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PGA DFS Picks: Fortinet Championship

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

It’s the start of a new PGA TOUR season and our PGA DFS picks will help us find you some winning teams at the Fortinet Championship!

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PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Full tournament field of 150 golfers, including some elite players
  • Cut: Top 65 and ties after 36 holes
  • Not a stacked PGA DFS field, but some new faces with tour cards are ready to compete!
  • The course: Silverado CC (North Course) in Napa, CA
    • Par 72: 7,166 yards – redesigned by Johnny Miller
    • Smaller poa annua greens (some Bentgrass mixed in) will play fast this week
    • Shorter course with some tight fairways that longer hitters may be able to dominate
    • Gettable par 5s in the 550-600 range, some shorter par 4s
    • Defending champion: Stewart Cink (-21)
  • Clear skies expected this week, early starters could have advantage because of rain/moisture shortage
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, SG: Approach, SG: Tee to Green, Birdie or Better%, SG: Putting (Poa/Bentgrass) Par 5s Gained (550-600), Proximity from 75-150 yards

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Jon Rahm (DK $12,100) – Rahm is the best and most expensive golfer in the field, a historic 3-1 favorite to win, the top golfer in my model, and a must-own DFS play this week. When I really like a player to run away with a tournament despite him being the obvious chalk, my goal is to double the field’s projected PGA DFS ownership. So I’ll probably come in around 50% or more with my Rahmbo exposure this week.

Hideki Matsuyama (DK $11,000) – I may not have big shares of Matsuyama (second overall on my model) this week, simply because it’ll be hard to fit both him and Rahm without going stars-and-scrubs, but he’ll be a staple of my non-Rahm lineups and should fare well based on his elite performance in the focus stat categories (SG: APP, Bob%, Par 5s: 550-600).

Also consider: Webb Simpson, Will Zalatoris, Kevin Na (GPP)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Sebastian Munoz (DK $9,200) – I’m intrigued by the excellent SG: OTT numbers for Munoz, both here at Silverado and over his past 36 rounds, and getting it in good position off the tee should yield some good scoring opportunities for the Colombian pro and PGS DFS standout. He’s played steady golf in his last four tournaments and will be a staple of my builds in all formats.

Cameron Champ (DK $9,000) – Champ won here in 2019 after missing the cut in 2017 and finishing T25 in 2018. It’s a venue he likes and for that reason we can throw out the poor SG:APP rating (112th in the field over his past 36 rounds) a bit. He ranks third in SG: OTT (and first in the field in that category at this venue) and should have an easy time with these par 5s.

Charley Hoffman (DK 8,800) – Hoffman could be a great play this week, as he’s third overall on my mixed model despite a spotty course history. We’ve seen Hoffman surprise before, and he’s almost never popular even when he’s striking it well. I’d probably limit my ownership in this event to GPPs, but there’s plenty of birdie-making upside with the Hoff.

Emiliano Grillo (DK $8,900) – Grillo makes a lot of sense as a high-upside, somewhat risky PGA DFS play considering how badly his putter can let him down. He’s No. 1 overall in the field in SG:APP over his last 36 rounds and fifth overall in my mixed model. I’ll be overweight with my exposure in GPPs.

Maverick McNealy (DK $8,600) – Both Sia and I are fans of how McNealy can make birdies in bunches, and while the ball-striking numbers – both recently and on this golf course – have been lacking, this could be the year he breaks through at Silverado with a Top 15 finish. He’s No. 21 overall in my mixed model, even accounting for the relatively poor course history.

Doug Ghim (DK $7,900) – Ghim debuted here last season with a T14, and he’s certainly got the game to play well at Silverado again. He pounds it off the tee and is eighth overall in my mixed model. While he does have some accuracy issues and is far from the tour’s best putter, he’s one of my favorite PGA DFS GPP plays this week.

Also consider: Harold Varner (Cash), Chez Reavie (Cash), Phil Mickelson (GPP), Mito Pereira, Taylor Moore (GPP), Adam Hadwin (GPP), Sepp Straka, Brian Stuard, Harry Higgs (GPP)

Value Golfers (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Patton Kizzire (DK $7,500) – Kizzire is another hit-or-miss PGA DFS GPP play with a dynamic game and erratic tee ball game. He’s long enough that he can occasionally hit less-than-driver and still be fine, but he’s had some difficulty  at Silverado in his last three tries (all MCs) after finishing second to Brendan Steele in 2016. I’ll have some exposure in large-field GPPs, but I don’t think I can take the plunge in single-entry or cash.

Ryan Moore (DK $7,500) – I’d normally be pretty averse to Ryan Moore because he’s burned me a few times before, but he’s had some solid finishes at Silverado (including a T2 in 2018) and could be a decent low-owned play in GPPs. He’s No. 10 overall in my mixed model and his numbers across this week’s focus stats don’t show any glaring weaknesses.

Brendan Steele (DK $7,400) – Steele won this event two years in a row (2016-17) and will likely be more popular than usual because of it. But he’s a consistent player who hits it straight off the tee, thrives in the California venues and doesn’t miss cuts here (seven in a row).

Adam Schenk (DK $7,300) – This is where things start to get a little bit risky, so I’d steer clear of Schenk and the next few guys in cash games. He’s another player that Sia and I both like this week, and he ranks 16th on my model behind some decent putting and birdie numbers. Hitting good drives at this venue has historically ben a struggle, but his SG:OTT numbers have been better lately and he’s got a T14 to his credit here in 2018.

Hank Lebioda (DK $7,100) – Hammerin’ Hank comes in at No. 23 in my model and is a huge risk since he’s missed the cut twice in three attempts at Silverado. But I’m willing to give him a shot in a few GPPs based on his ability to make birdies and the T44 he notched here in 2019.

Luke List (DK $7,100) – Sia wrote up newcomer Chad Ramey (and not Lebioda or List – two guys he normally loves), so I’ll take up the mantle and tout them. List can really stink it up with his putter, but he’s No. 11 on my model this week and seems to have a decent handle on this venue, with a T4 in 2018 and two other Top 40s in previous appearances. His ball-striking and Par 5 dominance are quite attractive in this field.

Chesson Hadley (DK $7,000) – He can’t be the Bargain Blowout Baby (BBB) again because he’s not under $7K, but he’s exactly the type of golfer we target in GPPs for his upside when he’s hitting it good off the tee, a huge advantage on this course, where he’s played very well (T14, T23, T87, T3 in his last four tries at Silverado).

Cameron Percy (DK $6,800) – Percy has a T23 and T7 in his last two starts in Napa and just eats up the par 5s here. He’s going to be a huge piece of my stars-and-scrubs builds and could end up being my BBB if he lands under 5% ownership.

More value golfers to consider: Dylan Frittelli, Lanto Griffin, Doc Redman, Hudson Swafford, Adam Svensson, Russell Knox (GPP), Patrick Rodgers, Bo Hoag, Sam Ryder, Kyle Stanley, Adam Long (GPP)

Longshot Punts (DK $6,500 and under):

Mark Hubbard (DK $6,500) – Hubbard is No. 25 in my model and probably the best PGA DFS golfer you can roster at $6,500 or under this week based on his BoB% and putting numbers, when combined with  relatively decent ball-striking. His SG: OTT numbers are his biggest weakness, but at this price there’s always a weakness.

Danny Lee (DK $6,400) – I don’t have a ton of interest in the punts this week, but Lee is worth a look in large-field GPPS and in your “scrubs” pieces based on decent overall numbers and some excellent finishes here (T10 in 2018). Don’t go overboard with your exposure to this risky but dynamic player.

Paul Barjon (DK $6,200) – Barjon is popping at No. 22 in my mixed model – the only golfer under $6,500 in my top 25. The biggest knock is his lack of PGA Tour experience and course history at this venue, where he’s making his debut. But I like PGA DFS guys who hit it solid off the tee and have putters that come alive and make birdies.

Additional GPP punts: Michael Gligic, Dylan Wu, Beau Hossler, Curtis Thompson

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PGA DFS Picks: John Deere Classic

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

This edition of PGA DFS picks should help you dominate your contests at the John Deere Classic – even if some of the world’s best golfers are overseas!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Full but weak field of 156 golfers
  • 36-hole Cut: Top 65 and ties play the weekend
    • No 2020 tourney; Defending (2019) champion: Dylan Fritelli (-21)
    • The course: TPC Deere Run (Silvis, IL) – D.A. Weibring design
    • 7,268 yards, Par 71
    • Bentgrass/Poa Greens
    • Shotmaker’s course emphasizes driving accuracy , wedge play and putting
    • Plenty of birdies available at TPC Deere run
  • Focus Stat Categories: SG: Approach, Birdie or Better %. SG: Off the Tee, Opportunities Gained, SG: Putting (Bentgrass), Proximity (125-150), Driving Accuracy

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Daniel Berger (DK $11,100) – He’s the best golfer in the field and the only guy above $11K, so expectations are high – but Berger has played decent golf this year (T7 at the U.S. Open, T3 at the birdie-fest Byron Nelson). Scores could get as low as -20 this year and we’ll need birdie machines like Berger in our builds.

Sungjae Im (DK $10,700) – Im was making birdies last week and his game seems to perfectly fit this layout. He was T26 last year in his John Deere debut but I really think he’s a near lock for a Top 15 this week. I’m not a guy who uses him a lot in PGA DFS, but this is the right week to give him a shot.

Brian Harman ($10,400) – The lefty has been inside the Top 20 in seven of his last eight tournaments – or every time he’s made the cut in that stretch (MC at PGA Championship). Harman won at TPC Deere Run in 2014, and he’s 5-for-7 overall at this venue with four Top 25 finishes.

Russell Henley (DK $9,900) – Henley should have no trouble this week in Illinois and he’s my pick to win even though Harman and Berger are a little more popular. He finished solo second in 2019 and comes in under the $10K price tag threshold in PGA DFS.

Also consider: Cam Davis, Kevin Streelman, Kevin Na (GPP)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Si Woo Kim (DK $9,100) – If Si Woo is finding fairways this week we could see him showing off some of his “go-low” abilities. I could see him firing an opening round 62 and taking the early lead, so keep him in mind for first round leader.

Seamus Power (DK $9,000) – Power is coming off a solid putting week and he’s 3-for-3 at the John Deere Classic with two top 25s. The price is a little bit higher than we’re used to, but in this field he’s easily one of the better talents, especially on the greens.

Patton Kizzire (DK $8,900) – He’s a GPP pick only for the reasons Sia laid out in his Initial Picks article – mainly his ability to rack up birdies and eagles when he’s finding fairways. He and Si Woo are both risk-reward plays on a course that is relatively easy to tackle.

Maverick McNealy (DK $8,800) – McNealy fits the bill as a birdie-maker with incredible upside, and this could be the year he breaks through at the John Deere (T44 in 2018). There’s always the chance he fades over the weekend and finishes outside the Top 15, but I like his chances of posting a Top 10 this week.

Zach Johnson (DK $8,500) – ZJ has a glorious history at the JDC, with four top 5 finishes in his past seven trips and a win way back in 2012. His form leaves a bit to be desired, but he’s less of a risk in PGA DFS here at a venue he loves.

Doc Redman (DK $8,200) – Redman is another risky golfer who feels like feast or famine in DFS. Last week he was in my player pool and missed the cut, so we’ll go right back to the well and hope his putter does its job this week.

Dylan Frittelli (DK $7,800) – When Frittelli won here in 2019, he played the weekend bogey-free 65-64 to win by two strokes. He’s struggled more on courses where you can make big scores, so I expect a big rebound this week (his form has not been great) and a possible Top 15.

Also consider: Alex Noren, Hank Lebioda (GPP), Ryan Moore, Beau Hossler, Pat Perez, Richy Werenski

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Chez Reavie (DK $7,500) – We shouldn’t spend a ton of time in the lower $7K range this week, because there’s an easy path to avoiding most of these riskier golfers, but we have to consider Reavie, who checks all the boxes this week at this venue. It’s always about timing with Reavie, and even though he missed the cut last week his overall form has been good.

Henrik Norlander (DK $7,300) – Norlander seems to make a lot of sense for TPC Deere Run, because he’s not very long, but he’s accurate off the tee and solid T2G. There’s always risk with the guy, but I like the price and his ability to fare well in this weaker field.

Ryan Armour (DK $7,100) – Sia and Joel gave him the vote of confidence in the Breakdown and while he hasn’t had much success at this venue yet, we’ve seen plenty of golfers go from missing the cut (both in the week before and the year before) to contending.

Satoshi Kodaira (DK $7,000) – Throw out last week’s stumble and the form is staggering. He’s essentially a $8K golfer priced at $7K, so I’m buying in all formats, including single entry. The guy loves Bentgrass and he’s got Top 10 upside.

Adam Schenk (DK $6,900) – Schenk seems priced a little low for his upside as well, and Sia likes his 100-1 longshot status as an outright bet. There’s a few guys in the “last piece for your GPP” range under $7K here, and he’s probably the best of them.

John Huh (DK $6,800) – Huh gets the nod for his course history and the fact that he’ll be off most people’s radar. But in a weak field like this, it’s not bad time to bet on a resurgence, especially on Bentgrass.

Bronson Burgoon (DK $6,700) – I often play Burgoon on birdie fest courses, and we get a nice discount in a weak field here despite a T17 at the last real birdie fest he played in – the AT&T Byron Nelson. You hope for a made cut and two super low rounds, which he can do.

More value golfers to consider: Patrick Rodgers, Scott Stallings, Vaughn Taylor, Tyler Duncan, Roger Sloan, Sam Ryder, Ben Martin (GPP), Andrew Landry (GPP), Scott Brown (GPP), Wes Roach (GPP)

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Kristoffer Ventura (DK $6,400) – I’ll keep using him in this price range because of his putting ability, and this sorter course should give him more of a chance than the longer tracks.

Michael Kim (DK $6,100) – He’s a former winner here and he loves both the venue and the putting surface. He’s missed a lot of cuts but he’s the best $6,100 golfer I see down here. He’s worth using in one out of 20 GPPs.

Additional GPP punts: Adam Long, Bill Haas, Bo Van Pelt, Chase Seiffert, Josh Teator, Brian Gay

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PGA DFS Picks: Rocket Mortgage Classic

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

The Win Daily team has content galore this week, including this edition of PGA DFS picks to help you dominate your contests at the Rocket Mortgage Classic!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Full, watered-down field of 150+ golfers
  • 36-hole Cut: Top 65 and ties play the weekend
  • Defending champion: Bryson DeChambeau (-23)
  • The course: Detroit Golf Club (Detroit, MI) – Donald Ross design
    • 7,370 yards, Par 72 – Detroit
    • Bentgrass/Poa Greens
    • Four par 5s will give us lots of scoring, and it should be another birdie-fest
    • Approaches will be shorter; 175-225 long iron shots shouldn’t be tested too much
    • Bombers (on a driver-heavy course) and putters (who handle Poa) fare well here
    • Players successful on Ross designs (Pinehurst No. 2, Plainview, East Lake and Sedgefield) are worth a look this week
  • Thursday PM/Friday AM could have slight weather/conditions advantage
  • Focus Stat Categories: SG: Approach, SG: Tee to Green, SG: Off the Tee, Birdie or Better %. SG: Putting (Bentgrass/Poa), Performance on Donald Ross courses

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Bryson DeChambeau (DK $11,400) – He’s the defending champion, largely on the performance of his putter, so we must consider Bryson this week, especially in cash games. And despite some poor course management choices and subsequent meltdowns, he’s still made 10 straight cut and should be in the conversation come Sunday.

Webb Simpson (DK $10,600) – Given the fact that he’s missed two cuts in his last five tourneys, we can’t say Simpson’s form is great, but he does have a couple Top 15s in there (T12 at the Masters and T9 at the RBC Heritage). Strangely enough, three of the last four appearances he’s made have been at majors. That tells me he likes playing here, and his T8 last year in Detroit piques my interest even more.

Will Zalatoris (DK $10,000) – Willie Z used to make a lot of hay on courses like this on the Korn Ferry Tour, even if his PGA identity has been more of a “tough course” grinder. He’s not cheap this week, but he’s clearly among the top five in the talent category that’s heading to Detroit. I’m most worried about his putting, so I’ll limit my ownership to GPPs.

Jason Kokrak (DK $9,500) – Kokrak should be popular even at this elevated price, but his game should translate well to this course, where he finished T29 in 2019 before his career added the maiden victory and follow-up win at the 2021 Charles Schwab, played at Colonial. This venue comps well to that course, he’s number one on Sia’s model, and I’ll be overweight on the field regardless of ownership.

Also consider: Patrick Reed, Hideki Matsuyama

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Sungjae Im (DK $9,300) – He’s off the DFS radar, for the most part, and that’s when I like to give him a shot in GPPs. But the price is entirely too much for cash game builds and he may fare well as a sneaky Top 10 bet.

Matthew Wolff (DK $9,100) – Again – I can’t trust Wolff in cash games and will steer clear in single-entry, but the leverage and upside in large field GPPs should warrant some exposure to this dynamic but risky play. Joel likes him in GPPs and that’s enough for me.

Kevin Kisner (DK $8,500) – Kisner finished third last year and his coming off a T5 at the Travelers, an event where he wasn’t much part of the DFS conversation in the leadup. Aside from that, he hasn’t been very successful in 2021, though the courses have played tough and he prefers venues like this where he can make some birdies.

Max Homa (DK $8,400) – Homa – who is a combined +28 in his last four missed cuts – is not getting the love he deserves this week because of the form, even if he’s been a popular topic in the WinDaily golf writers’ message thread. I know that Isaiah is intrigued by Homa this week and I’m on board too.

Garrick Higgo (DK $8,300) – I’m interested in seeing what Higgo can do at a birdie fest considering he shot 66-63-64-64 in his win at the Canary Islands Championship in May on the EURO tour. Higgo is long, he’s a good putter, and he’s a bargain at this price – so he really stood out to me in this range – just like he did for Sia in his Initial Picks.

Doc Redman (DK $7,900) – Redman has a T21 here in 2020 and notched a solo second in 2019, so he’s clearly a course horse. Normally considered a volatile performer and high-risk/big-reward type of play, Redman has made five straight cuts and could be trending up toward another Top 10.

Maverick McNealy (DK $7,700) – I love McNealy and his ability to make birdies in bunches, and his T8 last season in Detroit is encouraging for another Top 20 finish. He finished T4 at the last birdie-forward event (RBC Heritage), and when he goes low, he goes really low. A fine play in all formats and one of favorites for “low round” bets.

Sepp Straka (DK $7,700) – I missed out on Straka and his T10 last week and will probably never recover from that – it’s like how I’ll feel if I fade Matthew Fitzpatrick the week of his first PGA Tour win. I’ll have some minimal shares just so I don’t have that feeling again.

Also consider: Rickie Fowler (GPP), Gary Woodland, Cameron Tringale, Si Woo Kim (GPP), Lucas Glover (GPP), Harold Varner, Kyle Stanley, Lanto Griffin

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Adam Hadwin (DK $7,500) – Hadwin is solid T2G, and while I have a hard time seeing him post crazy low scores and reaching the -20 that might be necessary to win, he’s got the chops to finish in the Top 20.

Mark Hubbard (DK $7,300) – Don’t look now, but Hubbard has made five straight cuts and is playing really good golf, his T13 last week being his best finish since his T12 at last year’s Rocket Mortgage Classic. He’s still a little risky for cash games, but he’s fine for GPPs and could be a bargain single-entry if you’re willing to assume a little extra risk.

Brian Stuard (DK $7,000) – Stuard is a couple years removed form his T5 finish here in what was a very weak field, but he notched a T30 in 2020 in Detroit as well and is among the best bargains in this $7K range for his brilliant putting and ability to make birdies in bunches.

Nate Lashley (DK $6,900) – Lashley is a former Rocket Mortgage champion (he won in 2019) but the form is somewhat concerning. I’ll limit my exposure to low-cost, large-field GPPs. He’s easy to root for and should make the cut this week.

Patrick Rodgers (DK $6,900) – If Rodgers could get in the habit of putting together four rounds of his A game, he’d be one of the best golfers on tour, but his one-day brilliance is usually bracketed by a stinker or two. He’s in the conversation for first-day leader, but I’ll steer clear in most formats.

Henrik Norlander (DK $6,800) – Norlander has made three cuts in his last five tournaments, which for him is a hot streak. I’m banking on another solid finish this week and he makes sense for the last piece in some GPP lineups.

More value golfers to consider: Seamus Power, Pat Perez (GPP), Danny Willett, Tom Lewis, Mackenzie Hughes, Beau Hossler, Scott Piercy, Richy Werenski, Cameron Champ (GPP), Danny Lee (GPP)

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Adam Schenk (DK $6,500) – I won’t be dabbling too much in the $6,500 and under range this week, but Schenk checks a few boxes and could spike a Top 35 finish if he manages to make the cut – which he’s done in seven of his last 10 events.

Kristoffer Ventura (DK $6,200) – Ventura is a hard nut to crack, because the ball-striking falls well behind the putter and there’s usually something in the course history I like (T21 here in 2020). This course sets up much better for him, and if the putter does its thing he could finally notch a Top 25, which he hasn’t done in a normal PGA tour event sine his T6 at Sanderson Farms.

Additional GPP punts: Jimmy Walker, J.J. Spaun, Ted Potter, Austin Cook

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PGA DFS Picks: 2021 Travelers Championship

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

We’re giving you some top PGA DFS picks and looking for green screens at the Travelers Championship at TPC River Highlands!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Full, deep field of 156 golfers
  • 36-hole Cut: Top 65 and ties play the weekend
  • Defending champion: Dustin Johnson (19 over Kevin Streelman’s -18)
  • The course: TPC River Highlands (Cromwell, CT)
    • 6,841 yards, Par 70 – Old 1928 design reworked by Pete Dye in 1982
    • Varied types of holes on a short course that can produce low scoring (site of Jim Furyk’s 58 in 2016)
    • Small Bentgrass/Poa Greens
    • Just two par 5s, but one is short and yields lots of birdies and eagles; and two driveable par 4s around 300 yards
    • Experience with Pete Dye layouts can help, and there’s plenty of course history at TPC River Highlands
    • Distance not an issue here as scoring clubs more important
  • Focus Stat Categories: SG: Approach, Par 4s: 400-450, Opportunities Gained, SG: OTT, SG: Tee to Green, SG: Putting (Bentgrass and Poa), SG: Around the Green, Birdie or Better %

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Dustin Johnson (DK $11,400) – DJ’s game doesn’t look too bad heading into the Travelers, where he’s the defending champ and one of the betting favorites at 12-1. Last year’s title was helped tremendously by a second round 64 and a scorching-hot 61 on Saturday, but it took him a bit to warm up and he closed the deal with a solid 67 on Sunday. That’s just how he could win again this year – with his talent shining through in a couple of low rounds and solid ball-striking carrying him through when his mojo ain’t working.

Patrick Cantlay (DK $10,400) – His projected ownership will probably be the highest in this tier for the consistency he’s shown in PGA DFS events, excluding the poor stretch of MCs from the Players to the Wells Fargo during the spring. Believe it or not, Cantlay is actually the current FedExCup points leader with three top 15s at the Travelers since 2018. I won’t have as many shares as I will of DJ, but I feel like some exposure is warranted.

Paul Casey (DK $9,900) – Casey is my favorite play under $10K and has a great course history at TPC River Highlands, where he’s 6-for-6 with four top five finishes. He also finished among the top 10 in his last three starts (EURO and PGA combined) and is coming off a very respectable T7 at the U.S. Open. Sia is on board and so is Stix, so I’m buying some Casey this week and hoping for another Top 10 finish.

Scottie Scheffler (DK $9,600) – Scheffler missed the cut in his Travelers debut last year, but he was amid a bad stretch of golf during the beginning of the spectator-free COVID tournaments. An opening round 70 sealed his fate, but he’s playing solid golf right now (T7 at the U.S. Open) and checks all the boxes this week.

Also consider: Bryson DeChambeau, Brooks Koepka (GPP), Patrick Reed

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Kevin Streelman (DK $9,400) – He’s a solid play in all formats, and he’s probably worth using in single-entry builds for his galling consistency. Nick talked a little bit in The Breakdown about how he’s a near-lock for the Top 40 every week and we just saw him play some marvelous golf at the U.S. Open. “Streels” is one of those guys who just seems to show up every week.

Tony Finau (DK $9,200) – The jury is still out on when we’ll see Finau get his next win, but the price seems fair this week for a guy who just needs the putter to show up to realize his Top 10 upside. He’s missed his last two cuts here but had a T25 and T17 in 2016 and 2017. I’d steer clear in cash games, but he’s worth of consideration for GPPs.

Bubba Watson (DK $8,900) – He’s very popular this week and seems to be everywhere in the “experts” picks on plenty of sites, but he’s not nearly as safe a play as that would dictate. It’s been a while since I’ve seen him play his true “A” game, and the birdie runs are coming less frequently than a few years ago, when he won this tournament in 2018. I’ll have minimal exposure, and he’s not in my player pool for single-entry or cash games.

Brian Harman (DK $8,800) – Harman typically plays about a half-stroke better on Dye courses, and he’s an accurate driver who just closed out a solid week with a one-over 72 on Sunday at the U.S. Open, finishing T19. He’s got a couple of Top 10 finishes at the Travelers in his last three tries (MC in the tumultuous 2020) and has now placed among the top 20 in seven of eight starts going back to his T3 at the Players.

Si Woo Kim (DK $8,500) –Another “Dye desirable,” Kim has made three of his last four cuts at the Travelers with a T11 in 2020 and solid finishes in 2016 and 2018. His form isn’t bad either, with a T9 at the Memorial and T40 last week at a grueling U.S. Open on a course that didn’t; necessarily fit his strengths. He’s a fine GPP play this week.

Keegan Bradley (DK $7,900) – Bradley likes Pete Dye courses and this is the first of two “home games” for the underpriced golfer, who has had a really strong 2021. He finished T2 in 2019 and makes sense for all kinds of builds this week.

Francesco Molinari, (DK $7,700) – Molinari is rounding into form and while he doesn’t play a lot of events, he always has a shot at winning because he can get ridiculously hot with the putter. I think the T13 finish at the U.S. Open should give him the confidence necessary to capitalize on his opportunities this week and make a splash on the weekend.

Doc Redman (DK $7,600) – After a stretch of spotty play earlier this season, Redman has turned in some solid performances in recent weeks, posting a T9 at the AT&T Byron Nelson and a T2 at the Palmetto Championship at Congaree. He also debuted here last season with a T11 and he’s usually a decent leverage play that’s a little off-the-radar.

Also consider: Abraham Ancer (GPP), Joaquin Niemann, Cameron Smith (GPP), Harris English, Sam Burns (GPP), Max Homa (GPP), Jason Day (GPP)

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Lanto Griffin (DK $7,400) – Griffin’s ball-striking was good at the U.S. Open and while he didn’t miss the cut, I was hoping for a better finish than T35. There’s a bunch of high-upside/high-risk golfers in this price range, and Lanto fits the bill for GPPs and as a 100-1 longshot to win.

Rickie Fowler (DK $7,300) – I’m a huge Fowler fan and the disappointment of missing the U.S. Open this year has to be weighing on the veteran golfer. Rickie’s game has had its ups and downs but has shown improvement over his last two events. There’s not much recent history at the Travelers to go form, but he had a T13 in 2014, closing with a 64 on Sunday. A return to New England and a course that fits his game could be just what he needs as he and Allison Stokke await the birth of their first child.

Mackenzie Hughes (DK $7,100) – He might get chalky after three days of brilliance at the U.S. Open (but not a fourth), because the price is very nice. The Canadian is 4-for-4 at the Travelers with an impressive scoring average (68.19) and a T3 last year. He’s in play for all formats.

Carlos Ortiz (DK $7,100) – If you need a pivot from Hughes with just as much upside but a lot more risk, look no further than Ortiz. He’s missed the cut here in his last two Travelers appearances but finished T17 in 2016 and has the chops to post some low scores here.

Chez Reavie (DK $7,000) – The $7K range is loaded with players who we’d like to play when they’re in good form, and Reavie makes for a wonderful GPP play this week as he’s coming off a T14 at the Palmetto and T40 at the U.S. Open. Reavie doesn’t typically play well on Dye courses, but we an make an exception this week because it’s a good spot.

Kyle Stanley (DK $7,000) – Stanley isn’t a very good putter, but his iron play is consistently strong and he’s once again underpriced for what he offers in PGA DFS. His course history is good and he’s a real bargain this week given his Top 20 upside.

Adam Long (DK $6,800) – Long has finished T20-T26 in his last two tournaments and is a solid ball-striker who’s accurate off the tee – an important factor in creating opportunities here. If he can keep form having the one blowup round that usually mars his chances, he’ll be in good shape for the weekend.

More value golfers to consider: Kevin Na (GPP), Aaron Wise, Brendan Steele (GPP), Stewart Cink, Patton Kizzire (GPP), Will Gordon (GPP), Ryan Moore (GPP), Scott Stallings (GPP), Henrik Norlander (GPP), Hank Lebioda (GPP), Wyndham Clark (GPP), Austin Eckroat (GPP)

Longshot Punts (DK $6,500 and under):

Brian Stuard (DK $6,400) – A lot of folks will look to Satoshi Kodaira and the very consistent Vincent Whaley, but I like Stuard’s chances of rebounding after missed cuts at the Palmetto and U.S. Open. He has an extensive course history with spotty results, but something clicked last year en route to a T20, a finish I think he could duplicate here in 2021.

Tyler Duncan (DK $6,300) – He’s a total longshot (and hasn’t posted a Top 10 since he won the RSM in 2019), but he’s accurate off the tee and has made three straight cuts at this event. If you need a final piece and only have $6,300 to spend, he’s worth throwing in one or two out of 20 GPPs.

Additional GPP punts: Satoshi Kodaira, Tom Lewis, Vincent Whaley

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PGA DFS Picks: Charles Schwab Challenge

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

The next event for PGA DFS takes us to “Hogan’s Alley” for the Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial Country Club – where we’re giving you the winning picks!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Invitational field of 121 golfers
  • 36-hole Cut: Top 65 and ties play the weekend
  • PGA Tour event since 1946
  • The course: Colonial Country Club (Fort Worth, TX)
    • Par 70: 7,209 yards – tight fairways with trees blocking approaches in spots
    • Just two par 5s, both scoring holes despite the longer playing up to 635 yards
    • Smaller Bentgrass greens
    • Accuracy with irons and solid putting a must to win
    • Texas weather could play a factor but nothing ominous in current forecast
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, SG: Around the Green, Bogey Avoidance, SG: Putting (Bentgrass), SG: Off the Tee, Par 4 efficiency: (350-450)

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Jordan Spieth (DK $11,200) – A Texas kid born in the Dallas-Fort Worth golf mecca, Spieth is a former winner here (2016), has never missed a cut at Colonial, and has a host of Top 10s, even in recent years when his game has struggled to find some consistency. With his putter always in form and his ball-striking ranking much better in 2021, Spieth can’t be avoided when discussing the favorites this week.

Justin Thomas (DK $10,300) – JT makes for a great GPP play after a missed cut at the PGA Championship, but he’s still a bit risky given his spotty play recently. PGA DFS can be very frustrating when you’re on a guy (and an expensive guy to boot) and he breaks your heart by missing out on the weekend points and killing your lineup. But there’s nothing worse than fading that same guy the next week and watching him win. For that reason, it’s important to run it back one in a while and I’ll be doing that with JT at Colonial.

Collin Morikawa (DK $10,500) – Morikawa checks all the boxes this week except the putting stats, but the greens are small enough that if he’s doing his thing with his irons he should be close enough to make some putts. One of the best ball strikers in the world, Morikawa hits a smooth fade, doesn’t need length off the tee to win here and that’s a huge plus in giving him the nod over the others in this elite range. Sia, Joel and Nick are all on board, so I feel comfortable using him in my single-entry lineup and GPP core.

Abraham Ancer (DK $9,700) – Ancer has three consecutive Top 10s and while he will be chalky as hell, he’s hard for me to get away from in my builds. I’ll be using him in all formats, and he’ll be a core play for me in stars and scrubs lineups as well. If his putter goes cold he could have problems justifying this price, but he’s been so good with his irons he’s almost always in play.

Also consider: Patrick Reed, Will Zalatoris, Scottie Scheffler (GPP)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Corey Conners (DK $9,400) – It may still be wise to steer clear of Conners in GPPs until we see more Top 10 finishes, but he’s a cutmaker who’s 3-for-3 at Colonial and had a T8 in his 2018 debut at this venue. Again – Conners is mostly a cash game play with projected ownership creeping up.

Sungjae Im (DK $9,100) – Im missed the cut here in his 2019 Charles Schwab debut but improved to a T10 (with Spieth and Thomas) in 2020. We know he doesn’t tire easily, so the four grueling rounds he played steadily last week (70-72-73-73) don’t get me off him. The price is fine, and he won’t see massively high ownership.

Justin Rose (DK $8,900) –Maybe Rose will be inspired by Phil’s epic win at Kiawah Island last week, and we know the former winner at Colonial can play elite golf when he’s striking it well. Rose makes for a sneaky GPP play in a week where he won’t be highly owned.

Ryan Palmer (DK $8,600) –Palmer missed the cut last week andhas a vested interest in playing well at his home course. He loves the place, knows the greens really well, wants desperately to win at the venue commonly known as “Hogan’s Alley” and should stand out as a solid GPP play with his history of mixing MCs with Top 10s here.

Cameron Tringale (DK $8,100) – Let’s start with the bad. During round 2 last week, Tringale was -1 when he stepped on the No. 14 tee (he started on the back) and was +11 just four holes later. Then a little alligator walked across the fairway in front of him. That horrific stretch aside, Tringale played well and has the chops to rebound with a soldi finish this week.

Brian Harman (DK $8,000) – Harman looks like more of a cash game play this week, as he’s projected to be very popular (>25%). I won’t be using him too much more than 10-15% in my 20 max builds, but there’s a case to be made for using him and his five straight made cuts at Colonial.

Brandt Snedeker (DK $7,900) – Mr. Pop Stroke is one of the craftiest putters on tour, and the relatively poor ball striking and lack of length off the tee shouldn’t hurt him too much here. Sneds is super risky and shouldn’t be used in cash games but makes sense for large-field GPPs.

Chris Kirk (DK $7,600) – He’s missed two straight cuts, but people haven’t forgotten how good of a golfer he’s been in 2021, because he’s very popular again. I’ll throw out his performance last week because of the course difficulty, and trust he got an early start on getting his T2G and putting under control heading into an event where he’s had two Top 15s in his last four tries.

Also consider: Joaquin Niemann, Gary Woodland (GPP), Jason Kokrak (GPP), Charley Hoffman (Cash), Kevin Na (GPP), Kevin Streelman, Emiliano Grillo (GPP)

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Peter Uihlein (DK $7,500) – I’m not super excited about the $7-8K price range this week, and the fact that Uihlein is popping so much for his form could mean he breaks my heart this week. I don’t normally play him, but it’s his fourth appearance here and he has top 15s in his last two tries and is playing some of the best golf right now.

Patton Kizzire (DK $7,400) – He’s an awesome putter and his best finishes and have come in Texas. I’m not super excited about him this week because if he’s missing fairways there could be problems, but I think he can hit less-than-driver and be long enough to be in fine shape to contend. Not a cash game play, but usable in GPPs.

Harold Varner III (DK $7,400) – Another GPP extraordinaire who mixes missed cuts with solid finishes, Varner had a T2 at the RBC Heritage and T49 last week. He also finished T19 at the Honda Classic, which is similar in the focus stats that tend to drive success here.

Russell Knox, (DK $7,300) – Sia loves him for first-round leader, and it’s very tempting to consider him for single-entry this week given the price point and solid performances over his last three events (T21-T18-T39), He finished T8 here in 2019 but we can throw out the MC in 2020 amid the uncertainty of golf’s fanless return at the time.

J.T. Poston (DK $6,900) – I liked him heading into last week but the course and some bad timing on Friday 78 got the better of him. This week, he’s cheap and playing a venue where he’s 3-for-4 with a T10 last year and a T20 in 2018. GPP only.

Maverick McNealy (DK $6,900) – I use McNealy in GPPs once in a while and this seems like a good spot to go back to him. He’s 2-for-2 and while he’s a feast-or-famine type of golfer (he’s mixed in a solo second, a T4 and a T49 among six missed cuts in his last nine tournaments), this course seems to suit his strengths.

Patrick Rodgers (DK $6,700) – I wish Rodgers could put together four good rounds, because he’s got Top 25 upside. A third round 79 killed his chances at the Well Fargo, but he’s made his last two cuts after a poor April stretch. Worth a look in GPPs.

More value golfers to consider: Cameron Davis, Joel Dahmen, Talor Gooch, Doc Redman (GPP), C.T. Pan (GPP), Rory Sabbatini, Henrik Stenson, Mackenzie Hughes, Andrew Putnam

Longshot Punts (DK $6,500 and under):

Adam Long (DK $6,200) – I’ll only be using these guys in large-field GPP lineups that focus on stars and scrubs. If you’re trying to cram some combo of Spieth and/or JT with Morikawa/Ancer/Zalatoris in your first three spots, you’re forced to use the next three on guys like Long, who finished T19 here in 2019 and could post another Top 20.

Brian Gay (DK $6,100) – Gay has a T13 and T34 two of his last three appearances at Colonial, and I’m sure he was one of the first golfers my buddy Spades inserted into his lineup this week. The veteran golfer loves small greens (just like C.T. Pan does) and he’s in play as a longshot with Top 25 upside.

Mark Hubbard (DK $6,100) – Hubbard’s name also draws my attention because he an get rally hot with the putter, which is one of the things that could help guys break through this week. He’s much better for single-day lineups but I’m fine using him in 5% of GPPs hoping for a made cut and hot streak with that flat stick.

Additional GPP punts: Rafael Cabrera-Bello, Anirban Lahiri

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PGA DFS Picks: Arnold Palmer Invitational

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

This edition of PGA DFS picks takes us to iconic Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, giving us some key golfers to mix into our winning teams!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Strong invitational field of 123 golfers
  • Cut: Top 65 and ties after 36 holes
  • 2020 winner: Tyrrell Hatton (-4)
  • The course: Bay Hill Club and Lodge (Bay Hill, FL – Dick Wilson design w/Palmer renovations/layout tweaks)
    • Par 72 (7,466 yards)
    • Iconic and difficult venue with lots of water and bunkers in play
    • Played as the hardest course on the PGA Tour last year
    • Pressure golf at its most demanding
    • Bermuda greens and fairways
  • Wind could play a factor this week, rain expected Saturday
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, SG: Off the Tee, Proximity 200+, SG: Tee to Green, Par 5 scoring, SG: Putting (Bermuda), Opportunities Gained

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Rory McIlroy (DK $11,500) – We’re still waiting on the next big win from Rory and while his putting remains a concern, this is as fine a venue as any to take a shot. The track record at Bay Hill is nearly spotless (he’s the 2018 champ and has four straight top six finishes here) and the premium price reflects that. But if we want him on a few of our GPP teams there’s plenty of value golfers we can use to make it happen without it feeling like extreme stars and scrubs.

Viktor Hovland (DK $10,600) – Sia loves him this week and the only possible reason Hovland be considered a “risky” golfer in this top tier because it’s just his third appearance at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. While he’s made the cut both times, he posted a T40 and T42, so we’re expecting a big step forward. The difference between that Viktor and the new Viktor is his ability to drain big putts, and he’s second in my model after Sam Burns, who has yet to break through at Bay Hill as well. Hovland should have a better handle on this difficult layout now and I can’t bet against him – he’ll probably be on my short list for single-entry.

Tyrrell Hatton (DK $10,000) – Hatton won here last year and is 4-for-4 since 2017, when he finished T4 (with McIlroy). He’s showing up in the top five in my models (tweaked for recent form (24 rounds) and the last 75 rounds and is a solid play in all formats. He’s first in the Proximity 200+ yards stats which we know is a huge factor on this beast of a golf course.

Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $9,800) – There’s going to be a lot of sticker shock when folks see the price this week compared to the Genesis, and even last week when he was just $8,500. He’s an excellent play on a tough golf course where he’s had consecutive Top 10 finishes (including a second place finish in 2019). He could get popular and we’ll just have to watch the projected ownership percentages to see how much we’ll need in GPPs.

Also consider: Bryson DeChambeau (GPP), Patrick Reed, Sungjae Im

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Francesco Molinari ($8,700) – The model isn’t in love with him this week because it includes a stretch of rustiness from the Italian. But Molinari has been on the right track recently and the course record here is brilliant, with a win in 2019 and a couple of top tens before that. He’s an option in smaller tournaments (as Joel pointed out in the breakdown video), but his popularity could make him a fade in larger GPPs.

Will Zalatoris (DK $8,600) – There may not be a golf course in the known universe that Zalatoris can’t handle, and despite the fact that this is his Bay Hill debut, the youngster has the chops to flourish where others struggle on this demanding layout. The ball-striking prowess is there, and If the putter can pick up a few strokes on the field, look out.

Max Homa (DK $8,500) – Homa finished T24 in his API debut last season, and his game has taken a big step forward since then – with more ball-striking consistency and dominance of Par 5s, where the scoring usually happens. I really like Homa again this week at a fairly priced $8,500 and I’m considering using him in my core GPP builds.

Sam Burns (DK $8,400) – Burns will undoubtedly be popular this week, but he’s first on my model given his excellent numbers over the past 24 rounds, and I’ll have a tough time getting away from him in all formats. The talent is there, it’s just a matter of how much he’s learned as he tackles this course for the fourth time after three lukewarm results (T49-T-54-T36).

Talor Gooch (DK $7,900) – Gooch may not be ready to contend for a win on Sunday, and neither the model nor his recent form scream “must play” this week. But he’s 2-for-2 at Bay Hill, so we can use him in both cash and GPP if we need a golfer in the $7,500-8,000 range.

Cameron Davis (DK $7,900) – Davis would be my favorite play under $8K if we had any kind of course history to go off, because he’s top five in my model and he can get it done off the tee and on the greens when his putter is rolling. The wind could blow this week, but he’s got an earlier time on Thursday.

Cameron Tringale (DK $7,700) – Tringale has been good lately but hasn’t played this event since 2016. He’s in my model’s top 20 and has excellent SG:APP and SG Par 5 numbers. He hasn’t missed a cut since the Bermuda Championship in late October, and while he might get popular, he’s good value at this price.

Also consider: Jordan Spieth (GPP), Paul Casey, Marc Leishman (GPP), Jason Kokrak, Kevin Na, Lanto Griffin, Charley Hoffman (GPP)

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Emiliano Grillo (DK $7,400) – Grillo’s ball-striking keeps him in the top 30 of my model, and he’s been trending as a “one week on, next week off” type of golfer with respect to his overall game. We know he struggles on Par 5s and with his putter, but his T11 finish in Puerto Rico (in windy conditions) is a step in the right direction. He hasn’t played here since 2018 but was T7 in 2017.

Luke List (DK $7,200) – He missed the cut at the Genesis Invitational and his ownership should remain pretty low this week despite an affinity for the venue (T17-T7-T10 in his last three appearances here) and decent play since the Sony Open. Like Grillo, List can struggle with the putter but he’s No 15 in my model and the SG: OTT and T2G numbers are elite. I’m considering him for my single entry GPPs.

Chris Kirk (DK $7,000) – I’m noticing a pattern with this price range: good ball striking, bad putting. Kirk fits that bill with more balance in his overall numbers and a a Top 30 ranking in my mode, just ahead of Doc Redman and Max Homa. If you need some value in building a GPP lineup, that’s not a bad trio to start with in large-field MMEs, as adding Cam Davis leaves you with more than $20K for your next two golfers.

Keegan Bradley (DK $7,000) – The recent form isn’t great, but we know that Bradley just tends to show up on the leaderboard out of the blue on venues that play to his strengths. Like the previous three golfers, he has some trouble with the flat stick, but he’s tops in the field in SG:APP over his last 24 rounds and ranks second T2G. If you need a cheap, off-the-wall GPP play to fill out your roster, look no further than the enigmatic Bradley, who’s 5-for-5 here and ranks eighth overall in my model.

Matthew NeSmith (DK $6,900) – NeSmith is popping on everybody’s models this week (he’s third overall on mine) and three straight finishes inside the Top 20 – combined with this low price – should make him extremely popular this week. One of the first column I read this week listed him as a “sleeper” pick, but that might not be the best way to describe a guy who’s approach 15% projected ownership. Still – he’s a decent value play this week despite missing the cut at his first Bay Hill appearance in 2020.

Harold Varner III (DK $6,800) – He hasn’t performed up to his capabilities on Par 5s recently like Matt Jones (definitely someone to consider this week), but he’s a solid off-the-radar play given his T2G game and high ranking in Opportunities Gained (eight in the field). Varner is in my model’s top 25 and while he’s just 2-for-4 at Bay Hill, I could easily see him in the Top 20 on Sunday.

More value golfers to consider: Si Woo Kim, Branden Grace (GPP), Matt Jones, Corey Conners, Henrik Norlander, Zach Johnson, Erik van Rooyen, Brendan Steele  (GPP), Sebastian Munoz (GPP), Chez Reavie, Doug Ghim, Lucas Glover

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Cameron Percy (DK $6,500) –There’s no course history to speak of, but Percy is No. 33 in my model and makes for a solid GPP play in this price range. The biggest question marks are his putter and lack of experience at Bay Hill.

Kyle Stanley (DK $6,500) – Like Varner, I’m a little concerned about his ability o take advantage of the Par 5s here, as he ranks way down at No. 111 in the field in that category. But the rest of the game is golden, and he’s actually No. 24 in my overall model.

Additional punts: Tom Hoge (GPP), Sepp Straka (GPP), Doc Redman (GPP), Mark Hubbard (GPP)

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PGA DFS Picks: The American Express

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the American Express and helping you find some winning teams!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Weaker, full field of 156 golfers (no Pro-Am this year)
  • Cut: 36 holes (instead of the venue’s usual 54), Top 65 and ties
  • 2020 winner: Andrew Landry (-25)
  • The courses: PGA West in Palm Springs, CA (TPC Stadium and Nicklaus Tournament)
    • Both Par 72 (7,100-7,300 yards)
    • Reachable Par 5s and plenty of scoring
    • Rough not too penal, some wind expected
    • Bermuda greens, lots of sand and water
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, Birdie or Better %, Opportunities Gained, SG: Putting (Bermuda), SG: Off the Tee, Fairways Gained, Bogey Avoidance

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Tony Finau (DK $10,500) – I’ve said many times that I’d never again roster Finau – but that’s an attitude antithetical to winning DFS play. The 31-year-old tour veteran ranks seventh in the field in BoB gained and 12th in SG:OTT. If you’re fading the Patricks (Reed and Cantlay) and don’t want to go near Brooks Koepka, Finau is a great guy to get behind in the top tier.

Sungjae Im (DK $9,900) – My model loves Im (second overall behind Russell Henley), and there’s no particular area where this hardworking tour grinder’s game suffers. While Henley’s had his struggles at this venue (1/4), Sungjae is 2-for-2 with a T10 and T12. He’s a fine play in all formats.

Matthew Wolff (DK $9,700) – It’ll be interesting to see how much cash game love Wolff gets this week, considering he missed the cut in his first try at PGA West last season, but there’s really no reason to fade him in GPPs. His talent and ability to record birdies in bunches makes him a top play.

Scottie Scheffler (DK $9,500) – Scheffler debuted at this tournament with a solo third place finish, he’s No. 15 on my model, and he’s even better than Finau in the aforementioned two categories (No. 3 in SG:OTT and No. 5 in BoB%) that are big strengths here. In a field without too many big names, Scheffler’s looms large.

Also consider: Patrick Cantlay, Brooks Koepka (GPP)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Kevin Na (DK $9.200) – Na isn’t the kind of golfer we like to rely on for consistency, but his track record at this event is impressive: 6/6 with two top 20s since 2014. Last week’s champ might see his ownership spike considerably from last week, but he makes for an affordable cash game option who I’ll mix into a few GPPs.

Abraham Ancer (DK $9.100) – Ancer likes the venue and despite a few putting hiccups and his inability to close out tournaments, the price makes plenty of sense for Accurate Abe. He’s placed better each of the times he’s teed it up in Palm Springs, and a breakthrough win is only a hot putter away.

Cameron Champ (DK 8,900) – I haven’t heard a ton of chatter about Champ in a while, and that means it might be time to get aboard; he’s a player with all the talent in the world to rip this course apart. Tops in the field in SG:OTT and 22nd in BoB% (you should be noticing a trend here), Champ just needs to keep it in the fairways and score well on the Par 3s.

Adam Long (DK $8,500) – Long missed the cut last year after winning this event as a rookie in the 2018-19 season, and he’s already notched four Top 15s in eight starts this season. He’s not among my favorites to win, but he’s a solid GPP play in this price range.

Patton Kizzire (DK $8,400) – Kizzire might be the best putter on tour right now, and his usual issues off the tee have been mitigated by his performance on the greens. Think of him as a poor man’s Na without the requisite success at PGA West, and a guy that should be low-owned in tournaments at this increased price.

Sam Burns (DK $8,300) – He hasn’t played much competitive golf lately but Burns has a T18 and T6 in his two appearances here, and both he and Ryan Moore (also making his 2020-21 season debut) make for excellent plays in the $8,000-$8,500 range.

Ryan Moore (DK $8,000) – Burns and Moore rank at No. 8 and No. 9 in my model, respectively, though they occupy different ends of the putting spectrum, with Moore’s flat stick lagging considerably. The slight discount on Moore could help make the decision in cash games, but they both make sense for GPPs.

Adam Hadwin (DK $8,000) – The ultimate course horse, Hadwin’s performance at PGA West is downright astounding, with four straight finishes among the Top 6 from 2016 to 2019. I’ve tried 100 percent Hadwin ownership before and it worked out badly, but I’m tempted to try it again considering his unusual affection for the TPC Stadium course and the fact that the only reason he didn’t play here last year was due to the birth of his first child.

Also consider: Rickie Fowler (GPP), Paul Casey, Gary Woodland, Erik Van Rooyen, Aaron Wise (GPP), Alex Noren

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Doc Redman (DK $7,500) – The luster has worn off a bit after his T61 in Houston and MC at the RSM Classic, so I feel comfortable enough to call Doc a “sleeper” pick this week. The final ownership percentages will tell the final story on how much I’ll be using, but he’s all the way up at third in my overall rankings this week.

Talor Gooch (DK $7,400) –Gooch has a top 5 here (2019) and two straight MCs at the RSM and Sony will keep his ownership down. What’s really bizarre is that he’s almost interchangeable in terms of model ranking (12th vs. 13th), past performance (both have a T4 in the past two seasons) and price point (same) with Sepp Straka.

Sepp Straka (DK $7,400) – What I said about Gooch goes for Sepp, right down to my infatuation with both for GPPs. I’ll be building a whole smattering of tournament lineups with either – or both – of these golfers, and hoping they can keep it together the first couple days and make the cut.

Keegan Bradley (DK $7,300) – Bradley seems like a one week on, one week off type of golfer, so I’m less concerned about his MC at the Sony Open than I am his Top 25 upside. Bradley always flies under the radar despite a solid approach game and excellent ball-striking off the tee.

Matthew NeSmith (DK $7,100) – He’s cheap, he can fire at flagsticks and we know he can score (-18 for a T8 at the Shriners in October). NeSmith may not be exciting, but he’s No. 33 in my model this week, he finished T17 in his debut here last season, and he may improve on that this year.

Andrew Landry (DK $7,000) – My model is not kind to Landry this year, but he’s the defending champ and I’ll work in some ownership in MMEs. Not only did he win here in 2020, but he lost in a playoff in this event in 2018, so there’s something about the place he digs.

Vaughn Taylor (DK $6,800) – I find it difficult to pin down exactly when to play Taylor, but he’s 3-for-4 here with a Top 10 in 2019 – and his price (along with a Top 25 last week at the Sony) makes him an interesting punt option.

More value golfers to consider: Lucas Glover, Charley Hoffman, Cameron Tringale, Tom Hoge, Russell Knox (GPP), Chex Reavie, John Huh, Henrik Norlander, Adam Schenk

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

John Augenstein (DK $6,500) – First-timers seem to fare well here, and Augenstein, playing in his pro debut this week, ranks at No. 53 in my model. He’s got the star power to make this price seem ridiculous in subsequent events. I’ll be overweight on the field and hoping for some Sunday airtime.

Chase Seiffert (DK $6,400) – Seiffert is actually playing with Augenstein, so he can relay stories of his T21 finish in his debut here in 2020 and maybe get those good vibes going again. Seiffert falls just behind Augie, Tom Hoge and Brice Garnett in my model at No. 56, so there’s plenty to like as a bargain bin value option.

Grayson Murray (DK $6,300) – He’s a course horse of the not-quite highest order (with Hadwin in a class by himself) because he’s notched three Top 15s here in his four attempts (MC in 2019). Don’t go overboard, but don’t completely forget about him either.

Additional punt options: Andrew Putnam, Will Gordon, Sebastian Cappelen (GPP) Nate Lashley, Sean O’Hair

Good luck this week! – Antonio D’Arcangelis

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PGA DFS Picks: RSM Classic at Sea Island

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the RSM Classic and helping you find some winning teams!

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PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Stronger field than normal for this venue, 156 golfers total
  • 36-hole Cut: Top 65 and ties
  • Last year: Tyler Duncan (-19: Beat Webb Simpson in playoff)
  • The course: Sea Island Golf Club (St. Simons island, GA)
  • Seaside: Par 70 (7,005 yards); Plantation: Par 72 (7,060)
  • Lots of scoring – rough isn’t penal and winners post low scores
  • Bermuda greens on resort-style courses
  • Rotation: one round at Plantation and the other at Seaside course
  • “Sea Island Mafia” golfers tend to fare well on their home course
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, SG: Putting (Bermuda), Birdie or Better %, SG: Off the Tee, Fairways Gained, Bogey Avoidance, SG: Ball-Striking

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Webb Simpson (DK $11,200) – I’m still interested in massive shares of Webb (the runaway #1 in my models) for GPPs – even though he’s bound to get popular. I made that mistake last week with DJ (where I ended up fading instead of doubling the field ownership) and I’m not doing it this week at a tournament where he’s dominated. Simpson has been playing well, and we can differentiate our lineups elsewhere with salary surplus and other more low-owned golfers. I’m locking him in in all formats.

Russell Henley (DK $10,100) – It’s easy to forget about Henley (I almost just did) even though he’s had success at Sea Island (with three straight top 10s) and has played well since the restart (9-for-9 with four top 10). He’s also tops in the field for SG:APP, our No. 1 focus stat.

Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $9,900) – This course seems to be well suited for Fitzpatrick’s game, though it’s the first time he’s played here. He’s going to hit fairways, make putts and score in the 60s in all four rounds. Maybe he’ll even win and then join the Sea Island Mafia.

Also consider: Tyrrell Hatton, Sungjae Im, Tommy Fleetwood, Harris English

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Brian Harman (DK $8,500) – I like how Harman is trending from a safety perspective (top 30 finishes ion four straight, and 11 straight made cuts) and he’s a Sea Island resident with a T4 and a T14 at the RSM Classic. At this price, he’s got excellent top 10 upside.

Sebastian Munoz (DK $9,100) – Munoz, who finished third at the RSM last year, is playing pretty sharp golf right now. After finishing T8 in the 2020 FedExCup, he’s only made six straight cuts with four top 25s and a T19 at the Masters last week.

Kevin Kisner (DK $8,600) – He loves the venue and feels like an excellent value in this mid-range. He could be a solid core player in cash games or even single- entry GPP.

Mackenzie Hughes (DK $8,100) – Hughes is a little riskier than some of the other guys at this price point, but he won the RSM in 2016 and we know how hot this birdie-maker can get with the flatstick.

Talor Gooch (DK $7,900) – Based on the models, Gooch doesn’t do one thing particularly well, but he’s excellent across the board and finished T23 here last season, so he’ll make some of my GPP builds.

C.T. Pan (DK $7,900) – Perhaps the ultimate GPP play, Pan finished T7 at the Masters last week and has mixed in a T6 with a T13 (in 2016 & ’17) and a MC (2018) at the RSM. Driver isn’t a huge factor here and the price is very affordable.

Denny McCarthy (DK $7,700) – Don’t look his way in cash games, but feel free to deploy one of the tour’s best putters in tournaments. He stumbled out of the gate last year with a 71 on the Plantation course (but led the field in SG: P) en route to a T8 finish.

Also consider: Louis Oosthuizen, Corey Conners, Jason Kokrak (GPP), Ian Poulter, Doc Redman (GPP), Zach Johnson, Matthew Wallace, Alex Noren (GPP)

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Austin Cook (DK $7,500) – I love this $7-8K price range and Cook headlines the value group right in the middle of it. He’s won here (2017), he’s 3-for-3 in made cuts and the podcast guys love him.

Chez Reavie (DK $7,500) – Reavie hits fairways and peppers flagsticks, though his scoring has been a little lackluster since a T3 at the Safeway in September. The T29 at Augusta should give him confidence.

Harold Varner III (DK $7,400) – Varner is on the short list of guys under $7,500 who could notch a win here, and he’ll be out to prove something after not qualifying for the Masters last week.

J.T. Poston (DK $7,300) – After three straight missed cuts at the RSM, Poston finished T14 last season and could be a low-owned GPP play with enough upside to make 2/10 of my linueps.

Henrik Norlander (DK $7,100) – Norlander will be off most people’s radar, but he’s popping in my mixed models (second overall) and I’m going to have massive shares compared to the field. Norlander withdrew on Wednesday after testing positive for COVID-19.

Matthew NeSmith (DK $7,000) – He’s generating chatter among the WinDaily staff, is third in SG:APP in the field and finished T14 in his debut here last season. Good enough for me to use him in GPPs.

Patton Kizzire (DK $6,800) – A brilliant putter who I rode to some solid finishes in the Shriners and at the Houston Open, Kizzire is still very cheap and has struck the ball well lately.

Lucas Glover (DK $6,800) – He let me down at the Masters and cost me a decent chunk of change by relegating a few of my would be 6/6 lineups into also-rans, but I’ll try again since he’s 3-for-3 at the RSM with a T6 in 2015 and T11 in 2018.

More value golfers to consider: Joel Dahmen, Matt Kuchar, Cameron Tringale, Emiliano Grillo, Tyler Duncan, Harry Higgs, Patrick Rodgers (GPP), Tom Hoge (GPP), David Hearn

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Hudson Swafford (DK $6,400) – Swafford is a member of the Sea Island Mafia and won as recently as the Corales in September. He’s just the type of sub-$7K player I want to target in GPPs to leave a few bucks on the table when I have a little over $7K to spend.

Vaughn Taylor (DK $6,400) –He’s notched two Top 10s in three years at the RSM but missed cuts in eight of his last nine tournaments will scare off the masses. A punt play for sure, but not without a “course horse” narrative.

Additional punts: Nick Watney, Chase Seifert, Jonathan Byrd, Jamie Lovemark

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PGA DFS Picks: Vivint Houston Open

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at Vivint Houston open and helping you find some winning teams!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Full field of 132 Golfers – not many big names
  • Cut: Top 65 and ties
  • Last year: Lanto Griffin (-14 at different venue: Golf Club of Houston)
  • The course: Memorial Park GC (Houston, TX – Tom Doak redesign)
    • Par 72: 7,432 yards
    • Bermuda greens
    • Brooks Koepka helped with redesign as PGA player consultant
    • Parkland – grass slopes and contours make it similar to Augusta
    • Second-shot course favoring accuracy/proximity
    • Five Par 5s, Five Par 3s
    • No course history
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, Birdie or Better %, SG: Off the Tee, SG: Putting (Bermuda), GIR

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Dustin Johnson (DK $11,500) – If we’re taking a bombers and birdie-makers approach this week (SG:OTT and BoB% are two of our focus stats), we’ve got to like DJ in this prep for Augusta even though his game has been a bit unpredictable the past year. He’s the field favorite and a guy who can separate himself quickly from the field – in either direction.

Tony Finau (DK $10,900) – The course layout and design sets up well for a player like Finau, who’s been pretty consistent as a Top 10-type golfer but has lacked the ability to close. This could be the week he finally breaks through with another PGA Tour win.

Viktor Hovland (DK $9,800) – Any course with this many Par 5s should benefit Hovland, who’s excellent off the tee and seems to have worked out some of his late-summer struggles. He also provides a modest discount from the top few golfers.

Scottie Scheffler (DK $9,600) – The Texas native’s stats off the tee and overall ball-striking have been elite this season, so most of how he finishes depends on his putter. There’s not a course he can’t manage, but the price among the top tier of golfers could keep some folks away – making him a solid GPP play.

Also consider: Brooks Koepka (GPP), Tyrrell Hatton (cash)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Sungjae Im (DK $9,300) – Another golfer with the game to flourish on this course, Im excels on Bermuda surfaces and is the ultimate grinder. If he can make some birdies this week and build some early momentum, he’ll be hard to keep out of the Top 15.

Adam Scott (DK $9,100) – Normally I’d consider Scott a better play in cash games and single-entry GPPs, but he’s making his return from a positive COVID-19 diagnosis and is more of a risk to miss the cut than usual.

Zach Johnson (DK $8,600) – I’m always surprised how well Zach Johnson fares on longer courses, and this week is another such venue. There may be better value plays out there, but Johnson’s upside and cut-making consistency are undeniable.

Brian Harman (DK $8,500) – Harman projects similarly to ZJ in this price range and has venue been more consistent this season, with eight straight finishes among the Top 40 and a neverending slew of made cuts. He makes for a fine cash game play.

Cameron Davis (DK $8,100) – Consider Davis a poor man’s Dustin Johnson, as he make a ton of birdies and can move the ball off the peg with the best of them. There’s oodles of value in Davis this week, though I imagine he’ll get popular at right around $8K.

Lee Westwood (DK $7,800) – Westwood has resurrected his career with some remarkably steady play this season on the European tour, and he finished T13 at the U.S. Open. I could see Westwood playing well the next couple weeks and smashing value at this bargain price.

Wyndham Clark (DK $7,700) – Last week’s playoff loss to Brian Gay may haunt him, but Clark is a dynamic golfer who is playing well and fits the profile for this course. Now’s the time to stay aboard the ship – though we know it can go bad quickly for Wyndham and his bomb-and-gouge approach.

Also consider:  Russell Henley (cash), Jason Day (GPP), Lanto Griffin, Doc Redman, James Hahn (GPP), Stewart Cink, Denny McCarthy (GPP), Erik Van Rooyen, Mackenzie Hughes

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Sam Burns (DK $7,500) – Continuing with our theme of bombers and birdie-makers, I present the inimitable Sam Burns, who misses a cut once in a while but has Top 10 upside on a course like this. A worthwhile GPP play at a bargain price.

Aaron Wise (DK $7,400) – Speaking of cuts, we’ve seen Wise miss the weekend five times over his last nine tournaments, so I can’t advocate for him in cash games and might steer clear in single-entry. But if he can get in the Top 65 by Friday night, he’s a solid GPP option with Top 10 upside.

Adam Schenk (DK $7,100) – Schenk is a consistent player tee-to-green who makes for a fine cash game play at just $7,100, but he may be worth considering in all formats on a course that rewards his strength stats – SG on Par 5s and BoB%.

Sepp Straka (DK $7,000) – The price for Straka this week is just way too low given how well he’s capable of playing. The scoring opportunities should be there this week for the Austrian, who can get red hot with the putter.

Matthew NeSmith (DK $7,000) – NeSmith is another guy who can go low when the putter catches fire, but the price reflects his inconsistent play. With three straight made cuts and an October Top 10 at the Shriners (T8), he’s on my radar this week.

Maverick McNealy (DK $6,900) – Looking for “birdies in bunches” this week could lead you to consider McNealy, who excels on Bermuda. I’ll have shares in GPPs.

Max Homa (DK $6,800) – I’ve had a hard time handicapping Homa this season, but he’s got the tee game to compete in this field and the price is way too low given his GPP upside.

More value golfers to consider: Keegan Bradley (GPP), Luke List, Beau Hossler, Scott Stallings, Austin Cook (GPP), Tom Hoge, Charles Schwartzel (GPP), Troy Merritt (GPP)

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Xinjun Zhang (DK $6,500) – He’s disappointed in his past two events, but Xinjun Zhang played well in Houston last season (T4), and the cheap price could make him a solid play despite the different venue.

Patton Kizzire (DK $6,400) –Kizzire struggles with accuracy off the tee, but he’s a solid putter who could easily make value if he can hit some fairways this week. I’ll take a shot in a few large-field GPPs.

Keith Mitchell (DK $6,200) – I know Keith Mitchell is bad, but he’s usually pretty good off the tee (the last few tourneys notwithstanding) and he can putt. For damn near minimum salary we can use him in some “studs and scrubs” GPP lineups.

Additional punts: Hudson Swafford (GPP), Justin Harding, Will Gordon, John Huh, Bronson Burgoon (GPP)

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PGA DFS Picks: Bermuda Championship

Steven Polardi
written by Steven Polardi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at Bermuda Championship and helping you find some winning teams!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Weak field of 132 Golfers – not many big names
  • Cut: Top 65 and ties
  • Last year: Brendan Todd (-24) won over Harry Higgs (-20)
  • The course: Port Royal GC (Southampton, Bermuda) – Robert Trent Jones design
    • Par 71: 6,828 yards (varies based on tees/pins)
    • Bermuda greens
    • Shorter coastal resort course with eight Par 4s under 415 – wedge play will be a factor
    • Course comps: Corales Puntacana, Sony Open, RSM Classic and Mayakoba
    • Wind and weather should also factor (wind gusts setting in by Friday morning)
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, Birdie or Better %, Fairways Gained, SG: Putting (Bermuda), GIR, Par 4s (350-400)

I’m going to keep the blurbs brief and to the point. I’ve plugged in some data into the mixed models and there’s a few GPP plays that really stand out this week.

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Brendan Todd (DK $11,100) – The defending champ arrives in relatively poor form over the last couple of weeks, but he did drop a huge weight on his toe before the CJ CUP. But he should be better now and shot a final round 62 here last year in his dominant breakthrough win.

Will Zalatoris (DK $10,900) – He’s got three Top 10s in his last three events, including a MC at the Sanderson Farms and a T8 at a similar coastal course in Corales Puntacana. It’s going to come down to his putting this weekend.

Harold Varner III (DK $10,700) – Varner is one of the best all-around players in the field and is a legit contender to notch his maiden win this week. I’ll be rooting for him.

Denny McCarthy (DK $9,500) – A great putter who has seen his ball striking improve recently, McCarthy is a solid Top 10 candidate and should fare well on this layout where putting is a major factor.

Also consider: Doc Redman, Charley Hoffman

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Henrik Stenson (DK $9,300) – He’s tops in the WinDaily projections and comes in at an affordable price. There aren’t too many major winners in this field, but Stenson has the resumé and game to win here.

Kristoffer Ventura (DK $9,100) – Since the restart, the Mexican-born Norwegian (who attended Oklahoma Stat) has been quite solid, with four top 10s among seven top 25s in a combined 12 starts on the Korn Ferry and PGA tours. He’s one of the best options in the field.

Peter Malnati (DK $9,000) – Malnati finished second at the Sanderson Farms and notched a top 5 at the Shriners behind elite putting and passable ball-striking. He might take to this shorter course as well.

Henrik Norlander (DK $8,900) – Top-notch ball striking and consistent play (outside of a bad August-September stretch marred by a couple of bad rounds and three straight MCs) get Norlander a look this week. Not my favorite play, but a solid option for under $9K.

Justin Suh (DK $8,700) – The 55-1 odds on Suh to win are a little too long considering his talent and iron play. He’s finished T21-T14-T8 in his last three starts and will be a staple of my GPP lineups.

Wes Bryan (DK $7,800) – With less-than-driver an option off the tee on this shorter layout, Bryan is definitely in play in all formats and is a huge bargain this week.

Also consider:  Cameron Tringale (GPP), Aaron Wise, Adam Schenk, Pat Perez, Stewart Cink, Patrick Rodgers, Russell Knox (GPP)

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Tom Lewis (DK $7,500) – Lewis was playing much better golf in July, but he’s got the pedigree to perform well at this venue and is one of the more talented players who could go overlooked in this field.

Tyler McCumber (DK $7,200) – McCumber had a nice little hot stretch at the end of September with a solo second at the Corales and a T6 at the Sanderson Farms, making him viable option in the value range at Bermuda.

Hudson Swafford (DK $7,200) – Swafford is a notable value with monster upside in this price range; he won at the Corales last month and makes birdies in bunches.

Hank Lebioda (DK $6,800) – Lebioda finished T3 here last season and seems to prefer coastal resort courses, finishing T21 at Corales.

More value golfers to consider: Max Homa, Rob Oppenheim, Brice Garnett (GPP), Kramer Hickok, Kelly Kraft (GPP)

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Robert Streb (DK $6,500) – Streb is my favorite value at $6,500 or under, but this price range isn’t a very promising one. I’d max out at 2/10 GPP entries.

Sang-Moon Bae (DK $6,400) – Bae may offer the most upside, but he’s far from a cash game play. If I only have $6,400 left after clicking in my other five, Bae will get a hard look.

Additional punts: John Oda, Ricky Barnes, Brian Gay (GPP)

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