan Fox lifted his first DP World Tour trophy here a week later. Jordan Smith won here on the Challenge Tour, with Meronk a runner-up at the same level also holding a 4th and 6th at DP World Tour grade. Victor Perez has finishes of 7-2-13 in three starts. All are also excellent approach players.

Winner Daniel Gavins last season was the anomaly. He gained +9.04 SG: Putting on the field in the best putting week of his career. That was also a particularly windy tournament, correlating to putting became a more decisive factor that year.

That all makes sense for a 7,410 yard par 72. Fairways are plenty wide. Greens are also above average size. With winning scores typically ranging in the -17 to -22 mark, taking care of the four par 5s is going to go a long way towards victory here. All those players named, outside Gavins, have finished in the top 10 of par 5 scoring in either 2022 or 2023.

Al Hamra Golf Club Course Comps

As always in our weekly preview, we provide some golf courses where correlating form may prove influential at the Ras Al Khaimah Championship. In it’s short stint on the DP World Tour, Al Hamra Golf Club has already seen prior course form prove fairly “sticky”. This correlation will only fully reveal itself the more tournaments we have at this venue. But, the fact we have seen multiple longer odds players build up a decent record here already proves promising.

He surmised in our preview of the 2023 Andalucia Masters that Copa Sotogrande could be a good correlation to here. It was the first professional tournament at that golf course. Sadly, LIV Golf took over hosting tournaments at the iconic Valderrama. The links do seem well-founded. There has long been a link between Iberian Peninsula and the Middle East courses. This comes from a combination of climate, low scoring, positive driving, and generally being in windier coastal locations. Reading through the leaderboard, long drivers dominated. Meronk won and was followed by names like Schmid, Mansell, Hanna, De Jager, Ko, Olesen, Perez, Pavon, and Bachem to name just a few.

Other Iberian form can be found at former Portugal Masters course Dom Pedro. Likewise, Open de Espana host Club de Campo Villa de Madrid should be considered. Both preview to be driver paradise’s over the years and show good leaderboard correlation to the Ras Al Khaimah Championship.

Last week’s host, Emirates Golf Club, is far from the worst comp for our Ras Al Khaimah Championship preview. Players such as Meronk, Arnaus, and Fisher link the two nicely. This also provides a nice combination with a guide to recent incoming form.

Ras Al Khaimah Championship Weather Preview

As is the typical for the region, you will often find the mornings calm and winds to build in the afternoon. This is the same instance of on-shore breeze we so often see in the Iberian Peninsula and Middle East. This should particularly play a factor in first-round leader markets.

Whether a tournament long draw advantage develops is less likely. Currently, both Thursday and Friday the winds look similar. Winds are clam in the mornings and reaching 10-15 mph gusts in the afternoon. Sunday does look to see some increased winds. This could present some opportunity for in-play bets. Should the afternoon end up extremely windy, a golfer not too far back going off in more favourable conditions may be able to chase down the leaders before the winds arrive.

Our latest weather forecasts using premium models will be available in our premium Discord channel.

Ras Al Khaimah Championship Preview Golf Betting Tips

Thank you for reading my Ras Al Khaimah Championship preview and tournament analysis.
If you would like access to my golf betting tips and player profiles for the Ras Al Khaimah Championship, you can find these here.

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Before getting into our betting tips for the Dubai Desert Classic, I do recommend having a read of my tournament preview article here. You can catch-up on all my deep-dive analysis of the Majilis Course at Emirates Golf Club, correlated course form, and weather for the tournament. It also helps prov...

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The DP World Tour remains in Dubai for another week for one of the season highlights. As a Rolex Series event, this is not only one of the best fields but also one of the largest purses. The list of past winners reads as a who’s who of European golf. It is often a marker of golfers we can expect big futures from. Included in that list is Rory McIlroy. I met a curly haired 16 year old amateur McIlroy here in 2006. He would achieve his first ever tournament win here in 2009 and has thrice lifted the famous coffee pot trophy. Emirates Golf Club was also my home course for the 8 years I lived in Dubai. Hopefully, that additional local experience helps our Dubai Desert Classic preview.

A very young DeepDiveGolf at the Dubai Desert Classic with Lee Westwood
A very young DeepDiveGolf with Lee Westwood at a coaching clinic 2007 Dubai Desert Classic

As frustrated as Rory will be after the inaugural Dubai Invitational, where he really should have won, it is perhaps easy to feel the same about our week. However, I feel quietly positive after the tournament. It was always going to be a tricky event to tip. Firstly, markets were dominated by McIlroy and eventual champion Tommy Fleetwood at very short single figure odds. Further, the golf course had not been used on tour for 24 years. It took some extensive diving into 1990s leaderboards!

I was pleased to see our extra deep-dive analysis proved true. We nailed the winning score, our course comps worked perfectly, and key metrics were spot on. Frustratingly, our three golfers named as last off the card all made the top 10 with Thriston Lawrence runner-up. Overall, I take it as a positive our analysis was so accurate. It bodes well entering our Dubai Desert Classic preview and the season as a whole.

Rory McIlroy is in the Dubai Desert Classic field in our preview

Emirates Golf Club Course Analysis

The Majilis course at Emirates Golf Club plays host to the Dubai Desert Classic, as we preview what to expect from the golf course this week. This venue has held the tournament since 1989, except for 1999 and 2000 when last week’s Dubai Invitational venue Dubai Creek hosted briefly. Whereas Dubai Creek is a short and narrow course, the Emirates is a long and expansive property. The Majilis course plays as a 7,428 yard par 72 and is one of the longest golf courses on the DP World Tour.

That provides the first clue of what is required for success here. A strong driver is well correlated to success here. Rory McIlroy is obviously one of the best in the business with that club. Bryson DeChambeau is a past champion with a record of 18-1-8 here. Other past champions Lucas Herbert and Viktor Hovland can send the ball out there, as can Sergio Garcia who is both long and straight with the driver.

Our second clue comes from approach play. Obviously, several of those already named are some of the best ball-strikers in the business. Names like Paul Casey, Lee Westwood, Tyrrell Hatton, and Ian Poulter add to that list. Putting also receives an uptick here compared to other golf courses.

The bulk of scoring will happen on the back 9. That features 3 par 5s and the par 4 17th which is drivable if you cut the corner. This culminates in dramatic final hole, with a carry over water required if going for the green in two. It always make for an exhilarating end of the round. Being able to draw the ball is a big positive, with majority of key holes playing right-to-left.

The 18th hole could decide the tournament for our Dubai Desert Classic preview
The 18th hole at Emirates Golf Club

Emirates Golf Club Comp Courses

Firstly, it pays to highlight in our Dubai Desert Classic preview that prior course form is vitally important. This is the most correlated golf course on the DP World Tour for prior form as a predictor to future success. We have seen a number of players become course specialists. Perhaps none more so than Stephen Gallacher. He held an insane record here of 10-2-1-1-3-MC-9 between 2011 and 2017. 20% of his career Top 5s came right here.

There has also been a link between the Majilis Course and Augusta National. Both Danny Willett and Sergio Gracia won The Masters they same year they lifted the Dubai Desert Classic trophy. Although the struggles of Rory at The Masters are well documented, part of the frustrations come from the fact he has also recorded 7 Top 10s.

Spaniards have always done well here. Golf on the Iberian Peninsula provides a good guide to Middle East golf. This is likely a combination of warmer weather, coastal winds, and the creativity required especially on approach. Garcia, Cabrera-Bello, Quiros, Jimenez, Olazabal, and Seve Ballesteros have all won here. The Seve factor often plays a part for Spanish golfers.

Neighbouring Jumeirah Golf Estates, host of the DP World Tour Championship, is a good guide. It ticks a driver friendly course with low scoring, comfortability in Dubai, and performance in a high class field featuring the best golfers of the year.

Eichenreid is notoriously a brutal driving course and has very strong links. Haotong Li, Hovland, Stenson, Els, Willett, Jimenez, Bjorn, and Montgomerie have all won at both golf courses. If we extend that to runner-ups, the list is even more extensive.

Dubai Desert Classic Weather Preview

It would be remiss to not speak about weather in any Dubai Desert Classic preview. The Middle Eastern tournaments are notorious for onshore breezes. With hot coastal locations like this, the land heats up throughout the day. As the land heats up, so does the air above it which then rises. This creates an area of low pressure, and see colder air from over the ocean rush onto land.

This used to be so predictable that I always tried to play the back 9 first if playing an afternoon tee-time. The winds would come in around 1pm, remaining for 3-4 hours before fading towards dusk. It meant avoiding a really tough stretch of holes from 6 to 9 into the wind. Winds have played a large part in many tournaments, none more so than in 2020 when wind specialist Lucas Herbert was victorious.

Currently, our premium modelling suggest winds look very high on the Wednesday but relatively calm during tournament play Thursday-Sunday. We will keep a sharp eye on this as the week develops, as any wave advantage here can often be very distinct and clear.

Make sure you check-in to our WinDaily Discord channel for the latest weather updates prior to tournament start.

Dubai Desert Classic Preview Golf Betting Tips

Thank you for reading my Dubai Desert Classic preview and deep-dive tournament analysis.
If you would like access to my golf betting tips and player profiles for the Dubai Desert Classic, premium customers can find these here.

For the start of a new golf season, we have a special offer on our premium memberships.
We are so confident in our pricing that we guarantee this will be our best deal ever in 2024. Basically, if you see a cheaper price advertised in 2024 we will happily refund you the difference on your annual membership.

JOIN HERE NOW with an annual membership.
Simply use PROMO code DEEPDIVEDEAL and get 2024 for just $USD240!
That is a saving of $209.99 off our usual annual premium membership price of $449.99.
ENDS 31 JANUARY 2024.

You gain access to all of our premium golf articles with betting tips and DFS player pools, but also premium access to ALL sports that WinDaily Sports cover. With experts in nearly every field, no one provides better value.

One of the best aspects of a premium membership is access to our premium Discord channel. You will be able to receive one on one coaching with me, as well as ask any questions you may have

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DeepDiveGolf is back as we preview the Dubai Invitational

With the DP World Tour kicking off their 2024 season, golf is officially back! Of course, The Sentry kicked off proceedings on the PGA Tour last week and we rocketed to +140% ROI after the first event. However, in lieu of taking early retirement for the year and letting that record stand, I though it was only right to deliver all our avid readers with at least a Dubai Invitational preview.

It is the return of the DP World Tour, but also a return to a previously used course for our Dubai Invitational preview. The DP World Tour heads back to Dubai Creek Golf & Yacht Club for the first time since 2000. First opened in 1993, it was designed by Karl Litten. He also is the designer behind the Emirates Golf Club Majlis Course, where next week’s Dubai Desert Classic is held.

The course is a short par 71 at just 7,059 yards. The average length of par 4s and par 5s is only 449 yards. That is comparable to PGA National and Harbour Town on the PGA Tour. With a small field of just 60 golfers, it should be an intriguing event.

Dubai Creek Golf Course Analysis

The picturesque Dubai Creek Golf & Yacht Club hosted both the 1999 and 2000 Dubai Desert Classic, the only iterations held away from the Emirates Golf Club, before returning to the Majilis Course where it has remained since. The course also hosted a MENA Tour tournament in 2017, the Dubai Creek Open. You can find that leaderboard here, and it is 2nd place finisher Todd Clements providing some guidance this week.

Fact is, with a (basically) new golf course we have to take some educated guesses here for our Dubai Invitational preview. Luckily, you are in slightly more informed hands with me. I lived in Dubai 8 years growing up and learning golf. I was a member at Emirates Golf Club and played Dubai Creek as a very bad junior golfer.

For me, Dubai Creek is quite a contrast to Emirates Golf Club. Dubai Creek is heavily guarded by water, either from the Dubai Creek itself or other man-made lakes internally. Fairways are narrow and pinch in at key points. The penalty for missing is severe. And that is where Todd Clements comes in.

The only strength to Clements game is his driving accuracy. This is affirmed when looking into the very limited data left from those two Dubai Desert Classic tournaments. The vast majority of the top 10 were inside the top 20 for driving accuracy across their rounds.

The two tournaments were won at -13 and -14, but note the -13 for the MENA Tour was a 54 hole event. The standard of golf now is obviously better. And, as we have all heard this past year, the ball is travelling further. Something around -18 I suspect might be enough to get the job done this time.

Dubai Creek Course Comps

Again, some guess work is required to find some parallels to other courses here for our Dubai Invitational preview. Paul McGinley finished 2nd and 3rd in the two tournaments here. One of his 4 victories is around Valderrama, another iconic narrow course held in warm climes of Spain. 2000 winner here Jose Coceres won just one other tournament, the Catalan Open in Spain, so Valderrama may be a reasonable option to consider.

McGinley was 2nd following a play-off at Le Golf National. The 1999 winner David Howell was also a runner-up at the Open de France. Jamie Spence recorded a 2nd place finish there, alongside a 4th place finish in the 2000 tournament here. Visually, this makes a lot of sense. Both feature narrow fairways with copious amounts of water in-play.

A few form lines run though Portugal and Madeira, but they lead to dead-ends with the courses no longer featuring on the DP World Tour. We are talking about tournaments some 25 years ago after all. For perspective, Justin Rose played both events finishing 125th and 136th. But to be fair, he was 18 years old at the time… Outside those two courses, I believe a general aptitude on the Iberian Peninsula holds some appeal.

I do believe this is different to the other Dubai based golf courses on the DP World Tour. However, general positive performances in the region are a positive.

Dubai Invitational Preview Weather

A brief word on weather for our Dubai Invitational preview. Dubai Creek Golf course is very exposed to any wind. In prior iterations, winds have played a significant part in at least one round. Dubai does have a fairly reliable onshore breeze. As the land heats up air rises, so cooler winds from over the ocean rush onto land. When living there, this was almost like clockwork and would arrive around 1pm. It would then blow heavily until the early evening when it would begin to ease slightly.

However, the rejigged DP World Tour schedule has seen these events move slightly earlier in the year. Cooler temperatures means this effect is less likely. This is winter after all, so temperature will be in the low to mid 20s. That is 70-75F for those of you with metric challenges.

Current forecasts show only moderate winds for all four days. That is perhaps welcome relief for the golfers, as the number of shots where you need to tread close to water would become infinitely more difficult with wind in the picture.

Dubai Invitational Preview Golf Betting Tips

Thank you for reading my Dubai Invitational preview and tournament analysis.
If you would like access to my golf betting tips and player profiles for the Dubai Invitational, you can find these here.

For the start of a new golf season, we have a special offer on our premium memberships.
We are so confident in our pricing that we guarantee this will be our best deal ever in 2024. Basically, if you see a cheaper price advertised in 2024 we will happily refund you the difference on your annual membership.

JOIN HERE NOW with an annual membership.
Simply use PROMO code DEEPDIVEDEAL and get 2024 for just $USD240!
That is a saving of $209.99 off our usual annual premium membership price of $449.99.

You gain access to all of our premium golf articles with betting tips and DFS player pools, but also premium access to ALL sports that WinDaily Sports cover. With experts in nearly every field, no one provides better value.

One of the best aspects of a premium membership is access to our premium Discord channel. You will be able to receive one on one coaching with me, as well as ask any questions you may have

I look forward to welcoming you into the WinDaily family and celebrating many, many wins with you in 2024!

One and Done Tips

Most One and Done golf contests will begin this week at the Sony Open. I have compiled your ULTIMATE strategy guide to the season. I deep-dive some One and Done strategy, as well as preview every single tournament this year. Even if you don’t play One and Done, it is well worth a bookmark to get a brief overview of each golf course on the PGA Tour this year. If you haven’t read already make sure to check out this article.

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Before getting into our betting tips for the Dubai Invitational, I do recommend having a read of my tournament preview article here. Here I provide my deep-dive analysis of the course, correlated course form, and weather for the tournament.
With a reduced field of 60, we invariably follow suit with...

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Frustrated losing money betting? Here are the most common sport betting mistakes I encounter

As a golf analyst, one of the questions I am most often asked is what I do differently to others. Fact is, the vast majority of sport bettors will lose money. Bookmakers are not in the business of losing money. Actually, Americans have lost a reported $245billion on sports betting since restrictions loosened in 2018. However, sometimes it is the things you don’t do which are just as important as the actions you do take. I have many years of measured and consistent profit in the betting tips I provide. My hope for you is that, if you do choose to gamble, you do so in a safer and more informed manner. Here are the most common sport betting mistakes which I encounter on a regular basis.

Common Sport Betting Mistakes: Great Expectations

First in the common sport betting mistakes I come across is sport bettors unrealistic expectations. It is great to have goals. It is fantastic to have a dream. Simply put, you are extremely unlikely to get rich quick from gambling. Any website or tipster who advises you that you can gain enormous wealth immediately using their system is lying to you. Yes, you might get lucky and randomly hit one very big parlay. But, in actuality, sports betting is a grind. Any edge that exists is in the margins and is, generally, small.

For example, take my results for the past two years. In the 2022 golf season, I showed a return on investment of +25%. In 2023, we had a return on investment of +33%. That 2023 result would be the equivalent of placing a single bet of -303. Of course this is spread across an entire year, therefore lowering your risk compared to placing one rather large bet.

Sure, those results exceed the performance of the S&P 500. But, that is the result of years of gradual progress. And it places my results in some of the best and most consistent in the golf betting industry.

Therefore, sports gambling should primarily be for fun. You should never, ever, bet more than you can afford to lose. Bankroll management is key. Your maximum bet size should not exceed 1-2% of your total funds you are prepared to invest. Approach it responsibly and with the full knowledge that you could lose everything you put in.

Common Sport Betting Mistakes: Gambler’s fallacy

Another common sport betting mistake is known as the gambler’s fallacy. In short, many gamblers believe that prior results mean a future result is near guaranteed to happen. Roulette provides perhaps the easiest analogy. If a black number has fallen 7 times in a row, some gamblers will believe that the next number should surely be red. After all, the roulette wheel will fall on red and black roughly the same percentage of the time right?

The fact is, each spin of the roulette wheel is a completely independent event. The wheel does not remember that the last 7 spins were black. Your odds are still exactly the same. For red or black, that is 48.65% for a single zero wheel (and don’t even get me started on people who choose to play a wheel with two zeroes!) Over a long period of time, it will trend towards that number. But most gamblers seem to think in a very short timeframe.

Of course, in sport betting, recent form is still a very important factor to consider. However, you should focus on self-awareness and avoid falling into the trap of gambler’s fallacy. No golfer is ever “due” to win. Also, just because a golfer won last week doesn’t mean they are less likely to win the following week because they got their “usual” one win for the year. Each tournament is a new event, on a different golf course, in variable conditions, and with a new field. Your bets should be based in evidence and research. Be precise and measured in your approach.

Common Sport Betting Mistakes: Convoluting probability and value

Perhaps the most common error I find sport bettors making is confusing probability and value. First, we need to understand what expected value is. This uses elements of game theory and implied probability.

Every time you place a bet, that bet has an expected value. Going back to the roulette example, on a single zero wheel the expected value is -2.7%. That is to say that, over time, you can expect to lose 2.7% of your gambled amount. This is calculated as the 37 possible numbers on the wheel, where 19 results being losing bets and the other 18 being where you double your amount bet.

The only way to consistently win at sport betting is to place bets with a positive expected value. My role is to provide you with selections where the odds on offer are not a fair reflection of the golfer’s actual chances. For example, if Rory McIlroy is given odds of +1900 to win a golf tournament, the bookmaker is saying he has a 5% chance to win that tournament. However, if our research and projections show that he actually has a 7% chance to win the tournament then an opportunity exists. That +2% difference between the implied odds and the projected probability is the small margins I allude to.

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I often find people confuse probability and value. Some will make statements claiming a certain golfer will never win. Others will say that one golfer is much more likely to win than another. Those statements can both be true. However, the odds often reflect this reality. The better golfer is more than likely lower odds as a result. Instead, you are better to simply remain focused whether each set of odds truly reflect the probability of that event occurring.

Common Sport Betting Mistakes: Not tracking results

It amazes me how many sports bettors do not track their bets. And that likely means that you actually already know you are losing money sport betting.

Unfortunately, this is also all too common from multiple touts. I surmise that, more often than not, the reason they don’t is because they are afraid to look. Find tipsters that you respect and enjoy reading, but also look for those that transparently publish their profit and loss for better or worse.

Can you imagine a business that never calculated what it was spending and what it revenue was? Undoubtedly, the future of that business would be untenable. You should take the same approach with your sport betting. Be transparent and honest with yourself. If you are ok losing money sport betting and are doing so responsibly whilst gaining enjoyment, then that is fine. That is something for you to decide. If you are determined to try make a little money sport betting, then you should know where you are to determine where you are trying to go.

Sportsbooks will produce a profit and loss statement for you. I prefer a more manual approach, as there is useful data to be gained from knowing specifically what type of bets win and learning from mistakes I’ve made. Either way, you should know what you are spending and where.

Common Sport Betting Mistakes: Going on “gut feeling”

Let’s face it. Sportsbooks likely know more than you do. After all, it is their job and sole reason for existence. They have teams of highly skilled experts covering every sport, limiting their exposure, and complicated algorithms to project likely outcomes. They are likely investing more time into research and models than you are. If not for time, their models are likely better than yours.

Have you accurately assessed every golfer in the field, the type of golf course they are playing, what the weather conditions will be, and any and all other factors potentially impacting on the event? Hand on heart, I would struggle to ever say I’ve taken every single possible factor into account. Some factors are also simply unknown. Take when Erik Van Rooyen won for us in 2023 at 80/1. I had no idea when I recommended the bet that this factor was in play:

Scottie Scheffler doesn’t care about that funny feeling in your stomach that tells you he is going to play well this week. Too often, I see people celebrating bets they won which they placed on a “hunch”. You should avoid like the plague any touts who use language like “I’ve got a feeling” too often. Sports betting isn’t based on feelings. In fact, it should be as emotionless as possible.

Don’t bet on players because you like them and think you are a successful sport bettor. Conversely, don’t fade players simply because you dislike them. It should be a statistical and analytical approach. You are looking for opportunities where the chance of the golfer winning is greater than their odds suggest.

Avoiding common sport betting mistakes

Stick to a system

Much akin to tracking your bets, you should also be methodical in your approach to sport betting. One big error I see punters make is placing too many bets. Just because a tournament is on, doesn’t mean that you have to bet it. In certain events, I won’t produce any tips. Commonly, this is because the field is too small and there exists no statistical edge to any bet as the hold the books have is simply too strong. In other circumstances, we might have poor or incomplete date for many golfers in a weaker field as they do not play enough higher profile tournaments.

Following a system prevents such errors as suddenly betting significantly more after a big win. Infinitely worse is those who are chasing losses. When you’ve lost more money than you are comfortable, you need to appreciate that the money is gone. Throwing more money on the fire is rarely going to put it out. Instead, take the time to reflect on your gambling and whether it is at a level that is actually sustainable and safe for you.

By being consistent and methodical in your approach, you can mitigate this risk. I follow a system with clear unit sizing based on the perceived edge we have between the implied odds and projected probability. I typically select between 5-8 golfers each week where the highest expected value exists. This does not vary week to week. As you increase your bankroll, you can begin to slowly increase your stake as long as you remain below your total weekly limit of % of your bankroll.

Shop your odds

It should go without saying, but you need to shop your odds. I appreciate this can be frustrating, as it often results in needing multiple accounts with different bookmakers to obtain the best odds.

However, as already noted, we so often operate under small margins in sport betting. The difference between a golfer being priced +2000 and +2500 looks small on paper. What that really means is you have given up a free 1% of implied probability. The lower the odds, the smaller deviation from the best odds is required to provide a rather substantial difference.

This cuts directly into your margin and potential profit. There are many websites out there which will give you an overview of what odds each bookmaker is offering for an event. Use them.

With all my selections, I provide detailed information of the exact odds used and where they were obtained at time of publication. This makes it easy for you and gives you the peace of mind that you’re backing a selection with a positive expected value.

If you can find better odds than I have published at another reputable bookmaker, then even better! But do be careful with golf betting and place terms for each-way bets, as these can affect the implied probability even though the headline number may be the same.

Take yourself out of the equation

If you are determined to be a better sports bettor, one of the best things you can do is to invest in a WinDaily Sports premium membership.

Yes, my selections have been proven to be profitable over a substantial period. I don’t promise that you will get rich quick. But, we have shown to turn a profit consistently over time and I can guarantee you will have fun along the way. You can have all the thrill of cheering on your golfers each week, with less risk and time than doing the extensive research required yourself.

You gain access to all of our premium golf articles with betting tips and DFS player pools, but also premium access to ALL sports that WinDaily Sports cover. With experts in nearly every field, no one provides better value.

However, one of the best aspects of a premium membership is access to our premium Discord channel.
You will be able to receive one-on-one coaching with myself and others, as well as asking me directly any questions you have.

For the start of a new golf season, we have a special offer on our premium memberships.
We are so confident in our pricing that we guarantee this will be our best deal ever in 2024.

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I look forward to welcoming you into the WinDaily family and celebrating many wins with you in 2024!

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Having selected winner Vincent Norrman at 45/1 and Ryan Fox in 3rd at 40/1 at the Irish Open, it was a week of what could have been at the BMW PGA Championship. Undoubtedly, my fellow countryman Ryan Fox was a deserving winner. The composure he displayed down the final stretch was incredibly compel...

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